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Wall Street Sinks on Greenland Risk | Prof G Markets

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Wall Street Sinks on Greenland Risk | Prof G Markets

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909 segments

0:00

Today's number 25. That's how many years

0:04

old Wikipedia turned last week. Sadly,

0:07

that also means it can no longer date

0:09

Leo DiCaprio.

0:15

Welcome to Profy Markets. I'm Edson. It

0:17

is January 21st. Let's check in on

0:20

yesterday's market vitals. The major

0:23

indices sold off in their worst session

0:25

since October. Bitcoin dropped below

0:28

$90,000. The dollar weakened and the

0:31

yield on 10-year treasuries jumped to

0:33

its highest level since August.

0:37

Okay, what's happening?

0:41

The S&P plunged 2% yesterday, erasing

0:44

its gains for the year as Wall Street

0:46

reckoned with President Trump's

0:47

escalating threats to acquire Greenland.

0:51

Volatility spiked with the VIX, the

0:53

market so-called fear gauge, hitting its

0:55

highest level since November. And you

0:58

guessed it, gold hit another record high

1:00

as investors ran for cover. The drama is

1:03

playing out in Daros right now as

1:05

business and political leaders gather

1:07

for the World Economic Forum. President

1:09

Trump arrived yesterday and he agreed to

1:12

meet with officials to discuss

1:13

Greenland, but he says, quote, "There

1:16

can be no going back on his plan to

1:18

seize the territory." Meanwhile,

1:20

Greenland's prime minister is urging the

1:22

island to prepare for an invasion, which

1:25

is still unlikely, but no longer

1:28

unthinkable.

1:29

>> How far are you willing to go to acquire

1:31

Greenland?

1:32

>> You'll find out.

1:33

>> All right. Joining us now to tell us

1:35

what's happening in the markets, how

1:37

this all relates to Greenland. We're

1:39

speaking with everyone's favorite,

1:41

Justin Wolfers, professor of public

1:42

policy and economics at the University

1:45

of Michigan. Justin, thank you for

1:48

[music] joining us. Would you believe me

1:49

if I told you I was coming to you live

1:51

from Greenland?

1:53

[laughter]

1:54

>> I'm not sure I would. I'm not sure I

1:56

would. [snorts]

1:57

>> Looks the same. Looks like you're you're

1:59

you are in Ann Arbor right now. Is that

2:01

right?

2:01

>> It's as cold as Greenland, mate. And we

2:04

have been taken over by federal

2:06

authority as well.

2:07

>> Right. Right. It's it's not it's not too

2:10

not too dissimilar. Well, what's

2:12

happened in the markets is quite

2:15

astounding really. Stocks are plunging,

2:19

uh, yields are rising, all the safe

2:22

haven assets like gold are hitting

2:25

record highs. I guess let's just start

2:27

with your initial reactions. It's kind

2:29

of remarkable what we're seeing here, at

2:30

least to me. Do you feel the same way?

2:33

>> Look, um, the thing that's more

2:35

remarkable than what's happening in the

2:36

markets is what's happening in the

2:37

world.

2:39

Um,

2:41

the president woke up and decided the

2:43

United States needed Greenland, which

2:45

had never been part of the US, well, not

2:47

never, in recent years, hadn't been part

2:49

of the US security planning at all. And

2:52

he's saying he wants to buy it, take it,

2:55

something it, rename it. No one's quite

2:58

sure what.

3:00

And he's putting tariffs

3:04

on countries who vent sent vast forces

3:08

of up to dozens of troops to defend

3:10

Greenland from American hostile

3:13

aggression. That is astonishing on its

3:14

face. I know that your podcast is called

3:17

Markets.

3:18

Mate, sometimes we got to pause on the

3:20

world. The world's where the action is.

3:22

So yes, markets are responded to this.

3:25

I guess the reason that the market's

3:27

response seems relevant to me is we see

3:30

a lot of crazy stuff um from the

3:34

president. We saw crazy stuff in the

3:36

past few weeks. We saw the Powell

3:38

investigation. We saw the invasion of

3:41

Venezuela and the capture of Madura. We

3:43

saw what happened in Iran. And so I find

3:47

that the markets help to give us a sense

3:50

of what's maybe real and what isn't. And

3:53

it seems that the markets are telling us

3:55

right now, this one's real. This one is

3:57

different. This one is actually giving

4:00

us pause. And it it feels almost like

4:03

we're back in April 2025.

