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Demis Hassabis: Why AGI is Bigger than the Industrial Revolution & Where Are The Bottlenecks in AI

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Demis Hassabis: Why AGI is Bigger than the Industrial Revolution & Where Are The Bottlenecks in AI

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953 segments

0:00

I would say about 90% of the

0:01

breakthroughs that underpin the modern

0:03

AI industry were done either by Google

0:05

brain or Google research or deep mind.

0:07

So one of our groups the returns are

0:08

kind of still very substantial although

0:10

they're a bit less than they were

0:12

obviously at the start of all of this

0:13

scaling. We have amazing guests on the

0:15

show but very few honestly will be

0:17

considered in the same realm as Newton

0:19

Turing Einstein. Our guest today is one

0:21

of the greatest minds on the planet and

0:23

I consider myself incredibly lucky to

0:25

have had the chance to sit down with

0:27

him. Those labs that have capability to

0:29

invent new algorithmic ideas are going

0:32

to start having bigger advantage over

0:33

the next few years as the last set of

0:35

ideas all the juices being rung out of

0:37

them.

0:37

>> This is a truly special one and one that

0:39

I'll remember for a very long time.

0:41

>> I think we could probably get 30 40%

0:43

more efficiency out of our national

0:45

grids.

0:45

>> Enjoy the episode and I so appreciate

0:47

the time we had with a very special

0:49

human being.

0:49

>> I sometimes quantify the coming of AGI

0:51

is 10 times the industrial revolution at

0:53

10 times the speed. Thrilled to welcome

0:55

Damis Albus at Deep Mind. Ready to go.

1:11

>> Deis, I'm so excited to be doing this.

1:13

Thank you so much for joining me today.

1:15

>> Great to be here.

1:15

>> Now, there are many places that we could

1:17

have start, but I was watching actually

1:19

the documentary that you did, which was

1:20

fantastic, and I actually wanted to

1:22

start on AGI. Mhm.

1:24

>> Definitions are very varying. You've

1:26

been very thoughtful about what it means

1:28

to you.

1:29

>> And so I wanted to start, can you

1:30

explain to me how you think about it

1:32

today so we get that as a kind of ground

1:34

center?

1:35

>> Yeah. Uh well, we've we've always

1:37

defined we've been very consistent how

1:38

we define AGI as basically a system that

1:41

exhibits all the cognitive capabilities

1:43

the human mind has. And that's important

1:45

because the brain is the only existence

1:48

proof we have that we know of in maybe

1:49

in the universe uh that general

1:51

intelligence is possible. So that for me

1:53

is the bar for what AGI should be.

1:56

>> It's the worst question. How close are

1:58

we?

2:00

Everyone everyone says different things

2:02

and it's very difficult when you have

2:05

you know very prominent figures saying

2:06

it could be as early as you know 2026

2:08

2027.

2:09

>> Yeah I mean I think look I've got a

2:10

probability distribution around um the

2:13

timings but I I would say there's a very

2:15

good chance of it being within the next

2:16

5 years. So that's not long at all.

2:19

>> Is that closer than you thought? Has

2:21

that changed over time?

2:22

>> Not really. I mean actually when you

2:24

when you uh it's funny um my co-founder

2:26

Shane Le who's chief scientist here um

2:29

uh when we started out Deep Mind back in

2:31

2010 he used to write blog posts sort of

2:33

predicting about uh when AGI would

2:36

happen. And bearing in mind in 2010 when

2:37

we started almost nobody was working in

2:39

AI and everyone thought AI

2:42

no one was reading it was a dead end.

2:44

No. And but they're still there on the

2:46

internet for people to check. And uh we

2:48

used to do this extrapolation of compute

2:50

and algorithmic uh progress. And

2:52

basically we predicted around 20 years

2:54

it would take from when we started out

2:56

and I think we're pretty much on track.

2:58

>> What are the biggest bottlenecks when

3:00

you look today? You know in in the

3:02

documentary you said you just never have

3:04

enough compute.

3:05

>> What are the biggest bottlenecks when

3:07

you look at where we are today?

3:08

>> I think compute is the big one. Not just

3:10

for the obvious reason of scaling up uh

3:13

your ideas and your systems as as you

3:15

know the scaling laws as they're called

3:17

you know keeping on building bigger and

3:18

bigger um architectures with more and

3:20

more parameters. Um and as you do that

3:22

you get more intelligent systems but the

3:25

other thing you need a lot of compute

3:26

for is for doing experiments. So um the

3:29

computers the cloud is our workbench

3:32

basically. So if you have a new idea, a

3:34

new algorithmic idea, but you want to

3:36

test it, you kind of got to test it at a

3:38

reasonable scale, otherwise it won't

3:40

hold when you actually put it into the

3:42

main system. So um you need quite a lot

3:45

of compute if you have a lot of

3:46

researchers with lots of new ideas.

