I started listening to Green Lights.

There's a story in it from when he was

like 20. He'd gotten into the University

of Texas. He was pre-law. He met some

people at Texas that had convinced him

that he should switch to film school.

And he had immense anxiety about sharing

this with his father. But he finally

tells his dad. And his dad utters this

very simple phrase, "Well, don't halfass

it." And he said in that single moment

he gave him blessing, consent, approval,

validation, privilege, honor, freedom,

and responsibility. Called it rocket

fuel.

>> All right, Bill. Great to see you, man.

>> Good to see you.

>> And I thought we would start with a prop

that you brought. So, there was a very

thick book with a tattered cover, and I

think that is as good a lead in as

anything. What are you holding?

>> I'm holding a book called The Last Laugh

by Phil Burgerer. The reason it's

tattered is I think it may be out of

print. Like I bought it used, you know,

because I wanted to see it and have it.

>> What's the subtitle?

>> The Last Lap: The World of Standup

Comics.

>> Why do you have this book? Are you Are

you thinking of making a career switch?

>> No. [laughter]

So, as part of researching my new book,

Running Down a Dream, my coowriter and

I, we spent six years just diving

through stories because I had done this

speech at the University of Texas and we

wanted to enhance it, you know, when we

went to the printed form. And one of the

stories we came across

was Jerry Seinfeld and his decision, you

know, to pursue a career as a comedian.

and he was in New York.

He wasn't sure what he wanted to do with

his life. He had an inkling, an inkling

that he might want to be a stand-up

comic, but he didn't know what that

meant. He didn't know if it was a real

career. He didn't know that you could

make money. And he read this book and it

profiles, I don't know, it looks like 15

different, you know, it's got Woody

Allen, Bill Cosby, George Carlin, Lily

Tomlin, Robert Klein. It profiled them

in a way that was very disinhibiting to

him. It gave him permission to go do

this career that's not a typical career.

Right. It like when you go to college,

they don't list stand-up comedian as

something that you can go do.

>> You know, the guidance counselors are

generally putting that on the multiple

choice.

>> Exactly. But but this book served as

something that granted him permission to

go do that.

>> And we're going to come back to that. I

will I will say that I bookmarked this

for future conversations and of course

we're chatting outside of these

recordings but because two years ago

almost exactly when we did our first

episode you mentioned that you were

working on a book idea based on the

belief that it's easier than ever to

rise up because access to mentors and

information is unprecedented. So we'll

come back to that of course and discuss

it and the frameworks and the approaches

and the stories at some length but I

wanted to start with some topical

subject matter.

AI bubble or not? [clears throat]

[laughter]

And if so, what does that mean?

>> Yeah. So, I think this is super

interesting. My my partner Peter

reminded me of a book that we had seen a

a while ago by Carlaua Perez. It has

this very benign title, Technological

Revolutions and Financial Capital. It

was written in like 2002.

And what Perez

kind of simplifies and notices, which I

just find perfect for trying to

understand whether there's a bubble or

not, is that every time there's been a

technology wave that leads to wealth

creation, especially fast wealth

creation, that will inherently invite

speculators, carpet baggers, interlopers

that want to come take advantage of it.

think of the gold rush, you know, and so

people want to make it a debate. Do you

believe in AI or is it a bubble? And if

you say you think it's a bubble, they

say, "Oh, you don't believe in AI." Like

this gotcha kind of thing. And if you

study Perez, and I I think this is

absolutely correct. If the wave is real,

then you're going to have bubble-like

behavior. like they come together as a

pair precisely because anytime there's

very quick wealth creation, you're going

to get a lot of people that want to come

try and take advantage of that or

participate in it. So, you get a flood

of those types of people coming at it.

[clears throat] And so, it's odd.

There's a real technology wave that's

that's fundamentally changing the world

and there's also massive speculation

simultaneous. Yeah, they come as a pair.

I recall not too long ago, maybe two

weeks ago, saw a short interview with

your friend Jeff Bezos and he

distinguished between financial bubbles

and industrial bubbles and cited, and

I'm paraphrasing here, but 2008 as an

example of a bad bubble, right?

financial bubble versus let's just say

the early 2000s like 99 98 99 2000 where

a lot of very important technology was

created that then was durable after the

fact and created new generations of

entrepreneurs and a lot of economic

growth and he believes that AI would

fall into the industrial bubble category

of things but I suppose given that the

dancing pair you described come

together. How would you think about

investing in private companies, modern

venture capital at this point in time?

And just I suppose as it's changed since

you were most active,

>> a quick comment on that industrial

bubble thing. You know, one thing that

is surprising to me is that even though

I fundamentally believe this is an

important real technology wave, the big

players, even the Max 7 have all decided

to do things from a deal perspective.

You've read about these circular deals

and whatnot.

>> Could you explain what you mean by that?

>> Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of talk out

there, but it all started when Microsoft

invested in OpenAI. Open AI agreed to

buy services from Microsoft. Yeah,

>> which is called a circular deal because

you're giving them money they wouldn't

have otherwise.

>> And when Daario was on stage at Dealbook

last week, he said, "Oh, I can explain

this. It's not that hard. Amazon wanted

us to spend money we didn't have, so

they gave us even more money." And I'm

like, well, that's precisely why this is

a questionable behavior. But it's gotten

bigger. You know, Nvidia's handing out

money, and then Nvidia gave Coree money,

but then also agreed to buy any services

they have left over. this stuff's not

ideal. Like if you [clears throat] were

say what's crisp, clean accounting, you

know, you wouldn't do these kind of

things. And some of them say, well, it's

not material. And which I would say,

well then why are you doing it? I've

asked other people to try and understand

how even big sophisticated companies

might get speculative using a word from

the previous discussion. And I hear

things like, well, you know, [snorts]

loss aversion tends to go down when

you're winning. Like if you're on a hot

streak in a casino, you take more risk.

Things like that. But it is surprising

to me when it comes to retail investors.

I mean, I would be particularly

concerned for them at this stage in the

AI game because there is a plethora of

SPV vehicles. You've heard that phrase,

I'm sure. SPV. This is where someone has

an in on an investment and they do a

oneoff VC fund if you will special

purpose vehicle.

>> Yeah. It's a single entity just for that

to invest in X. We have an allocation of

however much money and then they can

allow sort of Jane Doe and John Doe

potentially

>> and they take a rake on it and there's

people promoting SPVS in situations

where they don't even actually have the

underlying stock or maybe they hope to

get it. It's the wild wild west and most

of the people on that edge I would put

in the category of interloper carpet

bagger these are people that have come

to this thing and I just think you got

to be quite careful the the investments

[snorts]

>> that were made that have already had

100x plus returns were made a while ago

you know before this thing started

>> and that's not to say there won't be an

incremental AI investment that makes

money I think there will but your odds

right now of of that being the case are

really really low.

>> Yeah, I would add to that and say, and

this this applies to me as much as

anyone else, but your actual risk

tolerance

may differ probably does differ

significantly from your your perceived

risk tolerance if you haven't had a huge

draw down, right? if you haven't

actually ridden a few of those waves and

see how you respond in those

circumstances

and you should be I suppose skeptical of

how you view your own intestinal

fortitude with some of those things or

maybe the losses you can absorb because

I recall for instance I've seen this

many many times but with these types of

SPVS people get involved and let's just

say they're not typically an angel

investor they don't have the experience

of watching 60 70 80% of their

investments go the zero or become the

walking dead and they sign off on all of

the not necessarily waiverss but they

accept accept accept on like the SPV

terms of service which all say you could

lose all of your investment this is

incredibly risky.

