all right everybody welcome back to the

Allin podcast the number

one Finance technology business and Maga

podcast in the

world with us again today is the sulate

of science David freeberg living a

modern 1950s aesthetic lifestyle there

this is the uh House of Tomorrow House

of the future world at the original um

1955 Tomorrowland at Disneyland wow and

you have a NASA hat on this is amazing

he's in full geek out mode yeah I didn't

this I told you guys about this haircut

last week because you couldn't blow

yourself that's right properly I told

you this would happen to you it's

exactly what your M said would happen

look at the continuity he told you you

could never match the blow you got last

week and here we are I did my best I

mean it looks ridiculous but stylish in

a way and with us again your chairman

dictator chamath poly hop

he's ready to go to the

inauguration and take his Victory lap

and take an enormous amount of credit

shamad are you looking forward to your

Victory lap I was in Florida earlier

this week I came all the way back so

that I could play poker with my friends

and see my family and children oh nice

and I'll be flying all the way back out

tomorrow morning were you at maral Lago

no I was with my friend in a undisclosed

location with a friend in an undisclosed

location okay sounds great and joining

us for the first time one of my oldest

friends Mr Mark Pinkus or as we like to

say Marcus Pinkus why do you always take

credit for these guests being only your

friends the rest of us are the ones that

call them and are like hey do you want

to come on the show and then you're like

my old think longer than you I don't

know about that is that true back to

like AOL yeah well we met when you were

doing silicon alley right reporter yeah

in the 90s I've been collecting rent

from Mark pinkis for the last year it's

true my landlord you should whistleblow

on freeberg to Gavin's gouging police

and see if you can get

some let your winners

[Music]

ride

[Music]

