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Everyone was waiting for $45,000. Bitcoin nearly touched $80,000.

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Everyone was waiting for $45,000. Bitcoin nearly touched $80,000.

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407 segments

0:02

Bitcoin is currently having its best

0:04

week since 2023 giving even higher

0:06

conviction in the market that the bottom

0:08

may be in. Bulls are euphoric, bears are

0:10

licking their wounds. We're going to

0:11

talk about all the news that's driving

0:13

the market right now on the Daily Wolf.

0:15

Let's go.

0:21

What is up everybody? Happy Friday and

0:24

welcome to the Daily Wolf on Yahoo

0:26

Finance. I'm your host Scott Melker also

0:28

known as The Wolf of All Streets. You

0:30

can find me on X at Scott Melker. Find

0:33

me on YouTube at Scott Melker. I had an

0:35

incredible YouTube show this morning.

0:38

For those of you who missed it, had both

0:40

Matt Hogan and Going Parabolic Jason

0:42

Williams on as guests helping me to

0:45

unpack this maybe early iteration of a

0:49

Bitcoin bull market that we're starting

0:51

to see. So, we can't talk about

0:54

the news today without talking about the

0:56

price. So, let's just show you what's

0:58

going on. Bearish crypto bets lose

1:00

record 3 billion as Bitcoin tops 71,000.

1:03

That was yesterday and then I woke up

1:05

and it was up to almost 80,000

1:09

dollar Bitcoin and that 3 billion in

1:11

liquidated shorts had become almost 4

1:14

billion. So, what we have here is

1:16

Bitcoin up roughly 24% this week. Once

1:19

again, the strongest week since 2023.

1:22

Bitcoin ETFs added 606 million dollars

1:25

just Thursday after over 500 million on

1:27

Wednesday. Ether ETFs also added 221

1:31

million which is a sizeable number

1:32

relative to total inflows into ETFs.

1:36

Now, more than 4 billion as I said in

1:38

crypto shorts liquidated over 2 days

1:41

giving us much more evidence that maybe

1:43

the bottom is in. So, I'm going to just

1:46

re-very quickly go through the mechanics

1:47

of what happened. We had the news from

1:49

Scott Bessent.

1:50

That was the trigger. Then we had

1:53

massive liquidations of shorts which

1:54

sent price higher. Then we had the White

1:57

House coming in and saying bullish

1:59

things about crypto. That sent price up

2:00

into the 70s. But waking up this morning

2:03

and seeing price almost 80,000 cannot be

2:05

explained by any of the three of those.

2:07

This is real buying. We're seeing it

2:10

through institutions on the ETFs. We're

2:12

seeing it through retail. I'll tell you

2:13

about that a little bit later. This is

2:16

real buying. There is real confidence in

2:18

the market. Now, I don't want to steal

2:20

the words of my friend Matt Hogan from

2:21

this morning, but he made the point that

2:23

he does not think this is impulsive

2:25

buyers that are buying Bitcoin at 72,000

2:28

to sell at 76.

2:30

He thinks that there's been a lot of

2:33

sentiment that once Bitcoin gets going,

2:35

we are once again entering 3 years of a

2:37

bull market in the 4-year cycle and

2:39

people are starting to position for that

2:41

time. So, he believes and I tend to

2:43

agree that a lot of the buying we're

2:45

seeing right now is buyers that want to

2:47

hold this asset to new all-time highs

2:49

beyond 126,000

2:51

up into 150, 200, 250,000

2:54

if this market does what we think it

2:56

can. Now, I've been telling you

2:58

literally for months that I thought the

2:59

bottom was in. This is giving me a bit

3:01

more confidence that may be true. We

3:03

could go right back down. You know how

3:04

Bitcoin is. But this is a real move on

3:07

real volume with real catalysts that are

3:11

sending it upwards. Interestingly,

3:13

nothing's really changed for Bitcoin

3:15

except for the price. At 60,000, the

3:17

fundamentals were just as strong as they

3:19

are at 80,000. But we know that people

3:21

love to buy it. Now, my question for you

3:23

as the audience to others there's of

3:25

people on the sidelines that been

3:26

waiting for Bitcoin to go down to 45 or

3:29

50,000. I was recently on the When Shift

3:31

Happens podcast

3:33

and I said that there's no more

3:35

dangerous sentiment in markets than I'm

3:37

going to sell to buy back lower. And a

3:40

lot of people have been waiting to buy

3:41

back lower. I'm curious if they're going

3:44

to buy here at you know, 75, 80, 85 or

3:47

if they're still waiting for Bitcoin to

3:49

head down to 45 or 50,000 to put in

3:52

those bids. So, you know, the bears were

3:55

waiting here for a FTX event to send

3:57

price lower and instead they got

4:00

liquidated. Now, we have some bullish

4:02

news on the regulatory side. US CFTC

4:05

chief put staff on notice to create

4:07

crypto regulations if Clarity Act fails.

