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Max Hodak: Average Is Not Good Enough

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Max Hodak: Average Is Not Good Enough

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1696 segments

0:07

My name is Max Hodak. I'm the CEO of a

0:10

company called Science. Um, we're going

0:13

to talk a little bit about

0:14

infrastructure at startups. So, I've

0:16

spent most of my life working on brain

0:18

computer interfaces. This is almost 20

0:20

years ago now. Um, I started my career

0:22

as an undergrad working in a lab at

0:24

Duke. This is from our very first

0:26

Society for Neuroscience conference. The

0:27

experiment I was working on back then

0:29

was if you put electrodes in the brain

0:31

of a monkey and then give a monkey a

0:32

joystick and you record the neural

0:34

activity as it's playing a game. If you

0:36

make the joystick say go the cursor go

0:38

sideways when the when they push forward

0:40

on the joystick which does the brain do?

0:41

Does the brain represent the joystick or

0:43

the screen or something else? Um there

0:45

turns out that there are neurons that do

0:46

both. At our company science our main

0:49

product is a retinal prostthesis. It's a

0:51

chip that's implanted under the retina

0:53

in the back of the eye to restore vision

0:55

to patients that have gone blind due to

0:56

loss of the rods and cones in their eye.

0:58

Um on the left, this is one of our

1:00

patients on the cover of Time last uh

1:02

last November. Um on the right, you can

1:04

see there's a picture of the implant

1:05

with the glasses. So every little one of

1:08

those hex grids that you see on the

1:09

implant is essentially a solar cell. So

1:12

when this is implanted under the retina,

1:13

the patient wears glasses that have a

1:15

camera that sees the world and a laser

1:17

projector that projects onto the

1:18

implant. And wherever the when it

1:20

projects the image in infrared, wherever

1:22

the light is absorbed on the implant, it

1:24

creates a little electric field to

1:25

excite the retina, thereby directly

1:27

bypassing the dead rods and cones to

1:29

stimulate um this visual signal back

1:31

into the into the retina at the first

1:33

possible opportunity. And this is this

1:35

is pretty this is a pretty cool product.

1:36

It finished major clinical trials uh

1:39

last year. It's been in three clinical

1:40

trials now. Um was covered in the the

1:43

BBC last fall. One of our patients

1:45

finished a 300page novel with the device

1:47

and mailed us the book. But I'm I'm not

1:49

going to talk about this work for the

1:51

most part for the next 30 minutes. Um,

1:52

we're going to talk about infrastructure

1:54

and lessons. I mean, this is startup

1:55

school. Maybe there's some things that

1:57

you'll find useful in your company. So,

2:00

Picasso uh was noted for saying that

2:02

when art critics get together, they talk

2:04

about form and structure and meaning.

2:06

And when artists get together, they talk

2:08

about where to buy cheap tarpentine.

2:10

This is also often phrased as amateurs

2:13

talk strategy, professionals talk

2:14

logistics. a quote from a guy that the

2:16

United States named a tank after.

2:19

And there are so there are surprisingly

2:21

few lessons that are really broad across

2:24

companies. Typically the experience of

2:26

running a startup is you're just looking

2:27

at kind of a continual stream of facts

2:29

that hit your desk every day and you're

2:31

trying to make the best local decision

2:32

that you can in the for those facts and

2:35

if it looks inconsistent over weeks

2:37

that's usually the way to go. But there

2:38

are a couple topics that keep kind of

2:40

very repeatedly coming up that are kind

2:43

of universal experiences at least for uh

2:45

deep tech companies which is the thing

2:47

that I I kind of know most of my

2:49

experiences in not just pure software.

2:52

Um and so there are things that keep

2:53

coming up like buying things. Um so your

2:57

first reaction might be that if you do

3:00

software you don't need to buy things.

3:02

It will be me alone in an empty room

3:04

with some computers writing software and

3:07

this is going to be how we build a

3:08

company. And if this is you, yes, you

3:10

have figured out a reason why VCs love

3:12

funding software and why they've done so

3:14

much of it for the last 25 years. But if

3:16

you do anything other than pure

3:17

software, you will be buying many many

3:19

thousands of things. This is us uh about

3:21

I think six months into the company. Um

3:24

and it's a little tough to make out.

3:25

There are a lot of computers. There's

3:26

also a bunch of microscopes and other

3:28

electronics and 3D printers and resin

3:31

and PCBs. You're buying things really

3:33

continuously. And so it might sound

3:36

really obvious, like a really basic

3:37

question like you like you surely just

3:39

buy things. Um, so for you as the

3:41

founder, you can use a credit card.

