What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)
2225 segments
Hello listeners, welcome to another
episode of Geopolitical Cousins. First,
some housekeeping. I know you're all
waiting for the episodes with Peter
Zion. I am waiting for them too. Um, we
are waiting on an editor to finish. It
was a fourerson conversation in person
in a room. Um, the video editor that we
used for it has been traveling Nepal
doing another video project. I don't
want to bore you with the details. It is
imminently dropping. I was hoping it was
going to drop today. It's probably going
to drop early next week. We have not
forgotten about it. You can keep
emailing me if you want and be like,
"Where is the episode?" It's coming, I
promise. Uh, patience is a virtue. Bear
with me. And thank you. Thank you for
your patience. In the meantime, uh, we
decided to do a World Cup recap episode.
So, we brought back the BCA boys back on
the show. Um, and we talked about their
model and what went right, what didn't
go right. Talked about the geopolitics
of the World Cup, the things we liked,
the things we didn't like. Um, this is a
World Cup forward episode. If you don't
want to hear about the World Cup, I
mean, I think you should. I think we did
a really good job interweaving the
geopolitics and also not just talking
about soccer, but talking about how to
analyze things. Like ultimately, this is
a conversation about how to analyze and
predict soccer and understand what's
going on when you have all these
different variables and competition and
things like that. So, I think even if
you don't like soccer, it's interesting
from that point of view. But if you are
really just sick of soccer and you don't
want to do it, like this is an episode
to skip. But I would recommend you try
it out. We will be back with our normal
geopolitical programming. Well,
hopefully we're going to get those those
Peter episodes out early next week.
We've got another books episode uh
coming and cousin and I are going to
continue to push out content as we get
into the end of the summer. Um, that's
about all I got. Uh, there's a lot going
on in the world. Uh, take care of the
people that you love. Cheers. We will
see you out there.
And I I see despite the fact that I know
least about soccer among all of you, I'm
the only one wearing a jersey right now.
So, I got my England jersey on right now
because I don't know how many more times
I'm going to be able to use this thing.
Uh, but it's nice to be with you all.
Marco, do you want to start us off?
>> Yeah, I think uh I think the way that we
should uh kind of split this podcast um
is first and foremost, we have uh BCA's
uh brain trust here to explain what
happened with a model. Uh a little
refresher would be good. By the way,
let's not assume that all of our
listeners also listen to the first one.
So like maybe one of the three of you
can kind of give uh a sense of what the
model was focused on uh what went wrong
in the in the group stage, what went
right in the knockout stage and then I
think that will lead into discussion of
what was
bad about this World Cup and what was
good about this World Cup. So maybe we
can split into three. Everybody can give
their thoughts on sort of let's talk
quantitative research, let's talk trying
to predict sports uh which is really
difficult especially something like
soccer and then let's talk about the
negatives and then let's talk about the
positives. Um and I think uh you know
why are we talking about this on
geopolitical cousins by the way? Well,
first of all because it's fun. I mean
the World Cup is an incredible moment
every four years. Um the amount of
attention that the world puts on it is
really unique. Uh we have nothing like
it really. Even the Olympics doesn't
capture people's sort of imagination the
way that this does. Um and also I think
that there is a geopolitical component
to some of the things that happen at the
World Cup. But also I think what's
interesting to me is that you know Jacob
and I are not the most quantitative
people on the planet. Um, but I think
that there's real validity in trying
to adapt quantitative methods to what is
inherently unquantifiable, you know, and
I think that um it it's
if for anything else just because when
you fail and when the model fails,
that's when the truth kind of reveals
itself. you know, even though it's
qualitative, the quantitative method
ensures that you at least know precisely
what it was that didn't work out. All
right, so I'm going to hand over. By the
way, just as an intro, let's uh uh so
we've got uh two uh two guests who were
on I think like a month ago. So, Juan
Korea and Robert Temper. Juan uh uh does
global asset location at BCA research.
my colleague and friend uh he and I have
been co-owners of an uh JBL franchise in
uh basketball fantasy league for now
over 10 years. Uh he was my ringer, he
was my quant uh now he's a fullfledged
co-owner. Um and then Robert Temper is
the head of global fixed income at BC
Research. And then we also have uh
Jeremy Pelos who is the head of all
European research, all European
investment strategy at BCA. He could not
make this podcast a month ago and he's
here joining us as well. Uh he's also
French so he's the saddest. Um I mean
Robert I mean yeah like Robert's like
I'm sad too. I'm like no I mean yeah
Colombian sad too like you know. Um but
like you know the French should be the
saddest. I mean, you know, he had the
highest hopes and they were crushed. Um,
all right. So, who wants to kick us off
in terms of what was kind of in the
model real quick? Um, and what went
wrong in the knockout phases and and
then how did you guys fix it for sorry,
what went wrong in the group stage and
then what did you guys notice fix for
the knockout?
>> Yeah, I'm I'm happy to to get started.
So just as a quick reminder, the kind of
key input into the model is the player
rating data from the game FIFA. Um, and
we aggregate that data for every team in
various ways for attackers, midfield,
wingers, etc. Um, to basically get a
sense of how strong each national team
is. And then we also take into account a
couple of other variables such as kind
of experience measured by the number of
caps that that players have had or
something like age. Um which can be
either positive in a sense of experience
or a negative in a sense of declining
kind of fitness. Um and so based on that
we predict every game individually um
based on the difference between these
variables between the the teams that
play each other and then we can for the
group stage come up with an expected
number of points that that each team
gets and based on that we get um who
who's most likely to qualify and so the
group stage I think was average the
performance of of the model Um, we
obviously got most of the teams right
that advanced, but I mean when uh 32 out
of 48 teams advanced, that's kind of
what you what you would expect. Um,
obviously there were some big surprises.
Um, obviously probably the biggest one,
Cabo Verde. Um, but also not really
represented in in our models forecast
were South Africa or Australia, which
really outperformed. And then the big
disappointments were really Turkey um
the Czech Republic and and South Korea
um which didn't make it to to the next
round. And then um what we've did after
the group stage um is we did an update
because we've done this in the past but
especially this World Cup it was pretty
necessary because of the way that
qualification worked with um eight of
the best third place teams advancing. it
was really hard to know in advance what
kind of the tournament tree would look
like and so um we reran the model after
the the group stage based on the known
known matchups. Um and [snorts] so
that was I would argue a pretty
successful rerun and the model actually
did pretty well. We got the four
semi-finalists and the two matchups
correct. Um but that's then so up until
then it looked like uh France uh was on
its way to actually win the World Cup.
Um but that's where things kind of
derailed and I think we can get into
that in in a little bit. But the other
major thing that we changed um between
the group stage and the knockout stage
is we have a dummy variable for the
winner previous winner and we call that
the winner's curse cuz historically
um previous winners have done horrendous
at uh the following World Cups. But this
time around Argentina obviously did
pretty well. So they obviously did much
better than we expected in the group
stage. And so we decided um largely
because of one person uh they have done
very well in the group stage that the
goat variable trumps the winner's curse.
Um and I guess one could argue that
maybe there was more at play in the
knockout stages than just the goat
variable, but I guess we can get into
that as well. Um but yeah, in in at the
end of the day, I think the knockout
stage was still fairly successful. We
got um 26 out of 32 games correct. Um so
we're fairly happy with that. And I
actually just got a message today from a
client saying they finished second in
their internal uh kind of betting uh
World Cup game uh betting strategy uh
based using the model.
>> Oh, that's good. Okay. So like client
satisfied. By the way, for all the youth
who don't know what BCA is, it does not
predict sports for a living. [laughter]
Just to be clear, this is this is just
uh what I call an intellectual flex that
we do once every four years where we
showcase what we can do when we get
together and put our brains together.
Um, all right. So, just be clear, my my
presence here is to serve as the Jim
Kramer of soccer because I have at every
time we did a podcast, Marco, I
successfully picked the opposite of what
was going to happen. The best was when I
said, "Oh, yeah, France is going to
steamroll into the final." And of
course, like the episode came out after
France got defeated 2-0 by by Spain. So,
anything that I say on this podcast, I
have no fancy models. This is me just
going full gut, baby. I'm just going to
tell you exactly what I want, and you
should use me as your infers Kramer for
sports betting. That is my goal here to
be that wrong and entertaining. Booyah.
>> And that's why you're wearing England
jersey, right?
>> Exactly. I've adopted I've adopted
England to the chagrin of many. I was
actually reflecting on this. I uh this
is going to sound really lame. Um I I
started I sing my daughter like laabis
every night before she goes to sleep and
I just threw in a little God Save the
Queen when I got back from um from this
England match and now she's obsessed.
She will not let me sing anything other.
