Coming up on Bloomberg this weekend, a second straight night without U.S.

strikes on Iran, as the white House is reportedly concerned about the size of

its weapons stockpiles. New details and the impact on rising oil

and gas prices, and 100 days to go until the midterm elections.

Democrats hoping to win back the House and Senate this November with the focus

on a key matchup in Maine. We have a party to unite.

We have a move in the bill, and we have a senator to defeat.

And ever feel like you need a vacation from your vacation?

The new trend for luxury getaways. Making sure you get plenty of R&R when

you're out of office.

Welcome to blueberry. This weekend we're coming to you live

from Bloomberg's world headquarters in New York City.

I'm David Garrow. I'm Christina Ruffini.

We are here, as always with Lisa Mateo. It is Sunday, July 26th.

Welcome to our listeners and viewers across all our Bloomberg platforms on

radio, TV, streaming, bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business app.

Do you ever need a vacation from your vacation?

You know, I may have claim to need that once or twice.

Uh, interesting morning shaping up here, as you mentioned at the top.

Uh, a second straight night without US strikes on Iran.

We're seeing Iran kind of saying the same thing this morning.

News just crossing the Bloomberg terminal.

They have said the same thing. So some sort of pause or cessation here

and we'll see how long that lasts. Again, diplomatic route does seem like

it's kind of dry. That's right.

But there is some new reporting as to what might be driving that pause, at

least on the US side, and we're going to dig into that in just a second.

But first let's go to Lisa with the headlines.

You got it. And we're starting with tragedy in

Berlin. After a van drove into a crowd during a

German. The German capital's LGBTQ plus parade.

One person was killed, at least 16 injured.

Police are searching for a suspect who they say has ties to Islamic groups.

Hundreds of thousands of people who had come to take part in Christopher Street

Day, one of Europe's largest LGBTQ plus celebrations, also in Europe.

French firefighters and military crews continue to battle fast moving wildfires

in south west France, as shifting winds drive it into new areas.

French military personnel are supporting relief operations alongside health care

workers assisting evacuees. More than 300,000 people have been

displaced in parts of France and Spain this week, and those fast moving fires

have had an impact on the final day of the tour de France today.

Stage 21 will now be shorter, about 55 miles down from just over 82.

It's due to a lack of security officials who have been deployed to fight the

blazes at the 113th edition of the race lasted three weeks, starting on July 4th

in Barcelona, Spain. Well, from wildfires to a typhoon,

Typhoon Newell made landfall today in southern China, bringing strong winds

and heavy rain to the region. More than 70,000 people have been

relocated and over 300 emergency shelters are set up.

Classes, work, production, transportation and businesses have all

been suspended. Back here at home, Maine Democrats

officially pick Troy Jackson as their new U.S.

Senate nominee. That's after previous pick Graham

Platner dropped out. Jackson spoke to the crowd at a special

convention in Bangor. There is a place in this campaign for

all of you. There is work for you in this movie and

I will spend every day now through November earning that trust.

Jackson is a fifth generation logger and former Maine Senate president.

Jackson will take on five term Republican Susan Collins, who has held

her seat even though a GOP presidential candidate hasn't won Maine in nearly 40

years. Also, the war in Iran, where the U.S.

has paused its almost two week run of strikes against Iran for a second night,

and that's raising further questions over President Donald Trump's war

strategy. The New York Times reporting that

President Trump and his advisers, they're concerned that the war could

drain the already diminished stores of Patriot anti-missile interceptors and

other air defense weapons in the region. But tensions are still high near a

global energy chokepoint in the southern Red sea due to fighting between Yemen's

Houthi militants and Saudi Arabia. David.

Christina. Lisa, thank you very much.

Becca Wasser, our colleague, is the Freakonomics, writing about this as

well. The concern about stockpiles and sort of

what that means about how much the U.S. could ratchet up a ratchet back.

It's interesting that the president had a phone call with a French journalist

and said he absolutely is prepared to go back to all out war, but the fact that

these munition supplies could be prescribing policy, I think is really

significant. And I think we're gonna get into that

shortly. So thanks, Lisa.

Lisa mentioned President Trump is reportedly holding off on major

escalation against Iran. As The New York Times reports this

morning, one of the major reasons is due to the critical shortage in the US

interceptor stockpile, but also the administration being concerned about

possibly expanding the war throughout the Middle East.

This new information comes just one day after President Trump said this in the

Oval Office. Look, we're talking to them right now.

I think they're getting more and more serious as the days go by.

So maybe the obvious reason, but we are talking to them right now.

Look, there are two ways I consider that the smarter way, but the other is

probably the easier way doing what we're doing.

And we can take that to a much higher level if we want to.

You know, we're prepared to do that as you we're locked and loaded.

Joining us now are Bloomberg's breaking news editor in Israel, Alisa Odin Heimer

and Bloomberg white House correspondent Courtney Subramanian.

And Courtney, let me start with you on this Sunday morning and just get your

sense of the meaning behind this pause, the white House pause.

Yes, the Iranian one as well. Do you have any sense of of what's being

considered within the white House right now and why?

We've seen a stop after 13 consecutive days of U.S.

strikes. Yeah.

Well, the concerns over the Patriot interceptors and other defense munitions

have been ongoing throughout this war, and recent escalations obviously only

exacerbated that. I asked the white House yesterday about

this and got a statement from, uh, Communications Director Steven Chung

saying that the president, quote, has always been consistent in saying he

prefers a diplomatic solution, but he continues to retain all the options.

If Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against

allies, and it would be wise for Iran to work towards a negotiated deal,

otherwise they will know what will happen.

Um, but I did speak to a Trump ally this week close to the white House who said,

you know, he pointed out that Trump could start and stop this war for months

at his convenience. And while there are these, uh, concerns

of with defense weapons, uh, he has more financial flexibility than people

believe because of money allocated from the reconciliation package of 2025.

And he's about to get another $60 billion, uh, boost to replenish

stockpiles. But of course, the president is growing

more frustrated with this, um, you know, seemingly stalemate at this point.

Uh, he knows the risks of a larger war, and he is facing a lot of pressure, both

at home and uh, in uh, especially among Gulf allies in the region as we see this

new, uh, front opened in the Red sea. For now, I want to talk to you about

those allies, not just in the Gulf, but, uh, even in Europe now, it seems,

because there's a new threat from the IRGC.

Spock's spokesperson this morning saying any nation, including the UK or Persian

Gulf states that supports the United States in a war will become a legitimate

target. Recently, American B-1 bombers use

British airfields. If they cooperate, they will be our

definite and legitimate target. We have a specific scenario for every

situation. I mean, I'm assuming the hope here is

that Iran will put pressure on U.S. allies to then pressure the U.S.

to scale back. But it seems to me like it could also

have the opposite effect. Trump has been very mad at EU allies,

NATO allies, for not helping him secure the Gulf.

If Iran were to attack, uh, directly British military bases, European

military bases, it seems like that could get them into a conflict and widen the

conflict throughout the Middle East. Certainly.

I mean, again, I think the president, as he said, uh, on Friday in the Oval

Office, as he said in, uh, various public speeches, um, they have a couple

different ways this can go. He, you know, is obviously trying to

pressure Iran to come to the table and return to, uh, diplomacy.

Um, but there are real risks here with getting more, uh, countries involved in

this war, and it seemingly has no end in sight.

Um, there's great frustration, of course, within this administration about

where things are at. One thing I had been told consistently

over the last few months was that Republicans had hoped this would wrap by

this point, because of the midterm elections in November, and because of

some of the messaging they have to take home.

Um, so, you know, increasingly, as we see more, um, nations get wrapped up

into this, I think the president is under immense pressure to find some sort

of solution to return to the negotiating table, and at least a thank you for

joining us your first time. We appreciate you coming on.

In that same statement, the IRGC also issues new threats to Israel, saying by

provoking the US by excuse me, by provoking the U.S.

president and providing false information, Israel wants to keep the

United States in the region and advance its own goals using American power.

I know this is new, so I'm assuming we haven't heard a reaction yet from the

Israeli government. We haven't seen Israel striking Iran

directly in quite some time. What is the strategy here, and what is

the position of the Israeli government on whether they want this conflict to to

go back up and kind of eradicate this regime or go back to the negotiating

table? I know, uh, Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu has been very critical of those negotiations.

Yes. That's true.

Well, Netanyahu is going to be traveling, uh, to the US this week, uh,

leaving tomorrow for Washington. And he's and according to reports, here

he is going to be presenting, uh, President Trump with intelligence

information, which is showing that, uh, Iran has been working on recovering its,

um, nuclear, uh, um, nuclear weapons, um, program.

And that is really what is Israel's greatest concern?

The nuclear weapon program, plus the ballistic missile program.

Um, at the moment, the fighting Israel hasn't been involved at all in the past

few weeks in the fighting with Iran. Uh, it does say that if attacked, it

will it will, uh, it will respond forcefully.

Uh, but the, uh, Hormuz situation, um, even if it is solved, that doesn't solve

Israel's basic problem with Iran. Just to put up a poll here, a recent

poll here from Fox News, it looks like, uh, the question was, how do you feel

about military action in Iran to, uh, the general electorate?

Seems like 56% oppose that. And, Courtney, on that note, I want to

go to you and kind of to get a sense of the importance of the meetings the

president is going to have this week. Yes.

The kind of galvanizing factor here is his funeral for Lindsey Graham, the late

senator from South Carolina. But this is going to draw a lot of

leaders from around the world. Given the kind of interventionist nature

of Lindsey Graham's attitude toward foreign policy.

So, yes, Benjamin Netanyahu will be there.

We understand President Zelensky is going to make the trip as well.

How is the white House framing or looking at, uh, the importance of this

week in the meetings that are going to happen, kind of complimentary to the

funeral that's going to take place in two parts, one in South Carolina and the

other in Washington. Yeah.

I mean, it's, uh, it's increasingly becoming a defining feature of his

presidency. Uh, the white House hasn't quite

seemingly figured out messaging. I mean, there's great frustration with

the message that Iran has been degraded. Yet here we are still fighting.

You saw last week the president, um, you know, went to Georgia to campaign for

the midterms, but started the morning by receiving, uh, the dignified transfer of

four service members who were killed in the recent, uh, strikes and escalations.

Um, you know, so this is this is something that the the white House has,

uh, decided they don't really need to message with the American people.

I mean, the president has continually said, um, you know, we're we're winning.

They want to make a deal. They're not ready to make a deal, but

they will. Um, and this is something that I think

we would expect him to speak to Zelenskyy, Netanyahu and all these

people. He'll he'll be seeing, uh, for Senator

Graham's funeral. One thing I was told after, uh, the

sudden death of Senator Graham was there are there is great concern about what

the party looks like without him because of his stance on Iran, uh, on, you know,

and how much he how close he was to the president in terms of advising him on

this conflict. So, um, you know, I do think we'll hear

a lot more as the president meets with some of these world leaders who are

arriving for the senator's funeral, at least, of course, is one of those

leaders. As you just heard Courteney mentioned

will likely be, uh, Prime Minister Netanyahu.

And obviously they're going to talk about Iran.

They're going to talk about, uh, the various conflicts in the region.

But I wonder what your take is on what will be said about this proposed nuclear

deal the US is entering into or possibly entering into with Saudi Arabia.

One of the caveats that seems to have happened, possibly after the ink was

maybe still wet, but on the way to drawing for that deal was you saw

President Trump come out and say, well, this will only happen if Saudi enters

the Abraham Accords. Now, there was a point several years ago

when Saudi and Israel were fairly close to normalizing relations, but a lot has

happened between that. And the Saudi crown prince has basically

said, I can't do this. Uh, domestically, all politics are

domestic until there is a solution in Gaza.

That also doesn't seem likely at the moment.

Where do you think the Prime Minister stands on this deal?

Right. Uh, I think that, um, the Prime minister

probably wasn't very happy about, uh, the, uh, announcement or about the

report about the Israel, uh, about the sorry about the US, uh, Saudi deal.

Um, if it depends on, um, on solving the Palestinian, uh, issue, then who knows

if you know what will actually happen. Um, if it if it's just a matter of

joining the, uh, Abraham Accords, I don't know, maybe maybe he would go

along with that, but. At least I think we lost.

We lost your connection there, Courtney. Let's let's kick it back to you.

At the same point, you are also genuinely curious here how the white

House has been thinking through this, this process here.

Obviously, there's been a lot of congressional pushback on what the

president's proposed here as well, including that civilian nuclear program

plan for for Saudi Arabia. Yeah, I mean, it's it was, uh, pretty

curious. I think, uh, a lot of people were

confused as to why this wasn't mentioned.

