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RSI Is Closer Than People Think, Per Tae Kim

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RSI Is Closer Than People Think, Per Tae Kim

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930 segments

0:00

We have Take-Two in the waiting room.

0:01

Let's bring him in to the TV and Ultra

0:03

Dome. Take, how you doing?

0:06

>> Hey guys, doing great.

0:08

>> What's going on?

0:08

>> So, hey, so tell me, last time you were

0:10

on the show, you bottom ticked it.

0:12

What's going on?

0:13

>> Uh, I think I made the bullish call on

0:16

CPUs, memory, and Nvidia. Nvidia's up

0:19

like 5 10% but

0:21

>> Nice.

0:21

>> uh, these few names have still doubled

0:23

even after this big drawdown and the HBM

0:26

gains are up 100%. So,

0:28

I'm hoping that, you know, it's the same

0:31

thing again. I come on here and stocks

0:33

go up again.

0:34

>> Yeah, ideally we could have like an

0:36

emergency reserve of Take-Two

0:37

>> [laughter]

0:38

>> appearances. So, if the market is ever

0:39

down, we

0:40

strategic reserve, we call you up, you

0:42

jump on, and then it's

0:44

>> was funny cuz it was literally the exact

0:46

bottom and, you know, it went

0:48

exponential after that.

0:50

>> The Take-Two effect.

0:51

>> So, where are we right now with the

0:54

level of FUD, the level of, uh, downward

0:57

pressure on the AI trade broadly, the

0:59

chips, the semi trade? Like, reset for

1:01

us on like where sentiment is and then

1:03

we can work through the different pieces

1:06

of counter examples.

1:08

>> So, I think sentiment's very negative.

1:10

I'm kind of had this

1:12

huge up parabolic up move the last few

1:14

months and likely a lot of retail and

1:17

hedge funds piled in and we're seeing

1:19

this unwind now. I I think the first a

1:22

big part of it was the Iran war getting

1:24

worse.

1:24

>> Mhm.

1:25

>> Uh, every time, you know, we had the

1:28

the first ceasefire and negotiations,

1:30

stocks started taking off right right

1:32

after that. And then when you we had the

1:33

actual ceasefire, uh, we had a follow

1:36

through. And then as soon as Trump

1:38

started bombing Iran again, you know,

1:41

chip stocks have kind of plummeted in

1:42

the last two three weeks. Uh, and then

1:44

now we we're seeing just, you know, back

1:46

to the old, uh, pattern of, uh, media

1:50

and the viral hot takes uh, spreading a

1:52

lot of FUD. Uh, I think we saw earlier

1:54

this month, um,

1:56

I think, uh, Reuters quoted like

1:59

Zuckerberg about agentic AI. They took

2:02

it out of context and then every

2:04

media person was with the hot take that

2:07

this met meta was seeing bad returns and

2:10

they're going to cut capex. And then we

2:11

had leaks right after that saying that

2:13

it looks like meta is going to raise

2:15

capex. So what we're seeing a lot of

2:17

this hot take fud.

2:19

Yesterday I think we had a flurry of

2:21

stuff that scared people. The Wall

2:23

Street Journal vendor financing article

2:26

that we'll see we'll see what happens

2:27

with that. We had CMXTI IPO in China and

2:32

everyone freaked out over that. We had

2:33

the information article on ASML.

2:36

We could go through each one. And then

2:37

the Kimmi thing is obviously a big

2:39

thing.

2:39

>> Yeah, we'll definitely get there and I

2:40

want to talk about open source and

2:43

Nvidia's strategy there obviously.

2:45

Starting with the Mark Zuckerberg news

2:47

in Reuters. This was July 2nd. Meta's

2:50

Zuckerberg says AI agent tech

2:51

progressing slower than expected.

2:55

Zuckerberg added that the company's

2:56

reorganization that included major job

2:58

cuts was not as clean as it could have

3:00

been. Zuckerberg and other meta

3:01

executives have been seeking

3:03

to moderate some of the core of the

3:05

organizational changes introduced this

3:07

year. And they said that the trajectory

3:10

of agentic development over the last

3:13

four months hasn't really accelerated in

3:15

the way we expected. The company's bets

3:18

on new structure haven't come to

3:19

fruition yet. And so people were sort of

3:23

reading this as maybe Meta's going to

3:25

pull back. But then

3:27

it felt like the response was extremely

3:29

quick with with Boz going on a podcast

3:33

and Alex Wang sharing a whole bunch of

3:35

progress across um

3:37

a few different

3:39

models and data points. And then

3:41

SemiAnalysis wrote a whole bull case for

3:43

MSL talking about how they have compute

3:46

and also they have more of like the

3:49

internal structural alignment to sort of

3:51

properly YOLO in the AI era if I'm

3:55

boiling it down as brutally as possible

3:57

just because with Google there's always

4:00

this debate between oh do you sell the

4:02

TPUs or do you sell the cloud do you

4:04

have vented in the product whereas Mark

4:06

Zuckerberg's able to sort of like go all

4:08

in on this new idea and so maybe there's

4:10

more

4:12

more glimmers of hope there but what

4:14

else have you been tracking downstream

4:16

of Meta's ambitions?

