>> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY,"

REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS STAY

AHEAD WITH THE INSIGHT FROM PEOPLE, COMPANIES, AND TRENDS

SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY, PLUS GLOBAL BUSINESS,

FINANCE, AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS.

"BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM

STENOVEC LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, YOUTUBE, AND

BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. CAROL: GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYBODY

ACROSS BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS. LIVE HERE AT BY BLOOMBERG

HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK CITY. IT'S ANOTHER BUSY DAY, ANOTHER

BUSY FRIDAY HERE IN 2026. LET'S GET TO IT ON THIS MARCH

20. HEADLINE ABOUT ONE HOUR AGO, IRANIAN OFFICIALS HAVE BECOME

RELUCTANT TO DISCUSS EVEN REOPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

AS THEY ARE FOCUSING ON THIS CONTINUED ONSLAUGHT FROM THE

U.S. AND ISRAELI MILITARY.

THIS ACCORDING TO A PERSON FAMILIAR, INVOLVED IN DIRECT

LEVEL CONTACTS WITH TEHRAN. WE SAW OIL PRICES SNAP HIGHER

ON THE HEADLINE. THEY BACKED OFF A LITTLE BIT

BUT NONETHELESS THAT IS OUR BACKUP ON THIS FRIDAY. TIM:

OIL HIGHER, WTI UP ABOUT $98 A BARREL.

YOU GUESSED IT, IF ANYONE HAS BEEN PAYING ATTENTION, STOCKS

DOWN, S&P DOWN, OFF OF ITS WORST LEVELS OF THE DAY. CAROL:

WE HAVE SEEN YIELDS HIGHER, AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT ON THIS

FRIDAY.

BEFORE WE GET GOING, 5.7 TRILLION DOLLAR TRIPLE-WITCHING

FRIDAY. THAT COULD ADD SOME VOLATILITY

INTO THE TRADE.

YOU ALSO THINK ABOUT INVESTORS, PAUL SWEENEY EARLIER ON

BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE TALKING ABOUT HOW HE REMEMBERS, WHEN HE

WAS TREATING, YOU WANTED TO CLOSE OUT POSITIONS, YOU WANT

TO DENOTE A RISK INTO THE WEEKEND.

I DON'T KNOW IF WE HAVE SEEN THAT BUT IT'S DEFINITELY BEEN A

RISK OF TRADE THIS WEEK. TIM: IT DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENED

DURING THE WEEK, HOW TRADERS WANT TO BE POSITIONED INTO A

WEEK OF GEOPOLITICAL CRISIS. THE QUESTION THAT PEOPLE HAVE

COME A BOOTS ON THE GROUND, IS THAT A POSSIBILITY? CAROL:

WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT. IT DOES SEEM LIKE THERE IS NO

END TO THIS MORE, SO WE WILL GET THE LATEST FROM THE WHITE

HOUSE, PLUS WHAT MAY CRIPPLE OUR ECONOMY.

IT STARTS WITH THE LETTER D, AND WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT

DEPRESSION BUT IT IS SOMETHING MORE RELATIVE. TIM:

WHERE YOU CAN FIND IT? I WAS GOING TO SAY A GAS

STATION, BUT ANYWAY. CAROL: SO MUCH FOR THE TEASE.

TIM: THIS AS THE INDUSTRY PICKS UP

STEAM, HIGHER VALUATIONS, MORE PARTNERSHIPS.

IAN MCGINLEY IS STOPPING BY, FORMER HEAD OF ENFORCEMENT AT

THE CFTC. CAROL: YOU HAVE AN EXCLUSIVE WITH ONE

OF THE KALSHI FOUNDERS. THAT WHOLE IDEA OF GAMBLING,

NOT GAMBLING AS ALL OF THIS MOVES FORWARD. TIM:

PEOPLE THINK IT IS GAMBLING, THE COMPANY SAYS IT IS NOT.

CAROL: LET'S GET YOU GOING ON WITH

THAT TRADE IS ON THIS FRIDAY. COVER IT ALL FOR US IS CHARLIE

PELLETT. CHARLIE: WE JUST HAD A PRINT OF 99 ON

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE. 98.65.

UP BY 2.6 PERCENT.

A BARREL IMPRINT, 110.77, UP BY ALMOST 2%.

WE ARE WATCHING OIL, ALSO THE 10-YEAR, 4.63%.

2-YEAR, THREE .80%. S&P 500 INDEX DOWN 1% RIGHT

NOW, DOWN 68.

6537 IS WHERE WE STAND ON THE S&P 500 INDEX.

THE NASDAQ DOWN 335. DECLINE OF 1.5%.

VIX NOW ABOUT 26 WITH THE 10-YEAR, FOUR POINT 63%.

GOLD IS DOWN 1.6%. 4574 AN OUNCE GOLD.

WTI ,98.65 A BARREL NOW.

OIL MAJORS PUSHING HIGHER. EXXON MOBIL UP 2%.

CHEVRON, ONE .2%. AS YOU WOULD EXPECT BECAUSE OF

ENERGY COSTS, AIRLINE NAMES ARE LOWER. S&P DOWN 1%.

FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG

NEWS NOW OR WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS.

I'M CHARLIE PELLETT. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS

FLASH. CAROL: THANK YOU SO MUCH. WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING OUR LIVE

BLOG WHEN IT COMES TO THE WAR. A COUPLE OF THINGS IN TERMS OF

THE HEADLINES, IRANIAN OFFICIALS HAVE BECOME RELUCTANT

TO EVEN DISCUSS REOPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS THEY FOCUS

ON SURVIVING THE U.S. IS REALLY ONSLAUGHT, ACCORDING

TO A PERSON INVOLVED WITH HIGH LEVEL CONTACTS WITH TEHRAN.

WE ARE HEARING ABOUT THIS, REPORT AND THE WALL STREET

JOURNAL ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF BOOTS ON THE GROUND FROM THE

UNITED STATES. TIM: THE U.S. SENDING 2500 ADDITIONAL

MARINES, THREE WARSHIPS, THE U.S.

ALSO WEIGHING IN OPERATION TO OCCUPY KHARG ISLAND.

ADDING THAT NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE. CAROL:

LET'S TRY TO GET AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE PLAN,

CONSENSUS, IS THERE ANY TIMELINE, ANY END TO THE WAR?

WITH US IS CORRESPONDENT JEFF MASON.

GOOD TO BE CHECKING IN WITH YOU. HERE WE ARE GETTING READY TO

ENTER OUR FOURTH WEEK WHEN IT COMES TO U.S. WAR IN IRAN.

IS THE PRESIDENT LOOKING FOR AN OFFRAMP?

WHAT IS OUR WAY FORWARD HERE, DO WE HAVE ANY CLEAR IDEA? JEFF:

I HEARD THE QUESTIONS YOU WERE MENTIONING THAT YOU WOULD ASK.

THE TRUTH IS A LOT OF THOSE QUESTIONS ARE QUESTIONS THAT

ONLY THE PRESIDENT KNOWS THE ANSWERS TO.

IS HE LOOKING FOR AN OFFRAMP? POSSIBLY.

HAS HE GIVEN MIXED MESSAGES ABOUT THAT? ABSOLUTELY.