Uh, originally before the ink was dry, as you said on that, on that signing.

I do wonder, um, you know, whether this is something that will, will actually

will actually get done. But I will say the Abraham Accords, uh,

are, of course, uh, a legacy piece for this president.

This is something, um, he considers one of his great successes of his first

term. Uh, his son in law, Jared Kushner,

obviously was the architect of that, continues to maintain, uh, a close

advisory relationship to the president. Um, so I'm sure I'm quite sure Jared was

involved in these discussions, but, uh, this is something that the president

would like to see, um, you know, expanded as part of his legacy.

So, uh, you know, I think they're putting a lot of, um, support and

pressure behind this effort. The secretary of state, Marco Rubio, was

on the road this week. He was, uh, at the Asean conference for

for a few days. And he talked about the prospects of

there being some kind of diplomatic resolution.

Yeah. Let's take a listen to what he had to

say about that. I saw Arashi there.

Foreign minister, who the other day say or something about their policies.

An eye for an eye. The president's policy is ahead for an

eye. I mean, honestly, that's what it's going

to be. I mean, there will pay a very heavy

price. Courtney, on this note, I want to turn

to you because, um, it's been emphasized that the president continues to talk

about talks being underway, Iran's eagerness to engage in some negotiation

that would lead to a potential deal. I'm also struck listening to the

secretary of state there, uh, about the comments that the president made in the

Oval Office at the end of last week when he said that there were any number of

administration officials who were involved in these negotiations.

And I wonder what your reporting is telling us just about who, in fact, is

driving them? Is it Steve Woodcock and Jared Kushner?

Is it Secretary Rubio, who again, has been on the road quite far afield from

from the Middle East? Is it Vice President Vance, your sense

of sort of where, uh, the administration is kind of putting its chips right now,

is it is it looks to have some kind of diplomatic solution, perhaps eventually.

Yeah. I mean, I think all of the people you

mentioned, um, certainly play a key role.

Uh, of course, Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner are the ones, um, you know,

really driving some of these conversations.

But, uh, Secretary Rubio is involved. This meeting on Friday, the president,

the president reportedly had, um, involved senior members of his, uh,

cabinet, which of course, includes Secretary Rubio.

Um, he mentioned Secretary Rice, Secretary Bassan, um, these are the

people that he's really leaned on throughout this conflict, um, to, to

help inform him, um, some of the decisions around these diplomatic talks,

uh, around sanctions and how to exert pressure on Iran to bring them to the

negotiating table. Um, so, you know, we will see.

The president is hosting a cabinet meeting next week, uh, at Camp David.

And I'm sure Iran will be, um, the, the, the main, one of the main topics of

that, of that meeting as well. All right.

Continue to remain in our white House correspondent and Alyssa O'Hara joining

us from overseas. Thank you both so much.

Extremely busy week shaping up there. The cabinet meeting, the court you

mentioned just a moment ago and then this funeral, I think it's I think going

to draw a lot of world leaders today. It's kind of going to be a de facto

summit, because Lindsey Graham was so influential when it came to foreign

policy. And frankly, it's also a good excuse to

come to town and get in front of the president.

And we know how influential that can be in his foreign policy.

All right. It's being called an unprecedented cyber

incident. OpenAI's autonomous hacking of another

tech company. What will the CEO Sam Altman, say about

that? That's more after the break.

Thank you for joining us live in Bloomberg this weekend.

I'm Lisa Mateo. Let's update you on today's top stories.

Well, after eight months abroad, the International Space Station for its

first mission, NASA astronaut Chris Williams has returned to Earth now.

During his assignment, Williams contributed to research for new cancer

treatments, advance the production of materials to improve computers and

electronics, and even completed two spacewalks.

Williams was joined by two astronauts from Russia, the Soyuz spacecraft, and

landed in Kazakhstan about an hour ago. There he goes.

Well, Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro on son of former President Jair

Bolsonaro. He was confirmed as a presidential

candidate of his father's liberal party. Now, it took place at a national

convention in Sao Paulo and is a bid against incumbent President Luiz Inacio

Lula da Silva. It comes after a chaotic week marked by

fresh legal trouble and an uneasy truce with his stepmother.

In company news, investor excitement over the memory chip trade.

Has a bar set high for the Shanghai debut of M.T.

Now, the company is set to become the biggest China listed firm on its very

first day of trading after raising $9.8 billion.

It's the world's fourth largest maker of chips that underpin everything from

smartphones to AI servers. And while a heat dome expands across the

US, Chile's central Andes, will they receive some much needed snow?

One of the Santiago metropolitan areas most popular mountain destinations.

Well, it's been suffering from weeks of limited snowfall.

But a recent storm which watched flooding, landslides of some areas and

left more than six feet of snow in the Andes yesterday, the popular destination

of recorded full capacity a tendency in the snow.

While we're in, the heat feels very far from here.

Yes. I never wanted to see snow ever again

after the winter we had in New York. That does look quite funny, I will say.

All right. Thank you.

So this week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman plans to brief the Trump administration

and lawmakers on the upcoming generation of artificial intelligence models.

This coming after a breach at the technology firm Hugging Face,

demonstrated that containment measures for AI models are sometimes not enough,

with the company saying it was hacked by an autonomous outside agent.

Also this week, four of the Mag seven are set to report earnings as

discussions continue on whether surging AI investments will generate sufficient

returns against a still unsettled geopolitical backdrop.

For more, we're joined by Bloomberg Tech and industrial policy reporter Maggie

Eastland just mentioned are Bloomberg senior equities reporters here with us

in New York. Maggie, let me turn to you first.

And I look at this statement from OpenAI on that incident, a new kind of security

incident, unprecedented cyber incident. Talk a bit about what happened here.

Explain it to me as best you can. And you know, how unforeseen was this?

And how worried should we be about it? And why has no one watched the

historical documentary The Terminator? But that's fine, all right.

It's a very Skynet moment. Follow up question.

Let's continue. Yeah, this does seem a little Skynet,

but it's not quite there yet, thankfully.

Um, so what happened? Uh, was OpenAI disclosed that, uh, two

of its models, both the sole model, which is the most recent one, and

actually a model that hasn't been released at all yet, that's still in

development, kind of like got out of the box, so to speak.

So they were testing their new model kind of in an air gapped environment.

Um, and they asked the model to do something to complete a security test.

So instead of completing that test in the way they had envisioned, This I

model went to little Rock and it actually kind of like hacked into the

internet. Wasn't supposed to have access to.

Uh, and then it went to in face, which is a platform that a lot of software

developers and AI researchers use regularly.

So it was trying to pull some things from hugging face in order to do the

tasks that OpenAI had asked it to do. Uh, so this is clearly an out of the box

situation, though it was responding to a directive.

But clearly the AI models are starting to act in ways that are a bit

unpredictable. Um, and according to directions they

haven't exactly been given. Don't, uh, I don't like that innocent

looking emoji. Like, yeah, that's it.

Here's the other question is some people are saying yes, they have an obligation

to disclose this, but it's a little bit of a show off as well.

It it functions a bit as an ad for their eye to say, look, we've built this

thing. It's so powerful.

Look what we can do. Is there a bit of braggadocio here, or

is it mostly just they need to disclose it to tell people what's going on?

Yeah, I think that, um, you know, the part that maybe is not as it doesn't get

as much attention is that, you know, opening I did ask the model to complete

the security test, and it was trying to to do that when it hacked into hugging

face. It was just doing it in a way that

wasn't really what the company had intended.

So I think it's it's sort of a mixed picture here, right?

Um, you could see, you know, models acting and trying to act on the

directions they've been given, but just doing it in a way that's not what the

user intended. So it's a bit nuanced here.

And that's more the concern, at least at this point, rather than a, um, a full

blown kind of Skynet situation. All right.

Fine. All right.

Just mention all of this happening in the crucible of tech earnings season.

So we heard from alphabet. That company talked about its spend on

AI infrastructure. I think if you look at those four major

hyperscalers and something like $725 billion is what they're forecasted to be

to be spending on this. How did our sense of that, our sense of

the level of investment changes, result of what alphabet reported, and what are

we going to learn this week from these other companies?

Well, the playbook has changed for these companies and specifically their stocks.

Normally, your stock would be rewarded as a hyper scalar if you're spending

more money on capital expenditures related to AI.

But then what changed here? Well, a lot of that has to do with the

macro. I mean, you all talk so much about oil

prices spiking. Just saw that this past week briefly

above 00 for Brent prices. And then also what does that mean for

inflation in the path of rates. Because if these companies want to issue

more stock issuance, but then if their stock is falling that's a problem.

So if you have to tap the debt markets, that's even more expensive than what

their earnings outlook would have been at the start of this year.

So then something has to reprice. But with that said, if you look at

overall S&P 500 earnings growth for the first half of the year, it's expected to

track around 28% based on Bloomberg Intelligence data.

So for perspective, outside of the bounce back from Covid or the great

financial crisis, that would be the best growth since 2004.

So normally you wouldn't see that at this point in the economic cycle.

So it's not to say that it's doom and gloom, because earnings growth is one of

the key pillars for corporate earnings and obviously how that ties to GDP

growth. But now we're supposed to get an update

for the first time on second quarter GDP growth at the end of this next week

after the fed meeting. Obviously that's more backward looking.

But the Atlanta Fed GDP now models a little bit below 2%.

So what does it mean for corporate earnings in general if these are the

stocks that have really powered that growth over the past few years.

I was also reading that, you know, the tech sell offs look pretty scary.

But in the end it might be a better thing to stabilize parts of the sector.

Can you explain to us why that might be true?

Well, the big thing the past few years and something that's switched recently

is typically if you talk to whatever moniker you want to use for these big

tech giants, typically because of the concentration and record concentration

they have in the S&P 500, as well as the Nasdaq.

You would see it just completely bring down a lot of the indexes.

But what's interesting is whether it's this past week or in recent weeks,

you've seen a divergence between the seven stocks and see what's happening in

chipmakers specifically memory. So of course Apple is going to be

reporting next week after the bill on Thursday.

That's a different type of I spend or it doesn't spend as much money related to

AI in the same way as the other companies, and it's also the best

performing stock out of the Mag seven this year.

It's up over 20%. Tesla is the worst down.

So I feel like I wasn't the shiny new kid for a while, and now people are

going back to it. But then also it had those issues with

price hikes for those devices. We have a more good bit of Bloomberg

reported about that a month ago. Its stock briefly got hit, but it's not

spending the same amount on AI and related to CapEx as these other

companies. But it's more unique when it comes to

the memory components. That's more expensive for it.

So you see the counterparts in the chip space, whether it's a micron, SanDisk,

those are the two best performers in the S&P 500 the first half of this year, but

noted since the stock's peak last month, I mean, those have been hit by double

digits and pretty hard. So even though you're seeing the

hyperscalers pullback, you're still seeing the overall market.

Whether it's the S&P 500 still about 2% of his all time high.

So that you're seeing a divergence there in the concentration of the market.

Now at Easton, we had our moonshot moment in recent days.

And that was precious to president, of course, by what happened with Deep Sea a

while back, Bloomberg reported. Now that Deep Sea is pausing the second

fundraising round after some comments reportedly made by its chief executive.

Explain what's going on here. Uh, and what this says about the dynamic

between the innovation and work that's happening in China vis a vis what's

happening here, the United States, when it comes to AI.

So, as you said, you know, we're reporting that Deep Sea is delaying

their plans for initial public offering of it.

I think bigger picture here. What we're seeing is even though this is

delayed, we also saw with the release of Kimi K3, another Chinese model, just a

few weeks ago. Um, and they're also looking to IPO

potentially in the next year. Uh, is the Chinese companies are moving,

uh, kind of at a pace that's similar to the US companies.

Obviously, OpenAI and anthropic also have IPOs upcoming.

Um, but actually these Chinese competitors are proving to be a real

risk for them, just because the eye that they offer is is very good and it's also

very cheap. So that's what a huge point of debate

and kind of sending shockwaves through Washington over the last two weeks is

just, you know, how good the Chinese competition is.

Um, and sort of the question of whether those models were created in a way that

was that was fair. I'll see you makers here are waiting.

Yeah. Speaking of policymakers, I'm also

wondering, as we see some of these jail breaks from these systems and people

start to talk a little bit more seriously about some AI regulation, what

that means for the development as you get more competitive with the Chinese

sectors. And if these AI companies are concerned

about regulations that could, you know, have more, they want to go with this

technology. Yeah.

