Bessent wants the Fed to ease. Warsh just said no.
372 segments
Last week, Scott Bent gave markets a
reason to believe the government would
defend the bond market and Bitcoin flew.
But today, Kevin Worsh reminded
investors that the Fed is still actively
fighting inflation. That tension matters
enormously for Bitcoin. I'm going to
tell you why and cover all the other
news driving crypto markets here on the
Daily Wolf. Let's go.
What is up everybody? Welcome to the
Daily Wolf on Yahoo Finance. I am your
host, Scott Melker, also known as the
Wolf of All Streets. Today is a big day.
Everybody was holding their breath,
awaiting the words of Kevin Worsh in
Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Now, I joked
earlier that uh we should actually be
looking for what he doesn't say and not
what he does say because we all know
that Kevin Wars is being purposely
tight- lipped, not trying to give very
much information, eliminating forward
guidance entirely, and trying basically
to be as opaque as humanly possible.
That's his new strategy. But he did come
out rather hawkish and markets probably
are going to take some time to absorb
that. And as I said in the intro, we now
have this strange push and pull between
the Treasury and the Fed. Many were
looking for the Treasury and Fed to work
together. People view Kevin Worsh as
Bent's guy. Both Bent and Kevin Worsh
were students of Drunken Miller and
Trump probably put them in place so that
they would work together to create the
ideal financial conditions. But so far
that is not exactly what's happening. So
you all remember that last week on
August 19th, the Treasury announced that
it would at least double its buybacks of
older 10 to 30year government bonds. The
maximum increase from 2 billion to 4
billion per operation beginning on
September 9th. Now, the Treasury
described this as liquidity support for
older bonds that trade less efficiently.
As I've told you, it's not quantitative
easing because it's not money printing
to do it. And it's not yield curve
control because there's not a specific
number that they're going to defend. But
either way, it was Bent coming in and
saying that the government has a level
of yields on long-term bonds that is not
acceptable and that they're willing to
do something about it. that sent Bitcoin
flying because long-term yields
determine mortgage rates, corporate
borrowing costs, asset valuations, and
of course, the government's own interest
bill. We know that the national debt is
now over $40 trillion. And that interest
bill is the largest line item on the
balance sheet. So, Bitcoin flew because
Bitcoin is supposed to fly when we
realize that fiscal and monetary policy
are irresponsible, as is our government.
So what we had today was an expectation
that Worsh would follow in his buddy
Besense path. So there was a lot of
articles saying Bitcoin will or won't go
up based on this and this is the most
important comments ever from a Fed chair
for Bitcoin. I don't agree with any of
that, but I can understand the reason
they were saying so because there were
basically two paths that Worsh could
take. Worsh could either say, "Yes,
we're going to ease. We're going to
lower interest rates. We are going to
support the operations here of the
Treasury. We want to refinance the debt
lower." Of course, none of these are the
Fed's business. Those are Treasury
problems. Or he could come in hawkish
and say, "We have a strong economy and
inflation is still a problem." He
basically did the latter. So, he says
the economy appeared to have
strengthened. He pointed out that
business business investment is growing
at its fastest pace since 2021 driven
heavily by AI and S&P profits have ri
risen more than 20% over the past year.
Credit spreads remain tight. Lending
standards are relatively e easy and war
said and I quote he would be quote
hardpressed to describe financial
conditions as broadly restricted. He als
rest restrictive. He also pointed out
that labor markets remain stable and
consistent with full employment
and then hinted that this allows the Fed
to concentrate on inflation with annual
PC at 3.7 month annualized PCE at 4.1%
more than half of the PCA basket has
increased by over 3% during the last
year. He said, this is where it's hawk
is. He said, recent improvements have
not meaningfully challenged the
underlying inflation trend and said the
2% target is quote firm and fixed. His
conclusion was that the Fed must see
inflation moving clearly and
sufficiently towards 2% otherwise it
still has work to do. Of course, he then
said he has no crystal ball. There'll be
no more forward guidance, all these
things. But he, this was his final
quote. I stand here today committed to a
discipline, not to a decision. So he was
non-committal. So it doesn't close the
door entirely. But right now, we have
Bessant and War addressing different
parts of the same problem. Right. Uh
Treasury has long-term borrowing costs
that cannot be allowed to destabilize
the financial system, but the Fed has
persistent inflation cannot be allowed
to destabilize the dollar or inflation
expectations. So he came in very
hawkish. He didn't say he's going to
raise rates. I don't think he will. But
he certainly indicated that there's no
reason to believe that they would cut
into an economy right now. And that is
not what Bent wants. Right? Basent wants
the Fed to make his job easier by
cutting. So very clearly Bitcoin's rally
that we had was not based on the idea
that the Fed would turn dovish. Right?
