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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant

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JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant

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3040 segments

0:00

great job nabal you rocked it maybe I

0:02

should have said this on air but that

0:03

was literally the most fun podcast I've

0:05

ever recorded oh that's on air cut that

0:07

in yeah put it in the show put it in the

0:09

show I had my theory on why you were

0:11

number one but now I have the

0:12

realization what's the actual reason you

0:14

know us for a long time yeah what was

0:15

your theory what's a reality my theory

0:17

was that my problem with going on

0:19

podcast is usually the person I'm

0:20

talking to is not that interesting

0:22

they're just asking the same questions

0:24

and they're dialing it in and they're

0:25

not that interested it's not like we're

0:26

having a peer level actual conversation

0:28

so that's why I wanted to do air chat

0:29

and Clubhouse and things like that cuz

0:31

you can actually have a conversation I

0:33

see right and what you guys have very

0:35

uniquely is four people you know of whom

0:39

at least three are intelligent I'm

0:42

kidding how could you say that isn't

0:45

here what SX isn't even hearing you say

0:48

that that is so cold best right these

0:52

three are intelligent and all of you get

0:54

along and you can have an ongoing

0:56

conversation that's a very high hit rate

0:58

normally in a podcast you only get one

1:00

interesting person and now you've got

1:02

three maybe four right okay so that to

1:05

me was why Su and by you're talking to

1:08

is number four we don't know she remain

1:10

mysterious forever of the four right the

1:13

problem is like if you get people

1:14

together to talk two is a good

1:16

conversation three possibly four is the

1:18

max that's why in a dinner table at a

1:20

restaurant four top right you don't do

1:22

five or six because then exp splits into

1:24

multiple conversations so you had four

1:26

people who were capable of talking right

1:29

that I thought thought was a secret but

1:30

there's another secret the the other

1:32

secret is you guys are having fun you're

1:34

talking over each other you're making

1:36

fun of each other you're actually having

1:38

fun so that's why I'm saying this is the

1:40

most fun podcast I've ever been on and

1:42

that's that's why you'll be welcome back

1:44

anytime no all welcome back yes

1:48

absolutely in three smart

1:50

[Music]

1:52

guys I can't even believe you'd say that

1:54

about sax he's not even here to defend

1:57

himself sorry David

2:00

let your winners

2:01

[Music]

2:06

ride we open sources to the fans and

2:09

they've just gone crazy with

2:11

[Music]

