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Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook?

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Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook?

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948 segments

0:07

Okay, Patrick. Thanks so much for being

0:09

here. Welcome to Startup School.

0:11

>> Great to be here.

0:13

Harj and I first met 20 years ago and um

0:17

uh he

0:19

um we started a company together. I was

0:21

going to give away the introduction.

0:22

>> Yeah, I I thought this was my interview,

0:24

but keep going. You're doing a good job.

0:26

>> Well, we started a company together many

0:28

many years ago and

0:30

uh I learned a huge amount from Harj. So

0:32

it's a it's really fun to do this.

0:33

>> All right, let's

0:34

um

0:35

Well, actually I mean speaking of that.

0:36

So when I think when I first met you 20

0:38

something years ago

0:40

at the time your most impressive

0:41

achievement I would argue was Chroma,

0:43

your dialect of Lisp.

0:46

>> Any Lisp programmers here?

0:49

Oh, wow. Okay, that was um I think I

0:51

heard one whoop, which is more than I

0:52

expected. Um but uh yeah, I I really

0:55

liked Lisp when I was in high school.

0:56

>> Yeah, so what I was going to ask is um a

0:59

prolific 16-year-old today could

1:01

presumably just like prompt Claude to

1:03

write their their Lisp dialect.

1:05

Would you would you advise them to not

1:07

do that and still still do it? Is there

1:09

Is there any value in such things?

1:11

>> I don't know. I wonder a lot. Um

1:15

Yeah, like I was saying on the one hand

1:17

uh

1:18

it used to be really fun to write all

1:19

this assembly and machine code and to

1:21

optimize your instructions and make

1:22

layout in memory and everything and now

1:24

we don't have to do that anymore.

1:25

Compilers do it for us. We don't mourn

1:26

it too much. And so maybe in the same

1:28

way we shouldn't mourn source code. We

1:30

should just transcend the plane of uh

1:33

instructions to Claude at all, but um

1:36

but

1:37

emotionally I miss it.

1:39

>> Um

1:41

How about I you think just like as I've

1:43

been hanging out here um

1:45

with these students like they're so like

1:47

maybe the question behind it is many of

1:48

them are just wondering what should they

1:50

be learning at college? Like what is

1:52

sort of in this sort of AI world like

1:54

how much

1:55

how much should they be trying to learn

1:56

and derive from first principles and how

1:58

much should they just outsource to the

2:00

to the AI?

2:01

>> Right. Um,

2:03

I mean, my model of this is, um,

2:07

is cache.

2:09

Um, you know, the c h not an s h, where

2:12

Jeff Dean has this, uh, famous set of

2:15

numbers that every programmer should

2:17

know, uh, bandwidths and latencies and

2:19

just kind of relevant constants you

2:22

should have a reason about as you as you

2:23

build systems. And obviously, you know,

2:25

thinking of building any system or

2:26

distributed system or whatever, like,

2:28

all lookups and all, you know, relevant

2:31

bandwidths between different, um,

2:33

components are are are very different,

2:34

right? Uh, and you know, retrieving

2:36

something from L1 cache is very

2:37

different from retrieving from RAM is

2:38

very different from retrieving across

2:39

the network or whatever. And I think

2:40

it's like that with knowledge. Well,

2:42

fine, yes, you can ask the agent or

2:43

something to

2:45

compute something for you or to look

2:46

something up for you or whatever. That's

2:48

a hell of a lot slower than knowing it

2:50

in cognitive L1 cache. And you can have

2:53

way more round trips in your brain than

2:56

you can, you know, muttering through,

2:58

you know, super whisper or typing it out

3:00

or whatever. And so, I think, even

3:02

granting the full capabilities of the of

3:04

the models, I feel I still think there's

3:06

a a pretty, like, I think for for a long

3:09

time to come, uh, neuronal lookups will

3:11

be will be much faster.

3:13

Um,

3:14

and

3:15

and then, you look if you look in

3:17

revealed preference, uh, at what uh,

3:20

companies themselves are doing, whether

3:22

they're companies like Stripe or the

3:23

labs or what have you, um, there still

3:26

seems to be an enormous premium on

3:28

cognitive ability. And so, I wouldn't

3:32

I I I I think, um, renouncing that

3:35

before there's evidence that we've

3:38

saturated, uh, those benefits would be

3:40

premature.