4:07

Everyone's deciding to sell. So I guess

4:10

that's why it's kind of interesting to

4:12

me or or seems important. I guess my

4:15

question to you would be why is this

4:18

different or at least why do markets

4:20

maybe believe that this is different?

4:23

I'm not sure I'd give exactly the same

4:25

explanation that you would, Ed. Um,

4:27

>> okay,

4:28

>> let's say the president. So, here's the

4:30

problem, right? The bloke comes up with

4:32

a hairbrained idea every day. Nine out

4:35

of 10 times he tacos. Trump always

4:37

chickens out and the world moves on. And

4:39

so, if you're a trader, you want to

4:41

discount these because if you responded

4:43

to each and every one of them, you'd

4:45

sell off and then the next day the

4:47

markets would rise as it became clear it

4:48

wouldn't happen and then you lost a lot

4:49

of money. So you got to scale your

4:52

response to the likelihood that Trump

4:54

will actually follow through.

4:57

If Trump follows through in the short

4:59

run, the obvious is he launches a trade

5:02

war with the European Union. Um because

5:04

remember he's talking about 25% tariffs

5:06

by June. You can't just, you know, it's

5:09

not as much as he's picked out Germany

5:11

that he wants to go after the United

5:12

Kingdom. You don't just declare a trade

5:14

war on particular members of the EU. The

5:16

entire union responds. the EU plus

5:20

Norway plus the United Kingdom

5:21

collectives 22% of American exports. So

5:24

that's a big economic threat right

5:26

there. There are two other things you

5:28

learn if he's serious. One is if he

5:30

follows through with a trade war,

5:31

there's actually a chance he follows

5:33

through with a war war.

5:36

>> That then is the end of NATO

5:39

and the end of the postwar world order.

5:43

That in turn is the end of American

5:45

military leadership. we move into some

5:48

complicated world and you can get one of

5:50

these guys who likes to point at the

5:51

globe and tell you how complicated that

5:54

gets. All I know is that Ed, in the the

5:56

brief time you and I have been alive, we

5:59

haven't seen fighting on our shores. And

6:02

that's not true for our grandparents.

6:04

And so

6:06

even if you don't like what we've had,

6:08

it's been remarkably successful relative

6:11

to the rest of human history that we've

6:14

grown up without wars on our shores.

6:17

So there's some chance that that's the

6:18

end of that for the United States, the

6:22

world, economic productive activity, it

6:26

would be catastrophic. Um, one war is a

6:30

lot of wars. Walking closer to one war

6:33

is a lot of problems. I think the

6:35

markets have probably priced in and so

6:39

and then the other part is so he's

6:41

launched a trade war a new trade war

6:42

with you. The other part is you then

6:44

learn tariff mc tariff face wants to

6:46

tariff everyone at will deals don't mean

6:48

anything. The idea that we'd get through

6:50

2025 and that was the end of tariffs cuz

6:52

we would have done deals is clearly

6:54

hopeless and we just have trade wars and

6:57

trade uncertainty for the next 3 years

6:59

ahead of us as well. Those are really

7:00

really big generational shifts. Um I

7:05

know I wrote a study years ago looking

7:07

at the stock market effect of the

7:09

invasion of Iraq. We found that if the

7:12

diff the stocks were valued 15% lower if

7:15

the US invaded Iraq relative to if it

7:17

didn't. So if you thought something like

7:19

that, if you thought Greenland were

7:21

Iraq,

7:22

there's lots of reasons to think it's

7:24

not right, you would expect stocks to

7:26

fall on the order of 10 to 20%. Today

7:29

they fell on the order of 1 to 2%. So my

7:31

interpretation is they've built in a 1

7:34

in 10 chance the guy is serious.

7:37

In some sense, markets are really useful

7:39

here that are a wakeup call. It's not

7:41

about the probability he follows

7:43

through, it's about the consequences if

7:44

he follows through, which is they're

7:46

screaming, "This is terrible." But

7:48

they're not screaming screaming. If you

7:49

remember liberation day, they screamed,

7:51

they howled. We weren't quite used to

7:53

the Trump twostep of two steps forward

7:55

and an immediate backdown.

7:57

If we're in a world in which he never

7:59

followed through on anything, of course,

8:00

markets would react to nothing. The

8:01

problem is that the president actually

8:03

does sometimes do things. You could ask

8:05

the Venezuelans about that. And the

8:07

problem is we couldn't tell before the

8:09

fact if he was serious about Venezuela

8:10

and then we learned after the fact he

8:12

was. And I would like to think he's not

8:13

serious about Greenland, but I don't

8:15

want to wake up tomorrow and

8:17

all of a sudden discover he was. Um, so

8:20

I think this is the markets putting in

8:22

only a small chance, but it's a small

8:25

chance of a big bad outcome.