3:48

>> You mentioned the word scaling laws.

3:50

>> A lot of people suggest that we're

3:52

hitting scaling laws and we're starting

3:53

to see that plateauing effect.

3:55

>> Yeah.

3:55

>> Do you think that's true?

3:57

>> No, I don't think so. I think it's a bit

3:58

more nuanced than that. So um of course

4:01

when uh the leading companies all

4:04

started building these large language

4:05

models you're getting enormous jumps

4:07

with each generation of new system. Um

4:10

you know maybe they're almost like

4:11

doubling in performance. Uh at some

4:13

point that had to slow down. So it's not

4:15

kind of continuing to be exponential but

4:17

that doesn't mean there isn't great

4:19

returns uh still for scaling the

4:22

existing you know systems up further.

4:24

So, and we and the other frontier labs

4:26

are getting uh a lot of great returns on

4:29

on that kind of compute expansion. Um,

4:32

so I would say the returns are kind of

4:35

um still very substantial, although

4:37

they're a bit less than they were

4:38

obviously at the start of all of this

4:40

scaling.

4:40

>> Where are we behind where you thought we

4:43

would be?

4:44

>> Um, I think actually in most areas we

4:47

are ahead of where I thought we would

4:49

be. If you think about things like um

4:52

the video models or um even now with our

4:55

newest systems like Genie, they're

4:56

interactive world models. Um which I

4:59

think is kind of incredible if you sort

5:01

of step back and think about it. I think

5:02

if you'd shown me that 5 10 years ago, I

5:05

would have been pretty amazed. Um so I

5:08

think in most domains we're we we are

5:10

ahead of where um the field thought. Um

5:13

there's still some big things missing

5:14

though like continual learning. These

5:16

systems don't learn uh after you finish

5:18

training them, after you put them out

5:20

into the into the world. You know,

5:21

they're not very good at learning

5:22

further things. And I think some

5:24

critical capabilities that I'm sorry to

5:27

ask blunt and basic questions. Why do we

5:28

not have continuous learning today?

5:30

>> Um well, people haven't quite figured

5:32

out yet and all the leading labs are

5:33

working on this like how to integrate

5:35

new learning into the existing systems

5:39

that you know you spent months training.

5:41

Um so of course the brain does this very

5:44

elegantly, right? And um probably

5:46

through things like sleep reinforcement

5:48

learning. So you know you just kind of

5:50

get consolidation it's called in the

5:52

brain where you know your memories

5:54

during the day are replayed and then

5:56

some of that information is elegantly

5:58

incorporated into your existing

6:00

knowledge base and perhaps we I thought

6:02

for a while maybe we need something like

6:04

that uh to incorporate new information

6:07

along with uh uh the existing

6:09

information base. You mentioned video

6:11

models, you mentioned kind of media and

6:13

image. It seems that DeepMind has

6:16

progressed very quickly and caught up

6:19

slashovertaken other providers.

6:22

>> I think I've tweeted I think you liked

6:24

it, but I basically tweeted um what I

6:27

used and how it's changed over time and

6:28

Deep Mind Now is my number one for

6:30

research for new shows.

6:31

>> It wasn't that way before. what has led

6:34

to the acceleration and progression of

6:36

deep mind in a way that it wasn't maybe

6:39

there 2 to 3 years ago?

6:40

>> Yeah. Well, we made some organizational

6:42

changes. So, I think we've always had

6:44

the deepest and broadest research bench

6:46

at Google and at DeepMind. I mean, if

6:48

you look at the last decade uh or plus,

6:51

you know, 15 years, but I would say

6:53

about 90% of the breakthroughs that

6:55

underpin the modern AI industry were

6:57

done by either by Google Brain or uh

7:00

Google research or deep mind. one of our

7:02

groups um if you think of like Alph Go

7:04

and reinforcement learning and of course

7:06

transformers you know these are all the

7:08

key breakthroughs so I would back us to

7:11

sort of um make those breakthroughs in

7:13

the future uh if there are any missing

7:15

ones um and I think we've basically

7:17

helped put together all the talent from

7:20

around the company sort of pushing in

7:21

one direction uh and then we talked

7:23

earlier just about you know compute

7:25

resources it was also about combining

7:27

all of our resources together so we

7:29

could build the biggest models rather

7:30

than having two or three versions uh

7:32

around the the company. So I think a lot

7:35

of it was assembling together all the

7:37

ingredients we already had and then kind

7:39

of pushing with relentless sort of focus

7:41

and and and pace um acting almost like a

7:44

startup really uh to get back to the the

7:46

frontier and and be ahead in in many

7:48

areas.

7:49

>> You say if anyone's going to do the

7:50

breakthrough it could and should be us.

7:53

When you think about that is continuous

7:54

learning the next breakthrough that

7:55

you're most excited by?

