Everyone was waiting for $45,000. Bitcoin nearly touched $80,000.
407 segments
Bitcoin is currently having its best
week since 2023 giving even higher
conviction in the market that the bottom
may be in. Bulls are euphoric, bears are
licking their wounds. We're going to
talk about all the news that's driving
the market right now on the Daily Wolf.
Let's go.
What is up everybody? Happy Friday and
welcome to the Daily Wolf on Yahoo
Finance. I'm your host Scott Melker also
known as The Wolf of All Streets. You
can find me on X at Scott Melker. Find
me on YouTube at Scott Melker. I had an
incredible YouTube show this morning.
For those of you who missed it, had both
Matt Hogan and Going Parabolic Jason
Williams on as guests helping me to
unpack this maybe early iteration of a
Bitcoin bull market that we're starting
to see. So, we can't talk about
the news today without talking about the
price. So, let's just show you what's
going on. Bearish crypto bets lose
record 3 billion as Bitcoin tops 71,000.
That was yesterday and then I woke up
and it was up to almost 80,000
dollar Bitcoin and that 3 billion in
liquidated shorts had become almost 4
billion. So, what we have here is
Bitcoin up roughly 24% this week. Once
again, the strongest week since 2023.
Bitcoin ETFs added 606 million dollars
just Thursday after over 500 million on
Wednesday. Ether ETFs also added 221
million which is a sizeable number
relative to total inflows into ETFs.
Now, more than 4 billion as I said in
crypto shorts liquidated over 2 days
giving us much more evidence that maybe
the bottom is in. So, I'm going to just
re-very quickly go through the mechanics
of what happened. We had the news from
Scott Bessent.
That was the trigger. Then we had
massive liquidations of shorts which
sent price higher. Then we had the White
House coming in and saying bullish
things about crypto. That sent price up
into the 70s. But waking up this morning
and seeing price almost 80,000 cannot be
explained by any of the three of those.
This is real buying. We're seeing it
through institutions on the ETFs. We're
seeing it through retail. I'll tell you
about that a little bit later. This is
real buying. There is real confidence in
the market. Now, I don't want to steal
the words of my friend Matt Hogan from
this morning, but he made the point that
he does not think this is impulsive
buyers that are buying Bitcoin at 72,000
to sell at 76.
He thinks that there's been a lot of
sentiment that once Bitcoin gets going,
we are once again entering 3 years of a
bull market in the 4-year cycle and
people are starting to position for that
time. So, he believes and I tend to
agree that a lot of the buying we're
seeing right now is buyers that want to
hold this asset to new all-time highs
beyond 126,000
up into 150, 200, 250,000
if this market does what we think it
can. Now, I've been telling you
literally for months that I thought the
bottom was in. This is giving me a bit
more confidence that may be true. We
could go right back down. You know how
Bitcoin is. But this is a real move on
real volume with real catalysts that are
sending it upwards. Interestingly,
nothing's really changed for Bitcoin
except for the price. At 60,000, the
fundamentals were just as strong as they
are at 80,000. But we know that people
love to buy it. Now, my question for you
as the audience to others there's of
people on the sidelines that been
waiting for Bitcoin to go down to 45 or
50,000. I was recently on the When Shift
Happens podcast
and I said that there's no more
dangerous sentiment in markets than I'm
going to sell to buy back lower. And a
lot of people have been waiting to buy
back lower. I'm curious if they're going
to buy here at you know, 75, 80, 85 or
if they're still waiting for Bitcoin to
head down to 45 or 50,000 to put in
those bids. So, you know, the bears were
waiting here for a FTX event to send
price lower and instead they got
liquidated. Now, we have some bullish
news on the regulatory side. US CFTC
chief put staff on notice to create
crypto regulations if Clarity Act fails.
CFTC Commissioner Mike Seelig told the
inaugural gathering of the Innovation
Advisory Committee that his agency won't
sit idle. This is the same series of
meetings and people that we've been
reporting on from the White House all
week, but it's been a very very
interesting week because clearly we're
in the summer doldrums here waiting for
Congress to come back and potentially
act on clarity.
But we know that clarity is very
unlikely to happen. Right? I think last
I checked prediction markets had it at
roughly 10%. Even the most bullish
analysts who had it at 70% before like
Galaxy down to 5-10%. I've told you for
me, since December, it's been 5% or less
that it would pass. So, it seems like
the regulators are operating on the
assumption that it won't pass. We know
that they've wanted to pass pro-crypto
regulation and start to write rules, but
I think that they were waiting on the
sidelines to see what happened with
clarity because why waste their time and
effort preempting something that could
be a law and make their lives much
easier. Now, with the assumption that
it's not going to go into law
and having meetings here with the
Innovation Advisory Committee, we can
see they're moving forward. So, what
happened? Earlier this week, the SEC
under one Paul Atkins
went ahead and made regulation crypto.
