welcome back to the all-in podcast

everybody I'm your host Jason calacanis

I'll put in a bunch of plugs for the

projects I'm working on throughout the

show to annoy my co-hosts and continue

the grift but it is

2025 and we are doing our bestie Awards

it's going to be amazing today we've got

so much to do today with us again for

the second time a truly amazing bestie

Gavin Baker from at trees Capital am I

correct is it a treaty Capital you put

management tradies management oh a tradi

management

okay and uh just call it House of

treaties oh no let's not get him in

trouble I

P Gavin welcome back to the program let

us know um just briefly what does a

treaties do thanks for having me here

Jason

chamama and Dave a tradies we're a we're

crossover firm we invest publicly and

privately in consumer and Tech and we go

from series a to Mega cap got it okay so

you are a capital allocator you're place

bets on technology on the most important

new companies in the world we'll get

into that and this is our prediction

show we did our besti Awards how big is

your firm Gavin oh well you just met the

guy free brg you don't just ask him how

big his firm is the audience wants to

know is this guy a player like what's

the deal roughly $4 billion okay all

right so that's about a half an inch

bigger than shth he's really worried

now's not that he's the size queen or

anything let your winners ride

Rainman

David and instead we open sources to the

fans and they've just gone crazy

[Music]

with we're going to do a really great

prediction show today and we're going to

do some super predictions this year each

bestie gets to make a super prediction

or two during the show and we're going

to take those super predictions shamal

and we're going to put them on poly

Market yes that's right if you don't

know polyk Market there a prediction

Market where people can place a wager a

bet an investment in one or the other

side and uh they're p is my image good

it feels like it's

blurry it's a little blurry that's the

Avalanche coming and so I guess is that

the Maga Avalanche what is this

Avalanche is that people screaming

across the border what's the metaphor

here TR up is that the huge orgasm uh

that you're about to lay down in 2025

rocking my friend no no this is a shout

out to my friend Ruben Oland who's the

director of a bunch of really amazing

movies um including the one behind me

Force measure there you go all right we

did an amazing partnership with poly

Market freeberg you want to detail the

partnership and some way you I think you

helped work on it well we obviously have

talked to Shane at Poly market for some

time and we set up a a deal with them

where we could put our own markets up on

the on the site so we're going to talk

about a couple of our predictions this

year and then poly Market will post them

up on

on their site and people can can trade

them obviously xus and we're really

excited about it because it'll allow us

to kind of track how we're doing and

give us the opportunity on an ongoing

basis to create market so there'll be an

all-in section on poly Market where you

can kind of go in and see the all-in

market it's going to be really cool

awesome

fantastic and so uh we just got we're

all wrapping up our our uh ski trip here

Nick I understand there was some footage

some found footage from the bestie

skiing is that true

oh here we go look at this here I come

down the mountain Gavin I want you to

rate everybody skiing here I come

looking great there comes looking good

and then Here Comes somebody I think the

technical term Joe Lonsdale does for

that third person is a beep beep okay

here we go and look at this technique

coming down look at

chamama chamat you really Advanced since

last season look at him cutting those S

turns Gavin what do you think listen to

me I I made a very strategic decision to

stop snowboarding so I could learn to

ski with my kids it is so hard to learn

how to do something in your 40s no I

mean if you've never done it but I do

appreciate what you and your brother did

for me last season I learned a couple

things so it's been my thir there with

the black bomber my third season it was

great I am absolutely amazed at the

progress you're making freeberg I'm

amazed you made it onto the mountain you

you were out there a number of days

you're getting it done I needed new boot

and I tore my MCL last season so I'm in

it got really tweaked when I went out

there but I'm good it was great I had a

lot of fun I mean I four days yeah you

ski four days okay I finished my 16th

day yesterday but I took today off just

to get prepared here yeah I got 16 I do

the executive program Gavin I go off for

an hour and a half to three hours Zip

Zip Zip 10 runs and I'm done I only ski

in the morning yeah that's the way to do

same same same and and at 1215 have

lunch relax get a little work done need

a healthy healthy mix of AA ski and ski

Gavin how would you compare yourself to

what you just witnessed in that video

your skiing ability where would you rank

yourself clearly it's me chamath

freeberg in that ranking where would you

land in the ranking I well I would say

i' make two observations first like I'm

in the bottom percentile in terms of

natural athleticism but I do have many

many thousands of hours skiing great

okay and I would just leave I would just

leave that yes well then we'll be going

out with you next year new best

all right we got to get to it we're

going to start off with politics

gentlemen we got to keep this moving

because there's so many predictions

we're going to do our 2025 prediction

for biggest political winner now last

year well yeah I think we we got it kind

of wrong freedberg you said independent

third party in the US and we did see

some of that with you know the breakout

of Robert Kennedy maybe chamat you said

independent Centrist we didn't get there

with that one and I said Darkhorse

presidential candidates maybe I get a

quarter Point Credit there with wait

hold on what do you mean we didn't get

there independent centrists won the

election for mean independent Centrist

won the election really that's what you

believe yeah okay I didn't think that it

was the Independence but okay I think

independent Centrist swung the election

for Biden in

2020 and then I think they swung the

election for Trump in 2024 huh is that

statistically correct you think freeberg

you about that independent centrus did

the election or Gavin what do you think

I think it's right like I think a lot of

there were a lot of people not just

cists but a lot of people who had been

lifelong Democratic voters who voted for

Trump so I do think Trump won the cists

I mean Trump trump won

everything essentially yeah okay shabat

who's your prediction for the biggest

political winner of 2025 my biggest

political winner for 2025 are fiscal

conservatives I think that we are going

to Ted a very important Concept in

2025 and I hope it works which is that

of

austerity and the reason why austerity

has to work is that the only thing left

after austerity is to cut

entitlements and I think that in doing

this we are going to figure out how much

waste Fraud and Abuse exists in the

United States federal government I think

that that's going to spill over to a lot

of State elections

and I think that the fiscal

conservatives that have been clamoring

for a more restrained approach to

spending will have their Day in 2025

okay fiscal conservatives from schoth

freeberg who's your prediction for the

biggest political winner of 2025 I also

took a a class-based approach I chose

young candidates so Trump cabinet picks

have an average age of 40 to 45 years

old compared to the Biden cabinet the

average age is a little over 59 almost

60 years old and I do think that this

marks the beginning of a new trend in

the kind of age range of political

candidates shifting younger so I think

that this is something we should expect

as candidates start to emerge for the

midterms by the end of 2025 we'll start

to see younger new names start to pop up

that deliver resident messages and

aren't part of kind of the Old Guard of

you know the Aging political class so I

think that's a trend kind of underway

now excellent young candidates so we got

fiscal conservatives young candidates

Gavin what do you got for the 2025

prediction for biggest political winner

I would say Trump and centrism for my

choice for 202's biggest political

winner I went with something similar to

you freedberg I said Gen X and the Elder

Millennials if you look at the notable

Gen X appointments you got Elon with do

you got saxs obviously Marco Rubio my

God it just goes down and then if you

look at the Elder Millennials JD Vance V

fake Tuli just a lot of young people and

this is going to be absolutely fantastic

I think because they're going to start

thinking not just about themselves uh as

the boomers are doing with Social

Security taxes real estate all the

different issues that they tend to pick

for themselves they're going to start

thinking about maybe their own kids and

themselves so yeah it's obviously a sea