3:41

>> Um, I mean, are there are there specific

3:43

things that maybe you personally, either

3:44

personally or as uh, CEO of Stripe, um,

3:48

you still you purposely choose to sort

3:49

of do yourself and like retrieve from

3:51

your own cache, um, even though like the

3:53

agents would probably do a

3:55

reasonably good job. Um

3:59

I still I still write myself. Like I I

4:03

um

4:03

I

4:05

I don't

4:07

I I both philosophically but also uh

4:10

specifically, substantively, uh dislike

4:13

the writing of the models. I mean, it's

4:14

very interesting, right? Because these

4:15

can prove the Jacobian conjecture, you

4:17

know, whatever. Uh and so clearly

4:19

they're capable of these monumental

4:20

feats. Um but somehow

4:24

I still haven't read the LLM essay that

4:28

I found super compelling. Now, maybe

4:31

it's just very hard to like RL limit

4:32

that domain because the you know, the

4:35

utility function or something is kind of

4:36

hard to define.

4:38

Um

4:39

but

4:40

yeah. Um

4:41

I I think writing is a pretty I

4:43

interpersonal communication and writing

4:45

I think are so very fundamental and so

4:46

being able to reason sensibly in the

4:49

multi-dimensional space of reality. And

4:51

in some

4:52

kind of indescribable way, I feel like

4:54

the model is still kind of deficient at

4:55

that. And so I've never I've yet to

4:57

send, you know,

4:59

every tool is now trying to prompt me

5:02

with, you know, pre-written uh

5:04

suggestions, whether it's, you know,

5:06

Gmail or

5:07

uh apparently WhatsApp just rolled this

5:08

out. Um and I think I've still sent zero

5:11

of those in my life. No.

5:12

>> Um

5:13

How about so if you talk talk about the

5:15

Stripe story, uh the early days in

5:17

particular a little bit, uh

5:19

you were at MIT, then you left to start

5:21

Stripe.

5:23

How did you think about that decision?

5:25

And obviously we're in a

5:27

stadium full of college students. How

5:29

should they think about it? How do you

5:30

How do they know if it's the right

5:31

decision for them to

5:34

uh leave college early and go start a

5:36

company versus stay?

5:37

>> Yeah, well, I I think I have the

5:39

slightly unusual distinction of having

5:41

dropped out of college twice to start a

5:43

company. So, um so maybe one thing to

5:45

know is that it's not totally trapdoor.

5:47

Uh you can you can drop out and and in

5:49

fact return.

5:50

So

5:52

I dropped out after my freshman semester

5:54

to

5:55

start this company

5:57

with with Harj. That was super fun. And

5:59

then after a couple years of that, went

6:02

back, did another year

6:04

at MIT and then dropped out again to to

6:06

start Stripe. Um and

6:09

you know, I am when I went to college,

6:11

probably like a lot of people here,

6:13

I

6:14

um

6:15

I had this vision of my life and

6:17

involving becoming an academic and I

6:20

really like physics and I thought, you

6:21

know, I'll do all this physics stuff.

6:22

It's so cool. I'd read all the Feynman

6:24

books,

6:25

all of this.

6:27

And

6:29

I guess I am

6:32

Well, growing up in Ireland, I hadn't

6:33

realized I hadn't thought much about the

6:34

possibility of startups. Hello to the

6:37

[laughter] other Irish folks here.

6:39

And

6:40

um

6:41

And I mean, way back then in the sort of

6:44

you know, pre-Cambrian era, startups

6:46

were definitely much less you know,

6:47

well-known even on campus and so forth.

6:49

You know, when I was dropping dropping

6:50

out, people thought it was super weird.

6:52

Um

6:52

I think um

6:56

You know, overall

6:58

um

6:59

if you enjoy college, I

7:02

I would actually you know, I I I think

7:04

there's no harm in in finishing. I I I

7:07

felt this real sense of urgency, which I

7:09

think in hindsight was a bit

7:10

unnecessary.

7:12

Um if you but if you don't enjoy

7:14

college, just you know, whatever, it's

7:15

not your your thing. It's not what

7:16

captivates you. You don't really want to

7:18

learn all the physics things or

7:20

whatever.

7:21

Uh there

7:23

You know, I think a lot of parents think

7:24

that dropping out is very risky and

7:27

impune your reputation for the rest of

7:29

your life and so forth. And as far as I

7:32

can tell, nobody has ever cared. So I I

7:36

both think you don't need to but also

7:37

the cost of doing so are de minimis.

7:40

What what was the urgency you were

7:41

feeling?

7:42

>> The urgency?

7:43

>> Yeah, to to go out and do do something.