David we open sources to the fans and

they've just gone crazy with it Queen

we'll get right to that in a minute uh

the price couch continues if our viewers

had to vote on who is most likely to

price couch it's 100% free BR th% but

let's be clear the real gouging is the

predio trust who's charging an amazingly

high rent like over $100 a foot and then

freeberg was actually giving me a pretty

good deal he was getting a pretty good

deal I was paying like 130 a foot or

something 120 130 a foot all in uh for

real estate in the Presidio and we just

weren't using the space but it is the

most expensive real estate it is nuts

quite an office my Lord the prio trust

manages that federal land and they get

to keep all the money and reinvest it

it's probably the only profitable

operation in the federal government I

used to be on the board so I I saw it

close up and they they reinvest in

things like you know restoring natural

habitats cutting down eucalyptus trees

right you know archaeological digs right

right it was really interesting I looked

at one of those those

houses to rent when it was first moving

up to San Francisco and the only problem

with those houses have these gorgeous

houses that were like the General's

houses like three four five bedrooms but

they would have one

bathroom right for four rooms and I like

can you put another bathroom and cannot

change anything these are historic

privileges so you know historic

landmarks marked it freeloader tribe

social network back in the day

support.com and if you wasted some

portion of your youth playing

Farmville he was one of the original app

creators or Zinga poker which famously

he said hey would you like to be an

investor in Zinga poker and I said how

does it work he said oh well you play

for virtual coins and I said Mark this

is the stupidest thing I've ever heard

you've taken all of the money out of the

the the game it's never going to work

and of course he turned it into a

multi-billion dollar company and that

was another $25 million Angel investment

Miss on my part but Mark you were also

like early General social networking you

were involved in Facebook as an investor

Linked In weren't you like ear on yeah I

I think the first social media

investment I made was Napster I sent the

first check Wow first $100,000 I think

of that as the beginning of all this but

then yeah Reed and I put up the first

money for

friender and then we were lucky enough

to invest along with Peter in the first

round Facebook wow the First on on

Twitter so yeah like pick the right body

of water even if your boat doesn't tribe

didn't

work but but you placed five other bats

so you hit a couple of them it works out

just

fine you uh I believe you owned the six

degrees patents the original social

network in the 90s in web 1.0 was a

company called six degrees and uh they

had a bunch of patents and I believe you

bought them and then sold them to

Facebook yeah no we didn't sell them

Reed and I bought them because we were

worried that if Yahoo at the time had

gotten them or even Friendster that they

would have blocked the whole industry so

we bought them we we paid 750k which was

a lot then and we were accused of being

patent trolls and we never got that

opportunity we just sat on them to this

day actually I own half and Microsoft

owns other half are you still close with

with Reed Mark yeah very close how did

you guys reconcile your differences and

political views in this last election

because he was very vocal kamla you

obviously became vocal Trump and very

kind of kind of diametrically different

views on the

future well it's interesting because

Reed and I really started the whole kind

of journey into bigger National politics

together we both sat down and had lunch

with Biden and made wrote big checks uh

a little over a year ago December of

23 and and then you know won't bother

you but I I had my red pill moment and I

went a very different direction which

started off just questioning the

Democrats hold on hold on can you

actually just double click into that

what was your red pill moment was there

one specific thing or was it more of a

trickle of things it was both right it

starts the wall starts crumbling and

then it comes down all at once so for me

it really

started early in 23 I started reading

pirate wires and Mike salana and I

thought he was a little crazy at first

because he would write these articles

one he wrote was about how the Ukrainian

soldiers had swastikas on their helmets

in the New York Times photographers

would ask them to take the saskas off

for photos and I said that can't be

right that can't be true

and then four months later it was in the

New York Times buried in the middle of

the paper and I kept seeing stories like

that that that he would be early on and

so I just started feeling uncomfortable

and Queasy about what was going on with

mainstream media and then in May of last

year of 24 I read some article that

talked about Trump's speech in

Charlottesville and this has been well

covered but but where he said there was

good people on both sides Ides and the

article said it was completely you know

propaganda and not what he actually not

accurately reflecting what he said that

uh that he denounced the Nazis a bunch

of times in his speech and so then I

went and watched that video and that was

my red pill moment I think it was for a

lot of people because it wasn't just the

media spinning it or politicians

spinning it that was like one of the

pillars of why you were supposed to hate

Trump

that speech and and then you

see Biden say that's why he had to run a

second time and you see Obama go to you

even see Biden bring it up again in the

beginning of the DNC and it's one of

their pillars and they clearly know that

they're misrepresenting things so for me

that was just that was beyond

uncomfortable I was just like okay now I

got to go back to First principles and

look at the primary data and listen only

to original speech by people and I just

realized I couldn't trust mainstream

media so I was I became I started

questioning the Democrats as soon as I

started questioning the Democrats I

started getting a lot of Shame and anger

and hatred oh the other thing that

happened those part of this journey is

that my chief of staff parted ways with

me after nine years in April of last

year and he was the main person

protecting me from myself on Twitter and

he was the one who would say stay in

your lane nobody wants to hear what you

think about politics or San Francisco or

anything other than you know your area

of products and investing and with him

gone I just started tweeting whatever I

felt and thought and sometimes I got it

wrong or it was a little too emotional

but first of all it was really fun and

then second of all I found I got

connected to this whole new audience of

people who are these kind of techno

optimists I think you guys probably

talked about

it and

that just brought me down this path that

eventually I came out two days before

the

election publicly for Trump um and it

was only because that's when I

completely got there and I was trying to

just be completely honest and authentic

with myself and on Twitter at the same

time and my daughters turned to me that

Sunday and they said you're you're going

to vote for Trump we know it and I said

yeah you're probably right and they said

well then you have to go say it on

Twitter and my daughter's like really in

this with me yeah so anyway and then it

was on the front page of the New York

Post on the day of the election that I

was uh this not that I'm such news but

maybe it just was their news Peg um that

I was coming out for Trump and but I'll

get back to your re question but what I

love about my New York Times about my

New York friends is that they did not

give a they were all proa and they

texted me and they're just like oh

that's kind of funny but it's one thing

I kind of love about New York they

didn't care back to your question on

Reed what I love about Reed was he was

already getting pings from people saying

what's going on with pinkis he's going

off the rails he's becoming a Trumper

you know it's you guys I'm sure have

gone down got a little bit of that too

about shamas in

freeberg yeah me like what's wrong with

him we got to bring him back into the

fold you know he's he's should we lock

him up is he crazy um and so Reed was

already getting these I had a lot of

anxiety about talking to Reed about it

and finally Reed and I got on

FaceTime and he just said I just want to

start by saying I'm team Mark and I said

I'm team Reed and it gets out a little

you know a a but well no Americans can

get along even if they disagree ically

about a candidate is probably where we

need to get to especially you know now

that Trump's going to be in office in a

couple of days what was it like when you

had for Biden yeah okay well just to

finish the read part sorry but no

problem what what I love about Reed is

that we followed that with a 4-Hour

dinner and he said I never questioned

your principles he said I know you're a

highly principled person and I just want

to understand which principles it is and

I'd like to convince to change your mind

but anyway so was hold on one second

so I you said something almost in

passing but I just want to double click

I think part of what Silicon Valley

actually gets wrong is that we don't

embrace the tism and what I mean by that

is everybody we're all a little socially

uncomfortable we awkward I wouldn't say

that we were the coolest people growing

up and there this virulent form of

blockers you called it Chief of Staff I

think that these folks can be very

detrimental which almost represent this

filter between your true self and

everybody else and there is this game

that's played about being a

gatekeeper I do think that executive

assistants are valuable administrative

assistance are valuable the reason I can

say this is that my EA went on maternity

leave I had and I experimented with a

chief of staff Etc and now I use Jason

service called Athena and I have a guy

that works with me in the

Philippines and it's about 3,000 a month

and I can honestly tell you this guy is

the single most effective administrative

support I've ever had and what there