change is underway so they have a folks

for our predictions for political winner

let's go with political loser here

prediction for political loser we start

off with You Gavin we'll do this a

little round robin here we'll snake it

around Gavin what do you think who'll be

the biggest political loser of

2025 I think Putin I think Putin is

going to lose bigly um so if you are

xiin ping you know xim Russia is a

client state of China at this point and

if you're xiin ping what is happening is

now a disaster for you because Europe is

starting to rearm and which is which

will only accelerate this year

that will allow America to take

resources out of Europe and put them in

uh Japan and South

Korea and all over the Pacific and that

makes it a lot harder for you to do what

you most want to do which

is reunify um China and Taiwan or invade

Taiwan uh let's call it what it is and I

just think X is going to begin

decoupling from Putin if you're Trump

you want to show that you're independent

that you're not um inthrall to Putin in

any way so I think Trump is going to be

a lot tougher on Putin than people think

and I think he's going to get a very

very uh a deal that's very very bad for

Russia and Ukraine and you know you've

lost half a million people and for what

for what exactly yeah and it's a

thousand over a thousand days into this

nobody from the West H you know in the

NATO or America no no soldiers have lost

their lives from our side we've just

given them weapons and so it's a

humiliating defeat so far for Putin I

agree with you freeberg your prediction

for the biggest political loser of 2025

friberg's prediction I'm gonna predict

the proar neocons who are going to go

head-to-head with the JD Vance and Elon

and others of the world and I think that

they're going to lose and I think that

there's going to be this kind of big

crack in the establishment of this this

neocon

movement that's been very Pro conflict

around the world and we've heard it in

the speeches and in the commentary from

JD and others and I think this is going

to be the year it's all gonna kind of

come to a head I think they're gonna end

up on the losing side can iav can I take

the other side just just a little bit so

I think that's why you're here yeah yeah

I think it's right in reality but I

think you know Trump said something very

interesting about John Bolton he said

the guy was absolutely crazy but it was

awesome having him in the room when you

negoti deals people looked at this guy

looking angry red in the face so excited

to hit the nuclear button so excited to

go to war and you ended up with much

better deals so I think you're going to

see probably a lot more bellicosity from

the Trump Administration than anyone

expects and that's just to get a good

deal for you know between Russia and

Ukraine and then it's to get China to

kind of decouple from Russia so I think

the um in reality I think you're right

David but I think there will be a lot of

rhetoric that is at odds with what

you're saying before you end up being

right we already see it with Canada with

NATO with Taiwan there's a lot you know

we're gonna do this or this the tariffs

obviously there's just a lot of very

aggressive posturing leading up to the

negotiations that are hopefully going to

get the US good deals we'll see shamat

you have a prediction for your 2025

biggest political loser predictions hard

to do the uh biggest political loser of

2025 is going to be progress iism so

November of last year right after the

election I flew to London and went up to

Oxford and I spoke at the Oxford Union

and very impressive my speech was a

full-throated defense of

Maga but it was mostly an explanation of

Maga and it was sort of

the antidote to Progressive instincts

that had been riddling the Western G8

countries and was starting to basically

come on gun and when you look at what's

about to happen in 2025 in Canada Justin

Trudeau is going to lose massively to

Pier

POV in Germany afd looks like they will

win in France if there's a deadlock and

it goes into an election more than

likely Marine Leen is going to win and

then in the UK where you see this

unfolding child rape scandal where

allegedly upwards of hundreds of

thousands of young girls over the course

of 20 plus years were being raped by

organizations of Pakistani Muslim men

who were then not

prosecuted for Fears of stoking

islamophobia as it turns out by the

current prime minister Kier

starmer and if all of that comes to pass

in the UK I think you're going to see

the labor government fall and I think

you're going to see Nigel farage win so

what do all of these countries look like

like by the end of

25 it's very much a repudiation of this

class-based identity politics and I

think that has enormous Ripple effects

all throughout the world and so I think

the biggest political loser for 2025 I

think stands to be progressivism quote

unquote what they what we labeled

progressivism I I took something very

similar I said the racist vocal minority

of each one of these parties and there's

a little bit of this on either side you

have Dei on one side and then you just

have outright racism on the other side

and it's probably 5% of Maga and 5% of

the left and just to recap last year's

political predictions for 2024 our

predictions for political loser was I

said Netanyahu freeberg you said Ukraine

and shath you said the coke family the

GOP nailed that one I nailed that one

freeberg any thoughts on last year's or

anything on the Republican side more

than the Koch family do you think I mean

explain for the audience who maybe

aren't as into it well I think

essentially 2024 was the end of the

Republican party as we knew it and I

think what stands in its place is what I

would call the Maga reflection of a

coalition of people that will be housed

under the label of republicanism which

is to say that these folks aren't

necessarily Republicans these folks are

believers of the Maga philosophy they're

just using the Republican vessel in

order to run their candidates and get

elected and in that overturning of the

status quo what you had was this one

family who was at the center for the

last few Decades of political

Machinery that essentially decided

candidates that it decided agenda that

it decided policy and that was the coch

family and they spent an enormous amount

of money to get

that which they stood up frankly

literally the day after citizens united

happened in the Supreme Court and I

think that in that

lens those billions of dollars of

investment have essentially gone to zero

because I don't think it means much of

anything anymore and if you look at the

new class of donors who will

decide quote unquote Republican policy

it's going to be the the muriam Adon of

the world the Elon musks of the world

and that's very different than how I

think the cokes used to decide things do

you think there's too much money in

politics now Gavin do I think there's

too much money in politics now

um it's it's a good

question you know I might feel very very

differently if I didn't agree so

profoundly with with the largest owner

in this political cycle

yeah I I would say the reality is is

like the the the money as long as the

money raised on each side is roughly

equivalent I don't think it really

matters that would that would be my take

you just want some equivalence that's

all all right let's do our 2025

predictions for biggest business winner

freeberg why don't you start us off

biggest business winner for 2025 what's

your prediction so I feel like we're at

a really interesting inflection

point that is going to make 2025 the

year of autonomous Hardware or robotics

if 2024 was the year of kind of compute

build out and the roll out of AI systems

in software I think 2025 will be the

year of the

robot you know there's a company I we

just placed an order today actually out

of China called

unry Gavin have you looked at this

company yeah it's pretty wild actually

it's an incredible business incredible

product so their go2 robot is $1600 has

an API here it is you can run a payload

on it it's got lar on it it's got kind

of intelligence guidance systems on it

this is the robot system that was used

on some of those videos we looked at

earlier this year where there were

machine guns mounted to the back and it

was basically a new kind of field

Soldier it's an autonomous field Soldier

but really you can use it in scientific

applications we're looking at using them

in our uh on our on our test Farms where

it can wander the farm and take images

and Report data back to us and it's such

a low cost that like less than $3,000

you can do some incredible things with

it so this business just raised a couple

hundred million dollar last month

from Mostly Chinese investors it's a

Chinese company and I think that there's

going to be you know other similar type

businesses you know it kind of takes a

long time for things to work and then

all of a sudden they happen faster than

you could have ever imagined I think

this is going to be the year where we're

all going to look at humanoid robots and