7:57

>> I think there's quite a few things that

7:58

are missing. There's there's continual

8:00

learning. I think there's a lot of uh I

8:03

think a lot of mileage in looking at

8:05

different memory systems. Um at the

8:07

moment we have these long context

8:08

windows which are kind of a bit brute

8:09

force. You just put everything in them.

8:11

Um I think there's there's there's a lot

8:13

of uh uh interesting probably

8:15

architectures to be invented there. Um

8:17

and then there's stuff like uh long-term

8:19

planning, you know, hierarchical

8:21

planning. These systems are not very

8:23

good at planning at long time horizons,

8:25

you know, many years into the future. uh

8:27

which we as you know with our minds we

8:29

can do so um there's quite a lot of uh

8:32

uh problems I think that's still left to

8:34

overcome maybe one of the biggest is

8:36

consistency so you know the I sometimes

8:38

call these systems jagged intelligences

8:40

because they're really amazing at

8:41

certain things uh when you pose the

8:44

question in a certain way but in if you

8:46

pose a question in a slightly different

8:48

way they can actually still fail at

8:49

quite elementary things so a general

8:51

intelligence shouldn't be that sort of

8:54

jagged

8:54

>> when you reposition files and you set up

8:56

agents to perform in certain ways and

8:58

then the files fall over configure it

9:00

completely falls over.

9:01

>> Exactly.

9:02

>> 100%.

9:03

>> That's a disaster.

9:04

>> Yeah. Well, I mean the general

9:05

intelligence, you know, if you think

9:06

about how our minds work, it shouldn't

9:08

have those kinds of holes in it.

9:10

>> We said about a plateauing of scaling

9:12

was everyone talks about a

9:13

commoditization of models in terms of

9:15

capabilities. Do you think we see that

9:16

or do you think we see one to two

9:18

continuously accelerate ahead of the

9:19

others? Yeah, I feel like uh maybe you

9:22

know the the the the three or four

9:25

leading labs now of which we're one I

9:27

think the gap is sort of um starting to

9:29

pull away because uh a lot of these

9:31

tools also of course help you build the

9:33

next generation. So things like coding

9:35

tools, math tools and it's getting

9:37

harder and harder I would say to kind of

9:39

ek out the same uh gains from just the

9:43

same ideas. So I think those labs that

9:46

have capability to you know invent new

9:49

algorithmic ideas are going to start

9:51

having bigger advantage over the next

9:53

few years as as the the last set of

9:55

ideas are sort of um you know all the

9:58

juices being rung out of them.

9:59

>> I mean you know you were very open with

10:01

a lot of your research for years and we

10:03

see many very good quality open models.

10:06

How do you think about the future of

10:07

open? I have many portfolio companies

10:09

that kind of use frontier models and

10:10

then they use that to set a benchmark

10:12

and then they use open models to kind of

10:14

get as close as possible but with more

10:15

cost effectiveness.

10:17

>> What does that future look like?

10:19

>> Yeah, I think it's probably similar to

10:20

what we're seeing today. I mean we're

10:22

we're big supporters of of open science

10:24

and and open models and we've done many

10:26

many things obviously from from the

10:28

original Transformers to to AlphaFold

10:31

you know these are all uh things we sort

10:33

of given out into the world and to help

10:35

the the the research community and we

10:37

plan to continue to do that especially

10:39

in applied domains you know scientific

10:41

domains applying AI to science which is

10:43

obviously my passion um but uh I I think

10:47

increasingly um you know what you're

10:49

going to see is the open source models

10:51

probably one step back from the absolute

10:53

frontier. Um you know it usually takes

10:55

about 6 months for the open source

10:57

community to sort of reimplement and

10:58

figure out what those ideas are. Um but

11:01

we are also uh pushing hard on a kind of

11:04

suite of open source models called Gemma

11:06

which are you know we're determined to

11:07

kind of make best-in-class for their

11:09

sizes. So specifically for small

11:12

developers or um academics uh or or you

11:15

know the beginnings of a startup I think

11:17

they're perfect for that and also edge

11:18

computing too. So we're very interested

11:20

in open source models for certain types

11:22

of um applications.

11:25

>> How do you think about a world post

11:27

LLMs? You have different people with

11:30

different views. You Yan Lun with very

11:32

different views.

11:33

>> For me, I don't think it's uh you know,

11:34

I kind of disagree with Yan on a few

11:37

things in terms of um I think there

11:40

might be there's a 50/50 chance there's

11:42

some things maybe missing that we still

11:43

need to make breakthroughs in perhaps

11:45

their world models. um uh these kinds of

11:48

uh approaches. But my betting is uh

11:51

pretty strongly is we've seen how

11:52

successful these foundation models have

11:54

been. They can do incredibly impressive

11:56

things. I don't think that's going to go

11:58

away. We're still seeing seeing you know

12:00

gains from the returns from the scaling

12:02

laws. Um so my I think the only question

12:05

really is when you think about a future

12:07

AGI system is you know is an LLM

12:10

foundation model going to be the key

12:13

component only or is it the total system

12:16

right so I just think it's it's a

12:18

question of um uh you know is there

12:20

anything else needed not is it not I

12:22

don't think it's going to get replaced I

12:23

think it's going to get built on top of

12:24

these foundation models just like the

12:26

way we do with our world models

12:28

>> when we think about that future 5 years

12:30

out as you said potentially with AGI

12:32

what does that world look like? Many

12:34

people have different concerns.