She wanted it the full orchestral
arrangement on the way to camp this
morning. Uh, so it's great that we still
live in a country that she can sing God
Save the Queen and not get taken to a
goolog or me taken to a goolog. But I
digress.
>> That's funny. That's that's a sign that
you're a geopolitical cousin because I
raised all my kids on just anthems.
That's that's all I did. That's that's
all I sang. Uh, multiple anthems which
makes it cool. Um, all right. So, one
question I have for you guys. Um, you
replaced, you know, the the winner's
curse with a goat variable.
That's interesting. It's almost like
replacing something top down secular,
you know, systemic with this individual
performance. Was it almost like a
capitulation to the very nature of
forecasting football? Because football
is not about one person. And does that
make what Messi did even that much more
extraordinary that not only did he get
drag this Argentina team which was
massively flawed to the finals but he
also made us reconsider our
methodological like foundation as a as
an entity as a firm.
>> Well so Marco I think part of that is
that but I would also highlight that
this actually the second time that the a
winner's curse actually fails. Um we had
the winner curs issue.
>> Yeah. Third time. Third time. So we had
the winner's curse um also in our last
model
>> and um you know assuming that France
wasn't going to do well and you know
they actually went to the final and you
know I think that's a discussion that we
can have. You know maybe this winner's
curs is not as powerful anymore and
maybe want and I I'll be curious what
you guys think like one possible culprit
of that is just sports. um you know like
one of the reasons why usually teams did
not repeat or didn't do well uh is
because you know if you have a key part
of let's say your core that is let's say
28 29 years old uh you know four years
from there they're going to be like in
their early 30s and no not now but if
you go back like 20 years ago like
that's when most players actually start
to retire uh whereas today you know we
have like Modric still a great player uh
playing at 40 for for Croatia, Ronaldo
at 40, and like Messi, who was
essentially like one of the best players
in the tournament at 39, which is
completely unheard of. So, yeah, I think
that's maybe one reason why um that
winner's curse is is probably not as
relevant as it used to be um you know,
10 or or 15 years ago.
>> I mean, you could I think you can you
can add a couple of other reasons and
I've been thinking about it why it
failed. I think the expansion of the of
the tournament like in terms of number
of teams I think we can all you know we
can all agree or disagree but it feels
to me that the average dual at the group
stage of each of the groups was
relatively lower than what we we saw in
previous workups. So in other words, uh
when you look at the at the previous
groups of previous workup winners, I
felt like the overall like in terms of
average level and challenge to the team,
it was slightly higher. So in in in this
case, because when you look at the
winners, all of the conditions were met.
So in other words, it's not only that
there's additional pressure, you know,
pressure to repeat something that is
quite rare. There's the fact that the
average age of the uh Argentinian team
was quite elevated which is probably the
key uh the key ingredient to failing to
repeat at winning the World Cup. Uh and
yet when you look at you know what
Argentina did in the group stage it did
better than ever before. like usually
Argentina and I I don't think that Messi
I mean arguably I think Messi was for
like was still was playing at a better
level four years ago because think about
it he was still playing in Europe at the
highest level uh he was not yet in the
MLS this time around you you could say
all right perhaps he's been you know
chilling the entire season and he was
just waiting for the World Cup which
explains why even though he turned I
think he turned 39 during the tournament
it didn't really show because because of
his style like he spends most of the
time walking if you look at him on the
pitch you know it's always been the case
and you know he saved himself for the
world cup so I think those are
additional uh elements to account other
than just yes Messi is one of the
greatest players of all time but so is
Ronaldo and [laughter] and Ronaldo is
was doing the opposite with Portugal
than what Messi did with Argentina
Maybe playing the Saudi le could I jump
in and zag here for a second because I
know we want to get into the model, but
I I'm going to zag hard here and I I
just know the vitriol that's coming to
me for saying this. Um Messi's the goat,
right? Greatest of all time. I watched a
lot of World Cup. Didn't seem like the
goat to me. Felt like a lot of, oh,
we're going to bow down to this guy. But
I was at the England Argentina match for
the first 70 minutes. The dude was
washed. The dude couldn't dribble the
ball without losing it. He was tackling
Jude Bellingham, everything else. Now he
woke up. There's that meme and then he
had the two nicests in the corner. But
then in the final with Spain again, like
not there. And I know I'm not going to
do the conspiracy theory thing here, but
Switzerland had them on the ropes. Okay,
Egypt had them and then a goal got taken
away. I mean, this narrative changes
meaningfully in some sense. And there's
this whole like I get why the the the
public discourse is about Messi's the
goat, not the goat, because that's the
greatest conversation for media out
there. I mean, Michael Jordan's been
retired for how many decades? And this
is still the only conversation that
basketball commentators can get up
there, so we want this messy
conversation. So, I wanted to throw out,
hey, is he really that good? Like, I
almost wanted the England guys to be
like, no, we blew that. Instead, they
were like, oh my god, it was Jesus on
the pitch. It was like, no, it wasn't.
You guys just didn't do anything. Um,
but like he didn't seem that amazing to
me. But the flip side of that is I know
that he has this Steph Curry like
effect. You could see him bend the
center of gravity on the pitch because
everybody's going after him. And in that
sense, like I would bring up maybe
Norway and some of these other teams
that, you know, made it much further
than y'all's model said because if you
you don't necessarily have to have a
goat, but if you have Erling Holland
there in the center, apparently that can
also move gravity a little bit and can
change things. And I also just want to
say like, you know, looking at your
guys' first prediction, you got three
out of the four finalists. You had
France versus Portugal, I think, in the
final, right? And then the third place
round was was Spain, England. So that's
three out of four finals. I think the
way that the model actually failed the
most, the one to account for are things
like Norway, Egypt, Cape Verde, which
didn't get a mention in the report at
all and might turn out to be the
defining story of the World Cup in the
long run, the one that has the most
universal appeal. And none of these
teams got to the final. Like in the end,
Marco's material constraints, y'all's
modeling actually worked. Like you were
pretty much all the way there. But the
journey there, like you couldn't really
like get those those major stories that
came out. So, okay, there's a few bombs
I threw in. Take it whatever direction
you want. Yeah, maybe I'll react. So, I
mean, I think the thing to to recognize
is that he might be Jesus, but he's like
39y old Jesus. Like, I think it's the
fact that he was playing like this is
inconceivable. Like, no other 39year-old
has ever played like this. I think we're
looking at the top scorers and it was
like Messi and then you had like a bunch
of like early 20s guys like Mbappe,
Holland, uh, Harry Kane. So like nobody,
you know, Argentina wasn't really a
favorite like this workup because
everybody's like, "Hey, like their team
is old and their best player is 39."
>> Uh, so there's some of that. Uh, I think
what you mentioned is actually quite
accurate, not only because of the
gravity, but also because the effect
that it has on the teammates. Um, so
most people, for example, like Argentina
is a great example, like most of those
guys, um, they're now older, but they're
much younger than Messi. And people
might not believe Messi's Jesus. I
guarantee you that his teammates in
Argentina literally believe that he's
Jesus and like not in a figurative
sense. And so that obviously gives them
a lot of, you know, a lot of belief. Uh,
and you saw how like Argentina, you
know, in most of their games they kind
of like push really hard at the end. So,
so yeah, I think there's definitely like
an element to that that's important.
>> Yeah, I would definitely agree with
that. And I mean the one thing I would
say is I don't like if you it's very not
hard to know the counterfactual but if
you look at Argentina's path it was
objectively maybe not but subjectively
like the easiest path to the semi-final
for by any team. So, and then there's
obviously
the refs and I don't know, we don't want
to turn conspiracy theorists here, but
there was a lot of decisions that went
into the favor of of Lionel Messi and
there is obviously some benefit to FIFA
to push this narrative. So, you could
argue that, you know, without Messi,
Argentina would have, you know, lost in
the round of 16 or something. I think
that's not inconceivable, especially
when you see how they performed against
some of the better teams, even against
England. Like, yeah, they won, but they
didn't really do much until the last 10
minutes. And like Jacob said, England
probably more gave it away than
Argentina really winning it. So, I guess
the the biggest question is kind of,
okay, what about Spain next year? Like,
do we keep the winner's curse variable?
And I do think I mean you probably would
have said made the argument back in 2010
when they won that oh this a great team
like they're going to be great for a
long time and then they failed miserably
in the group stage next time. But I'm
also inclined to kind of think it's a
pretty young team similar to kind of the
France team that won in 2018 and that
then went back to the final. Um and it's
a pretty welloiled mechanism. So
obviously there can be a wrench thrown
into that, but if the World Cup stays,
you know, uh 48 or maybe 64 team
tournament, there's a good chance they
make it out of the group and then go on
a decent run once again.
