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from New York Times opinion this is the

Ezra Klein

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show so we are talking on Friday morning

it's March 8th it is the morning after

Joe Biden State of the Union which was

rockus enthusiastic Affair and we

thought we'd do a kind of bigger picture

episode talking through bit of State of

the Union and more broadly what the

state of the union was beginning to

preview which is what Joe Biden's second

term would look like what his pitch in

20124 for that second term will look

like and then what actually that second

term will look like which I've also been

doing a fair amount of separate

reporting on so I'm joined um as I often

am in these days by my illustrious

editor Aon reica Ain thank you for being

here you're welcome so where do you want

to begin well the audience can't see it

but I have brought you a replica of a

medieval hair shirt to wear to mortify

yourself after the State of the Union

you know why but I'm going to ask you

about it anyway many people actually

were tweeting away and talking about how

the the Biden's performance during the

State of the Union was essentially a

reputation of your argument from a few

weeks ago that he should in fact step

aside from the campaign so could you

talk a little bit about how you felt

watching it and what you think about

that idea I mean the way I felt watching

it was excited to see Joe Biden giving a

really great state of the union I think

it would truly be like the height of

pundit egotism to be like the important

thing about this election is whether it

proves my prior takes right or wrong

look the the argument of that piece is

that at the time I wrote it Joe Biden

was not performing into the campaign way

well he was doing very little

campaigning doing very very few

interviews doing relatively few

appearances the ones he was doing were

turning out to be low energy Affairs

when he was going out to give that big

press conference it both did not go well

on its own terms and then he he badly

messed up the question of how to

reassure people about his memory they

were skipping things like the Super Bowl

interview and the argument of that piece

is that Biden was not showing that he is

up for this campaign and if he can't be

up for an aggressive campaign he should

not run

look if the Joe Biden we get is a Joe

Biden of the State of the Union because

that was genuinely I think an excellent

State of the Union it was surprising in

a bunch of different ways and we can

talk about them but it was very very

well delivered very high energy I've not

seen that Joe Biden in a while now why

he was so much better there than he's

been in a bunch of other formats I've

seen him including very structured

formats a campaign has set up for him I

mean go look at the kind of uh social

media Clips they' have been circulating

I don't really know and I don't really

care

the absolute best thing easiest thing

here is that Joe Biden kind of shook the

cobwebs off and is going to campaign

like that from here until November and

if he does that and in the end he beats

Donald Trump by five and people want to

say my piece was stupid and alarmist I

will happily say my piece was stupid and

alarmist and I was wrong and that would

be a a great outcome but it was really

quite good speech and Biden wasn't just

energized he was very very quick on his

feet and he had something I haven't seen

from him in a while which is something

I've associated with him throughout his

almost entire political career a kind of

Joy a happy warrior affect he seemed

delighted to be up there he seemed to be

having fun sparring with her Republicans

making fun of Lindsey Graham I mean it

was a very bare knuckled partisan State

of the Union for what that Affair

typically is but Biden didn't seem to be

plotting through it there was a a real

intense energy to him so there's a long

time between here and the election but I

hope that guy keeps showing up and what

I will say just from having

conversations even with top Democrat

since it is I think he at least for now

quieted a lot of the fears right people

needed to see a performance like that

from him and they did what's funny about

that is that the State of the Union last

year was supposed to be that moment they

were supposed to get crushed in the

midterms they did not get crushed in the

midterms he then did incredibly well in

the State of the Union in

2023 everyone calmed down then all the

questions started again now he's done

well in the State of the Union in

2024 what do you think they can do to

make that a more permanent change and

not just he's good when he goes to

Congress look I don't know Joe Biden the

way they know Joe Biden I don't really

understand the variance in his public

performance it isn't that people were

inventing the thing that happened

between the two state of the unions the

amount of conversation even among top

Democrats who were not talking about

this in public was very high people who

were out there with him saw him his

style was had become oftentimes very

listless what sometimes gets called low

energy and then he really really really

brought it last

night the reason I am not fully

comforted is an election is

long and what you're trying to both do

is Camp pain well at the median event

but also avoid things that become a

crystallizing moment of fears about you

and I don't know that having given a

good State of the Union fully comforts

me because I don't really kind of

understand what separates his good

performances from his bad ones that you

know nobody needs to worry anymore but I

think the thing he proved last night is

that he is still capable of extremely

high performance I mean the the argument

I made in that initial piece was not

that he's doing a poor job or not

capable of doing the president

but that lately he has not been proving

capable of Performing the presidency

performing The Campaign that the skills

you need as a campaigner are different

the thing he did in the State of the

Union which more than any state of the

union I've seen was a campaign speech I

mean this was much more of a campaign

speech than you typically get at that

particular event he showed the skills of

a campaigner and if he could keep

showing that then my piece was simply

wrong and I will happily own that so

there's been a tremendous amount of

chatter about Trump 2025 in our own

newspaper Maggie hberman and Charlie

Savage and Jonathan Swan have had an

incredible series about what they expect

his administration to look like our own

Carlos lzada had a great piece about

Heritage foundations project 2025

there's been comparatively little

discussion of Biden 2025 and that's

something that I really want to talk

about today there was not so much about

that last night there were pieces of it

little programs more like triangulation

type bit

but what do you see as the essential

elements of a Biden second

Administration as it looks now so I've

been doing a bunch of reporting about

this I was at the White House not long

ago talking to a bunch of people before

the State of the Union about what was

the agenda going to

be I was struck talking to people across

different issue areas how much the first

thing I heard was finish the job and in

a way that makes sense because if you

think about the major bills of Biden's

first term the inflation reduction act

the bipartisan infrastructure Bill the

chips and science act those are all long

multi-year efforts to change America's

built environment in one way or the

other and changing the built environment

as I report on a lot is slow goinging

particularly in this country and so I

mean the chips and science act one of

its core things it's doing is giving $39

billion to semiconductor manufacturing

firms to build Fabs the big fact iies

here that has just begin giving its

initial grants they've given only a tiny

fraction of the money the word is we're

going to be hearing more such

announcements soon so helping to oversee

that trying to clear uh Gene orando the

Secretary of Commerce has been trying to

get Congress to exempt these projects

from environmental permitting review she

says that'll add years which I think

raises a bunch of questions about what

should and should not go through

environmental permitting review but

trying to make that actually successful

that's a real project the IRA right I

mean that is trying to do a huge

upheaval of the built landscape some

parts of that are going really well we

are installing solar faster than we had

anticipated or hoped wind is coming in

well below expectations so solar is

faster wind is slower this question of

particularly offshore wind is proving to

be a problem trying to figure out how to