Right? It was a bet that America's debt
burden will eventually force policy
makers to control yields and tolerate
more inflation. Right? Bitcoin goes up
when the government is irresponsible and
Worsh really challenged that bet today
uh without destroying it. So we know
that Treasury is already demonstrating a
willingness to intervene and Worsh well
he really has not. So the question for
Bitcoin moving forward is which one of
those wins? Where does that tension play
out? And does Worsh eventually
capitulate do what Trump and BMP want
and cut rates? Really interesting
financial environment right now. I think
it's clear that if he's not going to do
what Trump and Bent want him to do that
we will remain in a fiscally dominated
environment where the actions of the
Treasury will be most prominent. So Wars
obviously made AI central to his
economic outlook talking about it and
one former Bitcoin miner just shows us
exactly what that transformation to an
AIdriven world looks like. Here you go.
Iron shares fall 8% as costly AI
transition weighs on earnings. Weakening
profitability overshadowed a major
milestone in Iron's transformation into
an AI cloud provider. So I've told this
story over and over and again. It
started with iron. Bitcoin miners are
becoming AI data centers. It's more
profitable for them to become AI data
centers. They're already set up to do
it. And Bitcoin mining right now is not
profitable at all. It's a perfect storm
for them to convert their business and
make a lot more money. So listen, at the
top line, this looked really good.
Iron's AI cloud revenue more than
doubled during the quarter to 70.5
million. Their Bitcoin mining revenue is
66.7.
So AI now generates 51.4%
of Iron's quarterly revenue. The first
time that we've seen a tilt in the
direction of AI, and we know that trend
will continue until Bitcoin mining uh
becomes a rounding error. This is very
clear evidence yet that iron and the
other miners I've told you about are
exactly what I've said, which is AI data
centers that may mine some Bitcoin when
it makes sense. So this seems like good
news for Iron, right? So why is the
stock down? While total quarterly
revenue fell 5% sequentially to 137.2
million adjusted EBA dropped 68% and
they recorded a 684
84 million net loss. Why? Because it's
really expensive to become an AI data
center and make that transition. Now
that will all clear out eventually. But
it should be clear that as much of it
see as it seems like this is an obvious
and easy pivot for these companies to
make, it is not. It's going to be
expensive and it's going to be
difficult. Either way though, we can
stop viewing Bitcoin miners as Bitcoin
miners. It's a misnomer. It's not the
case. They are AI data centers that will
likely mine some Bitcoin. And now, while
these cryptonative companies are
attempting to become AI companies,
traditional financial institutions
continue moving in the opposite
direction, deeper into crypto. And I'm
here for it.
Charles Schwab adds Salana avalanche
chain link to crypto platform. This is
native Salana avalanche and chain link
not ETF or some kind of wrapped
institutional exposure. This joins the
announcement that we had before that
they were offering Bitcoin and Ethereum
spot trading. Now to be clear, you
cannot transfer these assets on and off,
but you can buy and hold the spot assets
on Charles Schwab's platform. Chucky
Chuck Schwab,
this is going to happen in the coming
months. And
once again, uh the fees here will be 75
basis points like they are with Bitcoin
and Ethereum. So just to like put in
perspective how big this is, right?
doesn't mean that all these people are
going to buy these three very random
assets that they've added, but Schwab
oversees more than $12 trillion in
client assets with approximately 39
million active brokerage accounts. So
joining Bitcoin and Ethereum is not the
big story for Salana, Avalanche, and
Chain Link here. The big story is it
sits alongside customers, stocks, bonds,
ETFs, and cash. This makes a crypto
allocation far easier for investors who
in the past would have had to go open an
OKX or a Coinbase account to get
exposure. So people are asking why these
three. I mean Salana obviously is the
clearest large gap next to Ethereum.