12:36

>> Yeah.

12:37

>> If we just start generally, what does

12:38

that world look like to you?

12:39

>> I think on the positive side and the

12:41

things obviously I've I've spent my

12:43

whole career in life building towards

12:45

AGI is I think it will be the ultimate

12:48

tool for science and medicine. So in

12:51

terms of advancing scientific discovery

12:53

um finding cures to diseases, I think we

12:56

need that kind of technology. And so I'm

12:58

hoping um in 5 years plus time we'll be

13:00

sort of entering a new golden era,

13:02

golden age of scientific discovery.

13:04

>> Uh so my mother's got multiple cerosis.

13:06

So it's like something it's the thing

13:07

that I'm always most excited about. The

13:09

thing I worry about is actually kind of

13:10

drug discovery, the process of getting

13:12

it through all the trials and knowing

13:15

that it takes a decade before my mother

13:17

will actually get any benefits from it.

13:20

>> How do we solve that?

13:22

>> I think we'll get to that point soon.

13:23

First of all, what we're doing is, you

13:25

know, after we did the alpha fold

13:26

project to do protein folding, um, then

13:28

we spun out a company called Isomorphic

13:30

Labs, which is doing extremely well. And

13:33

that is supposed to, you know, the idea

13:35

there is we're focusing on solving the

13:36

rest of the drug discovery process,

13:38

which is a lot of chemistry, designing

13:40

the compounds, uh, checking it's not

13:42

toxic and all the different properties

13:43

you need for for drugs to be safe. Um, I

13:46

think we'll have that whole drug design

13:48

engine ready in, you know, the next 5

13:51

plus 5 to 10 years. then you're right.

13:53

The next problem is the clinical trials

13:56

still take uh many many years, right? Um

13:59

and but I think AI can help there in

14:01

terms of um maybe simulating uh parts of

14:05

the human uh metabolism. Um also

14:08

stratifying patients to make sure that

14:10

certain patients get exactly the right

14:12

type of drug that's suitable for their

14:15

uh genomic makeup. Um and so I think AI

14:18

can help there too. But I think the real

14:20

revolution will come when a few maybe a

14:23

dozen or so AI drugs get through the

14:25

whole process. Uh and then the

14:27

government and the regulatory bodies see

14:28

that and they have enough data to sort

14:31

of uh back test the predictions of those

14:33

models and then maybe what we can do

14:35

will be in the future where maybe 10

14:37

further years where um we can really

14:40

just trust the predictions uh that the

14:42

models are making and actually then

14:44

maybe skip out some steps perhaps like

14:46

the animal testing is not needed

14:47

anymore. maybe we can go up the dosage

14:49

uh uh uh ladder quicker um because you

14:52

can rely on these models. So I think we

14:54

got to do in two steps. Solve the drug

14:56

design problem first and then look at

14:58

the regulatory uh length of time it

15:01

takes.

15:01

>> Speaking of regulatory AI safety is a

15:04

big topic and a big concern. I think it

15:06

was again I watched it last night over

15:08

dinner which was a great watch which is

15:10

obviously the documentary and I think it

15:11

was Stephen Hawking who said we must get

15:12

it right because we might not get

15:14

another chance.

15:16

Do you think that's right?

15:18

>> Yeah, I do think that's right. I think

15:20

that is the the the the stakes uh that

15:23

that uh you know we have to deal with

15:25

and um you know there's two things I

15:28

worry about. One is the misuse of these

15:30

systems by bad actors and they can be

15:32

repurposed. These are dualpurpose

15:34

technologies. They can be used for

15:35

incredible good in science and health as

15:37

we've just discussed but they can also

15:39

be repurposed for harmful ends by a bad

15:41

actor. So that's one issue. Second issue

15:43

is a technical one. Making sure these

15:46

systems as they get more powerful, not

15:48

today's systems, but maybe in a year or

15:49

two's time when they become more

15:51

agentic, more autonomous, as we get

15:53

towards AGI, um can they be kept on the

15:56

guardrails that we want. Um, and I think

15:59

regulation, the right kind of regulation

16:01

could help here in terms of making sure

16:03

there's at least sort of minimum

16:04

standards from all of the uh uh leading

16:07

providers, but it needs to ideally be a

16:10

kind of international uh standards.

16:13

>> What is the right kind of regulation?

16:15

And again, I'm kind of quoting yourself

16:17

back from this documentary. You're like,

16:18

I think we need more global

16:19

coordination, which worries me because

16:21

we're getting worse at it.