>> Yeah.

>> But then when it does go to zero you

know the financial and psychological

impact is catastrophic.

>> There's a lot there's a lot of people

and I think this comes from a very good

place. I think they're very

well-intentioned who look at the world

and say, you know, well, first of all,

you know, rising inequality, like why

can't everyone have access to the same

things? And and then companies are

staying private longer. So they say we

need to institutionalize

the generic public's ability to invest

in private companies. And the problem, I

think there's two problems. one you just

hinted at which is most private company

VC backed even go to zero like the

majority which is not something people

really they sense that they want the

lottery ticket they want the the Uber

they want the one that goes to the moon

>> but they don't understand that that

comes along with it

>> they don't want to buy losing lottery

tickets for 12 years

>> right exactly and the second problem is

the information transparency in the

private company gain is just low. And I

think [clears throat] the institutional

investors have come to understand that

and kind of know what they're getting

into and know how to evaluate things.

But if you come at it with a public

market mindset thinking, "Oh, every set

of financials I've been handed is is

audited and is correct and like that's

just not the case. It's it's super

loosey goosey." So, if you were, this

may be a difficult question, but if you

were angel investing

right now, how would you be thinking

about your approach?

>> I'll tell you a funny story. When I

decided to hang up my gloves, if you

will, and stop making institutional

venture capital investments, I had a

whole bunch of ideas about what I wanted

to do next. And one of them was, oh,

I'll do a bunch of angel investing. You

know, Bezos did it on the side. You

know, this would be fantastic.

>> He did pretty well with his angel

investing. [laughter]

I was explaining this to a I won't say

who it is but a a Silicon Valley CEO

very successful and he said 'What are

you going to do now? I said I was

thinking of doing angel investing. He

goes why would you do that? [laughter]

He said I got 50 of these things. People

don't return my calls. He goes I wish

I'd never done it. [laughter]

So there is a unglamorous side to it as

much as there is a glamorous side. And

you've participated in this world

before. What would I say? I think if I

were doing angel investments, I'd try

and find an intersection of people that

are super curious and are playing with

all these AI tools, but bring a

perspective from a particular industry

that gives them an advantage in that

area where they could simultaneously be

maybe the smartest user of AI in their

genre, in their vertical. So despite the

or maybe because of because we talked

about the pair

the AI bubble, you would still be

looking at AI intersected opportunities

if you were angel investing.

>> Yeah, there's a weird reality out there

right now and it this could end if ever

a bubble is popped or whatever, but the

institutional investors have zero

interest in non AI deals.

>> Mhm.

>> Zero. It's more black and white than I

could be successful in

>> for people who do not know the term.

Define the institutional investor.

>> People who are paid both a a salary and

a piece of the return to be active

investors of other people's money using

other people's money. But the reason

that kind of matters is if you angel

fund a deal and have any hope of it

raising money in the future, if it's not

AI related right now,

>> could die of neglect.

>> There is no interest. I can't state

clearly enough how there's zero and and

I could I could simultaneously make fun

of that reality, but I could also

justify that reality, but it is the

reality right now. And by the way, while

I mention that, I feel obligated for

your audience. Like, I don't care what

field you're in, you should be playing

with this stuff.

>> Like, it has the potential to impact

your role in your career. And the best

way to protect against any risk of your

career being obuscated or eliminated

from AI is to be the most AI enabled

version of yourself you can possibly be.

How would you think about maybe you can

give a hypothetical example of looking

for someone who has very very

sophisticated domain expertise

and experience who's now intersecting

with AI and has a unique because of the

combination perspective on things to

invest in as an angel investor separate

that from something that's just going to

be consumed by the fundamental the kind

of fundamental models and these larger

companies

>> from a career perspective. perspective

or

>> from an angel investment perspective,

how would you pick folks you don't think

are just going to end up working on

something that gets replicated in short

order by the bigger companies?

>> The key is just to stay pretty far away

from the edge of whatever. I mean, you

can go online and see interviews with

people at Anthropic or OpenAI and what

they're working on. Like, if it's the

next thing they're going to do,

>> I don't think you're going to be

protected. But as I think about, you

know, founders and angel investors,

you're talking about a pretty broad

array of things at this point, as I

mentioned earlier, you're not going to

back the next big model company.

Besides, if if you were, you need a

billion dollar angel investment to go

make that happen. Like, it's just really

the game's changed. There's so much

money involved. I think you're going to

want to be off the beaten path anyway.

When I think about these deeper

verticals, I don't think it will make

sense for OpenAI to go crush every

little vertical

>> waste management.

>> And even if the model's capable of

understanding that subject matter, there

are workflows, there are data sets that

are local to your customer and that

stuff has to be stitched together. Mhm.

>> So I think having an understanding of a

particular industry and and one that's

not going to be on the next thing to do

list at OpenAI would probably be your

best bet.

>> Got it. So is it fair to say if I'm

understanding you correctly that

effectively looking for something that

would not be a high priority for one of

these larger companies and also a

proprietary data set of some type?

proprietary data sets. The more kind of

workflows that exist are are better

because you can build software around

those things.

>> What is a workflow?

>> The thing that popped in my head, I'm on

the board of Zillow. You know, Zillow's

been investing for the past 5 years in

tools that help the realtor do their

day-to-day job.

>> Mhm.

>> They have a tool called Showing Time

that helps you book inerson tours at

houses, as an example. But there's

putting the mortgage together, getting

the sign offs on, like there's just all

these tasks that have to be happen that

can be automated.

>> Tasks that can be automated that can be

integrated with AI. The more of that

stuff you can build into a system, the

better off you're going to be protecting

yourself from a model that just answers

questions, right?

>> Which is why which is why I brought it

up.

>> Let's move on to big topic, big country,

China.

You spent 10 days there over the past

summer. What was your experience? What

did you see? What made an impression?

What did you do?

>> I'd been about six times before. So,

this is like my seventh trip. One thing

that was different, my daughter is Asian

studies major, as you were.

>> Yeah. [laughter]

>> And she spent the summer in Hong Kong.

So, we picked her up and then we toured

six cities in 10 days.

>> [snorts]

>> And my objective with this trip, in the

past trips, it was mostly just to meet

with entrepreneurs and founders and

mutual sharing of information, that kind

of thing. This time I was more

interested in just kind of being eyes

wide open and learning. And so we took

two of the high-speed trains, you know,

just as an experience set. I got a tour

of the Xiai factory with their new car,

the SU7, and was trying to get a feel

for what's kind of most recent there.

And we, you know, went to Shenzhen,

Overnight City, which has gone from, I

think, less than 100,000 people in 1980

to 20 million people, just to see the

scale and scope of the whole thing.

There's a lot of rhetoric in the US

about what is or isn't happening in

China.

>> [snorts]

>> and I just wanted to have a better feel

for it and and we're making policy

decisions that are going to impact, you

know, the global footprint and god

forbid, you know, end up in a World War

II kind of situation. So anyway, I just

wanted a better understanding. I was

aided by the fact that Dan Wong shared

his book Breakneck with me right before

I left and I read it while I was there,

which was interesting. and then it came

out and of course it ended up on the

bestseller list. But I think China's

misperceived in a lot of ways.