isn't is all these opinions on what I

can say or do and I think that when you

look at a lot of these big companies if

you look at zuck's current

transformation or what you just spoke

about there are all these

Interlopers that seem to get in the

middle of you and people's perception of

you I don't know if you have any

comments or reactions to that idea yeah

it's part of where I know you guys have

talked about Zuck coming out as Lisa's

based or his seemingly more authentic

self or sharing more about himself and I

can relate to it because I think we all

go through this this struggle as you

start to be more of a known person

inside your company outside your company

and you have people around you taking

the edges off and I think that we're now

in this time that I think we're having

authenticity is having a moment now

which is great for me because Reed said

to me I I've if you Google me you'll see

that there's lots and lots of bad things

written about me and a lot of it is my

high school quote was some people have

tacked and others tell the truth and

I've always been kind of just committed

to being honest even if it's nuanced and

it's not an easy sound bite and Reed

said to me early on you need to pick

what the easy narrative is or the Press

is going to make it up for you and he

was right and they did or my competitors

did so I think that now with long form

podcasts and there's just more and the

fact that we can kind of directly in a

lot of ways Elon was the first one to

directly defend himself you remember

when well he fired his whole do you

remember when he fired his whole PR team

he fired all those people there's just

like there's none of that infrastructure

between him and and everybody else but

do you remember when he would be on

Twitter all the time post PayPal trying

to correct the story and just write long

long diet tribes and then and then when

a New York Times reported said something

negative about a Tesla he just went off

for weeks about them and and it seemed a

little crazy and deranged and then you

started to see that it worked like he

actually and we were told don't defend

yourself if something bad is written

about you you're going to prolong the

press cycle you're going to make the

journalist

angry and so we've we're now Unshackled

I I teach this class at Stanford and I

taught two backtack on Monday and I

looked around and I saw half the plaque

her said you know she her you know he

him his and I got a little Pang of like

oh do I have to watch what I'm saying

I'm like no I don't I'm Unshackled I'm

just gonna this is just me and I'm gonna

be Mark unfiltered and it's the better

version of ourselves so anyway I I'm

glad that Zuck feels like he can be he

can present more of his complete self

out there now and I think we can get

into it later but I have a lot of

thoughts on how the culture is going to

kind of move more towards Bas back to

the other question with Biden that lunch

you had did he seem like he was all

there yeah come on was it in the

afternoon I mean did you have concerns

about that that was sharp as attack that

was thing that broke me I mean I'm not

saying I'm like full mag over here I was

like wait a second are you guys lying

about this like how long is this and how

deep is this cover up I have no horse in

this race I didn't have a horse in the

race so I had nothing to lie about I for

sure don't now I'm really not a Biden

fan or

protector I'll tell you like the exact

my exact observation we we had this

lunch there was like maybe five of us

with Biden and a few of his Finance

people in they had it in the tennis

house which is the way they found that

they can have a fundraising lunch on the

property of the White House they found

some way we'll see if if Trump does it

hole right yeah the loophole and and it

was I was impressed it was a long launch

it must have been hour and a half two

hours and I'll tell you the good and the

bad the good the part I was impressed

was he kept the conversation thread he

was engaged and kept the thread the

whole time when people you say sharp as

attack or kept the thread that's how we

talk about like our 90-year-old

grandparent or something so I'm just

saying the reality to me he he was

not he did not seem mentally debilitated

in the sense of

dementia but we were impressed that he

was able to follow the conversation

thread and then say you know but okay

let me say it differently would you have

had the same bar if it was Jamie Diamond

sitting across from you for 2our

lunch no no so so so yes it was it was

wow your grandfather is holding up

really well like your grandfather was

able to have a whole lunch and hold the

conversation but it wasn't I didn't walk

away saying I I have to admit I did not

walk away saying I think he's mentally

unfit but I did but and I wasn't shocked

but I was like okay this is someone

who's being really handled and managed

by the people around him and he's being

told to show up here say say this but I

will say he was he was not on an obvious

script which I know I think famously he

did some fundraiser at vod's house where

he was reading a prompter the whole time

so wasn't reading a

prompter yeah that at a at a person's

home they brought a teleprompter for him

to speak wow that's you didn't hear that

I didn't actually that's new information

that's yeah crazy but I mean In fairness

like the um there's this issue called

Sun Downing people who are in that age

group they're good in the day and then

the sun goes down and you know their

brains are exhausted and and that's when

you would see it and that's what they

said about the debate but for me that

was the the coronation of comma and like

not actually having a speedrun primary

that to me was just anti-democratic

anti-American and like just what

happened to Meritt and like having a

process here right that's when I felt

like the party just CED

I'm glad you're here let's jump um okay

but let me ask you a question before we

get into the doc we got a lot to talk

about obviously but what do you think

the Democratic party does from here like

is everybody's like this they're lost in

a drift we're not even hearing from them

maybe a little bit of uh push back I

guess at

these Senate hearings right now for

confirmations but what do you think

happens is there any hope for this and

and who would lead them out of this

Shapiro somebody

AOC I think that what my brain my kind

of intelligent front of brain would tell

me the logical thing which I think I

want to say is one lens that I think we

have to be careful not to just apply

logic here because it's parties and and

the Democrats but the logic would say oh

they're going to find based authentic

people to put up against these other

ones like the kind of Federman types

that they're going to put those people

forth who are more Centrist and also are

more trustworthy that they're actually

authentic in their flaws that's what my

brain would tell me I think there'll be

a little of that that the party I

believe is will move more that way I

think that the corporate candidates

aren't going to fly anymore with the

electorate I think that the managed

corporate through sound bites can't do a

long form things like this I think

that's over and we can get into that

later if we want but I think they won't

go as far as they should so so they the

they won't go as far as like what I

think we would intelligently advise them

to do so so that's as much as I can

figure out that they should do that but

they won't interesting well we're

certainly going to find out in the next

year or two what their direction is when

they get to the midterms I suppose oh

one more thing though on it is yeah and

a lot of it depends on really what we

see and if if Doge starts to really get

popular support this whole I think you

guys talked about this last week that

the more that FDR style Trump and people

get popular support it's going to become

a more and more isolating lonely place

in two years to still be like you know

California Gavin everyone saying don't

worry we're going to protect you against

these people if if they're doing things

that are popular to still saying you're

protecting against them I think won't

fly well that's a a great jump off point

because Gavin does seem and Karen bass

seem like their careers are ending and

they're in the last stages of trying to

maybe get a little bit more pragmatic

based is the word people might use for

that just being super candid but let's

get let's get into a little bit of an

update here about the absolute tragedy

occurring in Los Angeles the death toll

is now at 25 uh ,000 structures have

been destroyed it's mostly people's

homes it's 40,000 Acres that's 60 square

miles I think San Francisco is 7 by S

miles right so this is a lot of uh space

it's bigger than all of San Francisco

the Palisades and eaten fires are still

burning and as of Wednesday 80,000

people were under evacuation

orders couple of our friends lost their

homes and uh but they survived but the

story of losing everything are just

tragic every

memory all your personal documents

photos art whatever that you've

collected over a lifetime I just had two

conversations with people and they were

just in shock the estimates right now of

damage are between 135 billion and $150

billion this is some of the most

expensive real estate on the planet it's

10 times more costly than any other

wildfire in history according to reports

uh you might remember the campfire near

Paradise California that's about what 3

hours North of San Francisco Northeast

that one was 12.5 billion just to level

set it

uh and now people are talking about and

we'll talk about here today what the

recovery and rebuild effort might look

like California leadership disad across

the

board Gavin I just

disad Gavin new have you had traffic to

dad.com with all of this yeah right now

dad.com is going to be red director to

Gavin or Karen bass I don't know which

one is more disgraceful I mean it's it's

an incredible troll that you just

redirected every week to whoever you're

mad is that

yeah who would be more disgraceful in

this situation Gavin or Karen bass I

think it's got to be k for just being

out of the country I think I think it

would be quite funny if every week you

