Jason do you want to go up to the

bedroom knock on the door and wake jamat

up where is he you're in his house go

get him let's go he's at the office he

went to the office he's not here oh you

went to the office we're trying to find

jamath at the moment oh here's jamat

okay are you wearing my goddamn sweater

what is what is is that my you're in my

house is that my no I am so tilted where

is my wife what the what don't worry

about your wife no oh my

God this port is great where is hold on

I'm calling

take off my okay don't touch my wife oh

my Lord oh my Lord Sheed so tilted tted

don't you worry am you know your cashmir

sweater it's so so

soft is so tiled get out of my house but

we'll be done at 1 o' so I'll see you

then please let me know you have lunch

in the garden yes please lunch in the

garden wear's something simple don't

don't get something simp great is that

the cashmere sweater with the Rhino horn

buttons it is you know what though I did

some shopping while I was here I did a

little shopping so I just I filled up

you know I just these uh these asops are

great because I don't have these at my

house I have Ivory soap so I got a

couple of these

froming but you know what I agree this

sweater is not so great I think I'm

going to Swit don't touch that sweater

Jason this one's incred I cannot him J

don't put it on I won't put it I won't

put it on but you know what this port

I'm not so sure Sean Sean yes

um's great but um any other options we

do have a delicious ice wine for you

come around here let's present let's

present you're not on my

chef Sean um SE so this is it looks like

a deep pull 19 86 Chateau CET uh BAC

what I mean this looks like it's worth

opening I mean it it's it was in the

rack that said don't open right Sean yes

sir all right

so and yeah let's just but you know what

pour half out because I like the bottom

half the texture so just pour half into

the garden here the um the spinach and

then I'll take the bottom half thank you

please take off my sweater oh my God

this is so

brutal let your winners

ride Rainman

David and instead we open source it to

the fans and they've just gone crazy

with

[Music]

