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Is the SaaS Bubble Finally Bursting? - Chamath Palihapitiya

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Is the SaaS Bubble Finally Bursting? - Chamath Palihapitiya

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213 segments

0:00

If I had to guess about what has changed

0:03

from 2021 to 2025

0:06

is that most companies have realized

0:09

that buying yet another

0:13

vertical software solution is not going

0:15

to help their business that it typically

0:18

adds bloat, it adds cost and it adds

0:22

people. And I think starting in 2023,

0:26

what people started to guess is at some

0:29

point in the near future, you're going

0:31

to have some AI way of rewriting all of

0:36

this vertical software. And I think

0:38

that's why it stopped growing. I don't

0:40

think this SAS market ever had the

0:44

return on equity that it was supposed

0:46

to. And I think so many companies have

0:49

woken up from this hangover saying

0:51

there's got to be a better way. It can't

0:53

always be yet another tool, yet another

0:56

program, yet another multi-year delay,

1:00

yet another price escalator. And I think

1:03

that that the jig is totally up for

1:06

software. You're referring to the

1:08

Salesforce and the SAS category,

1:11

Chimoth, and what you're doing at 8090

1:13

specifically. Yeah. Well, it's it's not

1:15

just us, but like if you look at anybody

1:16

that's rebuilding software,

1:19

it is so much easier to rebuild software

1:22

from scratch today. Like my team of 30

1:25

people can transact hundreds of millions

1:29

of dollars of work. Not because we are

1:31

so prolifically amazing, but frankly

1:34

because well, I think the team is good,

1:35

but honestly because the underlying tool

1:37

chain gives you a level of leverage. And

1:40

so if you rebuild the software

1:42

development life cycle using these

1:44

tools,

1:46

you can't help it but become much more

1:48

efficient and you can't help it but

1:50

deliver custom solutions that are

1:52

meaningfully cheaper. And I think Jason,

1:54

if you look at the entirety of the

1:56

software that runs the world, we're

1:59

going to rebuild it soup to nuts. all of

2:01

that and the tool you're referring to

2:03

just for the audience is the AI

2:05

co-pilots that are making that are

2:07

contributing 30 40% to code bases at

2:10

Microsoft and less less specifically

2:12

that because those are those are good

2:14

for individual people but the software

2:16

development life cycle is more the

2:17

horizontal end to end of making things

2:19

got it so what we do internally at 8090

2:22

is we have an entire process that starts

2:24

from the PRD all the way out to the

2:26

functioning code and we use different

2:28

techniques at each step but what you get

2:30

is a 50 60 70% increase at each step

2:35

which then compounds. And so you have

2:37

the ability of a team that would

2:39

otherwise be able to service tens of

2:41

millions of dollars be a team that can

2:44

service hundreds of millions and then a

2:45

team that would otherwise service

2:46

hundreds can service billions. Let me

2:48

ask you guys your response to this

2:50

theory. If there is going to be this

2:53

kind of accelerated

2:55

call it custom software rebuild of

2:58

business models and you take the S&P

3:00

493, do you think that we enter an era

3:04

where there is a similar dispersion as

3:06

we're talking about seeing in the MAG 7

3:09

with the S&P 493 where there are going

3:12

to be probably the biggest money-making

3:14

opportunities for investors that we've

3:16

seen in decades

3:19

between those that do adopt and do

3:21

rebuild using AI and those that don't

3:25

for 100 100%.

3:27

I had a call yesterday with one of the

3:29

largest private equity funds in the

3:31

world, hundreds of billions of dollars

3:33

under management and we're doing

3:34

something with them at 8090 with one of

3:37

their most important assets.

3:40

And when you're an owner of a business

3:43

and you can direct

3:46

specific change

3:48

and you can rip out

3:51

hundreds of millions of dollars of

3:54

software licenses and replace it with

3:57

tens of millions of dollars of highly

4:00

customized software.

4:03

It's an enormous lift to OPEX and

4:05

business model quality. So why doesn't

4:07

it happen more? The reason it doesn't

4:10

happen right now for this S&P 493 is

4:13

that the IT organizations inside all

4:15

companies

4:17

essentially speak a different language

4:19

than the CEO, the CFO, and the board. So

4:21

if the CEO, CFO, and the board of

4:24

directors of the S&P 493 speak English,

4:27

the IT organization speaks Mandarin

4:29

Chinese, and you get away with saying

4:31

all kinds of [ __ ] I'll give you an

4:33

example. I went to a CIO conference. one

4:37

person that I met an $18 billion a year

4:41

IT budget.

