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>> All right, we have do have a lot to talk

about with Dan Ives. There is a lot to

talk. Cerebra Systems just reporting uh

falling 8% second quarter revenue

disappoints. Core Weave surging after

the AI spending frenzy spurred faster

sales growth than anticipated with sales

expected to be 3.45 billion to 3.6

billion in the third quarter. We've got

with us

for the next half hour or so Dan Ives.

He's partner and senior managing

director at Yorkville Ives. It's the

first time I've read that title for you,

Dan, because, you know, for for so long

we knew you at at Wedbush and we knew

you as this what many people called a

tech permabull. I want to get to uh your

outlook on not just this earning season

and and and what to expect from Nvidia

and the so-called circular financing.

But before we do that, because we

haven't had a chance to sit down with

you since since this job changed, I I

want to just hear from you

why you left Wedbush and what you're

doing now at Yorkville Ives.

>> Yeah, I mean, for me, you know, again,

it was a great, you know, eight years at

Wedbush, but it was to create what I

view as like a modern merchant bank. You

know, really something where when I

think about this fourth industrial

revolution and for my, you know, called

going in Wall Street since late '90s, it

was seen around corners and seen the

opportunity. And I just felt like for me

it was an evolution in my career for

something that to build a bank and

especially have great research that's

focused on tech, energy, you know, and

and really across industries and I found

great partners in Yorkville.

And it to me it was the right place,

right time to do something like this

given my view of the AI revolution.

>> Well, I want to get to more on more on

that and we're going to get to the AI

revolution. But we spoke to you uh at

Future Proof where where you'll be there

again this year since September of last

year. And I remember the conversation

because it was it was not just about

what you were doing at Wedbush, but it

was about the ETF that you had launched.

You were also chairman at the time of of

Worldcoin, this this crypto project.

>> Or or AQR. Yeah.

>> Oh yeah, AQR, thank you. Which is part

of which was

>> Yeah, which was related to Worldcoin.

>> Okay, related to Worldcoin. So,

what is like what is the status of those

projects now?

>> Yeah, so that So, in terms of like I I

left AQR

>> Yeah. But what about the ETF?

>> Yeah, and that like you know, not

there's been no change in terms of that.

Um and that's something where for me

look, it was sort of like simplifying,

you know, I think some of my, you know,

other activities and really to me it was

really like doubling down to some extent

>> Yeah.

>> on what people know me as in terms of in

when it comes to tech when it comes to,

you know, great research and I think,

you know, I think around the world so

many more investors have such a focus in

tech and it's something where to try to

be some guiding light, you know,

relative to a lot of the confusion that

you see in the market.

>> What can you do now that you want that

you couldn't do before?

>> I mean, there's you know, we're well

we're still awaiting our our research

license, but for now this is like when

it's all sort of built it will be

something that it will be exactly the

same than I've's research and, you know,

what we've done for investors over the

decades and and and that's really why we

built it, but also it's for me it's

finding the right people that want to do

things in when it comes to innovation,

when it comes to building, whether it's

on the research side or, you know,

across the industry and I just think

right now like we're going through an

innovation boom and in my career it's

really been a evolution. For me it was a

natural next step

>> Yeah.

>> and I've been super excited about the

feedback that we've gotten and just, you

know, from you know, from you know, many

around the world.

>> We have seen a lot of innovation cycles

and you have been along for that ride

and I'm just curious how you continue to

put this particular cycle in its place

and in its spot. And how much do we

really know about the ultimate impact?

>> I mean, as someone like myself that's

spent so much time in Asia,

>> Yeah.

>> so much time talking to CEOs, CIOs,

that's done this since the late '90s,

this is a true fourth industrial

revolution. And you know, we've

we've talked about it with you guys

for many years. And that's why I think

what a lot of times like the the

skeptics or the bears, you know, they

they're bearish from their 15th floor of

their New York City office building or

wherever it may be, but they're not in

fabs in Taiwan. They're not seeing the

demand. And the reality is like for the

first time in 30 years, the US is ahead

of China when it comes to tech. And I

think that's extremely important

relative to where we are. And I think

what you've seen with earnings, whether

it's on the neo clouds, the

hyperscalers, the it's just it is

crystal clear that the monetization

thesis is now starting to take over.

