Endangered Species Put at Risk & Prediction Markets | Bloomberg Law
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This is Bloomberg Law with June Graasso
from Bloomberg Radio.
>> 13 environmental groups are suing the
Trump administration, asking federal
courts in California and Washington
State to throw out the administration's
deletion of the Endangered Species Act's
definition of harm. The deletion allows
developers and private land owners to
modify or even destroy endangered
species habitat without it being
considered harm to the species. Even
though the destruction of their habitat
is the main reason that species become
endangered, an attorney at the Western
Environmental Law Center representing
the plaintiffs, Pete Frost, said in a
statement, "No longer protecting where
grizzlies, salmon, and owls live will
make them go extinct. We're hopeful the
court will clarify what the Endangered
Species Act has always meant." Joining
me is an expert in environmental law,
Pat Parento, a professor at the Vermont
Law and Graduate School. Pat, start by
explaining what the Trump administration
has done here to the Endangered Species
Act.
>> Well, they have just published a final
rule rescending what's called the harm
rule under the Endangered Species Act,
which has been on the books for over 50
years. was first enacted in 1975
in the Gerald Ford administration and
it's been upheld by the US Supreme Court
in 1995 in the case Sweetome versus
Babbot. So now the Trump administration
is saying forget about all that. We
hereby resend the harm rule and oh by
the way we're not going to propose a
replacement. We're just going to say we
don't need a harm rule at all. We don't
need to define the word harm which is in
the statute, right? We don't even need
to do that. So, we're just going to
repeal it. We're not going to comply
with NEPA. We're not going to do an
environmental impact statement. We're
not going to comply with the Endangered
Species Act itself, which requires
consultation. It's internal consultation
before you take an action like this and
produce what's called a biological
opinion to demonstrate that the action
that you're taking will not jeopardize
endangered species or result in the
adverse modification of their critical
habitat.
So, it's crazy on stilts what we're
talking about. You can boil it down to
this. The Trump administration has
hereby decreed that destroying the
habitat of endangered species is not
harmful.
>> The administration claims that this
change would reduce permitting
requirements and compliance costs for
farmers, land owners, and energy
producers.
>> Right. without producing real data to
show that this rule is responsible for
what I guess you would call it
unreasonable cost. I mean it's certainly
true that every law that Congress enacts
is going to impose certain obligations
on people that will in turn require the
expenditure of some money. That's what
regulation is all about. The money being
spent is for a good purpose, a public
purpose, right? You can argue about how
important saving endangered species is.
If you ask the American people, they
will tell you it's really important.
That has been a consistent polling
result over the life of the Endangered
Species Act. From 1973 to today, the
amount of public support for this law is
in the 90% range. Okay. So, yeah. Do
compliance with laws require money? Sure
they do.
>> And is it true that the loss of habitat
causes more species to go extinct than
any other single factor? Yes, it is the
leading cause of species extinction in
the US and globally. The other thing
about it is the Endangered Species Act
is all about habitat. I mean, the very
stated purpose of the law is to conserve
the ecosystems
upon which these species depend. So,
right from the get-go in 1973,
this is really kind of amazing for
Congress to be this ecologically
literate. In 1973, they were talking
about ecosystems. They were talking
about habitat. That was the whole point
of the law. Congress recognized that
loss of habitat was driving species to
extinction. And unless it was both
stopped or arrested and mitigated, more
and more of the species would go
extinct. Right now, 13 environmental
groups are suing in two different
federal courts, one in California and
Washington State. What is the basis of
of their lawsuit?
>> Multiple grounds for all three. There's
three lawsuits now, and there's more in
the works, by the way. They start by
saying the Sweet Home decision in 1995
is still the law of the land. It has not
been overturned. The Trump
administration is clearly aiming to get
this issue back in front of the Supreme
Court in their hope that the Supreme
Court will reverse its decision in Sweet
Home and basically adopt the disscent in
Sweet Home written by the late Justice
Antinine Scalia. I mean, what we're
seeing is almost a resurrection of
Scalia. You know, there's an echo here,
right? Because this is the same strategy
that Lee Zeldon is pursuing under the
Clean Air Act to repeal the endangerment
finding. Once again, EPA, the Trump
administration is saying the Supreme
Court got it wrong in Massachusetts
versus EPA. We don't have authority to
regulate greenhouse gases, and we're
going to get that issue back in front of
the court so they can overturn Mass
versus EPA. Same thing is happening here
with the harm rule. They want to get
this case back to the court in the hopes
that they can get a decision overturning
the sweet home decision. The reason they
believe they have a shot at this, of
course, is because the Supreme Court has
now overturned the Chevron doctrine with
deference to agency interpretations.
