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What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)

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What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)

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2225 segments

0:04

Hello listeners, welcome to another

0:06

episode of Geopolitical Cousins. First,

0:08

some housekeeping. I know you're all

0:09

waiting for the episodes with Peter

0:11

Zion. I am waiting for them too. Um, we

0:14

are waiting on an editor to finish. It

0:16

was a fourerson conversation in person

0:19

in a room. Um, the video editor that we

0:21

used for it has been traveling Nepal

0:23

doing another video project. I don't

0:24

want to bore you with the details. It is

0:26

imminently dropping. I was hoping it was

0:28

going to drop today. It's probably going

0:29

to drop early next week. We have not

0:31

forgotten about it. You can keep

0:32

emailing me if you want and be like,

0:33

"Where is the episode?" It's coming, I

0:35

promise. Uh, patience is a virtue. Bear

0:37

with me. And thank you. Thank you for

0:38

your patience. In the meantime, uh, we

0:41

decided to do a World Cup recap episode.

0:44

So, we brought back the BCA boys back on

0:46

the show. Um, and we talked about their

0:48

model and what went right, what didn't

0:50

go right. Talked about the geopolitics

0:51

of the World Cup, the things we liked,

0:53

the things we didn't like. Um, this is a

0:54

World Cup forward episode. If you don't

0:56

want to hear about the World Cup, I

0:58

mean, I think you should. I think we did

0:59

a really good job interweaving the

1:01

geopolitics and also not just talking

1:03

about soccer, but talking about how to

1:04

analyze things. Like ultimately, this is

1:06

a conversation about how to analyze and

1:08

predict soccer and understand what's

1:10

going on when you have all these

1:11

different variables and competition and

1:13

things like that. So, I think even if

1:15

you don't like soccer, it's interesting

1:16

from that point of view. But if you are

1:18

really just sick of soccer and you don't

1:19

want to do it, like this is an episode

1:21

to skip. But I would recommend you try

1:22

it out. We will be back with our normal

1:24

geopolitical programming. Well,

1:25

hopefully we're going to get those those

1:26

Peter episodes out early next week.

1:29

We've got another books episode uh

1:30

coming and cousin and I are going to

1:32

continue to push out content as we get

1:34

into the end of the summer. Um, that's

1:37

about all I got. Uh, there's a lot going

1:39

on in the world. Uh, take care of the

1:40

people that you love. Cheers. We will

1:42

see you out there.

1:49

And I I see despite the fact that I know

1:51

least about soccer among all of you, I'm

1:52

the only one wearing a jersey right now.

1:55

So, I got my England jersey on right now

1:56

because I don't know how many more times

1:57

I'm going to be able to use this thing.

1:59

Uh, but it's nice to be with you all.

2:00

Marco, do you want to start us off?

2:02

>> Yeah, I think uh I think the way that we

2:05

should uh kind of split this podcast um

2:08

is first and foremost, we have uh BCA's

2:12

uh brain trust here to explain what

2:14

happened with a model. Uh a little

2:17

refresher would be good. By the way,

2:18

let's not assume that all of our

2:19

listeners also listen to the first one.

2:21

So like maybe one of the three of you

2:22

can kind of give uh a sense of what the

2:25

model was focused on uh what went wrong

2:28

in the in the group stage, what went

2:30

right in the knockout stage and then I

2:32

think that will lead into discussion of

2:35

what was

2:37

bad about this World Cup and what was

2:39

good about this World Cup. So maybe we

2:40

can split into three. Everybody can give

2:42

their thoughts on sort of let's talk

2:45

quantitative research, let's talk trying

2:48

to predict sports uh which is really

2:50

difficult especially something like

2:52

soccer and then let's talk about the

2:54

negatives and then let's talk about the

2:56

positives. Um and I think uh you know

2:59

why are we talking about this on

3:00

geopolitical cousins by the way? Well,

3:02

first of all because it's fun. I mean

3:03

the World Cup is an incredible moment

3:05

every four years. Um the amount of

3:08

attention that the world puts on it is

3:11

really unique. Uh we have nothing like

3:14

it really. Even the Olympics doesn't

3:16

capture people's sort of imagination the

3:19

way that this does. Um and also I think

3:21

that there is a geopolitical component

3:23

to some of the things that happen at the

3:24

World Cup. But also I think what's

3:26

interesting to me is that you know Jacob

3:29

and I are not the most quantitative

3:31

people on the planet. Um, but I think

3:33

that there's real validity in trying

3:36

to adapt quantitative methods to what is

3:41

inherently unquantifiable, you know, and

3:44

I think that um it it's

3:48

if for anything else just because when

3:50

you fail and when the model fails,

3:52

that's when the truth kind of reveals

3:54

itself. you know, even though it's

3:56

qualitative, the quantitative method

3:58

ensures that you at least know precisely

4:01

what it was that didn't work out. All

4:04

right, so I'm going to hand over. By the

4:05

way, just as an intro, let's uh uh so

4:09

we've got uh two uh two guests who were

4:13

on I think like a month ago. So, Juan

4:15

Korea and Robert Temper. Juan uh uh does

4:20

global asset location at BCA research.

4:22

my colleague and friend uh he and I have

4:24

been co-owners of an uh JBL franchise in

4:29

uh basketball fantasy league for now

4:31

over 10 years. Uh he was my ringer, he

4:34

was my quant uh now he's a fullfledged

4:37

co-owner. Um and then Robert Temper is

4:40

the head of global fixed income at BC

4:43

Research. And then we also have uh

4:46

Jeremy Pelos who is the head of all

4:49

European research, all European

4:51

investment strategy at BCA. He could not

4:54

make this podcast a month ago and he's

4:56

here joining us as well. Uh he's also

4:58

French so he's the saddest. Um I mean

5:04

Robert I mean yeah like Robert's like

5:05

I'm sad too. I'm like no I mean yeah

5:08

Colombian sad too like you know. Um but

5:11

like you know the French should be the

5:13

saddest. I mean, you know, he had the

5:14

highest hopes and they were crushed. Um,

5:17

all right. So, who wants to kick us off

5:19

in terms of what was kind of in the

5:21

model real quick? Um, and what went

5:23

wrong in the knockout phases and and

5:26

then how did you guys fix it for sorry,

5:29

what went wrong in the group stage and

5:30

then what did you guys notice fix for

5:32

the knockout?

5:34

>> Yeah, I'm I'm happy to to get started.

5:37

So just as a quick reminder, the kind of

5:39

key input into the model is the player

5:43

rating data from the game FIFA. Um, and

5:47

we aggregate that data for every team in

5:50

various ways for attackers, midfield,

5:53

wingers, etc. Um, to basically get a

5:57

sense of how strong each national team

6:00

is. And then we also take into account a

6:03

couple of other variables such as kind

6:05

of experience measured by the number of

6:07

caps that that players have had or

6:10

something like age. Um which can be

6:13

either positive in a sense of experience

6:15

or a negative in a sense of declining

6:18

kind of fitness. Um and so based on that

6:22

we predict every game individually um

6:25

based on the difference between these

6:27

variables between the the teams that

6:29

play each other and then we can for the

6:31

group stage come up with an expected

6:35

number of points that that each team

6:37

gets and based on that we get um who

6:40

who's most likely to qualify and so the

6:43

group stage I think was average the

6:47

performance of of the model Um, we

6:50

obviously got most of the teams right

6:52

that advanced, but I mean when uh 32 out

6:55

of 48 teams advanced, that's kind of

6:57

what you what you would expect. Um,

7:00

obviously there were some big surprises.

7:03

Um, obviously probably the biggest one,

7:05

Cabo Verde. Um, but also not really

7:09

represented in in our models forecast

7:11

were South Africa or Australia, which

7:13

really outperformed. And then the big

7:16

disappointments were really Turkey um

7:18

the Czech Republic and and South Korea

7:21

um which didn't make it to to the next

7:24

round. And then um what we've did after

7:28

the group stage um is we did an update

7:31

because we've done this in the past but

7:34

especially this World Cup it was pretty

7:36

necessary because of the way that

7:38

qualification worked with um eight of

7:41

the best third place teams advancing. it

7:43

was really hard to know in advance what

7:45

kind of the tournament tree would look

7:48

like and so um we reran the model after

7:52

the the group stage based on the known

7:55

known matchups. Um and [snorts] so

7:59

that was I would argue a pretty

8:02

successful rerun and the model actually

8:04

did pretty well. We got the four

8:08

semi-finalists and the two matchups

8:10

correct. Um but that's then so up until

8:13

then it looked like uh France uh was on

8:16

its way to actually win the World Cup.

8:19

Um but that's where things kind of

8:20

derailed and I think we can get into

8:22

that in in a little bit. But the other

8:24

major thing that we changed um between

8:27

the group stage and the knockout stage

8:29

is we have a dummy variable for the

8:33

winner previous winner and we call that

8:36

the winner's curse cuz historically

8:38

um previous winners have done horrendous

8:41

at uh the following World Cups. But this

8:44

time around Argentina obviously did

8:46

pretty well. So they obviously did much

8:48

better than we expected in the group

8:50

stage. And so we decided um largely

8:54

because of one person uh they have done

8:56

very well in the group stage that the

8:59

goat variable trumps the winner's curse.

9:03

Um and I guess one could argue that

9:05

maybe there was more at play in the

9:08

knockout stages than just the goat

9:10

variable, but I guess we can get into

9:12

that as well. Um but yeah, in in at the

9:16

end of the day, I think the knockout

9:17

stage was still fairly successful. We

9:19

got um 26 out of 32 games correct. Um so

9:25

we're fairly happy with that. And I

9:27

actually just got a message today from a

9:29

client saying they finished second in

9:31

their internal uh kind of betting uh

9:34

World Cup game uh betting strategy uh

9:37

based using the model.

9:40

>> Oh, that's good. Okay. So like client

9:42

satisfied. By the way, for all the youth

9:44

who don't know what BCA is, it does not

9:48

predict sports for a living. [laughter]

9:50

Just to be clear, this is this is just

9:53

uh what I call an intellectual flex that

9:56

we do once every four years where we

9:58

showcase what we can do when we get

10:01

together and put our brains together.

10:02

Um, all right. So, just be clear, my my

10:05

presence here is to serve as the Jim

10:07

Kramer of soccer because I have at every

10:10

time we did a podcast, Marco, I

10:11

successfully picked the opposite of what

10:13

was going to happen. The best was when I

10:14

said, "Oh, yeah, France is going to

10:15

steamroll into the final." And of

10:17

course, like the episode came out after

10:19

France got defeated 2-0 by by Spain. So,

10:21

anything that I say on this podcast, I

10:23

have no fancy models. This is me just

10:25

going full gut, baby. I'm just going to

10:26

tell you exactly what I want, and you

10:28

should use me as your infers Kramer for

10:30

sports betting. That is my goal here to

10:31

be that wrong and entertaining. Booyah.

10:34

>> And that's why you're wearing England

10:35

jersey, right?

10:39

>> Exactly. I've adopted I've adopted

10:41

England to the chagrin of many. I was

10:43

actually reflecting on this. I uh this

10:44

is going to sound really lame. Um I I

10:47

started I sing my daughter like laabis

10:49

every night before she goes to sleep and

10:51

I just threw in a little God Save the

10:53

Queen when I got back from um from this

10:55

England match and now she's obsessed.

10:56

She will not let me sing anything other.