I mean, some technologists have, um, said point blank that, um, you know,

this new regulatory framework that the U.S.

companies have to follow might be hampering their development and putting

the US at disadvantage in the race with China.

Um, on the other hand, you have safety advocates who have been saying that we

need to be having these tests for a long time.

Uh, and when you have, you know, AI models kind of like hacking other

websites, maybe they have a point. Um, so right now there is some, uh,

testing that is essentially required. It's it's nominally voluntary, but we've

seen, you know, companies that don't comply the export controls.

Um, so, you know, Sam is going to be here this week in Washington, and he's

talking about the next generation of models.

No doubt he'll be getting questions about the hugging face hack.

Um, but also from his perspective, um, it's going to be important to make the

case for, you know, releasing that next wave of models because, um, OpenAI will

try to get Washington's blessing for that.

We'll see what the conversation is like around the kind of Finra esque

regulatory model that's that's being proposed here, just maybe wrapping up

with with you. Um, we were talking there about the

prospect of IPOs. Yes, in China.

But there the prospect of them happening here in the US as well.

How does this environment that we're in right now.

Maybe a little more heightened skepticism about this investment color,

the plans that these major companies have for for IPOs.

And we've seen some recent ones this past actually in June, we obviously had

the space IPO. And then there's been smaller ones where

you're starting to see those stocks priced below actually after they're

already trading below where they initially were supposed to price in that

midpoint range. So that's something that's another issue

when you think about the growth of the economy.

But also Oracle reporting next week. And a big thing is the credit default

swaps on a five year basis that's trading around multi-year highs.

And that according to Barclays is more what does that mean for the eye type of

debt fears. So obviously not housed in the Mag

seven. But another important key because that's

also becoming more expensive for whether it's Amazon as well as meta.

And then there's actually it's uh, has that 2 billion data center in Texas

that needs to be financed soon. So that's going to be another issue when

you're thinking about the financing with that.

So that's going to be all key of how that ties together when you're looking

at the credit side of things as well. I mean I am starting to hear a bit more

People say the quiet part out loud and that's the word bubble.

I mean, what's your take on that? Or is this, as Mark Twain said, you

know, the reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.

Reports of a bubble have been in Great Lakes.

And I feel like the because of the earnings that have backed up growth,

whether you're talking about from a profit perspective, it's very different

than the.com bubble fears, because Pets.com is always the famous example

people want to point to you. I mean, these companies have the

earnings to back it up. So it's a little bit different than a

bubble. But bubbles can go on for years too.

But a lot of my sources tend to push back on things like that.

Just tension continues and there you get surface tension.

I like that say smarty pants. All right Jasmine, she covers equities

for us. She's our senior equities reporter.

And Maggie Aislinn she's our tech reporter.

Thank you both so much for joining us. We're coming up.

Your midterm elections are entering the final 100 days.

It's hard to believe that, but we were hiding away from the midterms.

Don't want to talk about it. Elections bring that.

But we're gonna have we are. Democrats have their eye on the state of

Maine with hopes of flipping a key Senate seat.

There is Susan Collins looking somewhat vulnerable.

Report from the Pine Tree State. As this weekend continues, the Democrats

in that state, after a lot of travails, now have a nominee who will be going up

against Senator Collins here. In that election, we'll see if he can

agree on the amount of money that Senator Collins has raised, all that

coming up here soon on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg.com, and

on the Bloomberg Business app. Stay with us.

Thanks for joining us live on Bloomberg this weekend.

I'm Lisa Mateo. Let's update you on today's top stories.

Two of the greatest outfielders of their generation and the best power hitting

second baseman in MLB history will have their day in Cooperstown today.

Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones and Jeff Kent they'll be officially inducted into

the National Baseball Hall of Fame this afternoon.

Well, to golf now, where the 3 a.m. open enters its final day of play in

Minnesota. Topping the leaderboard is 21 year old

Jackson Koy. Then at 21 under 20 under par.

And he's followed by a two way tie in second place between Ben Coles and

Emilio Grillo at 17 under par. Well, pop singer Katy Perry speaking out

against the Trump administration for using her song firework in a social

media post without her approval. The video, posted on the white House

TikTok account, shows footage of military attacks, with the caption Iran

has been warned. While in a post on ex, Perry wrote that

using her song to soundtrack destruction and violence is a complete violation of

everything her song stands for. Well, it's the final day for Comic-Con

in San Diego. The four day event is the nation's

largest comic and pop culture convention that includes celebrity panels, studio

reveals across comics, movies, television, and also gaming.

Now, each year, it draws hundreds of thousands of fans dressed as your

favorite characters. Honestly, my main motivation is seeing

the smile on people's faces when, like they see someone like, I'm to like the

joy when you're a kid and you see like a character, you know that you like in

seeing someone like play. It just like brings joy.

I like doing that for people. Uh, well, the big news out of Comic-Con,

though. Ryan Gosling was announced as the star

of Marvel's new Ghost Rider film. Ryan Gosling getting in on the action.

I don't know what that is. I'll have to go look.

It goes right away. I've never been to this of you.

I in New York, I've covered it many times.

Oh, yeah, I covered the box. I used to cover the Baltimore when I was

rival. I, however, never did it in costume.

I wonder if Lisa Mateo can say the same thing.

There may or may not be a Wonder Woman somewhere in the interwebs going to

scour the archive internet and do your thing.

Audience though the internet never dies. Thanks.

Lisa. Thank you.

All right. As we begrudgingly spoke about earlier,

we are just 100 days until the November midterm election, with Democrats hoping

to regain control of one or possibly both, chambers of Congress.

One of the most closely watched races is in Maine, where Democrats selected Troy

Jackson as their nominee for U.S. Senate after the scandal involving

Graham Plattner. Jackson will face Susan Collins in the

fall, who is running for an historic sixth term in the U.S.

Senate. Joining us now is my friend, former

colleague Alex Seitz, while he's now deputy editor for Maine's Midcoast

Villager newspaper. Maine is the backdrop to Maine, and I

confess, I always pick up the paper when I'm in Maine at the Hannaford or

Sherman's, wherever I find it available. Alex, great to see you.

And, uh, before we start talking about what happened yesterday, where things go

from here, let me play a bit of sound from Troy Jackson at that convention

yesterday talking about his path forward.

There is a place in this campaign for all of you.

There is work for you in this movement. And I will spend every day now through

November earning that trust, because today we turn the page today.

This becomes a general election campaign.

And today we begin the work of defeating Susan Collins in November.

Alex, let's just start with what the vibes were like.

Uh, in that center yesterday, you had the Democrats there.

There was a lot of anxiety kind of going into this in the last couple of weeks

about how much discord or debate or dissent there might be among Maine

Democrats. It seems like that wasn't manifest at

that event yesterday. Yeah, David, and thanks for having me.

Uh, this was a fairly anticlimactic ending to a very, uh, tumultuous

Democratic Senate primary that was originally supposed to end with Governor

Janet Mills winning. She was the pick of Chuck Schumer and

the Washington establishment. Then Graham Plattner, this unknown

oyster farmer, came out of nowhere, totally dominated, won the primary with

72% of the vote just last month. Uh, June 9th was that primary date.

But then, of course, uh, allegations the really the last of many scandals, uh,

forced him to withdraw on July 10th, putting the Democratic Party in a

really, uh, sort of unprecedented situation of having to pick a new

nominee before a legal deadline. They had just a little over two weeks to

do it. And, uh, it looks like it could be

heading for this messy convention, uh, where, you know, delegates would battle,

but it ended up that Troy Jackson just kind of out organized all the other

candidates, dominated the delegate selection process, and, uh, essentially

ended up with the coronation yesterday. The vibes were were good.

People were, uh, excited and, you know, ready to move on and focus on Susan

Collins after the entire, uh, primary. But these were the diehards in the room

there. Those were the, you know, your highest

information. Dedicated Democrats.

Troy Jackson is still introducing himself to the rest of the party in the

rest of the state. He just ran for governor in last month's

primary, came in third. So that's what his remarks that you

played are about him still, uh, doing the work to, you know, introduce

himself, get Democrats to know him, and then rally around him to defeat Susan

Collins, because it is going to be a huge battle.

Uh, the Republicans are already have a big advantage in fundraising.

He's got to catch up to that, catch up to the organizing, the hiring and all

the infrastructure that goes into winning.

What's going to be one of the biggest Senate contests in the country?

They're playing know what can understand northern attitude I do what I do love.

No, I can't, I'm not gonna lie. It's very interesting to me because you

think the Democrats would have learned this lesson with what happened in the

presidential race, you know, clinging too long to a candidate that had some

clear issues. I mean, this grand Platner was snake bit

from from the beginning and a very controversial candidate.

You know, now they're scrambling in a race that it seems like Democrats could

have won. But when you look at the polling,

Jackson is up slightly 49% to 46%. That's it seems to me like that's within

the margin of error, especially with 3 to 3% still undecided how much you think

the Platner scandal scandals, plural, are going to weigh down this candidate

and continue to weigh down Democrats in the race, even if it's just when it

comes to turnout? Yeah, I mean, there are Republicans are

certainly counting on the Platner scandals to weigh down Jackson, who,

like I said, is not the best one. No, there's 15% in that poll.

Still don't have enough of an opinion about Jackson.

So, uh, the RNC yesterday put out of air video of grand planners face morphing

into Troy Jackson. Uh, another Republican group put out a

TV ad in which it connects Jackson directly to Platner.

And that's a fair, um, attack. They were very closely aligned.

I actually went to an event where Graham Platner was catering a Troy Jackson

event. This is before Platner was a known

quantity at all. They had similar policies.

They were both endorsed by Bernie Sanders in their primary.

They campaigned together. Uh, that said, they're very different

personalities. Troy Jackson is an actual blue collar

guy. Um, not like Platner claim to be.

He's from the interior of Maine, not the coast.

About 250 miles from the coast. This tiny town of Allagash that had, I

think, 237 people in the last census. Most prominent thing there is a chainsaw

museum. He's a fifth generation logger, so a

very different personality, uh, also with more insider experience.

But this is going to be something that Jackson is going to have to deal with.

He, Platner, as he was withdrawing from the race.

Kind of wanted to tee things up for Jackson.

And, uh, it took Jackson saying, I don't want anything to do with Graham Plattner

for for that to kind of go away. But those connections are going to

remain very prevalent for a candidate who is not super well known yet to a lot

of Maine voters. Alex, last question here is about the

introduction he has to make to voters, donors outside of the state of Maine.

And I think you know this extremely well.

Uh, a peculiarity of this race is how important it is on a national level.

So, yes, Mainers are getting to know this candidate.

They know Susan Collins, of course. Uh, but we saw Graham planning to raise

a ton of money from outside the state of Maine.

You look at the war chest that Susan Collins and affiliated groups that back

her have amassed. It's sizable.

Um, how is she going to do that? What do we know about the way in which

he's going to be going, hat in hand, to people outside of the state of Maine to

get money to back his candidacy? Troy Jackson.

Yeah. Troy Jackson is not somebody who has a

long history of, you know, hobnobbing with the wealthy and, uh, bringing in

lots of money, uh, at all. Platner was able to do a lot of

fundraising with a small dollar donors, but he's got a lot of ground to make up.

Uh, there's something like 13 million already reserved from Republicans.

That said, the best thing going for Jackson, and really, all he needs to say

to Democratic donors is Susan Collins control of the Senate.

She is the most vulnerable Republican running for re-election this year.

Uh, Maine is a blue state. It you know, should.

I'm doing air quotes here. Vote Democratic.

It should, uh, have a Democratic senator in office.

That's the case he'll make and that he's going to say, all we need to do is get

our message out and bring those Democrats home.

Susan Collins has had this ability. She's proven time and again to win

crossover voters in 2020. Joe Biden won the state with nine

percentage points, and then she ended up winning with nine percentage points on

her own same ballot. A bunch of voters cross party lines.

So he just needs to get enough money to get the message to those Democratic

voters about the stakes for Trump, for the Supreme Court, for everything that

comes with control of the Senate. Looks like it's well, great to see you

of the Midcoast Villager Casino. There's a café behind the villagers

offices in Camden. You can go there and have a coffee and

talk to folks. How's your hiring?

You let me know. I love this job, but this is all looking

quite lovely. Congratulations on the gig and let us

know. Thank you for joining us.

Appreciate it. All right.

When we come back, it is time for Betty Dubs, how the younger generation is

making the most of their future retirements.

Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend or BT dubs I'm Christina Ruffini with

David Gura, and Lisa Mateo is here to run you through some of the stories you

might have missed this week. Lisa, what did you got?

