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What the Next Generation Wants From Wealth Managers | Merryn Talks Money

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What the Next Generation Wants From Wealth Managers | Merryn Talks Money

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551 segments

0:00

The market expectation is kind of no one really have a crystal ball of what's

0:04

going to happen in the future, but the narrative in the market is that demand

0:08

is going to grow at an exceptional pace. But I do see a couple of risks in there.

0:14

The first one is really the return on those hyperscalers investment.

0:18

The other risk is competition. As you pointed out, the Chinese large

0:23

language model, uh, built up on cheap power, cheap electricity, cheap land and

0:29

cheap hardware producers because China. Yeah, the technology could be

0:36

generations behind. But once they get to a certain

0:40

technology level, the cost of producing those product is just significantly

0:44

cheaper as compared to the developed market.

0:52

Welcome to Merryn Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the

0:55

markets. I am Merryn Somerset Webb and this week

0:58

I'm speaking with Fiona Yang, a fund manager at Invesco.

1:01

She is the manager of the Invesco Asia Dragon fund.

1:05

On today's show, we talk about AI. We talk about Korea's volatile market

1:08

very AI exposed. We talk about India.

1:11

Cheap or not cheap. And why is it lost so much popularity?

1:15

And we talk for probably the first time on the show about the Australian stock

1:19

market. Fiona, welcome to Merryn Talks Money.

1:22

Thank you for having me here again right now.

1:25

You were in earlier this year and my goodness, a lot has happened since.

1:28

Um, and at the time we talked about all sorts of things, but one of the big

1:31

topics that we discussed last time and by the way, listeners, if you haven't

1:34

listened to the last one, maybe go listen to that one either before or

1:37

after. This one has had lots of interesting

1:39

stuff in it. I wanted to start by talking about

1:43

what's happened in Korea because it was already growing.

1:46

Get going! Great guns.

1:47

Last time we talked, it continued to silver and saw and saw based on a couple

1:51

of of major I related stocks. And then we had a little bit of a

1:54

stumble and now career as well. I mean, I was going to say 25% off its

1:59

peak in June. But on the day that we're talking, I

2:02

think that Kospi went up 70% even yesterday.

2:05

So this is very volatile stuff. And we're also hearing, um, about a lot

2:10

of very highly leveraged, uh, ordinary Korean investors or gamblers, I guess we

2:16

should say, who lost an awful lot of money by being, you know, having very

2:21

high margin debt and then being hit by falling share prices.

2:24

So, uh, so it's fascinating because it's exactly as you said, that front row seat

2:30

to eye. But it's also turned out to be very,

2:33

very volatile. Yeah, exactly.

2:36

That's a fantastic observation that you had, uh, on the Korean market.

2:40

I think we would take a step back. Quite a few things has worked out very

2:43

favorably for Korea over the past 12, 18 months.

2:47

You know, with a memory cycle boosted by demand is just a phenomenal.

2:52

This is one of the biggest supercycle that we have seen for stocks like

2:56

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. And on top of that, I think we had to

3:01

say the Korean government has done a fantastic job in boosting shareholder

3:06

return, doing the value up initiative in Korea.

3:10

It's a textbook sort of example that all the other countries should really look

3:14

up to for some of the holdings that we have in the portfolio, especially the

3:18

financials. They are boosting shareholder return

3:21

massively over the past few years, and they start to really focus on

3:25

shareholder interest and protecting minority shareholders interests and

3:30

giving us more voices in the boardroom. That's something that, uh, I think in

3:35

all of this data center, I sort of narrative that investors have forgotten.

3:41

And but I do see risk. There are two risk I see in the Korea

3:44

market. The first one is the concentration of

3:46

risk, as you correctly pointed out, with the participation of leveraged ETF.

3:52

I do think some of the retail investors might sort they just bought into a

3:57

product that, uh, give them a bit more return into this, uh, investor, into a

4:01

great company. But reality is, it's a much more complex

4:05

financial product they've got themselves into.

4:08

And that led to the capital losses. And then the other risk is really

4:13

earnings risk. Now the market is having super high

4:17

expectations what the memory price is going to be.

4:20

If you look at Samsung Electronics took preliminary result.

4:24

They delivered 19% 19 times increase versus two CU last year.

