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Why going second could be OpenAI's advantage over Anthropic

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Why going second could be OpenAI's advantage over Anthropic

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125 segments

0:00

Harrison, it's good to see you. So, the

0:02

reports are is that we could get

0:04

enthropic sometime beginning next week

0:07

potentially. Um, when we do get it, what

0:10

are the biggest questions you have that

0:12

you are hoping the S1 is going to answer

0:14

for us?

0:16

>> Well, thank you Julie for having me. I

0:19

would say for Anthropics S1, I really

0:21

want to know their sustained revenue

0:23

growth, their gross margins, cash flow,

0:27

and compute obligations. we really need

0:30

to figure out the underlying economics

0:32

of Anthropic before we can really gain

0:35

trust for them in the public markets.

0:38

>> And and do you think, you know, what do

0:40

you think the sort of vibes are around

0:43

that IPO, especially given that we had

0:45

SpaceX, you know, have a huge debut

0:48

where there was a lot of enthusiasm, the

0:49

stock has sort of languished here. So,

0:51

what does that then imply for, you know,

0:54

the interest level that we're going to

0:56

see in anthropic?

0:59

I think SpaceX proved that investors are

1:02

willing to pay for such a high

1:03

valuation. So they essentially tested

1:06

the waters for now anthropic to come in

1:09

and see if that demand remains. I think

1:12

right now people want to hop on this AI

1:15

FOMO that's attached to it. But

1:18

Anthropic has shown immensive growth

1:21

over the past couple of months. So it

1:23

could be an opportunity in the long run.

1:25

>> And then what is the read through for

1:27

Open AI? because there there are reports

1:30

maybe we're getting a delay and you know

1:32

I don't know what the latest is you guys

1:33

are hearing at pitchbook on that as to

1:35

the timing of open AI but you know will

1:39

it be somewhat contingent on the

1:41

reception that anthropic gets

1:44

>> I think the open AI story is pretty

1:46

interesting because they can get a

1:48

firsthand look into anthropic's overall

1:50

business and then learn from any

1:52

mistakes that are presented in the S1 so

1:55

it gives them a a chance to fix whatever

1:58

is required or whatever public investors

2:01

want to see based off Anthropic's IPO.

2:04

However, for Anthropic, they become the

2:07

first one to the market. They set the

2:09

standard. They set the president and

2:11

they actually allow all these other AI

2:14

companies to figure out what it takes to

2:17

reach a frontier AI level. Yeah, it's

2:20

it's interesting that you say that about

2:22

opening eyes sort of being able to watch

2:24

anthropic because I think the

2:25

conventional wisdom is like first is

2:27

best, right? Period. Um but what you're

2:30

saying is that you know there are some

2:31

advantages to waiting and seeing getting

2:33

more information about your competitor.

2:37

>> Absolutely. If you get information about

2:39

your competitor, you can really figure

2:41

out what the total addressable market

2:43

is, especially in this AI space. And

2:46

because everything's so new, if you can

2:48

fill in the gaps that your competitor

2:50

can't, then you have an even bigger

2:53

opportunity or can eventually pass them

2:56

in the upcoming years.

2:57

>> Um, and you know, then we have a number

3:00

of other IPOs in AI and also more

3:03

broadly that are that are expected to

3:05

come down the pike. AI specifically,

3:08

we've got data bricks, we've got Stripe,

3:11

um you know, we've got um Discord maybe

3:13

is going to come public at some point.

3:14

Android, you know, some of these we

3:16

don't know. Kraken filed a long time

3:17

ago. It's not really AI, it's crypto.

3:19

Um, what do you think is going to be

3:21

then the procession of the next ones to

3:24

come and what will determine it?

3:27

I think Anthropics IPO is going to have

3:30

a massive ripple effect across AI in

3:33

general and it's going to it's going to

3:35

be the missing piece that a lot of

3:37

people are looking for in order to

3:39

determine whether these surrounding or

3:41

AI adjacent companies have what it takes

3:45

to to IPO or whether it's better for

3:48

them just to stay private as long as

3:50

possible.

3:51

>> And um I'm also curious about the nonAI

3:54

IPOs that are expected. We had in

3:56

inspire brands on that list um which own

3:59

stuff like Duncan and and um Buffalo

4:02

Wild Wings. Is there you know does does

4:06

all of the enthusiasm for AI mean that

4:08

there won't be as much for nonAI related

4:10

listings?

4:12

>> I think investors will start to see how

4:14

durable the cash is whether or how

4:17

durable the revenue is. So that if they

4:20

can determine if OpenAI or Anthropic or

4:23

any of these AI companies actually spend

4:26

as much as they make and then they

4:28

compare it to a nonAI company that's

4:31

actually generating revenue is holding

4:33

on to that revenue and has a consistent

4:37

growth path. It actually looks better on

4:40

paper because the AI wave right now is

4:44

very

4:46

is very hard to determine exactly how

4:49

long these companies are going to last.

4:51

So if you look at the fundamentals of a

4:53

nonAI business and they check all the

4:55

boxes, there's no reason people

4:57

shouldn't invest into them.

4:59

>> Harrison, good to see you. Thanks for

5:01

joining us.

5:02

>> Likewise. Thank you.

Interactive Summary

The video features a discussion about the upcoming IPO of Anthropic, analyzing the market sentiment towards AI companies, the potential impact of Anthropic's S1 filing on other major players like OpenAI, and how the current AI hype compares to more traditional, non-AI investments in terms of financial stability and valuation.

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