just so you know everything is archived

by the White House right now so

everything we say is recorded David

freeberg is a jam stop you're being

recorded good I I hope this is

discoverable there white house I just

want you to know that stupid also he did

not pay his taxes in

2016 don't you really want me to start

with you you want me to start you want

me to put some sh the archives oh my God

here let me put some sh archives for you

going to be my pets I think you need to

shut the up is what you need to do sorry

White House I'm going to be my pants he

did he also has some unpaid parking

tickets from

2021 you want me to start with

you let your winners

[Music]

ride

David and instead we open source it to

the fans and they've just gone

[Music]

crazy all right everybody welcome back

to the number one podcast in the world

with me again today Jam paaa your

chairman dictator David freeberg our

sulan of Science and two guests uh

obviously Ben Shapiro very famous for

having the number two podcast in the

world how are you Ben uh I'm I'm doing

I'm doing great I'm just honored to be

here you know yes more work to do you

could exceed all in in the rankings no

we we we always judge ourselves Ben on

three things in the rankings when we

look at how we're doing what we see is

Ben

Shapiro prayer from the Bible okay the

New Testament I don't think you've got

it yet you you have the Old Testament

but you haven't gotten the new you

haven't gotten the sequel and then

number

three murder also with us from the White

House yeah welcome to Allin where we

have a live feed into the White House

today my good friend Antonio graas is

here he uh is taking I guess you're

taking would it be safe to say a Hiatus

or you're from Valor to do a little Tour

of Duty uh in our government working on

doge is is that the way to say it I'm

still doing my day job too man this is

this is this is a 7-Day a week 68 hour

day job because I'm uh I'm trying to do

both I've got some great partners are

covering for me and that my firm has

been tremendous and in um in allowing me

to do this but no I'm still trying to do

both was it public prior to this week

Antonio that you were doing this role

did you announce it anywhere was I

didn't announce it were no that the New

York Times had read a story about um me

going to say you know which is s New

York time style not not right but I was

I had been there yeah I was out Woodland

Maryland 40% correct yeah close enough

close enough for hand grenades close

enough I'm sure they had no agenda

Antonio how does it how does it work so

when you

volunteered do is it that you and Elon

and Steve just kind of figure out let's

put a senior person at every part of the

administration where there's real

opportunity why did you end up at SSA

versus someplace else interesting

question and by the way it's great to

see you guys man thanks for having me on

I can use your last you're like you're

really making me laugh thank you good to

see thank you um suit looks great by the

way yeah oh thank Youk when do you have

to return it the rental is to at the end

of the week okay um so yeah know what

happened was I had actually volunteered

to go to the VA because that's kind of

as you guys know close to my heart and

um Elon said to me look great you can do

that next but we go to essay first and

and see what's going on there because

it's you know the biggest we have and

and see what you find in fraud Wass and

abuse and so of course I said sure I'll

do that and I ended up out in Woodland

Maryland with the good people at the SSA

the soci administration and that that's

where I started that's how that's how

all this started for me and so do you

Antonio go in there with a doge engineer

as your kind of sidekick per se or you

just go there solo and you show up and

like like what happens day one when you

walk in into the place what do you do so

I brought with me um two great

professionals uh you know John and and

pton from uh from Valor um one of them

an engineer the other one I'd say a

finance ninja both these guys are ninjas

and there was already a team there

actually that was working with some

great engineers and one senior person uh

Scott cter who's from actually worked at

Lone p and start his own fund and then

had come here as a volunteer as well so

they were already doing some work

actually particularly on on the

enumeration part of the part of the

system so that the system that you have

numbers the whole cleaning up the

database the numbers they had already

started that project when I got there

and what is the mandate as given to you

you know as part of Doge fraad waste and

abuse I mean exactly what you know what

the what Bill Clinton talked about what

Barack Obama talked about what all

presidents but maybe President Biden

talked about uh going back in time it

was go figure out how to save some money

man the system is going bankrupt it's

going to be bankrupt 2037 the country

overall as you guys know and talked

about many times is on its way toward

bankruptcy want do something and go go

figure out we can save money and go find

the fraud and that's what we did you

know let's get to it you uh spoke at a

rally uh I think it was on

Sunday and you pulled up a chart here is

that chart maybe you could explain to

the American people here what this chart

shows yeah so if if I might just step

back and tell you how I got it because I

think it's important you know we map the

way we work you guys know we're very

operational Balor I've worked with all

you guys various times and what we do is

we map the entire system from beginning

to end so we we map the system from

enumeration so I get your number all the

way to the end went to the offices and

saw the office offices operate and in

that process um one of our Engineers Pon

I mentioned he found U the data so we're

looking at all the data numeration how

it works what you know what's going on

the typical stuff you'd look at and he

found this data uh called enumeration

Beyond entry right so that is the that's

and it it had this giant Ram to it you

can see their Baseline was kind of you

know 3 400,000 people all the way up 2.1

million people and that just jumped out

at us and we're like what's that and so

we dug into it and that's how this

started and so what that's showing is

social security numbers that were issued

to non-american Citizens or non-citizens

am I correct that that's the number

we're looking at so these are

noncitizens getting Security numbers and

for people who don't know just like a

little bit of background on the Social

Security

System we do this this is not abnormal

for us to give Social Security numbers

this is part of the process uh that the

government does the Social Security

number was created in 1936 for citizens

to track their earnings and in the '90s

we started giving them to non-citizens

who were authorized to work in the US so

that we could collect taxes from them

and so if you're not a citizen and

you're a green card holder which some

people in this program I think have been

you have to have a Social Security

number in order to work and you pay into

Social Security and Medicare uh just

like you as Citizens and then eventually

I think you would qualify for those over

some period of time you can also get a

Social Security number if you're a legal

immigrant into the United States on a

Visa so for example when I first came to

the United States 25 years ago on a TN

Visa I was able to get my Social

Security number because I had a valid

visa to be in the United States okay

yeah so we have social security numbers

being given to non-citizens that is not

controversial but there's something

controversial about this chart Antonio

tell us what that is so I I think you

look at the chart you'll see there's it

starts to like called 300,000 or so this

is during the covid period yeah coming

right out of it so we the 21 coming

right out of Co right so if you go back

even a couple years in 19 you'll see

that um it's about 400,000 yeah exactly

right there so um what happened was this

program was designed for so people

you're talking about you know people

that got visas this is at numeration

Beyond entries this after you're in um

there are some people in here that have

h-1bs screen cards Etc and the way we

thought about this was that's the

Baseline number that's the 3 to 400,000

a year you see and that should be

happened that's like you know there are

programs for Afghans example the

translators that came in after the war

right the people who brought it they

would be in these kinds of programs and

so the Baseline number and by the

program goes back this particular

program goes back all the way to 17 and

had legitimate use which was the kind of

people we talking about people that we

want to let in um like The CARE program

I'll make an example which are the

Afghans they would be in this number and

so what what jumped out of this wasn't

that this is here because it has

legitimate use it's that it's the growth

why did it grow this fast and what

happened that that's what we dug into

have you figured that out yet is it

because of like a covid overhang the the

one criticism I did see of the chart

that I wanted to bring up with you is

hey people want to see the 10 years 20

years before this what would we see if

we we were Look Backwards a little bit

and do you have some theories and is the

covid overhang Theory valid or is this

just Biden opened the Border as we saw

you know especially like in maybe it was

that third year of his term the 2023

year and this is the overhang of the

2023 surge what are your theories well

the answer is no categor no because the

program really started it it started in

2017 so they probably worked on it

before that right a few takes a few

years to put these things into place

they worked at it my guess is you know

back during the B Administration it

actually became active in 17 you see a

few numbers in 18 and it starts to get a