HE HAS SAID THE U.S. IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH THEIR

OPERATION, HAS SAID BEFORE THAT HE THINKS THE WAR COULD END

SOON. THEN OF COURSE THE U.S.

CONTINUES TO ATTACK, CONTINUES TO BE IN A POSITION TO CONTINUE

THIS WAR FOR SOME TIME. REPORTS FROM THE WALL STREET

JOURNAL AND OTHER MEDIA ORGANIZATIONS ABOUT TROOPS

BEING SENT TO THE REGION WOULD ONLY UNDERSCORE THAT. TIM:

WHAT DO KNOW ABOUT THOSE TROOPS? THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

REPORTING THAT THE U.S. IS SENDING MORE MARINES AND

WARSHIPS TO THE MIDDLE EAST. DOES THAT INDICATE THAT THE

OPERATION CHANGES IN SOME WAY, MOVES FROM STRIKES IN THE AREA

TO PERHAPS A DIFFERENT TYPE OF OPERATION? JEFF:

ONE SHOULDN'T NECESSARILY ASSUME THAT FORCES BEING SENT,

ADDITIONAL FORCES BEING SENT TO THE MIDDLE EAST EQUATES WITH

BOOTS ON THE GROUND. BOOTS ON THE GROUND, MOST

PEOPLE WOULD ASSUME, MEANS ACTUAL AMERICAN TROOPS IN IRAN

OR ON KHARG ISLAND, FOR EXAMPLE. THAT IS NOT THE SAME AS

REINFORCING THE MULTITUDE OF BASES, TROOPS/FORCES ALREADY IN

THE REGION. I DON'T HAVE THE ANSWER ABOUT

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS EVENTUALLY PLANNING ON DOING.

I DID, HOWEVER, HAVE A CHANCE

TO ASK THIS ABOUT HIM IN THE OVAL OFFICE, ASKING WHETHER HE

WOULD SEND MORE BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN THE REGION.

HE SAID NO. MIXED SIGNALS, BUT I DON'T

THINK YOU CAN CONCLUDE FROM THE REPORTING WE HAVE SEEN FROM

SOME OF OUR COLLEAGUES, THAT THAT MEANS BOOTS ON THE GROUND

IS WHAT IS COMING NEXT. CAROL:

WHEN IT COMES TO MIXED SIGNALS, I THINK ABOUT DIRECTOR OF

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE TULSI GABBARD, WHO WAS BEFORE A

SENATE COMMITTEE ANSWERING QUESTIONS ABOUT IRAN AND

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE LEADING UP TO THE PRESIDENT'S DECISION

TO TAKE THE ACTION AGAINST IRAN. CONTRADICTORY STATEMENTS BY

HER, WHETHER OR NOT IRAN WAS REALLY A THREAT.

I DON'T KNOW IF IT REALLY MATTERS AT THIS POINT BECAUSE

WE ARE IN A WAR, BUT I GUESS WHAT I'M WONDERING IS, WE HAVE

ANOTHER STORY OUT ON THE BLOOMBERG ABOUT THE PRESIDENT

LOSING CONTROL OF THE WAR. IS HE IN CONTROL TO FIND AN

OFFRAMP?

IS THERE NEGOTIATING GOING ON THAT KEEPS THE U.S.

STILL IN SOME KIND OF CONTROL OF THIS SITUATION, OR HAS IT

GONE BEYOND THAT? JEFF:

WE ARE GETTING A LITTLE BIT INTO SEMANTICS, WHAT DOES IT

MEAN TO BE IN CONTROL? CERTAINLY, THE PRESIDENT IS IN

CONTROL OF WHAT THE U.S. FORCES DO COME HE IS CALLING

THE SHOTS ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT, HE GETS TO MAKE THE

DECISION ABOUT AN OFFRAMP, WHETHER HE IS LOOKING FOR ONE

OR WHETHER HE WANTS TO STICK AROUND LONGER.

IN TERMS OF IF HE IS LOSING CONTROL IF THE RAMIFICATIONS OF

THE DECISION HE MADE TO LAUNCH THE STRIKE, THESE STRIKES

AGAINST IRAN, MAY BE, IF YOU LOOK AT THE OIL PRICES.

IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THE WHITE HOUSE WAS EXPECTING THAT

RAMIFICATION. IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THEY WERE

READY FOR THE IMPACT ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THAT SAID, THE PRESIDENT ALSO ADDRESSED THAT IN THE OVAL

OFFICE YESTERDAY, INDICATED THAT HE THOUGHT OIL PRICES

WOULD GO EVEN HIGHER. WE ALL KNOW IN THE WORLD OF

POLITICS THAT SPIN IS PART OF THE GIG.

PROBABLY FAIR TO ASSUME THERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF SPIN IN

THAT. TIM: THE POLITICS OF THIS ESPECIALLY

AHEAD OF THE MIDTERMS IN A FEW SHORT MONTHS, YOU ARE IN

WASHINGTON. REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS WHO MAY BE

UP FOR REELECTION OR VULNERABLE AREAS, TO WHAT EXTENT DO THESE

HIGHER PRICES MOVE A FOCUS FROM AFFORDABILITY, WHICH WE KNOW IS

A VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE FOR VOTERS GOING INTO THIS

MIDTERMS, TO WHAT EXTENT DOES THAT HURT REPUBLICANS IN THE

MIDTERMS? JEFF: IT COULD HURT THEM IN A MASSIVE

WAY. YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT TO MENTION AFFORDABILITY.

THAT WAS THE BUZZWORD FOR WEEKS AGO BEFORE THE WAR STARTED.

THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANT TO PRESIDENT TRUMP

TO FOCUS ON AS HE WAS, AT THAT TIME, SUPPOSED TO BE BEGINNING

A REGULAR SET OF STOPS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TO TALK ABOUT

HIS ECONOMIC AGENDA. YOU ARE NOT SEEING HIM DO THAT

NOW BECAUSE HE IS RUNNING A WAR. THE AFFORDABILITY MESSAGE WILL

BE A MUCH HARDER ONE FOR THIS MESSAGE TO GET BEHIND BECAUSE

OF THE PRICES YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.

ENERGY PRICES, PRICES AT THE PUMP, THAT IS SOMETHING THAT

HITS PEOPLE IN THE POCKETBOOK RIGHT AWAY, EVERY DAY.

TO YOUR BROADER QUESTION OF IF THAT WILL HURT REPUBLICANS IN

NOVEMBER, IT DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE WAR LASTS, HOW QUICKLY

OIL PRICES RECOVER ONCE THE WAR CONCLUDES.

WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWERS TO THOSE QUESTIONS, BUT WE KNOW

THAT IS SOMETHING THEY ARE THINKING ABOUT HERE, AND IN THE

REPUBLICAN PARTY. CAROL: I'M GOING TO ADD ON A QUESTION.

WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT AS WE ARE FOCUSED SO MUCH ON THE WAR?

I KNOW WE ALWAYS ASK THIS BECAUSE WE KNOW WE HAVE A

PRESIDENT WHO CAN OFTEN MOVE US AROUND IN TERMS OF WHAT WE

FOCUS ON. THE WEAVE.

