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Bessent wants the Fed to ease. Warsh just said no.

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Bessent wants the Fed to ease. Warsh just said no.

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372 segments

0:00

Last week, Scott Bent gave markets a

0:02

reason to believe the government would

0:03

defend the bond market and Bitcoin flew.

0:06

But today, Kevin Worsh reminded

0:08

investors that the Fed is still actively

0:11

fighting inflation. That tension matters

0:14

enormously for Bitcoin. I'm going to

0:17

tell you why and cover all the other

0:18

news driving crypto markets here on the

0:20

Daily Wolf. Let's go.

0:28

What is up everybody? Welcome to the

0:30

Daily Wolf on Yahoo Finance. I am your

0:33

host, Scott Melker, also known as the

0:36

Wolf of All Streets. Today is a big day.

0:42

Everybody was holding their breath,

0:43

awaiting the words of Kevin Worsh in

0:46

Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Now, I joked

0:48

earlier that uh we should actually be

0:50

looking for what he doesn't say and not

0:52

what he does say because we all know

0:54

that Kevin Wars is being purposely

0:56

tight- lipped, not trying to give very

0:58

much information, eliminating forward

1:01

guidance entirely, and trying basically

1:04

to be as opaque as humanly possible.

1:08

That's his new strategy. But he did come

1:11

out rather hawkish and markets probably

1:15

are going to take some time to absorb

1:17

that. And as I said in the intro, we now

1:19

have this strange push and pull between

1:21

the Treasury and the Fed. Many were

1:23

looking for the Treasury and Fed to work

1:26

together. People view Kevin Worsh as

1:28

Bent's guy. Both Bent and Kevin Worsh

1:31

were students of Drunken Miller and

1:34

Trump probably put them in place so that

1:36

they would work together to create the

1:39

ideal financial conditions. But so far

1:42

that is not exactly what's happening. So

1:44

you all remember that last week on

1:46

August 19th, the Treasury announced that

1:48

it would at least double its buybacks of

1:50

older 10 to 30year government bonds. The

1:53

maximum increase from 2 billion to 4

1:55

billion per operation beginning on

1:58

September 9th. Now, the Treasury

2:00

described this as liquidity support for

2:03

older bonds that trade less efficiently.

2:05

As I've told you, it's not quantitative

2:08

easing because it's not money printing

2:09

to do it. And it's not yield curve

2:11

control because there's not a specific

2:14

number that they're going to defend. But

2:16

either way, it was Bent coming in and

2:18

saying that the government has a level

2:22

of yields on long-term bonds that is not

2:25

acceptable and that they're willing to

2:27

do something about it. that sent Bitcoin

2:30

flying because long-term yields

2:32

determine mortgage rates, corporate

2:34

borrowing costs, asset valuations, and

2:36

of course, the government's own interest

2:38

bill. We know that the national debt is

2:40

now over $40 trillion. And that interest

2:43

bill is the largest line item on the

2:46

balance sheet. So, Bitcoin flew because

2:48

Bitcoin is supposed to fly when we

2:51

realize that fiscal and monetary policy

2:54

are irresponsible, as is our government.

2:57

So what we had today was an expectation

3:01

that Worsh would follow in his buddy

3:04

Besense path. So there was a lot of

3:06

articles saying Bitcoin will or won't go

3:08

up based on this and this is the most

3:10

important comments ever from a Fed chair

3:12

for Bitcoin. I don't agree with any of

3:14

that, but I can understand the reason

3:16

they were saying so because there were

3:17

basically two paths that Worsh could

3:19

take. Worsh could either say, "Yes,

3:23

we're going to ease. We're going to

3:24

lower interest rates. We are going to

3:27

support the operations here of the

3:28

Treasury. We want to refinance the debt

3:31

lower." Of course, none of these are the

3:33

Fed's business. Those are Treasury

3:35

problems. Or he could come in hawkish

3:37

and say, "We have a strong economy and

3:38

inflation is still a problem." He

3:40

basically did the latter. So, he says

3:42

the economy appeared to have

3:44

strengthened. He pointed out that

3:46

business business investment is growing

3:48

at its fastest pace since 2021 driven

3:51

heavily by AI and S&P profits have ri

3:54

risen more than 20% over the past year.