little bigger in 19 and 20 right so that

that's how we get this Baseline number

of 1920 that's where we're using that

data here um so you there isn't I can't

go back 20 years it doesn't exist and

then when we dug into it what we found

was the vast majority of the growth uh

was related to Asylum programs and PE Le

and people that came in on on ntas this

noticed to appear into the country

either at the border at the airports

mostly at the border and then we dug

further into it excuse me dug further

into it we found that there

were this is about 5.4 million people

total there were about 1.2 million

people that the status was marked as

unknown and about 1.2 million people

that were marked as general parole and

they should have markings of you know

what the program is they're under

because if you if you claim Asylum

you're supposed to claim like a real

fear I'm going to be tortured by my

country you know something's bad is

going to happen me so why I can't go

home what we find here is that a

legitimate program was in the word I use

abused it the the the requirements were

like super opened so that more people

come through and the example I'll give

you you know I have here actually the

form this the form used to be going back

in time a four-page form that the

officer have to fill out in the field

and the person that was claiming Sol had

to actually prove that they were had a

really credible fear of being you know

murdered tortured by their government

that's something B them that's that's

what SS for it turned into a form which

I can't give you but I'm going to show

you here you can if you zoom in on it it

has four questions that's it and the

four questions are super leading I'll

just read the um you know the like one

of the important ones here right so do

you have any reason for a concern about

being returned to your home country or

being removed from the United States I

mean could that be more

leading right what they did is they open

they just open the aperture on these

programs dramatically so they allowed

people that were illegal to the border

to come in Legally and as we've dug

further into it we found this took us so

you guys know me man I do like I'm a

very methodical lean business process

mapper and we went all the way to the

Border literally to Brownsville and

Laredo to ask what happened we couldn't

find the data on what these these

unknown categories were and it turns out

that when the the the folks the Border

who were great by the way um they they

really tried hard and they suffered a

lot in this this is a bit of this is a

human strategy I we talked about they

were were giving people at times notices

to appear this is the the NTA and what

that allows you to do is come in the

country and then you're you're schedule

a court date which is like six years out

so now you're in the country with some

quasi legal status you're waiting for

your court date and while you're waiting

for your court date which could be six

six years out is the average by the way

could be longer than that you're waiting

for your court date they uh you could

fill out a Sil application so without

even interview just an application by

filing a form once application's in you

can um file another form 765 to get a

work authorization once you get that you

get a 766 which is the authorization and

we automatically send you a soci card in

the mail no interview at all that that's

that's the that is the majority of the

growth you see in these numbers is there

any ID verification along the way

Antonio like do we know that there are

no duplications Happening by validating

that one individual is getting one

social security number at any point in

this process so it's a great question um

no the answer is there's no real

verification so you can you one of the

things we found we looked at this was

the the people that that some people

showed IDs some people didn't and one of

the things these would be IDs Antonio

from their home country this would be a

Venezuelan driver's license or something

yeah I mean it could be a passport a

driver's license but here's what really

sort of tipped us off and disturbed us

when we looked at the the birth cific

data that was present at the border the

number one birth date was was 1 and it

was four times more likely to be born on

1 one than any other uh day of the year

now we all know this is so they just hit

enter on that part the or they had they

could come they Al could come with

nothing we take Biometrics of people at

the border do we take like an iris scan

fingerprints and all that stuff this is

one of the issues I mean we do have

photos of of people uh we found that 23%

of the records looked at did not have

fingerprints and look the the folks at

the border were um overwhelmed and we're

not sure why this happened I will tell

you guys just to understand I went down

there both border patrol and Border

Protection told me they had the highest

suicide rates of all time during the

surge okay over 70 over 70 of these

agents committed suicide in this period

it's truly tragic because they knew it

was going on given the fact that that

all this has

happened is the Trump Administration

going to try to claim the social

security numbers back invalidate them

what would be the proper action or is it

too late are they already sort of in the

system and now you can't anything about

it so Ben it's a great question right

and the the the first question was what

are they doing I mean you know like

where are these people where are they

how are they and we've gone through a

whole process of mapping this so we

mapped it through to the benefit

programs we found uh in the benefit

programs that every benefit we looked at

was being accessed by these people you

know 1.3 million of them are on Medicaid

right now today and by the way it's just

ramping just starting just to give you a

point and then out of curiosity I woke

up at night like 2: in the morning I I

couldn't sleep mind was R on this I sent

the Andre a notes saying hey guys let's

just look at the the public voter roles

who we find in some in some friendly

States and we looked at the voter roles

and we found that thousands of them

registered to vote in a handful of

states and then we went further with

those friendly States and found that the

many of those people had actually voted

it was shocking to us and if I hadn't

seen it with my own eyes I wouldn't

believed it and so now the question

we're asking ourselves is what do we do

we've referred some to prosecution

that's ongoing right now you know we're

thinking through how to do it and the

reality is they have various kinds of

status and it's a very detailed analysis

legally they working through right now

about how to deal with it so thousands

of those people registered to vote Yes

in the election which is a federal crime

by the way well yeah I mean the

interesting thing is like the Heritage

Foundation has a very good project you

know it's obviously right leaning where

they're studying all cases of fraud I

looked at it before we're here there's

only been 24 cases since 2003 of

somebody who's a non-citizen trying to

vote now those are people caught so this

would be incredibly dramatic if it was

even a thousand people oh no Jason it's

more than a thousand I've I've seen it

um I've seen the data myself and it's

more than a thousand in just a couple of

States I mean it is shockingly bad and

this is the tip of the iceberg guys it's

the tip of the iceberg this doesn't

include the 7.8 million people that ice

has that have come in illegally and know

are here and all the people that came

illegally we don't know are here I mean

this is not a political issue I want to

be really clear about this about America

let's just take one step back because I

just want you to repeat this so because

I think it's important and we may have

just run over it a little too quickly

when you get a Social Security number

what you're saying is there's all of

these important Downstream consequences

one of the downstream consequences is

you could show up register to vote and

that's an illegitimate action that's

breaking federal law that's one but the

second is that without knowing who this

person is they can start to absorb

resources that could have otherwise gone

to an American I guess that's like a

fundamental part of

this so how do you how do you quantify

that can you just maybe explain it a

little bit more about all of the

different ways in which you think now

you know the United States ends up

leaking services to these folks and also

they could be contributing too right

they could be paying taxes into the

system and so I guess there's both of

those possibilities and both of those

have fingerprints to off so yeah good

question you know look we need to figure

this out this this is a a very it's

massively complex you can see the map I

have on the Whiteboard and our office

it's huge and we're figuring it out

right now but let me just tell you this

and every benefit program we looked at

and this is just a handful of States we

found people on all the benefit programs

and we found them on unemployment we

found them on Medicaid so adjacent to

your point the people on Medicaid

unemployment they're not contributing

they're taking out they're moing right

there are criminals I mean look we sent

this data list to the National targeting

Center they and I I don't want to get

too far into the data but I can tell you

they found hardheads in the Target

Center um of very bad people criminals

and people on ter watch list that are in

this group and so yeah I mean it's it's

a problem we got to figure out how to

deal with it and the of course there are

people that are also you know have jobs

and paying in the system that's you know

that's that's also true all these things

are true and we're trying to surf the

data and figure out how to actually deal

with it now Antonio one of the things

about the data that you triggered which