4:18

>> Well, I mean they've been very up front

4:20

that they're investing in AI. Alexander

4:22

Wang is tweeting multiple times every

4:24

few weeks that they're they're going

4:26

full force. They're going to redo open

4:29

source AI models. They I think he said

4:31

that at the YC event over the weekend.

4:34

And it's I mean if you actually look at

4:36

and then Reuters came out I think with

4:38

an article saying that they're actually

4:39

going to raise CapEx dramatically

4:42

this year and next year. So all that

4:44

kind of fear that that quote about

4:46

expensive AI from the town hall

4:49

that kind of like spooked the market for

4:51

a few days and kind of it was it was

4:53

completely false.

4:54

Um

4:55

>> Yeah, it feels like it's a

4:56

yeah, it feels like it's a comms error

4:58

because the the language that's been

5:00

coming out of Meta has been a little bit

5:02

like

5:03

AI is going to replace our employees and

5:06

it feels like it'd be much better for

5:08

them to to come to the market with a

5:11

message of we're going on the offensive.

5:13

Like we're a hyperscaler.

5:14

>> be to be fair that that was the internal

5:16

town hall. They didn't mean to leak it

5:18

and Reuters leaked that one quote and

5:20

put it out put out the headline before

5:22

the article came out.

5:23

>> it's interesting like Meta did Meta

5:25

basically go through like an 8-year

5:26

period where like internal town halls

5:28

didn't instantly leak?

5:30

>> everything leaked always. I think I

5:32

think everything's been everything's

5:33

>> but there was there was a period where

5:34

like the the the the sort of attention

5:37

of the media was way way way less on

5:40

like what Meta was doing internally

5:42

relative to the 2010s and all that

5:45

attention just went to the labs, right?

5:48

>> Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, that makes sense.

5:50

Yeah, I guess the question is like

5:54

>> The question that

5:56

I keep coming back to is like where is

5:58

their revenue ramp? Where is their AI

6:00

revenue going to ramp and when, right?

6:03

Because as you just keep

6:05

>> ads. Like the ads like the AI has

6:07

>> Yeah, and I and that's

6:09

always that's always that's always been

6:11

my view, too, but when you're when

6:13

you're continuing to ramp CapEx

6:16

>> Yeah.

6:16

>> with and saying like we're going all in

6:18

on a gen tech and we're building a

6:20

harness and we're also going to do open

6:22

source and it's like, well, what is the

6:24

strategy?

6:25

>> Sure.

6:25

>> Like

6:27

what is going to take you to a billion

6:29

dollars of like pure AI product revenue

6:32

>> Yep.

6:33

>> or or or just API revenue? What's going

6:36

to take and then to five and 10

6:38

>> Mhm.

6:39

>> and what's going to allow you to like

6:40

justify this spend other than I think

6:43

the market would love if they just said,

6:44

"Yeah, we actually need all these GPUs

6:45

cuz we can actually be 10 times We're

6:48

already good at ads, we could be 10

6:49

times better and that's where we're

6:51

going to get the the ROI on all of this

6:53

CapEx."

6:54

>> Mhm.

6:54

>> Well, well, they're definitely getting

6:55

ROI in that. The market is worried

6:57

about, you know, all this extra CapEx on

6:59

the or going for the frontier AI model

7:02

basically again. And they had to reset

7:05

like they had to a lot of people left

7:07

and now weighing hired a ton of people

7:09

and uh

7:10

>> Yeah.

7:10

>> we'll see what happens over the next

7:11

It's going to take time. It's going to

7:12

take 6 to 12 months before we see any

7:14

more progress.

7:15

>> But that that is hard when you

7:17

>> model like came out a few weeks ago um

7:18

was a lot better than people thought.

7:20

But it wasn't, you know, the frontier

7:22

but it was much better than what people

7:23

expected.

7:24

>> Yeah. Yeah.

7:26

Uh

7:27

so, uh how have you been processing the

7:30

Nvidia letter around uh open source and

7:35

all the back and forth, all the people

7:37

jumping on, the companies that have been

7:39

staying back?

7:40

>> I I think

7:41

it's been very impressive what they've

7:43

been they basically

7:45

United the entire tech industry against

7:47

Anthropic and in the last like three

7:49

four days.