7:46

>> I don't know. Life is short, right? Um

7:48

and I I I all I mean, it was a general

7:50

kind of haste. Uh I think, you know, a

7:52

lot

7:53

a lot of us um I'm sure I'm sure many of

7:55

the people here you you you you kind of

7:56

get into this mode of speed running high

7:58

school and then, you know, once you get

8:00

to college it's like, obviously I want

8:01

to speed run that as well and do all the

8:02

things. So, a bit of that. A bit of

8:04

um

8:06

Marc Andreessen also talks about a

8:07

version of this.

8:08

I thought that a bunch of the

8:09

opportunities uh in startups in Silicon

8:12

Valley and so forth were ephemeral and

8:15

fleeting. And if we didn't build it

8:16

then, but, you know, it wouldn't be

8:18

possible to do it in three or four

8:19

years. And maybe all the opportunities

8:20

will be gone. You know, in hindsight, I

8:22

think that um

8:24

that was a a poor intuition. Uh it's

8:25

been pretty robustly and reliably the

8:27

case over many decades in Silicon Valley

8:29

has a surfeit of opportunities.

8:32

Um yeah, I think it was mainly those two

8:33

things.

8:33

>> think it's um I mean, this is a very

8:35

common thing that we hear when we talk

8:37

to students now is that they

8:39

part of the reason they want to drop out

8:40

en masse, it seems, at this point is

8:42

they're worried that actually now is the

8:44

moment that they're sort of I think the

8:45

meme going around is that if you don't

8:47

sort of

8:48

uh drop out and start a company and make

8:49

lots of money, you're going to be

8:50

trapped in the permanent underclass. So,

8:52

is that um should everyone here be

8:54

worried about being stuck in the

8:55

permanent underclass? I guess is the

8:56

question.

8:57

>> Um

8:59

I think um

9:00

humanity has always had um a an affinity

9:04

for these millenarian sort of models of

9:07

how uh everything is um

9:10

you know, everything will soon come to

9:11

an end uh and be this this sort of

9:15

permanent transformation of society and

9:16

so forth. Actually, there's a great

9:17

book, The Winged Gospel. People thought

9:19

that after the the invention of

9:21

aviation, that it was just

9:24

like civilization was just entering

9:26

humanity as a species were entering a

9:28

new era and nothing is going to be the

9:30

same. I mean, obviously aviation was was

9:33

a pretty big deal, but uh I I I don't

9:35

think it was sort of quite the um the

9:37

sociological rewriting that some of the

9:41

you know excitable proponents at the

9:42

time imagined. So I am

9:45

you know it's it's hard to predict

9:47

anything especially the future but I

9:49

would I would take the under on this

9:52

being the last couple of years to get a

9:54

company going.

9:54

>> Fair enough.

9:56

So going back to the Stripe story Stripe

9:59

ostensibly seems like a good idea. Like

10:01

even on day one it's the internet's a

10:03

big deal money's a big deal like combine

10:05

those two things.

10:06

Presumably is that how it went when you

10:07

went to tell people you wanted to start

10:09

Stripe and everyone just say hey this is

10:10

a great this is an obviously a good

10:11

idea.

10:13

>> It was kind of funny it was um

10:15

it was so so something we learned from

10:17

YC

10:18

uh

10:19

was that the importance of focusing on

10:22

very concrete easy to explain customer

10:25

problems. Like it's it's very easy to

10:28

to hallucinate or to you know imagine

10:30

some customer problem that's not

10:32

actually something viscerally felt by a

10:34

person who would pay money.

10:36

And so over the course of in part

10:37

working on automatic together we have

10:38

encountered this issue of it being

10:40

really annoying to deal with

10:42

movement of money or payments whatever

10:44

on the internet. Um and on the one hand

10:47

it seemed like a

10:49

an obviously good idea in the sense that

10:50

nobody liked the existing ways of doing

10:52

so

10:53

and they were broadly extremely

10:56

unpopular and kind of antiquated and

10:58

legacy and you had to like fill out all

10:59

this paperwork and go to the bank in

11:01

person and the paperwork was in Latin

11:03

and just like it was all bad. Um

11:05

but then the flip side is

11:07

it just seems kind of ridiculous that

11:09

two kids would start a financial

11:13

services business

11:15

and fintech didn't exist as a sector at

11:17

the time like the word literally didn't

11:19

exist

11:20

and so it's just kind of you know we

11:22

felt like the proverbial squirrels you

11:24

know in a trench coat trying to

11:26

masquerade as a

11:28

real business or as you know serious

11:30

adults but obviously knowing nothing

11:32

coming in about the

11:34

about the space and and certainly a lot

11:35

of people we met and pitched or banks or

11:37

partners or whatever that we talked to,

11:39

I mean

11:40

you

11:41

didn't literally laugh us out of the

11:43

room, but I you kind of see them looking

11:45

for the button to like call security

11:47

under the desk to have them haul us out

11:48

cuz it just seemed so improbable. So,

11:50

anyway, I'd say it like it both seemed

11:51

like an obviously good idea in that

11:53

people really wanted this, but also a

11:54

bad idea in that nobody took it

11:56

seriously. Um but I I think that I think

11:58

the fact that it was

11:59

ultimately the fact that it was grounded

12:00

in such a concrete actual real user

12:02

problem saved us.