because the data is so important

frankly is a lot of people started to

try to find a way to nitpick and say

Antonio you're cherry picking or Antonio

this is not really representative and

you had some pretty big names right

people that have credibility Jim chos

probably being one of the more prolific

people a very well-known hedge fund

manager but I think you try

to articulate why their objections

didn't make any sense I think it's

important to maybe give you a few

moments here to identify what they said

and maybe debunk it so the the chart

that they're using and you can see this

I posted something on X about this it

was Apples to

oranges you can you could see here they

took a chart that included all

enumerations not the EB program the

enumeration B entry program all

enumerations they compared to our chart

they put this so just to be clear this

would have included somebody like me

coming in on a tnv or somebody on an eb1

Visa yeah the so those people being our

data too but just enumerated Beyond

entry the data on the left uh of 2020

the big bars that includes people in the

offices that includes people that got

they got uh C numbers because they went

to a consulate and like you probably did

applied ahead of time before they came

in you know those kinds of people so we

need a stacked bar chart so there's some

fun with numbers going on can you flip

back again so your number for 24 was how

much 2.1 million right yeah

yeah what they did is took they took our

data so this was you know look I don't

want to impute Negative motiv they just

maybe were confused they took our data

and they comp they added the total data

right this is just subsection this is EB

and I'm just going to use AC okay guys

this is EB only in numeration Beyond

entry which is a program as I said

started in 2017 and then it kind of

ramped up into 19 they took our data and

then they added the total Data before

that right that is apples to oranges

that's why it doesn't work and I I went

through a whole analysis of this on X

and you know the person the first person

that posted the chart actually deleted

it and sent me a post saying hey you

know I'm deleting it because I get it

you're right and apologized and ask me

some questions I don't want to get into

you know you guys know I don't post a

lot on X I don't want to get into basic

people it's not worth it the data speaks

for itself there's it basically it

basically became like a roar shock test

where people that did not want to

believe the points you were making

latched on to that chart that was shown

even though it was disproven and that

became the narrative for a good chunk of

the internet and a good chunk of for

media respons yeah I mean look you guys

know me you know me for a long time this

is not political man this is this tell

about your political background again we

haven't talked about this on the show

Antonio but I think it's worth letting

everyone hear about your background a

little bit just so folks understand

where you're coming from I was a

Democrat for 20 years I mean I I I you

know I knocked on doors for really

Clinton Iowa I was uh you know from from

Illinois and look I've got lots of good

friends are Democrats and when I explain

this sta to them they're as shocked as I

am I don't believe this I mean to say

you're a Democrat is an under you were a

Democrat is an understatement you were a

major donor and majorly involved with

the Democratic party yes Ben you you

tend to call balls and Strikes on the

program what are your thoughts

on immigration generally and how it

should work here in the US and how maybe

we can resolve this and get to and Anton

I want your answer to that question as

well maybe some reconciliation here

between the moderates Maga original you

know classic GOP Democrats and and the

woke lunatics like is there any way out

of this and and maybe perhaps what we're

seeing here with somebody like Antonio

who's a lifelong Democrat who now is you

know helping the government maybe

there's some way with data and logic we

can get through this I mean I I think

that what Antonio is doing here is is so

important specifically for that because

it seems to me there's actually been a

fairly wide consensus among the American

population for a very long time what to

do about immigration particularly the

southern border which is number one just

sto the illegal immigration at the

southern border after Biden blew that

out a lot of Democrats turned to

president Trump specifically because of

that issue and that has been the signal

success of the Trump Administration

among all the other successes the the

numbers of the Border have just

plummeted to almost zero I mean the

lowest numbers in recorded history and

that is an unmitigated success and then

I think everybody knows that we have to

sort of figure out who gets to stay and

who gets to go who's already in the

country and what Antonio is doing by

being able to discern who is here and is

net draw on the resources of the

American people versus maybe who is a

net taxpayer or who's actually

contributing who's a criminal right

there's always been this bizarre

supposition in the in the political

realm that there's no way on a onetoone

level to figure out who is who you have

to treat everybody as a class either

everybody stays everybody goes and the

reality is that even the way the Trump

Administration is doing this by first

targeting say criminal illegal aliens

for for removal and then maybe moving on

to people who are net drawn resources

who came in falsely under claims of

Asylum and now are receiving Medicaid or

disability this I've made the argument

for for I think my entire career

actually on this that that we should be

treating immigrants illegal immigrants

who are in the country the same way we

would treat people who are trying to get

into the country which is to say are you

going to benefit the United States or

are you not going to benefit the United

States and the counter argument was

always well how exactly are you going to

determine who is who and the answer I

always gave was well the IRS does it

with our tax returns literally every

single year so why should we not be able

to do that and so the kind of work

Antonio is doing showing you actually

can do that by tracking the social

security numbers of people who came in

illegally because the truth of the

number of unknown getaways is actually

really really compared to this it's it's

a small number most of the people who

are coming across the border at least

during the Biden term I went down to the

Border last year and and visited uh a

Native American reservation that's right

along the border where where the border

patrol basically was not uh and and they

said that what was happening is people

were arriving at the border they were

doing exactly what Antonio was talking

about they would literally say I fear to

go back to my home country they' be

processed they'd be led into the country

with a with a a future date to come back

and that was all happening with 72 hours

so being able to track those people and

find out who who who should be in who

shouldn't be that that's that's huge and

I think that's the

consensus so uh should we are you in the

camp we should Deport everybody this

sort of Stephen Miller Miller Deport 20

million people Ben or you and the hey

let's get rid of the criminals and you

know that will get us to where we need

to be well I don't think it's just the

criminals I mean I think you also need

to go after the folks who are are here

to take advantage of the welfare

benefits for example who are just draw

on the system um but I don't think that

the number is 20 million I don't think

president Trump actually thinks the

number is is 20 million I don't think

anybody realistically thinks the number

is 20 million got it okay but they they

said it over and over again all 20

million are going and it's right but

they say a lot of things it's AIT it's a

yes it's a political campaign and people

say that sort of stuff all the time

Antonio let's talk maybe about

reconciliation here you spent your life

as a Democrat and now you've spent I

don't know six months as a republican

here and helping this Administration how

do we get the country to sort of get

back together here and maybe reconcile

on this issue because it seems like an

unnecessary to Ben's point I I think the

number is 80% of people believe the

Border should be just shut period full

stop and everything should be legal and

I don't know the other 20 if they're

just don't know how to take a survey

I've never met anybody who said there

should be an open border at at the

southern border so what are your

thoughts on given your inside knowledge

uh and I would describe you as a Clinton

Democrat fiscally conservative socially

liberal correct me if I'm wrong there

what are your thoughts on reconciliation

here because you really do care about

that your parents both immigrants my Bes

is here three of the four people who

host this program immigrants this is an

immigrant country built by immigrants

for immigrants has always been so how do

we reconcile this issue and put it

behind

us and Jason I have asked myself this

question and I I think we got to follow

the truth and that's that's the point

follow the truth and the truth is in the

data and as as Ben said the numbers

don't lie right and so people are

productive we got find a way to to allow

them to be productive and stay people

that are are taking the system should

not be allowed to stay and you know I

think we I don't want to get into the

policy at all because it's above my pay

grade I mean the reality is for me my

remit is as as Ben said it's criminals

terrorists and then people mooching off

the system and then you know a political

question needs to be answered about what

happens to the rest of those people I I

don't I don't know I don't it's not my

remit free I I will say this yeah I

think that all my friends who are still

