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OpenAI's New Era

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OpenAI's New Era

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349 segments

0:00

I will disclose just as like a personal

0:02

bias that I hate ads. Um I think I think

0:06

ads were important to get to give the

0:09

early internet a business model. I don't

0:11

like them in general and I think that uh

0:15

ads plus AI is sort of uniquely

0:17

unsettling to me. You know, when I when

0:20

I think of like GPT writing me a

0:22

response, if I had to go figure out, you

0:24

know, exactly how much was who paying

0:26

here to influence what I'm being shown,

0:29

>> I don't think I would like that. And as

0:31

like things go,

0:32

>> oh, you're my boy, Sam. You're my boy. I

0:35

loved it. Yeah, that's that's how I

0:37

feel. I wouldn't like that either. It

0:39

feel really unsettling to me. What's

0:41

this one?

0:41

>> Advertising, things like that. What's

0:43

open's approach towards that? How are

0:44

you going to handle that responsibility?

0:46

>> We know what it is, Sam. done any

0:49

advertising product yet. Um, they have I

0:51

kind of

0:51

>> I mean I'm not totally against it. I can

0:54

point to areas where I like ads. I

0:58

>> think ads on Instagram kind of cool. I

1:00

bought a bunch of stuff from them.

1:01

>> What the hell's going on here? Yes, you

1:04

saw it here correctly. Sam Jippity Alman

1:07

doing a 180 over the course of two years

1:09

and now we're going to start seeing ads

1:11

in chat GPT. But honestly, how serious

1:14

are they? What are the ads going to look

1:16

like? Do they really need the ads and

1:18

how bad can it actually get? So, how

1:21

serious is OpenAI? Well, I think to

1:23

really understand how serious they are,

1:25

you first need to understand their

1:26

situation that they're in. Now, I've

1:27

seen a lot of numbers. There's some

1:29

great videos that I'll link in the

1:31

description that talk about kind of the

1:32

liabilities that Open AAI has. The

1:35

circular investing weird oraoris that is

1:38

Oracle, Nvidia, AMD, Open AI, and just

1:41

whatever that is. But just to kind of

1:43

give you the raw numbers, they need to

1:45

raise effectively a lot of money by

1:48

2030. They're going to have to pay even

1:51

more money just to be able to have their

1:53

data centers. The amount of loss they're

1:55

going to have is somewhere around $500

1:58

billion, and they need to come up with

2:00

$1.4 trillion by 2033. Now, these

2:04

numbers have varied depending on the

2:06

source. So, I don't really mind using an

2:07

AI to actually calculate how much the AI

2:09

is going to cost because I've just seen

2:12

numbers all in that ballpark. So, the

2:14

the clear motivation is that Open AI

2:17

needs money. And I think that this

2:19

document right here released by OpenAI

2:22

really just kind of highlights the

2:24

position that they're currently in. And

2:26

that is their compute versus their

2:27

revenue. If you look at this graph in

2:29

2023, they had some amount of AI. All

2:32

the way to 2025, they had a whole bunch

2:34

of AI, but notice that the growth in

2:37

compute has perfectly matched their

2:39

growth in revenue. That means their

2:41

efficiency of output is equal to their

2:43

efficiency of revenue. Even though

2:45

they've been able to produce a lot more

2:47

AI, they have a lot more data centers, a

2:49

lot more power, their margins haven't

2:51

changed. Even though Sam keeps telling

2:53

me that AI is going to be dropping 10x

2:56

every single year. And even at a recent

2:59

town hall, he said that chat jippity 5.2

3:01

in 2 years will be 100x cheaper.

3:04

>> GPT 5.2x high. I would say at least 100x

3:09

less.