It's true that the Sweet Home decision
was based on Chevron because at that
time 1995
that was the framework that the Supreme
Court was using to evaluate statutory
terms that were ambiguous. Right? And
the principle of of Chevron was if the
words of a statute are ambiguous, and I
suppose some might say the word harm is
ambiguous, although the dictionary makes
it crystal clear that it it includes
anything that hurts something. You know,
the interpretation that harm does
involve destruction of habitat, which
causes, by the way, actual injury. The
rule, I didn't really explain it. rule
says habitat modification or destruction
that actually injures or kills a
species. So the test is approximate
cause test. That's what the Supreme
Court said in in Sweet Home. So you know
that it's not an easy test to meet. You
really have to be able to say the
cutting of these trees which will take
down nests of the spotted owl will lead
to actual injury of an identifiable owl.
So the test is stringent, okay? It's not
loose at all, but it is a vital test
because if you don't save nesting
habitat, breeding habitat of species,
guess what? They go extinct.
You spoke about the late Justice Scalia
and the Interior Department said in a
statement that it was reversing a
regulatory overreach not authorized by
Congress and will defend its authority
to honor the law's plain text. Are they
basically saying, "Yeah, we're going to
follow what Justice Scalia said."
>> Oh, yeah. They've adopted the Scalia
descent in Sweet Home Locktock and
Barrel. But here's two problems with
that. number one in Justice Stevens
majority opinion in Sweet Home, which by
the way was six to3 with the late
Justice Okconor filing a very strong
concurring opinion and taking on the
Scalia descent wholeheartedly, shall we
say. So in Justice Stevens majority
opinion in Sweet Home, a majority of the
court agreed that the Scalia
interpretation was not supported by the
text of the law or the context of the
law or the history of the law or the
purpose of the law. In other words, it
was roundly rejected. And they weren't
relying on Chevron for that. They were
taking on Scalia's interpretation and
saying it is not the best reading. They
didn't use those words in those days.
That's what the court will use today is
the best reading test for interpreting a
statute. Right? But the point is again
the majority in Sweden
now wants to adopt. The second problem
here with what Scalia was saying is that
in 1982,
Congress amended the Endangered Species
Act to create what's called the
incidental take permit program. Okay? I
testified in support of that amendment,
by the way. But the point is that
amendment was addressing the harm rule.
It was addressing the fact that the
Ninth Circuit in a very famous case, the
Palea case out of Hawaii involving this
endangered bird on Mono Kia in Hawaii,
the Ninth Circuit had said, "Yeah, the
the harm rule is the law." And yes,
destroying the habitat of the pila is
unlawful under the Endangered Species
Act. And the court, the Ninth Circuit,
ordered the state of Hawaii to remove
the exotic sheep that were being
imported for hunters to shoot because it
was destroying the habitat. So, Congress
was reacting to a specific court
decision, applying the harm rule, and
instead of overturning the harm rule,
which is what the Trump administration
is saying Congress would have done if it
had the chance to do it, instead of
that, Congress basically codified the
harm rule by saying you need a permit
and you need a permit for habitat
destruction or modification. And oh by
the way, to get the permit, you have to
prepare a habitat conservation plan to
offset the impact on the habitat from
your activity. So there you go. You have
two really strong arguments against what
the Trump administration is trying to do
in resurrecting the late Justice
Scalia's descent in Sweet Home and
making it the law of the land. Well,
many of the conservatives on this
supermajority
revere Justice Scalia. That's one point.
And another is that this last term, they
reversed two long-standing decisions.
One, Humphrey's executive, more than 90
years old, and a 25year-old campaign
finance rule, plus effectively reversing
the Voting Rights Act. So, do you have
any confidence that they will follow
precedent?
