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Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs

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Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs

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2554 segments

0:00

all right everybody welcome back to the

0:01

Allin podcast the number

0:04

one Finance technology business and Maga

0:08

podcast in the

0:09

world with us again today is the sulate

0:13

of science David freeberg living a

0:17

modern 1950s aesthetic lifestyle there

0:21

this is the uh House of Tomorrow House

0:24

of the future world at the original um

0:27

1955 Tomorrowland at Disneyland wow and

0:30

you have a NASA hat on this is amazing

0:32

he's in full geek out mode yeah I didn't

0:35

this I told you guys about this haircut

0:36

last week because you couldn't blow

0:39

yourself that's right properly I told

0:42

you this would happen to you it's

0:43

exactly what your M said would happen

0:46

look at the continuity he told you you

0:48

could never match the blow you got last

0:50

week and here we are I did my best I

0:53

mean it looks ridiculous but stylish in

0:55

a way and with us again your chairman

0:57

dictator chamath poly hop

1:00

he's ready to go to the

1:02

inauguration and take his Victory lap

1:05

and take an enormous amount of credit

1:08

shamad are you looking forward to your

1:10

Victory lap I was in Florida earlier

1:14

this week I came all the way back so

1:16

that I could play poker with my friends

1:18

and see my family and children oh nice

1:20

and I'll be flying all the way back out

1:22

tomorrow morning were you at maral Lago

1:24

no I was with my friend in a undisclosed

1:28

location with a friend in an undisclosed

1:30

location okay sounds great and joining

1:33

us for the first time one of my oldest

1:37

friends Mr Mark Pinkus or as we like to

1:40

say Marcus Pinkus why do you always take

1:42

credit for these guests being only your

1:45

friends the rest of us are the ones that

1:47

call them and are like hey do you want

1:48

to come on the show and then you're like

1:49

my old think longer than you I don't

1:52

know about that is that true back to

1:54

like AOL yeah well we met when you were

1:58

doing silicon alley right reporter yeah

2:00

in the 90s I've been collecting rent

2:02

from Mark pinkis for the last year it's

2:05

true my landlord you should whistleblow

2:07

on freeberg to Gavin's gouging police

2:10

and see if you can get

2:14

some let your winners

2:16

[Music]

2:17

ride

2:18

[Music]

