Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs
2554 segments
all right everybody welcome back to the
Allin podcast the number
one Finance technology business and Maga
podcast in the
world with us again today is the sulate
of science David freeberg living a
modern 1950s aesthetic lifestyle there
this is the uh House of Tomorrow House
of the future world at the original um
1955 Tomorrowland at Disneyland wow and
you have a NASA hat on this is amazing
he's in full geek out mode yeah I didn't
this I told you guys about this haircut
last week because you couldn't blow
yourself that's right properly I told
you this would happen to you it's
exactly what your M said would happen
look at the continuity he told you you
could never match the blow you got last
week and here we are I did my best I
mean it looks ridiculous but stylish in
a way and with us again your chairman
dictator chamath poly hop
he's ready to go to the
inauguration and take his Victory lap
and take an enormous amount of credit
shamad are you looking forward to your
Victory lap I was in Florida earlier
this week I came all the way back so
that I could play poker with my friends
and see my family and children oh nice
and I'll be flying all the way back out
tomorrow morning were you at maral Lago
no I was with my friend in a undisclosed
location with a friend in an undisclosed
location okay sounds great and joining
us for the first time one of my oldest
friends Mr Mark Pinkus or as we like to
say Marcus Pinkus why do you always take
credit for these guests being only your
friends the rest of us are the ones that
call them and are like hey do you want
to come on the show and then you're like
my old think longer than you I don't
know about that is that true back to
like AOL yeah well we met when you were
doing silicon alley right reporter yeah
in the 90s I've been collecting rent
from Mark pinkis for the last year it's
true my landlord you should whistleblow
on freeberg to Gavin's gouging police
and see if you can get
some let your winners
[Music]
ride
[Music]
David we open sources to the fans and
they've just gone crazy with it Queen
we'll get right to that in a minute uh
the price couch continues if our viewers
had to vote on who is most likely to
price couch it's 100% free BR th% but
let's be clear the real gouging is the
predio trust who's charging an amazingly
high rent like over $100 a foot and then
freeberg was actually giving me a pretty
good deal he was getting a pretty good
deal I was paying like 130 a foot or
something 120 130 a foot all in uh for
real estate in the Presidio and we just
weren't using the space but it is the
most expensive real estate it is nuts
quite an office my Lord the prio trust
manages that federal land and they get
to keep all the money and reinvest it
it's probably the only profitable
operation in the federal government I
used to be on the board so I I saw it
close up and they they reinvest in
things like you know restoring natural
habitats cutting down eucalyptus trees
right you know archaeological digs right
right it was really interesting I looked
at one of those those
houses to rent when it was first moving
up to San Francisco and the only problem
with those houses have these gorgeous
houses that were like the General's
houses like three four five bedrooms but
they would have one
bathroom right for four rooms and I like
can you put another bathroom and cannot
change anything these are historic
privileges so you know historic
landmarks marked it freeloader tribe
social network back in the day
support.com and if you wasted some
portion of your youth playing
Farmville he was one of the original app
creators or Zinga poker which famously
he said hey would you like to be an
investor in Zinga poker and I said how
does it work he said oh well you play
for virtual coins and I said Mark this
is the stupidest thing I've ever heard
you've taken all of the money out of the
the the game it's never going to work
and of course he turned it into a
multi-billion dollar company and that
was another $25 million Angel investment
Miss on my part but Mark you were also
like early General social networking you
were involved in Facebook as an investor
Linked In weren't you like ear on yeah I
I think the first social media
investment I made was Napster I sent the
first check Wow first $100,000 I think
of that as the beginning of all this but
then yeah Reed and I put up the first
money for
friender and then we were lucky enough
to invest along with Peter in the first
round Facebook wow the First on on
Twitter so yeah like pick the right body
of water even if your boat doesn't tribe
didn't
work but but you placed five other bats
so you hit a couple of them it works out
just
fine you uh I believe you owned the six
degrees patents the original social
network in the 90s in web 1.0 was a
company called six degrees and uh they
had a bunch of patents and I believe you
bought them and then sold them to
Facebook yeah no we didn't sell them
Reed and I bought them because we were
worried that if Yahoo at the time had
gotten them or even Friendster that they
would have blocked the whole industry so
we bought them we we paid 750k which was
a lot then and we were accused of being
patent trolls and we never got that
opportunity we just sat on them to this
day actually I own half and Microsoft
owns other half are you still close with
with Reed Mark yeah very close how did
you guys reconcile your differences and
political views in this last election
because he was very vocal kamla you
obviously became vocal Trump and very
kind of kind of diametrically different
views on the
future well it's interesting because
Reed and I really started the whole kind
of journey into bigger National politics
together we both sat down and had lunch
with Biden and made wrote big checks uh
a little over a year ago December of
23 and and then you know won't bother
you but I I had my red pill moment and I
went a very different direction which
started off just questioning the
Democrats hold on hold on can you
actually just double click into that
what was your red pill moment was there
one specific thing or was it more of a
trickle of things it was both right it
starts the wall starts crumbling and
then it comes down all at once so for me
it really
started early in 23 I started reading
pirate wires and Mike salana and I
thought he was a little crazy at first
because he would write these articles
one he wrote was about how the Ukrainian
soldiers had swastikas on their helmets
in the New York Times photographers
would ask them to take the saskas off
for photos and I said that can't be
right that can't be true
and then four months later it was in the
New York Times buried in the middle of
the paper and I kept seeing stories like
that that that he would be early on and
so I just started feeling uncomfortable
and Queasy about what was going on with
mainstream media and then in May of last
year of 24 I read some article that
talked about Trump's speech in
Charlottesville and this has been well
covered but but where he said there was
good people on both sides Ides and the
article said it was completely you know
propaganda and not what he actually not
accurately reflecting what he said that
uh that he denounced the Nazis a bunch
of times in his speech and so then I
went and watched that video and that was
my red pill moment I think it was for a
lot of people because it wasn't just the
media spinning it or politicians
spinning it that was like one of the
pillars of why you were supposed to hate
Trump
that speech and and then you
see Biden say that's why he had to run a
second time and you see Obama go to you
even see Biden bring it up again in the
beginning of the DNC and it's one of
their pillars and they clearly know that
they're misrepresenting things so for me
that was just that was beyond
uncomfortable I was just like okay now I
got to go back to First principles and
look at the primary data and listen only
to original speech by people and I just
realized I couldn't trust mainstream
media so I was I became I started
questioning the Democrats as soon as I
started questioning the Democrats I
started getting a lot of Shame and anger
and hatred oh the other thing that
happened those part of this journey is
that my chief of staff parted ways with
me after nine years in April of last
year and he was the main person
protecting me from myself on Twitter and
he was the one who would say stay in
your lane nobody wants to hear what you
think about politics or San Francisco or
anything other than you know your area
of products and investing and with him
gone I just started tweeting whatever I
felt and thought and sometimes I got it
wrong or it was a little too emotional
but first of all it was really fun and
then second of all I found I got
connected to this whole new audience of
people who are these kind of techno
optimists I think you guys probably
talked about
it and
that just brought me down this path that
eventually I came out two days before
the
election publicly for Trump um and it
was only because that's when I
completely got there and I was trying to
just be completely honest and authentic
with myself and on Twitter at the same
time and my daughters turned to me that
Sunday and they said you're you're going
to vote for Trump we know it and I said
yeah you're probably right and they said
well then you have to go say it on
Twitter and my daughter's like really in
this with me yeah so anyway and then it
was on the front page of the New York
Post on the day of the election that I
was uh this not that I'm such news but
maybe it just was their news Peg um that
I was coming out for Trump and but I'll
get back to your re question but what I
love about my New York Times about my
New York friends is that they did not
give a they were all proa and they
texted me and they're just like oh
that's kind of funny but it's one thing
I kind of love about New York they
didn't care back to your question on
Reed what I love about Reed was he was
already getting pings from people saying
what's going on with pinkis he's going
off the rails he's becoming a Trumper
you know it's you guys I'm sure have
gone down got a little bit of that too
about shamas in
freeberg yeah me like what's wrong with
him we got to bring him back into the
fold you know he's he's should we lock
him up is he crazy um and so Reed was
already getting these I had a lot of
anxiety about talking to Reed about it
and finally Reed and I got on
FaceTime and he just said I just want to
start by saying I'm team Mark and I said
I'm team Reed and it gets out a little
you know a a but well no Americans can
get along even if they disagree ically
about a candidate is probably where we
need to get to especially you know now
that Trump's going to be in office in a
couple of days what was it like when you
had for Biden yeah okay well just to
finish the read part sorry but no
problem what what I love about Reed is
that we followed that with a 4-Hour
dinner and he said I never questioned
your principles he said I know you're a
highly principled person and I just want
to understand which principles it is and
I'd like to convince to change your mind
but anyway so was hold on one second
so I you said something almost in
passing but I just want to double click
I think part of what Silicon Valley
actually gets wrong is that we don't
embrace the tism and what I mean by that
is everybody we're all a little socially
uncomfortable we awkward I wouldn't say
that we were the coolest people growing
up and there this virulent form of
blockers you called it Chief of Staff I
think that these folks can be very
detrimental which almost represent this
filter between your true self and
everybody else and there is this game
that's played about being a