3:43

Credit cards work great. You can buy

3:44

lots of things with credit cards. You

3:46

can also send a wire transfer. The

3:48

question is, how does your 17th employee

3:51

buy things? Do they have a credit card?

3:53

Let's say you hand out credit cards to

3:55

all of your employees and tell them to

3:58

buy what they need. So, you're going to

4:00

you start getting messages like this.

4:02

Um, and

4:05

the and you think like, you know, I care

4:07

about burn. We have to spend

4:08

efficiently. I'm going to approve all

4:10

the purchases as they happen. And you

4:12

get a message like this. And then you

4:14

think, $3,000 sounds like a lot for a

4:16

power supply. Do we need a $3,000 power

4:18

supply? What if we get one from an

4:19

auction? Like, in 3 days there's an

4:22

auction. maybe we'll get it for half

4:23

off. We can get it in two weeks. But

4:25

then you also remember that you've hired

4:26

some very highly paid and talented

4:28

employees. And are you saying they can't

4:30

get the tools that they need? That

4:32

you're spending $100,000 a week. If you

4:34

wait a week to get a power supply half

4:36

off, you have certainly dwarfed any

4:38

possible benefit from getting it. And

4:39

then, you know, and if they were

4:41

anthropic, they're not going to be

4:42

getting hassled over a $3,000 purchase.

4:43

They're just going to have a power

4:44

supply. And so what you realize is not

4:46

only is this very hard to keep burn

4:48

under control, but also it's just this

4:50

is the inappropriate place to exercise

4:52

spending review. Spending review has to

4:54

come earlier. You have to have some

4:55

concept of budgeting. It's not really

4:56

about even just the payment rail of

4:58

buying a thing. It's how do you

4:59

understand the bucket of money that you

5:00

have. And I don't want to be making the

5:02

$1,500 power supply versus $3,000 power

5:04

supply trade-off. They need to

5:06

understand the resources that they have

5:07

so they can make trade-offs within those

5:08

available resources. So, you set up a

5:11

procurement system and now your highly

5:13

paid employees are spending their days

5:14

clicking around B2B enterprise ass. And

5:17

it turns out that from the time that

5:18

they place an order for a power supply,

5:19

it takes two weeks to arrive because you

5:21

can't actually buy that with a credit

5:22

card. You have to set up an account with

5:24

the vendor and deal with insurance and

5:25

certification paperwork and get an

5:27

account set up. And they have to

5:28

generate a quote so that you can

5:30

generate a purchase order so that you

5:31

can generate an invoice. And now

5:33

everyone's upset that things are taking

5:34

super long to get ordered. And and so

5:36

this actually really requires like a

5:38

like this is a living organism. I like

5:40

when people move from academia to

5:42

startups, I think one of the reactions

5:44

that people often have is like why are

5:46

there people whose job there is to

5:47

purchase things? Surely I can just buy

5:49

things. But absolutely there are people

5:50

whose job is to buy things. From the

5:52

time that you submit the order, going

5:53

back and forth with the vendor to set

5:55

all of this up is very timeconuming and

5:57

it can easily stretch out. It takes like

5:58

active management to metrics to cause

6:00

this thing these things to go fast. And

6:03

I think part of why like when we think

6:05

about this, we have a a reputation I

6:06

think of often being very quick and

6:08

people are unsure like how does that

6:09

happen? It is mostly not that we are

6:11

smarter. It is infrastructure like this.

6:12

That is the the like how speed is built.

6:15

So now people can buy things at least

6:17

you can keep overall burn under control.

6:19

Now you know that you're not going to

6:20

exceed some large amount of spending

6:21

every month. And then you realize that

6:23

that wasn't really the problem. You

6:24

could figure out your runway. The

6:25

problem is attribution is when you're

6:28

doing whether you're working on rockets

6:29

or cars or drugs or brain computer

6:31

interfaces or um all like anything that

6:34

involves dealing with the real world,

6:36

you realize that one of your other

6:38

problems is that you're buying stuff in

6:39

bulk. Like we buy gases from argon to

6:42

silene to nitrogen

6:44

um to resins to media and then we we buy

6:47

these things in bulk and we part them

6:48

out to lots of different experiments.

6:51

Um, now when you do this, it breaks this

6:54

attribution is pretty difficult. And so

6:56

if nobody knows how much an experiment

6:58

costs, like every time you like grow up

7:00

a new cell line or every time we make a

7:02

new a new probe in in the fab, how much

7:04

does that loop cost? Nobody knows.