WHAT AREN'T WE WATCHING THAT IS GOING ON IN WASHINGTON RIGHT

NOW? JEFF: DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

IS STILL CLOSED. THERE IS STILL A GOVERNMENT

SHUT DOWN HERE. IMMIGRATION POLICY HAS BEEN

SHIFTED OUT OF THE HEADLINES BECAUSE OF THE WAR, BUT THE

IMPACT OF THAT ON AIRPORTS, TSA, CONTINUED RAMIFICATIONS OF

THE KILLINGS OF TWO CITIZENS THIS YEAR -- THAT WASN'T LAST

YEAR. THOSE ARE STILL BIG STORIES

THAT ARE GETTING LESS ATTENTION BECAUSE OF THIS CONFLICT. CAROL:

ALWAYS GREAT TO CHECK IN WITH YOU, JEFF MASON, BLOOMBERG

WASHINGTON AND WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT.

WE WILL STAY ON THE WAR WITH IRAN AND WHAT IT MAY MEAN IF

PRESIDENT TRUMP LOSES CONTROL. WE ASKED ABOUT IT BUT IT IS

ALSO A HEADLINE ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL. TIM:

TRUMP REPORTEDLY CONSIDERING OPTIONS TO ESCALATE PRESSURE ON

IRAN INCLUDING STRIKING OIL INFRASTRUCTURE.

SENIOR ANALYST FOR ASIA PACIFIC ATOM BAR JOINS US FROM OUR

WASHINGTON BUREAU. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR YOU IN A

TEAM TO POTENTIALLY BE LOSING CONTROL?

HOW DO YOU USE THAT WORD? ADAM: THIS ALL FLOWS FROM WHAT THE

OBJECTIVES OF THE WAR ARE, HOW THE PRESIDENCY SUCCESS.

WHEN WE LOOK AT THE WAR, THE CURRENT SITUATION, IT IS

UNCLEAR HOW THE UNITED STATES AND THE PRESIDENT CAN DECLARE

VICTORY WITHOUT LAYING OUT FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WHAT IT IS

HE SOUGHT TO ACHIEVE. WE ARE SEEING VARYING FORMS OF

HIM LAYING THAT OUT, WHETHER FROM DETAILING DESTROYING THE

BALLISTIC MISSILE FORCE IN THE NAVY WHICH WE HAVE SEEN A LOT

OF EFFORT TO DO, SOUNDS LIKE IT'S BEEN RATHER SUCCESSFUL,

BUT ALSO LOOKING FOR THE IRANIAN REGIME TO CAPITULATE OR

FALL DIRECTLY. WITH THAT QUESTION LOOMING OVER

ALL OF THIS, WE HAVE A SHIFTING NARRATIVE.

IF YOU THINK BACK JUST A WEEK AGO, IRAN SEEM TO BE FULLY ON

THEIR BACK FOOT, LASHING OUT BUT HAVING SUFFERED A MASSIVE

HIT FROM THE U.S. AND ISRAEL.

AFTER FURTHER INCREASES IN OIL PRICES, CLEARLY THAT THE U.S.

CANNOT QUICKLY REOPEN THE STRAIT, IT SEEMED TO BE

SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY, AND STATEMENTS FROM IRAN'S LEADER

TODAY INDICATE THEY SEEM TO SEE IT THAT WAY.

THAT RAISES QUESTIONS HOW THE PRESIDENT CAN MOVE FORWARD HERE

AND WHETHER HE FEELS IT IS STILL POSSIBLE TO DECLARE

VICTORY IN THE SHORT TERM, OR HAS TO ESCALATE THE HOPE THAT

HE CAN FORCE THE IRANIANS TO DE-ESCALATE. CAROL:

TWO DIFFERENT OPTIONS. IF ONE SAYS TO YOU, IF HE MOVES

FORWARD, ALTHOUGH WE ARE TALKING ABOUT BOOTS ON THE

GROUND, BUT THAT WILL HAPPEN ULTIMATELY, DOES THAT SAY TO

YOU AND THE TEAM, POTENTIALLY THE PRESIDENT IS LOSING CONTROL

OF THE WAR, IF HE CONTINUES TO MOVE FORWARD? ADAM:

I THINK THE PROBLEM WE ARE SEEING HERE IS NOT ABOUT THE

PRESIDENT LOSING CONTROL OF THE ACTIONS HAPPENING, BUT REALLY

THE UNANTICIPATED, OR IN SOME CASES, VERY ANTICIPATED

CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR CONTINUING.

THE LONGER THIS GOES, THE GREATER THE IMPACT ON THE

GLOBAL ECONOMY, THE GREATER THE IMPACT ON U.S. FORCES.

WE HAD A U.S. AIRCRAFT THAT WAS APPARENTLY

HIT BY A RADIANT FIRE MAKE AN EMERGENCY LANDING YESTERDAY.

THINGS LIKE THAT WILL KEEP HAPPENING.

ACCIDENTS WILL HAPPEN AND THE IRANIANS WILL GET LUCKY.

THAT RAISES THE POLITICAL COST OF LIVES IN THIS CONFLICT.

ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE, WE SEE IT DAY TO DAY, THE RISING OIL

PRICES ARE PUTTING PRESSURE ON EVERYTHING AROUND THE GLOBE

WITH INFLATION BEING THE KEYWORD NOW, STARTING TO IMPACT

ECONOMIES IN EAST ASIA, THOSE ARE MOST RELIED ON THE STRAIT

OF HORMUZ. THAT WILL SPREAD TO THE U.S.

AS WELL, IMPACTING WHAT IS ALREADY SEEN AS AN

AFFORDABILITY CRISIS. THOSE ARE THE FACTORS THAT

STAND TO INCREASE WITHOUT MOVEMENT TOWARD DE-ESCALATION

IN THE SHORT TERM. TIM: I'M GLAD YOU BROUGHT UP OTHER

COUNTRIES HERE BECAUSE AS CAROL OFTEN REMINDS US, WHAT HAPPENS

THERE IS NOT A VACUUM. WE HAVE TO LOOK AT NOT JUST

AROUND IN THE MIDDLE EAST, BUT WE HAVE TO LOOK AT CHINA,

RUSSIA, UKRAINE. WE GOT A HEADLINE EARLIER TODAY

ABOUT HOW THE KREMLIN WOULD POTENTIALLY STOP SHARING INTEL

WITH IRAN IF THE U.S. CUT OFF AID TO UKRAINE.

WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING IN THE REGION AND THE DYNAMICS PUTIN

IS PLAYING WITH REGARD TO IRAN? ADAM:

THE OFFER BY THE KREMLIN SEEMS TOO CUTE BY HALF.

THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT MOSCOW IS RELISHING IN THE MOMENT.