2:21

David we open sources to the fans and

2:24

they've just gone crazy with it Queen

2:30

we'll get right to that in a minute uh

2:32

the price couch continues if our viewers

2:34

had to vote on who is most likely to

2:36

price couch it's 100% free BR th% but

2:39

let's be clear the real gouging is the

2:42

predio trust who's charging an amazingly

2:45

high rent like over $100 a foot and then

2:47

freeberg was actually giving me a pretty

2:50

good deal he was getting a pretty good

2:51

deal I was paying like 130 a foot or

2:53

something 120 130 a foot all in uh for

2:56

real estate in the Presidio and we just

2:59

weren't using the space but it is the

3:00

most expensive real estate it is nuts

3:02

quite an office my Lord the prio trust

3:05

manages that federal land and they get

3:07

to keep all the money and reinvest it

3:09

it's probably the only profitable

3:10

operation in the federal government I

3:13

used to be on the board so I I saw it

3:16

close up and they they reinvest in

3:18

things like you know restoring natural

3:20

habitats cutting down eucalyptus trees

3:23

right you know archaeological digs right

3:27

right it was really interesting I looked

3:29

at one of those those

3:31

houses to rent when it was first moving

3:34

up to San Francisco and the only problem

3:37

with those houses have these gorgeous

3:38

houses that were like the General's

3:39

houses like three four five bedrooms but

3:42

they would have one

3:44

bathroom right for four rooms and I like

3:47

can you put another bathroom and cannot

3:48

change anything these are historic

3:50

privileges so you know historic

3:52

landmarks marked it freeloader tribe

3:57

social network back in the day

3:58

support.com and if you wasted some

4:01

portion of your youth playing

4:03

Farmville he was one of the original app

4:06

creators or Zinga poker which famously

4:10

he said hey would you like to be an

4:11

investor in Zinga poker and I said how

4:13

does it work he said oh well you play

4:14

for virtual coins and I said Mark this

4:17

is the stupidest thing I've ever heard

4:18

you've taken all of the money out of the

4:22

the the game it's never going to work

4:24

and of course he turned it into a

4:25

multi-billion dollar company and that

4:27

was another $25 million Angel investment

4:29

Miss on my part but Mark you were also

4:32

like early General social networking you

4:34

were involved in Facebook as an investor

4:37

Linked In weren't you like ear on yeah I

4:41

I think the first social media

4:43

investment I made was Napster I sent the

4:45

first check Wow first $100,000 I think

4:48

of that as the beginning of all this but

4:50

then yeah Reed and I put up the first

4:52

money for

4:54

friender and then we were lucky enough

4:57

to invest along with Peter in the first

4:59

round Facebook wow the First on on

5:02

Twitter so yeah like pick the right body

5:05

of water even if your boat doesn't tribe

5:08

didn't

5:09

work but but you placed five other bats

5:12

so you hit a couple of them it works out

5:14

just

5:16

fine you uh I believe you owned the six

5:20

degrees patents the original social

5:23

network in the 90s in web 1.0 was a

5:26

company called six degrees and uh they

5:28

had a bunch of patents and I believe you

5:30

bought them and then sold them to

5:32

Facebook yeah no we didn't sell them

5:34

Reed and I bought them because we were

5:37

worried that if Yahoo at the time had

5:40

gotten them or even Friendster that they

5:42

would have blocked the whole industry so

5:44

we bought them we we paid 750k which was

5:48

a lot then and we were accused of being

5:51

patent trolls and we never got that

5:55

opportunity we just sat on them to this

5:58

day actually I own half and Microsoft

6:00

owns other half are you still close with

6:03

with Reed Mark yeah very close how did

6:07

you guys reconcile your differences and

6:09

political views in this last election

6:11

because he was very vocal kamla you

6:13

obviously became vocal Trump and very

6:17

kind of kind of diametrically different

6:20

views on the

6:22

future well it's interesting because

6:23

Reed and I really started the whole kind

6:26

of journey into bigger National politics

6:29

together we both sat down and had lunch

6:32

with Biden and made wrote big checks uh

6:36

a little over a year ago December of

6:39

23 and and then you know won't bother

6:43

you but I I had my red pill moment and I

6:45

went a very different direction which

6:47

started off just questioning the

6:49

Democrats hold on hold on can you

6:51

actually just double click into that

6:53

what was your red pill moment was there

6:55

one specific thing or was it more of a

6:57

trickle of things it was both right it

6:59

starts the wall starts crumbling and

7:01

then it comes down all at once so for me

7:04

it really

7:06

started early in 23 I started reading

7:10

pirate wires and Mike salana and I

7:13

thought he was a little crazy at first

7:14

because he would write these articles

7:17

one he wrote was about how the Ukrainian

7:20

soldiers had swastikas on their helmets

7:22

in the New York Times photographers

7:24

would ask them to take the saskas off

7:26

for photos and I said that can't be

7:28

right that can't be true

7:30

and then four months later it was in the

7:31

New York Times buried in the middle of

7:33

the paper and I kept seeing stories like

7:36

that that that he would be early on and

7:40

so I just started feeling uncomfortable

7:42

and Queasy about what was going on with

7:44

mainstream media and then in May of last

7:48

year of 24 I read some article that

7:51

talked about Trump's speech in

7:53

Charlottesville and this has been well

7:56

covered but but where he said there was

7:58

good people on both sides Ides and the

8:01

article said it was completely you know

8:05

propaganda and not what he actually not

8:07

accurately reflecting what he said that

8:10

uh that he denounced the Nazis a bunch

8:12

of times in his speech and so then I

8:14

went and watched that video and that was

8:17

my red pill moment I think it was for a

8:19

lot of people because it wasn't just the

8:22

media spinning it or politicians

8:25

spinning it that was like one of the

8:27

pillars of why you were supposed to hate

8:28

Trump

8:30

that speech and and then you

8:34

see Biden say that's why he had to run a

8:37

second time and you see Obama go to you

8:40

even see Biden bring it up again in the

8:42

beginning of the DNC and it's one of

8:44

their pillars and they clearly know that

8:46

they're misrepresenting things so for me

8:49

that was just that was beyond

8:51

uncomfortable I was just like okay now I

8:53

got to go back to First principles and

8:55

look at the primary data and listen only

8:58

to original speech by people and I just

9:01

realized I couldn't trust mainstream

9:03

media so I was I became I started

9:06

questioning the Democrats as soon as I

9:07

started questioning the Democrats I

9:09

started getting a lot of Shame and anger

9:13

and hatred oh the other thing that

9:14

happened those part of this journey is

9:16

that my chief of staff parted ways with

9:19

me after nine years in April of last

9:21

year and he was the main person

9:24

protecting me from myself on Twitter and

9:26

he was the one who would say stay in

9:28

your lane nobody wants to hear what you

9:30

think about politics or San Francisco or

9:33

anything other than you know your area

9:35

of products and investing and with him

9:37

gone I just started tweeting whatever I

9:40

felt and thought and sometimes I got it

9:43

wrong or it was a little too emotional

9:45

but first of all it was really fun and

9:47

then second of all I found I got

9:50

connected to this whole new audience of

9:52

people who are these kind of techno

9:54

optimists I think you guys probably

9:56

talked about

9:57

it and

9:59

that just brought me down this path that

10:02

eventually I came out two days before

10:05

the

10:07

election publicly for Trump um and it

10:10

was only because that's when I

10:12

completely got there and I was trying to

10:14

just be completely honest and authentic

10:17

with myself and on Twitter at the same

10:20

time and my daughters turned to me that

10:23

Sunday and they said you're you're going

10:26

to vote for Trump we know it and I said

10:28

yeah you're probably right and they said

10:29

well then you have to go say it on

10:31

Twitter and my daughter's like really in

10:33

this with me yeah so anyway and then it

10:36

was on the front page of the New York

10:38

Post on the day of the election that I

10:41

was uh this not that I'm such news but

10:44

maybe it just was their news Peg um that

10:47

I was coming out for Trump and but I'll

10:51

get back to your re question but what I

10:53

love about my New York Times about my

10:55

New York friends is that they did not

10:58

give a they were all proa and they

11:02

texted me and they're just like oh

11:04

that's kind of funny but it's one thing

11:06

I kind of love about New York they

11:08

didn't care back to your question on

11:10

Reed what I love about Reed was he was

11:14

already getting pings from people saying

11:16

what's going on with pinkis he's going

11:18

off the rails he's becoming a Trumper

11:21

you know it's you guys I'm sure have

11:23

gone down got a little bit of that too

11:25

about shamas in

11:27

freeberg yeah me like what's wrong with

11:30

him we got to bring him back into the

11:32

fold you know he's he's should we lock

11:34

him up is he crazy um and so Reed was

11:37

already getting these I had a lot of

11:39

anxiety about talking to Reed about it

11:42

and finally Reed and I got on

11:46

FaceTime and he just said I just want to

11:49

start by saying I'm team Mark and I said

11:52

I'm team Reed and it gets out a little

11:54

you know a a but well no Americans can

11:57

get along even if they disagree ically

11:59

about a candidate is probably where we

12:01

need to get to especially you know now

12:03

that Trump's going to be in office in a

12:04

couple of days what was it like when you

12:07

had for Biden yeah okay well just to

12:10

finish the read part sorry but no

12:12

problem what what I love about Reed is

12:15

that we followed that with a 4-Hour

12:16

dinner and he said I never questioned

12:20

your principles he said I know you're a

12:23

highly principled person and I just want

12:25

to understand which principles it is and

12:28

I'd like to convince to change your mind

12:30

but anyway so was hold on one second

12:34

so I you said something almost in

12:38

passing but I just want to double click

12:41

I think part of what Silicon Valley

12:44

actually gets wrong is that we don't

12:47

embrace the tism and what I mean by that

12:50

is everybody we're all a little socially

12:53

uncomfortable we awkward I wouldn't say

12:56

that we were the coolest people growing

12:58

up and there this virulent form of

13:01

blockers you called it Chief of Staff I

13:05

think that these folks can be very

13:08

detrimental which almost represent this

13:11

filter between your true self and

13:14

everybody else and there is this game

13:16

that's played about being a

13:19

gatekeeper I do think that executive

13:22

assistants are valuable administrative

13:24

assistance are valuable the reason I can

13:27

say this is that my EA went on maternity

13:30

leave I had and I experimented with a

13:32

chief of staff Etc and now I use Jason

13:35

service called Athena and I have a guy

13:38

that works with me in the

13:41

Philippines and it's about 3,000 a month

13:44

and I can honestly tell you this guy is

13:46

the single most effective administrative

13:49

support I've ever had and what there

13:52

isn't is all these opinions on what I

13:54

can say or do and I think that when you

13:57

look at a lot of these big companies if

13:58

you look at zuck's current

14:00

transformation or what you just spoke

14:01

about there are all these

14:03

Interlopers that seem to get in the

14:05

middle of you and people's perception of

14:09

you I don't know if you have any

14:10

comments or reactions to that idea yeah

14:13

it's part of where I know you guys have

14:15

talked about Zuck coming out as Lisa's

14:18

based or his seemingly more authentic

14:20

self or sharing more about himself and I

14:24

can relate to it because I think we all

14:27

go through this this struggle as you

14:31

start to be more of a known person

14:34

inside your company outside your company

14:37

and you have people around you taking

14:40

the edges off and I think that we're now

14:45

in this time that I think we're having

14:47

authenticity is having a moment now

14:50

which is great for me because Reed said

14:53

to me I I've if you Google me you'll see

14:55

that there's lots and lots of bad things

14:58

written about me and a lot of it is my

15:01

high school quote was some people have

15:03

tacked and others tell the truth and

15:05

I've always been kind of just committed

15:07

to being honest even if it's nuanced and

15:11

it's not an easy sound bite and Reed

15:13

said to me early on you need to pick

15:15

what the easy narrative is or the Press

15:18

is going to make it up for you and he

15:20

was right and they did or my competitors

15:23

did so I think that now with long form

15:28

podcasts and there's just more and the

15:31

fact that we can kind of directly in a

15:33

lot of ways Elon was the first one to

15:35

directly defend himself you remember

15:37

when well he fired his whole do you

15:38

remember when he fired his whole PR team

15:40

he fired all those people there's just

15:42

like there's none of that infrastructure

15:44

between him and and everybody else but

15:47

do you remember when he would be on

15:49

Twitter all the time post PayPal trying

15:51

to correct the story and just write long

15:55

long diet tribes and then and then when

15:57

a New York Times reported said something

15:59

negative about a Tesla he just went off

16:02

for weeks about them and and it seemed a

16:05

little crazy and deranged and then you

16:06

started to see that it worked like he

16:08

actually and we were told don't defend

16:11

yourself if something bad is written

16:12

about you you're going to prolong the

16:14

press cycle you're going to make the

16:17

journalist

16:19

angry and so we've we're now Unshackled

16:22

I I teach this class at Stanford and I

16:24

taught two backtack on Monday and I

16:27

looked around and I saw half the plaque

16:29

her said you know she her you know he

16:33

him his and I got a little Pang of like

16:36

oh do I have to watch what I'm saying

16:37

I'm like no I don't I'm Unshackled I'm

16:40

just gonna this is just me and I'm gonna

16:43

be Mark unfiltered and it's the better

16:45

version of ourselves so anyway I I'm

16:48

glad that Zuck feels like he can be he

16:51

can present more of his complete self

16:55

out there now and I think we can get

16:57

into it later but I have a lot of

16:59

thoughts on how the culture is going to

17:01

kind of move more towards Bas back to

17:03

the other question with Biden that lunch

17:06

you had did he seem like he was all

17:09

there yeah come on was it in the

17:11

afternoon I mean did you have concerns

17:13

about that that was sharp as attack that

17:16

was thing that broke me I mean I'm not

17:18

saying I'm like full mag over here I was

17:20

