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Conversation with Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft

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Conversation with Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft

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>> I want to talk about AI and I would

6:03

really want to because I think this is

6:05

on everybody's mind more than almost any

6:08

other subject today um related to

6:12

intersection of business, technology,

6:15

society. Um, so Satia, um,

6:19

you know, we're we're moving AI from

6:21

something that was experimental,

6:23

something that we always talked about in

6:25

the future, and now it's it's today. Um,

6:30

and it's now more foundational. [snorts]

6:32

And it's not just foundational for

6:35

companies, but it it really is becoming

6:37

now foundational

6:40

for countries and throughout society and

6:44

I think you know you have an advantage

6:46

over so many other people you know being

6:49

at the forefront of this technology

6:51

transition. Um so um with that I wanted

6:55

to ask a few questions related to that.

6:59

You have described that AI is a plat

7:01

plat uh platform shift

7:04

and what does what does that mean?

7:06

Question one, where do you see that

7:09

shift going in the next few years? And

7:11

importantly, the third part of my

7:13

question would be fast forwarding a few

7:15

years, five years,

7:18

what's going to seem obvious in

7:19

hindsight that feels less clear today?

7:23

You know, first of all, um it's great uh

7:25

to be back here, uh Larry, and it's um I

7:29

had a chance, in fact, yesterday when

7:31

you put out the letter, uh to kick off

7:34

the forum and read it. And um and in

7:37

there, you sort of had this one line of

7:40

uh really I think when it comes to AI,

7:44

the real question in front of all of us

7:45

is how do you ensure that the diffusion

7:48

of AI happens and happens fast? I mean I

7:51

think you had that line of how do the

7:53

models, the data and the infrastructure

7:55

[clears throat]

7:56

spread more evenly to create surplus

7:58

everywhere. If you sort of think about

8:00

it, the the way I come at this is not

8:03

that um this has always been the arc of

8:07

computation, right? You can sort of take

8:09

it in the last 30 years or the last 70

8:12

years. It's always been about can you

8:14

digitize

8:15

artifacts on about people, places, and

8:19

things and then build analytical and

8:24

predictive power. Right? That's what the

8:26

mainframes did. That's what the mini

8:28

computer did. That's what the client

8:30

server error did. That's what the web

8:32

error did. The mobile cloud error did.

8:34

So it like it it depend irrespective of

8:37

which paradigm or platform it has been

8:41

one continuous arc of saying let's make

8:45

better sense of this world um by

8:50

reasoning about it in digital form

8:53

because in some sense once you have

8:55

these artifacts in digital form you can

8:58

use a more malleable resource like

9:00

software

9:01

>> right

9:01

>> um which doesn't have the same type of

9:05

you know I'll call it [clears throat]

9:07

marginal cost economics associated with

9:10

it that allows us to then build more

9:13

insight and more uh more capability and

9:16

in that context AI I would say is of the

9:19

same class at least like the web or the

9:22

internet um or mobile or PC or the cloud

9:26

or and maybe even greater and so to me

9:30

right now where we are is you know let's

9:33

take just what's happened with software

9:36

engineering, right? Which is one, you

9:38

know, is knowledge work. Um, you know,

9:41

you could say it's elite knowledge work.

9:43

>> It started off, uh, you know, in fact,

9:46

my own belief in this generation of AI

9:49

and its capability. Uh, really got built

9:52

up when I first saw GitHub copilot do

9:54

code completions, right? So for the

9:56

longest time we had the dream that if

9:58

you're a software developer can you

10:00

predict the next sort of word or the

10:02

next uh line of code uh and suddenly it

10:06

started working with these models uh

10:08

then you said okay if I can do that then

10:10

can I actually go and bring back you

10:14

know the flow for a software developer

10:16

by going to a chat session and asking

10:18

any question and it comes back with

10:20

answers that then uh you can use in your

10:22

coding flow right so that was the next

10:24

thing then you said Well, if that's

10:26

working, can I assign it small tasks?

10:28

That was the agent mode. Uh, now you

10:31

have complete autonomous agents where

10:33

you can give it your entire project,

10:34

right? It can work uh, you know,

10:36

>> 24/7.

