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AI-Designed Viruses, OpenAI’s First Device, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN

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AI-Designed Viruses, OpenAI’s First Device, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN

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1052 segments

0:05

Who had orange in the chat because the

0:08

chat was trying to guess what color

0:10

sunglasses Jerry would be wearing today?

0:12

Is that orange or is that more of like a

0:14

burnt sienna?

0:15

>> Well, I think it's more of a green

0:17

greenish frame with more of with an

0:20

orange lens.

0:20

>> to drop the line. I'm wearing sunglasses

0:23

cuz I'm looking at the future and it's

0:24

very bright indeed. I don't know. No one

0:27

gets that reference.

0:28

>> Anyway.

0:30

>> [laughter]

0:32

>> Oh.

0:33

>> Uh

0:33

it's great to be back. It's Friday. We

0:35

got a shorter show for everyone today.

0:38

General partner Coastline Ventures

0:40

coming on to talk about their new

0:42

investment Discovery Loop.

0:44

>> Yeah.

0:44

>> Founded by none other than Jeff Dean

0:47

and some of his crew from DeepMind. And

0:50

then we have Patrick Wendell, co-founder

0:51

of Databricks,

0:53

joining to talk about their new blog

0:55

post. I promise it's going to be more

0:57

exciting

0:58

>> [laughter]

0:59

>> than it sounds like.

1:00

Um no, but they're doing smarter model

1:02

routing and uh we're excited to catch up

1:04

with him.

1:05

>> They're excited. Well, for the first

1:06

time scientists have used AI to create

1:09

entirely new viruses. You

1:12

>> You asked for it, they delivered.

1:15

They delivered.

1:17

>> Uh

1:17

>> They they woke up this You know what we

1:19

don't have enough of?

1:20

>> viruses that have never existed in

1:22

nature before. It's marked a milestone

1:24

that could accelerate biotechnology

1:26

while also raising long-term biosecurity

1:28

questions, of course. Nightmare scenario

1:31

is you go to Best Buy, you get a gaming

1:33

PC with a couple pretty stock graphics

1:35

cards, and you're able to run an

1:37

open-source model that basically walks

1:40

you through the steps of creating

1:41

something really problematic. At the

1:43

same time, there's a lot of really

1:44

talented and well-resourced

1:46

organizations that are fighting that

1:48

tooth and nail, and so we'll probably

1:50

see a little little

1:52

uh you know, back and forth equilibrium

1:53

there. But uh lots of interesting

1:55

questions. Important to note that these

1:57

viruses do not affect humans whatsoever,

2:00

even these new viruses. They target

2:03

bacteria. So, it's more of an

2:05

experiment, more of a demo, but you can

2:07

see where things are going and

2:10

are we going

2:10

>> That doesn't make me that comforted, to

2:11

be honest with you, because I because we

2:13

naturally you know we naturally have

2:15

we're there's bacteria

2:17

>> Yeah.

2:18

>> that is it's part of being human.

2:20

>> And you would like the bacteria to be

2:21

unaffected by viruses. Is anyone

2:23

standing up for the bacteria right now?

2:25

>> Well, it's more so like you have

2:26

bacteria you have bacteria in your gut

2:29

and the gut is kind of an important part

2:31

of

2:32

>> bacteria is going to be suffering from a

2:33

novel virus, apparently.

2:35

>> Yeah.

2:35

>> Uh well, in a study published Thursday

2:37

in Science, researchers at Stanford and

2:39

the Arc Institute trained an AI model to

2:41

recognize patterns in naturally

2:43

occurring viral DNA, then used it to

2:47

generate genetic sequences for brand new

2:49

viruses. After synthesizing those DNA

2:52

sequences and inserting them into

2:53

bacteria, the team found the bacteria

2:55

produced viable viruses capable of

2:58

infecting other bacteria. The work does

3:00

not create a new threat to humans. Be

3:03

careful, I'm sure that will get cut out

3:05

of a lot of uh messaging around this cuz

3:07

it sounds really scary on its face. The

3:10

AI was trained only on bacteriophages,

3:12

viruses that infect bacteria, and

3:14

specifically excluded viruses that

3:16

infect humans, plants, animals, and

3:18

fungi. As a result, the model cannot

3:21

generate viruses capable of infecting

3:23

people. While scientists have been

3:24

synthesizing viral genomes for years to

3:26

study diseases and develop vaccines,

3:28

this is the first time AI has been used

3:30

to design entirely new viruses that

3:32

function in the real world. And I was

3:33

going back and forth before the show on

3:36

is this anything special? You know,

3:38

we've been using tools to make viruses

3:39

for bacteria for a long time. This is

3:41

just another tool to do it or is this

3:43

some you know material breakthrough?

3:45

That's sort of a debate point. It sounds

3:46

really scary, but also like you've been

3:48

able to design these viruses in a lab

3:50

for a long time. So, what is the

3:53

material difference here? I think it all

3:54

comes back to acceleration and cost. If

3:57

all of a sudden it becomes a thousand

3:58

times cheaper to generate viruses, then

4:01

that could reshape biotech in a positive

4:03

way, but also have biosecurity

4:05

implications.

4:06

>> Yeah, I think a lot of the reaction is

4:07

just that it feels like a little too

4:10

soon post Wuhan, little too soon post

4:13

hugging face. There's been a variety of

4:15

events that I think

4:18

naturally make people a little

4:19

apprehensive when you see a headline

4:20

like this.