gatekeeper I do think that executive
assistants are valuable administrative
assistance are valuable the reason I can
say this is that my EA went on maternity
leave I had and I experimented with a
chief of staff Etc and now I use Jason
service called Athena and I have a guy
that works with me in the
Philippines and it's about 3,000 a month
and I can honestly tell you this guy is
the single most effective administrative
support I've ever had and what there
isn't is all these opinions on what I
can say or do and I think that when you
look at a lot of these big companies if
you look at zuck's current
transformation or what you just spoke
about there are all these
Interlopers that seem to get in the
middle of you and people's perception of
you I don't know if you have any
comments or reactions to that idea yeah
it's part of where I know you guys have
talked about Zuck coming out as Lisa's
based or his seemingly more authentic
self or sharing more about himself and I
can relate to it because I think we all
go through this this struggle as you
start to be more of a known person
inside your company outside your company
and you have people around you taking
the edges off and I think that we're now
in this time that I think we're having
authenticity is having a moment now
which is great for me because Reed said
to me I I've if you Google me you'll see
that there's lots and lots of bad things
written about me and a lot of it is my
high school quote was some people have
tacked and others tell the truth and
I've always been kind of just committed
to being honest even if it's nuanced and
it's not an easy sound bite and Reed
said to me early on you need to pick
what the easy narrative is or the Press
is going to make it up for you and he
was right and they did or my competitors
did so I think that now with long form
podcasts and there's just more and the
fact that we can kind of directly in a
lot of ways Elon was the first one to
directly defend himself you remember
when well he fired his whole do you
remember when he fired his whole PR team
he fired all those people there's just
like there's none of that infrastructure
between him and and everybody else but
do you remember when he would be on
Twitter all the time post PayPal trying
to correct the story and just write long
long diet tribes and then and then when
a New York Times reported said something
negative about a Tesla he just went off
for weeks about them and and it seemed a
little crazy and deranged and then you
started to see that it worked like he
actually and we were told don't defend
yourself if something bad is written
about you you're going to prolong the
press cycle you're going to make the
journalist
angry and so we've we're now Unshackled
I I teach this class at Stanford and I
taught two backtack on Monday and I
looked around and I saw half the plaque
her said you know she her you know he
him his and I got a little Pang of like
oh do I have to watch what I'm saying
I'm like no I don't I'm Unshackled I'm
just gonna this is just me and I'm gonna
be Mark unfiltered and it's the better
version of ourselves so anyway I I'm
glad that Zuck feels like he can be he
can present more of his complete self
out there now and I think we can get
into it later but I have a lot of
thoughts on how the culture is going to
kind of move more towards Bas back to
the other question with Biden that lunch
you had did he seem like he was all
there yeah come on was it in the
afternoon I mean did you have concerns
about that that was sharp as attack that
was thing that broke me I mean I'm not
saying I'm like full mag over here I was
like wait a second are you guys lying
about this like how long is this and how
deep is this cover up I have no horse in
this race I didn't have a horse in the
race so I had nothing to lie about I for
sure don't now I'm really not a Biden
fan or
protector I'll tell you like the exact
my exact observation we we had this
lunch there was like maybe five of us
with Biden and a few of his Finance
people in they had it in the tennis
house which is the way they found that
they can have a fundraising lunch on the
property of the White House they found
some way we'll see if if Trump does it
hole right yeah the loophole and and it
was I was impressed it was a long launch
it must have been hour and a half two
hours and I'll tell you the good and the
bad the good the part I was impressed
was he kept the conversation thread he
was engaged and kept the thread the
whole time when people you say sharp as
attack or kept the thread that's how we
talk about like our 90-year-old
grandparent or something so I'm just
saying the reality to me he he was
not he did not seem mentally debilitated
in the sense of
dementia but we were impressed that he
was able to follow the conversation
thread and then say you know but okay
let me say it differently would you have
had the same bar if it was Jamie Diamond
sitting across from you for 2our
lunch no no so so so yes it was it was
wow your grandfather is holding up
really well like your grandfather was
able to have a whole lunch and hold the
conversation but it wasn't I didn't walk
away saying I I have to admit I did not
walk away saying I think he's mentally
unfit but I did but and I wasn't shocked
but I was like okay this is someone
who's being really handled and managed
by the people around him and he's being
told to show up here say say this but I
will say he was he was not on an obvious
script which I know I think famously he
did some fundraiser at vod's house where
he was reading a prompter the whole time
so wasn't reading a
prompter yeah that at a at a person's
home they brought a teleprompter for him
to speak wow that's you didn't hear that
I didn't actually that's new information
that's yeah crazy but I mean In fairness
like the um there's this issue called
Sun Downing people who are in that age
group they're good in the day and then
the sun goes down and you know their
brains are exhausted and and that's when
you would see it and that's what they
said about the debate but for me that
was the the coronation of comma and like
not actually having a speedrun primary
that to me was just anti-democratic
anti-American and like just what
happened to Meritt and like having a
process here right that's when I felt
like the party just CED
I'm glad you're here let's jump um okay
but let me ask you a question before we
get into the doc we got a lot to talk
about obviously but what do you think
the Democratic party does from here like
is everybody's like this they're lost in
a drift we're not even hearing from them
maybe a little bit of uh push back I
guess at
these Senate hearings right now for
confirmations but what do you think
happens is there any hope for this and
and who would lead them out of this
Shapiro somebody
AOC I think that what my brain my kind
of intelligent front of brain would tell
me the logical thing which I think I
want to say is one lens that I think we
have to be careful not to just apply
logic here because it's parties and and
the Democrats but the logic would say oh
they're going to find based authentic
people to put up against these other
ones like the kind of Federman types
that they're going to put those people
forth who are more Centrist and also are
more trustworthy that they're actually
authentic in their flaws that's what my
brain would tell me I think there'll be
a little of that that the party I
believe is will move more that way I
think that the corporate candidates
aren't going to fly anymore with the
electorate I think that the managed
corporate through sound bites can't do a
long form things like this I think
that's over and we can get into that
later if we want but I think they won't
go as far as they should so so they the
they won't go as far as like what I
think we would intelligently advise them
to do so so that's as much as I can
figure out that they should do that but
they won't interesting well we're
certainly going to find out in the next
year or two what their direction is when
they get to the midterms I suppose oh
one more thing though on it is yeah and
a lot of it depends on really what we
see and if if Doge starts to really get
popular support this whole I think you
guys talked about this last week that
the more that FDR style Trump and people
get popular support it's going to become
a more and more isolating lonely place
in two years to still be like you know
California Gavin everyone saying don't
worry we're going to protect you against
these people if if they're doing things
that are popular to still saying you're
protecting against them I think won't
fly well that's a a great jump off point
because Gavin does seem and Karen bass
seem like their careers are ending and
they're in the last stages of trying to
maybe get a little bit more pragmatic
based is the word people might use for
that just being super candid but let's
get let's get into a little bit of an
update here about the absolute tragedy
occurring in Los Angeles the death toll
is now at 25 uh ,000 structures have
been destroyed it's mostly people's
homes it's 40,000 Acres that's 60 square
miles I think San Francisco is 7 by S
miles right so this is a lot of uh space
it's bigger than all of San Francisco
the Palisades and eaten fires are still
burning and as of Wednesday 80,000
people were under evacuation
orders couple of our friends lost their
homes and uh but they survived but the
story of losing everything are just
tragic every
memory all your personal documents
photos art whatever that you've
collected over a lifetime I just had two
conversations with people and they were
just in shock the estimates right now of
damage are between 135 billion and $150
billion this is some of the most
expensive real estate on the planet it's
10 times more costly than any other
wildfire in history according to reports
uh you might remember the campfire near
Paradise California that's about what 3
hours North of San Francisco Northeast
that one was 12.5 billion just to level
set it
uh and now people are talking about and
we'll talk about here today what the
recovery and rebuild effort might look
like California leadership disad across
the
board Gavin I just
disad Gavin new have you had traffic to
dad.com with all of this yeah right now
dad.com is going to be red director to
Gavin or Karen bass I don't know which
one is more disgraceful I mean it's it's
an incredible troll that you just
redirected every week to whoever you're
mad is that
yeah who would be more disgraceful in
this situation Gavin or Karen bass I
think it's got to be k for just being
out of the country I think I think it
would be quite funny if every week you
actually gave an award redirected the
website to the I give it to this week
and before that it was Jake Paul for
that Tyson fight and the
disad but it's the stakes have gone up
Gavin is now doing executive orders one
of them is to make it illegal to lobal
offers to impacted homeowners for the
next three months I don't know what the
point of that is and the other one is to
eliminate the coastal acts review of
permits for the the
houses that are along PCH I
suppose and he wants
to extend key price gouging protections
quote to help make rebuilding more
affordable gouging is defined as raising
the rent or price of other goods and
services more than 10% from the last
marketed
price but it could be as little as 5%
it's just not clear and then LA mayor
bass created a snitch hotline to report
on any kind of price gouging and rents
which we've started to see people are
now naming and shaming Zillow and red
fin listings where they you can see the
previous history of what they were
asking for for a home or for rent and
obviously the free market is
making rental homes double in price
freeberg we talked a bunch about this
and I know Pinkus you've got we had I