unkink that that's a lot of work

building that Nationwide EV charging

system which has not yet been built but

is funded in the ira that's a big

project then all of that needs to plug

into a grid that is actually giving you

not dirty energy from coal or certain

kinds of natural gas or whatever but is

giving you clean energy the IRA is not

going to hit its goals if they can't

figure out how to make it easier and

faster to build Interstate electricity

transmission lines if they aren't able

then to get that clean energy generated

from where it is generated to where the

car plugs in or where the heat pump

plugs in or where whatever it is plugs

in then you didn't solve the problem so

one thing that I think they are pretty

clear right about is a huge amount of

their agenda requires a huge amount of

implementation and oversight and if they

lost the White House they would not be

able to do that implementation and

oversight and in fact probably the Trump

administration number two would throw a

huge amount of sand in the gears of that

maybe roll it back all together so

that's a place where I actually do think

a lot of the second term agenda in their

minds has to do with making their first

term agenda into a success they pass the

bills but they have not actually yet

changed the built environment then there

are a couple other I think big pieces of

it you did hear Fairmount last night

about row or dos is is maybe the better

way to put it it is a little less clear

to me what they're actually promising

there so they say send us a bill to

kodao they don't have the votes for that

now right Republicans control the house

but even if they had control of the

House and Senate they're not going to

have the votes because you can't do that

in budget reconciliation so you need

either 60 votes to get around the

filibuster or you need 51 votes to get

rid of the filibuster or create a

filibuster exemption very very unlikely

Democrats have either of those things in

the Senate but simply by being there

they have something that that they will

lose if Donald Trump came into office

which is as we talked about on on the

last episode we did which is about the

way the different state policies on

abortion are colliding now there is a

huge amount of effort and it would go up

to the comp of the Trump Administration

if they won to make it illegal possibly

to even use but definitely to send these

abortion pills which have become the

dominant ways that abortions are

happening in the country and the reason

that dos has not led to quite the

Restriction in abortion access that its

proponents thought it would if Trump is

elected they have all kinds of plans to

do away with that including potentially

saying the FDA wrongly approved M A

Prestone when it was evaluated the first

time so long as Biden is there and is

appointing the FDA commissioner that's

not going to happen so that is in

practice a very big deal and then I

guess we we'll we'll talk about this but

Biden is not going to wrap up the major

foreign policy crisis or projects of his

presidency in his first term there's

going to be no end to Russia's invasion

of Ukraine it seems unlikely to me

they'll be able to execute the pivot

they want to execute on moving towards

this kind of grand deal where Israel

gets recognition from Saudi Arabia in

return for recognizing a Palestinian

State that's a much bigger project and

then there's of course the geostrategic

competition with China and so that would

be a huge part of a second term too and

all those things obviously were were big

parts of the

speech okay I'm going to take those one

at a time and just go in the order that

you did

implementation

Administration how do those become

transformation Obama famously criticized

Clinton for not transforming America at

the way Reagan had if Biden has 8 years

in office you know looking back from

Biden

2029 does the kind of work that you're

talking about finishing the job on the

chips act and Ira transform the

landscape of America so much that

actually he's literally transformed the

United States and so he will be thought

of that way and seen that way and have

done what he wants to do or is that even

though it's an enormous project too

small bore to actually change the way

the United States operates I think there

are two levels to this let's take level

one in the hypothetical where he wins a

second term and all these policies work

because that's an asterisk right but if

they do then yes I think so I mean take

Obama as the example here right Obama

wins two terms I don't think most people

can name very much

legislation passed in Obama second term

they did do some things I mean they had

a huge education Reform Bill which was

passed relatively quietly and and

mattered quite a bit um as a kind of

update and reauthorization and

transformation of No Child Left Behind

but I don't think people think that as

transformative what they think of as

transformative about Obama are things

like the Affordable Care Act the

Investments made during the stimulus the

dodf Frank Financial reforms I mean

those were all first-term bills I think

Biden is likely to look similarly I mean

one reason is the map for Democrats in

the Senate is just god- awful in 2024

even if Biden wins and does really well

it is a very tough road in a way that it

wasn't even in 2022 to keep the Senate

so they're going to lose the West

Virginia seat Joe Mansion is retiring

they're not going to keep that seed and

they have a bunch of other that brings

them just for clarity to 50 right that

would bring them to 50 testers got a win

they got a win in Nevada they have there

are a bunch of places Republicans could

easily pick up a seat and not many

places where Democrats could easily pick

up a seat so Democrats basically have to

run the table not completely impossible

but unlikely so that's one one mention

to this I do think though that if these

policies worked if at the end of Joe

Biden's second term you look around and

there is a nationwide like Coast to

Coast real electric vehicle charging

structure such you can truly have the

electric vehicle Revolution without

people being limited by range anxiety

and the feeling that they couldn't make

an interstate drive feeling safe about

it that's a very big deal if the

percentage of energy generated from

clean sources skyrockets that's actually

a very very big deal right and including

if solar and wind costs come down as

part of that if some of the the deeper

Investments they're making in things

like green hydrogen right they have a

lot of more Longshot Investments

happening in there they're trying to

decarbonize industrial buildings like

that isn't super sexy but if they are

able to build these Innovation hubs and

able to get these things moving and get

people using heat pumps all that is a

really big deal I mean in a very literal

way if they succeed the appliances that

people have in their homes are going to

be different they are going to have heat

pumps and not gas furnaces the cars they

have in their driveways are going to be

different right that would actually be

quite literally transformational and

then of course there's chips in science

which I mean I think the big thing

people know there if they know anything

is a semiconductor effort if we're able

to onshore advance semiconductor

manufacturing which is a very big if

that would be a huge deal right that

that is I think probably the single most

important and strategically critical

industry of the 21st Century

then you have the question of will all

this work and all of these to achieve

what they need to achieve still have

pretty big

roadblocks the way I would put this is

that Democrats have been very good at

addition and not very good at

subtraction Tyler Cowan who's a more

right-leaning Economist at at George

Mason University he had a good Bloomberg

column on this where where he was

skeptical he was saying it's too early

to know if biomics is going to work and

I thought his best line in that column

was what they have not done is really

any

deregulation and I do think that's true

so take chips and science they need a

huge amount of Workforce to make that

work we do not have enough people who

know how to do semiconductor the

manufacturing and building of

semiconductor facilities and so the ones

we are building are coming in way over

cost and are getting delayed and delayed

and delayed and we don't have enough

people who know how to run those

facilities they have all kinds of ideas

in the regulations they've built around

that to try to bring more women and and

and and minorities into construction

there they have ideas is about how to

train workforces and community colleges

and it's all laudible stuff but if you