it did you have a good night's sleep at

chim's house how did you sleep last

night I slept so good let me tell you

something I'm I will compare I sleep

here tonight the lady of uh sax Manor

just texted me and she would like me to

stay there tonight so you know when I'm

in the valley I get a lot of different

invites I have to spread the wealth so

I'll be dining with with the saxes

tonight and I may be staying at saxes so

that willare away sax hide the asop soap

from the bathroom I'm hoping he doesn't

have ASAP I'm hoping this is like when

he stole the papy vanwinkle from my

plane remember that that was good yeah I

mean it was it was three qus of a bottle

it's just sitting there I mean when are

you gonna drink it SX how do you prepare

for jcal coming over to your house to

visit and spend the night I mean what do

you do think anything that's not bolted

down is basically

it's like a a gift it's like a

freebie how do you think I got that love

seat in my kitchen I got that love seat

off the kitchen that came from Sax's

designer yeah yeah I just had two guys

my brother Josh came we took it out the

back it was fun we took it out the back

if I'm a guest I'm leaving with

something why don't you want to moderate

today you're on fire just moderate the

show well no I was just I was going to

be traveling and I wanted to do a good

job and I you know I thought maybe you

you would love to get your chance at

moderation so lead us off here Fearless

uh J freeberg so that is the

announcement to start the show Jason

taking a week off for moderating yes

gonna be a besti guesty gonna be a

participant on the panel this week and

we took this off so I'll be moderating

this week we're going to do a couple

housekeeping points first off very

excited to announce that we are doing

another live event after the success of

the summit during September we had great

content we had great parties everyone

had a great time but a lot of people

said They wish they could have been a

part of it so we are going to try and do

more Live Events so we have pulled one

together very last minute but we are

going to make it

incredible Saturday December

7th in San Francisco around 5:00 pm we

are going to do the all-in Holiday

Spectacular at the Palace of Fine Arts

in San Francisco it's going to be

incredible tickets are going on sale

today at allin.com

events not going to want to miss it

there's going to be a really fun show on

stage with us and some guests followed

by open bar food trucks DJ Casino party

it should be a really great time a real

fun Winter Wonderland after party after

the stage show and so we're really

excited to have folks come and join us

um at the Palace of Fine Arts on

December 7th it's gonna be awesome you

guys excited yeah excited yeah all right

so I have a question yeah is our

attendance required at this thing I knew

that was coming I have no desire to this

you don't want to be called a party

everybody in the world wants to do

something except SX I thought I was

signing up for a podcast I don't know

why I need to do all these events this

is literally a two-minute drive from

your house in San Francisco we are going

to load you in a van Jal and his

brothers are gonna come and grab you

throw you in the back drag you down

there we're gonna prop you up on stage

for a couple hours and then we'll put

you back in the van and you can go home

the good news is we might uh drink some

Tequila sex we might have something to

kill us so we got something to look

forward to and you get to see your

friends you get to see your friends

that's worth it right say yes David now

this is where you say yes no comment he

says no com for those of you listening

I'm happy seeing you guys through Zoom

you know we don't we we can minimize the

pic was his favorite holiday of all time

what's your favorite holiday SX pandemic

can we have that back pandemic he

celebrates the pandemic for six months

every

year it's part of his new ritual to not

see anybody for six months bring back

the pandemic Sox are you serving Wu

tonight I mean that's possible I'm gonna

tell him not do anything that nice

though for jcal keep it simple burgers

and dogs you put your order J J what did

you put your order in well you know I

talked to that I talked to Chef and um

he said morel's not in season but we we

are on the tail end of black ruffle so

we have that locked in but we're too

early for Morales obviously that's a

spring let let's give feedback about

last night's dinner Sean's I mean let's

be honest a picana is an underrated cut

of meat it's a very people say it's like

a serviceable meat but when cooked

properly with proper technique it will

stand right up there with a riye or a

New York strip it's the best but people

don't P never even heard of

that but it's like it's like it's the

Brazilian word for it but it's like a

specific cut of meat Sean did it last

night honestly David I'm telling you

it's better than any other cut of meat

you could get if it's properly made Sean

crushed it yesterday but it is bananas

it's so

good steak than ribey I like it more

than ribey 100% I like it more than the

New York strip that's terrible filet

terrible no fat it's it's um it's got a

a a fat cap on it which you know

sometimes be a little overwhelming for

people but Sean did a great job of kind

of meeting us halfway so it wasn't so

fatty just a nice layer of fat crisped

perfectly cooked to Perfection carrots

were great um was great I could I had no

notes you know I talked to Sean after I

had no notes so okay what the app part

was ridiculous too oh my burn sugar

apple burnt sugar apple tart what you're

a New York state guy I'm a New York

state guy well done

yeah what oh oh oh that's dis are

savages I think you just lost like I

think you just left three swing States

you

want if you're gonna do something I

would go to the New York I'm fine to

deal with the New York in and opava but

well done David SS that is unacceptable

shout out to Raul's and uh balazar two

best steo pavs in Manhattan in my

estimation let's get started welcome to

why don't we call an audible tonight and

go for Ste oav yeah just throw out the

uh the misot and the wagu and let's just

redo it boys welcome to the all-in Pod

this is episode

201 and we're gonna kick it off by

talking about what's going on in markets

which is one of the kind of most

interesting challenging enigmas of the

day or or maybe it's not maybe it's

pretty simple but there seems to be a

diversion in assets that is pretty un

ual that hasn't been seen in in some

time and a lot of Market commentators

analysts economists are kind of trying

to figure out what's going on and why

the first is that bonds are falling so

US Treasury

yields as a result of bonds declining in

price have spiked up we nearly hit the

10year yield dropping as low as

3.5 in September obviously leading up to

the the the big 50 bit rate cut and as

of this morning we're seeing the 10year

yield over 4 and a quarter at the same

time we're seeing gold prices Spike so

gold is typically a safe asset and gold

has moved considerably as you all can

see here from the start of the Year

where was around 2,000 an ounce up to

2750 an ounce an incredible runup one of

the best performing assets of the year

and then finally in a market like this

you would typically see pain in equities

but we've seen the opposite the S&P 500

is up considerably has been been on this

endless runup alltime highing at alltime

high where's Bitcoin buddy and let's

pull up

Bitcoin nobody cares about gold show

Bitcoin well there's a lot more assets

that have moved into gold than Bitcoin

but here's Bitcoin

at today this morning who picked that at

the beginning of the

year was it hold on one

second up give us your read on what's

going on there's a there's another

couple of nuances here that I think are

important the US dollar

complex is thriving which means like the

US dollar is

strong backend yields are

rising and then another thing that I

look at is this thing called put call

skew so basically like on balance how

are people hedging in the short

term and in the bond market they own a

lot more puts than they do

calls I think that this is the entire

Financial infrastructure of the

world repositioning itself from what was

a tossup election to a trump

win and when you look at

why it's because when you forget the

candidates themselves for a second but

if you think about the actual policies

and where the spending will

occur I think that there has been a very

clear

decision that the Trump economic plan

will drive better growth than the Harris

plan and if you think that there is more

growth

coming typically what will come with

that is a little bit more

inflation the risk premium that you're

going to need in a high growth

environment is higher what is risk

premium that

is how much do I want to invest for a

risky asset vers as a safe asset and so

all of these things are coalescing so so

I think that the shortterm takeaway that

I have just looking at all of this data

is that in

the economic distribution of outcomes

this is now tilted overwhelmingly to a

trump win and this is not an emotional

statement or what I want to happen but

this is just an observation how how tens

of trillions of dollars

of self-interested financial actors have

now repositioned their risk and if Trump

wins which it looks like he's

increasingly going to do and if he wins

by the margins that it looks like it's

going to do you're going to see a lot of

these things exacerbate Gold's going to

go up more probably Bitcoin will

probably go up the short-term economic

upside for the economy will probably get

reflected in higher Equity

prices but it'll also push out long-term

rates the inflation picture becomes a

little bit murkier

but I think that that's what's happening

I think that the the financial markets

are pricing in a trump wi sorry just to

understand better why is gold go up and

a trump win I think in the short term

what happens is that you see more

economic growth but in the medium- term

inflation goes up and so you want a

hedge right so it's it's more about a

durational balance of assets so in the

short term you'll be long the things