We talked about that, right? It sets
rules for fundraising, for safe harbor
so that you can become sufficiently
decentralized and not be named a
security. Well, here Mike Seelig, who is
a CFTC Commissioner of one, is saying
the CFTC is going to do the same thing.
He said, "The staff will explore a new
regulated crypto asset market category."
He wants rules allowing developers to
legally launch and operate protocols in
America. Be huge for bringing innovation
back to the United States, just like
Cboe, uh just like Acton's new proposal
at the SEC. But he went on to say this
cannot fully replace clarity, much like
we saw Acton saying that we still do
need laws on the books so that if we get
a new regulator, these rules cannot be
replaced. But yeah, he as he said,
"Agency rules are also easier to
challenge in court or reverse under a
future administration." So,
this is what's happening. The regulators
are moving forward. They don't think
that clarity is going to happen and they
are going to make rules, which then puts
the onus on the crypto industry, in my
mind, to become too big to fail over the
next 2 and 1/2 years before we likely
get regime change. You may not get
regime change. But if we come to a
presidential election next time and the
crypto industry is still, you know,
fumbling about,
we're going to have big problems and we
could see a reversal. We need the laws
to obviously cement what they're doing,
but getting favorable regulation and
building to the point where nobody can
stop us, that is the move that we are
looking for and there are people
that are trying to stop us.
CME CME CEO Terrence Duffy trades barbs
with CFTC Cboe and Calshi COO over
prediction market oversight. So now
you'll remember that the CME freaked out
when Calshi had perpetual swaps
approved. We talked about that story.
They said that they
you know, that's gambling and perpetual
futures should not be regulated by the
CFTC and that they're not really
derivatives contracts, blah blah blah.
Now they're having the same kind of
comments over prediction markets. So he
said the prediction markets, this is the
CME CEO Terrence Duffy, accused
prediction markets of tolerating
manipulation and insider trading. Cboe
came back and said, "These are fake news
because the contracts are offshore." I
mean, nothing says regulator regulatory
clarity like the regulator calling the
world's largest futures exchange fake
news.
It is very very mature. Uh the United
States government here. Right? But there
is still we have the turf war between
the federal government and the states
over prediction markets that we've long
reported on. Now, you also have it
between the incumbents who probably want
to slow these industries like crypto and
prediction markets down so that they can
get their piece of it, which they're all
trying to do. So, we have the incumbents
actually battling the regulators as well
over whose turf this is and what kind of
products can be, uh, released. Now,
listen, there's definitely some insider
trading in prediction markets. Right?
But that doesn't mean the prediction
markets should not exist or that
anything actually stops this train. But
it's a really interesting time that
we're in right now, uh, with the
regulatory regime, the incumbents, the
states. A lot of confusion as to who is
going to regulate what and a lot of that
comes from an overbearing regulatory
regime that we had before under one
President Joseph Biden. Now, going back
to crypto volumes, we have a update to a
story that I told you, I don't know, all
of like yesterday or the day before
here. Yeah, remember I told you that the
South Koreans weren't trading anymore,
crypto volumes were down massively,
they'd gone to SK Hynix and and Samsung
and were using leverage leverage ETFs.
Well, in the words of Poltergeist,
they're back. Up it trading volume
spikes 273% in a day. Calm down. As
South Korean investors re-enter crypto.
So, up its daily volume volume surged
273% to 1.84 billion. Busiest day since
March. Bithumb hum hum thumb thumb
Bithumb. Volume jumped 133%.
Now, interestingly, XRP was the most
actively traded asset on both exchanges.
We've seen this in South Korea many,
many times. These guys love to speculate
and they go love to go a little further
down the risk curve than Bitcoin to do
it. Last I checked, you know, I I think
XRP had been trading under a buck. It
was pushing $1.40 at at one point today.
So, massive move there and
you know, uh when the South Koreans get
on something, you're going to see more
volatility and more up and downside on
an asset that they choose uh in the
short term. But, we talked about all the
rotation.
Koreans spend you know, spent the whole
bear market chasing Samsung and SK Hynix
and leverage. Well, this is the first
hint that the rotation is coming back.
And this is something that we've been
talking about over and over and over
again on this show, other shows, with
every single guest.