4:21

>> Yeah, a lot of people are like, you

4:22

know, the LEAs are you kowski reaction

4:25

of

4:26

like this is bad.

4:27

But we'll see where it goes. If the

4:29

approach proves effective across other

4:31

classes of viruses, it could become a

4:32

powerful tool for medicine and

4:34

biotechnology. Viruses are already

4:36

widely used as delivery vehicles for

4:38

gene therapies and other medical

4:40

treatments, and AI designed viruses

4:42

could eventually expand that toolkit. At

4:45

the same time, the research highlights

4:46

how advanced how advances in AI are

4:48

making it increasingly important to

4:50

build safeguards alongside new

4:51

capabilities, which I'm sure the Arc

4:52

Institute is working on. And there's

4:54

also other other AI driven

4:57

neo-scientific labs. I mean, Jeff Dean's

5:00

one of those was advancing one of the

5:02

goals of his new company is to work on

5:04

biotech broadly. He has a very broad

5:08

remit, but there are more narrow

5:09

projects like that new company that's

5:11

focused on finding a cure for the common

5:13

cold. There are a few other projects

5:15

that are more narrowly targeted, as well

5:16

as all the biotech companies that are

5:18

working on stuff. If we're going to get

5:20

advances in viruses that deliver gene

5:23

therapies or medical treatments, we got

5:26

to rebrand virus. We got to come up with

5:28

a new word. Just like GLP-1 peptide,

5:31

that felt very safe. It was like, you're

5:33

not doing steroids, you're not on gear.

5:36

>> What's the lizard?

5:37

>> You're doing a peptide.

5:38

>> doing Gila monster venom.

5:40

>> venom. Exactly. Exactly.

5:41

>> doing Gila monster venom, which is some

5:44

Chinese peptide.

5:46

>> The Chinese peptide was a rough go, but

5:48

in general, I think the fact that it was

5:50

like just a peptide, it felt much more

5:53

welcoming as opposed to being in the

5:55

world of the steroids, the performance

5:57

enhancing drugs, and it became easier

5:59

for people to jump in. Oh, I got to

6:01

learn about peptides. Oh, there Oh,

6:03

there's naturally occurring peptides.

6:04

Cool, I'm into that. But virus has such

6:06

a bad connotation post Wuhan as well as

6:09

just everything. You You're never like,

6:11

"I got a virus." And someone says, "A

6:12

good one or a bad one?" Like, it's

6:14

always bad.

6:15

>> Yeah. It's never good.

6:16

>> Um but so they need they they need a new

6:17

brand for that if they're going to

6:19

commercialize that for sure. But we'll

6:21

see. Anyway,

6:23

uh there's a whole article in the New

6:24

York Times about it. This AI just

6:27

created viruses not found in nature. The

6:29

new study published Thursday in Science

6:31

goes well beyond duplicating viral

6:33

genes. Scientists at Stanford University

6:36

and Ark Institute taught AI to recognize

6:38

patterns in of DNA in nature and then

6:41

use that DNA to write recipes for

6:43

entirely new viruses.

6:45

>> Viruses dreamed up by AI do not pose a

6:46

threat to humans they are all similar to

6:49

a naturally occurring virus called Phi X

6:51

174,

6:53

which can only infect bacteria. Really

6:56

hardcore name for something that's not

6:58

that dangerous. Phi X 174 sounds like a

7:02

offspring of Elon Musk. Governments and

7:03

scientific organizations have been slow

7:05

to develop guardrails that could block

7:06

the creation of a deadly virus even as

7:09

the science races ahead. So I don't

7:11

think they'll be open-sourcing this

7:12

anytime soon. But there is other news.

7:15

>> Uh Mark Gurman's been reporting on

7:16

OpenAI's first consumer device. Uh it'll

7:18

reportedly look like a hockey puck-sized

7:21

donut.

7:21

>> Gurman? The Gurminator?

7:22

>> Oh, the Gurminator.

7:23

>> The Gurminator, yeah.

7:24

>> OpenAI's first consumer device will

7:26

reportedly look like a hockey puck-sized

7:28

donut and cost roughly $300 to $400. Uh

7:33

what a funny form factor.

7:34

>> Love hockey pucks.

7:35

>> Yeah.

7:36

>> Love donuts.

7:37

>> Okay.

7:37

>> So you're in.

7:38

>> So I I like where this is going.

7:39

>> There's also a rumor that it has

7:40

mechanical pieces on it, so I think it

7:43

can like undulate potentially. The The

7:44

speculation's all over the place.

7:46

According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman,

7:48

the Gurminator as you put it, uh the

7:50

battery-powered device is essentially a

7:51

portable smart speaker without a screen

7:54

designed to be carried around the house

7:55

or placed on a nightstand or kitchen

7:56

counter. It will include speakers and

7:58

microphones along with cameras and other

8:00

sensors that allow its AI to perceive

8:02

what's happening around it. The device

8:03

is intended to work much more uh like a

8:06

much more capable version of ChatGPT's

8:08

current voice mode learning about its

8:10

owner over time and using that context

8:12

to make conversations more personalized.

8:13

OpenAI is also making the hardware

8:16

itself feel more expressive. The device

8:18

will reportedly include lights and parts

8:20

that physically move as it responds uh

8:23

with the goal of making it feel more

8:24

alive than existing stationary smart

8:27

speakers from Amazon and Google. The

8:28

product being developed by Jony Ive's

8:31

design team is expected to arrive in

8:32

2027 and envisioned as the first in a

8:37

broader family of OpenAI hardware.