that will generate earnings but in the

medium to long term you want to head

yourself so Bitcoin and gold I think

will trade that way well let's up the

video clip from Paul Tor Jones Nick

given all the things you're saying are

you off buying gold and Bitcoin and and

I think all roads lead to inflation

we're going to end up if you so but does

all roads lead to inflation therefore

gold is a good investment is Bitcoin a

good investment to you I I I'm long gold

I'm long Bitcoin I think Commodities are

so ridiculously under owned so I'm long

Commodities I think most young people

find their inflation Hedges via the

NASDAQ that's also been great it's

probably some combination I probably

have some basket of gold Bitcoin

Commodities and NASDAQ something like

that and i' would own zero fixed income

if I had my cash it'd be very short term

SX well I think as you heard right there

the key line that Paul tutor Jones said

was all rad lead to inflation I mean

that that's what's basically happening

right now is that the market is afraid

that inflation is not whipped and it's

going to resurface and the FED may have

to Pivot from the pivot and raise

interest rates that's why he doesn't

want to own any

treasuries separately another Financial

Legend Stan drucken Miller gave an

interview where he has something like a

20% short position meaning 20% of his

Holdings are short us treasuries right

now so he's betting that there are

long-term inflation pressures and that

rates are going to have to rise and and

you're seeing again that since the FED

cut rates on September 18th by 50 basis

points that the 10e T bills yield has

risen by 60 basis points so I I think my

interpretation is that this is less

about the election and more about the

markets not liking the fed's ray cut on

September 18th I think that in hindsight

it was too big we discussed it on the

show and I pointed out that the 50 base

point cut was contradictory in the sense

that the only two times in recent

history where the FED began a rate

cutting cycle with a 50 basis point cut

was in 2001 and 2008 which were on the

verge of pretty big recessions and so

the FED felt like it needed to cut

dramatically in order to help Stave off

those recessions but that was not Pal's

rhetoric what pal said is the economy

was doing very well so what I said a

month ago was with the economy is doing

really well why w't you just tiptoe into

the rate cutting cycle with say a 25

base point cut and then see how the

market absorbs it and get another

month's inflation data well we've gotten

another month of inflation data and it's

showing that these are not huge moves

but it's showing that inflation in uh

was a core CPI was just a little bit

higher than expected so again the market

is concerned that inflation is not

whipped that the FED may have been

overly precipitous and how it cut cut

rates and then the other thing is they

just not like the long-term fiscal

picture of the US one other chart we

should bring up is interest on the

national debt what you can see here is

that it has gone absolutely parabolic in

the last couple of years our interest on

the debt what like 1.3 1.4 trillion a

year 1.35 trillion run rate yeah $3,500

per

American pre and it's something like 20

to 25% of federal revenue now is going

to Debt Service and this continues to

increase now I think there was an expect

that we'd be able to get this line to go

back down once we had rate Cuts right

because if inflation's licked and the

FED can lower interest rates again and

we can get back to a 2% 10year bond

which is where we were a few years ago

then all of a sudden that National Debt

Service becomes a little bit more

reasonable right I mean you can you

could service that debt at half the cost

but now it looks like that may not

happen so just to to wrap this up I just

think that the market doesn't like these

fundamentals of the US fiscal picture

you've got rapidly increasing debt

service costs you've got an inflation

picture that is murky and may not be

going away and the bond markets are

starting to price in higher interest

rates for longer and this is why Paul

tutor Jones is saying all Rose lead to

inflation and this is why Dr Miller is

shorting us

treasuries jcal do you think either

party uh or either candidate in this

presidential election is going to drive

a different outcome in terms of federal

spending and the long-term impact on

deficit and as a result

rates well if we look at previous

performance as an indicator of future

success the answer is no they're not

going to cut spending most of the

reports out say they're going to spend

another 10 trillion in the next

Administration independent of who you

vote for and I think that's actually

what you have to think about here is

where does all that money wind up right

it it's certainly not going to trickle

down and what's probably going to happen

is it's going to find its way into

equities and that's why these equities

are so high is because people are

recognizing correctly that if we do

spend another 10 trillion and go another

10 trillion into debt that money winds

up somewhere where does it wind

up government salaries contracts and if

we get a tax cut as well that's going to

Goose and I think one party will do do a

tax cut and spend 8 n 10 trillion the

other party will spend 10 trillion and

maybe raise taxes a little bit it's

going to net net into the same place and

then I think what we'll see on top of

that is what I think could be

cataclysmic contraction in White Collar

employment in the United States over the

next four to 10 years next two

administrations and that's going to

exacerbate this problem and create I

think some social tension because we've

had record low unemployment and so even

though people feel bad about the economy

generally and and some of that is

related to which parties you know which

party you're part of and how you

perceive the economy and all this data

but just brass tax you know we had the

lowest unemployment of our lifetime for

the past five 10 years and it's been

absolutely fabulous and salaries have

gone up and this is going to result in I

think a little bit of austerity measures

coming at some point probably won't come

in this next Administration but

certainly the one after that is going to

have to do some bell tightening and

we're going to have to address this

issue because spending you know

everybody in America having to pay their

share of that interest alone is

$3500 I mean let that sink in you're

going to spend for every member of your

family $3,500 a year in interest that's

your part of it take the 1.3 trillion

it's just a lot of money and um if that

is the case uh it's going to create a

massive bubble in equities again and

then if you look inside of the big

companies three or four years ago Uber

Airbnb Google and Facebook had more

employees or the same number of

employees they have now while growing

those companies are all growing 20%

year-over-year

so the earnings and the Topline of these

companies continue to grow while they

have a static team size this is like an

extraordinary thing we haven't seen so

the two pieces here that we haven't seen

before is what happens when you put

another I don't know 20 trillion dollar

of debt into the US economy and what

happens when companies the big ones stop

hiring and they just become wildly

efficient and become wildly profitable

and this will be a

renters renters you

know story where people who have

equities and people who own property are

going to do fabulous over the next 5 to

10 years and then the 40% 50% of people

who don't are going to really be feeling

a pinch well it does depend also on how

lever they are so just to give you a

sense total us household corporate and

government debt which include state and

local and federal so household debt in

the US about 18 trillion corporate debts

about 11 trillion state and local

government debts 3 trillion obviously

the federal debt 36 trillion that adds

up to a whopping $68 trillion of total

debt across um the US which if you

assume a 6% average interest rate you

know you got corporate debt and

household debt so it's a little more

risky so it carries a higher rate that

means we're spending about $4 trillion a

year of an economy that's only 29

trillion a year to service the debt just

to pay the interest on the debt so 15%

of every dollar that trades hands is

going towards interest payments on

existing leverage on existing debt it's

a highly leverage system and if you look

around the world this problem is not

just a US challenge Global Leverage is a

problem that's now becoming a crisis for

uh countries everywhere the UK is

waiting on a big budget proposal this

week higher taxes is going to be in

there to make up for a budget deficit

which is currently

4.4% of GDP the UK economy is only

growing at 0.9% a year France has a

major budget crisis underway right now

they're struggling to reduce their

deficit from 6% down to 5% of GDP and

they've got skyrocketing bankruptcies

74% of people that can work in that

country are working and they have and

that's because of large social programs

that support the balance 7.3% technical

unemployment and uh they're raising tax

on 440 firms 440 companies in the

country that make a billion or more in

Revenue with a quote temporary tax

there's a 4% searge on income over 500k

that's going into effect second home

real estate taxes and so on France is

struggling to figure out a way to

generate Revenue to make up for the

shortfall in Brazil there's a major

budget crisis States owe $130 billion to

the federal government there inflation

is accelerating at

4.6% rates are going to go higher and

longer complicating other economic

growth opportunities in the country

so um this is becoming kind of a global

leverage problem which might explain the

flight to Safety in assets like gold and

Bitcoin and um is going to present a lot

of real struggles for every global

economy now the question is does the US

dollar maintain its Reserve status

because ultimately I think it is

inevitable that the Federal Reserve in

the United States is going to need to

buy the debt they're going to need to