2:14

it all right everybody welcome back to

2:17

the number one podcast in the world

2:20

we're really excited today back again

2:24

your sultant of science David

2:26

freeberg what do you got going on there

2:28

freeberg what's in the background

2:31

want I used to play I used to play a lot

2:33

of a game called Sim Earth on my

2:35

Macintosh LC way back in the day that

2:38

tracks yeah that tracks and of course

2:42

with us again your chairman what games

2:44

did you play growing up J actually I'm

2:46

kind of curious did you ever play video

2:47

games let's say Andrea Allison uh Susan

2:52

I mean it was like a lot of cute girls I

2:55

was out dating girls freeberg yeah I was

2:59

not on my Apple tun playing civilization

3:02

let me find one of those pictures of who

3:04

whoa don't get me in trouble Man the 80s

3:06

were ' 80s were good to me in Brooklyn

3:08

rejection the video

3:10

game yes you have three lives rejected

3:13

rejected it's a numbers game chamal as

3:16

you know as you well know it is a

3:18

numberous game yeah Nick go ahead pull

3:20

up uh pull up Rico Suave here oh no what

3:23

is this one instead of playing video

3:24

here I am no the80s that's fat that's

3:28

fat J you want get

3:30

Nick help out help out your unle yeah

3:32

here he is out slaying help out your

3:34

uncle with the VIN Jak C you know what

3:37

he was sling in there snack yeah you

3:40

pric and post asmic right correct and

3:43

weightlifting beef

3:46

jerky go find my Leonardo decaprio

3:48

picture please and replace my fat jow

3:51

picture with that thank you oh God I was

3:54

fat man plus 40 lbs is a lot heavier

3:57

than I it's no joke it's no joke 40b a

4:00

lot I there's so many great emo photos

4:03

of me I'm proud of you thank you my man

4:05

thank you my man if you want a good can

4:08

you get through the intros please so we

4:09

can start come on quick how you doing

4:11

brother how you doing chairman

4:14

dictator you

4:16

good all right all right we're really

4:19

excited today today for the first time

4:22

on the Allin podcast the Iron Fist of

4:26

Angel list the zenik mage of the early

4:29

stage he has such a way with words he's

4:32

the socer te of nerds please welcome my

4:36

guy Namaste Nal how you doing the intros

4:38

are back that is the best intro I've

4:41

ever gotten I didn't think I don't I

4:42

didn't think you could do that that was

4:44

amazing that's your super power right

4:46

there lock it in quit Venture Capital

4:47

just do that absolutely that's actually

4:50

you know what interestingly number one

4:51

podcast in the world like someone said I

4:54

mean that's what I'm manifesting it's

4:56

getting close we've been in the top 10

4:58

so I mean the weekends are good for all

5:00

in this this one will hit number one

5:02

this one will go vir I think it could if

5:03

you have some really great piffy

5:06

insights we might go right to the top I

5:09

just got to do a seile and it'll go

5:10

viral oh no oh no are you gonna send us

5:14

your heart my heart goes out to you my

5:17

heart I I end here at the heart I don't

5:20

send it out I keep it right here I put

5:23

both hands on the heart and I hold it

5:25

nice and stady I hold it in it's sending

5:28

out to you but just not explicitly all

5:31

right for those of you who don't know

5:33

Naval was an entrepreneur uh he kicked a

5:35

bit of ass he got his ass kicked and

5:37

then he started Venture

5:40

hacks and he started emailing folks and

5:43

saying you know 20 15 20 years ago maybe

5:46

15 here are some deals in Silicon Valley

5:49

he went around he started writing 50k

5:50

100K checks he hit a bunch of home runs

5:53

and he turned Venture hacks into Angel

5:56

list and then he has invested in a ton

5:59

of great startups uh maybe give us some

6:01

of the greatest hits there

6:02

Dev yeah Twitter Uber notion bunch of

6:06

others um Postmates you to me lot of

6:09

unicorns buch up coming I it's actually

6:12

a lot of deals at this point but

6:14

honestly I'm not necessarily proud of

6:16

being an investor investor to me is a

6:17

side job it's a hobby so I do startups

6:21

how how do you define

6:23

yourself I don't I mean I guess these

6:26

days I would say more like building

6:27

things you know every

6:29

every so-called career is an evolution

6:31

right and all of you guys are

6:33

independent and you kind of do what

6:34

you're most interested in right that's

6:36

the point of making money so you can

6:38

just do what you want so these days I'm

6:40

really into building and crafting

6:42

products so I built one recently called

6:44

airchat it kind of didn't work I'm still

6:47

proud of what I built and got to work

6:49

with an incredible team and now I'm

6:51

building a new product and this time I'm

6:52

going into Hardware oh and I'm just

6:54

building something that I really want I

6:57

I'm not it all yourself Nal

7:00

partially I bring investors along last

7:02

time they got their money back previous

7:04

times they've made money next time

7:05

hopefully they'll make a lot of money

7:07

it's good to bring your friends along

7:09

I'll be honest I love that you said I

7:11

love the product but it didn't work not

7:13

enough people say that yeah I know I I

7:15

built a product that I loved that I was

7:17

proud of but it didn't catch fire and it

7:19

was a social product so it had to catch

7:21

fire for it to work so I found the team

7:23

great homes they all got paid the

7:24

investors that I brought in got their

7:25

money back and I learned a ton which I'm

7:29

leveraging into the new thing but the

7:31

new thing is much harder the new thing

7:32

is hardware and software and what did

7:34

you what did you learn building in 2024

7:37

and 20125 that you didn't know maybe

7:39

before then the main thing was actually

7:42

just the craft the craft of pixel by

7:44

pixel designing a software product and

7:46

launching it I guess the main thing I

7:50

took away that was a learning was that I

7:53

really enjoyed building products and

7:55

that I wanted to build something even

7:57

harder and something even more real and

8:00

I think like a lot of us I'm inspired by

8:02

Elon and you know all the incredible

8:04

work he's done so I don't want to build

8:05

things that are easy I want to build

8:07

things that are hard and interesting and

8:09

I want to take on more technical risk

8:11

and less Market risk this is the classic

8:13

VC learning right which is you want to

8:15

build something that if people get it if

8:18

you can deliver it you know people will

8:20

want it and it's just hard to build as

8:22

opposed to you build it and you don't

8:24

know if they want it so that's a

8:26

learning air chat was a lot of fun for

8:28

those of you who don't know it was kind

8:29

of like a social media Network where you

8:32

could ask a question and then people

8:34

could respond and it was like an

8:36

audio-based Twitter would you say that

8:38

was the the best way to describe it

8:40

audio Twitter asynchronous AI

8:43

transcripts and all kinds of AI to make

8:45

it easier for you

8:47

translation really good way for kind of

8:50

try to make podcasting type

8:52

conversations more accessible to

8:53

everybody cuz honestly one of the

8:55

reasons I don't go on podcast I don't

8:56

like being intermediated so to speak

8:59

right where you sit there and someone

9:00

interviews you and then you go back and

9:01

forth and you go through the same old

9:02

things I just want to talk to people I

9:04

want peer relationships kind of like you

9:06

guys have running here nval what

9:08

happened when you went through that

9:09

phase there was a period where it just

9:12

seemed like something had gone on in

9:14

your life and you just knew the answers

9:16

you were just so grounded it's not to

9:19

say that you're not grounded now but

9:20

you're you're less active posting and

9:22

writing but there was this period where

9:24

I think all of us were like right what

9:26

does nval think oh really oh okay that's

9:29

USS to be I would say it would be like

9:31

the late teens the early 20s Jason you

9:34

can correct me if I'm getting the dates

9:35

wrong but it's been that moment where

9:36

like these Naval isms and this sort of

9:38

philosophy really started to I think

9:40

people had a tremendous respect for how

9:43

you were thinking about things I I'm

9:44

just curious like what were you going

9:46

through something in that moment or like

9:48

oh yeah yeah yeah yeah that's right no

9:50

very insightful yeah 20 so i' I've been

9:52

on Twitter since 2007 cuz I was an early

9:55

investor but I never really tweeted I

9:57

didn't get featured I had no audience I

9:58

was just doing the usual techie guy

10:00

thing talking to each other and then I

10:03

started Angelus in 2010 the original

10:05

thing about matching investors to

10:07

startups didn't scale it was just an

10:09

email list that exploded at early on but

10:11

then just didn't scale so we didn't have

10:13

a

10:14

business and I was trying to figure out

10:16

the business and at the same time I got

10:18

a letter from the Securities and

10:19

Exchange Commission saying oh you're

10:21

acting as an unlic broker dealer and I'm

10:22

like what I'm not making any money I'm

10:24

not I'm just making intros I'm not

10:25

taking anything it's just a public

10:26

service but even then they were coming

10:28

after me so I wasn't and I'd raised a

10:31

bunch of money from investors so I was

10:32

in a very high stress period of my life

10:34

now looking back it's almost comical

10:36

that I was stressed over but at the time

10:38

it all felt very real the weight of

10:40

everything was on my shoulders

10:41

expectations people money regulators and

10:45

I eventually went to DC and got the law

10:47

change to legalize what we do which

10:49

ironically enabled a whole bunch of

10:50

other things like icos and incubator

10:52

days and so on demo days but in that

10:55

process I was in a very high stress

10:57

period of my life and I just started

10:58

tweeting whatever I was going through

11:00

whatever realizations I was happening

11:02

it's only in stress that you sort of are

11:04

forced to grow and so whatever internal

11:06

growth I was going through I just

11:07

started tweeting it not thinking much of

11:10

it and it was a mix of there are three

11:12

things that I kind of always kind of are

11:14

running through one is I love science

11:17

you know I'm an amateur love physics

11:20

let's just leave it at that I love

11:22

reading a lot of philosophy and thinking

11:25

deeply about it and I like making money

11:28

right truth Love and Money that's my

11:29

joke on my Twitter bio those are the

11:32

three things that I keep coming back to

11:34

and so I just started tweeting about all

11:35

of them and I

11:37

think before that the expectation was

11:40

that someone like me should just be

11:41

talking about money stay in your lane

11:43

and people had been playing it very safe

11:46

and so I think the combination of the

11:47

three sort of caught people's attentions

11:49

because every person thinks about

11:52

everything we don't just stay in our

11:53

Lane in real life we're dealing with our

11:55

relationships we're dealing with our

11:57

relationship with the universe we're

11:59

dealing with what we know to be true and

12:01

you know with science and how we make

12:03

decisions and how we figure things out

12:05

and we're also dealing with a practical

12:06

everyday material things of how to deal

12:09

with our spouses or girlfriends or wives

12:11

or husbands and how to make money and

12:13

how to deal with our children so I'm

12:15

just tweeting about everything I just

12:17

got interested in everything I'm

12:18

tweeting about it and a lot of it my

12:20

best stuff was just notes to self it's

12:21

like hey don't forget this how to get

12:23

rich remember that one how to get rich

12:25

that like one theads and super Yeah Bang

12:30

Yeah Yeah Yeah I think that is still the

12:33

most viral threat ever on Twitter I like

12:35

Timeless things I I like philosophy I

12:37

like things that are still apply in the

12:39

future I like compound interests if you

12:42

will in

12:43

ideas obviously recently X has become so

12:46

addictive that we're all checking it

12:48

every day and elon's built the perfect

12:51

for you he's built Tik Tok for nerds and

12:53

we're all on it but normally I try to

12:55

ignore the news obviously last year

12:57

things got real we all had to pay of

12:59

attention to the news but I just like to

13:02

tweet Timeless things I I don't know I

13:03

mean people pay attention sometimes they

13:05

like what I write sometimes they they go

13:07

non ler on me but yeah the how to get

13:09

rich sweet storm was a big one is it

13:11

problematic when people now meet you

13:12

because the the hype versus the reality

13:16

there's like it's discordant now because

13:18

people if they absorb this content they

13:19

expect to see

13:21

Somey da yeah floating in the in the air

13:24

you know what I mean yes yeah like many

13:26

of you have stopped drinking but I used

13:28

to like have the occasional glass of

13:30

wine and there was a moment there where

13:31

I went and met with an information

13:34

reporter back when I used to meet with

13:35

reporters and she said where are we

13:38

going to meet so I said oh let's meet at

13:39

the the wine merchant and we'll get a

13:41

glass she's like what you drink like it

13:43

was like a big deal for I'm so

13:46

disappointed I was like I'm an

13:48

entrepreneur most of them are alcoholics

13:50

or and psychedelics or yeah for sure

13:53

takes to

13:54

man hot tub yeah right yeah when they

13:57

say I'm on therapy you know what that

13:59

that's code for um so yes it is highly

14:03

Discord medine yeah I'm I'm almost

14:05

reminded of that line in The Matrix

14:07

where that agent is about to like shoot

14:09

one of the Matrix characters and says

14:11

only human right so that's kind I want

14:13

to say to everybody like only human yeah

14:16

yeah yeah you did a recently a podcast

14:18

with Tim Ferris on parenting this was

14:22

out there I love this and I bought the

14:24

book from this guy yeah just give a a

14:27

brief overview of this philosophy of

14:30

parenting oh I didn't listen to this I

14:31

have to write this down tell us this

14:33

you're going to love this I this spoke

14:35

to me but it was a little crazy yeah so

14:37

I'm a big fan of David Deutsch David

14:39

deuts I think is basically the smartest

14:41

living human he's a scientist who yeah

14:44

Quantum computation and he's written a

14:46

couple of great books but it's about the

14:48

intersection of the greatest theories

14:50

that we have today the theories with the

14:51

most reach and those are epistemology

14:54

the theory of knowledge Evolution

14:56

quantum physics and computation this is

14:59

the beginning of infinity guy that's

15:00

theity is always reference correct yes

15:04

the fabric of reality is another book

15:05

I've spent a fair bit of time with him

15:07

done some podcasts with him hired and

15:09

worked with people around him and I'm

15:11

just really impressed because it's like

15:12

the the framework that's made me smarter

15:14

I feel like because we're all fighting

15:16

aging our brains are getting slower and

15:18

we're always trying to have better ideas

15:20

so as you age you should have wisdom

15:21

that's your substitute for the raw

15:23

horsepower of intelligence going down

15:25

and so scientific wisdom I take from

15:27

David not take but you know I learned

15:29

from David and one of the things that he

15:32

pioneered is called taking children

15:34

seriously and it's this idea that you

15:35

should take your children seriously like

15:37

adults you should always give them the

15:39

same Freedom that you would give an

15:40

adult if you wouldn't speak that way

15:42

with your spouse if you wouldn't force

15:44

your spouse to do something don't force

15:46

a child to do something and it's only

15:48

through the latent threat of physical

15:51

violence hey I can control you I can

15:53

make you go to your room I can take your

15:55

dinner away or whatever that you

15:57

intimidate children and it resonated

16:00

with me because I grew up very very free

16:03

my father wasn't around when I was young

16:05

my mother didn't have the bandwidth to

16:07

watch us all the time she had other

16:09

things to do and so I kind of was making

16:11

my own decisions from a extremely young

16:13

age from the age of five nobody was

16:15

telling me what to do and from the age

16:16

of nine I was telling everybody what to

16:18

do so I'm used to that and I've been

16:20

homeschooling my own kids so the

16:22

philosophy resonated and I found this

16:25

guy Aaron stuple on air chat and he was

16:28

an incredible Expositor of the

16:29

philosophy he lives his life with it 99%

16:32

as Extreme as one can go so his kids can

16:35

eat all the ice cream they want and all

16:36

the Snickers bars they want they can

16:38

play on the iPad all they want they

16:39

don't have to go to school if they don't

16:40

feel like it they dress how they want

16:42

they don't have to do anything they

16:43

don't want to do everything is a

16:44

discussion negotiation explanation just

16:47

like you would with a roommate or an

16:48

adult living in your house and it's kind

16:51

of insane and extreme but I live my own

16:54

home life in that Arc in that direction

16:59

and I'm a very free person I don't have

17:00

an office to go to I try really not to

17:02

maintain a calendar if I can't remember

17:04

it I don't want to do it I don't send my

17:07

kids to school I really try not to coers

17:08

them and so obviously that's an extreme

17:11

model but I was sorry sorry sorry hold

17:14

on a second so yeah your kids if they if

17:18

they were like I want hog and and it's

17:21

900 p.m. you're like okay two nights ago

17:25

I did this I ordered the hog andas it

17:27

wasn't hog andas it was a different

17:28

brand I ordered it

17:29

I'm just going to go through a couple of

17:30

examples in we do ice cream at 9:00 p.m.