actually gave an award redirected the

website to the I give it to this week

and before that it was Jake Paul for

that Tyson fight and the

disad but it's the stakes have gone up

Gavin is now doing executive orders one

of them is to make it illegal to lobal

offers to impacted homeowners for the

next three months I don't know what the

point of that is and the other one is to

eliminate the coastal acts review of

permits for the the

houses that are along PCH I

suppose and he wants

to extend key price gouging protections

quote to help make rebuilding more

affordable gouging is defined as raising

the rent or price of other goods and

services more than 10% from the last

marketed

price but it could be as little as 5%

it's just not clear and then LA mayor

bass created a snitch hotline to report

on any kind of price gouging and rents

which we've started to see people are

now naming and shaming Zillow and red

fin listings where they you can see the

previous history of what they were

asking for for a home or for rent and

obviously the free market is

making rental homes double in price

freeberg we talked a bunch about this

and I know Pinkus you've got we had I

don't know if you're comfortable talking

about it but we had a whole conversation

about your getting dragged by the

coastal

Commission in Northern California

freeberg maybe kick us off here on what

your thoughts are on rebuilding this

area how this will happen especially

with what we brought up last week and I

think when a bit viral is your sort of

talk about putting your thumb on the

scale with insurance I mean this is I

think one of the concerning things here

is

the free market not being allowed to

progress previously with insurance and

then now with the rebuild well

California's got at this point price

controls or a mechanism for

controlling the change in price on

insurance on Housing Services and now

they've got this non-solicitation

rule all three I think are very

challenging to I think an appropriate

Market recovery look the insurance issue

is a longer one if you guys want we

could talk about that I've got a couple

notes I can bring up on the history of

how we got to this point but I think

it's going to be the one of the biggest

burdens going forward and it could

actually lead to a pretty significant

effect in long-term housing prices in

California because of the way that the

insurance Market is structured and

regulated in

California but if you want we can talk

about that or up or down what do you

think ultimately you know tldr like do

you think prices are going to go way up

here do you think this is going to take

five or 10 years to rebuild these homes

I mean we've never seen this many

structures go down at this price point

in a constrained area where just

construction is so expensive and hard so

I think the the governor did a good job

suspending the permitting requirements

for the coastal act for affected homes

and the squa review those are very

important I think

suspensions but he also put in place

this executive order for price gouging

and if you pull up the note Nick so he

basically said California penal code

section

396 which prohibits price gouging during

a declared state of emergency will now

extend indefinitely in this region and

in the language in that Penal Code it

says that businesses cannot raise the

price of essential goods and services by

more than 10% above their pre-emergency

price for a specified period and in this

case his executive order is in

definitely so in on an indefinite basis

you cannot raise the price of goods and

services which generally applies to

consumer goods like food and emergency

supplies but it also applies to building

materials and services related to

housing work so if you want to

attract Builders if you want to attract

contractors if you want to attract

electricians and plumbers to go to the

LA area you have to allow the market to

do its job if I'm a plumber operating in

Sacramento or in Phoenix and I'm like

man I could make some money if I go to

La you will see an influx of service

providers and an influx of goods to

support the rebuilding effort in

Southern California that's the way the

free market should work is there's an

opportunity in the market folks show up

they say great I can make money I'm

going to come here and do this work and

as more folks show up they begin to

compete on price and eventually the cost

kind of normalizes and you end up

finding what is now the new fair market

value between the bid and the ask the

people that are saying hey I'll do the

work they're the ask and hey I need

people to do work that's the bid and you

find a price but the benefit of that is

you increase the supply you increase the

supply of goods you increase the supply

of service providers of contractors

there is a home building dir right now

in the United States so this is an

amazing opportunity because they can now

move to LA build homes we can get a

rapid reconstruction effort underway

except the governor just said we can't

pay people 10% higher than what they

were getting paid

right before this happened on an

indefinite basis and then Karen bass

created a hotline you can go to La 311

and report people if they're trying to

charge too much and then the uh you know

the Stacey will come and investigate you

and determine that you're charging too

much I understand that there's a strong

moral imperative and incentive to say we

got to stop price gouging we don't want

people to get hurt but the second order

effect is you're actually hurting the

market and you're hurting the rebuild

effort because you're reducing the

incentive for folks to come in and fill

the void in the market that is necessary

for us to accelerate the development of

15,000 homes in a very short period of

time the alternative now is people are

going to be sitting around and I already

spoke to a couple friends I'm sure you

guys have that are like I try calling

Architects I try calling contractors

people that live in this area that have

been affected I cannot get anyone to

return my call there is not enough

service providers down there you're

going to end up waiting six seven years

to get your home rebuilt now what do you

do you own a a lot you don't have a home

to live in and then there's this other

thing where we can't take unol offers on

the home that was the other executive

order so if you want to pull that one up

the governor said it is illegal to make

an unsolicited offer on a piece of real

estate in one of these affected zip

codes I don't know what that happened in

Hawaii that makes the governor keep

referencing the Hawaii story as if you

know that there were people that were

taken advantage of and we need to

protect the citizens of LA but I'm

pretty sure that having an increase in

the number of offers coming in for Real

Estate

increases maret increases buy behavior

and that will ultimately

drive and that will ultimately make it

easier by having more liquidity for some

of these folks who owned burn down lots

to be able to sell their lot take their

insurance check move to another

neighborhood and go somewhere else

because they're going to have to

otherwise wait six or seven years to

build a

home yeah I think you're a little bit

off the deep end with some of this stuff

because I think you're not being totally

fair in representing what this EO says

and that's coming from me I mean I am

not a Nome fan okay and I think he is

completely and totally

incompetent but I'll just take the other

side of this which is that I read the EO

and I actually think it's somewhat

reasonable and I didn't connect the dots

with the EO and the real estate market

and the reason is that if you read all

of what he said the EO was hypers

specific to unsolicited offers to a very

specific handful of zip codes and it was

time boxed for three months so he said

making any unsolicited offer to an owner

of real estate property located in the

areas encompassed by and he names a

bunch of zip go I think there was like

one two there's like 12 or 13 of them

okay so unsolicited okay yep to to

acquire any interest in real property

for an amount less than the fair market

value of the

property on January 6th so before the

fire started and before the home bur

down and he said that's prohibited for

three months that's it for three months

and the reason I think he said that is

that if you just scope out a little bit

just from this moment in Los Angeles the

problem is that after natural disasters

there is a spike in fraudulent

activities and there are people that try

to take advantage of that situation to

make money so for example after

hurricanes we saw this in Florida people

poses contractors they come in and they

offer inflated prices they offer poor

quality of work and especially when you

sort of deregulate for that moment where

there's less checks there's less folks

involved because you're trying to speed

up the process you can have a bunch of

pressure tactics that work against the

best interests of the person trying to

build on the Wildfire side there was

this crazy thing Nick I'll s you the

link from KTLA that about these folks

called fire Chasers which are

essentially like you know Wildfire

scammers they're ambulance Chasers but

during fir okay so so so my point is

yeah I don't disagree with his

incompetence okay and I think he is

totally out of touch I think there's a

broken cartel that runs the state that's

going to drive this state into just

complete disrepair he was

NE already you can't say a state that

has $322 billion budget is already

bankrupt it's it's teetering on a path

where we won't be able to return and we

can debate that but my point is I just

think despite all of this he's grossly

negligent Karen bass is grossly

negligent the California cartel is

breaking this state but on this specific

narrow thing I kind of will give him his

flowers I think it was like a decent

smart good thing it's narrowly focused

there's a specific window here that's

time boxed so that the worst behaviors

of other people are roughly managed and

mitigated until we can figure out a

better answer you're saying that

unsolicited offers on real estate can

drive fraud what you talked about if

there is a person that is this does not