8:29

Just looking at what he's said recently,

8:32

it does seem that he's somewhat serious

8:35

from what he's been saying. That's a

8:38

hard question to answer, but he's at

8:41

least trying to present as serious. He

8:44

also sent that text to the prime

8:46

minister of Norway saying that he

8:48

wouldn't be doing this if he had won the

8:50

Nobel Peace Prize. This is maybe like a

8:54

hyperbolic question, but I I I don't

8:56

think it is. At what point do you think

9:00

it's fair to say that he's actually lost

9:03

his mind?

9:04

>> Yeah.

9:04

>> And I mean that like very legitimately.

9:06

And not in the sense that oh, he's has

9:09

dementia and he's just totally crazy,

9:11

but I mean he's clearly operating on a

9:16

different level of reality. He's decided

9:19

that the world order as as it is now is

9:23

unacceptable. that that globalism this

9:27

is the end of it and we're kind of going

9:29

back to the 1800s. I mean it appears

9:32

that he might have gotten I don't know

9:34

so drunk on power so deluded by

9:38

something that he might have actually

9:40

like lost his mind here. Is that too

9:44

far?

9:44

>> I've had the same thought and look I

9:46

like to speak to my expertise. I'm a PhD

9:48

economist and so there are many

9:50

questions where and I've increasingly

9:52

had to do this say I think you should

9:54

talk to a psychiatrist not an economist

9:56

but what's striking is that the most

9:58

important economic question of the day

10:00

is best answered by a psychiatrist.

10:02

That's your point

10:03

>> right

10:03

>> and it's a profoundly important point.

10:04

There are actually ethical reasons why

10:06

psychiatrists are not meant to you're

10:07

not meant to speak up about someone whom

10:09

you've not examined.

10:11

>> Yeah.

10:11

>> Um and I I hope you don't mind. I I I

10:14

might take your idea a little deeper

10:15

because I've been thinking about this

10:17

quite a lot. I I certainly don't think

10:19

if the president as he currently is

10:21

acting as rational or at least we should

10:23

put a high probability on that. And that

10:26

worries me and I'm like, "Oh, wow. What

10:27

happens if once every hundred years we

10:30

have a leader, a world leader who is

10:33

bonkers?" We've certainly had people who

10:35

were bonkers.

10:36

>> I think Adolf was bonkers.

10:38

>> I don't want to draw that comparison,

10:40

but the point is that's

10:41

>> it's happened.

10:42

>> Yeah.

10:43

Then I got to thinking about it. Indulge

10:45

me for a moment here. You would have

10:47

what sort of person would want to run

10:49

for president of the United States.

10:52

Who wakes up in the morning and thinks I

10:56

know I should run the free world? I and

11:00

I alone am uniquely qualified to run

11:04

this country and this country is the

11:06

largest economy with the largest

11:08

military in the world.

11:09

>> Yeah. I think if you ran a survey of

11:12

Americans, people with profound

11:14

personality disorders would be much more

11:17

likely to say yes than people without

11:18

profound personality disorders.

11:21

That's just a it's an obvious statement.

11:24

You could say, "Justin, run for

11:25

president tomorrow and I'd be like, are

11:27

you kidding? I'm going to teach econ 101

11:30

tomorrow and I'm worried I've got too

11:32

many students. I'm not qualified."

11:35

I hope you'd say the same, Ed.

11:37

[laughter]

11:38

>> I don't know. This pod's going pretty

11:40

well.

11:42

[laughter]

11:43

>> Boy, you give a bloke 30 under 30 and

11:45

all of a sudden he thinks he can walk on

11:47

water. But it's actually a really

11:49

interesting point because if that point

11:50

is correct, it says the amount of mental

11:53

illness among world leaders is likely

11:56

exorbitantly high. That in turn changes

12:00

how we ought to think about

12:01

institutions.

12:03

It says that we basically need to design

12:05

our political institutions so they're

12:07

lunatic proof. Yeah.