>> Well, we know of course that uh the
court will do what the court will do
with five votes. I think this one will
be a closer call. I don't rule out, of
course, the prospect or the danger that
the Supreme Court might do what Trump is
asking it to do. You can't rule that
out. But here's the thing. Justice
Roberts in the Loper Bright case which
overturned the Chevron doctrine said
very clearly, "Our overturning Chevron
does not mean that prior decisions of
this court that relied on Chevron are
not still the law. They are still the
law unless and until of course the
Supreme Court changes the law." So the
argument that loper bright automatically
means Trump wins is wrong. It's just
flat wrong on the face of of the
Loperbrite decision. It's certainly true
that if this case gets to the Supreme
Court, there's a risk that it'll do the
wrong thing from the standpoint of
protecting endangered species. I would
be naive to the extreme to think that
you know the Supreme Court is bleeding
over the fate of endangered species. But
on the other hand, this principle which
is called statutory starry decisis when
the Supreme Court has said that a
statute means something specifically
that is a strong precedent. So it
doesn't get overruled with the snap of a
finger or the fact that there's a new
administration in town who doesn't like
the prior ruling. So that's not enough
to get that victory that Trump is hoping
for in this case.
>> I'll ask you the question I usually ask
you, which is, so let's say that there's
a Democratic administration that comes
in next and overturns the overturning of
the harm rule. How much damage can be
done in the remaining two years of the
Trump administration if there's not an
injunction put in place?
>> Yeah. Well, there is going to be a
request for a preliminary injunction and
maybe even a temporary restraining order
right out of the box. The Earth Justice
is handling that one of the major cases
and boy, that's the most formidable
environmental litigating group in the
country. They will leave no stone
unturned. So, the problem is by saying
that the harm rule is no longer in
effect that influences all kinds of
activities that are ongoing. It means
that the Forest Service now, you know,
it's the Trump administration wants to
ramp up timber harvest in in the habitat
of many endangered species, spotted
owls, marble, muralets, you go down the
list a whole bunch, right? So what
happens now in that context of when
agencies still have the obligation to
ensure that their actions do not result
in jeopardy or adverse modification of
critical habitat if the Fish and
Wildlife Service and and Noah with
regard to marine species if they are no
longer engaged in analyzing whether the
destruction of the habitat is going to
result in harm to the species that's
going to affect a lot of the decision-m
that multiple agencies are doing, the
Fish and Wildlife Service won't be
providing them with the kind of
biological information they need to meet
the demand of the Endangered Species
Act. So, they'll be subject to more
litigation over that. Now, the Trump
administration doesn't really care about
that. They're happy to see chaos in
litigation. That seems to make their
day, but the regulated community is not
going to be happy about that. timber
companies that are relying on Forest
Service decisions or BLM decisions for
grazing or mining or any number of
things. You know, if you start tearing
out the foundation of how the Endangered
Species Act is supposed to work,
including looking at the effects of
habitat loss, you're going to
destabilize the the whole regulatory
framework. So, some of this is being
laid out already. I've seen it in the
complaint that Earth Justice has filed.
They've called out specific projects
that will be affected by this decision
right now. Today, I predict we will see
a motion for at least a preliminary
injunction very soon.
>> I think the administration is just
ignoring that endangered species are
something that people care about. No one
wants to see a species go extinct.
>> They will. I think in time you're going
to see more and more maybe backlash is
the word, I don't know, more reaction
from the public over this and and
communities that have seen the value of
the restoration of endangered species.
If you think about the wolf
reintroduction or the fact that the
grizzly bear population has improved,
whether it's been fully recovered is
another question, but they certainly
have improved. And what has that
created? It's created a really robust
ecoourism industry, if you will,
recreationbased. Those gateway
communities around Yellowstone are there
to see the wolves. And that's money in
the pocket of local businesses, local
communities and schools and all the
rest. So, it's not true that restoring
endangered species, you know, is a cost
without taking account of the benefits
that it creates. So I don't think you
can make a case frankly that the
investment in recovering these species
isn't worth it. Quite the contrary.
Beyond the sort of ethical or moral
dimensions of the question, the on the
ground benefits of restoring ecosystems,
which is what the law is all about,
benefits local communities economically
and in many other ways. And Pat, you've
written an article for the conversation
that breaks all the legalities down in a
way that's easy to understand. It's
entitled Why Trump's move to gut the
Endangered Species Act likely won't hold
up in court. A pleasure as always, Pat.