don't know if you're comfortable talking
about it but we had a whole conversation
about your getting dragged by the
coastal
Commission in Northern California
freeberg maybe kick us off here on what
your thoughts are on rebuilding this
area how this will happen especially
with what we brought up last week and I
think when a bit viral is your sort of
talk about putting your thumb on the
scale with insurance I mean this is I
think one of the concerning things here
is
the free market not being allowed to
progress previously with insurance and
then now with the rebuild well
California's got at this point price
controls or a mechanism for
controlling the change in price on
insurance on Housing Services and now
they've got this non-solicitation
rule all three I think are very
challenging to I think an appropriate
Market recovery look the insurance issue
is a longer one if you guys want we
could talk about that I've got a couple
notes I can bring up on the history of
how we got to this point but I think
it's going to be the one of the biggest
burdens going forward and it could
actually lead to a pretty significant
effect in long-term housing prices in
California because of the way that the
insurance Market is structured and
regulated in
California but if you want we can talk
about that or up or down what do you
think ultimately you know tldr like do
you think prices are going to go way up
here do you think this is going to take
five or 10 years to rebuild these homes
I mean we've never seen this many
structures go down at this price point
in a constrained area where just
construction is so expensive and hard so
I think the the governor did a good job
suspending the permitting requirements
for the coastal act for affected homes
and the squa review those are very
important I think
suspensions but he also put in place
this executive order for price gouging
and if you pull up the note Nick so he
basically said California penal code
section
396 which prohibits price gouging during
a declared state of emergency will now
extend indefinitely in this region and
in the language in that Penal Code it
says that businesses cannot raise the
price of essential goods and services by
more than 10% above their pre-emergency
price for a specified period and in this
case his executive order is in
definitely so in on an indefinite basis
you cannot raise the price of goods and
services which generally applies to
consumer goods like food and emergency
supplies but it also applies to building
materials and services related to
housing work so if you want to
attract Builders if you want to attract
contractors if you want to attract
electricians and plumbers to go to the
LA area you have to allow the market to
do its job if I'm a plumber operating in
Sacramento or in Phoenix and I'm like
man I could make some money if I go to
La you will see an influx of service
providers and an influx of goods to
support the rebuilding effort in
Southern California that's the way the
free market should work is there's an
opportunity in the market folks show up
they say great I can make money I'm
going to come here and do this work and
as more folks show up they begin to
compete on price and eventually the cost
kind of normalizes and you end up
finding what is now the new fair market
value between the bid and the ask the
people that are saying hey I'll do the
work they're the ask and hey I need
people to do work that's the bid and you
find a price but the benefit of that is
you increase the supply you increase the
supply of goods you increase the supply
of service providers of contractors
there is a home building dir right now
in the United States so this is an
amazing opportunity because they can now
move to LA build homes we can get a
rapid reconstruction effort underway
except the governor just said we can't
pay people 10% higher than what they
were getting paid
right before this happened on an
indefinite basis and then Karen bass
created a hotline you can go to La 311
and report people if they're trying to
charge too much and then the uh you know
the Stacey will come and investigate you
and determine that you're charging too
much I understand that there's a strong
moral imperative and incentive to say we
got to stop price gouging we don't want
people to get hurt but the second order
effect is you're actually hurting the
market and you're hurting the rebuild
effort because you're reducing the
incentive for folks to come in and fill
the void in the market that is necessary
for us to accelerate the development of
15,000 homes in a very short period of
time the alternative now is people are
going to be sitting around and I already
spoke to a couple friends I'm sure you
guys have that are like I try calling
Architects I try calling contractors
people that live in this area that have
been affected I cannot get anyone to
return my call there is not enough
service providers down there you're
going to end up waiting six seven years
to get your home rebuilt now what do you
do you own a a lot you don't have a home
to live in and then there's this other
thing where we can't take unol offers on
the home that was the other executive
order so if you want to pull that one up
the governor said it is illegal to make
an unsolicited offer on a piece of real
estate in one of these affected zip
codes I don't know what that happened in
Hawaii that makes the governor keep
referencing the Hawaii story as if you
know that there were people that were
taken advantage of and we need to
protect the citizens of LA but I'm
pretty sure that having an increase in
the number of offers coming in for Real
Estate
increases maret increases buy behavior
and that will ultimately
drive and that will ultimately make it
easier by having more liquidity for some
of these folks who owned burn down lots
to be able to sell their lot take their
insurance check move to another
neighborhood and go somewhere else
because they're going to have to
otherwise wait six or seven years to
build a
home yeah I think you're a little bit
off the deep end with some of this stuff
because I think you're not being totally
fair in representing what this EO says
and that's coming from me I mean I am
not a Nome fan okay and I think he is
completely and totally
incompetent but I'll just take the other
side of this which is that I read the EO
and I actually think it's somewhat
reasonable and I didn't connect the dots
with the EO and the real estate market
and the reason is that if you read all
of what he said the EO was hypers
specific to unsolicited offers to a very
specific handful of zip codes and it was
time boxed for three months so he said
making any unsolicited offer to an owner
of real estate property located in the
areas encompassed by and he names a
bunch of zip go I think there was like
one two there's like 12 or 13 of them
okay so unsolicited okay yep to to
acquire any interest in real property
for an amount less than the fair market
value of the
property on January 6th so before the
fire started and before the home bur
down and he said that's prohibited for
three months that's it for three months
and the reason I think he said that is
that if you just scope out a little bit
just from this moment in Los Angeles the
problem is that after natural disasters
there is a spike in fraudulent
activities and there are people that try
to take advantage of that situation to
make money so for example after
hurricanes we saw this in Florida people
poses contractors they come in and they
offer inflated prices they offer poor
quality of work and especially when you
sort of deregulate for that moment where
there's less checks there's less folks
involved because you're trying to speed
up the process you can have a bunch of
pressure tactics that work against the
best interests of the person trying to
build on the Wildfire side there was
this crazy thing Nick I'll s you the
link from KTLA that about these folks
called fire Chasers which are
essentially like you know Wildfire
scammers they're ambulance Chasers but
during fir okay so so so my point is
yeah I don't disagree with his
incompetence okay and I think he is
totally out of touch I think there's a
broken cartel that runs the state that's
going to drive this state into just
complete disrepair he was
NE already you can't say a state that
has $322 billion budget is already
bankrupt it's it's teetering on a path
where we won't be able to return and we
can debate that but my point is I just
think despite all of this he's grossly
negligent Karen bass is grossly
negligent the California cartel is
breaking this state but on this specific
narrow thing I kind of will give him his
flowers I think it was like a decent
smart good thing it's narrowly focused
there's a specific window here that's
time boxed so that the worst behaviors
of other people are roughly managed and
mitigated until we can figure out a
better answer you're saying that
unsolicited offers on real estate can
drive fraud what you talked about if
there is a person that is this does not
prevent Somebody by let's talk about
Services separately because he has a
separate EO on services this does not
prevent anybody whose house burned down
from listing his lot you could sell it
for a dollar that's right so it's not
it's I think it's it's not right and
it's inaccurate to say that this is
perturbing and distorting the free
market the idea that you cannot sell
isn't what is in this CEO the idea is
some person shows up out of the blue and
applies a pressure tactic to you when
you're in a very stressful situation
trying to deal with your insurance
brokers trying to figure out where your
kids are going to go to school they're
just making an offer what's the pressure
tactic it's why can't someone make an
offer on your home you want people to B
up David David here's what's going to
happen there are people that in the
middle of all of this stress are trying
to figure out how much money they can
get somebody shows up and underbids what
the true price Discovery could be in a
few months from now you don't know
whether you have to still pay back your
mortgage there will be people it will be
nonzero that will make a mistake and I
think that it's good to try to stop that
it doesn't absorb him from his
incompetence but this I think was
reasonably good what about the services
piece jamat the fact that you can't
increase pricing on goods and services
by more than 10% for an indefinite
period don't you think that that creates
a disincentive for service providers to
come into the state to come and address
the obviously it does yeah this Grand
ideal of the free market will solve
everything isn't necessarily always true
it's great in theory it reads well in a
textbook but real life is messy right
now we are in the messy part and we are
in the most critical part where the
abuses will be the highest I suspect
that in 6 months and 9 months and 12
months the free market will sort all of
these things out so if there's a
governor who can Implement some checks
and balances to protect these folks who
are probably totally dazed like for
example we know some of our friends I've
spoken to them over the last few days
I've spoken to their
wives
H I'll say I'll say it in in a horrible
way one person said this to me and I'll
just just quote him the amount of people
that have reached out to me if you had
asked me two weeks ago why would so many
people reach out with condolences I
would have thought that one of my
children had died that's what he said to
me and it completely struck me with it's
not on that same level but the amount of
emotional turmoil that these families
are going through probably approaches
that I don't think many of those people
are in a condition to make make good
decisions right now so I almost think a
cooling off period actually benefits