autonomous systems and be like oh my God

I can't believe this is here um so this

could be the

year such a great strong choice for the

biggest winner and I think the quote

you're looking for is how did you go

bankrupt slowly and then all at once

that's how these technology changes and

man I would love to have one of these

for the ranch to just run around and do

the perimeter security sorry Nick pull

up the you guys got to watch this if you

haven't seen it Nick find the video of

the go2 with the wheels on it U managing

terrain and everyone thought this was a

BS video that it was like CGI wasn't

real it was AI generated but like this

thing is just incredible here it is this

is a real video of this thing yeah and

it could learn from an llm too right

like a large language model could teach

it how to do so yeah Gavin is this real

like what's your abely real yeah yeah I

want to get the G1 which is their

humanoid robot yeah so pull up the

humanoid it's really cool yeah a little

more expensive yeah yeah I mean $166,000

is the cost of a used Prius let's be

honest that's in spitting distance of

being affordable mid look at this thing

16 Grand and this thing you can you know

you can basically command it to do

things for you in your house or in your

factory or place oh come on I knew you

would do it oh come on I was going to

say maybe we could get a poker dealer

maybe B you know I wonder if this thing

could deal do you guys remember that

robot that was on stage for our all-in

Holiday Spectacular One so my my brother

made an observation he said as soon as

that robot came out it's like everyone

just wanted to abuse it he's like humans

have this very interesting nature where

like the robot emerges and all that

humans want to do is like hurt the robot

it's like

ration of behavior yeah like just it's

like oh here's something I dominate

here's something I can tell we're so

threatened by it we want to make sure

that we're the top of the species here

and it doesn't feel like it's going to

be for much longer I mean these things

will kick our ass pretty soon anyway

these things are amazing I think this is

going to be the year of the robots

that's my pred year of the robots is

your prediction I love it uh Gavin what

do you got profoundly agree I think

you're the robots um inclusive of FSD

you know I think FSD works today and

it's

gonna it's it's going to cross into

mainstream adoption where I already

notice particularly if I'm taking an

Uber late at night I really really

prefer to have a Tesla just sometimes

you get an Uber driver who's who's

tired and I just feel a lot safer if

they have the FSD running and then

obviously using it for yourself is

amazing but I think it's going to

continue compounding at an accelerating

rate

I think the in a lot of ways what I'd

say broadly is I think for a while it's

going to be big businesses are winners

big businesses that use Ai

thoughtfully and the reason is is that

with what is happening what what 03

showed us open ai's new model the

combination of reasoning and test time

compute like I think you're if you're a

big business and you can pay a million

dollars to let let an AI think for 6

weeks about the most important question

for your

business that's going to be a profound

Advantage relative to small businesses

that can't afford that and by the way we

are the other like inference compute is

going to be the the kind of derivative

when of that we're going to run out of

gpus accelerators

compute in

20125 the same way we did in

23 okay so you're also long Nvidia and

chip makers grock Etc because we're

finding new uses for all that compute

absolutely okay very good chth do you

have a prediction for your biggest

business winner of 2025 sir I think the

biggest business winner of 2025 are

going to be dollar denominated stable

coins oh I'll make two points in 2024

two critical things

happened the first is that

stable

coins

essentially became uncoupled from crypto

volatility and it started to be used for

wholesale useful functions in running

businesses and there's an image here

that starts to show that so independent

of crypto volatility what you saw were

stable coin usage just rising up and to

the

right that's an incredibly important

decoupling that happened in 24 the

second and this data is still just

trickling in but it's an incredible

stat stablecoin

usage at the end of the second quarter

of 2024 was about 1.1 billion

transactions that summed to

8.5 trillion do of transaction volume if

you compare that to Visa over the same

period it was more than double visas

transaction

volume so I think what we have now is

something that has fundamentally

crossed a point of no return similar to

how last year I thought that the big

Trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024 I

would say that the big Trend in 25 is

stable coin usage I think we're going to

finally attack the duopoly of visa and

MasterCard I think you're going to see

an inal number of use

cases that sit and use stable coin rails

I think when Donald Trump becomes

president I think you're going to see

him go after incredibly High credit card

transactions and

costs you're already seeing cacks in

consumer credit anyways because of these

high aprs all of this stuff is going to

come to a head in 2025 I think and I

think stable coins could quadruple or

quintuple by the end of 25 I think it's

just going to be an enormous Market

great choice should they be regulated

chamath we saw at some of these

Congressional hearings tether was kind

of dragged for being the

primary transfer and and monetary tool

for terrorism for getting around

sanctions and for human trafficking

should it be regulated and how I I don't

think I'm qualified to say how it should

but I think the point is that there are

these IM logs that

sit in between and on either side of all

of these transactions and so I think the

knowledge is there and there are a whole

bunch of third party services that add

that intelligence

layer I think the the thing to really

question is if you just took 300 basis

points of

drag yes out of the global economy

massive gain how valuable would that be

and I think it would be valuable just in

the United States alone to the tune of a

trillion dollars so the idea that you

wouldn't do it at this point

is somewhat quizzical to me so I just

think that the economic justification

for this now is just so profound Gavin

let me ask you a hard question there as

well should the United States government

give up the let's face it you know they

they have a bit of a strangle hold

they've got a bit of a monopoly on US

Dollars these things are a competitor

and we were sitting here on this program

over the last couple years talking about

the bricks and them starting their own

currency aren't these in some way

similar to that and they would take

people off the USD standard how do you

look at that because that is the

criticism that some people in power have

put forward I do I do think that they

might be very good for the

world but I do think they would be very

bad for America if they replaced if some

constellation of stable coins became the

new Reserve currency it is such a an

advantage to be able to borrow in your

own

currency and to give that up lightly

that just that means you

control you have you you control the

real size of your debt at all times oh

wow we have a big big debt I mean this

is a little bit like what we just did

let's just have let's just let inflation

run hot and oh wow that debts a lot

smaller than it

was effectively so I think it would be a

big mistake freeberg you have any

thoughts on it we we've been talking

about currency here and a whole bunch

over the last couple years any thoughts

on stable coins and and just the uh

Monopoly we have on it I I don't know

enough about stable coins well that'll

be one of our big topics for the year

and we should uh definitely invite jir

from USD on or usdc usdc Geremy

air I mentioned by the way that I had

this small little product that

I exposed to the world which is just our

research and we sit it on top of

substack again the tools aren't very

good and we use stripe and Jeremy

reached out to me and he's like I'll

just rebuild all of your payment rails

on using US dollar stable coins and it's

a no-brainer because I'm spending

hundreds of thousands of dollars in

transaction costs that now I can just

save and use to hire somebody else or

just pay the team more and so I you're

paying 10% to suback in the 3% yeah if

it's obvious for me it's obvious for

everybody else all right my biggest

business winner prediction for 2025 is

Tesla and Google I think this is going

to be the year of AI and Robotics

obviously but I am just absolutely

amazed at the comeback that Google has

made with AI and I'm absolutely in awe

of what Elon did with Colossus if those

of you don't know Jensen Wong Michael D

they all obviously participated in

building out xai and they were shocked

they couldn't believe that they stood up

a 100,000 gpus in under 45 days was it

Gavin something in that neighborhood it

was a tremendous effort and uh you