Democrats that I have explain this data

to they all say the same thing you guys

are saying

man this is a problem we got to figure

this out and let me tell you why the

bigger problem the biggest problem here

and it's it's definitely is taking off

the system but you got to realize we

gave 13 to 15 billion a year to human

traffickers that's what this system did

and the money magnet that attracted

these people here it wasn't like it was

some crisis that you know environmental

crisis the money magnet attracted these

people and many of them died on the way

up I mean think about what that's like

think about the this a human suffering a

human rights tragedy you have people who

are getting sold into slavery and being

abused at the border at a at a minimum

every American should be against that

everyone is every American is man this

turned my stomach when I went to the

board and I heard the stories it turned

my stomach man this we are America okay

we protect people like this we don't

give incentives to people to pay

traffickers if you pay 20,000 I heard

20,000 to 500 bucks just across the

border $20,000 I mean where do someone

who's coming from Central America or

Africa get 20 grand to pay the pay the

traffickers that are walking them across

the border it's not free to walk up

Mexico okay it's controlled by the

cartels what happens I mean they got to

pay that back how do they pay it back

they're basically DED servants this is

terrible this isn't what we do in this

country right this country is about

freedom and we are here to protect it we

protect it around the world protected

our home country and I don't think any

American that I know none of them

Democrats Republicans or anyone thinks

this is good it's not good it's bad for

America and it's evil Behavior we

shouldn't send it we shouldn't we

shouldn't give people a reason to do it

we should find legal ways people come in

the country and

do you believe that there is a

Democratic party motive to increase

voter base for the Democrats behind all

of this as has been proclaimed by some

look as I go through the data and I see

it's all about the data okay David and I

know you you you you you love the data

when you just in a handful of States man

I'm talking about four states we looked

at the voter roles we found these people

thousands of them on the voter roles and

we found uh many of those people had

voted right in one state in particular

well over a thousand voted yeah I think

this was a a move to import voters but

really importantly I just want to make

sure because when when I talk to

politicians from the Democratic party

about this they say there's aspects of

Human Rights doing the right thing for

people in need that is motivating some

of this behavior is that a lie and they

actually have a different motive or do

some in the party think that way but

there are real kind of kind of call it a

small

group of Highly influential Folks at the

top of the democratic party that

recognize that this is going to grow the

voter base and they're kind of

motivating this what do you think is the

construction of what sounds to some to

be a conspiracy and how much of this is

really like widely

understood look Ben here I'll tell you

what I have seen I've tell you the

actual information if you look at C

Administration we set all the defaults

to kind of Max open no idea requirements

right you get a soci scen number uh

before we got here by walking in office

answering you know with with with a

medical record and a school ID that had

your name and your date date of birth on

it that's it okay we opened up we set

the defaults to open on Social Security

we set the defaults to open on pay

paying people out and we set the

collection defaults basically to zero so

that's how the system looks that's I'm

just reporting reporting the facts um do

I think that the the average person is a

democrat in the in in Illinois or you

know the guys I knew I to Chicago they

know this they don't know this they

don't know this so were there people at

the top of the system did this yeah

people created this policy the former

administrators of the of these agencies

created these policies I've seen them

I've read them myself I've gone to the

data myself they've seen them now this

isn't everybody if you're the average

person out there who's a Democrat and

you see what I've seen you I believe you

will you conclude what I concluded which

is this isn't right these policies are

wrong they're evil they're wrong we gave

an incentive for people to get

trafficked that's terrible I just don't

I just don't think people know the

reason I'm even willing to do all you

guys know me I'm pretty private I'm come

to your podcast because we're buddies

but like man the reason I'm talking

about this is is not political it's

because it's a human rights issue and

the human rights issue is being confused

it's not it's we are incenting people to

pay traffickers to come to America we

were doing this right we got to find

better ways to do that and I just I

don't believe any American the 80% of

people Jason's talking about that would

say close the border that's the 80%

people come together this issue man we

got to take care of people Antonio can

you talk about what the next big push of

effort from you and your team will be is

there good question some next chart I'm

not trying to be reductive but is there

something that you can demonstrate that

is going to be equivalently as powerful

as this first

chart which then helps us start to move

these gears towards doing the logical

and right thing I think the right thing

is to figure out who's who right who are

the criminals who are the terrorists

yeah number one and number two who's

mooching off the system and then number

three the people that are working that

Jason's talking about U you know what we

do with them that's the right answer I

would add a fourth because I think

that there's probably no

more electric issue than this idea of

voting

impropriety and I think it is become so

brazenly partisan that everybody has

suspended logic if it turned out if it

turns out that there was a manipulated

effort in 2020 and there is even a

thread of legitimacy to Trump's claims

you would never be able to see the light

of day because so many Americans just

turn their turn off right and that's

because of the rhetoric that they've

been fed this is a really important

thing that I would just offer to you is

that if it is true that these people

illegally voted I think it's a

Thunderclap and I think it opens wide

the aperture on voting illegality and

voting reform and I think that

irrespective of who you are you should

want to make sure that people who are

not allowed to vote are not voting just

to put it simply yeah wow what an

incredible I mean it's amazing I can't I

I can't uh I can't get an airplane in

America without ID but I can go vote in

some states without ID I think that's

crazy I totally crazy that is and we're

down to like Ben you know the number

it's 15 states now are the ones that

don't have voter idas so this is

becoming like a very obvious issue and a

loopover for us to close I think the

best next thing for you to do is

actually publish this list of people who

voted get it to the Heritage Foundation

and put sunlight on it the truth shall

make you free and sunlight is the best

disinfectant because I think the whole

issue is

absurd because if you look at the votes

in the swing States it would take a 100

thousand it would take tens of thousands

and it's illegal I I've spoken to the

person at the Heritage Foundation who

does this they found like 2400 cases

over 40 or 50 years the number of people

voting illegally is minuscule in order

to swing even but one state you would

need coordin hold on let me finish you

would need a coordinated effort I'm just

giving you data chamama I am not partis

there are tens of thousands of vot that

would need to be manipulated in each of

these markets it's impossible here well

there's the keyw here's what I would ask

you to consider sure your results are

only as good as your prompts

your results are only as good as your

prompts say it in plain English what do

you mean I suspect that if you put three

or four of the smartest data scientists

in the world they would get to a very

different answer than the answer that

has been arrived to I don't know whether

that'll validate or invalidate the claim

yeah but the quality of the people that

are able to interrogate this data is

directly correlated to the output that

is created well listen we all want the

data clean Ben I'll maybe I'll let you

you kind of answer the question from

your perspective do you think there is

any chance that a swing state could be

swung by you know this strategy and in

addition to that Trump is a populist all

these people and his biggest gains were

with people from South America Mexicans

Etc in this last election so and

noncollege educated so if you were going

to plot this incredible strategy it

seems like the Democratic strategy of

importing a bunch of Voters is the

stupidest possible strategy because the

Republican party has won those people

well I don't think that it would be a

great short-term strategy because of the

the problems that you mentioned in terms

of the the size of the voting gaps even

in close swing States although obviously

you have outlier cases like Florida in

2000 where the entire state is being

decided by hundreds of votes and there

you actually could see a state actually

shift on that basis it's a rarity but it

does happen and and in some cases

decides a presidential election uh when

when you're talking however about the

long-term play I think the question that

needs to be asked is if you are

importing a bunch of people who are more

dependent than average on the American

government for example or who are not

interested in assimilating to free

market values for example or Free Speech

values uh or or who come in and then