AS YOU SAID, THOUGH, THERE ARE CLEAR CONSEQUENCES OF THIS WAR

ALREADY AND WHAT HAPPENS IF IT CONTINUES ON OTHER CONFLICT OR

POTENTIAL CONFLICTS. IN UKRAINE, THE BIGGEST CLEAR

PROBLEM IS THE QUESTION OF U.S. HARDWARE IN PARTICULAR

INTERCEPTING MISSILES AND HOW MANY MAY BE AVAILABLE TO

PROVIDE TO UKRAINE SO THEY CAN CONTINUE TO DEFEND THEIR CITIES

AND THEIR TERRITORY REAL LARGE FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF RUSSIAN

BALLISTIC MISSILES AND DRONES. WHEN WE LOOK TO THE

INDO-PACIFIC, EVERY DAY THE UNITED STATES IS USING

EXQUISITE WEAPONRY THAT WOULD BE NEEDED IN A CONFLICT IF

SOMETHING WERE TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OR OVERTIME ONE

WITH CHINA. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT BEIJING

IS TAKING NOTE OF THAT. AS YOU HEARD FROM,'S EXPERTS,

THE TIMELINE TO PRODUCE--COUNTLESS EXPERTS, THE

TIMELINE TO PRODUCE AND REARM FOR THE UNITED STATES IS NOT A

QUESTION OF WEEKS OR MONTHS, BUT LIKELY YEARS.

THAT WILL CHANGE HOW THE UNITED STATES CAN CONDUCT ITS

OPERATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WEB BUT PARTICULARLY IN THE

INDO-PACIFIC. TIM: THAT HEADLINE TO STOP SHARING

INTEL WITH IRAN CAME FROM POLITICO, AND LET AGO

REJECTED-- POLITICO THEY REJECTED THE OFFER FOR UKRAINE

FOR QUOTE. CAROL: IT IS LIKE THIS GIANT

CHESSBOARD. TIM: GAME OF RISK. CAROL:

BUT I NEED MORE THAN TWO PEOPLE PLAYING BECAUSE THERE IS TOO

MANY PIECES. YOU THINK ABOUT THE GEO

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF ALL OF THIS.

YOU GUYS CAN WE KEEP THINKING ABOUT WHAT ALL THIS IS DOING TO

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. IT DOES FEEL LIKE WE ARE GOING

TO BE A DIFFERENT WORLD GOING FORWARD.

DON'T KNOW IF IT IS A BETTER WORLD AND MORE COLLABORATIVE OR

ARE WE GOING TO BE MORE DIVIDED AFTER THIS.

HOW ARE YOU GUYS CONTINUING TO REPORT THAT OUT AND THINK ABOUT

IT? ADAM: WE'RE CERTAINLY TRYING TO KEEP

OUR EYES OUTSIDE OF THE REGION AND FOR EXAMPLE, FOCUSING ON

THE THINGS HAPPENING THAT I'VE EVER CONSEQUENTIAL FOR THE

GLOBAL ECONOMY IN THE UNITED STATES, LIKE THE PRIME MINISTER

OF JAPAN'S VISIT TO THE WHITE HOUSE. THAT WAS ALL ABOUT CHINA,

FRAMING JAPAN'S INTEREST, AND KEEPING, AS JAPAN IS, THE

UNITED STATES IN LINE ON WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE EMITTING A

COUPLE DAYS FROM NOW BUT HAS BEEN DELAYED BETWEEN PRESIDENT

TRUMP AND PRESIDENT XI. EVEN THERE WE SAW THE DIRECT

IMPACTS OF THE WAR. WE SAW PRESSURE ON HER AND

JAPAN TO LIVE UP TO THE PRESIDENTS EXPECTATIONS, BUT

ALSO THIS MOVE TO FIND MORE OIL FROM THE UNITED STATES AND

DECREASE RELIANCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST, AND WE WILL SEE LOTS OF

CHANGES AFTER THE WAR, SOME UNANTICIPATED, SOME NOT. CAROL:

SO THAT WE COULD CHECK IN WITH YOU AGAIN.

ADAM FARRAR, BLOOMBERG SENIOR GEOECONOMICS ANALYST FOR

ASIA-PACIFIC. HIGHER VALUATIONS, YES.

WE WILL TALK PREDICTION MARKETS WITH THE FORMER DIRECTOR OF

ENFORCEMENT AT THE CFTC. ♪

CHARLIE: IT'S 2:21 ON WALL STREET.

DEVELOPING STORY ON BLOOMBERG, PROFESSIONAL SERVICE INVOLVING

KALSHI. KALSHI HAS BEEN BANNED FROM

OPERATING IN NEVADA FOR NOW BY A STATE JUDGE.

HEADLINE ON THE BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL SERVICE, KALSHI

BANNED FROM OPERATING IN NEVADA FOR NOW BY A STATE JUDGE.

ENERGY MARKETS HIGHER. DOW, S&P, NASDAQ ALL OVER.

ANOTHER HEADLINE INVOLVING IRAQ. IRAQ HAS DECLARED A FORCE

MAJEURE IN FOREIGN-RUN OIL FIELDS ACCORDING TO REUTERS.

A FORCE MAJEURE IS A LEGAL CLAUSE THAT FREES PARTIES FROM

LIABILITY OR OBLIGATION IN AN EXTRAORDINARY EVENT OR

CIRCUMSTANCE BEYOND THEIR CONTROL PREVENTING THEM FROM

FULFILLING THE CONTRACT WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE 98.51

A BARREL.

BRENT CRUDE ABOVE $111 RIGHT NOW, UP 2.7%.

DOW LOWER BY 416 POINTS, .9%. S&P DOWN 1.4%.

NASDAQ DOWN 406, A DECLINE OF 1.8%.

KEEP IT LOCKED INTO BLOOMBERG TELEVISION AND RADIO RIGHT

THROUGH THE CLOSE TO SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE UP. VIX ABOVE 27.

10-YEAR, 4.38%. TWO-YEAR, 3.80%. SPOT GOLD DOWN 1.09 THE OUNCE

TO 4540. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE,

98.45 A BARREL. RECAPPING, STOCKS LOWER, OIL

HIGHER, S&P DOWN ONE .4%. FOR ON-DEMAND USED WHEN HE FOUR

HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO "BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW"

WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCAST. I'M CHARLIE PELLETT.

THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL:

A LOT GOING ON THIS FRIDAY. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE

LATEST ON THE WAR, AND WE WILL BRING ANY NEW HEADLINES.

SPEAKING OF HEADLINES, JUST ONE CROSSING THE BLOOMBERG

TERMINAL, KALSHI TEMPORARILY BARRED BY A JUDGE FROM OFFERING

ITS PREDICTION MARKET CONTRACT IN NEVADA AFTER STATE

REGULATORS SAID THE COMPANY DID NOT HAVE A GAMING LICENSE.

STATE COURT JUDGE RULING IN CARSON CITY, SENDING A

TEMPORARY RESTRAINING ORDER BLOCKING KALSHI EVENT CONTRACTS

FOR SPORTS, ELECTION, ENTERTAINMENT, ACCORDING TO A

COPY OF THE ORDER PROVIDED BY THE GAMING CONTROL BOARD.

THE JUDGES SETTING A HEARING IN THE CASE FOR APRIL 3. TIM:

IT IS NOT THE ONLY BIT OF NEWS. MLB HAS ENTERED AN AGREEMENT

WITH POLYMARKET AND THE FEDERAL REGULATOR THAT OVERSEES

PRODUCTION MARKETS -- YESTERDAY KALSHI RAISED MORE THAN A

BILLION DOLLARS IN A VALUATION OF $22 BILLION IN A NEW

FINANCING ROUND. SPEAKING OF KALSHI, CRIMINAL

CHARGES AMPING UP GROWING STATE RESISTANCE TO THE COMPANY.