that's not Tesla right is that Tesla

well Elon Tesla xai and Google that

cohort who are investing heavily in AI

those two specifically those two three

names I think are going to be the

biggest winners next year they're going

to come out with some things that people

didn't anticipate I don't I don't think

people are anticipating what Google

Google is going to come out with because

Gemini deep research I keep telling

people this and I'm using the app is so

impressive drop what you're doing right

now pause the podcast download Gemini

and just start playing with deep resarch

on your desktop pay the 20 bucks for it

it is mindblowing it blows anything else

in the market out of the water period

full stop it is a step function

higher all right I'll just leave it at

that Jason shouldn't you uh just go with

the vibe of the podcast shouldn't you

explain what it is what sorry okay so

what it does is good call good call if

you wanted to create a model let's say

and I did this where I said hey make me

a model based upon what it would take to

replace all the cars and trips in the

United States with full self-driving

cars what would that cost to do and if

you ask that to chat GPT or grock or you

know Claude it's going to give you a

decent answer what deep research does is

it goes and it figures out what the

subcomponents of each of those questions

would be and then it fires off multiple

threads and then it searches the web in

real time which Google is extremely good

at and then it summarizes it gives

citations and it produces a report that

looks like something that Gartner group

McKenzie Boston Consulting Group would

have spent I don't know 30 days on Gavin

and a million dollars a half million

dollars it's Bonkers how good

this is but the amount of compute it

takes is extraordinary that's why chat

GPT released something similar that's

200 bucks a month the 01 Pro I think

they call it

and then this one is like 20 bucks from

Gemini anyway given what Google has

access to YouTube your G drive your

Google Docs Etc your Gmail it's going to

do things that you wouldn't anticipate

like if you were asking this question it

might look in your Gmail for

possibilities to answer those questions

or YouTube videos of channels you

subscribe to so this is going to I think

knock people's socks off and solve

problems that people didn't know they

had is that a pretty good explanation

Gavin yeah think it's great for last

year our predictions for business winner

chamat said bootstrapped or Endor

profitable startups I think that's a

really great pick and that came to pass

we're seeing some of those go public and

raise money at higher valuations or not

go out of business freeberg you said

Commodities businesses I'm not sure how

that did do you know did you Che pretty

flat yeah we didn't have a lot of the

inflationary pressures that I think were

underlying that pie so got it it ended

up being I'd say a loser relative to

other indices you could bought this year

I said training data owners like Reddit

New York Times Google Etc Reddit stock

up 24% in 2024 and they launched their

own Reddit answer call yeah I think I

got that one uh New York Times stock is

up as well and they uh fired off that

lawsuit with open AI all right now we're

going to move on to the 2025 biggest

business loser predictions in 2024

shamat said pro sports teams because

they hit Peak valuations that's looking

like a pretty good prediction free perg

you said vertical SAS companies because

of AI disrupt

that's another one that seems like a

great prediction I said smartphone

manufacturers Apple stock was up 30% in

2024 but I think we've all seen that

these uh smartphones aren't advancing

and people are taking their times the

sales of those are down services are up

I would take the other side on pro

sports teams it feels like that market

is about to be

institutionalized and funds are going to

start buying pro sports teams okay that

ultimately and ultimately Capital

markets have way more resources than

kind of the wealthy individual ual

who've done it for to date so I just

think it's the amount of money that can

go after pro sports teams is about uh

you know 10x 100x no I think I think

you're totally right the the reason I

said that last year was it was pretty

clear to me at the time and the NBA was

the canary and the coal mine that there

was a viewership problem in professional

sports and specifically in the NBA the

game has devolved into essentially

rebounds and dunks or three point ERS

and the issue with that is that it

becomes just meaningfully less

interesting to watch at the same time

because of the the fact that the TV

deals are really what determines the

discounted value of these sports

franchises the TV deal was so enormous

that it creates

no reliable rivalries anymore because

people will hop scotch teams almost

every year because the compensation that

they can get is just so obscene quite

honestly

and I think what happens is sports will

have a decent run until the next TV

deals get done and I think if you for

example take Pharma ads outside of TV so

like that pool shrinks if you have less

viewership and so you can sell the

remaining ads less effectively because

there's just fewer of them and then

there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet

again then the dollar pool that the

television networks and the Stream are

going to be willing to pay for sports

will go down and the group that will be

the most price sensitive are exactly who

you said Gavin meaning the non trophy

buyer so like you know when I bought

into the Warriors I bought it purely as

a trophy asset and I was pricing

sensitive but I agree with you that now

that you have the PE firms on the cap

tables of these sports franchises those

folks are all DCFS those folks are all

Excel models I don't think that they're

buying things for emotion I don't think

they've grown up thinking I want to own

this thing not using institutional LP

dollars so I just think that's why

that's why I said that in 24 so I just

on behal of Phil Huth and I we

appreciate you made that vanity

investment for the number of times we

got to sit in your court side seats yeah

because I never we made with NBA players

I never went to the games I should have

gone to more games I went to your games

and almost got thrown out of your seats

I got a red card one time it's true is

it true you did oh you don't I got a I

got a call I got a call I think it was

from the Warriors or it's from from the

NBA something to the effect of chouth

this guy that was sitting in your seats

was almost kicked out and I said excuse

me because I knew that it was Game In

fairness and and he was like jawboning

our own players I was getting into it

with bogot and with David Lee because I

told it was unbelievable I told Steve

cerr listen you're up 30 on my Knicks

sit these guys down this is Bush League

what if Steph Curry gets hurt out there

like and uh you know Boga told me to

shut up Andre boa told him to basically

go pound in a basically did it was the

funniest thing ever Gavin this is what

happens when you get's one of our

friends he's one of our good friends so

that's why it's so funny but they can't

they come over freeberg and they tap you

on the shoulder I'm with my wife she's

mortified and the guy hands you a card

and the card says you've been warned one

time and one time only about abusive you

know uh Behavior if we have to warn you

one more time you will be escorted out

rid so I look at the guy and I say but

he goes read the card I read the card I

say he goes giv me a thumbs up that was

it I never that was it you're not

supposed to then three years later I'm

sitting in the same seats I'm

interacting with Draymond during the

finals games and everybody's hokey doie

with it when you say interacting what do

you mean when you say interacting wa

hold on G Gavin wanted to make a point

about what I no I just want to just just

come back to chath because for sure

these private Equity guys there DCFS the

NBA has been terribly managed I think

even LeBron said they have a big problem

you know and I'd separate the NBA is the

worst managed NFL is probably the best

managed but the one kind of CounterPoint

I would say on the TV rights is Google

bought Sunday Ticket and are extremely

happy with

it Amazon and Netflix also bought you

know both bought NFL games and are

really happy with them and so I just

think those three companies it doesn't

really matter to them if Pharma ads go

away in 18 months you're going to be

able to dynamically create an ad

for each individual person and show it

to them and if you're a high value user

with a you know that Google knows that

you're about to book a vacation you know

they'll dynamically generate you know

whatever you know Hotel destinations you

want and show click here so I just think

Sports as long as they command the

eyeballs that they do and I for sure if

the NBA doesn't fix it the value of

those franchises will start to decline

but um just the fact that all of the

biggest tech companies are so happy with

the sports kind of rights that they

