Why the July jobs report is a "mixed report," according to Cleveland's Fed.

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18 segments

0:00

I would view the that most recent report

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as a mixed report. We did have negative

0:03

payroll growth, negative 23,000 jobs. We

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had a headline unemployment rate that

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was 4.1% that actually dropped by 10

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basis points. You know, any one of those

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jobs numbers reports is very volatile,

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right? They move around. They're very

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noisy. And so I try to look at the

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average over some period of time. If you

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look over the last 3 months or the last

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12 months, we've had job growth of about

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20,000 25,000 somewhere in that zip

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code. And so it's not a big number. That

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may be around the break even number that

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we need to see. And I think that's what

0:30

we're hearing from that unemployment

0:31

rate at 4.1%.

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The most recent jobs report presented a mixed picture, with a negative payroll growth of 23,000 jobs, but a decrease in the headline unemployment rate to 4.1%. The speaker noted that individual jobs reports are volatile and noisy, making it better to consider the average over time. Over the last 3 to 12 months, job growth has consistently been around 20,000 to 25,000, a number that is not significant and may be close to the break-even point.