4:10

CFTC Commissioner Mike Seelig told the

4:12

inaugural gathering of the Innovation

4:14

Advisory Committee that his agency won't

4:16

sit idle. This is the same series of

4:18

meetings and people that we've been

4:20

reporting on from the White House all

4:21

week, but it's been a very very

4:23

interesting week because clearly we're

4:25

in the summer doldrums here waiting for

4:27

Congress to come back and potentially

4:29

act on clarity.

4:31

But we know that clarity is very

4:32

unlikely to happen. Right? I think last

4:34

I checked prediction markets had it at

4:35

roughly 10%. Even the most bullish

4:37

analysts who had it at 70% before like

4:39

Galaxy down to 5-10%. I've told you for

4:42

me, since December, it's been 5% or less

4:45

that it would pass. So, it seems like

4:48

the regulators are operating on the

4:50

assumption that it won't pass. We know

4:52

that they've wanted to pass pro-crypto

4:54

regulation and start to write rules, but

4:57

I think that they were waiting on the

4:58

sidelines to see what happened with

4:59

clarity because why waste their time and

5:01

effort preempting something that could

5:02

be a law and make their lives much

5:04

easier. Now, with the assumption that

5:06

it's not going to go into law

5:08

and having meetings here with the

5:09

Innovation Advisory Committee, we can

5:11

see they're moving forward. So, what

5:12

happened? Earlier this week, the SEC

5:14

under one Paul Atkins

5:17

went ahead and made regulation crypto.

5:20

We talked about that, right? It sets

5:21

rules for fundraising, for safe harbor

5:24

so that you can become sufficiently

5:25

decentralized and not be named a

5:27

security. Well, here Mike Seelig, who is

5:29

a CFTC Commissioner of one, is saying

5:31

the CFTC is going to do the same thing.

5:33

He said, "The staff will explore a new

5:35

regulated crypto asset market category."

5:39

He wants rules allowing developers to

5:41

legally launch and operate protocols in

5:43

America. Be huge for bringing innovation

5:46

back to the United States, just like

5:47

Cboe, uh just like Acton's new proposal

5:50

at the SEC. But he went on to say this

5:52

cannot fully replace clarity, much like

5:54

we saw Acton saying that we still do

5:56

need laws on the books so that if we get

5:58

a new regulator, these rules cannot be

6:00

replaced. But yeah, he as he said,

6:03

"Agency rules are also easier to

6:05

challenge in court or reverse under a

6:07

future administration." So,

6:10

this is what's happening. The regulators

6:12

are moving forward. They don't think

6:13

that clarity is going to happen and they

6:15

are going to make rules, which then puts

6:17

the onus on the crypto industry, in my

6:18

mind, to become too big to fail over the

6:20

next 2 and 1/2 years before we likely

6:22

get regime change. You may not get

6:24

regime change. But if we come to a

6:27

presidential election next time and the

6:29

crypto industry is still, you know,

6:31

fumbling about,

6:33

we're going to have big problems and we

6:35

could see a reversal. We need the laws

6:37

to obviously cement what they're doing,

6:39

but getting favorable regulation and

6:41

building to the point where nobody can

6:43

stop us, that is the move that we are

6:45

looking for and there are people

6:48

that are trying to stop us.

6:50

CME CME CEO Terrence Duffy trades barbs

6:54

with CFTC Cboe and Calshi COO over

6:57

prediction market oversight. So now

6:58

you'll remember that the CME freaked out

7:01

when Calshi had perpetual swaps

7:04

approved. We talked about that story.

7:06

They said that they

7:07

you know, that's gambling and perpetual

7:09

futures should not be regulated by the

7:11

CFTC and that they're not really

7:13

derivatives contracts, blah blah blah.

7:14

Now they're having the same kind of

7:16

comments over prediction markets. So he

7:18

said the prediction markets, this is the

7:21

CME CEO Terrence Duffy, accused

7:22

prediction markets of tolerating

7:24

manipulation and insider trading. Cboe

7:26

came back and said, "These are fake news

7:29

because the contracts are offshore." I

7:32

mean, nothing says regulator regulatory

7:33

clarity like the regulator calling the

7:35

world's largest futures exchange fake

7:37

news.

