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Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust

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Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust

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1879 segments

0:00

All right, Saxs, how you doing, brother?

0:01

Wait, wait, what's this? Why are you

0:02

wearing a tie?

0:03

>> I'm in DC today, so it's a it's a

0:05

government day.

0:06

>> Ah, so you suited up with the ties. You

0:07

suited up with ties. Well, maybe I'll

0:09

join you. Maybe I'll join you. Oh, look.

0:11

Oh, look. What is this box I just got?

0:13

Oh, that's for my guy Tom. Oh, just for

0:16

JCAL, Mr. Jason Calakas. Let's see

0:18

what's in the box here.

0:20

>> Oh, what's going on here?

0:21

>> Tom Ford sent you something.

0:22

>> Oh, Tom sent me a nice tie. And you

0:24

don't go

0:27

>> I uh I heard that Moose ate your

0:28

invitation to the White House.

0:30

>> He did. He did.

0:31

>> Sorry about that.

0:33

>> Sorry about that.

0:35

[Music]

0:37

>> Let your winners ride.

0:39

>> Rainman David.

0:44

>> We open sources to the fans and they've

0:46

just gone crazy with it.

0:52

>> All right, everybody. Welcome back to

0:54

the number one podcast in the universe

0:58

in the universe. It's been proven time

1:00

and time again. Oh, this I'm not putting

1:02

the tie up. Ah, it. It's just It's

1:05

enough already. I I guess Friday. We We

1:07

moved the show to Friday. Sorry you're

1:09

getting this on Saturday.

1:10

>> You can't come to the White House. You

1:11

can't figure out a tie.

1:13

>> Yeah. Well, maybe you could show me how

1:15

to do this next time I'm in town. I got

1:16

to practice with you. We'll go in the

1:18

mirror. You could. That'd be great. Bit

1:19

you behind me. Show me how to do a tie.

1:22

We didn't have ties in Brooklyn. What do

1:23

you want me to do? All right. Well, it

1:25

was an eventful week. Some of our

1:28

besties,

1:29

some, not all, were invited apparently

1:32

to a uh a little suare at the White

1:35

House with the president, Saxs and Cham.

1:38

Here's a photo. Some pretty good seeing

1:40

arrangement here. Looks like Zuckerberg

1:42

got the pole position on the right hand

1:44

of the father followed by Saxi Pooh and

1:47

Chimath and Amo sitting right across

1:50

from Sam Alman and Tim Cook. What a

1:55

crowd. What a crowd. What was the um

1:58

what was the uh impetus for this dinner?

2:00

Sachs, tell us.

2:02

>> Well, this was a tech dinner at the

2:03

White House. I think it originally

2:05

started with a group that Chimath

2:08

organized in Silicon Valley and they

2:10

were kind of the core nucleus of this

2:12

and then more and more people just

2:13

wanted to come and try to get in and the

2:16

president invited some of the top tech

2:18

leaders and pretty soon it turned into

2:20

the room that you saw there. I mean it's

2:22

really pretty amazing President Trump's

2:25

ability to convene all these people. You

2:26

normally don't get these people in a

2:28

room together. Many of them are

2:30

competitors and it's remarkable. You

2:33

pretty much had I'd say like maybe half

2:34

the tech industry was there

2:36

>> by market cap. Certainly.

2:37

>> By market cap for sure.

2:39

>> Yeah. And uh Chimath, you obviously were

2:42

involved here and you got a pretty good

2:44

seat. Any uh great inside stories? Any

2:47

inside baseball? What did they serve? By

2:49

the way, I'm curious what gets served at

2:50

a dinner like this.

2:51

>> That was a very elegant menu.

2:54

And they they try to keep it light so

2:56

that it's not overwhelming, which I

2:58

think can get in the way. So it was like

3:00

>> So no prime rib, right? There was a

3:01

barata salad and then there was a a

3:03

fillet and then a nice raspberry

3:05

dessert.

3:06

>> Okay,

3:06

>> here's what I'll tell you. Sax said it

3:08

well. What was incredible

3:10

for me just to frankly be in the room

3:12

felt very surreal. You're seeing the

3:14

leaders of the most important companies

3:16

in the world sitting together

3:20

and I just felt like there was a sense

3:22

of alignment and cooperation and that

3:24

was really cool. I think none of those

3:27

folks have to really show up anywhere

3:30

that they don't have to. I think they're

3:31

at a place in their career and the

3:33

importance of the businesses that they

3:34

run. But the fact that the president can

3:36

convene them, I think says a lot about

3:38

him and the agenda. And then they to a

3:41

one were incredibly supportive of what

3:45

he has done and clearing the way and

3:47

allowing them to build their businesses

3:49

with a lot more clarity. It was just

3:51

very clear the juxtaposition of what it

3:53

was like and the difficulty under Biden

3:55

versus what it was now. And you saw some

3:57

very truly hard cast liberals who have

4:00

now completely embraced President Trump.

4:03

Folks like Tim Cook, folks like Bill

4:04

Gates. And I think that that's an

4:06

incredible testament to him and his

4:07

agenda. And then the second thing, which

4:09

is more personal, is I was so proud of

4:12

Sachs. Every single one of these guys,

4:16

and you're talking like the Titans of

4:17

Titans, they took a moment to say that

4:20

he was just doing an incredible job and

4:21

the president was really proud of it. It

4:23

was like as a brother. It's like you're

4:24

seeing your brother just get completely

4:27

It was It was great. So, that was really

4:30

special. Freeberg, any any take on this?

4:32

I I noticed you didn't make it. You

4:34

didn't make the cut. My invite got eaten

4:36

by moose obviously as we heard earlier,

4:38

but uh I thought you for sure would get

4:41

a seat. What happened for you? bring no

4:42

seat for you.

4:43

>> I work in agriculture, Jay Cal. So,

4:45

we're doing the agriculture dinner next

4:46

month. It's going to be great. The

4:47

president and I are arranging a round

4:49

table. It's going to be fantastic. Yeah,

4:51

just kidding.

4:52

>> No, but I was in DC.

4:53

>> So, if I eat my vegetables, I can come

4:55

to them.

4:55

>> No, no, I was in DC with the guys. I

4:57

actually did an interview with Senator

4:59

Rand Paul, which you'll which I think is

5:01

out on YouTube now and on our podcast

5:04

channels. It was great to sit down with

5:06

the Senator.

5:06

>> What was the highlight of the uh of the

5:08

the Paul interview? I didn't get to

5:10

watch it yet. Apologies. as I was

5:11

getting ready for the summit. But did

5:13

you have a highlight or two you want to

5:14

share with us?

5:14

>> I mean he he's an interesting guy. A lot

5:17

of people have challenged him because

5:21

he's an independent thinker. He really

5:24

is true kind of libertarian views and

5:26

libertarian beliefs and he's held firm

5:28

to them despite bucking with the party

5:30

which he did recently on the big

5:32

beautiful bill. You know he was one of

5:33

three Republicans to vote against it. So

5:35

he's criticized and chastised and, you

5:38

know, ousted in a lot of different

5:40

circles in DC because he doesn't kind of

5:41

fall in line. But I do think that

5:43

dissent and debate is critical and

5:47

important for us to find the better path

5:48

forward. And I I like the role that he

5:50

plays. And I think he's very first

5:52

principled. And I think his talking

5:54

about his ability to get elected despite

5:58

not being willing to always fall in line

5:59

with the party is a really important

6:01

point. and he hopes it will inspire

6:03

other politicians to follow the same

6:05

path and for voters to see that there is

6:07

a role for independent thinkers in

6:09

Congress.

6:10

>> Yeah, I mean that is something we need.

6:12

It seems like these parties just get

6:14

locked step. They're expected to vote

6:16

the same. They're vote on party lines

6:18

and sachs that is definitely a weakness

6:22

I think of the two-party system. your

6:23

thoughts on uh Ran Paul and his you know

6:27

being a bit of an agitator maybe like

6:30

Mansion was that there's a role for

6:32

this. Yeah. In our democracy.

6:34

>> Well, I think it's good to hear from a

6:35

libertarian voice once in a while

6:37

they're going to have a different sort

6:38

of conservative

6:39

>> once in a while. I caught that too.

6:42

>> They're going to have a different sort

6:43

of viewpoint that could be called

6:45

conservative. So, I like grandp. But can

6:47

we just go back to the the dinner? I

6:49

want to just yeah

6:50

>> build on a point that Chimath made about

6:52

the level of sort of comey in in the

6:55

room.

6:56

>> I think that the the people in the room

6:57

there it was remarkable even though a

7:00

lot of these companies are competing

7:01

with each other they were largely on the

7:04

same page with respect to what was

7:06

happening in the economy and the world

7:09

and with the kind of support they needed

7:11

for the tech industry to do well and for

7:14

the US economy to do well. And I think

7:17

the reason why they were largely happy

7:20

with the Trump administration is because

7:23

the Trump administration has been pro-

7:24

innovation, pro- infrastructure, which

7:27

includes being pro- energy, pro- export,

7:30

so these companies can sell their

7:31

products internationally. And then also

7:33

the thing that's been very important to

7:34

the Trump administration is proworker.