10:37

>> It can work for 24/7. I mean, it's still

10:39

we've got some ways to go for these

10:41

things to remain coherent long time. But

10:44

nevertheless, it's getting better and

10:46

better. And interestingly enough, you

10:49

look at it, uh, the software developer

10:51

still is got a lot of agency in it,

10:54

right? So that's why I kind of still

10:56

think that you know going and thinking

10:57

of these as somehow living outside of

11:00

the realm of human agency is probably

11:02

not the right way to think about it. In

11:04

fact, the way to perhaps conceive it

11:06

like if let's say in early 80s if

11:08

somebody had come to us and said what

11:11

four billion people are going to wake up

11:13

every morning and start typing you would

11:15

have said why right you know we have a

11:18

like we have a typist pool that's good

11:20

enough we don't need four billion people

11:22

but we that's what happened right we

11:24

invented this entire class of thing

11:27

called knowledge work where people

11:29

started really using computers uh to go

11:32

amplify what we were trying to achieve

11:35

uh using software. I think in the

11:37

context of AI that same thing is going

11:39

to happen.

11:40

>> Um it's not like you know what is

11:43

hardcore coding is going to remain

11:45

hardcore coding forever. It's just that

11:47

the levels of abstraction are going to

11:49

change. Uh but we also are going to have

11:52

code as output just like documents. In

11:54

fact, one of Bill's things at Microsoft

11:57

from the day I joined in '92 always was

11:59

what's the real difference between a

12:01

document, a website, and an application,

12:04

right? It's the lack of sort of software

12:07

that can transform itself. Interestingly

12:09

enough, AI finally gives us that, right?

12:11

Which is I can write a document. I can

12:14

just say, "No, I don't want it as a

12:15

document. I want it as a website." It'll

12:17

just transform that document using code

12:19

into a website. I say, "Oh, I don't like

12:21

the website. I want an app." it'll write

12:23

more code to transform it. So that

12:26

reasoning and cap reasoning capabilities

12:29

that prediction capabilities that

12:31

ability to take action remain long-term

12:33

coherent is all improving. Um and our

12:38

job though is to parlay this like take

12:41

even what you at BlackRock are doing

12:43

right when you're bring taking something

12:45

like say co-pilot plus Aladdin and

12:48

bringing those things [clears throat]

12:49

together

12:50

>> to improve the productivity in the firm

12:52

for the decisions you want to make right

12:55

with your data

12:56

>> I could just tell you from at our firm

12:58

things that would take 12 hours to

13:00

compute now takes minutes for us

13:03

processing $14 trillion of other

13:05

people's money with hundreds of

13:07

thousands of different um mandates um we

13:11

could do that instantaneous and we you

13:12

know that to me if it wasn't for the

13:14

technology and AI today we would not be

13:17

able to function to the scale that we're

13:18

operating

13:19

>> that's right and so to me that one firm

13:22

at a time one country at a time if we

13:25

can really take these tokens and bend

13:28

the curve of productivity then there is

13:30

surplus everywhere and that's really the

13:32

goal

13:33

>> well surplus could be scary too does

13:35

does surplus mean fewer workers? What do

13:38

we mean by surplus? And so, you know,

13:41

the I'm going to tie that into my second

13:43

question about AI diffusion.

13:45

>> Yeah.

13:45

>> To me, the the whole realization of AI

13:48

for any society and also for a more

13:52

balanced world is making sure that it's

13:54

diffused and accessible and available

13:57

across the world. So what you know can

13:59

you describe how this process of

14:02

diffusion uh across economies across

14:05

companies across people and countries

14:07

how does that play out?

14:09

>> Yeah I think

14:11

that this is the real question right

14:13

because one of the uh things right now

14:16

the zeitgeist is a little bit about the

14:18

admiration for AI in its abstract form

14:22

or as as technology.

14:25

>> [clears throat]

14:26

>> uh but I think we as even a global

14:28

community um have to get to a point

14:31

where we're using this to do something

14:34

useful uh that changes uh the outcomes

14:38

of people and communities and countries

14:40

and industries right otherwise I don't

14:42

think uh this makes much sense right in

14:44

fact I would say we will quickly lose

14:46

even the social permission uh to

14:50

actually take something like uh energy

14:52

which is a scarce resource and use it to

14:55

generate these tokens. If these tokens

14:57

are not improving health outcomes,

14:58

education outcomes, public sector

15:00

efficiency, private sector

15:02

competitiveness across all sectors,

15:04

small and large, right? And that to me

15:07

is ultimately the goal. So therefore I

15:10

think really diffusion is everything.