4:43

What the [ __ ] does that actually even

4:45

mean to spend $18 billion a year on it?

4:50

I'm not saying that this is a mag seven

4:52

company, guys. And when you take that

4:54

example and you multiply it by 50 and

4:56

100 and 493 examples of people spending

5:00

money, there's an entire cartel of

5:03

influence that's been built in software

5:05

that's going to get undone because

5:07

you're not going to be able to justify

5:08

it. Free. Absolutely correct. And the

5:10

response from the SAS industry is

5:13

changing from the per seat model as the

5:16

number of employees at these companies

5:17

continues to get lowered. Obviously

5:19

Microsoft a lot of layoffs. Andy Jasse

5:22

talking about layoffs. They're moving

5:24

from the per seat model. They're not

5:25

taking this uh laying down. Uh they know

5:28

that people are going to make custom

5:29

software. So what they're doing is

5:30

they're moving to a consumption model.

5:32

So you're seeing people charge per call,

5:34

per customer support call, etc.

5:38

And well, it's I'll tell you why it

5:39

doesn't work. It's working in

5:40

combination. Hold on, hold on, let me

5:41

finish. The other thing they're doing is

5:43

they're dramatically lowering the number

5:45

of people and the developers they have

5:46

on their team. And then a lot of what's

5:48

happening in the background is the third

5:49

piece they're doing is they're starting

5:51

to uh do rollups and people are starting

5:54

to talk about how can we take you know

5:56

20 of these SAS companies lower them

5:58

just like you're doing to compete your

6:01

thought

6:02

playbook. Well, I just wanted to comment

6:04

on this like consumption based pricing.

6:06

It doesn't work. And what I mean is you

6:09

can have some adoption in the short

6:10

term. The best example is Snowflake, but

6:13

in the long term it destroys your

6:14

business. And the reason is because you

6:17

don't know which data is valuable and

6:18

you're not going to put up with a

6:20

variable business model that increases

6:22

more and more cost because you need to

6:24

trap everything. And so what happens is

6:26

all of these other companies develop

6:29

around you. People go back to Postpress,

6:31

people go to Superbase, they find all of

6:33

these ways of saying snowflake makes no

6:35

sense. And the reason is because in this

6:38

world, nobody's going to pay consumption

6:40

because you're like, how do you expect

6:41

me to, you know, hold and store and pay

6:44

for terabytes and terabytes potentially

6:47

a day of data? It's not sustainable.

6:50

We'll see if intercom, Salesforce,

6:52

HubSpot, and we see if all of those

6:54

people start Slack start losing their

6:56

customer base or if they lower their

6:57

pricing to make it just too easy to keep

6:59

those systems in. Thomas, your thoughts?

7:01

Yeah, so two quick thoughts. Uh, number

7:03

one, Chimath, to put a kind of a

7:05

mathematical frame on this, right? We

7:07

know that Anthropic is kind of the level

7:10

zero of code generation. They're they're

7:12

doing incredibly well powering companies

7:14

like Cursor, right? I think and this is

7:17

order of magnitude correct that

7:18

Enthropic in Q1 added 70% of the net new

7:22

ARR in the SAS industry right defined by

7:25

public SAS companies right so let's just

7:28

think that the company in AI that is

7:30

most powering the disruption of SAS

7:32

added 3/4 of the net new of the entire

7:35

industry right so that's kind of point

7:36

number one I think Freedberg point

7:39

number two I think what we're seeing in

7:41

the Max 7 right where we're starting to

7:42

have debates about who's well positioned

7:44

and who isn't who's going to win and who

7:46

isn't right is actually as it was in the

7:48

past 5 years going to be a broader lens

7:51

into the S&P 493 I think inside of

7:55

boardrooms inside of every investment

7:57

committee you're going to see the exact

7:59

same conversations that we've been

8:00

having about the MAX 7 right who who's

8:03

well positioned who can win what are the

8:05

management teams maybe like Zuck that

8:07

are being aggressive and bold and

8:08

capturing the opportunity and which are

8:10

the ones that are not so for me as a

8:12

stock picker right I think over the next

8:15

five years.

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