There's a hot ball of money for
speculation, right? And for years that
was in crypto, specifically in Bitcoin
and altcoins. Then, with the
with the proliferation of derivatives
and perpetual swaps on hyper liquid on
other assets, that hot ball of money was
able to move. So, you went crypto to
gold and silver to oil to pre-IPO SpaceX
and then all over the place. Now, you
can gamble on anything. You didn't need
to gamble on Bitcoin and altcoins, so
they became a bit out of vogue. But, we
keep saying there will be a time when
that hot ball of money returns to
crypto. I think that hot ball of money
is now returning to crypto and this is
the first indication that that might be
true. We're seeing it in the ETFs, we're
seeing it in the exchange volumes in the
United States, and we see it even
compounded with exchange volume in South
Korea. Now, also from our friends in
Asia, Nomura Backed Laser Digital wins
Japan's first crypto approval in 4
years. Now, it's not such a big deal,
the approval that they got. I mean,
they're going to provide liquidity to
domestic crypto firms. This is sort of
on the institutional side and not an
indication of retail volume coming back,
but interestingly,
Japan has been on the sidelines and has
done some very, very favorable
legislating and regulating of late, and
now we're seeing it actually come into
place. I mean, we have Asian retail and
institutional infrastructure reawakening
at exactly the same time. I mean, you
know, Japan spent 4 years here checking
Nomura's paperwork, and someone finally
found the correct fax machine, I guess.
Um because the the you know Yeah,
regulators, governments, they're slow.
That's that's what that joke was.
That's what that joke was. So, in uh
less uh favorable and exciting news,
I've been reporting obviously on the
crisis in self-custody.
Coldcard ships firmware after 114
million Bitcoin theft, says AI helped
catch more bugs, but the real story here
is that they came out and said, "We
still haven't really fixed this."
It's been weeks.
Uh ongoing exploit for Coldcard. Most
people have probably done what they need
to solve this, but still a problem here
in self-custody, especially when you
compound SafePal and Trezor and Bits of
Gold releasing
uh hundreds of thousands in hacked
information on people who bought these
self-custody solutions. But, this is
what they said, right? They released new
Coldcard firmware, but they said simply
installing the update does not make an
effective wallet safe. So, anyone who
generated a seed on a vulnerable
firmware between 2021 and 2026 must
create a new seed and move the Bitcoin.
A new seed generation requires 65
unpredictable button presses, 50 dice
rolls, or 128 coin flips. Who is still
doing this?
Get your money off of a Coldcard and to
literally anywhere else.
This is absolutely insane. And I mean,
to just to kind of compound on that,
I've got a story here. AI adoption in
crypto crime rose 40% over the past
year. We know that all of this is going
to become exponentially worse in a world
of AI. It is time to just pick the best
projects, the best security, and hold
and be extremely vigilant, because we
have our favorite segment right now that
aligns very well with that. It's how not
to invest. Hit it.
>> How not to invest. [music]
>> How not to invest.
>> How not to invest. Mantra blockchain
halts after exploit. These guys had
problems just a few months ago. This is
one of the hotter projects just a few
years ago. But here's the story. Mantra
token plunges 18% to record lows as
blockchain halts after exploit. Token
token touched 0.004126
minutes after the network stopped
producing blocks. Well, Mantra later
said an attacker exploited a
vulnerability in software used by the
chain.
Once again,
I don't even need to talk so deeply
about the Mantra token specifically or
their chain. This is just a reminder
that with AI and Lazarus Group and all
of the other ways for hackers and
exploiters to take your money, you do
not need to be invested or using chains
that do not have the vigilant security
budgets or team working behind them
because they will get hacked. Harmony,
Raven coin, Mantra. We have this endless
list of exploits seemingly every single
day that are losing people who have not
been vigilant, who are just sitting on
the sidelines holding assets from
previous cycles waiting for them to go
down fastly. Guys, the Bitcoin bull
market may be back. If you're looking at
chart, 82,800
is the line where the market would make
a higher high and kill the bear market
structure. I'll have my eyes on that all
weekend and I'll be back to discuss it
with you on Monday.
Peace.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This episode of the Daily Wolf explores the current surge in the Bitcoin market, with prices approaching 80,000 dollars, driven by institutional ETF inflows and real market conviction. The host highlights the liquidation of record amounts of short positions and discusses how market sentiment seems to be shifting toward a new bull market cycle. Additionally, the episode covers regulatory developments at the CFTC and SEC, the return of trading volumes in South Korea, and critical security warnings regarding self-custody wallets like Coldcard and the risks of investing in less secure blockchain projects.
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