15:13

And so the way it happens is let's sort

15:16

of unpack this uh on the supply side

15:19

what needs to happen in each country is

15:22

the tokens per dollar per watt have to

15:25

sort of monotonically get more efficient

15:28

and better right so to some degree even

15:30

what we're trying to do with the

15:32

investments the two firms are doing uh

15:34

around the world is to just say that

15:36

like let's make sure that the supply is

15:38

there which is uh everything from the

15:41

chips on down ultimately ely to these

15:44

token factories that get deployed

15:46

everywhere. By the way, there's not one

15:47

token factory. This token factory is the

15:50

first thing that's going to be diffused

15:52

all around the world. It's just like

15:53

electricity, right? You just need a

15:56

ubiquitous grid of uh energy and tokens

16:01

that then will power the rest of the

16:04

economy. Right? So that's I think one

16:06

side of it. Then the demand side of this

16:09

is a little bit like every firm has to

16:12

start by using it. If I look back even

16:15

you know when the PCs first came out or

16:18

the personal computing era started I I

16:20

loved you know I think Jobs had a nice

16:22

metaphor he called it the bicycle for

16:24

the mind uh Bill had a metaphor which I

16:27

remember was like information at your

16:29

fingertips right these two metaphors

16:30

were great like which allowed us to say

16:33

that's what it is it's a tool that I

16:34

will use to get information at my

16:36

fingertips I'll use it as a cognitive

16:38

amplifier

16:40

now I think that's what we have

16:43

you know 10x 100x right so in some sense

16:46

you as a as every knowledge worker you

16:49

now have access to infinite minds that's

16:52

the way I think about it right so

16:54

there's a [clears throat] cheering award

16:55

winner uh called Raj ready who had this

16:57

nice metaphor of AI and he had this long

17:00

before uh even generative AI he said

17:02

either either it's a cognitive amplifier

17:04

or it's a guardian angel right so if you

17:07

think of AI as that um then that in the

17:11

global workforce

17:12

Right? When a doctor can get to a

17:16

patient, spend more time with the

17:17

patient because the AI is doing the

17:19

transcription and entering the records

17:22

in the EMR system entering the right

17:24

billing code so that the health care uh

17:27

you know industry is better served

17:29

across the payer, the provider and uh

17:32

and the patient ultimately right that's

17:35

an an outcome that I think all of us can

17:37

benefit from. So I feel ultimately it's

17:40

going to require real leadership on the

17:43

private sector and the public sector to

17:46

ensure that diffusion happens and the

17:48

one thing other thing I'll mention Larry

17:50

is skilling right so in some sense the

17:54

thing that diffusion is very strongly

17:58

correlated to one thing alone which is

18:01

how broadly are people skilled in using

18:04

this um and interestingly enough I Think

18:08

if mobile has taught us one thing is it

18:12

it's actually distinct from what

18:13

happened in the PC right uh I remember

18:16

even growing up in the global south uh

18:18

there used to be a real relationship

18:21

between learning excel skills or word

18:24

skills and getting a job um you know

18:27

right now um what's the model in in

18:30

mobile it's kind of created the same

18:32

opportunity but it's been a lot more

18:34

consumptionled it's these creator

18:36

economy and what have But it has not

18:38

been about sort of oh wow here is how

18:40

you get a healthare job or here is how

18:42

you get a finance job or here is how you

18:44

get you know you get ahead

18:46

professionally

18:48

um and that needs to come back right

18:51

people need to say I pick up this AI

18:53

skill and now I'm a better provider of

18:56

some product or service in the real

18:58

economy

18:59

>> so it's it's very [clears throat] easy

19:00

to see how mobile and the diffusion of

19:03

mobile how it transformed economies

19:05

especially in the global South. How does

19:08

how do this you know to me I I I just

19:11

read a research report that said

19:14

the applications for AI so far are

19:17

heavily weighted towards those who are

19:18

educated or educated economies.

19:21

And so does that create that you know

19:23

more of a bifurcation a more

19:25

polarization? How do we ensure that that

19:28

that diffusion is spread evenly? How do

19:31

we make sure that [clears throat] we're

19:32

not leaving major portions of society or

19:36

the world behind? Because I think that's

19:38

that's [clears throat] going to be the

19:39

big issue for us going forward.

19:41

>> Yeah. So, it's it's it's interesting,

19:42

right? This is one of those times when

19:46

uh by definition and because of the

19:50

rails that have been established you

19:52

know as you said right which is

19:54

>> uh what's happened with mobile as well

19:57

as what's happened with um uh you know

20:00

essentially connectivity

20:01

>> right

20:02

>> you have the ability [clears throat] to

20:04

sort of deliver the tokens pretty evenly

20:06

around the world

20:07

>> right

20:08

>> a lot more so than let's say uh the PC

20:11

era or even the beginning of the mobile

20:13

era, right? Because it took a long time

20:15

for even the mo smartphone in particular

20:17

to penetrate um all of the world.