like wait a second are you guys lying

17:22

about this like how long is this and how

17:25

deep is this cover up I have no horse in

17:27

this race I didn't have a horse in the

17:29

race so I had nothing to lie about I for

17:32

sure don't now I'm really not a Biden

17:35

fan or

17:37

protector I'll tell you like the exact

17:41

my exact observation we we had this

17:44

lunch there was like maybe five of us

17:47

with Biden and a few of his Finance

17:49

people in they had it in the tennis

17:52

house which is the way they found that

17:55

they can have a fundraising lunch on the

17:57

property of the White House they found

17:59

some way we'll see if if Trump does it

18:01

hole right yeah the loophole and and it

18:04

was I was impressed it was a long launch

18:06

it must have been hour and a half two

18:07

hours and I'll tell you the good and the

18:10

bad the good the part I was impressed

18:13

was he kept the conversation thread he

18:16

was engaged and kept the thread the

18:18

whole time when people you say sharp as

18:21

attack or kept the thread that's how we

18:24

talk about like our 90-year-old

18:26

grandparent or something so I'm just

18:28

saying the reality to me he he was

18:32

not he did not seem mentally debilitated

18:37

in the sense of

18:39

dementia but we were impressed that he

18:42

was able to follow the conversation

18:45

thread and then say you know but okay

18:48

let me say it differently would you have

18:50

had the same bar if it was Jamie Diamond

18:53

sitting across from you for 2our

18:56

lunch no no so so so yes it was it was

19:00

wow your grandfather is holding up

19:03

really well like your grandfather was

19:05

able to have a whole lunch and hold the

19:08

conversation but it wasn't I didn't walk

19:11

away saying I I have to admit I did not

19:14

walk away saying I think he's mentally

19:15

unfit but I did but and I wasn't shocked

19:20

but I was like okay this is someone

19:22

who's being really handled and managed

19:24

by the people around him and he's being

19:26

told to show up here say say this but I

19:30

will say he was he was not on an obvious

19:32

script which I know I think famously he

19:35

did some fundraiser at vod's house where

19:38

he was reading a prompter the whole time

19:40

so wasn't reading a

19:42

prompter yeah that at a at a person's

19:46

home they brought a teleprompter for him

19:48

to speak wow that's you didn't hear that

19:50

I didn't actually that's new information

19:52

that's yeah crazy but I mean In fairness

19:56

like the um there's this issue called

19:58

Sun Downing people who are in that age

20:01

group they're good in the day and then

20:03

the sun goes down and you know their

20:06

brains are exhausted and and that's when

20:09

you would see it and that's what they

20:10

said about the debate but for me that

20:12

was the the coronation of comma and like

20:15

not actually having a speedrun primary

20:17

that to me was just anti-democratic

20:20

anti-American and like just what

20:22

happened to Meritt and like having a

20:24

process here right that's when I felt

20:26

like the party just CED

20:29

I'm glad you're here let's jump um okay

20:31

but let me ask you a question before we

20:32

get into the doc we got a lot to talk

20:34

about obviously but what do you think

20:36

the Democratic party does from here like

20:38

is everybody's like this they're lost in

20:40

a drift we're not even hearing from them

20:43

maybe a little bit of uh push back I

20:46

guess at

20:47

these Senate hearings right now for

20:50

confirmations but what do you think

20:52

happens is there any hope for this and

20:55

and who would lead them out of this

20:56

Shapiro somebody

20:59

AOC I think that what my brain my kind

21:03

of intelligent front of brain would tell

21:06

me the logical thing which I think I

21:09

want to say is one lens that I think we

21:12

have to be careful not to just apply

21:13

logic here because it's parties and and

21:16

the Democrats but the logic would say oh

21:19

they're going to find based authentic

21:22

people to put up against these other

21:24

ones like the kind of Federman types

21:27

that they're going to put those people

21:30

forth who are more Centrist and also are

21:34

more trustworthy that they're actually

21:36

authentic in their flaws that's what my

21:38

brain would tell me I think there'll be

21:40

a little of that that the party I

21:43

believe is will move more that way I

21:46

think that the corporate candidates

21:48

aren't going to fly anymore with the

21:50

electorate I think that the managed

21:53

corporate through sound bites can't do a

21:56

long form things like this I think

21:59

that's over and we can get into that

22:02

later if we want but I think they won't

22:05

go as far as they should so so they the

22:08

they won't go as far as like what I

22:10

think we would intelligently advise them

22:12

to do so so that's as much as I can

22:16

figure out that they should do that but

22:18

they won't interesting well we're

22:20

certainly going to find out in the next

22:22

year or two what their direction is when

22:24

they get to the midterms I suppose oh

22:27

one more thing though on it is yeah and

22:29

a lot of it depends on really what we

22:32

see and if if Doge starts to really get

22:36

popular support this whole I think you

22:38

guys talked about this last week that

22:39

the more that FDR style Trump and people

22:44

get popular support it's going to become

22:47

a more and more isolating lonely place

22:50

in two years to still be like you know

22:53

California Gavin everyone saying don't

22:56

worry we're going to protect you against

22:58

these people if if they're doing things

23:00

that are popular to still saying you're

23:02

protecting against them I think won't

23:04

fly well that's a a great jump off point

23:06

because Gavin does seem and Karen bass

23:09

seem like their careers are ending and

23:10

they're in the last stages of trying to

23:13

maybe get a little bit more pragmatic

23:16

based is the word people might use for

23:17

that just being super candid but let's

23:20

get let's get into a little bit of an

23:22

update here about the absolute tragedy

23:24

occurring in Los Angeles the death toll

23:26

is now at 25 uh ,000 structures have

23:29

been destroyed it's mostly people's

23:31

homes it's 40,000 Acres that's 60 square

23:34

miles I think San Francisco is 7 by S

23:38

miles right so this is a lot of uh space

23:41

it's bigger than all of San Francisco

23:44

the Palisades and eaten fires are still

23:46

burning and as of Wednesday 80,000

23:49

people were under evacuation

23:52

orders couple of our friends lost their

23:54

homes and uh but they survived but the

23:58

story of losing everything are just

24:00

tragic every

24:02

memory all your personal documents

24:04

photos art whatever that you've

24:07

collected over a lifetime I just had two

24:09

conversations with people and they were

24:11

just in shock the estimates right now of

24:15

damage are between 135 billion and $150

24:19

billion this is some of the most

24:21

expensive real estate on the planet it's

24:24

10 times more costly than any other

24:26

wildfire in history according to reports

24:29

uh you might remember the campfire near

24:32

Paradise California that's about what 3

24:34

hours North of San Francisco Northeast

24:37

that one was 12.5 billion just to level

24:41

set it

24:42

uh and now people are talking about and

24:45

we'll talk about here today what the

24:47

recovery and rebuild effort might look

24:49

like California leadership disad across

24:53

the

24:54

board Gavin I just

24:59

disad Gavin new have you had traffic to

25:02

dad.com with all of this yeah right now

25:04

dad.com is going to be red director to

25:06

Gavin or Karen bass I don't know which

25:09

one is more disgraceful I mean it's it's

25:12

an incredible troll that you just

25:13

redirected every week to whoever you're

25:15

mad is that

25:17

yeah who would be more disgraceful in

25:19

this situation Gavin or Karen bass I

25:22

think it's got to be k for just being

25:23

out of the country I think I think it

25:25

would be quite funny if every week you

25:27

actually gave an award redirected the

25:29

website to the I give it to this week

25:31

and before that it was Jake Paul for

25:33

that Tyson fight and the

25:36

disad but it's the stakes have gone up

25:41

Gavin is now doing executive orders one

25:44

of them is to make it illegal to lobal

25:47

offers to impacted homeowners for the

25:49

next three months I don't know what the

25:52

point of that is and the other one is to

25:55

eliminate the coastal acts review of

25:58

permits for the the

26:02

houses that are along PCH I

26:05

suppose and he wants

26:08

to extend key price gouging protections

26:12

quote to help make rebuilding more

26:14

affordable gouging is defined as raising

26:17

the rent or price of other goods and

26:19

services more than 10% from the last

26:21

marketed

26:23

price but it could be as little as 5%

26:25

it's just not clear and then LA mayor

26:28

bass created a snitch hotline to report

26:31

on any kind of price gouging and rents

26:34

which we've started to see people are

26:36

now naming and shaming Zillow and red

26:40

fin listings where they you can see the

26:42

previous history of what they were

26:44

asking for for a home or for rent and

26:46

obviously the free market is

26:49

making rental homes double in price

26:52

freeberg we talked a bunch about this

26:54

and I know Pinkus you've got we had I

26:56

don't know if you're comfortable talking

26:57

about it but we had a whole conversation

26:58

about your getting dragged by the

27:01

coastal

27:02

Commission in Northern California

27:05

freeberg maybe kick us off here on what

27:08

your thoughts are on rebuilding this

27:11

area how this will happen especially

27:15

with what we brought up last week and I

27:18

think when a bit viral is your sort of

27:20

talk about putting your thumb on the

27:21

scale with insurance I mean this is I

27:25

think one of the concerning things here

27:27

is

27:29

the free market not being allowed to

27:31

progress previously with insurance and

27:33

then now with the rebuild well

27:36

California's got at this point price

27:39

controls or a mechanism for

27:42

controlling the change in price on

27:45

insurance on Housing Services and now

27:48

they've got this non-solicitation

27:51

rule all three I think are very

27:54

challenging to I think an appropriate

27:58

Market recovery look the insurance issue

28:00

is a longer one if you guys want we

28:02

could talk about that I've got a couple

28:03

notes I can bring up on the history of

28:05

how we got to this point but I think

28:06

it's going to be the one of the biggest

28:08

burdens going forward and it could

28:10

actually lead to a pretty significant

28:12

effect in long-term housing prices in

28:15

California because of the way that the

28:17

insurance Market is structured and

28:19

regulated in

28:21

California but if you want we can talk

28:23

about that or up or down what do you

28:25

think ultimately you know tldr like do

28:28

you think prices are going to go way up

28:30

here do you think this is going to take

28:32

five or 10 years to rebuild these homes

28:34

I mean we've never seen this many

28:36

structures go down at this price point

28:39

in a constrained area where just

28:42

construction is so expensive and hard so

28:44

I think the the governor did a good job

28:46

suspending the permitting requirements

28:47

for the coastal act for affected homes

28:50

and the squa review those are very

28:53

important I think

28:54

suspensions but he also put in place

28:57

this executive order for price gouging

28:58

and if you pull up the note Nick so he

29:01

basically said California penal code

29:03

section

29:04

396 which prohibits price gouging during

29:07

a declared state of emergency will now

29:09

extend indefinitely in this region and

29:12

in the language in that Penal Code it

29:15

says that businesses cannot raise the

29:18

price of essential goods and services by

29:20

more than 10% above their pre-emergency

29:23

price for a specified period and in this

29:26

case his executive order is in

29:28

definitely so in on an indefinite basis

29:30

you cannot raise the price of goods and

29:33

services which generally applies to

29:35

consumer goods like food and emergency

29:37

supplies but it also applies to building

29:39

materials and services related to

29:41

housing work so if you want to

29:45

attract Builders if you want to attract

29:48

contractors if you want to attract

29:50

electricians and plumbers to go to the

29:52

LA area you have to allow the market to

29:55

do its job if I'm a plumber operating in

29:58

Sacramento or in Phoenix and I'm like

30:00

man I could make some money if I go to

30:02

La you will see an influx of service

30:05

providers and an influx of goods to

30:07

support the rebuilding effort in

30:08

Southern California that's the way the

30:10

free market should work is there's an

30:12

opportunity in the market folks show up

30:14

they say great I can make money I'm

30:16

going to come here and do this work and

30:18

as more folks show up they begin to

30:21

compete on price and eventually the cost

30:23

kind of normalizes and you end up

30:25

finding what is now the new fair market

30:27

value between the bid and the ask the

30:30

people that are saying hey I'll do the

30:31

work they're the ask and hey I need

30:33

people to do work that's the bid and you

30:35

find a price but the benefit of that is

30:37

you increase the supply you increase the

30:39

supply of goods you increase the supply

30:41

of service providers of contractors

30:43

there is a home building dir right now

30:45

in the United States so this is an

30:46

amazing opportunity because they can now

30:48

move to LA build homes we can get a

30:51

rapid reconstruction effort underway

30:53

except the governor just said we can't

30:56

pay people 10% higher than what they

30:57

were getting paid

30:58

right before this happened on an

31:00

indefinite basis and then Karen bass

31:02

created a hotline you can go to La 311

31:05

and report people if they're trying to

31:06

charge too much and then the uh you know

31:08

the Stacey will come and investigate you

31:10

and determine that you're charging too

31:12

much I understand that there's a strong

31:14

moral imperative and incentive to say we

31:16

got to stop price gouging we don't want

31:18

people to get hurt but the second order

31:20

effect is you're actually hurting the

31:21

market and you're hurting the rebuild

31:23

effort because you're reducing the

31:24

incentive for folks to come in and fill

31:26

the void in the market that is necessary

31:28

for us to accelerate the development of

31:30

15,000 homes in a very short period of

31:32

time the alternative now is people are

31:34

going to be sitting around and I already

31:36

spoke to a couple friends I'm sure you

31:37

guys have that are like I try calling

31:39

Architects I try calling contractors

31:41

people that live in this area that have

31:42

been affected I cannot get anyone to

31:44

return my call there is not enough

31:46

service providers down there you're

31:47

going to end up waiting six seven years

31:49