CAROL: STOCKS DID TAKE A LEG DOWN.

THIS IS OFF OUR LIFE BLOG. WE ARE AWAITING MORE

CONFIRMATION. CBS IS CITING MULTIPLE SOURCES

ON U.S. PERFORATIONS IN IRAN, AND THAT

IS THAT U.S. IS MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR

POTENTIAL GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN. THIS IS SOMETHING WE KICKED OFF

THE HOUR WITH, BUT BECAUSE WE DID SEE STOCKS TAKE A LEG DOWN,

I WANTED TO BRING THAT TO EVERYBODY'S ATTENTION.

SAID IT WAS BUSY. TIM: A PARTNER AT SYDNEY AUSTEN AND

FORMER DIRECTOR OF ENFORCEMENT AT THE CFTC, COMMODITIES

FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION, 2023 TO EARLY 2025.

HE JOINS US IN THE STUDIO. IT IS GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON THE

PROGRAM. IT'S HAPPENING SO QUICKLY WHEN

IT COMES TO INTEREST IN PREDICTION MARKETS.

I WANT TO GET YOUR RESPONSE ON THIS NEWS FROM NEVADA, BECAUSE

IT DOES SEEM LIKE STATE AFTER STATE IS GOING AFTER THESE

COMPANIES AND IS COMPANY. MAYBE IT HAS TO DO WITH

GAMBLING REVENUES, MAYBE IT HAS TO DO WITH OTHER LOBBYISTS, I

DON'T KNOW. CAN THE STATE ACTUALLY BAR THIS

COMPANY FROM DOING BUSINESS IN DIFFERENT STATES?

>> WELL, WHAT HAPPENED TODAY IN NEVADA IS A TEMPORARY.

THEY CAN, USUALLY FOR A SMALL PERIOD OF TIME, AND THEN HAVE

TO HAVE A HEARING, A FULL HEARING BEFORE A JUDGE WHERE

THEY WILL DECIDE IF THAT IS A PERMANENT BAN.

WE HAVE SEEN OTHER STATES TAKE VERY SIMILAR STEPS.

WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IS THERE IS THEN SOME LITIGATION IN

FEDERAL COURT. THIS WAS A STATE COURT JUDGE.

AND WHETHER IT GOES BACK TO STATE COURT WITH A FEDERAL

JUDGE HANDLES IT, IT REALLY DEPENDS.

OTHER STATES HAVE DONE SIMILAR THINGS. CAROL:

YOU KNOW, I CAN'T TELL, IAN, IF WE ARE PUTTING THE CART BEFORE

THE HORSE. IT FEELS LIKE CRYPTO, WHERE

THINGS MOVED AHEAD AND WE HAVEN'T PUT IN PLACE THE SAFETY

INFRASTRUCTURE, THE REGULATORY INFRASTRUCTURE.

AND I LOOK AT VALUATIONS GROWING.

IS EVERYTHING GETTING AHEAD OF ITSELF? DO WE NEED AT THIS POINT

REGULATORS TO SET SOME THINGS UP HERE? IAN:

THERE'S A FEW THINGS GOING ON, AND THERE IS A LOT GOING ON.

ON THE ONE HAND YOU HAVE LEGAL REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS.

ON THE OTHER HAND YOU HAVE THE BUSINESS IS GROWING

TREMENDOUSLY, SPONSORSHIPS -- CAROL: MLB IS PRETTY SERIOUS.

IAN: THAT IS A HUGE, HUGE ENDORSEMENT OF THE TYPE OF

TRADING. BUT I THINK THERE'S A FEW

THINGS. THERE IS REGULATION. AND THAT IS SOMETHING THAT

PEOPLE NEED TO REALIZE. WHEN THERE WERE TALKS ABOUT

INSIDER TRADING AND THINGS LIKE THAT, THAT IS PROHIBITED,

ALWAYS HAS BEEN. THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF NUANCE

TO IT. THE CFTC RECENTLY THIS WEEK PUT

OUT SOMETHING CALLED A NOTICE OF PROPOSED RULEMAKING.

BASICALLY SAID WE WANT COMMENTS FROM THE PUBLIC, WHETHER YOU

ARE THE STATE, BUSINESSES, SPORTS LEAGUES, AND WE ARE

GOING TO CONSIDER THAT BECAUSE WE ARE CONSIDERING REGULATION.

WE DON'T KNOW THE FORM OF THAT REGULATION.

IT'S NOT COME OUT YET, OF COURSE.

BUT IT CERTAINLY SUGGEST THAT THE CFTC IS CONSIDERING

REGULATION AND THERE WILL BE MORE REGULATION, AND

POTENTIALLY SOME CONTRACTS THAT ARE NOT LISTED. CAROL:

BUTCHER THE WORD THEN SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BIT UNTIL WE

UNDERSTAND ALL OF THIS--BUTCHER THE WORLD THEN SLOW DOWN A

LITTLE BIT UNTIL WE UNDERSTAND ALL OF THIS? OR NO?

IAN: WE WILL SEE WHAT THE COURTS SAY.

THAT IS WHERE WE SEE THE REAL SCOPE OF WHERE THINGS SHOULD GO.

YOU ARE ALLOWED TO SELF-CERTIFY YOUR CONTRACTS.

THAT IS A REGULATORY REGIME TO CFTC HAS.

THE CFTC CAN STEP IN AND STOP THAT.

WE WILL SEE IF THAT HAPPENS. BUT RIGHT NOW WHERE THE KIND OF

GUARDRAILS ARE COMING FROM, EXISTING CFTC LAW AND THEN

COURT DECISIONS. YOU MENTIONED THERE WAS A

CRIMINAL CASE THAT CAME DOWN THIS PAST WEEK.

THESE ARE JUST MY PERSONAL VIEWS, NOT THOSE OF MY FIRM OR

ANY CLIENTS. BUT THAT WAS NOTEWORTHY AND

IT'S THE FIRST TERMINAL CASE IN THE SPACE.

WHETHER OR NOT RELATED TO A TEMPORARY RESTRAINING ORDER,

WHICH IS A CIVIL MATTER, PROBABLY NOT. BUT WE'LL SEE.

THAT CRIMINAL CASE IS INTERESTING BECAUSE IT DOES NOT

MENTION -- IT DOESN'T CHARGE ANY INDIVIDUALS.

IT IS ALL MISDEMEANORS. IN ANY ACCUSATION, OF COURSE,

SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY, BUT FELONIES ARE THE MORE SERIOUS

CHARGE, NOT MISDEMEANORS. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE CHARGING

INSTRUMENT, WE WERE TALKING A LITTLE BIT ABOUT IT, IT JUST

LAYS OUT THAT THERE WERE TRADES ON A CERTAIN PLATFORM.

IT DOESN'T -- WHEN I WAS A FEDERAL PROSECUTOR, YOU WOULD

HAVE A CHOICE WHEN YOU RELEASE CHARGING DOCUMENTS.

