I've never found a technician who's been

successful in calling market tops

consistently. And I found a technician

who's been successful in calling market

bottoms s consistently at least based on

his data. And that's myself. This is a

very bullish pattern where the market

spends a couple of months below an

all-time high and then when it breaks to

the all-time high, it breaks in an

upside gap, which means there's a lot of

underlying buying pressure. Most likely

that is bullish. I'd say 80% of the time

it follows through to an upside market.

I am joined once again by Milton Berg of

MB Advisors and Miltonberg Edge. Milton

is one of the greatest market

technicians alive and he focuses on a

lot of things that most uh technical

analysts don't follow. So, he's mostly

not looking at charts. He's looking at

data. He's looking at turning points.

Milton, it is great to see you again.

Welcome back to Monetary Matters.

>> Thank you, Jack. Nice to be back. We had

a nice meeting last time, February 5th,

right after gold peaked. And now we have

a good meeting because it looks like

stocks may have bottomed. At least the

semiconductors and Cosby may have

bottomed after really sharp declines.

Let's see.

>> Yep. You had a a great call when you

identified the top in in gold and

silver. I believe you actually sold your

your personal precious metals the day

>> day before the high. Actually, the day

of the high.

>> Day of the high. Day of the high. Yeah.

So, Milton, I know you got a lot of buy

signals in early April. We will get into

that. over 30 buy signals with median

projections of between 8,000 and over

10,000 on the S&P. We will get into that

in a moment, Milton. But first, where do

things stand right now? Uh uh tell us

about the panic low you saw in July

29th, the potential bull readings you

see right now, potential readings you

see now, and to to what degree your

confidence and why in your various

portfolios and model portfolios you are

positioned the way you are. So what's

your frame? What's your positioning

right now and why?

>> Okay. Well, currently we're positioned

100% long. This is our positioning. EW

is a CASPY index. We're positioned 5%

long Caspie

>> Korea.

>> Korea, right? We're position nearly 10%

long the Russell 2000, 5% long the S&P

Midcaps, 10% long the NASDAQ 100, 20%

long the stocks and 49 nearly 50% long

the S&P 500 through the SPY. I'm

pointing out we just positioned long on

July um 29th and 30th because we were

short until then. So we actually covered

our shorts the day of the low, the day

after the low and went long. Uh so

that's really our position currently.

It's really diversified mainly, you

know, in this the socks was is an index

that lost some uh what over 20%, we'll

get to that in a minute. And the and CSY

of course is down nearly 40%. So we

really got into the losers thinking that

they were way oversold. There was some

panic selling. They should at least have

a short-term bounce if not more. Anyway,

that was our position. But basically,

we're bullish the market now. along the

market with some caveats with some very

very important cav caveats. I can start

with the S&P 500 if you'd like.

>> Mhm.

>> And the SP500 basically peaked in in

late May. It made a minor new high in

June on a closing [clears throat] basis.

But um it collapsed about down four and

a half% into June 9th, just a couple of

days after its its peak. It never made a

lower low. The low in July 29th was a

positive divergence against the low in I

think it was June 9th. July 29th low was

above the low on the in June. So that's

what's called a positive divergence. The

market although pe people were panicking

selling out of the semiconductor stocks.

The NASA 100 was making new lows and the

the Philadelphia semiconductor index is

making new lows but the S&P did not make

a new low which is a positive divergence

which a technician would say that's just

a sign that the market should be headed

higher. That's one positive sign. I I

use a term Montgomery date. Every time

you mention cycle dates, people uh I

know people comment on your site. Oh,

what's he talking about? I shut this

off. I as soon as I heard about cycle

dates. I want to point out that we have

some of the most sophisticated uh money

managers in the world as clients and

they're very very um happy that we we

talk about cycle dates because cycle

dates is something that other people

don't look at. People talk about

seasonality. Seasonality is also

something which really doesn't make any

rational sense. But um the cycle dates

often work very very well in pinpointing

market turning points. Um earlier in the

year, if I can show you here, we we

listed what our cycle dates. As you can

see, we had a cycle date on January

30th, which is the day that gold

collapsed. You see, and we had a cycle

date on right here on on July 29th. See,

July 29th, 2026 cycle date that was the

center of the date. The point is that

cycle dates help us out in pinpointing

turning points. The rally is that the

S&P bottom of the July 29th, made a nice

spike low, turned right up, made a new

high on a closing basis on Friday, and

today it's down a bit, but it basically

um the market was bullish off the July

29th high low, and we we're long.

Looking at the technical analysis over

here, I point out that there's another

cycle period right now. You see this

this this square here or this half

square is telling you that the next four

days are possible to see another trading

point where the market might peak. Now,

what's the logical reason? Why would

there be a turning point if the market

just bottomed? The reason is because

maybe the market is making a a broad top

here. The reality is although the S&P is

at a new high on Friday's close, uh you

look at other indices like the NASDAQ

100, NASDAQ 100 is below it it its low

of of early in the year, below its low

of June 2nd. NASDAQ at its high, it's

3.02% below its it's currently 3.02%

below the high it made in in um on June

2nd. and you take another index like the

um like the Philadelphia semiconductor

index as well and that at at Friday's

close was uh 15.57%

below its peak on um on June 22nd. So

the point I'm trying to make is although

we we were bullish on the market and

although we are um

we're thinking the market rally, it's

possible you got a all we saw in July

was a short-term low with a sharp sharp

rally. You know, you had the fiveday

rate of change was the greatest in

overear and two two over the major

indices. So you saw a very sharp rally

lasting about maybe what is it six seven

days but it's possible it's just a a a

leg up with negative divergences

negative divergence meaning the S&P is

making a new high the Russell made a new

high but the broad many other broad

indices are not making new highs and

it's possibly we'll will will go back

down to test the lows. Now let me give

you a historical example. Now you

realize we had really we had a serious

decline in two major index indexes. We

had a serious decline in the Caspby

>> Korea

>> Korea index right major Korean declined

43.93% in 27 days bottomed again on the

on July 29th McGomery cycle date which

was a turning point date and we had we

had the Philadelphia semiconductor index

also had a major decline. I mean that

was a leader up over 100% from its lows

in March to its peak in in in June. It

declined 28.73%

into the July 29th low. So I gave

historically when you see a crash low at

least historically these lows are

tested. Markets generally don't crash

and go straight straight up. Now of

course there was an exception in the CO

situation when the market was down from

35% or so into its COVID low and and

made a V bottom and turned right up.

That's generally not the case. I give

two examples of what might happen now.

And this is the 1987 crash low. You see

the market was down SP was down 45.94%

similar to the decline we had in the

Cosby that was the low but it ultimately

tested the low came within a percentage

point of low two months later that's

what happened at that particular crash

low therefore I'm suggesting that the

Cosby and the and the socks may rally

may peak right around here and trade

back down to the lows it may peak right

around here because as I said currently

we're in a cyclic period which has

called in the past the end of short-term

short-term rally short short sharp

rallies after what you call a cyclical

low. So basically, we're pos position

100% long. We're bullish. We're on the

lookout for the possibility of a

short-term top here, and we don't think

the S&P would would test the lows if

we're in a bullish uh situation, but we

think it's more than more than random

chance that the Socks index and the CASP

index trade back down towards the lows

sometime in the next month or two. And

we're cautious about that. Now again,

we're 20% long the the socks the the

Philadelphia semiconductor index and

we're 5% long the costby. I wouldn't be

long by shorts. It's going to test its

lows. So we're really watching out to

see whether there'll be evidence of a

trading point right here in the current

market. There is evidence

there is equivocal evidence that the

market's topping here and that is

because you see this this gap in the

NASDAQ NAS the NDX100 gapped into uh

four days after low it generated a gap.