everybody it can allow the free market
to work in a few months from now we're
only talking 90 days no no the uh the
services thing is indefinite that's
that's what I think is a little bit
frustrating let me bring Mark in here
Mark you heard both sides of this
debate if you had a lot in the Pacific
Palisades that burned down and people
started making unsolicited offer listen
you're sophisticated I've known you for
20 plus years uh you're very
sophisticated
obviously but do you think that's a
reasonable thing to do to put a
moratorium on people making these low
bit offers and then we'll get to the
construction piece second but you know
what you offers unsolicited offers yes
unsolicited offers yeah what do what do
you think of that I think what what
bothers me about it there's a
presumption and and maybe chim's right
in it you're getting me to think about
it a little more than I was but but I'm
pretty much where freeberg is that we're
we're kind of treating these people like
children cuz we're what we're saying is
that they're not capable of making good
decisions so we need to protect them
from themselves and we're saying so we
don't want you to know that somebody is
willing to pay X dollar for your
property because you might take it and
you might regret later that you took
that is kind of what chamath is saying
no in a in a very narrow window where
you may not have the best and clearest
ability to make the best decision for
you because you're dealing with so many
other crazy issues in your life and you
could still say no you could say no but
you're presuming there's there's one
side that bothers me that feels like
what we've had from the Democratic party
forever which is that this this big wise
Overlord that's going to protect us from
our selves from our worst natures and
then on the other hand you're bringing
up something chat that I I hadn't
thought about that I'm just thinking
more about now which is well maybe
people could be taken advantage of at
the
margin because they're in they feel like
they're in a dire position but but if
they think they're in a dire position
they might really be in a dire position
so they might really well for example
let's just say that you haven't heard
back from the banks that own your
mortgage about whether there's going to
be a moratorium on mortgage payments
and so now you're trying to juggle
paying for an extra rental and this
house while you're trying to figure out
where to put your kids and somebody
shows up and says hey I will buy this
from you I think that there are a lot of
people who would otherwise be able to
make a much more rational decision who
may make a panic decision in that moment
and I think that if you give people a
90-day cooling off period I think it at
least shines a light on whether all of
this governmental and other
infrastructure can actually do something
for these people I do think that there
is a moment at which you can't govern
these things and all I'm suggesting is a
very narrow window of time where
people's feelings of just like
desperation are at their highest I think
that this is a decent thing to do you
know there is some precedent for the
state doing stuff like this you know in
Most states there is a cooling off
period with marriages and divorces you
you have to wait 3 Days To to file
either way to get married or to get
divorced let's talk about the
construction process here freeberg
because I think that's the most
important one because we're going to
rebuild if you don't pay a premium to
get somebody to leave another Market to
come to this one which is what's going
to be required there are simply not
enough construction people in any state
that's right so now you're competing
with another state that's right this
immediately triggered uh the debate and
D I say courage that Travis had around
this issue with surge pricing for Uber
lift and side car and a bunch of other
folks who were kind of virtue signaling
were like we don't ever want to do
search pricing therefore there were
never cars on the road on Friday and
Saturday nights when people needed them
or
during you know inclement weather
snowstorms
or on New Year's Eve and he said if you
want to increase Supply We Believe Uber
should have availability lift took a
different decision we're GNA have no
search pricing and they just simply
weren't available so maybe
what do you think about that piece
Pinkus you
think that the free market and people
should be able to say you know what I'll
pay you time and a half to come here
I'll pay you double time to work
Saturday and Sundays I'll get a couple
of RVs put them in the back if you want
to have some folks live on the
construction site and if you hit these
dates I'll pay you a bonus for hitting
it doesn't seem like any of that would
be wrong to me for somebody who had the
ability to pay an incentive for somebody
to move from another state would be out
of line here what are your thoughts on
that I agree I mean I'm I'm pretty much
just a free market believer and so I
think other than guardrails like chamat
saying and maybe I like the idea of
cooling off periods it kind of makes
sense but outside of that when it comes
to service providers yeah you have the
opposite problem right now which is like
you're saying you need to incentivize a
huge construction for
to come to LA and the cost for them to
get there to find housing themselves is
going to be even higher or the amount of
distance they're going to have to travel
every day so I think I think this could
have real unintended consequences and
just stop the just stop the wheels from
turning on rebuilding all these homes
which just make it way more complex so I
agree J final thoughts on the rebuild
and the free market in that regard yeah
I think this is where the government
ineptitude is at its
worst I think that we need to dismantle
this regulatory state that makes doing
the right thing impossible so
specifically the thing that Nome did was
essentially create
a Time expectation on when things will
get permitted and I think he said it was
like six months the problem is like this
is what just goes to show you how insane
the state has become even if you get a
permit within 6 months and this is where
I do agree with freeberg like getting
service people in and being able to
build something to spec safely is going
to take three four five six years and
it's going to be insane and the example
of the complete incompetence of the
California state government is if you
contrast and compare this with how the
state was able to respond in the North
Bridge earthquake and the crazy thing
which I thought was incredible was after
the 1994 Northridge Earthquake they
rebuilt I 10 right which is like that is
like a crazy
artery in 66 days guys they rebuilt it
not they permitted it not that they were
trying to get the California Coastal
commission to app on it not a Sierra
Club lawsuit about the Upper Land grous
they rebuilt it so you actually know
what's possible in California if if
Tradesmen are allowed to go to work yeah
they can build incredibly complicated
things with safety with speed this is
where Nome I don't think understands how
the real Market works because if you
looked at that example the real question
you should be asking is well what has
changed well Technology's gotten way
better since then the people are more
skilled there are more people to be able
to do more of these jobs and so why does
it only take six months to just get the
permit when in 120 days you could just
rebuild an entire Highway similarly why
aren't we saying that we expect these
homes built in the next three years get
these kids back in their homes and back
in school you know what they did on that
they offered a
$200,000 per day early build bonus on
that program back then so they basically
the the state declared we need this
freeway reopened and here's the date it
was like 144 days and they're like
you'll get a $200,000 bonus for every
day under 144 that you deliver it soever
w show me an incentive I'll show you an
outcome exactly the really interesting
thing here is there are regulations that
this is a unique
opportunity to put in place Nick if you
can pull it up there was a home that
wasn't burned in the Pacific Palisades
and the architect talked about some of
the design decisions
there you know have having Stone scaping
around your home gravel Etc and using
these new materials and not having
overhangs uh which and then having vents
into your uh addict which is what a lot
of homes have and the Embers get into
the addict there's an overhang and
they're not using and they're they're
all wood built you know none of this is
concrete none of it's brick California
is all wood and so they probably should
add some regulations about building
things that are fireproof because if you
had a 100 homes that were all fireproof
and built to withstand this that would
act as a natural break and if you didn't
have as much vegetation so there's
probably a series of things that should
be added here in terms of regulations
while you're getting rid of some of the
ones that are slowing you down right um
but let's pivot over to oh and then
finally like allowing people to park
their mobile homes in these places to
have housing for construction to your
point mark would be super critical and
they block that kind of stuff so when
you need temporary housing in California
you can't do it
by the way I want to I want to hear what
freeberg has to say about insurance but
let me connect the dots between what you
said and what he's about to say there
are three images I just want to show you
guys and to Bubble this up for everybody
that isn't necessarily living in
California and is consumed with what all
of this means there's a bigger Trend
across the country that I think is just
worth putting out there so Nick do you
want to just show the first chart from
FEMA so this is basically a graph
per locality all over the United States
where FEMA tries to assess the disaster
risk for living in a given area and what
you see here is that there's some risk
in living on the Eastern Seaboard and
there's a lot of risk in it's growing
for living on the western Seaboard and
the two most complicated states that
have to deal with this are clearly
Florida and
California so that's one which is this
is a problem that isn't just focused on
this one little area so then if you
double click a little bit further
there's a company called core logic they
publish a lot of real estate data here's
a chart about the western United States
that just double clicks into Wildfire
risk and I was shocked when I saw this
this is first of all most of California
this is like Nevada this is Arizona this
is parts of Texas this is Washington I
didn't even know the fire risk went up
that high but this is essentially a lot
of the western United States and then
the last chart goes through and it
actually does core logic does an
assessment of the value at risk so in
California it's three4 of a trillion
dollars that are at about 1.26 million
homes that are at moderate or great risk
of fires in Colorado it's about 141
billion in Texas it's 88 billion in
Oregon it's 45 billion in Arizona 36
billion the point is that everything you
said
Jason now needs to get Scaled out
meaning there needs to be a national
level conversation this can't be a bunch
of city planners making code and making
laws in a little municipality yeah
because that problem what that shows you
is we have a multi-trillion doll risk to
a lot of people in the Western United
States specifically around this issue
that has to get dealt with by code all
right really interesting in New York
finally New York has put into place
congestion pricing I've been waiting for
this my entire life here's a math this
went into effect January 5th this
congestion pricing concept exists in