10:58

She wanted it the full orchestral

11:00

arrangement on the way to camp this

11:01

morning. Uh, so it's great that we still

11:03

live in a country that she can sing God

11:05

Save the Queen and not get taken to a

11:06

goolog or me taken to a goolog. But I

11:08

digress.

11:09

>> That's funny. That's that's a sign that

11:10

you're a geopolitical cousin because I

11:12

raised all my kids on just anthems.

11:15

That's that's all I did. That's that's

11:17

all I sang. Uh, multiple anthems which

11:20

makes it cool. Um, all right. So, one

11:22

question I have for you guys. Um, you

11:24

replaced, you know, the the winner's

11:26

curse with a goat variable.

11:29

That's interesting. It's almost like

11:32

replacing something top down secular,

11:34

you know, systemic with this individual

11:37

performance. Was it almost like a

11:39

capitulation to the very nature of

11:42

forecasting football? Because football

11:44

is not about one person. And does that

11:46

make what Messi did even that much more

11:49

extraordinary that not only did he get

11:51

drag this Argentina team which was

11:53

massively flawed to the finals but he

11:56

also made us reconsider our

11:58

methodological like foundation as a as

12:02

an entity as a firm.

12:04

>> Well so Marco I think part of that is

12:06

that but I would also highlight that

12:08

this actually the second time that the a

12:10

winner's curse actually fails. Um we had

12:13

the winner curs issue.

12:15

>> Yeah. Third time. Third time. So we had

12:17

the winner's curse um also in our last

12:21

model

12:22

>> and um you know assuming that France

12:24

wasn't going to do well and you know

12:27

they actually went to the final and you

12:29

know I think that's a discussion that we

12:30

can have. You know maybe this winner's

12:32

curs is not as powerful anymore and

12:34

maybe want and I I'll be curious what

12:36

you guys think like one possible culprit

12:38

of that is just sports. um you know like

12:41

one of the reasons why usually teams did

12:45

not repeat or didn't do well uh is

12:47

because you know if you have a key part

12:49

of let's say your core that is let's say

12:52

28 29 years old uh you know four years

12:55

from there they're going to be like in

12:56

their early 30s and no not now but if

12:58

you go back like 20 years ago like

13:00

that's when most players actually start

13:02

to retire uh whereas today you know we

13:05

have like Modric still a great player uh

13:08

playing at 40 for for Croatia, Ronaldo

13:11

at 40, and like Messi, who was

13:12

essentially like one of the best players

13:14

in the tournament at 39, which is

13:15

completely unheard of. So, yeah, I think

13:17

that's maybe one reason why um that

13:21

winner's curse is is probably not as

13:22

relevant as it used to be um you know,

13:25

10 or or 15 years ago.

13:27

>> I mean, you could I think you can you

13:28

can add a couple of other reasons and

13:30

I've been thinking about it why it

13:32

failed. I think the expansion of the of

13:34

the tournament like in terms of number

13:36

of teams I think we can all you know we

13:39

can all agree or disagree but it feels

13:41

to me that the average dual at the group

13:44

stage of each of the groups was

13:46

relatively lower than what we we saw in

13:49

previous workups. So in other words, uh

13:52

when you look at the at the previous

13:54

groups of previous workup winners, I

13:57

felt like the overall like in terms of

13:59

average level and challenge to the team,

14:01

it was slightly higher. So in in in this

14:04

case, because when you look at the

14:06

winners, all of the conditions were met.

14:08

So in other words, it's not only that

14:10

there's additional pressure, you know,

14:12

pressure to repeat something that is

14:14

quite rare. There's the fact that the

14:16

average age of the uh Argentinian team

14:20

was quite elevated which is probably the

14:23

key uh the key ingredient to failing to

14:27

repeat at winning the World Cup. Uh and

14:30

yet when you look at you know what

14:32

Argentina did in the group stage it did

14:34

better than ever before. like usually

14:38

Argentina and I I don't think that Messi

14:41

I mean arguably I think Messi was for

14:44

like was still was playing at a better

14:46

level four years ago because think about

14:48

it he was still playing in Europe at the

14:50

highest level uh he was not yet in the

14:53

MLS this time around you you could say

14:56

all right perhaps he's been you know

14:58

chilling the entire season and he was

15:00

just waiting for the World Cup which

15:02

explains why even though he turned I

15:04

think he turned 39 during the tournament

15:06

it didn't really show because because of

15:09

his style like he spends most of the

15:10

time walking if you look at him on the

15:12

pitch you know it's always been the case

15:14

and you know he saved himself for the

15:17

world cup so I think those are

15:19

additional uh elements to account other

15:22

than just yes Messi is one of the

15:24

greatest players of all time but so is

15:26

Ronaldo and [laughter] and Ronaldo is

15:29

was doing the opposite with Portugal

15:32

than what Messi did with Argentina

15:34

Maybe playing the Saudi le could I jump

15:38

in and zag here for a second because I

15:39

know we want to get into the model, but

15:40

I I'm going to zag hard here and I I

15:43

just know the vitriol that's coming to

15:45

me for saying this. Um Messi's the goat,

15:48

right? Greatest of all time. I watched a

15:50

lot of World Cup. Didn't seem like the

15:52

goat to me. Felt like a lot of, oh,

15:55

we're going to bow down to this guy. But

15:57

I was at the England Argentina match for

15:59

the first 70 minutes. The dude was

16:00

washed. The dude couldn't dribble the

16:02

ball without losing it. He was tackling

16:04

Jude Bellingham, everything else. Now he

16:06

woke up. There's that meme and then he

16:07

had the two nicests in the corner. But

16:09

then in the final with Spain again, like

16:12

not there. And I know I'm not going to

16:13

do the conspiracy theory thing here, but

16:15

Switzerland had them on the ropes. Okay,

16:17

Egypt had them and then a goal got taken

16:19

away. I mean, this narrative changes

16:22

meaningfully in some sense. And there's

16:24

this whole like I get why the the the

16:26

public discourse is about Messi's the

16:27

goat, not the goat, because that's the

16:29

greatest conversation for media out

16:30

there. I mean, Michael Jordan's been

16:32

retired for how many decades? And this

16:33

is still the only conversation that

16:35

basketball commentators can get up

16:37

there, so we want this messy

16:39

conversation. So, I wanted to throw out,

16:40

hey, is he really that good? Like, I

16:42

almost wanted the England guys to be

16:44

like, no, we blew that. Instead, they

16:45

were like, oh my god, it was Jesus on

16:46

the pitch. It was like, no, it wasn't.

16:48

You guys just didn't do anything. Um,

16:49

but like he didn't seem that amazing to

16:51

me. But the flip side of that is I know

16:53

that he has this Steph Curry like

16:54

effect. You could see him bend the

16:56

center of gravity on the pitch because

16:58

everybody's going after him. And in that

17:00

sense, like I would bring up maybe

17:02

Norway and some of these other teams

17:04

that, you know, made it much further

17:06

than y'all's model said because if you

17:07

you don't necessarily have to have a

17:08

goat, but if you have Erling Holland

17:10

there in the center, apparently that can

17:13

also move gravity a little bit and can

17:15

change things. And I also just want to

17:16

say like, you know, looking at your

17:18

guys' first prediction, you got three

17:20

out of the four finalists. You had

17:22

France versus Portugal, I think, in the

17:24

final, right? And then the third place

17:26

round was was Spain, England. So that's

17:27

three out of four finals. I think the

17:29

way that the model actually failed the

17:30

most, the one to account for are things

17:33

like Norway, Egypt, Cape Verde, which

17:35

didn't get a mention in the report at

17:37

all and might turn out to be the

17:38

defining story of the World Cup in the

17:40

long run, the one that has the most

17:41

universal appeal. And none of these

17:43

teams got to the final. Like in the end,

17:45

Marco's material constraints, y'all's

17:47

modeling actually worked. Like you were

17:48

pretty much all the way there. But the

17:50

journey there, like you couldn't really

17:52

like get those those major stories that

17:54

came out. So, okay, there's a few bombs

17:56

I threw in. Take it whatever direction

17:57

you want. Yeah, maybe I'll react. So, I

17:59

mean, I think the thing to to recognize

18:01

is that he might be Jesus, but he's like

18:03

39y old Jesus. Like, I think it's the

18:06

fact that he was playing like this is

18:08

inconceivable. Like, no other 39year-old

18:10

has ever played like this. I think we're

18:12

looking at the top scorers and it was

18:14

like Messi and then you had like a bunch

18:17

of like early 20s guys like Mbappe,

18:20

Holland, uh, Harry Kane. So like nobody,

18:23

you know, Argentina wasn't really a

18:25

favorite like this workup because

18:26

everybody's like, "Hey, like their team

18:28

is old and their best player is 39."

18:30

>> Uh, so there's some of that. Uh, I think

18:33

what you mentioned is actually quite

18:35

accurate, not only because of the

18:36

gravity, but also because the effect

18:38

that it has on the teammates. Um, so

18:41

most people, for example, like Argentina

18:42

is a great example, like most of those

18:44

guys, um, they're now older, but they're

18:47

much younger than Messi. And people

18:50

might not believe Messi's Jesus. I

18:52

guarantee you that his teammates in

18:54

Argentina literally believe that he's

18:56

Jesus and like not in a figurative

18:59

sense. And so that obviously gives them

19:02

a lot of, you know, a lot of belief. Uh,

19:04

and you saw how like Argentina, you

19:06

know, in most of their games they kind

19:07

of like push really hard at the end. So,

19:09

so yeah, I think there's definitely like

19:10

an element to that that's important.

19:13

>> Yeah, I would definitely agree with

19:14

that. And I mean the one thing I would

19:16

say is I don't like if you it's very not

19:19

hard to know the counterfactual but if

19:21

you look at Argentina's path it was

19:25

objectively maybe not but subjectively

19:27

like the easiest path to the semi-final

19:29

for by any team. So, and then there's

19:33

obviously

19:34

the refs and I don't know, we don't want

19:36

to turn conspiracy theorists here, but

19:39

there was a lot of decisions that went

19:41

into the favor of of Lionel Messi and

19:43

there is obviously some benefit to FIFA

19:46

to push this narrative. So, you could

19:48

argue that, you know, without Messi,

19:51

Argentina would have, you know, lost in

19:54

the round of 16 or something. I think

19:56

that's not inconceivable, especially

19:58

when you see how they performed against

20:01

some of the better teams, even against

20:03

England. Like, yeah, they won, but they

20:06

didn't really do much until the last 10

20:08

minutes. And like Jacob said, England

20:10

probably more gave it away than

20:12

Argentina really winning it. So, I guess

20:14

the the biggest question is kind of,

20:16

okay, what about Spain next year? Like,

20:18

do we keep the winner's curse variable?

20:21

And I do think I mean you probably would

20:24

have said made the argument back in 2010

20:27

when they won that oh this a great team

20:30

like they're going to be great for a

20:31

long time and then they failed miserably

20:35

in the group stage next time. But I'm

20:36

also inclined to kind of think it's a

20:39

pretty young team similar to kind of the

20:41

France team that won in 2018 and that

20:43

then went back to the final. Um and it's

20:46

a pretty welloiled mechanism. So

20:49

obviously there can be a wrench thrown

20:51

into that, but if the World Cup stays,

20:54

you know, uh 48 or maybe 64 team

20:58

tournament, there's a good chance they

21:00

make it out of the group and then go on

21:03

a decent run once again.