>> What are some of those misperceptions?

>> The biggest one is that people who have

a rudimentary understanding

of

what is happening there.

Use this word communism to infer a lot

of other things. And one of the things

that's inferred by communism is top-own

state-run system. And they think they

think of Russia and they assume well

that'll always lead to bad capital

allocation, no innovation because they

have this picture of in their mind of

these brick buildings like with snow all

around them and not much happening.

>> And the reality there is just far far

different from that. I think Dan Wong

did a great job of explaining how the

country puts out this five-year plan,

but then the provinces, which are

they're a lot bigger than a US state,

but they're the equivalent like it's how

the country segment and they compete

with each other. And [snorts]

the effective mayor of the province, if

he if he does well, has a chance to move

up in the system, which is not a reality

in the US system. But what that leads to

is just a massive amount of competition.

>> What are the metrics by which they're

being judged? Do you have any idea on a

province level? Is it some equivalent of

GDP? It's not the right term, but

>> I'm guessing probably like we could go

talk to AI and get a better answer

[laughter] than I have right now, but

yeah, I would think that's part of it.

Prosperity, employment,

>> those kind of things. By the way, this

provincial competition has also led to

overbuild of buildings. Like it's not

always positive. You know, bridges that

aren't used.

>> Go cities.

>> Go cities. Yes. But you end up with

hyper competition. So the I think the

thing that a lot of people in Silicon

Valley love about capitalism is this

notion of the invisible hand and

competition that leads to innovation and

best practice and the winners rise up

and they're better for it. That is

happening there. And if you read about

the solar industry or the EV industry or

now the the robotics industry, they have

hundreds of different companies

competing in these fields and it's

brutal competition and as a result of

that they're ending up with very

innovative companies which once again I

think people wouldn't prescribe to being

possible in [snorts] a communist you

know world and remarkable

execution from a industrial standpoint.

So the price points of the products that

that will be sold around the globe are

well below anything that could be done

in the US.

>> How do you go about getting a tour of

Xiaomi factory? I would think that they

would be very closed about that. What's

in it for them? And how do they

>> I don't know if you saw this going

around the internet yesterday, but they

shipped a car to this YouTuber.

>> Oh, yeah. I saw it

>> brilliant and he did like a 15. That's

the SU7. That's the factory I went to.

As I mentioned, I'd been there before.

So, I met Leun, who's the founder of

Xiai, in 2005 when he was chairman of

Joyo, which was a e-commerce company

that Amazon bought. So, he's been around

a while.

>> Yeah.

>> He has evolved into the best thing I

could say is like he's the Steve Jobs of

China right now.

>> Mhm. when he quit doing yo-yo and he had

this other company as well. He declared

10 years ago he was going to build a

smartphone just out of the blue. I'm

going to build a smartphone. He didn't

have any smartphone experience. But Xiai

is now the third largest manufacturer of

handsets in the globe. And about four or

five years ago at about the exact same

time Apple hinted they were interested

in building a car. He said, "I'm going

to build a car."

>> Well, not only did he say, "I'm going to

build a car." But that was a response to

sanctions, right? It was an emergency as

I I listened to one of well I listened

to the translation of even though my

Chinese is decent but it's not as good

as it once was his I think it was 2024

>> that's it

>> companywide address where he talked

about the sanctions coming in saying

what if we couldn't make phones what

would we do

>> that talk is unbelievable and it it's

translated on YouTube and I would

encourage people to watch from about

minute 30 to about an hour

which is where he talks about his

process for designing the car. I don't

know if you saw that part. I did,

>> but it's crazy. He says he put a note on

any car in his parking lot that he had

never drove and he would ask each

employee to give them three positives,

three negatives, and loan him the car.

Said he drove 200 of his employees cars.

When you hear that kind of stuff, you're

like, "Wow, I wonder if anyone at Apple

did that." I mean, it's just such a kind

of bottom up just ground truth way to

start the process. But even still, even

if you did that, like a bunch of people

could do that. How do you have the

wherewithal to build a factory? He'd

never built a factory before. I've been

in other car factories here in the US.

It was phenomenal. Anyway, back to your

question. Why I could get in is I I knew

late June from way back.

>> What does the process look like? Are

there a bunch of clearances and you have

to get the okay from the provincial?

>> I don't think we went through the whole

factory, but no, I mean, they're a

public company. I think they're

interested in

>> being well understood.

>> Yeah.

>> Which I think hints at why they enabled

this. I think they had to send a car to

this guy,

>> the YouTuber.

>> Yeah.

>> And by the way, the president of Ford

went over there about 6 months before I

did. went on the same tour. So, they let

him go there and he had an SU7 shipped

to to Michigan and he drove it for

several weeks and he's talked about how

incredible it is.

>> Well, he also, if I'm remembering

correctly, has talked about EV

production and battery dominance or at

least component dominance from China and

the sort of risks inherent in that. I

don't want to bleed too far into

geopolitics, but it's hard not to pull

it into the conversation. So, this is a

question from X, the artist formerly

known as Twitter. One of many questions,

but I'll ask what what are your top

handful of critiques, say, of the

Chinese tech ecosystem or CCP after

going on a tour there? What would you

say they're not doing well or things

that complicate their ability to

compete? The first one that's I think

been well publicized is when an

entrepreneur has risen to a level of

success and then uses that as a platform

the government seems uninterested in

that. So

>> exhibit the jack.

>> Yeah. Exactly. And there's a saying that

I think I heard while I was over there.

Don't be the tallest tree.

>> Don't be the tallest tree. The nail that

sticks out gets hammered down. In Japan,

they have a totally different system.

Obviously,

>> the other entrepreneur outside of Leune

is the Bite Dance CEO and Bite Dance

probably got the leading position for

the consumer AI like OpenAI but over

there right now

>> in addition to just incredible revenue

growth. This is the company that owned

Tik Tok and whatnot.

>> But they're not going public and you

don't see him at all.

>> Mhm. you know, which may get to this

tallest tree thing.

>> Yeah. I mean, celebrities also disappear

over there. No doubt. Very mysteriously.

>> Yes. And business people.

>> Yeah.

>> So, yes, that does happen.

>> I will say and for people who are

wondering, right? Because the there are

a lot of how should we put this? I mean,

there are people who are very angry,

very hawkish. Some people are very very

supportive and then their agendas or

alliances get questioned. I like you am

just interested in understanding what is

happening to the extent that I can right

what is the actual truth on the ground

what are the details and frankly I mean

the innovation over there is is

remarkable and what they've done in

terms of establishing access to rare

metals and everything they need to

manufacture is remar you go to South

America or Africa and it is Chinese

everywhere on infrastructure projects I

mean they've been very very smart about

it. So, I'm deeply interested in in all

of it. And please hold your thought

because I want to hear everything you

have to say. What I would say is a a

piece of the threedimensional chess that

I've been impressed with is how well the

Chinese government is able to well I

mean of course they're able to integrate

with the private sector so that they're

able to use in a sense products to widen

their scope of access potentially like

DJI for instance great example people

have a lot of questions around these

cars as spectacular as they might be Are

they an extension of surveillance?

Right. These are open questions that I

think are worth asking. But you were

about to say something, so I'll let you

hop.

>> No, no, no. I I think let me make one

point and then let's come to that. So

there's two other things I wanted to

mention.