monetize the debt which means printing

money there is no one else to buy the

debt so pull up the China chart Nick

China's historically been the biggest

buyer and owner of us treasuries but

here's what's happened in the last

couple of years it peaked at about $ 1.3

trillion about 10 years ago and then

recently particularly starting around Co

they began selling down and have been

selling down at an accelerated Pace

today China is back to the level they

were at nearly 15 years ago in terms of

their treasury Holdings and they have

publicly declared that they are selling

off us treasuries and buying gold

instead so the big buyer of us

treasuries has kind of left the market

or is leaving the market who does that

leave well at the end of the day the

Federal Reserve has been the kind of

buyer of Last Resort and if they end up

buying treasuries that's where we have a

problem with too many dollars and

inflation kicking up and so it feels

like a lot of the trades in assets are

what's going to benefit from the

inflation and it's going to be gold it's

going to be Bitcoin and in some cases

because you're pumping more money in the

system it's going to be equities and uh

that might explain why equities are

moving up as well where do you guys

invest here I mean chamat like do you

care about how the Market's position or

how you're positioned in this election

right now and based on how we're seeing

markets trade and what these kind of

macro indicators are telling us or you

just business as usual heads down invest

and build as you always have yeah I I

think that you can't trade these

things and any attempt to do it is

probably a level of false decision where

you're going to lose more money and

there's a lot of slippage and even just

trying to execute it I mean at the

beginning of the year I said the

breakout

asset was going to be

Bitcoin I think it looks like it's going

to be the resounding inflation hedge

asset for the next 50 or 100

years so that die has been cast I think

you're seeing the last vestages of

people using gold as a rational

economic insurance policy but I think

the future is specifically Bitcoin on

that

Dimension so I guess you could trade

that you could speculate on that I think

the question that I've been grappling

with is in my scenarios what happens if

K Harris wins what the markets do and I

actually think it would reverse a lot of

these Trends over like the last month

and a half like I said I really do think

that there's a repositioning rebalance

component to everything that's happening

right now so I don't think there's much

to do unless you have a very specific

specific bet that you want to

make I would just keep my head down and

keep building are you the same place are

you are you Jake K are you guys trading

at all and I mean I I think trading is a

mistake time in Market is better than

trying to time the market and as I said

before where is all this money gonna

flow all this spending ass class right I

mean that's that's the key question

right like do you change what assets you

own I don't think so and I I I do think

there's another thing that's worth sort

of unpacking here because when you do

see people feel like the economy is

working against them all kinds of

interesting movements start cultural

movements Etc and I think that's what

we're seeing in this election is people

who believe in capitalism and free

markets and people who don't people who

believe in free speech people who

don't people who see themselves as

victims victims and then other people

who see them as creators

and I really study a lot of like what

young people are doing and I don't know

if you guys are watching sort of the

anti-war movement or the fire movement

which is financial Independence retire

early a lot of young people now are

looking at financial markets whether

it's Robin Hood or coinbase or prize

picks whatever Market it is young men

especially and they're saying I need to

control my destiny I need to this

capitalism is not working for me I need

to own equities I need to make trades

and I need to retire early and have

experiences because the capitalist

system is broken to some extent and then

then there's another group of people who

are just anti-work and there was this

term back in the day called neat not

employed not being educated and not in

training basically the people who are

called the

patient and we're 10% off that maybe

more maybe we're at 61 or 62 I think a

lot of people are going to give up

because the debt is going to be so

crushing that the logical thing to do if

you don't think you can get out from

under it might be to move in with your

parents or two or three other people

tighten your belts and enjoy life and go

skiing and and and go have experiences

and a lot of young people are electing

to do that in other words they're oping

out the American dream sorry to your

point the one thing the one thing that I

realized with a lot of young men that

Jason I think you're you're really

hitting the nail on the head is a lot of

them now do not view the job that they

do as their only path to economic

independence and if anything they may do

a job but then they're actively trading

on the

side something crypto options whatever

they're on Robin Hood they're using

coinbase because it's almost like

they've separated in their mind that the

job they do will never give them the

financial Independence they want and so

instead they're going to do that job

because they like it hopefully they love

it but then separately they're going to

go and speculate to try to make money

it's a really interesting thing because

I had always been taught you earn your

wealth through the job you have and so

if you wanted to make more money you

have to ladder up and do something

different yeah so that that's not true

that that idea has been sort of

decoupled now that's a really

interesting change in how people

approach work I call them gen bet like

they're the generation that believes on

there's just like subset of them it's

not all of them a number of them are

just quiet quitting and they just don't

believe in capitalism and then there's

this other group which are like trying

to get control I call them gen bet

because they just want to bet on

themselves and you know and if they

don't get wrecked by the financial

markets CH trading options you know and

and doing PR sorry the other the other

thing I'll say just in recruiting a

bunch of people at 8090 over the last

three or four months is there is an

enormous difference that I have seen

psychologically in the people that are

25 and older versus the people that are

25 and under and I'm calling 25 as a

rough number but there are kids that are

18 19 20 21 years old that are off the

charts good they're motivated they're

hungry they're like let's get after it

and they are honestly different in the

way they approach their job than folks

that are in their late 20s and early 30s

these folks I think they're the first

generation who didn't go into debt in

college and didn't buy into that like so

they might the the Millennials ahead of

them might might have like taken the

bullets you know yeah the folks that are

in their late 20s early 30s and I'm not

trying to generalize or disparage but

they lack a level of motivation again

generally speaking that the youngest

folks in the workforce have and that

also that people in our generation sort

of have so they're sort of sandwiched in

between a very different way of

approaching work and as a result they

stand out and I don't think they're

standing out for all the right

reasons well the majority now of young

people the number I believe and Nick if

you could pull this up 57% of Jen's

years want to be influencers as their

primary career now that the idea of

working a job is almost like a secondary

option the primary option that everyone

would thri strive

for is to be an

influencer and this number has grown

considerably continues to grow and in

fact if you look at the the rest of this

report this was out of a did you say 50%

of gen zers aspire to be influencers

correct okay 57% as their career or just

they want to be influential and build a

brand around themselves I wonder that's

what they want to do for a living that's

what they would like that's what they

want their paycheck to be

interesting they want to be independent

and I don't think they believe this they

believe the system's rigged against them

and why wouldn't you think the system's

rigged against you if you went 150 or

250k in debt and you couldn't get a good

job job sax as a successful influencer

how would you advise the youth on their

career

choices well played yeah look I think

that believing you're going to be an

influencer is like believing that you're

going to be like a rock star or movie

actor something like that pro aete pro

athlete yeah it's like a one in a

million

shot it's just not a great thing to want

to design your career around because

it's just very unlikely to happen so I

think you're better off

finding a career that you're passionate

about but where you're actually adding

value the world doesn't need 50

something per of the population become

influencers that's kind of crazy it it

reminds me of a line from Fight Club

where Tyler Duran says we've all been

raised on television to believe that one

day we'd all be millionaires and movie

gods and rock stars but we won't and

we're slowly learning that fact and

we're very very pissed off and that was

Gen X that was J X yeah so that was us

they headed they're headed for a uh a

fight club like realization about this

SX how do you advise a young person on

there there's this temptation to go and

spend all this time making content and

pursue that as your career and that's a

life opportunity for you now it's more

free and open they would think than

perhaps being a movie star or a

basketball player used to be so I think

it's it's just uh important to recognize

that if we ourselves are influencers the

the reason why we're not being

hypocritical is that none of us here

with the possible exception of JAL ever

set out to be influencers right we did

something different we actually had a

career and we did something interesting

