with with oil. So, basically, the the

thing that I'm pretty sure is going on

is you can you can short paper contracts

like WTI. And, you know, like it's very

similar to the precious metals market in

that, you know, like 97%

of contracts they're paper and they're

never executed for delivery, right? No

one ever actually asks for a delivery.

>> Hello, everyone, and welcome to another

edition of Triangle Investor Interviews.

I'm your host, Lucian Vâlcu, which and

before I announce my guest, just a quick

reminder of a disclaimer. This interview

and all my interviews are not a

recommendation to buy or sell any

shares, products, or services. Always do

your due diligence and consult with your

financial advisor.

Joining us next, a very interesting

guest, Gavin McCracken, a Canadian AI

PhD self-described head of commodities

macro, known for his sharp, data-driven,

and often sarcastic analysis of oil

markets, geopolitics, and undervalued

energy equities. Someone that I am

following for quite some time. Gavin,

thank you so much for joining me today.

>> Yeah, no problem. It's nice to be here.

>> Thank you so much.

Um,

oil, of course. You are a great follow

when it comes to oil, when it comes to

the especially Now, with all this

happening around Strait of Hormuz, Iran

war, I have a lot of questions for you,

but let's start maybe walk us through

your background. Uh, how is a AI PhD

student researcher ended up branding

himself head of commodities macro? And

what And what the paths look like from

early investing to the returns you claim

you have? You had I think 2,000, 3,000 %

over 5, 6 years. Tell me more about your

story.

>> Um yeah, so that's actually I think like

200 to 300,000 %. But uh so um

Uh I got I guess I was always into

investing and like I read a lot about

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger back

when I was in high school. Um but I I

didn't really manage my own account

beyond just buying Apple and Google in

like 2013.

And uh

basically what happened was I got back

from a trip to Cuba in December of 2020.

I got back in early January 2020 and I

got the most sick I'd ever been. Like

for like 15 days I had a fever.

And um

I started hearing about um

you know, this pandemic, COVID. Not not

a pandemic yet, right? Just these rumors

and I was like, "Oh I had that and

it kicked my ass."

So uh

I uh

I decided to go full cash. Like I sold

everything. And you know, a couple

months later I went all in on oil while

it was negative. So.

>> Sold everything like real estate or

what?

>> No, no, just my stock portfolio.

Which was just a handful of stuff.

Wasn't worth much money. Um

but that's that's when it started and

you know, that's of course the the

classic Warren Buffett buy when others

are fearful, right? So I bought mostly

Cenovus Energy, Suncor, and um

and Enbridge were my three.

>> That's a great story.

>> And so that's what got me into oil.

>> Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, what does head

of commodities macro mean in practice

for you? How you research, size

positions, and manage risk day-to-day?

>> Um for the most part I'd say that I'm

mostly like a geopolitical speculator.

Like back then too, right? I mean like

COVID is a huge geopolitical event,

right? Affected every country. Um the

main thing back then was I just knew the

vaccines would be announced and the

second they'd be announced, you know, of

course didn't know when it was going to

happen, but like of course as soon as

they announce you can expect oil to

double. And like it did, it went from 30

to 60 fairly quickly. Um,

and so of course all the stocks I just

mentioned, Enbridge, Suncor, and

Cenovus, they all they all went crazy,

right?

Um,

and then I ended up staying in oil

because so at that point I started

learning about OPEC and you know, and

and they kept, you know, cutting. They

weren't

willing to, you know, hike and for a

long time they kept cutting.

And uh,

you know, I started to predict to them

and be like, oh, what are they going to

announce? And and you know, I was right

every time.

Um, even when they started finally

hiking, I was like, I feel like they're

going to hike now. So, that's that's

when I started getting more comfortable

that I knew what I was doing.

>> Gavin, you've been very vocal that free

markets in oil and precious metals are

currently fake. Can you explain in plain

terms your model or your model for how

SPR releases plus paper futures can

suppress oil prices far beyond the

physical barrels involved?