7:49

>> 18 trillion in market cap has signed on

7:52

last time I tracked across

7:54

>> I mean Google Cloud Amazon signed on

7:57

eventually

7:59

yeah.

7:59

>> Okay, they signed on yesterday they

8:00

tweeted out interesting.

8:02

I think Apple is still the holdout but

8:04

that's

8:04

>> Which is kind of strange cuz they're the

8:06

one that would most benefit from open

8:09

source open weight models being you know

8:12

more available. I would think but I

8:14

don't know what Apple

8:16

But I mean they pretty much got the

8:18

whole tech industry to

8:20

kind of corner Anthropic in their

8:22

position um

8:24

Open AI signed on.

8:25

>> Yeah, what did you think of obviously

8:27

Nvidia is afraid

8:29

I don't know how how

8:31

if I don't know if they're really

8:36

I don't really I don't read it as being

8:37

like cornered by any means. Right?

8:41

>> Jensen is on the record that you know he

8:43

said I think to Bloomberg that there was

8:45

rising sentiment that something was

8:47

going to happen on the on the regulation

8:49

front

8:51

White House or whatever.

8:52

>> Yeah, and we saw that this was this was

8:54

last week you had at least four people

8:57

in the admin say we're not against open

9:00

weights. We're against distillation and

9:02

at least I was reading into that of some

9:05

type of regulatory action around open

9:07

weights

9:08

and and then positioning it as we're

9:10

targeting this is this is like we're

9:12

hitting them hard. Yeah.

9:15

>> Um about you know push back and

9:17

restrictions and he's doing it under the

9:20

safety umbrella but

9:21

definitely Microsoft and Nvidia are

9:24

worried that

9:26

the White House or Congress is going to

9:28

do something on this front and that's

9:29

why

9:30

they took

9:31

>> very reasonable that he would have no

9:33

problem with like Gemma or llama or any

9:35

of the open source from like American

9:37

hyperscalers where if you find out that

9:39

they're distilling, you just walk across

9:41

the street and sue them. Uh and also

9:43

these big companies have huge huge I

9:46

mean they have safety teams, but also

9:48

just like huge incentives to not have a

9:50

safety incident happen on their watch

9:52

because you're trying to like catch up

9:54

to the frontier and then all of a sudden

9:55

you have a safety incident. That's going

9:56

to be really bad for your overall brand.

9:59

Uh and you have a different business to

10:01

protect, whether it's social networking

10:03

or uh Google Search. If all of a sudden

10:06

the Gemma model winds up being a thorn

10:09

in someone's side for a cybersecurity

10:10

reason or bio reason, uh that would be

10:13

uh really really bad. But uh

10:16

a foreign company that is just like

10:18

hurling it over here can kind of just be

10:19

like, "You guys deal with the

10:20

consequences potentially." So, I think

10:22

that's what what what Darius is worried

10:23

about. Uh what about um

10:26

the overall idea of like where where it

10:30

feels like we're sort of replaying the

10:31

Deep Seek moment, open source is going

10:34

to reduce cost. And so, uh that's a

10:37

reason to pull back on the AI trade

10:38

overall. How have you processed that?

10:40

>> It's almost a perfect analog. Uh people

10:42

are worried about Kimmy, yeah, but when

10:44

you actually read the technical paper

10:46

and their blog post, uh

10:48

this is not a tiny efficient model. This

10:50

is 2.8 trillion parameters. It's going

10:52

to require a ton of compute server. I

10:55

mean, we saw it the first day they put

10:56

it out that their servers got slammed.

10:59

Um even in the blog post, they say it's

11:01

best run on a kind of a

11:05

a server with 64 GPUs. So, big

11:07

superclusters that are networked well

11:09

and and that's perfectly runs great on

11:11

Nvidia. And if you remember, you know,

11:13

during the whole Deep Seek thing about a

11:14

year a year or so ago, uh the market

11:17

freaked out that, you know, Deep Seek

11:19

was going to was so efficient that it

11:20

will lead to a compute flood. But,

11:23

Deep Seek was an example of the

11:25

reasoning model that actually it was the

11:26

opposite. It created a ton of demand.

11:29

And I think the same thing is going to

11:30

happen with Kimmy, where uh when you

11:32

have more capable models that come out,

11:35

people find uses for them. And right

11:37

now, just like last year when reasoning

11:39

models took off, agentic AI and agents

11:42

are taking off right now, and the market

11:45

is kind of like not realizing that cuz

11:47

right now, just like last year when

11:49

reasoning models were taking off, right

11:50

now agentic AI is taking off. And the

11:53

next 6-9 months are going to be bigger

11:55

than anyone believes. And Sam is on the

11:58

record. Sam is on the record

12:00

over the weekend saying

12:04

at the YC thing again, like people don't

12:05

I don't know why people don't like

12:07

listen to you. It's on YouTube. That the

12:09

next 6 months it's going to be much more

12:12

dramatically better for AI than the last

12:14

2 years in terms of advanced

12:15

capabilities. And I heard you say RSI

12:18

before. I think it's going to be RSI.

