Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
1879 segments
All right, Saxs, how you doing, brother?
Wait, wait, what's this? Why are you
wearing a tie?
>> I'm in DC today, so it's a it's a
government day.
>> Ah, so you suited up with the ties. You
suited up with ties. Well, maybe I'll
join you. Maybe I'll join you. Oh, look.
Oh, look. What is this box I just got?
Oh, that's for my guy Tom. Oh, just for
JCAL, Mr. Jason Calakas. Let's see
what's in the box here.
>> Oh, what's going on here?
>> Tom Ford sent you something.
>> Oh, Tom sent me a nice tie. And you
don't go
>> I uh I heard that Moose ate your
invitation to the White House.
>> He did. He did.
>> Sorry about that.
>> Sorry about that.
[Music]
>> Let your winners ride.
>> Rainman David.
>> We open sources to the fans and they've
just gone crazy with it.
>> All right, everybody. Welcome back to
the number one podcast in the universe
in the universe. It's been proven time
and time again. Oh, this I'm not putting
the tie up. Ah, it. It's just It's
enough already. I I guess Friday. We We
moved the show to Friday. Sorry you're
getting this on Saturday.
>> You can't come to the White House. You
can't figure out a tie.
>> Yeah. Well, maybe you could show me how
to do this next time I'm in town. I got
to practice with you. We'll go in the
mirror. You could. That'd be great. Bit
you behind me. Show me how to do a tie.
We didn't have ties in Brooklyn. What do
you want me to do? All right. Well, it
was an eventful week. Some of our
besties,
some, not all, were invited apparently
to a uh a little suare at the White
House with the president, Saxs and Cham.
Here's a photo. Some pretty good seeing
arrangement here. Looks like Zuckerberg
got the pole position on the right hand
of the father followed by Saxi Pooh and
Chimath and Amo sitting right across
from Sam Alman and Tim Cook. What a
crowd. What a crowd. What was the um
what was the uh impetus for this dinner?
Sachs, tell us.
>> Well, this was a tech dinner at the
White House. I think it originally
started with a group that Chimath
organized in Silicon Valley and they
were kind of the core nucleus of this
and then more and more people just
wanted to come and try to get in and the
president invited some of the top tech
leaders and pretty soon it turned into
the room that you saw there. I mean it's
really pretty amazing President Trump's
ability to convene all these people. You
normally don't get these people in a
room together. Many of them are
competitors and it's remarkable. You
pretty much had I'd say like maybe half
the tech industry was there
>> by market cap. Certainly.
>> By market cap for sure.
>> Yeah. And uh Chimath, you obviously were
involved here and you got a pretty good
seat. Any uh great inside stories? Any
inside baseball? What did they serve? By
the way, I'm curious what gets served at
a dinner like this.
>> That was a very elegant menu.
And they they try to keep it light so
that it's not overwhelming, which I
think can get in the way. So it was like
>> So no prime rib, right? There was a
barata salad and then there was a a
fillet and then a nice raspberry
dessert.
>> Okay,
>> here's what I'll tell you. Sax said it
well. What was incredible
for me just to frankly be in the room
felt very surreal. You're seeing the
leaders of the most important companies
in the world sitting together
and I just felt like there was a sense
of alignment and cooperation and that
was really cool. I think none of those
folks have to really show up anywhere
that they don't have to. I think they're
at a place in their career and the
importance of the businesses that they
run. But the fact that the president can
convene them, I think says a lot about
him and the agenda. And then they to a
one were incredibly supportive of what
he has done and clearing the way and
allowing them to build their businesses
with a lot more clarity. It was just
very clear the juxtaposition of what it
was like and the difficulty under Biden
versus what it was now. And you saw some
very truly hard cast liberals who have
now completely embraced President Trump.
Folks like Tim Cook, folks like Bill
Gates. And I think that that's an
incredible testament to him and his
agenda. And then the second thing, which
is more personal, is I was so proud of
Sachs. Every single one of these guys,
and you're talking like the Titans of
Titans, they took a moment to say that
he was just doing an incredible job and
the president was really proud of it. It
was like as a brother. It's like you're
seeing your brother just get completely
It was It was great. So, that was really
special. Freeberg, any any take on this?
I I noticed you didn't make it. You
didn't make the cut. My invite got eaten
by moose obviously as we heard earlier,
but uh I thought you for sure would get
a seat. What happened for you? bring no
seat for you.
>> I work in agriculture, Jay Cal. So,
we're doing the agriculture dinner next
month. It's going to be great. The
president and I are arranging a round
table. It's going to be fantastic. Yeah,
just kidding.
>> No, but I was in DC.
>> So, if I eat my vegetables, I can come
to them.
>> No, no, I was in DC with the guys. I
actually did an interview with Senator
Rand Paul, which you'll which I think is
out on YouTube now and on our podcast
channels. It was great to sit down with
the Senator.
>> What was the highlight of the uh of the
the Paul interview? I didn't get to
watch it yet. Apologies. as I was
getting ready for the summit. But did
you have a highlight or two you want to
share with us?
>> I mean he he's an interesting guy. A lot
of people have challenged him because
he's an independent thinker. He really
is true kind of libertarian views and
libertarian beliefs and he's held firm
to them despite bucking with the party
which he did recently on the big
beautiful bill. You know he was one of
three Republicans to vote against it. So
he's criticized and chastised and, you
know, ousted in a lot of different
circles in DC because he doesn't kind of
fall in line. But I do think that
dissent and debate is critical and
important for us to find the better path
forward. And I I like the role that he
plays. And I think he's very first
principled. And I think his talking
about his ability to get elected despite
not being willing to always fall in line
with the party is a really important
point. and he hopes it will inspire
other politicians to follow the same
path and for voters to see that there is
a role for independent thinkers in
Congress.
>> Yeah, I mean that is something we need.
It seems like these parties just get
locked step. They're expected to vote
the same. They're vote on party lines
and sachs that is definitely a weakness
I think of the two-party system. your
thoughts on uh Ran Paul and his you know
being a bit of an agitator maybe like
Mansion was that there's a role for
this. Yeah. In our democracy.
>> Well, I think it's good to hear from a
libertarian voice once in a while
they're going to have a different sort
of conservative
>> once in a while. I caught that too.
>> They're going to have a different sort
of viewpoint that could be called
conservative. So, I like grandp. But can
we just go back to the the dinner? I
want to just yeah
>> build on a point that Chimath made about
the level of sort of comey in in the
room.
>> I think that the the people in the room
there it was remarkable even though a
lot of these companies are competing
with each other they were largely on the
same page with respect to what was
happening in the economy and the world
and with the kind of support they needed
for the tech industry to do well and for
the US economy to do well. And I think
the reason why they were largely happy
with the Trump administration is because
the Trump administration has been pro-
innovation, pro- infrastructure, which
includes being pro- energy, pro- export,
so these companies can sell their
products internationally. And then also
the thing that's been very important to
the Trump administration is proworker.