12:04

>> Um

12:05

you actually speaking of that, how did

12:08

you you had to in order to actually

12:09

build the product, you had to get

12:10

banking partner and do things that a

12:12

typical software company did not have to

12:14

do. As two young founders, like how did

12:17

you manage to convince a bank to trust

12:19

you in the end?

12:20

>> Yeah, um well, actually this is not an

12:22

answer

12:24

to your question. But um

12:26

just a thing that strikes me as I sit

12:28

here is the reason we decided to start

12:31

Stripe

12:32

is because so John and I were in college

12:35

together. He was in his freshman year

12:37

and we went to Startup School

12:39

in 2009,

12:41

which was held in Berkeley.

12:43

And we

12:45

we thought it was pretty cool.

12:47

Um

12:47

and so we went to we got sushi

12:49

afterwards in Potrero and we were

12:51

walking back from sushi and we're like,

12:53

you know, we'd kind of been kicking

12:54

around this idea for um

12:56

a payment thing or like we've been

12:57

thinking about the space.

12:59

And it was walking back that evening

13:01

after Startup School that we decided to

13:03

start Stripe.

13:05

I remember literally where we were in

13:06

the road and I remember what we said to

13:07

each other, which was, "Yeah, you know,

13:09

we might as well because it probably

13:10

won't be that hard."

13:12

>> Okay. So, moral of the story is go get

13:14

sushi in Potrero tonight and you might

13:17

start the next Stripe.

13:18

>> [laughter]

13:19

>> Um and yes, be beware of sort of these

13:21

these ultimate yak shaves. We thought we

13:23

could do it on the side while in

13:25

college, you know, take a couple months,

13:27

and that was almost 17 years ago.

13:31

>> Um

13:32

at the time I remember you were also

13:34

unusual in that you took sort of longer

13:36

to do a big public launch. And

13:38

especially within the YC world, the

13:39

motto is very much sort of launch early,

13:42

launch quickly, be out there and

13:43

iterate. Um could you maybe just talk us

13:45

through a little bit about that? So, why

13:46

did you do it that way?

13:47

>> Yeah, so um we started working on Stripe

13:49

um kind of seriously in the uh the well,

13:52

we

13:52

started working the week after that's

13:54

our school, but um we're going to

13:56

college wasn't full-time. We started

13:57

working full-time the summer of 2010. We

13:59

launched publicly September 2011. So,

14:03

almost uh 2 years after like the first

14:05

lines of code after the repo was

14:06

started. And yeah, waiting 2 years to

14:08

launch seems I mean I you know, I've

14:10

heard

14:11

if we're going to YC meetings, you know,

14:12

every every week, I think we'd have

14:14

been, you know, bludgeoned on the head.

14:16

Um I think um I'm looking in many

14:19

domains that probably is the wrong thing

14:20

to do. Um in our domain, to answer your

14:22

last question, because we had to

14:24

do so much stuff around security and

14:26

partners and money movement and

14:28

infrastructure and reliability and you

14:30

know, all the things. We just we didn't

14:32

feel like we could scale a really good

14:35

self-serve experience without getting a

14:37

lot of the kind of the preconditions um

14:38

and the infrastructure in place.

14:40

Um the I think the the thing that saved

14:43

us

14:44

um and meant that it wasn't a total walk

14:46

in the wilderness

14:47

is we had production users almost from

14:53

the very beginning. So, first lines of

14:54

code um

14:57

in uh fall of '09, we got our first live

14:59

production user uh in um

15:03

in January of 2010. So, like 2 months

15:05

into working on whatever. And it did

15:08

very little. Like it was very larval and

15:10

incomplete. Uh and uh our first

15:12

production customer was uh Ross Boucher

15:15

at a company called uh Twilio North. Um

15:16

and all it could do was charge a card.

15:19

Uh and so, you know, Ross would charge

15:21

the card. Uh and you know, then he would

15:22

ask some very reasonable question like,

15:24

you know, how do I How can I look at all

15:26

my charges? And like,

15:28

reasonable request. And so, you know,

15:30

let's code up a little dashboard here.