16:22

>> Yes.

16:23

>> Which I think would be an unwavering

16:25

truth.

16:25

>> Yes, for sure. I mean, that's it's sort

16:27

of crazy the timing that we're in,

16:29

right, with this most consequential

16:30

maybe technology the world's ever seen.

16:33

Um, at the same time as a very

16:35

fragmented sort of international uh uh

16:38

system and uh it's not ideal, but I

16:41

think we're going to have to try and do

16:42

the best we can to at least come up with

16:44

a sort of set of min maybe minimum

16:47

standards, some benchmarks that test for

16:50

undesirable properties. For example,

16:52

deception. you don't you know nobody

16:54

wants should be building systems that

16:55

are capable of deception because then um

16:58

they could be getting around other

16:59

safeguards u and then I imagine you know

17:02

if things go well some kind of

17:04

certification process that basically

17:07

it's almost like a kite mark of you know

17:09

quality that this model um has certain

17:13

uh uh safeguards and certain guarantees

17:16

uh and so therefore um consumers and

17:18

companies can safely sort of build on

17:21

top of it and I think that is how it

17:23

should go ideally. Um but it does have

17:26

to be international because of course

17:28

these systems are crossborder and you

17:30

know they're they're cross territory.

17:32

>> Who is that like ultimate verification

17:34

system? I you know you obviously started

17:36

with theme park.

17:37

>> Yes.

17:37

>> Uh

17:39

yeah brilliant. Don't put the burgers

17:41

down too close to the roller coaster. Um

17:44

but you know obviously as a media

17:45

company I go through any media platform

17:47

saying I don't know what's real or fake.

17:49

I'm always having to ask what's real or

17:51

fake. Who is that arbiter of

17:53

verification?

17:54

>> Yeah. Well, I think there I mean

17:56

ultimately it's got to be government I

17:57

think but um you know the kind of

18:00

technical bodies that would um be able

18:03

to do the technical work would be like

18:05

maybe the AI safety institutes you know

18:07

there's a very good one in the UK that

18:09

uh uh you know was set up under Prime

18:11

Minister Sak and I think is doing great

18:14

work and there's one in the US and maybe

18:16

some of the leading countries that have

18:18

the best research should also have an

18:20

equivalent body that is staffed with

18:23

highquality researchers too um that can

18:25

actually evaluate and audit these kinds

18:28

of systems uh against certain benchmarks

18:31

and um I kind of like independently

18:33

check whether they are meeting the right

18:36

standards.

18:36

>> If I could give you like a magic wand

18:38

that was only applicable to AI safety

18:40

sav uh what would be your implementation

18:44

idea program that you would put in place

18:46

with this magic wand? Yeah, I think we

18:48

need some kind of um uh international

18:51

body maybe similar to the atomic agency

18:54

something like that that perhaps the the

18:57

AI safety institutes sort of feed into

18:59

and the research community has to also

19:01

do this and be involved in like what are

19:02

the right set of benchmarks to check

19:04

what types of traits what types of

19:06

capabilities uh maybe there are other

19:08

safeguards too like um you know it's it

19:11

wouldn't be desirable to have uh AI

19:14

systems um output tokens that are not

19:17

human readable. So you know in some kind

19:19

of machine language that we couldn't

19:21

understand. I think that would in you

19:23

know introduce a new vulnerability. So

19:24

there's quite a few sort of things like

19:26

that which I think most of the leading

19:28

labs uh would agree are probably not

19:31

best to do. Um and then these uh these

19:34

bodies would uh you know these

19:36

institutions would test against those

19:38

things and I think that would give the

19:39

public confidence and um and you know

19:42

academia could be involved as well as

19:43

well as civil society that these uh

19:45

systems which are going to get

19:46

incredibly powerful um have been

19:49

independently uh checked and audited.

19:51

>> That's it. Your magic wand's done now.

19:53

That was the one.

19:54

>> Maybe I used on the wrong thing but

19:56

>> time will tell.

19:57

>> Yes. Exactly. you said there about um

19:59

science being one of the most exciting

20:01

areas in five years time.

20:03

>> I have to ask it because it's one of the

20:05

biggest concerns is the labor

20:06

displacement problem. I just had Mark

20:08

Andre on the show actually and he said

20:09

that I was a he said I was a Marxist for

20:12

I know which I was like for bringing

20:15

Yeah. Mark's wonderful so I'm not

20:18

blaming him but he was like it's

20:19

completely rubbish.

20:20

>> Yeah.

20:20

>> I don't agree with it at all. We've

20:22

always over pass overcome it. M

20:25

>> how do you think about the labor

20:26

displacement problem when you look at

20:27

how truly capable these systems are

20:29

>> and what that does to labor markets?