and then as a result of that maybe

people want to listen to our pod the

idea that you can just go be an

influencer without having actually done

anything interesting what's your

credential for that so what I would

advise is just people should go do

something productive and then you know

if it leads to other people wanting to

hear from them then that that's good but

out to be someone that other people

should listen to without having any

experience or having done anything

productive in your life it's like why

should we listen to you yeah one thing I

I did build and sell two out of my three

businesses over the

years but there are tens of millions of

people making money in the long taale as

a content creator and it's low thousands

of dollars in some cases per month but

if you combine that with people who are

gig economy workers and they don't

believe in the system because they

worked really hard they got this job at

Google they went to the office then they

got laid off and nobody cares about them

now they're getting dragged back into

the office they still have these

payments and then they look at this

other system where hey they started to

get 10,000 followers they started to

make $11,000 a month then $3,000 a month

they actually see a path to being

independent of a system that has no

loyalty to me and that's what I hear

from folks and I think it's great if

we're not going to be loyal as like

corporations to individuals those

individuals are now responding and the

anti anote to that poison of just being

laid off randomly or being dragged back

to the office after you told you could

work from home all that stuff they now

believe hey I can be independent and

then you have to fight to get my

services and I think that's what this is

about if and and well we're g to talk

about Starbucks later and I think that's

a big part of the Starbucks problem

having a side hustle makes you

antifragile you you have other sources

of income and you can tell your boss to

f off and that's what young people are

doing I've seen it seen people just quit

jobs and just say you know what I've got

other ways to make money and I don't

have a big burn rate and so that's smart

for young people to do that and I think

my advice would be to build your brand

be as independent as possible and to

make things in the world and show people

what you made that's the best thing you

can do can I can I give you the other

side of this before we go back to macro

yeah imagine that Tom Brady who really

respected bill bellich but I wouldn't

say is super fond of him they're not

super close but imagine that Tom Brady

had a side

hustle and let's just say he drove an

Uber and he made enough money where when

things got hard and he didn't get enough

playing time he opted out would that

have made Brady the person he was I

think the answer is

no I think there are a lot of people who

started companies after being in very

difficult and challenging environments

that stretched and pushed them beyond

their comfort zone and they lived in

that world for years before they started

something

if all of a sudden the answer is let me

have an escape hatch so that I can

egress off whenever things get hard I

don't think you're going to accomplish

much of anything because I'm not sure

that that is the kind of boundary

conditions that push greatness upon

people so I would just keep that in mind

as well I'm not sure the side hustle

solves anything it may actually allow

you to quit before you actually get to

the other side of something and realize

what you're capable

of yeah I think that's a great point you

kind of have to mentally burn the boats

when you do a startup it's Cortez you

got to burn the boats yeah I agree with

that your life your life needs to be

like Cortez you got to burn the boats if

you keep the safety net with you as you

move through life all the time and you

never put yourself at risk you're never

going to figure out what you're capable

of and then you're going to look back at

some point and the odds that you're

going to be disappointed are higher than

if you actually just tried and lived it

it and just said okay you know what I'm

really glad I'm on myself here to wrap

up the the conversation about where

markets are headed SX I think we were

going to just do a quick round the horn

anything that you've repositioned in

your portfolio around investing or asset

classes that you shift as we Face kind

of looming budget crises the election

cycle I'm trying to sell every single

SAS startup I have in secondary markets

and you know how many bids there are for

these SAS companies negative one bid H

that's interesting I had a couple of my

startups

get get offers I've had three or four

secondary offers in the last two weeks

I've had to like deeply consider and

they weren't like 75 what kind of

companies let's see two were SAS and

then one I can't say because it' be too

easy to guess but the Bottom Feeders

went from offering like an 80% discount

to now a 25% discount so you know you're

not allowed to sell your your shares and

all in right I'm trying I'm trying Brad

G's bought 7% so far so I'm I'm I'm

quickly offloading to G much as I you

just you just super tilted freeberg

there looking he's laughing but inside

just the s% he gets 16 minutes per you

know what if he if he'll moderate I'll

have him I mean this is moderation going

okay or should I jump in and save the

show he should write all in a get fit

memo just on the question of you know

how do you reposition so first of all

the easy one to avoid is is treasuries

right I mean do you really want to

accept a 4.2% yield for 10 years to own

a US Bond and with the looming inflation

that is still out there or the looming

de crisis that might be out there so

that's probably the easy one I think the

hard one is around equities because

equities are at an all-time high part of

the reason why they're an all-time high

is because the FED telegraphed that we'd

have big rate Cuts this year remember at

the beginning of this year they said

there'd be seven rate

Cuts those expectations have kept coming

down I think we had one I guess we had a

double rate cut last month and we were

supposed to have one more 50 bit rate

cut this year I have to wonder if that's

still going to happen and more to the

point if you believe Dr and Miller and

Paul tutor Jones we might be in for a

extended period of higher interest rates

for longer and that will be bad for

equities equities normally are inflation

protected in the sense that those

companies can just raise prices over

time to keep up with inflation and so

equities are generally a pretty good

thing to own in the face of inflation

but if we're in for a period of high

interest rates longer than anyone thinks

that's going to be bad for equities well

I would just argue one thing which is

except in the scenario where you believe

the only inevitable path is for the

central banks to monetize the debt

meaning the central banks step in to buy

the outstanding treasuries that need to

be issued which both supports inflation

but also introduces Capital into the

system and that's where both equities

that that's where you could see a

scenario where equities and gold go up

while fixed income goes down to to have

higher rates so it's effectively a money

printing indicator or signal now my

personal position on this going into

this new era if it manifests as the

markets are telling us it will is kind

of where Paul tutor Jones is I think

that Commodities have and you know gold

is a commodity everyone talks about it

as being the safe haven asset but there

are other Commodities out there that are

much more fungible and used in in

production Cycles to make food to make

energy to make goods and a commodity

linked businesses meaning businesses

whose revenue or profit grows with the

underlying commodity price growing will

outperform other businesses they're

going to struggle to raise prices or

struggle to pay higher labor costs or

struggle to in to deal with higher cogs

whereas commodity link businesses that

effectively just make a margin on the

Comm example a mining business so

businesses that do mining of of Natural

Resources

um businesses that trade agricultural

Commodities so those businesses usually

make kind of a fixed margin on the

underlying commodity price and they do

they do well in these Cycles so anyway I

think that Paul tutor Jones rather

because if you own a commodity it's not

a productive asset it's not generating

yield for you but if you own a business

that's making a profit and just seems

like it's easier to own Bitcoin that's

one asset but the Bitcoin isn't a

productive asset right I mean so that's

one one way to kind of build a portfolio

but I I personally like owning

businesses where they're doing something

and making value and in the process they

earn a profit especially if the profit

grows with an underlying inflationary

pressure on Sak's point about the equity

markets there is this thing that people

look at called the buffet indicator

which is the total value of the Wilshire

5000 divided by GDP he mentioned it in

2000 and said it's probably the most

reliable measure of where equities are

and where they're about to go

and there is this long run mean when you

calculated going back back you know 50

60 years and every time it's had a

short-term High there's been a pretty

meaningful retrade so in 2000 in the

Doom bubble in 2007 during the great

financial

crisis during covid and now we've

actually set an absolute new high in

this thing which again to the extent

that you believe in indicators like this

would kind of tell you that at some

point here equities are

probably going to be cheaper before

they're going to get more expensive this

is definitely the high end of normal

Nick if you pull up the PE chart this is

the obvious one to look at is you know

not just the how dramatic the stock

market Peaks are but you know the the

price earnings ratio and it's uh at the

high end of normal at like I don't know

if we're at

25 um PE ratio on average David's right

how can you get

4.25% when you have all of these risks

looming over the next 10 years because

you know Howard marks