London as everybody probably
knows basically if you're below Central
Park which is six stage straight in
Manhattan and you enter between 5:00
a.m. and 900 p.m. you're going to get
you know on your easy pass a charge of
but $9 cheaper than a bacon egg and
cheese in Manhattan these days if you're
going clubbing in Manhattan between 9:00
p.m. and 5:00 a.m. it's just like two
bucks it's going to increase to $12 in
2028 and $15 in 2031 trucks pay more
taxes pay less the results have been
awesome weight times to get on the
island are down 50% across the board
Lincoln Tunnel down 46% Holland Tunnel
down 63% Williamsburg Bridge down 35%
it's just an awesome effort when I live
there man as a resident the traffic was
nuts you can have emergency services
move a lot faster you get rid of noise
pollution you obviously get rid of air
quality pollution for ice engines uh
it's great for cabs great for
pedestrians and great for bike riders
the only people really complaining are
selfish and entitled people who Drive
their cars into Manhattan that's at
least my position on it opponents are
saying it's a money grab for the transit
authority because the money from this
goes to make public transportation
better what do you think Mark you in
favor of
this yeah I think more generally I feel
like since the pandemic what's been on
my mind a lot living still in San
Francisco I wanted to start a social
network called still here uh it's like
oh you still live here me too some way
for us to like come out of our houses
and notice that you're here and I'm here
but we never leave our homes I walk
around this city at my own risk and I
like the cities I feel like cities have
lost the point like they've lost the
plot like why we've kind of we still
live in cities or value them but I feel
like we have to go back to First
principles and think like why did we
move to cities in the first place and
what was the value supposed to be and is
that still the deal we're getting or is
there it have to be a new deal because
we used to live in a city because it was
economic we were closer to our job and
then we lived in a city because there
was a high density of things that we
wanted cultural people restaurants and
the best cities really were the ones
that are fun to walk around and then we
got to a point where it's not safe or
clean to walk around you don't work in
the city anymore and San Francisco
started to feel like this gigantic like
retirement community it's just all these
people who still live here because their
kids are in school maybe or they grew up
here you know a lot of our friends left
went to Austin and other places and we
started I I don't know about chamat but
I think or Dave but I think our family
has a conversation probably twice a year
of should we move why haven't we moved
what's wrong with us and so there's this
questioning going on around cities and I
think it's a good question and I think
cities need to innovate aggressively to
give to be better they have to compete
with the other options again they have
to make it fun to be there fun to work
there I think it's great that Daniel
lurry is mayor of San Francisco and he's
putting smart people around him and
they're trying to rethink first some of
attacking these core problems but also
how do we make San Francisco fun again
so I love things like congestion pricing
I think now is the time to try every new
innovation that you ever thought of and
see what sticks and and figure out like
how do you take this this tax not
literally I mean New York has a big tax
but this tax on all of us whether it is
that you can't walk across this city
that you don't feel safe or that that
the the good side of it being fun to be
in you know is that the the deal is off
and so I think you know and I also what
I'm hoping Daniel lurry does and other
smart Mayors is that they Benchmark and
they say who's doing it really well
around the world whether it's dealing
with homelessness or things like
congestion
pricing who's who's innovating and doing
it well and why aren't we doing it here
I mean I think you got to run these you
got to reinvent these cities and you
know sorry to sound cliche but I think
you got to kind of take a startup
mentality and say you're not going to
live on your incumbency anymore you've
got
to reinvent this and we can't make
companies come back to work you know
come back to the office I mean the
companies can make their employees but
it'd be really nice if the employees
wanted to be there um you know and you
can't make people live in California so
I'm in favor yeah chamath any thoughts
on Mark's point about making cities fun
again and joyful again sounds like a
pretty pretty good
platform I mean I think he's right um
San Francisco sucks it's trash they
never go there yeah it's terrible and
the reason that you don't like to go
there is it's dirty it's disgusting
there's crime there's
Grime everything just sucks there yeah
freeberg your thoughts uh
on the Gotham City that did he visit you
in the Dave did chat ever come to the
Presidio I have come to your office I've
come to Dave's office I've come to I've
gone to Peter's office there but what I
do is I I don't even go through the city
I go all the way around I drive all
through the East Bay up through Berkeley
and I come I'm just kidding no no no I
just think that the city is very poorly
managed and just the quality of many
cities are poorly managed and I think
that there's a common through line in
these poorly managed cities all the
things that you say there's no will to
do there's no will to keep crime at Bay
there's no will to make you know usable
spaces for people there's no will to
invest in the Arts so what do you expect
right there's more money collected by
these cities but there's just just more
total grift corruption and waste I
really like that you got to this will
point because whether we come back to
the coastal commission or not or talk
about California or San Francisco I
don't think it's really about the red
tape I think it's about the willpower of
of the people who are running the tape
and reading the tape you're 100% right
did you see this thing I have to read
this to you because this is really
stunning I sorry Mark keep going but I
you're still th% right you know because
sure okay maybe maybe in one case Gavin
can override the coastal commission but
it doesn't matter if you cut their red
tape by 90% as long as there's any tape
that they can use the people running
both the St there and the people on the
board have stated on their website that
their policy is managed retreat they
drew a new map of the California
coastline if that's their intention
they're going to look for anything they
can to to stop and obstruct you so it's
it's really not like their hands are
tied because there's so much permitting
you're you're right they' made a
decision and the decision in California
and San Francisco specifically was that
we're going to cater to fentol dealers
and junkies and that those people were
going to get a stipend a hotel room and
be allowed to take a super drug on the
streets thousands of people with no
recourse listen I'm pro drug okay here's
I sent you guys a I sentation but not
for fentol and meth these things are
super drugs yeah let's make it less
about San Francisco let's talk about
middle Ohio and let's talk about Ender
Palmer lucky did this really awesome
shout up really awesome interview Nick I
just sent you the link to it he's
building a new Ohio plant but the
question and answer from the interviewer
is exactly what pink has talked about
which is will the interview
says was this the only state that could
guarantee that timeline that you needed
and here's Palmer's answer was this the
only state that could guarantee that
timeline I think that they were the
state that gave us the best shot of
hitting that timeline look we've really
Eng well with jobs Ohio with a lot of
the politicians here uh not just at the
state level but the local level you know
like you said we're hiring 4,000 people
here in direct jobs a lot more jobs than
that in a direct or sorry an indirect
capacity it's the largest single job
creation event in Ohio history it was a
state that told us we have the workforce
we have a million people who are capable
of working in this facility within a
45-minute drive we're willing to work
with you on higher education to help
train people so they can come in and
they can work with you uh our customer
in the the United Air for United States
Air Force obviously it's a huge presence
here in the form of right Patterson Air
Force Base so really all the stars align
to make Ohio a great place for us to do
it and to do it fast and speaking
candidly as someone who is from
California there's some states that are
really good at uh pushing you out and
slowing you down and there's others that
are great at pulling you in and speeding
you up and that's what Ohio was
fantastic yeah states are competing for
elite
companies and there's a willpower that's
that there's an
intention and you know that if they want
to make it happen they'll make it happen
just like Gavin just did right you Gavin
could have theoretically I don't know
signed an executive order to override
the coastal Commission on lot even his
diesel plant like I don't know why he
didn't just force that through but if we
had diesel maybe there'd be more water
to fight the fire now so I think the
important thing is to note that cities
have a right to be what they want to
be you guys might find this surprising
but I'm not necessarily of the belief
that every city should necessarily cater
to progress and acceleration and
enterpris and
industrialization look when you go to
Pino every summer chth you would
probably you know stop going and would
be disappointed if you found out that
they were building a giant glass tower
apartment complex and a giant office
building right by the Portofino Port
like that's just not the character of
what that City wants to be and I do
remember when I first moved to San
Francisco 25 years ago it was it felt
like a smaller European like City it
wasn't overrun with technology companies
at the time and it was a the charm and
the quaint nature and the smaller
buildings of San Francisco that made it
a beautiful fantastic town I think that
part of the challenge of San Francisco
has been this diametrically kind of
opposed Viewpoint of progress from the
technology sector and a desire to keep
San Francisco a small City by the bay
and that that frustration has manifested
with a lot of kind of ugliness over the
the last couple decades in addition to
obviously all the silly stupid policies
that just make no sense whatsoever
they're rooted in people thinking that
this is a good solution in the short
term but it creates extraordinary damage
and harm in the long term separate but I
do think that cities have a right to be
what they want to be and I think that
Dave I think that's just I just want to
interject as a fellow San Franciscan for
a long time um just as long is that
that's the normal tension that's been
here all along and that kind of makes
the city culture great and there's you
want to have this
creative uh Melting Pot here but there's
this other side that I think has come
into play in the last 15 20 years or I
don't 10 15 years which is this
progressivism side which we saw Chessa
you know with and I think it's it's
different virus that's the ugly
silliness I meant I was saying but like
let's put that aside let's put San
Francisco aside I do think that a city
can and should be what it wants to be
does it want to attract and build in
Industry does it want to attract and
build enterprising companies or does it
want to be a small quain town does it
want to stay you know with no h that's a
false trade-off the problem is that
people in government at every level
