Target - The Rise and Fall?
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[Music]
Target has been a major US retailer
going back to the 1960s. That first
location in Roseville, Minnesota was
opened by a company called Dayton that
was already a wellestablished owner of
higher-end department stores. But that
lowerpric discount concept combined with
the unique marketing proved to be so
successful over the following decades
that it slowly became their main focus.
In the early 2000s, they renamed the
company Target Corporation shortly
before opening their 1,000th location.
Today, it is ranked among the top 10
retailers in the country with over $100
billion in sales coming from almost
2,000 locations that are spread across
every US state. Clearly, it is still a
massive company that continues to have
an impact on many of our lives. However,
looking back on over 60 years of
history, I would say that this past
decade has been the most eventful and
probably the most concerning. After
reaching its peak valuation in 2021,
shares of Target stock have lost over
65% of their value, representing almost
$90 billion and showing that investors
have lost a lot of confidence. Keep in
mind that this is during a period where
most of the stock market has been
rising. their biggest rival. Walmart,
for example, has just about doubled in
value over that time. So far in 2025,
Target has been among the 20 worst
performing stocks in the S&P 500, losing
over a third of its value since the year
started. Part of this stems from the
fact that sales have been mostly
unchanged over the past few years. In
fact, 2023 marked their first comparable
sales decline compared to the previous
year, going all the way back to 2016.
Most recently, they announced that they
would be laying off 1,800 corporate
employees, representing 8% of their
corporate workforce. I can continue on
showing signs of struggle, including
their CEO of over a decade resigning and
their incoming CEO recognizing that they
are not realizing their full potential.
But I think most people are in agreement
that Target is in a bit of a panic,
maybe for the first time ever. So, I
think it would be interesting to take a
closer look at what has been happening
by outlining what I believe to be four
of the biggest factors behind their
recent struggles. Starting off with
leadership and I realized that the
success or failure of almost any company
could be traced back to the people in
charge of it. But this has been kind of
a unique situation. In 2013, Target was
having a lot of issues, including rising
competition from online retailers, a
failing expansion effort into Canada,
and a massive data breach. right at the
holiday season that leaked the credit
card information of 40 million
customers. All of that sparked a
leadership change where Brian Cornell
was hired as the company's new CEO. And
for a while, he was receiving a lot of
praise. The center of his plan was to
invest billions of dollars into
remodeling locations, starting private
labels, and building an inventory system
where the stores themselves would
essentially function as warehouses to
fulfill online orders. It was a
controversial plan that reinforced their
commitment to physical locations and it
quickly started paying off. Just every
year it seemed like something massive
was happening. In 2018, the opening of
their new location in Vermont meant that
they were officially operating in all 50
states. In 2019, CNN named him business
CEO of the year. In 2020, Target was
actually helped by the pandemic,
particularly from people buying items
for their home since they were spending
so much time there. In 2021, the company
surpassed $100 billion in sales for the
first time ever, the same year as their
peak stock market valuation. That
partially motivated me to make a video
about how successful they were. So, I
recommend that video if you want to hear
more about the positives from before
these recent struggles. In 2022, Target
even ended their policy, saying that
their CEO had to retire at 65 years old
so that 63-year-old Brian Cornell could
sign a three-year extension to his
contract. Well, obviously, those have
not been the best 3 years, considering
some of those strategies have backfired
along with other questionable decisions
that I will talk about more as I go
through the list. But many people have
expressed the opinion that he should be
replaced with someone from outside the
company, which I think makes enough
sense. Somebody with fresh ideas that
was not involved in all the recent
decisions that brought them into this
panic. Well, his replacement was
announced to be Michael Fidelki, who has
served as the chief operating officer,
chief financial officer, and actually
started as an intern with the company
over 20 years ago. Pretty much somebody
that could not be less from outside the
company. The stock price fell the day of
the announcement, reflecting the fact
that investors do not have much faith
that he can reverse these trends. And to
be clear, I'm not saying that the
company is doomed with him in charge.
Only time will tell. But there's been a
lot of doubt surrounding Target's
leadership lately. Next up on my list is
going to be discretionary products,
meaning non-essential items that people
are more likely to buy when they have
more money to spend. Well, over the past
few years, you probably see where this
is going. Economic factors like
inflation and interest rates have led to
lower discretionary spending, which has
been an issue for stores like Target
that continue to rely pretty heavily on
it. Walmart opened their first Super
Center in 1988 that included an expanded
grocery section. And 7 years later,
Target followed their lead when they
opened their first Super Target. Over
the past 30 years, Target has slowly
built up their grocery sales to account
for almost a quarter of their business.