4:31

The share price is actually done post that result exactly because of this

4:35

expectation versus reality. Expectation of earnings growth is super

4:40

high to the degree that even fantastic earnings cycle.

4:43

Cannot that meet that expectation. Uh, also result in share price

4:48

volatility that we have seen from the peak.

4:50

Um, there's a I mean, everything you said about the changes in the Korean

4:54

market and the changes to shareholder democracy and the changes to regulation

4:58

driven corporate governance. I mean, that's what we saw in Japan in a

5:01

previous cycle, right? I still think ongoing in Japan, which is

5:04

interesting, so that Korean regulators can picked up all sorts of hints from

5:08

Japan. And that makes a great long term story

5:11

for the shareholders and the Korean market.

5:13

But nonetheless, in the short term, as you say, it is all about concentration.

5:17

So, you know, um, let's get high necks and, and, um, something are a huge part

5:23

of the market. And it's the same across the Asian

5:26

market, actually, if you think to yourself, I'm buying, um, emerging Asia

5:30

or I'm buying Asia, and you buy any kind of index or ETF product, you're actually

5:35

just buying huge exposure to a couple of eye stocks.

5:39

So that concentration is the thing that really matters if you're buying into any

5:44

kind of index product, which means that you really have to look in detail at the

5:48

second risk, which you bring up, that which is the supercycle and in memory.

5:52

And when you refer to it as a Supercycle.

5:56

I wonder what you mean by that and how long you think that cycle will last.

6:01

Because I think for for for old people, uh, old investors, um, have seen these

6:05

cycles go on forever and ever. One of the first things I ever learned

6:09

when I became a stockbroker in Asia was that these cycles tend to be shorter

6:13

than you think. It's best just to take a step back to

6:16

look at how we ended up here and above. Rewind the tape by 2 or 3 years ago,

6:22

what happened to the memory industry was actually we were in a down cycle.

6:27

If you look at Nand, which is uh, sort of Nand flash that is in deep loss

6:34

making as a result, even though the industry only have a few producers of

6:39

Nand, none of them was really expanding the capacity aggressively.

6:43

Similar for Dram, which is the other type of memory that goes into all this

6:48

AI products. This days, as I say, they have gone

6:52

through this commodity super up and down cycle.

6:56

Uh, in the prior of data center cloud, build out your, uh, and, uh, the

7:00

profitability has deteriorated very quickly.

7:03

For a company like SK Hynix, they have to really go to the market, uh, to raise

7:08

convertible bonds because the balance sheet was in deep trouble.

7:11

They were super leveraged. Uh, so they were not in a position to

7:15

expand CapEx. Um, all of this moving to where we are

7:19

today is we have this period of, uh, underinvestment by the major players in

7:26

the memory markets. And on the other side of demand, we

7:30

suddenly have I we had a genetic AI that just need a lot of memory to really

7:34

recall the conversation that you had with ChatGPT, with anthropic, with

7:39

Claude, so they can help you to do the task better from this point on.

7:43

So that demand surge is all expected from what all this investors as well as

7:50

memory producers perspective, uh, even 12 months back, that's why we ended up

7:55

with this shortage in supply, because the investment over the past couple of

7:59

years, as well as the sudden surge in demand.

8:02

So what has happened is really the shortage has just driven the prices of

8:08

the exactly the same products up phenomenally over the past few years.

8:14

Then the question is about when how long this cycle could last.

8:18

I think it could last for a couple of years because of this supply to come up.

8:25

We'll take time. You need to build the clean room.

8:28

You need to pre-order that equipment and put equipment in there.

8:32

But then does that mean the share price could last for 2 or 3 years at a very

8:37

high level? That might not necessarily be true,

8:39

because the expectation is already up there in the stock market is while

8:43

expectation versus reality, the expectation is already, uh, there's, uh,

8:47

sort of high demand that cannot be met. And, uh, the supply will not come up in

8:52

the next 2 or 3 years If we do see any sort of vacuum in the demand side of

8:57

things. Or supply could come up just faster than

9:00

they expected, because suddenly all these companies have raised a huge

9:04

amount of money, not just for the Korean ones, but also the Chinese competitor is

9:08

doing an IPO in the coming days. All of that could change the supply

9:13

dynamics quite a bit. Then it's about when does that price or

9:18

the customers buy the other day. You have a handful of hyperscalers

9:21

paying for these products. If they do see demand weakening slightly

9:26

and the supply is going to come up quite massively.