12:20

People inside OpenAI, and definitely

12:23

Anthropic, Anthropic put a blog post on

12:25

this. RSI I think is a lot closer than

12:28

people think. And if RSI actually

12:30

happens in the next 3-6-9 months, that's

12:32

going to soak up insane amount of

12:35

compute. I mean, we had this exponential

12:37

ramp for reasoning, exponential ramp for

12:39

agentic, and then if RSI actually

12:41

happens, and I think sounds like both

12:44

frontier labs think it's going to happen

12:45

very soon. That's going to soak up an

12:48

unbelievable amount of compute as the AI

12:49

models, you know, use more compute to

12:53

self-develop and improve. And I think

12:55

that's one thing that people are

12:57

missing, that both Anthropic and OpenAI

12:59

are kind of winking that oh, it's

13:00

happening. Anytime I tweet something on

13:02

RSI, all these frontier AI people

13:05

>> [laughter]

13:05

>> like my tweet. So, I think that's good.

13:08

>> Uh what what is your what is your sort

13:10

of

13:11

framework around compute hoarding?

13:14

Because certainly certainly it is it has

13:16

been happening when you look at when you

13:19

look at you know,

13:21

like going back to the meta example,

13:23

right? They're not selling compute yet.

13:26

They're maybe

13:27

curious about it or or exploring some

13:29

deals. But they have all this compute

13:31

and they're betting on their own ability

13:33

to create the capability that will have

13:35

enough demand to

13:38

uh justify justify that. Do you just

13:40

think it there there there's so much

13:42

demand overall that it just, you know,

13:44

even if they're they're hoarding, it

13:46

just will leak out and it's okay?

13:49

>> so much demand overall. I mean, the SK

13:51

Hynix executive said uh during their IPO

13:54

run

13:55

um that their customers are asking five

13:58

to six times more than they're able to

14:00

serve. And they're going to double

14:01

capacity over the next five years, they

14:03

said. And their customers, and I I I'm

14:05

going to assume it sounded like Jensen,

14:08

um

14:09

are asking for five to six times more

14:11

than they're they're able to build. So,

14:12

there's overwhelming demand. You guys

14:14

were at the advanced AI uh

14:17

AI and D event. Lisa Su raised her CPU

14:21

gigantic CPU forecast.

14:23

Just three months ago it was 120 billion

14:25

for 2020 30. Three months later, they

14:27

raised it to 220 billion.

14:29

>> Yeah.

14:29

>> Like, she doesn't do that. She doesn't

14:32

do that.

14:32

>> You have that just on the ready?

14:34

>> I've got that ready. I can do whatever.

14:35

[laughter]

14:36

>> I mean

14:37

Like

14:38

>> Well, I just love this chart because he

14:39

called it

14:41

perfectly.

14:42

>> He actually did. It's crazy.

14:43

>> And CEOs don't don't, you know, raise

14:47

their TAMs by like these multiples in a

14:49

few months if they're not seeing insane

14:52

demand coming in.

14:53

>> Especially not public CEOs or serious

14:55

business leaders who've been running

14:57

like non-meme stocks for decades and are

15:00

like serious business

15:01

>> Everyone's freaking out that this is

15:02

like the dot-com bubble all over again.

15:04

They're under finding orders. But what

15:06

if these hyperscaler GPU cloud

15:09

businesses are amazing businesses? Like,

15:11

we're going to say like Anthony says,

15:12

like if you do inference,

15:14

it's 60 to 80% profit margins, right?

15:16

These are amazingly profitable

15:18

businesses as long as we keep growing

15:20

the next few years. And And again, just

15:23

like last year, we're at we're on this

15:24

exponential run right now over the next

15:28

two quarters, and the market isn't

15:29

seeing that. Everyone's freaking out

15:31

that oh no, we're spending too much. And

15:33

even uh Sam Altman

15:35

uh podcast came out today, and another

15:37

podcast is Sam Altman. Sam is out there.

15:40

He said that he regretted, you know,

15:43

pulling back on the compute purchases.

15:44

They made a mistake by uh not putting

15:47

the pedal to the metal, cuz now things

15:49

are taking off again. So,

15:51

like I I I I I don't I Amazon the CEO in

15:56

April, if you everyone read his annual

15:58

letter, Andy Jassy wrote. Yeah. He talks

16:00

about how free cash flow works. We're

16:02

not betting $200 on a hunch. We see the

16:05

demand. We know it's going to be

16:07

insanely profitable and free cash flow

16:09

positive in the medium-to-long term. So,

16:12

that's why we're investing $200 now, and

16:14

in in the year or two, we're going to

16:16

see insane amounts of free cash flow.