want to serve the workforce problem fast

what you would do is create a Visa

pathway for skilled workers on these

issues from other countries like we

should just be bringing in a lot of

people from South Korea and Japan so you

could deregulate that and and bring

people in if you were able to get the

votes on it similarly the environmental

permitting is proving to be a very very

big problem on semiconductors again

Rondo is trying to get the house and the

sen to pass something exempting this

part of the bidin agenda from the

environmental bills like NEPA that

failed in the house they were not able

to get that done similarly the

permitting is a big problem on the

inflation reduction act they want to do

all of this building and all this

building which is built to help the

environment can all be sued under its

environmental impact I've done a huge

amount of reporting on this in recent

years it's a big theme of my my coming

book and I mean even something as simple

as congestion pricing in New York City

where you're just hanging sens ERS on

polls to charge cars for driving into

New York City that was tied up in years

of environmental assessment and so they

really do have a problem here one place

where I would ding the Biden

Administration is they've been hiding

behind other people in their effort to

address this they sort of hid behind Joe

mansion's proposals here right Mansion

was demanding this package and then they

put some stuff they liked into the

package then they tried to sort of do it

in this weird debt cealing deal what

they have never done what they did not

do at the State of the Union is come out

and say this is our agenda for building

back faster we have passed our agenda

for building back better here's how we

are going to do it faster here are the

ways we are going to unshackle

government to reach its goals more

quickly coalitionally that's very hard

for them it puts them crosswise with

environmental groups with various kinds

of social justice groups now you have

begun to see some movement here there

has been a movement among some house

Democrats to come up with a a permitting

Reform Bill of their own I think that

has some good aspects and and some not

as good aspects but that's interesting

right that's a moveie you haven't seen

really before Democrats beginning to

engage on this so yes if everything they

have passed worked I think that would be

remembered as genuinely

transformational whether the things they

have passed will

work that remains to be seen and is not

simply an as they will be the first to

tell you is not simply an outcome on

autopilot one thing that they're doing

the sort of stealth Roosevelt is having

programs that are not just one group or

another and the Republicans are always

trying to make it seem like this is for

climate lunatics or whatever but

actually the number of people who were

affected by this is in the hundreds of

thousands if not Millions for all of

these programs and they're not

specifically for the poor they're not

specifically for any particular group

and they more of a you know Rising tide

lift all boats kind of structure which I

think is interesting do you have

thoughts about the sort of politics of

that I don't think that is actually so

different I mean Obamacare was also a

race neutral bill and I think that

reflects how Clinton governed I think it

reflects how Obama governed and I think

it reflects how Joe Biden governed

inside these bills there is a lot of

effort to address certain kinds of

equity if you look inside the guts of

all of these proposals you'll find

things about how different bids are

getting evaluated and how different um

grants are getting given out and the

bonus addition on the money if you're

building this in a disadvantage

Community there's actually quite a lot

on that I think more than people realize

but that also goes backwards so I've

been doing a bunch of reporting for both

my book and for a piece on California

highspeed Rail and one of the things

people in California Wonder a lot about

is why did they start building this line

in the Central Valley Bakersfield to

mered which is currently all they have

any real plans to build or finish which

is not where you would build highspeed

rail the population centers are not

nearly dense enough to make that work

one of the reasons is that when the

calfor high speed rail Authority tried

to get that Federal money that Barack

Obama talked about a lot in the stimulus

and Barack Obama talked endlessly there

about High-Speed Rail across the country

but particularly in California as one of

the signature reinvestment dimensions of

the stimulus right one of the signature

projects but to actually apply for the

program wasn't just can you build some

highspeed rail it had these preferences

including for things that would handle

or clean up air pollution in

disadvantaged communities and so if you

wanted to look for where you had really

bad air pollution near disadvantaged

Community you're looking at things like

Fresno California and so the actual

money that came from the feds in the

stimulus was in a way people did not

realize actually not just for High-Speed

Rail but was to also hit these other

Equity markers and so that led to them

beginning this build in a place that in

terms of the political economy of it

doesn't make a ton of sense there are

other things that might be good about it

like it's a little bit flatter and

straighter for you to test your trains

but it's a I think politically a huge

problem for highspeed rail that it has

started in the politically weakest part

of California you know you got a

high-speed rail near La it's like great

you have it from Bakersfield to Merced

people like why inside these bills there

is a lot of that some of it of course

Biden is bragging about right he talked

about bu American and you talked about

the ways in which that has not been

enforced even by recent Democratic

administrations and there are people who

care about climate who think that's a

bad idea that we should be just trying

to get as much climate infrastructure as

cheap as we possibly can as quickly as

we possibly can and trying to combine

that with the construction and

preference of an American supply chain

even if that is good political economy

even if it sounds good in the end won't

be good because it's going to sell you

down it's going to raise prices and

people aren't going to like or benefit

from the program the way they otherwise

would people like low prices for things

but in terms of the sort of macro impact

of the bills yeah I mean they're trying

to build a nationwide electric vehicle

Charger station I think in a direct way

that's probably going to be regressive

for a while because electric vehicles

are somewhat more expensive but in a

long-term way in terms of if it actually

works to reduce air pollution and to

help with global warming that helps

everybody and and helps people in a

progressive way I think the way they do

this which is

Universal bills that inside of them have

significant Equity considerations is

pretty standard at this point for

Democratic

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lawmaking on dobs and& row Biden was

making the case last night that there's

a larger issue of Freedom here obviously

it's a tremendous issue of freedom in

its own right but he was also making the

case that it was a bigger issue tied to

larger issues of freedom in the United

States and I'm wondering what your

thinking is on how that is going to play

out in 2025 and further as they're

developing their agenda in a second

Administration that question makes me

think of an interesting detail in the

profile that Evan Osos did of Joe Biden

in in a very recent New Yorker where he

got some time with Biden in the Oval

Office Biden has a really interesting

and complex history on abortion he

opposes the initial row decision he's a

a moderate Catholic Democrat at the time

that that it happens and and moderate

Catholic Democrats in general were

pro-life throughout his career he has

then largely tried to protect abortion

rights he's got a pretty good record on

that but has always said and and I don't

think is actually bad politics and I

think it is authentic to him that he is

personally uncomfortable with it and AOS

is talking bit about a bit of this

history and he notes then that when the

decision came

down that Biden's reaction inside the

White House as at least it has been

reported was we're just going to roll

back 50 years of rights now and he

experienced it and I think this is true

for a lot of people even people who may

not personally be that comfortable with

the board

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is as a roll back of rights that however