3:58

Credit spreads remain tight. Lending

4:00

standards are relatively e easy and war

4:03

said and I quote he would be quote

4:05

hardpressed to describe financial

4:07

conditions as broadly restricted. He als

4:10

rest restrictive. He also pointed out

4:11

that labor markets remain stable and

4:14

consistent with full employment

4:17

and then hinted that this allows the Fed

4:20

to concentrate on inflation with annual

4:23

PC at 3.7 month annualized PCE at 4.1%

4:27

more than half of the PCA basket has

4:29

increased by over 3% during the last

4:33

year. He said, this is where it's hawk

4:36

is. He said, recent improvements have

4:37

not meaningfully challenged the

4:39

underlying inflation trend and said the

4:42

2% target is quote firm and fixed. His

4:46

conclusion was that the Fed must see

4:48

inflation moving clearly and

4:50

sufficiently towards 2% otherwise it

4:53

still has work to do. Of course, he then

4:54

said he has no crystal ball. There'll be

4:56

no more forward guidance, all these

4:58

things. But he, this was his final

5:00

quote. I stand here today committed to a

5:03

discipline, not to a decision. So he was

5:06

non-committal. So it doesn't close the

5:08

door entirely. But right now, we have

5:11

Bessant and War addressing different

5:13

parts of the same problem. Right. Uh

5:15

Treasury has long-term borrowing costs

5:17

that cannot be allowed to destabilize

5:20

the financial system, but the Fed has

5:21

persistent inflation cannot be allowed

5:23

to destabilize the dollar or inflation

5:26

expectations. So he came in very

5:29

hawkish. He didn't say he's going to

5:30

raise rates. I don't think he will. But

5:32

he certainly indicated that there's no

5:34

reason to believe that they would cut

5:35

into an economy right now. And that is

5:38

not what Bent wants. Right? Basent wants

5:41

the Fed to make his job easier by

5:44

cutting. So very clearly Bitcoin's rally

5:47

that we had was not based on the idea

5:49

that the Fed would turn dovish. Right?

5:50

Right? It was a bet that America's debt

5:52

burden will eventually force policy

5:54

makers to control yields and tolerate

5:56

more inflation. Right? Bitcoin goes up

5:58

when the government is irresponsible and

6:00

Worsh really challenged that bet today

6:03

uh without destroying it. So we know

6:05

that Treasury is already demonstrating a

6:07

willingness to intervene and Worsh well

6:11

he really has not. So the question for

6:12

Bitcoin moving forward is which one of

6:14

those wins? Where does that tension play

6:16

out? And does Worsh eventually

6:17

capitulate do what Trump and BMP want

6:20

and cut rates? Really interesting

6:23

financial environment right now. I think

6:27

it's clear that if he's not going to do

6:29

what Trump and Bent want him to do that

6:31

we will remain in a fiscally dominated

6:33

environment where the actions of the

6:36

Treasury will be most prominent. So Wars

6:41

obviously made AI central to his

6:43

economic outlook talking about it and

6:44

one former Bitcoin miner just shows us

6:47

exactly what that transformation to an

6:50

AIdriven world looks like. Here you go.

6:54

Iron shares fall 8% as costly AI

6:57

transition weighs on earnings. Weakening

6:59

profitability overshadowed a major

7:01

milestone in Iron's transformation into

7:03

an AI cloud provider. So I've told this

7:06

story over and over and again. It

7:08

started with iron. Bitcoin miners are

7:11

becoming AI data centers. It's more

7:13

profitable for them to become AI data

7:15

centers. They're already set up to do

7:17

it. And Bitcoin mining right now is not

7:19

profitable at all. It's a perfect storm

7:21

for them to convert their business and

7:23

make a lot more money. So listen, at the

7:25

top line, this looked really good.

7:26

Iron's AI cloud revenue more than

7:28

doubled during the quarter to 70.5

7:30

million. Their Bitcoin mining revenue is

7:33

66.7.