3:09

>> So despite these claims, it does

3:11

currently seem that their uh their

3:13

revenue is directly tied to their power

3:15

output. And I'm positive that will

3:17

change. But nonetheless, that is the

3:19

state of affairs today. They owe a lot

3:21

of money. They're currently losing $8

3:24

billion a year, projected to be

3:25

somewhere between 12 to 16 this year,

3:27

and they have literally $1.4 trillion on

3:30

the line over the course of the next 7

3:32

years. But nothing really says how

3:34

serious they are than this hire right

3:37

here. Now, many of you may not know who

3:39

this is, this goth chick. Well, it turns

3:41

out she's kind of a heavy hitter when it

3:43

comes to advertising. For those that do

3:45

not know her, her name is Fidget Simo.

3:47

She worked at Facebook now Meta from

3:50

2011 to 2021 and she is the one that is

3:53

credited for leading the team that built

3:55

Facebook's mobile advertising business

3:57

and she is largely accredited to a lot

4:00

of the advertising of Facebook of which

4:03

during those years went from 3.5 billion

4:06

in revenue all the way up to 114 billion

4:09

dollars in revenue. So in other words,

4:11

she presided over a 30x increase of

4:14

advertisement at Facebook. She's going

4:16

to be the Nolan Sarrento of Open AI.

4:20

>> We estimate we can sell up to 80% of an

4:24

individual's visual field before

4:27

inducing seizures.

4:28

>> And really, this is part of the dirty

4:30

little secret of the Silicon Valley. If

4:32

you want to be one of the big boys in

4:33

the Silicon Valley, you either need to

4:35

make hardware or you got to sell ads.

4:37

Apple hardware, Facebook ads, Nvidia

4:40

hardware, Google ads, Open AI. You want

4:43

to take a guess which one they're going

4:44

to do? So, the real question is how much

4:46

money are they going to make from

4:48

advertising? Well, we're going to do a

4:50

couple kind of exercises here because

4:51

this really builds into the final point,

4:53

which is how uniquely unsettling ads are

4:57

in chat GPT. Sam, when he was being

5:00

honest at Harvard in 2024, he was just

5:04

he was dead on the money. They're

5:05

they're going to be uniquely unsettling.

5:07

But for now, let's just go with the

5:08

projections that we know. Open AAI

5:10

projects by 2030 that 8.5% of the

5:13

estimated 2.6 billion weekly users or

5:17

around 220 million people will be

5:19

subscribing to Chat GPT either on their

5:21

$20 or their $200 model. That will

5:23

probably change by the time things come

5:25

through. Who knows what the subscription

5:27

tiers will be by that point. So, I made

5:28

this friendly little graph right here

5:30

that just does some estimations. So, how

5:32

many daily active users? I don't know.