bought they're going to buy them all

every sport understand Gavin maybe maybe

you're closer to this but why wouldn't

Apple Amazon or Google just back up the

truck to the NBA and say well take the

whole thing and then anybody who's got

an iPhone gets the NBA for free and then

everybody else has to pay and they

figure it out in the back and they lose

a you know 5 billion they make two

billion who cares it's a rounding error

for Apple I agree

and they you know I mean they all all

except for Apple really and apple they

have I think an MLs deal but they all

kind of stuck their toe in the water and

I think they feel like wow the water's

warm let's dive in um okay yeah and the

New Deal is an 11year deal for the NBA

so these things don't come up that often

but we'll see over time maybe somebody

will buy one of these media companies

and inherit them okay biggest business

loser for 2025 what's your prediction

Gavin Baker government service providers

you do not you do not want to have the

United States government at any level is

over 35% of your

Revenue good choice yes obviously in the

age of Doge they might not be spending

wildly and they might actually look at

the bill they might check the bill crazy

thought crazy thought yeah crazy thought

to actually check the bill you never

know chth who do you predict will be the

biggest business loser of

2025 well this is a a little bit

precarious

but I don't know what the percentage

draw down from here will be but I think

when we look

back the

absolute dollar draw down of the mag s

will be in the trillions of dollars okay

and the reason is not necessarily

because of the underlying fundamentals

of these

companies but I am a little bit worried

and I tweeted this a few days ago about

just the general

concentration of the top seven 8 nine 10

companies in the

indices I think it's approaching

40% and I think that when you look at

these historic

concentrations they've generally

foreshadowed a big draw down okay and

unfortunately I don't see how you

can sort of you know inoculate yourself

from that risk so independent of the

quality of these companies because I

think these companies are exceptional

businesses I do think you've just had

too much concentration and I think it it

is a setup to retrade and give back and

in that it could even be 10% but 10% in

the mag 8 will be a couple trillion

bucks and so on absolute would be a lot

yeah an absolute dollar a lot okay

freeberg who do you predict you predict

Max 7 government service providers for

You Gavin Free who do you predict will

be the biggest business loser of 202 I'm

sort of on the same vein as Gavin I went

with the kind of old defense and

Aerospace providers Boeing loed Martin

Ron defense 1.0 driven by kind of China

dominance driven by us defense budgets

that I think are going to need to shift

towards a more kind of tech oriented and

Roid driven rationalization and pricing

and spend so the Palante and Andals

obviously the world will benefit and I

also just think like there's a lot of

failure at scale with these businesses

they've gotten too clunky and too

bureaucratic as we've seen with boing

from their space program failure in 2024

uh to the challenges with their their

airplane business but I think that this

government contracting business across

the board is going to be deeply

challenged this year with all the new

blood so the Cost Plus are going to

suffer is what you're saying and the

andrs will Thrive would you guys add

just a question would you guys add the

traditional Consulting companies then to

the mix as well like if you that's a

good point too that's a great one yeah

we think what we talked

like the Y Pros the tatas the hcls the

accent cogn the Emy all these folks in

are in real trouble if that if that also

happens that's right yeah you the

efficiency that they'll gain will also

be felt by their customers and their

customers might not hire them when you

got a bunch of software entrepreneurs

that are now advising and informing the

federal government on how to run their

their operations I'm pretty sure that

some of these service providers are

going to get washed out so it's a good

idea the thing to keep in mind is like

plus is a fancier way of saying time and

materials and time and materials is a

fancy way of saying human labor

Arbitrage and I think that all of that

stuff will get extremely scrutinized in

2025 because if you are buying you know

$800 waste baskets and you know $9,000

uh umbrella hangers because of time and

materials and all of this other crazy

stuff that's in the system and all of

that gets washed out then a lot of these

folks in their business models will will

get put under severe stress the

alignments you know you show me an

incentive I'll show you the outcome the

alignment of Cost Plus is to just keep

being inefficient and and waste and and

these defense contractors are taking 60

70 80% off the price of each piece of

Munitions or

vehicle yeah Cost Plus is terrible no

just cost is terrible that's all all

right for my biggest business loser

prediction I had to go through a lot of

the uh people I've uh criticized on in

started fights with over the past year

commercial real estate came to mind

because these leases are going to keep

coming up and I think like they kick the

can down the road a little bit so I

started there then I looked at micro

strategies and that made no sense to me

that they were trading at two three four

times the book value of their Bitcoin

and I think that's not sustainable I

looked at truth social which is like

doing four or5 million in revenue and is

valued at 7 billion that makes Absol no

logical sense but I think the one that

is the most overpriced of of all of this

and I think is going to

see their Peak valuation is open AI I

think the headwinds for open AI are

being

absolutely

underappreciated like I said before in

my previous one uh my previous

prediction Google is kicking ass xai is

just getting started and building out so

much big Iron Microsoft was basically on

another

podcast almost like laughing at open a

for selling them the source code and

that they didn't even need open AI

anymore because they had it all they

don't need them and they own all the Big

Iron I think open ai's valuation made no

sense I don't think they're going to be

able to keep charging the prices are

charging and I think AWS Apple Google

xai this cohort are going

to really take that $57 billion

valuation and make it the peak valuation

of the company and I do I do think that

there's a nonzero chance they could lose

their process and these court cases of

transferring $157 billion dollar in

value from a nonprofit into a for-profit

I think that whole thing could blow up

is that your super prediction is open AI

will not be able to convert from

nonprofit to for-profit in 2025 I think

that that's a small piece of it but

that's a really interesting super

prediction insert poly Market graphic

here

super prediction will open AI convert is

that's a good in 2025 yeah by the way

you know they're projecting I think in

the the the leaked financials 12 billion

Revenue next year jkl so unlike a lot of

the other things you were talking about

this is a real business with real

Revenue real scale real growth real

technology it's it's a little bit

distinct from kind of being a meme stock

or being a exactly that's why I'm

picking it because I think it's easy to

pick a meme stock it's harder to pick a

real company but I do think think that

that Revenue which you know a lot of it

is consumer and a lot of it is

developers the developers I know all

want to do open source they don't want

to have to be beholden to open Ai and

Sam mman they would much rather and

they're already setting their queries

across multiple different sacks and

trying different ones I don't think

there's any loyalty to open AI or gemini

or any of these Services I think they'll

just go with eventually open source in

many cases so anyway that's my thought

on open AI 2025 biggest business deal

what do you got shth what's your biggest

business deal for 2025 prediction shth

what do you got you said starlink to go

public last

year that one yeah totally whiffed on

that one I think that this is the year

that we will see the collapse of the

traditional Auto

oems and I think that

the the deal that happened at the end of

2024 with Honda Nissan I think is a bit

of a signal to what the industry has to

do which is to go through a massive wave

of consolidation I think that

Tesla is just in an

incredible position with the quality of

their vehicles and the quality of their

software and the qu quality of their

autonomy with FSD so I suspect that

after a couple of

more

meaningful product releases it's just

going to trigger the realization by the

public capital markets that these Auto

oems are uninvestable and I think the

result of that will be a wave of Auto

Mega

mergers and for people who don't know

Honda and Nissan signed an agreement to

merge and Mitsubishi is involved because

they're part of I think Nissan's

Alliance this would obviously get rid of