>> Uh, yeah, for sure. Um, so as far as

precious metals go, I think that they're

trading fair right now.

Um, you know, there's there's a lot to

be said there. Won't go into it now, but

um,

with with oil, so basically the the

thing that I'm pretty sure is going on

is you can you can short paper contracts

like WTI.

And you know, like it's very similar to

the precious metals market and that, you

know, like 97 to 99% of contracts,

they're paper and they're never executed

for delivery, right? No one ever

actually asked for a delivery. And so

because of that, you know, if you short

them, it's not such a big deal if they

just keep rolling over, right? And so if

you have something like the Strategic

Petroleum Reserve and you know that only

about 1/30 of the time you might have to

actually deliver something.

Um

you can uh, like uh obviously you can

back

like you can just use probability, you

know, you could say short 30 contracts

for every one contract you have the

physical on hand to actually deliver,

right?

And so if on top of this you mix this

with timing, so you have a useful idiot

like Barack Ravid and you know, you're

going to leak him information and you

know he's going to publish and then you

just sit there waiting for the headline

and the second the headline drops, you

know, I I like I don't even think it's

trading algorithms. It's just planned.

It's like boom, dump, you know, 10

million barrels, right? And so this was

a pattern we all saw again and again and

again, right? And and also before the

headline would drop, I I actually don't

think it was insider trading. I think it

was part of the strategy.

Um a bunch of barrels would be dumped

just to take out the bid.

So you know, now as soon as the news

drops and some people panic and you dump

more barrels, there's nothing to catch

it, right? So you'd see these massive

sell-offs on on you know, headlines that

were repeated again and again like there

will be a deal tomorrow and you know,

this went on and on, right? We were

promised deals for like 50 days in a row

or something before we finally had a a

non-legally binding memorandum of

understanding.

So.

>> Very interesting.

Uh so Gavin, long story short, you're

earning money on

herd mentality and stupidity.

If I may call it.

Uh how

uh oil market and oil and silver market

as well. How manipulated are they? How

rigged are they in your opinion?

>> it's definitely impossible to know. Like

I think right now precious metals kind

of makes sense. Like I do think they're

going to go up long-term.

Um and there's tons of reasons for that.

Like the main one is the Strait of

Hormuz disruption, right? Um a ton of

countries are now very interested in

solar and replacing, you know, the fact

that they're reliant on this strait that

20% of the world's energy was was

flowing through, right? So, there's

there's a lot of countries buying solar,

that that's future sulfur demand, right?

Um

and as far as like oil goes, like

there's no way for us to know how

manipulated it is. It's just like kind

of insane that if you you know, if you

bought oil when this started, the day it

started, you're only up like 25% or

something. I guess there have been

backwardations, so you probably would

have paid by the the roll yield in the

curve every time it rolls to the next

month. But it's still like

it's insane that if you took the bet

that for 6 months now

oil would be disrupted, you've barely

made money and it's like, you know, it

this is the biggest oil supply shock in

history by far, you know?

Um

and you know, of course we know things

like OPEC's exports are definitely down

by at least 4.5 million barrels. So,

like we know supply's shut in, we know

there's no way supply equals demand

right now, but we get consistent

headline intervention. You know, we

can't go a week without like, you know,

what was it? This Monday, the Pakistanis

were like, yeah, there's going to be a

deal within 24 hours. Well, what about

now, Thursday?

There we go, right? Like it's just it's

it's like all the time. So, everyone's

terrified to open a position. And like

even I am now, like, you know, like I

have buying power available, I could buy

more and I'm just like, I'm going to

wait and see if there's some kind of

Trump taco, you know?

Um

cuz like I'd rather buy, you know, 75,

but

you know, but also this week that

Pakistani headline didn't do as much as

it did before, right? So,

we have to wait and see.

>> Definitely. Uh we have a lot of physical

constraints here. Uh you mentioned some.