And you heard the president make all of
those points in his
critical AI speech that he gave on July
23rd at the AI summit that we
co-sponsored with Hill and Valley. So I
think a lot of the compliments that we
received were due to the agenda that the
president articulated so well at the AI
summit and the people in that room are
largely supportive of that policy. So, I
don't know if I would call it a love
fest, but I think it was an opportunity
for these tech leaders to articulate
their concerns where they could use
help. And I think the president, he's a
great listener, and he wanted to take in
their feedback and figure out how to
make the economy grow even faster.
>> I had so many questions from, you know,
behind the scenes, etc., like seating
arrangement, how's that discussed? The
first thing I'll say is the president
takes tremendous
control over these details. So I've said
this before about how conscientious he
is, but one of the things that he
noticed before was it was very difficult
to host press conferences or world
leaders outside in the Rose Garden. So
the way that it started was around 4:00
what happened was that David, and I'll
tell you because there was a joke about
this at dinner. David asked the
president, "Can we do a tour of the Oval
for all of the fans of Allin?" And the
president said, "Absolutely." So me,
Freeberg,
Sachs,
>> we went and Caroline Levit meets us and
walks us in. By the way, if you want to
see a star of stars,
like I've I've met few people like this
who exudes this level of competence. I
mean, I think it was the first thing
that Freeberg said after maybe like two
minutes of interacting with her. It's
like, "Wow, this may be the most
competent person I've ever spoken to.
She's outrageously good." So, she gets
us all, she cleans up some stuff that
had to be cleaned up, walks us in, and
the president gave us this tour. And the
beautiful thing about the tour, if you
are a student of American history, is
the history is on the walls. I mean from
George Washington to Abe Lincoln to even
Ben Franklin and the Declaration of
Independence Jason. And so we were able
to see all of that and and see all of
that in detail and he was able to talk
about it and then
>> as it kind of always does it veers where
you know he does the weave and he's like
guys what do we want to talk about and
free was able to ask some questions and
saxs and I and then it just became a
little bit more freewheeling like
>> well it turned into like a hang
>> a hang. Yeah. We we hung with the
president and then after we hung we
turned the cameras off and then we hung
like another half hour 45 minutes with
him. People are coming in the oval
but it's literally like an episode of
West Wing meets VEP meets like you know
it was like everyone's just chatting
going in and out. You meet all the
characters.
>> So then that ends and Sax had to do some
meetings in the oval with the president.
So we all leave and we're escorted into
>> I think it's the Roosevelt room. Sax, is
that right? Is that So when we get into
the Roosevelt room, this is where it
becomes surreal.
>> You're seeing the most powerful
people that have built these incredible
businesses. I think there's 30 people,
but the table can only fit like 15
people. And so you have like Tim and Sam
and Satia sitting on the couch over here
by these two chairs just like Dylan
Field and Alan Wag. And it's like the
funniest scene because everybody at that
moment all the ears are gone because
they know the context in which they're
they're there.
>> Yeah. In their own worlds, they're like
kings. But in the White House, you're
back.
>> You're sharing the backbench.
>> You're an American citizen who's there
to meet the president, right? But there
were some incredible people there. Some
people I I'd not really met before.
Safatz, lovely, and her husband. And
then there were some other people that
were just amazing. Jared Isaacman, which
is wonderful to see him. There was a
whole group of folks that were there.
And then
they say, "Hey guys, can you just get
into a single file line?" And so again,
it's like a it's like a surreal scene
where it's like Sundar Satya, Bill
Gates, survey
these people in a single file line.
>> I mean, you guys sound like you went
backstage at a Zeppelin concert.
Incredible.
>> No, dude. And then we're we're escorted
into the oval and this is like what's so
kind about what he does. He sits at the
at the Resolute desk and Mirith Or who's
incredible, she introduces everybody one
by one so that they hear their name. I
don't I it may sound like a a weird
thing, Jason, but like to hear your name
called
>> in the oval and then you stand beside
the president. He's seated and they have
a photo. They take this beautiful photo
and then the first person was Saffra and
her husband and her husband says, "Could
I take a pen?" I swear. So the president
says, "Of course, that's what they're
there for." So he gives him a challenge
coin and a pen.
Everybody takes one. So again, you're
seeing the leaders of these incredible
businesses. One by one, they get
announced. They go stand by the
president. They take a beautiful picture
and they take a coin and a pen. And then
we're all just kind of milling in the
oval after that's all done. And he says,
"Well, guys, we're going to talk at
dinner, but do you want to just start?"
And it was amazing because Sergey,
>> does he sit behind the desk then?
>> He's still sitting at the he's still
sitting. So anyways, Sergey asks a few
questions, really starts to get the
conversation going, which I which I
think was really good. And then he says,
"Okay guys, let's continue this
conversation at dinner." And so we exit
into the rose garden and this is where
our friend Sunonny Madro says on the way
like as we're walking says sir I hear
you have a playlist. Can we hear the
music? And so he takes the iPad turns
the music on and he apparently had been
tuning it and so now it's like he's got
a great playlist by the way. It's like
Fleetwood Mac. I mean like you're
hearing like all the classics and it's
just blasting in the Rose. I mean
blasting. Lisa Sue posted one of the
photos. You can see them all because
like the oval is small. Okay. So, just
to be clear. So, then
>> that's dinner.
>> Oh, wow. There you go.
>> It's stuffed. I mean, I'm right to the
left of Tim and Jamie Simmonoff is right
at the end. I And I think it's VC Rana
Dbe who's the owner of the Kings is
right there of the Sacramento Kings
started typical and then I think it's
me. I think I was standing kind of more
in the front there. Anyways, so we
leave. So, so if you just pause there.
So that window that's Sham Sankar who's
the CTO of Palanteer and behind him is
Dave Limp and then you can see Dylan
Field the founder and CEO of Figma.
That's the door you exit. You go into
the Rose Garden and then you walk
through and we walk down the hallway.
You guys have seen that before. And we
go into the to the east wing and they
say want to introduce the first lady.
So what happens is you walk into the
east wing, you walk upstairs and there's
a very elegant seating chart that they
make. It's actually a really good way of
doing it because normally what you would
do is you would walk around the table.
>> Yeah.
>> No, this is a much better system. So you
actually have a small model of the table
and so what happens is you go you you
can see where everybody is sitting and
then you see where you're sitting and
then there's an escort that takes you to
your seat. So, it's a really it's it's
done really well. I mean, for
>> it's very thoughtful. Yeah,
>> it's very thoughtful.
>> It was in the East Room where we also
did the crypto summit at the White House
and there's been other events there. But
let me just give a shout out to the
first lady, Melania Trump. She's very
interested in this topic of AI. And in
fact, earlier that day, we did an event
at the White House with the AI education
task force, which she's chairing. and
she's very passionate about making sure
that every school child in America has
access to AI so they can get AI
education. And we had dozens of
companies there at the White House
making pledges of resources to make sure
that teachers and students and families
will be able to have everything they
need for kids to learn AI so they have
the skills for this critical tool. So
this is a topic she's very interested
in. So she wanted to be at that dinner.
So then we get seated and people are
talking a little bit and he goes, "Guys,
if it's okay with you, we're just going
to let the press in." And I thought what
that meant was a few people, I mean,
I've never seen anything like this
before. It It's like a zoo entered
>> the East Wing like cameras, boom,
microphones.