8:38

Long-term, the company reportedly hopes

8:40

to develop AI devices capable of taking

8:42

over some of the functions now handled

8:44

by smartphones. Jordan.

8:45

>> Feature request.

8:46

>> Yes.

8:46

>> Going flashbang.

8:47

>> Flashbang.

8:49

That'd be a good feature request.

8:51

>> Yeah, it says it has lights, it's got

8:53

sound. You should be able to use this as

8:55

a on-the-go flashbang.

8:57

>> Yeah.

8:58

>> Let's say you're going to hang out with

8:59

some friends.

9:00

>> Yeah.

9:00

>> You want to prank them a little bit when

9:02

you're when you're kind of coming in.

9:03

>> Yeah, I I do I I I I was reflecting on

9:06

uh the the the DeepMind story of uh you

9:09

know the departures there and the

9:11

question of, you know, how the models

9:13

are progressing versus the

9:14

commercialization of those models.

9:15

There's some real strong points, there's

9:17

some weaker points within the uh within

9:20

the rollout of uh Google's AI strategy.

9:23

And I was I was thinking about like what

9:25

happened to NotebookLM because that was

9:28

heralded as a very magical technology.

9:31

You would uh

9:32

you know, give it some sources as a

9:34

particular report uh and it would just

9:36

generate a podcast talking between two

9:39

different people uh much more

9:41

conversational. And a lot of people like

9:42

consuming information that way. So, you

9:45

could just go read a deep research

9:47

report on the history of, you know, how

9:50

uh bacteriophages work if you want to

9:52

get up to speed on that because you're

9:54

going to you're trying to understand

9:56

what's what the Arc Institute is working

9:57

on with these new viruses. Uh you could

10:00

go to Notebook LM and say, "Hey, uh why

10:02

don't you generate me a podcast of, you

10:05

know, two scientists explaining this at,

10:07

you know, uh the high school level and

10:09

then take it into college level."

10:11

>> Tyler in the YouTube chat says, "Nut

10:12

loves Notebook LM. Use it weekly."

10:15

>> Uses it weekly.

10:16

>> I always thought that I would have used

10:17

it when I was in college.

10:18

>> Yeah.

10:19

>> And I needed to, let's say, write a

10:22

paper on something and I wasn't super

10:24

prepared. I could say, "Generate me an

10:27

hour-long podcast about this set of

10:29

topics."

10:30

>> Yeah. And I'd listen to that and then I

10:31

could probably

10:32

>> Yeah.

10:32

>> rip the paper.

10:33

>> Yeah.

10:33

>> I I did that for a history exam. I

10:36

I it was like a vocab lesson and went

10:37

through

10:38

>> Okay.

10:39

>> Yeah, Middle Age history, I think.

10:40

>> Wait, oh, you used Notebook

10:41

[clears throat] LM?

10:42

>> Yeah, it generated podcast. So, I I

10:44

basically fed in a vocab list or like

10:46

dates and various things. Then I had it

10:48

>> Wait, and was it just a general podcast?

10:52

>> Uh it was really easy. I think I

10:54

probably aced it.

10:54

>> Wow.

10:56

>> There [music] we go.

11:00

He needs a better confidence monitor.

11:01

I'm a big fan of that new uh trend

11:04

that's like uh asking old people, like,

11:06

"How did you write a five-paragraph

11:08

essay without AI?" And then the answer

11:10

is like, "Buddy, we didn't even We We

11:12

wrote a five-paragraph essay without

11:13

even reading the book."

11:15

>> [laughter]

11:17

>> Cuz you just go to SparkNotes or

11:18

something. But, I was I was interested

11:20

in in the evolution of Notebook LM

11:22

because it's this like there's this

11:24

collapsing of capabilities where uh Sam

11:27

Altman was recently sort of dragged a

11:29

little bit for saying like he would use

11:32

chat GPT work to generate a podcast

11:35

about what's going on in his calendar

11:37

and the family life and stuff. People

11:38

are like, how about you just talk to

11:39

your kids? But

11:41

the the more interesting technical point

11:43

on that is that do you even need chat

11:45

GPT work to generate you that podcast or

11:48

will the voice mode and the memory

11:50

feature have enough context to just sit

11:54

there and talk to you like it's a

11:55

podcast on the fly.

11:57

>> Like live voice.

11:58

>> Yeah.

11:59

>> If you're trying to learn about a topic

12:00

for example.

12:01

>> Pretty good.

12:02

>> Is probably better than just generating

12:03

a podcast cuz a podcast assumes like

12:06

some certain understanding. Maybe it's

12:09

Maybe maybe it thinks you understand too

12:10

much too little. Whereas voice you can

12:12

be like go down this like

12:14

>> Exactly. Exactly. It's a choose your own

12:16

adventure. It's a It's an expert call.

12:18

It's uh instead of notebook LM, it's

12:20

Tegus LM something basically. I mean

12:23

you're talking to an expert and you can

12:25

just guide the conversation wherever you

12:27

go. So we'll be interesting to see where

12:30

this goes, what the reception is like.