Thanks so much. That's Professor Pat
Pento of the Vermont Law and Graduate
School. Turning now to the prediction
markets, which have gone from obscurity
to being everywhere. There's fierce
litigation between the states and the
commodity futures trading commission
over whether those platforms like Cali
and Poly Market constitute illegal
gambling or federally regulated
financial derivatives. More than 20
lawsuits and cease and desist actions
have been filed by states against the
platforms and the CFTC has now initiated
legal actions against nine states over
their push to rein in prediction
markets. In a case involving a White
House teleprompter operator that's drawn
attention, it's the CFTC doing the
enforcing. My guest is Columbia Law
School professor Joshua Mitz. He's a
leading authority on prediction markets
and insider trading. His new paper is
entitled from Iran to Taylor Swift:
Informed Trading in Prediction Markets.
So, President Trump's teleprompter
operator is on unpaid leave from the
White House after reports that he used
inside knowledge to make bets about
President Trump's speeches. What do we
know about this? I don't think there's
been a lot of detail released, but my
understanding is that he essentially
traded on Kshi and it was basically a
market which paid off. My understanding
was that it's a a mention market,
meaning a market that essentially paid
off when certain certain words or
phrases or text are read aloud and of
course or a statement is made at a press
conference. And of course, a
teleprompter operator would have access
to information regarding what was going
to be said, presumably would have the
transcript of the plan statements, so
would be uniquely in a position to
profit from trading based on that
information.
>> Khi is the one that alerted the CFTC
to what was going on. I'm not sure how
they knew that there was suspicious
activity.
>> Yeah. So Kelshi runs quite a bit of
surveillance on their platform and this
is something we talk about in our paper
the role of platforms to surveil and
police this kind of activity. What they
look for is abnormal trading trading
that seems to reflect some sort of
either you were very lucky or you had
potentially anformational advantage.
Part of Koshi's process is a know your
customer so-called KYC process by which
in order to trade on their platform, you
have to provide certain information
about yourself, where you work, what the
source of your funds are, and so forth.
So presumably, and this is, you know,
really just speculation, but I think
it's consistent with what we've seen,
Koshi would have undergone some sort of
surveillance review for abnormally
profitable trades and then look to see
if there was any possible connection
between the individual and the source of
the information that might be in fact
material to a given market.
>> During the investigation, reportedly the
CFTC alerted the federal prosecutors in
Manhattan. They didn't open a criminal
investigation. And I'm wondering why not
when they have opened two criminal
investigations. One involving a special
forces soldier who allegedly bet on the
capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas
Maduro and a Google employee who
allegedly bet on user searches using
internal company data. I mean, isn't
this similar to those? So for a criminal
case, we're going to need to see more
typically than simply taking advantage
of the information. But what prosecutors
are often looking for is a kind of
conscious awareness of wrongdoing or
sort of obvious departure from ordinary
norms of behavior to where it's just
straightforward to conclude that you
were operating with criminal intent. The
issue here, and I don't have any, just
to be clear, any information myself
about this case other than what's been
publicly reported, but the issue here
may be that I believe it was reported
that the words were relatively common
words or words that may have occurred in
a given speech by random chance alone,
just sort of like words that may have
been used in in the speech regardless.
And that might make it a little bit more
difficult for a criminal prosecutor
because if there's even some reasonable
doubt that the individual may have been
in possession of the information but may
have nonetheless believed at the time of
the bet that they were not actually
using the non-public information, but
that they were essentially wagering on
the same sort of probabilities that
anyone else could have wagered on and
that the likelihood of using a
particular word was sufficiently sort of
well known or it would have happened
anyway, then you know there's at least
possibly a defense that could have given
prosecutors some concern that the
information was not actually used. The
other possibility here is that the
individual may have not necessarily sort
of set out in an intentional way and it
could have been that there was some
other data that we're not aware of which
showed perhaps for example let's say
they were betting on lots and lots of
words and when you look at the totality
of what they were doing the intent
points in a slightly different direction
or at least there's an interpretation
that this particular trade was part of
some broader set of trades.
where the intent may not have been to
use this information. So, if there was
evidence of this kind, and again, I have
no information one way or the other. If
there was evidence of this kind, it
might have given criminal prosecutors
some pause about bringing criminal
charges.