20:31

>> Well, certainly you know in the past uh

20:33

with every new revolutionary technology

20:35

there's been a lot of uh jobs uh

20:38

disruption. So that's for sure and I

20:39

think that's definitely going to happen.

20:40

So a lot of old jobs you know go away or

20:43

not viable anymore but then actually uh

20:45

the history of it is that um a whole set

20:47

of new jobs arrive that maybe one can't

20:50

even imagine before and those are high

20:52

quality higher paying. So that's the

20:54

normal course. Of course you have to be

20:56

very careful to say this time is

20:57

different and um I guess that's what

21:00

people like Mark are claiming is like

21:01

you know it's the same as as as the last

21:03

sort of you know 10 massive

21:05

breakthroughs like the internet, mobile

21:06

and so on. Um I do think this is going

21:08

to be bigger uh than all of those

21:11

previous uh uh breakthroughs uh

21:14

technological breakthroughs. I mean I

21:15

sometimes quantify like AGI at the

21:18

coming of AGI as like 10 times the

21:20

industrial revolution uh at 10 times the

21:23

speed. So unfolding over a decade

21:25

instead of a century. So if you you know

21:27

I've been reading a lot about the

21:28

industrial revolution. There's a lot of

21:29

great books about it and um that caused

21:32

a huge amount of upheaval as well as a

21:35

lot of advances. I mean we wouldn't have

21:36

modern medicine today. Child mortality

21:38

was at 40% back in back pre-industrial

21:41

revolution. So things things you

21:42

wouldn't want it not to have happened

21:44

but ideally this time around we uh

21:47

mitigate some of the downsides a bit

21:49

better than we did during the industrial

21:50

revolution. I often listen to amazing

21:53

voices like yours and I get very excited

21:55

by how fast it's coming. Yeah. And then

21:56

I try and stop myself from being too

21:58

useful and think ah I should be more

22:00

wise and I'm told that you know we

22:02

always overestimate what can be done in

22:04

a year and underestimate what can be

22:05

done in 10.

22:06

>> Is that the truth here or is it actually

22:09

coming faster than we

22:10

>> No, I I think that's still the truth. I

22:11

mean maybe all the both time scales of

22:13

short-term and long-term are nearer than

22:15

than than other technologies. But I do

22:17

think like literally today as of today

22:20

and in the next year things are a bit

22:22

overhyped in AI. I mean there couldn't

22:24

be any more hyped in some ways. Uh but

22:26

on the other hand interestingly I still

22:29

think it's still very underappreciated

22:31

how revolutionary this is going to be in

22:33

the in the sort of time scale of about

22:35

10 years. So we could call that long

22:37

term. So there's still that dichotomy

22:40

even even today with AI

22:42

>> with the concern around labor markets.

22:45

There's also a concern around income

22:46

inequality and the concentration of

22:48

wealth to few players.

22:49

>> How do you see that shaping out with the

22:53

comment on industrial revolution and

22:54

what happens there?

22:55

>> Well, I think there's different ways

22:56

that could play out. So, um, you know,

22:59

maybe pension funds should be buying

23:01

into all the big AI companies and making

23:04

sure that everyone has a piece of that

23:07

or sovereign funds, maybe everyone,

23:08

every country should have a sovereign

23:10

wealth fund that does that. that would

23:11

be the sort of um uh investment way of

23:14

doing it. I think also there needs to be

23:16

thinking thought about if there is uh

23:19

this massive uh productivity gain but

23:22

it's sort of narrow where that occurs

23:24

you know how do we redistribute and and

23:26

how do we distribute that um so that

23:28

everyone benefits from uh uh these huge

23:31

gains and I can see all sorts of ways

23:32

that could be done including like

23:34

providing sort of infrastructure and

23:35

other things um with that additional

23:38

productivity gain I mean there could be

23:40

unbelievable things happening in the 5

23:42

to 10 year time scale including like a

23:44

breakthrough through in some kind of

23:46

renewable free energy. You know, maybe

23:48

we sold fusion. Uh we're working on

23:50

that, right, with with with our partners

23:52

at Commonwealth Fusion. Um uh I think AI

23:55

is going to usher in, you know, maybe we

23:57

have amazing new superconductors, better

24:00

batteries, you know, material science.

24:01

There's all sorts of ways I could see

24:03

that completely changing the nature of

24:05

the economy.

24:06

>> How how do we solve the energy crisis

24:08

that comes with an AI revolution? What

24:10

it means in terms of energy requirements

24:11

is unprecedented.

24:13

I know it's an incredibly hard question

24:15

which I'm delving from really hard

24:17

question to really but how do we solve

24:18

that unprecedented need for new energy?