you feel about abortion you shouldn't be

taking the choice away from people I

mean this is the power and potency of

the framing of

choice people believe in row or this set

of Rights the way they understand

themselves is not pro-abortion typically

it's Pro bodily

autonomy and I think that Biden is doing

a a fairly good job talking about it in

those

terms I don't know about the kind of

connection to this other set of things

right there was a sort of effort in

framing at the beginning of the speech

to sort of say you've got Putin on the

march in Ukraine and he's not going to

stop there you had an assault on this

chamber the capital on January 6 and

Donald Trump and that movement are not

going to stop there and you've had an

assault on rights from Trump appointed

judges like on dos and that movement is

not going to going to stop

there I don't necessarily disagree with

any of this it was not the framing of

their message in the State of the Union

that I found most

compelling I mean I think that the

simple abortion argument is very very

compelling and very true I don't think

that trying to make everything into one

issue tends to work I think that's

something that appeals more to what the

political scientists would call highly

ideological thinkers than to just normal

people who mostly don't really feel that

what the Supreme Court did on dos and

what Putin is doing in Ukraine are all

kind of part of the same bucket the

Biden team wants to make this election

about freedom to some degree I think

that's going to resonate freedom and

democracy it is definitely a a

motivating argument to voters and I

think what is very clear from every

speech Joe Biden gives from every report

we get about Joe Biden is that it is

motivating to Joe Biden

personally I would not say that I hope

it is the central framing of their

campaign but again I'm not uh like I

don't win campaigns so I don't think you

should really care what I think about

that and if we go back to the question

of why was he so much more vibrant in

the context last night maybe this is the

thing that animates him and therefore it

has to be the thing that they pursue

because it's what brings out his best

self right I mean that could be part of

it I don't know that maybe but I thought

there was a great argument in the state

of the union and for me just list in the

thing that hit the hardest and felt like

it was solving the biggest problem they

had and was the most flexible of their

arguments which is Midway through when

you began talking about the economy they

have been facing this problem for a

while which is the economy by every

measure and marker you can choose looks

pretty damn good hell of a lot better

than anybody was expecting two years ago

inflation has come way back down there's

a specific problem with grocery prices

which is very very upsetting to people

and understandably so but overall

inflation is way down there was no

recession the labor market is very tight

wages have continued growing

particularly for the poorest Americans

American GDP growth has been very strong

if you compare us to other countries we

look incredibly strong I mean you

compare how we have grown since the

pandemic to you know a bunch of major

European countries to Canada we're

looking great and yet people are pretty

unhappy about it and not are they

unhappy about it they think Donald Trump

is much better on the economy if you

want to know the the number I find

scariest in the whole election it is the

size of Trump's advantage on who do you

trust to run the economy so on the one

hand you can imagine a version where

they're trying to say I feel your pain

we have a lot of ideas here and on the

other you can imagine a version of

actually you're wrong the economy is

great what they did was he began to

build this idea of a comeback America

right Biden says in the in the speech

America is seeing this huge comeback and

it is the greatest story never told

let's tell it here and I think comeback

America is a really good frame for them

because it does two things

simultaneously one it allows them to

make the argument for how far we have

come and we really have come very far

for how good the economy is given where

it was a couple of years ago and it

allows them to keep space for the fact

that we're not where we would like to be

the fact that you're in a comeback even

a really great comeback does not mean

you've won does not mean you can unroll

the mission accomplished Banner to use

the old George W bush thing it does not

require you to tell people that

everything is great it is a way of

making an argument about to be a dork

about this a trend and not a level and I

have not heard them come up with a frame

for how they talk about their own record

in a while when you go back to Biden's

uh campaign kickoff speech at Valley

Forge it was I thought a very strange

speech in many ways to have a campaign

kickoff speech that has nothing about

what you as president have done it's all

about your predecessor and I think it's

fine to make Donald Trump a big issue in

this election he is a big issue in this

election but you still have to run as

the incumbent and the comeback America

framing Biden adopted last night was the

strongest run as an incumbent message I

have heard from them by many many many

miles yeah it's an interesting thing

because people have been saying oh well

you know he can't run the way Reagan did

in ' 84 as mning in America and he can't

because as we've discussed before on the

show like the kitchen table conversation

and the elite conversation are very

Divergent but the comeback argument does

allow space for that because it allows

as you said for recognizing that there's

still a lot that's not going right and

to insist to people that everything is

fine would be politically suicidal

actually I think one of the the

challenges they've been facing and

people have been talking about this like

pretty openly in this election is that

their sort of argument 2020 was a a kind

of return to normaly a return to

stability and Trump has taken very

direct aim of that argument right he's

been basically arguing that under Donald

Trump what You' have gotten is chaos

chaos in Ukraine chaos in Israel Chaos

on the border chaos just in the country

you look at grocery prices and I the

strong man will return normaly I will

bring back order right which is from

many people close cousin of normaly and

there's been this question of you know

what they're going to do about that like

no no no you're the chaos candidate no

no you're the chaos candidate right and

this is a place where I disagree with a

lot of the media critiques I think the

media's done a very good job reporting

on January 6 I think the media's done a

very good job reporting on Wild Things

Donald Trump says I think people know

who Trump is like even if you look at

the uh New York Times poll that came out

recently where Biden was quite far down

from Trump a majority 50 some perc of

people believed Trump is guilty of

serious criminality just some percentage

of his people were going to vote for him

anyway and it is not that it does not

deserve reporting but people know who

Trump is the thing that I think they do

not know or have somehow sort of

Forgotten is that he's actually not good

at running things that Trump's

management is chaotic that he is not

good at running an economy right that by

the time he left the economy it was a

crap show and so I think it is actually

quite important for Biden to do to Trump

what Trump is trying to do to Biden

which is take away what Trump's actual

strength is Trump's actual strength is

not that people have forgotten January 6

Trump's actual strength is that people

remember January of

2019 right his actual strength as people

look back in a sort of rose-colored way

I think and remember kind of a good

economy that you know they were making

more money that inflation hadn't been

high and they don't really blame him for

what came next somehow people have just

memory hold the last year of the Trump

Administration where he mishandled Co

terribly just absolutely terribly the

economy was in tatters he was responding

to a crisis in just the most bizarre

erratic egotistical callous possible way