>> Well, yeah, let me let me come back to
you, Jeremy. I just want to unpack a
couple of things there before we move on
to what, you know, the model might have
gone wrong and how is a 39year-old
crushing it. Just want to say one more
thing that you guys didn't mention, but
I know you guys thought about it.
Substitutions.
Like when I was a kid, you had two
substitutions. I remember when they
added the third was like a big deal. Now
we've got like I don't even know how
many. There's like a plethora of
substitutions. Five substitutions.
And it really helps I think um with deep
teams. It helps big nations. It helps uh
but it also helps older players because
um you know they they they can walk
because they've got fresh teammates to
do to carry the water for them, you
know, to be the water carrier. So that's
one thing I wanted to just add to that.
Um and Jeremy, like I I want to hear
what you want to say. Maybe you wanted
to take the conversation somewhere else,
which is fine. We can come back to this.
But I found it interesting that Robert,
your instinct was to introduce Spain to
this conversation 20 [ __ ] minutes
after we started. You know, in other
words, like, yeah, we had them in the
semi-finals. Yes, the model accounted
for them even better. Like, we weren't
ignoring Spain, but I think everybody
kind of was ignoring Spain, which is
crazy cuz they were the Euro champion.
It was kind of like, yeah, they're
there, but they're not cool. You know, I
want to talk about Mbappe. You know, I
want to talk about this incredible
French team. I want to talk about
England, which has probably the most
likable team it's ever had. I want to
talk about Messi. I want to talk about
But Spain is just this welloiled
machines, interchangeable parts, you
know, like none of them are really I
mean they're they are superstars. Just
Yamal like Yamin Yamal, sorry. Lamin
Yamal, I always butcher his name. He's
cool cuz he's like 17. But the truth is,
you know, when you think about Spain,
nobody really spent a lot of time
talking about them. Um, and that's
interesting to me. And I wonder whether
in this world where you can have so many
substitutions,
a country that just produces
interchangeable talent has, you know,
um, sort of an edge in everyone else.
>> Jeremy, go ahead. I interrupted you.
>> Yeah, no worries. I mean, a couple of
things and I'll start perhaps by uh
countering a bit of what you said. Right
before the World Cup started, Spain had
the highest odds according to betting
markets to win the World Cup. It's just
that it flipped the moment they drew
against uh Cab and that was really a
defining moment because you see Spain
high expectations. They I think they
ended up it was uh like 000 against Cab
and everyone was freaking out. I
remember watching.
>> Yeah.
>> And by the way, ju just to double click
on that, one of the reasons for that is
that that is the flaw of tikit taka. You
tick taka yourself to death and you
can't score. So yeah, that was like, oh,
here he comes. It's the usual way this
fails.
>> Exactly. And so a couple of points I
wanted to make like one last point about
Messi and then we can move on. Uh I
think there was two versions of Messi we
saw at this workup. There was really
Messi from the group stage and I was
quite surprised. I think if you look at
the number of minutes he played out of
the three games, I think he he played
all of them, which was I I think was
amazing. Uh but then once he moved, you
know, once they moved to the knockout
stage, I think that this I don't know if
it if he was tired, if it was just too
many minutes played. Uh but eventually,
I think his his impact on the game
started to decrease somewhat. also could
be that the the intensity and the the
level of opposition was higher. And the
last thing perhaps on on Spain, uh I
think another factor other than the fact
that if we compare Spain 2010, so the
World Cup winners 2010, World Cup
winners 2026. I think Robert nailed it.
The average age of the team is much
lower today than was in 2010. 2010 the
Spanish team had brought I mean they had
reached the the pinnacle of football art
but it was also a team that was peak
maturity.
Spain 2026 I think the average age is 23
24 years old which is I mean which is
very young. The second thing I think uh
will help Spain avoid the winners curse
four years from now is the fact that uh
unlike many other teams most of the guys
on the squad they play together at club
level. So not only that so you find a
lot of Barcelona players. I think before
the World Cup started people were upset
that there was no Real Madrid players.
Turns out you know it was uh probably
beneficial. But not only a lot of those
guys play together all season long. So
in other words, you put them you take
them out of Barcelona, you put them on
the Spanish squad, same same, you know,
they can play, you know, they know, they
just know how to play together. And on
top of that, most of those guys have
been playing together since youth teams,
which is not the case for many other
national teams.
>> Can I make one more observation? Um, and
what I think maybe what I'm thinking
what we should change for the model next
time around. I do think like there's
obviously an I a reason to have a group
stage and a knockout stage model because
it's somewhat different games and
different things matter. But what I I'm
thinking about now that, you know, we
got the semi-finals right, but then it's
kind of stopped working. And so what I'm
thinking is we might need to have again
a separate version with some different
variables for the semifinal and final
because I do think the other thing where
Spain really excels is not in these kind
of group stage games against complete
underdogs that just park the bus, but
they excel when they can like play
against in in Argentina, in France, in
England where the other team is willing
to actually play as well. Um, and so I
do think that's something that we should
definitely test next time around is what
are the factors that decide those like
very last games. Like if you look at
France, like their attack was amazing.
That was perfect for all these kind of
weaker teams. But when then when they
met Spain, they realized their midfield
isn't strong enough to keep up with with
with Spain. So the attackers didn't have
the ball. So it didn't do anything for
you that you had Mbappe, etc. up front
because they never really had a touch on
the ball. Um, and so I do think that's
the one thing that I'm would definitely
look into changing for next time is what
are the variables that matter more. And
for example, one could be actually
midfield and control of the midfield,
which at the moment we don't have the
midfield rating in our our model in
either the group or the knockout stage.
>> No, it's true. Or maybe you want to you
might want to adjust um the quality of
the opponent, which is funny, you know,
cuz you would think the worse the
quality, the more likely you're to win.
But as you point out, Spain plays like a
boa constrictor. It it strangles teams
to death with that, you know, midfield
is packed. They uh they defend very
high. And uh the problem is you can't
kill that which is already dead.
Like you can't strangle somebody who
doesn't breathe. And so when you come up
and you've got 10 dudes in the box
defending against a ball constrictor,
what's the point? It doesn't matter. You
can have the best midfielders in the
world, like the opponent is not meeting
you in the midfield at all. Um and
that's when you need those big strikers,
you know, you got to like cross into the
box and and like Spain just didn't have
that. Um, and Torres was also just kind
of terrible, you know, [laughter] until
he scored the main goal. So maybe that
was part of it. Um, all right. So
>> I also just just before we leave it, I
just want to point out that like every
one of the teams that might have
surprised the upside against your model.
Like you don't have to call it the goat
factor. Maybe call it the center of
gravity factor, but almost every single
one of them was one of these teams that
had one of these centers of gravity.
Like Norway is one of them. Egypt a
little bit less so, but still like you
still had like one or two really really
good players and they built everything
around it. The reason I did the Zag on
Messi also is in part like sure he's the
GOAT, but this time around he was like
Allen Iverson um playing against the
Lakers in the finals. Like they had to
build a team completely around him in
order to get into the position that he
was in. And so Argentina like maybe shot
itself in the foot because they
literally couldn't do anything else
besides rough it up and like let Messi
put in some shots. Anyway, the point I'm
just making is like you have these like
these teams like Spain, Switzerland felt
like this too where it's a team and
they're going to rise and fall together.
And then you have, you know, France has
Mbappe and England has these two guys
and and Argentina has these two guys.
And it's interesting to see the team
square off against the centers of
gravity. And one of the reasons why
maybe Spain could avoid the curse that
you're talking about is with Yamal
coming up, they can do that next time.
Like yes, they can do the boa
constrictor thing, but they're going to
have a dude if if he stays healthy
because righty wasn't healthy in this
one. If if he stays healthy in four
years, maybe they can do both. Maybe
they can switch back and forth between
these things. Maybe they can figure out
how to do that. But I I noticed that
tension very much. There are these team
these these team oriented ones where
it's all about the style and the
closeness and then it's just the hey,
we've got a Viking. We're going to put
him right here in the middle and
everything is about get the ball to the
Viking. We have to get the ball to the
Viking and if we do that, we have a
puncher's chance. I also just want to
point out before we leave it um that
Cape Verde goalie is 40 years old. So if
Messi is incredible uh Vzena at 40, the
blue shark like he he should also get a
shout out for performing at a high level
pass.
>> All right. Uh okay. So let's uh let's go
down the line. Uh I don't know who wants
to start, but um what were the two
things you did not like about this uh
World Cup?
>> I mean I can start Jeremy. Yeah, go
ahead. No, no, please. No, please go
ahead.