his letter uh he he had an investment

letter that he published this week and

it was so great because it was so

elegant in its Simplicity which is

investing in an equity and investing in

a bond are just completely opposite to

each other even though they're treated

and spoken as if they're the same thing

and his concept is like people need to

understand exactly what the terms fixed

income means it means that you will get

something reliably over a long period of

time time and so the question is whether

is that fair knowing everything you know

today and I mean all of you guys have

said this now for feels like years and

when you show these charts of like

ballooning debts and

deficits is it reasonable that the

market clearing price for government

issue debt over the next decade is 4% I

mean my gosh it could easily be 6% it

could easily be seven or 8% that is very

scary totally the big difference between

a bond and a stock is that the bond

provides you with like you said fixed

income payments and those would be

horribly debased if you have high

inflation a stock gives you earnings and

a company can always raise its prices

and so in theory it should be hedged

against inflation but both a stock and a

bond are similar in the sense that

they're both hurt badly by Rising

interest rates right because the

discount rate is higher so this is where

I'm just not sure about equities if we

do head into a new regime of higher

rates longer does that hurt equities

even though equities normally are pretty

good inflation hedge so I just don't

know the answer to that I do think we're

headed for a period of constraints I

think that since 2008 we basically were

living in a sort of a consequence-free

environment where the FED could keep

interest rates at or near zero the

federal government could spend as much

as it wanted we we you know we sort of

normalized emergency conditions first we

had trillion dollar deficits as a result

of the 2008 GFC and then those got

normalized then we had2 trillion doll

deficits as a result of covid and those

got normalized and then the Fed was also

doing QE which means that it's buying

the US government's own bonds thereby

propping up us bonds and the bond market

so now that's normalized that's

normalized yeah keeping interest rates

lower than otherwise would need to be to

attract those Bond holders so for about

15 years we kind of normalized emergency

conditions and consequence-free spending

by the US government I think now we're

we may be entering an era of

consequences and what that means is that

you can't push on one aspect of the

federal government's balance sheet

without giving up on something else so

in other words if you're going to allow

higher inflation basically monetizing

the debt the bond markets are going to

make the government pay higher interest

rates on its debt right because they not

dumb so we're going to be in a world of

higher interest rates which means that

equities get clobbered real estate gets

clobbered the value of people's homes

gets clobbered so there's real

consequences from that or you can tackle

inflation you know which means that the

fed's going to have to tighten but then

I think what that means is the federal

government's going to have to get

religion around spending they're not

just going to be able to spend all of

this money we've seen this austerity

measur in Europe right were pretty hard

for people in Greece and Spain and to

get their heads around and I think

Americans are going to have to get used

to we can't just spend and give handouts

constantly on the equity side though

there's also the concept sacks that you

can cut spending and increase earnings

and that that's well within your control

as a CEO and board and that's exactly

what we've seen coming out of Co and I

said it here a couple years ago I think

the earnings are going to do well

because people have this other lever and

they can just turn the dial and reduce

spending and increase earnings and it's

like oh that's painful but it's not so

painful that it's not worth doing and so

corporations have gotten religion around

cost cutting and austerity and

increasing earnings the question is and

individuals have to so they're pushing

out buying new cars and uh spending on

travel so then what happens when does

the government get that austerity that

companies and individuals are forced to

do and that's the problem you keep

talking about freeberg is you know this

entire election cycle is about who can

give more free enough with the free like

somebody's got to be an adult in the

room and say we don't have any more free

left I think this is what the market is

saying is that regardless of who gets

elected here they've both kind of shown

that the deficit will increase not

decrease uh under their presidency and

look maybe that is positioning to get

elected and maybe there is a kind of

more rational underlying economic

Advisory Group that is counseling a

different path than what they are

presenting and I I hope to whoever is

listening that that is the case for both

candidates uh very deeply hope if you

look at what happened in Argentina so

we've talked a lot about Javier mle he

came in as president and um his

austerity measures by absolutely

slashing government spending has reduced

monthly inflation from 25% to around you

know three and a half percent so he's

really kind of brought inflation under

control but the consequence of that is

that the economy has now shrunk because

the government is spending less that

means there's less revenue for certain

businesses there's less income for

individuals so they spend less so the

economy has shrunk by 1.7% in the last

quarter and um unemployment has spiked

so now unemployment is at 8% in

Argentina and it's rising fast so for

the US to actually execute this policy

when we have a fundamental mandate for

the Federal Reserve to keep unemployment

low means that something is going to

have to break you can't keep

unemployment low and inflation low if

federal spending gets too high and

federal debt gets too high so we are in

a condition now where federal debt is

too high and if we cut federal spending

too fast we end up seeing unemployment

Spike and if we don't we're going to

have inflation those those are the

two paths we could walk just one thing

to challenge what you say because I

actually I disagree with it is that I

don't think that people view the

spending package of both candidates the

same because the dollar is not created

equal so there are certain programs that

the Republicans have proposed that are

markedly different than the programs

that the Democrats have proposed even if

the numbers look the same and so this is

why I think you have to look at how the

short-term markets when they thought

Kamala was winning behaved versus now

the short-term markets short-term mean

how do you hedge this risk and that is

completely changed and this is why I

mean over the last 30 days you've had a

complete and absolute repositioning of

the front end of the yield curve in

terms of risk and who's making the bets

and I think why is because the the Trump

package whether we agree with him or not

is viewed as more stimulative to

long-term economic growth which is why

the inflation risk is being hedged out

versus The Comma risk which is they're

just going to spend money now on top of

that what I would say is

this may be

where Elon Musk being able

to streamline the government could be an

incredible gift for us as well as our

children and our children's children and

why is that it's because if there's this

sort of Damocles hanging over us

constantly of billions and trillions of

dollars of wasteful

spending he is probably in a position to

show us that we have spent decades

spending more and getting

less and now we can run the ab test

where we spend meaningfully meaningfully

less cut regulation and if we actually

get more you will have the proof and

That Could set us on a long-term path of

being more judicious in how we spend

money and I think that we deserve to run

that experiment somehow to just go back

to your your definition of GDP it's true

that if you cut government that might

cut GDP because GDP includes government

spending however one could argue that

although technically that is how the

definitions work that by cutting

government you actually unlock resources

that could be used by the private sector

and that ultimately it would lead to

more efficiency but also stimulate the

private sector and I think that argument

is particularly true when you've got an

economy running of Full Employment so

you know if we had lots of unemployment

then cutting all these government

workers would be very painful but if

you've got an economy that's doing quite

well and there's a lot of job creation

going on then it's a good time to

actually cut government because the

private sector can reabsorb these people

we should use the fact that we still

have that we have a good employment

picture to make these painful Cuts now

as opposed to waiting until it would be

far more difficult best point I've heard

in a long time that's a great Point sex

give us the election update what's going

on are we going to

get your guy in office is it going to be

uh vice president Harris what's the

sense of what the polls are telling you

of what the markets are telling us

what's your read on where we're at all

the data is basically pointing One

Direction which is a trump Victory and

by data I mean the polling I mean the

prediction markets and then the early

voting numbers so if you look at the the

polls there were two new polls by

mainstream Media One The Wall Street

Journal yesterday said that Trump was up

three nationally

and I think CNBC had a poll this morning

saying that Trump was up two nationally

that's very good because that's the

popular vote that's a popular vote so if

Trump is winning the popular vote it's

Landslide most prognosticators say that

because the Republicans have a slight

Electoral College advantage that Harris

would need to win the popular vote by

more than 2% to have a chance at winning

the Electoral College so if Trump is

winning the popular vote then it's a

landslide