Now, a gap off a low is usually

considered a uh breakaway gap, right?

It's usually a positive gap. But I've

seen in the past many, many instances

where the market makes a spike low,

rallies up, and this gap is actually

exhaustive. It's it's a sign that people

think the bull market is still intact or

or headed for a major upper move and

don't believe the market turns down.

This gap, I say, is possibly exhaustive,

possibly a negative sign. If it would be

a positive sign, the market really

should head straight up. This gap should

have been followed by a straight up

market. But in fact it's followed as you

can see by a trading market that's in

the NASDAQ 100 and you see the same

thing in the Caspby index. You see

Kaspby index had a major decline a major

reversal and then it gapped up right

here and that was it that it gapped into

its recovery high date. You see so on a

technical basis when you see a gap into

recovery high unless it follows through

immediately to the upside it it it was

called exhaustive. The logic of

exhaustive is there are people out there

who lost a lot of money and the people

out there who luckily were not in the

market and they didn't lose money.

They're saying, "Wow, the Cosby is down

nearly 44%. Let me get in." And they get

in in a panic because they don't want to

miss the move. You see, and that shows

up in gaps. So, that's another reason to

think we're going to test the lows. Or

that's e the best case scenario is the

gaps tell you going to test the lows.

The worst case scenario is that this is

just a f first leg in a bare market and

the market going to be headed lower. I

don't think that's the case at this

point. I don't have evidence for that,

but of course that that is that is a

possibility.

Um, so anyway, in summary, the S&P made

a nice low, positive divergence. It's

rallying. We're long the S&P. We're

going to look out this week, see whether

it's going to make a short-term top.

We're uh we we showed the fact that the

the great net selling in equities by the

retail people was greatest since 2022,

which is a positive for the market,

especially if the conditions are

bullish. The background conditions are

bullish. We show the semiconductor index

had a major crash down 28.73% in a short

period of time. It's in recovery rally,

but you see the gap. You had a gap right

here, and you have a a possible cyclic

top. So, we're on the lookout for the

possibility of a short-term top, but

we're still long. Um, NASA on the same

two, same situation. We had a panic low,

big rally, a gap, which looks exhausted

because it didn't follow through to the

upside. And um, and same thing with the

Cosby. Big crash. Most likely the crash

is going to lead to a three, four, five

month strong upside move. most likely.

It's it's also quite likely quite

probable that it's going to test its

load before that, but there's an outside

chance there's a first leg up in the

bare market. I have no evidence for

that. I I don't see anything within the

economy or any other than speculation in

stocks. I see nothing in the economy

that that suggests at this point there's

a reason to suspect that this is just

one first leg down in the bare market.

Unless we're headed for a major

recession, major economic dislocation, I

see no reason to think this wasn't just

a normal crash, which would be followed

by a multi-month rally. That's the most

logical scenario as I see it. But we're

on the lookout. As I pointed out in in '

87, you had a similar crash, similar to

the Caspby market rallied sharply for a

few days as a Cosby did. Then it started

churning and made a lower low. I think

it was December 4th. The the made a

lower closing low, but not a lower

intraday low. I told my clients on the

institutional side, if the Cosby tests

the lows, it should make it quite

possibly will make a new closing low but

should not make a new intraday low. If

it makes a new intraday low, it's more

likely that was just a leg up in the be

in a bare market that will continue. But

we see no economic evidence to suggest

that a 48% 43% decline

should lead to even greater decline over

the short term. Very little reason to uh

to believe that. So that's about it for

the uh for my current view.

I I'm not in long and gold and silver. I

had been long. We got out and the market

has been rallying, but the same story

since we're in a cyclic period, that

rally may taper off this week at the m

the golden, you know, longterm we're

still negative on gold and silver. We

think at a major multi-year high back in

January based on the evidence we pointed

at that time, which I may show you later

on in this interview if we get to gold

and silver. So, you like the fact that

the S&P 500 held in well as the

semiconductor index, as the Korean stock

market, as the NASDAQ were declining. To

you, that's bullish for the S&P 500.

Let's talk about the eye of the storm.

those three assets, the the semi-index,

the NASDAQ, and the Korea, which I would

argue, you know, where putting my

fundamental hat on that are they're very

similar to the same trade given that

Korea is like 50% semiconductors or

semiconductor adjacent and

semiconductors obviously semiconductors

and NASDAQ are dominated by

semiconductor and and tech. So, it

really is the AI tech hardware trade.

Why for your institutional clients were

you short you know in that June uh you

know June to July 29th and why on that

July 29th low did you subsequently cover

your shorts and then go long on on July

30th and tell us about that signal that

you saw in terms of panic liquidation

you know which we now know was a a hedge

fund liquidating all of its you know

public uh public public longs and

publicly traded traded holdings. Um,

just tell us about that that signal that

you saw on July 29th. July July 32th.

July 29th. And I I know you want to go

back. We will go back, but just

>> It has to do You're asking me why we

were short, so we really have to go back

to our last conversation.

>> Sure. Sure. Okay. Okay.

>> This is the chart. We last spoke on

February 5th. I showed you we have an

indicator which doesn't always work, but

when it works, it it works very, very

well. It's called the VXN deviation from

trend indicator, and basically tells you

this panic buying in the VXN. VXN is a

is a um VIX for the NASDAQ 100. It's

called the VXN. Okay, this these signals

occur when there's a sharp decline, a

sharp short-term decline in the VXN

relative to a longer term average. Now,

it's it's when a longer term average is

not going to be I promise you it's not

more than three weeks, okay? We're not

talking about the one-year average. And

we're talking something like three days

over over over 14 days or four days over

17 days, something like that. Anyway, we

got a sell signal on December 11th, 2025

two. Now, what happens in December 11th,

2025? I'm going to bring the NASDAQ 100

right here. Um, if [snorts] I can bring

it, do you see this? This my screen. The

NDX um back this is back here. You see

NDX peaked on on October 29th, 2025, but

really went nowhere for quite a number

of months. Um, NDX peaked on right here

on on October 30th. And by um by this

date of uh January 28th, it was down

0.027%.

it looks like. So it really it went

nowhere.

Having said that, it got nowhere. We had

a dece we had a sell sign on December

11th for the market in general. So that

was one of the one of the background

reasons we believe that the market

should decline. In fact, looking at the

um Philadelphia semiconductor index,

okay, here's a semiconductor index. You

see, semi also did nothing for that

period basically. You see, it did

nothing and we're on a sell signal. It's

one of the reasons they were negative.

But more than that, you see this sign,

this little little exhaustive gap. Maybe

I can make this a little bigger so you

can see it.

>> Yeah.

>> See this this there are two gaps two

gaps in a row in the the in the in the

stocks index semucks right here into

this peak.

>> It reminds us what a gap is, Milton. A

gap is where the market opens up above

the previous day's intraday high

and stays above it all day which is very

a very rare occurrence is certainly a

very rare occurrence in a broad index.

Now the market opens higher opens higher

than its highest high of the prior day

and holds it for the full day.

>> It's not a positive gap. The the

negative gap is when it opens lower than

the the previous day.

>> It's not a positive gap. It's an upside

gap or a downside gap. An upside gap is

very often a negative gap.

>> It's a sign. It's a sign of panic

buying. People don't care about price.

They don't care that we're buying it

buying an index at a price higher than

it traded in the last in the last day or

last week or last month, which was the

case here. They didn't care and they

bought it uh you know and and basically

gapped up. This case was exhaustive. So

you s Now you you never know if a gap is

going to be exhaustive. A gap could

either be what you call impulsive,

headed to headed high or exhaustive.