9:29

The bargaining chip going to go back from the money producers to the payers,

9:34

and we could see prices start to fall from this point on.

9:39

Yeah. Let's talk about demand that I mean the

9:41

supply conversations is slightly easier in a way isn't it.

9:44

Because you can you can see the timeline that is required, as you said, to build

9:47

the clean rooms, etc. but when you look at demand, the

9:50

assumptions for rising demand, uh, pretty pretty enormous.

9:54

Pretty enormous. There are all sorts of things that could

9:57

affect that, one of those being people changing the way that they use LMS at

10:01

the moment. At the moment, people are changing from

10:04

using the services provided by the big American hyperscalers to using Chinese

10:09

products, etc.. So there's lots of things that could

10:11

shift inside the demand equation. Yeah, absolutely.

10:15

I think there are. I mean, there are quite a few moving

10:19

parts in that demand equation. How I see, I think demand is here to

10:24

stay is just a question of how fast is going to grow.

10:28

The market expectation is kind of no one really have a crystal ball of what's

10:33

going to happen in the future, but the narrative in the market is that demand

10:37

is going to grow at an exceptional pace. But I do see a couple of risks in there.

10:42

The first one is really the return on those hyperscalers investment.

10:47

It is really, given the current sort of annual run rate of the revenue produced

10:54

by Open the Eye and Topic are not to mention, you know the that the pass

10:59

uncertain pass to what profitability the ROI of this hyperscale investment is do

11:06

questionable on this huge amount of CapEx.

11:09

We're going to see all we expect to see. So that's one risk.

11:13

The other risk is competition. As you pointed out, the Chinese large

11:18

language model, uh, build up on cheap power, cheap electricity, cheap land and

11:25

cheap hardware producers because China, China's yeah, the technology could be

11:31

generators behind. But once they get to a certain

11:35

technology level, the cost of producing those product is just significantly

11:39

cheaper as compared to the developed market.

11:42

So as the result, their large language model is actually priced at a fraction

11:46

of the cost of the leading, uh, edge model that we have seen in the Western

11:50

world. I was just having lunch with one my

11:53

friend who operates one of his own software company in the Asia region.

11:58

He talk about, yes, we just switch between the models, certain task we can

12:02

just use, you know, the 90% cheaper Chinese model and certain task, the most

12:07

advanced mass. Maybe we use the Western model.

12:10

And that's a perfect way out for us to both save on costs and really get to the

12:15

desired outcome for coding and etc., so that just the two risks that I have to

12:20

take into consideration, thinking about the demand and how quickly that demand

12:26

is going to grow from this point on. Yeah.

12:28

See, that's interesting that a lot of the demand assumptions assume that

12:30

everyone will always want to use the best model, but that's not really the

12:34

case, is that people will use the good enough model depending on price and

12:38

depending on exactly. Yeah.

12:40

Okay. So if you are now investing in this

12:43

region and you're looking at this concentration and you're looking at

12:46

these risks that we've just talked about, and I know that a lot of people

12:50

will say to, to you that the the big companies, the Samsungs and the high net

12:55

six out of that, they still look reasonably cheap.

12:57

But of course, that's the way cycles always work.

13:00

You know that, uh, you're supposed to sell these companies when they look

13:05

cheap and buy them when they look expensive, because that's how the cycle

13:07

works. So if you are an active investor, now is

13:10

the time to diversify away from those plays.

13:14

My guess, and start looking at companies that are not so much the picks and

13:19

shovels, but the companies that will benefit in other ways from using AI.

13:23

If you still going to talk about this as an eye trade, start looking at the

13:26

companies that will be able to use AI to improve their productivity, their

13:30

customer service, etc.. So you moving out from those pure plays?

13:34

Yeah. That's exactly.

13:36

You know, for active bottom up fund manager.

13:38

That's my job day to day. Um, so two angles I look at this one is

13:43

really, you know, outside of the I stuff within Korea, if you are a Samsung

13:48

employee, you get this huge bonus because you just negotiated to get 10%

13:52

of the company's OPG operating profit to be paid in bonuses.

13:56

What are you going to do with it? Can we do stuff on that?

13:59

What do we get people getting in the way of bonuses?