>> Obviously infrastructure. So they are

building new nuclear fision plants. So

fision being old school, not new school

at 1/4 the price that we do it here in

the US. So is South Korea, by the way.

>> Yeah. And the numbers are incredible.

>> But when we sit here and say, "Oh, we

want to reshore manufacturing and they

can build things at 1/4 the price we

can." If you don't solve that, you're

going to reshore something and we're

going to not be price competitive

globally.

>> And then because you won't import what

they have and you're going to make our

citizens buy this new from this new

factory where we're making things way

more expensive. It doesn't work. Like

>> the math doesn't matter. It it doesn't

And by the way, I'm not not sure it

brings jobs. The Xiai factory was a a

third based on some numbers I was able

to acquire, a third the number of

employees per car output.

>> And I got to believe in 10 years it'll

be a sixth. And so [snorts] you could

calculate the total number of jobs you'd

be bringing back if you brought back all

this car production and it'd be hundreds

of thousands. It's not millions and

millions of jobs. So anyway, that

infrastructure thing's for real. And and

I think Dan Wong does a good job of

saying that America is run by lawyers.

>> He's the author of of breakneck.

>> Our country is run by lawyers and theirs

is run by engineers. And so when you try

and build something here, the lawyers

just get in the way and try and block

it, which certainly when you hear Elon

talks about why the gigafactories here

in Austin and not in California, it all

relates to those things. So anyway,

that's infrastructure. There's another

thing that's I think quite interesting,

which is the government may not care

about [snorts] whether or not their

companies have really big market caps.

>> Mhm.

>> And when I first realized this, you

know, you saw what happened when they

they took down Alibaba when they went

after Jack and Ant Financial

[clears throat] could have been this big

thing and it got, you know, haircut and

you question, well, do they care? And if

you are pushing your companies to be

lowcost providers, maybe that's at odds

with them being hyperp profofitable and

really big. And then you can turn around

and ask the question that hearing that

caused me to ask the question, does

America really benefit by the fact that

the Mag 7 have $3 trillion market caps?

I know the employees of those companies

do, but is that a sign of of our

competitive capitalistic society not

being truly competitive

>> on a global scale?

>> And even within like there's a notion

you learn about in economics classes

called pure competition. And in pure

competition, no one has an intellectual

property advantage. Marginal profits are

whittleled down just to the cost of

capital. on the consumer benefits

because there's no excessive profit

capture. If we have all these companies

that are able to kind of have excessive

profits, is that a form of market

failure?

>> Mhm.

>> And does the fact that they exist help

America in any way? I at first I of

course I'm a venture capitalist. I want

to think yes, of course. But then as I

think about it, I don't know that our

government or our society or our people

are better off because these six

companies have three trillion dollar

market caps.

>> No,

>> it's not that many people that the

percentage of the country that's

employed by those companies is small on

overall basis. And so anyway, I think

they have a different perspective on

whether big market caps matter. And I

think that is somewhat intriguing. What

do you think about the innovation in

China leading in some cases to the

development of superior technology at a

lower cost that is

plausibly an extension of the

intelligence gathering apparatus of the

government? Is that a real thing?

>> I'm not in a good place to know.

>> I would have to imagine it seems like

they would have to be stupid not to use

>> that given their ability to penetrate

private. certainly well known that they

do surveillance in of their own people

and I know that would be particularly

upsetting to people like Greg Luciano

that you know runs fire and is very

interested in free speech.

>> The flip side is there's very little

street crime. You walk around,

>> you don't worry about that when you're

there.

>> Yeah, it's true also in Japan though,

right?

>> Doesn't make it right or wrong. It's

just it is what it is. And I don't know

that we have this ability to kind of

tell them how they have to do it. Now to

the extent that the Huawei stuff where

their products are being shipped out and

then those are used to gather

intelligence out of their country and

the rest of the world, of course that's

a problem.

>> Yeah.

>> But I think the way to deal with it, I'm

not a politician, but I think the way to

deal with it, I'm more of a believer of

of the engage. Engage. talk about what

you don't like and what you do like and

try and negotiate that problem away like

we're trying to do with the fentanyl

precursors. [clears throat]

>> Yeah. Well, way back in the day when I

was an East Asian studies major, this

was lifetimes ago. And keeping in mind

like I was at the capital university of

business economics in 1996.

That was the bicycle era. You know,

these old photographs of Beijing with

Oh, yeah. millions of bicycles with

people in their long green jackets. I

had one of those jackets for the

winters. It gets really cold. But things

have changed a lot. At the time I was I

was looking forward and thinking I might

be one of those people who could engage

in Chinese. I think the way to do it is

in English frankly for a whole host of

reasons. But even if you speak the other

language like Putin speaks English

pretty well but he does all of his

[laughter] negotiations when he's

speaking in Russian for a lot of good

reasons. Same good reasons. First of

all, I do get accused of being like an

agent of the CCP or something even by

some of the people that responded to

your your Twitter thing [laughter] and

right

>> I'm not I've only visited a few times. I

don't know anybody in the government.

But I worry greatly that we make bad

policy decisions if we misunderstand

what's really going on.

>> Oh, I agree with that. I fully agree

with that. I mean, I've thought about

I'm frankly I'm worried about it. I

mean, I would take a burner phone and a

burner laptop. I've thought about

because I want to get a better

understanding of the culture of

innovation that can be fostered and

exactly how things are to the extent

that it would be visible to me how

things are developing in China. I've

thought about going there. I thought

about doing the same thing in India too

to go and interview like 10 of the top

entrepreneurs, right? But the reason I

haven't done it is that I'm just like, I

don't know what radars that's going to

put me on, what kind of surveillance,

what kind of fill in the blank. I how

difficult is it going to be? Who am I

going to whose rings am I going to have

to kiss? Am I overthinking it or is it

still

>> I think you're overthinking it. I think

the odds that Tim Ferrris would

disappear in China is really

>> Oh, I'm not worried about disappearing.

That would be a terrible that like the

upside downside on that doesn't make any

sense. I I'm not worried about

disappearing.

>> There are companies that may not speak

with you. Like when I was there,

deepseek and unry, the word was kind of

out on the street that they're not

meeting with Westerners.

>> Yeah.

>> You know, for reasons that are

>> Well, it's a I'm sure that's true.

Conversely, in the US, too, right?

>> Yes. Oh, yeah. And by the way, I think

that reflective, you know, lens when you

think about the country is helpful. Like

when Alex Karp was just on stage at

Dealbook last week, he was talking about

surveillance and he says, "Well, of

course, our tools are used to surveil

the the enemy."

>> Yeah. And and I'm like, okay, well, you

know, my god, the Chinese are

surveilling us, but obviously we're

surveilling them, too. Like, like, let's

be honest about these things.

>> Yeah. I mean, it's a lot easier for a

bunch of obvious reasons. In some

respects, a lot easier for them to

surveil us than the other way around. I

mean, partially just due to the

homogeneity of the society over there,

right? You can't like send a bunch of

blondhaired, blue eyes, black, latino,

whatever to China to end up at like top

universities, top companies, etc. It's

just a lot hard.

>> By the way, to bit of bow on this part,

like I would I would say there's two

other things. One you hinted at. one,

the supply chains are so integrated in

China down to the raw material level

that even if you brought a factory back

here, it'd be more of an assembly shop

and you'd still be sourcing from there,

which isn't necessarily cost

competitive. And to replicate all of it

would take a very, very, very long time.