When a gaps come after a long move, it's

most likely to be exhaustive. When a gap

comes after a decline, upside gaps after

decline is most likely to be impulsive.

That's the rule, one of the rules. Now,

we have no we have no hard and fast

rules. We watch watch the market each

day. And we we we we determine based on

the on other indicators whether it's

likely this this move is exhaustive or

or impulsive. Anyway, these these gaps

prove to be exhaustive. The Russ the

Sachs did not manage to get

significantly higher than it did at the

time. these gaps and ultimately declined

16.64%.

So the the reason we were short really

was things we spoke about last time

which was that um

we had a sell signal on the um on the

VIX uh the VXET indicator. This is a

history of the declines for the

successful signals. Um

the history of the declines we were down

17 down 23. As you can see in our

instance the the uh stocks declined some

um some uh 16% to its low in in um in

March. The SP declined some uh 8% or so

to its low. So it wasn't the greatest

signal but the reality was is that it

was one of the reason we remain short

combined with the with the chart

patterns I showed you. combined the fact

of exhaustive gaps the fact combined the

fact that the market had gone nowhere

for a while. So and then on March 30th

which we'll get to later as you said

from March 31st through the end of April

we had at least 20 buy signals which

which got us long and as you know you

know it was a historic rally not

necessarily historic rally for the S&P

500 though some people claimed it was

>> but certainly was a historic rally for

the Philadelphia semiconductor index

which gained over 100% or the S&P uh

technology index which gained over 90%.

So really was a stark rally. So this the

the sharp decline we saw into the lows

of into the lows of um of March 30th was

a setup for the move we just had. And

the question is is that move over or is

that you know part of a bull market that

we'll discuss a little later on. This is

what I showed you last time. Um I showed

you the gap. You see this is a gap back

in January of the Russell. This is a

chart. I just copied it from our last

interview and I suggested this is

bearish. Now where did the Russia go

from there? the Russell ultimately went

uh

>> this is the gap I showed you. You see?

>> Yeah.

>> Ultimately climbed to total 12.07%. So

that gap proved successful even though

when we spoke last time all I was able

to show you was was a few days action

which is right here. You see but

ultimately that gap proved to be an

exhaustive gap and it was an island

reversal as well. These are all

technical terms but the reality is

reason we were short was because the

market gave indications of a top. We had

no idea what and I said at the time we

have it it's quite pos at any given day

now it's possible the market to make a

major long-term top everything that is

necessary for the market to be at a

long-term top is basically in place you

have overvaluation you have you have um

in in many measures you know the

so-called buffer indicator of of of

market cap to GDP which has been

overvalued for a decade but it's more

overvalued than ever ever in history or

you look at um very margin debt for

example relative to cash balances it's

it's highest in history or whether you

look at how interest rates are acting

with the long bond even the even the

short rates they're rallying it's quite

possible the market top right here and

we head for a multi-year beer market

it's quite possible but we're not

projecting that if it happens it

wouldn't surprise me but you know we're

not fear-mongers I'd rather market give

me evidence that that it's topping and

at that point we'll decide to uh either

go short or just get out of the market

get into treasury bills but at this

point with the market making a new high

on on on on Friday S&P even though there

are divergences is we want to see more

more evidence that the market's topping

strictly some divergences. As I said

last time, I say it again. All these

fear mongers out there are correct. It's

quite possible that the market peaks

today and crashes 50 to 80% over the

next year. It's quite possible because

the background is in place. However, the

fact that the background is in place

does not mean the bull market has ended

because the nature of a speculative bull

market is that as much as overvalued as

it is and how as much evidence as there

is the market's topping, it doesn't top

until it tops. And that's been the case.

Now, I'm saying this because every time

I turn bearish, in the back of my mind,

I say, I don't know if it's going to be

a correction or a bare market. I have no

idea. We get bearish when we see a

turning point signal at a top and we get

bullish when we see a turning point

signal at a bottom. But we really when

we see a top we have no especially in

the current situation we we have no idea

whether it's going to be just a

corrective decline or a major bare

market because the background is

definitely in place and I'm not going to

argue for for a major bare market. Now

one one thing that's not in place is

usually don't get a major bare market

until the Federal Reserve tightens and

they haven't tightened yet. So we don't

want to anticipate will the Fed tighten

or not but it's most likely that uh

Kevin Walsh will tighten and he most

likely do some quantitative tightening

as well besides raising rates. But you

don't have to anticipate it. You know,

usually bare markets take place after

the Fed moves. Bare markets don't bare

markets anticipate the economy. I mean,

boom, stock markets anticipate the

economy, but they don't anticipate

Federal Reserve moves. They wait for the

Federal Reserve to make it make a move

before the markets turn. So therefore,

for that reason, it's likely that the

market has not really peaked yet. At

least the S&P 500, the high we saw at

least on Friday, most likely not the

final peak, but it it's possible that it

is. So, I don't know if I answered your

question about what we're seeing now. So

look at this. Let me show you this

Cosby. See the Cosby had an exhaustive

downside gap two days before the low

>> on July 29th. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Two days before July 49th had we

told our clients we expect one more day

of panic. We had one more day of panic

and that's where we got long because you

know usually usually you don't see one

day of panic. Usually it's two days of

panic into a crash low and that's what

we saw. the type of load you saw when

you have this major liquidation major

margin margin liquidation you have

people in the United States who weren't

necessarily liquidated on margin but

selling because of what's happening in

Korea that's really a reason to go

counter the market and and to go long

and we really waited for the evidence at

the low besides the Montgomery date we

saw the reversal we went long on the

reversal so not not not

a lot of sophisticated analysis here

strictly market watching analyzing

markets and keeping on top this is a

very important line I didn't mention you

see this line across right here. This

little dotted red line.

>> This is the S&P 500. S&P 500 broke to a

new all-time high. This is the line.

This is the previous all-time high. This

is the breakout, but it broke out on a

gap. You see, usually when you break out

on a gap, it's an impulsive gap.

Usually, it's a sign that marks head

much higher usually. And I I'm going to

give it right now. I said we're 50% long

the S&P. We're giving you the benefit of

the doubt. This is be impulsive gap. But

let's see what happens over the next few

days where you have this uh we have this

uh Montgomery date, you have this

turning point date. But you know, we're

staying long till we see evidence that

things are changing. But this is a very

bullish pattern. This is a very bullish

pattern where the market is spends a

couple of months below an all-time high

and then when it breaks to the alltime

high, it breaks in an upside gap which

means there's a lot of underlying buying

pressure. Most likely that is bullish.

I'd say 80% of the time it follows

through to an upside market. So that's

based on chart patterns alone of why

we're why we're bullish here. Um

why we're bullish currently. Now it's

also based on data and I'll have to get

to the data a little later but this is

this is what we see at this moment.

>> And Milton, one thing you've said to me

is that everyone wants technical

analysts, market technicians to call

market tops, but actually it's far

easier to call market bottoms. So, even

though you happen to you made a bare

call when we did our interview in early

February and you know that happened to

be right on the Russell S&P,

congratulations, but you actually have

less confidence in bearish signals than

you do in bullish signals. And actually,

I think some of your you've had some

incredible uh calls over over the

interviews that I've had with you um

over over the past four years, but I

think some of them have been right after

market panics on the bullish side. And

that is kind of where we're positioned

right now.

>> Right. This is the story. The reason

most technicians and most analysts are

always trying to call a top because

they're worried about a top. You know,

most investors are long the market.

Let's face it, you know, 99% of of

investment is long the market. You're

lucky to see one or two% uh short short

interest in in a broad market, you know.