7:35

So AI now generates 51.4%

7:38

of Iron's quarterly revenue. The first

7:39

time that we've seen a tilt in the

7:41

direction of AI, and we know that trend

7:43

will continue until Bitcoin mining uh

7:46

becomes a rounding error. This is very

7:50

clear evidence yet that iron and the

7:52

other miners I've told you about are

7:54

exactly what I've said, which is AI data

7:56

centers that may mine some Bitcoin when

7:59

it makes sense. So this seems like good

8:01

news for Iron, right? So why is the

8:03

stock down? While total quarterly

8:04

revenue fell 5% sequentially to 137.2

8:08

million adjusted EBA dropped 68% and

8:12

they recorded a 684

8:15

84 million net loss. Why? Because it's

8:19

really expensive to become an AI data

8:21

center and make that transition. Now

8:23

that will all clear out eventually. But

8:26

it should be clear that as much of it

8:28

see as it seems like this is an obvious

8:29

and easy pivot for these companies to

8:31

make, it is not. It's going to be

8:33

expensive and it's going to be

8:36

difficult. Either way though, we can

8:38

stop viewing Bitcoin miners as Bitcoin

8:40

miners. It's a misnomer. It's not the

8:42

case. They are AI data centers that will

8:45

likely mine some Bitcoin. And now, while

8:47

these cryptonative companies are

8:48

attempting to become AI companies,

8:51

traditional financial institutions

8:53

continue moving in the opposite

8:54

direction, deeper into crypto. And I'm

8:57

here for it.

8:59

Charles Schwab adds Salana avalanche

9:02

chain link to crypto platform. This is

9:05

native Salana avalanche and chain link

9:08

not ETF or some kind of wrapped

9:10

institutional exposure. This joins the

9:14

announcement that we had before that

9:16

they were offering Bitcoin and Ethereum

9:19

spot trading. Now to be clear, you

9:21

cannot transfer these assets on and off,

9:23

but you can buy and hold the spot assets

9:26

on Charles Schwab's platform. Chucky

9:31

Chuck Schwab,

9:32

this is going to happen in the coming

9:34

months. And

9:37

once again, uh the fees here will be 75

9:39

basis points like they are with Bitcoin

9:41

and Ethereum. So just to like put in

9:44

perspective how big this is, right?

9:46

doesn't mean that all these people are

9:47

going to buy these three very random

9:50

assets that they've added, but Schwab

9:52

oversees more than $12 trillion in

9:55

client assets with approximately 39

9:58

million active brokerage accounts. So

10:03

joining Bitcoin and Ethereum is not the

10:04

big story for Salana, Avalanche, and

10:06

Chain Link here. The big story is it

10:08

sits alongside customers, stocks, bonds,

10:12

ETFs, and cash. This makes a crypto

10:16

allocation far easier for investors who

10:18

in the past would have had to go open an

10:20

OKX or a Coinbase account to get

10:22

exposure. So people are asking why these

10:24

three. I mean Salana obviously is the

10:26

clearest large gap next to Ethereum.

10:29

They said that chain link is an

10:30

infrastructure connecting blockchains

10:32

with prices, financial data and

10:33

tokenized assets. Avalanche is a bet on

10:35

institutional networks and customizable

10:37

blockchain infrastructure. Schwabs are

10:40

take effectively taking three

10:41

established infrastructure plays rather

10:44

than offering hundreds of speculative

10:47

tokens. Eventually, this is going to be

10:50

everything I would imagine. Obviously,

10:53

not the case yet, but it is a slow roll

10:55

out that we're seeing from multiple

10:57

platforms, right? We obviously reported

10:59

on the fact that Morgan Stanley via

11:01

Erade had opened the doors to their 9

11:03

million customers to gain spot exposure

11:07

exposure to crypto assets as well. So,

11:10

as I've told you before, we have the

11:12

traditional brokerages and institutions

11:15

on one side, the crypto natives on the

11:17

other side, and they're all converging

11:19

to offer everything to everyone. And

11:21

it's going to be a very interesting

11:22

battle to see who wins. Now, to me, this

11:26

isn't really Charles Schwab trying to

11:28

gain new customers.