>> Oh, the gaggle.
>> The gaggle. They start screaming because
like everybody's trying to shout over
each other to try to be able to ask
questions. But then, you know, the
president kind of imposes control and
says, "Guys, hold on." And then he
allowed the CEOs of the of the big
companies to say something and then
Gates said something
and then that kind of set the tone and
obviously he said something and then he
said, "Anybody have any questions?" And
then they just start screaming. I mean,
and there are people running around with
mics. I don't know
how you pick who gets to say something
quite honestly because the question
procedure it's out of control.
>> No, but but you know what's crazy is the
questions are so all over the place. I
don't know how you can be prepared like
he knows what he's saying. He's very
purposeful with what he's saying. I
don't know how you do that because the
questions are all over the place and you
could tell like cuz one of them asked
Zuck questions. Zuck was like what's
going on Zuck? Zuck Zuck what about your
12 houses in Palo Alto Zuck?
I mean, no, it was a tougher question.
>> What was that? I
>> It was about free speech and the UK and
he did a pretty good job.
>> Zach, my Instagram account's locked. Can
you help me? My Instagram.
>> Anyway, so then so then they leave and
then
>> Well, by the way, they have to be like
thrown out, you know. They don't just
leave. They're out of control. They make
coral, you know.
>> Yeah. And then we had this lovely three
course dinner and then right after the
appetizer, I think like he starts going
around and people just start talking and
saying things and things that are on
their mind. And I'm I'm not going to
share anything from that from that. But
I thought I thought that was pretty
illuminating and pretty awesome.
>> Let me ask you a candid question.
>> And challenge him on any topics. Were
there any I mean we saw there's a lot of
agilation. People thank you Mr.
President. There's a lot of difference.
Anybody throw him a fastball, curveball?
Was there any challenging question in
that format?
>> It's not about asking him questions like
you're interviewing him. But there are
people that brought up challenging
things that they are dealing with.
>> Yeah, that's what I mean.
>> But that No, that is not what you said.
So,
>> no, no, it's something that maybe is not
aligned with maybe how the
administration is doing things. That's
what I'm sort of getting at.
>> Okay. No, but that's again you're trying
to like Nobody's there to gotcha. People
are like, "Sir, I'm dealing with this
specific issue in this specific country.
Can you help?"
>> Ah, got it. Well, I was thinking like
immigration, high skilled in
immigration. That seems like a topic
everybody cares about in our industry.
I'll
>> tell you what we talked about. The
issues that they had are many and they
have to deal with how American companies
can build businesses in a seamless,
straightforward way. And what they said
is since Biden, what Trump has done is
clean the decks and allowed them. They
all said that. They didn't they weren't
forced to say that. They all said it,
which I thought was really cool. This is
again why I said earlier, super proud of
what David has done. Like it was
palpable the respect that all these guys
had for him, which is awesome. But then
what the president says is, I could take
care of this. I can do that. That's not
going to stand. He's like what you see
is you have these American titans of
industry. I've said this before, Jason.
The whole premise of the American dream,
I think, rests on economic and military
supremacy. That is derived from
technical supremacy.
That group of people are
the geniuses that create the technical
supremacy for the world. And he is their
biggest advocate. And that's inspiring
because it's like they are like sir
here's what we need and he's like great
I'm going to go to that for you and try
to get what you need. And so there was
that conversation and then there was a
joke and he said at the end something to
along the lines of ah you know I had to
it's a tough day or something like I had
to I had to film a segment for David's
dumb podcast. Just said it like as a
joke. So everybody everybody everybody
starts laughing
>> and then Zuck piles on. He goes, "Well,
the only dumb parts are Chimat's parts
and
everybody else starts laughing." But
when Zuck said it, he's leaning back.
>> And then he loses his balance.
>> Sax Saxs with the tism is just looking
straight ahead at Timco.
>> I I am like I don't know what to do. Nat
caught Zuck. Nat pulls her arm. I don't
know how she got there. It was a really
sweet moment. And then
>> I had a favorite moment actually. It
occurred after you guys left the White
House. Here it is. This is Chimat's
greatest moment.
>> There is a Chimat super fan. As you can
see there,
>> that's a Chimat super fan. And he's
signing multiple pictures from all
different eras. Those will be on eBay
later.
>> Look at this guy. I just want to back up
and say one of the reasons why I thought
it would be cool for us to kind of do
this interview in the Oval where the
president kind of gave us a tour of the
changes he had made to the White House
is I was getting a tour with my family
one weekend of the White House and the
guides who do these tours were telling
us about how much care the president
takes in the condition of the White
House and all the upgrades that he's
made. And they've seen him walking
around and he'll pick out paintings and
art. they'll move things around. He got
a whole bunch of paintings out of
storage. All the paintings that are now
in the Oval Office are ones that he
directly picked out. And they also said
that when he sees something wrong, like
with the landscaping or, you know, he'll
call a gardener over and give him notes
on how to make it look better. And the
president himself posted a truth a few
days ago where the new pavers on the
Rose Garden patio got damaged. There was
like a big scratch and see that video.
He caught them online. He caught the He
caught he caught the delivery guys.
>> He went to the tape to figure out who
did it. Yeah.
>> Yeah. That's That's a New York
developer. And not only that, he fired
them and he's making them pay for it and
they got to buff it or something. Yeah.
>> It's funny. He told us the story at the
dinner that the the contractor who got
fired was devastated. So, he's probably
going to have to hire them back cuz, you
know, he's
>> he's too nice. And
>> he asked everybody. He's like, "Do you
guys think I should hire him back?"
We're like, "Yes, I heard the guy." He's
like, "I'll probably hire him back."
>> It started as a tour. It was supposed to
be a tour. We were going to see the Rose
Garden and other things. And then it
rained and so we just stayed in the oval
and then it became like more of like a
hang.
>> Oh, wow. You guys are going to make that
into an episode. That's going to be an
episode. Oh, that's incredible.
>> Okay. So, Jason, like look, you see the
couple days before and the president
tweeted about this, Nick. I sent that to
you. You have India, Russia and China
kind of like fratinizing and then one or
two days later the president convenes
this dinner of I think you know some
incredible entrepreneurs building a lot
of the really important things that the
world needs in the future. I don't know
what your reaction is when you see the
kind of like
>> I mean yeah there's a legion of doom
there the uh Putin and she and uh not
Modi maybe but he he's obviously making
a point but you know overall I had a lot
of thoughts about it. But I did a I did
a press hit.
Of the 20 people there or so, I'm not
sure what the exact number was. I'm just
eyeballing it here.
>> I think we're at 2930.
>> I think about 19 of them are lifelong
Democrats who have switched to this
party. And and I I think the Democrats
need to look at this. This opportunity
was always there for the Democrats. But
what did they choose? They chose to take
the position of ban the billionaires and
an agenda that makes no sense. And if
you had invited this group of people, if
you were Biden or Kamla and you invited
this group of people to come to the
White House, they would have come as
well and you could have a really
thoughtful conversation about them. What
the Democratic positions might be, you
know, wages, healthcare, and and this
same group of people would have engaged,
but they were not allowed to access the
White House. They were not allowed to
have a dialogue. And I think they
pursued, you know, very weird agenda.