20:20

Whereas now it's not the case, right?

20:23

These models and their outputs are

20:26

pretty much available everywhere. And so

20:28

the question to me is

20:31

what's the use cases that make sense,

20:34

right? It's one in fact one of the demos

20:35

I always go back to. I think this was

20:37

even in the beginning of 23 was a rural

20:40

Indian farmer was able to use a bot

20:43

built on I think a very early GPT3 or 25

20:46

even uh essentially to reason over some

20:50

farm subsidies that he had heard about

20:52

in a local language and had it even in

20:55

that very early days uh have it even

20:58

show some agentic behavior right like go

21:00

complete a form for me. So in some sense

21:02

it took you know it brought back agency

21:06

to someone uh who perhaps didn't have

21:09

that because the technology was so much

21:11

more accessible. So I I do think it's in

21:14

our hands even in the global south to

21:17

use it uh to create I would say more of

21:21

that opportunity where there isn't one.

21:24

Um but I think what the [clears throat]

21:26

necessary conditions still are do you

21:28

have uh the capital investment being put

21:32

in uh do you even have an environment

21:34

for capital because in an interesting

21:36

way we are for example as hyperscalers

21:38

investing all over right including the

21:40

global south uh so as long as there's an

21:42

environment which attracts the capital

21:44

investment

21:45

>> and you see the demand

21:46

>> and you see and then yeah the demand is

21:48

there yeah

21:49

>> um and so the question is how do you

21:51

have a set of policies that allow for

21:53

both the capital to come in for it to

21:56

find nexus with there are certain things

21:58

by the way private capital can do

22:00

certain things that public capital only

22:02

can do for example the grid right it's

22:05

not I mean grid in most countries is

22:07

sort of fundamentally driven by

22:09

governments

22:10

>> public

22:10

>> and public and so if [clears throat] you

22:12

don't have a sophisticated sort or

22:14

rather if you don't have a a real

22:16

approach to modernizing the grid uh that

22:19

will hold things back I mean there's a

22:21

lot of talk about behind the meter and

22:22

so on and Yes, there's some amount of

22:24

that we can do ourselves.

22:25

>> We can do that in the US. Many countries

22:26

can't.

22:27

>> Exactly. And it's not long-term

22:29

scalable, right? I mean, like to me, a

22:31

long-term scalable solution is to have

22:34

uh you know, all of these token

22:36

factories, part of the real economy,

22:39

connected to the grid, connected to the

22:41

telco network, delivering uh just like

22:44

we delivered bits, you have to deliver

22:46

tokens plus bits. Um and that's kind of

22:49

what's going to drive an at scale

22:51

whether it's in the global south or in

22:53

uh on the developed world.

22:55

>> So so many people talk about there may

22:56

be an AI bubble. I mean the most

22:58

important thing that we see as an

23:00

investor is the the democratization of

23:04

technology is and the diffusion of that

23:07

technology really does then transform

23:09

the demand and the the companies or the

23:12

countries that diffuse it fastest are

23:14

going to be the ultimate winners. not

23:16

the technology creator.

23:18

>> That's that's you know it's it's it's

23:22

for this not to be a bubble

23:24

>> y

23:25

>> by definition it requires that the

23:29

benefits of this are much more evenly

23:32

spread. I mean I think a telltel sign of

23:35

if it's a bubble would be if all we're

23:38

talking about are the tech firms. Uh

23:42

right? If uh all we talk about is what's

23:45

happening to the technology side that

23:47

then that's by you know it's just purely

23:49

supply side

23:50

>> right

23:50

>> uh ultimately if we are not talking

23:53

about wow here is a drug comp you know

23:55

drug that was sort of uh brought into

23:57

the market that's super successful

23:59

because it was uh AI accelerated the

24:01

clinical trial it's not even the magical

24:03

molecule right it's kind of even the

24:05

rest of what is uh needed in order to

24:08

make something much more relevant right

24:11

um and So the more we [clears throat]

24:14

have uh and by the way it's happening

24:16

right. So I'm not sort of saying that

24:18

that's why I'm much more confident that

24:21

this is a technology that will in fact

24:23

build on the rails of cloud and mobile

24:26

diffuse faster and bend the productivity

24:30

curve and bring local surplus and

24:34

economic growth all around the world.

24:36

Not just economic growth driven by

24:38

capital expenses.

