Is the SaaS Bubble Finally Bursting? - Chamath Palihapitiya
213 segments
If I had to guess about what has changed
from 2021 to 2025
is that most companies have realized
that buying yet another
vertical software solution is not going
to help their business that it typically
adds bloat, it adds cost and it adds
people. And I think starting in 2023,
what people started to guess is at some
point in the near future, you're going
to have some AI way of rewriting all of
this vertical software. And I think
that's why it stopped growing. I don't
think this SAS market ever had the
return on equity that it was supposed
to. And I think so many companies have
woken up from this hangover saying
there's got to be a better way. It can't
always be yet another tool, yet another
program, yet another multi-year delay,
yet another price escalator. And I think
that that the jig is totally up for
software. You're referring to the
Salesforce and the SAS category,
Chimoth, and what you're doing at 8090
specifically. Yeah. Well, it's it's not
just us, but like if you look at anybody
that's rebuilding software,
it is so much easier to rebuild software
from scratch today. Like my team of 30
people can transact hundreds of millions
of dollars of work. Not because we are
so prolifically amazing, but frankly
because well, I think the team is good,
but honestly because the underlying tool
chain gives you a level of leverage. And
so if you rebuild the software
development life cycle using these
tools,
you can't help it but become much more
efficient and you can't help it but
deliver custom solutions that are
meaningfully cheaper. And I think Jason,
if you look at the entirety of the
software that runs the world, we're
going to rebuild it soup to nuts. all of
that and the tool you're referring to
just for the audience is the AI
co-pilots that are making that are
contributing 30 40% to code bases at
Microsoft and less less specifically
that because those are those are good
for individual people but the software
development life cycle is more the
horizontal end to end of making things
got it so what we do internally at 8090
is we have an entire process that starts
from the PRD all the way out to the
functioning code and we use different
techniques at each step but what you get
is a 50 60 70% increase at each step
which then compounds. And so you have
the ability of a team that would
otherwise be able to service tens of
millions of dollars be a team that can
service hundreds of millions and then a
team that would otherwise service
hundreds can service billions. Let me
ask you guys your response to this
theory. If there is going to be this
kind of accelerated
call it custom software rebuild of
business models and you take the S&P
493, do you think that we enter an era
where there is a similar dispersion as
we're talking about seeing in the MAG 7
with the S&P 493 where there are going
to be probably the biggest money-making
opportunities for investors that we've
seen in decades
between those that do adopt and do
rebuild using AI and those that don't
for 100 100%.
I had a call yesterday with one of the
largest private equity funds in the
world, hundreds of billions of dollars
under management and we're doing
something with them at 8090 with one of
their most important assets.
And when you're an owner of a business
and you can direct
specific change
and you can rip out
hundreds of millions of dollars of
software licenses and replace it with
tens of millions of dollars of highly
customized software.
It's an enormous lift to OPEX and
business model quality. So why doesn't
it happen more? The reason it doesn't
happen right now for this S&P 493 is
that the IT organizations inside all
companies
essentially speak a different language
than the CEO, the CFO, and the board. So
if the CEO, CFO, and the board of
directors of the S&P 493 speak English,
the IT organization speaks Mandarin
Chinese, and you get away with saying
all kinds of [ __ ] I'll give you an
example. I went to a CIO conference. one
person that I met an $18 billion a year
IT budget.
What the [ __ ] does that actually even
mean to spend $18 billion a year on it?
I'm not saying that this is a mag seven
company, guys. And when you take that
example and you multiply it by 50 and
100 and 493 examples of people spending
money, there's an entire cartel of
influence that's been built in software
that's going to get undone because
you're not going to be able to justify
it. Free. Absolutely correct. And the
response from the SAS industry is
changing from the per seat model as the
number of employees at these companies
continues to get lowered. Obviously
Microsoft a lot of layoffs. Andy Jasse
talking about layoffs. They're moving
from the per seat model. They're not
taking this uh laying down. Uh they know
that people are going to make custom
software. So what they're doing is
they're moving to a consumption model.
So you're seeing people charge per call,
per customer support call, etc.
And well, it's I'll tell you why it
doesn't work. It's working in
combination. Hold on, hold on, let me
finish. The other thing they're doing is
they're dramatically lowering the number
of people and the developers they have
on their team. And then a lot of what's
happening in the background is the third
piece they're doing is they're starting
to uh do rollups and people are starting
to talk about how can we take you know
20 of these SAS companies lower them
just like you're doing to compete your
thought
playbook. Well, I just wanted to comment
on this like consumption based pricing.
It doesn't work. And what I mean is you
can have some adoption in the short
term. The best example is Snowflake, but
in the long term it destroys your
business. And the reason is because you
don't know which data is valuable and
you're not going to put up with a
variable business model that increases
more and more cost because you need to
trap everything. And so what happens is
all of these other companies develop
around you. People go back to Postpress,
people go to Superbase, they find all of
these ways of saying snowflake makes no
sense. And the reason is because in this
world, nobody's going to pay consumption
because you're like, how do you expect
me to, you know, hold and store and pay
for terabytes and terabytes potentially
a day of data? It's not sustainable.
We'll see if intercom, Salesforce,
HubSpot, and we see if all of those
people start Slack start losing their
customer base or if they lower their
pricing to make it just too easy to keep
those systems in. Thomas, your thoughts?
Yeah, so two quick thoughts. Uh, number
one, Chimath, to put a kind of a
mathematical frame on this, right? We
know that Anthropic is kind of the level
zero of code generation. They're they're
doing incredibly well powering companies
like Cursor, right? I think and this is
order of magnitude correct that
Enthropic in Q1 added 70% of the net new
ARR in the SAS industry right defined by
public SAS companies right so let's just
think that the company in AI that is
most powering the disruption of SAS
added 3/4 of the net new of the entire
industry right so that's kind of point
number one I think Freedberg point
number two I think what we're seeing in
the Max 7 right where we're starting to
have debates about who's well positioned
and who isn't who's going to win and who
isn't right is actually as it was in the
past 5 years going to be a broader lens
into the S&P 493 I think inside of
boardrooms inside of every investment
committee you're going to see the exact
same conversations that we've been
having about the MAX 7 right who who's
well positioned who can win what are the
management teams maybe like Zuck that
are being aggressive and bold and
capturing the opportunity and which are
the ones that are not so for me as a
stock picker right I think over the next
five years.
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