>> Yeah. Well, including raw materials for

staple pharmaceuticals. I mean, there's

a lot going on. So, what at this point,

is it a day late and a dollar short for

the US? I know I I almost promised we

weren't going to go into this, but I I

want to know your opinion. I'm so

curious. What are the keys to the US

remaining

globally competitive and vibrant as an

economy? You hinted to one, which is I

mean, it seems kind of inevitable,

nuclear power or more power. So, how do

you do that?

>> [snorts]

>> I'm not sure how quickly you can write

the ship, although it seems like a

handful of people have done a pretty

good job of changing the narrative. What

are some of the key things in your

opinion that the US needs to do?

>> One is make it easier to build

>> build companies, build

>> I think build infrastructure. If you're

going to build semiconductor plants, if

you're going to build nuclear plants on

time and on budget, that's very hard to

do in the US right now. And the glimmer

of hope, I would say, is that a few

states seem to have governors that want

to get stuff out of the way. And I think

it's red tape and bureaucracy and

lawyers and litigation that make this

stuff so expensive. And so Texas and

Arizona seem to be getting their unfair

share of data centers and semiconductor

plants. And I think because of that

attitude, I've seen a [snorts] similar

attitude in Pennsylvania, you know,

where they repaired I95 in 12 days, but

they literally had to take a bunch of

statutes that are on the books and say

that they don't apply right now. So that

mindset, I think, needs a lot more

momentum.

>> That'd be one thing. There's another

thing that I think is important for

people to understand on the China front.

There are numerous

people with a loud microphone that will

say, "Oh, they know how to scale out

plants, but they don't know how to do

any innovation." And that's just flat

wrong. Whoever's saying that just hasn't

been there. They don't know the facts on

the ground. These entrepreneurs are

every bit as good as the entrepreneurs

they are here. There are examples like

in LAR, they built a Mims Liar product

that's like $130 a car. The light.

>> What is MEMS's LAR?

>> State uses solid state semiconductor

technology instead of that big spinning

radar.

>> Yep.

>> And so the LAR on a Whimo is five grand

>> and it's 130 bucks for MEMS lighter

they're putting on every car. You can go

in the chat GBT and say tell me about

MIM's LAR innovation in China. It's a

great example. Le June's another one.

Anybody that thinks there's no

innovation is just

>> Yeah. They're just wrong.

>> They got blinders on.

>> Yeah. No, that's not true. That's

definitely not true. I asked you two

years ago if there are any countries

that you're long on. At the time, I'd be

curious if this is still the case. You

said you're long on the UK. Less

regulatory capture.

>> Did I say that?

>> Losing party pay is in the legal system.

>> I do love that. [laughter]

>> Which reduces frivolous litigation

compared to the US. Any thoughts on

where you're bullish these days? Well, I

ironically Matt Ridley was in town a few

weeks ago and also rational optimist.

>> Yes. I love his stuff, but he would say

that I would be dead wrong on that. That

[laughter] things aren't going well

there. So, and he lives there. So, I'll

just take that as I got that one wrong.

[laughter]

>> Well, I mean, it depends on the time

frame, too, right? Is it two years or is

it 5 years or is it 10 years? One of the

things that's been impressive about

China is, you know, since Deng Xiaoing

kind of brought back capitalism, 500

million people have come out of poverty.

And you look at countries that have a

very strong work ethic and a high

education and a low

currently low peropulate income and you

would think more jobs would come their

way. So two that would pop for me are

Vietnam and Turkey [clears throat]

>> who kind of check all those boxes.

Hopefully I do better then [laughter]

check in in another two years. All

right, so let's let's talk about this is

going to be a segue to talking about

running down a dream and all things

involved with that. Maybe we could start

with an anecdote from a fellow Austin

knight. Likes to play the bongos. long

hair associated with smoking reefer

every once in a while. [laughter]

Matthew, we're talking about a short

anecdote

>> about Matthew before we started

recording. Would you mind sharing that?

>> As I was kind of wrapping up the book,

>> I started listening to Green Lights and

I was told you had to listen to it cuz

of course he reads it so you get all the

great MCA affections as you read it. But

there's a story in it that just popped

in my brain and kind of summarized

exactly what I'm trying to accomplish

with this book, Running Down a Dream.

And he had spent the vast majority of

his young adult life, so this anecdotes

from when he was like 20, 21, telling

his family he was going to be a lawyer.

And so he'd gotten into the University

of Texas. He was pre-law. Every time he

went home, he talked about, "Yeah, I'm

gonna be a lawyer." And he had met some

people at Texas that had convinced him

that [snorts] he should switch to film

school. And he had immense anxiety about

sharing this with his father. His

father, this is all in the book, but his

father's a very tough individual.

[snorts]

And so, reason to be fearful, you know,

when you're gonna drop some news. No

longer going to be a lawyer. I'm going

to go to film school. And he builds it

up a lot in the book, like I didn't know

when I was going to talk to him. Like

you can imagine being in that situation.

You're delaying, delaying, delaying. But

he finally tells his dad. And his dad

utters this very simple phrase, "Well,

don't halfass it." [snorts] And he says,

you know, of all the reactions he could

have had, don't halfass it were the last

words I expected to hear and the best

words he could have ever said to me. And

he said in that single moment he gave

him blessing, consent, approval,

validation, privilege, honor, freedom,

and responsibility. Called it rocket

fuel. And I'd like to believe there are

a number of people out there, young

adults, maybe even some mid midlife

career, who have this notion that they

should be doing something else, but

society has [snorts] put them on a path

or just the way they metriculated

through college put them into a career

that they just don't love and that they

have this inkling that they could go do

this thing. Or maybe you're a young kid

and you really want to do X, but

everybody else is telling you to do A,

B, and C. Like, I want to help them have

the confidence and permission to go do

X, to go chase this dream.

>> And as you hinted at from our last call,

I think the amount of your ability to

make connections and to gather

information and learn on your own pace

has never been better. You can literally

just sit there and talk to Chad GPT six

hours a day if you so choose and learn

so much about any particular field. And

so like your ability to take things into

your own hands and to go try and be

successful in this thing that you feel

passionate about I think has never been

better. Why do you think when you

initially gave and subsequently had to

go online run down a dream as a

presentation, why do you think that

took? Why did it strike a chord in the

way that it did? What do you think it

was? I think we've built a society like

nobody's fault like we just have built a

society where we love to celebrate

people that are successful in a lot of

different fields but when it comes to

our own children we tend to think way

more pragmatically about what they

should be doing. [snorts] you know,

lawyers, consultants,

doctors, computer scientists, like it's

all these jobs that have certainty to

the financial component. And I think

that's like so well intended. Like I

don't think there's mal intent of anyone

in the system. And I'm a parent of

three. Like I've been through this. You

just feel this obligation to try and

push them towards prosperity. But it's

not intellectual prosperity. It's not

happiness. It's it's financial

stability.

>> Yes. That most people are guiding

children towards. This isn't that

complicated a math, but most people end

up working 80,000 hours in their

[clears throat] life. It's a third of

your life. Why do something you don't

like? There's Gallup poll data on career

engagement and 59% of people say they're

not engaged at work. And this is that

whole quiet quitting thing that we hear

so much about. And some of these numbers

are at an all-time low. And it just

seems horrific that people are kind of

sauntering through life.