All right, so what age did you guys start putting into retirement?

I was not where I thought that question was going.

My goodness. Let's keep it light, okay.

Every Sunday I drink the coffee. David, you want to take this one?

No. What is it, like 30 2020?

Okay. 2020.

When I, when I got my first full time job at my old network, one of the old

guys said, you will max out that 401 K contribute contribution.

And he was right. So I've done it.

So I did excellent. Well, this is the topic of our latest

Bloomberg article. It's called Gen Zs retirement Max or yes

two axes. Yes.

Choosing savings over doom spending. So a lot more Gen Z ers.

They're they're putting away half their income and they're living cheaply away

in half their in their income. I'm telling you.

And you know what they're saying. New York resident I would say they're

starting at 19. Wow.

This is at what age is it. So many of them are living at home.

It's because a lot of things I think Social Security is going to run out.

Um, they think that I is going to take over a lot of their jobs.

So they want to be financially secure. So maybe they don't have to take a job

they don't want and stick with it just because they need the money.

So they want to have the money straight and banked away now.

So it's interesting. It's something that they're doing that

with their level of commitment is maxing.

Maxing. It is, it is.

I'm getting tired of that one. 000 yeah.

Wow. That's so this wasn't a change.

This hasn't been happening for long. It is part of a movement okay.

It's called fire which stands for Financial independence.

Retire early. So is the acronym yes.

Is or is an acronym of some adherence to the okay.

Really the. Oh really.

Yeah. But it's not even I think it's like they

really want to retire extremely early like in their 40s, early 40s.

That's really. Yeah.

Oh wow. What do you do with it.

Whatever. I mean, the world is your oyster.

If you've saved, like what, like 80% or something like that.

It's it's tough. It's tough.

But the only thing they're doing wrong, which experts are saying is that they're

focusing so much on the saving, is that they're not paying their debt or credit

cards. Oh, so not focusing enough on the

living. They're focusing on the saving down in

the long. That's the other thing is, like, you're

only young once. Like I do think you shouldn't spend

recklessly, but there are some times where you should just buy that ticket

and go. Like life is short and it is hard to

plan, especially in the world we are in today.

So you just never know. All right.

Balance is okay. All right.

As a kid, did you get allowance? Yes.

Yes, yes. All right.

Was we always fighting with Mom and Dad for this allowance?

Okay. Because.

No, it was a set amount, I got it, I didn't get it.

Do you get what you get? You don't get up.

So young now. I've been putting up my 416.

This one is from New York magazine. Okay.

This is from New York. Uh, when it's barely enough money for

both the New York City parents and teens tussle over how much allowance is

enough. Okay, so it's definitely not enough.

It's. But it's it's not enough for Boba.

And kids are having to, you know, struggle.

They're struggling. They can't get their boba because

they're getting $5 a week in the audience.

We're seeing video here of Mimi's, which you brought up in a previous yes, which

is like $30 for a very expensive frozen yogurt, but they're getting five bucks a

week. Some kids are, though, getting like $200

a week, so it's putting a lot of stress on the kids.

Parents are experts are saying stress on the kids getting 200 a week.

Well, think about it. You know, you're going out and you're

going for your boba, and then you have a kid next to you who gets 200 bucks a

week, and you're sitting there with your measly five so it's not able to get the

kids, not to mention the parents. I mean, the parents have to fork over

the money. Just saying.

It's a big money. And so when talking about Boba, I think

my daughter gets about 15 a week, but she's 18.

We know 5. She's getting that big, big tapioca feed

and the basic requirements. Okay, well all right.

I do like boba, but I don't like it. Yeah, yeah.

Okay. Company retreats.

Right. If some companies do that, you go in the

paper, you push it on. Whatever.

Would you like a beat doing here? You're doing what you're doing, okay.

Because it's a hot new thing. Okay.

This one is in the Wall Street Journal. Don't kill corporate retreats.

Make them more like a kid's birthday party.

So instead of doing these things, you know, like my nightmare do.

Okay. Can you do me like that?

The the sap Wraith or the egg things? No, I love those.

Yes, it's easier now I can you readers Cape Cod.

Okay, you're roasting marshmallows, you potato sack racing.

You're building human pyramids. Okay, you're doing all the first flight

kids do in Cross Falls. Exactly what should be doing right now.

Kids, do you. How do you think that will end for you,

David Gara well, well, well. So they're saying forget the lunches.

Forget the dinners with the cocktails, people get out of hand and people don't

know how to behave. Do something like this, and then, you

know, you can have a good time and you can bond with your co-workers.

I think we do adult summer camp. I mean, we talked about it all summer

camp, like, I'm I'm happy to go do some potato sack races, you know, soccer,

potato sack, golf and ski trips. Or sometimes they try to do those, but

they're not good because some people are not good at golf.

I would not be good. I'm not going to ski, but I'm really

good at after skiing. I'm really good at like the chalet.

But yeah, I'm a I'm a big into that. Yeah, you're good at it.

All right. Uh, big movie weekend.

Okay, so movie theaters is from the New York Times.

They're embracing the lucrative business of buckets.

We're talking about the popcorn bucket. Okay.

Yeah. And they're they're these big things.

Sometimes they're designed for major movies.

They can sell as much as $70. Okay.

I'm sorry. There's a couple behind you.

The replica of Imax, um, of directors, Imax camera for 50 bucks.

These are, like, not just cardboard. No, these are like, they're cheaper

tech. This is a 22 inch rendering of the

Trojan horse for $70. I filled to the brim with popcorn.

Epic. And they're collecting people.

Collect them. So it's a thing.

So they're very. They've got that kind of fake butter,

you know, like some soap and a sponge. What do you do with it after not

dishwashing I don't know. Um, but it's there's a few companies

actually three that make these different buckets.

So it's a little bit of competition there, but they're making good money.

I'm telling you, I don't I would not fork over $70, but I guess maybe the

popcorn is not the point. When was last time you guys went to a

movie theater? Recently?

A few months ago. I'm going this week.

Are you going to see Finally the Odyssey.

I'm not getting excited because I find the Trojan horse.

I'm not doing it. Put it on the company card.

I'd like to see that. I'd like to see it.

If someone were to sneak into your house using a Trojan horse style object.

What would. What would trick you?

I guess that maybe a giant popcorn bucket.

At least I feel like maybe some sort of, like, expensive workout equipment.

David, maybe somebody is on the treadmill hiding away.

It's a really large, giant, handmade time leaving that right in your house.

Leave you with that amazing image. All those amazing images.

Lisa, thank you very much. Thanks, CW.

By the way, Bloomberg this weekend, uh, giving us that update, the stories you

may have missed over the course of the week, available on the Bloomberg

terminal or@bloomberg.com. All right.

We're coming up on our 8 a.m. hour.

Stick with us, Bloomberg. This weekend will be right back.

We've got a lot more news ahead.

If.

Welcome to Bloomberg this weekend live from New York with David Gura, Christina

Ruffini and Lisa Mateo. The latest headlines, analysis, big

interviews and the stories that hit home on your days off.

Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend. It is 8:00 am from New York.

We are here in Bloomberg's world headquarters.

I'm Christina Ruffini and I'm David Gura alongside Lisa Mateo.

Bring you the latest breaking news reporting and analysis live this

morning. And every Saturday and Sunday from 7:00

to 10:00 Wall Street time, we are nearing the start of executive time for

the president, United States. He will be a participant in that.

That's all that's on his schedule today. We have seen some retweeting already

this morning, though, so it does seem the president is awake.

Well, keep an eye on those truth socials at to see if we got any news on any of

these topics. There's a lot of things he could be

addressing this morning. We're going to address them shortly with

our white House reporter. Yeah.

Uh, including the quiet that we've seen, the lack of strikes from the US on

around here, uh, over the last two nights.

Let's get an update on the headlines here.

First from Lisa Mateo. Lisa.

You got it. Officials in Berlin, they continue to

search for a suspect who they say drove a van into a crowd during the German

capital's LGBTQ parade. One person was killed, at least 16

injured. Police say the suspect has ties to

Islamic groups. Hundreds of thousands of people had come

to take part in Christopher Street Day. It's one of Europe's largest LGBTQ plus

celebrations. Also in Europe, French firefighters,

military crews, they continue to battle Fast-Moving wildfires in southwest

France. Shifting winds drive it into new areas.

French military personnel, while they are supporting relief operations

alongside health care workers assisting evacuees.

More than 300,000 people have been displaced in parts of France and Spain

this week. And those Fast-Moving fires will they've

had an impact on the final day of the tour de France today.

Stage 21 will now be shorter, about 55 miles down from just over 82.

It's due to lack of security officials who have been deployed to fight the

blazes. Now, the 113th edition of the race in

last three weeks started on July 4th in Barcelona, Spain.

Well, from wildfires to a typhoon, Typhoon Noel made landfall today in

southern China, bringing strong winds, heavy rain to the region.

More than 70,000 people have been relocated and over 300 emergency

shelters while they were set up from classes, work production, transportation

and other businesses. They've all been suspended.

Well, back here at home, Maine Democrats officially pick Troy Jackson as their

new US Senate nominee after previous pick Graham Platner dropped out.

Jackson spoke to the crowd at a special convention in Bangor today.

We turn the page today. This becomes a general election

campaign, and today we begin the work of defeating Susan Collins in November.

Collins has held her seat even though her GOP presidential candidate hasn't

won Maine in nearly 40 years. Jackson he's a fifth generation logger

and former Maine Senate president. Johnson is already benefiting from voter

frustration in a University of New Hampshire poll this week.

It found Jackson with 49% of the vote to Collins's 46%, well to the war in Iran,

where the U.S. has pause its almost two week run of

strikes against Iran for a second night. And that's raising further questions

over President Donald Trump's war strategy.

The New York Times reporting that President Trump and his advisers,

they're concerned that the war it could draw out that already those two

ministers, its stores of Patriot anti-missile interceptors, and also

those air defense weapons in the region, but tensions, they're still high near a

global energy chokepoint in the southern Red sea.

That's due to fighting between Yemen's Houthi militants and also Saudi Arabia.

David and Christina. Lisa, thank you very much.

Appreciate that update. Thanks, Lisa.

We're going to dig into that right now because it's not just, uh, diminishing

stockpiles. But as we talked about earlier, it's

diminishing patience with U.S. allies.

The New York Times writing that this is this hold back on behalf of the

administration is also due to a fear that it could potentially lead to a

widening war in the Middle East, alienating allies and causing a crunch

on the economy. Back with us now is Bloomberg white

House correspondent Courtney Sorani. Courtney.

Have you heard yet? We know the president is showing some

signs of being up and read Truth Social. There's a phrase for you, umbra.

Some phrase that I hear it. I really miss calling it Twitter.

Um, have we heard anything from the white House on this report?

I know it's early or even what you think the reaction will be to the fact that

people are reporting this is due not only to the shortage and the stockpile

of munitions, but the fact that they are acknowledging that they are starting to

antagonize Gulf allies. With the continuation of this conflict

and the lack of results, it seems at some point they've eliminated most of

these targets. What else are they going to hit?

Uh, and they're putting their their military readiness at risk.

Yeah. I mean, I, I.

The white House has been largely silent on this report.

They put out a statement, um, from white House communications director Steven

Chung. Um, basically along the lines that they

have always said that he maintains all options on the table.

He always prefers a diplomatic solution. But I think, uh, the reporting that

there is real concern around, um, the, uh, anti-missile interceptors and the

other defense weapons, um, being depleted is, is, uh, one that the

Pentagon has been raising since the beginning of the war.

Uh, and of course, as they, uh, continued 13 days of strikes, um, of

course, that exacerbates the situation. Um, but, yeah, I think the question

around what the U.S. strategy is here, um, is an important

one, especially for allies in, uh, the Middle East and around the world, in

Europe. Um, because there doesn't really seem to

be some sort of cohesive strategy. Um, I did speak to someone close to the

white House on Friday about this situation.

Uh, and this person, you know, noted that the president can stop and start

the war as he sees fit. Um, that he, you know, has more

flexibility than people think. Um, because, you know, he can return to

the negotiating table and then, uh, ramp up escalations as needed.

Um, but, yeah, I think patience is wearing thin, um, both with, uh, you

know, world leaders. But also here in the US, the war remains

hugely unpopular. And as we near, uh, closer get closer to

November's midterm elections. That's going to be a major pain point

for the Republican Party. Courtney, I don't know if you went to

the white House Correspondents Association dinner round two.

She did. She looked excellent.