YOU CAN DO SOMETHING CALLED A SPEAKING INDICTMENT, OR

SPEAKING INSTRUMENT, WHERE YOU LAY OUT ALL OF THE FACTS AND

WHAT YOU KNOW. BASED ON THIS, THEY DID NOT DO

THAT. TIM: WHAT IS A POTENTIAL OUTCOME

HERE WHEN IT COMES TO THE WAY THAT COURTS RULE ON THIS?

I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE AGREE THAT THIS GOES RIGHT TO THE

SUPREME COURT EITHER THIS YEAR OR NEXT YEAR.

IS THERE A CHANCE THE SUPREME COURT COMES OUT AND SAYS

PREDICTION MARKETS CAN OPERATE IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT THEY

CAN'T INCLUDE SPORTS PREDICTIONS, FOR EXAMPLE?

THEY CAN INCLUDE OTHER THINGS BUT NOT SPORTS PRODUCTIONS?

I DON'T KNOW, JUST THEORETICALLY, WHAT WOULD A

CASE OR DECISION POTENTIALLY LOOK LIKE FROM THE SUPREME

COURT THAT WOULD CLARIFY THIS FOR US, FOR USERS, FOR THESE

COMPANIES? IAN

THE SUPREME COURT REALLY ANSWERS THEIR QUESTIONS.

WE SAW THIS IN THE TARIFF DECISION.

THERE WAS A DISSENT THAT SPELLED US OUT WHERE THE

SUPREME COURT WILL WEIGH IN ON THE MOST NARROW ISSUE IT HAS

PRESENTED WITH. YOU CAN SEE THE ISSUE HERE IS

PREEMPTION. WHETHER FEDERAL OR STATE LAW

APPLIES. IT IS VERY RARE THAT THE

SUPREME COURT OR ANY OTHER COURT TAKES THE NEXT STEP AND

SAYS HERE IS HOW IT SHOULD BE REGULATED.

THAT IS WHERE THE AGENCY COMES IN. TIM:

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CFTC IS THE REGULATOR OR

THE STATES? IAN: THAT WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION.

THERE MAY BE SOME NUANCE, THE DEFINITION OF WHAT IS A SWAP,

WHAT CAN BE TREATED? TIM:

WHY DOES THE CFTC REGULATE THESE MARKETS BUT STATES

REGULATE VANDAL AND DRAFTKINGS? IAN:

THE ARGUMENT IS THE DIFFERENCE IN STRUCTURE.

AT A BASIC LEVEL, YOU ARE BETTING AGAINST THE HOUSE WHEN

YOU THINK ABOUT TRADITIONAL GAMING, GAMBLING.

IN THESE MODELS, PREDICTION MARKETS, YOU HAVE

COUNTERPARTIES, SOME ARE INSTITUTIONAL, LIQUIDITY

PROVIDERS. IT'S BECOMING A LOT MORE LIKE A

STOCK MARKET. CAROL: ON THAT POINT, ONE OF THE

THINGS THAT KEEPS COMING UP, CERTAINLY IN THE PANEL THAT YOU

DID IN FLORIDA ABOUT THIS IDEA ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT PREDICTION

MARKETS ARE GAMBLING. YOU DID SPEAK EXCLUSIVELY WITH

THE KALSHI CO-FOUNDER. LET'S LISTEN TO WHAT HE HAD TO

SAY.

>> THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A BETTER, WHETHER FINANCIAL

DERIVATIVES, CALLED GAMBLING IN THE 1800S.

THE SUPREME COURT DECISION SAID EVEN THOUGH THERE IS

SPECULATION, THESE PRODUCTS, OUR STRUCTURE IS THE FINANCIAL

MARKETS AND WILL FALL UNDER FINANCIAL MARKET JURISDICTION.

I ALWAYS SAY THIS, WHAT ARE FEELS OR LOOKS LIKE GAMBLING

DOESN'T MAKE IT GAMBLING. SPECULATION EXISTS IN ALL

FINANCIAL MARKETS. IF YOU'RE TAKING THE LINE THAT

SPECULATION IS GAMBLING, THE STOCK MARKET WITH RETAIL

PARTICIPATION IS GAMBLING. THEN RETAIL BUYING CRYPTO IS

GAMBLING. CAROL:

THAT IS THE KALSHI CO-FOUNDER. WE ARE TALKING WITH THE IAN

MCGINLEY, FORMER ENFORCER AT THE CFTC.

DOES HE HAVE A GOOD POINT OR IS THERE A DISTINCTION BETWEEN

WHAT HAPPENS IN PREDICTION MARKET VERSUS WHAT HAPPENS IN

FINANCIAL MARKETS, WHETHER IT IS DERIVATIVES OR YOU NAME IT?

IAN: THE POINT FROM A LAWYER STANDPOINT IS THE COMMODITY

EXCHANGE ACT DOESN'T DEFINE GAMBLING. THAT IS WHAT THE CFTC

IMPLEMENTS, THAT IS ITS STATUTE. THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A

LOT OF COURTS COME IN AND TRY TO DISTILL THE CONCEPT DOWN.

THERE IS A CONCEPT IN FEDERAL LAW, CFTC LAW, THAT TALKS ABOUT

GAMING, BUT IT ALSO DOESN'T DEFINE IT.

THAT IS WHY I THINK YOU SEE REGULATORS -- WHEN I WAS AT THE

CFTC, THERE WAS AN EFFORT TO FURTHER DEFINE GAMING.

IS IT A GAME, FOR EXAMPLE, OF SKILL OR CHANCE?

THAT IS WHERE YOU WILL SEE REGULATORS GO.

YOU MENTIONED ALL THE COURTS, DIFFERENT DECISIONS.

YOU HAVE DIFFERENT COURTS, APPELLATE COURTS, SUPREME COURT.

THERE ARE DIFFERENT DECISIONS ON THE SUPREME COURT LEVEL.

YOU KNOW THAT YOU CANNOT GET LAWYERS TO AGREE ON ANYTHING.

CAROL: SAYS THE APPELLATE LAWYER. IAN:

WE WILL SEE HOW THEY COME OUT. I AGREE, LIKELY WE SEE IT IN

THE SUPREME COURT. I DON'T KNOW THAT ALL OF THOSE

COURTS WILL LOOK AT IT EXACTLY THE SAME WAY. TIM:

YOU WILL FORMALLY DIRECTOR OF ENFORCEMENT AT THE CFTC.

ONE THING THAT IS NOTABLE TO PEOPLE IS THE WAY THE CFTC HAS

COME OUT AS ESSENTIALLY A PROPONENT OF THESE PLATFORMS

UNDER SELIG. I WONDER YOUR VIEW ON THAT.

WHY IS THE CFTC IN A POSITION NOT TO PROMOTE THEM, BUT TO

COME OUT ON X AFTER THE ARIZONA DECISION AND SAY ESSENTIALLY

THIS IS AN OVER STEP? IAN:

SOME OF IT IS JURISDICTIONAL. AGENCIES TYPICALLY DEFEND THEIR

JURISDICTION. I READ IT A LITTLE BIT MORE

NUANCED. I THINK THE CFTC, MY READ OF

WHAT THEY ARE SAYING, YES, THIS IS OUR JURISDICTION, BUT THEIR

NEW CITY GUARDRAILS. AT THE SAME TIME, THEY PUT OUT

A NOTICE FOR PROPOSED RULEMAKING, THEY PUT OUT AN

ADVISORY. AS I READ IT, THAT WAS A NOTICE

TO THE EXCHANGES TO SAY, WHEN YOU REGISTER AS AN EXCHANGE

WITH THE CFTC, YOU HAVE TO. MAKE REPRESENTATIONS THESE

CONTRACTS ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO MUTILATION.