7:36

And you heard the president make all of

7:38

those points in his

7:40

critical AI speech that he gave on July

7:43

23rd at the AI summit that we

7:45

co-sponsored with Hill and Valley. So I

7:47

think a lot of the compliments that we

7:49

received were due to the agenda that the

7:52

president articulated so well at the AI

7:54

summit and the people in that room are

7:56

largely supportive of that policy. So, I

7:59

don't know if I would call it a love

8:00

fest, but I think it was an opportunity

8:01

for these tech leaders to articulate

8:05

their concerns where they could use

8:06

help. And I think the president, he's a

8:09

great listener, and he wanted to take in

8:12

their feedback and figure out how to

8:14

make the economy grow even faster.

8:16

>> I had so many questions from, you know,

8:18

behind the scenes, etc., like seating

8:20

arrangement, how's that discussed? The

8:22

first thing I'll say is the president

8:23

takes tremendous

8:26

control over these details. So I've said

8:29

this before about how conscientious he

8:31

is, but one of the things that he

8:32

noticed before was it was very difficult

8:35

to host press conferences or world

8:38

leaders outside in the Rose Garden. So

8:40

the way that it started was around 4:00

8:43

what happened was that David, and I'll

8:45

tell you because there was a joke about

8:46

this at dinner. David asked the

8:48

president, "Can we do a tour of the Oval

8:51

for all of the fans of Allin?" And the

8:54

president said, "Absolutely." So me,

8:57

Freeberg,

8:58

Sachs,

8:59

>> we went and Caroline Levit meets us and

9:02

walks us in. By the way, if you want to

9:06

see a star of stars,

9:09

like I've I've met few people like this

9:12

who exudes this level of competence. I

9:15

mean, I think it was the first thing

9:16

that Freeberg said after maybe like two

9:18

minutes of interacting with her. It's

9:19

like, "Wow, this may be the most

9:20

competent person I've ever spoken to.

9:23

She's outrageously good." So, she gets

9:25

us all, she cleans up some stuff that

9:27

had to be cleaned up, walks us in, and

9:30

the president gave us this tour. And the

9:33

beautiful thing about the tour, if you

9:34

are a student of American history, is

9:38

the history is on the walls. I mean from

9:41

George Washington to Abe Lincoln to even

9:43

Ben Franklin and the Declaration of

9:45

Independence Jason. And so we were able

9:47

to see all of that and and see all of

9:49

that in detail and he was able to talk

9:50

about it and then

9:52

>> as it kind of always does it veers where

9:55

you know he does the weave and he's like

9:57

guys what do we want to talk about and

9:59

free was able to ask some questions and

10:01

saxs and I and then it just became a

10:03

little bit more freewheeling like

10:05

>> well it turned into like a hang

10:06

>> a hang. Yeah. We we hung with the

10:08

president and then after we hung we

10:10

turned the cameras off and then we hung

10:12

like another half hour 45 minutes with

10:14

him. People are coming in the oval

10:17

but it's literally like an episode of

10:19

West Wing meets VEP meets like you know

10:22

it was like everyone's just chatting

10:23

going in and out. You meet all the

10:24

characters.

10:25

>> So then that ends and Sax had to do some

10:28

meetings in the oval with the president.

10:29

So we all leave and we're escorted into

10:33

>> I think it's the Roosevelt room. Sax, is

10:35

that right? Is that So when we get into

10:37

the Roosevelt room, this is where it

10:38

becomes surreal.

10:40

>> You're seeing the most powerful

10:43

people that have built these incredible

10:45

businesses. I think there's 30 people,

10:48

but the table can only fit like 15

10:50

people. And so you have like Tim and Sam

10:54

and Satia sitting on the couch over here

10:56

by these two chairs just like Dylan

10:58

Field and Alan Wag. And it's like the

11:01

funniest scene because everybody at that

11:04

moment all the ears are gone because

11:07

they know the context in which they're

11:09

they're there.

11:10

>> Yeah. In their own worlds, they're like

11:11

kings. But in the White House, you're

11:14

back.

11:15

>> You're sharing the backbench.

11:16

>> You're an American citizen who's there

11:18

to meet the president, right? But there

11:20

were some incredible people there. Some

11:22

people I I'd not really met before.

11:23

Safatz, lovely, and her husband. And

11:26

then there were some other people that

11:27

were just amazing. Jared Isaacman, which

11:30

is wonderful to see him. There was a

11:32

whole group of folks that were there.

11:35

And then

11:38

they say, "Hey guys, can you just get

11:39

into a single file line?" And so again,

11:43

it's like a it's like a surreal scene

11:45

where it's like Sundar Satya, Bill

11:47

Gates, survey

11:50

these people in a single file line.

11:52

>> I mean, you guys sound like you went

11:53

backstage at a Zeppelin concert.

11:55

Incredible.

11:56

>> No, dude. And then we're we're escorted

11:58

into the oval and this is like what's so

12:02

kind about what he does. He sits at the

12:05

at the Resolute desk and Mirith Or who's

12:09

incredible, she introduces everybody one

12:12

by one so that they hear their name. I

12:14

don't I it may sound like a a weird

12:16

thing, Jason, but like to hear your name

12:19

called

12:20

>> in the oval and then you stand beside

12:22

the president. He's seated and they have

12:26

a photo. They take this beautiful photo

12:28

and then the first person was Saffra and

12:32

her husband and her husband says, "Could

12:36

I take a pen?" I swear. So the president

12:39

says, "Of course, that's what they're

12:41

there for." So he gives him a challenge

12:43

coin and a pen.

12:46

Everybody takes one. So again, you're

12:48

seeing the leaders of these incredible

12:50

businesses. One by one, they get

12:53

announced. They go stand by the

12:54

president. They take a beautiful picture

12:55

and they take a coin and a pen. And then

12:57

we're all just kind of milling in the

12:59

oval after that's all done. And he says,

13:01

"Well, guys, we're going to talk at

13:02

dinner, but do you want to just start?"

13:05

And it was amazing because Sergey,

13:08

>> does he sit behind the desk then?

13:09

>> He's still sitting at the he's still

13:10

sitting. So anyways, Sergey asks a few

13:12

questions, really starts to get the

13:14

conversation going, which I which I

13:15

think was really good. And then he says,

13:17

"Okay guys, let's continue this

13:18

conversation at dinner." And so we exit

13:21

into the rose garden and this is where

13:24

our friend Sunonny Madro says on the way

13:28

like as we're walking says sir I hear

13:30

you have a playlist. Can we hear the

13:31

music? And so he takes the iPad turns

13:34

the music on and he apparently had been

13:36

tuning it and so now it's like he's got

13:39

a great playlist by the way. It's like

13:40

Fleetwood Mac. I mean like you're

13:41

hearing like all the classics and it's

13:43

just blasting in the Rose. I mean

13:46

blasting. Lisa Sue posted one of the

13:48

photos. You can see them all because

13:49

like the oval is small. Okay. So, just

13:51

to be clear. So, then

13:52

>> that's dinner.

13:53

>> Oh, wow. There you go.

13:54

>> It's stuffed. I mean, I'm right to the

13:57

left of Tim and Jamie Simmonoff is right

13:59

at the end. I And I think it's VC Rana

14:02

Dbe who's the owner of the Kings is

14:04

right there of the Sacramento Kings

14:05

started typical and then I think it's

14:06

me. I think I was standing kind of more

14:08

in the front there. Anyways, so we

14:11

leave. So, so if you just pause there.

14:13

So that window that's Sham Sankar who's

14:15

the CTO of Palanteer and behind him is

14:18

Dave Limp and then you can see Dylan

14:20

Field the founder and CEO of Figma.

14:21

That's the door you exit. You go into

14:23

the Rose Garden and then you walk

14:26

through and we walk down the hallway.

14:29

You guys have seen that before. And we

14:30

go into the to the east wing and they

14:33

say want to introduce the first lady.

14:37

So what happens is you walk into the

14:40

east wing, you walk upstairs and there's

14:43

a very elegant seating chart that they

14:45

make. It's actually a really good way of

14:47

doing it because normally what you would

14:49

do is you would walk around the table.

14:51

>> Yeah.

14:52

>> No, this is a much better system. So you

14:54

actually have a small model of the table

14:58

and so what happens is you go you you

15:00

can see where everybody is sitting and

15:02

then you see where you're sitting and

15:04

then there's an escort that takes you to

15:06

your seat. So, it's a really it's it's

15:09

done really well. I mean, for

15:10

>> it's very thoughtful. Yeah,

15:10

>> it's very thoughtful.

15:11

>> It was in the East Room where we also

15:13

did the crypto summit at the White House

15:15

and there's been other events there. But

15:17

let me just give a shout out to the

15:18

first lady, Melania Trump. She's very

15:20

interested in this topic of AI. And in

15:22

fact, earlier that day, we did an event

15:25

at the White House with the AI education

15:28

task force, which she's chairing. and

15:30

she's very passionate about making sure

15:31

that every school child in America has

15:34

access to AI so they can get AI

15:38

education. And we had dozens of

15:40

companies there at the White House

15:41

making pledges of resources to make sure

15:44

that teachers and students and families

15:46

will be able to have everything they

15:48

need for kids to learn AI so they have

15:51

the skills for this critical tool. So

15:54

this is a topic she's very interested

15:55

in. So she wanted to be at that dinner.

15:58

So then we get seated and people are

16:00

talking a little bit and he goes, "Guys,

16:02

if it's okay with you, we're just going

16:03

to let the press in." And I thought what

16:05

that meant was a few people, I mean,

16:09

I've never seen anything like this

16:10

before. It It's like a zoo entered

16:14

>> the East Wing like cameras, boom,

16:18

microphones.