24:41

uh right because that's it's a narrow

24:43

point in time uh calculation is

24:46

>> right now that's what we're seeing more

24:47

>> that's what we're seeing you know you

24:48

know in in the developed world in

24:50

particular uh but remember my capital

24:53

like that the one thing that you know is

24:55

definitely we spending a lot of it in

24:57

the United States but 50% of it is also

24:59

all over the world

25:00

>> right

25:01

>> um and so interesting enough it depends

25:04

on uh demand all over the world and the

25:07

demand all over the world will only be

25:08

there if there is local surplus plus all

25:10

over the world. And so that's sort of

25:12

the way I see the equation.

25:14

>> So let's drill down a little more. As AI

25:17

diffuses,

25:18

obviously organizations, companies,

25:21

governments are going to have to evolve.

25:23

I'm now getting to the demand side. So

25:26

how do you think the structure of

25:28

organizations is changing in an AI world

25:32

across roles, across teams, management?

25:35

I'm I'm sure um Microsoft has evolved

25:39

itself. So it probably be good to tell

25:42

the audience how do you see this

25:44

diffusion occur in the utilization at

25:47

the corporate level or at a government

25:49

level that which ultimately then creates

25:50

that demand which eliminates any fears

25:53

and bubbles.

25:53

>> Yeah. Now I think it's probably one of

25:55

the the the big challenges with all of

25:58

these new technologies is when u work

26:02

work artifact and workflow changes

26:06

uh that means we as firms have to change

26:10

how we work. In fact, I remember meeting

26:13

um uh the CEO of General Ali, you know,

26:16

a few years back and he was describing

26:18

he had joined um uh the firm, you know,

26:21

prec [clears throat] era and uh uh and

26:24

he was describing how for example they

26:26

worked with their agents in the field uh

26:29

with faxes inter office memos and um and

26:33

and suddenly [clears throat] the PC

26:34

showed up and people would then put a

26:36

spreadsheet in an email and send it

26:38

around and the entire workflow and the

26:40

work process has changed right so

26:42

similarly I think with AI uh you are

26:45

going to start seeing uh actual change

26:48

in how workflow happens right I mean

26:50

even [clears throat]

26:52

in fact for me coming to Davos you know

26:54

whatever 50 bilateral meetings I have

26:56

preparing for those uh had a particular

26:59

workflow right which is uh there is to

27:02

be my field team would prepare notes and

27:04

that would come to my HQ and that would

27:06

get further refined and nothing had

27:08

really changed right since I joined in

27:11

'92 to essentially even a few years

27:13

back. Whereas now I just go to co-pilot

27:16

and say hey I'm meeting Larry please

27:18

give me a brief and it comes back and

27:20

gives me by the way the one nice thing

27:22

is it gives me a 360 right it knows what

27:25

we're doing with you as a client what

27:27

we're doing as a client of yours and

27:29

everything in [clears throat and cough]

27:30

between as an investment it's so it

27:31

captures even information unlike

27:34

anything else in fact what I do is I

27:36

take that and immediately share that

27:39

back with all my colleagues across all

27:41

the functions right think about it it's

27:42

a complete inversion of how information

27:46

is flowing in the organization. It's not

27:48

like this classic we have an

27:50

organization, we have departments, we

27:52

have these specializations and the

27:54

information trickles up. No, no, no. It

27:57

actually it flattens the entire

28:00

information flow. So once you start

28:03

having that you have to redesign

28:05

structurally. Uh so the current

28:08

structure may not make sense. um because

28:12

you want people to be able to work in a

28:15

way that allows them to have this

28:18

information flow freely. So what all

28:21

this leads me to if I had to sort of say

28:23

what's the formula the formula I think

28:25

it starts with the mindset. So the

28:27

mindset we as leaders should have is we

28:31

need to think about changing the work

28:34

the workflow with the technology then

28:37

that needs skill set. So you can't sort

28:40

of talk about this in the abstract. You

28:42

got to use it. Like so if I'm not using

28:44

the

28:44

>> you have to trust it.