24:20

>> Well, I think actually um AI will in the

24:24

in the medium to long run uh more than

24:26

pay for itself. I think in terms of

24:28

energy costs in so you know we work on

24:31

all these projects of like optimizing

24:33

existing infrastructure like optimizing

24:35

the grid. I think we could probably get

24:36

30 40% more efficiency out of our

24:39

national grids. Um and then there's like

24:42

modeling the climate and weather and we

24:44

have all sorts of the best kind of

24:45

weather modeling systems in in in the

24:48

world. So that helps us work out where

24:50

the effects are really happening to

24:51

mitigate that. Uh and then finally the

24:54

most exciting maybe is like these new

24:55

breakthrough technologies like fusion

24:57

like new batteries uh superconductors

25:00

that I think uh AI will be essential for

25:02

helping us reach and then I think we'll

25:05

be in a completely new energy situation

25:08

than we've ever been as humanity where

25:10

uh and then that will of course help

25:12

with things like the climate and

25:13

environment um and eventually also help

25:15

us um get into space much more cheaply

25:18

because if you have a you know an

25:20

incredible energy source like fusion

25:22

um then you have effectively unlimited

25:25

rocket fuel because you can just um

25:27

distill catalyze sea water.

25:30

>> I'm not going to ask you to solve space.

25:31

Don't worry then.

25:34

>> My my question was on being in the UK.

25:36

>> Yeah,

25:37

>> you're in London. I'm in London. I'm

25:38

very proud to be in the UK.

25:40

>> You have been, I'm sure, pushed or

25:42

prodded at every turn to move to the US.

25:46

>> Why have you stayed?

25:47

>> Well, um I should ask you that question,

25:49

too. But I think uh I think I saw in

25:51

London when we started Deep Mind as a

25:54

place that and and the UK in general and

25:56

and Europe in some to some degree

25:58

there's incredible talent here. You know

26:00

we've always had I don't know what it is

26:02

three or four of the top 10 universities

26:04

in the world with Cambridge and Oxford

26:05

Imperial or UCL these kind of

26:07

universities. So we're producing um kind

26:10

of the envy of the world really these

26:11

amazing graduates and PhD students. Um

26:14

we have incredible scientists here. We

26:16

got rich heritage of that all the way

26:18

from you know cheuring and and hawking

26:21

and Darwin uh Newton. So you know we

26:24

have this incredible history of of of

26:27

scientific breakthroughs and having

26:28

great thinkers. So I felt we had all the

26:31

ingredients uh and the talent and great

26:33

engineers here but it just hadn't been

26:35

galvanized into uh an ambitious startup

26:39

idea deep tech startup idea. and and

26:42

that's what I but I I felt it was

26:43

possible and I felt that there was

26:45

actually less competition here for that

26:48

sort of talent and we could even draw in

26:50

the best talent from the top uh European

26:52

universities and that's what it was like

26:54

in the early days of deep mind. So I

26:55

think it was a huge structural advantage

26:56

for us and then the final thing is maybe

26:59

being a bit away from the valley. There

27:00

is some disadvantage in that you're not

27:02

plugged into the network and the gossip

27:03

and the the latest trends and vibes and

27:05

all these things. We're a little bit out

27:07

of it here, but um it does I think it's

27:10

very conducive to to thinking deeply

27:12

about things, being more original about

27:14

how you think. And I think that's great

27:17

for things like deep tech where you know

27:19

you don't want to be distracted by the

27:20

latest fad. You want to you you know

27:23

it's going to be a 20 emission which is

27:24

what we knew at the beginning of deep

27:26

mind. So I think being a little bit away

27:28

from that um maelstrom is quite good. I

27:31

mean, Palmer lucky at Angel often talks

27:32

about being 400 miles away from the

27:34

valley. It's core to his kind of

27:35

innovative thinking.

27:36

>> Yes, we're a few thousand miles away,

27:38

but yeah,

27:38

>> terrible question. Will Europe have a

27:40

trillion dollar company? You know, you

27:42

see the Americans always bash us for our

27:44

lack of large companies. I ping Daniel

27:46

Ek and be like, "Come on, dude. That's

27:48

exactly

27:48

>> but we don't have a trillion dollar

27:50

company."

27:50

>> Not yet. I mean, Daniel may well get

27:52

there with one of his companies. You

27:53

know, Spotify, Hell Singh, I think those

27:55

are two good options. I think there's no

27:56

reason why we can't have that. I'm I'm

27:58

going to try and do that with Isomorphic

28:00

U which is headquartered here uh and I

28:04

think has the potential to be that. But

28:06

I think that's one of the disadvantages

28:07

of Europe is obviously we're combination

28:10

of you know um smaller markets. So

28:13

that's one thing we have to kind of

28:14

overcome. Maybe this EU inc thing um

28:17

could be a good innovation.

28:18

>> I'm pulling out the magic wand again.

28:20

You can change you've got the magic but

28:22

this time applied to European

28:23

technology.

28:24

>> What would you do to implement a growth

28:26

mindset? a ability to build that

28:29

trillion dollar company that we don't

28:30

have today.