14:01

I mean, I've read about this hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands

14:04

of dollars being paid out in bonuses to ordinary employees.

14:07

Well, it's the scale here. This is going to be massive.

14:10

I mean, people, the sell side the most bullish expectation is next year.

14:15

SK Hynix could pay could get to about 400, 450 uh trillion.

14:23

Uh Korean one. If you have 10% of that paid to the

14:28

employees, is going to be huge as a percentage of the country's GDP.

14:32

Of course, that's expected. I'm not saying we will get there, but

14:35

was that a huge amount of money? Then people will want to spend it.

14:40

They want to buy a house, they want to buy handbags.

14:43

And actually it's already happening. People are talking about the

14:47

insatiable demand for hand luxury handbags as well as jewellery.

14:52

In Korea, the department store is just packed.

14:55

If you go to the VCA in the morning, you'll have to get a Q ticket the first

15:00

moment it opens, otherwise you will not be able to visit it for the whole day.

15:04

You have to that cute. You have to cute.

15:05

Go in to get a ticket to go to one of the jewelry shops.

15:10

Yeah, right. Everyone should come to Edinburgh.

15:13

There's no queues outside our luxury shops.

15:15

I think they are going to do that. Absolutely.

15:18

But yeah. Holidays here.

15:20

I know employees, we're waiting. Yeah.

15:23

So those are the things that we expect to see.

15:25

We already start to see signs of that. But once that money get into the pocket

15:29

of the employees as exactly what they're going to do, they're going to go

15:32

overseas to travel as well. So we want to benefit from that.

15:35

I think the banks, you know, it's going to see an acceleration in loan growth,

15:40

the wealth management product demand for introduced by the banks.

15:43

And then also on the other side is uh, I CapEx going to benefit a lot of the

15:48

construction company in the country. So that's around, you know, within the

15:53

Korea, the secondary and tertiary beneficiary from the I trend.

15:58

And then outside of that is the point you raise about who got to uses AI

16:03

technology to really benefit structurally for the future.

16:08

So some of the winners that we identify is actually the internet space.

16:12

We like some of the game developers in China or in the region.

16:17

If you think about, you know, online games, how you develop in the past, you

16:20

spend millions of dollars trying to produce a content to make the AGI looks

16:25

absolutely amazing. That comes at the expense of hiring

16:28

thousands of programmers, graphic designers.

16:31

But now using AI, you can just make it so much simpler.

16:34

It saves the costs and really enhance the gameplay.

16:38

And you can even tailor made the products to every individual user have a

16:42

completely different gameplay. Was as a guy sitting next to me because

16:45

we just like different things. We want different experience in the

16:48

world, or a world that just increase the time span on the platform and lower the

16:54

cost. So some of the stocks that we have held

16:57

in the portfolio for a long time, uh, for the longest time, is just under

17:01

appreciated by this AI beneficiary, the, uh, thematic it can you give us the

17:07

names and tell us some of the details of some of the other stocks you're holding

17:10

in Korea that have exposure to these themes?

17:14

Right. So in Korea, uh, we own some of the

17:17

banks, like KB financial is one of the biggest bank, uh, in the region.

17:21

We also own, uh, Samsung Fire Marine is one of the insurance company that has

17:26

just seen uh, shareholder return being boosted and, uh, into the CapEx spending

17:32

cycle of the Samsung Group. We do, um, Samsung eon a it is one of

17:37

the captive sort of construction company for the Samsung Group that could

17:40

continue to cater to the company's future built out of their clean room in

17:45

the country. And then for the other thing, uh, about,

17:49

you know, the beneficiary of AI using AI technology.

17:53

We do like, uh, NetEase and Tencent in China.

17:55

They are the game producers in China. And because of the regulation that you

17:59

need to really publish games in China, it's not something that I can actually

18:04

do for you to to really negotiate with a regulator.

18:09

What sort of games can be brought to the market that still needs, that needs

18:13

humans and humans? Yes, exactly.

18:16

That much of Asia is now beginning to look relatively expensive.