16:19

>> Oh, the gaggle.

16:20

>> The gaggle. They start screaming because

16:23

like everybody's trying to shout over

16:25

each other to try to be able to ask

16:27

questions. But then, you know, the

16:29

president kind of imposes control and

16:30

says, "Guys, hold on." And then he

16:32

allowed the CEOs of the of the big

16:35

companies to say something and then

16:37

Gates said something

16:39

and then that kind of set the tone and

16:40

obviously he said something and then he

16:42

said, "Anybody have any questions?" And

16:44

then they just start screaming. I mean,

16:47

and there are people running around with

16:49

mics. I don't know

16:51

how you pick who gets to say something

16:53

quite honestly because the question

16:55

procedure it's out of control.

16:56

>> No, but but you know what's crazy is the

16:57

questions are so all over the place. I

17:00

don't know how you can be prepared like

17:02

he knows what he's saying. He's very

17:03

purposeful with what he's saying. I

17:04

don't know how you do that because the

17:06

questions are all over the place and you

17:08

could tell like cuz one of them asked

17:09

Zuck questions. Zuck was like what's

17:11

going on Zuck? Zuck Zuck what about your

17:14

12 houses in Palo Alto Zuck?

17:16

I mean, no, it was a tougher question.

17:18

>> What was that? I

17:19

>> It was about free speech and the UK and

17:21

he did a pretty good job.

17:23

>> Zach, my Instagram account's locked. Can

17:25

you help me? My Instagram.

17:26

>> Anyway, so then so then they leave and

17:28

then

17:29

>> Well, by the way, they have to be like

17:30

thrown out, you know. They don't just

17:32

leave. They're out of control. They make

17:34

coral, you know.

17:35

>> Yeah. And then we had this lovely three

17:37

course dinner and then right after the

17:38

appetizer, I think like he starts going

17:40

around and people just start talking and

17:42

saying things and things that are on

17:43

their mind. And I'm I'm not going to

17:45

share anything from that from that. But

17:46

I thought I thought that was pretty

17:48

illuminating and pretty awesome.

17:49

>> Let me ask you a candid question.

17:51

>> And challenge him on any topics. Were

17:53

there any I mean we saw there's a lot of

17:55

agilation. People thank you Mr.

17:56

President. There's a lot of difference.

17:58

Anybody throw him a fastball, curveball?

18:00

Was there any challenging question in

18:02

that format?

18:03

>> It's not about asking him questions like

18:05

you're interviewing him. But there are

18:06

people that brought up challenging

18:08

things that they are dealing with.

18:09

>> Yeah, that's what I mean.

18:10

>> But that No, that is not what you said.

18:12

So,

18:13

>> no, no, it's something that maybe is not

18:15

aligned with maybe how the

18:16

administration is doing things. That's

18:18

what I'm sort of getting at.

18:20

>> Okay. No, but that's again you're trying

18:21

to like Nobody's there to gotcha. People

18:23

are like, "Sir, I'm dealing with this

18:25

specific issue in this specific country.

18:26

Can you help?"

18:27

>> Ah, got it. Well, I was thinking like

18:28

immigration, high skilled in

18:30

immigration. That seems like a topic

18:31

everybody cares about in our industry.

18:33

I'll

18:34

>> tell you what we talked about. The

18:36

issues that they had are many and they

18:40

have to deal with how American companies

18:43

can build businesses in a seamless,

18:47

straightforward way. And what they said

18:50

is since Biden, what Trump has done is

18:53

clean the decks and allowed them. They

18:55

all said that. They didn't they weren't

18:56

forced to say that. They all said it,

18:58

which I thought was really cool. This is

18:59

again why I said earlier, super proud of

19:02

what David has done. Like it was

19:05

palpable the respect that all these guys

19:06

had for him, which is awesome. But then

19:08

what the president says is, I could take

19:10

care of this. I can do that. That's not

19:13

going to stand. He's like what you see

19:15

is you have these American titans of

19:17

industry. I've said this before, Jason.

19:20

The whole premise of the American dream,

19:22

I think, rests on economic and military

19:24

supremacy. That is derived from

19:27

technical supremacy.

19:29

That group of people are

19:31

the geniuses that create the technical

19:34

supremacy for the world. And he is their

19:36

biggest advocate. And that's inspiring

19:39

because it's like they are like sir

19:41

here's what we need and he's like great

19:44

I'm going to go to that for you and try

19:45

to get what you need. And so there was

19:47

that conversation and then there was a

19:49

joke and he said at the end something to

19:51

along the lines of ah you know I had to

19:54

it's a tough day or something like I had

19:56

to I had to film a segment for David's

19:58

dumb podcast. Just said it like as a

20:00

joke. So everybody everybody everybody

20:02

starts laughing

20:04

>> and then Zuck piles on. He goes, "Well,

20:06

the only dumb parts are Chimat's parts

20:08

and

20:10

everybody else starts laughing." But

20:11

when Zuck said it, he's leaning back.

20:15

>> And then he loses his balance.

20:18

>> Sax Saxs with the tism is just looking

20:20

straight ahead at Timco.

20:23

>> I I am like I don't know what to do. Nat

20:28

caught Zuck. Nat pulls her arm. I don't

20:29

know how she got there. It was a really

20:31

sweet moment. And then

20:32

>> I had a favorite moment actually. It

20:33

occurred after you guys left the White

20:35

House. Here it is. This is Chimat's

20:38

greatest moment.

20:39

>> There is a Chimat super fan. As you can

20:41

see there,

20:42

>> that's a Chimat super fan. And he's

20:44

signing multiple pictures from all

20:46

different eras. Those will be on eBay

20:48

later.

20:51

>> Look at this guy. I just want to back up

20:53

and say one of the reasons why I thought

20:55

it would be cool for us to kind of do

20:57

this interview in the Oval where the

20:59

president kind of gave us a tour of the

21:01

changes he had made to the White House

21:03

is I was getting a tour with my family

21:06

one weekend of the White House and the

21:07

guides who do these tours were telling

21:10

us about how much care the president

21:12

takes in the condition of the White

21:15

House and all the upgrades that he's

21:17

made. And they've seen him walking

21:19

around and he'll pick out paintings and

21:21

art. they'll move things around. He got

21:23

a whole bunch of paintings out of

21:24

storage. All the paintings that are now

21:26

in the Oval Office are ones that he

21:28

directly picked out. And they also said

21:31

that when he sees something wrong, like

21:34

with the landscaping or, you know, he'll

21:36

call a gardener over and give him notes

21:38

on how to make it look better. And the

21:40

president himself posted a truth a few

21:43

days ago where the new pavers on the

21:46

Rose Garden patio got damaged. There was

21:48

like a big scratch and see that video.

21:52

He caught them online. He caught the He

21:54

caught he caught the delivery guys.

21:55

>> He went to the tape to figure out who

21:57

did it. Yeah.

21:58

>> Yeah. That's That's a New York

22:00

developer. And not only that, he fired

22:02

them and he's making them pay for it and

22:04

they got to buff it or something. Yeah.

22:06

>> It's funny. He told us the story at the

22:07

dinner that the the contractor who got

22:09

fired was devastated. So, he's probably

22:10

going to have to hire them back cuz, you

22:12

know, he's

22:12

>> he's too nice. And

22:14

>> he asked everybody. He's like, "Do you

22:15

guys think I should hire him back?"

22:16

We're like, "Yes, I heard the guy." He's

22:18

like, "I'll probably hire him back."

22:19

>> It started as a tour. It was supposed to

22:21

be a tour. We were going to see the Rose

22:23

Garden and other things. And then it

22:25

rained and so we just stayed in the oval

22:27

and then it became like more of like a

22:29

hang.

22:31

>> Oh, wow. You guys are going to make that

22:33

into an episode. That's going to be an

22:34

episode. Oh, that's incredible.

22:36

>> Okay. So, Jason, like look, you see the

22:39

couple days before and the president

22:40

tweeted about this, Nick. I sent that to

22:42

you. You have India, Russia and China

22:44

kind of like fratinizing and then one or

22:47

two days later the president convenes

22:50

this dinner of I think you know some

22:52

incredible entrepreneurs building a lot

22:55

of the really important things that the

22:56

world needs in the future. I don't know

22:58

what your reaction is when you see the

23:00

kind of like

23:01

>> I mean yeah there's a legion of doom

23:02

there the uh Putin and she and uh not

23:06

Modi maybe but he he's obviously making

23:08

a point but you know overall I had a lot

23:11

of thoughts about it. But I did a I did

23:12

a press hit.

23:14

Of the 20 people there or so, I'm not

23:16

sure what the exact number was. I'm just

23:18

eyeballing it here.

23:19

>> I think we're at 2930.

23:20

>> I think about 19 of them are lifelong

23:24

Democrats who have switched to this

23:25

party. And and I I think the Democrats

23:27

need to look at this. This opportunity

23:29

was always there for the Democrats. But

23:31

what did they choose? They chose to take

23:34

the position of ban the billionaires and

23:35

an agenda that makes no sense. And if

23:38

you had invited this group of people, if

23:40

you were Biden or Kamla and you invited

23:41

this group of people to come to the

23:42

White House, they would have come as

23:43

well and you could have a really

23:45

thoughtful conversation about them. What

23:47

the Democratic positions might be, you

23:49

know, wages, healthcare, and and this

23:53

same group of people would have engaged,

23:55

but they were not allowed to access the

23:57

White House. They were not allowed to

23:59

have a dialogue. And I think they

24:01

pursued, you know, very weird agenda.