11:30

This is Charles Schwab trying not to

11:32

lose customers who want exposure to

11:34

these assets to other platforms. If you

11:37

leave Charles Schwab as a customer or

11:40

take 20% of your assets and go to OKX

11:43

and buy Bitcoin, that money never comes

11:46

back, right? Even if you go buy Bitcoin

11:48

right now, you can't send that Bitcoin

11:50

back to Charles Schwab. So, to me, this

11:52

is protection. They're making sure that

11:54

they offer the biggest most popular

11:56

assets in their view and that the

11:59

customers who want it can at least gain

12:01

some exposure there without seeing

12:03

capital flight. I think it's really

12:05

really interesting time right now in the

12:07

industry and we're going to uh see only

12:11

more of this moving into the future.

12:15

The next story is a really interesting

12:16

one. Kraken users briefly locked out

12:19

after a flood of sanctioned crypto

12:21

transactions. The activity appearing to

12:23

spread sanctioned funds to trigger

12:24

account restrictions occurred between

12:26

August 17th and August 24th. So, Kraken

12:29

basically received roughly 12,000 lowv

12:32

value crypto transfers in that oneweek

12:34

period. The transactions were between,

12:37

you know, a few cents and up to maybe

12:39

just a few dollars and they came from

12:41

wallets that Arkham Intelligence had

12:44

stated belong to HTX exchange. Now ATX

12:48

HTX is subject to UK sanctions and

12:52

European transaction ban over alleged

12:54

connections to Russian linked payment

12:57

network. So HTX themselves has disputed

13:00

this has anything to do with them that

13:01

the wallets are inappropriately

13:03

attributed. That's not the story. That's

13:06

what happened here. They are sanctioned

13:07

wallets regardless of where they're

13:08

coming from. So why would somebody do

13:10

this? Basically public blockchains allow

13:13

anyone to send funds to any valid

13:16

address. So a customer does not actually

13:18

have to approve to accept these

13:19

addresses. So by sending dust, as they

13:23

call this, from sanctioned wallets, you

13:26

can basically wildly disrupt an exchange

13:29

and make things very, very difficult for

13:31

the individuals you're sending to

13:32

because they're getting a transaction

13:34

from a sanctioned wallet, which caused

13:37

Kraken to obviously have to freeze very

13:39

temporarily the assets of some

13:42

legitimate customers that were doing

13:44

absolutely no nothing wrong. Now they

13:46

restored this quickly but what they did

13:48

here you know they identify exchange

13:50

link customer deposit addresses and then

13:52

send them all a little bit and then

13:54

compliance freezes it. So this becomes a

13:56

very very cheap attack vector these

13:59

hackers to cause mayhem. Crazy story.

14:01

And one very final story how not to

14:03

invest. We have GTA 6 leaker cashes out

14:06

of his own memecoin hours before

14:08

Rockstar's gameplay revealed. You may

14:10

have seen that somebody was leaking

14:11

Grand Theft Auto uh 6 clips and said he

14:14

was going to release the whole game. And

14:16

every time he did that, it was tagged

14:18

with a memecoin. Well, he was earning

14:19

fees on that memecoin trying to pump his

14:22

token by doing it. It was all about a

14:24

meme token and then was able to dump a

14:27

bunch of that on retail. Made about

14:28

$270,000. Reminding you, don't just buy

14:32

an unofficial meme coin cuz it has a

14:34

cool name that seems to be linked to

14:36

something. These are not real. They're

14:38

used to extract value and you will

14:40

eventually lose money and get rugpulled.

14:43

That's all we got today for the week. I

14:45

will be back on Monday with the next

14:47

Daily Wolf. Peace.

Interactive Summary

This episode of The Daily Wolf explores the complex tension between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury's market-supporting actions, highlighting how these influence Bitcoin's volatility. Additionally, the episode covers the strategic pivot of Bitcoin miners into AI data centers, the growing adoption of crypto assets by traditional financial institutions like Charles Schwab, and recent security challenges such as dust attacks on exchanges and memecoin scams.

Suggested questions

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