7:40

It is very very mature. Uh the United

7:42

States government here. Right? But there

7:44

is still we have the turf war between

7:46

the federal government and the states

7:48

over prediction markets that we've long

7:50

reported on. Now, you also have it

7:52

between the incumbents who probably want

7:55

to slow these industries like crypto and

7:56

prediction markets down so that they can

7:58

get their piece of it, which they're all

8:00

trying to do. So, we have the incumbents

8:02

actually battling the regulators as well

8:05

over whose turf this is and what kind of

8:07

products can be, uh, released. Now,

8:10

listen, there's definitely some insider

8:11

trading in prediction markets. Right?

8:13

But that doesn't mean the prediction

8:14

markets should not exist or that

8:16

anything actually stops this train. But

8:19

it's a really interesting time that

8:21

we're in right now, uh, with the

8:22

regulatory regime, the incumbents, the

8:24

states. A lot of confusion as to who is

8:26

going to regulate what and a lot of that

8:28

comes from an overbearing regulatory

8:29

regime that we had before under one

8:32

President Joseph Biden. Now, going back

8:35

to crypto volumes, we have a update to a

8:38

story that I told you, I don't know, all

8:40

of like yesterday or the day before

8:41

here. Yeah, remember I told you that the

8:43

South Koreans weren't trading anymore,

8:45

crypto volumes were down massively,

8:46

they'd gone to SK Hynix and and Samsung

8:49

and were using leverage leverage ETFs.

8:51

Well, in the words of Poltergeist,

8:53

they're back. Up it trading volume

8:56

spikes 273% in a day. Calm down. As

8:59

South Korean investors re-enter crypto.

9:02

So, up its daily volume volume surged

9:04

273% to 1.84 billion. Busiest day since

9:08

March. Bithumb hum hum thumb thumb

9:11

Bithumb. Volume jumped 133%.

9:15

Now, interestingly, XRP was the most

9:17

actively traded asset on both exchanges.

9:19

We've seen this in South Korea many,

9:21

many times. These guys love to speculate

9:23

and they go love to go a little further

9:24

down the risk curve than Bitcoin to do

9:26

it. Last I checked, you know, I I think

9:28

XRP had been trading under a buck. It

9:30

was pushing $1.40 at at one point today.

9:33

So, massive move there and

9:35

you know, uh when the South Koreans get

9:37

on something, you're going to see more

9:38

volatility and more up and downside on

9:40

an asset that they choose uh in the

9:42

short term. But, we talked about all the

9:44

rotation.

9:46

Koreans spend you know, spent the whole

9:47

bear market chasing Samsung and SK Hynix

9:50

and leverage. Well, this is the first

9:53

hint that the rotation is coming back.

9:56

And this is something that we've been

9:57

talking about over and over and over

9:58

again on this show, other shows, with

10:00

every single guest.

10:02

There's a hot ball of money for

10:04

speculation, right? And for years that

10:07

was in crypto, specifically in Bitcoin

10:09

and altcoins. Then, with the

10:13

with the proliferation of derivatives

10:16

and perpetual swaps on hyper liquid on

10:18

other assets, that hot ball of money was

10:20

able to move. So, you went crypto to

10:21

gold and silver to oil to pre-IPO SpaceX

10:25

and then all over the place. Now, you

10:26

can gamble on anything. You didn't need

10:27

to gamble on Bitcoin and altcoins, so

10:29

they became a bit out of vogue. But, we

10:32

keep saying there will be a time when

10:34

that hot ball of money returns to

10:35

crypto. I think that hot ball of money

10:39

is now returning to crypto and this is

10:41

the first indication that that might be

10:43

true. We're seeing it in the ETFs, we're

10:44

seeing it in the exchange volumes in the

10:46

United States, and we see it even

10:48

compounded with exchange volume in South

10:50

Korea. Now, also from our friends in

10:52

Asia, Nomura Backed Laser Digital wins

10:54

Japan's first crypto approval in 4

10:56

years. Now, it's not such a big deal,

10:59

the approval that they got. I mean,

11:00

they're going to provide liquidity to

11:01

domestic crypto firms. This is sort of

11:04

on the institutional side and not an

11:06

indication of retail volume coming back,

11:08

but interestingly,

11:09

Japan has been on the sidelines and has

11:11

done some very, very favorable

11:13

legislating and regulating of late, and

11:15

now we're seeing it actually come into

11:17

place. I mean, we have Asian retail and

11:18

institutional infrastructure reawakening

11:22

at exactly the same time. I mean, you

11:24

know, Japan spent 4 years here checking

11:26

Nomura's paperwork, and someone finally

11:28

found the correct fax machine, I guess.