second area is if you look at the

state-by-state polling Trump has been

advancing pretty much in every

Battleground State for the last couple

of weeks if you use RCP Trump is now

ahead slightly in every Battleground

State and the momentum is all towards

Trump and then the final data point is

around early voting in states where they

have this early voting and put out the

numbers the Republicans are tracking

well ahead of where they were in 2020

now there's still a question of you know

do this mean that Republicans are just

shifting their votes to voting earlier

and then they'll do less well on

Election Day there's always that chance

but right now if you're a republican

it's what you want to see and if you're

a Democrat it's definitely not what you

you want to see yeah and the essay that

Nate silver wrote that was published by

the New York Times yesterday said it's a

5050 tossup either candidate could win

but my gut tells me it's going to be

Trump he's kind of indicated that's

where you know as a guy who's obviously

been a big prognosticator says the

Market's headed jel you think saaks is

is right on this anything for to mention

prediction markets prediction markets

have moved very very sharply in favor of

trump it's almost two3 oneir now in

favor of trump so there's been a huge

move among betters that Trump is gonna

win on poly Market yeah poly market and

then Ki as well do you think it's over

jcal I'll go with Nate I mean I think

Nate's

probably the best thinker on this who I

think puts a lot of into it if he says

it's 50/50 with a slight advantage to

Trump I think I would go with his gut

but he's saying don't trust anybody I

don't trust the prediction

markets and I think the prediction

markets are closing that Gap as we get

closer because they are easily

manipulated poly Market is only offshore

right the US market is not allowed to

participate in poly market so it's all

foreign investors now of course

Americans could be putting money

overseas somehow and and using foreign

accounts to to place these bets I'm

guessing if you were a sharp and you

really want to make money that's what

you would do so I don't know what

percentage of it it was it was reported

this morning that a French Trader has

bet $45 million on Trump on poly Market

that he is the whale he's a French

national with quote extensive trading

experience he's not quote manipulating

the market he just really is trying to

build a big position so he sounds like

he's a pretty active Trader that uh made

the big move but it's a crypto-based

site so you you get the benefit of like

you can track some amount of this on

blockchains and then eventually find the

person but because it's crypto as well

you can also hide yourself pretty well

with tumblers and other systems so I I

would discount poly Market uh a bit it's

probably not as Extreme as it seems but

it does seem

like kamla has not helped herself with

the interviews they haven't been great

and um you know it it is a tossup and so

it's any surprise any October surprise

come in I mean there have been a few

attempts the last couple days I mean it

seems like the rhetoric for 24 hours

there have been some really gnarly ones

that we shouldn't give it I don't think

we should give any freedance too but

some Republicans have been coming out

talking about like a really gnarly one

about the Republican side and I mean

it's not much more gnarly than other

things that have been said about Trump

already and judgments that Trump is

against him already for $100 million so

it's in that vein but I do think that

that looks to me like it's cap and I

think there's going to be a lot of fake

news maybe even deep fakes that come out

you know in the last week or two so I I

think people should not trust anything

they see on social media be very careful

with that information I'll tell you guys

my kind of view is like things seem to

be getting more inflammatory leading up

to the election here it's like we've got

12 days left or or whatever it is and

the the rhetoric and the tonality of the

stuff that's being said is getting so

nasty on both sides

and um I just worry more about the

reconciliation reconstruction phase that

needs to happen in America see it on

both sides is it equal on both sides you

think that's your

observation

um I like I you know I think like Trump

leaning out the window of McDonald's and

it was I I mean I laugh pretty hard when

he was like someone said to him when

they interviewed Trump when he was

serving french fries and he said

something like I've now worked in

McDonald's 15 minutes longer than kamla

has and then they one of the reporters

said well why do you think she would lie

about that and he leans out the window

he says because she's lying kamla and

you know it's a funny joke that's his

quip he makes fun of everyone but I

think the whole thing about making fun

of everyone it's such a different tone

and a different rhetoric then I think

what's going to be needed because

imagine if she wins and you know he's

painted her as being you know a liar and

crooked and deep State I mean look I'm

you can possibly compare that to what

the Democrats are saying right now which

is that Trump is literally hit

call him a fist she called him a fist

she said it's democracies on the line

and obviously when you say something

like that when you say that the

fundamental system of the electoral

process is on the line it implies that

if he wins We've Ended democracy that

will inevitably lead people to feel like

we are in a place

of civil chaos and I don't think that

anyone's going to feel good coming out

of this how do you guys think we kind of

deal with a like the election outcome

here one side or the other I mean half

the country's gonna hate the president

and half the country is gonna hate where

where we are and how we sit as a country

and half the country is going to think

that democracy is over I mean one half

is going to feel like this is the end

and it's it just a temporary thing and

everyone reconciles and we all like get

back to work and the election's over and

whoever wins

wins I think unfortunately the

mainstream media is responsible for

giving roughly half the country a

psychosis about Trump because they are

pushing out this rhetoric non-stop that

he's a fascist that he's Hitler they

keep putting out all these fake stories

and they are basically training people

or indoctrinating them that he's just

like threat to democracy I was having

dinner last night with someone who's a

Democrat who pretty much gets all their

information from mainstream media and

she's like terrified of this it's just

not who Donald Trump is it's a it's

ridiculous hyperbole but if you're

locked in that media ecosystem and

that's all you hear you really are

frightened by this so I think that the

media the media's irresponsibility the

way that they don't report honestly and

that they Jin up these threats has

really terrified half the country do you

think that the Trump trump is Hitler

rhetoric indicates that the Democrats

feel they're lying I mean that's like

pretty par for the course what's so

horrible about that I mean you could

make the argument that she's lied about

a lot of things as Anderson Cooper

interrogated her quite well just

yesterday on that town hall he pointed

out that she had said 50 times that

Trump's was a stupid idea and now she

appears to be in favor of it so I think

that accusing your opponent of lying is

pretty par for the course for a

politician what's not part for the

course is saying that your opponent is

literally Hitler and a fascist that's

just going to a whole different level of

rhetoric okay jamat do you think we're

in a nasty State and we're going to be

able to get out of it after the election

and I think we're going to be fine okay

I'm actually pretty optimistic because I

actually don't think it's going to be

that close I mean right now it's looking

like maybe Landslide is too strong a

word but a solid victory for for Trump

that's what the polls are showing that's

the prediction markets are showing

that's what the early voting is showing

and if you look at all the other data

points right now it's showing Trump

winning pretty handily the other data

point that we haven't talked about is

just how these campaigns are acting in

the final stretch if you look at the

Trump campaign is pretty much Steady As

She Goes you look at the comma campaign

and they're in this throwing spaghetti

against the wall mode they're back to to

kind of the dark Brandon type messaging

where the reason to vote for us is

Trump's a fascist this is very different

than their messaging when they made the

switcheroo from Biden to Kamala right

when they first made that switch they

said okay let's get away from this dark

Brandon threat to democracy type

messaging it doesn't seem to be working

let's emphasize KLA Harris as a change

agent as a transformational candidate as

a candidate of joy and positive vibes

and they did get a big bounce in the PS

because of that the problem is that over

the last couple of months that sort of

Bounce in the polls has worn off as

Harris has not been able to explain what

she would change she keeps getting asked

in all these interviews what would you

do differently than Joe

Biden Anderson Cooper just asked her

that yesterday for like the 19th time

and she still does not have an answer to

that question and so the problem she has

is that the sort of veneer they gave her

as this change agent has kind of worn

off and she seen as a continuation of

Biden and the public does not want a

continuation of Biden and so now it

feels like they're frantically trying to

figure out how to reposition they're

back to the to the the anti-trump sort

of hysterical messaging which didn't

work it wasn't working three months ago

when they made the the switcheroo so I

tend to think that if you look at the

behavior of this these campaigns it's

pretty easy to see which one feels

confident and uh and which one is in a

panic okay Jal if you could go back in

time

and you were kamla's adviser when she

became the

nominee what would you have advised her

to do differently than she has done in