So throughout the world, the trillions

of dollars, the S&P 500, people are

invested long. By the fact they invested

long, they're worried, not worried the

market's going to rally. All they're

worried about is the market might

decline. Now, they're really not worried

about a minor decline of 5, 10, or 15%.

They're really worried about a crash 50,

60, 70, 40%. Right? That's what they're

worried about. And therefore, it would

technicians and and market analysts

always worried about that. And I say,

I've learned over the years, I've been

in this business for quite, you know,

more years than I can count. Do not,

it's not necessary to anticipate a bare

market. Wait till the market declines 4%

or 5% or 6% or 8% or 9%.

And get out then in anticipation the

market may go down another 30%. You

don't have to call the exact top. And

not only do you not have to call the

exact top, it's very difficult to call

the exact top because the nature of

market tops are that they're generally

the rolling tops. They're generally not

v. They're not VTOPS. They're generally

rolling tops where one index makes high

one month and another makes high another

month. And it's very difficult to call.

I've never found a technician who's been

successful in calling market tops

consistently. And I found a technician

who's been successful in calling market

bottom s consistently at least based on

his data. And that's myself because

we've modeled every market low since

1957. And we know we have thousands of

of I can show it to you later. We have

thousands. You can give me any date and

I'll tell you what, you know, show you

our model for that date. We've modeled

every market low. So I I found for

myself it's much easier to call a market

low. You don't have to call every market

top. If you get in, if you get get it in

at the lows and you get out eight or

nine% after the peak, you're going to do

fine.

>> Mark the stock markets don't make sharp

uh sharp tops. They make rounding tops.

But, you know, commodities make sharp

tops.

>> Yes, commodities make one of the reason

one of the reasons commodities make

sharp tops is because unlike the stock

market, commodities trade in the futures

market. They don't trade in a real

exchange. For every short, there's a

long. If every long there's a short.

Anytime you see a market rallying in

anytime you see commodity market

rallying, you know that there's a lot of

shorts on the other side of that trade,

you know, and those shorts are going to

panic into a top and cause cause a a

spike top. In the stock markets, the

other way, people don't really panic

when the market's rallying. The shorts

may panic, but you don't see not enough

shorts to cause the the market to show

panic uh uh evidence at the top and then

at the bottom where trillions of dollars

are along the market. That's when people

feel they have to sell even though

they're told by their adviserss that

over the long-term markets always rally,

which is not really true, but they said

they're told long-term markets always

rally. People still panic when they

their their portfolio is down 20% to 30

or 40 or 50% depending on the person's

um constitution. So therefore, you see

panic lows in the stock market. you

don't see panic. Now, we we see panic

tops because we're looking at very

subtle information. We're looking at for

example exhaustive gaps that take place

at a top or we're looking or we look for

um you know diver negative divergences

which are very very subtle which most

people can't see. At market bottoms

though the evidence is not so subtle.

It's really blatant and obvious but

people ignore it because they're afraid

that the market's going to go low. Cosby

is a perfect example. Cosby is down 40

43 45. No, this is 87. Cos got 43.93% in

in 27 days and now everyone's afraid

it's going to go lower. You know what I

mean? You should have been afraid it's

going to go lower at the top. Now

they're afraid it's going to go low.

Afraid to get in. I say to myself,

evidence is that it's bottom. Let's get

in. It's going to make a test at a low.

Maybe we'll we'll we'll sit through the

test. Most likely got early and buy get

it to test. And if it's the unlikely

scenario that's going to immediately go

down and make, you know, down 50 60 70%

we'll be out because we'll once we once

the internet law is violated, we know

that we're wrong and we'll be out. But

people always worry about declines after

the decline. I remember the crash of 87.

I was involved in the market. I worked

at Openheimer at the time. Crash of 87.

We called I called the crash very well.

We I I managed a mutual fund that went

into 90% cash before the at the top.

>> Very good.

>> There's another story. But I remember at

the bottom all the all my portfolio

managers in the group who were bullish

at the top were bearish at the bottom.

They're afraid to buy. I said I said buy

by now is the time to buy. But that

that's just nature of this of this

business. So yes markets uh stock

markets make V bottoms spike bottoms

they make rounded tops you see but

commodities are differently commod see

even this is even this in the cases it's

a rounded top because you have a top

here and a top here not much of a

difference you see or let's look at the

NASDAQ 100 latest top you see a peak

here a slight lower peak here slightly

lower peak here you see

>> y

>> but the bottom on the other hand most

like most generally is a V some you test

it and come off with another V

semiconductor same story you had a

double island reversal

very very rare. I've never seen it

before actually a double island. This is

the June top. I I point out to my

clients reversal right here in in early

in mid June and then in late June a

double island reversal right after

reverse is it gaps up then the market

gaps down and creates a um two two

spaces which creates an island reversal

island reversal here. This is also you

know it's not a V top. This is really a

rounding top. As you can see the bottom

looks more like a V bottom. We'll see

whether that continues to the upside

today. right now uh the semiconductors

actually made a new made a new high on

Friday I think semiconductors uh index

>> generated a new intraday high on Friday

another slightly higher in day high

today but now it's down in the day but

so uh it's doing fine you know this this

this this gap might prove to be uh

impulsive we'll see see what happens

okay that's the current market I like to

tell you that why really why I'm bullish

not strictly because of not strictly

because of the cycle lows and the action

we've seen off the lows that's not the

main reason I'm bullish there more

important reason that I'm bullish So you

have to go we have to go back in time

>> to

>> March to April. Go back to April really.

Right.

>> Go back to April and um

>> was when you we got the buy signals. I I

counted actually I think you got over

you got at least 34 buy signals in late

March, early April and they they had

median projections on the S&P 500 from

8,200 to over 10,000 on the S&P. So

sorry to steal your thunder. No, they're

not getting the thunder because without

evidence, without showing the data,

anyone, you know, you know how many

people get up there even on your show

and they project, you know, oil's going

to $500 or silver's going to $2,000

without really evidence, you know, it's

just fantasy.

It's just it's really it's just fantasy.

It's just a dream. It's a fantastic

dream people have without evidence. So,

at least everything every time we make a

projection is based on evidence. Now, we

don't trade based on projections, but

everything we do is really based on

evidence. And let me get to that right

now. So, we're going to get to uh we're

going to get to the uh why really why

we're bullish. We got a buy signal on

May March 31st, which I ignored at the

time. I'll tell you why in a minute.

Then we got a signal April 10th, April

13th, April 4th. We got multiple

signals. April 14th, April 15th, April

16th, April 17th, April 20th, 22nd, and

27th. Let's take one at a time. It won't

be complicated just to show you what we

saw. This signal was ignored because it

only happened once before in history.

And I don't use signals that only

happened once before even though it was

a clear oversold market on March 31st.

What happened at the time? The S&P 400

was down for five weeks in a row. And

these not calendar weeks. These we we we

break up the market into five day five

day segments. Each segment is called a

week. So we had the the SP 400 was down

five week five five day segments in a

row. Russ 2000 was down five weeks in a

row. SP500 was down five weeks in a row.

And then right and the OEX was up 3% for

the day. In other words, right?

>> What's the OEX?

>> The S&P 100 index, the big one of the

largest stocks in the S&P was up 3% on

one on that day. This is this is March

31st. This is March 31st, right? Y

>> the S the S&P made a 4-day high, one day

past the 4 day low, which is also rare

occurrence. Russ was up 3% of the day

March 31st. NASDAQ was up three and a

half% of the day. SP4 was up 2 and a

half% of the day. SP 20 was up 500 was

up two and three/4ers of the day. SB

advances over declines was greater than

4 to one. S&P 400 the midcaps advance

over decline is greater than 4 to one.