17:32

and we all ate so they're like Dad I

17:34

want and they're happy they're happy

17:36

kids I want to be on my iPad I'm playing

17:38

fortnite leave me alone I'll go to sleep

17:40

when I want you're like okay my oldest

17:42

probably plays iPad nine hours a day

17:45

okay so then your other kid pees in

17:48

their pants because they're too lazy to

17:49

walk to the bathroom they don't do that

17:51

because they don't like peeing their

17:52

pants no I understand but I'm just

17:53

saying like there's a spectrum of all of

17:55

these things right yeah and your point

17:57

of view is 100% of it is allowed and you

18:00

have no judgments no no that's not where

18:02

I am that's where that's where Aaron is

18:04

my rules are a little different my rules

18:06

are they got to do one hour of math or

18:09

programming plus two hours of reading

18:12

every single day and the moment they've

18:14

done that they're free creatures and

18:17

everything else is a negotiation we have

18:19

to persuade them it's a persuasion I

18:20

should say not even a negotiation and

18:22

even the hour of math and 2 hours of

18:24

reading really you get 15 to 30 minutes

18:26

of math maybe an hour if you're lucky

18:28

and you get half an hour to two hours of

18:29

reading if and what do you think the

18:31

long-term consequences of that are and

18:34

then also what is the long-term

18:35

consequences let's say on health if

18:38

they're making decisions you know are

18:40

just not good like the ice cream thing

18:42

at 9:00 p.m. how do you how do you

18:43

manage that in your mind I think

18:47

whatever age you're at whatever part

18:48

you're at in life you're still always

18:50

struggling with your own habits I think

18:52

all of us for example still eat food and

18:54

feel guilty or want to eat something

18:55

that we shouldn't be eating and we're

18:57

still always evolving our diets and kids

18:58

are the same so my oldest is already he

19:01

passed on the ice cream last time and he

19:03

said I want to eat healthier because

19:04

finally I managed to get through to him

19:05

and persuade him that he should be

19:07

healthier my younger kids will eat it

19:09

but they'll eat a limited amount my

19:11

middle kid will sometimes eat some so if

19:14

they say something you'll enable it but

19:15

then you'll guide you'll be like Hey

19:17

listen like this is not the choice I

19:19

would make I don't think but if you want

19:20

it I do it yeah I'll try it but you also

19:23

have to be careful where you don't want

19:24

to intimidate them and you don't want to

19:25

be so overbearing that then they just

19:28

view dad is like controll it I find this

19:30

so fasc and so what do you think happens

19:32

to these kids at the like I'm sure you

19:34

have a vision of what they'll be like

19:36

when they're fully formed adults like

19:37

what is that Vision I I try not to

19:40

they're going to be who they're going to

19:41

be I this is kind of how I grew up I

19:43

kind of did what I

19:44

wanted I I would ra I would rather they

19:48

have

19:49

agency than turn out exactly the way I

19:52

want cuz agency is the hardest thing

19:54

right having control over your own life

19:56

making your own decisions them to be

19:59

happy I have a very happy household what

20:01

is the Plato what's Plato's goal udonia

20:04

right like udonia yeah the happy arist

20:07

like the the Fulfillment this Con is

20:08

that what you want for

20:10

them I don't really want anything for

20:13

them I just want them to be free and

20:17

their best selves God I

20:19

want shamat is worrying about details

20:22

he's got like 17 kids now I don't know

20:24

if you know but shamat has got like a

20:26

whole punch list of things but I love

20:27

this interview because the guy made a

20:30

really interesting point which was

20:32

they're going to have to make these

20:33

decisions at some point they're going to

20:35

have to learn the pros and cons the the

20:39

the upside the downside to all these

20:40

things eating iPad and the quicker you

20:43

get them to have agency to make these

20:45

decisions for themselves with knowledge

20:47

to ask questions the more secure they'll

20:50

be I found it a fascinating discussion I

20:52

like cause and effect especially in

20:54

teenagers now that I have a teenager

20:56

it's really good for them to learn hey

20:59

you know if you don't do your homework

21:00

you you have a problem and then you got

21:03

to solve that problem how are we going

21:04

to solve that problem so I like to

21:05

present it as what's your plan anytime

21:07

they have a problem 8-year-old kids

21:10

15year old kids I just say what's your

21:11

plan to solve this and then I like to

21:13

hear their plan and let me know if you

21:15

want to brainstorm it but I thought it

21:16

was a very interesting super interesting

21:19

discussion I I would say overall my kids

21:21

are very happy the household is very

21:23

happy everybody gets along everybody

21:26

loves each other yeah

21:29

some of them are way ahead of their

21:30

peers nobody's behind in anything that

21:33

matters nobody seems unhealthy in any

21:36

obvious way no one has aberant eating

21:38

habits I haven't even found an really an

21:40

aberrate Behavior that's out of line so

21:43

it's all good self correct me it's like

21:45

a i wor I worry a lot about this like

21:47

iPad situation I see my kids on an iPad

21:50

and it's almost like unless they're

21:53

doing an

21:54

interactive project if they end up

21:56

watching says says the guy who has a

21:58

video game theme in the background that

22:00

was interactive who probably and who

22:02

probably grew up playing video games

22:04

nonstop and probably spends 9 hours a

22:06

day on his screen just called a phone so

22:08

yeah yeah it's the same thing man well I

22:11

mean I feel like watch is it but do they

22:13

watch

22:13

shows no there a h there there's a

22:16

hypocrisy to picking up your phone and

22:17

then saying to your kid no you can't use

22:19

your iPad I grew up playing video games

22:21

non-stop in video games when I was older

22:23

and I was an avid gamer until just a few

22:25

years ago well I'm not I'm not critic

22:28

izing the the iPad I was obviously on a

22:30

computer since I was four years old so I

22:32

totally get it and I think the question

22:34

for me is like but I didn't have the

22:36

ability to play a 30 minute show and

22:40

then play the next 30 minute show and

22:41

the next 30 minute show and then sit

22:43

there for two hours and just have a show

22:45

playing the whole time I was you know

22:48

interacting on the computer and doing

22:49

stuff and building stuff which was a

22:51

little different me from a use case

22:53

perspective yeah we we we did use to

22:55

control their YouTube access although

22:57

now we don't do that

22:59

the only thing I ask them is that they

23:01

put on captions when they're watching

23:03

YouTube so it helps their reading they

23:05

learn to read fast good tip yeah I like

23:07

that one I will say that one of my kids

23:09

is really into YouTube the other two are

23:11

not like they just got over it and to

23:13

the extent that they use YouTube it's

23:14

mostly because they're looking up videos

23:16

on their favorite games they want to

23:18

know how to be better at a game all

23:20

right let's keep moving through this

23:21

docket we have David Sachs with us here

23:24

so uh David give us your philosophy of

23:26

parenting okay next item on the docket

23:27

let's go

23:30

talk about some real

23:32

issues show is not a parenting show a

23:35

parenting show I asked D what's your

23:38

parenting philosophy he said oh I set up

23:40

their trust four years ago so he's done

23:42

he's good trust is set up everything's

23:45

good g r a t

23:49

check you're all set guys let me know

23:52

how it works out all right speaking of

23:55

working out we've got a vice president

23:58

who isn't cuckoo for Coco Puffs and who

24:01

actually understands what AI is JD Vance

24:04

gave a great speech I watched it myself

24:06

he talked about AI in Paris this was on

24:09

Tuesday at the AI action Summit whatever

24:12

that is and he gave a 15minute banger of

24:15

a speech he talked about over regulating

24:17

Ai and America's intention to dominate

24:20

this and we happen to have with US Naval

24:23

the Zar the Zar of AI so before I go

24:26

into all the details about the speech I

24:28

don't steal your thunder sax this this

24:31

uh Speech had a lot of uh verbage a lot

24:34

of ideas that I've heard before that

24:36

maybe we've all talked about maybe tell

24:38

us a little bit about how this all came

24:40

together and how proud you are I mean

24:43

gosh having a vice president who

24:45

understands AI is just it's mind-blowing

24:48

he could speak on a

24:50

topic that's topical credibly this was

24:53

an awesome moment for America I think

24:55

what are you implying there JC I'm

24:57

implying you have workshopped it with

24:59

him no or that he's smart both of those

25:02

things the vice president wrote the

25:04

speech or at least directed all of it so

25:06

the ideas came from him I'm not going to

25:08

take any credit whatsoever for this okay

25:10

well it was on point maybe you could

25:12

talk about I agree it was on point I

25:13

think it was a very well crafted and

25:15

well- delivered speech he made four main

25:17

points about the Trump administration's

25:20

approach to AI he's going to ensure this

25:22

is point one that American AI continues

25:24

to be the gold standard fantastic check

25:27

two he says that the administration

25:30

understands that excessive regulation

25:31

could kill AI just as it's taking off

25:34

and he did this in front of all the EU

25:35

Elites who love regulation did it on

25:38

their home court and then he said number

25:40

three AI must remain free from

25:42

ideological bias as we've talked about

25:44

here on this program and then number

25:47

four the White House he said will quote

25:50

maintain a pro-worker growth path for AI

25:53

so that it can be a potent tool for job

25:55

creation in the US so what are your

25:58

thoughts on the four major bullet points

26:00

and and his speech here in uh Paris well

26:03

I think that the vice president you knew

26:06

he was going to deliver an important

26:08

speech as soon as he got up there and

26:09

said that I'm here to talk about not AI

26:13

safety but AI opportunity and to

26:17

understand what a bracing statement that

26:19

was and really almost like a shot across

26:21

the bow you have to understand the

26:23

history and context of these events for

26:26

the last couple of years the last couple

26:27

of these events have been exclusively

26:29

focused on AI safety the last inperson

26:31

event was in the UK at Bletchley Park

26:34

and the whole conference was devoted to

26:36

AI safety similarly the European AI

26:40

regulation obviously is completely

26:42

preoccupied with safety and trying to

26:43

regulate Away safety risks before they

26:46

happen similarly you had the Biden EO

26:48

which was based around safety and then

26:50

you have just the whole media coverage

26:52

around AI which is preoccupied with all

26:55

the risks from AI so to have the vice

26:58

president get up there and say right off

27:00

the bat that there are other things to

27:02

talk about in respect to AI besides

27:06

safety risk that actually there are huge

27:08

opportunities there was a breath of

27:11

fresh air and like I said kind of a shot

27:13

across the bow and yeah you could almost

27:15

see some of the eurocrats they needed

27:19

their fainting couches after that

27:20

eurocrats

27:21

trudo looks like his dog just died so I

27:24

think that was just a really important

27:26

statement right off the bat to the

27:28

context for the speech which is AI is a

27:31

huge opportunity for all of us because

27:34

really that point just has not been made

27:35

enough and it's true there are risks but

27:38

when you look at the media coverage and

27:39

when you look at the dialogue that The

27:42

Regulators have had around this they

27:43

never talk about the opportunities it's

27:45

always just around the wrist so I think

27:47

that was a very important corrective and

27:49

then like you said he went on to say

27:52

that the United States has to win this

27:54

AI race we want to be the gold standard

27:56

we want to dominate that was my favorite

27:58

part yeah and and by the way that

27:59

language about dominating Ai and and

28:01

winning the global race that is in

28:03

president Trump's executive order from

28:05

week one so this is very much

28:07

elaborating on the official policy of of

28:09

this Administration and the vice

28:12

president that went on to say that he

28:13

specified how we would do that right we

28:15

have to win some of these key building

28:17

block Technologies we want to win in

28:18

chips we want to win in AI models we

28:20

want to win in applications he said we

28:23

need to build we need to unlock energy

28:25

for these companies and then most of all

28:27

we just need to be supportive towards

28:28

them as opposed to regulating them to

28:30

death and he had a lot to say about the

28:33

the risk of overregulation

28:35

how often it's big companies that want

28:38

regulation he warned about regulatory

28:40

capture which our friend Bill Gurley

28:42

would like and he said that so basically

28:45

having less regulation can actually be

28:47

more fair can create a More Level

28:48

Playing Field for small companies as

28:51

well as big companies and then he he

28:53

said to the Europeans that we want you

28:55

to be partners with us we want to lead

28:57

the world we want you to be our our

28:59

partners and benefit from this

29:01

technology that we're going to take the

29:03

lead in creating but you also have to be

29:06

a good partner to us and then he

29:08

specifically called out the

29:09

overregulation that Europeans have been

29:11

engaged in he mentioned the Digital

29:13

Services act which has acted as like a

29:16

speed trap for American companies it's

29:18

American companies who've been

29:23

overregulation because the truth of the

29:25

matter is that it's American technology

29:27

companies that are winning the race and

29:29

so when Europe passes these owner

29:31

regulations they fall most of all on

29:34

American companies and he's basically

29:36

saying we need you to rebalance and and

29:39

correct this because it's not fair and

29:40

it's not smart policy and it's not going

29:43

to help us collectively win this AI race

29:45

and that kind of brings me just to to

29:47

the last point is I don't think he

29:48

mentioned China by name but clearly he

29:51

talked about adversarial countries who

29:54

are using AI to control their

29:56

populations to engage in censorship and

29:58

thought control and he basically painted

30:00

a picture where it's like yeah you could

30:02

go work with them or you could work with

30:04

us and we we have hundreds of years of

30:06

shared history together we believe in

30:08

things like free speech hopefully and we

30:11

want you to work with us but if you are

30:13

going to work with us then you have to

30:15

cooperate and we have to create a

30:17

reasonable regulatory regime Nal did you

30:20

see the uh Speech and your thoughts just

30:22

generally on JD Vance and and having

30:25

somebody like this you know representing

30:27

us and wanting to win American exception

30:30

very surprising very impressive I

30:32

thought he was polite

30:34

optimistic and just very forward-looking

30:36

just it's what you would expect an

30:38

entrepreneur or a smart investor to say

30:41

so I was very impressed I think the idea

30:43

that America should win great I think

30:45

that we should not regulate I also agree

30:48

with I'm not an AI Doomer I don't think

30:49

AI is going to end the world that's a

30:51

separate conversation but there's this

30:53

religion that comes along in many faces

30:55

which is that oh climate change is going

30:57

to end the world a going to end the

30:58

world asteroids going to end the world

31:00

covid-19 is going to end the world and

31:02

it just has a way of fixating your

31:03

attention right it captures everybody's

31:05

attention at once so it's a very

31:06

seductive thing and I think in the case

31:08

of AI it's really been overplayed by

31:11

incentive bias you know motivated

31:13

reasoning by the companies were ahead

31:15

and they want to pull up the ladder

31:16

behind them I I think they genuinely

31:18

believe it I think they genuinely

31:19

believe that there's safety risk but I

31:20

think they're motivated to believe in

31:22

those safety risks and then they pass

31:23

that along but it's kind of a weird

31:25

position because they have to say oh

31:27

it's so dangerous that you shouldn't

31:29

just let open source go at it and you

31:31

should let just a few of us work with

31:33

you on it but it's not so dangerous that

31:36

a private company can't own the whole

31:37

thing right because if it was truly the

31:39

Manhattan Project if they were building

31:40

nuclear weapons you wouldn't want one

31:42

company to own that no Sam wman famously

31:45

said that AI will capture the light cone

31:47

of all future value in other words like

31:49

all value ever created at the speed of

31:51

light from here will be captured by AI

31:54

so if that's true then I think open-

31:55

Source AI really matters and little Tech

31:58

AI really matters the problem is that

32:00

the nature of training these models is

32:02

highly centralized they benefit from

32:04

supercomputer clustered compute so it's

32:07

not clear how any decentralized model

32:09

can compete so to me the real issue

32:11

boils down to is how do you push AI

32:14

forward while not having just a very

32:16

small number of players control the

32:18

entire thing and we thought we had that

32:20

solution with the original open AI which

32:22

was a nonprofit was supposed to do for

32:23

Humanity but now because of they want to

32:26

incentivize the team and they want to

32:27

raise money they have to privatize at

32:29

least a part of it although it's not

32:30

clear to me why they need to privatize

32:32

the whole thing like why they need to

32:33

buy out the nonprofit portion you could

32:35

leave a nonprofit portion and you could

32:36

have the private portion for the

32:38

incentives but I think that the the real

32:41

challenge is how do you keep AI from

32:44

naturally centralizing because all the

32:46

economics and the technology underneath

32:49

are centralizing in nature if you really

32:51

think you're going to create God do you