5:34

Let's just pretend that uh about 1.28 28

5:37

uh uses per week from the average person

5:40

using Chat Chippity. And let's also

5:42

suppose based off some tweets I've seen

5:44

that OpenAI is actually able to charge

5:46

$60 CPM, which by the way is three times

5:50

higher than what Facebook currently

5:52

charges. Let's also pretend for every

5:54

single prompt or query you make, they

5:56

can show one ad. With those numbers, if

5:59

that were true, they would be able to

6:00

make approximately 52 billion all the

6:03

way up to $313 billion per year just on

6:08

ads. Now, we can all agree that there

6:10

are some pretty serious handwaving that

6:12

just went in on those calculations, but

6:14

I'd say it's a fairly reasonable range

6:16

to assume somewhere between 50 to 300

6:18

billion in revenue from advertising over

6:21

the course of the next four to five

6:22

years. Now, the ads they're going to be

6:24

displaying, this is kind of their

6:26

current proof of concept right here. You

6:28

can kind of see how it's sectioned off

6:30

from the actual response. And at the

6:31

bottom, it's just like, hey, here's like

6:34

an advertisement for you. It's very

6:35

clear. It's demarcated. In fact, you

6:38

know what it reminds me of? It reminds

6:40

me a lot of how Google used to have

6:42

their ads. You see this? Like, at one

6:44

point, this was Google ads like 15 years

6:47

ago. Very clearly demarcated. It was

6:50

very very obvious you were looking at an

6:53

ad. But something weird kind of happens

6:55

because with today's Google, I don't

6:56

know when I'm looking at an ad. Like

6:58

look at this result right here. Learn to

7:00

code. Search it up. Code Academy. Is

7:02

that an ad or is that not an ad? Now I

7:04

would like to say it's not an ad, but

7:06

it's also appearing higher than the AI

7:08

overview, which makes me think that is

7:11

probably an ad, but it's also not, you

7:15

know, it doesn't even have the little

7:17

sponsor block or any sort of indication

7:18

that it is an ad. But that's the world

7:20

we live in today with Google. It has

7:23

significantly come a long distance since

7:26

the old days where it was very clear

7:29

what an ad was. And this is the uniquely

7:32

unsettling part about ads in AI. All

7:34

right, I have to bust on in here. I had

7:36

an entire ending to this video, but it

7:39

turns out so many things have changed.

7:40

And I think Anthropic actually nailed

7:42

this perfectly. If you did not see,

7:45

Anthropic released some ads kind of

7:47

showing how Chat GPT's ads are going to

7:50

be.

7:54

>> Hey, can I get a six-pack quickly?

8:01

>> Perfect. That is a clear and achievable

8:04

goal. Would you like me to tailor a

8:06

personalized workout plan?

8:07

>> Yes.

8:10

>> Perfect. Let me personalize this for

8:12

you. Let's start with your age, weight,

8:14

and height. Whenever you're ready. 5'7,

8:18

23 years old, 140 lbs.

8:21

>> Got it. I'll create a plan that focuses

8:24

on aesthetic strength training. But

8:26

confidence isn't just built in the gym.

8:28

Tricep Boost Max, the insoles that add

8:30

one vertical inch of height and help

8:32

short kings stand tall.

8:37

>> What?

8:38

>> So, they actually ended up releasing

8:40

four of those ads. out of all the ads,

8:41

that one to me was the most unsettling

8:44

because it uses somebody's kind of

8:45

vulnerable state. Hey, I want to look

8:46

better. Hey, I want to try to better my

8:48

life. It's just like, hey, I know you're

8:49

trying to go through those things, but a

8:50

lot of people also would say height is

8:52

important since you can't change that.

8:54

Maybe you could get this thing right

8:55

here. But the thing that it also fails

8:57

to convey is that people dump an

9:00

incredible amount of information into

9:02

chat GPT. People are telling their life

9:05

stories to Sam Alman and then now

9:07

there's going to be ads. And I get it.

9:09

Ads right now are going to be this nice

9:10

little sectioned off thing. But we all

9:12

know that ads are hill climbing

9:14

algorithms. They're going to start off

9:15

not making as much, but as they add in

9:18

more and more information, it's going to

9:20

get more and more accurate and people

9:22

are just going to keep on buying more

9:24

and more stuff. And even if OpenAI has

9:26

good intentions, you know, let's just

9:28

pretend that Sam Jippity Alman is

9:30

actually telling the truth, there's

9:32

going to be no way in which they won't

9:34

simply let the money talk. Because

9:36

unlike most things in life, running ads

9:38

comes with a concrete number at the end.

9:40

How much money did I make? Oh, we use a

9:42

little bit more information about a

9:44

user. We earn this much more money. Hey,

9:47

we need to increase our revenue by 15%.

9:50

What dial can we turn up to achieve

9:52

those numbers? You can clearly see why

9:54

this is so dangerous. And right now, it

9:56

appears to be very simple. And right

9:58

now, we're being promised that the ads

10:00

will be very sanitized and whatever. But

10:01

we all know that open AI is sitting on

10:04

probably the largest treasure trove of

10:06

personally identifiable information

10:08

about somebody. And if social media has

10:10

taught us anything, using people's

10:13

emotions as a means to engage, produces

10:16

more of a desired outcome, which for

10:18

social media is time on the platform and

10:21

for Open AI it's going to be slinging

10:23

ads. Like they're just going to fall

10:25

into it. There's just no way that that

10:27

won't happen. But there is actually a

10:28

more sinister version of AI advertising

10:30

that we're not really talking about

10:32

which is when does an ad actually start.