and like that's the mess Joe Biden

inherited like just like a total

absolute chaotic

situation and they wred the ship and

what I think the comeback economy idea

does or the comeback country idea does

is it allows them first to to remind

people that we were coming back from

something that it was not just like 2019

happened and now we're in 2024 like

there was some stuff that occurred in

between 2019 and 2024 and Donald Trump

was president during it and comeback

America is a good way of combining in an

argument about how much Joe Biden has

done with a constant reminder of what it

was Trump

left and you want to run at your

opponent's strength like not just at

their weakness yeah what there's so many

things that are fascinating about this

whole situation but one of them is that

you have on the one hand an incumbent

who's sort of running against an

incumbent except he's not actually and

he has the Privileges of the Challenger

right Trump does and for them to reset

that is absolutely critical and my sort

of fancy pretentious way of thinking

about it is that if this is a John Lock

election Biden wins easily right but if

it's a Hobs election everything is more

complicated all right you're gonna have

to explain your fancy what you're

thinking about this well basically this

is what it is like being edited by Aaron

Rea you'll you'll be turning into piece

and you'll be like there'll be like a

little com like is this a John Lock

election or is this a Hobs election yeah

well I'm going to get started by talking

about 1892 in a minute too um which was

the last time this I'll just say it now

which is the last time this happened

right we had Benjamin Harrison and

Grover Cleveland groly Cleveland lost to

Harrison came back and won in 1892 and

why did he win well that's a good

question that I don't know the answer to

really I mean it's there's no direct

comparison to the situation now it's

just the last time where you had two

they were what is similar is that you

had two very

unpopular politicians running against

each other and uh for the B

Administration it should be a source of

fear in the sense that Harrison was

unable to push back against Cleveland's

idea that things have been better under

him anyway the point of all this is that

it can and does happen that the person

who was out gets back in on the argument

both that their Administration was

Superior and that they're going to

change what was done um but let's stick

with hob Hobs and lock let's stick with

Hobs and lock the basic idea being that

right if the question is one of order

and constitutions and who's going to

provide greater freedom who's a greater

threat to the Constitutional system if

those kind of questions which as you say

Biden is interested in but it's quite

possible that most of America

isn't then he wins easily on that right

because Donald Trump is a clear threat

to the Constitutional order it's not a

question it's not a theory they actually

marched on the capital right but if it's

a Hobs election a war of all against all

state of nature right and you were just

driving at this is what made me think

about it it's an election where the

question is who's strong who's weak

who's going to save me who's going to

potentially hurt me and Biden has to be

able to win on those terms also because

we don't know what events are going to

be like if 2024 somehow turns out to be

like 1968 right then so much that is

going to come we haven't seen yet in

that case you have Martin Luther King Jr

being assassinated you have Bobby

Kennedy being assassinated ated someone

ends up being the Democratic nominee who

didn't run in a single primary I mean

there's just so many things that no one

could possibly have known were going to

happen in March of 1968 Johnson hadn't

even said he wasn't going to run yet

that's what I mean so if the world

continues to feel like it's a state of

nature to people then Biden has to be

able to win that election and I'm guess

what I'm asking is do you feel that The

Comeback Kid framework will work if

that's the field that is prepared for

the election I I think I I actually

really like this this binary you

set and I think the thing is you really

don't want this to be the binary no this

is my biggest worry about a lot of the

the kind of liberals I've spoken to

about the election they want this to be

a referendum on the constitution on like

the existence of American democracy and

to the extent the American people refuse

to cooperate in seeing the election that

way their argument is the media needs to

yell at them more about it

and tell them they are more wrong about

what Donald Trump was like and the

threat that he poses and it's not that

you can shove any of that I mean again

like the number of stories that we have

all done I mean we just did an episode

on the show a couple weeks ago about

whether or not Donald Trump should be

barred from running constitutionally

because he's an insurrectionist but I do

think there are things people know about

Donald Trump and at some point you have

to ask like the voters you need to win

is this the way they are going to see it

like are they open to hearing this from

you I am not sure all of them are I

think you have to make arguments that

hit people where they are not where you

are and the reason I like The Comeback

America argument is it's neither a hsian

nor a loan argument could I say maybe

it's a Rian argument I see you can do it

too it's a little bit more about you

know go behind the veil of ignorance

imagine there's another crisis right

imagine another covid imagine another

recession like think about how this

actually went last time who do you want

and which kind of group of people do you

want managing it well like let's look at

how America's actually doing now and

like let's look at how it was doing at

the end of the last guy's presidency it

doesn't require you to force people out

of something that they're used to

thinking about so look I mean I think

you should have both arguments there and

I think part of the power of that State

of the Union was that he did right he

began with the argument that is most

compelling to him the freedom argument

but he made it at some length the

argument that has not really been that

present which is an argument about his

own record his own incumbency and the

kind of America that he is trying to

build right the the kinds of jobs that

he is trying to create the picket lines

he has walked the new technologies he's

attempting to invest in right we are in

a comeback the thing it is like is Obama

in 2012 right Obama in 2012 had at this

point he was polling way above where

Biden is now polling he was beating MC

Romney in polls he was polling in the

high 40s not the high 30s in

favorability so he was already at a much

stronger position but it's easy to

forget that the economy was much much

much worse then right I mean we were

still in this slow grinding recovery

from the financial crisis and Obama was

running not against George W bush who

was blamed for the financial crisis and

correctly so he was running against Mitt

Romney who had a very good claim to

being a strong economic manager he'd

been good governor of Massachusetts he'd

been B capital like he he was a

businessman he had made a lot of money

and what the Obama team was able very

effectively to do is make an argument

about comeback we weren't where we

wanted to be but my god look where we

were just four years ago look how far

we've

come and if you can just get people to

the point that yeah things aren't

perfect but things are going well enough

that it's better not to do something

crazy right now somebody's like you know

what I don't love Joe Biden I I just I

don't love the guy

but I don't know the economy actually is

pretty good my paycheck is pretty good

Trump seems kind of crazy better just to

not rock the

boat you want that voter because that

voter exists and that's a kind of voter

who might swing either way you want that

voter to come to you and that voter is I

think not just sitting around thinking

about liberal democracy I had a

conversation with Jared polus who is the

governor of Colorado and he won in

2022 by something like 18 points i'