prevent Somebody by let's talk about

Services separately because he has a

separate EO on services this does not

prevent anybody whose house burned down

from listing his lot you could sell it

for a dollar that's right so it's not

it's I think it's it's not right and

it's inaccurate to say that this is

perturbing and distorting the free

market the idea that you cannot sell

isn't what is in this CEO the idea is

some person shows up out of the blue and

applies a pressure tactic to you when

you're in a very stressful situation

trying to deal with your insurance

brokers trying to figure out where your

kids are going to go to school they're

just making an offer what's the pressure

tactic it's why can't someone make an

offer on your home you want people to B

up David David here's what's going to

happen there are people that in the

middle of all of this stress are trying

to figure out how much money they can

get somebody shows up and underbids what

the true price Discovery could be in a

few months from now you don't know

whether you have to still pay back your

mortgage there will be people it will be

nonzero that will make a mistake and I

think that it's good to try to stop that

it doesn't absorb him from his

incompetence but this I think was

reasonably good what about the services

piece jamat the fact that you can't

increase pricing on goods and services

by more than 10% for an indefinite

period don't you think that that creates

a disincentive for service providers to

come into the state to come and address

the obviously it does yeah this Grand

ideal of the free market will solve

everything isn't necessarily always true

it's great in theory it reads well in a

textbook but real life is messy right

now we are in the messy part and we are

in the most critical part where the

abuses will be the highest I suspect

that in 6 months and 9 months and 12

months the free market will sort all of

these things out so if there's a

governor who can Implement some checks

and balances to protect these folks who

are probably totally dazed like for

example we know some of our friends I've

spoken to them over the last few days

I've spoken to their

wives

H I'll say I'll say it in in a horrible

way one person said this to me and I'll

just just quote him the amount of people

that have reached out to me if you had

asked me two weeks ago why would so many

people reach out with condolences I

would have thought that one of my

children had died that's what he said to

me and it completely struck me with it's

not on that same level but the amount of

emotional turmoil that these families

are going through probably approaches

that I don't think many of those people

are in a condition to make make good

decisions right now so I almost think a

cooling off period actually benefits

everybody it can allow the free market

to work in a few months from now we're

only talking 90 days no no the uh the

services thing is indefinite that's

that's what I think is a little bit

frustrating let me bring Mark in here

Mark you heard both sides of this

debate if you had a lot in the Pacific

Palisades that burned down and people

started making unsolicited offer listen

you're sophisticated I've known you for

20 plus years uh you're very

sophisticated

obviously but do you think that's a

reasonable thing to do to put a

moratorium on people making these low

bit offers and then we'll get to the

construction piece second but you know

what you offers unsolicited offers yes

unsolicited offers yeah what do what do

you think of that I think what what

bothers me about it there's a

presumption and and maybe chim's right

in it you're getting me to think about

it a little more than I was but but I'm

pretty much where freeberg is that we're

we're kind of treating these people like

children cuz we're what we're saying is

that they're not capable of making good

decisions so we need to protect them

from themselves and we're saying so we

don't want you to know that somebody is

willing to pay X dollar for your

property because you might take it and

you might regret later that you took

that is kind of what chamath is saying

no in a in a very narrow window where

you may not have the best and clearest

ability to make the best decision for

you because you're dealing with so many

other crazy issues in your life and you

could still say no you could say no but

you're presuming there's there's one

side that bothers me that feels like

what we've had from the Democratic party

forever which is that this this big wise

Overlord that's going to protect us from

our selves from our worst natures and

then on the other hand you're bringing

up something chat that I I hadn't

thought about that I'm just thinking

more about now which is well maybe

people could be taken advantage of at

the

margin because they're in they feel like

they're in a dire position but but if

they think they're in a dire position

they might really be in a dire position

so they might really well for example

let's just say that you haven't heard

back from the banks that own your

mortgage about whether there's going to

be a moratorium on mortgage payments

and so now you're trying to juggle

paying for an extra rental and this

house while you're trying to figure out

where to put your kids and somebody

shows up and says hey I will buy this

from you I think that there are a lot of

people who would otherwise be able to

make a much more rational decision who

may make a panic decision in that moment

and I think that if you give people a

90-day cooling off period I think it at

least shines a light on whether all of

this governmental and other

infrastructure can actually do something

for these people I do think that there

is a moment at which you can't govern

these things and all I'm suggesting is a

very narrow window of time where

people's feelings of just like

desperation are at their highest I think

that this is a decent thing to do you

know there is some precedent for the

state doing stuff like this you know in

Most states there is a cooling off

period with marriages and divorces you

you have to wait 3 Days To to file

either way to get married or to get

divorced let's talk about the

construction process here freeberg

because I think that's the most

important one because we're going to

rebuild if you don't pay a premium to

get somebody to leave another Market to

come to this one which is what's going

to be required there are simply not

enough construction people in any state

that's right so now you're competing

with another state that's right this

immediately triggered uh the debate and

D I say courage that Travis had around

this issue with surge pricing for Uber

lift and side car and a bunch of other

folks who were kind of virtue signaling

were like we don't ever want to do

search pricing therefore there were

never cars on the road on Friday and

Saturday nights when people needed them

or

during you know inclement weather

snowstorms

or on New Year's Eve and he said if you

want to increase Supply We Believe Uber

should have availability lift took a

different decision we're GNA have no

search pricing and they just simply

weren't available so maybe

what do you think about that piece

Pinkus you

think that the free market and people

should be able to say you know what I'll

pay you time and a half to come here

I'll pay you double time to work

Saturday and Sundays I'll get a couple

of RVs put them in the back if you want

to have some folks live on the

construction site and if you hit these

dates I'll pay you a bonus for hitting

it doesn't seem like any of that would

be wrong to me for somebody who had the

ability to pay an incentive for somebody

to move from another state would be out

of line here what are your thoughts on

that I agree I mean I'm I'm pretty much

just a free market believer and so I

think other than guardrails like chamat

saying and maybe I like the idea of

cooling off periods it kind of makes

sense but outside of that when it comes

to service providers yeah you have the

opposite problem right now which is like

you're saying you need to incentivize a

huge construction for

to come to LA and the cost for them to

get there to find housing themselves is

going to be even higher or the amount of

distance they're going to have to travel

every day so I think I think this could

have real unintended consequences and

just stop the just stop the wheels from

turning on rebuilding all these homes

which just make it way more complex so I

agree J final thoughts on the rebuild

and the free market in that regard yeah

I think this is where the government

ineptitude is at its

worst I think that we need to dismantle

this regulatory state that makes doing

the right thing impossible so

specifically the thing that Nome did was

essentially create

a Time expectation on when things will

get permitted and I think he said it was

like six months the problem is like this

is what just goes to show you how insane

the state has become even if you get a

permit within 6 months and this is where

I do agree with freeberg like getting

service people in and being able to

build something to spec safely is going

to take three four five six years and

it's going to be insane and the example

of the complete incompetence of the

California state government is if you

contrast and compare this with how the

state was able to respond in the North

Bridge earthquake and the crazy thing

which I thought was incredible was after

the 1994 Northridge Earthquake they

rebuilt I 10 right which is like that is

like a crazy

artery in 66 days guys they rebuilt it

not they permitted it not that they were

trying to get the California Coastal

commission to app on it not a Sierra

Club lawsuit about the Upper Land grous

they rebuilt it so you actually know

what's possible in California if if

Tradesmen are allowed to go to work yeah

they can build incredibly complicated

things with safety with speed this is

where Nome I don't think understands how

the real Market works because if you

looked at that example the real question

you should be asking is well what has

changed well Technology's gotten way

better since then the people are more

skilled there are more people to be able

to do more of these jobs and so why does