And you got Nancy Pelosi out there day
trading. got AOC and the socialists, you
know, pursuing some crazy agenda. What
do you expect people to do if you tell
them we don't want to hear your
concerns? We don't want to engage with
you in debate. You can have all kinds of
differences with Trump on style. I do.
You could have policy issues. I do. But
as a moderate, when I see something like
this, I just got to give, you know, you
a lot of credit, Saxs, for being able to
give access to the president and give
the president access to these
individuals and let an all these
important discussions happen and then
the group can act as one in the American
people's interest. And I think it's very
important for the Democrats to learn
something here, which is 90% of
Americans aspire to be billionaires. and
10% maybe they're you know socialists
moon communists whatever they are it's
fine they can pick and choose what they
believe is important in the world but
Americans love these individuals they
love these products and services and 70%
of the top 50 companies in the world by
market cap are American companies this
is the best of America this is the best
of the American dream and it's great
that they can go and have debates with
the president that was you know to my
earlier question like I know a lot of
these guys have some issues with the
president or certain issues tariffs etc.
This is an important I think moment in
time to just say Trump 2.0 I know is
engaging the business community and
meeting them where they are and saying
how can I help you grow faster? How can
we compete? America is not the only game
in town. Now, as you saw with Modi, you
know, creating this alliance with she
and Putin, it's imperative for the
American companies to excel and create
jobs. And we have the lowest
unemployment. We'll talk about
employment today. There's some new
statistics. We have the lowest
unemployment of our lifetimes. It's for
a reason. It's not because of any
president. It's because of these great
companies. We should be celebrating
them. And the president's done an
exceptional job of doing what all
Americans do. We celebrate these
companies. We love the iPhone. We love
Teslas. We We love these products and
services people are building. People
love Google. They love chat GBT. It's
fantastic. And so it's easy to be
cynical,
you know, about business or business
leaders, but uh this was really, I
think, a great show of force and it
shows the country's getting in sync on
what matters and that has it should be
independent of political parties. So I
was very proud of you, David, that you
built this bridge and you built it brick
by brick and I think yet to come. Well,
I mean, just to be clear, I mean,
obviously the president already had
access to all these people and in fact,
many of them were already on speed dial
and he already knew them and he he's the
one who convened them at the White
House. I've just been helping with
policy. So, I don't want to just be
clear about that. Well, I'm not
overstating it, but I'm I'm I'm even
going back six months when you guys held
the fundraiser and then just, you know,
you see like a very close friend of
mine, Mark Pinkis, lifelong Democrat,
has donated, you know, probably eight
figures to the Dems in total over the
years and he got frustrated at a certain
point that he couldn't get his calls
returned or he couldn't have important
discussions. Well, here we are. He was
at that dinner. I think that's a very
important lesson. The Democrats need to
feel moderates, business leaders. They
got their Bob Igor, they got Jamie
Diamond, they got a bunch of people who
could help, you know, build an agenda
that's not lunacy.
>> Yeah. And what I would say is is look,
maybe half the people at the dinner have
actually moved to the center or to the
right relative to where they were. And I
think Mark Pinkis has basically put
himself in that category. So there's
people who have like been red pilling
and moving over to our side. And then
I'd say the other half people in the
room haven't necessarily changed their
politics and they're just there to do
business. They want to have a good
relationship with the government. But
the same is true on the part of the
president. You I saw some conservative
influencers saying, "How can the
president meet with this person or that
person? He's been such an opponent in
the past." I mean, look, the president
is doing business as well. He asks all
the attendees of the dinner, "How much
are you investing in America?" You know,
what do you need to invest more? He
wants to see the infrastructure
investment. Why? Because it benefits all
Americans, not just software companies.
It benefits the construction industry,
the trades, the electricians, the
carpenters, the energy companies,
fracking and so on. So he he's there
representing the interests of the
country and then many of those CEOs are
representing the interests of their
companies and there's a dialogue going
on and it doesn't mean that everyone has
to like suddenly become a Republican or
change their politics. But it's
constructive and this is all in
furtherance of having the US economy
grow better.
>> All right, perfect segue. We got lots to
talk about in terms of the economy. And
uh first story here, Trump's tariffs got
overturned in court. Federal appeals
court ruled 74 that Trump exceeded his
authority when it comes to the Emergency
Economic Powers Act. Okay, we'll get
into the details here. Historically,
Congress was in charge of tariffs, but
under an emergency, a national
emergency, the president can get
involved with tariffs. and they cited
the 47th administration fentinyl crisis
at the borders, Mexico, Canada, China,
etc., and the trade deficits. Well, the
White House got sued by a group
representing small businesses. In May,
two federal courts ruled that he
wrongfully uh invoked the EA and the
White House appealed that. They've now
lost and Trump's tariffs will remain in
effect until October 14th allowing the
Supreme Court to appeal this. These
tariffs have been tremendously unpopular
in the business sector. Uh I think maybe
70 80% of business leaders in a recent
survey sack said that they don't they're
not crazy about them. But they have on
the other side generated over $150
billion in revenue in a couple of short
months. So they could generate trillions
of dollars in the next decade according
to estimates. I guess the question I
have for you Sachs is you guys are
moving uh at the White House there in
this administration, the executive
branch at startup speed, moving fast and
break things is something we talk about
doing in our industry and uh is this
just the natural extension of that? The
president is doing a lot of aggressive
things and sometimes they're going to be
allowed, sometimes they're not. What's
your take? Well, I'm not concerned about
the fate of tariffs at the Supreme
Court, even though it's probably a coin
flip, whether the Supreme Court's going
to allow the tariffs under AIPA,
but there are five different laws under
which the president has the authority to
impose these tariffs. So, there's a
chart here that we can throw up on the
screen. There's section 232, there's
section 2011, section 301, section 122,
section 338. There are at least five
different bases for the president's
authority to impose tariffs. So, at the
end of the day, I think it's actually
quite unlikely that the Supreme Court's
going to force a change in tariff
policy. And I don't think the Supreme
Court sees it as this urgent matter that
requires a a quick resolution. So, I'm
not particularly worried about it. In
terms of the popularity of the tariffs,
my guess is that they're not going to be
reversed in the future by a future
president because I think they actually
are quite popular with the country, with
workers. Among the business elite, it's
more mixed. I'll grant you that. But if
you change the way you ask the question
from are you in favor of these tariffs
to are you in favor of raising 4
trillion in revenue over the next decade
through tariffs to fund a tax cut like
we had in the big beautiful bill then
that might change people's perception of
it. So that's really the question is is
how do you want to raise revenue for the
government? And between big beautiful
bill and the tariffs, what you see is a
substitution from taxing Americans to
taxing foreign companies unless those
foreign companies then make a big
investment in America. So look, there's
no great way to extract revenue from the
private sector. all taxation is is
unfortunate and undesirable and be
better if we didn't have to tax so much.
But the reality is I think that if you
have a choice between taxing American
people or imposing tariffs, I think
tariffs may be the better way to do it.