21:05

>> Well, yeah, let me let me come back to

21:08

you, Jeremy. I just want to unpack a

21:10

couple of things there before we move on

21:12

to what, you know, the model might have

21:15

gone wrong and how is a 39year-old

21:17

crushing it. Just want to say one more

21:19

thing that you guys didn't mention, but

21:20

I know you guys thought about it.

21:21

Substitutions.

21:23

Like when I was a kid, you had two

21:26

substitutions. I remember when they

21:28

added the third was like a big deal. Now

21:30

we've got like I don't even know how

21:31

many. There's like a plethora of

21:33

substitutions. Five substitutions.

21:36

And it really helps I think um with deep

21:39

teams. It helps big nations. It helps uh

21:43

but it also helps older players because

21:46

um you know they they they can walk

21:50

because they've got fresh teammates to

21:52

do to carry the water for them, you

21:54

know, to be the water carrier. So that's

21:55

one thing I wanted to just add to that.

21:57

Um and Jeremy, like I I want to hear

21:59

what you want to say. Maybe you wanted

22:01

to take the conversation somewhere else,

22:03

which is fine. We can come back to this.

22:04

But I found it interesting that Robert,

22:06

your instinct was to introduce Spain to

22:09

this conversation 20 [ __ ] minutes

22:10

after we started. You know, in other

22:13

words, like, yeah, we had them in the

22:15

semi-finals. Yes, the model accounted

22:17

for them even better. Like, we weren't

22:19

ignoring Spain, but I think everybody

22:22

kind of was ignoring Spain, which is

22:24

crazy cuz they were the Euro champion.

22:26

It was kind of like, yeah, they're

22:27

there, but they're not cool. You know, I

22:29

want to talk about Mbappe. You know, I

22:31

want to talk about this incredible

22:32

French team. I want to talk about

22:33

England, which has probably the most

22:35

likable team it's ever had. I want to

22:37

talk about Messi. I want to talk about

22:39

But Spain is just this welloiled

22:41

machines, interchangeable parts, you

22:44

know, like none of them are really I

22:46

mean they're they are superstars. Just

22:48

Yamal like Yamin Yamal, sorry. Lamin

22:51

Yamal, I always butcher his name. He's

22:54

cool cuz he's like 17. But the truth is,

22:58

you know, when you think about Spain,

23:00

nobody really spent a lot of time

23:02

talking about them. Um, and that's

23:05

interesting to me. And I wonder whether

23:07

in this world where you can have so many

23:09

substitutions,

23:11

a country that just produces

23:13

interchangeable talent has, you know,

23:18

um, sort of an edge in everyone else.

23:21

>> Jeremy, go ahead. I interrupted you.

23:23

>> Yeah, no worries. I mean, a couple of

23:24

things and I'll start perhaps by uh

23:28

countering a bit of what you said. Right

23:29

before the World Cup started, Spain had

23:32

the highest odds according to betting

23:34

markets to win the World Cup. It's just

23:36

that it flipped the moment they drew

23:39

against uh Cab and that was really a

23:42

defining moment because you see Spain

23:44

high expectations. They I think they

23:46

ended up it was uh like 000 against Cab

23:50

and everyone was freaking out. I

23:51

remember watching.

23:53

>> Yeah.

23:53

>> And by the way, ju just to double click

23:54

on that, one of the reasons for that is

23:56

that that is the flaw of tikit taka. You

23:58

tick taka yourself to death and you

24:00

can't score. So yeah, that was like, oh,

24:02

here he comes. It's the usual way this

24:04

fails.

24:05

>> Exactly. And so a couple of points I

24:07

wanted to make like one last point about

24:09

Messi and then we can move on. Uh I

24:11

think there was two versions of Messi we

24:13

saw at this workup. There was really

24:15

Messi from the group stage and I was

24:18

quite surprised. I think if you look at

24:19

the number of minutes he played out of

24:22

the three games, I think he he played

24:23

all of them, which was I I think was

24:26

amazing. Uh but then once he moved, you

24:29

know, once they moved to the knockout

24:30

stage, I think that this I don't know if

24:33

it if he was tired, if it was just too

24:35

many minutes played. Uh but eventually,

24:38

I think his his impact on the game

24:41

started to decrease somewhat. also could

24:44

be that the the intensity and the the

24:46

level of opposition was higher. And the

24:48

last thing perhaps on on Spain, uh I

24:52

think another factor other than the fact

24:54

that if we compare Spain 2010, so the

24:57

World Cup winners 2010, World Cup

24:59

winners 2026. I think Robert nailed it.

25:02

The average age of the team is much

25:05

lower today than was in 2010. 2010 the

25:09

Spanish team had brought I mean they had

25:12

reached the the pinnacle of football art

25:15

but it was also a team that was peak

25:17

maturity.

25:18

Spain 2026 I think the average age is 23

25:22

24 years old which is I mean which is

25:25

very young. The second thing I think uh

25:28

will help Spain avoid the winners curse

25:31

four years from now is the fact that uh

25:33

unlike many other teams most of the guys

25:36

on the squad they play together at club

25:38

level. So not only that so you find a

25:41

lot of Barcelona players. I think before

25:43

the World Cup started people were upset

25:45

that there was no Real Madrid players.

25:47

Turns out you know it was uh probably

25:50

beneficial. But not only a lot of those

25:53

guys play together all season long. So

25:55

in other words, you put them you take

25:57

them out of Barcelona, you put them on

25:59

the Spanish squad, same same, you know,

26:01

they can play, you know, they know, they

26:03

just know how to play together. And on

26:05

top of that, most of those guys have

26:07

been playing together since youth teams,

26:10

which is not the case for many other

26:12

national teams.

26:16

>> Can I make one more observation? Um, and

26:18

what I think maybe what I'm thinking

26:21

what we should change for the model next

26:23

time around. I do think like there's

26:26

obviously an I a reason to have a group

26:28

stage and a knockout stage model because

26:31

it's somewhat different games and

26:33

different things matter. But what I I'm

26:36

thinking about now that, you know, we

26:38

got the semi-finals right, but then it's

26:40

kind of stopped working. And so what I'm

26:43

thinking is we might need to have again

26:45

a separate version with some different

26:47

variables for the semifinal and final

26:51

because I do think the other thing where

26:53

Spain really excels is not in these kind

26:57

of group stage games against complete

26:59

underdogs that just park the bus, but

27:02

they excel when they can like play

27:04

against in in Argentina, in France, in

27:07

England where the other team is willing

27:09

to actually play as well. Um, and so I

27:12

do think that's something that we should

27:15

definitely test next time around is what

27:18

are the factors that decide those like

27:20

very last games. Like if you look at

27:22

France, like their attack was amazing.

27:25

That was perfect for all these kind of

27:27

weaker teams. But when then when they

27:29

met Spain, they realized their midfield

27:32

isn't strong enough to keep up with with

27:33

with Spain. So the attackers didn't have

27:36

the ball. So it didn't do anything for

27:38

you that you had Mbappe, etc. up front

27:41

because they never really had a touch on

27:43

the ball. Um, and so I do think that's

27:45

the one thing that I'm would definitely

27:48

look into changing for next time is what

27:50

are the variables that matter more. And

27:51

for example, one could be actually

27:53

midfield and control of the midfield,

27:55

which at the moment we don't have the

27:58

midfield rating in our our model in

28:00

either the group or the knockout stage.

28:02

>> No, it's true. Or maybe you want to you

28:04

might want to adjust um the quality of

28:07

the opponent, which is funny, you know,

28:08

cuz you would think the worse the

28:10

quality, the more likely you're to win.

28:12

But as you point out, Spain plays like a

28:15

boa constrictor. It it strangles teams

28:19

to death with that, you know, midfield

28:22

is packed. They uh they defend very

28:25

high. And uh the problem is you can't

28:29

kill that which is already dead.

28:32

Like you can't strangle somebody who

28:35

doesn't breathe. And so when you come up

28:39

and you've got 10 dudes in the box

28:41

defending against a ball constrictor,

28:43

what's the point? It doesn't matter. You

28:44

can have the best midfielders in the

28:46

world, like the opponent is not meeting

28:48

you in the midfield at all. Um and

28:50

that's when you need those big strikers,

28:52

you know, you got to like cross into the

28:55

box and and like Spain just didn't have

28:56

that. Um, and Torres was also just kind

28:59

of terrible, you know, [laughter] until

29:01

he scored the main goal. So maybe that

29:03

was part of it. Um, all right. So

29:05

>> I also just just before we leave it, I

29:07

just want to point out that like every

29:08

one of the teams that might have

29:09

surprised the upside against your model.

29:10

Like you don't have to call it the goat

29:11

factor. Maybe call it the center of

29:13

gravity factor, but almost every single

29:15

one of them was one of these teams that

29:16

had one of these centers of gravity.

29:18

Like Norway is one of them. Egypt a

29:20

little bit less so, but still like you

29:22

still had like one or two really really

29:23

good players and they built everything

29:25

around it. The reason I did the Zag on

29:26

Messi also is in part like sure he's the

29:29

GOAT, but this time around he was like

29:30

Allen Iverson um playing against the

29:32

Lakers in the finals. Like they had to

29:34

build a team completely around him in

29:36

order to get into the position that he

29:38

was in. And so Argentina like maybe shot

29:40

itself in the foot because they

29:42

literally couldn't do anything else

29:43

besides rough it up and like let Messi

29:45

put in some shots. Anyway, the point I'm

29:46

just making is like you have these like

29:49

these teams like Spain, Switzerland felt

29:51

like this too where it's a team and

29:52

they're going to rise and fall together.

29:54

And then you have, you know, France has

29:56

Mbappe and England has these two guys

29:58

and and Argentina has these two guys.

29:59

And it's interesting to see the team

30:01

square off against the centers of

30:03

gravity. And one of the reasons why

30:05

maybe Spain could avoid the curse that

30:07

you're talking about is with Yamal

30:09

coming up, they can do that next time.

30:12

Like yes, they can do the boa

30:13

constrictor thing, but they're going to

30:14

have a dude if if he stays healthy

30:16

because righty wasn't healthy in this

30:17

one. If if he stays healthy in four

30:19

years, maybe they can do both. Maybe

30:21

they can switch back and forth between

30:22

these things. Maybe they can figure out

30:24

how to do that. But I I noticed that

30:25

tension very much. There are these team

30:27

these these team oriented ones where

30:29

it's all about the style and the

30:30

closeness and then it's just the hey,

30:32

we've got a Viking. We're going to put

30:34

him right here in the middle and

30:35

everything is about get the ball to the

30:37

Viking. We have to get the ball to the

30:39

Viking and if we do that, we have a

30:40

puncher's chance. I also just want to

30:42

point out before we leave it um that

30:43

Cape Verde goalie is 40 years old. So if

30:46

Messi is incredible uh Vzena at 40, the

30:48

blue shark like he he should also get a

30:50

shout out for performing at a high level

30:52

pass.

30:55

>> All right. Uh okay. So let's uh let's go

30:58

down the line. Uh I don't know who wants

31:00

to start, but um what were the two

31:03

things you did not like about this uh

31:06

World Cup?

31:08

>> I mean I can start Jeremy. Yeah, go

31:10

ahead. No, no, please. No, please go

31:11

ahead.