12:09

>> And in some sense you go back and you

12:10

read like you know the Federalist papers

12:13

you get a sense of this. They would

12:14

often talk about good versus evil

12:17

instead. But I think actually just

12:18

batshit versus not. After Nixon we had a

12:22

whole cleansing of like how do we

12:24

corruptionp proof the US government. And

12:26

I wonder whether people all around the

12:28

world ought to be thinking about how do

12:29

we mental healthp proof

12:32

>> our governments. And you know we are

12:34

meant to have checks and balances. And

12:36

our biggest problem right now, of

12:37

course, is Mike Johnson, which is we do

12:39

have checks and balances. They just

12:41

refuse to play. And they refuse to play

12:43

because the guy with the potentially the

12:45

mental health problem is also the most

12:46

charismatic figure in the country. And

12:48

maybe that's what a mental health

12:50

problem allows you to do. Anyway, that

12:51

was more about politics than markets.

12:53

Let's come back to markets. I think the

12:54

threat here is utterly dire. What I

12:56

haven't had a chance to do today is if I

12:58

wanted to make the case that it was what

13:00

I said a small probability of a horrible

13:02

outcome rather than it being a

13:03

moderately large probability of a

13:05

moderately bad outcome which I think is

13:06

what you were suggesting. I think the

13:09

way to tell the difference between our

13:10

two stories would be to look at what was

13:12

happening to way out of the money

13:13

options. I haven't had a chance to look.

13:15

So maybe some bright spark who's who's

13:18

in our audience has looked at way out of

13:20

the money options and can tell us how

13:22

they're behaving and and drop a note in

13:24

the comments. I think that would be good

13:25

advice. Okay, we're going to let you go

13:27

here. I I assume we're going to be

13:29

discussing this again. Probably maybe

13:33

tomorrow. Uh, who knows? Justin Wolf is

13:36

professor of public policy and economics

13:37

at the University of Michigan. Uh,

13:39

Justin, really appreciate it as always.

13:41

Great pleasure. We'll be right back. And

13:43

if you're enjoying the show so far, be

13:45

sure to like and subscribe to the Profod

13:47

YouTube channel at the link below.

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14:55

>> We're back with property markets.

14:58

Netflix's stock fell as much as 5% after

15:01

its forecast for the first quarter came

15:03

in below expectations. That reaction

15:05

overshadowed an otherwise solid quarter.

15:08

Revenue and earnings per share both beat

15:11

estimates up 18% and 31% year-over-year.

15:15

and fullear revenue came in at $45

15:18

billion, up 16% year-over-year. The

15:21

company also hit a major milestone,

15:23

reaching 325 million paid global

15:26

subscribers earlier in the day. Netflix

15:28

also officially revised its bid for

15:31

Warner Brothers Discovery, moving to an

15:33

allcash offer of $83 billion instead of

15:36

the previous mix of cash and stock. here

15:39

to discuss these earnings and also what

15:42

this new bid actually means. We are

15:45

speaking with Rohan Gwami, business

15:47

reporter at Semaphore. Rohan, thank you

15:50

for joining us.

15:50

>> Ed, happy to be here.

15:52

>> So, let's start with the earnings. Uh,

15:55

Netflix just reported earnings. The

15:57

stock sunk in after hours as much as 5%.

16:01

Um, which is kind of interesting because

16:04

they beat on earnings, they beat on

16:05

revenue. What do you make of the

16:07

earnings and what do you make of Wall

16:08

Street's reaction?

16:10

>> So, look, they they they they did beat

16:11

on both those fronts and and they guided

16:13

to around their midpoint for the full

16:15

year next year and they also had, you

16:16

know, a decent subscriber number, 325

16:18

million. That's a milestone for them.

16:20

But look, there's an overhang on this

16:21

stock. And as you and I have talked

16:23

about, Netflix is down, I think, 30 or

16:25

40% since rumors first started circling

16:28

about their interest in Warner Brothers,

16:30

uh, for a simple reason. They are great

16:31

builders. They are unproven buyers.

16:34

They've never done a big deal like this

16:35

before and uh their investors who have

16:38

counted on them for steady reliable

16:40

earnings growth are kind of in a wait

16:41

and see mode. So the call is going on

16:43

right now. Um Ted Sarandos and and his

16:46

coco are expected to sort of preview and

16:49

give us a little bit more information on

16:50

their thinking around this. But it also

16:51

comes as they've made a they've doubled

16:53

down on their Warner Brothers bid,

16:55

right? You know, they've this morning

16:56

announced what we've all known was

16:58

coming. They've flipped all cash. Uh

17:00

Warner's board has approved it. We got a

17:02

lengthy 500page proxy statement today,

17:05

which you know, I spent my entire lunch

17:06

hour reading. [laughter] Um, and look,

17:09

there's there's no doubt these guys

17:11

right now are telling the world they are

17:13

in it. They're in it to win it and they

17:14

could give a damn about the Ellison's.