sells the former doesn't doesn't
actually even give them that nor the
ladder what they give them is a
dysfunctional hellscape instead well
Cino doesn't do that right because it
doesn't make those promises it's not
asking to elect people that are trying
to do it not every City's making that
though why are we lying to everybody and
why are people falling for these lies
over and over and over again there's
there's a moral Clarity in telling the
truth bino doesn't try to do that but I
don't think the point is you're saying
that the cities that that promise that
and don't deliver that your San
Francisco promises it right London
promises it New York promises it these
things are chaotic messes mhm and it's
not the trade-off of oh well Parris has
found a way to stay quaint that was
never on the ballot some person comes up
and says I'm going to spend x billion
dollars a year then another person shows
up is is actually I'm going to spend it
a totally different way they both claim
to have measurements of how it's going
to be great and my point is none of them
are rooted in the real world nobody
knows how to actually run a business all
the money gets wasted and nothing
happens it neither stays quaint nor does
it
Advance if you were uh living in Los
Angeles you had the opportunity to have
Rick Caruso who built so many
amazing experiences and uh shops for the
citizens there and you picked Karen bass
I looked on her Wikipedia page looking
for any kind of operational position she
ever felt it's you want to read her
resume it's tragic I mean just it's
tragic she I would like I said last week
not send her to get my lunch because you
know that order would be totally screwed
up she is so dis so unqualified and you
had this perfect person Rick Caruso who
literally you can't script this he built
the Pacific Palisades
Village when the days before there was
going to be a fire do you know what he
did he hired water trucks to park on
those streets you can find the picture
Nick pull it up and he hired
firefighters and people to protect the
village that he
built Karen bass was in Ghana partying
taking meetings I don't know what the
connection between Los Angeles and their
citizens and what they need to get done
and Ghana after she promised she would
not do this Global you know uh Globe
trotting which she apparently has a
track record of
doing she left and stayed there knowing
this was all coming Rick ruso who you
didn't vote for
mayor he did the right thing vote these
people out recall Karen bass you can do
it we recall Chessa Boudin you remember
on this show David Sachs is a a
republican entrepreneur venture
capitalist good friend of mine I'll
introduce you guys if you haven't met
him he started a recall chesa Boudin
movement I hired a journalist to cover
the victims of crime in San Francisco
Chessa Boudin was out in 18 months you
can recall these people they're
unqualified take action start a recall
they'll tell you oh it's not a good
thing for continuity whatever these
people are not qualified they are not
thinking in your best interest you have
no choice citizens of Los Angeles but to
get these people out immediately every
day they stay in office they are going
to cause more damage to your family your
property and your city we call them now
didn't James Woods post a petition on
change.org that I saw on Twitter it was
already I signed it though I don't live
there and I think it was already over
like 90,000 you know names I mean you
you you have power the people of
California don't understand how much
power they have when Gavin new I just
told people on Twitter jamou every time
Gavin tweets or Karen best Tweets just
reply with the word resign hundreds of
people are doing it now shame these
people into resigning it's a very mature
way for you to affect you you know what
it worked in Brooklyn shame worked I
don't know why people think they have no
power you can literally just go in there
and do things and one of the things you
can do is recall them okay do we have
anything else except your pical left on
the docket all right Tik tok's future is
in question right now the ban is about
to happen unless the pairing company
bite dance divest by January 19th which
is this Sunday Tik Tok will be banned in
America Google and apple are going to be
forced to remove Tik Tok from their app
stores and Oracle Tik tok's cloud
provider has to stop providing hosting
services and cut ties assuming bite
dance doesn't come up with a last minute
deal tick Talk's only hope is the
Supreme Court blocking the law what do
you think Mark do you think it's Chinese
spyware do you think they should be
forced to divest what do you think their
repercussions will be here's what's so
hard for me about this on the one hand
part of it seems so obvious from a both
not just National Security point of view
but also just fairness like it's insane
if you think about it that there's a
Chinese company that's arguing in court
for protections under our Constitution
and freedom of speech when none of our
companies have those kinds of Rights in
China much less the right to even
operate there if they're not majority
controlled or in line like you guys
talked about with censorship or whatever
else so on the one hand it seems like a
no-brainer to me that on this case but
what you're starting to see come up in
the last couple days I'm even hearing it
from one of my daughters who's a major
Tik tocker is the law of unintended
consequences here is that we could see
this band especially if they don't get
to a deal with somebody and then the 170
million Americans many younger Americans
who rely on this all a sudden feel like
this is censoring them and it's taking
away their freedom of expression
question and it could backfire in a lot
of ways and we're already seeing memes
where they're going on to these other
apps like there's this chines book red
book which is even worse right I think
that one is owned by the Chinese
government and so we're driving them
there and so so I'm the best outcome I
think would be forced to divest and sell
to another American company but if that
doesn't happen I I'm kind of nervous
about a a real backlash I'm delighted
jamath that our kids are gonna go out
and play and have friendships and stop
scrolling on T talk what you describe
sound sounds awesome I literally get on
their iPads and phones when I sometimes
allow them to have phones and just
delete the app and then they go get it
back of course of course K are right
around it what do you think Cham what do
you think's GNA happen here I mentioned
this
to president Trump and I and I really
think this is true the reason why there
was so much bipartisan support for the
bill as it worked through Congress is
because I think that they were briefed
on just how severe the security
violations of this app are because I
don't think we've seen anything in
modern history that is that that is this
controversial yet be so almost unanimous
yeah so I think that that's an important
data point there is something happening
in the app that they've been briefed
on that makes them take this posture
and when I listened to the Supreme Court
arguments I didn't hear a very
compelling reason why this ban should be
overturned so I do agree with Mark that
we have to find a suitable
home and I think that we'll probably
find one and I think that it probably
happens under the Trump
presidency and whoever gets their hands
on it gets their hands on an incredible
asset that they will be able to buy
extremely cheaply because there is no
way that is a fair market value here
deal for that asset because whoever is
the buyer is in the total cat bird seat
and in order to get a deal done with the
federal government I think you're just
going to get a basically like a buy at
now price that's very cheap the other
thing that I'll say though on a totally
separate tangent so when I started
hunting around Tik tok's realtime
recommendation algorithm was open source
the learning method yep Nick do you want
to just throw it up here it's called
monolith this is an incredible paper the
cleverness of what these guys have built
cannot be
underestimated and what's incredible is
what they describe in this paper which I
think frankly a lot of social apps would
benefit from
understanding is exactly how they've
built it to essentially not take this
more monolithic training approach for
recommendations but how do you do it in
real time how do you make it
collisionless it's
incredible this paper is a tour to force
and it just makes me realize that
despite the
political maneuvering of this hot potato
there are some folks that have been
working in that app or in you know the
parent company that are truly
technically talented and it's a it's a
bit of a shame that they're going to get
sort of throw the baby out with the bath
water so to speak so people should know
that there's some technological
innovations inside of bike dance and Tik
Tok that are just truly amazing feats of
computer science this is an example it
doesn't though change the fact that I
think that enough of Congress and the
rest of the security apparatus know that
this is a mechanism to spy I think you
both nailed it isn't China saying though
that they're going to if this does get
divested they're going to keep either
bite dance or Chinese government saying
we're not going to give over the
algorithm or are you saying it's open
source it doesn't matter well this was
an example of just sort of like
describing the methodology it's not
functionally open source yet but I think
that open sourcing it doesn't solve the
problem and the reason is so let's just
say that you're Pegasus was able to
reverse engineer or build penetration
attacks into WhatsApp that were
imperceptible to everybody until it
happened to Jeff Bezos to other people
right where you get these state
sponsored attacks on your
phone and all of a sudden you're dealing
with this attack Vector that then you
call the FBI and they take your phone
and they help you deal with it's
happened to a bunch of people that's
happened to me
twice so
the fact that these things can happen
and then the attack vectors get
incrementally more and more
sophisticated it used to be that there
was a PDF payload then there can just be
an image payload now it's any payload
right and you don't even have to click
to open it and all of a sudden they just
roots your phone so these are extremely
sophisticated mechanisms that are
enabled by a very few very talented
people talented I'll put in
quotes but when those talented people
work on the wrong side you have to act
so open sourcing it won't solve this
these these exploits are known to a few
and I think that if it's known to the
NSA this is probably what was disclosed
to folks under confidentiality that
caused them to get to this conclusion I
think people just need to wake up and
realize the Chinese government does not
have Americans best interest at hard I
mean the there there is no concept of
reciprocity as you mentioned Mark that's
the number one reason to do this number
two what you pointed out your mouth with
security and if you think about the two
biggest imports from China right now
it's Fentanyl and Tik Tock here's what I
will say want to make us addicted they
want to impact our society they want to
divide us this is an a massive scops
that's going on it is a scops and it is
a spyware and it's been proven they
spied on journalists these are Bad
actors it has to go I was super excited
when I saw that there was the potential
that X would take over Tik Tok and the
reason I say that is I do think that if
you can take the video content of Tik
Tok and the graph of
creators but have a different app and a
different substrate be the delivery
mechanism where you know that it's much
safer and it's governed by an American