28:45

>> You have to trust it. You have to use

28:47

it. You have to learn even how to put

28:49

the guardrails to trust it. Right? So

28:51

you can't again you can't just be afraid

28:53

of it. Uh it's going to it's going to be

28:56

diffused. So the question is as a firm

28:59

you have to use it to learn how to even

29:02

uh put the guardrails that allow you to

29:04

be able to trust it. So skills uh so

29:08

mindset skills the other big

29:10

consideration uh really is how do you

29:13

make sure you have the data set that

29:17

you're feeding like context like it's

29:20

kind of like you have a new intelligence

29:22

layer but the intelligence layer is only

29:25

as good as the context you give it. So

29:28

people describe it even as context

29:30

engineering but that is what firms do

29:33

right if you think about what do firms

29:35

do it's all about the tacit knowledge we

29:37

have by working as people in various

29:40

departments and moving paper and

29:43

information so the question is how do

29:44

you really have this AI also have that

29:46

context so these are sort of some of the

29:49

new things that have to percolate

29:52

throughout an organization uh to take

29:54

advantage in fact that's why I think you

29:56

you're going to see that challenge of

29:58

why am I not seeing immediate results in

30:01

productivity because you have to do the

30:03

hard work. In fact, that's why it's not

30:05

going to be at some you know it's going

30:06

to there going to be firmwide

30:08

differences. They're going to there

30:09

could be sectorwide differences but it's

30:12

going to fundamentally be because of the

30:14

leadership will in an organization.

30:17

>> Do you see the applications being used

30:19

across large companies and medium and

30:22

small companies or is it still the

30:24

domain of mostly the large companies at

30:26

this moment? I I think that what you're

30:28

seeing is it's easier the because if you

30:32

have a green sort of um uh you know if

30:36

you start fresh it's easier to adopt

30:38

these tools and you construct your

30:41

organization knowing that these tools

30:43

exist. So

30:44

>> is it a barbell then?

30:45

>> It is a barbell. So small companies that

30:47

are just starting use that platform

30:50

>> 100%. And I think in fact I would say

30:51

even for large organization there's a

30:53

fundamental challenge right because

30:55

unless and until your rate of change

30:57

keeps up with

30:58

>> right

30:59

>> uh with with what is possible uh you

31:01

you're going to get schooled by someone

31:04

small being able to achieve scale

31:06

because of these tools. So but I think

31:09

scale I mean large organizations have an

31:11

inherent strength. You have the

31:12

relationships, you have the data, you

31:14

have uh um you have knowhow. But the

31:17

bottom line is if you don't translate

31:19

that with a new production function, uh

31:22

then you really will be stuck. And so

31:24

therefore the change management

31:26

challenge for large organizations is

31:28

going to be bigger. The structural

31:30

challenge for small organizations of how

31:32

to overcome scale issues is going to be

31:34

harder. So it's sort of the two sides in

31:36

an interesting way. It's going to be a

31:37

very competitively intense world uh

31:41

where neither side like whether you're a

31:43

new entrant or an incumbent can't take

31:45

it as like I I can just coast. What

31:48

about country to country? Are you seeing

31:52

big differences in how the applications

31:54

are being used? Is it is AI still the

31:56

domain of developed countries or is it

31:59

becoming rapidly a domain of all

32:01

countries? I I I'm seeing there are two

32:03

things [clears throat] I would say Larry

32:04

as I travel around the world the quality

32:08

of um whether it's the knowhow the

32:11

software developers the startups

32:15

um or even large or large organizations

32:18

it's not that different it's fascinating

32:20

you can show up in Jakarta you can show

32:22

up in Istanbul you can show up in Mexico

32:24

City it's not that different than

32:27

showing up even in say Seattle or San

32:29

Francisco right it's not uh for the

32:31

first time just because access to what's

32:34

happening uh is there that said

32:39

[clears throat] at scale the commitment

32:42

to using this the risk capital being

32:45

there the large companies pushing it

32:48

hard I mean I you know again the US you

32:52

know is in fact if I compare it uh take

32:55

financial sector if financial sector's

32:59

adoption of the cloud

33:00

versus AI night and day right because in

33:04

an interesting way it's much faster uh

33:07

when it comes to AI versus it was with

33:10

the cloud and cloud because for a

33:11

variety of reasons

33:12

>> regulatory issues too until the

33:15

regulators allowed banks to bring their

33:18

data off out of campus that was a big

33:20

issue.

33:21

>> Yeah. So I would say I think wherever

33:23

[clears throat] you know so in the west

33:25

in particular in the US uh there is

33:28

clearly a real I would say more of an

33:31

energy around it in terms of going and

33:34

using it uh but it's sort of a lot more

33:37

uniformly spreading around the world

33:40

than any technology at least I've seen

33:42

>> but are you are you you [clears throat]

33:43

mentioned about the power the grid is

33:46

that going to be one of the determinants

33:48

of of the accessibility ility if you do

33:51

not have cheap power it the demand is

33:55

costly

33:56

>> 100%. So if you sort of look at the

33:59

tokens per dollar per watt right which I

34:01

think in [clears throat] some sense I

34:03

would claim that GDP growth in any place

34:07

will be directly correlated like you if

34:09

you sort of buy my entire argument that

34:10

look we've got a new commodity its

34:13

tokens

34:14

>> right

34:14

>> and the job of every economy uh and

34:17

every firm in the economy is to

34:19

translate these tokens into economic

34:21

growth then if you have a cheaper

34:24

commodity it's better uh And so that's

34:27

sort of what why there's tokens per

34:29

dollar per watt. And by the way, there

34:31

are many many elements to this, right?