17:16

>> Yeah. What's new about this bid? I mean,

17:19

we know that it's it's all cash now. Is

17:21

that the only thing that's new? What

17:23

have we learned about this new bid that

17:24

was just announced on Tuesday?

17:27

>> In terms of the actual bid, that's it.

17:29

That's the only new thing. It lets us

17:30

have a cleaner, although not perfect,

17:33

apples to apples comparison between

17:35

Paramount and Netflix's bid. [snorts]

17:38

The interesting thing, there are some

17:39

details that have come out in this proxy

17:41

filing, and as you know, when companies

17:42

are trying to combine, they make their

17:44

case to shareholders through a formal

17:46

document called a proxy statement,

17:48

right? that lays out all the financial

17:49

analysis that their bankers have done.

17:51

Uh the potential legal risks and the

17:54

most fun for reporters, a detailed

17:56

lengthy background to the solicitation,

17:58

which is a fancy way of basically saying

18:00

the storyline of how these two companies

18:02

came together. Thankfully, a lot of the

18:04

reporting out there was confirmed by

18:06

this background to the solicitation,

18:07

which is always good news for reporters.

18:09

The big thing that we finally as uh

18:12

reporters, as investors got to look at

18:13

was how Warner Brothers has decided to

18:16

value their spin-off business. Now,

18:18

remember, we've talked about this. This

18:19

is the business that they say is worth

18:21

anywhere from $3 to $5 a share, uh,

18:23

which Paramount says is worth a buck

18:26

generously, and which Netflix has said,

18:28

"We don't want anything to do with that.

18:30

Don't give it to us. We don't want to

18:30

touch it. Spin it off. We don't care."

18:32

So we finally got a valuation for that

18:33

business uh underpinned and justified by

18:36

some financial analysis that Allan and

18:37

company and and other bankers have done

18:39

for Warner Brothers. That was really the

18:40

big thing out of this.

18:42

>> Yeah. Yeah. Just your point earlier that

18:45

the the stock Netflix stock has slid

18:47

like 30 40% since the room has started

18:49

getting going. Talk a bit more about why

18:52

that's happening. We've also seen

18:54

obviously today some selling activity.

18:57

Um, but what's so bad about buying

19:01

another company like Warner Brothers? I

19:03

mean, what what are what are investors

19:04

so worried about here?

19:05

>> It's the uncertainty, right? This is

19:07

what executives and bankers call

19:09

execution risk, right? The ability for a

19:12

company to actually do something with

19:14

the assets they're picking up. And M&A

19:16

is littered. Generally, most big M&A

19:18

doesn't work. Keep in mind, Warner

19:21

Brothers Discovery itself is a child of

19:23

two and a half decades of crappy M&A

19:26

going back to AOL Time Warner, which was

19:28

the worst deal of all time by any

19:31

account, right? Um, so it's literally

19:34

genetic with this company. There's never

19:36

been a good deal for this company.

19:38

Anyone who's bought this thing has

19:39

almost immediately regretted it. AT&T

19:41

picked it up and immediately dumped it,

19:43

right? So, it's not a good asset. It's

19:45

kind of cursed, and investors aren't

19:46

superstitious, but it is kind of cursed.

19:48

It's also a big bite at Apple for, as we

19:49

were talking about earlier just now, a

19:51

company that has chosen to build, right?

19:53

Starting with House of Cards, but now,

19:56

you know, a multinational, multi-

19:58

language content business. Netflix has

20:00

been really good at coming up with hits,

20:03

executing on those hits, spending a lot

20:04

on those hits, but executing on those

20:06

hits. Now, they're picking up a content

20:08

library which has existed for decades

20:10

from, you know, decades here. And while

20:13

there's no question it's a valuable

20:15

content library, investors are a little

20:16

confused about why these guys who have

20:18

steadfastly time and time again when

20:20

they've been asked, "Would you buy this

20:21

company? Would you buy that company?"

20:22

Why this time is different, right? Why

20:24

Warner Brothers is so compelling to

20:26

them. Now, they've laid out the case.