I READ THE CFTC PUTTING OUT THAT SAYING COME EVERYONE, YOU

ARE UNFAIR NOTICE. YOU ARE A REGISTRANT TO POLICE

YOURSELF, BUT IF YOU DON'T FULFILL THAT, WE ARE HERE.

CAROL: SAME DEAL FOR PREDICTION MARKETS? IAN:

THEY DO HAVE AN OBLIGATION. CAROL:

GREAT STUFF, IAN MCGINLEY, FORMER ENFORCER AT THE CFTC.

CHARLIE: IT IS 2:40 ON WALL STREET.

WE DO CHECK MARKETS ALL DAY LONG HERE ON BLOOMBERG.

LOWS OF THE DAY FOR THE U.S. STOCK MARKET, DOW, S&P, NASDAQ

ALL IN THE RED, THIS IS ENERGY PUSHES HIGHER.

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE 92.38 A BARREL.

BRENT CRUDE, $112.

BRENT CRUDE UP BY THREE POINT 6%. OF COURSE, THE GLOBAL

BENCHMARK. DOW, S&P, NASDAQ IN THE RED.

S&P, 6509, DROP OF 1.5%.

ON THE DOW, DECLINE OF 1%. NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX DOWN

437, DROP OF 2%. THE VIX ABOVE 27.

10-YEAR 4.38%.

GOLD AT 4545 THE OUNCE, DOWN 2.2%.

PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS RELEASED A NATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR

REGULATING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, LAYING THE

GROUNDWORK FOR CONGRESS TO CREATE A FEDERAL STANDARD FOR

THE TECHNOLOGY. THE FRAMEWORK, WHICH BUILDS

UPON TRUMP'S EXECUTIVE ORDER, CALLS FOR ONLINE SAFEGUARDS FOR

CHILDREN, LESS STRINGENT PERMITTING REQUIREMENTS SO DATA

CENTERS CAN GENERATE POWER ON SITE, AND PREVENTING CENSORSHIP.

RECAPPING, S&P DOWN FIVE, DROP OF 1.4%. I'M CHARLIE PELLETT.

THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL: THANK YOU SO MUCH.

WE WANT TO MENTION, ONCE AGAIN, BRENT CRUDE DID HIT SESSION

HIGHS, ABOVE 112 DOLLARS A BARREL AFTER THAT CBS REPORT

ABOUT THE ADMINISTRATION, CONSIDERATION PERHAPS WHEN IT

COMES TO PUTTING BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN IRAN. THE U.S.

IS ACTUALLY PREPARING GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN, THIS IS COMING

FROM CBS, WE WANT TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT IT, BUT WE SAW OIL

MARKETS UNDERSTANDABLY SPIKING AGAIN.

STOCKS PRETTY MUCH OUT THERE AND THOSE OF THE SESSION. TIM:

IRAN STICKING TO ITS HARD-LINE POSITION ON THE STRAIT OF

HORMUZ.

THE LOADING POINT FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE COUNTRY'S SHIPMENTS,

KHARG ISLAND. THE U.S. SAYS THE U.S.

MILITARY HAD BOMBARDED RESOURCES ON THE ISLAND BUT

SPARED THE OIL INFRASTRUCTURE.

SINCE THEN, GAINING MOMENTUM THAT THERE COULD BE AN

INCURSION, THAT IT COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER SPIKE IN OIL

PRICES. CAROL: TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT AND

WHAT COMES NEXT. WE CONTINUE TO TRACK HOW ALL OF

THIS IMPACTS GLOBAL OIL AND ENERGY MARKETS.

WE WANT TO BRING YOU TO A STORY THAT CAUGHT OUR ATTENTION, AS

OUR TEAM THINKS ABOUT HOW THE U.S.

WAR IN IRAN IS IMPACTING GLOBAL MARKETS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, IN

PARTICULAR, THE U.S. ECONOMY. AS THEY WROTE IN THIS GREAT

READ, FOR ONE SMALL BUSINESS OWNER, IT COULD MEAN A

CRIPPLING OF THE U.S. ECONOMY. LET'S DIG INTO THIS.

WE ARE DELIGHTED TO HAVE WITH US WILL REPORTER NATHAN RISSER

IN OUR HOUSTON BUREAU. GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US.

BEFORE WE DIG INTO IT, YOU ARE IN HOUSTON.

I HAVE A LOT OF FAMILY THROUGHOUT THE STATE OF TEXAS.

SUCH AN IMPORTANT AREA WHEN IT COMES TO THE U.S.

ENERGY AND OIL MARKETS. WHAT ARE THE CONVERSATIONS

FOLKS ARE HAVING IN THE OIL INDUSTRY IN TEXAS, HOUSTON

ABOUT THE IMPACT THIS WAR IS HAVING? NATHAN:

THANKS FOR HAVING ME. AS YOU CAN TELL, WE ARE HAVING

SOME LOVELY WEATHER IN HOUSTON RIGHT NOW.

ONE OF THE BIG CONVERSATIONS WE ARE HAVING HERE IS HOW DOES IT

DISRUPT THE PRICE OF OIL FLOWING TO THE HUGE REFINING

AND PETROCHEMICAL CORRIDOR THAT IS 20 MINUTES DOWN THE ROAD

FROM ME HERE IN HOUSTON, TEXAS?

AS WE REPORTED EARLIER TODAY, WE ARE SEEING SOME OF THAT

IMPACT ON DIESEL PRICES. IN AMERICA, WE LOVE TO TALK

ABOUT GASOLINE, IT IS WHAT MILLIONS OF PEOPLE SEE EVERY

MORNING ON THE WAY TO WORK, BUT THE PAIN POINT AT THE MOMENT

REALLY FEELS LIKE DIESEL WHICH CROSSED THE FIVE DOLLAR

THRESHOLD THIS WEEKEND, WHICH IS A LEVEL WE HAVE NOT SEEN

SINCE 2022 IN THE EARLY DAYS OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT.

TIM: WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP TO DIESEL'S PRICE, THE INPUTS THAT

MAKE DIESEL, DIESEL? HE'S NOT THE HIGHEST PRICES WE

HAVE SEEN, BUT DIESEL HAS ONLY BEEN FIVE DOLLARS A GALLON AT

ONE POINT EVER BEFORE, BACK IN 2022.

BUT OIL PRICES HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN THEY WERE IN 2022, 2008.

ONE ABOUT THIS ENVIRONMENT GETS DIESEL UP TO FIVE DOLLARS A

GALLON? -- ACROSS FUELS, THE BIG'S

INPUT IS ALWAYS OIL. THAT IS THE LARGEST PART OF THE

GALLON COST, GASOLINE OR DIESEL. WE CAME INTO THIS YEAR

ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S.