15:32

And then he'd be like, well, I want to

15:33

refund a payment. And you know, we're

15:35

like, all right, we'll build refund

15:35

support. And then, you know, after a

15:37

couple of weeks, he was like, so you

15:38

know, at some point, do I get my money?

15:41

And we're like, also a reasonable

15:42

request. So, let's let's build that

15:44

functionality. So, it was very kind of

15:45

just-in-time development. Anyway, so we

15:47

we had a production customer from very

15:48

early, and then we did increase So, in

15:51

private beta, we increased the number of

15:53

customers every single month, you know,

15:56

all the way to that public launch. And

15:57

so, every, you know, every week, we had

16:00

actual customer feedback, requests, new

16:03

users coming in. We're learning things

16:05

from reality as opposed to our own kind

16:07

of hypothesized or extrapolated

16:09

conception of it. And I I think if you

16:12

have,

16:13

you know, a significant stream like that

16:15

of of um

16:17

of grounding, I think it's probably okay

16:20

to not be like, launch launch.

16:22

When do you I mean, you're you're an

16:23

expert YC partner. Do you agree?

16:24

[laughter]

16:25

>> That's a good question. Um

16:27

Yeah, I mean, it is This is the the

16:30

issue with advice in general is it's

16:31

sort of so generalized. And like, they

16:34

especially in startups, the exception

16:35

proves the rule, right? So, I think

16:37

those are Yeah, certainly certainly if

16:41

um

16:42

you know, your the cost of failure is

16:44

high, um then it almost certainly you

16:46

have to sort of take longer to like

16:48

build. Um

16:50

You may be a very slight tangent, but

16:51

something I'm curious about related to

16:53

this, though, is

16:54

you know, we we were talking like with

16:55

with these coding agents, the ability to

16:57

just like build and produce software

16:58

cheaply and quickly, um I I wonder,

17:01

should people be taking more of this

17:03

path? Like, should people be more

17:04

ambitious in general with what the

17:06

version one of the thing that they

17:07

launch is? Um

17:09

Or you know, or is it still

17:10

fundamentally good product design to

17:12

start like narrow and focused and then

17:14

expand out once you know what people

17:16

want.

17:16

>> Yeah. Um Um

17:20

It's a good question. Um

17:26

I think probably in the

17:29

era of AI, I mean I I don't know.

17:32

And you know, to some extent YC will

17:34

will be I think the expert here, but um

17:37

you know, there's the whole kind of

17:38

traditional lean startup doctrine of

17:40

exactly what you say, like start out by

17:42

buying the Google Ads or something and

17:43

and uh

17:44

identify this crevice or whatever and

17:46

and and aggressively expand out from

17:47

that.

17:49

I think you can certainly imagine that

17:52

that becomes much more competitive and

17:54

much more um

17:57

you know,

17:57

aggressively tilled and it's kind of

17:59

hard to find those those little niches.

18:02

The internet's a much bigger place than

18:03

it was 20 years ago when some of those

18:05

ideas emerged, whereas taking these

18:08

really divergent starting points where

18:10

nobody else uh is uh is uh trying to

18:15

um occupy that territory is is maybe a

18:19

more like basically maybe you have to

18:21

more aggressively decorrelate uh in the

18:23

era of AI, and I think it is interesting

18:24

to think about, you know, many of the

18:25

companies that were most successful over

18:27

the last 10 years, so many of them are

18:30

are very anti-lean startup, right? Uh

18:33

whether it's, you know, the labs

18:34

themselves or Anduril or um yeah, you

18:38

you you you can go down the list. A lot

18:40

of them have this characteristic. So, I

18:42

um

18:42

yeah, I think maybe maybe a better way

18:44

of saying it is 20 20 years ago that

18:47

whole lean startup thing was

18:49

uh was almost the only thing to do

18:51

because of capital available and you

18:53

didn't have AI that made, I don't know,

18:54

spinning up an organization with many

18:56

different potentialities and

18:57

capabilities so much easier, whereas now

18:58

I think you can start these much more

18:59

aggressive and ambitious things up

19:00

front.