>> But do we have to be worried about

China? Because they certainly have the

government now saying, "Okay, they're

they are prioritizing this." And with

money, with efforts, with you know how

it works. We've seen it with cars, we've

seen it with we've seen it in so many

different industries. And they want to

make sure they have a place at the table

with this.

So, where how do you how far are they

along? What do we really know about

their expertise?

>> Yeah, so I think as someone like myself

that's spent so much time in the region,

it's one of counting them out as the

wrong bet. Because the reality is is

that not just from a government

perspective when it comes to energy, you

know, just how ahead they've been when

it comes to nuclear energy, when it

comes to robotics,

and it's one where I think part of why

Jensen is so focused on selling into

China and I think why the chip companies

because if you do not sell into China,

it just makes them that much more

powerful. It narrows the gap. And also

when it comes to like the political,

whether it's grandstanding, whatever you

want to call in terms of like what's

happened here in the data centers and

data centers are the hearts and lungs of

the AI revolution. So, if you have like

moratoriums and you shut down data

centers, the winner in that becomes

China relative to what could happen here

in the US. So, I actually think like the

biggest sort of risk when you think

about what could happen to AI

revolution, it's not CapEx, it's not use

cases, the biggest risk is just the

political piece gets in the way in terms

of the data center build-outs because I

think that's something where any every

data center that gets voted down

>> Yeah.

>> China smiles.

>> I think we have time for this question.

It's a really good one. It's from

Brendan in in Maryland.

>> yeah.

>> He he has a question for you. He says,

"You've likened the AI revolution to

building out the Vegas Strip in the

'50s. Can you elaborate on this analogy?

What role is Microsoft playing here? Are

the hyperscalers like the big casinos?

And famously, does the house always

win?"

>> Great a great great great question.

Look, and the reason I talk about like

Vegas 1955

because

if someone told you in 1955 what

eventually the sphere was going to be

and what Vegas is, but then all of a

sudden 1956

there was an issue with the building.

You're like, "Ah, that's it. The strip

thing's not going to happen. It's not

going to work." It just that's big tech

companies, like that's their view,

right? Like go like 2 months ago, right?

Like New York City cab drivers bearish

on Microsoft and that now like today,

right? There's ticker tape parades for

it. It just speaks like cuz you have

like Nadella is a north star and he's

able to see around corners and

understand that on the Vegas Strip

there's only one strip.

If you don't have a place on that strip,

are you staying at that hotel 2 miles

from Vegas? Eventually, you're in Santa

Fe or whatever. I mean, the The is I'm

just trying to explain like these

companies know there's one strip and

that's why when someone says, "Well,

what about CapEx? If if let's say metal

like stocks down, does that mean that

they start to you know

they like slow down their build?" Cuz

they know that if they slow it down,

they won't have a place in the strip.

And then, what happens when you look out

a few years from now and you're 3 mi off

the strip?

>> I want to get to the second part of

Brendan's question for me.

>> question on two parts.

>> Bloomberg.com/askradio.

That's how Brendan was able to ask the

question. Bloomberg.com/askradio.

>> This is for uh terminal subscribers,

Bloomberg terminal subscribers, and

those who also are subscribers to

Bloomberg.com. So, he went on Dan to say

even more some question whether this AI

boom is due to chip sellers logging

revenues faster than reporting their

expenses. Can you speak to that?

>> Yeah. So, I view it as right now demand

and supply for chips

>> Yeah.

>> 13 14 to 1

demand supply.

Yeah, the one thing is that look, I view

the whole thing as kind of like a Jenga

puzzle. Having one to think about it,

you put it together.

>> Right.

>> Whether it's Cisco, Neo Cloud,

hyperscalers, what's happened Palantir

on the

the reality is is that they hold the

cards, the chip players, because you

don't have many of them

and you're not going to create new ones.

And that's look, that's similar what

you've seen Korea in the cost with the

memory players. And I just think it's

one where when someone try to kind of

poke holes in some of these store the

reality is and it's always been our view

that like investors are way

underestimating

the scale and scope of the AI

revolution.

>> But wouldn't you say and certainly

we've heard this around this table of

the semiconductor makers who are very

sensitive to the cycles of the booms and

busts that they are going to be very

careful also in controlling supply in

the market. So, yes, they're going to

invest and they're going to ramp up, but

they're not going to do it so much that

all of a sudden the price drops. So, so

there's got to be a I don't know what

the the factor is that in that excess

demand 13, 14 times, whatever you said

for chips, how much of that though is

the semiconductor companies being very

smart and kind of managing the situation

and and keeping those margins

healthy?