She was. This was very good.

Yeah. Um, President Trump talked about sort of

the broader military plans he's considering in the course of his speech

at that event. Let's take a listen to what he had to

say. Just about what he's kind of marshaled

to the region. So we've hit Iran very hard.

Their navy is gone. There are air forces and 250 jets no

longer 159 boats. Good boats.

In fact, I said, why the hell didn't we keep them?

We could have used them, but 159. But all at the bottom of the sea.

They are talking to us right now. They'd love to make a deal.

I don't think they're ready to. I don't think it's time yet, but I'm

willing to listen. A couple of things I'll highlight.

There is emphasis on the fact that talks are continuing.

The other that he's destroyed Iran's navy.

I guess what I'm curious about is kind of the other side to this, which is the

blockade is in place. The U.S.

continues to have so much military might in the Middle East.

And I'm curious sort of what the latest thinking is about how long the U.S.

can sustain that. I think a lot of folks, once the MOU was

effectively torn up and that ceasefire ended, um, said maybe just having the

blockade in place would be some kind of a forcing mechanism.

But how long realistically can the US keep that mechanism in place?

I don't think that is entirely clear. I think, you know, there are, of course,

questions about how long they can fund this war, how long they can keep up, um,

you know, with the stockpiles and, uh, you know, deploying resources to the

region. Um, which is why, you know, I think we

are seeing, um, this president sort of, uh, take his foot off the gas, so to

speak, um, to see if there is a way to go, you know, come back to the

negotiating table. Um, but, yeah, I mean, these these are

questions that, um, the administration is just going to continue to face, um,

as we try and piece together some sort of cohesive strategy, as you, you know,

heard the president, uh, likes to talk about how Iran has been degraded.

Yet here we are. Um, you know, uh, he was overseeing, uh,

the dignified transfer of four service members last week and the fighting

continues. And now we have a new front opening in

the Red sea. So, you know, these these are questions

that are still unanswered. Um, at least from, you know, a public

standpoint in terms of messaging and how the administration is explaining this.

To that end, before we let you go, there is another report out in the times

talking about what we were kind of alluding to earlier that were escalation

may actually have the opposite desired effect in Iran, I think partially

because there really hasn't been a true regime change there.

And this is a population that can endure and has endured a lot of both economic

and physical pain over the decades. It's as few, if any, of Mr.

Trump's inner circle believe the plan to escalate was why I said two people

briefed. One senior U.S.

official expressed doubts that resuming major combat operations would drive

around back to the bargaining table. It could have the opposite effect, kind

of keeping support, rallying around the flag and solidifying that extremist

base. Is that a concern that you think is

being conveyed to the president. And I'm wondering if the visit of, uh,

Netanyahu might have the opposite approach.

He's been very critical of the president ending this war, kind of in the middle

and not fully removing, uh, the, the leadership in Iran and wondering what

you think that upcoming visit will do for the president's decision to either

continue or back off from these conflicts?

Well, it's hard to predict, you know, where Donald Trump lands on, uh, they're

not fairness decision making. That's excuse me, but I will say, you

know, Netanyahu does have, um, uh, a huge impact on how he views the war or

the state of the war, uh, and has throughout this entire conflict.

Um, so I would, uh, suspect that after he meets with Netanyahu this week, we'll

hear from the president whether that changes his, um, his strategy on

executing the course of this war. Um, you know, I don't know that, but I

will say that, um, he, you know, Netanyahu, um, has had impact on that.

And I think that's why I think he is, uh, traveling here.

I mean, he's, of course, coming for Senator Lindsey Graham funeral.

Um, but, you know, also, he understands how important it is to get in front of

President Trump and have a conversation with him face to face because he has

seemingly had some impact on, um, his decision making.

Courtney, let's put this conversation about the war in the future of the war

and kind of a domestic political crucible, if we could.

So, uh, we're having this conversation just days after the administration

imposed these new tariffs under section 301 of that 1974 trade act.

And we know about the inflation, how inherently inflationary a lot of these

tariffs have been and will be continue to be.

There's a difficult dance, a difficult calculus.

The white House is going to have to go through here as this war carries on.

And as we see that inflation higher than the fed wants it to be.

These new tariffs in place, I would imagine it's become going to become a

trickier and trickier prospect for the white House.

Um, going forward, as we see kind of all of this compounding and I wonder how the

white House is thinking through that. If there's a continued Adams here to

again stand behind these tariffs, which it seems the president and his advisers

are willing to do. Uh, as all the while I look at this war

that's continuing to push up prices as well.

Yeah. I mean, I think, um, you know, if you

step back and look at some of the economic strain that, uh, both the

president's policies with regard to the tariffs and the war has caused, um, you

know, it's become a it extremely worsening political environment for

Republicans. Um, you know, they expected this

conflict to end, uh, to wrap up and, uh, so to speak, by the by this summer,

that's obviously not the case. Um, and they're trying to figure out

figure out how to message this, um, you know, uh, when they're back home

campaigning. Um, in places like Michigan where the

president is traveling tomorrow. Um, you know, it surging gas prices, the

war is unpopular, and his tariff policy has had a major impact on the state's

auto industry. Um, there was a Fox poll,

excuse me, released last week that found if elections were held today, 53% of

voters said they'd back a Democratic candidate in their district, which Fox

said was the highest score. Um, either party has achieved on a

generic House ballot in any of its polling since 1996, and that should

raise huge alarm bells for the GOP, especially as they're trying to land on

a write message about how they're, uh, you know, um, trying to bring down the

cost of living, which is the main issue heading into November.

And that's becoming, you know, increasingly more difficult as this war

drags on. Courtney, great to see you.

Thank you very much. Courtney Subramanian, our white House

correspondent, joining us on this Sunday.

Appreciate the. Thanks so much.

You've had a long weekend to go take a nap.

As we told Jeff yesterday, I appreciate you.

The latest round of fighting between the U.S.

and Ron sent oil prices sharply higher last week, briefly hitting 00 a

barrel, gas prices also rising up $0.20 since last month.

Oil futures opened in less than ten hours.

So joining us now to tell us where they might go.

Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

All right, Mike, look into your crystal ball.

What are you expecting from oil prices next week?

Yeah, that's a tough one based on what's going on in the Gulf.

If things get worse and there's more offensive capabilities and offensive

action from Iran, obviously expect a way to go higher.

But I think the key thing is we have seen a decent couple of years of trading

in oil so far this month or this this year, and it looks like it's getting

near the upper in the range. So crude oil above 80 kind of gets to be

in an area that creates a lot of Crash's demand and brings in all that supply

from the US, which is the incremental supplier.

And you're seeing the situation in the rest of the world.

So I think the bottom line for Wales, what can Mr.

Trump do to make it lower by midterms? And with that average price of gasoline

around $4.11. Now that's a problem.

He needs to do some of the questions what he's going to do.

So I don't see crude oil staying too high for too long.

It's just a question of what's going to make to go lower.

Do a little armchair psychology for us, if you would, about what's going to be

going through the minds of central bankers this week.

So we've got some big meetings. Of course the fed holding its two day

meeting this week. We got the Bank of England, Bank of

Japan as well. Your sense of how effectively they're

able to see through this. We're just having that conversation with

Courtney about how the the length of this war is so ambiguous.

What does that mean for policymakers trying to think through the inflationary

nature of these, these, uh, these energy shocks?

Yeah. So I hope they don't make mistake.

They made in 2008 and 2011, ECB did hike when they weren't supposed to be hiking,

and I think the feds are behind the curve a little bit on that.

But the key theme is inflation very high.

And it's not just because of oil. It's a key thing I like to point out is

the Bloomberg Energy Spot Index right now is the same level was as it was 20

years ago. So it's gone up it's peak, it's made

inflation pick up in the short term. But it's really not a big picture thing.

It's more likely to go lower because it doesn't really stay up.

The number one thing that's really forcing inflation in this country is the

excessive valuation of the stock market. We're running 2.5 times GDP.

That means if it moves 10%, that's 25% of GDP.

That's the number one force for inflation.

In terms of the US standpoint. It's also a number one theme in

elections and years and elections. And that's how things have shifted, is

you boost you to try to get the fed, to cut rates, to boost the economy.

And then nowadays that's bad because it's bad for you and the polls.

So I think the fed has to stay vigilant. The key thing that will help all

inflation is U.S. stock market going down.

And that goes down a little bit. Inflation is going to drop.

Mike before we let you go, I've got about a minute left.

You know, I love to talk about those durable commodities.

I know you love to talk about gold. Run us through them.

How are they doing? Are people still looking to those as a

refuge in a time of instability? Or are they suffering just like the rest

of us? They are but gold and bitcoin and

silver, there were all that mantra is really 2025 trade.

What happened is gold and not Bitcoin. And most metals went up way too much.

And the problem with gold right now, it's basically at a four decade high

versus a basket of U.S. treasuries, which means it's very

expensive now $4,000 an ounce. I think what it is, what it usually does

in the past, put in a pretty good peak that's gonna last for a long time and

might get back down to 3000 before you see a good foundation, like we're going

to stay with us. We're going to have a little debate here

in a little while. We got somebody saying, New York is

better than Miami. When it comes to the economic prospects

of both cities, the viability of living there.

I understand you're going to take up Miami, Miami, beloved city of Miami.

You're going to be defending Miami in a little debate.

We're going to have here on the show in a little while.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence,

joining us on the Sunday, as they say he'll come back here.

I'm looking forward to this. It's going to be spirited.

It's going to be spicy. A lot of people have left New York for

Miami, maybe not looking like D.C. to a bunch of like, national security

folks I know have moved to Miami, which seems odd, but that sector is building

up down there too. That will moderate, though.

All right. Speaking national security, Ukraine's

president has said he has proof Russia is helping Iran in its fight against the

United States. That's coming ahead of President

Zelensky's visit to the white House. We're going to talk about the possible

convergence of these two wars. That's straight ahead on Bloomberg this

weekend.

Thank you for joining us live on Bloomberg this week.

And I'm Lisa Mateo. Let's update you on today's top stories.

Well, after eight months abroad aboard the International Space Station for his

first mission, NASA astronaut Chris Williams has returned to Earth.

During his assignment, he contributed to research for a new cancer treatments,

advanced the production of materials to improve computers and electronics, and

even completed two spacewalks. Now, Williams was joined by two

astronauts from Russia. The Soyuz spacecraft, which landed in

Kazakhstan about two hours ago. There you see him being pulled out.

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. He's the son of former President Jair

Bolsonaro. He was confirmed as the presidential

candidate of his father's liberal party. It took place at a national convention

in Sao Paulo, and is a bid against incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da

Silva. Now it comes after a chaotic week that

was marked by fresh legal trouble and also an uneasy truce with the

stepmother. In company news sources tell Bloomberg,

Deep Seek has told prospective investors in its second fundraising round that

it's suspending the deal for now. It comes at days after comments

attributed to its founder went viral. He reportedly talked about a reliance on

Nvidia chips for AI developers and China's persistent lag in AI competition

relative to the U.S.. And investor insight.

Excitement over memory chip trade. Well, that has a bar set high for the

Shanghai debut of empty the company. It's set to become the biggest China

listed firm on its very first day of trading, after raising $9.8 billion.

Company. It's actually the world's fourth largest

maker of chips that underpin everything from smartphones to even AI servers.

David and Christina, Lisa, thank you very much.

Appreciate them. Thanks, Lisa.

Lauren is condemning a recent missile attack by Ukraine in the Caspian Sea.

Ukrainian forces struck Russian vessels being used to transport Iranian military

cargo, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

But Iran says the attack resulted in explosion, killing one sailor and

injuring another. And this attack comes just before

Zelensky is set to meet with President Trump in Washington later this week.

Joining us to discuss the wider foreign policy implications of both these

conflicts is Victoria Coates. She served as deputy national security

adviser to President Trump and is now the vice president of the Heritage

Foundation's Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy.

Welcome back. It's so nice to have you.

I want to read you a tweet from Zelenskyy, uh, yesterday.

He says since the beginning of July, we have recorded active Russian satellite

surveillance of the Gulf states and U.S. military facilities located there.

It seems like he's gearing up to make this argument to President Trump when

they meet, uh, in Washington. What is your take on this nexus between

Russia and Iran possibly providing intelligence support?

Well, Christina, David, good to be with you.

Now, this is a very interesting development.

We've all been very focused on Western Iran, on that bordering on to the

Persian Gulf. The energy flows that come out of the

Gulf. But there's also the north of Iran up

against the Caspian Sea, as you said. And that is where the Russians have been

shipping in additional support to the Iranians.