31:12

>> Uh, I mean I I will start with probably

31:14

I mean and it's inspiring because one of

31:16

your other segments is what's the most

31:18

geological thing and for me the thing I

31:21

I I like the least was uh the Trump call

31:26

[laughter]

31:26

that uh allowed or that pressured FIFA

31:29

into uh withdrawing the red card for uh

31:32

Balul the the US uh the the US team

31:36

forward. So that was by far uh the thing

31:39

the thing I I like the least. Uh I'm

31:42

still quite upset about it. Not not so

31:43

much I don't care that it's for you know

31:46

like I like the player like I I follow

31:48

him closely. He plays he plays in in

31:50

France with Monaco amazing player but I

31:53

thought this was this was just too much.

31:55

It was just it was just we know there is

31:58

always a little bit of you know and I'll

32:00

I'll try to be uh to be nice. There's a

32:03

lot always a little bit of corruption

32:05

and and things that you know you can't

32:06

explain, but this one it was just so out

32:09

in the open and I I just felt oh my god

32:11

please Trump leave football alone alone.

32:14

Just focus on anything else. Leave

32:17

football alone. So that was the f the

32:19

first thing. The second thing uh the

32:21

water breaks like it's just I I don't

32:24

get it. And I've seen a lot of

32:26

commentaries about people in stadiums

32:28

where, you know, it was chill. Like

32:30

there it's not like you actually needed

32:32

to take breaks like they did, you know,

32:35

like during the World Cup in Q or when

32:37

you play in some countries where it's

32:39

actually really hot. Uh I I didn't like

32:42

it as a as a you know, watching you know

32:45

those games on TV. I didn't like those

32:47

extra breaks. I think it also added an

32:50

element of strategy to it, you know,

32:52

which might be good because essentially

32:53

you start playing two halftimes, you

32:56

play four quarter times. So it allows uh

32:59

the managers to, you know, operate

33:02

different, you know, operate changes

33:04

more rapidly than they usually can. So I

33:06

like this the strategic element. I

33:09

didn't like how it really cut the game.

33:11

Uh and I I feel like even for the

33:14

players, I felt bad. like I I thought it

33:16

was it was really unnecessary and once

33:19

again motivated by I think revenues

33:22

rather than uh than than football.

33:25

>> Can I counter on these two?

33:28

>> Can I can I defend

33:31

>> the TDSDS coming? Here it comes. Here we

33:34

go. What? 32 minutes. Okay.

33:36

>> Actually, so I'm I'm not going to defend

33:38

that. Like whatever, you know. I'm just

33:39

going to uh somebody said this is what

33:43

aboutism, you know. Oh well, yeah, it is

33:46

what aboutism. Okay, so for hysterical

33:48

historical and hysterical perspective in

33:52

2002 World Cup, South Korea got to the

33:55

semi-finals basically because FIFA just

33:58

bribed bribed the refs. Let's let's be

34:00

[ __ ] honest. They beat Spain, a great

34:02

Spain team, and they beat Italy, a great

34:05

Italy team that four years later wins

34:07

the World Cup.

34:09

and they do so because like the refs I

34:12

mean it was just astounding. So that's

34:15

that's an example of FIFA favoring the

34:18

host. And the whole point in 2002 was

34:22

like, hey, Asia has a lot of people.

34:25

We need to make sure that they really

34:28

double click on soccer, on football.

34:31

Like we need to make sure that like the

34:33

Japanese, the Koreans, and just Asians

34:35

in general like love football. So let's

34:38

make sure that at least one of these two

34:40

hosts, Japan and South Korea, get to the

34:42

semi. So that was like I think much

34:44

worse than giving a mediocre team their

34:47

mediocre team uh uh uh a player back.

34:50

Sorry Americans, but that those are

34:52

facts, you know. So that's the first.

34:55

The second is the fact that we've got

34:58

two World Cups in Russia and Qatar that

35:01

were clearly hosted due to bribes. You

35:05

know, like again, like America wouldn't

35:07

have beaten Belgium if you had given

35:10

them [ __ ] Messi, man. You know what I

35:13

mean? Like, let's like pump the brakes

35:15

on the relevance of this. So, I would

35:17

just say like I think that the previous

35:19

two examples, three examples are so much

35:22

worse. The whole fact that Russia got to

35:24

host after it invaded Ukraine the first

35:27

time and Qatar, which is like unlivable

35:30

in the summer. Granted, we moved the

35:31

World Cup and stuff and had air

35:33

conditioning in in stadiums, but like

35:36

those two examples are much worse, I

35:38

think, than this. I think maybe we lose

35:40

some perspective. Now, water breaks,

35:42

here's what I will say about water

35:43

breaks. Um, they have this new rule now

35:47

where like if you get injured on the on

35:49

the field on the pitch and you start

35:51

rolling on the grass like you've been

35:53

shot by a sniper and like the medical

35:56

team has to come on the field, you got

35:58

to sit out a minute. So, your team is

36:00

now playing 11 versus 10. I wonder if

36:03

that rule can stay without the water

36:05

bricks.

36:08

I think you can because these guys get

36:10

play get paid millions of dollars like

36:14

and you have five substitutes. So, man

36:16

up and just play. But the rolling on the

36:19

ground and pretending like you've been

36:21

sniped was also useful in that that was

36:24

a water break. you know, like the

36:26

trainer came on the pitch, carried the

36:28

water, everybody kind of gathered

36:29

around, opponents and the team of the

36:32

injured player. Everybody shared water,

36:34

right? While their teammate was like

36:36

rolling and then like finally

36:38

resurrected like Jesus. Um I don't know.

36:41

Like that's where I would say like the

36:42

water breaks to me almost um make it so

36:45

that we can go on with the rest of the

36:47

game without allowing anybody to have a

36:50

little break while their teammate is

36:52

like doing like a solo in an opera of

36:55

how much they're hurt. I don't know.

36:58

That's just maybe a weak counter.

37:00

>> Can I throw in just something, you know,

37:02

just quickly before we we we hear Juan

37:04

and and uh and Robert on what they

37:06

didn't like. I I have a hench that if

37:10

not for that, you know, pressure to get

37:13

the red card removed for Baligon, I feel

37:16

like it gave so much extra extra

37:18

motivation to Belgium and and quite

37:21

frankly to most teams in the world. Like

37:24

I don't think it was just Belgium

37:25

against US. I feel it was just the world

37:28

of football versus the US team. uh

37:31

before and you know I was I had like a I

37:34

had like bets on you know on the side

37:36

for the World Cup before this happened.

37:39

I had the you know I was quite confident

37:41

that the US would win against Belgium

37:43

because up until that point honestly

37:45

Belgium was quite disappointing if you

37:47

think about their the group stage pretty

37:50

fairly disappointing.

37:51

>> They've been disappointing for 20 years.

37:53

Yeah they've been disappointing for 20

37:54

years. No, no. Like if you if you think

37:56

of 2018, 2018, I mean, they lost to I

37:59

mean, they lost to France in the

38:00

semi-finals again, you know, against the

38:03

the team that would eventually win the

38:04

World Cup. So, it's just that this time

38:06

around, I think they they failed at

38:09

regenerating uh the team you have, you

38:12

know, their key players are honestly old

38:15

and now they play, you know, they still

38:17

play in Europe, but they play in Italy.

38:19

So, [laughter] you know, take it for

38:21

what it is. Uh but I thought that the US

38:23

team had the chances, you know, had a

38:26

really a really high chance at winning

38:28

this game against Belgium and and in the

38:30

end even with Balugum being back on the

38:33

field, the US team sort of I mean they

38:35

made a fool of themselves like you know

38:37

like if you remember the the goalie I

38:39

mean it was it was incredible and I

38:42

think it was because of all the the

38:44

media pressure that was onto that team

38:47

because of the decision to uh to bring

38:50

Balaboom uh back on onto the pit. pitch.

38:54

>> Yeah, they even said that. Uh, and also

38:56

like we commented on this. Jacob and I

38:58

were commenting. I mean like Belgium

38:59

just took out the belt and like it was

39:02

it was more emotion I've seen out of

39:04

Belgium like ever. So in the history of

39:08

Belgium, you know, it was like, no,

39:09

we're going to we're going to we're

39:11

going to win and we're going to I mean

39:13

that was clear from the first 10

39:14

minutes. It was really like amazing. Um,

39:17

all right. Go on or anyone else? Anyone

39:20

else? Jacob, who wants to go next? Two

39:22

things you did not like. So, Jeremy said

39:24

Trump getting involved with the red card

39:26

and water breaks. I mean, by the time

39:27

the fourth person comes, we're going to

39:29

really be searching for things we did

39:31

not like, which is fine. Uh, I like that

39:33

about this. Who else?

39:34

>> Sure. So, I'm going to copy German on

39:36

one thing, which was the water breaks. I

39:38

also, you know, didn't like them. I

39:39

actually So, I went to a game uh in

39:41

Dallas and like that stadium is like

39:43

covered and, you know, like why are you

39:46

having water breaks in when it's like

39:47

20°? Uh the other thing and I'm going to

39:49

sag a little bit here because I think

39:52

this is a lot of people didn't like the

39:54

VAR and what I didn't like was the all

39:58

the sort of like sanctimony around the

40:01

VAR. So I I did not like that people did

40:02

not like the VAR. I actually like Var.

40:04

Let me explain why.

40:06

>> Like I think people forget like the

40:08

amount of calls that used to be on call

40:11

back when there was no VAR. It was

40:13

obscene. I mean like in ' 86 like

40:16

Maradona literally score a goal with his

40:18

hand you know not that long ago like I

40:21

don't know this wasn't in the World Cup

40:22

per se but it was in the qualifiers like

40:24

France qualified also with enri scoring

40:27

with his hand and kick somebody out of

40:29

the tournament uh you know like I

40:32

understand why you know you see the you

40:35

see the sort of things in in replay and

40:37

then you might disagree with the call

40:39

like at least they're marginal like

40:41

before things that were obvious used to

40:42

get missed Uh, and so I think that I

40:45

understand why VAR might not be good on

40:48

a flow perspective. Uh, it creates like

40:50

this emotional roller coaster. It stops

40:51

the game a lot. Like I get that. But to

40:54

me there is no question like none that

40:56

the games are more fair, more just. Um,

41:00

and so that's that's what I would would

41:01

say about VAR.

41:04

I mean I I als I have to say what well

41:07

I'm obviously a bit biased but I think

41:09

the problem for me with VAR is still

41:11

that it's a bit unclear of what exactly

41:15

the rules are and not necessarily the

41:17

rules of the game itself but also when

41:19

is it used and when isn't it used and

41:22

that's the part especially the way

41:24

Germany got kicked out that I'm uh a bit

41:28

frustrated with is like the way Germany

41:31

like the goal that was disallowed that

41:33

was a goal every time for Arsenal in the

41:35

Premier League. If that wasn't allowed,

41:37

then Arsenal would have probably

41:38

finished 10th in the in the Premier

41:40

League. Like, it's just very unclear of

41:43

like when can you use it, when can't you

41:45

use it? And I think that's the thing

41:47

that that needs to be approved. The

41:49

other thing I have to say I didn't like

41:51

is and it might have a little bit to do

41:53

for with the time zone, but I thought it

41:55

was too many games. I was in the group

41:57

stage. I was waiting for the tournament

42:00

to really kick off. But then at the same

42:04

time, by the time we got to the

42:06

quarterfinal, I was like feeling a bit

42:09

exhausted of like, you know, this is the

42:12

part where you want to get really really

42:14

excited, but you've also just already

42:16

had four weeks of like 100 games. And I

42:19

thought it was a bit too much. I I got a

42:24

bit fatigued. And funny enough, like I

42:27

was watching the England uh France game

42:30

uh for the round of uh sorry for the

42:32

third place here in the UK. Nobody

42:35

cared. Literally nobody cared. We were

42:38

in the pub. It was like okay it was 10

42:41

p.m. but it was on a Saturday.