>> Coming up next, the CFTC fights the
states. This is Bloomberg. I've been
talking to Colombia Law School professor
Joshua Mitz. His new paper is entitled
from Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed
Trading in Prediction Markets. These
prediction markets seem to have really
taken hold. They've struck deals with
major sports leagues to provide data
during games. During the Golden Globes
in January, a poly market Chiron flashed
before each award was handed out,
correctly predicting nearly all 28
winners. And I'm just wondering how much
the prediction markets are now a part of
the fabric of our life.
>> If they've become a part of the fabric
of our lives, that's happened pretty
quickly given that these platforms have
seen explosive growth recently. So I
would want to see a little bit more
evidence over time. But I do think your
question is getting at something that
I've observed now for several years,
which is the increasing acceptance of
gamification or speculation, financial
wagering in the form of apps or sort of
digital technologies, which has really
displaced traditional gambling venues in
in lots of ways. People are flocking and
gravitating towards apps which allow
them essentially to bet, gamble, wager
money. Now, you can really go back years
ago, about 5 years ago, to the rise of
GameStop and meme stocks, which was a
kind of more tame and early version of,
I think, what we're seeing now. In the
years since, we've seen crypto being
used, for example, by politicians and
those who are closer to positions of
power or in positions of power
themselves. So I think when you look at
it as a trend, prediction markets may be
the latest and greatest iteration, if
you will, of this sort of financial
gambling, but it's it's really just that
I think the underlying trend is that
we've gotten much more comfortable with
speculation and wagering. And some would
say in a way that's similar to the
1920s. That's that's not my argument.
Others have made that argument. But
there's a real question as to what it is
in our society that has made these sorts
of speculative bets much more socially
acceptable maybe than they were in the
past.
>> So we have many states and the CFTC
locked in a a battle for who's going to
control this. There are over 20 lawsuits
and cease and desist actions have been
filed by the states against these
platforms. But the CFTC has initiated
legal actions against nine states. I
mean, what you just described sounds
like it's gambling. And why shouldn't
the states be regulating it?
>> Well, gambling as a kind of economic
activity is much broader than the form
of gambling that's been traditionally
regulated by state gambling laws. So,
you could look at the stock market as a
whole as a form of gambling, trading
frequently. You could look at uh
commodities futures trading in other
areas. If you want to trade silver
futures or gold futures or oil futures,
those are all commodities or derivatives
of commodities. And one can argue if
you're basically wagering that the price
is going to go up or go down, you're
placing a bet just like a highfrequency
trader would be. And none of that
activity would be regulated by state
gambling laws. So it's a bit tological
to say that gambling should be regulated
by states because states have regulated
gambling. The question really is what
forms of gambling have and should be
under state jurisdiction and which forms
belong within the federal regulatory
scheme. I think one very important
difference is that Khi and Poly Market
these prediction platforms operate much
more like two-sided financial markets
with market participants essentially
trading with each other or with
liquidity providers rather than players
who are interacting with an
establishment. And I'm not suggesting
that's necessarily an operative legal
differentiator, but I think if you look
at the economic nature of the activity
on these markets, there is I would
suggest perhaps a much closer similarity
between an oil futures market and a
prediction market. And they both involve
essentially matching bids and offers.
And the platform is serving as an
intermediary for this contract. It's to
be sure I think to your point there's a
lot of friction right now because this
activity unlike commodities trading or
futures trading really does feel much
more like the sort of consumer gambling
that has been traditionally regulated by
the states.
>> Is there a split among the courts about
how these should be viewed?
>> Well, I think a couple things. I mean,
I've been speaking in economic terms. I
mean the the legal question in these
cases really concerns preeemption and
the language of the commodities exchange
act and the whether or not state power
to regulate gambling falls and covers
particularly sports related contracts.
Not every contract on a prediction
market necessarily has the same legal
standing under state gambling law. So
contracts involving sports games in
particular seem to fit squarely within
the traditional domain of state gambling
laws and activity, gambling activity at
the uh state level. Sports contracts are
kind of your quintessential example.