S&P 600 advanced climbing is greater

than 4 to1. Unfortunately, it only

happened once in history at a major

major market low which is right here at

the co low. Let me show it to you. It

only took place once before at the co

low to have all these things happen at

the same time. Market all these markets

down five days five weeks in a row and

one day past that low all these marks of

3% or so on and and strong line. We

couldn't use an indicator but that exact

same thing happened right here on March

31st 2026.

>> Yeah. So, so Milton, I mean, so you

have, you know, people uh who do sports

betting are familiar with the term

parlay of, oh, I I I expect A to happen

and B to happen and C to happen. You

kind of have this 11 or 12 thing signals

where all of these things were triggered

at the same time. And but this thing has

only happened once and it was on March

24th, 2020, which was

>> one day after the CO,

>> one day after the I mean, Milton, if if

I know if I get a call and it's you and

you say, Jack, I've got a 12 leg signal.

It's only been triggered once and it's

been triggered on March 24th, 2020. Are

you buying? Are you selling? Or are you

holding? I'm saying I'm buying. I'm a

buyer.

>> You know what? You know what? I have the

discipline that I don't trade on the

signal that only signaled once. Even

though logically, you are right. And and

I always tell my clients, this is

illogical, but um it just it just

protects me. In this case, it cost us

8%. We didn't lose 8%, but we got in we

didn't get a conventional buy signal

until April 10th, which is eight days

off the low. This signal took place one

day after the low. So I'm being

admitting my my errors. Call it an

error, but in the future if it happens

again it will be a buy signal now going

into my model since it happened twice.

But the point is this projects to

8565.42

as a median projection within a year of

the signal which is another 10.42% above

current levels. Okay, let me get to the

next one.

>> Uh um wait, Milton, sorry. Sorry, but I

I have it as it predicts to 10,000

10,600.

>> Yeah, you're right. Let me tell you why

I'm doing this and I Yes. A good

question. I didn't think I thought I can

get it by you.

>> This only happened once before. There's

no median. You see

>> once before and let me [clears throat]

get you the numbers. Boy. Oh boy. Here

it is.

>> Yeah. The March 24th

>> happened once before the market gained

62.39%

within a year. However, within 60 days

of the signal, the S&P gained 16% which

exactly half of what it gained after the

220 low, 2020 low. So I I cut the

projection in half

>> to make it fair because I couldn't use

the the the 62.39%.

>> So technically Milton, you had a signal

that was ridiculously bullish on a

sample size of one to be fair, but

ridiculously bullish. And you you made

the nonsatic discretionary decision to

say actually I'm going to tone it down.

I'm going to tone the bull.

>> B I did it based on data. I did it based

six days after the signal. You had a

great move up 16%. That's phenomenal.

Yeah. But it's half of what took place

in [clears throat] 2020. So I in order

to be a little bit conservative, I'm

using half the projection. That's only

the only case. Every other instance had

more than one signal. Here's the next

signal. This is on this signal takes

place on on on April 10th. Okay. This is

what got our clients long. We got long

based on this signal. So in this case,

very simple, reasonable, easy signal.

NASDAQ 100 declined at least 12% and

held it low for eight days. So we're

eight days past the low. During those

eight days, the NASDAQ composite is up.

In each of those days, eight out of

eight days. Okay, two simple indicators.

NASDAQ declines 12%. It holds its low

for eight days. NASDAQ 100 and the

NASDAQ composite was up eight out of

eight days. Very simple indicator yet

it's only happened three times in the

past. And that projects the minimum

would be to 7940 2.59 which is only

2.38% above current. The medium of the

that's the actual minimum return. It's

not the medium of the minimum return.

It's the actual minimum return in

history. the median of the maximum

return to take us up to 8953. Another

15% gain above Friday's close. Let me

show you a little bit about this. You

see this this this signal in October

18th, 1985, September 14th, 1988,

August 19th, 2024, and April 10th, 2026.

And I showed that we're in line. You see

this this little light gray line? We're

in line with historical returns. So

there's no reason to doubt those

signals. You see this little gray line?

This is where we are now. So since we're

in line with what happened in the past,

no reason to doubt that will not

continue. That's another reason why

we're bullish. Not just because what

happened now in July. You see the way we

understand markets is markets make great

bottoms and market great make great

tops. What takes place in between is is

generally random. It's very difficult to

analyze the market on a day-to-day

basis. It's good to mark we analyze

markets exceptionally well at turning

points. But once you get to turning

points, you know, the market trend is

high for half a year or a year or so on

depending on history. So anyway, we're

still in line and as I say, the medium

return is 31.35%.

And we're already up, you know, and that

that projects, as I said, to uh to uh 89

53.99 or up 15% from here. That's on

April 10th. Then we got another signal

as I said on April um on April 13th.

Another very pretty pretty simple signal

and that is S&P it was nine days off the

low. S&P declined at least 9% and held

its low for nine days. S&P 500 generated

a new 30-day high, which is quite

interesting that after a 9% decline,

nine days later, it had a new 30-day

high. NASDAQ had its greatest 10-day

rate of change in 180 days. And the S&P

500's 10-day rate of change was above

8%. These four these four occurrences

happened four times in the past. And the

minimum gain you ever saw would take you

to 824283, which is another 6.25%.

the median of all the all the maximum

danger in the year takes another 12.27%.

So this is another reason why we're

bullish not necessarily bullish because

what happened at the bottom in July

we're bullish because of the bottom took

place in March and and the buy signals

in April and going through this as you

will see again this is the 82 84 8 98

signal the current signal but most

important thing we're in line with the

previous signals the market is not out

of sync with what had taken place

previously. So our assumption is since

it's in sync, we'll probably you should

get, you know, close to the median or at

least to the minimum. The minimum return

is here, you know, and that's that's

another signal that's on April 13th.

That's that's not the last signal. Then

we get another signal on April on April

4th. We got many signal. I'm going to

show you one for each date. As you know,

we got over 30 signals, but I'm going

show you one for each date. This is

another signal took place in April 14th,

which is nine days after low. Russell

was up eight of the last nine days. The

Russell 2000's 10day rate of change was

the greatest in 1,260 days, which I

think is five years. So, the Russell

2000 off the March low had its greatest

10day gain in five years. Isn't that

fascinating?

>> Wow.

>> Even greater than what you saw off the

April 2025 low. Even greater than what

took place off the um COVID low. Pretty

fascinating, right? So, it's not only

the socks that had a record-breaking run

off the lows, gaining 100% off the March

lows on a 10-day basis. is the Russell

had it greatest gain in five years off

the lows of of March of March 30th and

the S&P also had it greatest 10day rate

of change in five years not just through

Russ even the SP 500 this is a great

momentum so this has this took place

five four times in the past and this

projects to a minimum the the minimum

gain we take it to 882628 which is

another 13% of Friday's close and the

median takes you up another 18% now

should we doubt this let's see where we

stand today looking into history right

here. We're right in line. We actually

were below it, but now we're back in

line. You see? So, in effect, if you

would have asked me this at the July

low, I say, "Well, this signal is no

longer working." But now, this search is

back in line with historical returns.

So, I have to give it a benefit of the

doubt. The signal works four times in

the past. It's an amazing signal,

amazing momentum. Now, there's an

argument, a logical argument that could

be made that this is a false signal.

logical argument and I don't believe in

this logical argument but people will

make this argument is when the market

surges like this it's a sign of an

unhealthy market if the market gained

more than it's gained in five years why

is that healthy that's not healthy that

means everyone's buying stocks my answer

is first the data tells me it's going

higher in the past whenever it happen

and secondly if everyone's buying stocks

that is a very bullish phenomena it's

not a bearish phenomena unless you see

evidence of the top and we don't see

evidence of the top especially now the

S&P is at a new a new alltime high

that's the signal that took place in

April April uh April 14th and the median

gain historically has been 32.08%.