11:31

Um because the the you know Yeah,

11:34

regulators, governments, they're slow.

11:35

That's that's what that joke was.

11:37

That's what that joke was. So, in uh

11:39

less uh favorable and exciting news,

11:42

I've been reporting obviously on the

11:44

crisis in self-custody.

11:47

Coldcard ships firmware after 114

11:49

million Bitcoin theft, says AI helped

11:52

catch more bugs, but the real story here

11:55

is that they came out and said, "We

11:57

still haven't really fixed this."

12:00

It's been weeks.

12:01

Uh ongoing exploit for Coldcard. Most

12:04

people have probably done what they need

12:05

to solve this, but still a problem here

12:07

in self-custody, especially when you

12:09

compound SafePal and Trezor and Bits of

12:12

Gold releasing

12:13

uh hundreds of thousands in hacked

12:15

information on people who bought these

12:17

self-custody solutions. But, this is

12:19

what they said, right? They released new

12:21

Coldcard firmware, but they said simply

12:24

installing the update does not make an

12:26

effective wallet safe. So, anyone who

12:29

generated a seed on a vulnerable

12:31

firmware between 2021 and 2026 must

12:34

create a new seed and move the Bitcoin.

12:38

A new seed generation requires 65

12:40

unpredictable button presses, 50 dice

12:43

rolls, or 128 coin flips. Who is still

12:47

doing this?

12:48

Get your money off of a Coldcard and to

12:51

literally anywhere else.

12:53

This is absolutely insane. And I mean,

12:55

to just to kind of compound on that,

12:58

I've got a story here. AI adoption in

13:00

crypto crime rose 40% over the past

13:03

year. We know that all of this is going

13:05

to become exponentially worse in a world

13:08

of AI. It is time to just pick the best

13:10

projects, the best security, and hold

13:13

and be extremely vigilant, because we

13:16

have our favorite segment right now that

13:18

aligns very well with that. It's how not

13:19

to invest. Hit it.

13:21

>> How not to invest. [music]

13:23

>> How not to invest.

13:26

>> How not to invest. Mantra blockchain

13:29

halts after exploit. These guys had

13:31

problems just a few months ago. This is

13:33

one of the hotter projects just a few

13:35

years ago. But here's the story. Mantra

13:37

token plunges 18% to record lows as

13:39

blockchain halts after exploit. Token

13:42

token touched 0.004126

13:47

minutes after the network stopped

13:49

producing blocks. Well, Mantra later

13:51

said an attacker exploited a

13:52

vulnerability in software used by the

13:54

chain.

13:56

Once again,

13:58

I don't even need to talk so deeply

14:00

about the Mantra token specifically or

14:03

their chain. This is just a reminder

14:05

that with AI and Lazarus Group and all

14:09

of the other ways for hackers and

14:11

exploiters to take your money, you do

14:14

not need to be invested or using chains

14:17

that do not have the vigilant security

14:20

budgets or team working behind them

14:23

because they will get hacked. Harmony,

14:25

Raven coin, Mantra. We have this endless

14:28

list of exploits seemingly every single

14:30

day that are losing people who have not

14:32

been vigilant, who are just sitting on

14:33

the sidelines holding assets from

14:35

previous cycles waiting for them to go

14:37

down fastly. Guys, the Bitcoin bull

14:39

market may be back. If you're looking at

14:41

chart, 82,800

14:43

is the line where the market would make

14:45

a higher high and kill the bear market

14:47

structure. I'll have my eyes on that all

14:49

weekend and I'll be back to discuss it

14:50

with you on Monday.

14:52

Peace.

Interactive Summary

This episode of the Daily Wolf explores the current surge in the Bitcoin market, with prices approaching 80,000 dollars, driven by institutional ETF inflows and real market conviction. The host highlights the liquidation of record amounts of short positions and discusses how market sentiment seems to be shifting toward a new bull market cycle. Additionally, the episode covers regulatory developments at the CFTC and SEC, the return of trading volumes in South Korea, and critical security warnings regarding self-custody wallets like Coldcard and the risks of investing in less secure blockchain projects.

Suggested questions

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