16:18

The thing that people are worried about

16:19

the right now. It takes time to build

16:21

out these data centers and fabs, and you

16:24

bet now it's going to happen in a couple

16:26

of years.

16:27

>> if you if you see uh

16:29

you see free cash flow, that is that

16:31

that assumes that uh like like the

16:35

revenues have to catch up, and then the

16:36

capex can't grow more exponentially. And

16:39

so, that means you have to see some sort

16:41

of plateauing. Maybe it's at the end of

16:43

the chart, maybe it's this 2030 range,

16:45

but there is a different world of just

16:47

like continued growth forever. And then

16:49

we sort of run out of money.

16:50

>> The the pushback I have there is that's

16:53

a static view, right? If they don't grow

16:55

revenue

16:56

>> Mhm.

16:57

>> for the next 3 years, yes, you can't do

16:59

that.

16:59

>> Yeah.

16:59

>> But, they're growing Azure is going 40%,

17:03

Google Cloud is going 80%, yeah. You

17:05

know, Amazon's growing

17:07

high uh double digits. So, if

17:10

if

17:11

if revenue is growing 40 to 80% this

17:15

year or next year and the year after,

17:17

that's more revenue you have, that's

17:18

more operating cash flow you have to

17:20

invest, right?

17:21

>> Yeah.

17:22

>> So, that's that's what people are

17:24

missing. And if this stuff

17:26

if the data centers you're building now,

17:28

you're spending all this now

17:30

generates

17:31

unbelievable free cash flow in 12 to 18

17:33

months because, you know, this AI is

17:36

actually engaging and re-architecting

17:39

all the workflows inside companies, and

17:41

you need to do the agentic AI coding

17:43

agents to make your product better cuz

17:46

if you don't if you don't iterate 100

17:48

different iterations of your product and

17:50

R&D

17:51

if you don't do AI, just like AT&T is

17:54

doing at the agentic advancing AI at

17:57

AMD. He's talked about they're putting

17:59

100 gen AI models into production.

18:01

They're burning a trillion tokens

18:03

a month, and then that's growing double

18:05

digit. The reason why they're doing that

18:07

is cuz, you know, you by using agentic

18:09

AI, you're providing a better customer

18:11

service, a better you have a better

18:13

product R&D, and you're helping your

18:15

companies make better products and

18:17

services. And if you don't incorporate

18:19

AI into your company

18:21

Verizon, your other company is going to

18:24

do is going to incorporate AI and then

18:26

disrupt you, and then you lose all your

18:28

revenue. So, everyone's worried about

18:30

the ROI. ROI is important, but you also

18:32

need return on revenue because

18:35

if you don't use AI, your your rival is

18:38

going to use AI to beat you in the

18:39

market.

18:40

>> Yeah, yeah. No, I I I think the

18:41

diffusion story is still even though we

18:43

got like sort of jitters by the token

18:45

maxing thing, just the actual usage of

18:48

AI across companies is still pretty

18:51

limited in terms of the amount of people

18:53

that are using it, the time that those

18:54

people are using it. Like, there

18:56

definitely is a San Francisco bubble of

18:58

startups where everyone is using AI a

19:00

lot, but if you just walk into a normal

19:04

business, a lot of people are like,

19:05

"Yeah, I got to check that out." which

19:07

is pretty interesting.

19:08

>> you some some context here, something

19:10

>> Yeah, Arra Garabedian Jared Sleeper of

19:12

Andreessen Horowitz saying enterprise

19:14

adoption disparity remains enormous and

19:18

he cited Ara saying

19:21

usage would 100 x if every company

19:23

adopted AI to the degree of the most

19:25

advanced companies.

19:26

>> Yeah, yeah, yeah, people like people

19:27

forget in the ramp in in the ramp data

19:29

like adopting AI can mean like having a

19:30

chat GPT pro account for someone which

19:31

is like not exactly the same as like

19:32

using codex and like coding agents and

19:32

stuff. Like it's important I think that

19:33

you know if I have someone on my team I

19:34

want them to be able to go and do a deep

19:35

research report but

19:37

that's like table

19:48

stakes. The question is like are you

19:50

actually speeding up anything that's

19:52

repetitive in your job and that

19:54

diffusion is just starting to take hold.

19:57

>> So so the total market size in terms of

19:59

IT and knowledge management in

20:01

corporations it's about 6 trillion

20:04

dollars, right? A year.