all of the

redundancy I think this is touch like

the European oems are in real trouble

you know what does Volkswagen do

not clear what does stantis do it's not

clear these are all businesses that are

effectively melting icebergs and so you

know typically melting Iceberg

businesses when they get put under

pressure from Smart investors like Gavin

and and and is ilk they're forced to

merge short gav Gavin you got a spread

trade are you short these names um I I

would rather not talk about specific

positions I would just say I agree 100%

with chamath I think there you go

they're going to lose their Chinese

business because they don't make

competitive products anymore if there's

not massive protectionism and we're

seeing signs that they'll be caught

between Tesla and the Chinese

oems and I think the only way that this

doesn't H chat's the only risk to chat's

prediction is just government

intervention because they's such big

employers and you know often seen as

national champions but absent really

significant government support they all

in deep

trouble okay well done freeberg last

year you said there'd be some

Blockbuster deals for right holders

licensing data for AI training and

Reddit did in fact sign two of those so

uh a great prediction from you for last

year on biggest business deal what do

you got this year see if you can go two

for two was it just

Reddit I should probably look it up what

you I'll just follow on my year of the

robot theme I do think that there's

going to be massive funding deals

similar to what we saw this past year

for compute buildout I think we're going

to see massive funding deals for

Hardware based Manufacturing buildout in

the United States and I think that those

deals may take the form of kind of

traditional Equity from private markets

or they may have some component that

includes government support to to kind

of motivate and drive and accelerate

onshore manufacturing we're not going to

go in the US to making stuff that is

like last century I think we're going to

need to move manufacturing to the next

decade Next Century of of production and

I think that's going to mean making some

of these autonomous and robotic type

systems that are going to become really

critical for us particularly with China

doing this massive ramp up and buildout

for both drones and robots and

autonomous vehicles so I think we're

going to need to kind of onshore a lot

of this and so that'll be a big amount

of capital that's going to move and so

you'll see a bunch of these big

Blockbuster deals for Hardware buildout

in the US Gavin what do you think to be

the biggest business deal in 2025 I

think the biggest business deal is that

they're going to be deals I think

there's you're going to see a Title Wave

of m&a after four years of not being

able to get anything done I think

there's an enormous amount of pinup

demand so kind of Point number one point

number two something will happen with

Intel and that will be big and hopefully

it's good for

America and

then I do think you will see a lot of

these Frontier AI Labs that are

independent be quiet

you know I thought your points were well

taken Jason about you know everything

that uh you know Google is bringing to

Bear an ex xai owns their own compute

and you guys can choose whichever one of

these three you like but the ultimate AI

winner will be the one with the lowest

cost of infrastructure cost the lowest

cost of compute and definitionally you

can't be the lowcost provider if you're

ring your compute from someone else

because of markups yeah because there's

a markup if you're buy your compute from

Azure or

AWS or Google you were at a disadvantage

relative to their internal Services over

time so the full stack wins great

prediction for

me last year my prediction was that bite

dance would go public or Tik Tok would

get divested or some version of this we

are but 18 days away from figuring out

if the Supreme Court will do just that

my prediction for this year I was

looking at all the media companies

gentlemen there were so many

possibilities there Warner Brothers we

talked about Apple and Disney you know

couple years ago but I think the age of

autonomy is here and I think there is

going to be some Partnerships that will

happen between Amazon door- Uber Tesla

weo and that cohort and I would not be

surprised to see Tesla could buy Uber

right now for but 10% of its market cap

and weo could spin out and partner with

Uber Amazon could buy door Dash fairly

easily and with the wrath of KH being

over the wrath of lenina con being over

Gavin it is possible that Mega deals

like these could go through and if a

couple of Mega deals go through like

this whoever uh you know teams up here

could win autonomy delivery food

delivery and e-commerce this is a

ginormous space and I think listen I

don't I haven't spoken to uh obviously

my friend about it but Tesla buying door

Dash and Uber or Amazon buying door Dash

and Uber could be the greatest service

ever created if you wanted to build a

super app the only thing I would add and

I think dovet tales with what you said

and and um friberg's kind of year of the

robot is autonomous drones there's a

company called zipline which my firm is

an investor in fantastic yeah but

autonomous drones they really are the

best way to deliver almost anything to

Suburban America and then I think

over time it will be sorted out so that

they could deliver in cities as

well so I just think that that might be

a little bit of a wild card for some of

these delivery services well and Amazon

in I believe it's Texas is actually

doing these now they've got 60,000 SKS

is my understanding already being

delivered and they just drop it in your

backyard and it's there in 45 minutes I

do this like two weeks ago I um you know

Matan in China's got this and they they

F have food delivery happening with

these Dr

by the way um just kind of dovetailing

off of this I think the other big deal

potential in 2025 just to be very

specific is a deal with weo you know weo

launched n SF in August 2023 in kind of

an open market way Uber and Lyft were 66

and 34% market share at the time and in

15 months in November of 2024 weo is now

a 22% market share of rides in SF which

is the same as Lyft and Uber is now down

to 55 so weo Aid in both Uber and lifts

market share by on the order of 12

points um in just 15 months and now

they're launching in LA in Austin all

over the country they're already in

Phoenix so I think you could see a

massive and by the way you know they

also just moved the the hardware

platform over to a new d new device that

supposedly going to bring the capex

significantly down for new launches so

you'll see much improved roic metrics

which means that there's a much kind of

more efficient way to use Capital to

scale so the system works it is scaling

they are opening up a new markets you

could see something happen with weo this

year that could either be something like

a massive financing an IPO or a merger

or acquisition with one of the big right

sharing companies I don't know if that

makes as much strategic sense as I've

thought about it a little bit but I do

think you could see a big deal with wayo

this company is if you guys have not

been in AO uh I think we all talked

about this but it's an incredible

experience and everyone I know of every

age group that has been for a ride in wh

comes out of it saying that is the

future this is going to absolutely

dominate how I'm going to get around I'm

most people say it's slow right now and

monotonous and they don't like it but

you know because it does take weird

routes but that'll be fixed over time

obviously tot and uh just in case

anybody thinks I'm talking my book here

I have exposure to all these almost all

these companies in a in a significant

way because I believe in the entire

space one and a half% of rides in the US

and globally it's less than 1% are done

by ride sharing the Tam is going to go

to 20% in a very short period of time

and it's going to be across the board

there's going to be a lot of winners

here and to my favorite Uber obviously

they have deals with eight people and

it's a global market byd produces cars

for half the price of any other car

manufacturer and they have full self

driving and it's pretty darn good from

what I understand so this is going to be

a global competition and that means if

you want to win that Global competition

something like uber and doores weo

Amazon byd you're going to see some

interesting Partnerships happen very

quickly I believe because there's so

much at stake all right and final

thoughts on biggest business deals I

think I maybe have a good one here

consolidation in the transportation

space okay moving on to 2025 most

contrarian

belief last year Enterprise value of

open AI goes down from chth it roughly

doubled but I just picked it as my

prediction so I think we're s we're

sympatico on uh what we think long term

freeberg you said increased probability

of a nuclear weapon being used for the

first time since World War II thank the

Lord that that didn't happen again this