Okay, now let's go to the next signal.

This took place on April 15th. Again,

one of the many signals. This doesn't

this is a cryptic. I don't give you the

exact the exact um formula what we're

looking at and Ned Davies Research has a

multiap equal dollar weighted index.

Okay, it's it's big caps, small caps,

midcaps all in one index, but they're

equal weighted. They're not cap

weighted. Okay? And what you do is

you're looking for deviation from trend

thrust. You're looking for amount of

give it as days. Let's say 10 days over

30 days. Okay, in this case it was 2.3

um times above

the um the 10day gain was 2.3 times

above the 30-day gain in theory, right?

That's a by thrust. So that took place

11 days after the S&P declined at least

9%. Okay, simple. You see a a a a a a a

a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a

a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a

a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a

a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a

a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a

deviation from trend upside thrust 11

days after a SP decline 9%. Okay, simple

indicator and again this projects to a

minimum of 84.94

a minimum a medium of 9767 which tells

me to be bullish and the history again

is you seen it you seen it here in after

major beer market but here wasn't after

major beer market this is always 94 was

a 15% decline in NASDAQ wasn't a major

beer market at all now we declined some

11 12% and you saw it in 98 we saw it in

2009 and we just see it here see right

off these lows the market has gained uh

uh off that and and current and we're in

line we're in line with the with the

history because even this instance it

gained 17% we're above see so we're

still in line it's a good signal that's

another reason we have to remain bearish

at this time

>> bullish bullish mean

>> bullish until we see evidence to change

now that then we get a number of signals

April 16th April 16th was 12 days after

low

and 12 days after low the S&P gained 10%

above its last 10% decline.

So what it is 12 days after the decline

of 9% the S&P is up 10%. Very simple.

You see people are looking for very

complicated indicators. And we've I say

we bottom we we've modeled every market

bottom since 1957. We found you don't

have to be a genius. You don't have to

actually you just have to be be logical

conservative and find simple indications

that take place at turning points and

that gives you an edge. You know we call

our retail product MB edge that

Miltonberg edge. gives us the edge. So,

let's see what this tells us. And this

basically tells us we'll either get to 9

7970, which is only 2 and 3/4% above or

another 17%. And um and let's see.

>> And so, Milton, in this only this

two-part indicator of the S&P declined

9% and it bottomed for for 12 days and

then it it um

>> gained 10% over its last low.

>> Gain 10% over if its last low. Those are

like two principles I see at play.

Number one, it was in a bare market and

it bottomed and the low held and then

from that low there was overwhelming

market action to the bull.

>> This idea that a market holds a low for

12 days is very significant. It seems

very simple. William O'Neal built the

whole business on what he calls

confirmation days. You know, he counts

four to seven days off a low and we

built on that. You know, we don't look

we don't look at four days, we look at

seven days. We built indicators using

one day, two day, three day, four day,

five day, you know, up to up to up to 25

days off lows. See what because we're

looking for turning points, you see. So,

it's it's a key that the market held us

low for 12 days and the market gained

10% into a new high into a new recovery

high into this date and looking at the

history, not in just just we're way in

line. You see, we're at we're basically

in line with historical. So, why should

I doubt the idea that these signals

remain valid? Follow. Let's go to the

next one. This this signal

this took place on uh April 20th.

Okay. VIX was down eight out of nine

days number one which is means that the

basically means the market was rallying

but VIX is down eight of nine days. The

Russell

the rate of change of the 10 rate of

change of of the of the NASDAQ was above

10%.

And again that same multicap

deviation from trend thrust was 2.3

times greater. In other words, the short

term was 2.3 times greater than the

longer term which is a thrust. This took

place four times in the past. This

projects to minimum of 8,600 and a

medium of 9,400. You know, I don't want

to bore anybody, but these are I'm just

trying to point out what we do is not

based on moving averages. What we're

doing not based on anticipating where

the price of oil is going to go or doing

is not anticipating whether the Fed will

tighten or whether it won't tighten. Not

that you know we don't look at the

things everyone else looks at. We look

at data market based data and the I I I

I'm an economist as well. I I know very

much about the economy, how to analyze

monetary policy, but that's not what we

trade based on. That just is the

background of my head if I want to feel

good about my views in the market. But

really, we look at the data. And in this

particular instance, as you'll see

again, we're we're we're in line. Again,

we're out. We weren't in line going back

until the June peak, but now we're back

in line with his history and I'll assume

that's going to continue. This is the

next signal took place. This signal is

on April 22nd.

This only occurred twice in the past.

The Russell, this is amazing. Okay.

>> Mhm.

>> I don't look at look I look at moving

averages with crossing. The Russell 2000

traded above its 5day moving average for

16 days in a row. Okay. Now,

interesting.

>> Wow. The market only bottomed 16 days

ago, which means at the day of the low,

the Russell was above its 5day moving

average, which is kind of fascinating.

On the day of the S&P low, the Russell

was above its 5day moving average.

Anyway, the point is that the Russell

was above its 5day moving average 16

days in a row, and the NASDAQ declined

at least 13% and held its low for 16

days. Get two simple things together.

Projects to a minimum of 8543 or a

medium of 92.99. And let's look at

history.

history is right here. It took place in

September 7th 82, March 7th, 2016 after

just a minor corrective low April and

right now April 22nd, 2026 and we're in

line. You see, we're in line with the

history. So, it's another bullish

indicator. Now, of course, the further

away you get from a from a uh from a

low, the fewer signals we get, but I

wouldn't say they're not as not as

reliable. You know, you're not going to

get a 10day upside thrust three days

after a low, but you're going to get a

10day upside thrust nine, 10, or 11 days

after a low. So, some signals by

definition can't signal at a low. You

have to have the market trade for one,

two, or three weeks after the low until

you get the buy signal. Any event, this

is a a signal on April 27th, last signal

we got. NAS 19 days after the NASDAQ's

decline, the NASDAQ was up 16 of 19

days. Okay, two interesting indicators.

NASDAQ made a decline of 10% held it for

19 days. During those 19 days, the

NASDAQ gained in 16 of those 19 days at

least. This took place three times in

the past. Let's see when they took

place. Let's see what happened. It

occurred right here. This is this is

very good because it's very similar to

our market. I say it's similar to our

market because

it didn't have a major major beer. It

didn't come after major bare market. It

came after minor correction. You see

right here November 4th, 1985.

>> Okay? Went straight up. Then you saw it

October 30th, 1986. Also after minor

correction, very similar to our case,

you see right here. And you saw it again

November 22nd, 2023 after also after

minor corrections. This is a very very

similar to our situation. And you saw it

right here after minor correction. You

see, and in this case, we're out of line

with the history, unfortunately. See,

and this this late signal, April 27th,

we're not in line. So if this had if all

our signals would show this, I'd say

they're not working. But since the bulk

the vast majority of the of the signals

the market is acting properly after the

vast majority of the signals we've seen

and that that keeps us bullish. That's

really

>> and for the mo and most of these signals

have very few false signals. Would that

be correct?

>> Uh no in this instance none of the

signals have false signals.

>> Exactly. That's okay. Yeah, that's my

point.

>> None of these signals. Now let me you

bring up a very good point. Okay. You

know again it took me 10 years to create

these models. Okay. And I couldn't I

couldn't manage money during the period

because you can't manage money and spend

time doing research at the same time.

It's impossible. That's why the the

great hedge fund managers hire people to

do research for them because they can't

do both. Even though like a guy like

Stan Duckenville is great doing

research, but he has to have people

doing research for him because he's he's

busy trading markets. Follow.