34:33

Which is uh it's not just um the

34:35

production side. That's why I think even

34:37

having the grid is important. Um uh

34:40

construction costs, right? So if you

34:42

like if you think about the total TCO

34:45

uh everything it's like the how are you

34:47

a cheap producer of energy? Can you

34:49

build the data centers? Uh then what's

34:51

the cost curve uh of the silicon and the

34:54

systems? uh the and by the way look at

34:57

the token pricing right token pricing

35:00

basically drops by you know a half uh

35:04

every 3 months uh I mean this is a so

35:07

how so that that's why I think you can

35:10

sort of really plot how you use the

35:14

tokens to create surplus knowing that

35:16

you have a commodity that's whose prices

35:18

are just going to monotonically come

35:19

down in a pretty fast curve

35:21

>> we're sitting in Europe uh and there is

35:24

a real fear

35:27

because of the co Europe does not have

35:29

its own power. It has to import mostly

35:32

of its power. Um

35:35

do you have any messages for Europe

35:37

related to this?

35:38

>> Yeah, I mean I think so there are two

35:40

sets of things right. one is you know

35:42

here we are in in Switzerland and I look

35:44

at uh the the pharma or the financial

35:47

sector you know obviously Switzer uh

35:50

they they do do a big job in in in this

35:53

country as in in Europe but they're also

35:54

international brands and international

35:56

operations. So one thing that uh

35:58

whenever I think about Europe is the

36:00

Europeans are producing products and

36:02

services that actually are going

36:04

everywhere in the world and so therefore

36:07

uh European competitiveness is about the

36:09

competitiveness of their output globally

36:12

not just in Europe. I think sometimes

36:14

when you come to Europe there's a lot of

36:15

conversation about just Europe. Uh but

36:18

European economy is thrives and has you

36:22

know thrived in the last whatever 200

36:24

years 300 years. the miracle of the west

36:26

is fundamentally because of what has

36:27

happened in Europe uh is because they

36:29

were able to produce things that the

36:31

world needed and so I would say that's

36:33

number one and in order to do that you

36:35

again I go back to the human capital

36:37

here is just fantastic and world class

36:40

uh you have to absolutely invest in uh

36:43

producing uh you know having the energy

36:46

and the tokens here which again you're

36:48

attracting like as I said we're

36:49

investing and others are investing uh

36:52

the the data centers here so the

36:54

question is what's that next generation

36:56

of output that comes from here. Right? I

36:58

always think about the German middle

37:00

star. Whenever I go to a jeweler or a

37:02

dentist in the United States, I'm

37:04

surrounded by German middle. Right.

37:06

Totally.

37:06

>> Um it's just unbelievable engineering

37:09

provice of that country. uh and now the

37:12

question and by the way that's the point

37:14

that they are producing industrial

37:17

products which today are built in into

37:21

it all the intelligence as well that

37:23

data right so I know whenever we come to

37:26

Europe everyone's like talking about

37:28

sovereignty and data this data that

37:31

guess what Europe actually should be

37:34

much more concerned about access to

37:37

their industrial companies their

37:40

financial services companies of data

37:42

from US and the rest of the world. Uh as

37:46

opposed to just thinking that somehow by

37:48

protecting Europe you're going to be

37:49

competitive. You are only going to be

37:51

competitive if the products coming out

37:53

of Europe are globally competitive,

37:56

right?

37:57

>> Um and so that's I think what needs to

38:00

change. Uh you know Europe has led in

38:02

privacy that's fantastic has led in many

38:05

aspects of even safety around AI and

38:07

what have you. And that's a feature uh

38:10

that's great. But you also have to

38:11

complement it with by building locally

38:14

and then also thinking globally what's

38:16

the contribution this continent will

38:19

make uh to the rest of the world which

38:21

it has historically been a leader

38:23

>> a leader. So do you think the whole idea

38:26

around sovereignty of data is that being

38:28

misunderstood?

