This Is Your Warning Before Everything Changes
223 segments
So, last week there was one accusation
that moved the stock market. Yet, almost
everyone just rolled right past it. And
as you already know, I read way more
trip-related news than is probably
healthy for me these days. And this one
has personally stuck with me. The part
that should actually scare you is not
the machine everybody is talking about
right now. It is what already crossed
the border years prior and technology
that is about to land on the device you
own. Let's talk about it. Okay, so here
is what actually happened last week. The
US Commerce Secretary, they said ASML
down and claimed one of their machines
may have slipped into [music] China.
ASML, obviously, they denied about it,
right? Stating it never happened [music]
and claiming they track every single one
of these machines on the planet, which I
think, I don't know if it's true or not,
but since no one has shown any proof,
[music] it remains an accusation that
ASML denies entirely. However, the
strange part is that the stock still
dropped on the claim nobody could prove.
ASML fell and Korean chip futures fell
even harder. The reason it moved is
because this one accusation pokes at the
assumption a lot of these companies are
priced on nowadays. The idea that China
simply cannot get this technology,
including South Korea. So, I want to
talk about what this machine actually is
so the rest of this story kind of lands
on you. So, as of now, there is only one
company on Earth that builds these
machine and that [music] is ASML. So,
what is this machine is about? Each one
weighs about 180 tons, each costs
between 200 to 400 million plus dollars,
each takes about 250 plus engineers 6
plus months to build on site. So,
basically, what that means is you just
cannot make the most advanced chips
without this machine. The Nvidia chips
training AI, the chip inside your
iPhone, all of it has through this
single gate. That is exactly why the US
spent years and years making sure China
cannot get their hands [music] on this
one. So, now you might be wondering why
a story that's big just got scrolled
right past. There are two reasons I
think. So first of all, it sounds like a
2030 problem, so your brain just files
it under the not my problem yet list and
keeps on moving. Secondly, nobody has
confirmed it is whether it is true or
not. So it is easier to call it noise
instead of fact. However, the signals
that matters the most here are almost
always the ones that do not feel urgent
[music] yet. By the time they feel
urgent, you're already late. That's
usually how it is. And I want you to
hear me out carefully about this part
because the machine is not really the
story here. China has been trying to
pull this technology out for over a
decade [music] and they have two ways
in. Either they buy the people within
the US or they take apart the machines.
Back in 2019, a former ASML engineer
walked out the door with 2 million lines
of core source code of this machine and
set up shop in China. A US court
obviously ordered $845 million in
damages, but here's the part that really
gets me. He had already left the country
before the ruling came down. So what
that means is he runs a company over
there today. And last year, the story
going around was that Chinese engineers
quietly took apart an older ASML machine
to copy it, broke it, and then actually
called ASML for repair. The technician
flew out and found the thing already in
pieces. So the assumption whether or not
a machine physically crossed the border
or not, I want you to ask what has
already [music] crossed. And the source
code, 2 million lines of source code
crossed years ago and so did the
engineers spend years standing inside
the machine. So Reuters calls China's
chip push their Manhattan project.
[music] And that name is doing a lot of
work. Now, why don't you think about the
original one for a second? The world
found out about the Manhattan project
after Hiroshima. While it was actually
being built, almost nobody on Earth knew
it existed. The big happened in the
dark always and you only see them once
they are already done. Once they have
arrived. And of course, I have proved
that I'm not just being dramatic here
this past [music] April. Deep Sea
shipped the Frontier AI model running
entirely on Chinese chips and [music]
zero American silicon chip inside it.
Hundreds of millions of people use it
right now. That is not a prototype
sitting in a lab. That is shipping
today, right now, with that a machine
everyone's still arguing about. Now,
again, you might be thinking this is a
geopolitics story or anything like that
and it is actually, but it's also about
you sitting where you are right now.
Just to give you an idea of the scale,
China is bigger than most people
picture. Measured by what your money
actually buys, China they passed the US
economy around 2016 and it's roughly a
third larger today. So, you have that
scale and you have country that does not
stop. But here's where it lands on your
desk. The same invisibility that hit
that chip machine is about to hide
something a lot closer to home. So, what
that means is my read on this is that an
even more capable open weight model, the
kind built to run on hardware you own,
is landing early next year. I'm I'm
speculating here though, but in plain
English, that means it's top-tier AI you
can run on a computer you own with no
company in the loop deciding what you
are allowed to do with it. And this is
not me guessing it. It is already
starting. GLM 5.2 by Z AI just dropped
this month, open weight, free to
download and it is [music] amazing, by
far the best. So, the capability that
felt locked behind the monthly
subscription is about to sit on a
machine you own. So, let's wait about a
6 to 8 months and see what's going to
happen. Remember what I said, you do not
get a warning before the thing that
changes everything. For you, this is the
warning. Think about it and move on it
early. Your head start will compound
quietly while everyone else waits for
the obvious moment that's already
passed. [music] And simply because I'm
also guilty of losing out on an
opportunity because I waited too long.
So, before you take any of this as fact,
I want to put my bias on the table. I'm
South Korean living in Canada, so I'm
not a neutral voice here. Samsung and SK
Hynix are my home team. Their whole edge
rests on China not catching up. So, I
want you to weigh what I'm saying
[music] knowing that. And honestly, the
bias costs the other way, too. I think
China, they always figure things out
eventually with or without the
industrial spies because they always
have. They got the money, you know. The
machine is absurdly complex, over 10,000
parts, and the upkeep alone is just
brutal. So, I cannot tell you if it's
going to take them 2 years or maybe 6.
What I can tell you today, though, is
that they just [music] do not know how
to stop. Anyway, the real lesson here
today was never about chips. Today, it
is about how fast the ground is moving
under your feet right now and how little
warning you actually get before it moves
again. So, you do not get a warning
before the thing that changes
everything. So, you and me both, we are
standing right at the forefront of it,
which means build that thing this month
instead of next quarter. Ship it before
you feel ready. Create content and do
the marketing early on to see what
sticks. So, if this gave you one useful
way to see what is coming, the best move
you can make is to join the free
community and in this letter, that is
where I break down exactly what to run
the moment that open weight model drops.
You take all of it, and there's no
gatekeeping. And for the next video, I'm
going to break down the cheapest setup
that can actually run a frontier model
on your own hardware. So, you're ready
before it lands and not scrambling
after. And if you're a business owner
who previously tried building AI pilots
or demos, anything like that, but it
didn't work out within your business
systems and operations, or if you want
to start exploring the options of what
AI can do for your business, why don't
[music] you go to my website and book a
call with me and my team cuz I'm very
confident we should be able to help you
out even just a tiny bit on that.
Anyway, as always, thanks for watching.
And if you want to see me covering
anything else, why don't you comment
down below because that is how this
channel runs. You ask, I build, we all
learn. See you in the next [music]
video.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the implications of an accusation that ASML chip-manufacturing machines may have reached China, despite strict trade restrictions. The narrator argues that focusing on the physical machine is missing the bigger picture, as China has already acquired critical source code and expertise through industrial espionage. This development has already enabled China to create advanced AI technology. The video urges viewers to stop ignoring these subtle warnings of technological shifts and to prepare for the rapid arrival of powerful, open-weight AI models that will run on personal hardware.
Videos recently processed by our community