12:33

I mean huge huge delta [clears throat]

12:36

divergence between like the the social

12:39

media pushback for chat GPT versus like

12:43

the App Store ratings. Like there's like

12:44

a billion people using it. A lot of

12:46

people just like the product and then

12:48

they'll be like someone dunking on it to

12:50

the tune of a million likes on

12:51

Instagram. And so what how do you

12:53

measure those two things when it comes

12:56

to an actual consumer product? If it's

12:57

delivering something good, if people are

12:59

like if the if the stated preference is

13:01

like I don't like AI, but the revealed

13:03

preference is like it's kind of nice to

13:04

have this thing around the house. It's

13:05

kind of useful.

13:07

Um interesting to see where it goes. The

13:08

launch of this device will be

13:11

very very interesting to see like how

13:13

things come together. Like you can see

13:16

the chat GPT work, chat GPT Codex, chat

13:19

GPT like coming together into one

13:21

product. But there's a world where this

13:23

product launches with voice mode and

13:25

it's not really capable of linking to a

13:28

cloud Codex instance and writing you

13:31

software and doing the more advanced

13:33

things that are required just to

13:35

accomplish some tasks. Like you can go

13:37

to chat GPT and ask it to pull down an

13:40

image from the internet, restyle it,

13:42

change it, but you can't really tell it

13:44

to do like 40 of those or like every day

13:48

forever do a whole host a whole

13:50

workflow, but you can in Codex and you

13:53

can talk to Codex, but it has to be

13:54

running on a computer and and and I

13:57

would hope that by the time this

13:59

launches there's

14:01

full like full context. Like I I was

14:03

doing some work in Codex and I had the

14:05

output and then I wanted to like

14:06

generate an image based on that and take

14:08

it on the go, but I wanted to be able to

14:10

close my laptop and not and still be

14:12

able to access it. So I had to like copy

14:14

the context window into chat GPT just

14:16

the normal app. So then I could like

14:18

access that information and continue to

14:20

transform it. Uh and that was something

14:23

that is like a very very temporary

14:24

thing. It feels like it's going to be

14:25

fixed in like a couple weeks, but

14:26

there's a whole bunch of these little

14:28

minor integration issues that probably

14:30

need to be fulfilled before this product

14:32

launches and delivers like the full the

14:35

full capability of what you can do

14:37

because so many things so many tasks

14:40

instead of just knowledge retrieval

14:42

require actually

14:44

firing up a browser, scraping it,

14:47

writing some code, downloading things,

14:49

you know, setting up an actual service

14:51

and and workflow as opposed to just

14:53

something that can be done within the

14:54

context window of a single LLM

14:56

interaction. Last top story, a New

14:59

Mexico judge has ordered Meta to pay

15:01

more than 900 million dollars and impose

15:04

new restrictions on how minors in the

15:06

state use Facebook and Instagram. This

15:09

is a continuation of the social media

15:11

addiction. If you're watching this clip

15:13

on Instagram, let us know in the

15:14

comments, are you addicted to TVPN reels

15:18

on Instagram?

15:20

It's not our fault. Apparently it's

15:21

apparently it's Facebook's fault. If If

15:23

we If we got you hooked on this stuff.

15:25

The ruling requires Meta to establish a

15:28

$567

15:30

million fund aimed at addressing harms

15:33

linked to its platforms on top of a $375

15:37

million

15:38

in civil penalties previously awarded by

15:40

a jury. So, they're up 900 million.

15:42

They're very close to a billion dollars,

15:44

and the numbers are going to get bigger

15:45

from here.

15:45

>> Yeah.

15:46

>> At least At least they're going to try.

15:48

>> Okay. So, last time we really covered

15:50

something from this ongoing saga, there

15:53

was a verdict on March 25th. A Los

15:57

Angeles jury found Meta and

15:59

Google/YouTube negligent for designing

16:01

platforms harmful to young people.

16:04

A woman who said she became addicted to

16:05

social media as a child was awarded 6

16:07

million, 4.2 million against Meta, and

16:09

1.8 million against Google. And And

16:11

again, at the time, we had this a lawyer

16:14

on who was giving his opinion. He was

16:15

like, "This is just the start." And

16:17

we're like,

16:17

>> I was like, "No way."

16:18

>> The jury has has has a verdict.

16:21

>> Yeah.

16:22

>> To say, you know, talking to the biggest

16:24

companies in the world, you must pay $6

16:26

million,

16:27

right? And it's like this tiny amount,

16:29

but it was to one person, right? And so,

16:30

you can imagine as these cases evolve,

16:33

um this this new one is in New Mexico.

16:36

>> not the biggest state in the union. It's

16:38

not the

16:38

>> But there was also one in

16:39

uh in May 2026, so just a couple months

16:42

ago, for 9 million

16:44

uh to a school district in Kentucky.

16:46

>> Yeah.

16:47

>> Same sort of issue. Uh the lawsuit

16:49

accuses Instagram of deliberately using

16:51

addictive features that contributed to

16:54

anxiety, depression, self-harm, and

16:55

other problems among students, forcing

16:57

schools to spend more on mental health

17:00

services. The district had sought more

17:02

than 60 million, and I guess the total

17:04

payout was 27 million because it was

17:06

split between YouTube and TikTok and

17:09

Snap.

17:10

Um And in that case, there was no

17:11

admission of liability and no required

17:13

product changes. So, I think it's time

17:15

to start thinking about what the the

17:18

sort of battle that social media has

17:20

ahead of it kind of in in cigarette

17:22

terms. Tell us about uh

17:24

>> Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement?