>> Y.

>> So anyway, your question is good. When I

built my models, I was very tolerant.

You know, if 80% of the time the market

did well, it was good enough for me. But

after going through so many indic I had

thousands of indicators I was able to

call them and eliminate all signals that

didn't work perfectly. So I'd say more

than 95% of my signals that I use are

perfect signals with no real no real

draw downs. When I say in the world red

downs there's a caveat to that and this

is a very important caveat because let's

say the I'm going to give you go back to

a previous chart to show you what I

mean. Okay. Uh let me show you here. You

see 198 198 1987 October 1987 right? You

got we got buy signals up 19th October

20. If the market declined 12% back to

its tested the low, but it held the

original low. The signal is telling you

that that was a turning point. The

signal is not necessarily going to tell

you that the market won't pull back to

test the low. So in some instances, we

considered a valid signal even though

the market pulls back because it held

the low and all the signal is telling

you is that's a turning point and that's

a good time. It's a good time to be long

the market. Now we've adjusted Federal.

I don't I don't make it complicated. For

institutional clients, we have we've we

we've made it a little more

sophisticated and we would get out after

x% decline and then get back in at the

low. But for the retail clients, if you

got in on October 19th, 87, we we

basically ride it unless unless you know

certain I don't want to make too

complicated, but we're turning point

analysis. If the turning point is there,

the fluctuations post the turning point

don't really matter so much. But most

signals are don't work this way. Most of

the signals, as you will see, are are

perfect signals. Let me go let me go

back to where we just looked at. Anyway,

this is a combination of all my signals,

not just the ones I showed you. These

are all the signals starting on March

24th through um through April 27th. The

median uh

>> Go ahead. Go ahead.

>> April 27, the minimum expected return is

to take it to 828621 in the S&P, which

is another 6.82%.

The median of the maximum returns would

take you up another 15.49%

to 8958.23. 23 that's what get all our

signal.

>> So Milton I remember in 2023 the spring

we did an interview and you literally

said bullish bullish bullish and you

said I challenged the bears and

obviously that bull call turned out

>> that signal took that that took place um

after the October October.

>> Yep. Yep. So Milton what is your level

of confidence right now relative to your

level of confidence when we did that

interview when you said I challenge the

Bears? Are you are you able or willing

to say I challenge the bears today or

not?

>> No, I I would say the following. I would

say the following. It's totally the

confidence not the same because that

came after a major bare market. This is

coming off a minor correction.

So this is more of a of a of a trading

signal because um if the mark as I said

if the market in October 22nd of 2022 I

would say there's no way the mark's

going to crash from here. Impossible.

When I look at what I call is my uh my

my technical indicators, there was too

many bullish indicators to tell you that

the market could make a top here and and

we hadn't been at we're coming off a

low. Now we're at an all-time high in

the S&P 500 with major divergences. I'm

not arguing major divergences versus

some other broad indexes. So, you know,

maybe you only get to the minimum which

is another 6.82%. I can't it's different

than it was then.

>> Okay. If you ask some if somebody asked

you where to be positioned the answer is

to be positioned long now not short and

not out of the market because you just

had a correction of like was it 8 8 n

10% 11% in the NASDAQ um 8% in the S&P

and we had buy signals you got to be

long but for me to say it's going to

it's going to last for a couple of years

into a major bull move I can't say that

at a point but the way to be positioned

clearly is to be positioned long no

question about it I'm going to get to

the how we deal with our our mechanical

models a little bit later. I just want

to tell you what. So for institutional

clients, we're short into the March 30

lows. We got we we we excuse me into the

um to the June July 29th low. We're long

100% long. We're not leveraged long and

we're we're watching to see whether the

market possibly going to set a

short-term top this week because we have

reasons to think that that there may be

many some of the guys may have been

exhaustive and maybe we'll we'll at

least test the lows. It's an outside

chance we'll break the lows, but that's

very really an outside chance that we

break the lows. That's I have to say

that's still a possibility. I mean,

maybe there's something out there that

that we don't recognize. You see, now

just a just a point to note, we made a

new all-time high on Friday in the S&P,

but only 21 stocks generated an an

all-time high that day, which is sort of

low end of the range of when the S&P had

an all-time high. I think you saw 16 new

highs on March 24th, uh, 2000. I think

it was March was March 10th, 2000, the

day of the peak in, you know, before the

dotcom bubble peak. Then you saw 16 new

highs in the S&P. Now you saw 21 new

highs, which is a very low reading on a

day that the S&P is at a new all-time

high, especially when the S&P the S&P uh

small uh unweight index just made an

all-time high a couple days earlier. Let

me show you this chart. This is this is

pretty fascinating. This is the S&P 500

equal weight index.

And you'll notice this didn't bottom on

this didn't bottom on July July 29th. It

bottomed July 23rd. Made a new alltime

um let me see it made new all time in

day high on August 5th

and it didn't this hasn't been in a you

know no correction. You know it really

was basically straight up since the

March lows.

>> Mhm.

>> So that's that's a uh a very positive

development. But you'd think you'd see

more new alltime highs in the S&P if the

S&P 1500 excuse me I'm sorry. If the SP

unweighted index is at a new alltime

high, you think you see more than 20 in

new high as the S&P is making a new

high. That did not happen. Let me just

check the on a closing basis. It uh it's

it's at a new alltime high um right now,

August 10th. If the S&P um equal

weighted would close right now, it'd be

at an all-time high.

>> Milton, I got a quick question for you.

So, you saw things to make you bullish

about the July 29th low. Yes. But you

don't you you have written how you you

haven't really seen a lot of buy signals

like firm buy signals and you said that

you don't see evidence of the action is

breakaway. So what what precisely are

you waiting to see before you'll see

these buy signals if if you see them

which I'm not saying

>> first of all theoretically we don't need

any new buy signals because the buy

signals that are generated in April

project out to a year. In other words we

gave you where the historical

projections go. So the only new buy

signals any know and we say what we saw

into the July 29th low was just a minor

correction. Let's play faith. The S&P

only declined four and a half% and it

bottomed in June. It didn't bottom in

July. So it's just a minor correction.

You which is a random event have a minor

correction within a bull move. So the

fact that we have all these signals in

April is enough of a reason to be

bullish here. However, with the fact

that the leading index, which was the

which was the um which was the NASDAQ

NDX 100, NASDAQ 100 as well as the

Philadelphia semiconductor, the fact

that they really declined sharply gives

us reason to be a little bit cautious.

You know, maybe something's different

this time. But again, I don't want to be

forced into a bearish posture.

>> Likely scenario was bullish. I don't

need any new buy signals. The the action

off the lows in July was very very

strong, but there's there's things

lacking. First is the divergences and I

when I tested the history of these

signals, they're not necessarily

bullish. I I tested what took place off

the July lows based on history and they

don't necessarily give you buy signals.

So

>> tell me about that. Tell me about

>> Well, I try to I'll try to show you.

>> Is this when you said that it's action

that looked like uh May 2000 or

something

>> here? Let me show you this one. This

took place on um on August 5th, 2026.

This is a recent signal. It's not in my

model. You'll see why in a minute. But

here's a recent signal to place on

August 5th. Okay.

What happened here is the NASDAQ 5day

gain was its greatest in a year. Earlier

we talked about 10day gains, right? Or

if the March lows the 10day gains were

the greatest in two years. This is a

NASDAQ 5day gain was greatest in one

year into August 5th.

>> The S&V 5day gain was the greatest in

one year into August 5th. NDX gained

over 8% over a fiveday period. And the

Philadelphia 7 gained 14% over five

days. You see? So let's see the history.