is contrarian beliefs people are going

out there I I didn't predict it was

gonna happen I just said the probability

went up it was it's a tough it's a tough

thing to call well this is most

contrarian belief I think it's fine Dr

Doom strikes again it's all good I

picked Apple would become the player in

Ai and they did launch Apple

intelligence but it sucks I mean it

sucks it's terrible I just bought the

Google pixel fold

n and the Gemini works perfectly it does

everything that Ser is supposed to do if

you say please play this song If you say

please download this app if you say add

this to my calendar it does it and it

does it in one or tenth the amount of

time that Apple takes and apple gets it

wrong every time it's a piece of garbage

it's a disgrace disad apple apple

intelligence is even worse than co-pilot

which is saying something Jason would

you like to

announce you B the domain dad.com I own

it I'm not selling it right now it it

redirects to J Paul Gavin Gavin do you

have any idea what word he's even saying

when he says that disad disad it's disg

graad is what people used to say in

Brooklyn for somebody who is disgraceful

it is a Italian American slang how do

you spell

it you don't even know you own the

domain you don't even know d i s g r a z

i a d disg

graad yes and if you type in disg graad

it goes to Jake Paul I bought it when I

was watching the Tyson fight it was so

disgraceful I was saying to my brother

Josh the black bomber this is and he

just said disg graad and I just said I

wonder if that's available as a domain

I'm redirecting disg graad right now Tim

Cook to Apple intelligence the website

do you guys think Tyson through that

that it was part of the deal

th% I would love I think somebody said

Saudi Arabia was offering to host a

remake or or whatever a redo a rematch a

rematch of the fight where the winner

would make 50 million and then we'll see

what's what and the loser gets zero yes

and the loser gets zero this is a good

use of the Kingdom's money the people

want to know we will all fly out there

and do an Allin episode from you guys

see this did you see this thing where is

it is it Logan Paul is fighting Conor

McGregor in India and Conor McGregor is

gonna get $250 million what yeah it's

like a

whole stunt I I think it's boxing and

it's meant to sort of like bring a bunch

of tourists into India to show them the

country but it's a quarter of a billion

dollars to Conor MC how do we get in on

this grift freeberg versus Baker poly

hoaa versus kakanis oh my gosh we need

to get our own celebrity box and who

would we do come on keep going I got to

drive home let's go come on too much fun

this episode chth what's your most

contrarian belief prediction for 2025

we're going out on a limb here this is

going out in a limb folks don't judge us

the the spicier to take the better here

this is where you can go

freestyle I think that you're going to

see a banking crisis in one of the major

Mainline Banks a banking crisis wow

there is a it's a small chance it

happens but that's a contrar belief okay

why Jam why Black Swan well I think if I

had to kind of build the the case for

this it would be along the following

lines if you added up the total

indebtedness of pax America which is US

Government

debt plus corporates plus Mortgage

Debt and you actually sensitize it to

rates that are around call it

5% what you quickly realize is on a

dollar

basis that because the amount of debt

that we have has just massively

exploded that 5% rates today on 70 odd

trillion dollars is actually equivalent

to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago because

we only had a fraction of that debt on a

dollar basis and so the pain that you

feel at 5 or 6% can very quickly Ripple

through the economy the way that it did

when rates 25 or 30 years ago were

10% and so I think that when people look

at rates they forget the actual total

dollar impact because when somebody or

collectively when we have to come up

with three or four trillion dollars how

do you do that and so I think that there

is a

non-trivial risk I think it's small this

is why it's contrarian but I think it's

a it's a risk where if you have a

marketto market

problem if you have a credit default

problem amongst the corporates or

amongst enough individual

consumers what I think that happens more

than anything else is that it triggers a

reserve issue and I think that the

reserve issue in one of these Mainline

Banks

I have two that I think are more obvious

than others but I don't want to name

them okay fair enough I love this

contrarian take this is great I think

that there's a there's a small but

reasonable chance that that happens I

love it it's a great great contrarian

take small chance but big impact Gavin

what do you got well first Gemini deep

research to um just ask it to look at

the total you know Pax Americana debt

outstanding apply the current Market

interest rate to it and then look at

that you know interest expense relative

to GDP and generate that chart over time

that would be a cool chart that would be

interesting I don't I I don't I don't

disagree with

chamath you know

any anything is possible and um you know

there there could for sure be be a

problem at a big

bank I don't know that I would say it's

likely but you anything is possible my

most cont belief so I think that America

over the next at some point over the

next four years will print at least one

year of greater than 5% GDP growth real

GDP growth I think productivity is going

to go vertical because of AI and

deregulation and I think there could be

a world where this is the late 90s and

it doesn't sound like a big difference

you know five or 6% versus 2 or 3% but

it is a massive difference

you know at five or 6% you know the

economy is

doubling you'll call it every 12 years

roughly versus 24 years at 3% I mean

it's just it's a massive difference in

terms of kind of the wealth of the

country and individual Americans as far

as a specific prediction for 25 uh

because I don't know when when that will

happen I think you will see the frontier

Labs stop releasing their Leading Edge

models to prevent knowledge distillation

and their IP effectively being stolen

you know seek from China it was really

impressive but it thinks it's gp4 you

know yeah so I just think you will

you'll see the labs keep their best

models in house distill them and put

small small models

out over time fber do you have a

contrarian belief and I did put into

Gemini Advanced 1.5 Pro with deep

research the question which banks have

the great biggest chance of being

insolvent or having a financial collapse

or crisis so it's doing its research

right now it'll be done in about 10

minutes I think

which gives you an idea of how much

research it does it's

nuts freeberg what do you got I think

that the the party line is that

socialism was defeated in this election

cycle and that there was a resounding

kind of vote from the American populace

against socialism and I actually think

my my contrarian belief is that we'll

see a rise a dramatic rise in socialist

movements in 2025 in the United States

okay and I think that we going to see as

Gavin pointed out an acceleration of

progress we're going to see an

unleashing of economic growth because of

deregulation and AI but I do think that

some markets we've also talked about the

the the the downfall of us autom

manufacturing and some other Industries

there's going to be a real significant

shift in 2025 some Industries and some

companies are going to be huge winners

and some companies are going to be huge

losers there's going to be some parts of

the economy that are going to be big

Winners and some parts of the economy

that are going to be big losers when you

have this sort of a change this fast

there are often large contingents of

people that are left behind and when

that happens I do think that the

Socialist policies and the Socialist

movements gain steam when um Peron came

to power in

Argentina in the mid1 1940s that country

was experiencing 8% GDP growth to

Gavin's point about accelerating growth

growth does not mean that it benefits

everyone equally and I think that some

folks will see people go from being

billionaires to 100 billionaires to the

world's first trillionaire and it will

also start to fuel this rise so I think

that we will see an increase in the

breadth and depth of socialist movements

in the United States by the way

particularly with Doge cutting

Government funding to programs that

benefit individuals employment being cut

in in the federal government and through

Federal contractors there's just a lot

of Rapid change that's about to kind of

really upset a lot of people I totally

agree I think AI you know people are

fond of saying that what in a world of

AGI or ASI money will be

meaningless but for a short period of

time money will matter more than it's

ever mattered before because the amount

of money you can spend on AI on test

time compute is going to give you a

massive Advantage whether you're a

company or an individual so I just think