17:26

>> Yeah, exactly.

17:27

>> So, the the tobacco companies

17:30

wound up getting sued individually uh

17:33

initially and there was there were a

17:35

whole bunch of court hearings very

17:36

similar to the Senator we sell ads

17:38

moments. Um

17:39

uh but uh more focused on the

17:42

cancer-causing nature of cigarettes. And

17:45

the question was like

17:47

who is ultimately being harmed

17:49

economically? And you would think it's

17:51

obvious. Uh the person that saw an ad

17:55

that made smoking look cool. They picked

17:57

up a pack of cigarettes. They started

17:59

smoking and then they got cancer and

18:02

their life was cut short. They are the

18:04

victim. They should be paid by the

18:07

tobacco company. That's what would be

18:09

very logical. Uh that's not what

18:11

happened. In fact, the Tobacco Master

18:13

Settlement Agreement uh landed in 1998

18:17

and it was an agreement between all of

18:18

the major tobacco companies. There's

18:20

more nuance to this. One of them broke

18:21

loose and like testified against the

18:23

others. It's crazy story. But that's for

18:25

another time. Uh in 46 states

18:27

>> I'm the good cigarette company.

18:29

>> Basically, yeah. And so they don't have

18:31

to pay. They're not part of the

18:32

settlement so they don't have to pay

18:34

because they basically snitched on all

18:36

the others. It's crazy.

18:37

>> Are they still in business cigarette

18:39

company?

18:39

>> They're doing great.

18:40

>> Who are they?

18:40

>> Look at Victor.

18:41

>> I've never heard of it.

18:42

>> Yeah. Uh

18:43

>> Last name Victor?

18:45

>> Yeah, they were literally the first

18:46

>> They won. Yeah. There's more nuance to

18:48

it than that. But uh but that's like one

18:50

way to tell a story. Anyway, uh so a

18:52

bunch of the big tobacco companies

18:54

versus uh 46 of the United of the US

18:57

states, the District of Columbia, and

18:58

several territories. The states agreed

19:00

to end major lawsuits against the

19:02

tobacco companies. So the same thing was

19:03

happening where all the different states

19:05

were suing and they were suing because

19:08

the negative externality of cigarettes

19:11

causing cancer was driving up medical

19:13

bills in the state. So, the states have

19:15

health care and they assume, "Hey, okay,

19:17

we're going to spend this much on

19:18

doctors, this much on radiology, this

19:21

much on x-ray equipment." And then all

19:23

of a sudden they're starting to look at

19:24

their populations and saying like,

19:26

"Wait, everyone's getting lung cancer.

19:28

We're not equipped to deal with lung

19:29

cancer. We need to hire a way more

19:31

oncologist and cancer doctors who

19:33

specialize in lung cancer. We need

19:34

equipment. We need drugs that treat lung

19:36

cancer. We There's a whole bunch of

19:38

other things that we have to spend money

19:39

on." And so, you got to pay us because

19:41

you, the tobacco company, are

19:42

responsible for us running out of money

19:45

for our health care system. And so, that

19:47

was the nature of these like the battles

19:49

between the states and the big tobacco

19:51

companies. It You would think it would

19:53

be the individuals who got the cancer.

19:55

That would be very logical, but that's

19:56

not actually the structure of this deal.

19:58

And so,

19:59

in return, uh all the states said, "Hey,

20:01

we'll drop all those lawsuits. You won't

20:03

have to We won't be nickeling nickeling

20:05

diming you across every single state.

20:07

Instead,

20:09

the the companies will uh make large

20:11

payments uh and follow new limits on

20:13

advertising and business practices. So,

20:16

the end result, the headline number is

20:17

206 billion, uh which feels like small

20:21

relative to today's standards of like

20:24

hyperscalers and social media. Facebook

20:26

generates roughly 200 billion in revenue

20:29

every year. Although, if they got hit

20:30

with a 200 billion-dollar fine, that

20:32

would be existential. But, uh

20:34

what happened with the master settlement

20:36

agreement with the tobacco companies was

20:37

that um there wasn't just one fixed

20:39

payment. Instead, they created a system

20:40

of annual payments that continue

20:43

indefinitely. They will actually have to

20:45

pay forever as long as they are in

20:46

business. They have like effectively a

20:48

special tax paid to them. And the amount

20:51

changes based on cigarette sales,

20:52

inflation, market share, and other

20:54

other adjustments. So, if cigarette sale

20:57

sales fall, the total payments usually

20:59

fall. And that's a big uh reason why

21:01

there's like a shift to non-cigarette

21:04

products.

21:05

>> Well, and that just naturally makes

21:07

sense. If less people are buying

21:09

cigarettes, less people are going to

21:10

have health issues down the

21:11

>> Exactly. Exactly. So

21:12

>> Yeah, so so I so I brought it up because

21:14

I think that we could be heading in that

21:16

direction with social media.