It signaled on um November 2nd 87. It

was at a corrective. It was at a

retracement rally high. The market

declined 12% to test the low. You see

there's not a reason, you know. So maybe

longterm is bullish, but no reason it

won't pull back. Signal on May 2nd,

1997. Very similar to us. This is a case

where it's very similar to our

situation. Let me show you. This

situation here was just after a minor

correction in the S&P similar to what we

had now. So in that that in that

instance it's very similar to what we

saw now. In this case the market gained

um 20% in 109 days. This is a double

signal May 2nd and May 5th 97. August

15th 1998

October again a major bull signal. But

here a signal in 2008 during the

financial crisis the SP declined another

24%.

So again, telling you that we called all

the signals that aren't perfect. Yeah.

>> One of the signals we tell our clients

to buy based on, but we put in our put

>> that signal happened during one of the

biggest bare markets and financial

crisis in history, which clearly we're

not in now. I mean, it could start

tomorrow, of course.

>> Well, guess what?

>> What?

>> Clearly, we're not in it now. But if you

read the headlines and you read what

other people are saying, not me, read,

they're talking about a major crisis in

in in private credit, which is still

underlying, you know, so people aren't

aware of it yet or even banks aren't

aware of it yet,

>> but it's quite possible that major

financial crisis said, I mean, I'm not

going to predict it. I don't think it's

happening, but you know, we're not in a

situation now where you can say there's

no financial crisis developing. We

haven't liqufied our economy. you know,

after a great depression, after a great

recession, you could say it's highly

unlikely that there'll be another

financial crisis taking place.

Everything has been liqufied. But now

the reality is there's besides margin

debt in the stock market, there's margin

all over the place. I mean, look how

many how many commercial real estate

buildings are being held up, you know,

uh just on margin on on debt with no

real equity, you see. So, I don't want

but what I say is the following. Had I

not had I not um done my work and and

and tracked every market bottom since

1957, I would not have known that on on

nove November 28th, 2008, the same

bullish stuff took place. Yet the market

went down another 24%. See, now that I

know it and now that I know I had

perfect singles, I would not act in the

single line. I said it to my clients.

This is a report we said to bullish

fiveday factors. I sent that on August

6. I tend to my clients. But despite the

generally favorable historical record of

these combined indicators, we do not

view this as a high probability tradable

signal. See, we were long, but I can't a

high probability signal. I just can't

because a high probability signal show

much better returns than this one. Even

though even though the median return

after the signal in the past was 37%

within a year.

>> I gotcha.

>> But you had you had pullbacks of 24% and

12% at 20. So you could take it as as a

bull signal and say Milton's out of his

mind. No,

>> but I don't think you're out of your

mind. Milton Milton, has have you have

you had any signals? Milton, have you

had any sell signals since the sell

signals you had in December that we

talked about last time you were on?

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We had we had these

signals in we had the the signs of a top

in June, which ultimately proved to be a

top in the semiconductor index and the

NASDAQ 100 and the NASDAQ, but it didn't

affect didn't really affect the broad

market, the S&P. And what we saw, yeah,

we showed you these um there was there

were cycle highs. There was also um

divergences. There were exhaustion gaps

into the highs. The stocks had had a

double double island reversal into its

high. So we saw that. But the buy signal

the the the the oversold panic selling.

It's July 29th offset that at least for

the short term, you know, maybe even for

the intermediate term, especially

considering I have buy seals in April

that's still in effect. I can't really

pound the table and say things. And

again, if someone's going to tell me

that the market's going to crash in the

next few months, I would say I I can't

prove him wrong. I I say give me the

evidence, but I can't prove him wrong. I

say it's too early. I don't have the

evidence. The evidence will come later

on if it's going to happen. But at this

point, I'd say anything is pos anything

on the negative side is possible. We're

a totally overleveraged economy. The

next move for the Fed is going to be

tightening. You you already see this the

two-year um bond is tightening. It's you

know, rates are at multi-year highs.

You're seeing the 50 the the 30-year

bond at the highest levels in in also

what is it in decades I think. So you're

seeing um um and you're seeing as you

know private credit is really uh

collapsing in a way. I mean this is just

a secret. Banks aren't talking about it

but it seems obvious.

>> Well to tell on private credit I think

that the peak of the private credit doom

narrative so far was probably in January

or February. A lot of private credit

firms have reported that their second

quarter and it's actually a little bit

of a an improvement. I'm not, you know,

I'm not not saying that that's super

predictive. But Milton, talking about

about the Fed, the two-year rate did

tighten uh be pricing in uh higher more

interest rate hikes from the Fed because

the price of oil went up and now we have

this new Fed chair who could be hawkish

and he says he's going to tame

inflation. But my read is actually he's

not that hawkish and I think the long

end of the bond yield, the 30-year, the

10-year is kind of sniffing that out.

What's your case there on on the Fed?

>> Well, first of all, I I I would I would

I I don't know how to define hawkish or

not hish. I think he in order to get

inflation down, you're going to have to

uh re in the money supply and and raise

rates somewhat. So, I I think he's going

to be forced to raise rates. Whether

it's hawkish or not, I don't know. I I

think he'll be forced to raise rates.

more likely he'll be forced to to do

quantitative tightening because he's

he's a monitorist and he realize that

inflation now oil oil and inflation have

zero correlation. It's a big mistake to

suggest that oil price have anything to

do with inflation.

Inflation is a monetary phenomena. If

oil prices go up and there's no money to

cover it, there's going to have to be a

decreased prices and other other asset

other things people buy. Just the way it

is. If I have $100 in my pocket and I

have to spend I used to spend $20 in oil

and now I'm spending $60 in oil. I will

have to spend less in other things. So

it's just a false thing to suggest that

oil prices have anything to do with

inflation. It's really a monetary policy

that has to do with inflation.

>> Yeah. You're you're talking about

long-term inflation.

So you're basically saying inflation is

not PCE or CPI what the Fed measures or

what the the BLS measures. So okay we we

can move on but just Yeah. Yeah. Let's

move on to that. If if everything else

being equal, if an oil shock causes the

price of oil to go up, something else

will have to go down. Now, maybe that's

that's that that's that's not

inflationary at all. Maybe what goes

down is the economy or other, you know,

other or wages or something. But unless

it's unless you accommodate higher

prices, always higher price, not

inflation. Okay, this is all theoretical

thing, but to me it seems pretty clear.

You could argue at least has very little

to do with picking stocks. So that's

fine. Anyway, okay. That now um yeah,

here's what I talked about. We spoke

about the divergences. We spoke about

this. That was my report on August 7th.

Okay, let's get to the next thing

because I want to share something pretty

fascinating. Okay,

>> I think we pretty much covered

everything that's rel relevant to the

current market, right?

>> In stocks. Yeah,

>> in stocks. Okay.

>> So, Milton, a lot of these very advanced

signals we've talking about, obviously

that's the work you do for your

institutional clients. You have a retail

product, Miltonberg Edge, that is far

far more simple. Tell us about that that

model as well as the the results that

you've kind of seen and the philosophy

behind it.

>> Yes. Okay. This is the story. As I said,

I've I've been in the market for quite a

number of years, you know, 50 years or

so or more. I've uh I I've spent my time

initially I was a pure fundamentalist

grad but eventually I spent my time

trying to analyze markets uh build

models on markets and I realized that

it's almost impossible to call a precise

top but we we're very very good in

calling precise bottoms or near near

precise bottoms okay within days of a

market low. So this

slide illustrates if somebody had

$10,000 to invest on March 21st, 1957

and he invested in the market. He never

got out at the top. He waited for the

market to decline 8% and then got out

and then waited for a buy from for my

models. That $10,000 would have grown to

1 billion152

million76,996.13