What specific signals would tell you

that the suppression phase is ending?

What signals would

alarm

>> I don't know. Like I don't think we're

going to be in a situation where anyone

gets margin called and we see oil

skyrocket? Like

maybe, but it would require something

insane like Libya to go 100% offline and

it to be like really bad unrest, you

know?

Um like there'd have to be

the expectation that Libya's gone

offline and it's not coming back for,

you know, 2 to 3 months or something,

right? Like And like even then, I don't

know. People at this point they're

they're convinced that strategic

petroleum reserves will just keep being

released and they'll manage to plug the

gap, right? So

it's really hard to know what's going

on, right? Like like and and also the

the thing I think has made this the

hardest is everyone's insider trading

it. So like I followed this whole thing,

you know, like every headline, every

tanker that's been hit, every refinery

that's blown up or caught fire.

And like

also all the headlines related to deals,

right? And um

the story just doesn't add up, you know?

Like if you've actually followed all the

headlines, like it's very obvious that

there's been a lot of lying.

And the only thing at this point that

makes sense is people are saying things

to try and make money, you know? Like

like why would the Pakistani say we're

24 hours away from a deal? And like

their actual prime minister said that,

right? So

like it's like I I got to believe at

this point they shorted oil and they

tried to make some money off it, you

know? Or something.

>> agree more because the story doesn't add

up and I agree totally. If we were in

the '80s, I presume with this

geopolitical show, the oil would be

250 bucks. Would you agree with that?

>> Um yeah, probably. Although there there

were less, you know, buffers back then,

too. Like China's hauling ass, right? Um

like they they built this at least, you

know, 1.3, 1.4 billion or billion barrel

reserve.

Um

and that's that's really what's doing

everything, right? It's like the Chinese

cut. And and that's the thing I find the

most interesting because with with Trump

always being like oh I'm going to tariff

China and stuff, you'd think it would be

in their interest to make Trump lose the

midterms, right? Cuz if Trump like loses

House and Senate uh or Congress, he he

will definitely be impeached, right? If

the Democrats get 100% control, he's

he's done. So,

it's interesting that China's doing what

they're doing cuz they could just snap

their fingers and impeach him, right?

Like they're in power right now. Like

they could decide that they're going to

unwind all the cuts they've done and

actually rebuild all of the storage they

released and suddenly add 10 million

barrels a day of demand, right? So, they

could take us to all-time high oil

demand. They could buy every single

tanker

um cuz they have the space and storage

for it now. So, you know, something like

that, we would see $250 oil, you know,

the next day.

But like will that happen? I don't know.

I I don't know what China's thinking

here. Like again, you'd think because

Trump has been very unfriendly to China

that China would him out. I don't know.

Maybe also Trump is weakening America in

ways that China wants to see, right?

Like it gets hard, you know? There's so

many angles that could be played here.

So.

Which point?

>> Uh can you detail your current

oil-related positions? Which names do

you have in the portfolio? I know that

you are pretty big on Obsidian Energy

and some other names. Tell me more.

>> Yeah, so the first thing is I have Brent

oil calls. They're like deep out of the

money.

And the reason for that is if Trump does

something like ban, you know,

hydrocarbon exports from America, like

Brent oil is going to jump to like 500

or something, right? Like like Europe is

being subsidized right now by America's

exports. So, if America turns off the

exports, Europe's cooked. So, that's

that that would be, you know, a risk for

like Obsidian. Maybe we'd struggle. Um

any Canadian stuff would probably

struggle, right? Cuz WTI is going to

crash if this happens, at least

initially. So, to cover myself against a

margin call, I have quite a few calls on

on Brent oil.

Um and then after that, so the the

companies I like are are the first one

Suncor, and that's for this exact same

reason. Um

Suncor is fully integrated, you know,

they they pump the oil out of the ground

and they refine it. So, they also do

this in Canada. So, then they sell a lot

of these refined products in Canada

um and supply most of Canada. So,

if Trump does do a hydrocarbon export

ban, you know, really that's actually

going to skyrocket the cost of gasoline

and diesel in Canada, cuz we barely

refine our own stuff.