many of these people are going to get

married many of these people are going

to have kids they're going to marry

American citizens they're going to have

children who are American and then they

stay now you're talking about actually

generating a change in the voting

population and that isn't a right-wing

Point that's a point that was made by

Roy toera all the way back in 2004 when

he was a Democrat and he was making the

case essentially there was a demographic

wave that was going to shift the

electorate in the United States in the

direction of Democrats permanently now

the point that you're making is that

even as a long-term strategy that might

be a bad play because it may be that

these populations shift over time that

doesn't mean that that's not the intent

in the moment meaning wrong could could

have gotten it wrong they could made a

very bad strategic decision Antonio I

think we have to drop you off here any

closing comments you want to make and I

just want to thank you I know you've got

other things you could be doing in your

life but just on behalf of the American

people who I speak for here on the

program we want to thank you all

Americans for your service to this

country and I know that you are balls

and Strikes and you're going to let the

data speak so I just want to thank

you I would close this on this

conversation which is go look at

California Look at California okay

Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan came

California Ronald Reagan signed amnesty

and you know some 40 years later it is

now of solidly blue State and I think U

some us on this program I know you Jason

are Refugee from California because of

that because of some of those policies

and I want to be I want you to be

careful about this because it is it is

actually the tip of the iceberg man we

we have a very small sample of data in a

couple of States it's the tip of the

iceberg and so I don't know what the

unintended conse will be long term but I

can tell you what already happened in

America where an amnesty program

actually turned a very large State you

know from one one party another and I

want to leave you guys this thought this

is not political I'm not doing it

there's no political motivation in my my

mind this is about America it's about

securing the American democracy and we

will shine light onto the data when we

can we prefer these people to

prosecution and we're going to keep

looking we'll keep going and the data

will lead us and the truth will lead us

and it'll eventually come out in the

sunlight you're right but we're going to

follow the truth that's our primary

motive that that is that is our

operating parameter and what we're going

to do right on all right thank you

Antonio gra and Contin success and love

to talk to you in 30 days when you have

your next

findings you're a you're a refugee from

California too aren't you yes yeah we

took off in 2020 during during covid we

took off my company took off we we all

got the hell out I I was born in

California so I spent 30 uh 36 years

there before before I moved uh and yeah

they they certainly did a good job of

wrecking that state I mean I did the

same thing you went to oh I don't know

where you I'm in Florida yeah my

company's in Tennessee I'm in Florida

yeah got it yeah I mean it's just you

can't rais kids in California and you

just think about the crime and taxes and

what you're getting for your dollar it

doesn't make any sense I mean I don't

White House is off the zoom boys now we

can start to really open it up okay now

we can open up

the okay what do you guys think about

what you just

saw B I'll let you go first as our guest

yeah I I I wish the entire Trump

administration were rolled out as well

as Antonio just rolled that out is is

what I would say totally you know I

think that that is high levels of

competence and expertise and a

meticulous message that that is data

first and difficult for anybody to deny

I think that the success of the Trump

administrations the success that they've

had are taking the 80 side of 8020

issues and I think that the success of

President Trump in 2024 was that he

oddly became the Normy candidate he was

the guy who was returns normaly

candidacy and in the face of of Biden

and the bizarreness of of herness of

Harris and you know I think that as we

see many of Trump's policies rolled out

the ones that are rolled out the way

that Antonio is rolling it out are

incredibly well received by the American

population because they're seeing

serious people doing serious work that

needs to be done and the ones that are

not rolled out that way I think are

going to be a little more unpopular with

the American people and that that's kind

of I want president Trump to succeed at

a lot of these agenda items and I don't

want his his good agenda items getting

essentially railroaded and and Run Over

By by the by the bad rolled out of other

agenda items so you think thoughtful is

good and well thought out constructed

and communicated what what um when you

talk about this being done right what do

you think being done wrong it could be

done better I guess would be a generous

way of saying it what what could they

communicate better I mean not to jump

into the the pile of rakes that is the

the tariff plan but I think that the I

think that the way that the tariff plan

was rolled out is about as bad a roll

out as you could do um you know the

reason I say that is not just because of

my disagreements on the actual policy

I'll either be right or I'll be wrong on

that but the way that it was rolled out

with with very with with essentially

kind of a surprise announcement um I

don't mind a surprise announcement if

what is then rolled out is not replete

with with with sort of

contradictory justifications um you know

statistics that that are labeled one

thing but really are not that thing uh

and and so it just it opens itself up to

all sorts of critiques from every

possible side of the if you want to make

the argument make the full make the full

scale wellth thought aru argument and

then we can argue over whether it's true

or not but there's there's four or five

different claims that are being

simultaneously made about the tariffs

one they're going to raise revenue two

they're going to reshore three that you

are going to somehow retrigger the world

trading system

some of these are mutually exclusive if

you're going to if you're going to

reshore you're not going to raise as

much revenue for example right those two

things are are mutually exclusive and

they're both being trotted out at the

same exact time if you're going to put

out a giant chart that the president

holds up that shows tariff rates plus

unspecified you know variable uh then

what I'd like to know is what the actual

tariff rate is a as opposed to what the

calculation seems to be which was the

trade deficit with a country divided

into the Imports to that Country and

that that has nothing to do with the

Tariff rate I mean just technically

speaking it has literally nothing to do

with the Tariff rate and so what that

means is now you're boxed in logically

if president Trump wants to do a

reciprocal tariff reduction for example

how do you do that because he actually

has used a stat a statistic for the

tariffs that have nothing to do with the

Tariff rate and are actually just trade

deficits so the only way to actually

Rectify that statistic is to have

Madagascar buy a bunch of American

product for example in order to get

their their quote unquote tariff rate

down you know that that sort of stuff

seems badly calibrated even if you like

the policy for example all right yeah

unless unless from a poker point of view

they spent many months declaring they're

going to do tariffs and everyone thought

they were bluffing and said everyone

said there's no way you're going to do

tariffs it's like someone in poker is

saying I'm gonna play every hand I get

I'm going to be crazy you don't believe

them and they actually have to do it in

order to get the negotiating leverage

that they need to be able to negotiate

trade deals ultimately and they have to

look a little crazy maybe I mean that so

you're that's your position freeberg in

the 4D chess or trying to rationalize

one kind of rational reason for why a

lot of smart people would end up putting

that board up that poster board up where

to your point Ben they said that these

are kind of the the tariffs that are

being levied Upon Our Country when in

fact it is simply the math of imports

minus exports divided by Imports that's

what the number was and and and it was

and it was maxed out at that number or

10% and that's what they did so they did

that basically as a way in my opinion it

looks like and I'm just trying to take a

read on this

that um they're using this as a way to

anchor for negotiations going forward to

make the case we are declaratively

crazily off the fraking ship going to do

whatever the heck we want to do here in

this Administration now everyone takes

them seriously now everyone shows up to

the negotiating table and now they can

actually negotiate and then announce a

series of win after win after win and

say we got this set of countries to

capitulate today this is the deal we

worked out it's a totally unique deal

this set of deals we worked out today

this set of deals we worked out today

and basically getting all the trade

representatives to the table by making

the case that they're actually willing

to go all the way to the wall on stuff

so I that's the only way I can kind of

rationalize this roll out Ben that's

what it feels like to me for months

they've been very declarative we are

going to do tariffs bessent said it to

us on our interview letnik said it to us

on our interview and no one took them

seriously I did I did by the way I I

will say that I took them totally

seriously so much so that I called my

financial adviser after the State of the

Union Address and told them to uh [ __ ]