20:27

They think that the streaming business

20:28

is going to be a $4.5 billion business,

20:30

I think, by 2030, which is meaningful

20:33

for a company like Netflix, which did

20:34

$50 billion of revenue or is expecting

20:36

to do around $50 billion of revenue next

20:38

year. But still, at the end of the day,

20:39

it's a big bite. Shareholders have to

20:41

pay for that. And if they don't see the

20:43

results immediately, you know, these

20:44

guys are skittish. These guys are

20:46

skittish in the best of times. And it is

20:47

not the best of times right now in the

20:48

markets.

20:49

>> So interesting. It's almost like the the

20:51

Netflix shareholders don't seem to want

20:53

this deal. Warner Brothers shareholders

20:56

don't seem to want this deal, or at

20:57

least they've been pushing for the

20:58

Paramount deal instead. I'm I'm kind of

21:01

wondering who who even wants this. Is it

21:03

is it literally just Ted Sarandos and

21:06

David Zazoff? Like like who's decided

21:09

that this is this is a good idea? Why is

21:11

this even happening? At this point,

21:13

>> history is decided by the victors. So,

21:15

you know what? If two years from now,

21:16

you and I are talking about this and

21:17

they've done a wonderful job, we'll be

21:18

saying, you know, they were so preient,

21:20

who were we to doubt them? But it is

21:22

kind of true to your point that nobody

21:24

seems particularly thrilled about this

21:26

process with the exception, yes, of

21:27

Warner Brothers board and of Netflix.

21:30

The one interesting thing I should have

21:31

mentioned earlier is we actually do have

21:33

an explanation for why uh Warner

21:35

Brothers went completely dark on

21:37

Paramount. And it actually helps explain

21:38

and answer your question of who really

21:40

wants this. Ted Sarandos really wants

21:42

this. Uh we know this because in his

21:44

lawyer's final message before the deal

21:46

was signed, his lawyers basically said,

21:48

"Look, Warner Brothers, we're prepared

21:50

to move on this right now. And if you

21:52

don't get back to us by tonight, we're

21:54

walking. We're done. It's a move called,

21:55

you know, you go pencils down. You

21:56

basically walk out. You explode the

21:58

deal." And Warner Brothers just rather

22:00

than risk losing Netflix said, "All

22:01

right, all right. All right, fine. We'll

22:03

go with you." They've got an executed

22:04

merger agreement. It's clear that Ted

22:06

Sarandos and you or I are both pretty

22:08

smart people. We're not Ted Sandos

22:10

smart. Ted Sarandos thinks there's a lot

22:12

of value for shareholders here. I don't

22:14

know if he's actually going to get it in

22:15

the end, but if history is any guide,

22:17

patience with that guy usually is

22:18

rewarded.

22:19

>> Yeah, just looking at the Netflix

22:21

business, what they're doing here. So,

22:23

they they doubled their ad revenue in

22:26

2025, which is interesting. It seems

22:28

like they're going to be leaning more

22:30

and more on advertising going forward.

22:32

Another thing that we've been seeing

22:34

recently, they're getting into

22:36

podcasting.

22:37

Just announced their first original

22:39

video podcast with Pete Davidson.

22:42

My question is, what's the difference

22:44

between a video podcast and a talk show?

22:46

Maybe there isn't one. Um, and then I

22:50

guess this isn't relevant necessarily to

22:52

Netflix, but Disney also announced

22:55

recently they're going to get into

22:56

vertical video on Disney Plus. So, a lot

23:00

of interesting product announcements

23:02

happening in the streaming world. It's

23:04

kind of moving to an audio/social media

23:08

um economy, it seems. What do you make

23:12

of these moves? Um, and just before we

23:14

let you go, what do you think 2026 is

23:17

going to look like uh in terms of

23:19

streaming? Is it just going to be kind

23:20

of is it going to look like YouTube, I

23:22

guess, is my question.

23:23

>> I mean, look, everything is TV, right?

23:25

That's that's what we're seeing.

23:26

Podcasts were radio and now they're TV.

23:28

everything is TV. Uh for Netflix

23:30

specifically, it's not they've been

23:32

making this move for some time and and

23:33

the driver has been the consumer is a

23:35

little weaker, right? We're paying for a

23:37

lot of things. We don't really have a

23:38

clean bundle yet, no matter how hard the

23:40

legacy cable companies are trying here.

23:42

Ad supported makes sense for them at

23:44

this point because you've got a weak

23:45

consumer. You've got an uncertain

23:47

economy. Yes, the the thinking is gone.

23:49

People will always spend money on

23:50

content. How much money they'll spend

23:52

and for what content is the bigger

23:54

question, which again ties into why they

23:55

want to buy Warner Brothers, right?

