OpenAI's New Era
349 segments
I will disclose just as like a personal
bias that I hate ads. Um I think I think
ads were important to get to give the
early internet a business model. I don't
like them in general and I think that uh
ads plus AI is sort of uniquely
unsettling to me. You know, when I when
I think of like GPT writing me a
response, if I had to go figure out, you
know, exactly how much was who paying
here to influence what I'm being shown,
>> I don't think I would like that. And as
like things go,
>> oh, you're my boy, Sam. You're my boy. I
loved it. Yeah, that's that's how I
feel. I wouldn't like that either. It
feel really unsettling to me. What's
this one?
>> Advertising, things like that. What's
open's approach towards that? How are
you going to handle that responsibility?
>> We know what it is, Sam. done any
advertising product yet. Um, they have I
kind of
>> I mean I'm not totally against it. I can
point to areas where I like ads. I
>> think ads on Instagram kind of cool. I
bought a bunch of stuff from them.
>> What the hell's going on here? Yes, you
saw it here correctly. Sam Jippity Alman
doing a 180 over the course of two years
and now we're going to start seeing ads
in chat GPT. But honestly, how serious
are they? What are the ads going to look
like? Do they really need the ads and
how bad can it actually get? So, how
serious is OpenAI? Well, I think to
really understand how serious they are,
you first need to understand their
situation that they're in. Now, I've
seen a lot of numbers. There's some
great videos that I'll link in the
description that talk about kind of the
liabilities that Open AAI has. The
circular investing weird oraoris that is
Oracle, Nvidia, AMD, Open AI, and just
whatever that is. But just to kind of
give you the raw numbers, they need to
raise effectively a lot of money by
2030. They're going to have to pay even
more money just to be able to have their
data centers. The amount of loss they're
going to have is somewhere around $500
billion, and they need to come up with
$1.4 trillion by 2033. Now, these
numbers have varied depending on the
source. So, I don't really mind using an
AI to actually calculate how much the AI
is going to cost because I've just seen
numbers all in that ballpark. So, the
the clear motivation is that Open AI
needs money. And I think that this
document right here released by OpenAI
really just kind of highlights the
position that they're currently in. And
that is their compute versus their
revenue. If you look at this graph in
2023, they had some amount of AI. All
the way to 2025, they had a whole bunch
of AI, but notice that the growth in
compute has perfectly matched their
growth in revenue. That means their
efficiency of output is equal to their
efficiency of revenue. Even though
they've been able to produce a lot more
AI, they have a lot more data centers, a
lot more power, their margins haven't
changed. Even though Sam keeps telling
me that AI is going to be dropping 10x
every single year. And even at a recent
town hall, he said that chat jippity 5.2
in 2 years will be 100x cheaper.
>> GPT 5.2x high. I would say at least 100x
less.
>> So despite these claims, it does
currently seem that their uh their
revenue is directly tied to their power
output. And I'm positive that will
change. But nonetheless, that is the
state of affairs today. They owe a lot
of money. They're currently losing $8
billion a year, projected to be
somewhere between 12 to 16 this year,
and they have literally $1.4 trillion on
the line over the course of the next 7
years. But nothing really says how
serious they are than this hire right
here. Now, many of you may not know who
this is, this goth chick. Well, it turns
out she's kind of a heavy hitter when it
comes to advertising. For those that do
not know her, her name is Fidget Simo.
She worked at Facebook now Meta from
2011 to 2021 and she is the one that is
credited for leading the team that built
Facebook's mobile advertising business
and she is largely accredited to a lot
of the advertising of Facebook of which
during those years went from 3.5 billion
in revenue all the way up to 114 billion
dollars in revenue. So in other words,
she presided over a 30x increase of
advertisement at Facebook. She's going
to be the Nolan Sarrento of Open AI.
>> We estimate we can sell up to 80% of an
individual's visual field before
inducing seizures.
>> And really, this is part of the dirty
little secret of the Silicon Valley. If
you want to be one of the big boys in
the Silicon Valley, you either need to
make hardware or you got to sell ads.