my my stock and bond ratio in my

portfolio because I figured that

something like this was going to happen

I think you went heavy treasuries yes I

I I I went light stocks I'll say that

and and and the reason for that is

because again I think that the thing

about President Trump is that you he he

may not you know be serious in every

single thing that he says but he is very

clear that when he says a thing over and

over and over there is no hidden

motivation and this is the part that I

always have trouble with with sort of

the the 40 chess reads on President

Trump there's almost never a hidden

motivation he pretty much just says the

thing that he thinks right it's one of

the things that makes him so popular and

authentic is that there isn't a 40 chest

game being played If he if he says that

he wants a thing to happen it's because

he actually wants the thing to happen

now the thing about President Trump is

he's also a realist so if a bunch of bad

headlines hit him he may then change his

mind and decide that he wants to drive a

truck directly through the center of the

tariffs because the prices are going up

too much on for example semiconductors

so one of the big exemptions from these

tariffs is in fact in the area of

semiconductors again there you see a

sort of couple of different

justifications that are that are

mutually exclusive that are fighting

each other one of them is the idea we

need to resore semiconductor production

because it's a national security asset

and the other is it's we need to raise

revenue on semiconductors so he Exempted

them which kind of you know kind of

Boles up the logic and I I think that

the the there are a couple of tells that

that isn't what's it may listen I think

it may end up being the thing you're

saying I think the most likely result of

these tariffs is that within the next

few weeks the headlines are not good

president Trump starts driving trucks

through the center of the tariffs and

then he starts getting wins from various

parties outside that allow him to find

an off-ramp on some of these tariffs you

know a company in in Belgium says

they're going to build a factory in the

United States he has them to the White

House they have a big ceremony and then

he says and as a result of this we're

now lowering the tariffs in sort of the

same way he did with with Colombia when

he said not the university the the

country when he said he was going to hit

them with tariffs unless you accept

these these illegal immigrants and and

then they did so that very well might be

the offer I don't think that's what's

going on right now I think what's going

on right now is the strategy that

lutnick has repeated expressed which is

that they actually kind of like the

tariffs they actually think that this is

good economic policy and that between

1880 and 1910 was an amazing time in

American history and and so they do you

agree um I I think that that is a bad

read on economic history because there

are a lot of confounds there that are

being ignored uh among those confounds

would be the fact that actually

Industrial Revolution yes so a few just

name a few in the industrial revolution

extraordinar high levels of immigration

by the way during that period so you had

an incredibly cheap labor base that was

actually coming in into the United

States at that time massive expansion of

the American population no income tax

capital a newly discovered continent

right like like like truly like many

many compounds right and by the way less

International Trade generally so tariffs

aren't going to have the same sort of

impact on Global Supply chains as they

would now where every product that you

buy has gone through 10 different

countries in 10 different ways and so so

no I don't I don't think that that is a

comp um but that doesn't mean that that

lutnick doesn't think that it's a comp

for example and and I think that the

when when it comes to you know the roll

out again a methodical roll out I I I

totally get the crazy man Theory and I

think that sometimes president Trump

does that I'm hoping that that's what

he's doing but a good example of an

off-ramp he could have taken if that's

the thing he's trying to do so yesterday

in anticipation of this Israel which had

very very low tariffs on United States

Goods anyway announced they'd removed

all tariffs on American Goods right

there were no tariffs on American Goods

anymore and the administration that

afternoon listed their tariff rate at

33% and then hit them with a 17% tariff

for a country that win and just use them

as an example of a great partner exactly

exactly didn't didn't Canada do the same

didn't Canada drop tariffs like the the

morning of they were on CNBC and they

said we're totally willing to go to zero

and then the anchors correctly on CNBC

were like well then why haven't you done

that already to Ben's Point Israel did

do that and but I think your theory Ben

is like absolutely correct if you make

this analogy to what he did with

overturning ro8 it is the same exact

thing he told us over and over again I'm

going to put two maybe three people on

the Supreme Court I'm going to overturn

it and then afterwards he kind of wiped

his hands through it and was like listen

it's up to you guys I had nothing to do

with it he will tell you what he's going

to do he told you he was going to do

these tariffs he's done them uh and I do

think there's something embedded in what

you said Ben which is I think he likes

everybody to come to Mara Lago or to

come to the White House and he loves

doing deals he's addicted to it he wrote

a book The Art of the deal he loves

people coming to him hanging out and

shth maybe you could give us your

perspective crazy man the crazy

grandpa uh or this is a negotiating

tactic everybody has to come through him

or lutnick believes it as he said very

clearly I'm going to add a trillion

dollars in taxes here what what do you

think is going on here because if when I

went through all the top people on the

internet all our group of friends uh who

are deeply in finance I can't find

anybody deeply in finance who's not in

the administr who thinks this is well

executed or a good idea what's your

thought let me start by saying a couple

things to use the Donald rumfelt quote I

do agree with Ben tremendously that this

was a known known we mentioned this last

episode Donald Trump has been speaking

about tariffs for 40 plus years yep so

this is not a new thing and I think that

he tried this in Trump one but to your

guys's point it didn't really go well

because he didn't have the the team

around him that had his back and so it

was inevitable that he would have tried

it in Trump to he said it and he's been

able to do it so if you weren't planning

for it whoever was vested in this

outcome you really needed to be focused

on this it was a known known and so

there was a little dereliction of Duty

if you were caught off guard I think

that's one the second is and I we've

said this all year since January one on

this pod we started it even with the

with that poly Market bet that I made

which is the Trump Administration does

not

care about the stock

market and by the way this the trade

actually closed out so congrats to all

these people that won $650,000 on let me

just explain poly Market put a betting

Market suggested by chaai haa they are

partners of ours Magnificent Seven

shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in

2025 this was free money this was like

the stock Market giving out free money

but why did this happen this happened

because it was very clear to me early on

that the rhetoric had shifted to say we

care about Maga we care about people

that have working class and middleclass

jobs none of those folks are deeply

invested in the asset economy the way

maybe some of us are and so it was

directionally clear and by the way Scott

bessent what a cold ass quote yesterday

the equity Market selloff is a MAG seven

problem not a Maga problem so there

again

putting all of this into the realm of

this is a known known so I think it's

pretty clear one Trump has had a 40-year

view on tariffs they're going to go

through with this and they're going to

see it through I don't think you're

going to see this Grand capitulation two

they are okay with the volatility in the

equity markets and then three which is

the other thing that we've been talking

about a lot is where does this move our

practical financing cost what is this