it only take six months to just get the

permit when in 120 days you could just

rebuild an entire Highway similarly why

aren't we saying that we expect these

homes built in the next three years get

these kids back in their homes and back

in school you know what they did on that

they offered a

$200,000 per day early build bonus on

that program back then so they basically

the the state declared we need this

freeway reopened and here's the date it

was like 144 days and they're like

you'll get a $200,000 bonus for every

day under 144 that you deliver it soever

w show me an incentive I'll show you an

outcome exactly the really interesting

thing here is there are regulations that

this is a unique

opportunity to put in place Nick if you

can pull it up there was a home that

wasn't burned in the Pacific Palisades

and the architect talked about some of

the design decisions

there you know have having Stone scaping

around your home gravel Etc and using

these new materials and not having

overhangs uh which and then having vents

into your uh addict which is what a lot

of homes have and the Embers get into

the addict there's an overhang and

they're not using and they're they're

all wood built you know none of this is

concrete none of it's brick California

is all wood and so they probably should

add some regulations about building

things that are fireproof because if you

had a 100 homes that were all fireproof

and built to withstand this that would

act as a natural break and if you didn't

have as much vegetation so there's

probably a series of things that should

be added here in terms of regulations

while you're getting rid of some of the

ones that are slowing you down right um

but let's pivot over to oh and then

finally like allowing people to park

their mobile homes in these places to

have housing for construction to your

point mark would be super critical and

they block that kind of stuff so when

you need temporary housing in California

you can't do it

by the way I want to I want to hear what

freeberg has to say about insurance but

let me connect the dots between what you

said and what he's about to say there

are three images I just want to show you

guys and to Bubble this up for everybody

that isn't necessarily living in

California and is consumed with what all

of this means there's a bigger Trend

across the country that I think is just

worth putting out there so Nick do you

want to just show the first chart from

FEMA so this is basically a graph

per locality all over the United States

where FEMA tries to assess the disaster

risk for living in a given area and what

you see here is that there's some risk

in living on the Eastern Seaboard and

there's a lot of risk in it's growing

for living on the western Seaboard and

the two most complicated states that

have to deal with this are clearly

Florida and

California so that's one which is this

is a problem that isn't just focused on

this one little area so then if you

double click a little bit further

there's a company called core logic they

publish a lot of real estate data here's

a chart about the western United States

that just double clicks into Wildfire

risk and I was shocked when I saw this

this is first of all most of California

this is like Nevada this is Arizona this

is parts of Texas this is Washington I

didn't even know the fire risk went up

that high but this is essentially a lot

of the western United States and then

the last chart goes through and it

actually does core logic does an

assessment of the value at risk so in

California it's three4 of a trillion

dollars that are at about 1.26 million

homes that are at moderate or great risk

of fires in Colorado it's about 141

billion in Texas it's 88 billion in

Oregon it's 45 billion in Arizona 36

billion the point is that everything you

said

Jason now needs to get Scaled out

meaning there needs to be a national

level conversation this can't be a bunch

of city planners making code and making

laws in a little municipality yeah

because that problem what that shows you

is we have a multi-trillion doll risk to

a lot of people in the Western United

States specifically around this issue

that has to get dealt with by code all

right really interesting in New York

finally New York has put into place

congestion pricing I've been waiting for

this my entire life here's a math this

went into effect January 5th this

congestion pricing concept exists in

London as everybody probably

knows basically if you're below Central

Park which is six stage straight in

Manhattan and you enter between 5:00

a.m. and 900 p.m. you're going to get

you know on your easy pass a charge of

but $9 cheaper than a bacon egg and

cheese in Manhattan these days if you're

going clubbing in Manhattan between 9:00

p.m. and 5:00 a.m. it's just like two

bucks it's going to increase to $12 in

2028 and $15 in 2031 trucks pay more

taxes pay less the results have been

awesome weight times to get on the

island are down 50% across the board

Lincoln Tunnel down 46% Holland Tunnel

down 63% Williamsburg Bridge down 35%

it's just an awesome effort when I live

there man as a resident the traffic was

nuts you can have emergency services

move a lot faster you get rid of noise

pollution you obviously get rid of air

quality pollution for ice engines uh

it's great for cabs great for

pedestrians and great for bike riders

the only people really complaining are

selfish and entitled people who Drive

their cars into Manhattan that's at

least my position on it opponents are

saying it's a money grab for the transit

authority because the money from this

goes to make public transportation

better what do you think Mark you in

favor of

this yeah I think more generally I feel

like since the pandemic what's been on

my mind a lot living still in San

Francisco I wanted to start a social

network called still here uh it's like

oh you still live here me too some way

for us to like come out of our houses

and notice that you're here and I'm here

but we never leave our homes I walk

around this city at my own risk and I

like the cities I feel like cities have

lost the point like they've lost the

plot like why we've kind of we still

live in cities or value them but I feel

like we have to go back to First

principles and think like why did we

move to cities in the first place and

what was the value supposed to be and is

that still the deal we're getting or is

there it have to be a new deal because

we used to live in a city because it was

economic we were closer to our job and

then we lived in a city because there

was a high density of things that we

wanted cultural people restaurants and

the best cities really were the ones

that are fun to walk around and then we

got to a point where it's not safe or

clean to walk around you don't work in

the city anymore and San Francisco

started to feel like this gigantic like

retirement community it's just all these

people who still live here because their

kids are in school maybe or they grew up

here you know a lot of our friends left

went to Austin and other places and we

started I I don't know about chamat but

I think or Dave but I think our family

has a conversation probably twice a year

of should we move why haven't we moved

what's wrong with us and so there's this

questioning going on around cities and I

think it's a good question and I think

cities need to innovate aggressively to

give to be better they have to compete

with the other options again they have

to make it fun to be there fun to work

there I think it's great that Daniel

lurry is mayor of San Francisco and he's

putting smart people around him and

they're trying to rethink first some of

attacking these core problems but also

how do we make San Francisco fun again

so I love things like congestion pricing

I think now is the time to try every new

innovation that you ever thought of and

see what sticks and and figure out like

how do you take this this tax not

literally I mean New York has a big tax

but this tax on all of us whether it is

that you can't walk across this city

that you don't feel safe or that that

the the good side of it being fun to be

in you know is that the the deal is off

and so I think you know and I also what

I'm hoping Daniel lurry does and other

smart Mayors is that they Benchmark and

they say who's doing it really well

around the world whether it's dealing

with homelessness or things like

congestion

pricing who's who's innovating and doing

it well and why aren't we doing it here

I mean I think you got to run these you

got to reinvent these cities and you

know sorry to sound cliche but I think

you got to kind of take a startup

mentality and say you're not going to

live on your incumbency anymore you've

got

to reinvent this and we can't make

companies come back to work you know

come back to the office I mean the

companies can make their employees but

it'd be really nice if the employees

wanted to be there um you know and you

can't make people live in California so

I'm in favor yeah chamath any thoughts

on Mark's point about making cities fun

again and joyful again sounds like a

pretty pretty good

platform I mean I think he's right um

San Francisco sucks it's trash they

never go there yeah it's terrible and

the reason that you don't like to go

there is it's dirty it's disgusting

there's crime there's

Grime everything just sucks there yeah

freeberg your thoughts uh

on the Gotham City that did he visit you

in the Dave did chat ever come to the

Presidio I have come to your office I've

come to Dave's office I've come to I've

gone to Peter's office there but what I

do is I I don't even go through the city

I go all the way around I drive all

through the East Bay up through Berkeley

and I come I'm just kidding no no no I

just think that the city is very poorly

managed and just the quality of many

cities are poorly managed and I think

that there's a common through line in

these poorly managed cities all the

things that you say there's no will to

do there's no will to keep crime at Bay

there's no will to make you know usable

spaces for people there's no will to

invest in the Arts so what do you expect

right there's more money collected by

these cities but there's just just more