Apple hardware, Facebook ads, Nvidia
hardware, Google ads, Open AI. You want
to take a guess which one they're going
to do? So, the real question is how much
money are they going to make from
advertising? Well, we're going to do a
couple kind of exercises here because
this really builds into the final point,
which is how uniquely unsettling ads are
in chat GPT. Sam, when he was being
honest at Harvard in 2024, he was just
he was dead on the money. They're
they're going to be uniquely unsettling.
But for now, let's just go with the
projections that we know. Open AAI
projects by 2030 that 8.5% of the
estimated 2.6 billion weekly users or
around 220 million people will be
subscribing to Chat GPT either on their
$20 or their $200 model. That will
probably change by the time things come
through. Who knows what the subscription
tiers will be by that point. So, I made
this friendly little graph right here
that just does some estimations. So, how
many daily active users? I don't know.
Let's just pretend that uh about 1.28 28
uh uses per week from the average person
using Chat Chippity. And let's also
suppose based off some tweets I've seen
that OpenAI is actually able to charge
$60 CPM, which by the way is three times
higher than what Facebook currently
charges. Let's also pretend for every
single prompt or query you make, they
can show one ad. With those numbers, if
that were true, they would be able to
make approximately 52 billion all the
way up to $313 billion per year just on
ads. Now, we can all agree that there
are some pretty serious handwaving that
just went in on those calculations, but
I'd say it's a fairly reasonable range
to assume somewhere between 50 to 300
billion in revenue from advertising over
the course of the next four to five
years. Now, the ads they're going to be
displaying, this is kind of their
current proof of concept right here. You
can kind of see how it's sectioned off
from the actual response. And at the
bottom, it's just like, hey, here's like
an advertisement for you. It's very
clear. It's demarcated. In fact, you
know what it reminds me of? It reminds
me a lot of how Google used to have
their ads. You see this? Like, at one
point, this was Google ads like 15 years
ago. Very clearly demarcated. It was
very very obvious you were looking at an
ad. But something weird kind of happens
because with today's Google, I don't
know when I'm looking at an ad. Like
look at this result right here. Learn to
code. Search it up. Code Academy. Is
that an ad or is that not an ad? Now I
would like to say it's not an ad, but
it's also appearing higher than the AI
overview, which makes me think that is
probably an ad, but it's also not, you
know, it doesn't even have the little
sponsor block or any sort of indication
that it is an ad. But that's the world
we live in today with Google. It has
significantly come a long distance since
the old days where it was very clear
what an ad was. And this is the uniquely
unsettling part about ads in AI. All
right, I have to bust on in here. I had
an entire ending to this video, but it
turns out so many things have changed.
And I think Anthropic actually nailed
this perfectly. If you did not see,
Anthropic released some ads kind of
showing how Chat GPT's ads are going to
be.
>> Hey, can I get a six-pack quickly?
>> Perfect. That is a clear and achievable
goal. Would you like me to tailor a
personalized workout plan?
>> Yes.
>> Perfect. Let me personalize this for
you. Let's start with your age, weight,
and height. Whenever you're ready. 5'7,
23 years old, 140 lbs.
>> Got it. I'll create a plan that focuses
on aesthetic strength training. But
confidence isn't just built in the gym.
Tricep Boost Max, the insoles that add
one vertical inch of height and help
short kings stand tall.
>> What?
>> So, they actually ended up releasing
four of those ads. out of all the ads,
that one to me was the most unsettling
because it uses somebody's kind of
vulnerable state. Hey, I want to look
better. Hey, I want to try to better my
life. It's just like, hey, I know you're
trying to go through those things, but a
lot of people also would say height is
important since you can't change that.
Maybe you could get this thing right
here. But the thing that it also fails
to convey is that people dump an
incredible amount of information into
chat GPT. People are telling their life
stories to Sam Alman and then now
there's going to be ads. And I get it.