And the Ukrainians have decided to strike this.

They've been quite active in the Caspian throughout the four plus years of war

with with Russia. So not entirely surprising, although, I

mean, Russia's stretched pretty thin, so I don't know how much they have to send.

But very interesting to see Ukraine now try to proactively start to take a role

here. You know, I'm very curious to sort about

the state of play and your read on it when it comes to the broader conflict in

the Middle East, and certainly what's happening with with Iran.

And I'm going to quote from something you said here to the Hill, I think a

little while back about these negotiations that were taking place, you

call them a waste of a waste of time. And as we kind of look at this

administration weighing what to do next, whether or not to increase the kind of

military action that we've seen, find other ways to get Iranians back to the

negotiating table, which they seem reluctant to do.

What is the path forward as you see it, if that memo of understanding didn't

create the kind of environment for constructive conversations.

What's it going to take to find some sort of solution here to this conflict?

No, I think I think the, uh, economic pressure is ultimately what's going to

resolve this, David. I mean, you have an economy in Iran

which is saying it's on life support is a very kind way of putting it.

The real is reproaching 2 million for a dollar.

It was 30,010 years ago. So that gives you some context for that.

Their stock market still isn't trading normally.

It hasn't since March. Uh, unemployment's estimated around

3,540%. They may have lost as many as 3 million

jobs. And so you look at those metrics and the

kind of ongoing pressure from operation economic theory that Secretary Benson

initiated. You know, it just can't go on.

So I think the combination of, uh, you know, incremental military strikes and

that very heavy economic pressure will eventually bring the regime to the

table. I sort of think about it a little bit

like the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

You know, they go on until they can't anymore, and then suddenly you have you

have an end to the regime. So.

Well, we'll see what happens. But that to me is going to be the metric

that I'm watching most closely going forward.

I mean, but that's an argument that has been made for a while, and we still

haven't seen whatever the Persian equivalent is of Swan Lake playing on,

on state TV. There does seem to be a really high

threshold, as we were talking earlier about, for that regime to absorb pain

and to absorb that economic hardship. However, there's a Bloomberg's analysis

from Friday that quotes former U.S. Ambassador Saudi Arabia saying that they

don't think Iran wants endless isolation.

They can win over a lot of pain, but it doesn't serve their interest to have so

much infrastructure destroyed. And that makes me want to ask about what

else there is left to target. We have these reports that the U.S.

is running low on interceptors. They are also running out of purely

military targets. What is the cost benefit reward there of

starting to target more civilian infrastructure?

The things that Iran would need to rebuild, if indeed it did do that in a

democratic way at some point, and wanting to decimate the regime and take

out whatever it can. Well, Christiane, you're absolutely

correct that the regime is pretty much unlimited in the pain it will inflict on

the Iranian people. Bear in mind they're the ones who are

absorbing this. The regime itself is pretty well

insulated from the woes of everyday Iranians.

But as you said, the civilian infrastructure, uh, so-called is

essentially what's next in bear in mind, in Iran, most of and what we would

consider to be civilian infrastructure is controlled by and exploited by the

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of the IRGC, the more extreme element of the

Iranian military. So these are all what you might say are

dual use facilities. And the president up until now has been

very reluctant to strike them because he doesn't wish to inflict additional pain

on the Iranian people, unlike their own leadership.

Uh, but that may be what it takes, uh, particularly around Tehran, where the

the inhabitants of Tehran have pretty high expectations for the services that

they receive. If you start to, you know, impede their

ability to provide water, electricity, that kind of thing to the inhabitants of

the city, you might have a really bad problem.

So not a step anybody wants to take. It may be a step that the regime forces,

uh, the administration to take. Want to put something here from the New

York Times, just about the thinking of the president at this moment, about

where things go from here when it comes to Iran.

By late Friday, Mr. Trump appeared to temporarily put aside

the bigger bombing plans, apparently persuaded, at least in part by his

military advisers assessment of dwindling supplies of munitions to

defend American troops in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE.

A major attack would most likely have drawn a heavier Iranian retaliation.

Victoria Coates, you bring a unique perspective here.

You worked for this president. You saw him wrestle with foreign policy

decisions in the past. And I'm wondering about, um, the way

that he can change his mind, how he thinks through issues like this one.

I'm struck also, just by the way that his tone, his tack toward Ukraine has

changed in recent weeks. We saw him in a much friendlier form

with President Zelensky at the NATO summit, the G7 summit.

But before that, um, how plastic is his thinking when it comes to foreign

policy? How resolute is he, and what do you make

of the way that he seems to be in real time, considering these these different

outcomes are different paths forward? Well, President Trump, it really is and

is not an ideologue in these kinds of issues.

He's very much I mean, the principle of America first is what guides his

thinking. And so it's not so much, you know, what

did we do last year or the year before? It's where are the opportunities right

now. And so it makes him a very dynamic

thinker on these issues. He very much is looking for

opportunities, the unexpected. I remember saying to him at one point,

you know, you've given us an a tremendous amount of leeway as, as

policy makers because nobody knows what you're going to do.

It could be anything. And so it tends to put, uh, our foes a

little bit of a back foot because, you know, you can sort of assume, oh, he's

not going to strike. He's concerned about interceptor levels,

and then that's when he does it. Uh, so I think we should all be prepared

to be surprised. In coming hours, it's going to be a very

interesting week in Washington. Um, we have the funeral of Senator

Lindsey Graham coming up, I believe, on Tuesday.

So there's going to be a parade of foreign dignitaries coming through

Washington. Again.

That is an opportunity. And I think Senator Graham would be the

first to urge the president to take advantage of it, that folks are showing

up in person. He can have a lot of these meetings, uh,

one on one, and see what might be possible.

But very interesting if, as we were discussing, you know, Ukraine starts to

play a more active role in the Iran war, uh, that could be something that comes

out of this. It does seem like a fitting way to honor

a senator who had a lot of reach internationally, that all these leaders

are coming into town and will probably be at least trying to have an audience

with the president. Exactly.

Um, I want to play you some sounds being of Ukraine from President Zelensky, uh,

talking about his relationship with President Trump from, of all people, uh,

Laura Loomer, it seems like the relationship has

greatly improved. Is there something that you could share

with the viewers about maybe your conversations with the president?

You arrived. The tone has changed.

Absolutely we have. It felt like a changing moment in Rome,

in Vatican. Yes.

It was not long meeting, but I always had, that is, I think, historic moment

because we we changed the relations during 15, 20 minutes.

So nobody was around us. We were been only two of us.

And I was very happy to hear president and I hope and I was and he called me

and I called him and I think it was let it be between two of us, but it was very

good. The evolution of Loomer and some other

MAGA influencers this week, going from being vehemently anti Ukraine to in some

cases in her case, apologizing for going to visit the president and now saying,

you know, they are on Ukraine's side. I'm wondering if President Trump is

suitable in the same way, how much influence he takes from people like

Laura Loomer and how much influence he takes from other allies and even some

members of Republican Party have been trying to get him to be more supportive

of Ukraine. What are your expectations out of this

meeting? Well, again, I think, I think this is a

situation where the president's going to look for an opportunity.

And I look at the last 18 months. Uh, I think, you know, we had that very

fractious meeting in the Oval Office at the beginning of President Trump's

second term. But I think that actually had a very

beneficial effect. I think President Zelensky went back to

to Kiev and said, gee, this is a very different United States.

We're going to have to figure out what we're going to do.

Uh, and that's when they started escalating this drone production that's

been so successful for them, the long, long range attack drones.

And I think that NATO also got the message from President Trump.

You guys are going to have to do more. This isn't as much as it takes it for as

long as it takes, which is a bumper sticker, not a strategy.

So he was right to get rid of that approach.

But at the same time, it really galvanized our European allies to start

doing a lot more. And that has really moved the needle

going forward. And I mean, I don't know, Laura Loomer.

I wouldn't take my national security advice from her, but I think it is

interesting, you know, success attracts interest, and the Ukrainians have really

changed the momentum on the battlefield. Hopefully this has an effect on Putin.

Uh, the Russian economy is also suffering fairly significantly.

And when he starts to take some damage to the core industries that fuel that

Russian economy, that will put some pressure on his oligarch friends.

Uh, that that is what will may actually change his decision making, uh, get him

to the negotiating table to come up with a deal that's acceptable to Ukraine in

Washington, not just dictated by Moscow. All right, Victoria Coats, thank you so

much for your perspective. Again, we appreciate it.

Deputy national security adviser to President Trump and now the vice

president of the Heritage Foundation's Institute for National Security and

Foreign Policy. Thank you so much for joining us.

Just interesting to think about the importance of this funeral this week and

sort of what it marks. I mean, for somebody like Victoria Coats

at the Heritage Foundation. Lindsey Graham played such an outsized

role in Republican foreign policy for such a long period of time.

I imagine there's a lot of introspection there in across the city, sort of.

What does that loss mean for the party's foreign policy?

And also before that, the loss of John McCain.

You know, those two were were hand in hand for so often.

And it's going to be interesting to see where that leads everyone.

All right. As I mentioned, Miami, known for its

sunshine and beaches and now for its high cost of living higher than New

York. Could it be true?

We're going to break down the numbers coming up here on Bloomberg this weekend

on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg.com, and the Bloomberg

Business. And.

Thank you for joining us live on Bloomberg this weekend.

I'm Lisa Mateo. Let's update you on today's top stories.

Two of the greatest outfielders of their generation and the best power hitting

second baseman in MLB history will have their day in Cooperstown.

Today. We're talking about Carlos Beltran,

Andrew Jones and Jeff Kent. They will officially be inducted into

the National Baseball Hall of Fame that takes place this afternoon.

Well, to golf now, where the GM open enters its final day of play in

Minnesota, topping the leaderboard. 21 year old Jackson Corbin at 20 under

par, and he's followed by a two way tie in second between Ben Coles and Emiliano

Grillo at 17 under par. Well, pop singer Katy Perry, she is

speaking out against the Trump administration for using her song

firework in a social media post without her approval.

The video, posted on the white House TikTok account, will chose footage of

military attacks with the caption Iran has been warned.

Now, in a post on X, Perry wrote that using her song to soundtrack destruction

and violence is a complete violation of everything her song stands for, and it's

a final day of Comic-Con in San Diego. The four day event, it's the nation's

largest comic and pop culture convention.

It includes celebrity panels, studio reveals across comics, movies,

television and gaming. Each year, hundreds of thousands of fans

will they gather dressed as their favorite characters.

Honestly, my main motivation is seeing the smiles on people's faces when, like

they see someone like me. Like the joy when you're a kid and you

see, like the character, you know that you like and seeing someone like play it

just like brings joy. I like doing that for people.

Now, in case you're wondering, who is he dressed as?

Because that was my question. That is the rag from the invincible

series. Thank you, Producer Ryan, because I had

no idea who that was. Um.

Remember earlier, guys, I told you about the TV guide?

I could see because the studio that was on Ryan Reynolds on hold On.

I remember I told you about Wonder Woman picture I did at Comic-Con, okay?

It wasn't Wonder Woman. It was Supergirl.

Supergirl. The interwebs have found the photo

well behind the globe at the Daily News building.

Go figure. Yes.

Wonder woman, that was a different Comic-Con.

So yes, I've done it multiple times and magical costume costumes.

But yes, that was a local news days in the Daily News building.

Amazing. Supergirl at the same person, but it's

very Lois Lane. Thank you very much.

It was very fun. Thank you.

Gotta live for that. And for the update.

For the first time on record, the city of Miami, the metropolitan area.

More expensive than greater New York City.

I'm going to repeat that again. Miami.

More expensive than New York City radio listeners.

My face is not stupefied with South Florida's consumer price index jumping

36% since the year 2019. And according to the US Bureau of

Economic Analysis, Miami's cost of living has surpassed New York's, with

private school tuition, insurance costs and restaurants spending higher than

they were one year ago. All right.

For more on how Miami allegedly got so pricey.

We're joined once again by our resident Miami in Miami, and that's the right

there. And you can correct me if I'm wrong.

Senior commodity status. Mike McGlone.

Mike, you used to live in New York. You made the move.

These people who defected to Florida, what is your take on all this?

Well, the bottom line is from the top down in New York, if you get a 00,000

bonus, the state of New York and a city New York, off the top.

Take 16% in Miami. It's zero.

Okay, that's an unstoppable force. So everything else is kind of catching

up to that. Okay, but there's other I'm sorry.

Go ahead. No, you go ahead.