18:21

So we've talked about Korea, and I know Japan is in your area, but that's not

18:24

the pure value play. It used to be India will come into India

18:28

in a little bit but expensive. And so Vietnam for example, used to be

18:32

so cheap isn't anymore. But China remains pretty inexpensive,

18:37

still a very unpopular market. Um, tell me about that from your point

18:42

of view. I think, unfortunately, China has just

18:45

been used as a funding source to buying into the AI hardware space, so that

18:52

China does have many of the popular holdings among Asia and emerging market

18:57

investors. When you think about investing in the

19:00

region, you usually own stocks in China because they are perceived as the best.

19:05

And now, with the funding flow coming out of this popular holdings and going

19:10

into Korea and Taiwan is just have depress that market value.

19:16

So people have just been selling their holdings in Chinese markets to buy into

19:20

and to the exciting stuff in Korea and Taiwan.

19:23

Exactly. I think that's definitely a play, an

19:26

important role in that. And if we look at the index composition

19:30

of MSCI China, there are a lot of internet names in there.

19:34

And many would argue, you know, for internet companies, maybe you need to

19:39

reinvest yourself, reinvent yourself to have a new business model to really

19:45

survive in the new I era. Maybe you want to increase your CapEx

19:49

spending. You need to have the most competitive

19:52

large language model so as to win. Really, um, as a result, is not so sure

19:59

whether those companies are still the leaders in the region.

20:04

So they get sold off because of the flow and the question mark of how they're

20:09

going to evolve themselves in this new technology world.

20:12

Yeah, but valuations reflect that. This is one of the few places in the

20:15

region where you can still say, well, I'm not definitely not overpaying

20:20

as a the contrary, investors, you know, when other people look away, we always

20:24

want to look more into it because there are a lot of gems in that market.

20:28

Uh, and investors are fixated on a lot of the macro issues about weak economic

20:33

growth or, um, sort of still underwhelming consumption data.

20:40

But you know what? There are companies that can actually

20:44

thrive in this macro environment. And it is extraordinary, isn't it?

20:48

What a small part of the indices the Chinese market takes up.

20:53

Definitely, definitely. I think I think it's more of the case of

20:56

how quickly Taiwan and Korea have gone up, and then the market cap of this mega

21:03

company, the concentration that they have in the Asia Index is mind blowing.

21:08

Yeah, yeah. Um, and back to concentration and be

21:12

careful what you buy. Right.

21:13

Um, all right. Let's look at India, which was

21:15

incredibly popular for ages. Everyone loved India.

21:19

And we were constantly being told you didn't need to worry about prices by

21:23

India because of the growth and exciting companies, etc.

21:26

and, um, and that's over. No one's interested in India anymore.

21:29

Fallen out of favor. Um, but I've recently taking a trip to

21:33

India. Yes.

21:34

So India is very interesting. One two years ago it was one of the most

21:39

popular country to invest seeing for the whole region.

21:43

And here we are is completely being put into the bottom of the jaw because it

21:48

doesn't really I mean, I stocks in there, you know, all this, uh, internet

21:53

company again, similar like the Chinese ones being questioned about their

21:57

survivability for the long term and the growth in the longer term.

22:01

Um, so I just saw this interesting time to definitely take a trip and visit our

22:04

portfolio companies and identify whether there are more interesting ideas.

22:09

I think the conclusion is still the market, despite the on the performance

22:12

versus everyone else is still expensive. Um, unfortunately is

22:20

valuation is something that, uh, that we can't get the hurdle over it, but

22:25

doesn't mean we can't own stocks in the market because they're still selected

22:29

parts of the market looks extremely, um, valuable for us.

22:34

And if you look at the gross compounding power of some of the portfolio company

22:38

is definitely impressive. So one of the my favorite in India and

22:43

during the trip is, uh, Shri Ram. This is, uh, non-bank financial company

22:48

operating in India for extended period of time that basically served to say,

22:53

the truck drivers helping them to get a second, give them a loan to get a second

22:57

hand truck. Uh, they also help, uh, the small

23:00

businesses, giving them some working capital loan and etc..

23:03

So the business has thrived over the past years because of the on the

23:06

penetration of the formal banking sector in the rural area of India.

23:11

They can really serve the underserved. Um, and it can grow in the market

23:16

because of, uh, the income of the, uh, the average people would go up.

23:22

They want to take up the formal jobs, they want to open their own small

23:26

businesses, and Shri Ram will be there helping them with a vast network across

23:32

the country and their personal relationship of their loan officer.