They said that chain link is an
infrastructure connecting blockchains
with prices, financial data and
tokenized assets. Avalanche is a bet on
institutional networks and customizable
blockchain infrastructure. Schwabs are
take effectively taking three
established infrastructure plays rather
than offering hundreds of speculative
tokens. Eventually, this is going to be
everything I would imagine. Obviously,
not the case yet, but it is a slow roll
out that we're seeing from multiple
platforms, right? We obviously reported
on the fact that Morgan Stanley via
Erade had opened the doors to their 9
million customers to gain spot exposure
exposure to crypto assets as well. So,
as I've told you before, we have the
traditional brokerages and institutions
on one side, the crypto natives on the
other side, and they're all converging
to offer everything to everyone. And
it's going to be a very interesting
battle to see who wins. Now, to me, this
isn't really Charles Schwab trying to
gain new customers.
This is Charles Schwab trying not to
lose customers who want exposure to
these assets to other platforms. If you
leave Charles Schwab as a customer or
take 20% of your assets and go to OKX
and buy Bitcoin, that money never comes
back, right? Even if you go buy Bitcoin
right now, you can't send that Bitcoin
back to Charles Schwab. So, to me, this
is protection. They're making sure that
they offer the biggest most popular
assets in their view and that the
customers who want it can at least gain
some exposure there without seeing
capital flight. I think it's really
really interesting time right now in the
industry and we're going to uh see only
more of this moving into the future.
The next story is a really interesting
one. Kraken users briefly locked out
after a flood of sanctioned crypto
transactions. The activity appearing to
spread sanctioned funds to trigger
account restrictions occurred between
August 17th and August 24th. So, Kraken
basically received roughly 12,000 lowv
value crypto transfers in that oneweek
period. The transactions were between,
you know, a few cents and up to maybe
just a few dollars and they came from
wallets that Arkham Intelligence had
stated belong to HTX exchange. Now ATX
HTX is subject to UK sanctions and
European transaction ban over alleged
connections to Russian linked payment
network. So HTX themselves has disputed
this has anything to do with them that
the wallets are inappropriately
attributed. That's not the story. That's
what happened here. They are sanctioned
wallets regardless of where they're
coming from. So why would somebody do
this? Basically public blockchains allow
anyone to send funds to any valid
address. So a customer does not actually
have to approve to accept these
addresses. So by sending dust, as they
call this, from sanctioned wallets, you
can basically wildly disrupt an exchange
and make things very, very difficult for
the individuals you're sending to
because they're getting a transaction
from a sanctioned wallet, which caused
Kraken to obviously have to freeze very
temporarily the assets of some
legitimate customers that were doing
absolutely no nothing wrong. Now they
restored this quickly but what they did
here you know they identify exchange
link customer deposit addresses and then
send them all a little bit and then
compliance freezes it. So this becomes a
very very cheap attack vector these
hackers to cause mayhem. Crazy story.
And one very final story how not to
invest. We have GTA 6 leaker cashes out
of his own memecoin hours before
Rockstar's gameplay revealed. You may
have seen that somebody was leaking
Grand Theft Auto uh 6 clips and said he
was going to release the whole game. And
every time he did that, it was tagged
with a memecoin. Well, he was earning
fees on that memecoin trying to pump his
token by doing it. It was all about a
meme token and then was able to dump a
bunch of that on retail. Made about
$270,000. Reminding you, don't just buy
an unofficial meme coin cuz it has a
cool name that seems to be linked to
something. These are not real. They're
used to extract value and you will
eventually lose money and get rugpulled.
That's all we got today for the week. I
will be back on Monday with the next
Daily Wolf. Peace.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This episode of The Daily Wolf explores the complex tension between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury's market-supporting actions, highlighting how these influence Bitcoin's volatility. Additionally, the episode covers the strategic pivot of Bitcoin miners into AI data centers, the growing adoption of crypto assets by traditional financial institutions like Charles Schwab, and recent security challenges such as dust attacks on exchanges and memecoin scams.
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