Do you say there's other costs associated with living with Florida like

our reporter found? You got to think about things like

property insurance. And also you have to have cars and you

have to have multiple cars because you can't get away, get around anywhere

else. And if you're trying to be cool, you're

probably spending a lot on getting a nice car, aren't there all these other

little expenses that add up? Well, I think you nail that there.

If you're trying to be cool, it's expensive.

But if you're like me, I just try to go under the radar and your commute on a

bike to the office. That's nine miles on bike paths.

It's ideal. You don't have to pay tolls, you don't

have to worry about traffic, and you get to look at all those people, sit in

traffic, say, yeah, sucks to be you. I'm good and I'm not in traffic.

But the key thing is, bottom line though, it's also it's the weather for

six months of the year is nice, but what thing?

I think it's really happening. My money is and I notice it's really

catching up. Obviously there's a traffic.

But one thing I also I've heard from a real estate standpoint, looks like we

somewhat peaked. Starting had low and I had lucky enough.

Bloomberg let me come here in 2021. And the thing is we're expanding.

But the bottom line also from our standpoint is this is where a lot of

sales are. We're getting more and more sales

certainly is. That reason is things like Ken Griffin

County is because the tax treatment is better.

I look here at the cost of insurance, a huge consideration as well because of

hurricanes there. And in this piece, uh, the highest home

insurance premiums in the nation, an average of $8,292 last year.

That's according to insure if I, uh, estimates.

Mike, I know you're very familiar with Coral Gables in South Miami and, uh,

Pine Forest, all the high, high toe neighborhoods in, uh, in Miami.

He bikes around on bikes around bikes are probably do um, but what are your

observations just about how much property prices have skyrocketed here?

I saw in and out an analogy in the piece here that you if you're buying one of

those houses on a square foot basis now, it is kind of comparable to what you

might pay here on the Upper East Side in Manhattan.

The quote I heard from a prominent real estate person, I heard he says his quote

was if I could short Florida real estate, I would.

I think it's very peckish. The one thing you also notice, the

construction cranes are everywhere. Um, I notice that I travel a lot lately

to Chicago and Philadelphia, and there's no construction crates, but here they're

everywhere, and that's usually a classic sign.

But I think so. I think we're seeing here is near very

peak type activity. But also key thing is remember Miami and

Florida kind of leads the country. If it starts heading lower it's a high

beta. The rest of the country heads downward.

But for now it's also summer. It's not the time to be here.

Come to when the weather gets bad, like it did last winter in New York.

People flock down to the snowbirds will flock down.

Christina. Mean, I'm kind of arguing against myself

here as I look at some of these numbers because I, having just moved to New York

from DC, which I thought was a fairly expensive city, I grew up in Colorado.

Um, the the price of things here has just really caught me off guard.

But when you look at what Miami is now charging, I mean, the CPI in Miami has

jumped 36%, uh, since 2019. When you look at, you know, home fans,

this article says until recently, if you moved like Mike did from New York to

Florida, you could expect this huge windfall from selling whatever your

property here was and investing it down there.

But that's getting harder and harder to do because you're getting premiums on

these. Florida, a Florida real estate.

The one thing I will say, though, is you get more square footage.

So in Miami, for the price, and if you are trying to afford New York, even if

you own your place, you are still paying these astronomical condo fees.

I mean, I know somebody who owns their place outright, but their condo

maintenance fee is like 5KA month, which is insane to me.

Is that still the case in Miami and you still are not dealing with with

homeowner fees? Well, homeowner fees, yes.

But I mean, what, like the farmers, I'm clearly not performing them, but like,

what's your take on that? Is it still better to get an apartment

Miami. It's cheaper or it's not.

I like the year round fact that I can. I can live by a beach and commute nine

miles and year round. I don't have to wear, like, boots and

the hat and gloves all the time. But one thing that happened right away

and it was I did get hit with assessment.

The first we moved in partly because of what happened to Surfside.

Fully expect that. But now it's like, where do we go from

here? And I think one thing has the thing is

we've leveled out and the bottom line is where is the migration?

Most that's happening in this country? It's not just New York.

I'm, you know, actually originally from Chicago.

It's that migration away from high tax states towards lower tax states.

To me, that's an unstoppable force. It looks like Miami somewhat probably

peaked for a while at such high levels. Mike, let's talk about food in this

piece on the terminal. There's a great line.

It's either carbon or a Cubano that there's not much in the way of kind of

mid great options here when it comes to to food.

So it's you've kind of navigated your new city.

Do you find that to be true. Has the kind of of all the ancillary

things kept up with the building of residential towers and commercial

towers. I think so I have never had a problem

getting good food at a decent price. Everything's gone up, but, um, I guess

I'm kind of low rent. I don't wait in line at restaurants.

Typically, if I have to make a reservation, my wife does that, but I'm

good with that. I haven't found a major difference.

And, uh, it's just the the it's. I don't find that much difference.

Also depends on your level. Like, if you're not trying to be cool,

which I'm not, I find no problem with the food.

I just I love that you ride a bike. I would not have had that on my on my

pegboard for you. I'm wondering.

It is a fun story, but I, I'm wondering what this this rise and gentrification

is almost the wrong word. But you know, these high rises and this

higher standard of living is still the growth, you know, urban growth it has

done for. We're talking on a very high end here.

I'm wondering if this is putting the squeeze even more on medium income and

lower income families, the communities that make Miami kind of what it is.

It certainly is. One thing that's fairly clear in Miami

that I actually love is I am a gringo. In many parts of Miami, I mean language,

the first language is Spanish. They go to Fort Lauderdale, the first

language is English. But I do enjoy that.

I enjoy the multicultural environment, but it's getting much harder for your

average person if they don't own a place, if they own a home that's from 20

years ago, those homes have gone up a lot.

But if you're just renting, yeah, they're starting to fall behind.

It's getting more and more difficult. Our senior commodity strategist, we're

told, is very self-effacing. I've learned a lot about Mike.

I have to I think I need to come out to New York and we can we can learn more

about man. Mike McGlone, appreciate you playing

ball with us here as we talk about that story.

Again, just fascinating to see how that's changed.

It does seem like almost any urban area though.

It's just getting more and more expensive.

There are very few affordable cities lasting.

All right. Stay with us Bloomberg.

This weekend continues right after this.

Welcome back to Bloomberg this weekend I'm Christina Ruffini with David Gura.

All right. We already know a lot about Jeffrey

Epstein's network of powerbrokers, politicians, business leaders and

celebrities. But a new Bloomberg analysis sheds light

on a different network. That's a shadow network of modeling

scouts and fixers who lured girls and young women into Epstein's orbit and

brought him to them. Epstein's travel operation was enormous,

involving more than 3700 commercial flights.

Lindbergh senior editor Peter Gast is on a team of Bloomberg journalists that

analyze flight records and other documents.

We spoke to him earlier. When we started looking into this, we

were aware that Epstein had clearly built a network that enabled him to

recruit women, um, from all over the world who could then be brought to his

properties. But it wasn't really clear who those

people were. We had sort of victim testimony saying

that some people had been brought in through the modeling industry, others

had been brought in, hired as assistants, and so on.

Um, they came from one of the worlds, often Eastern Europe.

So what we did was to look for the evidence in the DOJ files as to who

those people might be. Now, among those, they were people that

we have already had, uh, had named, I think, in some of the testimony.

They were model scouts. They were people who sort of were

broadly attached to Epstein's or the network.

Some of them potentially knew, uh, the circumstances that they were recruiting

people into, others he didn't. It was surprising to me how much of it

seemed, at least on the face of it, to be kind of, I don't want to say

aboveboard, but through normal commercial routes.

Right. These are commercial flights.

This is a normal type credit card. These are hotels, not, you know, safe

houses. There was a way to track this.

Um, but it's only come to light kind of afterwards.

One of the things you write is he recruited victims from the same country

where he cultivated political influence. That implies, experts said, that the

shadow organization was only possible because of the protections and

privileges that Epstein received from his elite contacts and status as a

billionaire. Can you talk broadly about how that

might have worked? Sure.

So, well, what we're looking at when we mapped out how the flight network worked

and where the flights were coming from and going to.

These were flights often booked for women in Eastern European countries, or

in some cases, Brazil and other countries where the power networks they

had cultivated probably gave him a sense of impunity.

Right? Um, if he is moving in circles, that

includes, um, the most powerful people in that country, it is very difficult to

then come forward and challenge him. It was also able to operate above board

purely because he was just looking at these flights or his his staff were

booking these flights through commercial services, and nobody appeared to be

looking at it systematically and saying, okay, well, there's a pattern emerging

here. It's a question of whether they should

have been looking for that. Um, but when we when we can have

extracted these, um, these flight records from the DOJ files and we mapped

them out and we showed that pattern, we showed where the flights were coming

from, where they were going to, how they were being booked for third parties and

so on. Pretty much all of the experts we spoke

to immediately said, oh, I recognize that.

That looks like an organized crime network.

Wow. What did we learn through this reporting

and analysis about the way that he used modeling agency?

So you mentioned he was an investor in modeling agencies.

How did he kind of lean into that to to advance his his objectives here?

So in some senses, he didn't have any formal role in the modeling business,

but he had links to people within the industry.

And as far as we were aware, he invested in another modeling agency called Mk2

um, which has been part of probes in France and of the places.

So I think through that he was able to sort of bring himself adjacent to people

who were already engaged in a business that fundamentally recruits young women

and young people at principally young women, and then puts them into

situations which, you know, often leave them somewhat vulnerable.

So I think what we could see through the files is by putting himself into that

world and by interacting with people who were also in that world, he was able to

get access to, to people who he could then bring into his orbit for abuse.

What do we still not know about this network, about this travel?

Or what documents are you still missing? Well, we are very limited in our ability

to say definitively how many people move through this network, how many people

were involved in it purely because the names of victims have been redacted?

Um, many of the victims also seem to be brought into the network and have a kind

of complicated role in it. So whether they were purely victims were

victims and in some way, accomplices is also very murky and difficult.

And we also will probably never find out how many people knew what was going on.

You know, the majority of people who we will speak to will deny any knowledge of

what was happening. Um, we don't know who knew what and

when. And also we only have access to what was

directly being booked through his, uh, his credit cards and his, uh, his

offices. We had, you know, the kind of half of

the conversations we don't know that below these networks, there were

other networks, other individuals, people moving money, people moving

women, um, people potentially offering women as

Grimley products for other people. So we don't know a lot, but what we do

know is the shape of it. And from that we can, if, I think,

derive the idea that maybe this was much bigger than we originally thought.

Well, that note, let me ask you lastly, just to situate what this analysis, this

reporting tells us about the broader story.

So as you've said, we know in broad strokes a lot about what he was was

trying to do and indeed did. Uh, uh, when you look at these flights,

3700 flights and that the graphic representation is extraordinary, just to

see the uptick of that after he got out of prison.

What is the main takeaway or the main takeaways that you have that you want

readers to have of sort of what he was doing, what what you've added to the

story here of of how he was he was living his life.

I think the main thing I would want to take away from this is that

the patterns that we saw familiar, because they keep on happening.

And the fact that this is somebody who left for jail in 2009 and was able to

build this network, was able to operate really with relative impunity

for a long time. And bearing in mind when he was arrested

in 2019, it was not for any crimes that he had committed after 2007.

So he was continuing to do this essentially in plain sight.

The question, I guess I would have, and I would want people to take away from

this, is that where else is this happening?

All right. Peter Guest uh, Bloomberg senior editor,

joining us from London. Thank you so much.

Thanks, Peter. Thank you very much.

We're coming up on 9 a.m. in New York the next hour.

Bloomberg. This weekend starts right now.

With. You.

Coming up on Bloomberg this weekend, a second straight night without U.S.

strikes on Iran, as the white House is reportedly concerned about the size of

its weapons stockpiles. New details and the impact on rising oil

and gas prices, and 100 days to go until the midterm elections.

Democrats hoping to win back the House and Senate this November with the focus

on a key matchup in Maine. We have a party to unite.

We have a move movement, the bill, and we have a senator to defeat.

And ever feel like you need a vacation from your vacation?

The new trend for luxury getaways. Making sure you get plenty of R&R when

you're out of office.

Welcome, Bloomberg. This weekend we're coming to you live

from Bloomberg's headquarters here in New York City, I'm David Gura.

I'm Christina Finney with Lisa Mateo. It is Sunday, July 26th.

We've got a lot of headlines for this hour, so we're going to start right away

with Mateo. Schools in Germany, they are now

offering more information about the suspect, who they say drove a van into a

crowd during Berlin's LGBTQ plus parade. Now they say he's a German citizen and

may have used a machete. And the German interior minister adds

that signs point to an Islamic terror attack.