23:56

They've got some iconic franchises.

23:58

They've got a lot of great content. And

24:00

that's what Netflix is paying for. They

24:01

don't care about HBO Max necessarily.

24:03

They don't care about the actual

24:04

infrastructure of it all because Netflix

24:06

is the pioneer in this space. For the

24:08

space at large, it's a harder question

24:10

to answer, right? the content, the big,

24:13

you know, buffaloos in the room, the

24:14

Apples, the Netflixes, the HBO's have

24:17

shown in recent years, even before the

24:19

economic slowdown, a sensitivity to the

24:22

kind of blank check Yellowstone style

24:24

productions that cost hundreds of

24:25

millions of dollars and have crazy perks

24:27

for the talent and the directors.

24:29

They're a little more sensitive to that

24:30

now. They've realized they're actually

24:31

needs to be measurable ROI. So, if

24:33

there's one thing from a business

24:34

perspective that I think will change for

24:36

Netflix, whether it's because of this

24:37

deal, because of antitrust, because

24:39

investors just expect it, I expect, I

24:42

hope I should say, for more clarity that

24:45

they'll offer to the street on the

24:46

actual underpinnings of their business.

24:48

Remember, this is a company that has

24:50

kind of steadfastly refused to divulge

24:53

pretty elementary information, viewing

24:55

time, engagement, uh, things that

24:57

analysts and investors have expected

24:58

from legacy streamers, from cable

25:01

companies for decades. So, I would hope

25:03

that this process, this big bite of the

25:05

apple, forces Netflix to talk to

25:07

shareholders a bit more and say, "Look,

25:08

here's what we're doing. Here's what

25:10

we're seeing from consumers around the

25:11

world." There's no question they've got

25:12

a great product. The trick will be

25:14

explaining why what they're doing is

25:16

going to make this product better. And

25:18

really, the only way to do that is going

25:20

to have to be some more transparency.

25:22

>> All right, Rohan Gwami, business

25:24

reporter at Sema. I guess uh just before

25:27

you let you go, Rohan, who's going to

25:30

get WBD? I forget if I've already asked

25:32

you this, but if you had to lock in a

25:34

prediction, who wins?

25:36

>> You asked me this and and I actually the

25:38

first time I said Netflix, then I said

25:40

Paramount. Now I'm going to say

25:41

Paramount with an asterisk. Okay. And

25:43

here's why. Hear me out.

25:44

>> Wow. I'm glad I asked you. Okay.

25:46

>> They've got to bump their price.

25:47

>> They They've got to bump their price.

25:49

It's It's getting ridiculous now. You

25:51

know, they they if they want this thing

25:52

so badly and they need this thing, they

25:54

got to pay more. They know that, too.

25:56

But they just got to pay more. It's that

25:59

simple. Yeah,

26:00

>> the money talks.

26:01

>> Money talks. Okay. Thank you, Roan

26:03

Gwami, Sam Ford, Business Reporter.

26:05

Appreciate your time. Thank you.

26:07

>> Thanks, Ed.

26:08

>> We'll be right back. And if you're

26:09

enjoying the show so far, be sure to

26:11

like and subscribe to the Prof Pod

26:13

YouTube channel at the link below.

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>> We're back with Propy Markets.

27:34

>> Well, with everything happening in

27:36

Greenland, it's hard to remember that

27:37

things are still happening in America.

