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This Is Your Warning Before Everything Changes

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This Is Your Warning Before Everything Changes

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223 segments

0:00

So, last week there was one accusation

0:02

that moved the stock market. Yet, almost

0:05

everyone just rolled right past it. And

0:06

as you already know, I read way more

0:08

trip-related news than is probably

0:10

healthy for me these days. And this one

0:12

has personally stuck with me. The part

0:14

that should actually scare you is not

0:16

the machine everybody is talking about

0:18

right now. It is what already crossed

0:20

the border years prior and technology

0:23

that is about to land on the device you

0:25

own. Let's talk about it. Okay, so here

0:27

is what actually happened last week. The

0:30

US Commerce Secretary, they said ASML

0:32

down and claimed one of their machines

0:34

may have slipped into [music] China.

0:36

ASML, obviously, they denied about it,

0:38

right? Stating it never happened [music]

0:40

and claiming they track every single one

0:42

of these machines on the planet, which I

0:44

think, I don't know if it's true or not,

0:46

but since no one has shown any proof,

0:48

[music] it remains an accusation that

0:50

ASML denies entirely. However, the

0:53

strange part is that the stock still

0:55

dropped on the claim nobody could prove.

0:57

ASML fell and Korean chip futures fell

1:00

even harder. The reason it moved is

1:02

because this one accusation pokes at the

1:04

assumption a lot of these companies are

1:07

priced on nowadays. The idea that China

1:10

simply cannot get this technology,

1:12

including South Korea. So, I want to

1:14

talk about what this machine actually is

1:16

so the rest of this story kind of lands

1:18

on you. So, as of now, there is only one

1:20

company on Earth that builds these

1:23

machine and that [music] is ASML. So,

1:25

what is this machine is about? Each one

1:27

weighs about 180 tons, each costs

1:30

between 200 to 400 million plus dollars,

1:32

each takes about 250 plus engineers 6

1:36

plus months to build on site. So,

1:38

basically, what that means is you just

1:40

cannot make the most advanced chips

1:42

without this machine. The Nvidia chips

1:44

training AI, the chip inside your

1:46

iPhone, all of it has through this

1:48

single gate. That is exactly why the US

1:50

spent years and years making sure China

1:53

cannot get their hands [music] on this

1:54

one. So, now you might be wondering why

1:56

a story that's big just got scrolled

1:59

right past. There are two reasons I

2:00

think. So first of all, it sounds like a

2:02

2030 problem, so your brain just files

2:04

it under the not my problem yet list and

2:07

keeps on moving. Secondly, nobody has

2:09

confirmed it is whether it is true or

2:11

not. So it is easier to call it noise

2:13

instead of fact. However, the signals

2:15

that matters the most here are almost

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always the ones that do not feel urgent

2:19

[music] yet. By the time they feel

2:21

urgent, you're already late. That's

2:22

usually how it is. And I want you to

2:24

hear me out carefully about this part

2:25

because the machine is not really the

2:27

story here. China has been trying to

2:29

pull this technology out for over a

2:31

decade [music] and they have two ways

2:33

in. Either they buy the people within

2:35

the US or they take apart the machines.

2:38

Back in 2019, a former ASML engineer

2:41

walked out the door with 2 million lines

2:44

of core source code of this machine and

2:47

set up shop in China. A US court

2:49

obviously ordered $845 million in

2:52

damages, but here's the part that really

2:54

gets me. He had already left the country

2:55

before the ruling came down. So what

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that means is he runs a company over

2:59

there today. And last year, the story

3:01

going around was that Chinese engineers

3:04

quietly took apart an older ASML machine

3:07

to copy it, broke it, and then actually

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called ASML for repair. The technician

3:11

flew out and found the thing already in

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pieces. So the assumption whether or not

3:16

a machine physically crossed the border

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or not, I want you to ask what has

3:20

already [music] crossed. And the source

3:22

code, 2 million lines of source code

3:24

crossed years ago and so did the

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engineers spend years standing inside

3:28

the machine. So Reuters calls China's

3:31

chip push their Manhattan project.

3:33

[music] And that name is doing a lot of

3:35

work. Now, why don't you think about the

3:36

original one for a second? The world

3:38

found out about the Manhattan project

3:40

after Hiroshima. While it was actually

3:43

being built, almost nobody on Earth knew

3:45

it existed. The big happened in the

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dark always and you only see them once

3:49

they are already done. Once they have

3:51

arrived. And of course, I have proved

3:53

that I'm not just being dramatic here

3:55

this past [music] April. Deep Sea

3:57

shipped the Frontier AI model running

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entirely on Chinese chips and [music]

4:00

zero American silicon chip inside it.