And I just want to note that the CBO
has now increased their projection of
what tariffs will raise to 4 trillion
over the next decade. So
>> 400 billion a year. It's pretty
significant,
>> right? And initially it started as a
lower number and it completely pays for
the one big beautiful bill.
>> Chimoth, here's the chart. Tar Trump's
tariffs were meant to help
manufacturers. Do manufacturing firms
think they're helping? Has your business
been impacted by higher tariffs this
year? And uh here negative impact 72% of
manufacturers. 3.7% think it helped and
uh 17% said no impact. 7% don't know
yet. Your thoughts on tariffs? are
obviously unpopular with people in
retail manufacturing in those
businesses, but as Axe points out, hey,
maybe the American people like them and
they like the idea of a new revenue
stream. What are your thoughts, Shiman?
>> I think that the tariffs on balance are
a pretty smart master stroke of
strategy. I think that we did not
understand
what the impact of tariffs would be
except for
hypothetical
econ wonk talk.
And so that hypothetical econ wonk talk
basically said that tariffs were always
going to be a disaster. And if you ask
them, well, what is the actual practical
data that you would point to? They
didn't have any. It was just more
hypothesis.
But what is the practical data now? I
think that the United States is going to
book
probably close to half a trillion of of
incremental revenue.
It's actually forced a stabilization in
the dollar,
which I think that people were always
very concerned with. What's going to
happen to the dollar complex? Everybody
always screams like with a like their
hair is on fire.
But the dollar complex has stabilized, I
think, because of tariffs. So, there's
been some real positives. And what Sax
says is right, which is whoever is
president over the next, you know, 5,
10, 15, 20, 30 years, there'll be some
Democrats, there'll be some Republicans.
It's going to be very hard to justify
why you would undo this now because this
source of revenue is going to be an
incredibly important one.
>> Well, and also it's not just the fact
that the revenue is very important. You
rais a great point, which is the US
government's going to become dependent
on that revenue, but also just workers.
I think the tariffs are very popular
with bluecollar workers.
auto workers really like it.
>> Well, here's what I was going to this
the the pie chart that you showed
is not accurate. And the reason it's not
accurate is that the investment cases
that you would underwrite because of
tariffs and the big beautiful bill
haven't happened. So, I'll give you an
example. I am a person that started a
business that is building a factory to
make batteries in my specific example in
Michigan. So to delever away from China
for the battery supply chain and what I
will tell you Jason is after the big
beautiful bill and because of tariffs it
is much easier now for me to underwrite.
Why? Because I have 100% depreciation
across all my capex it's a complete
changer on the IRRa of these projects.
So before where I would have to raise
billions of dollars from outsiders, I
can subsidize a lot more of it
internally because I can actually
underwrite to a better gain because the
the tax savings are so meaningful. Same
thing for this data center that I'm
building in Arizona. So in all of these
cases, I think that a you have this
uptick in revenue because of tariffs on
the short term and b the important thing
is to redo this pie chart in probably a
year. Like for example, our
groundbreaking in Michigan will be in
July of next year for that factory.
It'll be online 2 years after that. The
real story, Jason, of all of this will
be really known in that period. But
right now, what I'll tell you is the
underwriting case for putting a ton of
money into the United States has changed
to the positive because of these
>> because that 100% depreciation.
>> It's a huge deal.
>> Yeah. Whether you're buying plane,
>> yum yum. All in aviation. Freeberg,
here's your poly market. Will tariffs
generate greater than 250 billion? It's
uh peaked at like 30%, it's come back
down to five. Most people are betting.
So, this could be a case of free money
if people want to go get it on poly
market because it has a pretty good
chance of hitting that. But
>> well, the number the number I said,
Jason, is like a yearly run rate. So,
technically, if you just look at the
calendar 25, you you only get a stub of
eight months because it starts April
1st.
>> 8 months, 50k a month, 50 uh billion a
month to get to 400 billion. So they
should be able actually think they're
going to hit that bogey. But Freeberg,
the
reports from people who have been
impacted by tariffs. Obviously these
could become inflationary, but the
people who are being impacted said
they've been eating them to date, but
they're not going to be able to eat them
forever. So it could become
inflationary. What are your thoughts on
the tariff kfluffle here and and the
legal battle over them as well as the
impact it might have on inflation which
is something we do not want to see come
back and we have been teetering just
under that 3% number which then puts the
Fed obviously in difficult position with
their mandate to get to two Freeberg
>> I'll address the legal kurfuffle point
which I think is a good one because I do
think that the great debate that's going
to happen from this presidency
and will likely shape the next set of
presidencies
will be the right for presidents to
declare emergencies to move forward
their legislative agenda
and arguably the tariff
institution by many members of Congress
should have gone through a congressional
process. In the meeting I did with Ran
Paul this week which has now been
posted, he talked about the challenge
that they have had with Democratic
presidents Biden and prior to that using
emergency authorization vested to them
under the National Emergencies Act which
is a 1976 statutory authority to take
action and then in order for the
emergency powers to be turned off,
Congress actually has to vote and they
can only do so after 30 days. And when
Congress makes that vote, the president
can veto their vote. So the president
can then say, "Send it back." So then
they have to get a two-third
supermajority to get it to pass. So it
creates a system whereby the president
can have this emergency authorization to
progress much of their legislative
agenda under the guise of emergency
powers, which you know, for many people
they would say is not the right way to
do it. So, Senator Paul and others have
proposed bills, for example, that the
president has to get any emergency power
reauthorized after 30 days
and then it can only be a maximum of 90
days without Congress enacting a a
renewal. And so, it requires actual
congressional action to continue the
authority of that emergency power
depending on what the Supreme Court does
or doesn't do. I think it is going to
catalyze a legislative push and the
Republicans are likely not going to
embrace it this presidency or this term
because President Trump is in office.
But I think the conversation that some,
you know, out of the box Republicans
like Senator Paul and others are saying
is, well, what's going to happen next
time? What's going to happen when
there's a Democrat president and we
don't
>> AOC is going to emergency powers to do
something you might not like, right? Is
that your point?
>> Yeah. And so as it relates to both the
AIPA of 1977, which is the act that this
case is about, but also the National
Emergencies Act of 1976, should they go
back and pass a new law that basically
forces the president to have to get
congressional approval for any emergency
to last longer than 30 days? So I do
think that's going to be the big debate
that's going to come out of this. As it
relates to the tariff revenue, I am most
worried about the fact that we use the
tariff revenue, as I said before, to
offset spending and basically keep a
baseline of spending without actually
getting ourselves to that deficit
target. Right now, we are going to
vaporize and create debt of $2 trillion
this fiscal year. So, we're using the
the tariff revenue under the CDO scoring
to basically say, "Hey, we can do these
tax cuts because it's offset." But the
goal shouldn't be to offset. The goal
should be to get cuts to actually reduce
the deficit. And so, that's the biggest
concern I have with respect to the
tariffs long term is it's now a new
revenue source that we don't actually
treat as incremental to reduce deficit.
We just use it as a way to introduce new
spending or continue spending. Sachs,
just to um you know talk about the three
branches of government, wouldn't it also
be an option for the president just to
go to Congress with some of these
tariffs and say, "Hey, can I get these
approved?" Would that be the worst thing
in the world? Wouldn't they vote for it?