27:40

And one of those things is a slate of

27:43

affordability plans that have been put

27:45

forward by the president. One of them is

27:48

to implement a 10% interest rate cap on

27:50

credit cards. We touched on that last

27:52

week. Another is to ban institutional

27:54

investors from buying single family

27:56

homes. Another is to buy up $200 billion

27:59

worth of mortgage bonds. Another one is

28:01

to issue a tariff refund. Another is a

28:03

health care plan that Trump is calling

28:06

the great health care plan. And the

28:08

stated goal of all of these plans is to

28:11

address affordability to bring costs

28:14

down. Now, when I read these plans, I

28:17

see good news and I see bad news. The

28:19

good news is Trump seems to now be

28:22

recognizing that this affordability

28:24

thing is a big deal and if he wants to

28:27

get votes, he needs to address it. The

28:29

bad news is I don't think he's actually

28:32

taking it seriously at all. And across

28:34

each of these proposals, each of these

28:36

plans, that is the main theme. They are

28:39

unserious proposals. Take the credit

28:42

card interest rate cap for example. You

28:45

know, as Saul Martinez told us last

28:47

week, if this were actually implemented,

28:48

it would decimate the business models of

28:51

all the big banks and all the big credit

28:54

card companies, which is why it's

28:55

strange that when he announced this

28:57

plan, those stocks decline, yes, but

29:00

they didn't crater. And the reason they

29:02

didn't crater is because Wall Street

29:04

recognizes this isn't a serious

29:06

proposal. It's a little too ridiculous,

29:09

a little too absurd. it isn't going to

29:11

happen. Same thing is true of the great

29:13

health care plan. Trump announces his

29:16

plan to reinvent healthare, although he

29:18

doesn't really provide any details on

29:19

how he'll actually do that. And once

29:22

again, Wall Street doesn't really have a

29:24

reaction to it. Why? Because they don't

29:26

think anything is actually going to

29:28

happen. One healthcare analyst from Vita

29:30

Partner said it best. He said, quote,

29:32

"We think the plan is intended to

29:34

demonstrate that the White House is

29:35

doing something about affordability, but

29:38

we believe the policies either stand

29:40

little chance of being enacted or will

29:42

have a minimal impact if enacted." I

29:45

could go on about all the other ideas,

29:48

too. I could talk about the mortgage

29:49

bond idea and the institutional home

29:51

buying idea. I'll just cut to the chase.

29:53

I don't think that those are serious

29:55

proposals either.

29:57

But even if they were, even if they did

30:00

make sense, I would add that it would

30:03

still be hard to take any of it

30:04

seriously when we're still living under

30:08

a regime that has implemented one of the

30:10

worst affordability plans in the history

30:12

of America. And that is the tariffs. I

30:15

would remind you that before the

30:16

tariffs, inflation had come down to

30:18

2.3%. After the tariffs, they went up to

30:21

3%. And that makes perfect sense because

30:23

as we've discussed, it's Americans that

30:26

pay the cost of the tariffs, not

30:28

foreigners. The importer pays the tariff

30:30

and they pass that on to the consumer

30:32

with price increases. In fact, a new

30:34

report from the Keel Institute has

30:36

confirmed this. They found that

30:37

Americans are absorbing 96%

30:40

of the tariff costs. Foreigners,

30:43

meanwhile, are only taking on 4%. Even

30:46

Andy Jasse, the CEO of Amazon, made this

30:48

point yesterday at Davos. He literally

30:51

said that sellers are passing on the

30:53

tariff costs to American consumers.

30:56

So all of these affordability proposals

30:59

which are already unserious, they are

31:02

especially unserious when you also

31:04

consider the fact that we have tariffs.

31:06

And if we're in the business of

31:08

suggesting proposals, if the idea is to

31:11

come up with a plan that will bring

31:13

costs down, the idea is to come up with

31:15

a plan that will address affordability.

31:17

I have a really easy one that the

31:20

administration could implement right now

31:22

and that is they could just get rid of

31:24

the tariffs. It would be quick. It would

31:26

be doable. It would be effective and it

31:29

would bring costs down by probably a

31:31

percentage point. Of course, that won't

31:33

happen because Trump has doubled down on

31:36

this and he doesn't want to look

31:37

foolish. But this is all just to

31:38

highlight what a foolish situation we

31:41

find ourselves in. Here we are

31:43

pretending to care about affordability

31:46

and at the same time actively making our

31:48

lives less affordable.

31:51

So until we get rid of the tariffs, I

31:54

don't think there's any other reasonable

31:56

response to these proposals than what

31:58

Logan Roy said to his kids and that is

32:01

you are not serious people.

32:04

Thanks for listening to Profy Markets

32:06

from Profy Media. If you liked what you

32:07

heard, subscribe to our YouTube channel

32:10

and tune in tomorrow for [music] more.

32:18

>> [music]

Interactive Summary

The video discusses two main topics: the potential geopolitical and economic impact of President Trump's interest in acquiring Greenland, and Netflix's recent financial performance and strategic moves, including its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. On the Greenland issue, the expert expresses concern that Trump's actions are destabilizing and could lead to significant economic consequences, including trade wars and a disruption of the global order. Regarding Netflix, the discussion centers on its earnings report, which showed strong subscriber growth and revenue, but also a significant stock drop due to investor uncertainty about its aggressive acquisition strategy, particularly the bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. The expert also touches upon Netflix's expansion into advertising and podcasting, and the broader trends in the streaming industry, emphasizing the need for greater transparency from companies like Netflix.

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