the stock market is in a super bubble

and stocks are going to crash 50

this year

well at least according to this guy

jeremy grantham

that's what he's been saying all over

town so should you listen to these

predictions by experts should you panic

and sell all your stock

yes

if you want to lose money if you want to

destroy your financial future

but if you want to build your wealth you

have to learn to ignore

these predictions by experts in fact do

the opposite by buying stocks

let me tell you a secret these experts

who make these predictions

they don't follow their own predictions

in fact this guy has been buying stocks

if you have been checking his 13f

filings with the sec you can see that

jeremy grantham through his

company gmo llc

he owns

677 stocks and he just bought 97 new

stocks now take a look at all his latest

buys and this was just reported for the

last quarter of 2021

and he bought a shitload of stocks in

fact he's been buying more stocks than

me

right what has he been buying academy of

sports and outdoors he's been buying

visa in fact he doubled his position in

visa in the last three months right so

these are all the stocks he's buying

right att

auto home best buy

biogen booking holdings i own that as

well bristol myers squibb cabot

corporation cars caterpillar i mean he's

buying

almost every stock in the market chevron

sienna

and the list goes on and on and on and

on and on

right so i mean if he believes his own

why is he buying stocks

i mean he just bought 92

additional stocks in addition to the 677

stocks in his portfolio and if you click

on his

current portfolio

what's he owning right now let's take a

look so he's currently owning

all these stocks right so he's his major

positions are in

microsoft okay apple united health

coca-cola and usb

and you can see again these are all

his latest new holdings he has got more

new holdings than myself but the reality

is that no one can predict for certainty

where the stock market is going in the

short term no one can predict when's the

next bear market no one can predict

when's the next crash but the good news

is you don't have to predict where the

market is going in the short term in

order to build your wealth in order to

make millions in the market

why because you got to know something as

long as you own

profitable businesses or you simply by

the index it will always go up

eventually right i mean take a look at

it the last 121 years

if you simply bought the index the dow

jones it kept going up from 1900 to the

end of 2021 despite you know world war

one great depression world war ii black

monday european debt crisis financial

crisis trade war could be 90 it always

goes up in fact

if you take a look

at the last 12 years just look at this

last 12 years the s p 500 has gone from

666 points ooh the number of the beast

interesting right from 666

to

4778 at the end of 2021

so the s p 500 has

gained

616 percent

uh in that period capital gain now if

you analyze it and you include dividends

that's about 17.6 percent gain a year on

average just buying this bottom line is

that to make money in the markets it's

actually very very simple simply buy the

index or buy stocks of fundamentally

good businesses and just hold them for

the long run but the sad thing is the

majority of people never make money in

the markets the majority of people in

fact lose money in the markets why

because they read those kind of predict

predictions right they read all this

crap in the news i'm here to tell you

this if you had read the news headlines

over the last 12 years you would not

have bought stocks you would have sold

and panicked somewhere along the way i

mean take a look at all the headlines

over the last 12 years again this is

from 2009

to the end of 2021 now what happened in

2010

there

right this was in the new york times

under your money column

a market forecast that says take cover

with the stock market lurching again

plenty of investors are nervous and some

are downright bearish then there's

robert preacher this other expert right

the market forecaster and social

theorist

who is in another league entirely

mr preacher is convinced that we have

entered a market decline of staggering

proportions perhaps the biggest of the

last 300 years

holy i mean think about it if you

read this article back in 2010 at this

area he said we're gonna have a market

crash of staggering proportions the

worst in 300 years would you have bought

stocks there no you would have sold all

your stocks and missed out on a 600 game

because you listen to these predictions

then the next year the following year

was this was back in

april 2011 the following year right snp

lowers its outlook could us default on

his debt so

at that time people say hey don't buy

stocks because the us government is

going to go bankrupt they're hitting the

debt ceiling and they can't pay their

debt

and the following year 2012 now they're

saying euro is going to go bankrupt

right europe debt defaults are poised to

rental stocks the euros euro zone

sovereign debt crisis greece is going to

go bankrupt

and the next year this was in 2013

bloomberg news said a u.s default seen

as catastrophe dwarfing layman's fall

and then in 2013 another expert

doomsday poll 87 risk of stock crash by

year end

and who can forget 2015 uh david

stockman who said stocks and bonds will

crash soon and again how can you not

listen to a guy called stockman i mean

he's born to talk about stops right he's

not a crypto man he's not born man he's

stockman right and he said he's gonna

crash

and in 2016

analysts said on fortune magazine here

comes the biggest stock market crash in

a generation

in 2017

oh sorry 2018 why markets are still

heading for a crash

in 2019 are you prepared for stock

market crash

and then the funny thing is that in 2020

there was no prediction of a crash

and the market actually crashed in 2020

by 36 percent during covet but it ended

a year up 15 nua right and of course now

in 2021 or 2020 you've got jeremy

grantham who has just bought 97 new

stocks saying that hey we're going to go

for another 50 plunge in the stock

market

so the point is that every single year

for the last 120 years there are experts

who say that the market is going to

crash this year why because bad news

sells it sells news headlines and that's

what the media does so you could see in

the last 12 years again every year they

said the market's gonna crash now of

course one day

someone's gonna be right because a

broken clock is right twice a day right

one day the market will crash but should

you be worried about it should you read

these headlines and panic and sell and

not there to buy stocks no

you should stay invested and if it does

crash crash