total grift corruption and waste I

really like that you got to this will

point because whether we come back to

the coastal commission or not or talk

about California or San Francisco I

don't think it's really about the red

tape I think it's about the willpower of

of the people who are running the tape

and reading the tape you're 100% right

did you see this thing I have to read

this to you because this is really

stunning I sorry Mark keep going but I

you're still th% right you know because

sure okay maybe maybe in one case Gavin

can override the coastal commission but

it doesn't matter if you cut their red

tape by 90% as long as there's any tape

that they can use the people running

both the St there and the people on the

board have stated on their website that

their policy is managed retreat they

drew a new map of the California

coastline if that's their intention

they're going to look for anything they

can to to stop and obstruct you so it's

it's really not like their hands are

tied because there's so much permitting

you're you're right they' made a

decision and the decision in California

and San Francisco specifically was that

we're going to cater to fentol dealers

and junkies and that those people were

going to get a stipend a hotel room and

be allowed to take a super drug on the

streets thousands of people with no

recourse listen I'm pro drug okay here's

I sent you guys a I sentation but not

for fentol and meth these things are

super drugs yeah let's make it less

about San Francisco let's talk about

middle Ohio and let's talk about Ender

Palmer lucky did this really awesome

shout up really awesome interview Nick I

just sent you the link to it he's

building a new Ohio plant but the

question and answer from the interviewer

is exactly what pink has talked about

which is will the interview

says was this the only state that could

guarantee that timeline that you needed

and here's Palmer's answer was this the

only state that could guarantee that

timeline I think that they were the

state that gave us the best shot of

hitting that timeline look we've really

Eng well with jobs Ohio with a lot of

the politicians here uh not just at the

state level but the local level you know

like you said we're hiring 4,000 people

here in direct jobs a lot more jobs than

that in a direct or sorry an indirect

capacity it's the largest single job

creation event in Ohio history it was a

state that told us we have the workforce

we have a million people who are capable

of working in this facility within a

45-minute drive we're willing to work

with you on higher education to help

train people so they can come in and

they can work with you uh our customer

in the the United Air for United States

Air Force obviously it's a huge presence

here in the form of right Patterson Air

Force Base so really all the stars align

to make Ohio a great place for us to do

it and to do it fast and speaking

candidly as someone who is from

California there's some states that are

really good at uh pushing you out and

slowing you down and there's others that

are great at pulling you in and speeding

you up and that's what Ohio was

fantastic yeah states are competing for

elite

companies and there's a willpower that's

that there's an

intention and you know that if they want

to make it happen they'll make it happen

just like Gavin just did right you Gavin

could have theoretically I don't know

signed an executive order to override

the coastal Commission on lot even his

diesel plant like I don't know why he

didn't just force that through but if we

had diesel maybe there'd be more water

to fight the fire now so I think the

important thing is to note that cities

have a right to be what they want to

be you guys might find this surprising

but I'm not necessarily of the belief

that every city should necessarily cater

to progress and acceleration and

enterpris and

industrialization look when you go to

Pino every summer chth you would

probably you know stop going and would

be disappointed if you found out that

they were building a giant glass tower

apartment complex and a giant office

building right by the Portofino Port

like that's just not the character of

what that City wants to be and I do

remember when I first moved to San

Francisco 25 years ago it was it felt

like a smaller European like City it

wasn't overrun with technology companies

at the time and it was a the charm and

the quaint nature and the smaller

buildings of San Francisco that made it

a beautiful fantastic town I think that

part of the challenge of San Francisco

has been this diametrically kind of

opposed Viewpoint of progress from the

technology sector and a desire to keep

San Francisco a small City by the bay

and that that frustration has manifested

with a lot of kind of ugliness over the

the last couple decades in addition to

obviously all the silly stupid policies

that just make no sense whatsoever

they're rooted in people thinking that

this is a good solution in the short

term but it creates extraordinary damage

and harm in the long term separate but I

do think that cities have a right to be

what they want to be and I think that

Dave I think that's just I just want to

interject as a fellow San Franciscan for

a long time um just as long is that

that's the normal tension that's been

here all along and that kind of makes

the city culture great and there's you

want to have this

creative uh Melting Pot here but there's

this other side that I think has come

into play in the last 15 20 years or I

don't 10 15 years which is this

progressivism side which we saw Chessa

you know with and I think it's it's

different virus that's the ugly

silliness I meant I was saying but like

let's put that aside let's put San

Francisco aside I do think that a city

can and should be what it wants to be

does it want to attract and build in

Industry does it want to attract and

build enterprising companies or does it

want to be a small quain town does it

want to stay you know with no h that's a

false trade-off the problem is that

people in government at every level

sells the former doesn't doesn't

actually even give them that nor the

ladder what they give them is a

dysfunctional hellscape instead well

Cino doesn't do that right because it

doesn't make those promises it's not

asking to elect people that are trying

to do it not every City's making that

though why are we lying to everybody and

why are people falling for these lies

over and over and over again there's

there's a moral Clarity in telling the

truth bino doesn't try to do that but I

don't think the point is you're saying

that the cities that that promise that

and don't deliver that your San

Francisco promises it right London

promises it New York promises it these

things are chaotic messes mhm and it's

not the trade-off of oh well Parris has

found a way to stay quaint that was

never on the ballot some person comes up

and says I'm going to spend x billion

dollars a year then another person shows

up is is actually I'm going to spend it

a totally different way they both claim

to have measurements of how it's going

to be great and my point is none of them

are rooted in the real world nobody

knows how to actually run a business all

the money gets wasted and nothing

happens it neither stays quaint nor does

it

Advance if you were uh living in Los

Angeles you had the opportunity to have

Rick Caruso who built so many

amazing experiences and uh shops for the

citizens there and you picked Karen bass

I looked on her Wikipedia page looking

for any kind of operational position she

ever felt it's you want to read her

resume it's tragic I mean just it's

tragic she I would like I said last week

not send her to get my lunch because you

know that order would be totally screwed

up she is so dis so unqualified and you

had this perfect person Rick Caruso who

literally you can't script this he built

the Pacific Palisades

Village when the days before there was

going to be a fire do you know what he

did he hired water trucks to park on

those streets you can find the picture

Nick pull it up and he hired

firefighters and people to protect the

village that he

built Karen bass was in Ghana partying

taking meetings I don't know what the

connection between Los Angeles and their

citizens and what they need to get done

and Ghana after she promised she would

not do this Global you know uh Globe

trotting which she apparently has a

track record of

doing she left and stayed there knowing

this was all coming Rick ruso who you

didn't vote for

mayor he did the right thing vote these

people out recall Karen bass you can do

it we recall Chessa Boudin you remember

on this show David Sachs is a a

republican entrepreneur venture

capitalist good friend of mine I'll

introduce you guys if you haven't met

him he started a recall chesa Boudin

movement I hired a journalist to cover

the victims of crime in San Francisco

Chessa Boudin was out in 18 months you

can recall these people they're

unqualified take action start a recall

they'll tell you oh it's not a good

thing for continuity whatever these

people are not qualified they are not

thinking in your best interest you have

no choice citizens of Los Angeles but to

get these people out immediately every

day they stay in office they are going

to cause more damage to your family your

property and your city we call them now

didn't James Woods post a petition on

change.org that I saw on Twitter it was

already I signed it though I don't live

there and I think it was already over

like 90,000 you know names I mean you

you you have power the people of

California don't understand how much

power they have when Gavin new I just

told people on Twitter jamou every time

Gavin tweets or Karen best Tweets just

reply with the word resign hundreds of

people are doing it now shame these

people into resigning it's a very mature

way for you to affect you you know what

it worked in Brooklyn shame worked I

don't know why people think they have no

power you can literally just go in there

and do things and one of the things you

can do is recall them okay do we have

anything else except your pical left on

the docket all right Tik tok's future is

in question right now the ban is about

to happen unless the pairing company