>> Uh, I mean I I will start with probably
I mean and it's inspiring because one of
your other segments is what's the most
geological thing and for me the thing I
I I like the least was uh the Trump call
[laughter]
that uh allowed or that pressured FIFA
into uh withdrawing the red card for uh
Balul the the US uh the the US team
forward. So that was by far uh the thing
the thing I I like the least. Uh I'm
still quite upset about it. Not not so
much I don't care that it's for you know
like I like the player like I I follow
him closely. He plays he plays in in
France with Monaco amazing player but I
thought this was this was just too much.
It was just it was just we know there is
always a little bit of you know and I'll
I'll try to be uh to be nice. There's a
lot always a little bit of corruption
and and things that you know you can't
explain, but this one it was just so out
in the open and I I just felt oh my god
please Trump leave football alone alone.
Just focus on anything else. Leave
football alone. So that was the f the
first thing. The second thing uh the
water breaks like it's just I I don't
get it. And I've seen a lot of
commentaries about people in stadiums
where, you know, it was chill. Like
there it's not like you actually needed
to take breaks like they did, you know,
like during the World Cup in Q or when
you play in some countries where it's
actually really hot. Uh I I didn't like
it as a as a you know, watching you know
those games on TV. I didn't like those
extra breaks. I think it also added an
element of strategy to it, you know,
which might be good because essentially
you start playing two halftimes, you
play four quarter times. So it allows uh
the managers to, you know, operate
different, you know, operate changes
more rapidly than they usually can. So I
like this the strategic element. I
didn't like how it really cut the game.
Uh and I I feel like even for the
players, I felt bad. like I I thought it
was it was really unnecessary and once
again motivated by I think revenues
rather than uh than than football.
>> Can I counter on these two?
>> Can I can I defend
>> the TDSDS coming? Here it comes. Here we
go. What? 32 minutes. Okay.
>> Actually, so I'm I'm not going to defend
that. Like whatever, you know. I'm just
going to uh somebody said this is what
aboutism, you know. Oh well, yeah, it is
what aboutism. Okay, so for hysterical
historical and hysterical perspective in
2002 World Cup, South Korea got to the
semi-finals basically because FIFA just
bribed bribed the refs. Let's let's be
[ __ ] honest. They beat Spain, a great
Spain team, and they beat Italy, a great
Italy team that four years later wins
the World Cup.
and they do so because like the refs I
mean it was just astounding. So that's
that's an example of FIFA favoring the
host. And the whole point in 2002 was
like, hey, Asia has a lot of people.
We need to make sure that they really
double click on soccer, on football.
Like we need to make sure that like the
Japanese, the Koreans, and just Asians
in general like love football. So let's
make sure that at least one of these two
hosts, Japan and South Korea, get to the
semi. So that was like I think much
worse than giving a mediocre team their
mediocre team uh uh uh a player back.
Sorry Americans, but that those are
facts, you know. So that's the first.
The second is the fact that we've got
two World Cups in Russia and Qatar that
were clearly hosted due to bribes. You
know, like again, like America wouldn't
have beaten Belgium if you had given
them [ __ ] Messi, man. You know what I
mean? Like, let's like pump the brakes
on the relevance of this. So, I would
just say like I think that the previous
two examples, three examples are so much
worse. The whole fact that Russia got to
host after it invaded Ukraine the first
time and Qatar, which is like unlivable
in the summer. Granted, we moved the
World Cup and stuff and had air
conditioning in in stadiums, but like
those two examples are much worse, I
think, than this. I think maybe we lose
some perspective. Now, water breaks,
here's what I will say about water
breaks. Um, they have this new rule now
where like if you get injured on the on
the field on the pitch and you start
rolling on the grass like you've been
shot by a sniper and like the medical
team has to come on the field, you got
to sit out a minute. So, your team is
now playing 11 versus 10. I wonder if
that rule can stay without the water
bricks.
I think you can because these guys get
play get paid millions of dollars like
and you have five substitutes. So, man
up and just play. But the rolling on the
ground and pretending like you've been
sniped was also useful in that that was
a water break. you know, like the
trainer came on the pitch, carried the
water, everybody kind of gathered
around, opponents and the team of the
injured player. Everybody shared water,
right? While their teammate was like
rolling and then like finally
resurrected like Jesus. Um I don't know.
Like that's where I would say like the
water breaks to me almost um make it so
that we can go on with the rest of the
game without allowing anybody to have a
little break while their teammate is
like doing like a solo in an opera of
how much they're hurt. I don't know.
That's just maybe a weak counter.
>> Can I throw in just something, you know,
just quickly before we we we hear Juan
and and uh and Robert on what they
didn't like. I I have a hench that if
not for that, you know, pressure to get
the red card removed for Baligon, I feel
like it gave so much extra extra
motivation to Belgium and and quite
frankly to most teams in the world. Like
I don't think it was just Belgium
against US. I feel it was just the world
of football versus the US team. uh
before and you know I was I had like a I
had like bets on you know on the side
for the World Cup before this happened.
I had the you know I was quite confident
that the US would win against Belgium
because up until that point honestly
Belgium was quite disappointing if you
think about their the group stage pretty
fairly disappointing.
>> They've been disappointing for 20 years.
Yeah they've been disappointing for 20
years. No, no. Like if you if you think
of 2018, 2018, I mean, they lost to I
mean, they lost to France in the
semi-finals again, you know, against the
the team that would eventually win the
World Cup. So, it's just that this time
around, I think they they failed at
regenerating uh the team you have, you
know, their key players are honestly old
and now they play, you know, they still
play in Europe, but they play in Italy.
So, [laughter] you know, take it for
what it is. Uh but I thought that the US
team had the chances, you know, had a
really a really high chance at winning
this game against Belgium and and in the
end even with Balugum being back on the
field, the US team sort of I mean they
made a fool of themselves like you know
like if you remember the the goalie I
mean it was it was incredible and I
think it was because of all the the
media pressure that was onto that team
because of the decision to uh to bring
Balaboom uh back on onto the pit. pitch.
>> Yeah, they even said that. Uh, and also
like we commented on this. Jacob and I
were commenting. I mean like Belgium
just took out the belt and like it was
it was more emotion I've seen out of
Belgium like ever. So in the history of
Belgium, you know, it was like, no,
we're going to we're going to we're
going to win and we're going to I mean
that was clear from the first 10
minutes. It was really like amazing. Um,
all right. Go on or anyone else? Anyone
else? Jacob, who wants to go next? Two
things you did not like. So, Jeremy said
Trump getting involved with the red card
and water breaks. I mean, by the time
the fourth person comes, we're going to
really be searching for things we did
not like, which is fine. Uh, I like that
about this. Who else?
>> Sure. So, I'm going to copy German on
one thing, which was the water breaks. I
also, you know, didn't like them. I
actually So, I went to a game uh in
Dallas and like that stadium is like
covered and, you know, like why are you
having water breaks in when it's like
20°? Uh the other thing and I'm going to
sag a little bit here because I think
this is a lot of people didn't like the
VAR and what I didn't like was the all
the sort of like sanctimony around the
VAR. So I I did not like that people did
not like the VAR. I actually like Var.
Let me explain why.
>> Like I think people forget like the
amount of calls that used to be on call
back when there was no VAR. It was
obscene. I mean like in ' 86 like
Maradona literally score a goal with his
hand you know not that long ago like I
don't know this wasn't in the World Cup
per se but it was in the qualifiers like
France qualified also with enri scoring
with his hand and kick somebody out of
the tournament uh you know like I
understand why you know you see the you
see the sort of things in in replay and
then you might disagree with the call
like at least they're marginal like
before things that were obvious used to
get missed Uh, and so I think that I
understand why VAR might not be good on
a flow perspective. Uh, it creates like
this emotional roller coaster. It stops
the game a lot. Like I get that. But to
me there is no question like none that
the games are more fair, more just. Um,
and so that's that's what I would would
say about VAR.
I mean I I als I have to say what well
I'm obviously a bit biased but I think
the problem for me with VAR is still
that it's a bit unclear of what exactly
the rules are and not necessarily the
rules of the game itself but also when
is it used and when isn't it used and
that's the part especially the way
Germany got kicked out that I'm uh a bit
frustrated with is like the way Germany
like the goal that was disallowed that
was a goal every time for Arsenal in the
Premier League. If that wasn't allowed,
then Arsenal would have probably
finished 10th in the in the Premier
League. Like, it's just very unclear of
like when can you use it, when can't you
use it? And I think that's the thing
that that needs to be approved. The
other thing I have to say I didn't like
is and it might have a little bit to do
for with the time zone, but I thought it
was too many games. I was in the group
stage. I was waiting for the tournament
to really kick off. But then at the same
time, by the time we got to the
quarterfinal, I was like feeling a bit
exhausted of like, you know, this is the
part where you want to get really really
excited, but you've also just already
had four weeks of like 100 games. And I
thought it was a bit too much. I I got a
bit fatigued. And funny enough, like I
was watching the England uh France game
uh for the round of uh sorry for the
third place here in the UK. Nobody
cared. Literally nobody cared. We were
in the pub. It was like okay it was 10
p.m. but it was on a Saturday.