to get your home rebuilt now what do you

31:51

do you own a a lot you don't have a home

31:53

to live in and then there's this other

31:56

thing where we can't take unol offers on

31:58

the home that was the other executive

31:59

order so if you want to pull that one up

32:01

the governor said it is illegal to make

32:04

an unsolicited offer on a piece of real

32:07

estate in one of these affected zip

32:08

codes I don't know what that happened in

32:12

Hawaii that makes the governor keep

32:14

referencing the Hawaii story as if you

32:16

know that there were people that were

32:18

taken advantage of and we need to

32:19

protect the citizens of LA but I'm

32:22

pretty sure that having an increase in

32:25

the number of offers coming in for Real

32:27

Estate

32:29

increases maret increases buy behavior

32:33

and that will ultimately

32:35

drive and that will ultimately make it

32:37

easier by having more liquidity for some

32:39

of these folks who owned burn down lots

32:41

to be able to sell their lot take their

32:43

insurance check move to another

32:45

neighborhood and go somewhere else

32:46

because they're going to have to

32:47

otherwise wait six or seven years to

32:48

build a

32:50

home yeah I think you're a little bit

32:53

off the deep end with some of this stuff

32:54

because I think you're not being totally

32:56

fair in representing what this EO says

33:00

and that's coming from me I mean I am

33:03

not a Nome fan okay and I think he is

33:06

completely and totally

33:09

incompetent but I'll just take the other

33:11

side of this which is that I read the EO

33:15

and I actually think it's somewhat

33:18

reasonable and I didn't connect the dots

33:22

with the EO and the real estate market

33:24

and the reason is that if you read all

33:26

of what he said the EO was hypers

33:28

specific to unsolicited offers to a very

33:32

specific handful of zip codes and it was

33:34

time boxed for three months so he said

33:38

making any unsolicited offer to an owner

33:41

of real estate property located in the

33:44

areas encompassed by and he names a

33:46

bunch of zip go I think there was like

33:48

one two there's like 12 or 13 of them

33:51

okay so unsolicited okay yep to to

33:54

acquire any interest in real property

33:56

for an amount less than the fair market

33:59

value of the

34:01

property on January 6th so before the

34:06

fire started and before the home bur

34:08

down and he said that's prohibited for

34:10

three months that's it for three months

34:13

and the reason I think he said that is

34:15

that if you just scope out a little bit

34:18

just from this moment in Los Angeles the

34:21

problem is that after natural disasters

34:23

there is a spike in fraudulent

34:26

activities and there are people that try

34:29

to take advantage of that situation to

34:31

make money so for example after

34:32

hurricanes we saw this in Florida people

34:35

poses contractors they come in and they

34:38

offer inflated prices they offer poor

34:40

quality of work and especially when you

34:43

sort of deregulate for that moment where

34:45

there's less checks there's less folks

34:48

involved because you're trying to speed

34:50

up the process you can have a bunch of

34:53

pressure tactics that work against the

34:55

best interests of the person trying to

34:57

build on the Wildfire side there was

35:00

this crazy thing Nick I'll s you the

35:02

link from KTLA that about these folks

35:05

called fire Chasers which are

35:07

essentially like you know Wildfire

35:08

scammers they're ambulance Chasers but

35:11

during fir okay so so so my point is

35:13

yeah I don't disagree with his

35:15

incompetence okay and I think he is

35:17

totally out of touch I think there's a

35:20

broken cartel that runs the state that's

35:22

going to drive this state into just

35:25

complete disrepair he was

35:28

NE already you can't say a state that

35:32

has $322 billion budget is already

35:35

bankrupt it's it's teetering on a path

35:38

where we won't be able to return and we

35:40

can debate that but my point is I just

35:43

think despite all of this he's grossly

35:45

negligent Karen bass is grossly

35:47

negligent the California cartel is

35:50

breaking this state but on this specific

35:53

narrow thing I kind of will give him his

35:55

flowers I think it was like a decent

35:57

smart good thing it's narrowly focused

36:01

there's a specific window here that's

36:03

time boxed so that the worst behaviors

36:06

of other people are roughly managed and

36:09

mitigated until we can figure out a

36:11

better answer you're saying that

36:12

unsolicited offers on real estate can

36:15

drive fraud what you talked about if

36:18

there is a person that is this does not

36:21

prevent Somebody by let's talk about

36:23

Services separately because he has a

36:24

separate EO on services this does not

36:26

prevent anybody whose house burned down

36:28

from listing his lot you could sell it

36:30

for a dollar that's right so it's not

36:32

it's I think it's it's not right and

36:34

it's inaccurate to say that this is

36:37

perturbing and distorting the free

36:38

market the idea that you cannot sell

36:41

isn't what is in this CEO the idea is

36:43

some person shows up out of the blue and

36:46

applies a pressure tactic to you when

36:48

you're in a very stressful situation

36:51

trying to deal with your insurance

36:53

brokers trying to figure out where your

36:55

kids are going to go to school they're

36:56

just making an offer what's the pressure

36:58

tactic it's why can't someone make an

37:00

offer on your home you want people to B

37:01

up David David here's what's going to

37:03

happen there are people that in the

37:05

middle of all of this stress are trying

37:07

to figure out how much money they can

37:08

get somebody shows up and underbids what

37:12

the true price Discovery could be in a

37:15

few months from now you don't know

37:17

whether you have to still pay back your

37:19

mortgage there will be people it will be

37:21

nonzero that will make a mistake and I

37:24

think that it's good to try to stop that

37:26

it doesn't absorb him from his

37:28

incompetence but this I think was

37:30

reasonably good what about the services

37:32

piece jamat the fact that you can't

37:34

increase pricing on goods and services

37:35

by more than 10% for an indefinite

37:37

period don't you think that that creates

37:39

a disincentive for service providers to

37:40

come into the state to come and address

37:43

the obviously it does yeah this Grand

37:46

ideal of the free market will solve

37:49

everything isn't necessarily always true

37:52

it's great in theory it reads well in a

37:54

textbook but real life is messy right

37:57

now we are in the messy part and we are

37:59

in the most critical part where the

38:01

abuses will be the highest I suspect

38:03

that in 6 months and 9 months and 12

38:05

months the free market will sort all of

38:08

these things out so if there's a

38:10

governor who can Implement some checks

38:14

and balances to protect these folks who

38:16

are probably totally dazed like for

38:18

example we know some of our friends I've

38:20

spoken to them over the last few days

38:22

I've spoken to their

38:26

wives

38:28

H I'll say I'll say it in in a horrible

38:31

way one person said this to me and I'll

38:33

just just quote him the amount of people

38:36

that have reached out to me if you had

38:37

asked me two weeks ago why would so many

38:39

people reach out with condolences I

38:42

would have thought that one of my

38:43

children had died that's what he said to

38:44

me and it completely struck me with it's

38:48

not on that same level but the amount of

38:50

emotional turmoil that these families

38:53

are going through probably approaches

38:54

that I don't think many of those people

38:56

are in a condition to make make good

38:57

decisions right now so I almost think a

38:59

cooling off period actually benefits

39:02

everybody it can allow the free market

39:05

to work in a few months from now we're

39:06

only talking 90 days no no the uh the

39:08

services thing is indefinite that's

39:10

that's what I think is a little bit

39:11

frustrating let me bring Mark in here

39:12

Mark you heard both sides of this

39:14

debate if you had a lot in the Pacific

39:18

Palisades that burned down and people

39:20

started making unsolicited offer listen

39:22

you're sophisticated I've known you for

39:24

20 plus years uh you're very

39:26

sophisticated

39:28

obviously but do you think that's a

39:31

reasonable thing to do to put a

39:33

moratorium on people making these low

39:35

bit offers and then we'll get to the

39:36

construction piece second but you know

39:39

what you offers unsolicited offers yes

39:41

unsolicited offers yeah what do what do

39:43

you think of that I think what what

39:45

bothers me about it there's a

39:47

presumption and and maybe chim's right

39:50

in it you're getting me to think about

39:51

it a little more than I was but but I'm

39:54

pretty much where freeberg is that we're

39:57

we're kind of treating these people like

39:59

children cuz we're what we're saying is

40:02

that they're not capable of making good

40:06

decisions so we need to protect them

40:08

from themselves and we're saying so we

40:11

don't want you to know that somebody is

40:15

willing to pay X dollar for your

40:17

property because you might take it and

40:19

you might regret later that you took

40:22

that is kind of what chamath is saying

40:24

no in a in a very narrow window where

40:27

you may not have the best and clearest

40:30

ability to make the best decision for

40:32

you because you're dealing with so many

40:33

other crazy issues in your life and you

40:36

could still say no you could say no but

40:39

you're presuming there's there's one

40:41

side that bothers me that feels like

40:43

what we've had from the Democratic party

40:45

forever which is that this this big wise

40:49

Overlord that's going to protect us from

40:51

our selves from our worst natures and

40:55

then on the other hand you're bringing

40:57

up something chat that I I hadn't

41:00

thought about that I'm just thinking

41:01

more about now which is well maybe

41:03

people could be taken advantage of at

41:06

the

41:07

margin because they're in they feel like

41:10

they're in a dire position but but if

41:13

they think they're in a dire position

41:14

they might really be in a dire position

41:16

so they might really well for example

41:19

let's just say that you haven't heard

41:20

back from the banks that own your

41:22

mortgage about whether there's going to

41:25

be a moratorium on mortgage payments

41:28

and so now you're trying to juggle

41:29

paying for an extra rental and this

41:31

house while you're trying to figure out

41:32

where to put your kids and somebody

41:34

shows up and says hey I will buy this

41:36

from you I think that there are a lot of

41:38

people who would otherwise be able to

41:41

make a much more rational decision who

41:43

may make a panic decision in that moment

41:46

and I think that if you give people a

41:47

90-day cooling off period I think it at

41:50

least shines a light on whether all of

41:54

this governmental and other

41:55

infrastructure can actually do something

41:57

for these people I do think that there

41:59

is a moment at which you can't govern

42:01

these things and all I'm suggesting is a

42:04

very narrow window of time where

42:07

people's feelings of just like

42:08

desperation are at their highest I think

42:10

that this is a decent thing to do you

42:13

know there is some precedent for the

42:15

state doing stuff like this you know in

42:17

Most states there is a cooling off

42:19

period with marriages and divorces you

42:22

you have to wait 3 Days To to file

42:25

either way to get married or to get

42:26

divorced let's talk about the

42:28

construction process here freeberg

42:29

because I think that's the most

42:31

important one because we're going to

42:32

rebuild if you don't pay a premium to

42:37

get somebody to leave another Market to

42:39

come to this one which is what's going

42:40

to be required there are simply not

42:42

enough construction people in any state

42:44

that's right so now you're competing

42:45

with another state that's right this

42:47

immediately triggered uh the debate and

42:51

D I say courage that Travis had around

42:53

this issue with surge pricing for Uber

42:56

lift and side car and a bunch of other

42:58

folks who were kind of virtue signaling

43:00

were like we don't ever want to do

43:02

search pricing therefore there were

43:04

never cars on the road on Friday and

43:06

Saturday nights when people needed them

43:08

or

43:09

during you know inclement weather

43:12

snowstorms

43:14

or on New Year's Eve and he said if you

43:17

want to increase Supply We Believe Uber

43:20

should have availability lift took a

43:22

different decision we're GNA have no

43:23

search pricing and they just simply

43:25

weren't available so maybe

43:27

what do you think about that piece

43:29

Pinkus you

43:31

think that the free market and people

43:34

should be able to say you know what I'll

43:35

pay you time and a half to come here

43:37

I'll pay you double time to work

43:38

Saturday and Sundays I'll get a couple

43:40

of RVs put them in the back if you want

43:42

to have some folks live on the

43:44

construction site and if you hit these

43:46

dates I'll pay you a bonus for hitting

43:47

it doesn't seem like any of that would

43:50

be wrong to me for somebody who had the

43:53

ability to pay an incentive for somebody

43:56

to move from another state would be out

43:59

of line here what are your thoughts on

44:01

that I agree I mean I'm I'm pretty much

44:05

just a free market believer and so I

44:09

think other than guardrails like chamat

44:12

saying and maybe I like the idea of

44:14

cooling off periods it kind of makes

44:16

sense but outside of that when it comes

44:19

to service providers yeah you have the

44:20

opposite problem right now which is like

44:22

you're saying you need to incentivize a

44:25

huge construction for

44:27

to come to LA and the cost for them to

44:32

get there to find housing themselves is

44:36

going to be even higher or the amount of

44:39

distance they're going to have to travel

44:40

every day so I think I think this could

44:43

have real unintended consequences and

44:46

just stop the just stop the wheels from

44:50

turning on rebuilding all these homes

44:53

which just make it way more complex so I

44:57

agree J final thoughts on the rebuild

45:00

and the free market in that regard yeah

45:03

I think this is where the government

45:05

ineptitude is at its

45:09

worst I think that we need to dismantle

45:11

this regulatory state that makes doing

45:15

the right thing impossible so

45:18

specifically the thing that Nome did was

45:22

essentially create

45:25

a Time expectation on when things will

45:29

get permitted and I think he said it was

45:32

like six months the problem is like this

45:34

is what just goes to show you how insane

45:37

the state has become even if you get a

45:40

permit within 6 months and this is where

45:43

I do agree with freeberg like getting

45:45

service people in and being able to

45:46

build something to spec safely is going

45:49

to take three four five six years and

