So a few days ago we had a news here on

X from Kelshi that has now launched an

up or down market. So we can trade now

the 15minute crypto markets across

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana similar to

how we have it on Poly Market. So this

actually creates opportunities to some

kind of an arbitrage. You know, if you

have uh the same markets on Kali and

Poly Market, and if there's like a

mispricing between the outcomes, you

could potentially do some arbitrageing

here and uh make money.

There's another guy here that talks

about something similar where you can do

market arbitrage. So again between poly

market and calcium you find you know uh

markets that are similar or identical in

nature and then you do both sides on the

platforms when the total price is less

than a dollar. So for example as you say

in a perfect efficient world yes price

plus no price equals $1. But then there

will be cases just like we discussed on

a 15-minute market that the yes on

platform A and no on platform B is

actually less than a dollar. If we

monitor both 15-minute markets on, you

know, Poly markets and KI, we could

potentially do some arbitrage here when

the total price of yes no tokens is is

less than a dollar. So that's very

interesting and it's going to be

interesting to see how how this unfolds.

So there's another thing that a lot of

people they are talking about and that's

the bond market on uh on poly market. So

the bonds markets is basically where you

you actually take these very likely

events and it can look a little bit

risky like for example if you see here

he bets a 100,000 to win 101,000. So,

you're actually putting a lot of money

on the line to win. H not a lot, but

there's actually a a good, you know,

idea behind it. Like, if you can

consistently do one or two% on sure

trades, you know, every single day, you

can actually make a lot of money. So,

for example, in in his example, he have

almost 700 APY. And uh you know, that's

that's actually a lot of money in a in a

long term. But I think there's nuances

to it. We really have to understand well

what is actually going on here because

this guy here um a western he have a

good explanation of of how this actually

works. So most people think polyark just

about predicting outcomes and gambling

wrong. The real consistent edge is

mechanics and and one of the cleanest

place is bonding resolved market. So,

this I think is the key word here, a

resolved market

because I've seen other people talk

about taking a sure like these 99% bets

before the market is resolved. And if

you do that, well, then you have these

off chance that it's actually going to

resolve in the opposite end. So you have

these I don't know if you can call it

black swan events but most of the time

yeah you're going to make you know the

1% half a percent maybe then you only

take one really really bad bet to

completely wipe out the the entire

portfolio

but what he is talking about is actually

bonding on the resolved markets so if

you understand how the yuma um oracle

works you can consistently extract ee

and make money off those who don't

understand resolution ions. So how the

resolution works each poly market is

finalized based on a oracle resolution

where um Oracle verify the proposal for

the markets to finalize

the flow and outcome is proposed.

Challenge window is open. Somebody can

dispute the proposed outcome by paying a

bond.

UMA tokens hold a vote on the truth the

determined outcome and outcome can be

challenged 2x. If two challenges are

unsuccessful, the market is fully

resolved. So how it actually works? The

bonding alpha when the market is in

review, it is being reviewed by the

Oracle before fully completing as yes or

no. Clicking in review will take you to

the Oracle page. So here we can see the

example it's 100% but yes it's 99.9.

So I I suppose the idea here is you

basically collect you know one 0.1%

but buying yes and it also depends on if

you have the you you need to have

liquidity right to be able to buy. Yes.

So it's for the people that don't want

to wait for it to be resolved. The alpha

is that a market can be resolved on um

while remaining in review on poly

market. The gap in time of umema

resolving and poly market resolving is

where the money is made. Once has

finalized an outcome, the probability of

reversal is zero but price often lags

because users don't understand your main

mechanics. Users want liquidity

immediately. They don't want to wait for

full resolution. people wait for poly

market to resolve and opposed

people wait for poly market to resolve

as opposed to um so I mean yeah that

makes sense if there's a lack between

the oracle and then poly market actually

resolving the the the event then you

know for sure that yeah it is resolved

we're just waiting for poly market to

sort of you know market as resolved and

then there's potentially a you know an

opportunity to to scrape you know very

little money but you know from from from

this seems like it's like 100%. So it

for sure it's interesting and it's uh

you know it's it's something you

probably don't want to do manually. You

definitely want to create like an

automated bot that does this

automatically. So how profitable is this

if the reward rewards are so small? It's

one of the most profitable strategies on

polar market in my opinion in his

opinion as 0.1 return on $1,000 is $1

per bond at 99.9.

Imagine do this once a day. That's $365

per year using $1,000. So that's a 36.5%

APY,

which is yeah, that's, you know, that's

that's re that's very good. You know, if

you can do this consistently and with no

risk. So like we really have to

emphasize here that we need to make sure

that it can never resolve to the

opposite end. So we need to make sure

that it is resolved. just waiting for

like Poly Market to basically, you know,

click a button or something like that.

And another thing about it is, yeah,

then you also need a lot of capital

because, yeah, $1,000, yep, you can do a

decent amount per per year, but, you

know, it's not going to grow

exponentially as we see other traders

do. You probably need a lot of money to

to really capitalize on this. Here's

another example of a guy that does uh he

did two bonds yesterday at 0.1% profit

each. It gives me 0.2% 2% in one day. So

for this guy, 73% APR here. He won

$14,000

with a bet of $13,986.

So that's, you know, that's pretty crazy

to think about. He bet almost $14,000

to win $14.

So 14 divided by 13

986.

So yeah, that is 0.1%.

I mean, it sounds crazy and it kind of

looks crazy that you put so much on the

line

and you probably did do not want to do

this if it's not 100% sure. Like even if

there's the slightest chance this not

working, it's not worth it because just

one of these bets that resolves to, you

know, the opposite of what you, you

know, bought, it's going to wipe out

your entire

returns for several years. And here's

another one with Micro Strategy. He bet

actually the same amount and it won

14,000. And here's another one. bro

dropped 7 million to win 15,000. So, I

mean, I don't know if this is uh is if

this is photoshopped or not. I mean, I

didn't really verify if this is true or

not, but the there's this guy here, poor

sub. He did well Melania say Korea doing

AI talk on Friday

and he bet

7,196,870

to win 0.21%.

And so here he has here we have his

profile

and he actually have active

uh position right now. So he did will

trump Trump say million a billion

trillion 10 times doing CNBC interview.

So he put a million dollars and he made

$1,000 so far.

So he bought at 99.8 8 and currently

it's 99.9

and then closed.

Yeah, we have it. We have the one here

um

where he bet 7 million. He did

6 million

and 100,000 4 million

2 million 1 million 2 million one and a

half. That's I mean that's just crazy,

right? So he does like a thousand here

and there in in profits which is pretty

mind-boggling.

And if we do his profit loss,

he have made 113,000

all time. He started in October, didn't

really make much.

So he's basically just scraping it. This

looks like it's manual for sure. It's

manual trades, I suppose. betting, you

know, a million a time is crazy. And

done um 63

predictions currently have a position

value 1.6 million. So that is

bonding in a nutshell. Yeah. So that was

all for now and if you haven't joined

already, please go ahead and join our

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we're just growing this Discord and

building it out as we go. So, um, you

can, uh, join the Discord today. And

I've made sure to leave a invite down in

the description below. So, until next

time, have a good one and see you.

Bye-bye.