So, for the most part, I'd see a company

like Suncor being extremely posed for

massive amounts of profit in this

situation.

Um

and so that's another, you know, one of

my hedges against this. And then and

then other than that, my

my three favorites are Obsidian Energy,

Journey Energy, and uh Rock Resources.

So, Obsidian Energy is really just

they're they're, in my opinion, the

highest torque to high oil prices. And

that's because they have a $2 billion

tax pool. So, that means their next $2

billion of sales they're not going to

pay any tax.

Um

and that's because, you know, a long

time ago the company was called Penn

West and a whole bunch of things went

wrong, and you know, but there's new

management now and and things look good,

you know? They're they're drilling new

wells, they're hitting

everything you want to see. So, it does

seem like a new company, but they still

have this this tax pool that protects

them.

And so, I also like them because if

Canada decides to go the more communist

route and, you know, throw some windfall

taxes on, those tax pools are going to

help, right? Like, they could do a 100%

tax, they still are going to be able to

make more money than the current market

cap, cuz that that tax pool is going to

protect them, right? So, in in

absolutely insane cases, of course,

we're not going to get a 100% tax, but

so, I like that.

Journey Energy, same thing. They they

have a similarly large tax pool. Um I

think it's still bigger than the market

cap, not not by as much as Obsidian.

Um and then I like some things Journey

have done. So, like they've they've

recently bought brought a power plant

online, and it's good because in

Alberta, there's too much natural gas,

so it's always worthless.

Um and so now that they have a power

plant, they're

you know, able to sell, you know, sell

natural gas for a much higher premium

than they would otherwise. So, that's

good.

And um

there's also, I mean, right now it it's

looking very obvious that Journey is

going to be taken over by Spartan. Of

course, that might not happen, but

uh we know from Spartan's last earnings

that they bought a company.

They didn't say which one,

um

but like it's got to be Journey. Journey

is their their joint venture partner,

right? Their JV partner.

So,

and uh we saw also that AIMCo, which is

like this Alberta investment company,

they they sold their shares of Journey.

So, you know, the guess is they sold

them to Spartan, right?

And so that would give Spartan 10%

ownership, and I think AIMCo still holds

another 10%. So, you know, you can guess

Spartan's right under the filing. So,

they'd have to file, you know, their

early warning

uh takeover,

you know, paperwork if uh if they

accumulate over 10%, and AIMCo has sold

like 9.88% or something. So, it's like

just under, but they still hold 10%. So,

you know, Spartan definitely would have

a deal for 10% of the shares, you know,

or at least the voting power of 20%

total.

Um and so now we're waiting to see what

happens, but just last night,

it was released that uh Journey divested

more of their non-core assets.

And it was a good good sale. They got

rid of a lot of their decommissioning

liabilities, like called ARO, but uh

um yeah, it was it was a good price.

It's good to see, and like today I think

the stock's up 5 or 6 percent. I haven't

checked recently, but uh uh

it makes sense cuz everyone is seeing

this and everyone's thinking the same

thing, which is there's got to be a

takeover soon because, you know, they're

setting up for it. They're cleaning up

the balance sheet, cleaning up the

company's profile, and Spartan also

recently bought shares, so

you know, it makes sense to speculate on

this.

>> is

maybe the factor for you the dividend,

the share buybacks?

>> Yeah, they also both have uh like normal

course issuer bids. Um Obsidian is

actively using theirs. I don't think

that Journey is.

Um for me, I bought both of them just

because they're undervalued, you know,

with like $75 WTI, I would be

expecting to make money on both, like a

40 to 50%. And you know, when this all

started, my expectation was it would

take at least 6 months, and you know,

we're there now.