AI is going to really amplify inequality

for some period of time yeah I hope I'm

wrong like I hope you know AI leads to

you know all sorts of you know

opportunities being created for low

there's a lot of there's just going to

be a lot of employment and income

disruption in 2025 and it's going to

fuel socialist movements and I think

that this is going to be a more

difficult Year everyone thinks it's kind

of rosy red because we're all working in

the tech industry in Silicon Valley but

the reality on the ground for most

Americans could be a lot harsher than

any of us anticipate and that could make

for a very difficult political

environment and social environment this

is a great contrarian prediction free I

would build on it that I don't think

this is just going to hit blue collar I

seeing in the Venture industry and in

entrepreneurs all over the place people

who are super qualified who had six

figure salaries even to Mid six figure

salaries not be able to find work we not

find work at previous compensation

levels why because people are doing more

with less it's much better to invest and

do deep research and Ai and automate

stuff or deprecate stuff or delegate

stuff to to other regions than to hire

Americans in some cases and that

philosophy that's happening isn't just

going to hit truck drivers it's going to

hit developers potentially designers

writers what the contrar part of what

you guys are saying what's the

contrarian part socialism socialism ISM

On The Rise I it's pretty interesting

because I think you don't think it's

contrarian you think it's obvious I

think the party line has been that

socialism was getting knocked back this

year with this

it was a mandate against socialism and

some of the Socialist policies that were

being put forth and I think that the

contrarian view is that we're actually

got this really wrong and socialism is

going to be on a big rise but just to

build on what you said earlier like w

wokeism and progressivism will decouple

from socialism I think wokeism and

progressivism you know will be on a

declining Trend but socialism in terms

of the

government like policy more role yeah

yeah why have Universal why don't we

have Universal healthare why don't we

have prek or you know in every state and

and you know these kind of things I

think Americans are right to ask those

questions now other behaviors are

obviously appor but you do have the

right to ask why we can't figure this

out and why our government has failed Us

in something as basic as you know

providing after school programs or

universal healthcare or Universal Child

Care these things are easy to do and

when you see everybody getting rich and

and the polarization of wealth I can

understand people saying why don't we

have these basic things when other

countries have them it's a reasonable

you're making the assumptive statement

that these things are easy to do which

was what was said about education it's

like let's give everyone access to

college education with the uh the

federal student loan programs and what

happened was when we introduced those

programs those schools started to charge

more and the tuition went up every year

and eventually the cost of Education

inflated away from the benefit you were

getting from it and this has happened

universally in healthcare it has

happened happed in housing it has

happened in education it has happened in

every Market where the unit states where

the government has stepped in to provide

Capital to support that market is that

the market basically no longer operates

in a free way I appreciate the challenge

to it and I'll explain to you why I

believe it's easy if you just put this

down to the States and you make it more

competitive I think you solve the

problem if you introduce School vouchers

and you create competition if you take

universal healthcare and maybe you run

some experiments where different states

get that money from the federal

government and let them run 50 different

experiments I think we could actually

solve some of these problems but you're

correct anything that the federal

government does it eventually becomes

corrupt and inefficient my most

contrarian belief was open AI loses its

lead loses its nonprofit to for-profit

transition and becomes the number four

player in AI the total collapse of open

AI is my most contrarian prediction for

20 that's a good one the total collapse

of dble double doubling and tripling

down hey man I'm trying to make this

spicy it's a spicy category let's do I

got got

it could still run for president Jal

maybe he's great I don't know everybody

who all his friends left the company

maybe he's great maybe he's a standup

guy I mean everybody quit but maybe he's

gav are you are you familiar with J K's

prediction that Jeff Bezos is gonna run

for president it was that was my I was

predicting I wanted him to I wanted him

to and he bought Washington Post and he

quit the Amazon job and he bought a

house in Washington d

and he went down to marago don't be

surprised if Bezos after he gets through

his uh midlife crisis and going to

Coachella and partying and having a

great time which he deserves if he comes

back and says you know what I want to

serve my country I still stand by

Washington Post or do you think he's

gonna hold on to it well let's stick

with that one because that's one

prediction Jeff Bezos will sell the

Washington Post in 2025 that's a good

poly Market yeah sell it to Caren swier

sell it to Karen swier

run it right into the ground they'll

Double

Down uh okay best performing asset

everybody loves this one best performing

asset hey we can you can put a price on

this best performing asset last year

chamat did a spread trade he was long

public tech stocks short private late

stage Tech stock index NASDAQ top 100

Tech stock ETF was up 10% 2024 freeberg

you went with your uranium ETF not

Uranus uranium ETF and you're a UR are a

was down 1% in 2024 I know sideway you

know what I I looked at the components

of that ETF last week when we were

preparing for this it has absolute junk

in it like it it was not the right the

right right way to kind of trade uranium

but anyway that was my My outcome for

the year I went with the on demand

economy with Uber Airbnb and door Dash

Uber was up 30% but now it's only up 3%

with the robo taxi hadwin Airbnb is

basically flat

and doorish up big 74% shout out to

Stanley Tang great job to the team over

there so jam get your flowers there

let's do our best performing asset let's

let our guests go first Gavin what would

be the best performing asset of

2025 I think the companies that make

high bandwidth memory going back to

we're we're going to run out of

compute it's it's

um it's actually a pretty shocking stat

high band with memory is a bigger part

of in cogs on gpus than Taiwan Simi is

and today there's two companies that can

make it h HX and Micron we'll see if

Samsung gets their act together but hbm

memory it's in Nvidia gpus AMD gpus

Amazon

terraniums and particularly in a world

of test time compute and inference being

so important H been with memory is

arguably more important than it ever was

and it's been um it's been sold out for

the last two years so high band with

memory would be my pick okay good pick

great pick in fact what do you got Jam

so let me preface this by saying that

this is a pick

that 92 times out of

100 goes to absolute zero

okay and six out of the remaining eight

times you make 10 extra money and then

the final two times you make anywhere

between a 100 to a thousand extra money

okay sounds like Bitcoin okay so this is

a loser trade okay but I would be long

CDs so what am I buying I am buying

insurance I'm buying

Insurance using credit default swaps I'm

buying what's called protection that

there is no default event in

25 again I'm not going to tell

you which companies or what maturities

but just the general idea for me is I

would like a little bit of an insurance

policy in

2025 so that the men and the women that

we have voted in have the chance to do

their work in peace I think that there

is a small

chance of some volatility next year I

hope it doesn't happen I hope that this

trade like I said 92 times out of 100

loses money I hope it loses

money but if it hits it will be the best

performing asset of 2025 it will be the

equivalent of acman buying

CDs right at the right at the beginning

of the covid crisis how does one buy

those you have to have an isda you talk

to the big investment Banks and they'll

price it out for you but again I and and

I just want to be clear this is not

something I think will happen it's not

something I want to happen but I do

think that if you look back in terms of

just the tonnage of dollars you can make

and the massive risk asymmetry that it

presents to you when you look at the

concentration of the S&P when you look

at just the total gross amount of debt

that we have when

you look at rate spiking all of these

things say having a little

Insurance may not be a bad thing so I

hope you're nodding Gavin you're nodding

you want to ask no no I was just I was

just thinking I mean if