>> What are some of the keys to

taking the path less traveled than in

this case, right? There are few I

highlighted for myself, but where should

we start? I highlighted one for myself.

We don't have to start here, but go

where the action is. I just think this

is so underrated

and people it further undervalue it

maybe in a digital world but we can

start anywhere you want. That's just one

that really jumped out to me because I

think it's really underrated. But where

would you like to start

>> in the book? One of the things that we

tie together very early on is the

interplay between

passion or fascination or curiosity and

learning. And the way to be most

successful in any endeavor, but

certainly if you're going to go tilt it,

something that's less pragmatic

>> is to be the smartest, most

knowledgeable person you can possibly

be. And knowledge is free now, as we've

talked about. And I have this test for

whether or not you're actually

truly passionate about what you're

trying to do, which is do you selflearn

on your own time? like would you not

watch Breaking Bad and read about this

field and be energized by that activity?

>> Mhm.

>> If you are and you know we have 20 30

different stories in the book of people

that have been successful almost all of

them check that box.

>> You just have this amazing ability to

gain knowledge so much faster than

everyone else you would be competing

with.

>> Mhm.

>> And that's going to be useful. that's

unquestionably gonna be useful.

>> It makes me think of an interview I saw

a long time ago actually. It was quite a

few years ago, but it was an interview

with Joe Rogan and he said something

that surprised me. It might surprise a

lot of people, which was along the lines

of he's not good at it was either

willpower or discipline, which is he's

in great shape. Obviously, he's black

belt in jiu-jitsu. He's done what he's

done with the podcast. He's the

undisputed king of podcasting, etc.,

etc., etc. And he said, "I'm not

actually good at whether it was

discipline or willpower, but I am good

at obsession. It's all on or all off."

And I've seen that. I'm sure you've seen

this in a lot of the entrepreneurs who

actually make it to the other side and

create these mega successes. They are

just obsessed. And [clears throat] that

gives them a huge not just knowledge

advantage, but endurance advantage. You

just go down the check boxes. It's all

advantages.

>> I had the opportunity to talk to Angela

Duckworth when I was working on this and

her book Grit talks about two

components, passion and perseverance.

And I heard a podcast she had done

recently where she said if she could go

back,

>> she would put far more weight on the

passion than the perseverance because

she says we've taught our children to

grind. Mhm.

>> And so once again, starting in sixth

grade, they're told to learn the flute

and take lacrosse and do all this stuff

and crush the SATs and take the extra

credit classes and all this and they all

do it and then they go to college and

how you doing? They take six hours of

class instead of four and they're just

going. But eventually, she says, if you

don't have that passion, you just burn

out. And so you're right about the

energy part. I think it's both knowledge

and you put in more cycles.

>> Yeah. It makes me think of maybe this is

cliched in Silicon Valley because it

gets so oft repeated, but a lot of folks

listening will not have heard it, which

is if you're looking for the next sort

of technological breakthrough or

something on the edge, look for what the

nerds are doing on the weekends, right?

It's not just a great way to find what

might be coming around the corner in a

few years. It's a great way to find the

people to bet on who are already using

their excess their free time to work on

these things. No doubt. I think of Bri

Pettis and 3D printing. I mean, I can

just go down the list.

>> And by the way, that's another advantage

of going to the epicenter is there's

more people doing that all the time.

>> Let's talk about people might be

surprised by this, but Bob Dylan, right?

I think this is just like the

quintessential example. Why is he

relevant to what we're talking about?

When this idea popped in my head, I had

finished a third biography and

contrasted it with these other two and I

just saw all these patterns. You know,

VC is a game of pattern recognition. I

guess my brains just developed. I was

like, "Oh my god, I saw this kind of

lock thing where these three people had

all done the same thing." And one was a

basketball coach, one was a restaurant

tour, and the other was Bob Dylan. You

know, not people you would not industry,

oh, this is where you should get career

development advice, right? There's a

part of the Dylan story that most people

wouldn't know unless they had read all

the biographies or maybe seen the

Scorsesei documentary, but the new movie

misses the whole thing, which is the

pre-new York Bob Dylan was hanging out

in Minnesota studying folk music at such

a deep level that I feel confident in

saying when he left he knew more about

folk music than any other human in

Minnesota. and he was borrowing, maybe

that's even a euphemism, he was stealing

his friends albums. He was going into

the record store into these listening

booths. Like he knew all there was to

know and had studied every bit of it.

And he's referred to by Scorsese as a

music expeditionary.

And the people that knew him in New York

said he could mimic any one song. It's

not what you would think of when you

hear a Dylan song that he had kind of

mastered the bedrock underneath and then

started innovating. Picasso, by the way,

the same thing. [snorts] Perfect realist

painter at age 14. If you go to the

Barcelona Picasso Museum, it's in

geographic order and you're kind of

shocked at how good a realist this this

kid was before he went and did this

other thing. That bedrock knowledge I

think is so differentiating

>> for someone to have [clears throat] all

the history and then to start doing the

innovation. What was the before and

after on Dylan sort of Minnesota

New York City and why is that such an

important

>> but it was and just to even pile on more

on this kind of studious part of Bob

Dylan he did a podcast series for a

while where he just walked through all

these different genres of music and

>> you're talking about Bob Dylan himself.

Oh, I didn't realize this.

>> You can go find it. He stopped, but he

and then that book he put out of the 50

best songs, the coffee table book that

came out two years ago, it's incredible

the amount of knowledge he has about

songs, [snorts] you know, outside of his

genre, everything. So, he's a clear

student of what he's doing. I think this

is well known and is covered at the

beginning of the movie. He went to New

York to find Woody Guthrie. probably the

single kind of most deterministic and

ambitious mentor pursuit story that I've

ever heard of. [laughter] Like he

hitchhiked there with no money.

>> Mhm.

>> And found him and became friends with

him.

>> This echoes back to go where the action

is also.

>> Oh, no doubt. And by the way, he landed,

you know, in Manhattan at the center of

the folk music scene and all those

people he was studying when he was

listening in Minnesota, they were all

there.

>> You know, he got to know them all. If

that doesn't happen, I don't think Dylan

happens. How relevant do you think the

go where the action is now considering

the access to information

using chat GPT or other tools etc etc

etc maybe less so access to mentors

although you can have virtual

relationships but how how relevant do

you think that is I've got my own

opinion but

>> you could certainly

have the type of peer and mentor

experiences that are remote. I have a

great anecdote about Mr. Beast in the

book that we could talk about that was a

remote one, but the benefits of being in

and around a whole bunch of people that

are chasing the same thing is so high

like and I think the intuition is, oh

well, it's going to be even more

competitive, so why would I go? It

wouldn't it be better to try and do this

in a town where it's less of a big deal?

But the problem is your learning is

impacted. Your access to peers and

mentors is drastically reduced and then

probably most importantly your

optionality gets cut so dramatically.

People think that a lot of success

stories they attribute it to luck but

you know there's that famous saying luck

is when preparation meets opportunity.

And when you're in the epicenter, both

your preparation and your opportunity go

up, you know, 10x. And so your ability

to just have that lucky moment where you

get brought into something is so much

higher.

>> So the lucky moment is, I think, really

important to underscore in terms of

going where the action is because

there's a lot you can do virtually, but

let's just say you're using chatbt,

you're going to get what you prompt. In

other words, like you're asking for

something. Yeah.

>> And that can take you down a rabbit

hole, but there at least in my lived

experience, and certainly I still see

this happening.