Some of the other contracts like you
know crypto derivatives for example, I
think it's a much harder argument. So
what we're seeing right now in the
circuits is some grappling with the
exact language of the commodities
exchange act which defines the CFTC's
jurisdiction and what the CFTC is really
trying to do is to preserve maximum
jurisdiction and essentially to say look
I mean there's no question that certain
kinds of prediction contracts which are
themselves derivatives of let's say
crypto or other financial instruments
there's no question at least most of
those are within our authority
So why would that not also be true for
gaming or other kinds of, you know,
contracts just because they happen to
involve areas that were traditionally
under state regulation? And it's really
more of a statutory interpretation
question before the circuit courts right
now. But I think fundamentally as an
economic matter, there are some
differences, but it probably will
ultimately have to be resolved by the
Supreme Court. And I would expect that
if I had to put a prediction on it that
uh uh the CFTC will win in the end
>> in light of the fact that the the Trump
administration is all in on the
prediction markets. Is enforcement by
the CFTC enough?
>> Well, what we talk about in our paper is
that enforcement here can occur on
multiple levels. So there's actor or
contractbased enforcement where you say
here are some particular trades. we're
going to look at these trades. We're
going to dig into an individual's
trading history and bring an enforcement
action against that individual or in
extreme cases perhaps criminal
indictment. But there's also platform
level surveillance and platform level
regulation. And while it's true that the
Trump administration has been relatively
pro- innovation or pro sort of a
hands-off approach when it comes to
financial innovation in the crypto
space, digital asset space and now to
some extent in the prediction market
space. It's also true that these
platforms have been at least KI and to a
certain extent polyarket US as well.
They're US armed. they've been really
stepping up to show that they are
enforcing uh these sorts of insider
trading fraud and manipulation rules on
the platform. And we've talked about
insider trading, but it's not only
insider trading. I mean, some of these
smaller markets in particular are
amendable to manipulation where
individuals can control the outcome of
the market. So outcomebased manipulation
and we know that in many cases you know
it's something like over 90% maybe as
high as 99% of the participants on these
platforms are losing money. So you know
there needs to be adequate disclosure
regarding the risks of participating and
and so forth. Platforms I think have
taken some actions that are helpful in
that direction in terms of both
combating misconduct and protecting
consumers. But there's more that can be
done there and that seems to be an area
where maybe there's some openness on the
part of the Trump administration to sort
of enlist platforms in kind of inducing
a more informed and and hopefully fairer
and safer market for consumers.
>> Tell us a little more about your paper.
>> Well, the paper looks systematically at
Poly Market and identifies over 200,000
episodes of potentially informed
trading. And we basically identify
across a wide range of we have five
criteria that we employ to identify what
we consider potentially informed trading
that we don't necessarily conclude
reflects the use of material non-public
information. We recognize that some of
this activity might be in fact informed
trading which is lawfully acquired. But
we think that what it shows is that the
prediction markets are in fact
facilitating the systematic exploitation
of information that is non-public and
there's a number of consequences which
follow from that. So we talked about
surveillance at the platform level. We
also think in the paper talk about some
of the proposals. There have been some
legislative proposals to outlaw uh
certain uses of information, certain
kinds of contracts. We think that, you
know, some of these proposals are in
fact moving the ball forward. Others are
essentially summarizing existing law.
I'll just say part of the problem here
is not only having strong legal rules,
but thinking about enforcement because
when actors are trading globally using
anonymous identities on the blockchain
and so forth, the problem is just as
much a practical one of identifying
who's engaging in the trading and who's
sharing the information as it is
figuring out what the rule should be. So
we talk in the paper about just the role
of as I mentioned platforms not only in
surveillance but in cooperating and in
fact we really need a global perspective
because you know it can't be enough for
the United States to take actions on its
own. We really need to see international
cooperation especially when there are
transnational networks which is
something that we've seen in insider
trading more broadly. I mean this is how
insider trading rings are brought down
and so that same sort of approach needs
to be taken for the prediction markets
as well.
>> Thanks so much for sharing your thoughts
with us. That's professor Joshua Mitz of
Columbia Law School. And that's it for
this edition of the Bloomberg Law Show.
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This episode of Bloomberg Law covers two primary topics: the legal challenges against the Trump administration's rollback of Endangered Species Act protections, specifically the definition of 'harm', and the complex legal and regulatory landscape of prediction markets. Expert guests analyze the potential impact of rescinding habitat protection rules and the ongoing jurisdictional battle between states and the CFTC over regulating platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, noting the inherent risks of informed trading and market manipulation.
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