28:30

>> I think in the UK, I mean this may apply

28:32

to other European countries too. I think

28:34

unlocking what pension funds can invest

28:36

in or just for the kind of growth stage,

28:39

I think we're brilliant at doing the

28:41

startup idea and getting it to a certain

28:43

level like we did with Deep Mind. But

28:45

then if you really want to cross that

28:46

sort of chasm into the trillion dollar

28:49

uh global, you know, player, then where

28:52

are the billion dollar rounds going to

28:53

come from? uh where you can really take

28:55

on those that the you know the existing

28:57

incumbents and I think that certainly

28:59

was missing 10 years ago when I was

29:01

doing fundraising for Deep Mind and um I

29:04

think it's still kind of missing today

29:05

just that kind of level of ambition and

29:07

and the amount the capital markets can

29:09

can support.

29:10

>> I read about some of your early rounds

29:12

raising in the S Malibu

29:15

families kids. Exactly.

29:17

>> Um okay we're going to do a quick fire

29:19

round meeting Elon for the first time.

29:23

>> How was that? Oh yeah, it was amazing.

29:24

Um, it was at a it was at a founders

29:27

fund because we were both SpaceX and

29:29

DeepMind were part of a same portfolio,

29:31

a kind of amazing portfolio that Peter

29:33

Teal had at Founders Fund and uh I think

29:36

we were both invited I think I was

29:37

invited to my first portfolio kind of

29:39

conference and I think it must be back

29:41

in 2011 or 2012 very early days. So we

29:44

were the small little upcoming thing and

29:46

I had a small speaking slot and then and

29:48

then and then and then Elon was the you

29:50

know big thing in that portfolio. So, he

29:52

had the keynote, but then we met

29:54

afterwards. I think it was in Elon says

29:55

it was like we were passing each other

29:57

in the bathroom or something and uh we

29:59

said hi and we both hit off, you know,

30:02

immediately like uh as sort of, you

30:04

know, people that were uh almost too

30:07

ambitious in their thinking perhaps and

30:09

love sci-fi and um and and I really

30:12

wanted to visit his rocket factory. So,

30:14

I was sort of trying to get an Angular

30:16

invite to to SpaceX and and uh in LA and

30:19

I think I got there a couple, you know,

30:21

he invited me at the end of that meeting

30:23

and and that was our second meeting in

30:24

in the space effects factory.

30:26

>> I love it. Not even speaking slots as

30:27

big as his.

30:29

>> I don't know about that.

30:30

>> Healthcare revolution disease

30:32

eradication that you're most excited

30:34

about. Again, for me it's specifically

30:36

with multiple scerosis.

30:37

>> Yeah. Well, look, I want to literally

30:39

cure cancer. I know people say that's

30:41

the cliche, but I actually what we're

30:42

building at isomorphic is general

30:44

purpose. So we're trying to build a a

30:47

platform, a drug design platform that

30:50

will be applicable to any therapeutic

30:52

area. So ideally it will help with

30:54

everything from neurogeneration,

30:56

cardiovascular, immunology, cancer.

30:58

Those are the ones we're we're focusing

31:00

first, but eventually it should be

31:01

applicable to every disease area.

31:04

>> What are you thinking about that you're

31:06

not reading about or seeing anyone talk

31:08

about?

31:09

Um I think it's more so I think a lot of

31:12

people are worrying about the economic

31:14

questions around AGI uh that we talked

31:16

about earlier but I I worry a lot about

31:18

the philosophical questions around it

31:20

like when it comes let's say assume we

31:22

get the technical right let's assume we

31:23

get the economical economics part of it

31:26

right both of those are hard then

31:27

there's a philosophical question of what

31:29

is meaning what is purpose um we'll find

31:31

out won't be what consciousness is um

31:34

what does it mean to be human I think

31:35

that's uh uh what's coming down the road

31:37

and I think we need some great new

31:39

philosophers to help us to help us uh

31:41

navigate that.

31:43

>> Hard final question.

31:45

>> There are many different ways you could

31:46

describe what you do. What would you

31:49

most like to be remembered for your

31:51

legacy to be?

31:53

>> Um I would like uh my legacy to sort of

31:55

be remembered for like advancing science

31:59

um and doing uh building technologies

32:02

that bring incredible benefits into the

32:04

world like curing terrible diseases.

32:06

Dis, thank you so much for putting up

32:08

with my meandering conversation. You've

32:09

been fantastic. I really appreciate it.

32:11

>> Thank you very much.

Interactive Summary

In this interview, Demis Hassabis, co-founder of Google DeepMind, discusses the trajectory of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), predicting its arrival within the next five years. He explores the technical challenges of scaling, the necessity of new breakthroughs like 'continual learning,' and the transformative potential of AI in medicine through Isomorphic Labs. Hassabis also addresses AI safety, the need for international regulatory bodies, and the economic shifts brought by an 'AI-driven Industrial Revolution,' while explaining why London remains a premier hub for deep tech innovation.

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