Um

and after 6 months of supply disruption,

I I wrote that that I think $80 WTI will

be the floor. That's my floor price

because this whole thing has happened,

and that if this keeps on going, I'll

start slowly shifting that floor price

up. Of course, there's noise and there's

the ability for governments to

manipulate it, but

um

>> noise

>> Yeah, so so basically like with a floor

price of $80 American oil,

uh Obsidian Rock and Journey are all set

to make a pile of money.

And so that that last stock, Rock

Resources, I actually like it the most

because it's got in my opinion the best

risk reward. Um and that's cuz they're

they're like half of their market cap in

net cash. I think they're about 30

million in cash plus liquid assets. And

I think that's cuz the market's been

missing that they own like 17 or 18% of

a lithium miner.

Um that's actually how I found them. I

was looking at that lithium miner, uh

and and I was looking at who owned it,

and I saw Rock Resources, and I

remembered some people had told me to

look into Rock Resources. I was like,

"Oh, I should probably do that." And

then

I saw this, so the the fact that

they're, you know, 50% net cash versus

the market cap, it it's downside

protection, right? Like, you can't

really drop more than 50%, but on top of

that, they have producing wells. So,

they're producing about 3,000 barrels of

oil equivalent a day, and they're

growing that. They have a really

aggressive CapEx plan for this year. I

mean, they want to drill drill eight

eight more wells just this summer.

And uh their well economics are amazing

with like, I think $70 WTI, it's like uh

a four or five-month payback or

something. It might might be six months.

Um they have a slide on it in their

presentation. But yeah, so so those are

my three.

And uh

Yeah, for the most

>> you you did a quite a good due diligence

on those names.

>> Yeah, yeah. Definitely went deep in all

three. Um

Minera.

>> Yeah. Uh

okay.

Uh

We mentioned paper market suppression by

silver by precious metals as well. Are

you positioned accordingly to gold and

silver

um

stocks? I mean, maybe producers,

developers, exploration stories. How are

you playing gold and silver?

>> Um I'm looking for cheap producers in

both. So, I still have Minera Alamos,

which everyone knows I own, and

Patagonia Gold, which everyone knows I

own. Um and I'm just kind of waiting.

Cuz like, I don't know. Like, if there's

a huge liquidity crunch because of the

straight of Hormuz crisis,

um

like, I can't see gold and silver really

breaking out in at least in the near

term. Of course, long term, like, the

longer this thing goes, the the higher

gold and silver will go because, you

know, there's more inflation coming.

Like, it's costing an enormous amount of

money, and that money's American and in

US dollars, right? So, the US government

debt will grow. The rest of this is easy

to figure out. At least over a long

enough time span.

Um

So

Yeah, for the most part I don't really

see gold or silver exploding until the

Strait of Hormuz is resolved. And like

if it truly was resolved, like it that's

where I'd be pivoting into would be back

into cheap gold producers and cheap

silver producers.

And the reason is like that those miners

have been absolutely smashed, you know?

Like Like I there's so many that are

just down like 60% from the highs,

right?

>> Yeah.

>> So like, you know, to get back up 60%

that's like 130% or something. So

they're they're absolutely worth buying

down here. It's just a matter of timing,

right? It's like

when do you want to buy them?

And they're definitely still going to

make good earnings with the current

prices, but I I don't know if the market

will appreciate them if overall, you

know, gold and silver are are, you know,

in a bear market, which the headlines

will read, you know?

So

Yeah. But

Yeah. Does that

>> apply to uranium as well? As I remember

you were a uranium bull. So how are you

playing uranium today?

>> Yeah, so uranium I am still watching. I

I want to jump in, but I'm waiting to

see if something happens like spy

crashes, right? Like there there is

obviously, you know, like I said, like

Libya could go offline or who knows on

it honestly like Venezuela could have

tons of unrest and go offline. Like I

don't think that oil is, you know,

risk-free. Like there there's lots of

risk that have happened historically.