21:17

>> There's also a fascinating dynamic

21:19

because these states now have an

21:22

indefinite revenue stream that will be

21:24

paid to them. And you can model that out

21:26

financially and you can financialize it

21:28

and a lot of people have. And so

21:30

investment firms and banks and and

21:32

financial institutions have come in and

21:34

said, "Okay, you are the state of

21:37

New

21:37

New Mexico, for example, and you are

21:39

expected to get

21:41

300 million from big tobacco this year

21:44

and then next year we think it'll be 297

21:46

and then 298 and then and then it'll go

21:48

down and we can model that out and we

21:51

can just give you $4 million right now

21:53

in exchange for that revenue stream or a

21:55

piece of that revenue stream and then

21:57

those states can take that lump sum of

21:59

cash and build a new bridge or something

22:01

like that, whatever they need to

22:02

whatever they need to do. So there's

22:03

been a lot of financialization

22:05

>> on top of it. Each tobacco company pays

22:06

a share of the total amount. Its share

22:08

depends mainly on the share of cigarette

22:09

sales among companies that participate

22:11

in the MSA. The settlement then divides

22:13

the money among states using fixed

22:16

allocation percentages. Some states

22:18

later borrowed against these future

22:19

payments by issuing bonds backed by MSA

22:21

revenue. The MSA also limits tobacco

22:23

advertising and marketing, especially

22:25

marketing that could reach children. In

22:27

simple terms, the agreement created a

22:29

permanent system that major tobacco

22:31

companies received protection from many

22:33

state lawsuits while states received

22:35

continuing payments and new enforcement

22:36

powers. The result is not just a legal

22:39

settlement. It created this long-term

22:41

financial and regulatory structure built

22:43

around cigarette sales. And it's now the

22:46

10-year anniversary of starting Lucy.

22:48

>> 2016, August 8th technically was the

22:50

day.

22:51

>> New regulation.

22:52

>> You know what I'm going to hit.

22:54

>> Overnight success.

22:55

>> Yeah, for sure.

22:56

>> The exact opposite, slaving away for

22:59

years in obscurity.

23:00

>> But very very interesting very very

23:03

interesting

23:04

uh in

23:05

>> to have operated in for as long as we

23:07

have.

23:07

>> SemiAnalysis

23:09

chimed in on the deep not deep mind

23:12

news. Not just chimed in.

23:14

>> I think the term is posterized.

23:16

>> Grave digging?

23:16

>> No, not a grave dancing.

23:18

>> No, they're

23:19

>> Grave digging. They're digging the

23:20

grave.

23:21

>> They're digging [laughter] for for

23:22

DeepMind.

23:23

>> And then they're And then they're

23:24

dancing on it at the end.

23:25

>> Uh anyway, SemiAnalysis says, "For all

23:27

intents and purposes, we believe

23:28

DeepMind is no longer a frontier lab due

23:30

to large numbers of departures from

23:31

their RL teams and poor compute

23:33

allocation. Google will continue

23:35

continue meandering on and releasing

23:38

models, but their odds of ever reaching

23:40

state-of-the-art again have dropped to

23:42

zero."

23:43

>> [laughter]

23:43

>> Oh.

23:44

Damn it. Google is now simply unable to

23:47

retain top AI talent. Again, this is

23:49

what I was saying the day that the news

23:50

broke. It's like researchers want to

23:53

work with great researchers, right? And

23:56

so, uh the more talent density you have,

23:59

the easier it is to recruit. Yeah, Noam

24:02

leaving

24:03

>> Yep.

24:03

>> earlier was like a canary in the coal

24:05

mine. Obviously, these are not the

24:07

actions of people excited about Gemini 4

24:09

Pro.

24:10

>> Mhm.

24:10

>> Uh Jeff, Sanjay, Quoc, and Oriol are

24:13

just the latest in a long string of

24:14

high-profile departures from DeepMind.

24:17

Jeff [screaming] Dean

24:19

Jeff Dean is the undisputed goat of

24:20

Google engineering, co-founded Google

24:22

Brain, and started the TPU program.

24:24

Google, on the other hand, decided it

24:25

was totally worth it to sell enormous

24:27

amounts of compute to Gemini's fiercest

24:29

competitors on long-term contracts

24:31

without any hope of ever returning it to

24:33

DeepMind.

24:34

More than 20% of total TPU ship-

24:36

shipments from

24:37

uh third quarter of '26 to fourth

24:39

quarter of '27 are being sold directly

24:41

to Anthropic.

24:42

>> Wow.

24:43

>> The issue with Google was not Jeff Dean,

24:44

nor nor Noam Shazeer, but rather their

24:46

extremely bureaucratic, painfully slow,

24:48

and strategically timid culture. Google

24:51

will join the ranks of other legendary

24:53

tech giants like IBM and Intel to give

24:55

up on the harder thing

24:56

>> So aggressive.

24:57

>> and the thing that will make you more

24:59

money. Becomes demoralizing as many of

25:01

the great technology leads have left.

25:03

And take him taking a victory lap. He

25:06

wrote a

25:08

piece on July 21st. Google is a secular

25:11

short kind of getting at a lot of these

25:14

issues. So

25:15

>> Brutal brutal stuff. This is insane.