>> When I moved to Silicon Valley in 2000,

and then I look back at my angel

investing career, I look back at all

these collaborations. The vast majority

of them did not come from me going out

with an agenda and seeking something.

They came from serendipitous

bumping into somebody at a coffee shop.

I literally met Naval Ravikov because I

was hitting on his girlfriend at the

time when she was getting her coffee.

Didn't realize they were [laughter]

together. And then you look at Garrett

Camp, Kevin Rose. These are like at a

barbecue. I met Kevin Rose. And you go

down the list and you look at all of

these formative, massively impactful

personally and professionally

relationships. They almost all came from

serendipity. and you just don't seem to

get that density unless you're in the

center of the action. And perhaps it's

easier to relocate yourself. I'm sure it

is when you have fewer responsibilities.

But God, I can't even imagine what my

life would have looked like had I not

left Long Island and then ultimately

moved to Silicon Valley.

>> Same for me. I had thought about the

notion of venture capital and practicing

it and probably would have jumped at any

job I could have got. Like when I was at

Mcomes here in Austin, I tried to get an

interview at Austin Ventures like I

didn't get one but had they said yes

maybe I practice there and I I'm glad

that didn't happen. Going and practicing

it where I did was the exact right place

to do it. I do think if you can because

there are financial constraints you know

if you want to be great at a field and

that field has an epicenter I think you

should go

>> and there are different types of

epicenters too like you think about

let's just say AI not to repeatedly bang

that drum but you could just say okay AI

first thing that comes to mind Silicon

Valley but this is going to be a bit of

a digression but I remember asking Derek

Civers a friend of mine amazing

entrepreneur kind of philos philosopher,

programmer, people can look him up. But

I asked him, who's the first person who

comes to mind when you think of the word

successful? And he said, well, actually

the most interesting or more interesting

question might be, who's the third

person who comes to mind? Because I

might say something really obvious like

Richard Branson, but is he successful? I

don't really know what his goals were.

So I'd have to compare his goals to his

outcomes. And then you get to the third.

Similarly with an epicenter you could

say Silicon Valley first but there might

be something that is dense in learning

but has other advantages like I think

it's the University of Wateroo but one

of these universities where industry is

trying to raid the academic program

because it's so strong in terms of

teaching the technical side right so

there's so many different ways to

approach it but let's talk about a

virtual example you mentioned Mr. beast.

Could you describe that story?

>> I actually heard it on a podcast, but I

had it I also got a chance to talk to

Jimmy Donaldson, so we got it firsthand.

When he was infatuated [clears throat]

with YouTube, he was one of the first

people that was infatuated with YouTube.

His parents were rightfully trying to

get him to go to school in college,

which he wasn't doing because he was

playing around on on YouTube all day. He

met three other people who were equally

fascinated with YouTube. And [snorts]

this is a virtual epicenter story, but

it's really a peer story. One of my six

principles is embrace your peers. And I

think far too many people have sharp

elbows to peers cuz they think, you

know, they're climbing the ladder and

they've got to beat these people. And

the world's just way too prosperous to

have that mindset. like you can learn so

much and get so much value from

co-climbing

that you should definitely do that and I

think it's [snorts] not taught enough

and people don't do it enough but Jimmy

happened on these three people and they

got on a Skype call he said 20 hours a

day

>> sounds like Jimmy

>> for [laughter] years they shared best

practices on this call which

>> apparently in that world like the color

of the icon on the post you do on

Instagram to send them to YouTube like

all little these little bitty esoteric

things can impact conversion and he said

when he was talking about this that they

all became millionaires and he said if

you or any random individual had been a

fifth person on those calls you would

have too

>> you know because of of that and it's

just a wonderful example of how peers he

on this podcast said something that was

very clever. He took the 10,000 hours

thing from Gladwell and said, "Well,

there were four of us spending 10,000

hours and then sharing ideas, so you get

40,000 hours of expertise."

>> How would you suggest people who are not

on YouTube where you can identify

outliers perhaps I shouldn't say easily

in this day and age? I mean, it's it's a

sea of participants. But how should

people go about seeking peers? And do

you rank order your principles in a way

for instance?

Do you want to first check the box if

you can of go where the action is and

then embrace your peers because the

level will be higher? I think about for

instance my experience in Silicon

Valley. It could have just as easily for

something else been Nashville or New

York City or who knows Shanghai. I mean,

it just depends on what you're doing.

The mentors, let's just say like Mike

Maples Jr. who taught me the very basic

ropes of angel investing. Without him,

like I don't go zero to one in terms of

having any basic literacy or access. So

that was like the first rung on the

ladder. But then once I was in, you look

at people who were in a sense just

getting started at the time. I mean,

holy [ __ ] some of them have really

exploded. I mean, they've all done

really well like Kevin Rose, Naval.

Yeah,

>> Chris Saka, the latter goes on forever,

but like 49 rungs after that initial

step up, 0 to one, it was all peer-

driven, right?

>> And those guys, we were we were

comparing notes the whole way.

>> See, that's the thing I would say, first

of all, I would practice it wherever you

are. I'd practice it virtually. I'd

practice it locally. And if you can move

to the F Center, I'd practice it there.

I don't know that it's an eitheror

thing. You can have multiple groups of

peers. You can have multiple circles of

peers. But I think there's only two

tests and one is trust. There are people

in this world who view everything as a

zero sum game and they will elbow you

out the first chance they can get. And

so those shouldn't be your peers. Those

people you should quickly push to the

side. So trust and then this shared

interest in learning

>> and if they are equally learning on

their own dime in their free time

[laughter] which is my test for whether

you actually truly are passionate about

something if they're doing that also

that's perfect and those experiences

you've talked about I've had so many of

them myself they get excited to tell you

what they just learned right and then

you reciprocate and by the way Mike's a

great example I have a both a passion

and a lot of respect for people that are

writers in their industry and Buffett

did it and Howard Marx did it who I

benefited greatly from. I tried my

entire career to write quite a bit but

Mike [snorts] does this. Mike's very

>> he's a huge sharer when it comes to his

knowledge about the subject matter and

>> pattern excellent book also

>> so great

>> Mike I'm hoping to see him again soon

it's been a minute we've talked about

Mr. beast Bob Dylan in both cases kind

of like poor kids with nothing to lose,

right? In a sense, not in any destitute

sense, but they're starting at like

>> futons and ramen, right?

>> He was just interviewed at Dealbook also

and his mother was in the front row who

apparently works for him now.

>> [laughter]

>> So he was telling the story about when

he went to tell her he was dropping out

of college.

>> You know, similar to the McConna story,

not quite as abrupt, but Jimmy's being

more abrupt, but you know, of course,

she's she's happy now. [laughter]

>> Yeah. It all worked out. I mean, there's

always a little survivorship bias, but

no doubt. No doubt.

>> Let's [clears throat] talk about Danny

Meyer because I want to give an example

of someone who gave something up.

>> Yeah.

>> To then pursue X instead of A, B, or C.

Could you say a little bit about Danny?

You know, I've interviewed him on the

podcast. I might have met him through

you. I don't even remember how I

initially connected with him, but who is

Danny Meyer and what is this kind of

genesis story of Danny Meer, the

restaurant?

>> It's funny. When someone asked me who is

Danny Meyer, I feel compelled the first

thing to say he's one of the most

genuine humans on the planet. Yeah,

>> just a wonderful

>> for sure.