32:53

want to put God on a leash with one

32:55

entity controlling God that to me is the

32:57

real fear not I'm not scared of AI I'm

33:00

scared of what a very small number of

33:02

people who control AI do to the rest of

33:04

us for our own good because that's how

33:06

it always works it's well said probably

33:07

should go with the Greek model having

33:09

many gods and uh Heroes as well freeberg

33:12

you heard the uh JD van speech I assume

33:15

what are your thoughts on overregulation

33:17

and uh maybe to nal's point one person

33:21

owning this versus open source I think

33:24

that there's this kind of big definition

33:27

of social balance right now on what I

33:29

would call techno optimism and techno

33:32

pessimism generally people sort of fall

33:35

into one of those two camps generally

33:37

speaking techno

33:39

optimists I would say are folks that

33:41

believe that accelerating outcomes with

33:43

AI with automation with bioengineering

33:46

manufacturing semiconductors Quantum

33:48

Computing nuclear energy Etc will usher

33:51

in this era of abundance by making by

33:54

creating leverage which is what

33:55

technology gives us

33:58

technology will make things cheaper and

34:00

it will be deflationary and it will give

34:02

everyone more so it creates abundance

34:05

the challenge is that people who already

34:07

have a lot worry more about the exposure

34:09

to the downside than they desire the

34:12

upside and so you know the techn

34:15

pessimists are generally like the EU and

34:18

large Parts frankly of the United States

34:21

are worried about the loss of X the loss

34:24

of jobs the loss of this the loss of

34:26

that whereas countries like China and

34:29

India are more excited about the

34:32

opportunity to create wealth the

34:33

opportunity to create leverage the

34:35

opportunity to create abundance for

34:36

their people you know GDP per capita in

34:39

in the EU $60,000 a year GDP per capita

34:42

in the United States like 82,000 but GDP

34:45

per capita in India is 2500 and China is

34:48

12,600 there's a greater incentive in

34:50

those countries uh to manifest upside

34:54

than there is for the United States and

34:56

the EU who are more worried about

34:58

manifesting downside and so it is a very

35:01

difficult kind of social battle that's

35:03

underway I do think like over time those

35:06

governments and those countries and

35:08

those social systems that Embrace these

35:10

Technologies are going to become more

35:12

capitalist and they're going to require

35:15

less government control and intervention

35:17

in job creation the economy payments to

35:19

people and so on and the countries that

35:21

are more techn pessimistic are

35:23

unfortunately going to find themselves

35:25

asking for greater government control

35:27

govern intervention in markets

35:29

governments creating jobs government

35:30

making payments to people government's

35:32

effectively running the economy my

35:34

personal view obviously is that I'm a

35:36

very strong advocate for technology

35:40

acceleration because I think in nearly

35:42

every case in human history when a new

35:43

technology has emerged we've largely

35:45

found ourselves assuming that the

35:48

technology works in the framework of

35:50

today or of yester year the automobile

35:53

came along and no one envisioned that

35:55

everyone in the United States would own

35:57

an automobile and therefore you would

35:58

need to create all of these new

35:59

Industries like mechanics and car

36:02

dealerships roads all the people

36:04

servicing building roads and all the

36:06

other industry that emerg and it's it's

36:09

very hard for us to sit here today and

36:10

say okay AI is going to destroy jobs

36:13

what's it going to create and be right I

36:15

think we're very likely going to be

36:16

wrong whatever estimations we we give

36:19

the area that I think is most

36:20

underestimated is large technical

36:22

projects that seem technically

36:24

infeasible today that AI can unlock for

36:26

example habitation in in the oceans like

36:30

it's very difficult for us to Envision

36:32

like creating cities underwater and

36:34

creating cities in the oceans or

36:35

creating cities on the moon or creating

36:37

cities on mars or finding new places to

36:38

live those are like technically people

36:40

might argue oh that sounds stupid I

36:42

don't want to go do that but at the end

36:43

of the day like human civilization will

36:45

drive us to want to do that but those

36:47

technically are very hard to pull off

36:49

today but AI can unlock a new set of

36:51

Industries to enable those transitions

36:53

so I think we really get it wrong when

36:54

we try and assume the technology as a

36:57

transplant for last year or last century

37:00

and then we kind of become techn

37:01

pessimists because we're worried about

37:02

losing what we have are you a techn

37:04

pessimist are you Optimist because I you

37:06

uh bring up the downside of awful lot

37:08

here on the program but you are working

37:10

every day in a very optimistic way to

37:12

breed you know better strawberries and

37:15

potatoes for folks so you're a little

37:17

bit of a no I have no techn pessimism

37:19

whatsoever I try and point out why the

37:21

other side is acting the way they are

37:22

got it okay putting it in full context

37:24

and what I'm trying to highlight is I

37:25

think that that framework is wrong I

37:27

think that that

37:28

frame

37:30

transology the way operating the way

37:34

about and it creates this you know

37:35

because of this manifestation about

37:37

worrying about downside it creates this

37:39

fear that that creates regulation like

37:40

we see in the EU and as a result China's

37:43

GDP will scale while the euus will

37:45

stagnate if that's where they go that's

37:47

my assessment or my opinion on what will

37:49

happen chath you want to wrap this up

37:50

for us what are your thoughts on JD I'll

37:52

give you two okay the first is I would

37:55

say this is a really interesting

37:58

moment where I would call this the tale

38:00

of two vice presidents very early in the

38:02

Biden Administration kamla was

38:05

dispatched on an equally important topic

38:08

at that time which was illegal

38:09

immigration and she went to Mexico and

38:12

Guatemala and so you actually have a

38:14

really interesting AB test here you have

38:18

both vice presidents dealing with what

38:21

we're in that moment incredibly

38:23

important issues and I think that JD was

38:26

focused he was precise he was

38:31

ambitious and even the part of the press

38:35

that was very supportive of kamla

38:37

couldn't find a lot of very positive

38:39

things to say about her and the feedback

38:41

was it was Meandering she was ducking

38:44

questions she didn't answer the

38:46

questions that she was asked very well

38:49

and it's so interesting because it's a

38:50

bit of a microcosm then to what happened

38:52

over these next four years and her

38:54

campaign quite honestly which you could

38:55

have taken that window of that feedback

38:58

and unfortunately for her it just

39:01

continued to be very consistent so that

39:02

was one observation I had because I

39:05

heard him give the speech I heard her

39:07

and I had this kind of moment where I

39:09

was like wow two totally different

39:12

people the second is on the substance of

39:14

what JD said I said this on Tucker and

39:17

I'll just simplify all of this into a

39:19

very basic framework which

39:21

is if you want a country to thrive it

39:24

needs to have economic Supremacy

39:28

and it needs to have military

39:30

Supremacy in the absence of those two

39:32

things societies

39:34

crumble and the only thing that

39:36

underpins those two things is

39:38

technological Supremacy and we see this

39:40

today so on Thursday what happened with

39:43

Microsoft they had a $24 billion

39:46

contract with the United States Army to

39:48

deliver some whizbang thing and they

39:52

realized that they couldn't deliver it

39:54

and so what did they do they went to

39:56

andril now why did they go to andril

39:58

because andril has the technological

40:00

Supremacy to actually execute a few

40:03

weeks ago we saw some attempts at

40:05

technological Supremacy from the Chinese

40:07

with respect to deep seek so I think

40:09

that this is a very simple existential

40:12

battle those who can harness and

40:16

govern the things that are

40:17

technologically Superior will

40:20

win and it will drive economic vibrancy

40:24

and Military Supremacy which then

40:26

creates safe strong societies that's it

40:29

so from that perspective JD nailed it he

40:33

saw the forest from the trees he said

40:35

exactly what I think needed to be said

40:38

and put folks on notice that you're

40:39

either on the ship or you're off the

40:41

ship and I think that that was really

40:42

good yeah and there was like um a little

40:46

secondary conversation that emerged

40:48

Sachs that I I would love to engage you

40:50

with if you're willing which is this

40:54

Civil War quote unquote between maybe

40:57

Maga 1.0 magga 2.0 techies ver in the

41:01

Maga party like

41:02

ourselves and maybe the core Maga folks

41:07

we can pull up the Tweet here in JD's

41:09

own word and he's been engaging people

41:12

in his own words it's very clear that

41:14

he's writing these tweets a distinct

41:16

difference between other politicians and

41:18

this Administration and they just tell

41:20

you what they think here it is I'll try

41:23

and write something to address this in

41:25

detail this is JD Vance's tweet but I

41:27

think this Civil War is overstated

41:30

though yes there are some real

41:31

divergences between the populace I would

41:33

describe that as magga and the techies

41:36

but briefly in general I dislike

41:37

substituting American labor for cheap

41:39

labor my views on immigration and

41:41

offshoring flow from this I like growth

41:43

and productivity gains and this informs

41:46

my view on Tech and regulation when it

41:48

comes to AI specifically the risks are

41:51

number one overstate to your point Nal

41:54

or two difficult to avoid one of my any

41:57

real concerns for instance is about

41:59

Consumer Fraud that's a valid reason to

42:02

worry about safety but the other problem

42:04

is much worse if a pure nation is 6

42:06

months ahead of the US on AI again I'll

42:09

try and say more and this is JD going

42:11

right at I think one of the more

42:13

controversial topic

42:15

sacks that the administration is dealing

42:18

with and has dealt with when it comes to

42:20

immigration and Tech because these two

42:22

things are dovetailing each other if we

42:24

lose millions of driver jobs which we

42:27

will in the next 10 years just like we

42:29

lost millions of cashier jobs well

42:32

that's going to impact how our nation

42:34

and many of the voters look at the

42:37

border and immigration we might not be

42:39

able to let as many people immigrate

42:41

here if we're losing millions of jobs to

42:44

Ai and self-driving cars what are your

42:46

thoughts on him engaging this directly

42:48

saxs well the first point he's making

42:50

there is about wage pressure right which

42:53

is when you throw open our Borders or

42:55

you throw open American markets products

42:57

that can be made in foreign countries by

43:00

much cheaper labor that's not held to

43:02

the same standards the same minimum wage

43:04

or the same Union rules or the same

43:06

safety standards that American labor is

43:08

and has a huge cost Advantage then

43:09

you're creating wage pressure for

43:11

American workers and he's opposed to

43:13

that and I think that is an important

43:15

point because I think the way that the

43:17

media or neoliberals like to portray

43:20

this argument is that somehow mag's

43:23

resistance to unlimited immigration is

43:25

somehow based on xenophobia or something

43:27

like like that no it's based on bread

43:29

and butter kitchen table issues which is

43:32

if you have this ridiculous open border

43:35

policy it's inevitably going to create a

43:37

lot of wage pressure for people at the

43:39

bottom of the pyramid so I think JD is

43:41

making that argument but and this is

43:44

point two he's saying I'm not against

43:46

productivity growth so technology is

43:48

good because it enables all of our

43:50

workers to improve their productivity

43:52

and that should result in better wages

43:55

because workers can produce more the

43:57

value of their labor goes up if they

43:59

have more tools to be productive so

44:01

there's no contradiction there and I

44:02

think he's explaining why there isn't a

44:04

contradiction a point I would add he

44:07

doesn't make this point in that tweet

44:08

but I would add is that one of the

44:11

problems that we've had over the last I

44:12

don't know 30 years is that we have had

44:15

tremendous productivity growth in the US

44:16

but labor has not been able to capture

44:18

it all that benefit has basically gone

44:20

to Capital or to companies and I think a

44:23

big part of the reason why is because

44:25

we've had this largely unrestricted

44:27

immigration policy so I think if you

44:29

were to Tamp down on immigration if you

44:32

were to stop the illegal immigration

44:34

then labor might be able to capture more

44:36

of the benefits of productivity growth

44:38

and that would be a good thing it' be a

44:39

more equitable distribution of the gains

44:43

from productivity and from technology

44:46

and that I think would help Tamp down

44:50

this growing conflict that you see

44:52

between technologists and the rest of

44:55

the country or certainly the heartland

44:56

of the country nval this is a okay you

44:59

want to add anything else David sorry

45:00

well I think just the final point he

45:02

makes in that tweet is that he talks

45:04

about how we live in a world in which

45:06

there are other countries that are

45:07

competitive and specifically he he

45:09

doesn't mention China but he says we

45:10

have a pure competitor and it's going to

45:13

be a much worse world if they end up

45:16

being six months ahead of us on AI

45:18

rather than six months behind that is a

45:19

really important point to keep in mind I

45:21

think that the whole Paris AI Summit

45:24

took place against the backdrop of this

45:26

recognition because just a few weeks ago

45:28

we had deep seek and it's really clear

45:30

that China is not a year behind us

45:32

they're hot on our heels or only maybe

45:35

months behind us and so if we hobble

45:37

ourselves with unnecessary regulations

45:39

if we make it more difficult for our AI

45:42

companies to compete that doesn't mean

45:44

that China's going to follow suit and

45:45

copy us they're going to take advantage

45:46

of that fact and they're going to win

45:48

all right nval this seems to be one of

45:49

the main issues of our time four of the

45:52

five people on this podcast right now

45:54

are immigrants so we have this amazing

45:57

in America this is a country built by

45:59

immigrants for immigrants do you think

46:02

that should change now in the face of

46:04

job destruction which I know you've been

46:06

tracking self-driving pretty acutely we

46:10

both have an interest there I think over

46:12

the years you know what's the solution

46:16

here if we're going to see a bunch of

46:19

job displacement which will happen for

46:22

certain jobs we all we all kind of know

46:23

that should we shut the border and not

46:25

let the next Nal chamat Max and

46:27

freedberg into the country well let me

46:28

let me declare my biases up front I'm a

46:30

first generation immigrant I moved here

46:32

when I was 9 years old rather my parents

46:34

did and then I naturalized

46:36

citizen so obviously I'm in favor of

46:39

some level of immigration that said I'm

46:40

assimilated I consider myself an

46:42

American first and

46:43

foremost I bleed red white and blue I

46:47

believe in the Bill of Rights and the

46:49

Constitution first and second and fourth

46:52

and all the proper amendments I get up

46:55

there every July 4th and I deliberately

46:56

defend the Second Amendment on Twitter

46:58

at which point half my followers Go

47:01

Bananas you know cuz you're because I'm

47:03

not supposed to I'm supposed to be a

47:04

good immigrant right and and carry the

47:06

usual set of coherent leftist policies

47:10

globalist policies so I think that legal

47:14

High skill immigration with room and

47:17

time for assimilation makes sense you

47:20

want to have a brain drain on the best

47:21

and brightest coming to the freest

47:22

country in the world to build technology

47:26

and to help civilization move forward

47:29

and you know as chth was saying economic

47:32

power and military power is Downstream

47:34

of technology in fact even culture is

47:37

Downstream of Technology look at what

47:39

the birth control pill did for example

47:40

to culture or what the automobile did to

47:42

culture or what radio and television did

47:44

to culture and then the internet so

47:46

technology drives everything and if you

47:48

look at wealth wealth is a set of

47:50

physical Transformations that you can

47:51

affect and that's a combination of

47:53

capital and knowledge and the bigger

47:55

input to that is knowledge and so the US

47:58

has become the home of knowledge

47:59

creation thanks to bringing in the best

48:01

and brightest you could even argue deep

48:03

Seek part of the reason why we lost that

48:04

is because a bunch of those kids they

48:06

studied in the US but then we sent them

48:08

back home right so I think you

48:09

absolutely is that actually accurate

48:11

that they were uh yeah yeah yeah some a

48:13

few of them really oh my God that's like

48:15

exhibit a wow I didn't know that so I

48:17

think you absolutely have to split

48:20

skilled assimilated immigration which is

48:23

a small set and it has to be both they

48:25

have to both be skilled and they have to

48:26

become Americans that oath is not

48:28

meaningless right it has to mean

48:30

something so skilled assimilated

48:32

immigration you have to separate that

48:33

from just open borders whoever can

48:35

wander in just come on in that that

48:37

latter part makes no sense if the Biden

48:39

administration had only been letting in

48:41

people with 150 IQs we wouldn't have

48:43

this debate right now the reason why

48:45

we're having this debate is because they

48:48

just opened the border and let millions

48:49

and millions of people in it was to

48:51

their advantage to conflate legal and

48:53

illegal immigration so every time You'