Like Libya tends to, you know, go

offline at the worst of times and send

oil up, you know, 20 bucks overnight. Of

course, when the Strait of Hormuz is

currently closed, Libya going offline is

an absolute disaster, right? Um

So there are risks that are, you know,

out there and

they could happen and if they happen spy

would crash, right? And all the uranium

ETFs correlate so much with spy, right?

Like if spy is red, you almost never see

uranium green.

So,

that would be when I buy. I'm waiting

for this huge crash where spy, you know,

stupidly tanks uranium and maybe with

luck I can buy spy at like 18, 19%

discount, something like this, you know.

Um cuz like it it's it's happened

before, you know. So,

>> uh

That's that's where That's how I'm

looking at uranium cuz like long term,

you know, there's a supply deficit there

still and it's not fixed, right? So,

yeah. I'm I'm definitely thinking about

it. It's just again, it's a matter of

timing and and like I said in in a

Brandon Baylor interview shortly after

this all started, like every trade right

now in my opinion is straight up FOMO.

Like you can't find me a stock where

it's not straight up FOMO cuz like

because of like I said, you know, like

Ukraine could blow up a a Russian

pipeline tomorrow that's exporting oil

to China and China might be like, "Okay,

We got to start buying again and

start, you know, buying tankers." Like

we don't know.

Right? There's so many things that could

happen right now. The world's in the

most unstable position it's probably

been in my entire life.

Um

>> Uh definitely agreed on this. Uh but

that said, are you holding cash? And how

much cash do you hold? Are you waiting

for a liquidity crisis of any form where

you could deploy much more cash and buy

cheap? For example, you mentioned

uranium. However, other asset classes as

well.

>> I should be holding cash, but I'm not.

I'm I'm all in, you know, oil and and

gold basically right now with with

slight exposure to silver. Um

And and you know, that's because just

like I don't believe that the Iranians

are going to let Trump off easy. And so

far that belief has been correct, right?

Like and and I'm I'm super pissed about

it cuz, you know, I like so many people

capitulated on the trade. So many people

said, you know, it'll be closed at most

a couple weeks, like Trump himself. And

you know, getting it right and not

having hit like a 5x by now is annoying,

you know? Um

so I'm still waiting cuz just I I don't

see this resolving, you know? Like

there's always a chance. Like, you know,

there's there's people speculating

officials are being bribed, you know,

like United Air Air of Emirates just

sent uh

some planes back and forth to Iran and

people are like, "Oh, maybe they were

carrying gold or cash." But

um

you know, like I I do think that oil

will continue to leak out of the Strait

of Hormuz,

but I don't think it's going to get to a

point where supply equals demand.

Mhm. So, so I'm I'm waiting and um

like I said, there's there's all these

other risks where if any one of them

goes off, you know, there's a huge

payday.

And the market is absolutely not pricing

those risks, right? Like like Ukraine's

already disrupted Russian exports many

times. We're in this crazy situation

right now where Russia's importing, you

know, gasoline and diesel, right? Their

refineries are up.

So, uh

yeah, well, I I I don't know. Like but I

I I know I'm overexposed. Like I hate it

um

because, you know, like Trump Trump does

tweet things that aren't true.

And uh oil crashes on on these things.

So,

I should have cash. It would be

responsible to have cash.

>> Yeah, definitely some cash would be

prudent to have. Uh Gavin, how does your

AI research background inform or not

inform your commodities work? I mean, in

a pattern recognition modeling

uncertainty, how do you apply it or

>> Um so, I I had my own model that's like

a a time series

neural network and and sometimes I use

that for for trading, but uh

for the most part it doesn't. Like,

really I'm I I've always just gone long

fundamentals and been right.

So,

um

yeah, like, you know, I I I don't do

much trading.

Um

It's really for me just like I don't

even look at charts most of the time.

So, like there are a lot of days I don't

even check the the the tickers that I

own.

Um currently that's not so true because

I'm mostly, you know, trying to see if

there's a new Truth Social and I have to

panic or a new Axios article, but um

you know.