>> I think at one point you'll hit that,

but for now

>> No.

>> The equilibrium you won't hit till

probably 2028,

maybe early 2029. Everybody keeps

talking about 2030. I'm like, [laughter]

I'm going to have a tattoo to my

forehead cuz it just feels like I won't

do that. And and that's why the reality

is we've always AI revolution. Like

look, we thought it was third inning and

now you could argue it's a bottom of the

second.

>> When you go to China,

when you travel, like I want to ask you

about China. Like what do you actually

get to see

in terms of what's going on there?

Because I just feel like they're so

I don't think it's so easy, but I I'm

curious because when somebody does get a

peek into some of what's going on China,

I think it really surprises everybody.

>> It's the innovation. It's the it's

really what they're doing on robotics,

on what they're doing in chips, on what

they're doing on when you have physical

AI. To me, that is the thing that stands

out the most because I think the name of

the game in AI today, you could argue

like some of this stuff is almost table

stakes relative to when you think good

of physical AI and when you go to what

sort of the next phases here. And that's

[snorts] why right now like robotics,

autonomous, true physical AI, I I've

always viewed physical AI as sort of the

golden goose

of

>> So, agentic AI and agents, that that's

not the gold.

>> I view that as a highway to get on to

Altman, which going to be the probably

the biggest monetization piece. And I

think that's why like a lot of times, I

think investors, whether it's like China

in terms of open source and different

models that come and we go through these

sort of like mini scours, deep seek type

movements.

The value is in the data. That's why

sovereign data, you know, when you look

at a carbon pounder, they talk about so

much Jensen started to talk about a lot,

but it's an arms race that's playing out

across the board, which speaks to this

huge like circuit financing and just,

you know,

we go through these sort of abs and

flows and the worries there.

>> Well, speaking of worries, some folks

out there are worried about

concentration risk. We spoke to Ed

Zitron a few weeks ago from Easy Primary

Research. He was on our program. Here's

what he said about concentration risk.

>> So, in calendar year 2025, according to

my own reporting about Open AI's

numbers, 69% of the year-over-year

growth of Microsoft's intelligent cloud

segment was actually from Open AI.

Without that, it would have only grown

8% year-over-year, which is barely

beating inflation. And so, everyone is

being sold what I consider kind of a

lie. It's honestly kind of a scandal.

>> That was Ed Zitron of Easy Primary

Research. After he was on, just a few

days later, our Bloomberg News team

reported that Microsoft generates most

of its AI revenue from Open AI. It said

that

what about 70% of sales

in a year came from just a couple of

different companies.

Excuse me. Microsoft's business, 70% of

its actual AI sales came from Open AI

during its most recent fiscal year. Is

there concentration risk?

>> But that would be like the Chiefs.

The if they lost Mahomes, they're done.

The the point is like the reality is

like Open AI and Anthropic, their core

central foundations, they are No one

will doubt that, but the reality is is

that when you continue to see the

funding there and what's happening is

that

the tech companies, whether it's the

hyperscalers and others, yeah, they have

so much invested in them, but that's

just the first phase. That number 2

years from now, 3 years from now, the

concentration risk is not going

>> Meaning there will be many companies

that are paying

>> Of course, because now we're

>> for these services.

>> Exactly, because today it's a small

group of companies that are paying, but

when you think about what's happening

with sovereign AI and today really being

much more US-based and China-based,

what's happening in the Middle East and

India and just across the world, we're

still in the early parts of it, but

that's why OpenAI and Anthropic, when

you think about like as they go public

and there's opportunity, that just

further solidifies

the foundation for the AI revolution.

>> I'm going to play devil's advocate to

you because I think what someone had

said too is that, okay, so most of the

revenue comes from the AI revenue for

Microsoft comes from OpenAI, but help me

out here. Um I'm giving you a gift cuz

I'm usually tougher. I like to

>> I like that.

>> battle with you. No, but the idea is

OpenAI has a ton of customers, and so

that's where the diversification is, but

it comes through that conduit. So I

guess essentially if Microsoft and

OpenAI go to battle, that could be a

problem. But is that kind of Is that the

right reasoning? Sorry, Tim.

>> No, that's fine.