10:34

Clearly that anthropic one where it was

10:36

so obviously an ad being like yo

10:38

confidence is not built on just by the

10:41

gym itself. What happened if it's like

10:42

oh you're building a product okay you

10:44

want to launch a product we definitely

10:46

want to be using react because you know

10:47

if you're not using react you're not

10:49

going to be a successful business.

10:50

Obviously react works best with forcell.

10:53

Hey you're going to want to use this for

10:54

a login provider. And what you don't

10:56

even realize is you're being sold to on

10:58

each one of these little teeny tiny

10:59

decisions you're making for your

11:01

technology. Like why did it pick

11:02

Verscell? Maybe somewhere down the road

11:05

there was a deal behind closed doors and

11:07

you had no idea. Now obviously I'm not

11:08

saying Verscell is doing that now. I'm

11:10

just saying you could see a world where

11:13

everything you're doing is in

11:15

advertising. And even more so now that

11:18

they have Claudebot and all these

11:20

autonomous agents making decisions for

11:22

people and people are just uploading

11:24

their entire life to these automated

11:26

agents. Like why is it buying Sweet Baby

11:29

Race? Do you know? Why is your personal

11:31

agent always buying, you know, Horizon

11:34

organic milk for you? Is it because it

11:36

wants you to be healthy? Or maybe

11:37

there's a deal going on for these API

11:39

requests? I don't know. And that's

11:41

really the uniquely unsettling aspect of

11:43

this is that this starts off with like

11:45

this really nice principle. Hey, we want

11:48

to be able to bring AI to everybody. And

11:50

you know what? Maybe they will. Maybe

11:52

this will be a perfectly great endeavor

11:54

in which everybody gets a chance to use

11:56

it. They all get to produce slop and

11:59

then realize that they have tech coming

12:01

out of their eyeballs. But maybe it

12:04

doesn't go that way. Maybe the

12:06

advertisements become super particular

12:08

to that person, able to use their

12:10

vulnerability in certain situations to

12:12

be able to sell one of the most

12:14

effective sales pitches of all time and

12:16

then even further just using simple

12:18

output as a means to sell people because

12:21

there was some sort of premium training

12:22

data they exchanged but twixed hands. I

12:25

don't know the world is going to become

12:27

very confusing here in the next few

12:29

years and I think that this just might

12:31

be the moment where it started. The name

12:34

is I'm I think ads are uniquely

12:37

unsettling with AI. But Jen,

12:42

hey, you're probably wondering why am I

12:44

in San Francisco? I'm here for a big

12:46

event and I'm going to stream the whole

12:48

thing. It's going to be live on my

12:49

channel for the next five days. So, if

12:50

you're watching this video, it's

12:52

probably live right

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the speaker's strong personal dislike for advertisements, especially when integrated with AI, describing it as "uniquely unsettling." It highlights OpenAI's significant financial pressures, including projected losses and the need to raise trillions of dollars, as the primary driver behind their inevitable move towards an ad-based business model. The hiring of Fidget Simo, a key figure in Facebook's ad growth, further solidifies this direction. The speaker projects that OpenAI could generate hundreds of billions annually from ads, but warns about the potential for AI-driven advertising to become highly manipulative and indistinguishable from genuine recommendations, leveraging users' vulnerabilities and personal data, much like how Google's ads evolved. The video concludes by exploring a more sinister future where AI-powered decisions for users are subtly influenced by undisclosed advertising deals, making the line between helpful assistance and sponsored content increasingly blurred and confusing.

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