But Walmart has been way more aggressive
with it, currently accounting for about
60% of their business. Since people tend
to continue buying groceries even when
money is tight, you can understand how
Target has been comparatively more
affected by inflation. I also want to
mention that recent tariffs have been a
similar factor complicating things
considering Target typically imports a
higher percentage of their merchandise
from foreign countries compared to
Walmarts. And a lot of that difference
is attributed to the fact that groceries
tend to be sourced domestically. So to
summarize here, target customers spend a
lot of money at the store that they do
not need to be spending, and that has
proved to be an issue in the current
economy. Next up on the list would be
DEI initiatives, which stands for
diversity, equity, and inclusion. Right
away, I want to recognize that this can
be an extremely touchy subject, so I'm
going to try to be sensitive without
going into too many details here. In
2020, George Floyd was murdered in
Minneapolis, which happens to be the
location of Target's headquarters. Brian
Cornell said that the event motivated
him to start these DEI initiatives
because it could have been one of his
Target team members. And these were
along the lines of setting hiring goals
for minority employees and carrying more
products for minority owned businesses,
including a promise to spend more than
$2 billion on blackowned businesses by
2025. Well, in early 2025, Target
announced that they would be ending most
of these initiatives. It was only a few
days after Donald Trump was sworn in as
president and very likely a response to
his policies against similar programs.
But then Target was met with massive
backlash for their decision, including
an organized boycott that is still
ongoing. Target has recognized that the
decision has hurt their sales and even
two of the daughters of the co-founder
of the company have come out against the
decision saying that they were shocked
and dismayed by it. I want to be clear
that other major companies including
Walmart have ended similar initiatives
without receiving nearly as much
backlash. And I would guess that smaller
response is likely because Target has a
much more left-leaning customer base and
seem to be more vocal and passionate
about these efforts in the first place.
I also want to mention that there was
some controversy back in 2023 concerning
the LGBTQ themed merchandise that they
were selling during Pride Month. It was
controversial to begin with considering
there were concerns about employee
safety partially fueled by this false
rumor going around on social media that
they were marketing these bathing suits
designed for transgender people toward
children. Ultimately, they got rid of
most of these displays. And as you can
imagine, that upset a lot of people.
Again, these are sensitive and divisive
issues that they might be better off
avoiding altogether, especially if they
are not going to take a clear stance on
them. To me, anyway, it feels like they
are trying to make everybody happy, but
then upsetting everyone in the process.
For my final reason behind their recent
troubles, I'm going to be a little more
general and group together a few
concerns by talking about the customer
experience, which is a little surprising
to me. For as long as I can remember,
Target has always had such a great
reputation for being a fun place to shop
and discover stuff. I mean, people
affectionately refer to it as Tar
because it can feel kind of fancy for a
discount store, but lately people have
been questioning if it still lives up to
that French sounding pronunciation. Of
course, it is all a matter of opinion.
So, please let me know if you have
noticed any differences in your shopping
experiences lately, but just to mention
a few of the more common concerns. Some
people have complained about the
merchandise not being as trendy or
attractive as it used to be, possibly
due to a greater focus on private label
brands and some inventory issues
following the pandemic when people
shifted their spending habits. Some of
the recent attempts to address this
issue include partnerships with Kate
Spade and Champion, both of which seem
to be attracting customers. But then
something that could potentially make
the situation worse would be their
partnership with Ulta ending in August
of 2026. Those two started working
together to establish these tiny Ulta
stores within Target stores, similar to
what Kohl's has been doing with Sephora
during their peak year in 2021 and have
attracted a lot of customers into the
store from it. But they have officially
announced that they will not be renewing
their contract. So that could
potentially hurt sales moving forward.
Other common complaints include messy
stores or even unpleasant employees.
Both of which could be attributed to
that plan where the stores started
functioning as fulfillment hubs for the
online orders. Today 96% of orders are
filled at the stores instead of
warehouses as opposed to Walmart where
it is more like half and half. So you
know Target employees are too busy
filling orders instead of stocking
shelves, helping the customers or
keeping the stores clean. However,
lately they have been experimenting and
trying to figure out which stores are
better built to fill these online orders
with the goal of elevating the guest
experience. So, if all goes according to
plan, they will be able to fill these
orders without sacrificing cleanliness
or availability within the stores. At
the very least, it seems like they are
aware of these customer complaints and
are taking steps to address them. Let me
know in the comments what do you think
about Target and how has your opinion
changed over the past five or even 10
years? And maybe more importantly, what
do you see for the future? With the new
CEO and some of the recent changes, it
feels like an important time for them
where things can either start to make a
recovery or continue to fall beyond
repair. I think the core of the issue
here is that Target is not as well-liked
as it used to be and is giving customers
more reason to switch over to one of the
competitors. So, I guess I should ask,
what do they need to do to fix their
reputation and start that recovery? And
finally, do you agree with my reasons
behind their struggles, or do you think
something should be added or subtracted
from the list? And any other thoughts
you have about Target, leave them in the
comments. I'd like to hear what you have
to say. Thank you for watching.
[Music]
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
Target, a major US retailer since the 1960s, evolved from a discount concept into one of the top 10 retailers nationwide. However, the past decade has been challenging, marked by a significant drop in stock value (over 65% since 2021), stagnant sales, and corporate layoffs. The video identifies four primary factors contributing to these struggles: questionable leadership decisions, particularly regarding the internal CEO succession; over-reliance on discretionary products, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and tariffs compared to competitors like Walmart with larger grocery sales; controversies surrounding the reversal of DEI initiatives and LGBTQ+ merchandise, leading to boycotts and divided customer sentiment; and a decline in customer experience due to less trendy merchandise, messy stores, and strained employee interactions, partly stemming from stores functioning as online order fulfillment hubs. Target is now at a critical point, needing to address these issues to recover its reputation and market position.
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