>> No, because but to that point is that

the concentration risk, it's not just

viewed as like it's OpenAI OpenAI,

you're talking about thousands of

customers. Anthropic, same thing with

they're doing the enterprise. It used to

be like what I view like I would say

with Microsoft be like concentration

risk, but Microsoft is the core part of

the enterprises around the world. So

Microsoft represents so many enterprises

that are ultimately going So I just I

view I understand like and that's been

that that's been a concern, but 18

months ago it was a concern.

Look where we are today. And that's why

I think those that bet against us, it's

it's betting against a CAPEX cycle that

actually continues to accelerate.

>> You know, there it feels like there was

this there was this moment in in New

York in like the mid-2010s

>> Yeah.

>> where all these venture capital backed

companies were flush with cash and Uber

and Lyft were duking it out giving you

incentives to like take this car, take

this car. And and you could as a

consumer and there was a service that

came and picked up a package at my home

and shipped it off and it was free. They

went out of business. But the point is

is that venture capitalists were

subsidizing this sort of on-demand

lifestyle. It kind of feels like

sometimes we're there with these LLMs.

>> Where's the chips and yeah

>> Like it's free to use Claude, you know,

then 20 minutes later you're like, okay,

well, I can't use Claude anymore. I'll

just go use ChatGPT. Okay, you use up

everything with ChatGPT. Oh, I'll go

just you know, go to Google and use the

AI that Google offers. Like it kind of

feels like we're in that moment again

where these are interchangeable. At

least the LLMs.

>> But I've never viewed it the models

are the models is not going to be where

the value That's why Anthropic and

OpenAI, they're already see they're

seeing around the corner. They're

focused on enterprise build on

enterprise sales force. Ultimately

really budding heads with you know, core

enterprise players.

It's going to be in the data.

I mean, if you just look where it's all

heading,

it is just going to be a conduit. The

cuz eventually models, you're going to

have hundreds of models. You'll have

models regional, vertical. It'll get

more and more commoditized.

>> industry specific, construction models,

retail, consumer Like the point is like

and that's also where like if you think

like where Apple's starting to go in the

consumer side in terms of like they'll

finally be you know, a sort of player.

But I just think it's one where

where AI is today and where it's going

to be three, four years from now. I

think for for many investors, look, you

get one or two investors. You have to be

If you're a technologist

and maybe and and someone that tries to

see around corners,

you're going to view it as like this is

the true fourth industrial revolution.

If you're one of the bears that have

called 10 of the last two downturns,

then you'll you'll say this is another

one and they'll be in hibernation mode

and they can't see AI in spreadsheets.

>> you're a smart man.

What's the risk? We have about a minute

or so left. There's a risk to

everything.

>> The biggest risk The biggest risk is

government is government.

>> It's oversight regulation

>> like When you look at what's happening

in New York State, local moratorium

>> about data centers?

>> Data center. That's the biggest midterm

elections, the political

>> just New York. There are a lot of local

governments

>> the country and I spent so much time in

DC and the point is like a lot of

politicians that are still using

Blackberries, do you want them

ultimately determining AI? And I think

that's the scary thing, right? Like it's

one where what stifles innovation. Now,

you need regulatory, no doubt. And PR

problem, a lot of that has been caused

by the tech industry in terms of saying

wiping out jobs, 18 months, scare

tactics, things like that. So, they've

definitely contributed. But I think that

is the biggest risk when you think about

AI revolution relative to the political

piece.

>> Do you think AI though? I mean

It's going to wipe out tons of job

People talk about univer- universal

basic income. I've talked to developers.

We've talked to developers about

thinking about building houses for

people who are on like because of AI.

Forgive me, only about 40 seconds.

>> But I would just take the other side and

so someone like myself who have 3 and

1/2 million air miles and been around

this country so many times, the amount

of towns and cities that used to have

75,000 people and now it's 10,000.

Factories that went away to China,

and I view it as for the first time in

30 years, the US is ahead of China when

it comes to technology because of the

innovation boom and to what I view as

really a renaissance. I view that as to

add jobs in the United States despite

maybe some of the, you know, more

negative views today.

>> All right, so go get that research

license and come back.

>> I will.

>> [laughter]

>> And I can't wait.

>> I know, we can't wait either.

>> wait to have you.

>> Dan Ives, partner and senior managing

director at Yorkville Ives, joining us

here in studio. Good to have you, pal.