would have to go back and look at the

exact number but it's in that range

that's a huge Victory right Colorado is

a you know it's a bluish State now but

but it's still a swingy state 2022 could

have been a very hard year I remember

saying I think actually on a show with

you right after the midterm that I

thought Po's vict ictory was as or more

impressive than Ronda sanz's Victory

even though he getting like no coverage

at that point and I talked to polus

recently about well what was it and he

said that we have focused in Colorado

very heavily on a cost of living agenda

and message and I'm paraphrasing him

here but he said there are a lot of

Voters who just don't spend their time

thinking about liberal democracy like we

want every voter who does spend their

time thinking about liberal democracy

and I spend a lot of time thinking about

liberal democracy but we need the voters

who don't and so we have here is a cost

of living message and you could see that

in what Biden was doing right one of the

things when he got into talking about

second term policies that he began

actually talking quite a lot about were

a bunch of policies that he had either

already passed that he had passed and

now wanted to expand and that he had not

yet passed and wanted to pass they were

all cost of living oriented right

getting rid of title insurance on

federally backed mortgages there was the

work he is done to cap the price of

insulin for a lot of people the work he

has done to get Medicare to begin being

able to negotiate down drug prices and

you know only for certain drugs but that

could be expanded right there were a

bunch of things there that you know were

reminiscent to me a little bit of second

term Clinton where he's like we're doing

good and we got a bunch of ways we're

just going to try to make your life also

just a bit better he had a whole kind of

funny little Riff on shrinkflation and

how there's like not as much Snickers in

the Snicker bar anymore right that cost

of living stuff matters to people

because again there are a bunch of

Voters who are not going to be motivated

by Lial democracy they're going to be

motivated by which of these guys can

just kind of help me make it through the

day a little bit more easily and Biden

really needs to win that argument or at

least win it with enough people to win

the

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election

what is the foreign policy agenda for

Biden starting in January 2025 the way

you see it let's start with Israel

Palestine but I also want to talk about

Russia and Ukraine so I mean I think

it's worth beginning with a thing that

he is announcing doing right now right

America is going to build a functional

military

port to be able to autonomously bring

Aid into

Gaza that is not going to

satisfy people who are Furious about

American support of the Israeli attack

on Gaza right um I I I I do think it's

very important to keep these things a

little bit

separate many people including at this

point myself do not believe we should be

backing what Netanyahu is doing and

bringing in Aid with one hand while

protecting Israel in its yeah at least

at the UN while it continues to promote

a war that at this point seems truly

detached from like an actual goal that

is

achievable nevertheless it is very very

important and a very unusual step for

America to take to build its own way to

bring in Aid to help the people in a

territory that our Ally is bombing using

our bombs right the the whole situation

is genuinely weird actually when you

think about it but it's a very strong

message from Biden at least given where

he's been that we find the condition of

the Palestinian people right now

unacceptable and you know Israel

definitely better not be bombing our

right our our created port and and it's

notable that the part of reason they're

doing this is things like Aid have been

held up by the Israelis right which is

illegal under American law there are a

lot of people who believe and I think

correctly so that we are not correctly

enforcing our own laws here it is not

legal under the rules we have on how we

export arms for some of the kinds of

Human Rights abuses we're seeing to be

happening with our

armaments we're not really enforcing

those rules but this is something the

other thing Joe Biden really made a

point of saying at the State of the

Union is that there is a grand bargain a

grand outcome he is trying to get to in

the region where he is trying to trade

Israel recognition with Saudi Arabia and

support in containing Iran for Israel's

recognition and acceptance of a

Palestinian

state so far the problem is not whether

that is Joe Biden's position it's

whether it is Benjamin netanyahu's

position now if Joe Biden has a second

term I think the assumption is Benjamin

Netanyahu will not be part of it right

Benny gon is expected to win the

election whenever it happens we don't

know that that will be the outcome but

it seems quite plausible he was just

treated here like he was a head of state

practically G is starting to be treated

in other places like head of state he

just had a meeting uh in the UK as well

right the West is beginning to treat GS

like the real leader of Israel Netanyahu

like a lame duck like a problem to be

managed so one argument is it what will

happen eventually is that this war will

end there will be an election Netanyahu

will lose and Biden and and other

Western leaders are going to work with

Benny Gans to try to execute this huge

rearrangement

we don't know right I mean that's the

the right way to put that right you

don't lose money betting against peace

in in Israel and and among Palestinians

but but we don't know

um I you know I think the thing that

that Biden is going to be trying to do

right now is show that he really does

value Palestinian life I mean at the

core of the fury and the critique of him

is not that he supports Israel it is he

is supporting Israel in a way that makes

it seem like we do not truly value

Palestinian life life saying they are

going too far while they go too far is

not enough building the port while they