23:36

With that and customer, something the formal banking sector just cannot really

23:40

address to. And what impressed me this time round

23:43

where I met the, um, they actually have, uh, I mean, the biggest, uh, uh, one of

23:48

the biggest, uh, Japanese financial, uh, company investing in a huge chunk into

23:54

free Ram. That means that, um, the credit rating

23:58

for Shri Ram can, can really improve on the back of, uh, big parent company.

24:02

And at the same time, with the cheap capital support from the mUFG, they can

24:08

really see their, um, uh, funding cost to go down substantially in the years to

24:12

come. So we're talking about a business can be

24:15

supercharged for gross leverage into the growth of the India economy.

24:19

At the same time, in joining this, uh, expanding margin because of the lower

24:24

funding costs and is still trading at a reasonable valuation as compared to the

24:28

index as compared to the peer group. So this is exactly the kind of thing

24:32

active fund manager like myself tried to do going to market okay, it's expensive,

24:36

but that means there are no good company to invest in.

24:40

Now what about, um, Indian consumer stocks?

24:42

And one of the conversations that we have on this podcast a lot is about

24:45

population and demographics. And of course, whenever you look at

24:48

China and you look at consumption in the construction, etc., you have to worry

24:52

that with a falling population, there's all sorts of things to take into account

24:55

that you would never have thought of even a decade ago.

24:58

But while India's fertility rate has fallen, uh, and actually number below

25:02

replacement rate, isn't it? But only just it's still the population

25:05

is still growing reasonably fast. And so you would have thought that in a

25:09

with the fastest growing population and with, as you were just talking about

25:14

high levels of entrepreneurial and income entrepreneurialism and income

25:19

growth, the consumer stocks would do very well.

25:21

Yeah, exactly. So the angle that I go in with a

25:25

consumer stock, also, looking at the Chinese consumption trend over the past

25:29

decades is really, you know, which are the digital companies can cater to that.

25:35

So I visited a lot of the e-commerce as well as, uh, digital internet companies

25:39

in India trying catering to. There's, uh, sort of a rising, um,

25:44

middle income class. Uh, so one of the company I visited, uh,

25:49

is Michelle being the one of the leading e-commerce company in India.

25:53

But again, it's a valuation. I on the side of growth, I can

25:57

appreciate the growth that they have, the vast amount of opportunities that

26:02

they can catering to. But the valuation is still quite

26:05

demanding. Then the next layer that I look at, who

26:08

are the supply chain company, are really the company catering to that growth.

26:12

This is a portfolio company that we own for a while as well.

26:15

It's called delivery. As one of the logistics company that

26:19

deliver the parcels for me show they have about 50% of the market share into

26:24

metro parcels. And they also cater to the other

26:28

digital, um, uh, sort of e-commerce company across India.

26:32

On top of that, they also do full truckload services catering to the small

26:36

as well as media enterprises to help them moving from their products from one

26:40

place to the other place, and they are one of the biggest logistics operator in

26:45

the country. If you think about India logistics, they

26:47

are it's really amazing the pace of improvement that we have seen over the

26:53

past year thanks to Modi. His investment in the logistics space in

26:57

the country's infrastructure really helps companies like delivery to grow,

27:03

to improve their services at lower costs, at higher efficiency, so they can

27:07

take over market share of some of their competitors, as well as really enjoying

27:12

this growth of consumers wanting more products.

27:15

They want cheaper products. They want products at our doorstep.

27:19

Um, so this is something that we have been investing for quite a while, and we

27:23

are really glad to see them seeing acceleration in growth for exactly this

27:27

topic that we talk about. And at the same time, with that growth

27:31

compounding the valuation, the leverage, the operational leverage that they are

27:35

seeing, the business, uh, is a beautiful small business that we holding in there.

27:41

I suppose the thing that will always come up in conversation when you talk

27:45

about logistics and infrastructure in India is the energy problem, because

27:49

they are a net importer of of fossil fuels, and that does make for quite a

27:53

difficult environment at the moment. Absolutely.

27:57

This is a topic in every single meeting. When I was India, people talk about, but

28:03

I think the government has done a fantastic job.

28:05

They have shouldered a lot of that, um, energy price volatility away from the

28:10

um, customers and consumers. Of course, there's a questionable how

28:15

long they can do that. Uh, but how they managed it, how they

28:18

managed the inflation and they how they do coordinated monetary policies and

28:24

communication with the market definitely brought a lot of reassurance to invest

28:29

in the market. And I think the other angle to look at

28:32

is not just about the price of oil for any of this country, Asia or India in

28:37

particular is also about trying to build this energy independence.