Ads right now are going to be this nice
little sectioned off thing. But we all
know that ads are hill climbing
algorithms. They're going to start off
not making as much, but as they add in
more and more information, it's going to
get more and more accurate and people
are just going to keep on buying more
and more stuff. And even if OpenAI has
good intentions, you know, let's just
pretend that Sam Jippity Alman is
actually telling the truth, there's
going to be no way in which they won't
simply let the money talk. Because
unlike most things in life, running ads
comes with a concrete number at the end.
How much money did I make? Oh, we use a
little bit more information about a
user. We earn this much more money. Hey,
we need to increase our revenue by 15%.
What dial can we turn up to achieve
those numbers? You can clearly see why
this is so dangerous. And right now, it
appears to be very simple. And right
now, we're being promised that the ads
will be very sanitized and whatever. But
we all know that open AI is sitting on
probably the largest treasure trove of
personally identifiable information
about somebody. And if social media has
taught us anything, using people's
emotions as a means to engage, produces
more of a desired outcome, which for
social media is time on the platform and
for Open AI it's going to be slinging
ads. Like they're just going to fall
into it. There's just no way that that
won't happen. But there is actually a
more sinister version of AI advertising
that we're not really talking about
which is when does an ad actually start.
Clearly that anthropic one where it was
so obviously an ad being like yo
confidence is not built on just by the
gym itself. What happened if it's like
oh you're building a product okay you
want to launch a product we definitely
want to be using react because you know
if you're not using react you're not
going to be a successful business.
Obviously react works best with forcell.
Hey you're going to want to use this for
a login provider. And what you don't
even realize is you're being sold to on
each one of these little teeny tiny
decisions you're making for your
technology. Like why did it pick
Verscell? Maybe somewhere down the road
there was a deal behind closed doors and
you had no idea. Now obviously I'm not
saying Verscell is doing that now. I'm
just saying you could see a world where
everything you're doing is in
advertising. And even more so now that
they have Claudebot and all these
autonomous agents making decisions for
people and people are just uploading
their entire life to these automated
agents. Like why is it buying Sweet Baby
Race? Do you know? Why is your personal
agent always buying, you know, Horizon
organic milk for you? Is it because it
wants you to be healthy? Or maybe
there's a deal going on for these API
requests? I don't know. And that's
really the uniquely unsettling aspect of
this is that this starts off with like
this really nice principle. Hey, we want
to be able to bring AI to everybody. And
you know what? Maybe they will. Maybe
this will be a perfectly great endeavor
in which everybody gets a chance to use
it. They all get to produce slop and
then realize that they have tech coming
out of their eyeballs. But maybe it
doesn't go that way. Maybe the
advertisements become super particular
to that person, able to use their
vulnerability in certain situations to
be able to sell one of the most
effective sales pitches of all time and
then even further just using simple
output as a means to sell people because
there was some sort of premium training
data they exchanged but twixed hands. I
don't know the world is going to become
very confusing here in the next few
years and I think that this just might
be the moment where it started. The name
is I'm I think ads are uniquely
unsettling with AI. But Jen,
hey, you're probably wondering why am I
in San Francisco? I'm here for a big
event and I'm going to stream the whole
thing. It's going to be live on my
channel for the next five days. So, if
you're watching this video, it's
probably live right
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the speaker's strong personal dislike for advertisements, especially when integrated with AI, describing it as "uniquely unsettling." It highlights OpenAI's significant financial pressures, including projected losses and the need to raise trillions of dollars, as the primary driver behind their inevitable move towards an ad-based business model. The hiring of Fidget Simo, a key figure in Facebook's ad growth, further solidifies this direction. The speaker projects that OpenAI could generate hundreds of billions annually from ads, but warns about the potential for AI-driven advertising to become highly manipulative and indistinguishable from genuine recommendations, leveraging users' vulnerabilities and personal data, much like how Google's ads evolved. The video concludes by exploring a more sinister future where AI-powered decisions for users are subtly influenced by undisclosed advertising deals, making the line between helpful assistance and sponsored content increasingly blurred and confusing.
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