24:04

And you got Nancy Pelosi out there day

24:06

trading. got AOC and the socialists, you

24:08

know, pursuing some crazy agenda. What

24:11

do you expect people to do if you tell

24:13

them we don't want to hear your

24:16

concerns? We don't want to engage with

24:19

you in debate. You can have all kinds of

24:21

differences with Trump on style. I do.

24:23

You could have policy issues. I do. But

24:26

as a moderate, when I see something like

24:28

this, I just got to give, you know, you

24:30

a lot of credit, Saxs, for being able to

24:33

give access to the president and give

24:35

the president access to these

24:36

individuals and let an all these

24:39

important discussions happen and then

24:40

the group can act as one in the American

24:43

people's interest. And I think it's very

24:44

important for the Democrats to learn

24:47

something here, which is 90% of

24:49

Americans aspire to be billionaires. and

24:51

10% maybe they're you know socialists

24:54

moon communists whatever they are it's

24:57

fine they can pick and choose what they

24:59

believe is important in the world but

25:01

Americans love these individuals they

25:03

love these products and services and 70%

25:06

of the top 50 companies in the world by

25:10

market cap are American companies this

25:13

is the best of America this is the best

25:15

of the American dream and it's great

25:17

that they can go and have debates with

25:19

the president that was you know to my

25:20

earlier question like I know a lot of

25:22

these guys have some issues with the

25:23

president or certain issues tariffs etc.

25:26

This is an important I think moment in

25:30

time to just say Trump 2.0 I know is

25:33

engaging the business community and

25:35

meeting them where they are and saying

25:37

how can I help you grow faster? How can

25:39

we compete? America is not the only game

25:41

in town. Now, as you saw with Modi, you

25:44

know, creating this alliance with she

25:46

and Putin, it's imperative for the

25:48

American companies to excel and create

25:51

jobs. And we have the lowest

25:52

unemployment. We'll talk about

25:53

employment today. There's some new

25:55

statistics. We have the lowest

25:56

unemployment of our lifetimes. It's for

25:58

a reason. It's not because of any

25:59

president. It's because of these great

26:00

companies. We should be celebrating

26:02

them. And the president's done an

26:03

exceptional job of doing what all

26:06

Americans do. We celebrate these

26:07

companies. We love the iPhone. We love

26:09

Teslas. We We love these products and

26:11

services people are building. People

26:12

love Google. They love chat GBT. It's

26:14

fantastic. And so it's easy to be

26:16

cynical,

26:18

you know, about business or business

26:19

leaders, but uh this was really, I

26:22

think, a great show of force and it

26:24

shows the country's getting in sync on

26:26

what matters and that has it should be

26:28

independent of political parties. So I

26:30

was very proud of you, David, that you

26:31

built this bridge and you built it brick

26:33

by brick and I think yet to come. Well,

26:36

I mean, just to be clear, I mean,

26:38

obviously the president already had

26:39

access to all these people and in fact,

26:41

many of them were already on speed dial

26:43

and he already knew them and he he's the

26:45

one who convened them at the White

26:46

House. I've just been helping with

26:48

policy. So, I don't want to just be

26:51

clear about that. Well, I'm not

26:52

overstating it, but I'm I'm I'm even

26:54

going back six months when you guys held

26:56

the fundraiser and then just, you know,

26:58

you see like a very close friend of

27:00

mine, Mark Pinkis, lifelong Democrat,

27:02

has donated, you know, probably eight

27:04

figures to the Dems in total over the

27:06

years and he got frustrated at a certain

27:08

point that he couldn't get his calls

27:09

returned or he couldn't have important

27:11

discussions. Well, here we are. He was

27:12

at that dinner. I think that's a very

27:15

important lesson. The Democrats need to

27:17

feel moderates, business leaders. They

27:19

got their Bob Igor, they got Jamie

27:20

Diamond, they got a bunch of people who

27:22

could help, you know, build an agenda

27:24

that's not lunacy.

27:26

>> Yeah. And what I would say is is look,

27:28

maybe half the people at the dinner have

27:31

actually moved to the center or to the

27:34

right relative to where they were. And I

27:35

think Mark Pinkis has basically put

27:37

himself in that category. So there's

27:39

people who have like been red pilling

27:41

and moving over to our side. And then

27:44

I'd say the other half people in the

27:45

room haven't necessarily changed their

27:46

politics and they're just there to do

27:47

business. They want to have a good

27:49

relationship with the government. But

27:50

the same is true on the part of the

27:51

president. You I saw some conservative

27:53

influencers saying, "How can the

27:54

president meet with this person or that

27:56

person? He's been such an opponent in

27:57

the past." I mean, look, the president

27:59

is doing business as well. He asks all

28:01

the attendees of the dinner, "How much

28:03

are you investing in America?" You know,

28:05

what do you need to invest more? He

28:06

wants to see the infrastructure

28:08

investment. Why? Because it benefits all

28:10

Americans, not just software companies.

28:12

It benefits the construction industry,

28:14

the trades, the electricians, the

28:16

carpenters, the energy companies,

28:18

fracking and so on. So he he's there

28:21

representing the interests of the

28:22

country and then many of those CEOs are

28:24

representing the interests of their

28:25

companies and there's a dialogue going

28:27

on and it doesn't mean that everyone has

28:29

to like suddenly become a Republican or

28:31

change their politics. But it's

28:32

constructive and this is all in

28:35

furtherance of having the US economy

28:38

grow better.

28:39

>> All right, perfect segue. We got lots to

28:41

talk about in terms of the economy. And

28:44

uh first story here, Trump's tariffs got

28:47

overturned in court. Federal appeals

28:49

court ruled 74 that Trump exceeded his

28:52

authority when it comes to the Emergency

28:55

Economic Powers Act. Okay, we'll get

28:57

into the details here. Historically,

28:59

Congress was in charge of tariffs, but

29:02

under an emergency, a national

29:05

emergency, the president can get

29:07

involved with tariffs. and they cited

29:10

the 47th administration fentinyl crisis

29:12

at the borders, Mexico, Canada, China,

29:15

etc., and the trade deficits. Well, the

29:18

White House got sued by a group

29:21

representing small businesses. In May,

29:23

two federal courts ruled that he

29:25

wrongfully uh invoked the EA and the

29:31

White House appealed that. They've now

29:32

lost and Trump's tariffs will remain in

29:34

effect until October 14th allowing the

29:38

Supreme Court to appeal this. These

29:41

tariffs have been tremendously unpopular

29:43

in the business sector. Uh I think maybe

29:46

70 80% of business leaders in a recent

29:48

survey sack said that they don't they're

29:50

not crazy about them. But they have on

29:52

the other side generated over $150

29:54

billion in revenue in a couple of short

29:57

months. So they could generate trillions

30:00

of dollars in the next decade according

30:02

to estimates. I guess the question I

30:05

have for you Sachs is you guys are

30:07

moving uh at the White House there in

30:09

this administration, the executive

30:10

branch at startup speed, moving fast and

30:13

break things is something we talk about

30:15

doing in our industry and uh is this

30:19

just the natural extension of that? The

30:21

president is doing a lot of aggressive

30:22

things and sometimes they're going to be

30:24

allowed, sometimes they're not. What's

30:25

your take? Well, I'm not concerned about

30:27

the fate of tariffs at the Supreme

30:29

Court, even though it's probably a coin

30:31

flip, whether the Supreme Court's going

30:33

to allow the tariffs under AIPA,

30:36

but there are five different laws under

30:39

which the president has the authority to

30:41

impose these tariffs. So, there's a

30:44

chart here that we can throw up on the

30:45

screen. There's section 232, there's

30:47

section 2011, section 301, section 122,

30:51

section 338. There are at least five

30:53

different bases for the president's

30:55

authority to impose tariffs. So, at the

30:58

end of the day, I think it's actually

30:59

quite unlikely that the Supreme Court's

31:02

going to force a change in tariff

31:04

policy. And I don't think the Supreme

31:06

Court sees it as this urgent matter that

31:09

requires a a quick resolution. So, I'm

31:12

not particularly worried about it. In

31:13

terms of the popularity of the tariffs,

31:15

my guess is that they're not going to be

31:17

reversed in the future by a future

31:19

president because I think they actually

31:20

are quite popular with the country, with

31:22

workers. Among the business elite, it's

31:25

more mixed. I'll grant you that. But if

31:28

you change the way you ask the question

31:30

from are you in favor of these tariffs

31:32

to are you in favor of raising 4

31:36

trillion in revenue over the next decade

31:38

through tariffs to fund a tax cut like

31:41

we had in the big beautiful bill then

31:43

that might change people's perception of

31:44

it. So that's really the question is is

31:47

how do you want to raise revenue for the

31:49

government? And between big beautiful

31:51

bill and the tariffs, what you see is a

31:55

substitution from taxing Americans to

31:58

taxing foreign companies unless those

32:01

foreign companies then make a big

32:02

investment in America. So look, there's

32:05

no great way to extract revenue from the

32:08

private sector. all taxation is is

32:11

unfortunate and undesirable and be

32:13

better if we didn't have to tax so much.

32:16

But the reality is I think that if you

32:18

have a choice between taxing American

32:20

people or imposing tariffs, I think

32:22

tariffs may be the better way to do it.