25:17

On the other side GCP is working. GCP is

25:20

basically a money printing machine. No

25:21

wonder Google executives are choosing

25:23

GCP over Gemini. So although EBIT

25:26

margins for these system sales are

25:27

slightly lower than core cloud margins

25:30

in the low 30% range, we still expect

25:32

total GCP to deliver mid to high 30s

25:35

EBIT margins going forward. How

25:37

investors decide to capitalize the

25:38

current TPU backlog and any large future

25:42

sales is an open question. However,

25:43

given the strong compute demand from the

25:45

labs we expect more multi-gigawatt deals

25:47

to be announced soon adding to this

25:49

backlog. In all we estimate that over

25:52

250 billion additional TPU bookings

25:54

could be added to GCP RPO in the next

25:56

coming quarters from semi analysis. Very

25:59

interesting. I mean there there is like

26:00

a like a positive spin on this which is

26:02

like they seem to be really good at chip

26:04

development, really good at cloud like

26:06

focus where you're where it's working

26:08

and you don't have any tensions there

26:10

because you have excellent teams and

26:12

then you have the ability to underwrite

26:15

that build out with the cash machine

26:17

that is Google search and

26:20

and YouTube and their ads products and

26:24

um

26:24

and having more of this like barbell

26:26

approach as opposed to playing in like

26:27

the middle race is maybe the maybe

26:30

ultimately the right thing to do. There

26:31

are plenty of hyperscalers that have

26:33

lived that and are doing very well on

26:35

the back of it. Like Microsoft Amazon

26:37

for example, they've been partners to

26:38

labs at various points and and are very

26:41

good at building data centers, very good

26:43

at at scaling and have not tried to

26:46

really

26:48

go on a crazy poaching race and

26:50

amass the the the the dream team and you

26:53

know, they've been rewarded for it. So,

26:55

>> Yeah. Yeah. Still wild series of events.

26:58

They obviously had effectively a version

27:00

of ChatGPT internally. They didn't ship

27:02

it. Tibo, who's now running chat codex,

27:06

>> Yeah.

27:06

>> was there working on that product, which

27:08

is really wild. It just seems like

27:10

Google leadership has a very different

27:11

idea of like where value accrues in AI

27:14

than like Demis or like the other labs,

27:16

right? It's like it's not actually like

27:17

the model itself.

27:18

>> Yeah.

27:19

>> It's it's the the like infrastructure,

27:21

GPUs, cloud business.

27:23

>> It's interesting cuz you can run back

27:24

the old Demis quote about like he went

27:26

when he was selling DeepMind, he talked

27:27

to Mark Zuckerberg and he's like, "What

27:29

are you excited about in the future? Are

27:30

you excited about AI?" And Mark

27:32

Zuckerberg apparently, according to this

27:33

exchange that Sebastian Mallaby reported

27:35

on, Mark Zuckerberg says, "Oh, yeah, I'm

27:37

super excited about AI." And then Demis

27:39

is like, "I'm going to test this guy.

27:40

I'm going to see if he's a true

27:41

believer.

27:42

What do you think about VR?" And Zuck's

27:44

like, "Oh, VR is like equivalently as

27:47

big." And then Demis is like, "No."

27:49

>> said that. He was just equivalently as

27:51

excited.

27:51

>> Yeah, yeah, excited. And he was excited

27:53

about a few other things. And Demis was

27:55

like, "I want to be with someone who's

27:56

like all in on AI as a fundamentally

27:59

different technology, not a normal

28:01

technology, not like VR, not like new

28:04

devices, not like electric cars, not

28:06

like, you know, satellites in space. It

28:08

needs to be considered as a completely

28:10

separate development, a completely

28:13

separate technology."

28:14

>> Yeah, like I I don't know if if Sundar

28:15

like believes in RSI. It seems like he

28:17

doesn't think that that's like really

28:19

going to

28:19

>> So, the point is that Demis should have

28:20

probed more and said like, "Well, how

28:22

excited are you about cloud?

28:26

How excited are you about

28:28

AI overviews? And if Sundar it wasn't

28:31

Sundar back then, but if Google was

28:33

like, "Oh, yeah, we're we're

28:34

equivalently excited about cloud

28:37

infrastructure as ASI, then that should

28:41

have been Demis's

28:43

moment to be like, "Ah, maybe I

28:44

shouldn't only

28:45

>> The only thing is there's a world where

28:46

he's actually so RSI pilled that he's

28:49

thinking, "Okay, it's over for us. I

28:50

need to back up the Brinks truck and

28:52

help help Anthropic, right?" Putting

28:54

together this like, you know, almost a

28:56

quarter of a trillion dollar financing

28:59

package.

29:00

>> Yeah.

29:00

>> Um and variety of data center guarantees

29:04

to enable uh Anthropic to scale up even

29:07

though they don't have, you know, really

29:09

uh access to the debt markets in the way

29:11

that Google does. Google's ownership in

29:13

Anthropic is capped at 15%.

29:15

>> They I believe have roughly 14%.

29:19

>> Weird. Why Wait, well, how's it capped?

29:21

>> Anthropic just didn't want

29:22

>> Oh, we don't want you to have 90%.

29:23

>> don't have any voting rights. They don't

29:25

don't even They're not even a board

29:26

observer. They don't have a board seat.

29:28

They basically are just a purely

29:30

financial backer.

29:31

>> branding mogul's Miami Beach home lists

29:34

for $68.5 million.