48:55

be like well we can't just open the

48:56

Border say what about Elon what about

48:59

this and they would just parade if they

49:00

were just letting Elon and the Jensen

49:04

and freed bgs we wouldn't be having the

49:06

same conversation today the correlation

49:08

between open borders and wage

49:11

suppression is irrefutable we know that

49:13

data and I think that the

49:16

Democrats for whatever logic

49:19

committed an incredible error in

49:23

basically undermining their core cohort

49:25

I want to go back to what you said

49:27

because I think it's super important

49:28

there is a new political calculus on the

49:32

field and I agree with you I think that

49:35

the the three cohorts of the future are

49:39

the asset light working in middle class

49:42

that's cohort number one there are

49:45

probably 100 to 150 million of those

49:48

folks then there are patriotic business

49:51

owners and then there's leaders in

49:54

Innovation those are the three and I

49:57

think that what Maga gets right is they

50:00

found the middle ground that intersects

50:02

those three cohorts of people and so

50:04

every time you see this sort of left

50:07

versus right dichotomy it's totally

50:09

miscast and it sounds discordant to so

50:12

many of us because that's not how any of

50:13

us identify right and I think that

50:16

that's a very important observation

50:17

because the policies that we adapt will

50:19

need to reflect those three cohorts what

50:21

is the common ground amongst those three

50:24

and on that point nval is right there's

50:26

not lot that those three would say is

50:28

wrong with a very targeted form of

50:31

extremely useful legal immigration of

50:34

very very very smart people who agree to

50:37

assimilate and be a part of America I

50:39

mean I'm so glad you said it the way you

50:41

said it like I remember growing up where

50:44

my parents would try to pretend that

50:46

they were in Sri Lanka and sometimes I

50:48

would get so frustrated I'm like if you

50:49

want to be in Sri Lanka go back to Sri

50:53

Lanka I want to be Canadian because it

50:56

was easier for me to make friends it was

50:58

easier for me to have a life I was

50:59

trying my best I wanted to be Canadian

51:01

and then when I moved to the United

51:03

States 25 years ago I wanted to be

51:06

American and I feel that I'm American

51:09

now and I'm proud to be an American and

51:11

I think that's what you want you want

51:13

people that embrace it doesn't mean that

51:14

we can't dress up in a show AR CES every

51:16

now and then but the point is like what

51:19

do you believe and where is your loyalty

51:22

freeberg we used to have this concept of

51:24

in a Melting Pot of this assimilation

51:28

and that was a good thing then it became

51:29

cultural appropriation we we kind of

51:31

made a right turn here where where do

51:32

you stand on this recruiting the best

51:35

and brightest and forcing them to

51:38

assimilate making sure that they're down

51:40

Jason find the people that care to be

51:42

here yeah let me res that uh I reject

51:46

the premise this whole

51:47

conversation wait wait hold on look I'm

51:50

look I'm a first generation American who

51:53

moved here when I was five and became a

51:55

citizen when I was 10 and yes I'm fully

51:57

American and that's the only country I

51:59

have any loyalty to but I the the

52:01

premise that I reject here is that

52:04

somehow an AI conversation leads to an

52:06

immigration conversation because

52:08

millions of jobs are going to be lost we

52:09

don't know that that's also true I agree

52:11

you're making a huge assumption buying

52:14

into the

52:16

dorismond of jobs that is not those are

52:18

fact not evidence I think any jobs have

52:22

any jobs been lost by AI let's be real

52:24

we've had AI for two and a half years

52:25

and I think it's great but so far it's a

52:27

better search engine and it helps high

52:30

school kids cheat on their essays I mean

52:32

you don't believe that self driving is

52:35

coming hold on a second Sach you don't

52:37

believe that Millions but but hold on

52:39

those those driver jobs weren't even

52:41

there 10 years ago Uber came along and

52:42

created all these driver jobs door Dash

52:44

created all these driver jobs so what

52:46

technology does yes technology destroys

52:49

jobs but it replaces them with

52:50

opportunities that are even better and

52:52

then either you can go capture that

52:54

opportunity yourself or an entrepreneur

52:56

will come along and create something

52:57

that allows you to capture those

52:59

opportunities AI is a productivity tool

53:02

it increases the productivity of a

53:03

worker it allows and do more creative

53:05

work and less repetitive work as such it

53:07

makes them more valuable yes there is

53:09

some retraining involved but not a lot

53:11

these are natural language computers you

53:12

can talk to them in plain English and

53:13

they talk back to you in plain English

53:15

but I think David is absolutely right I

53:17

think we will see job creation by AI

53:20

that will be as fast or faster than job

53:22

destruction you saw this even with the

53:24

internet like YouTube came along look at

53:25

all these YouTube streamers and

53:26

influencers that didn't used to be a job

53:29

new jobs really opportunities cuz job is

53:32

a wrong word job implies someone else

53:33

has to give it to me and sort of like

53:35

their handed out it's a zero some game

53:38

forget all that it's opportunities after

53:41

covid look at how many people are making

53:43

money by working from home in mysterious

53:46

little ways on the internet that you

53:47

can't even quite grasp here's the way I

53:50

categorize it okay is that whenever you

53:52

have a new technology you get

53:53

productivity gains you get some job

53:56

disruption meaning that part of your job

53:58

may go away but then you get other parts

54:00

that are new and hopefully more elevated

54:03

you know more interesting and then there

54:05

is some job loss I just think that the

54:07

third category will follow the

54:09

historical Trend which is that the first

54:11

two categories are always bigger and you

54:14

end up with more net productivity and

54:16

more net wealth creation and we've seen

54:18

no evidence to date that that's not

54:19

going to be the case now it's true that

54:21

AI is about to get more powerful you're

54:22

going to see a whole new wave of what

54:24

are called agents this year a agentic

54:26

products are able to do more for you but

54:29

there's no evidence yet that those

54:31

things are going to be completely

54:32

unsupervised and replace people's jobs

54:34

so you know I think that we have to see

54:36

how this technology evolves and I think

54:38

one of the mistakes of let's call it the

54:41

European approach is assuming that you

54:43

can predict the future with perfect

54:45

accuracy with such good accuracy that

54:48

you can create regulations today that

54:50

are going to avoid all these risks in

54:52

the future and we just don't know enough

54:54

yet to be able to do that that's level

54:56

of certainty I agree with you and the

54:59

companies that are promulgating that

55:02

view is what nval said those that have

55:04

an economic vested interest in at least

55:07

convincing the next incremental investor

55:09

that this could be true because they

55:11

want to make the claim that all the

55:12

money should go to them so they could

55:13

Hoover up all the economic gains and

55:16

that's that is the part of the cycle

55:17

we're in so if you if you actually

55:19

stratify these reactions there's the

55:22

small startup companies in AI that

55:24

believe there's a productivity leap to

55:25

be had and that there's going to be

55:28

Prosperity everybody on the sidelines

55:30

watching and then a few companies that

55:32

have an extremely vested interest in

55:34

them being a gatekeeper because they

55:36

need to raise the next 30 or $40 billion

55:38

doar trying to convince people that

55:39

that's true and if you view it through

55:41

that lens you're right saxs we have not

55:43

accomplished anything yet that proves

55:45

that this is going to be cataclysmically

55:47

bad and if anything right now history

55:49

would tell you it's probably going to be

55:51

like the past which is generally

55:53

productive and a cre Society yeah and

55:55

just to bring it back back to JD's

55:57

speech which is where we started I think

55:59

it was a quintessentially American

56:02

speech in the sense that he said we

56:04

should be optimistic about the

56:06

opportunities here which I think is

56:08

basically right and we want to lead we

56:11

want to take advantage of this we don't

56:13

want to hobble it we don't even fully

56:16

know what it's going to be yet we are

56:19

going to Center workers we want to be

56:21

Pro worker and I think that if there are

56:24

downsides for workers then we can

56:25

mitigate those things in the future but

56:27

it's too early to say that we know what

56:29

the program should be it's more about a

56:31

statement of values at this point do you

56:33

think it's too early freeberg given

56:36

optimists and all these robots being

56:38

created what we're seeing in

56:40

self-driving you've talked about the

56:41

ramp up with

56:43

wh to actually say we will not see

56:46

millions of

56:48

jobs and millions of people get

56:50

displaced from those jobs what do you

56:51

think freeberg I'm curious your thoughts

56:53

because that is the

56:54

counterargument my experience erence in

56:56

the workplace is that AI

56:59

tools that are doing things that an

57:02

analyst or knowledge worker was doing

57:05

with many hours in the past is allowing

57:07

them to do something in minutes that

57:09

doesn't mean that they spend the rest of

57:11

the day doing nothing what's great for

57:13

our business and for other businesses

57:15

like ours that can leverage AI tools is

57:19

that those individuals can now do more

57:21

and so our throughput our productivity

57:23

as an organization has gone up and we

57:26

can now create more things faster so

57:28

whatever the product is that my company

57:30

makes we can now make more things more

57:32

quickly we can do more development

57:34

you're seeing it on the ground correct

57:35

at a hollow and I'm seeing it on the

57:37

ground and I don't think that this like

57:39

transplantation of how bad AI will be

57:42

for jobs is the right framing as much as

57:45

it is about an acceleration of

57:46

productivity and this is why I go back

57:48

to the point about GDP per capita and

57:50

GDP growth countries societies areas

57:54

that are interested or industries that

57:55

are interested in accelerating output in

57:58

accelerating productivity the ability to

58:00

make stuff and sell stuff are going to

58:03

rapidly Embrace these tools because it

58:04

allows them to do more with less and I

58:07

think that's what I really see on the

58:08

ground and then the second point I'll

58:10

make is the one that I mentioned earlier

58:11

and I'll wrap up with a third point

58:13

which is I think we're underestimating

58:15

the new industries that will emerge

58:17

drastically dramatically there is going

58:19

to be so much new sh that we are not

58:21

really thinking deeply about right now

58:24

that we could do a whole another 2hour

58:26

brainstorming session on on what AI

58:28

unlocks in terms of large scale projects

58:32

that are traditionally or typically are

58:34

today held back because of the

58:36

constraints on the technical feasibility

58:38

of these projects and that ranges from

58:41

accelerating to new semiconductor

58:43

technology to Quantum Computing to

58:45

Energy Systems to transportation to

58:48

habitation etc etc there's all sorts of

58:50

transformations in every industry that's

58:52

possible as these tools come online and

58:54

that will spurn insane new Industries

58:56

the most important point is the third

58:58

one which is we don't know the overlap

59:00

of job loss and job creation if there is

59:03

one and so the rate at which these new

59:05

technologies impact and great new

59:07

markets but I think nval is right I

59:08

think that what happens in capitalism

59:10

and in free societies is that capital

59:13

and people rush to fill the hole of new

59:15

opportunities that emerge because of AI

59:18

and that those grow more quickly than

59:19

the old bubbles deflate so if there's a

59:22

deflationary effect in terms of job need

59:24

in other Industries I think the loss

59:26

will happen slower then the rush to take

59:28

advantage of creating new things will

59:30

happen on the other side so my bet is

59:32

probably on the order of I think new

59:34

things will be created faster than old

59:36

things will be lost I think actually as

59:39

a quick side note to that the fastest

59:41

way to help somebody get a job right now

59:43

if you know somebody in the market who's

59:44

looking for a job the best thing you can

59:47

do is say hey go download the AI tools

59:49

and just start talking to them just

59:51

start using them in any way and then you

59:52

can walk into any employer in almost any

59:55

field and say hey I understand Ai and

59:57

they'll hire you on the exactly nval you

59:59

and I watched this happen we had a front

60:02

row seat to it back in the day when you

60:05

were doing Venture hacks and I was doing

60:07

open Angel Forum we had to like fight to

60:09

find five or 10 companies a month then

60:11

the cost of running these companies went

60:13

down they went down massively from five

60:15

million to start a company to two then

60:17

to 250k then to 100K I think what we're

60:21

seeing is like three things concurrently

60:23

you're going to see all these jobs go

60:24

away for automation self-driving cars

60:27

cashier Etc but we're going to also see

60:30

static team size at places like Google

60:32

they're just not hiring because they're

60:33

just having the existing bloated

60:34

employee base learn the tools but I

60:37

don't know if you're seeing this the

60:39

number of startups able to get a product

60:41

to Market with two or three people and

60:43

get to a million in revenue is booming

60:45

what are you seeing in the startup

60:47

landscape definitely what you're saying

60:49

in that there's leverage but at the same

60:51

time the I think the more interesting

60:53

part is that new startups are enabled

60:55

that could not exist otherwise uh my

60:58

last startup air chat could not have

60:59

existed without AI because we needed a

61:01

transcription and translation even the

61:03

current thing I'm working on it's not an

61:04

AI company but it cannot exist without

61:06

AI it is relying on AI even at angelist

61:09

we're significantly adopting AI like

61:11

everywhere you turn it's more

61:13

opportunity more opportunity more

61:14

opportunity and people like to go on uh

61:18

Twitter or the artist formerly known as

61:20

Twitter and and and basically they like

61:22

to exaggerate like oh my God we've hit

61:25

AGI oh my my God I just replaced my all

61:27

my mid-level Engineers oh my god I've

61:28

stopped hiring to me that's like moronic

61:31

the two valid ones are the onean

61:33

entrepreneur shows where there's like

61:35

one guy or one gal and they're like

61:36

scaling up like crazy things to AI or

61:39

there are people who are embracing Ai

61:41

and being like I need to hire and I need

61:42

to hire anyone who can even spell AI

61:45

like anyone who's even used AI just come

61:47

on in come on in again I would say the

61:50

easiest way to see that AI is not taking

61:52

jobs of creating opportunities is go

61:54

brush up on your learn a little bit

61:57

watch a few videos use the AI Tinker

61:59

with it and then go reapply for that job

62:01

that rejected you and watch how they

62:03

pull you in in 2023 an economist named

62:05

Richard Baldwin said AI won't take your

62:07

job it's someone using AI that will take

62:10

your job because they know how to use it

62:11

better than you and that's kind of

62:13

become a meme and you see it floating

62:14

around X but I think there's a lot of

62:16

Truth in that you know as long as you

62:18

remain adaptive and you keep learning

62:20

and you learn how to take advantage of

62:22

these tools you should do better and if

62:25

you wall yourself off from the

62:26

technology and don't take advantage of

62:28

it that's when you put yourself at risk

62:30

another way to think about it is these

62:31

are natural language computers so

62:33

everyone who's intimidated by computers

62:35

before should no longer be intimidated

62:37

you don't need to program anymore in

62:39

some esoteric language or learn some

62:41

obscure mathematics to be able to use

62:43

these you can just talk to them and they

62:44

talk back to you that's magic the new

62:47

programming language is English chath

62:48

you want to wrap us up here on this

62:50

opportunity slash displacement slash

62:53

chaos I was gonna say this before but I

62:56

I'm pretty unconvinced anymore that

63:00

you should bother even learning many of

63:04

the hard sciences and maths that we used

63:07

to as underpinnings like I used to

63:09

believe that the right thing to do was

63:11

for everybody to go into

63:12

engineering I'm not necessarily as

63:15

convinced as I used to be because I used

63:16

to say well that's great first

63:18

principles thinking etc etc and you're

63:20

going to get trained in a toolkit that

63:21

will scale and I'm not sure that that's

63:24

true I think like you can you can use

63:26

these agents and you can use deep

63:28

research and all of a sudden they

63:30

replace a lot of that skill so what's

63:31

left over it's creativity it's judgment

63:34

it's history it's psychology it's all of

63:37

these other sort of like softare

63:39

leadership communication that allow you

63:41

to manipulate these models in

63:42

constructive ways because when you think

63:44

of like the prompt engineering that gets

63:45

you to Great answers it's actually just

63:47

thinking in totally different orthogonal

63:49

ways and

63:50

nonlinearly so that's my last thought

63:52

which is it does open up the aperture

63:54

meaning for every smart mathematical

63:56

genius there's many many many other

63:58

people who have high EQ and all of a

64:02

sudden this tool actually takes the

64:04

skill away from the person with just a

64:07

high IQ and says if you have these other

64:09

skills now you can compete with me

64:11

equally and I think that that's

64:13

liberating for a lot of people I'm in

64:15

the camp of more opportunity you know I

64:17

I got to watch the movie industry a

64:19

whole bunch when the digital cameras

64:21

came out and more people started making

64:23

