HEADING FOR A NEARLY 19%

DECLINE DURING THAT SPAN. RIGHT

NOW, THOSE SHARES OFF 3% IN

TODAY'S TRADING, WHICH NOW

TAKES US ALL TO OUR TALK OF THE

TAPE, IS THE MARKET ROTATION

HERE TO STAY? LET'S ASK THE

WHARTON SCHOOL PROFESSOR OF

FINANCE WISDOMTREE CHIEF

ECONOMIST JEREMY SIEGEL.

PROFESSOR SIEGEL, THANK YOU

VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US HERE.

AS I'VE LAID OUT THE MARKET

ACTION AND WE KIND OF ALLUDE TO

WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT

WEEK WITH THE FED AND INTEREST

RATES. JUST HOW MUCH OF THIS

MARKET RIGHT NOW IS GOING TO BE

DEPENDENT ON JUST A HANDFUL OF

KEY SECTORS. AND THEN, OF

COURSE, FUTURE INTEREST RATE

POLICY?

>> YEAH, BOTH.

>> I MEAN.

>> IT'S SOME OF THE

FLUCTUATIONS HAVE BEEN WILD. I

THINK WEDNESDAY WAS THE BIGGEST

DROP OF MAG-7 VERSUS THE S&P IN

FOUR YEARS. AND YOU KNOW

THERE'S SOME SOME ANALYSTS I'D

SAY SHOULD WE EVEN CALL IT THE

MAG MAGNIFICENT SEVEN ANYMORE.

YOU KNOW WHAT MOONSHOT

COMPETITION MARGIN EROSION. AND

ON TOP OF THAT, AS YOU RIGHTLY

MENTIONED, NEXT WEEK IS VERY

IMPORTANT. WHAT WHAT IS KEVIN

WARSH THINK OF THIS OIL

INCREASE? YOU KNOW, TWO WEEKS

AGO WE HAD WTI AT 70. NOW WTI

IS AT 90. AND YOU YOU YOU WERE

RIGHT. THERE'S A LOT OF HOPE.

BUT HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL. AND

WE WE'VE SEEN HOPES BEING

DASHED IN IN THE PAST. WHAT IS

WARSH THINK OF THIS. I MEAN IS

HE IS HE WILLING TO LOOK PAST

THIS OR NOT. AND BY THE WAY, I

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE

SOME HAWKISH DISSENTS IN THE

MEETING ON WEDNESDAY.

>> IN YEARS PAST, PROFESSOR,

WE'VE WE'VE HEARD AND MAYBE

HEARD SOME KIND OF, I GUESS

MAYBE SARCASM WITH REGARD TO

ONE WORD IN PARTICULAR THAT

CAME OUT OF THE FED AND JAY

POWELL'S FED BACK IN THE DAY.

THAT WAS THE WORD TRANSITORY.

WE DON'T REALLY USE IT THAT

MUCH ANYMORE THESE DAYS. BUT

STILL, THERE'S A FEELING THAT

THE THE TRANSITORY OR

TRANSITORY NATURE OF INFLATION

IS GOING TO BE A HUGE FOCUS FOR

THE FED, FOR INVESTORS. IS

THERE MAYBE THAT HAWKISH TILT?

BECAUSE WE DON'T WANT TO EVER

VIEW SOMETHING AS TRANSITORY IN

TERMS OF INFLATIONARY PRESSURES

AND THEN BE CAUGHT AT LEAST

BLINDSIDED BY IT?