20:06

Uh the two main frontier AI model

20:08

companies open AI and Anthropic I'm

20:11

going to say I think this is roughly

20:12

accurate are doing 120 billion dollars

20:15

combined in ARR. You know, why can't

20:17

that go to 200, 300, 400 billion in the

20:20

next year or two? I mean they're growing

20:23

at exponential rates.

20:24

>> Yeah.

20:24

>> And we're taking off and the if the

20:26

market is 6 trillion dollars, right? Why

20:29

can't they grow to 200, 300, 400 billion

20:31

next couple years? I mean it's like just

20:34

do a little logic and rational

20:36

deduction.

20:37

>> Yeah.

20:38

>> Um this is definitely possible and it's

20:40

happening right now and it's

20:41

accelerating and people aren't you know

20:44

they're just taking you know these big

20:46

headlines where we had this

20:48

you know 50 billion dollars from the

20:50

Financial Times and we find out it's

20:52

over 30 years. It's like on the

20:53

homepage.

20:54

>> Wait, wait, yeah, yeah, okay, I wanted

20:55

to ask you about this. Nvidia revealed

20:57

its tenant for 50 billion dollar data

20:59

center that will use its chips. Explain

21:01

what what is actually going on here?

21:03

>> So the Financial Times is put on their

21:05

homepage today that Nvidia is going to

21:08

backstop a lease for a data center in

21:11

Texas for $50 billion. And I saw that, I

21:13

was like, "Oh my gosh. Oh,

21:15

that doesn't sound good."

21:16

>> Yeah. Yeah.

21:17

No, it literally sounds like they're

21:19

buying their own chips. Like, it sounds

21:21

like the most bad thing you could do.

21:23

>> Yes. [laughter] Then they actually read

21:24

the article, like, halfway down the

21:26

article. It's like, a 15-year lease,

21:29

uh, and it's only $50 billion if they

21:32

renew the lease after 15 years.

21:35

>> Okay.

21:35

>> So, it's like over 30 years if they

21:37

renew it. Then, if you think about that,

21:38

you're like, "Wait a minute. 50 billion

21:40

divide by 30, if they renew it."

21:42

>> Okay. Yeah, Nvidia's 15-year lease

21:45

commitment for the Texas site is worth

21:47

basically 20 billion, and renewal

21:49

options would take the total value to 50

21:52

billion over 30 years, according to Hut

21:54

8.

21:55

>> Okay, but

21:56

what do you think they're What What are

21:58

their plans for the site? Is this

22:01

they

22:02

are going to have some Like, what What

22:04

do you expect them?

22:05

>> So, so, my my point is this is a

22:07

billion, you know, whatever, a billion

22:09

or $2 billion a year, right? It's a

22:11

non-story. But, it's a it's a big

22:13

headline, sensational headline on the

22:15

homepage.

22:16

>> Yeah, and also and also it's not that

22:18

it's

22:19

it's not like you're taking a $2 billion

22:21

loss every year. It's you are the

22:23

tenant, and then you are also renting

22:25

that out, so hopefully you're making

22:26

profit.

22:27

>> It's a rounding error. It's like, you

22:29

know,

22:30

they're doing 320 billion run rate a

22:33

year now. That's going to go to 400, 500

22:35

billion next year. And we're talking

22:37

about something that might be a billion,

22:38

you know, like, this is not a story,

22:41

but, you know, this is how people run

22:44

with the sensationalized headlines, and

22:47

people panic and freak out.

22:48

>> they just wanted to say the biggest

22:49

number. Yeah.

22:51

>> That's exactly the point. And And we're

22:53

going to see what happens with this Wall

22:54

Street Journal article. Um, both OpenAI

22:57

and Nvidia are not commenting so far.

23:00

Uh, we'll see.

23:01

>> But, take us through the rumor.

23:02

Rumor mill time.

23:03

>> a rumor. It's the Wall Street Journal

23:05

and other uh people reporting that.

23:07

Yeah, Nvidia is in talks with Open AI to

23:10

backstop SoftBank up to 250 billion, you

23:14

know, billion dollars. We don't know the

23:16

details and I don't want to speculate

23:17

and comment, but let's actually see the

23:19

details before we I I I think the market

23:21

had a really big negative reaction

23:23

yesterday

23:24

>> Oh,

23:24

>> uh to this story.

23:25

Uh because everyone I mean, Jim Cramer

23:27

was telling his audience like sell

23:29

everything at the open today because AI

23:32

and data centers dot com uh you know, it

23:35

was insane. It's just Let Let Let's see

23:38

the actual deal and then metrics and

23:41

then numbers before we panic and freak

23:43

out.

23:44

>> Yeah.

23:44

Yeah, that Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that makes

23:46

sense.