documentaries more people started making

64:25

independent film shorts and then of

64:27

course the Youtube Revolution people

64:28

started making videos on YouTube or

64:31

podcasts like this and if you look at

64:33

what happened with like the special

64:34

effects industry as well we need far

64:38

fewer people to make a Star Wars movie

64:41

to make a Star Wars series to make a

64:42

Marvel series as we've seen now we can

64:45

get the Mandalorian and shoka and all

64:47

these other series with smaller numbers

64:49

of people and they look better than

64:52

obviously the original Star Wars series

64:53

or even the prequels so there's there's

64:55

going to be so many more opportunities

64:57

we're now making more TV shows more

64:59

series everything we wanted to see of

65:01

every little character that's the same

65:03

thing that's happening in startups I

65:04

can't believe that there is a app now

65:07

nval called slopes just for uh skiing

65:11

and there are 20 really good apps for

65:15

just meditation and there are 10 really

65:17

good ones just for fasting like we're

65:18

going down this long taale of

65:20

opportunity and there'll be plenty of

65:21

million to10 million businesses for us

65:25

you know people learn to use these tools

65:27

I love how that's the thing that tips

65:29

you over which

65:32

one you get an extra Marvel movie or an

65:35

extra Star Wars show so that tips you

65:37

over I think for a lot of people it's it

65:40

feels great that AI may take over the

65:42

world but I'm gonna get next to Star

65:44

Wars movie so I'm I'm cool yeah I mean

65:46

it's are you not entertained want to

65:48

final point on this is look I mean given

65:50

the choice between the two categories of

65:52

techno Optimist and techn pessimist I'm

65:54

definitely in The Optimist camp and I I

65:55

think and I think we should be but I I

65:57

think there's actually a third category

65:59

that I would submit which is techno

66:02

realist which is technology is going to

66:06

happen trying to stop it is like

66:07

ordering the tides to stop if we don't

66:10

do it somebody else will China's going

66:12

to do it or somebody else will do it and

66:14

it's better for us to be in control of

66:17

the technology to be the leader rather

66:19

than passively waiting for it to happen

66:21

to us and I just think that's always

66:24

true it's better for businesses to be

66:27

proactive and take the lead disrupt

66:29

themselves instead of waiting for

66:29

someone else to do it and I think it's

66:31

better for countries and I think you did

66:33

see this theme a little bit I mean these

66:35

are my own views I don't want to ascribe

66:38

them to the vice president but you did

66:39

see I think a hint of the Techno realism

66:43

idea in his speech and in his tweet

66:45

which is look AI is going to happen we

66:48

might as well be the leader if we don't

66:51

we could lose in a key category that has

66:55

implications for National Security for

66:57

our economy for many things so that's

66:59

just not a world we want to live in so I

67:01

think a lot of this debate is sort of

67:03

academic because whether you're an

67:06

optimist or pessimist is sort of glass

67:08

half empty half full the question is

67:10

just is it going to happen or not and I

67:12

think the answer is yes so then we want

67:14

to control it this just you know let's

67:16

just boil it down there's not a

67:17

tremendous amount of choice in this I

67:19

think I would agree heavily with one

67:20

point and I would just tweak another the

67:23

point I would agree with is that it's

67:25

going to happen anyway and that's what

67:26

deep seek proved you can turn off the

67:28

flow of chips to them and you can turn

67:30

off the flow of talent what do they do

67:31

they just get more efficient and they

67:33

exported it back to us they sent us back

67:35

the best open source model when our guys

67:37

were staying closed source for safety

67:39

reasons and exactly and I deep explo

67:43

safety of their Equity deep seek

67:45

exploded the fallacy that the US has a

67:48

monopoly in this category and that

67:50

somehow therefore we can slow down the

67:52

train and that we have total control

67:55

over the train and I think what deep

67:56

seek showed is no if we slow down the

67:57

train they're just going to win yeah the

67:59

part the part where I TR to tweak a

68:01

little bit is the idea that we are going

68:03

to win by we when you say America the

68:06

problem is that the best way to win is

68:08

to be as open as distributed as

68:10

Innovative as possible if this all ends

68:12

up in the control of one company they're

68:14

actually going to be slower to innovate

68:15

than if there's a dynamic system and

68:18

that dynamic system by its nature will

68:19

be open it will leak to China it will

68:22

leak to India but these things have

68:24

powerful Network effects we know this

68:25

about technology almost all Technologies

68:27

has Network effects underneath and so

68:30

even if you are open you're still going

68:32

to win and you're still going to control

68:34

you look at the internet that was all

68:35

true for the internet right the

68:36

internet's an open Technologies based on

68:38

tons of Open Source Who are the Dom

68:40

companies all the dominant companies are

68:42

us companies because they were in the

68:43

lead exactly right exactly right we we

68:45

embrac the open internet we embrac the

68:47

open internet right that was different

68:48

yeah so there will be benefits for all

68:49

of humanity and I think the vice

68:51

president's speech was really clear that

68:53

look we want you guys to be on board we

68:54

want to be good

68:55

Partners however there are definitely

68:57

going to be winners economically

69:00

militarily and in order to be one of

69:02

those winners you have to be a leader

69:04

who's going to get to AGI first nval is

69:06

it going to be an open source who's

69:08

going to win is it going to be open

69:10

source or closed Source who's going to

69:11

win the day if we're sitting here 5 10

69:13

years from now and we're looking at the

69:15

top three language models lot of trouble

69:17

for this but I don't think we know how

69:18

to build AGI but that's that's a much

69:20

longer discuss who's going to have the

69:22

best model five years from hold on I I

69:24

100% agree with you I just think it's a

69:26

different thing but what we're building

69:27

are these incredible natural language

69:29

computers and actually David in a very

69:32

pithy way summarized the two big use

69:33

cases it's search and it's homework it's

69:36

paperwork uh it's it's really paperwork

69:38

and a lot of these jobs that we're

69:40

talking about disappearing are actually

69:42

paperwork jobs they're paperwork

69:43

shuffling these are madeup jobs like the

69:45

federal government as we're finding out

69:46

through Doge you know a third of it is

69:48

like people digging holes of spoons and

69:50

the another third are filling them back

69:51

up they're filling up paperwork and then

69:52

burying it in a m shaft they're buing M

69:54

shaft Mountain yeah so I I I think a lot

69:57

of these madeup jobs they got to go down

69:59

the M shaft to get the paperwork when

70:00

someone retires and bring it up you know

70:01

what I'm going to get them some thumb

70:03

drives we can increase the throughput of

70:04

the elevator with some thumb drives it

70:06

would be incredible what we found out is

70:08

the the DMV has been running the

70:09

government for the last 70 years it's

70:11

been a compounding compounding that's

70:13

that's really what's going on DMV is in

70:15

charge I mean if the world ends in

70:18

nuclear war God for bid the only thing

70:19

that's be left will be the Cockroaches

70:21

and then a bunch of like government work

70:24

documents s report TPS reports down in

70:27

the M shaft basically

70:30

yeah let's take a moment everybody to

70:33

thank our

70:35

Zar we miss him we wish he could be here

70:38

for the whole show and thank you Zar

70:40

thank you to the Zar see you guys miss

70:43

you we miss you little buddy I wish we

70:44

could talk about Ukraine but we're not

70:46

allowed get back to work we'll talk

70:48

about it another time over cfee I'll see

70:50

you in the comissary thanks for the

70:52

invite bye man I'm so excited I'm nval

70:56

saaks invited me to go to the the

70:58

military mess I'm going to be in the

70:59

commissary no he didn't J you invited

71:02

yourself be honest I did yes I did I put

71:04

it on his calendar to keep the

71:05

conversation moving let me segue a point

71:07

that came up that was really important

71:09

into tariffs and the point is even

71:13

though the internet was open the US won

71:16

a lot of the internet a lot of us

71:18

companies won the internet and they won

71:20

that because we got there the firstest

71:22

with the mostest as they say in the

71:23

military and that matters because a a

71:26

lot of Technology businesses have scale

71:28

economies and network effects underneath

71:30

even basic brand-based Network effects

71:33

if you go back to the late 90s early

71:35

2000s very few people would have

71:37

predicted that we would have ended up

71:38

with Amazon basically owning all of

71:40

e-commerce you would have thought it

71:41

would have been a perfect competition

71:43

and very spread out and that applies to

71:45

how we end up with Uber as basically one

71:47

taxi service or we end up with Airbnb

71:50

meta Airbnb it's just Network effects

71:52

Network effects Network effects rule the

71:54

world around me but but when it comes to

71:55

tariffs and when it comes to trade we

71:58

act like Network effects don't exist the

72:00

classic ricardian comparative advantage

72:02

Dogma says that you should produce what

72:04

you're best at I produce what I'm best

72:06

at and we trade and then even if you

72:08

want to charge me more for it if you

72:09

want to impose tariffs for me to ship to

72:11

you I should still keep tariffs down

72:13

because I'm better off you're just

72:14

selling me stuff cheaply great or if you

72:17

want to subsidize your guys great you're

72:18

selling me stuff cheaply the problem is

72:20

that is not how most modern businesses

72:22

work most modern businesses have Network

72:24

effects as a simple thought experiment

72:26

suppose that we have two countries right

72:28

I'm China you're the US I start out by

72:31

subsidizing all of my companies and

72:34

industries that have Network effects so

72:36

I'll subsidize Tik Tok I'll ban your

72:39

social media but I'll push mine I will

72:42

subsidize my semiconductors which tend

72:44

do tend to have win or take-all in

72:45

certain categories or I'll subsidize my

72:47

drones and then B exactly byd

72:50

self-driving whatever and then when I

72:53

win I own the whole market and I can

72:55

raise prices and if you try to start up

72:57

a competitor then it's too late I've got

72:59

Network effects or if I've got scale

73:01

economies I can lower my price to zero

73:03

crash you out of business no one in

73:04

their right mind will invest and I'll

73:05

raise prices right back up so you have

73:08

to understand that certain industries

73:10

have hesis or they have Network effects

73:12

or they have economies of scale and

73:14

these are all the interesting ones these

73:15

are all the high margin businesses so in

73:17

those if somebody is subsidizing or

73:19

they're raising tariffs against you to

73:21

protect your industries and let them

73:23

develop you do have to do something you

73:25

can't just completely back

73:28

down what are your thoughts jamath about

73:31

tariffs and network effects it does seem

73:32

like we do want to have uh redundancy in

73:36

supply chain so there are some

73:37

exceptions here any um thoughts on how

73:40

this might play out because yeah Trump

73:42

brings up tus every 48 hours and then it

73:45

doesn't seem like any of them land so I

73:47

don't know I'm I'm still on my 72-hour

73:49

Trump rule which is whatever he says

73:51

wait 72 hours and and then maybe see if

73:54

it actually comes to pass where do you

73:56

stand on all these tariffs and tariff

73:58

talk well I think the tariffs will be a

74:00

plug are they coming absolutely the

74:02

Quantum of them I don't know and I think

74:04

that the way that you can figure

74:07

out how extreme it will be it'll be

74:11

based on what the legislative plan is

74:14

for the budget so there's two paths

74:15

right now path one which I think is a

74:17

little bit more likely is that they're

74:19

going to pass a slim down plan in the

74:21

Senate just on border security and

74:24

Military spending and then they'll kick

74:27

the can down the

74:28

road for probably another three or four

74:31

months on the budget plan two is this

74:33

one big beautiful bill that's irking its

74:35

way through the

74:37

house and there they're proposing

74:39

trillions of dollars of cuts in that

74:42

mode you're going to need to raise

74:43

revenu somehow and especially if you're

74:46

giving away tax breaks and the only way

74:48

to do that is probably through tariffs

74:49

or one way to do it is through

74:51

tariffs my honest opinion Jason is that

74:53

I think we're in a very complicated

74:54

moment I think the Senate plan is

74:56

actually on the margins more likely and

74:59

better and the reason is because I think

75:01

that Trump is better off getting the

75:04

next 60 to 90 days of data I mean we're

75:07

in a real pickle here we have persistent

75:11

inflation we have a broken fed they are

75:16

totally asleep at the switch and the

75:18

thing that Yellen and Biden did which in

75:21

hindsight now was extremely dangerous is

75:25

they issued so much short-term paper

75:27

that in totality we have $1 trillion

75:30

dollar we need to finance in the next 6

75:32

to9 months so it could be the case

75:36

that we have rates that are like five

75:40

five and a quarter 5 a

75:42

half% I think that that's extremely bad

75:46

at the same time as inflation at the

75:48

same time as delinquencies are ticking

75:51

up so I think tariffs are probably going

75:55

to happen but I think that

75:58

Trump will have the most

76:01

flexibility if he has time to see what

76:05

the actual economic conditions will be

76:07

which will be more clear in 3 four five

76:10

months and so I almost think this big

76:12

beautiful bill is actually

76:13

counterproductive because I I'm not sure

76:14

we're gonna have all the data we need to

76:16

get it right fre B any thoughts on these

76:19

tariffs you've been involved in the

76:22

global uh Marketplace especially when it

76:24

comes to produce and wheat and all this

76:27

corn and everything what do you think

76:29

the dynamic here is going to be or is it

76:31

saber rattling and a tool for Trump the

76:35

biggest buyer of us a exports is China

76:38

China a exports are a major Revenue

76:42

Source major income source and a major

76:44

part of the economy for a large number

76:46

of states and so there will be as there

76:50

was in the first Trump presidency very

76:52

likely very large transfer payments made

76:55

Farmers because China is very likely

76:58

going to tariff Imports or stop making

77:01

import purchases altoe which is what

77:03

happened during the first presidency

77:05

when they did that the federal

77:06

government I believe had transfer

77:08

payments of north of $20 billion to

77:10

Farmers this is a not negligible sum and

77:13

it's a not- negligible economic effect

77:15

because there's then a Rippling effect

77:17

throughout the a economy so I think

77:18

that's one key thing that I've heard

77:20

folks talk about is the um the activity

77:23

that's going to be needed to support the

77:26

farm

77:27

economy as the US's biggest a customer

77:30

disappears in the early 20th century we

77:33

didn't have an income tax and the

77:34

federal revenue was almost entirely

77:36

dependent on tariffs when tariffs were

77:39

cut there was an

77:40

expectation that there would be a

77:42

decline in federal government revenue

77:44

but what actually happened is volume

77:45

went up so lower tariffs actually

77:48

increased trade increase the size of the

77:50

economies this is where a lot of

77:51

economists take their basis in hey guys

77:54

if we do these tariffs it's actually

77:56

going to shrink the economy it's going

77:57

to cause a reduction in trade the

77:59

counterbalancing effect is one that has

78:01

not been tested in economics right which

78:03

is what's going to happen if

78:05

simultaneously we reduce the income tax

78:07

and reduce the corporate income tax and

78:10

basically increased Capital flows

78:12

through reduced taxation while doing the

78:15

Tariff implementation at the same time

78:17

so it's a grand economic experiment and

78:19

I think we'll learn a lot about what's

78:21

going to happen here as this all moves

78:22

forward I do think ultimately these

78:25

countries are going to capitulate to

78:26

some degree and we're going to end up

78:27

with some negotiated settlement that's

78:29

going to hopefully not be too short-term

78:32

impactful on the economies and the

78:33

people and the jobs that are dependent

78:35

on trade economy feels like it's in a

78:37

very precarious place it does to asset

78:41

holders obviously and obviously they've

78:43

left it in a bad place in the last

78:44

Administration and we shut down the

78:46

entire country for a year over Co the

78:48

bill for that has come due and that's

78:50

reflected inflation I I think there are

78:52

a couple other points in tariffs first

78:54

is it's it's not just about money it's

78:56

also about making sure we have

78:57

functional middle class with good jobs

78:59

because if you have a non-tariff world

79:01

maybe all the gains go to the upper

79:03

class and an underclass and then you

79:05

can't have a functioning democracy when

79:06

the average person is on one of those

79:08

two

79:09

extremes so I think that's one issue

79:11

another is strategic Industries if you

79:14

look at it today probably the largest

79:15

defense contractor in the world is DJI

79:18

they got all the drones even in Ukraine

79:20

both sides are getting all their drone

79:22

parts from DJI now they're getting it

79:23

through different supply chain chain and

79:25

so on but Ukrainian drones and Russian

79:27

drones the vast majority of them are

79:28

coming through China through DJI and we

79:31

don't have that industry if we have a

79:33

kinetic conflict right now and we don't

79:34

have good drone supply chain internally

79:37

in the US we're probably going to lose

79:39

because those things are autonomous

79:40

bullets that's the feature of all

79:42

Warfare we're buying f-35s and the

79:44