>> We were the case for every you know
third place match. I mean I would you
remember like is there a memorable third
third uh third place match that you know
from the past World Cups?
>> Oh, they're all
memorable.
>> I was I remember Germany third place in
2006 when they hosted the World Cup
against Portugal. Like that was I
remember that and that was still a big
thing like and you know I mean you don't
have to really care but I was literally
we were like the only people in the pub
watching this game. like people left
throughout the game. By the end of the
game, the pub was empty. And that was
like I've heard that from multiple
people. Like I think it was just like
people were like enough of this World
Cup. Like we've we've seen enough of
soccer.
>> Although Robert I I think that might
have been because of the way England
lost in the first like there was such it
caused such depression in the country
that like I think that probably had
something to do with it.
>> I think that I did not like the
substitutions.
Okay. So I I get it. It allows, you
know, Messi to play at 53,
[laughter]
you know, uh, great. We can have guys
come in for the last like 15 minutes
and it's it's useful to make like
tactics become more interesting. The
problem is that I think um it makes it
really difficult
um to surprise and for smaller teams to
kind of excel. I actually think that's
one of the problems. Uh this was I think
the first World Cup where the top four
seated got to the semi-finals. Correct
me if I'm wrong about that uping. So um
and you know like felt like at the
beginning it felt oh you know Cape Verie
Kuraka like sweet cool interesting but
not not really like it was just like
expanded and so some small countries
that m that did a really extraordinary
job of recruiting expats and God bless
him for that but like you know what did
they do nothing they did nothing they
out
>> no they fizzled out like it was cool
story
>> come drive by a cape fair cur Yeah.
Okay. Go for it.
>> No, I mean like you know like we we have
had teams like Turkey, South Korea.
Okay. That was FIFA being corrupt, but
like we had South Korea, Turkey, we've
had Portugal, we've had Belgium, we've
had Croatia in the semi-finals. Uh
Croatia is a country of 4 million
people. Um that's cool. And I think it's
going to be really difficult to do that
if you let teams come in with two
squads. You know who who who has two
squads? Like nobody. So that was I think
one of the things that I thought um was
unfortunate. The other one
>> if I go ahead
>> you know I agree with you too many
substit substitutions although when you
look at uh when you take the knockout
stage I think that's where it makes
sense. So group stage I'm 100% with you
let's reduce it bring it back to three
let's say but once you reach the
knockout stage and we've seen it in this
workup many games went into extra time.
So,
>> but that's awesome, Jeremy, though. But
I No, listen. Like, but that is
football. That's like I mean, look,
maybe I'm just older than everyone here,
and that's fine. like I'm just an old
guy on a porch like knocking back and
forth. But like look I like
yeah if you have the whole team relying
on Messi and that's your whole strategy
you should lose
to Egypt because you can't do the
substitutions and you can't keep fresh
legs around him. Like that's what used
to happen. Teams got punished because
they, you know, were too old. They got
punished because they couldn't go into
the overtime with and and then what also
happened is cool [ __ ] happened, you
know, like breakaway goals happened. Uh
mistakes happened. Um awesome like fouls
happened, you know, because the
36year-old over the hill past expiration
date center back gets paired up with a
21-year-old Michael Owen and you're
like, "Oh, [ __ ] How do I catch him? I
can't. Red card. Let's go." like that
[ __ ] kind of happened, you know, and we
don't have that because everyone was
fresh, everyone was awesome, everyone
was shredded. Um, it allows us to
protect these unique, wonderful players
that Jacob loves, but it also like I
think has really changed football more
than anything else
because we want mistakes. You know,
Jeremy's point is like, well, yeah, but
like then the game gets better. And I'm
like, I don't want the game to get
better. I want it to become chaos. you
know, I wanted to become complete and
utter disaster. Um, anyways, I don't
know. So, but that's also just be me
being old. The other thing that I um I
think America has the greatest stadiums
on the planet. Like there's not even
like it's not even close. Uh I attended
the Canada South Africa game in LA and I
mean SoFi is just a [ __ ] temple, you
know? Um, and the only issue is that,
and I don't know how you fix this
because it's the World Cup and it's got
to be hosted somewhere, but these
stadiums are so massive that it was
funny because in that stadium of 70,000
people, like 62,000 were Mexican fans
and they were so bored with this MLS
quality game that was quite frankly like
like I mean it was a terrible game, you
know, Canada versus South Africa. You
don't know who's worse. Um, but like
they were so bored. 62,000 people. Now
you guys are watching on TV, so I'm sure
they were showing this section of
Canadian fans who were like really into
it. I can tell you I was there. Nobody
heard him. Nobody heard them. There
[laughter] was like what you heard was
62,000 Mexicans being like, "Oh man,
this sucks. I can't I paid 3K to go to
an MLS game and then trying to do uh the
Mexican wave." You know, that was the
biggest the most the biggest roar in the
crowd came not when Canada scored a
goal. It was when finally we got the
Mexican wave going and it was successful
and like the stadium blew up. Uh so I
don't know. I mean, I don't want to say
I don't like that because I think having
70,000 fans is awesome even for random
games, but the experience in the stadium
in that game was was pretty bad.
Um, I guess this I'm just I'm just good
at finding things that are wrong with
things. It's the Larry David in me.
Y'all didn't even touch my list. So,
I've got a few here. Um, the first the
first is, by the way, I'm amused that
you guys are so anti-water breaks. It's
like we're all analysts sitting at our
desks typing things and we're like,
these worldass athletes, they shouldn't
be allowed to take a water break in
Miami where it's like 95% humidity and
95 degrees. It's like, it's okay for
them to have a two and a half minute
water break. I was okay with that. Um,
just just poking a little fun there. By
the way, cousin, you're right that most
US stadiums are amazing. The Meadowlands
is not a temple. Like the final should
not have been in New York. It should
have been at the Aztec or like some
place that was better. Like that was a
fool. Like I'm I'm sure somebody got a
bribe there that allowed that to happen.
That was annoying. Okay, but my list of
things
>> bribes in New Jersey like that. That's
never happened.
>> Never happened before. Ever. Um I said I
went to the Argentina England game. One
of the things I was most looking forward
to was the national anthems. I thought
it was going to be so cool. This moment
of respect before the match starts.
England anthem was supposed to be first.
The Argentina fans that were there, so
I'm not going to say this is all of
Argentina, but the Argentina fans that
were at this match, and by the way, that
stadium was roughly 85% Argentina. There
were not a lot of Americans there. You
had the the English guys dressed up as
the knights in the funny costumes and
then it was like 85% Argentina. That was
the room. Um, but they booed and
whistled through the English national
anthem and then of course the English
got pissed off and so the Argentine
couldn't hear the an couldn't hear
either team's anthem and it it made it
so the feeling in the stadium was kind
of mean. Um, like I didn't really feel
any of the tension until that moment and
I just hated that moment for both sides
for the audience. It just felt like it
felt antithetical to everything the
World Cup was supposed to stand for and
Argentina seemed to be at the center of
of those sorts of things throughout this
tournament. So I did not like that at
all. Um, I can't believe none of y'all
said this. I hated halftime of the World
Cup final. What was this, the Super
Bowl? Why is Justin Bieber and all these
guys coming out to do songs in the
middle of the half? And I the watch
party I was with was like, "This is so
cool." It's not cool. If I wanted to
watch football, I'd go watch football.
I'm here to watch the World Cup, not
this. That really that really got me.
>> But Jacob, Jacob, like like you know,
you you you got to be thankful because
thanks to that crappy show, halftime
show, it provided us with like an
amazing meme where you see Ronaldo R9
driving that little car and and you can
tell he doesn't know what he's doing
here.
>> That was the highlight of that of that
halftime show. Like I'm so I'm still
thankful for that. I don't like it, you
know, but that was so hilarious. So, I
think you have to look at it with a bit
of a, you know, like a bit of sarcasm
and and and if you do an irony and then
you enjoy it.