23:47

So

23:47

>> Yeah, honestly, when you say freak out

23:50

and sell everything, sell your dollars,

23:52

sell your

23:53

sell your house, sell your stocks, then

23:55

I'll freak out. But, until then, today I

23:58

feel I feel okay.

23:59

>> I mean, I just see the fundamentals. I

24:01

see the CEO of AMD expanding her TAM,

24:05

you know, dramatically in just over the

24:06

last 3 months. I see RSI on the horizon

24:10

like every AI researcher is like, "Oh my

24:12

god, this is going to happen. We have to

24:13

get there sooner." And then I see, you

24:16

know, the obvious use case of

24:19

uh agentic AI where you have to

24:22

re-architect your workflows internally.

24:24

Every company has to do this. So,

24:26

everything is taking off. You see like

24:28

um

24:30

You see uh when the president of Korea

24:32

came to San Francisco area last week,

24:34

you know, they had like a day in the

24:36

valley.

24:38

Instantly, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang,

24:41

Qualcomm CEO Hock Tan, Dario, you know,

24:44

Sam Altman are there, right?

24:48

You know, do a little logic deduction.

24:49

What Why are they there like crazy? Cuz

24:51

they need HBM memory and they're dying

24:54

to have it.

24:55

So, if you think about that, that means

24:57

there's insane demand and HBM memory is

25:00

in in

25:01

in shortage and there's tremendous

25:03

demand for it, right?

25:05

>> Talk about the Oh, sorry. Talk about the

25:07

Nvidia CUDA mode. It feels like a big

25:11

piece of AMD's advanced AI event was

25:16

maybe the CUDA mode isn't as much of an

25:18

issue anymore in the age of agentic AI.

25:21

You can have an AI agent write you the

25:24

software that you need to use any chip

25:26

and that creates less pricing power for

25:29

Nvidia, but there's another world where

25:32

you're not really

25:34

like

25:35

Nvidia doesn't necessarily need a mode

25:37

because everything's just growing so

25:38

fast that they're still growing. But how

25:40

have you interpreted the processing of

25:41

like the potential death of the CUDA

25:43

mode?

25:44

>> So, AMD is out of it. Kimmy wrote like a

25:47

couple paragraphs in their blog post

25:49

about how they created a GPU kernel all

25:52

that. So, everyone, you know, gets

25:54

scared or whatever.

25:55

It it's

25:57

we'll see what it's like in real life.

25:59

You know, this is just you know, AMD is

26:01

incentivized to say, "Oh, CUDA's not a

26:03

problem anymore."

26:04

CUDA's been a tremendous mode and I

26:06

think it continues to be a mode. And the

26:08

reason why is

26:10

it's super reliable. All the bugs have

26:13

been optimized and fixed and that comes

26:15

from hitting the software, you know,

26:17

millions of times and billions of times,

26:19

right? Like you don't know if, you know,

26:21

if if you use cloud code or Kimmy that

26:24

what they figure out using their

26:27

training data is going to work in the

26:29

real world, right? They could talk about

26:30

one little piece that does well. Let's

26:33

see how it actually works.

26:34

>> Yeah.

26:34

>> But Nvidia's

26:36

big mode is

26:38

its scale, its co-design of actually

26:40

working through the networking, the CPU,

26:43

the GPU and how everything works

26:45

together. And the other big thing is

26:47

their balance sheet and their ability to

26:50

uh get supply commitments from, you

26:53

know, I

26:54

I I said this before um

26:56

optical startups are like upset because

26:58

Nvidia secured all the supply for all

27:01

the optical components. Same thing with

27:03

TSMC wafers, same thing with HBM memory.

27:06

So, Nvidia is using their size and

27:09

gorilla and be able to prepay and get

27:11

components that are in shortage. So,

27:13

they become the dominant, you know, over

27:15

the next year or two, you're going to

27:16

see Nvidia able to add tons of revenue

27:19

because they were able to lock up all

27:20

the supply components. That's another

27:22

thing that people don't really talk

27:23

about is their supply chain and their

27:25

ability to work with partners and secure

27:28

secure component inventory.

27:30

>> Is there still energy fud that we would

27:33

run into an energy bottleneck before we

27:34

run into a chip bottleneck?

27:36

>> So, so Jensen said this last week on a

27:39

Bloomberg interview that there are a lot

27:41

of bottlenecks including um

27:43

data center shell, power, and all those

27:46

things, uh components, um energy,

27:49

whatever. So, all those things that

27:50

sounds really bad, right? And then right

27:52

after that he said, "I think we have the

27:55

chip industry has enough supply to

27:57

double their revenue every year."