42:42

>> We were the case for every you know

42:46

third place match. I mean I would you

42:48

remember like is there a memorable third

42:51

third uh third place match that you know

42:53

from the past World Cups?

42:56

>> Oh, they're all

42:58

memorable.

42:59

>> I was I remember Germany third place in

43:02

2006 when they hosted the World Cup

43:04

against Portugal. Like that was I

43:06

remember that and that was still a big

43:07

thing like and you know I mean you don't

43:10

have to really care but I was literally

43:12

we were like the only people in the pub

43:14

watching this game. like people left

43:15

throughout the game. By the end of the

43:16

game, the pub was empty. And that was

43:18

like I've heard that from multiple

43:19

people. Like I think it was just like

43:21

people were like enough of this World

43:23

Cup. Like we've we've seen enough of

43:24

soccer.

43:25

>> Although Robert I I think that might

43:26

have been because of the way England

43:28

lost in the first like there was such it

43:31

caused such depression in the country

43:33

that like I think that probably had

43:35

something to do with it.

43:36

>> I think that I did not like the

43:39

substitutions.

43:42

Okay. So I I get it. It allows, you

43:45

know, Messi to play at 53,

43:48

[laughter]

43:49

you know, uh, great. We can have guys

43:53

come in for the last like 15 minutes

43:56

and it's it's useful to make like

43:58

tactics become more interesting. The

44:00

problem is that I think um it makes it

44:03

really difficult

44:06

um to surprise and for smaller teams to

44:09

kind of excel. I actually think that's

44:12

one of the problems. Uh this was I think

44:16

the first World Cup where the top four

44:19

seated got to the semi-finals. Correct

44:21

me if I'm wrong about that uping. So um

44:25

and you know like felt like at the

44:27

beginning it felt oh you know Cape Verie

44:30

Kuraka like sweet cool interesting but

44:32

not not really like it was just like

44:35

expanded and so some small countries

44:37

that m that did a really extraordinary

44:39

job of recruiting expats and God bless

44:42

him for that but like you know what did

44:45

they do nothing they did nothing they

44:48

out

44:49

>> no they fizzled out like it was cool

44:50

story

44:51

>> come drive by a cape fair cur Yeah.

44:53

Okay. Go for it.

44:54

>> No, I mean like you know like we we have

44:56

had teams like Turkey, South Korea.

44:59

Okay. That was FIFA being corrupt, but

45:01

like we had South Korea, Turkey, we've

45:03

had Portugal, we've had Belgium, we've

45:06

had Croatia in the semi-finals. Uh

45:09

Croatia is a country of 4 million

45:10

people. Um that's cool. And I think it's

45:13

going to be really difficult to do that

45:15

if you let teams come in with two

45:17

squads. You know who who who has two

45:19

squads? Like nobody. So that was I think

45:22

one of the things that I thought um was

45:25

unfortunate. The other one

45:27

>> if I go ahead

45:28

>> you know I agree with you too many

45:30

substit substitutions although when you

45:33

look at uh when you take the knockout

45:35

stage I think that's where it makes

45:36

sense. So group stage I'm 100% with you

45:39

let's reduce it bring it back to three

45:41

let's say but once you reach the

45:43

knockout stage and we've seen it in this

45:44

workup many games went into extra time.

45:48

So,

45:48

>> but that's awesome, Jeremy, though. But

45:50

I No, listen. Like, but that is

45:54

football. That's like I mean, look,

45:56

maybe I'm just older than everyone here,

45:57

and that's fine. like I'm just an old

45:59

guy on a porch like knocking back and

46:00

forth. But like look I like

46:04

yeah if you have the whole team relying

46:06

on Messi and that's your whole strategy

46:10

you should lose

46:12

to Egypt because you can't do the

46:14

substitutions and you can't keep fresh

46:16

legs around him. Like that's what used

46:18

to happen. Teams got punished because

46:20

they, you know, were too old. They got

46:23

punished because they couldn't go into

46:25

the overtime with and and then what also

46:28

happened is cool [ __ ] happened, you

46:30

know, like breakaway goals happened. Uh

46:32

mistakes happened. Um awesome like fouls

46:36

happened, you know, because the

46:37

36year-old over the hill past expiration

46:40

date center back gets paired up with a

46:43

21-year-old Michael Owen and you're

46:46

like, "Oh, [ __ ] How do I catch him? I

46:48

can't. Red card. Let's go." like that

46:51

[ __ ] kind of happened, you know, and we

46:52

don't have that because everyone was

46:54

fresh, everyone was awesome, everyone

46:55

was shredded. Um, it allows us to

46:58

protect these unique, wonderful players

47:00

that Jacob loves, but it also like I

47:03

think has really changed football more

47:06

than anything else

47:09

because we want mistakes. You know,

47:11

Jeremy's point is like, well, yeah, but

47:13

like then the game gets better. And I'm

47:14

like, I don't want the game to get

47:15

better. I want it to become chaos. you

47:17

know, I wanted to become complete and

47:19

utter disaster. Um, anyways, I don't

47:22

know. So, but that's also just be me

47:24

being old. The other thing that I um I

47:27

think America has the greatest stadiums

47:29

on the planet. Like there's not even

47:31

like it's not even close. Uh I attended

47:34

the Canada South Africa game in LA and I

47:36

mean SoFi is just a [ __ ] temple, you

47:39

know? Um, and the only issue is that,

47:44

and I don't know how you fix this

47:45

because it's the World Cup and it's got

47:47

to be hosted somewhere, but these

47:49

stadiums are so massive that it was

47:51

funny because in that stadium of 70,000

47:54

people, like 62,000 were Mexican fans

47:59

and they were so bored with this MLS

48:01

quality game that was quite frankly like

48:03

like I mean it was a terrible game, you

48:05

know, Canada versus South Africa. You

48:07

don't know who's worse. Um, but like

48:10

they were so bored. 62,000 people. Now

48:14

you guys are watching on TV, so I'm sure

48:16

they were showing this section of

48:17

Canadian fans who were like really into

48:19

it. I can tell you I was there. Nobody

48:21

heard him. Nobody heard them. There

48:23

[laughter] was like what you heard was

48:26

62,000 Mexicans being like, "Oh man,

48:28

this sucks. I can't I paid 3K to go to

48:32

an MLS game and then trying to do uh the

48:35

Mexican wave." You know, that was the

48:37

biggest the most the biggest roar in the

48:40

crowd came not when Canada scored a

48:42

goal. It was when finally we got the

48:44

Mexican wave going and it was successful

48:46

and like the stadium blew up. Uh so I

48:48

don't know. I mean, I don't want to say

48:50

I don't like that because I think having

48:51

70,000 fans is awesome even for random

48:55

games, but the experience in the stadium

48:59

in that game was was pretty bad.

49:04

Um, I guess this I'm just I'm just good

49:06

at finding things that are wrong with

49:08

things. It's the Larry David in me.

49:09

Y'all didn't even touch my list. So,

49:11

I've got a few here. Um, the first the

49:13

first is, by the way, I'm amused that

49:14

you guys are so anti-water breaks. It's

49:16

like we're all analysts sitting at our

49:18

desks typing things and we're like,

49:19

these worldass athletes, they shouldn't

49:21

be allowed to take a water break in

49:22

Miami where it's like 95% humidity and

49:25

95 degrees. It's like, it's okay for

49:27

them to have a two and a half minute

49:28

water break. I was okay with that. Um,

49:30

just just poking a little fun there. By

49:31

the way, cousin, you're right that most

49:33

US stadiums are amazing. The Meadowlands

49:36

is not a temple. Like the final should

49:38

not have been in New York. It should

49:39

have been at the Aztec or like some

49:41

place that was better. Like that was a

49:43

fool. Like I'm I'm sure somebody got a

49:44

bribe there that allowed that to happen.

49:46

That was annoying. Okay, but my list of

49:47

things

49:48

>> bribes in New Jersey like that. That's

49:50

never happened.

49:51

>> Never happened before. Ever. Um I said I

49:54

went to the Argentina England game. One

49:55

of the things I was most looking forward

49:57

to was the national anthems. I thought

49:58

it was going to be so cool. This moment

50:01

of respect before the match starts.

50:02

England anthem was supposed to be first.

50:04

The Argentina fans that were there, so

50:06

I'm not going to say this is all of

50:07

Argentina, but the Argentina fans that

50:09

were at this match, and by the way, that

50:10

stadium was roughly 85% Argentina. There

50:13

were not a lot of Americans there. You

50:14

had the the English guys dressed up as

50:16

the knights in the funny costumes and

50:18

then it was like 85% Argentina. That was

50:20

the room. Um, but they booed and

50:22

whistled through the English national

50:24

anthem and then of course the English

50:25

got pissed off and so the Argentine

50:27

couldn't hear the an couldn't hear

50:29

either team's anthem and it it made it

50:32

so the feeling in the stadium was kind

50:34

of mean. Um, like I didn't really feel

50:36

any of the tension until that moment and

50:38

I just hated that moment for both sides

50:40

for the audience. It just felt like it

50:42

felt antithetical to everything the

50:43

World Cup was supposed to stand for and

50:44

Argentina seemed to be at the center of

50:46

of those sorts of things throughout this

50:47

tournament. So I did not like that at

50:49

all. Um, I can't believe none of y'all

50:51

said this. I hated halftime of the World

50:54

Cup final. What was this, the Super

50:56

Bowl? Why is Justin Bieber and all these

50:58

guys coming out to do songs in the

51:00

middle of the half? And I the watch

51:01

party I was with was like, "This is so

51:03

cool." It's not cool. If I wanted to

51:04

watch football, I'd go watch football.

51:06

I'm here to watch the World Cup, not

51:08

this. That really that really got me.

51:09

>> But Jacob, Jacob, like like you know,

51:12

you you you got to be thankful because

51:14

thanks to that crappy show, halftime

51:16

show, it provided us with like an

51:18

amazing meme where you see Ronaldo R9

51:21

driving that little car and and you can

51:24

tell he doesn't know what he's doing

51:26

here.

51:28

>> That was the highlight of that of that

51:30

halftime show. Like I'm so I'm still

51:32

thankful for that. I don't like it, you

51:34

know, but that was so hilarious. So, I

51:37

think you have to look at it with a bit

51:38

of a, you know, like a bit of sarcasm

51:41

and and and if you do an irony and then

51:43

you enjoy it.