>> That's nice. I I like the glass half
full, but I thought it was stupid. I I
was like, "Come on, guys." Almost as
stupid as Tom Cruz's little monologue. I
don't know what the heck Tom Cruz was
doing at the beginning there, just like
talking into the ether. Um, and then
I'll add a third, and I can't believe
none of you brought this up, but this is
also very geopolitical. Um, and this is
before the Belgium stuff and the way
Trump inserted himself and the way he
was dancing in front of the Spanish
team. Like, that's classic Trump. he
just wants the attention and the
attention will be there. the way the US
the US government treated the Iranian
team was shameful and the karma that
came from that and and for for those who
don't know at first they were maybe not
going to let them have their visa to
come play in the United States when then
they when they finally allowed them to
they wouldn't let them spend the night
in Los Angeles they had to play the
match and then get straight on a plane
and get sent straight back to Mexico to
sleep which is okay like it's not the
worst thing to happen in the world but
just no generosity of spirit no
willingness to say these players are
not, you know, theocratic thugs who are
bombing people or terrorists, right?
They're soccer players. The whole point
of this is to bring people together. If
you want to bring down the Islamic
Republic, you want these soccer players
to hang out in LA and have a good time
and meet with the Iranians that are in
Los Angeles. I just thought it was such
a such a petty, meaningless, and
vindictive show of force from the US
government, and it pissed me off way
more than the FIFA stuff. Like, FIFA and
the Trump administration were made for
each other. like okay like I'm not so
and I did some background on FIFA like
of course like this is a corrupt
organization like stop stop with the you
know the the puress of the ethics of
football like whatever but like the way
that the US treated Iran um just
shameful like I think history will
remember that as a stain on the on the
record of the United States as a host
>> and it actually extends beyond just the
treatment to Iran like a a lot of I mean
many other national teams experienced uh
issues with uh visas and entering the
us. Um I mean top of my mind I think
Sagal they were missing
>> half of the members of their staff. So
players got through no problem. I think
they're missing half of the member of
the staff including uh the cook uh and
and it was a big I mean it was a big uh
issue for the for for the Sagal team. uh
they complained about it obviously had
an impact on the quality of their uh you
know group stage uh games and I think
and I can't remember right now but other
teams had similar issues with late visas
I mean visas being delivered at the last
minute which obviously also had a
negative impact on uh on the games.
>> Okay, was that it Jacob? Was that your
letter David list? We can move on.
[laughter] That was
>> okay. So, um, things that, uh, we liked
about the World Cup, you know. Um, so
I'm going to start us off because this
is going to be controversial.
I like the fact that we expanded the
teams,
okay? And I liked it because
because a lot of the teams that were
laughed at pre-World Cup ended up being
decent. like I mean not like again not
great and a lot of things went against
him in the later stages including the
substitutions and the depth of you know
established teams but like why not have
kept cap and kura and by the way these
are countries that have gotten really
good like their federations did a really
good job they went out they found the
expats that were maybe born elsewhere
off the scent and uh you know like when
I looked at the rosters
of most of the teams like it was kind
shocking how they really had players
playing in really good leagues. Um,
other than like kind of the usual
suspects, you know, like Saudi team
plays in the Saudi league. All the fine
like Saudi league is of course improving
quality. There's a few examples like
that. But for the most part, you know,
you had really interesting, cool players
that otherwise would not have made the
World Cup, but they made it because it
expanded. Now, so I have a suggestion
for next one. All right. So, what's the
what's the plan right now to expand to
60 something or
>> what's the plan?
>> 64. Okay. So, I'm actually here's my
proposal to FIFA. Expand to 88.
Okay. Hear me out. Hear me out. 24
teams, 24 like back in the old days,
qualify for the World Cup and they get
placed into groups.
And for the last eight slots to make 32
teams, you have a [ __ ] March Madness
style 64 round robin tournament where
like Kuraka has to play like Slovenia,
you know, and we get to the elite eight
of that tournament and those eight then
get seated into the groups. And so we
kind of, you know, I got inspired by
this um plan to have in 2030 several
games in South America to honor the 100
years of the Uruguay World Cup hosted,
you know, in 1930. And I was like, why
don't we just do that again? You want
more countries to play in the World Cup?
Do a round robin. 64 teams, boom, pick a
country for that tournament and then
those eight teams just go and play in
the other group. That would be my
solution. And then you can say 88
countries played in the World Cup. There
you go.
>> I like it.
>> All right. Um, what else did you guys
like?
What was cool? What was interesting?
What made you actually excited about
this World Cup?
>> So, I mean, you know, not at the
beginning of the tournament, but I think
and you mentioned it uh Marco, the
stadiums. I mean, for anyone anyone
who's been to stadiums in in in Europe,
you you watch the that World Cup and
you're just amazed. And it wasn't just
the stadiums in in in the US, by the
way. Even I mean, obviously, you look at
the Aka, you see some of the the
stadiums in in Mexico and you're just,
you know, blown away. It was the, you
know, the infrastructure was just
amazing. So now obviously there's the
the issue of like what was the average
you know uh ticket price compared to
previous workups you know I'm not
getting into that but just the overall
um uh level of instructure it was really
impressive and you know I grew up in
France we we have crappy stadiums like
literally even you know even the best
French team at the moment PSG the
stadiums is you know is is it's an
historical building like we love but
it's it's like 40,000 seats and it's
it's been around for like 60 plus years.
So, that was one thing I really like.
The second thing uh I really like and it
was new a new format, but I really like
the fact that all the players from each
team, even the the people on the bench
would actually stand up and and and be,
you know, uh able to sing the end. I
really like that. I don't know it
before. It's like like it's up because
people are on the bench that they
shouldn't be able to, you know, sing the
anthem, which is so I I also I mean it's
a minor thing, but uh I thought it was a
it was a nice addition to the to the
FIFA.
>> Um so I would agree with Jeremy. So uh
the game I went to was in Jerry World
and I had never been to a stadium like
that. Uh just incredible stadium,
gigantic screen. I think it's 80,000
people capacity. Uh it was full you know
I went to Japan Netherlands game it was
full of fans all singing uh yeah truly
truly incredible infrastructure the US
has
>> I think the spectacle also is what I
liked and I mean you know my first World
Cup that I watched religiously as a kid
as an 8-year-old was 1990 in Italy and
it was the the ceremony like the anthems
the flags that kind of got me into
geopolitics. I mean, there was other
things going on that got me into it, but
like I always like that part of the
World Cup. Um, but I just like what
America is truly best at in the world.
Like this is like where it's
unparalleled,
this is where it's still a uniolar world
is like production value,
you know, like like for example, if you
watch like Euro League basketball, like
production is just like off. It's just a
little off, you know? like like the
advertising, the court, the lighting,
the stadium, they try to raise the bar,
the Europeans, in terms of like
production value. And when they do, it
just like looks even worse,
you know, where Americans are just the
best at producing
entertainment. And so like the whole
like the camera angle, the flags,
Rihanna, you know, belting titanium,
like let's go. That was incredible the
way that that was done. Of course, you
guys didn't like the halftime show and
that's fine.
>> I'm I'm the Kermage in there. Like, get
Rihanna. I don't need Rihanna out here,
please.
>> We don't We don't need that either. But
like just the way Yeah, I I don't
disagree with that, Jacob. But like
everything else, I think was done better
than any other World Cup ever. It was
just like dialed in.
[snorts]
>> I I was so impressed by those those guys
who would run out with the flag every
single time. Those flags were huge. like
how many times did they have to practice
to run out there with the flag and how
many different crews did they I mean
they could have subbed in for some of
those teams the way they were running
and how efficient they were.
>> Um I'll mention one thing that I really
like and this a little bit opposite to
what Jacob said that he didn't like. Um
I think the drama and the stakes uh and
you know Jacob was saying you know like
you have this wonderful event that is
supposed to unite people. Uh no the
workup is not supposed to unite people
supposed you're supposed to win. And I
think this is the South American in me,
but like people in in football, like in
South America for example, they are
generally very cordial with each other,
the only place where they're able to
kind of like express that nationalism
and that animosity is in football. And
so like you ask anybody like in South
America, they hate Argentina. Like they
hate them like in at a very deep level.
They hate Uruguay. Uh they hate Brazil.
And so, you know, I like that the
intensity of the games, the fact that we
had so much controversy. I think that
like, you know, that you have Trump
saying, "Hey, you know what? Like, screw
you. We're going to we're going to kind
of like keep our guy because we can."
Uh, and also that you have as you get
like further in the stages, you have
like teams be like very physical with
each other. Uh, I think personally I
found that great. Uh, and I actually
find that as a something that I like
about the work.