Chinese are building swarms of Nar scale

79:47

at scale so we do have to re onore those

79:50

critical Supply chains and what is a

79:52

drone supply chain it's not just there's

79:54

not thing called drone it's like Motors

79:56

and

79:57

semiconductors and Optics and lasers and

80:00

just everything across the board so I

80:02

think there are other good Arguments for

80:04

at least reshoring some of these

80:05

industries we need them and the the

80:08

United States is very lucky and that

80:09

it's very aaric we have all the

80:11

resources we have all the supplies we

80:13

can we can be Upstream of everybody with

80:14

all the energy to the extent we're

80:16

importing any energy that is a choice we

80:19

made that is not because fundamentally

80:21

we the energy yeah because of between

80:25

all the oil resources and the natural

80:27

gas and fracking combined with all the

80:30

work we've done in nuclear fishing and

80:31

small reactors we should absolutely be

80:33

energy independ we should be running the

80:35

table on it we should we should have AB

80:37

a massive Surplus and hey you know if

80:39

you if you're worried about you know

80:41

couple of million of door Dash Uber

80:43

drivers losing their jobs to automation

80:45

like hey there's going to be factories

80:47

to build these parts for these drones

80:50

that we're going to need so there

80:52

there's a lot of opportunity I guess for

80:53

people and there is a difference between

80:55

different kinds of jobs those kinds of

80:57

jobs are better jobs building difficult

81:00

things at scale physically that we need

81:03

for both National Security and for

81:05

Innovation th those are better jobs than

81:08

you know paperwork writing essays for

81:10

other people to read yeah or even

81:12

driving cars all right listen I want to

81:13

get to two more stories here we have a

81:15

really interesting copyright story that

81:18

I wanted to touch on Thompson Reuters

81:19

just won the first major US AI copyright

81:22

case and fair use played a major role in

81:25

this decision this has huge implications

81:28

for AI companies here in the United

81:30

States obviously open Ai and the New

81:33

York Times Getty Images versus stability

81:36

we've talked about these but it's been a

81:37

little while because the legal system

81:40

takes a little bit of time and these are

81:41

very

81:42

complicated cases as we've talked about

81:45

Thompson Reuters owns Westlaw if you

81:47

don't know that it's kind of like Lexus

81:49

Nexus it's one of the the legal

81:51

databases out there that lawyers use to

81:53

to find cases Etc uh and they have a

81:56

paid product with summaries and Analysis

81:58

of legal decisions back in

82:00

2020 this is two years before chat GPT

82:03

reuter sued a legal research competitor

82:05

called Ross for copyright infringement

82:07

Ross had created an AI powered legal

82:09

search engine sounds great but Ross had

82:12

asked Westlaw if they would pay a

82:14

license to its content for training

82:15

wesla said no this all went back and

82:18

forth and then Ross signed a similar

82:20

deal with a company called Legal ease

82:22

the problem is legal E's database was

82:24

just cop copied and pasted from a bunch

82:26

of Westlaw answers so Reuters Westlaw

82:28

sued Ross in 2020 accusing the company

82:31

of being vicariously liable for legal

82:33

eases direct infringement super

82:35

important Point anyway the judge

82:37

originally favored Ross in fair use this

82:40

week the judge reversed this ruling and

82:42

found Ross liable noting that after

82:44

further review fair use does not apply

82:46

in this case this is the first major win

82:51

and uh we debated this so here's a clip

82:53

you know you heard it here first on the

82:55

all-in Pod what I would say is you know

82:57

when you look at that fair use Doctrine

83:00

I've got a lot of experience with it you

83:01

know the fourth Factor test I'm sure

83:03

you're well aware of this is the effect

83:04

of the use on the potential market and

83:06

the value of the work if you look at the

83:08

lawsuits that are starting to emerge it

83:10

is Getty's right to then make derivative

83:13

products based on their images I think

83:15

we would all agree stable diffusion when

83:17

they use these open web that is no

83:19

excuse to use an open web crawler to

83:22

avoid getting a license from the

83:23

original own owner of that just because

83:25

you can technically do it doesn't mean

83:26

you're allowed to do it in fact the open

83:28

Web projects that provide these say

83:30

explicitly we do not give you the right

83:32

to use this you have to then go read the

83:35

copyright laws on each of those websites

83:37

and on top of that if somebody were to

83:39

steal the copyrights of other people put

83:41

it on the open web which is happening

83:42

all day long you still if you're

83:44

building a derivative work like this you

83:46

still need to go get it so it's no

83:48

excuse that I took some site in Russia

83:50

that did a bunch of copyright violation

83:52

and then I indexed them for my training

83:53

model so I've think this is going to

83:55

result fre free can you shoot me in the

83:57

face and let me know when this

84:00

okay oh great I feel same way same way

84:05

now exactly I know me too yeah okay good

84:08

good segment let's move

84:09

on well since these guys don't give a

84:11

about copyright holders what do you

84:13

think about uh you know I'm so glad

84:16

you're here nval to actually talk about

84:18

the topics these two other guys I'm

84:20

going go thinner limb I'm going to go

84:22

and even thinner Limb and say I largely

84:23

agree with you I think it's a bit Rich

84:25

to crawl the open web Hoover up all the

84:27

data offer direct substitution for a lot

84:29

of use cases because you know now you

84:30

start and end with the AI model it's not

84:32

even like you link out like Google did

84:34

and then you just close off the models

84:35

for safety reasons I think if you

84:37

trained on the open web your model

84:38

should be open source yeah absolutely

84:41

that would be a fine thing I have a

84:43

prediction here I think this is all

84:44

going to wind up wind up like the Naps

84:46

or Spotify case for people who don't

84:49

know Spotify pays I think 65 cents on

84:52

the dollar to the original Underwriters

84:55

of of that content the music industry

84:58

and they figured out a way to make a

84:59

business and Napster is roadkill I think

85:03

that there is a nonzero chance like it

85:05

might be five or 10% that opening eye is

85:08

going to lose the New York Times lawsuit

85:10

and they're going to lose it hard and

85:11

there going to be injunctions and I

85:12

think it's the settlement might be that

85:15

these language models especially the

85:16

closed ones are going to have to pay

85:17

some

85:19

percentage in a negotiated settlement of

85:21

their revenue half 2/3 to the content

85:26

holders and this could make the content

85:29

industry have a massive massive uplift

85:32

and a and a and a massive Resurgence I

85:35

think that the problem there's an

85:37

example on the other side of this which

85:39

is that there's a company that provides

85:41

technical support for Oracle third party

85:44

company and Oracle has tried times to

85:47

soo them into Oblivion using copyright

85:49

infringement as part of the

85:51

justification and it's been a PA over

85:54

the stock for a long time the company's

85:55

name is riny Street don't ask me why I

85:58

it's on my radar but I just I've been

86:00

looking at it and they lost this huge

86:03

lawsuit Oracle one and then it went to

86:05

appella court and then it was all

86:07

vacated why am I bringing this up I

86:10

think that the legal Community has

86:12

absolutely no idea how these models work

86:14

because you can find one case that goes

86:16

one way and one case that goes the other

86:18

and what I would say should become

86:21

standard reading for anybody bringing in

86:24

of these lawsuits there's an Incredible

86:26

video that carpath just dropped that

86:28

Andre just dropped where he does like

86:31

this deep dive into llms and he explains

86:33

chat GPT from the ground up it's on

86:36

YouTube it's three hours it's excellent

86:40

and it's very difficult to watch that

86:43

and not get to the same conclusion that

86:45

you guys did I'll just leave it at that

86:47

H I tend to agree with this there's also

86:50

a good old video by ilas sover where he

86:53

he was a I believe the founding Chief

86:54

scientist or CTO of open Ai and he talks

86:57

about how these these large language

86:59

models are basically extreme

87:01

compressors and he models them entirely

87:04

as their ability to compress and they're

87:05

L com compression exactly lossy L

87:08

compression exactly exactly and Google

87:10

got sued for fair use back in the day

87:13

but the way they managed to get past the

87:15

argument was they were always linking

87:16

back to you they showed tiny sent you

87:18

the traffic they sent you the traffic

87:20

this is lossy compression it is

87:22

absolutely I'm now on your p i I hate to

87:25

say this

87:28

Jason I agree with you you were you were

87:33

right you were right that's all I wanted

87:36

to hear all these years that's all I

87:39

wanted shaking my head when I saw those

87:42

videos cuz I was like oh man Jason was

87:43

right Jason was right oh my God no I

87:46

just I've been through this so many

87:48

times that these I think this is you

87:50

know rer Murdoch said we should hold the

87:54

line with Google and not allow them to

87:57

index our content without a license and

87:59

Google navigated it successfully and and

88:02

they were able to to not get him to stop

88:04

I think what's happened now is that the

88:08

New York Times remembers that they they

88:09

all remember losing their content and

88:13

these Snippets and the one box to Google

88:16

and they couldn't get that Genie back in

88:18

the bottle I think the New York Times

88:19

realizes this is their payday I think

88:22

the New York Times will make more money

88:24

from licenses from llms then they will

88:27

make from advertising or subscriptions

88:30

eventually this will renew the model

88:32

almost I think the New York Times

88:34

content is worthless to an llm but

88:36

that's a different story I think the

88:37

actual Val cont political reason

88:39

whatever but I can tell you as a user I

88:42

loved the wire cutter I think you knew

88:44

Brian and everybody over the wire cutter

88:45

we that was like fair enough yeah wire

88:47

cutter what a great product I used to

88:50

pay for the New York Times I no longer

88:51

pay for the New York Times my main

88:52

reason was I would go to the wire cut

88:54

yeah and I would just buy whatever they

88:56

told me to buy now I go to chat gbt

88:59

which I pay

89:01

forb tells me what to buy based on the

89:04

wire cutter so it's it and I'm already

89:06

paying for it so I stop paying for it I

89:08

philosophically disagree with all of

89:10

your nonsense on this topic all three of

89:13

you are wrong and I'll tell you why

89:16

number one if information is out in the

89:18

open internet I I believe it's

89:21

accessible and it's viewable and I view

89:23

an llm or a WebCrawler as basically

89:25

being a human that's reading and can

89:28

store information in its brain can if

89:29

it's out there in the open if it's

89:30

behind a pay wall 100% if it's behind

89:32

some protected password wait wait wait

89:35

wait David David in that in that case

89:37

can a Google crawler just crawl entire

89:39

site and serve it on Google why can't

89:41

they do that there so here here's the

89:44

fair use the fair use is you cannot copy

89:46

you cannot repeat the content you cannot

89:48

take the content and repeat it that is

89:50

how the law is currently written but now

89:52

what I have is I have a tool that that

89:54

can remix it with 50 other pieces of

89:56

similar content and I can change the

89:58

words slightly and maybe even translate

89:59

into a different language so where does

90:00

it stop do you know the musical artist

90:02

girl talk we should have done a girl

90:04

talk track here today he's got musical

90:07

taste this guy oh good here we go he

90:10

basically take takes small samples of

90:12

popular tracks and he made and he got

90:14

sued for the same problem there was

90:16

another guy named white panda I believe

90:18

had the same problem Ed Sharon got sued

90:20

for this yeah but but their entire sites

90:22

like stack Overflow and Wiki that have

90:24

basically disappeared now because you

90:25

can just swallow them all up and you can

90:27

just spit it all back out in chat GPT

90:29

with slight changes so I I think that

90:31

the the the fair how much of a slight

90:33

change is exactly the right question how

90:36

much are you changing yeah so that's the

90:37

question are and it actually boils down

90:39

to the AGI question are these things

90:41

actually intelligent and are they

90:42

learning or are they compressing and

90:44

regurgitating that's the question I

90:45

wonder this about humans and that's why

90:47

I bring up the white panda the girl talk

90:49

in audio but also visual art there was

90:51

always artists and all even in classical

90:53

music I don't know if you guys are

90:54

classical music people but right there

90:56

was there's a demonstration of how you

90:59

know one composer learned from the next

91:01

and that you can actually track the

91:03

music as kind of being standing on the

91:05

shoulders of the prior and the same is

91:07

true in almost all art forms in almost

91:09

all human knowledge and Media

91:11

communication it's very hard to figure

91:13

that out well that's exactly right

91:14

that's the hard it's very hard to figure

91:15

that out which is why I come back to

91:17

there's only one of two stable solutions

91:19

to this and it's going to happen anyway

91:21

if we don't crawl it the Chinese will

91:22

crawl it right deep seek prove that so

91:24

there's only one of two stable Solutions

91:26

either you pay the copyright holders

91:28

which I actually think doesn't work and

91:30

the reason is because someone in China

91:32

will crawl it and they just dump the

91:33

weights right so they can just crawl and

91:34

com and dump the compressed weights or

91:37

if you crawl make it open at least

91:40

contribute something back to open source

91:42

right you crawled open data contributed

91:44

back to open source and the people who

91:46

don't want to be crawled they're going

91:48

to have to go to a huge length to

91:49

protect their data now everybody knows

91:51

to protect the data yeah well

91:55

thing is happening here I have a book

91:57

out from Harper business on the shelf

92:00

behind me and uh I'm getting 2500

92:03

smackaroos for the next three years for

92:05

uh Microsoft indexing it so they're

92:07

going out and they're licensing this

92:08

stuff and um they're going $2500 so your

92:12

book literally I'm getting $2,500 for

92:14

three years a bunch of Harper to go into

92:17

an llm to go into Microsoft specifically

92:20

and you know what I'm going to sign it I

92:22

decided because I just want to set the

92:23

precedent maybe next time it's 10,000

92:26

maybe next time it's 250 I don't care I

92:27

just want to see people have their

92:29

content respected and I'm just hoping

92:32

that Sam wman loses this lawsuit and

92:33

they get an injunction against it hey uh

92:36

well just because he's just such a

92:38

weasel in terms of like making open AI

92:42

into a Clos thing I mean I like Sam

92:43

personally but I think what he did was

92:45

like the super weasel move of all time

92:48

for his own personal benefit If he if he

92:50

and this whole lying like oh I have no

92:52

equity I get healthare he does it no bro

92:55

he does it he does it for the love what

92:58

what was the statement he does it for

92:59

the I do it for the Jo benefit out of

93:02

the benefits I think he got Healthcare I

93:04

think in opena defense they do need to

93:06

raise a lot of money and they got to

93:07

incent their employees but that doesn't

93:10

mean they need to take over the whole

93:11

thing that the nonprofit portion can

93:13

still stay the nonprofit portion and get

93:15

the Lions share the benefits and be the

93:17

board and then he can have an incentive

93:19

package and employees can have an

93:20

incentive package why don't they get a

93:22

percentage of the revenue just AB I

93:24

don't understand has to be bought out

93:27

right now for 40 billion and then the

93:28

whole thing disappears into a closed

93:30

system that part makes no sense to me

93:32

that's called a shell game and a scam

93:35

yeah I think Sam and his team would do

93:36

better to leave the nonprofit part alone

93:39

leave an actual independent nonprofit

93:41

board in charge and then have a strong

93:43

incentive plan and a strong fundraising

93:45

plan for the investors and the employees

93:47

so I think this is workable it's just

93:49

trying to grab it all just seems way off

93:51

especially when it was built on open

93:53

algorithms for Google open data from the

93:55

web and nonprofit funding from Elon and

93:57

others I mean what a great proposal like

94:00

we just workshopped here what if they

94:02

just what do they make six billion a

94:03

year just take 10% of it 600 million

94:06

every year and that goes into uh a bonus

94:09

they're losing money Jason so they have

94:11

to okay eventually they no but even

94:13

Equity they could they could give Equity

94:14

to the people building it but they could

94:16

still leave it in the control of the

94:18

nonprofit I just don't understand this

94:20

conversion I mean there was a there was

94:21

a board coup right the board tried to

94:23

fire

94:24

took now it's

94:26

hispi selfing right and yeah they'll get

94:29

an independent valuation but we all know

94:31

that game you hire valuation expert

94:32

who's going to say what you're going to

94:33

say and they'll check box if you're

94:35

going to capture the life cone of all

94:37

future value or build super intelligence

94:39

that's worth a lot more that's why Elon

94:41

just spit 100 billion exactly you're

94:42

saying you're saying the things that

94:44

actually The Regulators and and the

94:46

legal Community have no Insight because

94:48

they'll see a fairness opinion and they

94:50

think oh it says fairness and opinion

94:52

two words side by side it must be

94:54

and they don't know how all of this

94:56

stuff is gamed so yeah yeah I man I got

95:00

stories about 409a that would

95:03

exactly 49a are gamed these fairness

95:06

opinions are gamed but the the reality

95:09

is I don't think the legal and the

95:10