19:02

>> Um

19:03

within sort of YC and probably startup

19:05

world at this point, you're famous for

19:06

the at least the program term schlepp

19:08

blindness, this Stripe um uh at least on

19:11

the surface was not like, you know,

19:13

involved a lot of schleps, like things I

19:14

presume you weren't like the um,

19:16

intellectually most interesting things

19:18

uh, to work on. Um, and I always found

19:20

that especially interesting for you

19:22

because you just mentioned you you had

19:24

academic interests in physics and um,

19:26

you're just like clearly like, you know,

19:27

a deep intellectual and have very many

19:29

things that you're interested in. As

19:30

Stripe has sort of grown into this in

19:32

this big company

19:34

in what ways sort of, you know, in what

19:36

ways um, are there sort of like

19:38

intellectual

19:39

um, rewards that you've you've given up

19:42

and which ones have you gained?

19:44

>> Yeah, I am I mean, look, in any company

19:46

there's a bunch of stuff that's um,

19:49

not that rewarding or in and of itself

19:51

all that interesting. Like so setting up

19:53

payroll, no one sort of starts a company

19:55

so that uh, you can you can set up

19:56

payroll. Uh, and certainly building

19:58

business financial services there's all

19:59

sorts of, you know, more arcane and

20:01

extensive uh, versions of that. Um,

20:04

I think that um,

20:06

I actually feel extremely lucky with

20:08

Stripe um, and in this respect. And

20:11

uh, I think this is something I don't

20:13

know if you need to think about it that

20:14

much up front, but I think once you

20:16

think about it maybe before you raise a

20:18

significant amount of money, um,

20:21

you know, you always worry naturally

20:23

about possibility of failure and

20:25

you know,

20:26

what will happen if you fail and how to

20:28

mitigate and avoid failure and all those

20:30

things. I think you need to ask the uh,

20:32

the sort of converse of that, uh, what

20:35

if you succeed? And you know,

20:38

you raise money and you've customers and

20:39

you've employees and a whole thing.

20:42

Like are you going to be are you going

20:43

to enjoy that? Are you going to want to

20:44

work on that for 10 years, for 17 years,

20:48

for 30 years? Uh, I mean, Larry Ellison

20:50

at Oracle is going for I mean, I I I

20:53

guess it'll be a half century soon,

20:55

right? Um, so so, you know, what if you

20:57

succeed? And in the case of Stripe, I

21:01

really love it because you know, we're

21:03

working with the world's most

21:05

interesting and innovative companies. Uh

21:07

like we're uh, uh 25% of all Delaware

21:11

corporations are started with Stripe uh

21:14

via Atlas. And then we get to partner

21:16

with them and work with them and hear

21:17

from them and get their feedback and get

21:19

their requests and everything, you know,

21:20

through the entirety of the journey up

21:22

to being the Shopifys and the OpenAIs

21:24

and the, you know, all all the um

21:27

uh the uh the standout successes. Um oh

21:30

and actually speaking of Atlas,

21:32

uh we're giving free Atlas incorporation

21:34

to everybody at Startup School. So, um

21:42

if you are at struck by the uh the urge

21:45

to found something uh you know, over

21:47

dinner this evening as we were, uh just

21:49

email startupschool@stripe.com

21:52

and we will get you your link uh for

21:53

free Atlas.

21:55

Um

21:55

but uh but yeah, I I you know, I think

21:57

PG latched onto something where yeah,

21:59

there are all these kind of menial

22:00

tasks, but but in the kind of totality

22:02

of Stripe, I find it so

22:04

interesting. Like every business is a

22:07

kind of applied theory on how some

22:10

aspect of the world works or how some

22:12

market works or how some you know,

22:15

how if the new company with a new um

22:18

the new model, it's kind of a contrarian

22:20

thesis on some counterfactual. But yeah,

22:22

just like it's it's I've never met a

22:23

Stripe customer and thought that's

22:25

boring.

22:26

Um so so it's actually the business as a

22:27

whole has been the opposite of uh of the

22:29

Schlep Blindness um instinct.

22:32

>> And you have a particularly unique in um

22:35

perspective on this cuz you work with

22:36

the big model um providers, the big lab

22:38

companies, and you work with all of the

22:40

fast-growing AI startups on the ground.

22:43

Uh something that came up a lot here

22:44

yesterday, uh honestly comes up within

22:46

the batches, too, is people are just

22:47

worried about um

22:49

is my idea going to get sort of trampled

22:51

by the the big uh lab providers? And I'm

22:54

giving your perspective, I'm just

22:56

curious like how how should people think

22:57

about that?

22:58

>> Yeah. Um

23:02

Yeah, again, predictions are hard and

23:04

certainly the labs are very competent,

23:06

capable organizations.

23:07

Um

23:10

And maybe you should separate a little

23:11

bit.

23:12

Will

23:13

rapidly improving AI capabilities do

23:16

this or will the labs specifically

23:18

themselves do this? Um

23:21

I think in general the track record of

23:23

like

23:25

no organization

23:27

if we go back 20 years, you know,

23:29

there's some of the sense with Google.