>> Yeah. I mean to for the record I'm not
anti the drama. I would just say like um
that England Argentina match and you
know this is this is one anecdote so it
it kind of goes and also England and
Argentina have a very unique
relationship and there's the Faullands
and there's everything else that goes
with that but the national anthem thing
started like it it cast a Paul over the
the environment in the room. And I mean
I'm not exaggerating at least four
fights broke out around me at the end of
the match. And I mean like you know
dudes squaring up and actually landing
punches. There was this one woman that
was throwing drinks at some of the these
England fans and she was going through
the tunnel and these these England fans
were pelting her with like really heavy
like water bottles and beer can uh beer
bottles and things like that. There was
this one English high school kid who
started dumping a beer over an Argentine
woman's head as she's running through
the tunnel. And actually, shout out to
this English dad because this dad picked
his kid up by the the the sleeves on his
shoulder and shoved him in a chair and
started yelling at him about how like
that's not how you're supposed to
behave. And I wanted to be like, that's
how we that's how we dad. Like that's a
father right there telling his like son
who's broken. Like they're all broken
inside cuz England just watched and he
still has the wherewithal to be like sit
the [ __ ] down and you're not throwing
anything at these Argentines. But like
I'm cool with the stakes and the drama,
but like when people are punching each
other around you after the match like
that, like it was not cool. It was it
felt it felt bad.
>> But you know, to be to be clear, like I
think that's gotten a lot better though,
Jacob. like, you know, for for the rest
of us on this, you know, who have been
like watching football since we were
like before we could speak English, uh,
which is the three of us on this podcast
here. Um, it was so much worse. It was
so much worse. In like 1990 when the
World Cup was in Italy, there's a famous
documentary about this. There's a real
concern that English hooligans, you
know, England was like coming back to
the world stage after being banned after
a couple of like really bad incidents.
And there was real concern, you know,
that this was going to like result in
deaths, like massive just blood on the
streets. And I think that this is where
a lot of people um regret how expensive
these World Cup tickets are.
>> But I do think on some level, and this
is going to sound incredibly snobby and
elitas for me, but on some level, like
he just keeps the riff raff out, you
know? Sorry, this is definitely like let
him eat cake Marco moment, but you know
like huligans tend to not pay 3k for you
know a seat. So I walked in with my
daughter into a World Cup game. Granted
between two teams that definitely are
not going to start you know fighting but
there was like zero concerns like
there's no concern of security in a lot
of these games. And I think that's
awesome. I think that's that's
incredible that we've gotten to that
point. Um yeah, you're just you don't
have the kind of violence that has been
associated with football like at all.
>> But this is I mean on the one hand I
want to agree with you Marco but on the
other hand you have a lot of leagues you
know especially in Europe where tickets
you know are pretty cheap and yet you
don't you know you can still go to the
stadium with your kids and you know
you'll have a good time. Like think
about Germany like you know if you
Bundesliga you can go to stadiums
they're full they have the highest you
know rate of attendance in in Europe or
even in the world nothing will ever
happen to you. So, I think it's, you
know, I feel like it's really more of a
problem for some national teams or or or
some nationalities
um than, you know, I don't think the,
you know, having higher more expensive
uh tickets will
>> No, you're right.
>> I think it penalizes
>> it penalizes, you know, the the greater
number because of the actions of a of a
few.
>> No, you're actually right. I think uh I
definitely came off way too elitist. And
I will say this, I think you're
absolutely right because I remember the
first time I ever went to a game and and
what a way to be introduced to football.
It was in Belgrade. I'm I think I'm like
six, seven years old and it's Red Star
versus Partisan like and I remember my
dad would always whether we watch
basketball or football have us sitting
in the aisle
and always like behind the goal or
behind the basket. And I was always
like, "But dad, I want to be in the
middle." Like, you know, why can't we be
in the middle? And he was always like,
"This is the easiest way to exit the
stadium." Like, [laughter] and I was
like, "Why does that matter?" And then
the game would start and I'll be like,
"Oh, okay." And you're right. Like, uh,
so like, you're totally right. I don't
think it's monetary. I scratch my other
comment. I think you're right. It's
cultural. I think we've become less
violent
in sports. Like, I tourists go to
Belgrade now to watch Partisan versus
Red Star. like this is a tourist
attraction. Tickets are like €200 euros
to go sit in a stadium and watch this
because it's cool and because the the
fans themselves choreograph these, you
know, what would have seen as very
threatening and violent this place,
they're now like actually cool and fun
and it's not violent at all. Um, so
that's cool. I mean, I think that
evolution of football is really cool.
>> Yeah, I I hope you guys are right. I I
was after after attending England
Argentina, I was grateful that the US
and Iran didn't face each other. because
I'm not sure.
>> Oh, no. Nothing would have happened.
Nothing would have happened.
>> I I don't know. You put a bunch of I
don't know. But uh
>> the support for the Iran war is below
30%. Like
>> that's I get you.
>> And the people who support the war
against Iran, I'm going to go out on my
limb uh with a high conviction view say
are not football fans and are not paying
2K to go to a game. You know what I
mean? Like those those people. One of
the amazing things about Trump, he got
Republican senators talking about uh
about FIFA and soccer and the red card
in Balagot. I mean, when Ted Cruz
walking around talking about this, it's
incredible.
>> Dudes with like um a a window print of
an American flag being torn by a bald
eagle. Like those guys are not going to
go to that game, you know? Like I I just
think like I think that would have been
actually I think if US had played Iran
that would have been maybe the best
game. And I and I feel like the American
fans would have actually been incredibly
generous. So to your point, Jacob, you
know, your earlier point, you know,
saying that the way that the American
government treated Iranian soccer
players was one of the things you didn't
like. I I agree with you. But I think
that had the American fans had a chance,
you would have seen the other side of
America, which by the way, so many other
people saw. So, this is one of the other
things I would say I I really like and
and I already mentioned this to you uh
Jacob in one of our podcasts. All these
YouTube clips and videos of Europeans
running around America loving America
and being like so like pleasantly
surprised by like bies or like highways,
>> ranch dressing, cars, you know,
>> man, check out blue cheese. Like ranch
is fine, but like go get you some wings
and some blue cheese, you know? and then
some some English guy driving in a wagon
ear and being like, "What the [ __ ] is
this?" you know, like. So, [snorts] I
thought that was also cool. And I think
that um I think that that was
heartwarming to see. Yeah. I I want to
say a few things I liked and and the
first is not specific to the World Cup.
It's just about why soccer is so is such
a great sport. Um which is the
continuous action. Um, and it's a small
point, but it's like even with the
hydration breaks. It's like you sit down
and for 45 minutes you have to watch
like uh I'm I'm stealing this point. I
think it was from uh Bill Simmons or
somebody like in the Ringer Network was
like this is the only sport where I can
go to a bar and watch it because
everybody understands that when it's on,
we're all looking. We're watching. We're
not having conversations over here. Like
we're not doing side things. It's like
because if you turn your head away for
30 seconds, you're going to miss all the
action. And I hope I hope there is
somebody in the NBA league office who is
watching this or who is listening to
this. Basketball could be like this. If
you take away a lot of the timeouts and
the stoppages and the video blah blah
blah blah blah like you want to copy
what soccer is doing because it first of
all gives you like a set amount of time
that this match is going to go so you
know you know roughly how long you have
to be there. And number two you actually
have to focus like the stakes like you
have to put your phone down for a
second. You have to pay attention and be
in the moment. It's a wonderful thing
for that. But it's funny, you guys
talked about some of the things you
liked. For me, and maybe this just uh
betrays like who I am as an analyst,
too, cousin. Um, for me, it was like the
narratives, that Mexico England match. I
will remember that match for the rest of
my life. Like you get the red card on
England. It's like they've got however
what 30 minutes, 35 minutes, they're
down a man and they're just hunkered
down and, you know, they're having to
fend off shot after shot after shot and
I'm just like sitting up watching like
can't help myself like watching my
allegiances shift in real time because
of what they're doing. Like I thought
that was an incredible um underdog
performance under duress and how as a
team they were were able to survive
that. And you took the drive drive by
Cape Verde cousin. I thought the Cape
Verde story was amazing. This is going
to be nation changing for for Cape
Verde. Um and just the idea that you can
have like fine they didn't get to the
finals and y'all's model was right about
who got there and you have to have a big
country and infrastructure and blah blah
blah but I loved these Cinderella
stories. I loved that we got fairly far
into the tournament and you had Capefar
putting up a fight against Messi and
Argentina. You had Switzerland or like
some of these randos putting up a really
good fight until the very end and that
sort of David versus Goliath narrative
like I mean that's what it's all about.
So I I really enjoyed the narratives and
I don't know how you I mean maybe it's
because they added more teams, maybe it
was just an ex exceptional year. Uh for
me the drama was in that we didn't quite
know what was going to happen that you
did have this Norway team that came out
of nowhere with the rowing and like that
those narratives did really well and
it's going to be very hard I like that's
not about production values it's just
you had compelling people and compelling
national narratives competing on a
global stage in a real in a really great
way like those those things will stay
with me for a long time.