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Hundreds of millions of people use it

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right now. That is not a prototype

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sitting in a lab. That is shipping

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today, right now, with that a machine

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everyone's still arguing about. Now,

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again, you might be thinking this is a

4:13

geopolitics story or anything like that

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and it is actually, but it's also about

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you sitting where you are right now.

4:20

Just to give you an idea of the scale,

4:22

China is bigger than most people

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picture. Measured by what your money

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actually buys, China they passed the US

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economy around 2016 and it's roughly a

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third larger today. So, you have that

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scale and you have country that does not

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stop. But here's where it lands on your

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desk. The same invisibility that hit

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that chip machine is about to hide

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something a lot closer to home. So, what

4:44

that means is my read on this is that an

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even more capable open weight model, the

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kind built to run on hardware you own,

4:51

is landing early next year. I'm I'm

4:54

speculating here though, but in plain

4:55

English, that means it's top-tier AI you

4:58

can run on a computer you own with no

4:59

company in the loop deciding what you

5:02

are allowed to do with it. And this is

5:03

not me guessing it. It is already

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starting. GLM 5.2 by Z AI just dropped

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this month, open weight, free to

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download and it is [music] amazing, by

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far the best. So, the capability that

5:14

felt locked behind the monthly

5:15

subscription is about to sit on a

5:17

machine you own. So, let's wait about a

5:20

6 to 8 months and see what's going to

5:22

happen. Remember what I said, you do not

5:24

get a warning before the thing that

5:26

changes everything. For you, this is the

5:28

warning. Think about it and move on it

5:30

early. Your head start will compound

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quietly while everyone else waits for

5:35

the obvious moment that's already

5:37

passed. [music] And simply because I'm

5:38

also guilty of losing out on an

5:39

opportunity because I waited too long.

5:41

So, before you take any of this as fact,

5:44

I want to put my bias on the table. I'm

5:46

South Korean living in Canada, so I'm

5:49

not a neutral voice here. Samsung and SK

5:51

Hynix are my home team. Their whole edge

5:54

rests on China not catching up. So, I

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want you to weigh what I'm saying

5:58

[music] knowing that. And honestly, the

6:00

bias costs the other way, too. I think

6:02

China, they always figure things out

6:04

eventually with or without the

6:06

industrial spies because they always

6:08

have. They got the money, you know. The

6:10

machine is absurdly complex, over 10,000

6:13

parts, and the upkeep alone is just

6:15

brutal. So, I cannot tell you if it's

6:17

going to take them 2 years or maybe 6.

6:19

What I can tell you today, though, is

6:21

that they just [music] do not know how

6:23

to stop. Anyway, the real lesson here

6:25

today was never about chips. Today, it

6:27

is about how fast the ground is moving

6:30

under your feet right now and how little

6:31

warning you actually get before it moves

6:33

again. So, you do not get a warning

6:35

before the thing that changes

6:37

everything. So, you and me both, we are

6:38

standing right at the forefront of it,

6:40

which means build that thing this month

6:43

instead of next quarter. Ship it before

6:45

you feel ready. Create content and do

6:47

the marketing early on to see what

6:48

sticks. So, if this gave you one useful

6:51

way to see what is coming, the best move

6:53

you can make is to join the free

6:54

community and in this letter, that is

6:56

where I break down exactly what to run

6:58

the moment that open weight model drops.

7:00

You take all of it, and there's no

7:01

gatekeeping. And for the next video, I'm

7:03

going to break down the cheapest setup

7:05

that can actually run a frontier model

7:07

on your own hardware. So, you're ready

7:09

before it lands and not scrambling

7:11

after. And if you're a business owner

7:12

who previously tried building AI pilots

7:15

or demos, anything like that, but it

7:17

didn't work out within your business

7:18

systems and operations, or if you want

7:20

to start exploring the options of what

7:22

AI can do for your business, why don't

7:24

[music] you go to my website and book a

7:26

call with me and my team cuz I'm very

7:28

confident we should be able to help you

7:29

out even just a tiny bit on that.

7:31

Anyway, as always, thanks for watching.

7:33

And if you want to see me covering

7:34

anything else, why don't you comment

7:36

down below because that is how this

7:37

channel runs. You ask, I build, we all

7:39

learn. See you in the next [music]

7:40

video.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the implications of an accusation that ASML chip-manufacturing machines may have reached China, despite strict trade restrictions. The narrator argues that focusing on the physical machine is missing the bigger picture, as China has already acquired critical source code and expertise through industrial espionage. This development has already enabled China to create advanced AI technology. The video urges viewers to stop ignoring these subtle warnings of technological shifts and to prepare for the rapid arrival of powerful, open-weight AI models that will run on personal hardware.

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