judicial Community has any idea I mean

95:13

imagine if a Founder you invested in

95:15

just is just a total imaginary situation

95:17

nval had like a great term sheet at some

95:20

incredible dollar amount didn't take it

95:23

ran the valuation down to like under a

95:25

million gave themselves a bunch of

95:27

shares and then took it three months

95:29

later I don't know what would that be

95:32

called Securities for wrap yeah let's

95:34

wrap on your story I had an interesting

95:36

Nick we'll show you the photo I had an

95:39

interesting dinner on Monday with Brian

95:40

Johnson the don't die guy came over to

95:42

my house how's his erection doing

95:44

overnight what we talked about is he's

95:46

got three hours a night of nighttime

95:50

erections wow look at this by the way

95:52

first of all I'll tell you I think that

95:55

I I think that he's um wait which

95:57

one of those is giving him the erection

95:59

no no no he measures his nighttime

96:01

erection I think has given him the

96:03

erection or he but he said he said that

96:05

when he started so by the way he said

96:07

he's he was 43 when he started this

96:09

thing he was basically clinically obese

96:13

yeah and in these next four years has

96:15

become a specimen he now has 3 hours a

96:17

night of nighttime erections but that's

96:19

not the interesting thing at the end of

96:21

this dinner by the way his skin is in I

96:24

I was not sure because when you see the

96:25

pictures online but his skin in real

96:28

life is like a porcelain dolls I've both

96:31

my wife and I were like we've never seen

96:33

skin like this and it's incredibly soft

96:35

wait wait wait whoa whoa whoa how do you

96:37

know skin is soft you know you brush

96:39

your hand against his forearm or

96:40

whatever you know gives a hug at the end

96:42

of the night I'm telling you the guy

96:44

skin is had Supple skin bro it's the

96:46

softest skin I've ever touched in my

96:48

life anyways that's not the

96:51

point it was really fascinating din he

96:54

walked through his whole protocol but at

96:56

the end of it I think it was Nash the

96:58

CEO ofo alter networks he was just like

97:00

give me the top three things top three

97:03

and of the top three things what I'll

97:06

boil it down to is the top one thing

97:08

which is like 80% of the

97:11

80% it's all about sleep I was about to

97:14

guess sleep and he walked through his

97:17

nighttime routine and it's incredible

97:18

and it's straightforward it's really

97:20

simple it's like how you do a wind down

97:22

anyways I have tried to explain the wind

97:25

down briefly let's just say that because

97:27

Brian goes to bed much earlier so our

97:29

normal time let's just say you know 10

97:30

10:30 so my time I try to go to bed by

97:32

10:30 he's like you need to be in bed

97:35

you need to first of all stop eating

97:36

three or four hours before right and I

97:39

do that I eat at 6:30 so I have about 3

97:42

hours you're in bed by 9:30 or

97:45

10 you deal with the selft talk right

97:48

like okay here's the active mind telling

97:50

you all the things you have to fix in

97:51

the morning talk it out put it in its

97:54

place say I'm gonna deal with this in

97:55

the morning write it down in a journal

97:57

you're saying whatever you do so that

97:59

you put it away you cannot be on your

98:01

phone that's got to be in a different

98:03

room it's or you just got to be able to

98:05

shut it down and then read a book so

98:07

that you're actually just engaged in

98:09

something and and and he said that he

98:12

typically falls asleep within three to

98:14

four minutes of getting into bed and

98:16

starting this what I tried it so I've

98:19

been doing it since I had dinner with

98:20

him on Monday last night I fell asleep

98:22

within 50 minutes H the hardest part for

98:26

me is to put the phone away I can't do

98:28

it of course of course what about youal

98:30

tell us your one down oh yeah I know so

98:32

I know I know Brian pretty well actually

98:34

and I joke that I'm married to the

98:35

female Brian Johnson because my wife has

98:38

some of his routines but she's like the

98:40

natural version no supplements and she's

98:43

intense and I think when Brian saw my

98:46

sleep score from my eight sleep he was

98:51

shot he was he he was just like you're

98:52

going to die he's like you're literally

98:54

going to die well you got 70 80 no it's

98:56

ter it's terrible it's awful but it's

98:58

tell what's your number what's your

98:59

number it like in 30s 40s but you know

99:02

yeah but it's also because I don't sleep

99:04

much I only sleep a few hours a night

99:05

and I also move around a lot in the bed

99:07

and so on but it's fine I I never have

99:09

trouble falling asleep but I I would say

99:11

that Brian's yes skincare routine is

99:13

amazing his diet is incredible he is a

99:16

genuine character I do think a lot of

99:18

what he's saying minus the supplements

99:20

I'm not a big believer in supplements

99:22

yeah does work

99:23

I don't know if it's necess going to

99:25

slow down your aging but you'll look

99:26

good you'll feel good yeah sleep is the

99:28

number one thing in terms of falling

99:30

asleep I don't think it's really about

99:32

whether you look at your phone or not

99:34

believe it or not I think it's about

99:35

what you're doing on your phone if

99:37

you're doing anything that is

99:38

cognitively stressful or getting your

99:40

mind to spin then yes you think you can

99:43

scroll Tik Tok and fall asleep is fine

99:46

anything that's entertaining or that is

99:49

uh like you could read a book right on

99:51

your Kindle or on your iPad and I think

99:53

it'd be fine falling asleep or you can

99:55

listen to like some meditation video or

99:57

some spiritual teacher or something and

99:58

that'll actually help you fall asleep

100:00

but if you're on X or if you're checking

100:02

your email then heck yeah that's going

100:04

to keep you up so my hack for sleep is a

100:07

little different I normally fall sleep

100:09

within minutes and the way I do it is I

100:13

you all have a

100:14

meditation you have a set time no no I

100:16

sleep whenever I feel like usually

100:17

around 1 in the morning two in the

100:18

morning God damn I'm in bed by 10 yeah I

100:21

need to sleep I'm an owl but if you want

100:24

to fall asleep the hack I found is

100:26

everybody has tried some kind of a

100:28

meditation routine just sit in bed and

100:30

meditate and your mind will hate

100:33

meditation so much that if you force it

100:35

to choose between the fork of meditation

100:37

and sleeping you will fall asleep every

100:39

time well okay so after if you don't

100:41

fall asleep you'll end up meditating

100:42

which is great too so just I like the

100:45

meditation do the body scan the coda to

100:47

this story was a friend a friend of mine

100:49

came to see me from from the UAE and he

100:52

was here on Tuesday and I was telling

100:53

him about the dinner with Brian and he

100:55

told me the story cuz he's friends with

100:57

kabib the UFC fighter and he says you

101:00

know when kib goes to his house he eats

101:02

anything and everything fried food pizz

101:05

whatever but he trains

101:07

consistently and my friend adala says

101:10

how are you able to do that and how does

101:12

it not affect your physiology goes I've

101:14

learned since I was a kid I sleep 3

101:17

hours after I train in the morning and I

101:19

sleep 10 hours at night and I've done it

101:20

since I was like 12 or 13 years old

101:23

that's a lot of sleep it's a lot of

101:25

sleep I you know the direct correlation

101:28

for me is if I uh do something

101:31

cognitively like you know big heavy duty

101:34

conversations or whatever so no heavy

101:36

conversations at the end of the night no

101:38

existential conversations the night and

101:41

then if I go rucking I have the you know

101:43

on the ranch I put on a 35b weight vest

101:45

I walk you do that at night before you

101:47

go to bed no no no if I do it anytime

101:48

during the day I typically do it in the

101:50

morning or the afternoon but the 1 to2

101:52

mile Ruck with the 35 lbs whatever it is

101:54

it Just Tires my whole body out so that

101:57

when I do lay down is that why you don't

102:00

prepare for the

102:02

podt you know I mean this pot is the top

102:06

10 pot in the world Chim do you think

102:09

it's an accident freeberg what's your

102:10

what's your sleep routine can you just

102:12

go to bed you just like warm bath and I

102:15

send J Calli a picture of my feet I'll

102:18

wait till jal's done I do take a nice

102:21

warm bath

102:23

it but you do you do it every night a

102:25

warm bath I do yeah I do a warm bath

102:27

every night with candles too and do you

102:30

do it right before you go to bed yeah I

102:32

usually do it after I put the kids down

102:34

and I'll basically start to wind down

102:35

for bed I do watch TV sometimes but I do

102:38

have the problem and the mistake of

102:40

looking at my phone probably for too

102:41

long before I turn the lights off so do

102:44

you have a consistent time where you go

102:45

to bed or

102:47

no usually 11:00 to midnight and then up

102:51

at 6:30

102:54

man I I need I need eight hours

102:55

otherwise I'm a mess I go to I'm trying

102:57

to get eight I hit between 600 and seven

102:59

consistently I try to go to bed that 11:

103:01

to 1:00 a.m. window and get up the 7 to

103:04

8 window my problem is if I have work to

103:06

do I'll get on the computer or my laptop

103:08

and then when I start that after in my

103:11

evening routine I can't stop and then

103:13

all of a sudden it's like 3 in the

103:14

morning and I'm like oh no what did I

103:15

just do and then I still have to get up

103:17

at 6:30 so that does happen to me so

103:20

last night was unusual for me but it was

103:21

kind of funny anyway I thought oh I

103:23

should go to bed early cuz I'm an Allin

103:25

yeah but I ended up eating ice cream

103:28

with the kids

103:30

late wait what was the brand you said

103:32

you went for another brand I want to

103:33

know the brand I think it's van Luen or

103:35

something like

103:37

that New York

103:39

and the holiday cookies and cream oh my

103:42

God so good yeah it's so good so after I

103:44

polish that off then I was like oh I

103:46

probably ate too much to go to bed so I

103:48

better work out so I did a kettle bell

103:51

workout you sound like Mo what did you

103:54

say I have eight kettle bells right here

103:57

right next

103:58

to free this is called working out

104:02

fre and then while I'm doing my

104:04

kettlebell suitcase carry I was texting

104:07

with an entrepreneur friend so you can

104:09

tell how intense my workout was and he's

104:11

in Singapore so it was in the middle of

104:13

the night for me and early for him and

104:15

was time to go to bed I was like I was

104:17

like okay now I got to get to bed how do

104:19

I get to bed I'm my body is all amped up

104:21

I've got food in my stomach

104:24

Bells my brain is all my brain is all

104:26

amped up and all in podcast is tomorrow

104:29

and what time is it's 1:30 in the

104:30

morning I better get to bed so I I put

104:33

on like a little one of those spiritual

104:35

videos to calm me down and then I just

104:38

and then I got in bed and I was like

104:40

there's no way I'm falling asleep and I

104:42

started meditating and 5 minutes later I

104:44

was asleep you know actually the dolly

104:46

Lama has these great on his YouTube

104:48

channel he's got these great like 2hour

104:50

discussions you get about 20 30 minutes

104:53

into that you will fall asleep well yeah

104:55

my but my learning is yeah watch any

104:57

Dharma lecture from the SS exactly and

105:00

my my lesson is my learning is that the

105:03

mind will do anything to avoid

105:05

meditation yeah yes by the way did you

105:08

guys see just before we W did you see

105:09

all the confirmations RFK Jr confirmed

105:12

Brook rolands confirmed by the way if

105:14

you look at Poly Market poly Market had

105:16

it all right a couple weeks ago like I

105:18

was TR Market there was a moment where

105:21

fell to like 56% there was a moment when

105:24

RFK fell to 75% but then they bounced

105:26

back and it was done could you got snip

105:28

that man you could have made money yeah

105:31

and the media the media was like no way

105:32

he's getting confirmed this is not going

105:34

to happen but poly Market knows it's so

105:35

interesting huh well I saw a very

105:38

insightful tweet and I forget who wrote

105:40

it so I'm sorry I can't give credit but

105:42

the guy basically said look Trump has a

105:45

narrow majority in the house and the

105:48

Senate yeah and he can get everything he

105:50

wants as long as a Republicans stay in

105:52

line so all the pressure and all the

105:54

anger that all the mega movement is

105:57

doing against the left is pointless it's

106:00

all about keeping the rightwing in line

106:03

so it's all the people saying to the

106:05

Senators hey I'm going to primary you

106:07

Nicole Shanahan saying I'm going to

106:08

primary you it's Scott Pressler saying

106:10

I'm moving to your District that's the

106:12

stuff that's moving the needle and

106:14

causing the confirmations to go through

106:15

that's how you get cash Patel that's how

106:17

you get toy gabber the dni that's how

106:19

you get RF you worry about any of these

106:22

you think any of them are are too spicy

106:23

for your taste or you just like the

106:25

whole burn it down put in the crazy like

106:29

Outsiders that's such a bad

106:31

characterization that's not a fair

106:32

characterization mean the out honestly

106:34

it's like I never thought I'd see it but

106:36

I think between Elon and sax and people

106:38

like that we actually have Builders and

106:40

doers and financially intelligent people

106:42

and economically intelligent people in

106:44

charge and you know despite all the

106:46

craziness elon's not doing this for the

106:47

money he's doing it because he thinks

106:49

it's the right thing to

106:50

do he moved into the Roosevelt

106:53

I I think like many of us I had I had

106:55

bought into the great forces of History

106:57

mindset where it's just like okay it's

106:59

inevitable this is what's happening

107:00

government always gets bigger always

107:02

gets slower and we just have to try and

107:04

get stuff built before they just shut

107:06

everything down and we turn into Europe

107:08

but the thing that happened then was you

107:10

know Caesar crossed crossed the Rubicon

107:11

the great man theory of History played

107:14

out and we're living in that time and

107:16

it's it's an inspiration to all of us

107:17

despite Sam Alman and elon's current

107:20

fighting I know Sam was inspired by Elon

107:22

at one point and I think all of us are

107:24

inspired by Elon I mean the guy can be

107:26

the Diablo player and do Doge and run

107:29

SpaceX and Tesla and boring and neural

107:32

link I mean it's incredibly impressive

107:33

it makes us that's why I'm doing a

107:34

hardware company now it makes me want to

107:36

do something useful with my life you

107:37

know Elon always makes me question am I

107:40

doing something useful enough with my

107:42

life it's why I don't want to be an

107:43

investor you know Peter te ironically

107:45

he's an investor but he's inspirational

107:47

that way too because he like yeah the

107:48

future just doesn't just happen you have

107:51

to go make it so you know we get to go

107:53

make the future and I'm just glad that

107:55

Elon and Doge and others are making the

107:56

future thatare what the what do we got

107:58

going on here maybe I'll all in podcast

108:01

in a couple of months but it's really

108:03

it's really difficult I'm not sure I can

108:04

pull it off so let me try let me just

108:06

make sure it's viable is it drone

108:07

related is it self-driving drone drones

108:09

are cool but no it's not maybe podcast

108:12

should be an angel investor oh yes

108:16

absolutely no no Syndicate Jason just

108:18

our Mone what are you talking about you

108:20

know how I learned about syndicates was

108:21

Nal the first syic I ever did on

108:24

angelist I think is still the biggest I

108:26

don't know 5% and Nal is my partner on

108:29

this for.com I think you'll love what

108:32

I'm working on if I pull it off I think

108:34

you guys will love it i' love to show

108:35

your demo let us know where to send the

108:37

check get that black cherry chip van

108:39

Leen I love you guys what have we

108:40

learned I gotta go okay big shout out to

108:43

Bobby and to Tulsa that's a huge huge

108:45

huge room for America I'm stoked about

108:47

both of them congratulations I love me

108:51

thanks for coming

108:55

let's get bobbyy Bobby come back on the

108:57

Pod four thear David Sachs your sulan of

109:02

science David freeberg the chairman

109:05

dictator chamath P hatita

109:09

POA and Namaste N I am the world's

109:14

greatest moderator we'll see you next

109:15

time on the all in pond say

109:19

byebye let your winners ride

109:23

Rainman

109:26

David and instead we open source it to

109:29

the fans and they've just gone crazy

109:31

with it love you queen

109:35

[Music]

109:39

of Besties

109:42

are that's my dog taking your

109:45

[Music]

109:47

driveways oh man myit will meet me at we

109:51

should all just get a room and just have

109:52

one big huge orgy cuz they're all this

109:54

usess it's like this like sexual tension

109:56

that they just need to release

109:58

[Music]

110:03

somehow we need to get mer

110:09

[Music]

110:13

our I'm going all in

Interactive Summary

Naval Ravikant discusses the success of the All-In podcast, attributing it to the dynamic of multiple intelligent hosts having fun. He reflects on his career evolution from investor to builder, including his journey with AngelList and his new venture into hardware. Naval also shares the origins of his popular philosophical tweets, linking them to a period of high stress while dealing with the SEC. The podcast delves into his unique parenting philosophy, emphasizing agency and freedom for children. A significant portion of the discussion covers JD Vance's optimistic stance on AI, advocating for American dominance and reduced regulation, contrasting with the prevailing focus on AI safety. This leads to a broader debate on AI's impact on jobs, the risks of centralization, and the role of open source. The conversation then shifts to the legal implications of AI with a recent copyright case and the potential for content creators to license their work. Finally, the hosts touch on personal well-being, highlighting Brian Johnson's longevity protocol and the crucial role of sleep, with Naval sharing his own unconventional sleep hack.

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