this campaign today I would have had a

speedrun primary and I would have let

democracy play out that was the big

mistake when when the Democrat if the

Democrats lose I think they'll look back

yeah 100% but and and then in terms of

thinking about why people believe that

Trump is an existential threat to

democracy I encourage everybody who's a

fan of this podcast to go back to

episode 16 of the all-in podcast and

that's the episode where we all reacted

the week of January 6th and we all had

great consensus amongst us that we

thought this was one of the most

disgusting horrific days in the history

of the country and that

Trump was trying to overthrow the

election results and that he was doing

so in a non-democratic fashion now I

know some people have re underr it or

changed their positions but encourage

you all to pause this episode and go

back and listen to our very thoughtful

discussion on episode 16 of the Allin

podcast because we were scared as well I

think that things happen in a moment and

you have to have enough compassion to

say you react in a moment but then you

also have to have the intellect to

separate yourself from the things that

happened learn more and possibly and

potentially change your mind I don't

want to be defined by a thing that I

said in a moment and I won't do that to

other people

in that moment I thought what happened

was really terrible and then since then

I've got to know the person and I don't

think that he actually incited much of

anything that's my belief yeah and

that's fine that's your belief but I do

think there's another group of people

agree with your original assessment yeah

well I think that those people need to

also rewrite the way I did because I'm

not really want to flip for random

reasons but that's not the point the

point is I think that if you still

believe what you believe then then you

should tell people to listen to you said

yeah okay but there are L listen to what

sa said and listen to what free said I

thought we had a very productive

discussion when it happened I think

people have memory hold it what you're

trying to say which I I partially

disagree with is those beliefs have

changed over time and I think it's it's

more balanced for you to say that that's

a point in time and if you believe that

that point in time still exists that's

fine for you to say that but I think

that's the way that you should say it

the other thing that I would like to say

about this election which I find really

interesting is we are in the part of the

cycle now where the side that's losing

is going to

panic and I think it's happened a couple

times but I would just remind everybody

we have run the ab

test we know what the presidency is

going to look like under Trump except

you get a real vice president plus RFK

plus Elon Musk whether you like them or

not but my point is I think you need to

consider that you're getting four for

the price of one and if the other side

if Harris wins you mostly

know what the trend will be because

you've seen the trend under four years

of

Biden the second thing is I think it's

interesting to see that when you get

into the home stretch the losing side

tends to turn on itself because they

start to play protectionism for their

own

careers and there's a lot of stuff that

I think you can consume

that starts to show that and I think

that's just an interesting observation a

lot of the tried and true most reliable

media

sources that I think were trying to

navigate as much as possible for a pro

Harris

presidency are starting to push back in

a way that I find a little surprising I

think the CNN town hall yesterday was

one of those moments for me where even

people like David Axelrod a little bit

throwing kamla Harris under the bus I

didn't expect that at all

so I think it's just important to

observe that these things are happening

I would agree with that we're going to

make it through whatever hold on let me

just give one thing to to your point

jamat since you know I am challenging

you with that episode 16 call

out I do hope that whoever wins we all

support that person to do the best they

can for all Americans and that's always

been my commitment and I did it the last

two times and I we will survive this one

I don't think we'll survive two or three

of these Cycles if we spend 10 trillion

each time just

you know since um Jak you're referencing

an episode that I participated in said

said things I mean look I think that the

goal of the mainstream media has been to

try and keep us in the heat of that

moment for four years I mean if you've

watched MSNBC for the last four years

it's like j6 is occurring every single

day I mean this is all that they talk

about but I think like jamas said we

have learned a lot of things since that

day I didn't know for example that

Twitter had censored president Trump's

tweets telling all of these people to go

home that basically he said to protest

peacefully and then when they rioted

that he actually published tweets to try

and tell them to go home so that was new

information and that what that came out

remember at the beginning of the whole

primary cycle Trump did that town hall

on CNN with Caitlyn Collins where he

dramatically pulled the piece of paper

out of his pocket with the tweets and

started reading them that was a lot of

new information for people and I think

that gave him a different picture and

then I think one other point that I

think is important is that imagine if

the Press had tried to keep us in the

Heat of the Moment of the summer of

20120 riots the George Floyd Floyd riots

then we'd have a very different

perception of which party was in favor

of riots because Tim Waltz was the

governor of Minnesota when those riots

occurred he did not want to send in the

National Guard Trump did and then K

haris tried to raise money for bail for

an organization that was bailing out

some of these protest ters and riers out

of prison so if the media was so

inclined they could portray KLA Harris

and Tim Waltz as the party of the Riots

of the summer of 2020 I think at the end

of the day that both those takes are

propagandistic and they happened four

years ago and it's certainly a piece of

information that voters can take into

account but it's only one piece of

information and there's a whole lot of

other issues and policies in this

election and I think at this point

everything that happened four years ago

is kind of priced into the stock and

what voters want to know about now is

what would you do on the issues what

would you do about immigration what

would you do about inflation what would

you do about the economy and when you

look at the polling on those issues that

voters say matter to them Trump has a

decisive advantage and KLA Harris cannot

explain what she would do differently

than Joe Biden David Axelrod word solid

City that's what he said last night

which was very shocking that he would

say that totally that is throwing her

under the bus but it's also just

preserving his own credibility because

it's hard to look but this is my point

Anderson Cooper now has to preserve his

own credibility you can only prop up a

candidate so long and then at some point

you have to prioritize your own media

career and I think Anderson Cooper last

night had to start to push back that's

what when everyone turned on Biden yeah

when that one night when everyone turned

on Biden after the debate all the

journalists who had been covering Biden

for so long that it was obvious in their

face the whole time they suddenly had to

be like okay I guess we got to admit now

now he's not really

there I think I think in one important

way KLA Harris has been set up to fail

here because on the one hand she wants

to distance herself from Joe Biden's

record but on the other hand she won't

say what she would do differently so

she's in this kind of like never

Neverland this this limbo yeah that's

right but that's also not her fault

that's the position the Democratic party

put her in and this goes back to what

jcal said we should have run a primary

they should have run a primary for sure

I think they could have had a better

candidate but also I think to go back to

fre B's question this is a little bit of

a premortem what should they have done

differently I think you either defend

Joe Biden's record or say what you would

do differently you can't be in this

limbo State and you know Joe Biden's got

to be in the white house there and

gritting his teeth like wanting to get

out on the campaign Trail and defending

his record because I think Joe Biden

thinks he has a good record and there

are things you could say in favor of

that record I mean I personally don't

think it's great but you could talk

about the Full Employment picture you

could talk about the fact that yes we

have had 9% inflation but now it's down

to 3% I mean there are things you could

say I mean he Market Equity markets are

an all-time high I mean he signed a lot

of legislation that he obviously

believed in so the Democrats do have a

record to run on it's not a record that

I personally believe in but it's

certainly one that I think you could

make an effort to defend and I think

Biden if he was the candidate would be

defending that record and it's very

awkward to have a candidate who was part

of this Administration who will not

defend that record who distance herself

from that record but won't really say

with any detail or conviction what she

would do differently that is just a

losing proposition and I think Anderson

Cooper exposed it more than Brett Bearer

last night because Anderson Cooper had

the time Brett Bearer only had 26

minutes and Brett Bear was seen as

adversarial whereas Anderson Cooper is

fundamentally a friendly interviewer and

when she can't answer those questions

for Anderson Cooper that's when you know

you're done by the way we've said this

now

consistently almost

monotonously now for about two or three

months she has to go into these swing

States and answer about four or five

critical

questions and and I would just

say this is still the problem so if she

wants to try to close this Gap in the

next 12 days and have a legitimate

chance of winning she I think there's

still 12