51:44

>> That's nice. I I like the glass half

51:46

full, but I thought it was stupid. I I

51:48

was like, "Come on, guys." Almost as

51:49

stupid as Tom Cruz's little monologue. I

51:51

don't know what the heck Tom Cruz was

51:53

doing at the beginning there, just like

51:54

talking into the ether. Um, and then

51:56

I'll add a third, and I can't believe

51:57

none of you brought this up, but this is

51:58

also very geopolitical. Um, and this is

52:00

before the Belgium stuff and the way

52:02

Trump inserted himself and the way he

52:03

was dancing in front of the Spanish

52:04

team. Like, that's classic Trump. he

52:06

just wants the attention and the

52:07

attention will be there. the way the US

52:09

the US government treated the Iranian

52:11

team was shameful and the karma that

52:14

came from that and and for for those who

52:17

don't know at first they were maybe not

52:18

going to let them have their visa to

52:20

come play in the United States when then

52:21

they when they finally allowed them to

52:23

they wouldn't let them spend the night

52:24

in Los Angeles they had to play the

52:26

match and then get straight on a plane

52:27

and get sent straight back to Mexico to

52:29

sleep which is okay like it's not the

52:31

worst thing to happen in the world but

52:32

just no generosity of spirit no

52:35

willingness to say these players are

52:37

not, you know, theocratic thugs who are

52:41

bombing people or terrorists, right?

52:42

They're soccer players. The whole point

52:44

of this is to bring people together. If

52:46

you want to bring down the Islamic

52:47

Republic, you want these soccer players

52:49

to hang out in LA and have a good time

52:51

and meet with the Iranians that are in

52:53

Los Angeles. I just thought it was such

52:55

a such a petty, meaningless, and

52:58

vindictive show of force from the US

53:01

government, and it pissed me off way

53:02

more than the FIFA stuff. Like, FIFA and

53:04

the Trump administration were made for

53:06

each other. like okay like I'm not so

53:07

and I did some background on FIFA like

53:09

of course like this is a corrupt

53:10

organization like stop stop with the you

53:13

know the the puress of the ethics of

53:15

football like whatever but like the way

53:17

that the US treated Iran um just

53:20

shameful like I think history will

53:22

remember that as a stain on the on the

53:24

record of the United States as a host

53:25

>> and it actually extends beyond just the

53:27

treatment to Iran like a a lot of I mean

53:30

many other national teams experienced uh

53:33

issues with uh visas and entering the

53:35

us. Um I mean top of my mind I think

53:38

Sagal they were missing

53:40

>> half of the members of their staff. So

53:43

players got through no problem. I think

53:46

they're missing half of the member of

53:47

the staff including uh the cook uh and

53:51

and it was a big I mean it was a big uh

53:53

issue for the for for the Sagal team. uh

53:56

they complained about it obviously had

53:58

an impact on the quality of their uh you

54:01

know group stage uh games and I think

54:03

and I can't remember right now but other

54:06

teams had similar issues with late visas

54:08

I mean visas being delivered at the last

54:11

minute which obviously also had a

54:13

negative impact on uh on the games.

54:17

>> Okay, was that it Jacob? Was that your

54:19

letter David list? We can move on.

54:21

[laughter] That was

54:24

>> okay. So, um, things that, uh, we liked

54:27

about the World Cup, you know. Um, so

54:30

I'm going to start us off because this

54:32

is going to be controversial.

54:35

I like the fact that we expanded the

54:37

teams,

54:39

okay? And I liked it because

54:44

because a lot of the teams that were

54:47

laughed at pre-World Cup ended up being

54:49

decent. like I mean not like again not

54:51

great and a lot of things went against

54:54

him in the later stages including the

54:56

substitutions and the depth of you know

54:58

established teams but like why not have

55:00

kept cap and kura and by the way these

55:03

are countries that have gotten really

55:05

good like their federations did a really

55:07

good job they went out they found the

55:09

expats that were maybe born elsewhere

55:12

off the scent and uh you know like when

55:14

I looked at the rosters

55:16

of most of the teams like it was kind

55:19

shocking how they really had players

55:23

playing in really good leagues. Um,

55:25

other than like kind of the usual

55:26

suspects, you know, like Saudi team

55:29

plays in the Saudi league. All the fine

55:31

like Saudi league is of course improving

55:32

quality. There's a few examples like

55:34

that. But for the most part, you know,

55:37

you had really interesting, cool players

55:39

that otherwise would not have made the

55:41

World Cup, but they made it because it

55:43

expanded. Now, so I have a suggestion

55:46

for next one. All right. So, what's the

55:49

what's the plan right now to expand to

55:51

60 something or

55:53

>> what's the plan?

55:54

>> 64. Okay. So, I'm actually here's my

55:57

proposal to FIFA. Expand to 88.

56:01

Okay. Hear me out. Hear me out. 24

56:06

teams, 24 like back in the old days,

56:09

qualify for the World Cup and they get

56:12

placed into groups.

56:15

And for the last eight slots to make 32

56:18

teams, you have a [ __ ] March Madness

56:20

style 64 round robin tournament where

56:24

like Kuraka has to play like Slovenia,

56:26

you know, and we get to the elite eight

56:29

of that tournament and those eight then

56:32

get seated into the groups. And so we

56:35

kind of, you know, I got inspired by

56:37

this um plan to have in 2030 several

56:41

games in South America to honor the 100

56:44

years of the Uruguay World Cup hosted,

56:47

you know, in 1930. And I was like, why

56:49

don't we just do that again? You want

56:51

more countries to play in the World Cup?

56:53

Do a round robin. 64 teams, boom, pick a

56:56

country for that tournament and then

56:58

those eight teams just go and play in

57:01

the other group. That would be my

57:02

solution. And then you can say 88

57:04

countries played in the World Cup. There

57:05

you go.

57:07

>> I like it.

57:10

>> All right. Um, what else did you guys

57:13

like?

57:14

What was cool? What was interesting?

57:16

What made you actually excited about

57:17

this World Cup?

57:19

>> So, I mean, you know, not at the

57:22

beginning of the tournament, but I think

57:23

and you mentioned it uh Marco, the

57:26

stadiums. I mean, for anyone anyone

57:29

who's been to stadiums in in in Europe,

57:33

you you watch the that World Cup and

57:35

you're just amazed. And it wasn't just

57:36

the stadiums in in in the US, by the

57:38

way. Even I mean, obviously, you look at

57:40

the Aka, you see some of the the

57:42

stadiums in in Mexico and you're just,

57:44

you know, blown away. It was the, you

57:46

know, the infrastructure was just

57:48

amazing. So now obviously there's the

57:50

the issue of like what was the average

57:52

you know uh ticket price compared to

57:54

previous workups you know I'm not

57:56

getting into that but just the overall

57:59

um uh level of instructure it was really

58:03

impressive and you know I grew up in

58:05

France we we have crappy stadiums like

58:09

literally even you know even the best

58:12

French team at the moment PSG the

58:14

stadiums is you know is is it's an

58:16

historical building like we love but

58:19

it's it's like 40,000 seats and it's

58:21

it's been around for like 60 plus years.

58:24

So, that was one thing I really like.

58:26

The second thing uh I really like and it

58:29

was new a new format, but I really like

58:31

the fact that all the players from each

58:34

team, even the the people on the bench

58:36

would actually stand up and and and be,

58:38

you know, uh able to sing the end. I

58:41

really like that. I don't know it

58:44

before. It's like like it's up because

58:46

people are on the bench that they

58:47

shouldn't be able to, you know, sing the

58:49

anthem, which is so I I also I mean it's

58:52

a minor thing, but uh I thought it was a

58:54

it was a nice addition to the to the

58:57

FIFA.

58:59

>> Um so I would agree with Jeremy. So uh

59:01

the game I went to was in Jerry World

59:03

and I had never been to a stadium like

59:05

that. Uh just incredible stadium,

59:08

gigantic screen. I think it's 80,000

59:10

people capacity. Uh it was full you know

59:13

I went to Japan Netherlands game it was

59:14

full of fans all singing uh yeah truly

59:17

truly incredible infrastructure the US

59:19

has

59:23

>> I think the spectacle also is what I

59:25

liked and I mean you know my first World

59:28

Cup that I watched religiously as a kid

59:30

as an 8-year-old was 1990 in Italy and

59:34

it was the the ceremony like the anthems

59:37

the flags that kind of got me into

59:38

geopolitics. I mean, there was other

59:40

things going on that got me into it, but

59:41

like I always like that part of the

59:44

World Cup. Um, but I just like what

59:48

America is truly best at in the world.

59:51

Like this is like where it's

59:52

unparalleled,

59:53

this is where it's still a uniolar world

59:56

is like production value,

59:59

you know, like like for example, if you

60:01

watch like Euro League basketball, like

60:03

production is just like off. It's just a

60:05

little off, you know? like like the

60:08

advertising, the court, the lighting,

60:10

the stadium, they try to raise the bar,

60:13

the Europeans, in terms of like

60:15

production value. And when they do, it

60:17

just like looks even worse,

60:19

you know, where Americans are just the

60:21

best at producing

60:25

entertainment. And so like the whole

60:27

like the camera angle, the flags,

60:31

Rihanna, you know, belting titanium,

60:34

like let's go. That was incredible the

60:37

way that that was done. Of course, you

60:39

guys didn't like the halftime show and

60:41

that's fine.

60:42

>> I'm I'm the Kermage in there. Like, get

60:43

Rihanna. I don't need Rihanna out here,

60:46

please.

60:47

>> We don't We don't need that either. But

60:48

like just the way Yeah, I I don't

60:50

disagree with that, Jacob. But like

60:52

everything else, I think was done better

60:53

than any other World Cup ever. It was

60:55

just like dialed in.

60:58

[snorts]

60:58

>> I I was so impressed by those those guys

61:00

who would run out with the flag every

61:02

single time. Those flags were huge. like

61:04

how many times did they have to practice

61:05

to run out there with the flag and how

61:06

many different crews did they I mean

61:08

they could have subbed in for some of

61:09

those teams the way they were running

61:10

and how efficient they were.

61:12

>> Um I'll mention one thing that I really

61:14

like and this a little bit opposite to

61:16

what Jacob said that he didn't like. Um

61:18

I think the drama and the stakes uh and

61:21

you know Jacob was saying you know like

61:23

you have this wonderful event that is

61:25

supposed to unite people. Uh no the

61:27

workup is not supposed to unite people

61:29

supposed you're supposed to win. And I

61:31

think this is the South American in me,

61:33

but like people in in football, like in

61:36

South America for example, they are

61:38

generally very cordial with each other,

61:40

the only place where they're able to

61:42

kind of like express that nationalism

61:44

and that animosity is in football. And

61:46

so like you ask anybody like in South

61:48

America, they hate Argentina. Like they

61:50

hate them like in at a very deep level.

61:52

They hate Uruguay. Uh they hate Brazil.

61:55

And so, you know, I like that the

61:58

intensity of the games, the fact that we

62:00

had so much controversy. I think that

62:02

like, you know, that you have Trump

62:04

saying, "Hey, you know what? Like, screw

62:06

you. We're going to we're going to kind

62:08

of like keep our guy because we can."

62:11

Uh, and also that you have as you get

62:14

like further in the stages, you have

62:16

like teams be like very physical with

62:18

each other. Uh, I think personally I

62:20

found that great. Uh, and I actually

62:21

find that as a something that I like

62:24

about the work.