go too far I don't think that's going to

feel like it is enough to people um well

it's also can be read quite easily as a

sign of American weakness because we

can't get it we can't get them to stop

doing right it's a very again I want to

say this I I both respect what they're

doing it's a very strange thing right it

is a strange thing to see happening if

we think they're going too far maybe we

don't give them our Weaponry but you you

heard this too from Biden Biden was very

clear you know he began that by saying

functionally Israel is right to be

attempting to eradicate Hamas and my

understanding and this something Richard

hos the the president ameritus of the

Council of Foreign Relations was saying

on the show a few weeks ago that the

reason that this government is still as

strong behind Israel as it is and is not

moved into a a significantly more

critical position where it is more

willing to draw red lines is Biden

himself so I mean this is Biden's View

and he's trying to to balance these two

views against each other and it's a very

complicated

thing I don't think by the 2024 election

the pivot the the grand strategy he's

laying out will have had time to come to

fruition I do think in a second term it

is likely we will at least see

negotiations in that direction right

they're going to try to reset this

entire thing under new leadership that

is his promise right that is that is the

policy he's laying out in another

ongoing area of conflict the war between

Russia and Ukraine um Biden made a big

deal of talking about how Putin was as

he's portraying him on the March and

obviously at the same time the

administration is having tremendous

difficulty getting Ukraine Aid through

Congress so what is the second term

agenda there in uh some Foreign Affairs

thing I was reading they were saying

like Okay now it's time to start talking

about talking and obviously that's how

talking has to start but is there

another approach you can imagine the

Biden Administration taking in a second

term I I mean I don't I don't know I'm

not deep enough on this issue to know

what I will say is I I think it's worth

understanding that what he was doing in

the State of the Union was trying to

pressure House Republicans to let the

aid package

through and also trying to make this as

part of their kind of anti-freedom

agenda right to the extent that one of

the overarching arguments here that

Biden is making is there is actually

a

worldwide fight between freedom and

tyranny he was connecting Putin and

Trump and he was

connecting support for

Ukraine and support for American

democracy I think there's a belief that

at this point right and I've seen a

number of Articles saying that it is

privately believed and they're trying to

figure out inside the the administration

that zilinsky needs to move into a more

defensive position in terms of the war

strategy and basically grind Russia to a

halt you can make this continuously

costly on Russia and you know at some

point you're going to sue for peace here

right and and nobody's going to like it

but the belief they can win is something

that is currently being said but is not

truly an internally

believed but the thing that could happen

is they could lose and they could lose

if we stopped giving them military aid

and the reason we would stop giving the

military aid is that Republicans have

decided they wanted Russia to win and

they wanted that because Donald Trump

wanted that I thought it was uh very

striking

when Biden just said that it is

unacceptable right to say that Vladimir

Putin can do whatever he wants to to

Nato members that we feel aren't doing

their fair share that Trump has moved

into position on a foreign policy that's

actually unacceptable that whatever you

believe about zelinsky's strategy and

whether or not they can actually win

making an American policy that Russia

should win is unacceptable that is

unamerican and Biden's right on that and

I think that's a among other things a a

strong contrast I actually do think

Donald Trump when you get out of sort of

highflying you know we shouldn't be

giving our money to other people we

should be building things here at home

when you actually get down to Brass tax

on what he is saying we should let

Vladimir Putin overrun Ukraine I don't

think people agree with that that was

Biden using the State of the Union

speech in a more traditional way to move

aspects of his agenda in that case

Ukraine Aid and he also tried to do that

on immigration which we haven't talked

about but we should Biden brought up the

Border deal they had negotiated which

for a moment it seemed like was actually

about to happen and he called out Trump

for scuttling it in the most overt and

direct way because it would hurt Trump's

campaign so again looking ahead to 2025

let's say Biden wins let's say he does

not have both chambers of Congress he

has one or he has none is there space

space for a deal like that to finally

happen I think it's very hard to know

the condition of the Republican party

and the the sort of leadership Trends in

the Republican Party in the event of a

Donald Trump loss right what you might

have expected would happen if Donald

Trump lost in 2020 did not happen but

there was a period after 2020 when

Republicans were more willing to work

with Joe Biden I mean Joe Biden really

did get bipartisan votes on the

infrastructure Bill he really did get

bipartisan votes on the chips and S act

so there very much I think could be a

period where some kinds of deal making

are possible and it was interesting

watching the camera pivot to Senator

James lenford who's very

conservative and was the Republican

negotiator on the bipartisan border Bill

and he was like nodding along with Joe

Biden right I mean he has suddenly been

demonized for negotiating a very

conservative Bill a bill that that

dragged the Democratic party

substantially to the right on

immigration and got a lot of things

Republicans have often wanted and then

you know for the very crime of trying to

solve a problem Republicans said they

wanted to solve he became the the sort

of enemy of the day over there and so