bite dance divest by January 19th which

is this Sunday Tik Tok will be banned in

America Google and apple are going to be

forced to remove Tik Tok from their app

stores and Oracle Tik tok's cloud

provider has to stop providing hosting

services and cut ties assuming bite

dance doesn't come up with a last minute

deal tick Talk's only hope is the

Supreme Court blocking the law what do

you think Mark do you think it's Chinese

spyware do you think they should be

forced to divest what do you think their

repercussions will be here's what's so

hard for me about this on the one hand

part of it seems so obvious from a both

not just National Security point of view

but also just fairness like it's insane

if you think about it that there's a

Chinese company that's arguing in court

for protections under our Constitution

and freedom of speech when none of our

companies have those kinds of Rights in

China much less the right to even

operate there if they're not majority

controlled or in line like you guys

talked about with censorship or whatever

else so on the one hand it seems like a

no-brainer to me that on this case but

what you're starting to see come up in

the last couple days I'm even hearing it

from one of my daughters who's a major

Tik tocker is the law of unintended

consequences here is that we could see

this band especially if they don't get

to a deal with somebody and then the 170

million Americans many younger Americans

who rely on this all a sudden feel like

this is censoring them and it's taking

away their freedom of expression

question and it could backfire in a lot

of ways and we're already seeing memes

where they're going on to these other

apps like there's this chines book red

book which is even worse right I think

that one is owned by the Chinese

government and so we're driving them

there and so so I'm the best outcome I

think would be forced to divest and sell

to another American company but if that

doesn't happen I I'm kind of nervous

about a a real backlash I'm delighted

jamath that our kids are gonna go out

and play and have friendships and stop

scrolling on T talk what you describe

sound sounds awesome I literally get on

their iPads and phones when I sometimes

allow them to have phones and just

delete the app and then they go get it

back of course of course K are right

around it what do you think Cham what do

you think's GNA happen here I mentioned

this

to president Trump and I and I really

think this is true the reason why there

was so much bipartisan support for the

bill as it worked through Congress is

because I think that they were briefed

on just how severe the security

violations of this app are because I

don't think we've seen anything in

modern history that is that that is this

controversial yet be so almost unanimous

yeah so I think that that's an important

data point there is something happening

in the app that they've been briefed

on that makes them take this posture

and when I listened to the Supreme Court

arguments I didn't hear a very

compelling reason why this ban should be

overturned so I do agree with Mark that

we have to find a suitable

home and I think that we'll probably

find one and I think that it probably

happens under the Trump

presidency and whoever gets their hands

on it gets their hands on an incredible

asset that they will be able to buy

extremely cheaply because there is no

way that is a fair market value here

deal for that asset because whoever is

the buyer is in the total cat bird seat

and in order to get a deal done with the

federal government I think you're just

going to get a basically like a buy at

now price that's very cheap the other

thing that I'll say though on a totally

separate tangent so when I started

hunting around Tik tok's realtime

recommendation algorithm was open source

the learning method yep Nick do you want

to just throw it up here it's called

monolith this is an incredible paper the

cleverness of what these guys have built

cannot be

underestimated and what's incredible is

what they describe in this paper which I

think frankly a lot of social apps would

benefit from

understanding is exactly how they've

built it to essentially not take this

more monolithic training approach for

recommendations but how do you do it in

real time how do you make it

collisionless it's

incredible this paper is a tour to force

and it just makes me realize that

despite the

political maneuvering of this hot potato

there are some folks that have been

working in that app or in you know the

parent company that are truly

technically talented and it's a it's a

bit of a shame that they're going to get

sort of throw the baby out with the bath

water so to speak so people should know

that there's some technological

innovations inside of bike dance and Tik

Tok that are just truly amazing feats of

computer science this is an example it

doesn't though change the fact that I

think that enough of Congress and the

rest of the security apparatus know that

this is a mechanism to spy I think you

both nailed it isn't China saying though

that they're going to if this does get

divested they're going to keep either

bite dance or Chinese government saying

we're not going to give over the

algorithm or are you saying it's open

source it doesn't matter well this was

an example of just sort of like

describing the methodology it's not

functionally open source yet but I think

that open sourcing it doesn't solve the

problem and the reason is so let's just

say that you're Pegasus was able to

reverse engineer or build penetration

attacks into WhatsApp that were

imperceptible to everybody until it

happened to Jeff Bezos to other people

right where you get these state

sponsored attacks on your

phone and all of a sudden you're dealing

with this attack Vector that then you

call the FBI and they take your phone

and they help you deal with it's

happened to a bunch of people that's

happened to me

twice so

the fact that these things can happen

and then the attack vectors get

incrementally more and more

sophisticated it used to be that there

was a PDF payload then there can just be

an image payload now it's any payload

right and you don't even have to click

to open it and all of a sudden they just

roots your phone so these are extremely

sophisticated mechanisms that are

enabled by a very few very talented

people talented I'll put in

quotes but when those talented people

work on the wrong side you have to act

so open sourcing it won't solve this

these these exploits are known to a few

and I think that if it's known to the

NSA this is probably what was disclosed

to folks under confidentiality that

caused them to get to this conclusion I

think people just need to wake up and

realize the Chinese government does not

have Americans best interest at hard I

mean the there there is no concept of

reciprocity as you mentioned Mark that's

the number one reason to do this number

two what you pointed out your mouth with

security and if you think about the two

biggest imports from China right now

it's Fentanyl and Tik Tock here's what I

will say want to make us addicted they

want to impact our society they want to

divide us this is an a massive scops

that's going on it is a scops and it is

a spyware and it's been proven they

spied on journalists these are Bad

actors it has to go I was super excited

when I saw that there was the potential

that X would take over Tik Tok and the

reason I say that is I do think that if

you can take the video content of Tik

Tok and the graph of

creators but have a different app and a

different substrate be the delivery

mechanism where you know that it's much

safer and it's governed by an American

that to me would be the compromise so I

think the app should go away but if you

can somehow give creators a path to sort

of like restart their content creating

capabilities on X I think that that's

actually a pretty good one you guys

notice in the app freeberg that the left

hand tab um because you have following

shop and for you they added a leftand

tab all the way over that stem and it's

just science technology engineering and

math content I've not noticed that yeah

take a look I don't know if it's just

mine and they're microt targeting me

because they know I'm such a fan of stem

but I think it's for everybody any

thoughts uh Dave as we wrap on the Tik

Tok seems like they're going to strike

deal Chuck Schumer today is calling for

a delay in the ban I'm sure by the time

this episode airs something will have

been worked out to create some space for

them to get a deal done but I think they

want to get a deal done and keep Tick

Tock active in the US seems like both

the Dems and the Republicans are pushing

for it so this kind of also leads to

what I think will

be the grand deal with China which I

think will happen in the first six

months of the Trump Administration I'm

obviously speculating but it feels like

there's going to be some workout here

China is like in a lot of economic

distress I don't know if you guys have

followed much on the stories of the

deflationary challenges that China is

dealing with Chinese bonds are trading

at a below 2% yield now which is kind of

unprecedented and there's this real

concern that China is in a very

significant economic deflationary spiral

so they're in a very weakened position

economically at the moment the United

States seems to be in a position of

strength and I would imagine just given

the rhetoric

that this Administration may try to work

out again some deal that's going to

provide access to the Chinese market in

exchange for the US minimizing the

Tariff effect on Chinese um importers to

the US so there could be I think

something you know that eases the the

tension with China and creates you know

Mutual economic value in the first six

months of the administration we'll see I

mean it's a great Point Trump is a great

negotiator it's probably his greatest

strength and he's great at saber

rattling and we're strong they're weak

right now a grand deal could be an

awesome outcome I think this was my one

of my this was my contrarian prediction

I think um oh no this was my stock this

was my stock prediction yeah this was

like my I picked the Chinese tech stocks

yeah same I I've been loading up on