62:24

>> Yeah. I mean to for the record I'm not

62:26

anti the drama. I would just say like um

62:28

that England Argentina match and you

62:29

know this is this is one anecdote so it

62:31

it kind of goes and also England and

62:33

Argentina have a very unique

62:34

relationship and there's the Faullands

62:36

and there's everything else that goes

62:37

with that but the national anthem thing

62:38

started like it it cast a Paul over the

62:41

the environment in the room. And I mean

62:44

I'm not exaggerating at least four

62:46

fights broke out around me at the end of

62:48

the match. And I mean like you know

62:50

dudes squaring up and actually landing

62:52

punches. There was this one woman that

62:53

was throwing drinks at some of the these

62:55

England fans and she was going through

62:56

the tunnel and these these England fans

62:58

were pelting her with like really heavy

63:01

like water bottles and beer can uh beer

63:03

bottles and things like that. There was

63:05

this one English high school kid who

63:06

started dumping a beer over an Argentine

63:09

woman's head as she's running through

63:10

the tunnel. And actually, shout out to

63:11

this English dad because this dad picked

63:13

his kid up by the the the sleeves on his

63:16

shoulder and shoved him in a chair and

63:18

started yelling at him about how like

63:20

that's not how you're supposed to

63:21

behave. And I wanted to be like, that's

63:22

how we that's how we dad. Like that's a

63:24

father right there telling his like son

63:26

who's broken. Like they're all broken

63:28

inside cuz England just watched and he

63:29

still has the wherewithal to be like sit

63:31

the [ __ ] down and you're not throwing

63:32

anything at these Argentines. But like

63:34

I'm cool with the stakes and the drama,

63:36

but like when people are punching each

63:38

other around you after the match like

63:40

that, like it was not cool. It was it

63:42

felt it felt bad.

63:43

>> But you know, to be to be clear, like I

63:45

think that's gotten a lot better though,

63:47

Jacob. like, you know, for for the rest

63:49

of us on this, you know, who have been

63:51

like watching football since we were

63:52

like before we could speak English, uh,

63:55

which is the three of us on this podcast

63:58

here. Um, it was so much worse. It was

64:01

so much worse. In like 1990 when the

64:04

World Cup was in Italy, there's a famous

64:06

documentary about this. There's a real

64:08

concern that English hooligans, you

64:11

know, England was like coming back to

64:13

the world stage after being banned after

64:15

a couple of like really bad incidents.

64:17

And there was real concern, you know,

64:19

that this was going to like result in

64:22

deaths, like massive just blood on the

64:25

streets. And I think that this is where

64:27

a lot of people um regret how expensive

64:31

these World Cup tickets are.

64:34

>> But I do think on some level, and this

64:36

is going to sound incredibly snobby and

64:38

elitas for me, but on some level, like

64:40

he just keeps the riff raff out, you

64:42

know? Sorry, this is definitely like let

64:44

him eat cake Marco moment, but you know

64:46

like huligans tend to not pay 3k for you

64:50

know a seat. So I walked in with my

64:52

daughter into a World Cup game. Granted

64:54

between two teams that definitely are

64:56

not going to start you know fighting but

64:59

there was like zero concerns like

65:01

there's no concern of security in a lot

65:03

of these games. And I think that's

65:05

awesome. I think that's that's

65:06

incredible that we've gotten to that

65:07

point. Um yeah, you're just you don't

65:10

have the kind of violence that has been

65:12

associated with football like at all.

65:15

>> But this is I mean on the one hand I

65:18

want to agree with you Marco but on the

65:19

other hand you have a lot of leagues you

65:22

know especially in Europe where tickets

65:25

you know are pretty cheap and yet you

65:28

don't you know you can still go to the

65:30

stadium with your kids and you know

65:32

you'll have a good time. Like think

65:33

about Germany like you know if you

65:35

Bundesliga you can go to stadiums

65:38

they're full they have the highest you

65:40

know rate of attendance in in Europe or

65:42

even in the world nothing will ever

65:45

happen to you. So, I think it's, you

65:47

know, I feel like it's really more of a

65:49

problem for some national teams or or or

65:52

some nationalities

65:54

um than, you know, I don't think the,

65:57

you know, having higher more expensive

65:59

uh tickets will

66:00

>> No, you're right.

66:01

>> I think it penalizes

66:04

>> it penalizes, you know, the the greater

66:06

number because of the actions of a of a

66:08

few.

66:08

>> No, you're actually right. I think uh I

66:10

definitely came off way too elitist. And

66:12

I will say this, I think you're

66:13

absolutely right because I remember the

66:15

first time I ever went to a game and and

66:17

what a way to be introduced to football.

66:19

It was in Belgrade. I'm I think I'm like

66:21

six, seven years old and it's Red Star

66:23

versus Partisan like and I remember my

66:26

dad would always whether we watch

66:28

basketball or football have us sitting

66:30

in the aisle

66:31

and always like behind the goal or

66:34

behind the basket. And I was always

66:36

like, "But dad, I want to be in the

66:37

middle." Like, you know, why can't we be

66:39

in the middle? And he was always like,

66:41

"This is the easiest way to exit the

66:43

stadium." Like, [laughter] and I was

66:45

like, "Why does that matter?" And then

66:47

the game would start and I'll be like,

66:48

"Oh, okay." And you're right. Like, uh,

66:52

so like, you're totally right. I don't

66:54

think it's monetary. I scratch my other

66:57

comment. I think you're right. It's

66:59

cultural. I think we've become less

67:01

violent

67:02

in sports. Like, I tourists go to

67:05

Belgrade now to watch Partisan versus

67:07

Red Star. like this is a tourist

67:09

attraction. Tickets are like €200 euros

67:12

to go sit in a stadium and watch this

67:14

because it's cool and because the the

67:16

fans themselves choreograph these, you

67:19

know, what would have seen as very

67:21

threatening and violent this place,

67:23

they're now like actually cool and fun

67:25

and it's not violent at all. Um, so

67:28

that's cool. I mean, I think that

67:29

evolution of football is really cool.

67:32

>> Yeah, I I hope you guys are right. I I

67:33

was after after attending England

67:35

Argentina, I was grateful that the US

67:36

and Iran didn't face each other. because

67:38

I'm not sure.

67:38

>> Oh, no. Nothing would have happened.

67:40

Nothing would have happened.

67:42

>> I I don't know. You put a bunch of I

67:44

don't know. But uh

67:45

>> the support for the Iran war is below

67:47

30%. Like

67:49

>> that's I get you.

67:50

>> And the people who support the war

67:52

against Iran, I'm going to go out on my

67:55

limb uh with a high conviction view say

67:58

are not football fans and are not paying

68:00

2K to go to a game. You know what I

68:02

mean? Like those those people. One of

68:03

the amazing things about Trump, he got

68:05

Republican senators talking about uh

68:07

about FIFA and soccer and the red card

68:09

in Balagot. I mean, when Ted Cruz

68:10

walking around talking about this, it's

68:12

incredible.

68:12

>> Dudes with like um a a window print of

68:16

an American flag being torn by a bald

68:19

eagle. Like those guys are not going to

68:22

go to that game, you know? Like I I just

68:24

think like I think that would have been

68:25

actually I think if US had played Iran

68:28

that would have been maybe the best

68:30

game. And I and I feel like the American

68:32

fans would have actually been incredibly

68:34

generous. So to your point, Jacob, you

68:37

know, your earlier point, you know,

68:38

saying that the way that the American

68:40

government treated Iranian soccer

68:42

players was one of the things you didn't

68:43

like. I I agree with you. But I think

68:46

that had the American fans had a chance,

68:49

you would have seen the other side of

68:51

America, which by the way, so many other

68:53

people saw. So, this is one of the other

68:55

things I would say I I really like and

68:57

and I already mentioned this to you uh

68:58

Jacob in one of our podcasts. All these

69:01

YouTube clips and videos of Europeans

69:03

running around America loving America

69:06

and being like so like pleasantly

69:09

surprised by like bies or like highways,

69:13

>> ranch dressing, cars, you know,

69:16

>> man, check out blue cheese. Like ranch

69:17

is fine, but like go get you some wings

69:19

and some blue cheese, you know? and then

69:21

some some English guy driving in a wagon

69:23

ear and being like, "What the [ __ ] is

69:25

this?" you know, like. So, [snorts] I

69:27

thought that was also cool. And I think

69:28

that um I think that that was

69:32

heartwarming to see. Yeah. I I want to

69:35

say a few things I liked and and the

69:36

first is not specific to the World Cup.

69:38

It's just about why soccer is so is such

69:41

a great sport. Um which is the

69:43

continuous action. Um, and it's a small

69:46

point, but it's like even with the

69:48

hydration breaks. It's like you sit down

69:49

and for 45 minutes you have to watch

69:51

like uh I'm I'm stealing this point. I

69:53

think it was from uh Bill Simmons or

69:55

somebody like in the Ringer Network was

69:57

like this is the only sport where I can

69:59

go to a bar and watch it because

70:01

everybody understands that when it's on,

70:03

we're all looking. We're watching. We're

70:04

not having conversations over here. Like

70:06

we're not doing side things. It's like

70:07

because if you turn your head away for

70:09

30 seconds, you're going to miss all the

70:10

action. And I hope I hope there is

70:13

somebody in the NBA league office who is

70:15

watching this or who is listening to

70:16

this. Basketball could be like this. If

70:19

you take away a lot of the timeouts and

70:21

the stoppages and the video blah blah

70:22

blah blah blah like you want to copy

70:25

what soccer is doing because it first of

70:26

all gives you like a set amount of time

70:28

that this match is going to go so you

70:30

know you know roughly how long you have

70:32

to be there. And number two you actually

70:34

have to focus like the stakes like you

70:35

have to put your phone down for a

70:37

second. You have to pay attention and be

70:38

in the moment. It's a wonderful thing

70:40

for that. But it's funny, you guys

70:41

talked about some of the things you

70:42

liked. For me, and maybe this just uh

70:44

betrays like who I am as an analyst,

70:46

too, cousin. Um, for me, it was like the

70:48

narratives, that Mexico England match. I

70:50

will remember that match for the rest of

70:52

my life. Like you get the red card on

70:54

England. It's like they've got however

70:56

what 30 minutes, 35 minutes, they're

70:58

down a man and they're just hunkered

70:59

down and, you know, they're having to

71:01

fend off shot after shot after shot and

71:03

I'm just like sitting up watching like

71:05

can't help myself like watching my

71:07

allegiances shift in real time because

71:08

of what they're doing. Like I thought

71:10

that was an incredible um underdog

71:12

performance under duress and how as a

71:14

team they were were able to survive

71:15

that. And you took the drive drive by

71:17

Cape Verde cousin. I thought the Cape

71:19

Verde story was amazing. This is going

71:21

to be nation changing for for Cape

71:23

Verde. Um and just the idea that you can

71:26

have like fine they didn't get to the

71:28

finals and y'all's model was right about

71:30

who got there and you have to have a big

71:31

country and infrastructure and blah blah

71:33

blah but I loved these Cinderella

71:35

stories. I loved that we got fairly far

71:37

into the tournament and you had Capefar

71:39

putting up a fight against Messi and

71:42

Argentina. You had Switzerland or like

71:44

some of these randos putting up a really

71:46

good fight until the very end and that

71:48

sort of David versus Goliath narrative

71:51

like I mean that's what it's all about.

71:52

So I I really enjoyed the narratives and

71:54

I don't know how you I mean maybe it's

71:56

because they added more teams, maybe it

71:58

was just an ex exceptional year. Uh for

72:00

me the drama was in that we didn't quite

72:02

know what was going to happen that you

72:04

did have this Norway team that came out

72:06

of nowhere with the rowing and like that

72:08

those narratives did really well and

72:10

it's going to be very hard I like that's

72:11

not about production values it's just

72:13

you had compelling people and compelling

72:15

national narratives competing on a

72:18

global stage in a real in a really great

72:19

way like those those things will stay

72:21

with me for a long time.