32:24

And I just want to note that the CBO

32:27

has now increased their projection of

32:30

what tariffs will raise to 4 trillion

32:33

over the next decade. So

32:35

>> 400 billion a year. It's pretty

32:37

significant,

32:38

>> right? And initially it started as a

32:39

lower number and it completely pays for

32:42

the one big beautiful bill.

32:43

>> Chimoth, here's the chart. Tar Trump's

32:45

tariffs were meant to help

32:46

manufacturers. Do manufacturing firms

32:48

think they're helping? Has your business

32:50

been impacted by higher tariffs this

32:51

year? And uh here negative impact 72% of

32:55

manufacturers. 3.7% think it helped and

32:58

uh 17% said no impact. 7% don't know

33:01

yet. Your thoughts on tariffs? are

33:03

obviously unpopular with people in

33:06

retail manufacturing in those

33:07

businesses, but as Axe points out, hey,

33:10

maybe the American people like them and

33:11

they like the idea of a new revenue

33:13

stream. What are your thoughts, Shiman?

33:14

>> I think that the tariffs on balance are

33:17

a pretty smart master stroke of

33:20

strategy. I think that we did not

33:22

understand

33:24

what the impact of tariffs would be

33:27

except for

33:29

hypothetical

33:31

econ wonk talk.

33:34

And so that hypothetical econ wonk talk

33:37

basically said that tariffs were always

33:39

going to be a disaster. And if you ask

33:41

them, well, what is the actual practical

33:42

data that you would point to? They

33:45

didn't have any. It was just more

33:46

hypothesis.

33:48

But what is the practical data now? I

33:50

think that the United States is going to

33:53

book

33:55

probably close to half a trillion of of

33:57

incremental revenue.

34:00

It's actually forced a stabilization in

34:03

the dollar,

34:05

which I think that people were always

34:07

very concerned with. What's going to

34:09

happen to the dollar complex? Everybody

34:11

always screams like with a like their

34:14

hair is on fire.

34:17

But the dollar complex has stabilized, I

34:19

think, because of tariffs. So, there's

34:21

been some real positives. And what Sax

34:23

says is right, which is whoever is

34:26

president over the next, you know, 5,

34:29

10, 15, 20, 30 years, there'll be some

34:32

Democrats, there'll be some Republicans.

34:34

It's going to be very hard to justify

34:36

why you would undo this now because this

34:38

source of revenue is going to be an

34:40

incredibly important one.

34:41

>> Well, and also it's not just the fact

34:43

that the revenue is very important. You

34:44

rais a great point, which is the US

34:46

government's going to become dependent

34:47

on that revenue, but also just workers.

34:49

I think the tariffs are very popular

34:50

with bluecollar workers.

34:52

auto workers really like it.

34:54

>> Well, here's what I was going to this

34:56

the the pie chart that you showed

35:00

is not accurate. And the reason it's not

35:03

accurate is that the investment cases

35:06

that you would underwrite because of

35:08

tariffs and the big beautiful bill

35:09

haven't happened. So, I'll give you an

35:12

example. I am a person that started a

35:15

business that is building a factory to

35:18

make batteries in my specific example in

35:20

Michigan. So to delever away from China

35:24

for the battery supply chain and what I

35:26

will tell you Jason is after the big

35:28

beautiful bill and because of tariffs it

35:31

is much easier now for me to underwrite.

35:33

Why? Because I have 100% depreciation

35:35

across all my capex it's a complete

35:37

changer on the IRRa of these projects.

35:39

So before where I would have to raise

35:42

billions of dollars from outsiders, I

35:45

can subsidize a lot more of it

35:46

internally because I can actually

35:48

underwrite to a better gain because the

35:50

the tax savings are so meaningful. Same

35:53

thing for this data center that I'm

35:54

building in Arizona. So in all of these

35:57

cases, I think that a you have this

36:00

uptick in revenue because of tariffs on

36:01

the short term and b the important thing

36:04

is to redo this pie chart in probably a

36:06

year. Like for example, our

36:08

groundbreaking in Michigan will be in

36:09

July of next year for that factory.

36:12

It'll be online 2 years after that. The

36:15

real story, Jason, of all of this will

36:17

be really known in that period. But

36:19

right now, what I'll tell you is the

36:21

underwriting case for putting a ton of

36:23

money into the United States has changed

36:26

to the positive because of these

36:27

>> because that 100% depreciation.

36:30

>> It's a huge deal.

36:31

>> Yeah. Whether you're buying plane,

36:33

>> yum yum. All in aviation. Freeberg,

36:36

here's your poly market. Will tariffs

36:38

generate greater than 250 billion? It's

36:41

uh peaked at like 30%, it's come back

36:43

down to five. Most people are betting.

36:45

So, this could be a case of free money

36:47

if people want to go get it on poly

36:48

market because it has a pretty good

36:50

chance of hitting that. But

36:51

>> well, the number the number I said,

36:52

Jason, is like a yearly run rate. So,

36:54

technically, if you just look at the

36:56

calendar 25, you you only get a stub of

36:58

eight months because it starts April

36:59

1st.

37:00

>> 8 months, 50k a month, 50 uh billion a

37:03

month to get to 400 billion. So they

37:04

should be able actually think they're

37:05

going to hit that bogey. But Freeberg,

37:08

the

37:10

reports from people who have been

37:12

impacted by tariffs. Obviously these

37:14

could become inflationary, but the

37:17

people who are being impacted said

37:18

they've been eating them to date, but

37:20

they're not going to be able to eat them

37:22

forever. So it could become

37:23

inflationary. What are your thoughts on

37:25

the tariff kfluffle here and and the

37:28

legal battle over them as well as the

37:30

impact it might have on inflation which

37:33

is something we do not want to see come

37:34

back and we have been teetering just

37:36

under that 3% number which then puts the

37:39

Fed obviously in difficult position with

37:41

their mandate to get to two Freeberg

37:44

>> I'll address the legal kurfuffle point

37:46

which I think is a good one because I do

37:48

think that the great debate that's going

37:51

to happen from this presidency

37:53

and will likely shape the next set of

37:56

presidencies

37:58

will be the right for presidents to

38:00

declare emergencies to move forward

38:02

their legislative agenda

38:05

and arguably the tariff

38:09

institution by many members of Congress

38:12

should have gone through a congressional

38:14

process. In the meeting I did with Ran

38:16

Paul this week which has now been

38:18

posted, he talked about the challenge

38:20

that they have had with Democratic

38:22

presidents Biden and prior to that using

38:26

emergency authorization vested to them

38:28

under the National Emergencies Act which

38:30

is a 1976 statutory authority to take

38:34

action and then in order for the

38:37

emergency powers to be turned off,

38:39

Congress actually has to vote and they

38:41

can only do so after 30 days. And when

38:43

Congress makes that vote, the president

38:47

can veto their vote. So the president

38:49

can then say, "Send it back." So then

38:51

they have to get a two-third

38:52

supermajority to get it to pass. So it

38:55

creates a system whereby the president

38:57

can have this emergency authorization to

38:59

progress much of their legislative

39:01

agenda under the guise of emergency

39:03

powers, which you know, for many people

39:07

they would say is not the right way to

39:08

do it. So, Senator Paul and others have

39:10

proposed bills, for example, that the

39:12

president has to get any emergency power

39:14

reauthorized after 30 days

39:17

and then it can only be a maximum of 90

39:19

days without Congress enacting a a

39:21

renewal. And so, it requires actual

39:23

congressional action to continue the

39:25

authority of that emergency power

39:28

depending on what the Supreme Court does

39:29

or doesn't do. I think it is going to

39:31

catalyze a legislative push and the

39:34

Republicans are likely not going to

39:35

embrace it this presidency or this term

39:37

because President Trump is in office.

39:39

But I think the conversation that some,

39:42

you know, out of the box Republicans

39:44

like Senator Paul and others are saying

39:46

is, well, what's going to happen next

39:47

time? What's going to happen when

39:48

there's a Democrat president and we

39:50

don't

39:50

>> AOC is going to emergency powers to do

39:53

something you might not like, right? Is

39:55

that your point?

39:56

>> Yeah. And so as it relates to both the

39:57

AIPA of 1977, which is the act that this

40:01

case is about, but also the National

40:03

Emergencies Act of 1976, should they go

40:06

back and pass a new law that basically

40:08

forces the president to have to get

40:10

congressional approval for any emergency

40:12

to last longer than 30 days? So I do

40:15

think that's going to be the big debate

40:16

that's going to come out of this. As it

40:18

relates to the tariff revenue, I am most

40:21

worried about the fact that we use the

40:23

tariff revenue, as I said before, to

40:25

offset spending and basically keep a

40:28

baseline of spending without actually

40:29

getting ourselves to that deficit

40:31

target. Right now, we are going to

40:33

vaporize and create debt of $2 trillion

40:36

this fiscal year. So, we're using the

40:40

the tariff revenue under the CDO scoring

40:44

to basically say, "Hey, we can do these

40:45

tax cuts because it's offset." But the

40:48

goal shouldn't be to offset. The goal

40:50

should be to get cuts to actually reduce

40:52

the deficit. And so, that's the biggest

40:54

concern I have with respect to the

40:55

tariffs long term is it's now a new

40:58

revenue source that we don't actually

40:59

treat as incremental to reduce deficit.