>> I mean, but yeah, things take time. Do
you have concerns that President AOC
might do some things with executive
powers that the Republican party might
be opposed to if she winds up winning in
2028? That's an important question, Sax,
is if AOCC's president and then she uses
her emergency authorization to do things
that you disagree with, wouldn't the
Republicans then feel regret that they
didn't pass one of these acts that
limits emergency authorization and
power?
>> Well, look, I I think that in general,
when you have a policy that you want to
last for a long time, the best thing to
do is to codify it into law because
executive orders obviously only last
until the next president decides they
don't want them anymore. So yeah, it may
make sense after the administration
hopefully wins its case to seek to
codify these things into law. We have a
few years to do that, but I don't think
it makes sense to wait for Congress to
act because they may never act. And in
fact, it was President Trump who shifted
the whole debate on this topic. I mean,
the whole establishment of both the
Republican and Democrat parties were
very against tariffs and it's pretty
obvious that nothing would have happened
on this issue and he's completely moved
the debate. So, this is just one where I
think he's acted unilaterally because he
had to. But I think that once these
tariffs are in place for a few years, I
don't think they're going to get pulled
back by a future president because I
think they're going to
>> it's too much money
>> become quite popular.
>> It's too much money.
>> Okay. In the other cases, two more lower
courts have ruled against Trump. One
said the deployment of the Marines and
the National Guard were illegal. One
said he can't freeze research funds for
Harvard. So, again, back to moving fast
and breaking things.
These cases are making their way through
the courts and there has been some
resistance
to sending in the National Guard which
is something there's been a bit of saber
rattling chimoth about maybe going into
Chicago next. What are your thoughts on
the National Guard issue?
>> They should look here's the thing. Who
is against safety and security?
Who
and why? I don't understand. So if you
can't do your job, look, you have to
remember Jason, let's take where we live
in California, where you used to live.
>> Yep. Not anymore.
>> 13% of our income goes towards state
coffers
and then we pay real estate taxes and
all of the stuff that goes to local
municipalities. What are you doing with
that money if you're not making the
places we live safe? And then the second
thing would be making the schools good.
And so if you can't do it, if you can't
do it, of course somebody else should
step in. And frankly, what I have heard
consistently is even though the talking
point has to be, "Oh my god, woe is me.
We can do the job." Everybody behind the
scenes like, "Oh, thank God they're
here." Anybody who is being impacted by
crime would like to see the National
Guard come in and remove encampments or
drug dealers or get drugs off the
streets. Saxs, you know, you're a um my
perception would be that you think that
there should be separations between the
executive branch and uh maybe the states
and that this rule breaking of sending
in the national guard that would go
against the rules of the sovereignty of
the states. So, putting aside Chamat's
point, which is completely valid, that
they haven't done a good job here and it
it is illegal as the judges are pointing
out, do you have concerns about that?
>> Okay. Well, first of all, I reject this
characterization that it's the Trump
administration that's moved fast and
breaking things. If you recall
>> fast, let's just say moving fast.
>> Well, I think the president is taking
swift executive actions that are
popular. And you see this actually in
his poll ratings. He got the highest
approval rating he's ever had just in
the last week. And a big part of it is
because of the reduction in crime in DC.
I think he got to 55% approval on poll
rating. And even in DC, by the way, the
mayor and her staff have said all sorts
of positive things about the help
they've received now from the National
Guard and from the federal government.
And the citizens are extremely happy.
Crime is down. I think we had the first
two weeks where there was no murders in
the capital in a long time. The
residents are very happy. So, this is
definitely working. Now, with respect to
California, let me just point out that
the National Guard wasn't called in
specifically to enforce laws on the
street. What happened was that you had
ICE and Homeland Security agents and
workers were doing their job and they
were conducting some deportations and
then you had protests turn into riots
and those protesters were threatening to
burn down their headquarters and that's
why the National Guard had to be sent
in. So, it wasn't the Trump
administration breaking things. It was
riers who were breaking things. I can't
understand for the life of me why the
administration wouldn't be able to send
in the National Guard to protect federal
workers against riers, but apparently
that's the case. So, look, I think the
court reached a very specific decision
about what happened in California. We
still haven't had a case adjudicating
the question of whether the proposed
interventions in in these blue states to
clean up crime will be allowed over the
objections of Democrat governors. We
don't know.
>> I think it's pretty clear that the DC
intervention will be allowed and it's
extremely popular. And look,
>> the DC one he's legally allowed to do.
So yeah, he's got he's got his what was
it? A 30-day mandate. He can take it
over. And so here's your popularity from
the economist. It is ticking up, but um
Trump uh and the country still seems
pretty divided. 41% approved, 55%
disapproved, 3% unsure, but he has moved
up significantly in the last week.
Today, some big news came out Friday
with the uh soft jobs report. Pretty
much bad across the board. Jobs came in
super light, 22,000 added versus 75,000
expected. Most of the gains came from
part-time jobs. US lost 357 full-time
jobs while gaining 597,000 part-time
jobs last month. And uh this is after a
bunch of revisions. You guys remember we
talked about here a couple of times with
these revisions. And we'll show up some
uh charts with long-term revisions. July
revised up slightly by 6K, 73,000 to 79.
In June was revised down significantly.
Remember that impacted the market by
27,000. This makes June the first month
with a net loss of jobs since July of
2021.
So there's an account on XCOV letter and
they did this uh revisions chart. It's
pretty crazy as you can see.
May and June revisions were in the six
figures and they're constantly revising
these down it seems. All right. Uh free
break had some internet connectivity
issues apparently. But Shimoth, let's
talk about the revisions here and the
softness in the job market concerning.
Did maybe the Fed take too long to uh
get towards cuts in September? Uh what
what is what's your read on this and the
endless revisions?
>> Look, I think that I've said this yes
last week, I think, right? So I'll just
say it again this week. You can't run
the most sophisticated economy in the
world if you have data that is
completely unreliable in either
direction.
>> And so the problem with this jobs report
is there are already two competing
versions of the truth.
One group of people are trying to paint
the jobs report as
everything is working. There's nothing
to see here. Another group of people are
saying, "Oh, well, hold on. there's a
birth stats number where if you extract
that out the jobs numbers is actually
negative.
I don't know
which one is actually better in terms of
where we want to be right now going into
a rate cut cycle. So my general
commentary is the following. The BLS
and their approach is incredibly
brittle.
It doesn't work.
I think commerce has taken the first
right step which is to start publishing
useful economic data into the
blockchain.
I think we need to figure out a way and
this is where Congress should get their
act together and pass an incentive or a
requirement for certain parts of the
critical economic infrastructure of
America to report their data in an
anonymized way into a broad set of
blockchains.
And the reason is that you will have
very astute and precise pricing oracles
help distill that information. So if
you're ADP, if you're American Express,
if you're Stripe, there's an imperative
now for you to contribute the
information you have into a broad
collection of information so that we
have an accurate sense of what the hell
is actually going on. Because I can't
react to this number because I don't
know how it's going to change. It could
literally swing by 200,000 in either
direction. Jason,
>> this is a I think a really good point.