45:52

it's going to be insane and the example

45:56

of the complete incompetence of the

45:57

California state government is if you

46:00

contrast and compare this with how the

46:03

state was able to respond in the North

46:05

Bridge earthquake and the crazy thing

46:08

which I thought was incredible was after

46:10

the 1994 Northridge Earthquake they

46:12

rebuilt I 10 right which is like that is

46:16

like a crazy

46:17

artery in 66 days guys they rebuilt it

46:22

not they permitted it not that they were

46:24

trying to get the California Coastal

46:26

commission to app on it not a Sierra

46:28

Club lawsuit about the Upper Land grous

46:31

they rebuilt it so you actually know

46:34

what's possible in California if if

46:36

Tradesmen are allowed to go to work yeah

46:39

they can build incredibly complicated

46:41

things with safety with speed this is

46:44

where Nome I don't think understands how

46:46

the real Market works because if you

46:49

looked at that example the real question

46:51

you should be asking is well what has

46:52

changed well Technology's gotten way

46:55

better since then the people are more

46:58

skilled there are more people to be able

47:00

to do more of these jobs and so why does

47:02

it only take six months to just get the

47:04

permit when in 120 days you could just

47:06

rebuild an entire Highway similarly why

47:08

aren't we saying that we expect these

47:09

homes built in the next three years get

47:11

these kids back in their homes and back

47:13

in school you know what they did on that

47:16

they offered a

47:17

$200,000 per day early build bonus on

47:20

that program back then so they basically

47:22

the the state declared we need this

47:25

freeway reopened and here's the date it

47:28

was like 144 days and they're like

47:29

you'll get a $200,000 bonus for every

47:32

day under 144 that you deliver it soever

47:35

w show me an incentive I'll show you an

47:37

outcome exactly the really interesting

47:40

thing here is there are regulations that

47:42

this is a unique

47:44

opportunity to put in place Nick if you

47:47

can pull it up there was a home that

47:48

wasn't burned in the Pacific Palisades

47:50

and the architect talked about some of

47:53

the design decisions

47:55

there you know have having Stone scaping

47:57

around your home gravel Etc and using

48:01

these new materials and not having

48:03

overhangs uh which and then having vents

48:06

into your uh addict which is what a lot

48:08

of homes have and the Embers get into

48:10

the addict there's an overhang and

48:12

they're not using and they're they're

48:14

all wood built you know none of this is

48:16

concrete none of it's brick California

48:18

is all wood and so they probably should

48:21

add some regulations about building

48:24

things that are fireproof because if you

48:26

had a 100 homes that were all fireproof

48:28

and built to withstand this that would

48:31

act as a natural break and if you didn't

48:33

have as much vegetation so there's

48:34

probably a series of things that should

48:36

be added here in terms of regulations

48:38

while you're getting rid of some of the

48:40

ones that are slowing you down right um

48:42

but let's pivot over to oh and then

48:44

finally like allowing people to park

48:47

their mobile homes in these places to

48:49

have housing for construction to your

48:50

point mark would be super critical and

48:52

they block that kind of stuff so when

48:54

you need temporary housing in California

48:56

you can't do it

48:57

by the way I want to I want to hear what

48:59

freeberg has to say about insurance but

49:01

let me connect the dots between what you

49:02

said and what he's about to say there

49:05

are three images I just want to show you

49:06

guys and to Bubble this up for everybody

49:09

that isn't necessarily living in

49:11

California and is consumed with what all

49:13

of this means there's a bigger Trend

49:16

across the country that I think is just

49:18

worth putting out there so Nick do you

49:20

want to just show the first chart from

49:22

FEMA so this is basically a graph

49:27

per locality all over the United States

49:29

where FEMA tries to assess the disaster

49:32

risk for living in a given area and what

49:36

you see here is that there's some risk

49:39

in living on the Eastern Seaboard and

49:41

there's a lot of risk in it's growing

49:43

for living on the western Seaboard and

49:45

the two most complicated states that

49:49

have to deal with this are clearly

49:50

Florida and

49:52

California so that's one which is this

49:54

is a problem that isn't just focused on

49:58

this one little area so then if you

50:00

double click a little bit further

50:01

there's a company called core logic they

50:04

publish a lot of real estate data here's

50:06

a chart about the western United States

50:08

that just double clicks into Wildfire

50:11

risk and I was shocked when I saw this

50:13

this is first of all most of California

50:17

this is like Nevada this is Arizona this

50:20

is parts of Texas this is Washington I

50:22

didn't even know the fire risk went up

50:25

that high but this is essentially a lot

50:28

of the western United States and then

50:30

the last chart goes through and it

50:32

actually does core logic does an

50:34

assessment of the value at risk so in

50:38

California it's three4 of a trillion

50:41

dollars that are at about 1.26 million

50:45

homes that are at moderate or great risk

50:49

of fires in Colorado it's about 141

50:53

billion in Texas it's 88 billion in

50:56

Oregon it's 45 billion in Arizona 36

50:59

billion the point is that everything you

51:03

said

51:04

Jason now needs to get Scaled out

51:07

meaning there needs to be a national

51:09

level conversation this can't be a bunch

51:11

of city planners making code and making

51:15

laws in a little municipality yeah

51:17

because that problem what that shows you

51:19

is we have a multi-trillion doll risk to

51:24

a lot of people in the Western United

51:27

States specifically around this issue

51:29

that has to get dealt with by code all

51:32

right really interesting in New York

51:34

finally New York has put into place

51:37

congestion pricing I've been waiting for

51:39

this my entire life here's a math this

51:43

went into effect January 5th this

51:46

congestion pricing concept exists in

51:48

London as everybody probably

51:50

knows basically if you're below Central

51:53

Park which is six stage straight in

51:54

Manhattan and you enter between 5:00

51:56

a.m. and 900 p.m. you're going to get

52:00

you know on your easy pass a charge of

52:02

but $9 cheaper than a bacon egg and

52:04

cheese in Manhattan these days if you're

52:06

going clubbing in Manhattan between 9:00

52:08

p.m. and 5:00 a.m. it's just like two

52:10

bucks it's going to increase to $12 in

52:12

2028 and $15 in 2031 trucks pay more

52:16

taxes pay less the results have been

52:20

awesome weight times to get on the

52:22

island are down 50% across the board

52:25

Lincoln Tunnel down 46% Holland Tunnel

52:28

down 63% Williamsburg Bridge down 35%

52:31

it's just an awesome effort when I live

52:34

there man as a resident the traffic was

52:37

nuts you can have emergency services

52:39

move a lot faster you get rid of noise

52:42

pollution you obviously get rid of air

52:44

quality pollution for ice engines uh

52:47

it's great for cabs great for

52:48

pedestrians and great for bike riders

52:51

the only people really complaining are

52:55

selfish and entitled people who Drive

52:56

their cars into Manhattan that's at

52:58

least my position on it opponents are

53:01

saying it's a money grab for the transit

53:04

authority because the money from this

53:05

goes to make public transportation

53:08

better what do you think Mark you in

53:09

favor of

53:10

this yeah I think more generally I feel

53:15

like since the pandemic what's been on

53:18

my mind a lot living still in San

53:20

Francisco I wanted to start a social

53:22

network called still here uh it's like

53:25

oh you still live here me too some way

53:28

for us to like come out of our houses

53:31

and notice that you're here and I'm here

53:33

but we never leave our homes I walk

53:35

around this city at my own risk and I

53:39

like the cities I feel like cities have

53:42

lost the point like they've lost the

53:43

plot like why we've kind of we still

53:46

live in cities or value them but I feel

53:49

like we have to go back to First

53:50

principles and think like why did we

53:53

move to cities in the first place and

53:54

what was the value supposed to be and is

53:57

that still the deal we're getting or is

53:59

there it have to be a new deal because

54:01

we used to live in a city because it was

54:03

economic we were closer to our job and

54:06

then we lived in a city because there

54:08

was a high density of things that we

54:11

wanted cultural people restaurants and

54:15

the best cities really were the ones

54:17

that are fun to walk around and then we

54:19

got to a point where it's not safe or

54:22

clean to walk around you don't work in

54:24

the city anymore and San Francisco

54:26

started to feel like this gigantic like

54:28

retirement community it's just all these

54:31

people who still live here because their

54:32

kids are in school maybe or they grew up

54:35

here you know a lot of our friends left

54:38

went to Austin and other places and we

54:41

started I I don't know about chamat but

54:43

I think or Dave but I think our family

54:45

has a conversation probably twice a year

54:48

of should we move why haven't we moved

54:50

what's wrong with us and so there's this

54:52

questioning going on around cities and I

54:54

think it's a good question and I think

54:57

cities need to innovate aggressively to

55:01

give to be better they have to compete

55:03

with the other options again they have

55:05

to make it fun to be there fun to work

55:08

there I think it's great that Daniel

55:10

lurry is mayor of San Francisco and he's

55:13

putting smart people around him and

55:16

they're trying to rethink first some of

55:18

attacking these core problems but also

55:21

how do we make San Francisco fun again

55:24

so I love things like congestion pricing

55:27

I think now is the time to try every new

55:30

innovation that you ever thought of and

55:33

see what sticks and and figure out like

55:37

how do you take this this tax not

55:40

literally I mean New York has a big tax

55:42

but this tax on all of us whether it is

55:46

that you can't walk across this city

55:48

that you don't feel safe or that that

55:51

the the good side of it being fun to be

55:54

in you know is that the the deal is off

55:59

and so I think you know and I also what

56:02

I'm hoping Daniel lurry does and other

56:04

smart Mayors is that they Benchmark and

56:07

they say who's doing it really well

56:09

around the world whether it's dealing

56:10

with homelessness or things like

56:13

congestion

56:14

pricing who's who's innovating and doing

56:16

it well and why aren't we doing it here

56:19

I mean I think you got to run these you

56:21

got to reinvent these cities and you

56:23

know sorry to sound cliche but I think

56:25

you got to kind of take a startup

56:27

mentality and say you're not going to

56:28

live on your incumbency anymore you've

56:31

got

56:32

to reinvent this and we can't make

56:35

companies come back to work you know

56:37

come back to the office I mean the

56:38

companies can make their employees but

56:40

it'd be really nice if the employees

56:42

wanted to be there um you know and you

56:45

can't make people live in California so

56:48

I'm in favor yeah chamath any thoughts

56:51

on Mark's point about making cities fun

56:54

again and joyful again sounds like a

56:56

pretty pretty good

56:57

platform I mean I think he's right um

56:59

San Francisco sucks it's trash they

57:02

never go there yeah it's terrible and

57:06

the reason that you don't like to go

57:07

there is it's dirty it's disgusting

57:10

there's crime there's

57:13

Grime everything just sucks there yeah

57:16

freeberg your thoughts uh

57:19

on the Gotham City that did he visit you

57:22

in the Dave did chat ever come to the

57:25

Presidio I have come to your office I've

57:28

come to Dave's office I've come to I've

57:29

gone to Peter's office there but what I

57:32

do is I I don't even go through the city

57:34

I go all the way around I drive all

57:36

through the East Bay up through Berkeley

57:38

and I come I'm just kidding no no no I

57:41

just think that the city is very poorly

57:43

managed and just the quality of many

57:46

cities are poorly managed and I think

57:48

that there's a common through line in

57:50

these poorly managed cities all the

57:53

things that you say there's no will to

57:55

do there's no will to keep crime at Bay

57:59

there's no will to make you know usable

58:01

spaces for people there's no will to

58:03

invest in the Arts so what do you expect

58:06

right there's more money collected by

58:07

these cities but there's just just more

58:09

total grift corruption and waste I

58:12

really like that you got to this will

58:13

point because whether we come back to

58:15

the coastal commission or not or talk

58:18

about California or San Francisco I

58:21

don't think it's really about the red

58:23

tape I think it's about the willpower of

58:26

of the people who are running the tape

58:28

and reading the tape you're 100% right

58:30

did you see this thing I have to read

58:32

this to you because this is really

58:34

stunning I sorry Mark keep going but I

58:37

you're still th% right you know because

58:39

sure okay maybe maybe in one case Gavin

58:43

can override the coastal commission but

58:46

it doesn't matter if you cut their red

58:48

tape by 90% as long as there's any tape

58:51

that they can use the people running

58:55

both the St there and the people on the

58:57

board have stated on their website that

59:00

their policy is managed retreat they

59:02

drew a new map of the California

59:04

coastline if that's their intention

59:07

they're going to look for anything they

59:09

can to to stop and obstruct you so it's

59:12

it's really not like their hands are

59:14

tied because there's so much permitting

59:17

you're you're right they' made a

59:18

decision and the decision in California

59:19

and San Francisco specifically was that

59:21

we're going to cater to fentol dealers

59:24

and junkies and that those people were

59:26

going to get a stipend a hotel room and

59:29

be allowed to take a super drug on the

59:33

streets thousands of people with no

59:36

recourse listen I'm pro drug okay here's

59:39

I sent you guys a I sentation but not

59:42

for fentol and meth these things are

59:43

super drugs yeah let's make it less

59:45

about San Francisco let's talk about

59:47

middle Ohio and let's talk about Ender

59:51

Palmer lucky did this really awesome

59:54

shout up really awesome interview Nick I

59:56

just sent you the link to it he's

59:58

building a new Ohio plant but the

60:02

question and answer from the interviewer

60:05

is exactly what pink has talked about

60:07

which is will the interview

60:09

says was this the only state that could

60:13

guarantee that timeline that you needed

60:15

and here's Palmer's answer was this the

60:18

only state that could guarantee that

60:20