29:38

Branding mogul Nick Woodhouse was sail

29:41

was sailing around Miami for his

29:43

birthday in 2019 when he realized that

29:45

he found his new home. Turning to his

29:46

wife, uh Jocelyn Woodhouse, the

29:49

Canadian-born businessman said, "We have

29:51

to live here." It wasn't long after

29:53

relocating from New York in 2020 that

29:56

the couple, then living in a condo on

29:59

Sunny Isles Beach, Florida, saw a

30:01

waterfront lot on a guard-gated La Gorce

30:05

Island. Is that how you pronounce it? La

30:07

Gorce-e? I don't know. Island in Miami

30:09

Beach from a friend's boat. The property

30:11

had the foundation of a house that was

30:13

just starting to be built. The

30:14

Woodhouses purchased the partially built

30:17

home for $17 million in 2021 and

30:19

completed construction of the roughly

30:21

8,800 square-foot seven-bedroom

30:24

contemporary house around 2023. It's a

30:27

0.4-acre estate and they're selling it

30:29

for 68.5

30:31

because they're building another home

30:32

nearby. Um Nick is the former president

30:34

and chief marketing officer of Authentic

30:36

Brands Group, and that's why I wanted to

30:38

talk about this cuz Authentic Brands is

30:39

a very fascinating company. Uh Tyler,

30:41

you have something here?

30:42

>> Yeah, so it's pronounced Legor.

30:44

>> Legor.

30:45

>> Thank you.

30:46

>> Legor. Well, Authentic Brands Group is a

30:49

very interesting lifestyle platform, I

30:52

guess. I don't know exactly what you

30:54

would call it, but

30:55

>> They have some They have some truly tier

30:57

one assets.

30:59

>> They own more than 50 consumer brands as

31:01

well as likenesses and estates of

31:03

celebrities including Muhammad Ali,

31:06

Elvis Presley, and Marilyn Monroe. But,

31:08

what stuck out to you?

31:09

>> at the top. Cream of the crop. They own

31:12

Tapout.

31:13

>> They do.

31:14

>> brand.

31:14

>> Tapout tees.

31:16

>> And if you guys ever run into John on

31:17

the weekends, he's almost certainly head

31:20

to toe Tapout.

31:21

>> one of their first purchases. Silver

31:23

Star and Tapout. In January 2011, they

31:27

acquired the rights to the likeness of

31:28

Marilyn Monroe. So, if you see Marilyn

31:30

Monroe on a t-shirt, Authentic Brands is

31:33

getting a check.

31:34

>> UCA, the surf brand. They own Neiman

31:36

Marcus. They own Prince. They own

31:39

>> Brooks Brothers.

31:40

>> Good, man. They own DC Shoes.

31:42

>> Yeah.

31:43

>> Tyler, I know I know you're still You're

31:45

pretty much head to toe Volcom at all

31:47

times. Volcom, maybe some Billabong

31:49

thrown in there. Well, they also own

31:50

Billabong.

31:51

>> Anyway, Nick is the former president and

31:53

chief marketing officer of Authentic

31:54

Brands Group, a licensing and managing

31:56

company that works with companies such

31:58

as Reebok, Champion, and Brooks

31:59

Brothers.

32:00

>> T Z H says ABG is a graveyard for iconic

32:03

brands.

32:04

>> It's the bending spoons of brands.

32:06

>> No, it really is. I mean, it it's

32:07

somewhat sad because a lot of these

32:09

brands are so so iconic and with the

32:12

right sort of management and investment,

32:14

they they would be uh back to their

32:16

former glory. I the a lot of the surf

32:19

brands and the skate brands are

32:21

a little sentimental for me just because

32:23

I grew up watching so much of the

32:25

content that those brands put out and

32:27

and following the different uh athletes

32:30

uh on their teams. Those industries have

32:32

just been impacted surfing most

32:34

aggressively just because kids that

32:37

don't live by the ocean now, they don't

32:39

really care about surfing.

32:40

>> Yeah.

32:41

>> They care about Chrome Hearts.

32:42

>> Mhm.

32:43

>> And so

32:44

>> Do you think the surfing industry needs

32:45

a federal backstop?

32:46

>> I would push for one, certainly.

32:48

>> Yeah.

32:48

>> Yeah.

32:49

>> Couple of couple billion dollars from

32:50

the treasury directly to

32:52

get Volcom

32:53

>> Quiksilver, Billabong

32:54

>> Quiksilver back

32:56

back to the top.

32:57

>> Roxy, we're on to something here. This

32:58

is our new platform.

32:59

>> I think so. Okay.

33:00

>> We'll be back in the UltraDumb. We're

33:02

going to have a lot of coverage this

33:03

weekend, too. Around

33:05

>> You you may have been seeing some of our

33:06

Getty images.

33:07

>> Yeah.

33:08

>> You might be seeing some more.

33:09

>> Yeah, we're working on it.

33:10

>> We'll see.

33:11

>> But, have a great weekend.

33:12

>> We'll see you Monday.

33:13

>> See you Monday. Leave us five stars on

33:14

Apple Podcast and Spotify. Sign up for

33:16

our newsletter at the 5pm.com. Goodbye.

Interactive Summary

The video covers several key topics: the development of AI-designed viruses that target bacteria (not humans) by Stanford and Arc Institute, sparking discussions on biosecurity and biotech acceleration; the rumored first consumer device from OpenAI, a screenless, interactive smart speaker resembling a hockey puck-sized donut, expected in 2027; a deep dive into Google's NotebookLM and the future of AI-driven conversational learning; a significant legal ruling in New Mexico ordering Meta to pay over $900 million for social media addiction, drawing parallels to the 1998 Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement; and a critical analysis by SemiAnalysis on DeepMind's decline as a frontier lab due to talent departures and Google's compute allocation strategy, suggesting Google's focus has shifted to cloud infrastructure. Lastly, the discussion touches on Nick Woodhouse, formerly of Authentic Brands Group, and the company's strategy of acquiring and managing numerous iconic consumer brands and celebrity likenesses.

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