Here's some research. I had my uh put
one of my researchers at launch on this.
Here's 2021
and the initial reading first revision
and we did this for the year sach. So,
as you can see in 2021, they missed it
by 1.9 million uh which was about 15%.
2022 they miraculously nailed it. 2023
they were off by 10%. 2024 it looks like
they were off again by 10%. All this is
revising down by the way. in the first
half of this year. Let me just finish
the chart.
>> First half of this year,
>> initial reading 985, first revision 732,
second revision 497. So they were off by
50% so far this year alone.
This chart is itself inaccurate. The
table is
>> and and it's because it's coming from
the same people that measured. So you're
asking the people that measured to grade
themselves and I suspect that the answer
is actually much worse than all of this.
Now, what is the implication of it? The
implication of it is if you take the
most positive view possible, it's that
the people that then control the levers
of the economy don't actually have
accurate data. So, they'll be hesitant
to act until the data is overwhelming.
The most important lens of that will be
the Fed and what they do with rates. And
so, everybody's like, "Oh, wow. There's
a 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut."
That may be wildly wildly wildly
conservative in terms of the the total
amount that they need to be thinking
about and how they should phase that in.
But how would I actually prove that to
you? I can point to a whole litany of
private data,
>> but the problem is the federal actors
use public data and this data is not
useful.
And I think that when you get private
data into your hands, which I know that
other folks have, hedge funds, banks,
the White House, what they see is
different
than what the Fed sees. So what I would
tell you from this jobs report is it's
going to start again this clamor of what
is your plan?
>> Clapping is not a strategy. So a 25
basis point cut to a $32 trillion
economy is not a strategy. And I think
that the reason they don't know what to
do exactly is because they have
extremely faulty data. Again, this is
not I'm I'm not taking a position on
this or framing it as if I'm taking a
position. I'm just reporting the data
here as they've reported it. So I'm I'm
just doing that here just to be clear
here that I'm not endorsing any side of
this. I'm an independent. I'm a
moderate. I'm just giving you the data
as it stands. Here's the Fred chart just
so we can zoom out and see unemployment
since the 50s. We're still at historic
lows and there's a slight uptick 4.3%
which is the highest unemployment since
2021 but it's absurdly low historically.
So even we're looking historically sachs
we're still at very low but do you have
concerns that the economy could be
slowing and that we could have a jobs
issue? That I guess is the question that
is filling the airwaves on CNBC and that
everybody's talking about in group
chats. Are we uh maybe didn't make the
Fed cuts in time for what clearly is
some amount of slowing? Now, we could
argue over if they're getting the data
right or not. The Fed says they look at
all data, not just this data. They say
they look at the private data as well.
But what are your thoughts here, Sachs?
>> Well, we had 22,000 jobs added in
August. And yet, while the number of
jobs went up, unemployment rose, like
you said, from 4.2 to 4.3%.
Which is a little bit of a
contradiction, but that happened because
more people started looking for jobs.
>> Yeah.
>> But there are huge error bars around
this data. Like Jamal said, I mean, like
you showed, there's roughly 50%
revisions to all of this data over time
over the course of a year. So, we don't
really have great visibility in what's
going on. And that's why you see such
huge disparities in how people are
interpreting this data. So if you want
to look at some of the people who are
pessimistic, you've got coobe letter,
but they're pessimistic about
everything. You've got Moody's economist
Mark Xandandy. He says we're on the
precipice of a recession and he has a
bunch of reasons why. But then if you
look at Poly Market, people on Poly
Market are strongly betting against a
recession this year. I think the number
is at about 8%. So, it appears that most
people still feel like the economy is
doing well. And remember, we just had a
3.3%
GDP growth rate for Q2. So, I I'd be
surprised if if there's a recession. I
think there's a lot of factors against
it. I guess I would also note that if
there's any weakness in the job numbers,
it's coming from foreignb born workers
more than native born workers. Around 2
million more Americanborn workers have
jobs in 2025 so far. And I think
meanwhile about a million foreignb born
workers roughly have lost jobs. So the
net increase is about a million. But
what you're seeing is a repatriation in
a way of jobs within the economy. The
other thing that's happening is a
reprivatization of the economy. So in
August the federal government shed about
15,000 jobs and there's been 100,000
federal jobs lost over the course of the
whole year. So that makes the overall
numbers look worse than they are. But I
a lot of us would argue that having
fewer federal workers is a good thing
for the economy. So you've got those
factors. Then you've got blue collar
real wages are rising the second fastest
in history. You had 3.7% wage growth
this year versus 2.7% average inflation.
So you have a net 1% wage growth during
most of the Biden presidency. It was
negative.
And then I would also point to I think
several factors which would make me
optimistic about the economy moving
ahead. You've had massive investment in
the US by both private companies and
foreign governments. You know, according
to these new trade deals, I think
roughly $8 trillion of new investment.
You've got this AI boom you're seeing.
>> And that's going to land over the next
year, right? That hasn't actually been
dumped in. So we should see that in
2027,
maybe late 2026. Yeah.
>> Yeah. This is the outlook for 2026 and
beyond. I mean, this would be the bull
case is number one, $8 trillion of of
new investment in the US economy by
private companies and by foreign
governments. Number two, the AI boom.
You've got this massive buildout of data
centers and AI infrastructure underway.
And that includes energy and the
manufacturing sectors are going to boom
alongside tech. Number three, this has
been the most affordable summer at the
pump since 2021,
and low gas prices don't seem to be
going anywhere anytime soon. So, lowest
gas prices since 2021. Number four, you
have these huge new tax incentives for
business expansion. You've got the
accelerated depreciation on equipment
purchases, on R&D. I think those are
going to kick in once the big beautiful
bill goes into effect. And then the last
thing I would say is that interest rate
cuts are coming. I would say that now in
light of the latest jobs report, Pal
should really cut 50 basis points. I
doubt he will in September 25.
>> Yeah, I doubt he will. It's probably be
25 and then hopefully another 25. But I
think you can make the case that they
should do 50 now and then 25 after that.
But regardless of what it is, I think
that most people think interest rates
are coming and that's going to juice the
economy and further improve our fiscal
position. So look for 26, I think
there's a lot of bullish factors here.
All right, just before we wrap here,
Google, uh, as we know, was found liable
in this antitrust case, but the
sanctions seem to not be as harsh as
people thought they would be. Judge Meta
rejected the request that Google have to
spin off Chrome, Android,
and pointed out that Google is uh having
massive competition. So we had four
years of Lena Khan, you know, in these
aggressive cases. There were there were
tactical things we talked about here
like uh dark patterns, etc. that we all
agreed with. I think there was consensus
there, but this one we found a little
confusing because gosh, Google's under
so much pressure. What are your thoughts
on I thought this was
>> excellent.
