HomeVideos

TWO new prediction markets + a rumored Polymarket airdrop

Now Playing

TWO new prediction markets + a rumored Polymarket airdrop

Transcript

173 segments

0:00

All right, we are back with the video

0:01

and we have some news today that I'm

0:03

going to cover. So, the first one is

0:05

Crypto.com that launches OG a new

0:09

prediction market experience.

0:11

Their interface looks like this. Place

0:15

your prediction and win. If your

0:17

prediction is right, you get a cash

0:18

payout available throughout the US. So,

0:21

different from poly market which is not

0:23

available in the US. This one is

0:25

available in the US trade, CFTC,

0:28

regulated sports, culture, politics, and

0:31

more throughout the US. No use limit.

0:36

Sharps, VIPs, analytical thinkers are

0:39

all encouraged, and winners won't be

0:41

banned. So, it's available to the US.

0:45

The UI looks pretty cool. And if we go

0:49

in on these, you can see we have the

0:54

probabilities

0:55

here as well. We can see the spread. So

0:59

according to Grock resolution and

1:01

payouts uh when the event concludes

1:04

contracts settle automatically

1:06

and um resolutions rely on trusted

1:10

official data sources

1:13

in for example NFL for sports results

1:16

government sports for economics

1:19

handled centrally by CDNA without user

1:22

disputes so it seems like it's different

1:24

from poly market where you can dispute

1:26

an outcome here they get it from

1:29

official sources and not the same way as

1:33

they do on poly market. It's a more

1:35

centralized approach which ensures quick

1:37

reliable settlements but lack

1:39

decentralized verification.

1:44

And then according to Grock upcoming

1:47

features OG plans to introduce margin

1:50

trading so borrowing to amplify bets via

1:54

crypto.com's licensed futures commission

1:57

merchant making it the first prediction

1:59

market with this option. So, so margin

2:04

trading with prediction markets is

2:06

something that is uh teased and

2:08

according to Grock it's US only

2:11

um with some KYC.

2:15

So this article says from Yahoo Finance

2:18

that says Coinbase opens prediction

2:20

markets in all 50 states and this is

2:23

from January 29 also relatively recent

2:27

uh news and we can go to uh uh to

2:31

Coinbase and we can see that they have

2:33

all kinds of different crypto

2:36

predictions here. We actually also have

2:39

a 15-minute market.

2:43

So, we can see Bitcoin up and down 15

2:45

minutes. So, this one was opened

2:50

February 12th at 1:30 p.m. which does

2:54

line up it does line up with

2:57

with uh Poly Market as well, which is uh

3:00

which starts uh

3:03

yeah 130. So, 130 and and 130. So, it

3:08

does seem like these 15-minute

3:10

prediction markets are in sync with each

3:14

other.

3:16

And uh let's take a look. So, on

3:18

Coinbase, the yes contract is at 35

3:23

cents and here on Poly Market is 32. So,

3:27

there's actually already quite a gap

3:30

between the yes on both of these as well

3:33

as the as well as the no. So yeah, yet

3:38

another opportunity to do do some kind

3:39

of crossmarket arbitrage which is

3:43

definitely high on my priority in terms

3:46

of of Raven. So I do definitely want to

3:48

add crossmarket

3:51

uh capabilities, cross venue

3:53

capabilities so we can do some some

3:56

arbitrage that way. Now um I haven't

3:58

really looked more into it in terms of

4:00

where Coinbase is available. I can see

4:03

that it is not available in in my area

4:06

but poly market isn't available in my

4:08

area anyway. So I think if they have an

4:11

API we should be able to do that. So

4:13

according to

4:15

Coinbase support here on Reddit there's

4:17

someone asking about API access to the

4:19

prediction markets and unfortunately he

4:22

says thanks for reaching out. Currently

4:24

Coinbase documents APIs for other

4:26

products and prediction markets are

4:28

available as an inapp feature.

4:31

So as an inapp feature meaning that uh

4:34

they don't have an API. We'll be sure to

4:36

share any updates is if developer access

4:38

become available in the future.

4:41

So yeah for now we do not have any um

4:45

API available. And then the last kind of

4:49

related news is polyarket that files a

4:52

poly trademark.

4:54

Uh so there's a lot of buzz going around

4:56

whether poly market will release an

4:58

airdrop of some kind of token blockise.

5:01

So the blockrise inc the parent company

5:04

of the popular decentralized prediction

5:05

market polyarket has filed trademark

5:08

applications for poli and poly token

5:13

name here sparking fresh speculations

5:16

that a token launch and airdrop are

5:18

imminent. According to filings with the

5:20

United States Patent and Trademark

5:22

Office, deprecation was submitted on

5:24

February 4th, 2026.

5:26

So, not long ago was it filed and um

5:30

what people have been talking about on X

5:32

is if they do some kind of an airdrop,

5:34

some kind of a token um most likely they

5:38

will be rewarding people with, you know,

5:40

that has actually volume. So they are

5:43

talking about creating market making

5:45

bots so they can get some kind of a

5:47

volume. But nobody really knows what to

5:49

do and and if they will do a token or if

5:52

they will do some any kind of airdrop.

5:53

So I would not do any kind of strategy

5:57

just for the sake of hoping to get some

5:59

kind of an an airdrop because I feel

6:00

like that is just uh a little bit silly.

6:03

But on the other hand, if you do have

6:05

profitable strategies or some kind of a

6:07

market making strategies, I do think

6:09

that this is just another potential

6:11

benefit uh trading on polar market

6:14

because you might actually be able to do

6:16

get some kind of a token airdrop, you

6:18

know, maybe later this year, but we

6:20

really don't know uh yet. It is just

6:22

speculation. We just see that they filed

6:25

trademark on poly and uh this po poly

6:28

symbol here. So with that said, if you

6:32

haven't already signed up for Raven, I

6:34

will highly suggest you to do that. It

6:38

is on raven.gg.

6:41

This is a no code strategy builder for

6:43

prediction markets that I'm building.

6:45

I'm building this in public on YouTube.

6:48

And uh you can scroll down all the down

6:51

uh here in the bottom and get early

6:53

access. So, if you place your email here

6:56

down below, I will send you an email

6:58

when Raven is about to launch for early

7:02

access. And of course, we also have our

7:06

Discord server,

7:08

which is uh which is this one here that

7:11

you can get access to for free. I'm

7:12

going to make sure to leave a link down

7:14

below. This server here is called Poly

7:16

Traders and it's everything that relates

7:18

to prediction markets building uh you

7:22

know bots for strategy and data

7:25

predictions.

7:26

It's about crypto and vibe coding

7:28

everything related to maybe a little bit

7:31

more technical side of trading or

7:33

prediction markets. There's a lot of

7:34

talk and discussions about specifically

7:37

trading bots. So again, yeah, I'll make

7:40

sure to leave a link down in the

7:41

description below. And with that said,

7:43

hope you're going to have a very nice

7:44

day and see you on the next video.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses recent developments in prediction markets, highlighting Crypto.com's launch of "OG," a new CFTC-regulated prediction market available in the US with a centralized resolution system and planned margin trading. Coinbase has expanded its prediction markets to all 50 states, offering crypto predictions, including 15-minute markets that show arbitrage opportunities with Poly Market, though Coinbase currently lacks a public API. Finally, Poly Market's trademark filings for "poly" and "poly token" have sparked speculation about a future token launch and airdrop, with the speaker advising caution against strategies based solely on this speculation.

Suggested questions

6 ready-made prompts