timeline I think that they were the

60:21

state that gave us the best shot of

60:23

hitting that timeline look we've really

60:25

Eng well with jobs Ohio with a lot of

60:27

the politicians here uh not just at the

60:29

state level but the local level you know

60:31

like you said we're hiring 4,000 people

60:32

here in direct jobs a lot more jobs than

60:35

that in a direct or sorry an indirect

60:37

capacity it's the largest single job

60:39

creation event in Ohio history it was a

60:42

state that told us we have the workforce

60:44

we have a million people who are capable

60:46

of working in this facility within a

60:47

45-minute drive we're willing to work

60:49

with you on higher education to help

60:51

train people so they can come in and

60:53

they can work with you uh our customer

60:55

in the the United Air for United States

60:57

Air Force obviously it's a huge presence

60:59

here in the form of right Patterson Air

61:00

Force Base so really all the stars align

61:03

to make Ohio a great place for us to do

61:05

it and to do it fast and speaking

61:06

candidly as someone who is from

61:08

California there's some states that are

61:10

really good at uh pushing you out and

61:13

slowing you down and there's others that

61:14

are great at pulling you in and speeding

61:16

you up and that's what Ohio was

61:19

fantastic yeah states are competing for

61:22

elite

61:23

companies and there's a willpower that's

61:27

that there's an

61:28

intention and you know that if they want

61:31

to make it happen they'll make it happen

61:32

just like Gavin just did right you Gavin

61:35

could have theoretically I don't know

61:38

signed an executive order to override

61:39

the coastal Commission on lot even his

61:42

diesel plant like I don't know why he

61:44

didn't just force that through but if we

61:47

had diesel maybe there'd be more water

61:49

to fight the fire now so I think the

61:51

important thing is to note that cities

61:53

have a right to be what they want to

61:57

be you guys might find this surprising

62:00

but I'm not necessarily of the belief

62:02

that every city should necessarily cater

62:05

to progress and acceleration and

62:08

enterpris and

62:11

industrialization look when you go to

62:12

Pino every summer chth you would

62:15

probably you know stop going and would

62:18

be disappointed if you found out that

62:20

they were building a giant glass tower

62:22

apartment complex and a giant office

62:24

building right by the Portofino Port

62:27

like that's just not the character of

62:29

what that City wants to be and I do

62:31

remember when I first moved to San

62:33

Francisco 25 years ago it was it felt

62:37

like a smaller European like City it

62:39

wasn't overrun with technology companies

62:41

at the time and it was a the charm and

62:44

the quaint nature and the smaller

62:45

buildings of San Francisco that made it

62:47

a beautiful fantastic town I think that

62:50

part of the challenge of San Francisco

62:52

has been this diametrically kind of

62:54

opposed Viewpoint of progress from the

62:56

technology sector and a desire to keep

62:59

San Francisco a small City by the bay

63:02

and that that frustration has manifested

63:04

with a lot of kind of ugliness over the

63:06

the last couple decades in addition to

63:07

obviously all the silly stupid policies

63:09

that just make no sense whatsoever

63:12

they're rooted in people thinking that

63:13

this is a good solution in the short

63:15

term but it creates extraordinary damage

63:16

and harm in the long term separate but I

63:19

do think that cities have a right to be

63:20

what they want to be and I think that

63:22

Dave I think that's just I just want to

63:24

interject as a fellow San Franciscan for

63:26

a long time um just as long is that

63:30

that's the normal tension that's been

63:31

here all along and that kind of makes

63:33

the city culture great and there's you

63:36

want to have this

63:38

creative uh Melting Pot here but there's

63:41

this other side that I think has come

63:44

into play in the last 15 20 years or I

63:47

don't 10 15 years which is this

63:50

progressivism side which we saw Chessa

63:53

you know with and I think it's it's

63:55

different virus that's the ugly

63:58

silliness I meant I was saying but like

64:00

let's put that aside let's put San

64:01

Francisco aside I do think that a city

64:04

can and should be what it wants to be

64:05

does it want to attract and build in

64:07

Industry does it want to attract and

64:09

build enterprising companies or does it

64:12

want to be a small quain town does it

64:14

want to stay you know with no h that's a

64:18

false trade-off the problem is that

64:21

people in government at every level

64:23

sells the former doesn't doesn't

64:26

actually even give them that nor the

64:28

ladder what they give them is a

64:30

dysfunctional hellscape instead well

64:32

Cino doesn't do that right because it

64:34

doesn't make those promises it's not

64:36

asking to elect people that are trying

64:37

to do it not every City's making that

64:40

though why are we lying to everybody and

64:42

why are people falling for these lies

64:44

over and over and over again there's

64:45

there's a moral Clarity in telling the

64:47

truth bino doesn't try to do that but I

64:49

don't think the point is you're saying

64:50

that the cities that that promise that

64:52

and don't deliver that your San

64:53

Francisco promises it right London

64:55

promises it New York promises it these

64:58

things are chaotic messes mhm and it's

65:01

not the trade-off of oh well Parris has

65:03

found a way to stay quaint that was

65:04

never on the ballot some person comes up

65:07

and says I'm going to spend x billion

65:09

dollars a year then another person shows

65:11

up is is actually I'm going to spend it

65:12

a totally different way they both claim

65:15

to have measurements of how it's going

65:17

to be great and my point is none of them

65:20

are rooted in the real world nobody

65:21

knows how to actually run a business all

65:23

the money gets wasted and nothing

65:25

happens it neither stays quaint nor does

65:27

it

65:28

Advance if you were uh living in Los

65:31

Angeles you had the opportunity to have

65:32

Rick Caruso who built so many

65:36

amazing experiences and uh shops for the

65:41

citizens there and you picked Karen bass

65:43

I looked on her Wikipedia page looking

65:46

for any kind of operational position she

65:49

ever felt it's you want to read her

65:51

resume it's tragic I mean just it's

65:54

tragic she I would like I said last week

65:56

not send her to get my lunch because you

65:58

know that order would be totally screwed

66:00

up she is so dis so unqualified and you

66:03

had this perfect person Rick Caruso who

66:07

literally you can't script this he built

66:09

the Pacific Palisades

66:12

Village when the days before there was

66:15

going to be a fire do you know what he

66:17

did he hired water trucks to park on

66:21

those streets you can find the picture

66:23

Nick pull it up and he hired

66:25

firefighters and people to protect the

66:29

village that he

66:30

built Karen bass was in Ghana partying

66:35

taking meetings I don't know what the

66:37

connection between Los Angeles and their

66:39

citizens and what they need to get done

66:41

and Ghana after she promised she would

66:43

not do this Global you know uh Globe

66:46

trotting which she apparently has a

66:47

track record of

66:49

doing she left and stayed there knowing

66:52

this was all coming Rick ruso who you

66:55

didn't vote for

66:57

mayor he did the right thing vote these

67:00

people out recall Karen bass you can do

67:03

it we recall Chessa Boudin you remember

67:05

on this show David Sachs is a a

67:08

republican entrepreneur venture

67:11

capitalist good friend of mine I'll

67:13

introduce you guys if you haven't met

67:14

him he started a recall chesa Boudin

67:17

movement I hired a journalist to cover

67:20

the victims of crime in San Francisco

67:22

Chessa Boudin was out in 18 months you

67:24

can recall these people they're

67:27

unqualified take action start a recall

67:30

they'll tell you oh it's not a good

67:31

thing for continuity whatever these

67:33

people are not qualified they are not

67:35

thinking in your best interest you have

67:37

no choice citizens of Los Angeles but to

67:40

get these people out immediately every

67:42

day they stay in office they are going

67:45

to cause more damage to your family your

67:48

property and your city we call them now

67:52

didn't James Woods post a petition on

67:55

change.org that I saw on Twitter it was

67:57

already I signed it though I don't live

67:59

there and I think it was already over

68:01

like 90,000 you know names I mean you

68:03

you you have power the people of

68:06

California don't understand how much

68:07

power they have when Gavin new I just

68:09

told people on Twitter jamou every time

68:11

Gavin tweets or Karen best Tweets just

68:13

reply with the word resign hundreds of

68:15

people are doing it now shame these

68:17

people into resigning it's a very mature

68:19

way for you to affect you you know what

68:21

it worked in Brooklyn shame worked I

68:24

don't know why people think they have no

68:25

power you can literally just go in there

68:27

and do things and one of the things you

68:29

can do is recall them okay do we have

68:31

anything else except your pical left on

68:33

the docket all right Tik tok's future is

68:35

in question right now the ban is about

68:38

to happen unless the pairing company

68:40

bite dance divest by January 19th which

68:43

is this Sunday Tik Tok will be banned in

68:46

America Google and apple are going to be

68:48

forced to remove Tik Tok from their app

68:50

stores and Oracle Tik tok's cloud

68:52

provider has to stop providing hosting

68:54

services and cut ties assuming bite

68:56

dance doesn't come up with a last minute

68:58

deal tick Talk's only hope is the

69:01

Supreme Court blocking the law what do

69:04

you think Mark do you think it's Chinese

69:06

spyware do you think they should be

69:07

forced to divest what do you think their

69:10

repercussions will be here's what's so

69:12

hard for me about this on the one hand

69:15

part of it seems so obvious from a both

69:18

not just National Security point of view

69:20

but also just fairness like it's insane

69:25

if you think about it that there's a

69:26

Chinese company that's arguing in court

69:30

for protections under our Constitution

69:34

and freedom of speech when none of our

69:38

companies have those kinds of Rights in

69:41

China much less the right to even

69:42

operate there if they're not majority

69:44

controlled or in line like you guys

69:47

talked about with censorship or whatever

69:49

else so on the one hand it seems like a

69:51

no-brainer to me that on this case but

69:55

what you're starting to see come up in

69:57

the last couple days I'm even hearing it

69:59

from one of my daughters who's a major

70:02

Tik tocker is the law of unintended

70:05

consequences here is that we could see

70:08

this band especially if they don't get

70:10

to a deal with somebody and then the 170

70:14

million Americans many younger Americans

70:18

who rely on this all a sudden feel like

70:20

this is censoring them and it's taking

70:23

away their freedom of expression

70:25

question and it could backfire in a lot

70:28

of ways and we're already seeing memes

70:30

where they're going on to these other

70:32

apps like there's this chines book red

70:35

book which is even worse right I think

70:37

that one is owned by the Chinese

70:38

government and so we're driving them

70:41

there and so so I'm the best outcome I

70:44

think would be forced to divest and sell

70:46

to another American company but if that

70:51

doesn't happen I I'm kind of nervous

70:54

about a a real backlash I'm delighted

70:58

jamath that our kids are gonna go out

70:59

and play and have friendships and stop

71:02

scrolling on T talk what you describe

71:04

sound sounds awesome I literally get on

71:08

their iPads and phones when I sometimes

71:11

allow them to have phones and just

71:12

delete the app and then they go get it

71:14

back of course of course K are right

71:16

around it what do you think Cham what do

71:18

you think's GNA happen here I mentioned

71:19

this

71:20

to president Trump and I and I really

71:23

think this is true the reason why there

71:25

was so much bipartisan support for the

71:27

bill as it worked through Congress is

71:29

because I think that they were briefed

71:31

on just how severe the security

71:34

violations of this app are because I

71:36

don't think we've seen anything in

71:38

modern history that is that that is this

71:41

controversial yet be so almost unanimous

71:45

yeah so I think that that's an important

71:47

data point there is something happening

71:49

in the app that they've been briefed

71:51

on that makes them take this posture

71:56

and when I listened to the Supreme Court

71:58

arguments I didn't hear a very

72:00

compelling reason why this ban should be

72:03

overturned so I do agree with Mark that

72:06

we have to find a suitable

72:09

home and I think that we'll probably

72:11

find one and I think that it probably

72:13

happens under the Trump

72:15

presidency and whoever gets their hands

72:17

on it gets their hands on an incredible

72:20

asset that they will be able to buy

72:22

extremely cheaply because there is no

72:24

way that is a fair market value here

72:27

deal for that asset because whoever is

72:29

the buyer is in the total cat bird seat

72:31

and in order to get a deal done with the

72:32

federal government I think you're just

72:35

going to get a basically like a buy at

72:36

now price that's very cheap the other

72:38

thing that I'll say though on a totally

72:39

separate tangent so when I started

72:41

hunting around Tik tok's realtime

72:44

recommendation algorithm was open source

72:46

the learning method yep Nick do you want

72:49

to just throw it up here it's called

72:50

monolith this is an incredible paper the

72:53

cleverness of what these guys have built

72:55

cannot be

72:57

underestimated and what's incredible is

72:59

what they describe in this paper which I

73:01

think frankly a lot of social apps would

73:04

benefit from

73:05

understanding is exactly how they've

73:07

built it to essentially not take this

73:10

more monolithic training approach for

73:11

recommendations but how do you do it in

73:13

real time how do you make it

73:15

collisionless it's

73:17

incredible this paper is a tour to force

73:21

and it just makes me realize that

73:24

despite the

73:27

political maneuvering of this hot potato

73:29

there are some folks that have been

73:30

working in that app or in you know the

73:33

parent company that are truly

73:35

technically talented and it's a it's a

73:37

bit of a shame that they're going to get

73:38

sort of throw the baby out with the bath

73:40

water so to speak so people should know

73:43

that there's some technological

73:45

innovations inside of bike dance and Tik

73:47

Tok that are just truly amazing feats of

73:50

computer science this is an example it

73:53

doesn't though change the fact that I

73:54

think that enough of Congress and the

73:57

rest of the security apparatus know that

73:58

this is a mechanism to spy I think you