41:01

We just use it as a way to introduce new

41:03

spending or continue spending. Sachs,

41:05

just to um you know talk about the three

41:08

branches of government, wouldn't it also

41:11

be an option for the president just to

41:12

go to Congress with some of these

41:13

tariffs and say, "Hey, can I get these

41:15

approved?" Would that be the worst thing

41:16

in the world? Wouldn't they vote for it?

41:20

>> I mean, but yeah, things take time. Do

41:23

you have concerns that President AOC

41:24

might do some things with executive

41:26

powers that the Republican party might

41:28

be opposed to if she winds up winning in

41:30

2028? That's an important question, Sax,

41:32

is if AOCC's president and then she uses

41:34

her emergency authorization to do things

41:36

that you disagree with, wouldn't the

41:38

Republicans then feel regret that they

41:40

didn't pass one of these acts that

41:42

limits emergency authorization and

41:44

power?

41:44

>> Well, look, I I think that in general,

41:46

when you have a policy that you want to

41:49

last for a long time, the best thing to

41:51

do is to codify it into law because

41:54

executive orders obviously only last

41:56

until the next president decides they

41:58

don't want them anymore. So yeah, it may

42:01

make sense after the administration

42:04

hopefully wins its case to seek to

42:06

codify these things into law. We have a

42:09

few years to do that, but I don't think

42:11

it makes sense to wait for Congress to

42:13

act because they may never act. And in

42:15

fact, it was President Trump who shifted

42:16

the whole debate on this topic. I mean,

42:18

the whole establishment of both the

42:20

Republican and Democrat parties were

42:22

very against tariffs and it's pretty

42:24

obvious that nothing would have happened

42:25

on this issue and he's completely moved

42:28

the debate. So, this is just one where I

42:30

think he's acted unilaterally because he

42:33

had to. But I think that once these

42:36

tariffs are in place for a few years, I

42:38

don't think they're going to get pulled

42:40

back by a future president because I

42:41

think they're going to

42:42

>> it's too much money

42:43

>> become quite popular.

42:44

>> It's too much money.

42:45

>> Okay. In the other cases, two more lower

42:47

courts have ruled against Trump. One

42:49

said the deployment of the Marines and

42:50

the National Guard were illegal. One

42:52

said he can't freeze research funds for

42:54

Harvard. So, again, back to moving fast

42:56

and breaking things.

42:59

These cases are making their way through

43:01

the courts and there has been some

43:03

resistance

43:05

to sending in the National Guard which

43:08

is something there's been a bit of saber

43:10

rattling chimoth about maybe going into

43:12

Chicago next. What are your thoughts on

43:14

the National Guard issue?

43:16

>> They should look here's the thing. Who

43:18

is against safety and security?

43:22

Who

43:24

and why? I don't understand. So if you

43:27

can't do your job, look, you have to

43:29

remember Jason, let's take where we live

43:32

in California, where you used to live.

43:34

>> Yep. Not anymore.

43:35

>> 13% of our income goes towards state

43:39

coffers

43:41

and then we pay real estate taxes and

43:43

all of the stuff that goes to local

43:44

municipalities. What are you doing with

43:46

that money if you're not making the

43:47

places we live safe? And then the second

43:50

thing would be making the schools good.

43:52

And so if you can't do it, if you can't

43:55

do it, of course somebody else should

43:57

step in. And frankly, what I have heard

43:59

consistently is even though the talking

44:01

point has to be, "Oh my god, woe is me.

44:03

We can do the job." Everybody behind the

44:06

scenes like, "Oh, thank God they're

44:07

here." Anybody who is being impacted by

44:08

crime would like to see the National

44:10

Guard come in and remove encampments or

44:12

drug dealers or get drugs off the

44:14

streets. Saxs, you know, you're a um my

44:19

perception would be that you think that

44:21

there should be separations between the

44:23

executive branch and uh maybe the states

44:26

and that this rule breaking of sending

44:28

in the national guard that would go

44:29

against the rules of the sovereignty of

44:31

the states. So, putting aside Chamat's

44:34

point, which is completely valid, that

44:35

they haven't done a good job here and it

44:38

it is illegal as the judges are pointing

44:40

out, do you have concerns about that?

44:42

>> Okay. Well, first of all, I reject this

44:44

characterization that it's the Trump

44:46

administration that's moved fast and

44:48

breaking things. If you recall

44:50

>> fast, let's just say moving fast.

44:52

>> Well, I think the president is taking

44:53

swift executive actions that are

44:55

popular. And you see this actually in

44:58

his poll ratings. He got the highest

44:59

approval rating he's ever had just in

45:02

the last week. And a big part of it is

45:04

because of the reduction in crime in DC.

45:06

I think he got to 55% approval on poll

45:08

rating. And even in DC, by the way, the

45:11

mayor and her staff have said all sorts

45:13

of positive things about the help

45:16

they've received now from the National

45:17

Guard and from the federal government.

45:19

And the citizens are extremely happy.

45:22

Crime is down. I think we had the first

45:24

two weeks where there was no murders in

45:26

the capital in a long time. The

45:27

residents are very happy. So, this is

45:29

definitely working. Now, with respect to

45:32

California, let me just point out that

45:35

the National Guard wasn't called in

45:37

specifically to enforce laws on the

45:39

street. What happened was that you had

45:42

ICE and Homeland Security agents and

45:44

workers were doing their job and they

45:48

were conducting some deportations and

45:50

then you had protests turn into riots

45:53

and those protesters were threatening to

45:55

burn down their headquarters and that's

45:57

why the National Guard had to be sent

45:59

in. So, it wasn't the Trump

46:00

administration breaking things. It was

46:02

riers who were breaking things. I can't

46:05

understand for the life of me why the

46:07

administration wouldn't be able to send

46:08

in the National Guard to protect federal

46:11

workers against riers, but apparently

46:14

that's the case. So, look, I think the

46:16

court reached a very specific decision

46:17

about what happened in California. We

46:19

still haven't had a case adjudicating

46:22

the question of whether the proposed

46:24

interventions in in these blue states to

46:26

clean up crime will be allowed over the

46:29

objections of Democrat governors. We

46:30

don't know.

46:31

>> I think it's pretty clear that the DC

46:33

intervention will be allowed and it's

46:36

extremely popular. And look,

46:37

>> the DC one he's legally allowed to do.

46:39

So yeah, he's got he's got his what was

46:40

it? A 30-day mandate. He can take it

46:42

over. And so here's your popularity from

46:46

the economist. It is ticking up, but um

46:49

Trump uh and the country still seems

46:51

pretty divided. 41% approved, 55%

46:53

disapproved, 3% unsure, but he has moved

46:56

up significantly in the last week.

46:58

Today, some big news came out Friday

47:00

with the uh soft jobs report. Pretty

47:02

much bad across the board. Jobs came in

47:04

super light, 22,000 added versus 75,000

47:07

expected. Most of the gains came from

47:10

part-time jobs. US lost 357 full-time

47:12

jobs while gaining 597,000 part-time

47:15

jobs last month. And uh this is after a

47:20

bunch of revisions. You guys remember we

47:21

talked about here a couple of times with

47:23

these revisions. And we'll show up some

47:26

uh charts with long-term revisions. July

47:28

revised up slightly by 6K, 73,000 to 79.

47:33

In June was revised down significantly.

47:35

Remember that impacted the market by

47:37

27,000. This makes June the first month

47:39

with a net loss of jobs since July of

47:41

2021.

47:43

So there's an account on XCOV letter and

47:46

they did this uh revisions chart. It's

47:48

pretty crazy as you can see.

47:51

May and June revisions were in the six

47:54

figures and they're constantly revising

47:57

these down it seems. All right. Uh free

47:59

break had some internet connectivity

48:01

issues apparently. But Shimoth, let's

48:03

talk about the revisions here and the

48:05

softness in the job market concerning.

48:08

Did maybe the Fed take too long to uh

48:11

get towards cuts in September? Uh what

48:13

what is what's your read on this and the

48:16

endless revisions?

48:17

>> Look, I think that I've said this yes

48:20

last week, I think, right? So I'll just

48:22

say it again this week. You can't run

48:25

the most sophisticated economy in the

48:27

world if you have data that is

48:30

completely unreliable in either

48:32

direction.

48:34

>> And so the problem with this jobs report

48:37

is there are already two competing

48:40

versions of the truth.

48:42

One group of people are trying to paint

48:44

the jobs report as

48:47

everything is working. There's nothing

48:48

to see here. Another group of people are

48:51

saying, "Oh, well, hold on. there's a

48:52

birth stats number where if you extract

48:56

that out the jobs numbers is actually

48:59

negative.

49:01

I don't know

49:03

which one is actually better in terms of

49:05

where we want to be right now going into

49:07

a rate cut cycle. So my general

49:10

commentary is the following. The BLS

49:14

and their approach is incredibly

49:16

brittle.

49:18

It doesn't work.

49:20

I think commerce has taken the first

49:21

right step which is to start publishing

49:25

useful economic data into the

49:27

blockchain.

49:28

I think we need to figure out a way and

49:30

this is where Congress should get their

49:31

act together and pass an incentive or a

49:35

requirement for certain parts of the

49:38

critical economic infrastructure of

49:39

America to report their data in an

49:42

anonymized way into a broad set of

49:45

blockchains.

49:47

And the reason is that you will have

49:49

very astute and precise pricing oracles

49:53

help distill that information. So if

49:56

you're ADP, if you're American Express,

49:58

if you're Stripe, there's an imperative

50:01

now for you to contribute the

50:03

information you have into a broad

50:05

collection of information so that we

50:06

have an accurate sense of what the hell

50:08

is actually going on. Because I can't

50:11

react to this number because I don't

50:12

know how it's going to change. It could

50:14

literally swing by 200,000 in either

50:16

direction. Jason,

50:17

>> this is a I think a really good point.