>> YOU'RE PERFECTLY RIGHT. I

MEAN, TRANSITORY UNDER POWELL,

YOU KNOW, DESCRIBING THE COVID

INFLATION, YOU KNOW, REALLY

BECAME A A WORD LIKE HE SAID,

LET'S RETIRE THAT WORD SO THAT

THAT FEAR. BUT BUT THERE IS A

GOOD GOOD POINT. I MEAN, YOU

KNOW, LET'S HOPE THIS WAR IS

GOING TO BE OVER. OIL IS GOING

TO GO BACK DOWN. OIL WILL BE IN

SURPLUS GOING BACK TO 60. SO

THIS IS A MUCH BETTER

TRANSITORY STORY, HONESTLY,

THAN ANYTHING OVER COVID, WHEN

THE GOVERNMENT WAS SPENDING

TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS OF

DOLLARS AND THE FED WAS, YOU

KNOW, I THINK RECKLESSLY JUST

EXPANDING THE MONEY SUPPLY. SO

THERE IS A CASE THAT IF YOU

TAKE WHAT'S CALLED THOSE LONG

TERM EXPECTATIONS, THE

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INFLATION

PROTECTED BONDS AND THE

STANDARD BONDS, WE HAVE NOT

SEEN ANYWHERE NEAR AS MUCH OF A

WIDENING SOMETHING. THE FED

CALLS A FIVE YEAR, FIVE YEAR,

WHICH IS LOOKING BEYOND THE

FIVE YEARS, WHICH IS CYCLICAL

AND FAR OUT, HAS NOT SEEN ANY

REALLY APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN

INFLATION EXPECTATION. NOW, IF

WARSH WANTS TO KEEP HOLDING AND

MAKES THE CASE FOR THAT, I'M

SURE HE'S GOING TO BRING THAT

UP. BUT THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE

SEEING INFLATION IN THAT. THOSE

CORE NUMBERS, BEYOND JUST THE

ENERGY THAT I THINK ARE GOING

TO SPEAK UP AND SAY, LISTEN,

YOU KNOW, I THINK IT'S TIME TO

RAISE AT LEAST A QUARTER OF A

POINT. SO I'M REALLY WEDNESDAY

IS GOING TO BE A REALLY IN

IMPORTANT DAY IN IN ADDITION TO

ALL THESE EARNINGS, OF COURSE,

THAT ARE COMING OUT EVERY DAY.

>> HOW MUCH DO INTEREST RATE

EXPECTATIONS AND WHAT EXACTLY

THEY COULD DO FROM HERE FACTOR

INTO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MARKET

IN YOUR MIND IS FAIR, VALUED,

OVERVALUED, OR UNDERVALUED? I

WANT TO JUST, YOU KNOW, EARLIER

TODAY, WE HAD TALKED ON THE

HALFTIME REPORT ABOUT BANK OF

AMERICA'S MICHAEL HARTNETT

ISSUING A NOTE TO CLIENTS

SAYING THAT THEY DO NOT YET SEE

THE LEVEL OF INTEREST RATES AS

A THREAT TO ANYTHING BUT BONDS,

BULL MARKET IN RISK ASSETS. I

MEAN, THAT MEANS EVEN AT 4.7%

APPROACHING FIVE, THAT IT'S NOT

AN AREA THAT WE THINK IT'S

GOING TO DERAIL THE GROWTH AND

EARNINGS THESIS AROUND THE

FUNDAMENTALS IN THE MARKET.

DOES THAT SEEM TO CLICK WITH

WHAT YOUR RESEARCH AND WHAT

YOUR ANALYSIS SAYS ABOUT THE

MARKET THESE DAYS?

>> NOT NOT YET A THREAT. BUT

YOU KNOW, WE'RE GETTING CLOSE.

WE'RE GETTING CLOSE TO THE

HIGHS OF THE INTEREST RATES WE

SAW WHEN, YOU KNOW, WHEN POWELL

WAS STEPPING ON THE BRAKES,

REALLY HARD TO TO STOP A MUCH

HIGHER INFLATION THREE AND FOUR

YEARS AGO NOW. YOU KNOW, I LIKE

TO TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT'S CALLED

THE YOU KNOW, THE TIPS YIELD,

THE INFLATION ADJUSTED YIELD.

THAT TEN YEAR HAS GONE TO 2.5%.

NOW, YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU HAVE A

20PE STOCK MARKET, WHICH IS

PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE HAVE NOW

WITH THESE DECLINES. THAT'S A

5% YIELD REAL ON THE MARKET. SO

THERE'S STILL A MARGIN THERE,

2.5% THAT'S A LITTLE BIT LOWER

THAN HISTORICALLY. BUT IT'S

STILL AN EDGE THAT I THINK IS

IMPORTANT ON STOCKS VERSUS

BONDS. SO I WOULD AGREE NOT YET

A THREAT. BUT IF WE SEE THOSE

REAL YIELDS CONTINUE TO RISE

THERE'S NO QUESTION. I MEAN

THAT'S THE OTHER