27:58

Basically implying Nvidia has enough

28:00

supply

28:01

uh for for energy and all that stuff. No

28:03

one is pricing that in. So, everyone

28:06

talks about bottlenecks. Nvidia CEO just

28:08

basically told you on Friday that they

28:11

have enough

28:12

uh

28:12

enough supply chain and all that

28:15

bottleneck stuff to double revenue every

28:16

year. No one, you know, Nvidia's revenue

28:20

uh

28:21

estimates for next year are a lot lower

28:22

than double, I'll tell you that.

28:25

>> Do you think the market

28:26

uh

28:27

prices in just how much of almost every

28:31

important AI company in every category

28:34

Nvidia actually owns?

28:36

Like it it feels like every single like

28:38

we're constantly focused on who's going

28:41

to raise CapEx next and and and and

28:44

where is this quarter coming in. And it

28:45

feels like in two or three years people

28:48

will look at Nvidia's balance sheet and

28:50

be like, wait, they have what what I

28:52

imagine then will be, you know,

28:55

could could end up being a trillion

28:56

dollar plus of just like ownership in

28:59

all of these great companies, which

29:01

again just goes back to the advantages

29:03

of that early scale while they're, you

29:06

know, while while all these companies

29:08

are trying to compete away Nvidia's

29:10

margins and all these different things,

29:12

they've been able to accumulate again

29:14

positions in in in all of these

29:16

incredible companies. I mean, we saw the

29:18

SSI news uh yesterday is a great example

29:22

of that.

29:23

Um but but how do you look how do you

29:24

see it?

29:25

>> So, I I think look at Jensen's history

29:28

in investing in these companies and

29:30

CoreWeave and see how much money they

29:31

made. Uh they just bought stake in uh

29:34

the optical companies Lumentum and

29:36

Coherent. Um

29:38

Jensen is enabling the future cuz he

29:40

sees this overwhelming tidal of demand

29:43

and he needs these companies to be able

29:45

to build up their supply chain uh and to

29:47

give uh

29:49

supplies and chips to to Nvidia. So,

29:51

they can actually ramp very hard. Um you

29:54

know, everyone's freaking out that this

29:56

is vendor financing. What if

29:58

hyperscale GPU cloud is so profitable

30:01

and these companies need capital to

30:03

build up that supply so they can uh

30:07

serve the GPU cloud uh services over the

30:09

next year or two.

30:11

Maybe Jensen sees that coming like he

30:12

did with all these other companies like

30:14

CoreWeave.

30:15

And uh that's why he's investing in

30:18

these companies to be able to expand

30:20

their ability to make the components uh

30:22

the industry needs. So, I I think you're

30:24

exactly right. In in a year, two, three

30:26

years, uh Nvidia's going to have like

30:29

all these stakes in these companies and

30:31

it's going to look like uh he was a good

30:33

investor um

30:34

cuz he has been in the past.

30:37

I mean, I

30:38

think about Melano.

30:39

>> a leather jacket for like five grand and

30:41

sell it for a million dollars. I don't

30:42

know what else you need to see.

30:44

>> I mean, I think think about that one.

30:45

>> secret bidder? Did you win that?

30:47

>> No, I did

30:48

>> We got to get you a jacket.

30:50

Uh, the real the real question is

30:52

how long until someone distills a jacket

30:55

and open sources it you can get a dupe

30:57

of a Jensen jacket for two bucks. That's

31:00

what I want. Anyway, thank you so much

31:02

for coming on the show. Jordy, you got

31:03

anything else?

31:04

>> Uh, this was great.

31:05

>> Yeah, this was great. Thanks so much.

31:07

>> Thanks for Thanks for putting up with

31:09

all of our jokes.

31:10

>> Yeah.

31:10

>> Hopefully this this becomes the lucky

31:12

charm for the markets.

31:14

>> Yes, I agree. [laughter]

31:15

>> I I agree.

31:17

>> I agree.

31:17

>> We'll talk to you

31:18

>> is in. Great to see you, Tay.

31:19

>> Have a good rest of your week.

Interactive Summary

The speaker, Take-Two, discusses the current negative sentiment in the AI market, attributing it to geopolitical events and FUD spread by media. He addresses concerns about Meta's AI investments, clarifying that Meta is fully committed to AI, investing in open-source models, and dramatically raising CapEx. He then covers Nvidia's strategy to unite the tech industry against Anthropic regarding open-source AI regulations, and debunks the idea that models like Kimmy will reduce compute demand, arguing instead for exponential growth driven by agentic AI and potential Recursive Self-Improvement (RSI). Take-Two emphasizes the overwhelming demand for compute, citing AMD's increased forecasts and executives regretting pulling back on purchases. He also highlights Nvidia's strategic advantages through its robust supply chain control and investments in other AI companies, dismissing FUD around vendor financing and energy bottlenecks.

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