So, okay, let's talk more about the

past. How much do you think the past of

Russian relations with China can define

the future of them?

>> I've done an entire podcast on Russia

and Chinese relations that sum up what

little I know on the subject. And for

many years, Russia was strong and in the

driver's seat. And now, China's strong

and Russia's in the receiving end of

that relationship.

And the reversal is a combination of

Russia's implosion and China's rise.

Right? It's not a good position for

Russia to be in and then it's um

isolating itself completely from the

West then throws it right at at China's

mercy. And don't expect I don't think

China has ever been merciful.

>> But why would China care more

specifically? They're a

>> care about what about holding all the

cards visav Russia. Of course you like

holding cards visav Russia.

>> But they're not they're indifferent to

who leads the country. Look at Iran

right now. They don't care whether the

regime topples as long as they get what

they want. As long as they

>> Yeah. Well, we're talking about whether

they're going to get what they want from

Russia. And I'm suggesting they probably

will.

>> Yes, of course. But to what how much

does that depend on what state Russia is

in? How much does that depend on the

person?

>> The weaker Russia is the better from

Chinese. I mean, in terms of what

leverage you have over them, but

understand that getting what you want

and it has two parts to that equation.

One is the competence of your own

strategy. So that lies within your own

department and it also depends on the

incompetence of the other side and

something you do not control. And be

aware if the other side's very

competent, you're going to have

troubles.

>> But to be devil's advocate on that, the

Chinese aren't free of their own

challenges.

>> No, no, they are. Nor is Russia. And

they're just I gave you the math on

their relative GMPs, GDPs. China's just

got a much bigger piggy bank to go spend

money to do things than Russia does.

>> No, for sure. Look, look, Russia's

longevity in its current form is ticking

time long. It's a matter of time. But

this is why it's important to

>> who knows? Think of think of North

Korea. It amazes me how long that

dystopian mess, the Kim dynasty can

remain in power. It just seems to be

endless.

>> So, so at what point does strategic

dependence for Russia turn into

strategic vulnerability?

>> I think the strategic dependence is a

strategic vulnerability. So you don't

think there comes a point where we're

already past the point of too far for

Russia. There's no they can't reverse

their dependency or

>> another concept pivotal errors. If you

make we all make errors, but if you make

a pivotal error, I'm just it's a term um

that I cooked up probably based on

somebody else's whatever that I don't

even remember. It's there's no going

back to the status quo ante and the

voice choices following your pivotal

error are much worse than the ones you

had before going in. So Japan's attack

on Pearl Harbor pivotal error because

they're in a world of hurt afterwards.

It's going to be it's going to be much

worse than before having done that.

Vladimir Putin, if he had just kept with

I got Crimea at no cost and quit right

there, he would he would have gotten his

Nordstream 2 in and be making all kinds

of money that way. It's over. He's made

a pivotal error. There's there's just no

going back. The choices going forward

for Russians are worse and worse and

worse. So, good strategists try to avoid

pivotal errors. And what I worry about

as an American is whether the United

States is about to make a pivotal error.

Going after Greenland would be a pivotal

error for the United States.

>> Okay. No, that that's fair. Um but okay,

just to on the Cen Russo dynamic, the

thing that interests me is that the

worse things get, the more desperate

Putin becomes.

>> Oh yeah. Yeah. He's on death ground.

Another concept from Sunza. Death

ground. It means you are in such rotten

shape that your only hope of survival

and it's not a really high hope is to

fight. And so for Putin personally,

that's why he's going to double down

because if he goes, "Oh, gee whiz, I

made a mistake, boys. Can't we back out

of this one?" He's dead man, right? I

would imagine. And so he's not going to

do that, I believe. And I'm speculating,

but I think I got pretty high odds on

this one. But on all speculation, you

make a hypothesis and then you keep

examining it. And when the data suggests

hypothesis is wrong, by all means change

your hypothesis. So death ground is an

important one. You can also flip death

ground on Ukraine because it's not just

that if Ukraine capitulates, not only is

Suzinski a dead man, but the Ukrainian

people are dead people. The number of

people who would be systematically

murdered and their culture would be gone

is huge. in a culture affects everybody.

And so if you do that to other people,

you galvanize the most incredible

opposing alliance so that even a failed

country be can become a very competent

adversary. And a previous example of

that is Hitler with his genocidal plans

that turns Russia, which was basically a

failed state after all this

collectivization and shooting the Soviet

Union after shooting the general staff

and other people. It turns them into a

lethal adversary and it galvanizes the

alliance from hell that takes care of

Adolf Hitler. So death ground is a good

concept to play around and go who's on

death ground and who's not. The Russian

people are not on death ground whereas

Ukrainian people are. The value of

victory, what's called value of the

object, another concept, is much higher

for Ukrainians generally than for

Russians. For Russians, it's like a it

it'll be a feel-good moment if they

could actually win, whatever they define

win in Ukraine as. But for Ukraine, it's

existential. So, they will never give

up. And the Russians are just going to

be they're they're on a trajectory to

wind up like North Korea. Give it a

generation or