7:07

Therefore, experiments are free. Um, it

7:10

doesn't cost dollars. It costs media.

7:11

And media comes from the fridge. And we

7:14

want to know what how do we price a

7:15

thing that we make? Like we make a bunch

7:17

of things in volume in the foundry. We

7:18

want to know what can we sell that for?

7:20

That requires all of these spreadsheets

7:22

to get an estimate of the pricing. And

7:24

there's opinions in here. Like these are

7:25

not all facts like how much do you

7:26

include rent? How much do you include

7:28

depreciation of the tools? This comes

7:29

with opinions about your future volume.

7:31

All of this is required to understand

7:33

not just what you should charge but also

7:34

what you're spending and what your

7:35

runway is. And so to deal with this,

7:37

we've built a huge amount of internal

7:40

software at the company um for for

7:43

managing this. One of the first things

7:44

that we did is almost everything that

7:46

you can do in the company is a button

7:48

somewhere in the software. We call it

7:50

Helix, including stuff like purchasing.

7:53

But because this extends all the way

7:54

through to manufacturing where we have

7:56

every step that happens in the lab in

7:58

the database, we can correlate all of

8:00

this through and get this information.

8:02

And these like again, so it turns out

8:04

that for every iteration of a wafer that

8:07

we make, in this case, for this

8:08

protocol, it cost $40,000. This is like

8:11

a lot of money. And you like you might

8:15

have raised let's say you raised $20

8:16

million in a series A you think you need

8:19

four years you need 20 people in my

8:21

experience about half the burn is

8:22

headcount so that's so let's say 20

8:25

people that's probably three three and a

8:28

half that's like three million a year in

8:29

revenue that's half of your burn um you

8:32

need 20,000 square feet about $4 a

8:34

square foot that's another 750,000 to a

8:37

million a year so now suddenly you've

8:39

got really it's a $3 million a year

8:40

research budget for three or four That

8:42

goes way faster than you think. But

8:44

again, your team see saws um just saw

8:47

that you raised a larger amount of money

8:49

than they've ever seen in their lives

8:50

and they think that the $3,000 power

8:52

supplies are free. Um this is pretty

8:54

important. This is a thing that actually

8:55

this infrastructure actually determines

8:57

success or failure in many companies.

9:00

Another universal experience is hiring.

9:03

Um so hiring also I think really

9:07

separates the successes from the

9:09

failures. Startups usually don't come

9:11

out of nowhere. I think the best

9:12

companies in my experience come from

9:15

what might be characterized as scenes.

9:16

There's like a moment that enables a new

9:18

company to be born and there's a bunch

9:20

that comes together that really creates

9:21

this like unique nucleation for the new

9:23

company. And once that moment is passed

9:25

because some some company has has

9:27

executed on it or just the time has

9:29

gone, it's kind of tough to get back.

9:31

And so the the best hiring comes from

9:33

within your network, people that you've

9:34

worked with before, you know are good.

9:36

Um, and the extended version of that is

9:39

to hire from the network that produced

9:40

the startup. There's usually some

9:42

extended scene that the thing came out

9:43

of. There's a bunch of co-founders that

9:45

come together out of that crystallize

9:46

out of that, but then there's an

9:48

extended community and that should

9:49

really be the target of your initial

9:50

marketing. Um, these are the people that

9:52

already speak your language, already

9:53

familiar with it, but there's never

9:55

enough of them to really fill an entire

9:57

company. You have to hire from the

9:58

general public. Um, so there's different

10:02

companies hire in different ways.

10:03

There's different processes that make

10:05

sense to different founders. this is the

10:06

thing that really is going to be matched

10:08

to who the founders are and how they

10:09

view the world. Um, and there's no one

10:11

right answer, but this is a thing where

10:14

you need a really defined process. There

10:16

is no right answer, but a wrong answer

10:18

for sure is not having something that

10:20

you do very religiously as a company.

10:22

Um, and this is an area where reality

10:24

has a surprising amount of detail. It

10:26

seems really straightforward like, oh,

10:27

you'll you like have a job board, you'll

10:28

get applications, you'll review them.

10:30

This very quickly becomes a huge huge uh

10:33

drag on the rest of your team. You could

10:34

easily spend almost all of your time

10:36

recruiting if you're not doing it

10:37

efficiently to get a to suboptimal

10:39

outcome. And so for us again, we've

10:42

built a lot of software to do this.