that to me would be the compromise so I
think the app should go away but if you
can somehow give creators a path to sort
of like restart their content creating
capabilities on X I think that that's
actually a pretty good one you guys
notice in the app freeberg that the left
hand tab um because you have following
shop and for you they added a leftand
tab all the way over that stem and it's
just science technology engineering and
math content I've not noticed that yeah
take a look I don't know if it's just
mine and they're microt targeting me
because they know I'm such a fan of stem
but I think it's for everybody any
thoughts uh Dave as we wrap on the Tik
Tok seems like they're going to strike
deal Chuck Schumer today is calling for
a delay in the ban I'm sure by the time
this episode airs something will have
been worked out to create some space for
them to get a deal done but I think they
want to get a deal done and keep Tick
Tock active in the US seems like both
the Dems and the Republicans are pushing
for it so this kind of also leads to
what I think will
be the grand deal with China which I
think will happen in the first six
months of the Trump Administration I'm
obviously speculating but it feels like
there's going to be some workout here
China is like in a lot of economic
distress I don't know if you guys have
followed much on the stories of the
deflationary challenges that China is
dealing with Chinese bonds are trading
at a below 2% yield now which is kind of
unprecedented and there's this real
concern that China is in a very
significant economic deflationary spiral
so they're in a very weakened position
economically at the moment the United
States seems to be in a position of
strength and I would imagine just given
the rhetoric
that this Administration may try to work
out again some deal that's going to
provide access to the Chinese market in
exchange for the US minimizing the
Tariff effect on Chinese um importers to
the US so there could be I think
something you know that eases the the
tension with China and creates you know
Mutual economic value in the first six
months of the administration we'll see I
mean it's a great Point Trump is a great
negotiator it's probably his greatest
strength and he's great at saber
rattling and we're strong they're weak
right now a grand deal could be an
awesome outcome I think this was my one
of my this was my contrarian prediction
I think um oh no this was my stock this
was my stock prediction yeah this was
like my I picked the Chinese tech stocks
yeah same I I've been loading up on
Alibaba a couple Chinese names with the
same bet hey guys here's a chart for
you companies are not hiring as many
mbas this is a recent spike in in
unemployment among mbas from Top
Business Schools like Harvard MIT and
Stanford I'm not sure I think Pinkus did
you go to Harvard
FIA guilty guilty so and you've also
stopped working so you're represented
here on the chart yeah you still have a
job I think you still work what what are
your thoughts on on this are NB out of
Vogue are they opting out what's your
theory here well so yes I went there I I
would say that
that my all the learning that's helped
me in my career
started later after I got out my first
product management job was really when I
started learning things that are useful
to me today I think being there I
learned a lot about like how to sell to
Corporate America and some how do they
think kind of things and then I've gone
back to HBS for decades trying to
recruit from there and in the beginning
they would tell me the kids would when I
had support.com and it was going to go
public they said I'd have to be a vice
president and own 3% of the company to
take a job with a startup like you and
this was just before the company went
public there was a little bit of a
Renaissance period where some HBS people
were excited to join Zinga probably
because they thought it was going public
but they were a little more risk on at
that point and now
everyone's open to jobs my take is that
there's this fundamental imbalance that
people go and get an MBA because they're
drisking their career you go to HBS or
Stamford and you're guaranteed this High
salary and this kind of great job for
life so the reason to go there is to
take the risk off that's in fundamental
opposition to where we are in our
economy in my opinion today or where the
most interesting sectors are those kinds
of jobs have dried up and the kinds of
jobs that I think should be interesting
to mbas are more like go find a
ycombinator company and join a founding
team as the business person or whatever
and these people are smart and qualified
but there's this mismatch that they are
fundamentally risk averse and so they're
not so when it says they haven't found
jobs part of it is I think they're going
they're going to have to fall further or
this might happen so that a part of it
they have maybe debt or they have to pay
back this expensive degree but I think
that they've got to get to a point like
I was when I started my first company
preloader I happily had very little to
no opportunity cost because I had
torched my career by that point torched
my resume I was fired or asked to leave
every job and so there was kind of no
turning back so uh can you imagine being
Mark P's boss I mean that's almost as
hard as being trats
yeah I always say I'm a great team
player as long as I'm running the team
so right great quarterback yeah but yeah
so I had no opportunity cost when I
started my first company which looked
like it didn't have a chance in hell you
know of ever making it so you probably
thought so too then about my company but
so now the question is maybe what's
going to happen is we're g to get a new
equilibrium where these the
opportunities for these people start to
come down the guaranteed opportunities
and a good thing cons firms right they
all go to McKenzie Boston Consulting
Group whatever even I just the class I
taught on Monday at Stanford they said
everyone wants a job at meta or Google
and that's the get-rich quick place and
it's I don't even think that's
necessarily true anymore and they can't
get those jobs because those companies
are now trying to get rid of middle
management so those jobs have dried up
you know part of what's in this data
probably also is a lot of these people
aren't taking jobs they're not finding
jobs that meet this High expectation for
right pay and opportunity so I think
it's a I think it's a good thing it also
probably is going to reduce the demand
to go into these MBA programs because if
you're thinking well that's not going to
be my riskof trade and I'm I'm not going
to be guaranteed 100% so why go in the
first place and I would advise people
today you know to depending on what
industry I'm biased but I'd say go get a
product management job some where and
make enough that you can afford to live
on it and that's going to be the
beginning of Learning doing these chth
what what are these things called when
these NB graduate they raise a bunch of
money to go buy some real business SE
fun yeah that's that's not happening
anymore they yeah that was like the
thing none of them made money none of
them made money turns out these NBAs
don't know what they're doing oh yeah so
when they take over the business run by
a family and some matriarch or patriarch
for 50 years to get it to 25 million
there's that there's that one deal out
of Stanford GSB the guy founded assurion
which is like you know 10 B it's
billions that guy would have founded
that company outside of Stanford he
could have gone to timbuk 2.com
University disad State and he would have
been
fine that speaks that speaks to more
about the cleverness of that one
individual not the 99,000 other sh deals
that been let me say something that
builds on what Pinkus was saying which
is I think that this is a interesting
window into the future of AI in the
sense that I think what companies are
internalizing slowly that the first
place that AI disintermediate is
actually middle management you thought
that it was the customer support person
maybe you thought it was the engineer
maybe you thought it was the designer
maybe you thought it was the product
manager I think those are less true I
think it's the middle manager it's the
functionary that basically is acting as
as essentially
cartilage inside of this
organization has less and less to do in
a place where AI enabled systems are
making a lot of decisions on behalf of
businesses and if you take a step back
how did that evolve well it started
because of what I mentioned a couple
weeks ago what the software industrial
complex will really be known for after
it is dismantled and
gone is that it
created all of these really
dysfunctional or charts in a company
meaning when you are a system of record
that sells something let's make it up
hey I'm the best general ledger
software okay and a CEO says great
Implement that and then all of a sudden
it's like well you're going to need a
CFO okay but then the CFO comes to you
and says well you actually need ahead of
fpna ahead of this ahead of that ahead
of the other thing then the CEO says
okay then those people hire and what
happens is the software sprawl is really
what created those jobs somebody else
says here's a customer relationship
management thing okay great so then you
hire a CMO and a cro those people build
infrastructure so my premise about this
is if you look inside of any or chart of
any company you can map those jobs to
some clunky old piece of software that
was sold to them maybe it was 10 years
ago maybe it was 20 years ago but that's
why orgs are this bulky and now when you
have all of these new nextg businesses
that are ripping all of that software
out the middle management layers that
used to manage that software are no
longer necessary that's why you're not
hiring mbas and I think that this trend
is only going to grow so I don't think
that this is a commentary on the people
the people are probably quite smart but
I do think that this is a warning sign
that people should not go and pursue
these degrees because I think as P said
you're not taking the trade of least
volatility you're actually taking on a
lot more volatility than you probably
thought you shouldn't be taking on by
going to a place like Harvard or
Stanford freeberg any thoughts as we
wrap here about this NBA chart the
collapse of the MBA program could be the
beginning of the unwinding of the um
higher education
Market why s
more I think this is the easiest one to
discard first in an age of AI and
Automation and self-learning and I think
that I I mean I've been thinking a lot
about I've I've have young kids right so
my kid my oldest kid is seven years old
I had to think about that for a sec um
so many kids now and um isn't it great
by the way I go through this all I don't
know I have to go through I have to feel
like what's my kids birthday Jam has a
busload of children when you have when
you have I just had a fifth think five
and you're at four days no I have five I
can't I have to really think about all
the birthdays fourth on the way but yeah
I would say I I think a lot about
whether or not it makes sense for my
kids to go to undergrad and I think like
about going to classes as an undergrad I
certainly there's the social experience
and I I learned a lot in you know kind
of working at a lab when I was there and
doing other stuff but those were like on
the job experiences I do think that the
social experience and
practical experience can be gotten
outside of the college infrastructure
this Ed educational infrastructure oh I
I cannot tell you guys how much time I I
just had a great idea I just had the
best idea ever the Allin MBA let's start
our own NBA I don't think I think that's
the whole point is people should get
back to kind of an apprenticeship type