>> Unpack it all. Essentially, the crux of
the ruling was look, there are some
restrictions that Google has to live by.
don't get me wrong, but the most
punitive remedies that were suggested
were thrown out. And the reason they
were thrown out was because the judge
very eloquently cited competition in a
fair and free and open market. And that
is incredibly refreshing because the
real question is would this judge have
had the wherewithal and the courage to
actually be able to rule this way
a few years ago when there would have
been an enormous amount of political
pressure. They probably would have found
a way to to run this case in a in a
different place etc etc. But now what
you saw was just very simple logic
intervene. And at the core of it was,
you know, when we started this lawsuit,
things like OpenAI and Chat GPT didn't
exist. And when you fast forward, it's
incredibly fastm moving. We are
reallocating hundreds of millions or
billions of users intentions. As a
byproduct, we're reallocating tens of
maybe hundreds of billions of dollars of
revenue. And so the judge said the most
severe remedies aren't necessary because
the free market is doing its job.
>> Yes.
>> So I I just think that's incredibly
refreshing because we forget
>> that if the market is left to deal with
these issues on its own, they do a very
good job of cleaning things up. And it's
because as you said earlier, Jason,
consumers want creative destruction.
They want the next best thing. They want
to be
>> better prices better services. It's it
happens by the free market. They're
willing they're willing to reward better
companies and better products. So I
think the the great news for Google is
that this takes an enormous
risk off the table. And now I think that
they probably have even more
ambition and energy to just go for it
and try to compete because they're not
going to be worried about everybody on
the outside and probably some percentage
of employees on the inside who are
always trying to slow things down.
>> Yeah. and and it out correctly and I'll
let you comment on this Sachs is that
they did get some tactical,
>> you know, penalties here. Uh, and they
make sense doing deals that are
exclusive when you are a Monopoly
player, like getting Firefox and Apple
to only do an exclusive deal with you.
They're not going to be allowed to do
that. And man, that would change the
game on the field if somebody like
Duck.Go or Bing or a new entrant,
Proplexity, whoever who's doing search
would be able to say to Apple, we will
outbid Google for 10% of the searches.
We'd like to buy 5% of the searches from
the Safari browser going to Firefox and
saying, "Hey, we'd like to one up and
we'd like some percentage of that." So,
that seemed like a good part of the
ruling. Your thoughts overall about
this? So on this podcast, I think it was
two or three years ago when this case
first came up. I think I took the
position that Google Street broken up
into two or three companies because I
thought it was this invulnerable
monopoly and I don't think monopolies
are great for the SAR ecosystem. And
what I mean by that is they had the
Google search monopoly and that YouTube
business which is basically a monopoly
and so forth and so on. So, I I was in
favor of breaking this up, but I've got
to admit I was wrong about that for the
reasons that the judge said, which is
Google for the first time in a long
while, is existentially threatened by
what's happened with AI. I mean, their
cash cow, the core of their business is
search, and people are starting to
substitute in droves from traditional
Google search, which they own, or
keyword search, where they have this
monopoly or dominant share to AI. And if
you look at AI revenue, I think
something like 90% of it is going to
open AI. I mean, they have the dominant
position among consumers
>> for now for now. And there's, let's say,
five major AI companies that are hot on
their heels and very competitive
>> and performing equally if not better on
performance benchmarks. So the point is
just I think everyone can now see that
the search business is either going away
or transforming into something else
which is it's basically merging with the
it's called AI chatbot business.
>> It's an answers business now. It's not a
like give me links. It's just give me
the damn answer,
>> right? And we've been talking about this
for a while where it's so obvious that
having AI just give you the answer is
better than 20 blue links. especially as
the quality improves and it gets better
at synthesizing those 20 blue links into
the exact right answer and the speed
improves. One of the things that
Google's really good at is just fast
responses. You they've always shown you
in milliseconds how long it takes to
give you the search result. And
obviously if you're looking for
something quick and an AI chatbot's
going to take 30 seconds, you're going
to go with Google. But that's going to
get better, too. So I think Google is
kind of in the fight of its life right
now. And I think this is why Sergey's
come back. You know, we saw him at the
>> at the dinner at the White House
yesterday and he said he's very involved
in Google Deep Mind.
>> He's going to the office all the time.
Yeah.
>> Right. And so you're seeing that founder
involvement again because they know that
they've got a real existential threat to
their business. And this is the argument
that opponents of strong antitrust
enforcement have always made, which is
that the free market will eventually
break up, even the strongest monopolies,
if you just give it the chance to do it.
And that's what appears to be in motion
right now. By the way, I'm not saying
that Google's going to get destroyed.
I'm not saying it's going away. I'm just
saying that they have to pivot here in a
big way. their business is being
disrupted and they suddenly have
competition I think in their core
business like they've never had before.
So I do think that we don't need to
bring the hammer down on them in the
same way that maybe we did a few years
ago. I still would not let them pursue
anti-competitive tactics against say
applications in the Android store where
they basically have a duopoly. So I'm
not saying I would let them do anything
but I certainly agree with this judge
that we don't need to break up that
company right now.
>> Yeah. Yeah. And there's there's rules in
the field that need to be adjudicated.
So having a very simple approach with
the FTC of saying, "Hey, these exclusive
deals when you have 90% market share,
that's not allowable. But you can
compete and you can fight versus the
five new entrance and uh have at it and
and give consumers a better product at a
cheaper price." That's really the goal
of the FTC is to to have some basic
rules of the field. We saw it in the
media business as well. We spend a
decade or two trying to fight the
consolidation of media companies and
then Netflix has trounced them all and
YouTube as well in terms of viewership.
Netflix and YouTube are crushing the
cable monopolies that we spend all this
time trying to regulate. All right
everybody, there's your episode. We have
to get back to work and get to Los
Angeles for the amazing fourth edition
of the Allin Summit. It's going to be
amazing and all the great content
including some surprise speakers that'll
be released over the next week or two
after the event. So, you're going to get
massive amounts of content. Make sure
you go to the YouTube channel,
subscribe, and click that bell so you
get alerts. Go to allin.com, put your
email in. We'll invite you to more
events. Chamath and I might be doing
something in the poker space. That could
be a lot of fun. My guy TK and I, we
might be doing a little back gammon uh
tournament. All right, everybody. Thanks
for tuning in to the All-In podcast.
We're finished. Bye-bye, besties. Love
you. Love you guys.
>> Let your winners ride.
[Music]
>> We open sourced it to the fans and
they've just gone crazy with it. Love
you.
[Music]
>> Besties are gone.
>> That is my dog taking a notice in your
driveway.
>> Oh man, my dasher will meet.
>> We should all just get a room and just
have like one big huge orgy cuz they're
all just useless. It's like this like
sexual tension that they just need to
release somehow.
Wet your feet.
>> We need to get merch.
[Music]
>> I'm going all in.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The podcast hosts discuss a recent tech-focused dinner held at the White House with President Trump, detailing the logistical arrangements, the atmosphere of cooperation among tech industry leaders, and their support for the current administration's business-friendly agenda. The conversation also covers the impact of recent tariffs, the legal challenges surrounding them, and whether they serve as a strategic revenue tool or an inflationary risk. Additionally, the group addresses the current state of the job market, debating the reliability of government data versus private indicators, and concludes with a discussion on the recent antitrust ruling involving Google, agreeing that market competition has become a more effective regulator than government intervention.
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