23:30

Like, you know, when we were doing

23:31

automatic, the question was always for

23:33

our company and every other company, you

23:34

know, what if Google does this? And

23:37

Google seemed kind of omnipotent and had

23:39

this immense number of incredibly

23:41

talented people and essentially infinite

23:43

access to capital and server and just

23:45

all the things. And

23:47

just human organizations are complicated

23:49

and it's very hard to have um to

23:54

manage to aggressively prosecute

23:57

100 different priorities and to deal

24:01

with all the issues and interference

24:03

that arises among them and so forth. And

24:04

so, you know, Google has done incredibly

24:05

well in a bunch of specific places, but

24:07

it's not like Google has done all the

24:09

things even if in some kind of basic

24:11

material sense, uh Google maybe, you

24:13

know, had that ability. So, I'd say that

24:14

the kind of the track record of that

24:16

is um is

24:17

uh is checkered. And in general, I think

24:20

that fear has been overstated. Now, I

24:21

think there is a more specific thing of

24:23

just like models themselves. Forget the

24:24

labs. Even even if the labs aren't

24:26

specific particularly ambitious about

24:28

expanding their scope, just like

24:30

literally at length, uh will will

24:32

obviate a bunch of or

24:35

agentic capabilities will obviate a

24:36

bunch of uh of you know, specific

24:38

verticals or tasks or something. You

24:39

know, hard to say, obviously contingent

24:41

on one's forecast of the model

24:42

capabilities themselves, uh but, you

24:44

know, in certain cases, I'm sure that

24:45

will happen. And you know, in certain

24:46

domains, it has already happened.

24:49

Looking at the Stripe data, one thing I

24:50

will say that I think is germane to

24:52

people here, um

24:54

there are many more businesses getting

24:56

started now than there were a year ago,

25:00

like as little as a year ago.

25:02

Um, way, way more than we're getting

25:03

started, you know, 5 years ago.

25:06

Uh, and actually the relative change

25:08

between last year and this year is

25:10

pretty much the largest relative change

25:12

we've seen in any given year. So, for

25:13

example, from 19 from 2019 to 2020, we

25:17

saw a big jump, you know, understandable

25:19

during COVID. So, you know, um, February

25:21

to April of 2020 or whatever.

25:24

Uh, you know, I I I think the growth

25:26

rate inflected to maybe 50% or

25:29

thereabouts, uh, year-over-year in terms

25:31

of new businesses getting started. Um,

25:33

as I speak, the number of new businesses

25:35

starting on Stripe is up

25:37

around a bit under, but around 2x

25:40

year-over-year, um, which again is the

25:42

largest relative jump, uh, we've seen.

25:45

Um,

25:46

and you might think, okay, fine, you

25:48

know, there's way more vibe-coded, kind

25:50

of lightweight slop, you know, whatever.

25:52

Like, maybe fine, there's more things,

25:54

but like, are they actually succeeding?

25:57

Um, but actually the median business,

26:00

uh, is doing better this year than a

26:03

year ago.

26:04

Um, and so

26:06

and then if we kind of, um, stratify and

26:08

look at the probability that any given

26:10

business will reach some revenue

26:12

threshold, a million dollars, five

26:14

million dollars, 10 million dollars,

26:15

whatever,

26:16

um, those all seem to be getting better.

26:18

Uh, business are

26:20

uh, the time to revenue

26:22

for new companies incorporated with

26:23

Atlas is declining. And so, by all the

26:26

kind of objective metrics we can look

26:28

at, uh, it seems to be a better time

26:32

than ever to start a business. Then

26:34

again, things can change. I don't know

26:35

what the world's going to look like in 5

26:36

years, but, you know, speaking today on

26:39

July 26th or whatever it is, uh, of of

26:41

'26, um, I think it is

26:44

the Stripe data would suggest it's

26:46

there's never been a better time. Um, I

26:48

mean, we see the exact same thing in the

26:49

YC batches. Companies are just able to

26:50

grow faster than ever. Um,

26:53

>> Certainly within the batch.

26:54

>> It used when you know, back in again the

26:56

old days when Arge and I were first

26:57

starting out, like getting to a million

26:59

dollars of revenue like running revenue

27:02

was a big deal. Like people would know

27:03

about that company. They'd be like, you

27:05

know, I heard that X company got to a

27:06

million dollars of revenue. And now, I

27:09

mean

27:10

I don't That's

27:11

>> Yeah, that's actually you should be

27:12

Well, your first month it feels like.