50:18

Here's some research. I had my uh put

50:20

one of my researchers at launch on this.

50:22

Here's 2021

50:24

and the initial reading first revision

50:26

and we did this for the year sach. So,

50:28

as you can see in 2021, they missed it

50:30

by 1.9 million uh which was about 15%.

50:34

2022 they miraculously nailed it. 2023

50:37

they were off by 10%. 2024 it looks like

50:41

they were off again by 10%. All this is

50:44

revising down by the way. in the first

50:46

half of this year. Let me just finish

50:47

the chart.

50:48

>> First half of this year,

50:50

>> initial reading 985, first revision 732,

50:53

second revision 497. So they were off by

50:55

50% so far this year alone.

50:58

This chart is itself inaccurate. The

51:01

table is

51:02

>> and and it's because it's coming from

51:04

the same people that measured. So you're

51:05

asking the people that measured to grade

51:07

themselves and I suspect that the answer

51:11

is actually much worse than all of this.

51:14

Now, what is the implication of it? The

51:16

implication of it is if you take the

51:18

most positive view possible, it's that

51:20

the people that then control the levers

51:21

of the economy don't actually have

51:23

accurate data. So, they'll be hesitant

51:25

to act until the data is overwhelming.

51:28

The most important lens of that will be

51:30

the Fed and what they do with rates. And

51:33

so, everybody's like, "Oh, wow. There's

51:35

a 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut."

51:38

That may be wildly wildly wildly

51:40

conservative in terms of the the total

51:42

amount that they need to be thinking

51:44

about and how they should phase that in.

51:47

But how would I actually prove that to

51:48

you? I can point to a whole litany of

51:51

private data,

51:53

>> but the problem is the federal actors

51:54

use public data and this data is not

51:58

useful.

52:00

And I think that when you get private

52:02

data into your hands, which I know that

52:06

other folks have, hedge funds, banks,

52:10

the White House, what they see is

52:13

different

52:15

than what the Fed sees. So what I would

52:19

tell you from this jobs report is it's

52:20

going to start again this clamor of what

52:24

is your plan?

52:26

>> Clapping is not a strategy. So a 25

52:29

basis point cut to a $32 trillion

52:33

economy is not a strategy. And I think

52:37

that the reason they don't know what to

52:38

do exactly is because they have

52:40

extremely faulty data. Again, this is

52:43

not I'm I'm not taking a position on

52:44

this or framing it as if I'm taking a

52:46

position. I'm just reporting the data

52:47

here as they've reported it. So I'm I'm

52:50

just doing that here just to be clear

52:52

here that I'm not endorsing any side of

52:54

this. I'm an independent. I'm a

52:55

moderate. I'm just giving you the data

52:56

as it stands. Here's the Fred chart just

52:59

so we can zoom out and see unemployment

53:01

since the 50s. We're still at historic

53:03

lows and there's a slight uptick 4.3%

53:06

which is the highest unemployment since

53:07

2021 but it's absurdly low historically.

53:11

So even we're looking historically sachs

53:14

we're still at very low but do you have

53:15

concerns that the economy could be

53:18

slowing and that we could have a jobs

53:20

issue? That I guess is the question that

53:23

is filling the airwaves on CNBC and that

53:25

everybody's talking about in group

53:26

chats. Are we uh maybe didn't make the

53:29

Fed cuts in time for what clearly is

53:32

some amount of slowing? Now, we could

53:34

argue over if they're getting the data

53:36

right or not. The Fed says they look at

53:37

all data, not just this data. They say

53:39

they look at the private data as well.

53:41

But what are your thoughts here, Sachs?

53:43

>> Well, we had 22,000 jobs added in

53:46

August. And yet, while the number of

53:48

jobs went up, unemployment rose, like

53:50

you said, from 4.2 to 4.3%.

53:53

Which is a little bit of a

53:54

contradiction, but that happened because

53:56

more people started looking for jobs.

53:59

>> Yeah.

53:59

>> But there are huge error bars around

54:01

this data. Like Jamal said, I mean, like

54:04

you showed, there's roughly 50%

54:06

revisions to all of this data over time

54:10

over the course of a year. So, we don't

54:12

really have great visibility in what's

54:13

going on. And that's why you see such

54:15

huge disparities in how people are

54:17

interpreting this data. So if you want

54:19

to look at some of the people who are

54:20

pessimistic, you've got coobe letter,

54:23

but they're pessimistic about

54:24

everything. You've got Moody's economist

54:26

Mark Xandandy. He says we're on the

54:28

precipice of a recession and he has a

54:30

bunch of reasons why. But then if you

54:32

look at Poly Market, people on Poly

54:34

Market are strongly betting against a

54:37

recession this year. I think the number

54:39

is at about 8%. So, it appears that most

54:42

people still feel like the economy is

54:43

doing well. And remember, we just had a

54:45

3.3%

54:47

GDP growth rate for Q2. So, I I'd be

54:51

surprised if if there's a recession. I

54:53

think there's a lot of factors against

54:55

it. I guess I would also note that if

54:58

there's any weakness in the job numbers,

54:59

it's coming from foreignb born workers

55:02

more than native born workers. Around 2

55:04

million more Americanborn workers have

55:07

jobs in 2025 so far. And I think

55:11

meanwhile about a million foreignb born

55:14

workers roughly have lost jobs. So the

55:16

net increase is about a million. But

55:18

what you're seeing is a repatriation in

55:21

a way of jobs within the economy. The

55:25

other thing that's happening is a

55:27

reprivatization of the economy. So in

55:29

August the federal government shed about

55:31

15,000 jobs and there's been 100,000

55:34

federal jobs lost over the course of the

55:38

whole year. So that makes the overall

55:40

numbers look worse than they are. But I

55:41

a lot of us would argue that having

55:42

fewer federal workers is a good thing

55:44

for the economy. So you've got those

55:46

factors. Then you've got blue collar

55:48

real wages are rising the second fastest

55:51

in history. You had 3.7% wage growth

55:54

this year versus 2.7% average inflation.

55:57

So you have a net 1% wage growth during

56:00

most of the Biden presidency. It was

56:02

negative.

56:04

And then I would also point to I think

56:07

several factors which would make me

56:09

optimistic about the economy moving

56:11

ahead. You've had massive investment in

56:14

the US by both private companies and

56:16

foreign governments. You know, according

56:17

to these new trade deals, I think

56:19

roughly $8 trillion of new investment.

56:22

You've got this AI boom you're seeing.

56:23

>> And that's going to land over the next

56:25

year, right? That hasn't actually been

56:26

dumped in. So we should see that in

56:29

2027,

56:30

maybe late 2026. Yeah.

56:32

>> Yeah. This is the outlook for 2026 and

56:34

beyond. I mean, this would be the bull

56:36

case is number one, $8 trillion of of

56:38

new investment in the US economy by

56:40

private companies and by foreign

56:42

governments. Number two, the AI boom.

56:45

You've got this massive buildout of data

56:46

centers and AI infrastructure underway.

56:49

And that includes energy and the

56:50

manufacturing sectors are going to boom

56:52

alongside tech. Number three, this has

56:55

been the most affordable summer at the

56:57

pump since 2021,

56:59

and low gas prices don't seem to be

57:01

going anywhere anytime soon. So, lowest

57:03

gas prices since 2021. Number four, you

57:06

have these huge new tax incentives for

57:08

business expansion. You've got the

57:10

accelerated depreciation on equipment

57:12

purchases, on R&D. I think those are

57:15

going to kick in once the big beautiful

57:17

bill goes into effect. And then the last

57:19

thing I would say is that interest rate

57:21

cuts are coming. I would say that now in

57:23

light of the latest jobs report, Pal

57:26

should really cut 50 basis points. I

57:28

doubt he will in September 25.

57:31

>> Yeah, I doubt he will. It's probably be

57:32

25 and then hopefully another 25. But I

57:35

think you can make the case that they

57:36

should do 50 now and then 25 after that.

57:39

But regardless of what it is, I think

57:40

that most people think interest rates

57:42

are coming and that's going to juice the

57:44

economy and further improve our fiscal

57:45

position. So look for 26, I think

57:48

there's a lot of bullish factors here.

57:51

All right, just before we wrap here,

57:53

Google, uh, as we know, was found liable

57:55

in this antitrust case, but the

57:58

sanctions seem to not be as harsh as

58:02

people thought they would be. Judge Meta

58:05

rejected the request that Google have to

58:09

spin off Chrome, Android,

58:11

and pointed out that Google is uh having

58:15

massive competition. So we had four

58:17

years of Lena Khan, you know, in these

58:19

aggressive cases. There were there were

58:21

tactical things we talked about here

58:22

like uh dark patterns, etc. that we all

58:24

agreed with. I think there was consensus

58:26

there, but this one we found a little

58:28

confusing because gosh, Google's under

58:31

so much pressure. What are your thoughts

58:32

on I thought this was

58:35

>> excellent.

58:37

>> Unpack it all. Essentially, the crux of

58:40

the ruling was look, there are some

58:42

restrictions that Google has to live by.