So, AI I mean, really like like I'm a

I'm a computer scientist and like I I I

honestly love that more than anything

else. Like I make tons of money in the

market, but, you know, my my true love

in life or the thing I like to do with

my time is work on computer science.

And so, AI is a

it of course right now it's a super

major part of that and, you know,

something I have fun with. And I love

the research I do there, too, so.

>> Is it the bubble?

AI

>> Um

probably not yet. I think that this is

going to go much bigger.

Um

I like I actually just bought some

shares of Cloudflare cuz I think that

they're well posed to be

um one of the future infrastructure

players as far as agents are concerned

and how they access the internet.

Um

but

uh

yeah, my my like I I don't have really

any exposure other than Cloudflare and

that's a small position.

Um

but

uh yeah, I mean, it's really hard to say

if it's a bubble or not. Like there

there are scientific results that could

probably tank a lot of stocks.

Um

you know, like like huge efficiency

improvements that could happen, right?

Where suddenly, you know, you don't need

as many GPUs, except there's also uh

what's the name? Is it Jevons paradox?

You know what I'm talking about? It's

the paradox where uh

if something becomes more efficient,

people can just start using it more and

so, you'd think it would, you know,

lower GPU demand, but just increases it,

right?

Um

But yeah, and I mean, even for myself,

so like I've been starting to look at

the memory stocks, um which have dipped

a lot lately from their highs, and

that's because really the rate-limiting

thing is right now memory. And so like I

I want to build my own mini like 8 kW

data center,

um and part of that is just I don't want

people spying on what I'm talking to the

the large language model about, and

Kimmy was just released, uh which is

like a 2.8 trillion parameter model that

was trained in China, and it's really

good, so it would be nice to be able to

run that locally.

Um

but, you know, to do that I have to drop

like 3 to 4 million US dollars because,

you know, I need to buy really what I'm

paying for is memory.

So.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah.

Um

so it's would be And And so that's

that's part of it, too. Like I I think

that local LLMs are really going to go

up in

um demand.

And because like I'm not the only

person. I'm certainly not the only

person out here that doesn't want, you

know, everyone stealing my data when I

talk to the LLM, especially if it's

sensitive data, right? It could be, you

know, proprietary code or um you know,

intellectual property that no one knows

I have, and I just don't want people to

you know, know even what I'm thinking

about sometimes. Like sometimes there's

a lot of value in a question, right?

Like uh famous physicist, I forget which

one, but said something like the I was

criticizing the education system and

saying that it really only teaches you

how to solve problems, but the most

important part is to know which

questions to ask, right?

>> Exactly. Exactly.

>> And so that's also like when people are

talking about artificial general

intelligence, like AGI or or

superintelligence,

um really, you know, these models, they

have no idea what questions to ask.

But they're really good at solving

problems.

So, you know, like

they're really replacing the current

university system. Like I have no idea

where academia is going.

You know, obviously this

knowing what questions to ask is

important and and that's probably where

professors will be mostly

situated in the future.

Um but yeah, I I don't think the

bubble's going to pop yet. It's It's got

It's got so much fuel and the the

scientific results are coming so fast.

The improvements are coming fast, so the

capital is going to flow, you know,

especially when you have CEOs promising

superintelligence by 6 months, right?

Which you have. That's Anthropic CEO has

been saying that for like 3 years now.

So.

>> That's a fair view. Uh Gavin, how can

people reach out to you?

>> Um I'm Twitter at If you comment or send

me a message, I usually reply and

there's also my Substack, so.

>> What's What's the Substack?

>> Uh Demystifying Life.

>> Okay.

>> that's where I I I write about

biochemistry and geopolitics and stocks,

so.

>> Go Go and follow Gavin on X and Substack

and subscribe. Gavin, thank you so much

for joining me.

I really [snorts]

enjoyed your about with your insights

about oil, AI, precious metals, uranium.

Thank you so much.

>> Yeah, thanks for having me.