right we've talked about this we have

trillion dollars we need to finance in

the next 9 months so the singular goal

in my opinion of the White House has

been move the tenure as aggressively and

as quickly as possible and look what

they've done as of yesterday it's

unbelievable what's happened in the

tenure you know you were kissing

4% and we talked about this if it had

gone in the other direction guys 30 or

40 bases points and it touched 5% you're

talking about hundreds of billions of

dollars of extra money that would not

have been found that would have had to

be printed right and now this is

hundreds of billions of dollars that we

will save so if we cut rates If the Fed

Cuts rates that's all predicated this

doesn't matter anymore no this is this

is fed doesn't control the back end of

the curve on the treasury the treasury

markets the government sells treasuries

governments will option 10 years the

auctions will clear at around 4% it is

an enormous like as an American what we

should all be thinking is irrespective

of what you think you know or what you

think you like about tariffs we should

all have a moment where we exhale

because the long end of the curve is

giving us a respit in a storm and we

should be incredibly thankful because

know what I'm referring to chop is you

said yesterday Jerome pal you're on the

clock so maybe you could explain what

you meant by that okay so this is that's

a different part of the curve I

understand it's a different thing but

I'm just trying to put these two things

together because those are the two

things were saying this action took will

enable now okay so let's play the ball

where it lies okay the Wall Street Smart

money thought this was a 250 billion

event they were wrong this is part of

why the stock market has reacted so

violently today this is a $750 billion

to trillion dollar event okay this is a

big moment in the market so what does it

create it creates the risk of a

recession how do you minimize that risk

that is all about how easy it is for the

average person to be able to borrow

money where is that dictated that is

more dictated by the fed and how they

price the front end of the curve so what

we need to have happen now is while

Scott is out financing $6 trillion do on

the back end we now need to get Jerome

pow to cut the front end and if you do

it aggressively enough you can introd

produce liquidity in a moment where

small and mediumsized businesses can go

and get financed to weather the storm

Jam I want to add on to your point just

so you guys know there's

roughly 12 to6 trillion dollars of

private corporate debt in America so

this is debt held by small businesses

medium businesses Partnerships that have

on average call it a 15% operating

margin so they're going to be under

pressure if there is some recessionary

risk to make sure they have access to

Capital and if you remember the

interview that bessent gave to us a

couple weeks ago he was very clear that

one of his mandates is to enable the Rel

leveraging of the financial system

meaning he wants to give Banks the

ability to issue more debt to introduce

more capital and more liquidity into the

markets by taking away some of the

regulatory restrictions that have made

it more difficult for the banks to issue

credit to business owners to individuals

so if they are successful in their

deregulatory efforts it will introduce

more liquidity into the market coupled

with deregulatory work that they're

making in the other parts of the

administration as this is their

declaration not mine their intention is

to make sure that that Capital flows

into building businesses building new

businesses underwriting new jobs

creating more employment that's the

theory that they're trying to execute

obviously it's part of this three-legged

stool but if it doesn't all work the

stool Falls over okay chamath give us an

example here and I'm trying to get you

to paint the entire picture here because

the Tariff cudgel is not making sense

it's not all good news right so let's

let's paint the let's so I'll give a

very specific example A friend of

ours runs a 100 plus year company I'm

just going to say it in generic terms so

that I don't betray his confidence but

problem and this is a business that's

been built over 100 years owned by an

American family in Incredible family and

they make products that we all know and

love and what did this action do so in

their example they're in a very

difficult position because they have as

David said a very tight operating margin

because they have to compete ferociously

against China and they've done

everything possible to maintain their

capabilities in America hire American

workers in the Heartland but still

compete against China it's tough and

this action today swings them from

profitability to a potential yearly loss

in a meaningful order of magnitude like

hundreds of millions of dollars so Jason

that's the other side of this tariff

coin so we have to find a way of finding

those examples and as Ben said excluding

them somehow or giving them reprieve

because that wasn't the intention I

think of what Trump was trying to do

yesterday that's an example of a company

that should be winning and should

continue to win and fight the good fight

against China and try to continue to

employ thousands of Americans but this

thing because they had some capacity in

some other countries not China by the

way got it blows the thing up and so now

you have to fix those things all right

Ben let me get you involved here I'm

going to play you a quick clip from Rand

Paul and I want to get your feedback on

executive power and then on terrorists

themselves and if it's a good idea or a

bad idea play the clip what's the

rationale for getting behind this

well one we should not live under

emergency rule the Constitution said

taxes are raised by Congress most

specifically taxes originate in the

house and come to the Senate so I'm

against emergency rule we are richer

because of trade with Canada and so is

Canada whenever you trade with somebody

when an individual buys somebody else's

product it's mutually beneficial or you

wouldn't buy it if the trade is

voluntary it's always beneficial there

is no Canada versus the US the consumer

wins when the price is the lowest price

tariffs raise prices and they're a bad

idea for the economy Ben your thoughts

on the two issues is trade good for

consumers this is what you know I think

is on top of everybody's mind that yeah

the whole Trump presidency and he won in

large part due to inflation and Biden

economics and that he was going to

reduce inflation and I think a lot of

people believe inflation's about to come

roaring back your thoughts on the two

issues well I mean obviously on a

macroeconomic level I totally agree with

senator Paul when it comes to the powers

of of the presidency I think that it's

pretty extraordinary that we should be

able to use the trade deficit as a

National Emergency sufficient to put

down what effectively amounts to a $700

billion tax increase on the American

people if you're talking about them

paying the price of of the tariffs on on

the other end and Congress you know I

think that if things get bad enough

there a bunch of you know streams

obviously here that cross one of the big

things here is that Congress is up for

re-elect in a year and a half and if the

Republicans lose Congress in year and a

half then whatever tricks president

Trump is is trying to pull in terms of

being able to rejigger the rate at which

we are paying back our our national debt

all that stuff goes by the wayside

because if Democrats win Congress pretty

much everything comes to a crashing Hall

and there are a lot of Republicans who

are in swing districts or in say R plus

five R plus 10 districts who are

suddenly going to feel feel pretty

vulnerable a recession takes everybody

with it it takes secretary bessent it

takes the president it takes J Vance

takes everybody with it recessions tend

to crush the president who is in power

at the time regardless what their

long-term plan is when they say

short-term pay for long-term gain again

I think that there are a few factors

here that I would like to see played out

for example if there is an inflationary

effect to the tariffs in terms in terms

of price does that mean that Jerome pal

is going to eject additional liquidity

into the markets by by decreasing

interest rates it's hard to see how I