28:42

So that's another topic that, uh, you know, as a team, we just really like to

28:47

delve into, um, how Asia can be more independent from global geopolitics or

28:55

energy crises for the next decade. What's the answer to that?

28:59

I think, you know, a lot of things have happened not just about the Iran crisis,

29:03

but what has happened. Uh, Russia, what has happened during

29:07

Covid time is the five years a lot of things have happened and all that taught

29:12

all the nations around the world is maybe over the past 30 years, all we

29:16

care about is operational efficiency or getting the cheapest future.

29:20

From this point on, we should look at independence.

29:23

We should look at having more of this stuff onshore.

29:27

So we want to invest in companies that really cater to that theme.

29:30

You know, the services company, the infrastructure construction company,

29:33

design companies, uh, help resources. Uh, infrastructure built out across the

29:39

region. Um, so some of the stocks are we look

29:42

at, um, Samsung, you know, we talk about that's, uh, one of the they don't just

29:48

cater to the, uh, Samsung cut to CapEx, but they also involve a lot of, uh,

29:54

energy resources, build out construction type of work.

29:58

So that could definitely benefit. Another one we look at Asean, Australia

30:02

is called Wall-E. This is uh design company, um, EPC

30:07

company to really help, uh, the global oil and the resources majors to build

30:13

out new projects. So we do see that in the future, there

30:18

will be acceleration in this, uh, capital spending cycle in energy as well

30:22

as, uh, resources space across the region.

30:25

Um, I suppose when we look at Asia, we always think of it as being entirely an

30:29

energy importing region. But it isn't.

30:31

There are there are quite a few net exporters in Asia, aren't there?

30:35

Indonesia for example. Yeah.

30:37

Absolutely. So.

30:38

Indonesia, Malaysia as well as Australia.

30:42

They are really not so dependent on energy importing.

30:47

They are the net exporters. Uh, but then again, where you have the

30:52

resources doesn't necessarily mean you can have a great handle cars, but you

30:55

might not play that very well. So the, uh, stock market performance of

30:59

all the three countries still varies quite a bit.

31:02

Um, I didn't know that you invested in Australia, actually.

31:06

Yeah. So for my team, we do have, uh, Asia

31:09

Pacific, uh, products as well, extra, um, products as well.

31:13

So Australia, uh, being sitting in Singapore is a place that I love to

31:17

travel to and see companies as well. Okay.

31:21

If you put the love to travel to bed first before the think, um, who doesn't

31:25

like Australia, right? I mean, just think about Sydney,

31:27

Melbourne and the Y in Perth. Nothing else you can ask for.

31:32

When I worked in Asia, I used to do, um, Sydney, Melbourne quite a lot as well.

31:37

Again, technically technically work, but nice to travel to.

31:41

Um, so what does the Australian market look like to you?

31:43

I mean, interestingly, I don't think that we have ever discussed the

31:46

Australian market on this podcast before.

31:48

So this is a First Vienna. Oh, perfect.

31:51

Um, the hi. My pleasure to touch that.

31:54

I think Australia is, uh, amazing market.

31:58

You know, if you rank a kind of, uh, capital return, shareholder return, uh,

32:04

this kind of stuff. Corporate Governance Australia

32:07

definitely ranked the number one out of the countries that I cover.

32:10

So structurally is just a very favorable environment for active stock pickers to

32:16

work with the company and really enjoy the shareholder return.

32:21

Um, and then if we look at the resources, which we talk about earlier,

32:26

uh, Australia being the energy as well as a resources net, uh, exporter in the

32:33

region, it definitely have a critical, critical role to play, uh, in the Asia

32:39

space. Uh, so that's definitely the go to place

32:42

for us if we do want to own some iron ore producers, or if we do want to have

32:46

more oil, gas, uh, in the portfolio, that's a go to place we would invest.

32:51

And then if you look at a short term, there are a couple of uncertainty in the

32:56

market, especially what the government is trying to address the housing market

33:00

issue over there. That brought some uncertainty because

33:04

household wealth is quite concentrated in housing.