you should take the opportunity to buy

at a discount

so as peter lynch has always said

far more money has been lost by

investors preparing for corrections and

not daring to buy or trying to

anticipate corrections and selling stock

then has been lost in corrections

themselves in other words if you're so

afraid of market crashes that you never

dare to buy stocks or you sell in panic

you would end up losing more money

than if you just bought stocks held on

to them bought them consistently through

dollar cost averaging and held them

through the temporary ups and downs of

the market i mean take a look at this

right this is the history of bull and

bear markets

from 1935 to 2018 and you can see that

market crashes and bear markets do

happen once in a while it happened over

here it happened over here and over here

and over here and over here and you

never know

when it will happen nobody knows when

it's gonna happen but trouble is people

are so afraid of these events that they

never get in the markets or again they

panic and get out too early and as a

result what happens they miss out on all

these gains

so if you simply stay invested into

fundamentally good companies or the

index and you hold it through these

periods the gains from the bull markets

will far outweigh the temporary

drawdowns from the bear markets and in

fact during those bear markets look at

it as an opportunity if you add more

shares ring bear markets it boosts your

returns even more and it guarantees

you're gonna

end up with millions and millions of

dollars in net worth over time

in fact the best time to start buying

stocks are when people are fearful

because when people are fearful that's

when stocks start to get relatively

cheap and undervalued so let me ask you

a question do you think that most people

out there are now greedy optimistic or

fearful and uncertain

my guess looking at the chat groups and

comments on youtube more and more people

are getting fearful and uncertain right

now

so one way to tell the fear and

uncertainty in the markets is to look at

the vix the

volatility index on the cboe

now if you take a look at the vix you

can see that there's a range right it

goes from as low as

uh eight for example in the last five

years it fixed

to as high as my god 85.

so generally what happens is that when

people are relaxed and complacent and

calm the fix is very low when people get

fearful and nervous the fix goes very

high

so generally when the vix gets high when

people are fearful that's the time you

want to start buying stocks now i can

take a look that in the recent period of

time since january this year when the

market's been correcting uh the vix

actually has been in within this area

right it's gone up to in fact recently

about 36

right now it's gone down to about 27 but

it's like within the 30 to 36 range okay

now

if you take a look at this interesting

research that was done

what they found is that when you buy

stocks

at a high vix for example take a look at

the fixed rates right so if you buy

stocks when the vix is

30 to 35 which is roughly where we are

now

what happens

500 days later right now again 500 days

later it's about one year so again this

is not a short-term strategy you have to

take at least a one-year view okay

so when you buy stocks in general when

the vix is 30 to 35 which are people a

bit scared you can see that a year later

you get 40

23 34 you get

pretty good double digit returns across

all the different sectors of the market

and of course

like i said uh although right now stocks

have dropped they could drop even lower

right

i've said in my outlook video that this

year i expect high volatility although i

do expect this year to end with a gain a

slight gain we can expect volatility of

the market drawing down up to 17 i've

said that in my outlook videos do go

watch that again

so sure the vix could spike even higher

slightly to 35 or 45

and that's why we when we buy stocks we

never buy all at once we always buy in

trenches we average in our positions we

buy a bid right now market goes down a

bit more we buy a bit more so if the

market gets more fearful and the fix

goes even higher to say 40 45

and you start buying stocks then you can

see a year later

you're getting even bigger returns all

right so the point is as long as you buy

stocks when a vix is kind of like above

30

you can't go wrong a year from now

you're almost guaranteed to make money

this is based on

research

for the last 20 years now another

indication of fear in the markets

are the amount of put options that are

traded right people buy put options

as insurance on stocks so when people

get nervous there's a lot of put options

all right now if you take a look at this

chart from macro charts what's

interesting is you can see that

currently

the amount of puts that are traded as a

percentage of the market cap

is at a pretty high level okay in fact

it was only at this level

back

in march 2020

and back in

2011 right

and these were again levels when people

got scared and it coincided with times

when the market was near its bottom now

again i'm not saying that this is the

exact bottom right we could still go a

bit lower if market makers that uh try

to re-test the recent lows

but the overall bull market is intact

okay gotta understand this the bull

market is still intact but right now we

are still going through a correction

within that bull market but people ask

me could it turn into a bear market

well everything is possible but i doubt

it right i would give it a 10

probability that we go into a bear

market

it's a 90 probability that we stay in a

bull market but we are in a short term

correction in that bull market

finally you can take a look at this fear

and greed index and as of now you can

see based on this index

we are at the fear level now again sure

market could go down a bit more and we

could go to extreme fear possible

but we're already within that fear zone

okay so as long as you're within that

fear zone of zero to

about 35

uh thereabouts right in this zone over

here

which is extreme fear to fear and you're

starting to buy stocks of good

businesses or the index you can't really

go wrong all right a year from now

there's a very high probability that

you're going to be

a lot higher price is going to be a lot

higher than where they are today but

again remember

buy only stocks of good businesses or

simply buy the index etfs

avoid unprofitable companies or hyped up

companies or speculative companies

because some of those may never come

back

so i do hope you enjoyed this video and

remember to keep watching this channel

for more insights may the markets be

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markets be with you