38:30

I I think that the when people talk

38:32

about sovereignty

38:35

first of all it's very important clearly

38:38

and who owns

38:39

>> and in a week like this it's more

38:41

important

38:42

>> uh but that said uh it is you have to

38:48

kind of think about how what is

38:50

sovereignty mean like for example in the

38:51

AIL the topic that's least talked about

38:54

but I feel will be most talked about in

38:58

in this uh this calendar will be the

39:00

sovereignty of a firm. Just imagine if

39:03

your firm you're not able to embed the

39:07

tacit knowledge of the firm in a set of

39:11

weights in a model that you control. By

39:15

definition, you have no sovereignty.

39:17

That means you're leaking enterprise

39:19

value to some model company somewhere.

39:23

In fact, that it's sort of fascinating

39:24

that nobody's talking about that, right?

39:26

It's like everybody's talking about

39:27

everything else that is sort of you know

39:30

outside of that whereas the most

39:33

important thing is it really doesn't

39:35

matter if you in fact the data center

39:37

where it runs is the least important

39:39

thing quite honestly but like even there

39:41

first of all the data centers all are

39:43

all over just because speed of light is

39:45

a real constraint uh and so therefore

39:47

the data centers will be spread yes uh

39:49

you will have digital you'll be able to

39:51

encrypt everything you'll be able to

39:53

have the keys with you all of these are

39:55

much more techn technically solve

39:57

problems but the one problem that will

40:00

only be solved is by you having much

40:03

more sovereignty over the you know tacid

40:05

knowledge uh and control over the models

40:08

and it's not a one-way enterprise value

40:10

transfer um and so to me I think

40:13

sovereignty requires real thought on

40:15

what is it um you know control of

40:18

destiny means that your your ability to

40:22

produce something that is unique is

40:24

preserved uh David Ricard was not wrong.

40:26

There's comparative advantage in

40:28

countries. Uh there is comparative

40:31

advantage in firms that needs to be

40:34

preserved even in the AI era. That's

40:36

what'll give you real sovereignty.

40:38

>> One last question. I know we're running

40:40

out of time.

40:41

Um in 5 years or 10 years, is there

40:44

going to be one dominant model that

40:45

we're all going to be using or are and

40:48

how is Microsoft preparing for this? Are

40:50

you going to be are we going to be using

40:52

one model for for enterprise, one model

40:55

for other other traits?

40:57

>> You know, even in the last whatever 3

41:00

years, four years that we've been at it,

41:02

um the the reality at this point is it's

41:06

a multimodel world, right? I mean the in

41:09

fact if you think about it the in both

41:14

there are going to be multiple models

41:18

and the trick is really how do you take

41:21

advantage of these multiple models and

41:24

in fact build your own model by

41:26

distilling these right uh so think of

41:29

these models uh that you orchestrate to

41:32

build your own model and more

41:34

importantly you do what is described as

41:37

orchestration or harness engineering. So

41:40

the IP of any application or any firm is

41:44

how do you use all these models with

41:47

context engineering or your data. Yes.

41:50

>> Right. So it's that three parts. So can

41:52

I bring in all the models by the way uh

41:54

which is closed source, open source,

41:56

build my own model, orchestrate them and

42:00

feed it my data to change the trajectory

42:04

of some outcome that I care about.

42:06

That's it. That's the entire picture. So

42:09

you can do it in like oh I produce a

42:11

particular product or service. Uh first

42:13

I got to do better better job in sales

42:16

or better job in R&D or better job in

42:18

finance or what have you. And you take

42:20

that outcome and then you say can I use

42:22

all the models orchestrate them and feed

42:25

it my context and then in as a result of

42:27

it the reasoning traces are really

42:30

leading to some capability and models

42:33

that I control as my IP. As long as

42:36

firms can answer that question, they're

42:38

going to be getting ahead.

42:40

>> Ladies and gentlemen, let's uh thank

42:43

Satya, my friend. Thank you [applause]

42:47

for

42:50

and hopefully this is the beginning of

42:52

many great dialogue and conversations

42:54

here at the World Academic Forum. Thank

42:57

you everyone.

42:57

>> Thank you.

43:03

Heat. Heat.

43:11

[music]

43:34

>> [music]

43:36

>> Heat. Heat.

43:47

>> [music]

Interactive Summary

This video features a conversation about the rapid development and diffusion of AI technology. It discusses AI as a fundamental shift in computing, comparable to the advent of the web or mobile technology, focusing on its ability to act as a cognitive amplifier and agentic tool. The discussion highlights the necessity of diffusing AI across global economies, industries, and societies to create surplus and productivity, rather than keeping it contained within tech firms. The dialogue also explores the evolution of organizational structures, the importance of data sovereignty, and the future of a multi-model ecosystem where firms use context engineering to leverage AI for their specific competitive advantages.

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