27:14

>> You should um that's an exaggeration for

27:16

everyone here. Um

27:17

but I mean I certainly within sort of

27:18

like sort of like the YC uh

27:21

part of the life cycle like day zero to

27:23

90, it's really being driven by I would

27:25

say enterprises willing to buy from

27:27

startups, which is the new thing. So,

27:29

you can sign these new contracts um

27:31

within like the batch. Um you have the

27:33

data as the companies keep growing. I'm

27:35

curious, are there other factors that

27:36

are driving these sort of um

27:39

uh inflected growth curves from like one

27:41

to 10 and 10 to 100?

27:42

>> I I think it's really the dynamic you

27:44

just mentioned, uh which is businesses

27:47

uh

27:49

businesses everywhere

27:51

are more um spring-loaded

27:55

uh

27:55

to

27:57

adapt and to try new things. And they

28:01

have a real terror of being left behind

28:04

with archaic and antiquated ways of

28:07

operating. And so, in normal times,

28:10

you're a new startup, you have you have

28:12

some mechanism for doing whatever, and

28:14

you pitch the CIO or the CTO or the

28:16

whoever at some company, and they kind

28:19

of don't want to talk to you because,

28:21

you know, your thing is not validated.

28:23

Maybe you won't be around in 2 years.

28:24

You know, all all the kind of obvious

28:25

objections. But now, people know that,

28:27

well, the risk of the status quo is

28:30

actually extremely high. And so, even if

28:32

there's risk in doing all the new

28:33

things, well,

28:35

this path also looks pretty dangerous.

28:36

And so, I really think there's never

28:38

been a better time for startups to to

28:40

sell

28:41

um and to have their products get

28:43

adopted at, you know, pretty meaningful

28:44

scale right out of the gate. Uh a lot of

28:46

YC companies in recent times have

28:48

demonstrated this, but uh I think it's a

28:50

it's a really pervasive dynamic. And

28:52

there's a bit of it I think also, I mean

28:53

Stripe is not a consumer company,

28:54

obviously, but you know, I think there's

28:56

some version of this on the consumer

28:57

side where I think consumers, I mean,

28:59

are also pretty, I mean,

29:01

consumers have complicated views on AI

29:03

and maybe they don't want the data

29:05

centers, but people are very intrigued

29:07

by the products and I think there is a

29:10

kind of they're kind of beguiled by them

29:12

and there's a a predisposition and an

29:15

openness to

29:17

experimenting with the new.

29:18

>> Um maybe just more broadly something I'm

29:20

curious about is again with with this

29:22

the data you have at Stripe, um has

29:24

anything you've seen in that data stream

29:25

um changed a belief you have about AI

29:28

broadly say over the like the last 12

29:30

months?

29:31

>> I mean, there's a fear

29:34

uh that AI is going to be this

29:37

um

29:38

hegemonic, centralizing, totalizing

29:41

force where a small number of companies

29:44

gobble up a very large share of the

29:45

economy. And

29:49

many companies at the forefront of AI

29:53

um

29:54

have done incredibly well and I think

29:55

we'll continue to do incredibly well,

29:57

for sure.

29:59

But based on what we can see at Stripe,

30:01

the

30:02

hunger and the intensity with which

30:05

other companies are either getting

30:07

started, taking advantage of these new

30:09

capabilities, or existing companies are

30:11

retooling,

30:13

I don't worry about the centralization

30:15

in the same way. Uh I think there I

30:18

think there are going to be many

30:20

thousands of winners. Um and again, we

30:23

try not to offer any definitive

30:25

prognostications cuz the future is not

30:28

predetermined, but based on the the

30:31

trend lines we can see, I think we are

30:34

heading towards a um a more

30:37

decentralized world and one with more

30:40

broad-based prosperity.

30:41

>> Yeah, cool. All right, well, I think

30:43

that is all we have time for today. So

30:46

thanks so much Patrick for me.

30:47

>> Thank you for having me and um

30:52

It would be remiss of me not to say that

30:54

Stripe would not exist without YC.

30:55

>> All right, cool. All right, see you so

30:57

much.

Interactive Summary

In this Startup School session, Patrick Collison discusses his journey with Stripe, the evolving landscape of startups in the era of AI, and whether prospective founders should drop out of college. He emphasizes that while AI tools can assist with coding, cognitive ability and first-principles thinking remain essential. Collison also highlights the current favorable environment for startups, citing Stripe data that shows a significant increase in new business formation and faster revenue growth, contradicting fears of market centralization by big tech labs.

Suggested questions

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