there are people like that and you know

what you would have to trade or not

trade what Joe Biden can do through

executive orders is also a kind of

interesting question I will say having

done some reporting with the Biden

Administration on this I I think it one

it's I think very important to realize

that they believe this is a real problem

right they are not sitting there saying

as has been true at other

times Fox News is making up a border

crisis right you you remember the

Caravan right like that was kind of a

madeup crisis 2018 in 2018 what is

happening at the border now is not a

madeup crisis we are actually dealing

with record levels of apprehensions the

Asylum system as Biden very very well

described is completely broken people

are coming in they get put into America

for years as say wait a hearing because

the system is so overwhelmed and

overloaded that's a perfectly reasonable

like bet to make even if you don't think

you're going to Prevail at your hearing

they want to fix it and I guess in

theory eventually Republicans want to

fix it as well but they're not going to

fix it in a year when Donald Trump is

running for president and when he's

telling them not to the other thing you

saw though is what a gift Trump gave

Biden right what a gift Trump gave him

because now you can imagine a world

where the bipartisan border bill passed

and these things take some time to

implement it takes time to hire and

train however many thousand new Asylum

officers takes time to bring in those

verification and Drug machines that

Biden was talking about and so Biden is

talking about how we pass the toughest

border bill in American history whatever

but actually it doesn't look like

anything is all that different at the

border by election

day but by killing the compromise what

Trump gave them was a way to say we were

the ones who wanted to pass the toughest

border Bill and you kept us from solving

the problem you kept this from happening

right so rather than having to own the

actual

outcome Biden right now doesn't have to

own the outcome Trump in a way is owning

the outcome or at least can in an

argumentative way and Biden can own the

desire to solve the problem I think

that's a good place to end actually cuz

we've more or less run out of time

anyway obviously we didn't get to

everything but we got to a lot and

there's another eight months God help us

of this campaign so plenty more time for

this kind of conversation uh but I have

a I'm going to Spring something on you

because uh as as people maybe have CAU

on to you're you're you're a man who

reads a lot of history you're a man who

who's deep in the stacks what are three

books you'd recommend to the audience to

to understand or contextualize this

moment in in American political history

oh wow okay was I warned about this I

not uh okay I'm going to push one book

that I've been pushing on everybody

which is uh I would not call it a book

that will um tell you everything you

need to know about what's happening now

but it's a really interesting and

instructive book about sort of what

we've lost it doesn't mean to be that

but it is because we've lost it and that

is this biography by John Farrell of tip

O'Neal that I just read that has many

incredible things in it but it

represents a world where tip O'Neal when

he's Speaker of the House Ronald Reagan

is President and they are in fact able

to function they are slashing each other

all day and then they say you know we're

going to be friends at night and is it

perfect no it's not perfect and many

terrible things were done but even so

the political process is functioning in

a way that right now it's not and it was

very interesting to read that I guess

another way I would also answer that

question is that the 19th century always

tells us a tremendous amount about the

21st something I've been reading that I

haven't actually finished that is

speaking to the moment very much for me

is stepen hans's history of the 19th

century it's in Eric foner's penguin

history of America series I it's called

a nation Without Borders but the reason

it's so resonant now is that the 19th

century still informs so much of what

happens in the 21st in that you're

seeing America attempt to become an

Empire even though that of course is not

what was supposed to happen right you're

seeing America in terms of its internal

colonialism with regard to Native

Americans right the seminal War which

Han points out is like the longest

American war until Vietnam and like you

know it's just a whole set of thoughts

and ideas that I think are helpful for

this moment all right well that's two so

for a third I'm going to stick with the

theme of the 19th century controlling

the 21st and recommend Joanne Freeman's

book field of blood uh which is also

incredibly resonant today it looks at

political violence inside Congress

inside the building itself in the 1830s

and 40s and 50s actual brawls between

congressmen thrashings there's lots of

weapons and she uses that as a way of

understanding the political violence

that was taking America over at the time

and they calling it obviously in the

Civil War that kind of intersection

between personal and political violence

has been the subject of all of her work

and in this book it's really quite

extraordinary yeah field of blood is is

amazing it's one of those books that

that after you read it you will never

again listen to somebody say to you oh

my god American political division has

never been this bad yeah uh eron reica

thank you very much thank you for having

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me

[Music]

this episode of the Ezra kin show was

produced by Roland who factchecking by

Michelle Harris with Kate Sinclair and

Mary Marge Locker our senior Engineers

Jeff geld with additional mixing from

Aim Shapiro our senior editors Clare

Gordon the show's production team also

includes Andy Galvin and Kristen Lynn

original music by Isaac Jones audience

strategy by Christine Sami and Shannon

Busta the executive producer of New York

Times opinion audio is Andy raser and

special thanks to Sonia

[Music]

Herrero