74:00

both nailed it isn't China saying though

74:02

that they're going to if this does get

74:05

divested they're going to keep either

74:07

bite dance or Chinese government saying

74:09

we're not going to give over the

74:10

algorithm or are you saying it's open

74:12

source it doesn't matter well this was

74:14

an example of just sort of like

74:15

describing the methodology it's not

74:17

functionally open source yet but I think

74:19

that open sourcing it doesn't solve the

74:21

problem and the reason is so let's just

74:23

say that you're Pegasus was able to

74:25

reverse engineer or build penetration

74:28

attacks into WhatsApp that were

74:31

imperceptible to everybody until it

74:33

happened to Jeff Bezos to other people

74:35

right where you get these state

74:37

sponsored attacks on your

74:39

phone and all of a sudden you're dealing

74:41

with this attack Vector that then you

74:45

call the FBI and they take your phone

74:47

and they help you deal with it's

74:48

happened to a bunch of people that's

74:50

happened to me

74:52

twice so

74:55

the fact that these things can happen

74:57

and then the attack vectors get

74:59

incrementally more and more

75:00

sophisticated it used to be that there

75:02

was a PDF payload then there can just be

75:05

an image payload now it's any payload

75:08

right and you don't even have to click

75:09

to open it and all of a sudden they just

75:11

roots your phone so these are extremely

75:14

sophisticated mechanisms that are

75:17

enabled by a very few very talented

75:19

people talented I'll put in

75:21

quotes but when those talented people

75:23

work on the wrong side you have to act

75:25

so open sourcing it won't solve this

75:27

these these exploits are known to a few

75:31

and I think that if it's known to the

75:33

NSA this is probably what was disclosed

75:35

to folks under confidentiality that

75:37

caused them to get to this conclusion I

75:38

think people just need to wake up and

75:40

realize the Chinese government does not

75:42

have Americans best interest at hard I

75:44

mean the there there is no concept of

75:47

reciprocity as you mentioned Mark that's

75:50

the number one reason to do this number

75:52

two what you pointed out your mouth with

75:53

security and if you think about the two

75:55

biggest imports from China right now

75:58

it's Fentanyl and Tik Tock here's what I

76:00

will say want to make us addicted they

76:02

want to impact our society they want to

76:05

divide us this is an a massive scops

76:09

that's going on it is a scops and it is

76:11

a spyware and it's been proven they

76:13

spied on journalists these are Bad

76:15

actors it has to go I was super excited

76:17

when I saw that there was the potential

76:20

that X would take over Tik Tok and the

76:23

reason I say that is I do think that if

76:26

you can take the video content of Tik

76:30

Tok and the graph of

76:33

creators but have a different app and a

76:36

different substrate be the delivery

76:38

mechanism where you know that it's much

76:39

safer and it's governed by an American

76:42

that to me would be the compromise so I

76:45

think the app should go away but if you

76:48

can somehow give creators a path to sort

76:50

of like restart their content creating

76:53

capabilities on X I think that that's

76:55

actually a pretty good one you guys

76:56

notice in the app freeberg that the left

76:59

hand tab um because you have following

77:01

shop and for you they added a leftand

77:04

tab all the way over that stem and it's

77:07

just science technology engineering and

77:09

math content I've not noticed that yeah

77:13

take a look I don't know if it's just

77:14

mine and they're microt targeting me

77:15

because they know I'm such a fan of stem

77:17

but I think it's for everybody any

77:20

thoughts uh Dave as we wrap on the Tik

77:22

Tok seems like they're going to strike

77:25

deal Chuck Schumer today is calling for

77:26

a delay in the ban I'm sure by the time

77:29

this episode airs something will have

77:30

been worked out to create some space for

77:32

them to get a deal done but I think they

77:34

want to get a deal done and keep Tick

77:35

Tock active in the US seems like both

77:37

the Dems and the Republicans are pushing

77:39

for it so this kind of also leads to

77:41

what I think will

77:43

be the grand deal with China which I

77:46

think will happen in the first six

77:47

months of the Trump Administration I'm

77:48

obviously speculating but it feels like

77:51

there's going to be some workout here

77:54

China is like in a lot of economic

77:57

distress I don't know if you guys have

77:58

followed much on the stories of the

78:00

deflationary challenges that China is

78:03

dealing with Chinese bonds are trading

78:04

at a below 2% yield now which is kind of

78:08

unprecedented and there's this real

78:10

concern that China is in a very

78:12

significant economic deflationary spiral

78:14

so they're in a very weakened position

78:16

economically at the moment the United

78:18

States seems to be in a position of

78:21

strength and I would imagine just given

78:24

the rhetoric

78:25

that this Administration may try to work

78:27

out again some deal that's going to

78:29

provide access to the Chinese market in

78:31

exchange for the US minimizing the

78:33

Tariff effect on Chinese um importers to

78:35

the US so there could be I think

78:38

something you know that eases the the

78:41

tension with China and creates you know

78:43

Mutual economic value in the first six

78:47

months of the administration we'll see I

78:49

mean it's a great Point Trump is a great

78:51

negotiator it's probably his greatest

78:52

strength and he's great at saber

78:53

rattling and we're strong they're weak

78:56

right now a grand deal could be an

78:58

awesome outcome I think this was my one

79:00

of my this was my contrarian prediction

79:02

I think um oh no this was my stock this

79:04

was my stock prediction yeah this was

79:05

like my I picked the Chinese tech stocks

79:07

yeah same I I've been loading up on

79:11

Alibaba a couple Chinese names with the

79:15

same bet hey guys here's a chart for

79:17

you companies are not hiring as many

79:21

mbas this is a recent spike in in

79:24

unemployment among mbas from Top

79:27

Business Schools like Harvard MIT and

79:30

Stanford I'm not sure I think Pinkus did

79:32

you go to Harvard

79:34

FIA guilty guilty so and you've also

79:39

stopped working so you're represented

79:40

here on the chart yeah you still have a

79:42

job I think you still work what what are

79:45

your thoughts on on this are NB out of

79:47

Vogue are they opting out what's your

79:49

theory here well so yes I went there I I

79:52

would say that

79:55

that my all the learning that's helped

79:58

me in my career

80:00

started later after I got out my first

80:03

product management job was really when I

80:05

started learning things that are useful

80:08

to me today I think being there I

80:11

learned a lot about like how to sell to

80:12

Corporate America and some how do they

80:15

think kind of things and then I've gone

80:19

back to HBS for decades trying to

80:21

recruit from there and in the beginning

80:24

they would tell me the kids would when I

80:26

had support.com and it was going to go

80:28

public they said I'd have to be a vice

80:30

president and own 3% of the company to

80:32

take a job with a startup like you and

80:34

this was just before the company went

80:36

public there was a little bit of a

80:38

Renaissance period where some HBS people

80:40

were excited to join Zinga probably

80:42

because they thought it was going public

80:44

but they were a little more risk on at

80:45

that point and now

80:48

everyone's open to jobs my take is that

80:52

there's this fundamental imbalance that

80:56

people go and get an MBA because they're

80:59

drisking their career you go to HBS or

81:02

Stamford and you're guaranteed this High

81:05

salary and this kind of great job for

81:08

life so the reason to go there is to

81:11

take the risk off that's in fundamental

81:15

opposition to where we are in our

81:17

economy in my opinion today or where the

81:19

most interesting sectors are those kinds

81:21

of jobs have dried up and the kinds of

81:24

jobs that I think should be interesting

81:27

to mbas are more like go find a

81:31

ycombinator company and join a founding

81:33

team as the business person or whatever

81:37

and these people are smart and qualified

81:39

but there's this mismatch that they are

81:42

fundamentally risk averse and so they're

81:44

not so when it says they haven't found

81:47

jobs part of it is I think they're going

81:50

they're going to have to fall further or

81:52

this might happen so that a part of it

81:55

they have maybe debt or they have to pay

81:57

back this expensive degree but I think

82:00

that they've got to get to a point like

82:02

I was when I started my first company

82:04

preloader I happily had very little to

82:06

no opportunity cost because I had

82:08

torched my career by that point torched

82:10

my resume I was fired or asked to leave

82:14

every job and so there was kind of no

82:16

turning back so uh can you imagine being

82:20

Mark P's boss I mean that's almost as

82:22

hard as being trats

82:24

yeah I always say I'm a great team

82:26

player as long as I'm running the team

82:28

so right great quarterback yeah but yeah

82:31

so I had no opportunity cost when I

82:34

started my first company which looked

82:36

like it didn't have a chance in hell you

82:38

know of ever making it so you probably

82:40

thought so too then about my company but

82:43

so now the question is maybe what's

82:45

going to happen is we're g to get a new

82:47

equilibrium where these the

82:49

opportunities for these people start to

82:50

come down the guaranteed opportunities

82:53

and a good thing cons firms right they

82:55

all go to McKenzie Boston Consulting

82:57

Group whatever even I just the class I

82:59

taught on Monday at Stanford they said

83:02

everyone wants a job at meta or Google

83:04

and that's the get-rich quick place and

83:07

it's I don't even think that's

83:08

necessarily true anymore and they can't

83:10

get those jobs because those companies

83:12

are now trying to get rid of middle

83:14

management so those jobs have dried up

83:17

you know part of what's in this data

83:19

probably also is a lot of these people

83:22

aren't taking jobs they're not finding

83:25

jobs that meet this High expectation for

83:28

right pay and opportunity so I think

83:30

it's a I think it's a good thing it also

83:33

probably is going to reduce the demand

83:35

to go into these MBA programs because if

83:38

you're thinking well that's not going to

83:40

be my riskof trade and I'm I'm not going

83:43

to be guaranteed 100% so why go in the

83:45

first place and I would advise people

83:48

today you know to depending on what

83:50

industry I'm biased but I'd say go get a

83:53

product management job some where and

83:55

make enough that you can afford to live

83:57

on it and that's going to be the

83:59

beginning of Learning doing these chth

84:02

what what are these things called when

84:03

these NB graduate they raise a bunch of

84:05

money to go buy some real business SE

84:07

fun yeah that's that's not happening

84:09

anymore they yeah that was like the

84:11

thing none of them made money none of

84:12

them made money turns out these NBAs

84:14

don't know what they're doing oh yeah so

84:16

when they take over the business run by

84:17

a family and some matriarch or patriarch

84:20

for 50 years to get it to 25 million

84:24

there's that there's that one deal out

84:25

of Stanford GSB the guy founded assurion

84:29

which is like you know 10 B it's

84:31

billions that guy would have founded

84:33

that company outside of Stanford he

84:35

could have gone to timbuk 2.com

84:37

University disad State and he would have

84:39

been

84:41

fine that speaks that speaks to more

84:44

about the cleverness of that one

84:45

individual not the 99,000 other sh deals

84:48

that been let me say something that

84:49

builds on what Pinkus was saying which

84:52

is I think that this is a interesting

84:54

window into the future of AI in the

84:57

sense that I think what companies are

85:00

internalizing slowly that the first

85:03

place that AI disintermediate is

85:06

actually middle management you thought

85:08

that it was the customer support person

85:11

maybe you thought it was the engineer

85:13

maybe you thought it was the designer

85:14

maybe you thought it was the product

85:15

manager I think those are less true I

85:18

think it's the middle manager it's the

85:20

functionary that basically is acting as

85:24

as essentially

85:25

cartilage inside of this

85:27

organization has less and less to do in

85:31

a place where AI enabled systems are

85:34

making a lot of decisions on behalf of

85:38

businesses and if you take a step back

85:40

how did that evolve well it started

85:43

because of what I mentioned a couple

85:45

weeks ago what the software industrial

85:48

complex will really be known for after

85:50

it is dismantled and

85:52

gone is that it

85:55

created all of these really

85:57

dysfunctional or charts in a company

86:01

meaning when you are a system of record

86:03

that sells something let's make it up

86:06

hey I'm the best general ledger

86:08

software okay and a CEO says great

86:11

Implement that and then all of a sudden

86:13

it's like well you're going to need a

86:15

CFO okay but then the CFO comes to you

86:17

and says well you actually need ahead of

86:19

fpna ahead of this ahead of that ahead

86:22

of the other thing then the CEO says

86:24

okay then those people hire and what

86:26

happens is the software sprawl is really

86:29

what created those jobs somebody else

86:31

says here's a customer relationship

86:33

management thing okay great so then you

86:36

hire a CMO and a cro those people build

86:39

infrastructure so my premise about this

86:43

is if you look inside of any or chart of

86:45

any company you can map those jobs to

86:49

some clunky old piece of software that

86:51

was sold to them maybe it was 10 years

86:53

ago maybe it was 20 years ago but that's

86:56

why orgs are this bulky and now when you

86:59

have all of these new nextg businesses

87:02

that are ripping all of that software

87:03

out the middle management layers that

87:06

used to manage that software are no

87:07

longer necessary that's why you're not

87:09

hiring mbas and I think that this trend

87:11

is only going to grow so I don't think

87:14

that this is a commentary on the people

87:16

the people are probably quite smart but

87:19

I do think that this is a warning sign

87:20

that people should not go and pursue

87:22

these degrees because I think as P said

87:25

you're not taking the trade of least

87:27

volatility you're actually taking on a

87:29

lot more volatility than you probably

87:30

thought you shouldn't be taking on by

87:33

going to a place like Harvard or

87:34

Stanford freeberg any thoughts as we

87:36

wrap here about this NBA chart the

87:39

collapse of the MBA program could be the

87:41

beginning of the unwinding of the um

87:44

higher education

87:46

Market why s

87:49

more I think this is the easiest one to

87:52

discard first in an age of AI and

87:56