WITH LOW STOCKS COMPARED TO THE 10 YEAR AVERAGE.

WHEN INVENTORIES ARE LOW, THAT CAN CREATE MORE VOLATILE

ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FUEL. ANOTHER BIG FACTOR IS ALL OIL

ISN'T EQUAL. WE HAVE LIGHTER GRADES, HEAVIER

GRADES, IN WEST TEXAS, WE ARE PUMPING 13 MILLION BARRELS A

DAY OF LIGHT CRUDE.

BUT WHAT IS BEING CURTAILED AND CONSTRAINED IN THE STRAIT OF

HORMUZ ARE THESE HEAVIER GRADES, WHICH ARE GENERALLY

BETTER ALONGSIDE VENEZUELA AND CANADIAN OIL FOR MAKING THAT

DIESEL. THIS CONFLICT HAS AFFECTED THE

BARRELS THAT ARE BETTER AT MAKING THE FUEL.

THAT IS ONE OF THE REASONS WE HAVE SEEN.

SOME HIGHER PRICE SPIKES FOR DIESEL AND GASOLINE. CAROL:

AS YOU AND THE TEAM REPORT, DIESEL'S RISING COSTS WILL

CREATE HIGHER PRICES FOR ANYTHING FURTHER DOWN THE

SUPPLY CHAIN, WHETHER IT BE LUMBER, GREEN PEPPER, CARS.

WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT -- HOW IT FILTERS THROUGH.

HAVING SAID THAT, YOU KICK OFF THE STORY YOU GUYS DO.

AND QUOTE A SMALL BUSINESS OWNER WHO SAYS IT WILL CRIPPLE

OUR ECONOMY. I DON'T THINK PEOPLE KNOW HOW

MUCH THE ECONOMY RIDES ON DIESEL FUEL. TELL US ABOUT THESE

INDIVIDUALS. TELLING ABOUT THOSE SMALL

BUSINESS OWNERS, THE BACKBONE OF OUR ECONOMY, WE KIND OF

LEARN A LOT. NATHAN: IF WE THINK ABOUT IN TERMS OF

NUMBERS, AND THE U.S. WERE CONSUMING 4 MILLION

BARRELS OF DIESEL A DAY, 75% OF THAT GOES INTO TRANSPORTATION.

THAT IS NOT JUST YOUR 18 WHEELERS, TRUCKING, BIG LOADS

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, THAT PERSON WE SPOKE TO WHO SELLS

FIREWOOD IN THE NORTHEAST OF ENGLAND -- NORTHEAST OF

AMERICA, AND SO THE IMPACT WE ARE SEEING OF THIS FUEL HITTING

FIVE DOLLARS A GALLON, IT IS NOT JUST THESE BIG INDUSTRIAL

PURPOSES VIA TRUCKING OR RUNNING TRACTORS, IT IS GOING

DOWN TO MOM AND POP STORES. ANOTHER PERSON WE SPOKE TO IS A

LANDSCAPE CONTRACTOR IN HOUSTON. HE'S GOT TO BUY THE FUEL FOR

HIS TRUCKS THAT CARRIES HIS EQUIPMENT, AND FOR HIS

LAWNMOWERS AND WHAT HE'S ACTUALLY DOING HIS WORK WITH.

TIM: THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE FED

WAS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THIS WEEK AND WHAT WE HAVE BEEN

TRYING TO FIGURE OUT. IF THIS LANDSCAPER HAS TO SPEND

MORE ON FUEL, IF THE PRODUCER OF FIREWOOD HAS TO SPEND

$11,000 A MONTH INSTEAD OF $6,000 A MONTH ON THE FUEL,

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR CUSTOMERS, BUT FOR HOW THEY ARE

SPENDING OTHER MONEY? HOW DO YOU LOOK AT THAT AND THE

WAY DIESEL PRICES RIPPLE THROUGH THE ECONOMY?

NOT JUST IN THE CONTEXT OF THEY GO THROUGH EVERYTHING, BUT HOW

PEOPLE PULL BACK ON OTHER THINGS WHEN THE STUFF GETS MORE

EXPENSIVE?

>> ONE OF THE OF LANDSCAPER COMMENTS WAS INTERESTING, FOR

NOW HE'S NOT ADDING COSTS TO HIS SERVICES.

HE'S NOT ADDING A FUEL CHARGE LIKE SOME MIGHT, BECAUSE HE

SEES IT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN SOME MARKET SHARE.

BUT DOWN THE LINE, THERE IS A POINT HE WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE

TO. THAT IS A MIMETIC OF THE POINT

WE ARE IN IN THE DIESEL PRICES SPIKED, PEOPLE ARE ASSESSING

THEIR OPTIONS AND THEY ARE ALTERNATELY FORCED INTO RAISING

PRICES AT SOME POINT DOWN THE LINE.

THEY WERE NOT NECESSARILY THERE YET. CAROL:

THIS GOES BACK TO THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHEN WE THINK ABOUT

THE U.S. WAR ON IRAN. HOW LONG IT GOES ON.

INTERESTING, BECAUSE ON A DAY WHEN WE HAVE CBS REPORTING THAT

THE ADMINISTRATION MIGHT BE THINKING PERHAPS ABOUT GETTING

READY TO PUT TROOPS ON THE GROUND. DOES THAT MEAN THAT IS A

FURTHER ESCALATION? DOES IT MEAN IT GOES ON LONGER,

OR IS IT A MAIN TO BRING THIS TO AN END?

BUT THAT IS HOW YOU HAVE TO FIGURE IT OUT, ALL OF THESE

BUSINESS OWNERS MUST BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO FIGURE OUT

HOW LONG THIS GOES ON. NATHAN:

YEAH, THE INTERESTING THING IS IF WE COMPARE GASOLINE AND

DIESEL AGAIN, THE CONSUMER CAN CUT DOWN ON THEIR TRIPS.

IF YOU ARE DROPPING YOUR KID AT SCHOOL IN THE MORNING, YOU CAN

TAG ON, THAT MIGHT CUT YOUR WEEKLY MILEAGE.

THE AVERAGE DIESEL CONSUMER CAN'T DO THAT.

THEY HAVE SET TRUCKING ROUTES, CUSTOMERS THEY NEED TO MEET.

THAT IS KIND OF WHY WE ARE SO INTERESTED IN THE FUEL AS A

BAROMETER BECAUSE IT IS A HARDER ONE TO ECONOMIZE ON.

CAROL: NATHAN, THANK YOU. JOINING US ON A STORY OUT ON

THE BLOOMBERG FROM OUR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK TEAM.

REALLY INTERESTING READ. TIM: THIS IS A GREAT READ, IT WILL

CRIPPLE OUR ECONOMY, DIESEL SPOOKS BUSINESSES. CAROL:

WE ARE HEADED FOR A BREAK, LOOKING AT A MARKET WE HAVE

DEFINITELY SEEN A LEG LOWER ON THE CBS REPORT OF THE

POSSIBILITY OF THE ADMINISTRATION GETTING READY TO

PUT TROOPS ON THE GROUND. WE ARE PRETTY MUCH AT OUR LOWS

ON THE SESSION. WE WILL TALK MARKETS IN A

MOMENT.