mean he's holding the interest rates

steady right now without decreasing the

interest rates despite president Trump

basically blasting him publicly since

before he was even the president

formally he just the president President

elect that time so again it's hard for

me to see how all of this squares into

what looks like a a really

well-calibrated policy and and then

beyond that in the long term tricks that

we play with regard to the rate of

interest paying back our national debt

are not going to be sufficient to pay

back our national debt unless we have

robust economic growth and so a lot has

to be bet on the robust economic growth

out out earning essentially the the

levels of debt that we are are currently

racking up and while I love what doge is

doing the systemic drivers of our

national debt are not actually being

touched at this point by Doge I mean

it's it's the it's the means tested

welfare programs that are really the

systemic long-term drivers of our

national debt and Military I think would

be number two yeah milit milit military

as a percentage of of the of the GDP or

as a percentage of the budget has been

you know relatively stable and in some

cases decreasing since since the end of

the Iraq War true but that but that that

when when it comes to the means tested

welfare programs those continue to grow

as a percentage of the budget and over

time are increasingly unfunded yeah as

our population ages and the population

grows

freeberg putting aside executive power

in the midterms which yeah that that

would change everything what are your

thoughts on just inflation and tariffs

and the chance that this comes back and

explodes in the administration's lab

well I think there are three

consequences not necessarily related to

inflation that are just worth spending

time on one of which I don't think gets

talked about enough the first is just

the challenge of tariffs in general and

I shared this clip with you guys over

the group chat yesterday from Ronald

Reagan talking oh it's so funny I have

it chewed up I actually edit it let's do

that let's play this clip and get your

reaction and today many economic

analysts and historians argue that high

tariff legislation passed back in that

period called the smooth Holly tariff

greatly deepened the depression and

prevented economic recovery you see at

first when someone says let's impose

tariffs on Foreign imports it looks like

they're doing the Patriotic Thing by

protecting American products and jobs

and sometimes for a short while it works

but only for a short time what

eventually occurs is first homegrown

Industries start relying on government

protection in the form of high tariffs

they stop competing and stop making the

Innovative management and technological

changes they need to succeed in world

markets and then while all this is going

on something even worse occurs people

stop buying then the worst happens

markets shrink and collapse businesses

and industries shut down and millions of

people lose their jobs the memory of all

this occurring back in the 30s made me

determined when I came to Washington to

spare the American people the

protectionist legislation that destroys

Prosperity so let me just say three

things that I think are going to be

important consequences one of which

doesn't get talked about much at all the

first is the important point about the

decline in competitiveness that arises

when you use protectionist tactics like

import tariffs so ultimately in order to

be competitive in the market you need to

have a free market to test how good you

are relative to your competitors and if

you use tariffs or other taxes or other

government intervening systems to

distort the natural forces of markets

meaning there's a buyer and a seller

there may be multiple Sellers and

ultimately the buyer will choose the

best seller then you're creating a

disincentive for American Enterprise to

be more competitive we lost

manufacturing because we weren't

competitive in manufacturing putting a

tariff on other manufactur ing countries

does not make Americans more competitive

it basically gives American businesses a

crutch David so let's talk about

manufacturing so if I'm using a

traditional assembly line with low

efficiency systems I'm going to be more

expensive to make a device than a

Chinese Factory that's built with a lot

of automation high efficiency systems

Etc and so if I'm saying well to buy the

Chinese product you got to pay twice as

much because there's a tariff now the

American company does not have an

incentive to invest in autom

or building better technology or

adopting new technology to make

themselves competitive in the

marketplace so that's the challenge with

tariffs long term is that they distort

Economic Consequences that arise in a

traditional free market system the

second consequence I think is important

is under this gu and in the near term

the effect of some of these tariffs is

going to be the loss of revenue for a

significant chunk of the American

businesses in particular I'll use one

example people may not remember this

because it wasn't that big of a thing

but between 2016 and 2020 during the

last Trump Administration there was a

continued kind of tariff and trade

escalation between Trump and China and

during that time China stopped buying

American a exports and China is the

biggest buyer of American agricultural

products as a result the Trump

administration had to issue two support

payment checks to Farmers that totaled

$28 billion in 2018 and 2019 just

because of that China stepping out of

the buying Market American farmers

represent a large amount of the voting

block for the Republican party and so my

I think that the second consequence is

going to be that there is going to need

to be financial support which means

increased government spending if we

intend to keep the tariffs in place and

the global market stops buying American

exports that's the second Consequence

the third consequence which is the one I

am most worried about which I think

about a lot is China had the state

council meeting a couple days ago and in

that state council meeting they

announced a series of measures and a

series of steps that they would be

willing to take an IP infringement in

the case of retaliatory tariff

escalation in a trade War what that

means is that China May step up and say

you know what we are disregarding all of

the IP rights held by IP rights holders

around the world and they could steal IP

more openly more brazenly and because

they have a lower cost of manufacturing

they have a larger manufacturing base a

lower cost of power

they could basically take the only thing

that much of American Enterprise relies

on which is our IP rights and say we're

just going to well people might say oh

they already do that they already do

that they do it to an extent but imagine

if China just made copies of Microsoft

Word and started selling it around the

world for $5 yeah I mean they did that

internally for some period of time then

they started to respect it internally

but they've never done it great point

and shipping Disney films overseas

that's right and so now imagine if they

started taking all of American

manufacturing drawings blueprints

designs and they have all this

manufacturing capacity and they sold

everything at 10 cents on the dollar to

all of the global markets that the US is

now cutting trade ties with because of

the the Tariff escalation and China says

we don't care about your IP rights

anymore we don't care because you've cut

us off the rest of the world needs

someone that will sell to them I will

also say China One thing that's not

talked about which I'll add in seems to

have developed three

nanometer semiconductor manufacturing

technology which is going to go into

production in Q3 of 2025 and will end up

being in full production 2026 this will

move the base from Taiwan potentially

into China they are developing

lithography systems they are developing

Advanced semiconduct Manufacturing

Systems and they will effectively have

everything from energy to the minerals

to the manufacturing capacity to support

and service all and the software now all

of technology and so we are in a really

disadvantaged position if China does

choose in this moment to disregard the

IP rights of American businesses so they

they have the ability to to swing back

at us chamat you who wrap us up here and

yeah I'll take the other side of all of