Automation and self-learning and I think

88:00

that I I mean I've been thinking a lot

88:02

about I've I've have young kids right so

88:05

my kid my oldest kid is seven years old

88:08

I had to think about that for a sec um

88:10

so many kids now and um isn't it great

88:14

by the way I go through this all I don't

88:16

know I have to go through I have to feel

88:17

like what's my kids birthday Jam has a

88:19

busload of children when you have when

88:20

you have I just had a fifth think five

88:24

and you're at four days no I have five I

88:27

can't I have to really think about all

88:28

the birthdays fourth on the way but yeah

88:30

I would say I I think a lot about

88:33

whether or not it makes sense for my

88:35

kids to go to undergrad and I think like

88:38

about going to classes as an undergrad I

88:40

certainly there's the social experience

88:42

and I I learned a lot in you know kind

88:45

of working at a lab when I was there and

88:47

doing other stuff but those were like on

88:49

the job experiences I do think that the

88:52

social experience and

88:54

practical experience can be gotten

88:57

outside of the college infrastructure

89:00

this Ed educational infrastructure oh I

89:03

I cannot tell you guys how much time I I

89:05

just had a great idea I just had the

89:07

best idea ever the Allin MBA let's start

89:10

our own NBA I don't think I think that's

89:12

the whole point is people should get

89:14

back to kind of an apprenticeship type

89:16

model or a self-learning model

89:17

everyone's got their own personal tutor

89:19

now that's what I think people aren't

89:20

realizing is anything you want to learn

89:23

with

89:25

have you guys heard about what Johnny I

89:26

has done with his kids I'm pretty sure

89:29

they skip college and they just went to

89:32

work directly with him and his design

89:35

firm exactly and like I'm taking him out

89:37

to lunch because I want to interview him

89:38

about it I think

89:41

exactly by the way your daughters and my

89:43

daughters want to start a podcast

89:45

together Pinkus do you know what they

89:47

want to name it oh no I don't I don't

89:50

know if I should say it they I don't

89:52

know I didn't hear the name I think Jam

89:54

daughters in on this as well I think it

89:56

was another friend's child who came up

89:59

with the name they wanted to call it the

90:00

nepo

90:03

Pod Jamal's got a couple kid I'm here

90:06

for it no I think freeberg nailed it on

90:09

this one because I just had arouche

90:12

Selvin who's the pm at Google doing deep

90:15

research on this week in startups

90:17

yesterday and this product is nuts and

90:21

they designed it to basically be one of

90:23

these like million doll or $5 million

90:25

reports you pay for from these

90:27

consulting firms that MBA is right and

90:30

it does a better job it's more accurate

90:34

it's done in 5 to 10 minutes this thing

90:36

fires off have you used deep research

90:38

yet

90:39

Mark no I keep hearing you talking about

90:42

it and I'm such an idiot about this

90:44

stuff it's on the desktop only you can't

90:46

use the mobile and then Gemini how to

90:49

use it and it's only and you have to pay

90:52

20 bucks for it and then grock 2.0 is

90:54

doing something similar when you put

90:55

your query in it decides like all the

90:57

second level queries that would be asked

91:00

then it checks its work so it's firing

91:03

off a spider that goes and crawls 150

91:06

pages in real time then it asks

91:08

questions about the data then it says

91:09

what's missing from this so all the

91:11

questions you would get from your

91:12

manager if you were working at Boston

91:14

Consultant Group where they tell some

91:16

young MBA hey you missed this you miss

91:18

this can you double check this can you

91:20

find double click on this it goes and

91:22

does those followup question questions

91:25

so and now you can do a Cron job where

91:27

you can say take my research and every

91:30

week do a update on it and fill in

91:33

information and tell me the differences

91:35

so instead of just buying a Boston

91:36

Consulting or Mackenzie or whatever

91:38

report you build it and then have it

91:42

auto and the Deep research is coming out

91:43

this it's going to automatically refresh

91:45

it in your Google Docs and then update

91:47

you on what's been

91:48

changed and so and grock is doing it as

91:51

well except grock has all the tweets so

91:53

when you grock now did you see now at

91:55

the top of the page it says and I think

91:57

it's only in the grock app uh the

91:59

dedicated app they just launched last

92:00

week it shows you all the tweets and it

92:03

shows you all the web pages that it

92:05

indexed for that query so this is like

92:09

putting somebody on a week-long research

92:11

project and like I said it takes between

92:13

5 and 10 minutes to do this and it costs

92:15

a massive amount of server capacity to

92:18

do these real time you know two 300

92:20

queries are occurring behind your one

92:23

it's nuts I don't know if you guys have

92:25

been using advanced voice on chat GPT

92:28

much or do you guys any the voice and So

92:31

lately anytime I kind of have come

92:32

across an interesting topic I end up

92:35

finding that I just talk to chat GPT for

92:37

like an hour or two and I'll be like in

92:39

my car like when I'm driving to work or

92:41

going to a meeting or I go for like a

92:44

walk down to the coffee shop I'm like

92:47

okay so tell me about like what happened

92:49

during the Ice Age with respect to how

92:51

quickly sea levels receded and I start

92:54

to gather and like it's it's basically

92:56

like your own personal tutor I finally

92:58

have a best friend

93:00

Mark and I think that basically you end

93:03

up seeing a future where if people are

93:07

put into almost like the real world

93:09

becomes the lab environment that is

93:11

created in a very short window and small

93:14

amount of space in a college environment

93:16

where you're like in some like

93:18

applied scape that applied scape

93:22

basically becomes the real world and

93:24

you've got your college in your ear

93:26

you've basically got your tutors your

93:27

educational experience your capabilities

93:29

that you're learning and you learn more

93:31

in real time and I think that that's

93:33

what AI is going to take us to which is

93:35

basically going to destroy much of the

93:36

value of higher education and I think

93:38

that this MBA piece is probably just the

93:40

first step of many that's going to

93:43

ultimately erode the value ofation did

93:46

you guys see that Fleshlight that can

93:48

actually be synced to a video you're

93:50

watching at CES that's pretty crazy no

93:55

can we go to the UFOs instead of sex

93:57

toys we get it show us the video show us

94:00

the

94:01

video it's also did you get one of

94:04

course he's about to show us from his

94:06

hidden folder I saw it on X it was like

94:09

a it was like a summary of like the top

94:11

10 things from CES and it was a

94:14

flashlight that that would gyate based

94:17

on the actual contortions in the videos

94:20

which one's guest rooms tonight I'm a

94:22

little nervous f interesting Pinkus you

94:24

you get to see two different things here

94:26

when AI comes up as a topic freeberg

94:29

finally has a best friend and chth

94:31

finally has a lover who will do exactly

94:33

what he tells it to it's absolutely

94:36

perfect so Mark lately we've been

94:38

talking we've been talking to all the

94:40

guests about UFOs and UAP welcome to

94:42

conspiracy you have a point of view on

94:45

UFO UAP phenomena I

94:49

do and I guess everyone's everyone else

94:52

say too so I won't be that weird an

94:54

outlier so first of all just say I don't

94:57

believe in uaps UFOs and I don't not

95:00

believe in them and I'm just curious

95:03

about it and I've I've had this theory

95:05

that something is going to happen that

95:07

we're going to break our current

95:10

understanding of physics theory and our

95:12

our physics laws and so I've been

95:14

looking for that moment and one of those

95:17

is around the uaps so I've been more and

95:20

more Curious and digging more and more

95:23

and I started working with a friend who

95:25

made the movie Icarus on the idea of

95:28

like a Netflix docu series I thought it

95:30

should be funny and have somebody like a

95:33

Larry David kind of character narrating

95:35

it but he said maybe maybe he came back

95:38

to me he he's making a documentary about

95:40

the fentol crisis and how it China

95:43

documented how China has dumped it here

95:46

and he said you've got to meet with me

95:48

and this guy I came while he was working

95:51

on that he was interviewing a former DOD

95:53

contractor who had worked for them for

95:56

decades and said you know I've got a lot

95:58

on fentol but I have this whole other

96:00

thing to show you about these uaps and

96:04

he he'll just tell you his claim his

96:06

claim so they came and met with me and

96:09

we had to meet outside and put our

96:11

phones in Fairway bags faay bags faay

96:14

bags so so uh it was a good setup if

96:18

nothing else and he said he claimed that

96:21

in doing running these War games for the

96:25

defense department it inadvertently was

96:28

summoning these uaps these drones and he

96:32

had tons and tons of video of it and

96:34

classified them I'm just telling you

96:36

what he told me let me guess the Drone

96:38

all the Drone videos look up they were

96:40

shot on an mm 1968 camera wait wait wait

96:44

hold on hold on Jason Mark just explain

96:45

this so so the United States is is

96:49

simulating war games yeah and what is it

96:52

doing exactly that's causing these

96:54

drones to show up he did not tell me

96:57

what were the the games what were the

97:00

exact triggers that but he said

97:03

different things would trigger a

97:05

different one and he classified them and

97:08

he said some of them were aggressive

97:10

from an electronics and commun would

97:13

take out electronics and Communications

97:15

wow and he so he was interested and my

97:19

friend was interested in saying okay can

97:21

you put up a couple people um a million

97:25

and a half dollars to recreate this and

97:27

film this and I thought about it I even

97:32

had him go meet with

97:33

Reed and and didn't move quickly and

97:36

then he went dark on us and stopped

97:40

responding and then some friends of mine

97:43

went to a gathering at and what they it

97:49

was on multiple things related to this

97:51

and they said that this guy was there

97:53

and that he summoned one of these they

97:56

kind of said it looked like a large

97:58

drone and my friends showed me some

98:01

pictures that they took which were

98:02

really it was at night they were really

98:03

gra come on stop come on stop I'm not

98:06

making this up I'm just telling you just

98:08

one piece of advice with this

98:09

documentary film stuff you know how to

98:11

make a hundred million dollar in

98:12

documentary films right Pinkus yes start

98:15

with a billion start with a billion

98:17

you're the mark in all of this you're

98:19

just a mark this guy needs a million

98:21

dollars to finish his house or something

98:23

a canyon fair and you're the way to do

98:26

it I didn't the Mark I didn't find it

98:29

okay good so all I'm saying is that I

98:32

think that there's a possibility that

98:34

there is some kind of drone that's

98:37

getting that that is showing up and and

98:41

I'm not saying it's even from you know

98:43

from nonhuman making I believe it I

98:46

believe it I am looking I'll be honest

98:48

because I am looking for a reason to

98:50

believe in this I I'll be honest like I

98:52

know my bias

98:54

I am very sympathetic when I hear these

98:56

stories I listen way too long you know

99:00

to the podcast on this stuff I watch are

99:02

you donating to Alex Jones no but are

99:05

you a subscriber no but I I okay how

99:08

about

99:09

this are we convinced that there has

99:12

been absolutely

99:14

zero unidentified object inside some

99:19

Vault Buri deep somewhere

99:23

either the us or national state

99:25

government somewhere are we guaranteed

99:27

that the odds of that are zero and I say

99:30

no it's not let's do our fir uh what is

99:33

it fmy

99:34

paradox freeberg fmy paradox why aren't

99:37

the if there if there are aliens why

99:39

haven't we seen them quick around the

99:42

I'm not I'm not saying done my point on

99:43

this there is a UAP that is that has

99:46

been unidentified that is sitting inside

99:48

some Vault somewhere in in a state

99:50

government in the world so your position

99:53

is the aliens have come no stop saying

99:57

you but you you you you make the whole

99:59

thing seem ridiculous when you say

100:00

aliens I'm not saying that I'm saying

100:02

okay visitors from another planet no

100:04

stop with the visitors just let's just

100:06

put it this way a

100:08

vehicle that doesn't have to have

100:10

anything inside it a vehicle could be

100:12

autonomous and

100:13

unmanned okay is are the odds exactly

100:16

zero

100:19

no but with billions of planets it would

100:23

you know logic would make you think that

100:25

one has come already right that's with

100:28

there billions of inhabitable planets

100:30

and species out there there must have

100:32

somebody must be ahead of us but the

100:34

other conclusion of ferm's paradox is we

100:37

statistically are the highest a society

100:40

has ever gotten and we have yet to send

100:44

our probes out to the rest of the

100:45

universe although we have send probes

100:47

freeberg to Uranus all right everybody

100:51

thanks for tuning in this is all

100:53

disad

100:57

disad I need I need a I need

101:00

um young Spielberg to make us a a jingle

101:03

for disad

101:05

a.com Mark Pinkus you're amazing thank

101:08

you for fitting right in with your

101:10

besties uh and top bro on the baby

101:13

congrats congrat looking forward to

101:15

seeing you this weekend all right and we

101:17

will see oh and by the way just

101:18

programming note we're all going to be

101:21

at at the inauguration various parties

101:23

uh this weekend and we will be doing

101:26

some live episodes of the Allin podcast

101:29

probably on Sunday Monday time frame and

101:31

we will see you on the live stream go to

101:35

youtube.com subscribe to the Allin

101:37

podcast put on the notifications the

101:38

bell and then follow us on x.com the

101:41

Allin podcast and then again subscribe

101:44

and then just turn on notifications

101:45

you'll get a notification when we go

101:47

live on those two platforms we'll see

101:49

you all next time byebye love you boys

101:51

byebye

101:53

will let your winners

101:55

ride

102:00

Rainman we open sourced it to the fans

102:02

and they've just gone crazy with it love

102:05

queen

102:06

[Music]

102:12

of

102:14

[Music]

102:15

Besties my dog Tak

102:18

driveways man oh man myit

102:23

we should all just get a room and just

102:25

have one big huge orgy cuz they're all

102:27

this useless it's like this like sexual

102:28

tension that they just need to release

102:36

somehow we need to get

102:38

merch

102:41

[Music]

102:45

all I'm going

102:48

[Music]

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