72:23

All right. So, [clears throat]

72:26

uh, last segment. The most geopolitical

72:28

>> we got to do in 12 minutes because I got

72:29

to get out of here in 12 minutes.

72:31

>> Yes. Yes. Same here. So, okay. So, first

72:33

of all, Robert had to uh leave us um to

72:36

go work and make money uh while the rest

72:38

of us have fun on Thank you, Robert. Um

72:41

so his point was his point was um he

72:45

[clears throat] thought it was very

72:46

interesting that when Belgium

72:49

got basically um you know put into the

72:52

situation where the best player on the

72:54

US squad was rescued by the US president

72:56

the Europeans did not do anything about

72:59

it. They did not band together the

73:01

federations UEFA. UEFA is the European

73:05

Federation and often has slightly

73:08

antagonistic relationship with FIFA

73:10

which is global. And [clears throat] so

73:12

uh there was nothing like nobody stood

73:14

up for the Belgiums. They had they were

73:16

on their own and Robert's point is

73:17

that's very indicative of real life as

73:19

well. So I thought it was interesting.

73:21

Um yeah, that's that was kind of the way

73:24

that uh life um in soccer in football

73:29

did resemble the geopolitical reality in

73:32

the world as well. So

73:34

>> there there was also another side of

73:35

this that I I actually brought this up

73:36

the other day and I I forget where I

73:38

brought it up, but somebody kind of

73:39

criticized me for thinking about it this

73:41

way, but you know, the United States

73:42

team could have also said, "No thanks."

73:45

Like we we don't want the help.

73:47

>> That's hard. That's

73:49

>> really hard, but like you know It's a

73:51

really good point. Even Balog good

73:52

himself, I mean, it's it's highly

73:54

controversial, but he could have said,

73:56

I'm not going to play, you know, I'm not

73:58

going to I don't agree with the the

74:00

decision. I think, you know, the the red

74:02

card I got was I mean, it was fair and

74:05

square. I I you know, we all saw how I

74:07

got, you know, the foul he committed. I

74:10

mean, Messi did something far worse in

74:12

the first game against Algeria and got

74:16

away with nothing. But see, but that's

74:18

the that's why it was so difficult to

74:20

put it on the team or the fans of the US

74:23

or Balagon himself because it wasn't

74:26

really it was it was a it was one of

74:29

those plays that's careless

74:32

like you do get penalized for this and a

74:34

lot of American football fans were like

74:36

but he didn't mean it like it doesn't

74:37

matter if you swing your leg or you fly

74:40

out of control that is a careless you

74:42

were being careless you were not yeah

74:45

like those are penalized but I do think

74:47

I think it would have been difficult

74:48

because there was no intent. And that's

74:51

where like in the NBA, this happens all

74:53

the [ __ ] time. And you know, we know

74:56

we're conditioned in basketball to know

74:58

that the commissioner of the league, his

75:01

intention is to ensure that the stars

75:03

keep playing. Like when this happens in

75:06

basketball, we're all like, "Oh, thank

75:08

God." Like when he elbowed um uh Naz

75:13

Reed, that's an automatic suspension.

75:16

That's a like that flagrant should have

75:18

carried on to the next game and the

75:19

league was like, "Nah, we're good

75:21

because we're not going to take out

75:23

Victor Webeyama in the Western

75:25

Conference Finals." Like that's just not

75:27

going to [ __ ] happen. Like, no,

75:28

sorry, semi-finals. But the point is, we

75:31

were conditioned for that in basketball,

75:33

but not in in football and in FIFA. And

75:35

so that's where I also think that

75:37

Trump's intervention like I I wonder if

75:39

FIFA would have done this anyways, but

75:42

what happened was Trump leaked that he

75:44

was the one that asked for it to be

75:46

rescended because he wanted to be the

75:48

hero just like he wanted to dance the

75:50

Trump dance with the Spanish on stage

75:52

which was one of the most hilarious

75:54

moments ever.

75:55

>> So funny. Unbelievable.

75:59

>> Okay, two more. One, Jeremy, most

76:01

geopolitical.

76:03

So had you know everything that happened

76:07

around uh Iran in the World Cup from uh

76:11

not you know at first threatening to not

76:13

participate and then participating but

76:16

not being able to access you know to

76:17

stay uh in the US and having to commute.

76:21

I don't know if the that's the proper

76:22

word but from Mexico throughout the

76:24

entire tournament. And it's a shame

76:26

because when you look back at the group

76:28

stage performance of Iran it was quite

76:30

strong. They haven't lost a single game

76:33

in the group stage, you know. So, it's a

76:36

so really and you could tell and I

76:38

watched most of of their games, they

76:40

were really committed to, you know,

76:42

putting on a good a strong performance,

76:44

a strong show. Uh, so that would be, you

76:46

know, from a geopolitical standpoint,

76:48

that would be the one that really, you

76:49

know, um u that I would highlight. The

76:53

second one in minor and very quickly, it

76:55

was the the spot that was between um a

76:59

senator from Paraguay. I don't know if

77:01

you you've heard about it who

77:02

essentially that senator went ballistic

77:06

on Mbappe and the French team with a lot

77:09

of you know racist comments. Uh and that

77:11

was I was shocked like I didn't expect

77:14

this in 2026 you know during a World Cup

77:18

from a senator from a you know so that

77:21

was that was pretty surprising to me. I

77:23

was I was shocked.

77:25

Um, I'll give my geopolitical one is

77:28

that Trump apparently wants Gian

77:30

infantino to be the chair of uh or

77:32

secretary general of the UN. So just as

77:36

geopolitics sort of like feel seeps into

77:38

soccer now we're having soccer you know

77:41

seeping into geopolitics. So I I thought

77:44

that was um it was funny. But yeah, I

77:46

think that will be mine.

77:49

>> Mine I mine is just that immigration

77:52

works, you know. I think that's, you

77:54

know, so the opposite of what the

77:56

Paraguayan senator said. Um the French

77:59

team is full of French people, you know,

78:01

uh who happen to be black, uh and who

78:05

happen to have, you know, uh backgrounds

78:07

from some other place. You know, the

78:09

Swiss team is full of immigrants and

78:12

they are Swiss and there's things

78:14

happening in Swiss identity and national

78:18

national kind of sense of self that the

78:21

success of the Swiss team has really

78:23

done like not to get on a side

78:26

sidetracked on Switzerland. Um but like

78:29

there's a lot of examples where um this

78:31

is just you know the peraguan senator

78:34

who woke up in a cave and like got out

78:35

of it and was like

78:38

um this was legislated back in 1998, you

78:43

know, 30 years ago. Like nobody really

78:45

cares about this anymore. And I think

78:48

that especially when it comes to Europe,

78:51

the the idea that European countries

78:53

have failed in immigration,

78:55

that's a little bit of an early 2000s

78:57

story, you know? So like to someone from

79:00

like South America who like doesn't

79:02

understand what's going on in Europe,

79:05

maybe to that senator and also by the

79:08

way to Chill, which was like really

79:10

demeaning. I mean, he's a former

79:11

footballer. You would think he would

79:12

know better. this is the uh president of

79:14

the Peraguen Federation who was a you

79:16

know star goalkeeper. Um but like this

79:20

is no longer really an issue in Europe

79:23

and I think that's that is really

79:25

interesting to me and I don't think we

79:27

pay enough attention to that. We paid a

79:30

lot of attention to it in the early

79:31

2000s, you know, especially when that

79:33

famous like French team like destroyed

79:35

itself, you know, like some were saying

79:38

it was along like [clears throat]

79:39

different cultural lines, the the

79:41

different groups. Well, that wasn't the

79:43

case. The the manager was just insane,

79:47

which is probably the most French thing

79:48

ever, Jeremy. You know, like the leader

79:50

was just head of Napoleonic complex like

79:52

[laughter]

79:53

uh but I think that that was really

79:56

interesting to me and I think it's

79:57

geopolitical. I think it's it's a sign

79:59

that right as every single country in

80:01

the west is limiting immigration, we're

80:04

seeing the success of it on the pitch.

80:08

>> Yeah, cuz I I hear you, cousin. Although

80:09

like uh it's funny, I have reasons to

80:11

follow the Austrian team now and like I

80:13

was looking at the Austrian team and I

80:14

was like that team looks pretty

80:15

Austrian. You can tell like there were

80:16

one or two players that did not look

80:17

Austrian, but like most Austria has a

80:20

different relationship with than some of

80:21

the other. And by the way, I mean I

80:23

don't know if this has to do Yeah. Not

80:24

the best, but I mean most of the team

80:25

and also Italy player's name is Marco in

80:28

a cake.

80:29

>> Yeah. [laughter] Yeah, I know. Italy

80:30

also nowhere to be found. Like as

80:32

somebody who's a recent arrival to

80:34

soccer, I was like, "Oh, Italy's won how

80:35

many World Cups and they're not even Did

80:37

I Did I miss them in the group stage?"

80:38

Like, no, they they're just literally

80:40

not here. But I would just think about

80:41

what you said, cousin. Um, which is that

80:43

the primacy of the nation state,

80:45

>> the health of the nation state is fine.

80:48

like people the national feelings about

80:50

these countries, the people in the

80:52

streets celebrating everybody thinking

80:53

about it. Like I I worry about the the

80:56

breakdown of the relationship between

80:58

nations and younger citizens and Gen Z.

81:00

I mean maybe there are still tons of

81:01

things that push in that direction, but

81:02

the World Cup is showing you now the

81:04

nation state is where it's at. Like

81:06

screw FIFA, screw everything else. Like

81:08

the core of this is that people feel

81:10

very passionate about their nation

81:11

states. And that's why you can't

81:12

replicate this in any kind of

81:13

professional league or in any other

81:15

particular way. like that is the secret

81:17

sauce. It is nations doing battle

81:19

against nations every four years. So

81:21

that there is something that is still

81:22

healthy in the primacy of the nation

81:24

state in the world which I'm sure the

81:25

Trump administration is very happy

81:27

about.

81:31

Is that phenito? All right. Well guys,

81:33

thank you so much. Um I look forward to

81:35

your women's World Cup report that

81:37

you're going to produce next year. Yeah.

81:38

And you got to do the Euros and you got

81:40

to do the Champions League. Like you're

81:42

going to have to do this through

81:43

multiple iterations. Like don't just

81:45

think this is a onetrick pony. You can

81:46

you can

81:48

[laughter]

81:48

>> all of us have a real job trying to

81:51

forecast the markets. So uh I'm just

81:53

going to put a pin in that and say no.

81:55

We do men's World Cup once every four

81:57

years. If if if anybody doesn't like it,

82:00

it's Trump's America now.

82:03

>> All right. Well, sounds good. Sounds

82:04

like there's opportunity out there for

82:06

other folks. Thanks all. Thanks y'all

82:07

for making the time. [music]

82:08

>> Thank you guys.

Interactive Summary

In this episode, the hosts and guests from BCA Research recap the recent World Cup, analyzing the performance of their quantitative model, the impact of star players like Lionel Messi, and the broader geopolitical and cultural significance of the tournament. The discussion highlights the model's successes and failures, debates the role of individual 'goat' variables versus systemic factors, and explores various controversies, from officiating and FIFA's actions to stadium atmosphere and political interferences.

Suggested questions

3 ready-made prompts