58:44

don't get me wrong, but the most

58:46

punitive remedies that were suggested

58:48

were thrown out. And the reason they

58:50

were thrown out was because the judge

58:52

very eloquently cited competition in a

58:56

fair and free and open market. And that

58:59

is incredibly refreshing because the

59:01

real question is would this judge have

59:03

had the wherewithal and the courage to

59:05

actually be able to rule this way

59:08

a few years ago when there would have

59:11

been an enormous amount of political

59:14

pressure. They probably would have found

59:15

a way to to run this case in a in a

59:17

different place etc etc. But now what

59:19

you saw was just very simple logic

59:22

intervene. And at the core of it was,

59:25

you know, when we started this lawsuit,

59:26

things like OpenAI and Chat GPT didn't

59:29

exist. And when you fast forward, it's

59:31

incredibly fastm moving. We are

59:33

reallocating hundreds of millions or

59:35

billions of users intentions. As a

59:38

byproduct, we're reallocating tens of

59:41

maybe hundreds of billions of dollars of

59:43

revenue. And so the judge said the most

59:45

severe remedies aren't necessary because

59:47

the free market is doing its job.

59:48

>> Yes.

59:49

>> So I I just think that's incredibly

59:51

refreshing because we forget

59:53

>> that if the market is left to deal with

59:56

these issues on its own, they do a very

59:59

good job of cleaning things up. And it's

60:01

because as you said earlier, Jason,

60:04

consumers want creative destruction.

60:06

They want the next best thing. They want

60:08

to be

60:08

>> better prices better services. It's it

60:10

happens by the free market. They're

60:11

willing they're willing to reward better

60:13

companies and better products. So I

60:14

think the the great news for Google is

60:16

that this takes an enormous

60:20

risk off the table. And now I think that

60:24

they probably have even more

60:27

ambition and energy to just go for it

60:29

and try to compete because they're not

60:30

going to be worried about everybody on

60:33

the outside and probably some percentage

60:35

of employees on the inside who are

60:36

always trying to slow things down.

60:38

>> Yeah. and and it out correctly and I'll

60:41

let you comment on this Sachs is that

60:43

they did get some tactical,

60:46

>> you know, penalties here. Uh, and they

60:48

make sense doing deals that are

60:51

exclusive when you are a Monopoly

60:53

player, like getting Firefox and Apple

60:57

to only do an exclusive deal with you.

61:00

They're not going to be allowed to do

61:01

that. And man, that would change the

61:03

game on the field if somebody like

61:05

Duck.Go or Bing or a new entrant,

61:07

Proplexity, whoever who's doing search

61:09

would be able to say to Apple, we will

61:11

outbid Google for 10% of the searches.

61:13

We'd like to buy 5% of the searches from

61:15

the Safari browser going to Firefox and

61:18

saying, "Hey, we'd like to one up and

61:20

we'd like some percentage of that." So,

61:22

that seemed like a good part of the

61:23

ruling. Your thoughts overall about

61:25

this? So on this podcast, I think it was

61:28

two or three years ago when this case

61:29

first came up. I think I took the

61:31

position that Google Street broken up

61:33

into two or three companies because I

61:35

thought it was this invulnerable

61:37

monopoly and I don't think monopolies

61:38

are great for the SAR ecosystem. And

61:41

what I mean by that is they had the

61:43

Google search monopoly and that YouTube

61:45

business which is basically a monopoly

61:46

and so forth and so on. So, I I was in

61:48

favor of breaking this up, but I've got

61:50

to admit I was wrong about that for the

61:52

reasons that the judge said, which is

61:54

Google for the first time in a long

61:56

while, is existentially threatened by

61:59

what's happened with AI. I mean, their

62:00

cash cow, the core of their business is

62:02

search, and people are starting to

62:04

substitute in droves from traditional

62:08

Google search, which they own, or

62:10

keyword search, where they have this

62:11

monopoly or dominant share to AI. And if

62:16

you look at AI revenue, I think

62:18

something like 90% of it is going to

62:22

open AI. I mean, they have the dominant

62:24

position among consumers

62:26

>> for now for now. And there's, let's say,

62:29

five major AI companies that are hot on

62:31

their heels and very competitive

62:33

>> and performing equally if not better on

62:35

performance benchmarks. So the point is

62:37

just I think everyone can now see that

62:40

the search business is either going away

62:43

or transforming into something else

62:45

which is it's basically merging with the

62:47

it's called AI chatbot business.

62:49

>> It's an answers business now. It's not a

62:51

like give me links. It's just give me

62:53

the damn answer,

62:54

>> right? And we've been talking about this

62:55

for a while where it's so obvious that

62:58

having AI just give you the answer is

63:00

better than 20 blue links. especially as

63:03

the quality improves and it gets better

63:05

at synthesizing those 20 blue links into

63:08

the exact right answer and the speed

63:10

improves. One of the things that

63:11

Google's really good at is just fast

63:13

responses. You they've always shown you

63:15

in milliseconds how long it takes to

63:17

give you the search result. And

63:18

obviously if you're looking for

63:20

something quick and an AI chatbot's

63:22

going to take 30 seconds, you're going

63:23

to go with Google. But that's going to

63:25

get better, too. So I think Google is

63:28

kind of in the fight of its life right

63:29

now. And I think this is why Sergey's

63:31

come back. You know, we saw him at the

63:34

>> at the dinner at the White House

63:35

yesterday and he said he's very involved

63:37

in Google Deep Mind.

63:38

>> He's going to the office all the time.

63:40

Yeah.

63:40

>> Right. And so you're seeing that founder

63:42

involvement again because they know that

63:44

they've got a real existential threat to

63:46

their business. And this is the argument

63:49

that opponents of strong antitrust

63:52

enforcement have always made, which is

63:54

that the free market will eventually

63:56

break up, even the strongest monopolies,

63:58

if you just give it the chance to do it.

64:00

And that's what appears to be in motion

64:02

right now. By the way, I'm not saying

64:04

that Google's going to get destroyed.

64:06

I'm not saying it's going away. I'm just

64:08

saying that they have to pivot here in a

64:10

big way. their business is being

64:11

disrupted and they suddenly have

64:13

competition I think in their core

64:15

business like they've never had before.

64:17

So I do think that we don't need to

64:19

bring the hammer down on them in the

64:22

same way that maybe we did a few years

64:23

ago. I still would not let them pursue

64:26

anti-competitive tactics against say

64:29

applications in the Android store where

64:31

they basically have a duopoly. So I'm

64:33

not saying I would let them do anything

64:35

but I certainly agree with this judge

64:37

that we don't need to break up that

64:38

company right now.

64:39

>> Yeah. Yeah. And there's there's rules in

64:41

the field that need to be adjudicated.

64:44

So having a very simple approach with

64:46

the FTC of saying, "Hey, these exclusive

64:48

deals when you have 90% market share,

64:50

that's not allowable. But you can

64:52

compete and you can fight versus the

64:54

five new entrance and uh have at it and

64:57

and give consumers a better product at a

64:59

cheaper price." That's really the goal

65:01

of the FTC is to to have some basic

65:03

rules of the field. We saw it in the

65:05

media business as well. We spend a

65:07

decade or two trying to fight the

65:09

consolidation of media companies and

65:11

then Netflix has trounced them all and

65:13

YouTube as well in terms of viewership.

65:16

Netflix and YouTube are crushing the

65:18

cable monopolies that we spend all this

65:20

time trying to regulate. All right

65:22

everybody, there's your episode. We have

65:24

to get back to work and get to Los

65:26

Angeles for the amazing fourth edition

65:29

of the Allin Summit. It's going to be

65:32

amazing and all the great content

65:33

including some surprise speakers that'll

65:36

be released over the next week or two

65:38

after the event. So, you're going to get

65:40

massive amounts of content. Make sure

65:42

you go to the YouTube channel,

65:44

subscribe, and click that bell so you

65:46

get alerts. Go to allin.com, put your

65:48

email in. We'll invite you to more

65:50

events. Chamath and I might be doing

65:51

something in the poker space. That could

65:54

be a lot of fun. My guy TK and I, we

65:56

might be doing a little back gammon uh

65:58

tournament. All right, everybody. Thanks

66:01

for tuning in to the All-In podcast.

66:02

We're finished. Bye-bye, besties. Love

66:04

you. Love you guys.

66:07

>> Let your winners ride.

66:10

[Music]

66:14

>> We open sourced it to the fans and

66:16

they've just gone crazy with it. Love

66:18

you.

66:21

[Music]

66:26

>> Besties are gone.

66:29

>> That is my dog taking a notice in your

66:31

driveway.

66:34

>> Oh man, my dasher will meet.

66:37

>> We should all just get a room and just

66:38

have like one big huge orgy cuz they're

66:40

all just useless. It's like this like

66:42

sexual tension that they just need to

66:43

release somehow.

66:47

Wet your feet.

66:50

>> We need to get merch.

66:54

[Music]

67:00

>> I'm going all in.

Interactive Summary

The podcast hosts discuss a recent tech-focused dinner held at the White House with President Trump, detailing the logistical arrangements, the atmosphere of cooperation among tech industry leaders, and their support for the current administration's business-friendly agenda. The conversation also covers the impact of recent tariffs, the legal challenges surrounding them, and whether they serve as a strategic revenue tool or an inflationary risk. Additionally, the group addresses the current state of the job market, debating the reliability of government data versus private indicators, and concludes with a discussion on the recent antitrust ruling involving Google, agreeing that market competition has become a more effective regulator than government intervention.

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