33:07

But the government has introduced a few sort of, uh, anti negative gearing

33:13

policies to address what they perceived as all for the ability for the younger

33:19

generation. That's a housing problem that they, they

33:22

do want to address. That brought some market uncertainty

33:25

because banks is banks in Australia are hugely leveraged into the housing market

33:32

um in the country. And then, um, as a result of that.

33:37

The other issue is the consumer confidence.

33:40

As I mentioned, wealth is linked to property price in Australia because of

33:47

the expectation that housing prices are going to be soft.

33:51

So the consumer segment is not doing very well.

33:55

The spending continues, but the expectation is that, um, it's set to

34:00

soft, um, from this point on. So we can see structurally there are

34:04

definitely merit of investing in Australia, but it's just temporarily

34:08

because of the housing crisis the country sees, they want to address it

34:13

for the longer term benefits of the country's healthy growth.

34:17

That might have set back some of the near-term growth potential for

34:22

Australia. So for the moment, the most interesting

34:25

stocks there are probably commodity related.

34:27

Yeah, definitely. We think, um, you know, if the data

34:32

center going to be built out as planned. They need a lot of copper.

34:36

Uh, where? Australia do have quite a couple of

34:39

names that have, um, exposure in that space.

34:42

And then the energy security wing in Wally that's in Australia.

34:46

They don't just, uh, cater to Asia to do the resources and energy build out.

34:52

They do have 50% of the revenue coming from the US.

34:55

That's a market that just have a huge plan to expand the gas producing, uh,

35:02

capability. So all of that just, uh, give us a lot

35:05

of options to invest in Australia. I don't know, Fiona.

35:09

Thank you. That's that's so interesting.

35:11

And as I say, a first off, we're going to do more Australia thanks to you

35:14

because there's obviously a lot going on.

35:16

Um, it's important that I let you go. Let me just ask you one question.

35:19

Is holiday time right. And all of our guests and, uh, uh,

35:23

listeners are headed to the beach, and we are wondering when you head to the

35:26

beach or wherever you're going. Um, I should say I am already on

35:30

holiday, but I like your show, so I fly. Come fly it to the here to London to be

35:36

on the podcast. So I say, sir.

35:38

Thank you so much for joining us. It's great to be here.

35:41

So I was in Sweden with my family. I brought my two kids and then together

35:45

was a bigger family. So we have, uh, we rented out a

35:49

beautiful house by Swedish Lake is just a tradition that people goes to the

35:53

lakes and enjoy the summer. And the kids can swim in the.

35:57

In the lake was absolutely beautiful. Not as hot as here, which is great.

36:02

But this is so interesting. I am hearing a lot of people saying that

36:05

they are holidaying and I. But someone told me that they were going

36:08

to Finland on holiday and a lot of people are going to Sweden.

36:11

It's escape the heat, isn't it? Yeah, absolutely.

36:14

Now you are. You recommended?

36:15

Okay. Thank you.

36:16

Now you have kids, so you probably don't have much time for this.

36:19

But what are you reading when you're sitting by the lake?

36:23

Oh, quick question. My younger one is only one year old.

36:26

So you're not reading. You are not reading it all the time.

36:29

Um, so one of the book that I'm reading now is The Coming Wave.

36:33

That's really good. Talking about I.

36:35

And then, you know, not just about I, how are we going to change the world by

36:39

some of the consequences that you have to think about, like ethics, what it

36:43

means for job market, etc.. I know I shouldn't care, shouldn't be

36:49

too occupied with work while I'm away on holiday, but it's really the only time.

36:53

You know, with two young kids, the only time I can really spend to do some

36:58

reading. Uh, so that's something that I highly

37:01

recommend for this. I thank you, and we all hope that when

37:05

you finish reading that, you'll read a nice holiday romance or something like

37:08

that to finish things off. Yeah.

37:11

Thank you, thank you. I like to thank you so much for joining

37:14

us. I really enjoyed talking to you.

37:15

As usual, I thank you.

Interactive Summary

Merryn Somerset Webb discusses the evolving landscape of Asian markets, specifically focusing on the impact of AI, corporate governance, and regional investment opportunities with fund manager Fiona Yang. They examine the volatility in the Korean market, the 'supercycle' in the memory chip industry, the emergence of Chinese AI competitors, and the investment climate in India and Australia.

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