model or a self-learning model
everyone's got their own personal tutor
now that's what I think people aren't
realizing is anything you want to learn
with
have you guys heard about what Johnny I
has done with his kids I'm pretty sure
they skip college and they just went to
work directly with him and his design
firm exactly and like I'm taking him out
to lunch because I want to interview him
about it I think
exactly by the way your daughters and my
daughters want to start a podcast
together Pinkus do you know what they
want to name it oh no I don't I don't
know if I should say it they I don't
know I didn't hear the name I think Jam
daughters in on this as well I think it
was another friend's child who came up
with the name they wanted to call it the
nepo
Pod Jamal's got a couple kid I'm here
for it no I think freeberg nailed it on
this one because I just had arouche
Selvin who's the pm at Google doing deep
research on this week in startups
yesterday and this product is nuts and
they designed it to basically be one of
these like million doll or $5 million
reports you pay for from these
consulting firms that MBA is right and
it does a better job it's more accurate
it's done in 5 to 10 minutes this thing
fires off have you used deep research
yet
Mark no I keep hearing you talking about
it and I'm such an idiot about this
stuff it's on the desktop only you can't
use the mobile and then Gemini how to
use it and it's only and you have to pay
20 bucks for it and then grock 2.0 is
doing something similar when you put
your query in it decides like all the
second level queries that would be asked
then it checks its work so it's firing
off a spider that goes and crawls 150
pages in real time then it asks
questions about the data then it says
what's missing from this so all the
questions you would get from your
manager if you were working at Boston
Consultant Group where they tell some
young MBA hey you missed this you miss
this can you double check this can you
find double click on this it goes and
does those followup question questions
so and now you can do a Cron job where
you can say take my research and every
week do a update on it and fill in
information and tell me the differences
so instead of just buying a Boston
Consulting or Mackenzie or whatever
report you build it and then have it
auto and the Deep research is coming out
this it's going to automatically refresh
it in your Google Docs and then update
you on what's been
changed and so and grock is doing it as
well except grock has all the tweets so
when you grock now did you see now at
the top of the page it says and I think
it's only in the grock app uh the
dedicated app they just launched last
week it shows you all the tweets and it
shows you all the web pages that it
indexed for that query so this is like
putting somebody on a week-long research
project and like I said it takes between
5 and 10 minutes to do this and it costs
a massive amount of server capacity to
do these real time you know two 300
queries are occurring behind your one
it's nuts I don't know if you guys have
been using advanced voice on chat GPT
much or do you guys any the voice and So
lately anytime I kind of have come
across an interesting topic I end up
finding that I just talk to chat GPT for
like an hour or two and I'll be like in
my car like when I'm driving to work or
going to a meeting or I go for like a
walk down to the coffee shop I'm like
okay so tell me about like what happened
during the Ice Age with respect to how
quickly sea levels receded and I start
to gather and like it's it's basically
like your own personal tutor I finally
have a best friend
Mark and I think that basically you end
up seeing a future where if people are
put into almost like the real world
becomes the lab environment that is
created in a very short window and small
amount of space in a college environment
where you're like in some like
applied scape that applied scape
basically becomes the real world and
you've got your college in your ear
you've basically got your tutors your
educational experience your capabilities
that you're learning and you learn more
in real time and I think that that's
what AI is going to take us to which is
basically going to destroy much of the
value of higher education and I think
that this MBA piece is probably just the
first step of many that's going to
ultimately erode the value ofation did
you guys see that Fleshlight that can
actually be synced to a video you're
watching at CES that's pretty crazy no
can we go to the UFOs instead of sex
toys we get it show us the video show us
the
video it's also did you get one of
course he's about to show us from his
hidden folder I saw it on X it was like
a it was like a summary of like the top
10 things from CES and it was a
flashlight that that would gyate based
on the actual contortions in the videos
which one's guest rooms tonight I'm a
little nervous f interesting Pinkus you
you get to see two different things here
when AI comes up as a topic freeberg
finally has a best friend and chth
finally has a lover who will do exactly
what he tells it to it's absolutely
perfect so Mark lately we've been
talking we've been talking to all the
guests about UFOs and UAP welcome to
conspiracy you have a point of view on
UFO UAP phenomena I
do and I guess everyone's everyone else
say too so I won't be that weird an
outlier so first of all just say I don't
believe in uaps UFOs and I don't not
believe in them and I'm just curious
about it and I've I've had this theory
that something is going to happen that
we're going to break our current
understanding of physics theory and our
our physics laws and so I've been
looking for that moment and one of those
is around the uaps so I've been more and
more Curious and digging more and more
and I started working with a friend who
made the movie Icarus on the idea of
like a Netflix docu series I thought it
should be funny and have somebody like a
Larry David kind of character narrating
it but he said maybe maybe he came back
to me he he's making a documentary about
the fentol crisis and how it China
documented how China has dumped it here
and he said you've got to meet with me
and this guy I came while he was working
on that he was interviewing a former DOD
contractor who had worked for them for
decades and said you know I've got a lot
on fentol but I have this whole other
thing to show you about these uaps and
he he'll just tell you his claim his
claim so they came and met with me and
we had to meet outside and put our
phones in Fairway bags faay bags faay
bags so so uh it was a good setup if
nothing else and he said he claimed that
in doing running these War games for the
defense department it inadvertently was
summoning these uaps these drones and he
had tons and tons of video of it and
classified them I'm just telling you
what he told me let me guess the Drone
all the Drone videos look up they were
shot on an mm 1968 camera wait wait wait
hold on hold on Jason Mark just explain
this so so the United States is is
simulating war games yeah and what is it
doing exactly that's causing these
drones to show up he did not tell me
what were the the games what were the
exact triggers that but he said
different things would trigger a
different one and he classified them and
he said some of them were aggressive
from an electronics and commun would
take out electronics and Communications
wow and he so he was interested and my
friend was interested in saying okay can
you put up a couple people um a million
and a half dollars to recreate this and
film this and I thought about it I even
had him go meet with
Reed and and didn't move quickly and
then he went dark on us and stopped
responding and then some friends of mine
went to a gathering at and what they it
was on multiple things related to this
and they said that this guy was there
and that he summoned one of these they
kind of said it looked like a large
drone and my friends showed me some
pictures that they took which were
really it was at night they were really
gra come on stop come on stop I'm not
making this up I'm just telling you just
one piece of advice with this
documentary film stuff you know how to
make a hundred million dollar in
documentary films right Pinkus yes start
with a billion start with a billion
you're the mark in all of this you're
just a mark this guy needs a million
dollars to finish his house or something
a canyon fair and you're the way to do
it I didn't the Mark I didn't find it
okay good so all I'm saying is that I
think that there's a possibility that
there is some kind of drone that's
getting that that is showing up and and
I'm not saying it's even from you know
from nonhuman making I believe it I
believe it I am looking I'll be honest
because I am looking for a reason to
believe in this I I'll be honest like I
know my bias
I am very sympathetic when I hear these
stories I listen way too long you know
to the podcast on this stuff I watch are
you donating to Alex Jones no but are
you a subscriber no but I I okay how
about
this are we convinced that there has
been absolutely
zero unidentified object inside some
Vault Buri deep somewhere
either the us or national state
government somewhere are we guaranteed
that the odds of that are zero and I say
no it's not let's do our fir uh what is
it fmy
paradox freeberg fmy paradox why aren't
the if there if there are aliens why
haven't we seen them quick around the
I'm not I'm not saying done my point on
this there is a UAP that is that has
been unidentified that is sitting inside
some Vault somewhere in in a state
government in the world so your position
is the aliens have come no stop saying
you but you you you you make the whole
thing seem ridiculous when you say
aliens I'm not saying that I'm saying
okay visitors from another planet no
stop with the visitors just let's just
put it this way a
vehicle that doesn't have to have
anything inside it a vehicle could be
autonomous and
unmanned okay is are the odds exactly
zero
no but with billions of planets it would
you know logic would make you think that
one has come already right that's with
there billions of inhabitable planets
and species out there there must have
somebody must be ahead of us but the
other conclusion of ferm's paradox is we
statistically are the highest a society
has ever gotten and we have yet to send
our probes out to the rest of the
universe although we have send probes
freeberg to Uranus all right everybody
thanks for tuning in this is all
disad
disad I need I need a I need
um young Spielberg to make us a a jingle
for disad
a.com Mark Pinkus you're amazing thank
you for fitting right in with your
besties uh and top bro on the baby
congrats congrat looking forward to
seeing you this weekend all right and we
will see oh and by the way just
programming note we're all going to be
at at the inauguration various parties
uh this weekend and we will be doing
some live episodes of the Allin podcast
probably on Sunday Monday time frame and
we will see you on the live stream go to
youtube.com subscribe to the Allin
podcast put on the notifications the
bell and then follow us on x.com the
Allin podcast and then again subscribe
and then just turn on notifications
you'll get a notification when we go
live on those two platforms we'll see
you all next time byebye love you boys
byebye
will let your winners
ride
Rainman we open sourced it to the fans
and they've just gone crazy with it love
queen
[Music]
of
[Music]
Besties my dog Tak
driveways man oh man myit
we should all just get a room and just
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all
this useless it's like this like sexual
tension that they just need to release
somehow we need to get
merch
[Music]
all I'm going
[Music]
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