One person was killed, at least 16 injured.

Hundreds of thousands of people had come to take part in Christopher Street Day.

That's one of Europe's largest LGBTQ celebrations.

Also in Europe. French firefighters, military crews,

they continue to battle those Fast-Moving wildfires in southwest

France as shifting winds actually drive it into new areas.

French military personnel there supporting relief operations alongside

health care workers assisting evacuees. More than 300,000 people.

They've been displaced in parts of France and also in Spain this week, and

those Fast-Moving fires have had an impact on the final day of the tour de

France today, stage 21. It will now be shorter, about 55 miles

down from just over 82. And that's due to a lack of security

officials who have been deployed to fight the blazes.

The 113th edition of the race. It lasted three weeks, starting on July

4th in Barcelona, Spain. But from wildfires, we take it to a

typhoon. Typhoon Newell has made landfall today

in southern China, bringing strong winds, heavy rain to the region.

More than 70,000 people have been relocated.

Also, over 300 emergency shelters set up classes, work production, transportation

and businesses have all been suspended. And back here at home, Maine Democrats

officially picked Troy Jackson as their new U.S.

Senate nominee. That's after a previous pick, Graham

Platner, dropped out. Jackson spoke to the crowd at a special

convention in Bangor. There is a place in this campaign For

all of you, there is work for you in this movement and I will spend every day

now through November earning that trust. Jackson is a fifth generation logger and

former Maine Senate president. Danton will take on a five term

Republican, Susan Collins. She's held her seat even though GOP

presidential candidate hasn't won Maine in nearly 40 years.

Well, to the war in Iran now, where the U.S.

has passed its almost two week run of strikes against Iran for a second night,

and that's raising further questions over President Donald Trump's war

strategy. The New York Times reporting that

President Trump and his advisers are concerned that the war could drain the

stores of Patriot anti-missile interceptors and other air defense

weapons in the region. But tensions, they are still high.

That's near a global energy chokepoint in the southern Red sea, and that's due

to fighting between Yemen's Houthi militants and Saudi Arabia.

David and Christina, please, thank you very much for that update, particularly

the stuff on Berlin. There a big story here this morning that

we woke up to this morning. The New York Times, it's Lisa mentioned

just a moment ago, reporting on concerns within the white House about another

escalation with Iran that would, uh, put U.S.

Gulf use U.S. and Gulf allies at risk.

Excuse me. That's right.

The times is reporting that President Trump could be holding off on a larger,

larger strike, in part due to a low supply of anti-missile defenses.

Now, uh, U.S. ambassador to the U.N.

Mike walls is on NBC right now or will be soon.

It looks like this was a pre-recorded interview, uh, pushing back against that

report, saying the U.S. has all the equipment it needs.

So to help us break this down, we've got Becca Wasser.

She's Bloomberg Economics defense lead, and Chris Kennedy.

He is the lead for economic statecraft. I want to start with you, because I know

you've been covering, um, the stockpile and its depletion and where we are with

these numbers. How real is the concern over the

defensive missile supply for the U.S.? It seems interesting, if these reports

are accurate, that the U.S. is now prescribing policy based on the

integrity of the supply. Yeah.

I think we are at a really interesting inflection point where right now, in the

course of the conflict, there is a huge strain on US air defense interceptors.

That's not to say that the US does not have any left, but rather that there's a

clear strain on the existing stockpiles, which are running low after, you know,

this extended conflict with Iran, in part because of the sheer need not only

from the United States, which is trying to protect bases and troops and some

U.S. allies in the region, but also the

allies themselves, who have depleted most of their, uh, air defense, uh,

stockpiles and have been asking the United States for more.

So at the end of the day, it's a pretty stark, um, place to be in.

But it's not necessarily the only thing that is dictating U.S.

military policy. We've seen this song and dance before

where President Trump has threatened high escalation, only to step back at

the last moment to leave some room for diplomacy.

We've also seen President Trump enter into feints in the past, where he said

that there will be no strikes, only to go ahead with that large operation.

However, from my experience, if I'm looking at things right now, the U.S.

does not have sufficient defenses to weather the blowback that would likely

come from Iran if the US were to rapidly and extremely ramp up this conflict.

I get to Chris Kennedy here in just a minute.

But, Becca, one more question to you. As I look at your most recent piece for

for Bloomberg on all of this, you write, the U.S.

lacks the munitions depth to bomb Iran in perpetuity.

The bigger risk is the U.S. may run a low of the right kinds of

missiles. Help me understand what we know and what

we don't know. My understanding is the size and scale

of these arsenals is is classified. We have some sense of what the U.S.

has. Um, how blind are we when it comes to

kind of assessing what the U.S. has its disposal?

We're pretty blind, but I think there are a few different rules of thumb that

we can always rely on. We've seen, at least in the initial

fighting during Operation Epic Fury, US officials said that there were over

13,000 munitions that were expended, and most of those were some of these higher

and long range missiles that are in demand all over the globe.

And so the US is likely, uh, having wound down some of its stockpiles for

those critical munitions, which means that it is either likely going to need

to pull some of those missiles from other regions like the Indo-Pacific,

which could leave a potential gap for others to exploit or try and find ways

to bolster the production of munitions, which the US is doing.

But that's a slow moving effort. We are talking months, if not years, to

try and just produce a few more of some of those most advanced, uh, missiles and

munitions. Well, uh, Chris Kennedy, thank you for

hanging in there. We do want to ask you more about the

economic impact of all this. Because oil hit 00 a barrel for the

first time in weeks. We now have concerns not only about

what's going on in the street, as it seems to drag on, and just the cost of

doing business with this level of instability.

But now you have these threats from the Houthis, which is compromising exports

not only in the Red sea, but possibly production within Saudi Arabia.

You know, they can and have before hit refineries and facilities there.

What is your take on that second front? And if we're going to see that, if we

have seen that start to pricing in the markets.

Yeah. So uh, it's it's definitely a challenge.

So the Red sea is now, you know, been the subject of several different attacks

by the Houthis. Uh, looking at I just looked at the

recent, uh, tanker traffic through, uh, through the Red sea, and it is dropping

over the past few days. Of course, many ships might be traveling

without their transponders on, so it'll take a few days to really see what the

impact has been on traffic. But we are getting anecdotal reports

about ships turning around, Having to traverse the Cape of Good Hope at the

southern tip of Africa. And that just adds time to get oil to

market. You know, on top of the the Middle East

conflict, we've also seen Ukraine ramp up its attacks on Russian oil export

infrastructure tankers. And so that's another bit of pressure

that's been growing in the background as this conflict has continued.

Becca, you gamed out sort of what the president of his team might be thinking

about when it comes to the future of this war.

And you came up with three options. Uh, the U.S.

could continue to bomb Iran, could intensify the blockade and guidance of

ships, or could launch an operation to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

I wonder if you could kind of put those in order of likelihood, as you see,

maybe order of difficulty as well, and where you think the administration might

be, might be headed right now. I think the administration is firmly in

that first bucket. They're looking at ways to potentially

intensify the air war, to launch additional air and missile strikes

against Iran, because that's the playbook that the president has relied

upon. But at this juncture in the conflict,

the president is starting to feel pressure where he probably needs to do

something different, in part because some of those economic pressures that

Chris has mentioned. So if that's the case, there's, you

know, the two additional options. One would be to try and enforce the

blockade even further. But really with that, try and make it so

that the US can get more ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which is becoming

even more of a choke point than it already was.

That means that the US military would need to shift to a direct escort

mission, which is something that is incredibly resource intensive and may

and may not necessarily be on the table at this point in time.

And then the last one is a operation to open the strait, and that requires

putting boots on the ground in Iranian soil.

It is high risk. It is resource intensive.

And once that happens, the escalation in this conflict is likely to go sky high.

And that's where the conversation that we've been having about air defense

interceptors is so important, because those troops would need to be protected

as best possible, as well as other U.S. forces and allies across the region.

Um, in addition to that, the US could also potentially look at entering the

fray in the Red sea. Um, that would further overstretch U.S.

forces and assets and particularly some of those air defense missiles, too.

Chris, we also have another front that is really impacting, uh, the price of

oil. And that's the war in Ukraine and the

conflict in Russia and how Ukrainian drones are penetrating, uh, Russian

defenses and getting to hit these manufacturing and refining facilities.

But now also, you have reports, potentially, of Ukraine going after an

Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea. Everything is connected when you look at

global economies, but also when you look at politics and as the economic

statecraft lead, those seem to fold in nicely together.

What is your take on how these two conflicts are antagonizing each other

and working together to kind of make it at a hard time for oil prices, at kind

of even more difficult? Where do you see this going?

Well, yeah, as you mentioned, the Iranians do not respond well to

Ukraine's targeting of this particular ship, which I believe Ukraine said that

it was involved in the transfer of weapons between the two countries,

Russia and Iran. Uh, I do think what we're seeing is

this, this pressure building on the global energy system.

So just stepping back. You know, the US publishes weekly

updates on energy inventories, oil inventories.

We're probably going to see a 16th straight week of, uh, oil stocks falling

in the United States. We had a little bit of respite from this

MOU period. We saw commercial, uh, stockpiles rise a

little bit, but these, uh, releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have

continued Unabated. So we're estimating that those releases

will essentially run out by October. It's possible the US could offer another

release. But these these stocks are limited.

And so the additional pressure you know, Russia has banned the export of diesel

because of these attacks. Russia historically has provided about

10% of the global exported diesel supply.

So that's a pretty significant hit. It hits the real economy everywhere.

You know, another unknown is how long China can continue to effectively pause

many of its oil imports. And we don't really know what's going on

in China, but they've certainly helped to act as a buffer for the global energy

system. Over the past five months, uh, by

essentially dropping off, you know, 40% of their imports from the, from from the

world. So, you know, there are all of these

different variables. Some are uncertain.

Many of them are outside of the control of this president, certainly.

And they're going to be adding pressure, uh, to his decision making, because I'm

listening to Chris. I'm still stuck on something you said,

which is about the U.S. kind of engaging with with the Houthis.

And my mind wanders back to April of 2025 when we saw the U.S.

do that. And there was that moment when I think a

Super Hornet fell off the USS Harry Truman and into the ocean.

It was a difficult fight that they were waging there.

And I wonder what that portends about the U.S.

kind of re-engaging in that way. How difficult would it be for the U.S.

to fight the Houthis, who have kind of reared their heads here several months

into this conflict? That's a great question.

Let's think about what happened last time.

You mentioned that there were aircraft that rolled off the, uh, deck of a

carrier and were lost at sea. Um, but there was also over a thousand

U.S. airstrikes on Yemen at that time, which

aid into munitions stockpiles. Additionally, U.S.

air and naval forces shot down over 480 Houthi drones, and that left stockpiles

pretty low for some of the important air defense interceptors as well with U.S.

Navy officials saying that they cost in the billions of dollars and that

stockpiles were nearly depleted. And that was just from some of these one

off attacks from the Houthis during that time period.

Right now, if the US were to enter the fray, it would be like that once again.

But that also means that that's occurring at the same time that the US

is prosecuting a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and using munitions and

equipment and readiness to, you know, conduct that as well as continuing its

air campaign against Iran, which is been paused for two nights but could pick up

at any moment, which, again, is depleting critical readiness, using U.S.

forces and using up some of the most important munitions that the US might

need in a potential future conflict. And, Chris, it's not just complicating

supplies of munitions and oil, but other commodities as well.

I see you retweeting a friend of the show, Stephen, who we had on Yesterday

him talking about LNG. He said a global fight for LNG is

brewing and Europe is losing. Your strategy of delaying LNG purchases

until Hormuz reopens is backfiring, threatening efforts to refill storage

for winter. What is going on there and how critical

is this? This is a really serious issue for

Europe. Uh, of course, the US is in pretty good

shape for LNG. Uh, and if we could, you know, export

more, but we're really capped out at how much we can export right now and help to

backfill for Europe and other economies. I think the challenge right now is that

Europe is competing with Asian economies that are also trying to ensure that they

have sufficient supplies of LNG, which goes into everything from power

generation to petrochemical, uh, manufacturing.

So, you know, Europe is is in a position where they need to start, you know,

resupplying their stocks before the winter.

Uh, they can't count on Russia, of course.

And there's limited amounts of export from the US.

So, you know, if this conflict doesn't resolve, if we don't get these LNG, uh,

you know, supplies coming out of the Gulf again, That's going to it's going