All right. So, [clears throat]
uh, last segment. The most geopolitical
>> we got to do in 12 minutes because I got
to get out of here in 12 minutes.
>> Yes. Yes. Same here. So, okay. So, first
of all, Robert had to uh leave us um to
go work and make money uh while the rest
of us have fun on Thank you, Robert. Um
so his point was his point was um he
[clears throat] thought it was very
interesting that when Belgium
got basically um you know put into the
situation where the best player on the
US squad was rescued by the US president
the Europeans did not do anything about
it. They did not band together the
federations UEFA. UEFA is the European
Federation and often has slightly
antagonistic relationship with FIFA
which is global. And [clears throat] so
uh there was nothing like nobody stood
up for the Belgiums. They had they were
on their own and Robert's point is
that's very indicative of real life as
well. So I thought it was interesting.
Um yeah, that's that was kind of the way
that uh life um in soccer in football
did resemble the geopolitical reality in
the world as well. So
>> there there was also another side of
this that I I actually brought this up
the other day and I I forget where I
brought it up, but somebody kind of
criticized me for thinking about it this
way, but you know, the United States
team could have also said, "No thanks."
Like we we don't want the help.
>> That's hard. That's
>> really hard, but like you know It's a
really good point. Even Balog good
himself, I mean, it's it's highly
controversial, but he could have said,
I'm not going to play, you know, I'm not
going to I don't agree with the the
decision. I think, you know, the the red
card I got was I mean, it was fair and
square. I I you know, we all saw how I
got, you know, the foul he committed. I
mean, Messi did something far worse in
the first game against Algeria and got
away with nothing. But see, but that's
the that's why it was so difficult to
put it on the team or the fans of the US
or Balagon himself because it wasn't
really it was it was a it was one of
those plays that's careless
like you do get penalized for this and a
lot of American football fans were like
but he didn't mean it like it doesn't
matter if you swing your leg or you fly
out of control that is a careless you
were being careless you were not yeah
like those are penalized but I do think
I think it would have been difficult
because there was no intent. And that's
where like in the NBA, this happens all
the [ __ ] time. And you know, we know
we're conditioned in basketball to know
that the commissioner of the league, his
intention is to ensure that the stars
keep playing. Like when this happens in
basketball, we're all like, "Oh, thank
God." Like when he elbowed um uh Naz
Reed, that's an automatic suspension.
That's a like that flagrant should have
carried on to the next game and the
league was like, "Nah, we're good
because we're not going to take out
Victor Webeyama in the Western
Conference Finals." Like that's just not
going to [ __ ] happen. Like, no,
sorry, semi-finals. But the point is, we
were conditioned for that in basketball,
but not in in football and in FIFA. And
so that's where I also think that
Trump's intervention like I I wonder if
FIFA would have done this anyways, but
what happened was Trump leaked that he
was the one that asked for it to be
rescended because he wanted to be the
hero just like he wanted to dance the
Trump dance with the Spanish on stage
which was one of the most hilarious
moments ever.
>> So funny. Unbelievable.
>> Okay, two more. One, Jeremy, most
geopolitical.
So had you know everything that happened
around uh Iran in the World Cup from uh
not you know at first threatening to not
participate and then participating but
not being able to access you know to
stay uh in the US and having to commute.
I don't know if the that's the proper
word but from Mexico throughout the
entire tournament. And it's a shame
because when you look back at the group
stage performance of Iran it was quite
strong. They haven't lost a single game
in the group stage, you know. So, it's a
so really and you could tell and I
watched most of of their games, they
were really committed to, you know,
putting on a good a strong performance,
a strong show. Uh, so that would be, you
know, from a geopolitical standpoint,
that would be the one that really, you
know, um u that I would highlight. The
second one in minor and very quickly, it
was the the spot that was between um a
senator from Paraguay. I don't know if
you you've heard about it who
essentially that senator went ballistic
on Mbappe and the French team with a lot
of you know racist comments. Uh and that
was I was shocked like I didn't expect
this in 2026 you know during a World Cup
from a senator from a you know so that
was that was pretty surprising to me. I
was I was shocked.
Um, I'll give my geopolitical one is
that Trump apparently wants Gian
infantino to be the chair of uh or
secretary general of the UN. So just as
geopolitics sort of like feel seeps into
soccer now we're having soccer you know
seeping into geopolitics. So I I thought
that was um it was funny. But yeah, I
think that will be mine.
>> Mine I mine is just that immigration
works, you know. I think that's, you
know, so the opposite of what the
Paraguayan senator said. Um the French
team is full of French people, you know,
uh who happen to be black, uh and who
happen to have, you know, uh backgrounds
from some other place. You know, the
Swiss team is full of immigrants and
they are Swiss and there's things
happening in Swiss identity and national
national kind of sense of self that the
success of the Swiss team has really
done like not to get on a side
sidetracked on Switzerland. Um but like
there's a lot of examples where um this
is just you know the peraguan senator
who woke up in a cave and like got out
of it and was like
um this was legislated back in 1998, you
know, 30 years ago. Like nobody really
cares about this anymore. And I think
that especially when it comes to Europe,
the the idea that European countries
have failed in immigration,
that's a little bit of an early 2000s
story, you know? So like to someone from
like South America who like doesn't
understand what's going on in Europe,
maybe to that senator and also by the
way to Chill, which was like really
demeaning. I mean, he's a former
footballer. You would think he would
know better. this is the uh president of
the Peraguen Federation who was a you
know star goalkeeper. Um but like this
is no longer really an issue in Europe
and I think that's that is really
interesting to me and I don't think we
pay enough attention to that. We paid a
lot of attention to it in the early
2000s, you know, especially when that
famous like French team like destroyed
itself, you know, like some were saying
it was along like [clears throat]
different cultural lines, the the
different groups. Well, that wasn't the
case. The the manager was just insane,
which is probably the most French thing
ever, Jeremy. You know, like the leader
was just head of Napoleonic complex like
[laughter]
uh but I think that that was really
interesting to me and I think it's
geopolitical. I think it's it's a sign
that right as every single country in
the west is limiting immigration, we're
seeing the success of it on the pitch.
>> Yeah, cuz I I hear you, cousin. Although
like uh it's funny, I have reasons to
follow the Austrian team now and like I
was looking at the Austrian team and I
was like that team looks pretty
Austrian. You can tell like there were
one or two players that did not look
Austrian, but like most Austria has a
different relationship with than some of
the other. And by the way, I mean I
don't know if this has to do Yeah. Not
the best, but I mean most of the team
and also Italy player's name is Marco in
a cake.
>> Yeah. [laughter] Yeah, I know. Italy
also nowhere to be found. Like as
somebody who's a recent arrival to
soccer, I was like, "Oh, Italy's won how
many World Cups and they're not even Did
I Did I miss them in the group stage?"
Like, no, they they're just literally
not here. But I would just think about
what you said, cousin. Um, which is that
the primacy of the nation state,
>> the health of the nation state is fine.
like people the national feelings about
these countries, the people in the
streets celebrating everybody thinking
about it. Like I I worry about the the
breakdown of the relationship between
nations and younger citizens and Gen Z.
I mean maybe there are still tons of
things that push in that direction, but
the World Cup is showing you now the
nation state is where it's at. Like
screw FIFA, screw everything else. Like
the core of this is that people feel
very passionate about their nation
states. And that's why you can't
replicate this in any kind of
professional league or in any other
particular way. like that is the secret
sauce. It is nations doing battle
against nations every four years. So
that there is something that is still
healthy in the primacy of the nation
state in the world which I'm sure the
Trump administration is very happy
about.
Is that phenito? All right. Well guys,
thank you so much. Um I look forward to
your women's World Cup report that
you're going to produce next year. Yeah.
And you got to do the Euros and you got
to do the Champions League. Like you're
going to have to do this through
multiple iterations. Like don't just
think this is a onetrick pony. You can
you can
[laughter]
>> all of us have a real job trying to
forecast the markets. So uh I'm just
going to put a pin in that and say no.
We do men's World Cup once every four
years. If if if anybody doesn't like it,
it's Trump's America now.
>> All right. Well, sounds good. Sounds
like there's opportunity out there for
other folks. Thanks all. Thanks y'all
for making the time. [music]
>> Thank you guys.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
In this episode, the hosts and guests from BCA Research recap the recent World Cup, analyzing the performance of their quantitative model, the impact of star players like Lionel Messi, and the broader geopolitical and cultural significance of the tournament. The discussion highlights the model's successes and failures, debates the role of individual 'goat' variables versus systemic factors, and explores various controversies, from officiating and FIFA's actions to stadium atmosphere and political interferences.
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