>> But he is also one of the most

celebrated restaurant tours of our time.

He was working for a company that sold

these devices that clip onto clothes so

you can't steal them from a retail

store. Yeah.

>> And he was making good money. He was

making about $200,000 a year. And this

is

>> at the time

>> 40 years ago. So real money.

>> Real money.

>> And he had convinced himself he was

going to be a lawyer. I guess a lot of

people convinced themselves of that. and

he was about to take the LSET and he was

out to dinner with his uncle and you

know his uncle was probing him and

probing him and oh yeah he's going to

take the LSET and he I think his uncle

sensed a lack of real conviction about

this thing this person this human was

going to do and [snorts] he literally

said to him why are you doing this you

know you want to be a restaurant tour

and when you read Danny's book he did

spend a ton of time in his youth being

fascinated with restaurants and to the

point where he would take copious notes

like prior to even doing this. So his

family had a reason to know that he had

this deep passion.

>> But it's interesting. It's an uncle,

right? I don't know that a parent is

going to jump in [clears throat] and say

[laughter] that. And maybe that's an

advantage I have not knowing the readers

of my book in giving him this permission

to do things that aren't necessarily

pragmatic. But anyway, his uncle said,

"You should start a restaurant." And he

took the test. He never submitted the

scores to a university and very soon

thereafter enrolled in some vocational

restaurant courses and took a job. He

took the first job he could get which

was a front office job at a restaurant

that was making about a tenth the salary

that he was making in the sales job

>> and went on to you know Grammarcy

Tavern. I mean, all these iconic

restaurants, then Shake Shack, then I

mean, just dot dot dot dot dot.

>> Yeah. And I we walk through in detail

his path once he made this intention.

And one of the variables that my

coowriter and I were looking for as we

added stories to the book was this

moment of intentionality. We didn't want

people that fell into a job and were

successful. We wanted people that had

made a decision, usually a pivot, to

say, "I'm going to go do this now."

>> Mhm. And once he had made that decision,

not only did he take that job, but he he

took advantage [clears throat] of being

in that restaurant to learn about the

multiple functions, but then he set up a

tour through Europe as a stage in

multiple places where he's working for

free basically.

>> I'm so glad you brought this up cuz I

wouldn't have brought it up myself, but

this is going to relate in a in a

second. I've run a bunch of competitions

for, let's just say, creating artwork

for [snorts]

PDFs slash like free books I'm going to

put out or whatever. And there's always

a big hub where folks get some folks get

very upset and they say, "Oh, you want

people to work for free?" And I'm like,

"Well, there's going to be a winner."

It's like, "If you don't want to

participate, don't participate."

[laughter] But there's always this kind

of shaking of the fist like, "Ah, it's

so unfair. You want people to work, do

work for free." When I look at almost

every example of someone who became the

equivalent of Danny Meyer in their

world,

they did a lot that was unpaid almost

always. I'm sure there are exceptions,

but it's like you staging is a great

example in the restaurant world where

it's like, okay, you want to work at a

restaurant where where you're going to

have the highest density of learning and

you don't know [ __ ] like guess what?

they [laughter]

they probably don't want to pay you a

whole lot cuz it's actually going to be

a bit of a drain on their resources to

show you around and teach you how to

work your station and do all this stuff.

So, I would just encourage people to not

be allergic to that. And the way I got

in a sense my foot in the door in

Silicon Valley was I volunteered at TAI

the indis entrepreneur. I volunteered at

your entire I volunteered [laughter]

with all of these nonprofit groups

>> and quickly realized that most

volunteers are doing the absolute

minimum to be volunteers. And if you

just do 10% more, it doesn't take much.

I would just refill people's water

glasses and stuff after I finished

taking their tickets for an event. And

suddenly the producers of this event who

were also doing it but had like real

jobs, I mean I had a job at a college

shirt and I was working a lot. They were

like, "Wow, this kid's a go-getter

because he's refilling these water

glasses. Let's give him more

responsibility." And that's how I ended

up connecting with all these speakers

and everything. Just did some stuff for

free on the weekends. It didn't take a

lot.

>> There's a story in the book that's

actually hard to believe. We profile

this woman, Jen Atkins, who's a hair

stylist. [clears throat]

It's an incredible story. But the one

anecdote, she's rising in her career and

things are starting to work and she has

jobs and she's getting paid. She would

go to fashion week in Paris and sneak in

the back door and volunteer [snorts] to

do the hair of the models on stage. like

snuck in [laughter] like not supposed to

be there just to get reps with these top

models in this environment.

>> Incredible. It

>> It sounds unfathomable that someone

would do that. She did it multiple

times.

>> And she did it.

>> Yes.

>> What ended up happening after that? I

don't know her story.

>> She's become probably the most

successful hair stylist of our time.

[laughter]

It's an incredible story.

How do you suggest

people who are maybe they're doing A, B,

and C right now, they're listening to

this and they say, "All right, I want to

take the leap. I want to do Z. I want to

do whatever the off-men option is."

>> Yeah.

>> They might have to have a conversation

with parent. They might have to have a

conversation with a spouse. They might

have to have a conversation with who

knows, whoever the the most important

people are in their lives. How might

they approach that? And we're going to

talk about choosing paths in a second

cuz I do have a question about maybe how

to sanity check yourself in the world of

AI. But how do you suggest having those

conversations? Do you moonlight for a

while so it's not either or? Do you time

box it or make it time bound in a sense?

You're like, "Hey, just give me

permission to try this for 6 months, a

year, two years."

>> It's interesting that I think any of

those approaches is realistic. We

profile Sal Khan in the book of Khan

Academy and he told his wife he wanted

to go try it for a year.

>> Also, he worked at a hedge fund just

like Danny Meyer. He was making real

money.

>> Wow. I didn't realize that about

>> started working with his cousins across

the globe online doing these tutorial

exercises and ended up posting a few on

YouTube. They started working and he

told his wife, "I really want to go tilt

at this." He didn't even know what the

business model was and he went and

changed it. I think the real [snorts]

test comes back to

this passion element or we use a lot of

different words cuz passion's been kind

of considered trit but fascination

curiosity. If you have this deep desire

to know so much about this one thing

that that curiosity is so high, I think

the odds that that's not apparent to

whoever these people are you're trying

to convince is pretty low.

>> Mhm.

>> Cuz if you're going to tilt at something

that hard and if you're going to really

differentiate yourself by being that

learned in that field, I think it'd be

hard for someone to tell you not to go

do it, you know?

>> Yeah. It's not going to be easy and I

don't want it anyone to think that oh

just read this book and magic happens.

It requires effort and that's why this

test matters so much. This test of

whether you would learn about this thing

on your free time

>> and maybe are you already learning about

>> are you already learning about it on

your free time?

>> Yes. No doubt

>> at least that one

>> you should be. You should be you I doubt

you turn it on history.

>> Yeah. Well, actually, I I have an

example of someone who just turned it

on. We have a chapter called Never Too

Late, which is where the Scon thing is

because that happened when he was close

to 40. Another local Austinite, Bert

Tito Beverage, started his endeavor in

the spirit business.

>> So, while I was just thinking about him

while driving here for no good reason,

>> at the age of 40, he's watching a PBS

special.

>> This is also hard to believe. He's

watching a PBS special and back when

probably when there were only four

channels or whatever, but they said on

the screen they said, "Take a blank