10:44

There are four steps to our process. The

10:46

first is that we've built a a software

10:49

interface for users to apply for

10:50

applicants to apply online where we can

10:52

capture some structured information from

10:54

them upfront um including the ability to

10:57

apply to multiple jobs um in parallel.

11:00

And so we originally used a a commercial

11:02

applicant tracking system. We've moved

11:04

this to our internal tools. Um, and one

11:07

of the reasons we did that is because

11:08

this allowed us to do something that we

11:09

couldn't find in any of the commercial

11:10

ATS's. So, when we the first step of our

11:13

process when users apply is it goes to

11:15

companywide voting. Um, this is a

11:18

heavily redacted uh version of of the

11:21

internal interface, but hopefully you

11:22

can make out the idea of what's going on

11:24

here. So in the the the applicant's

11:27

resumes in the middle, we collect a

11:28

little bit of other structured

11:29

information, but the most important

11:31

thing is on the the far right you see

11:33

this there's a question like how would

11:36

you vote for this candidate? Are they

11:37

known good, strong, yes, yes, no,

11:39

strong, no. And so when a person

11:41

applies, the system picks out seven or

11:43

eight current employees that it thinks

11:45

look something like their backgrounds

11:47

and it pings them all for votes. And so

11:49

we can distribute the voting across a

11:51

lot of the company for this initial

11:53

review, which is essential because if

11:54

you're doing anything cool, by the time

11:55

you get a couple years into it, that top

11:57

of funnel is overwhelming. And if you

11:59

place any in any small group of

12:01

employees or any one person in the way

12:03

as a bottle bottleneck on this, they

12:04

will absolutely bottleneck the whole

12:06

rest of the organization. And um it's

12:09

also you want to I think average over

12:11

judgment. I think there's different

12:13

people that are better or worse at

12:14

hiring and have different perspectives

12:15

on what you're looking for at that

12:17

stage.

12:18

And the so in the beginning as the

12:20

founder you can meet with everybody and

12:22

you should that will take you quite far.

12:23

You should definitely interview

12:24

everybody for quite a while but even

12:26

beyond that you still want to you want

12:28

ways to average over the judgment of the

12:30

rest of your team and voting mechanisms

12:32

are usually a really good way to do

12:33

that. So these are these are our actual

12:36

statistics over the last couple years.

12:38

So 17% of the top offunnel applications

12:41

that we get go to a phone screen. Again,

12:44

that first initial app voting stage is

12:46

drawn from a companywide pool so that we

12:48

can get fast we can get the voting done

12:50

quickly within usually 24 48 hours and

12:52

not bottleneck that on any small group

12:54

of people. The phone screen is again

12:57

drawn from a companywide pool of people.

12:59

This is not team specific. This is a

13:01

companywide bar really looking for three

13:03

things. Judgment, horsepower, and

13:05

agency. Like if we throw you into a

13:07

complex vaguely defined situation, will

13:09

you tell tend to make good decisions or

13:11

will you create diplomatic incidents?

13:13

Like do you have the like do you meet a

13:15

just a basic hurdle for technical

13:17

competence and like demonstrated ability

13:19

to learn things? And do you are you

13:21

effective at causing the world to look

13:23

like you wish it were? Like how how does

13:25

your life look or not like whatever

13:28

ambitions you had? And like do you have

13:29

specific ambitions for your life? And so

13:31

this we can distribute over the entire

13:32

company and then half of those tended to

13:35

go to homework. Um ideally we'd be using

13:39

entirely AI resistant homeworks now. So,

13:41

our favorite types of homeworks are

13:42

things that um don't saturate, have a

13:45

very high ceiling, and are naturally

13:47

scorable to two or three numbers that we

13:49

can put on a plot so that when we get

13:52

responses to homeworks, we can just plot

13:53

them all and it's very obvious when

13:55

someone has really beaten the PTO

13:57

frontier and we otherwise don't care

13:59

whatever AI models they use like that

14:01

can make you better. um in cases where

14:02

that's not possible uh for homework

14:04

right now we've we're doing increasing

14:06

number of technical phone calls or pra

14:08

on-site practical tests but ideally we

14:10

would have an AI resistant take-home uh

14:12

for each of these had a really

14:14

interesting take on the AI resistant

14:15

homework where they've had a couple

14:17

tasks where there's like it's like uh

14:20

the GPU kernel optimization like what is

14:22

the minimum number of cycles you can get

14:23

it down to and this is naturally

14:25

adjusting like the hurdle for a while

14:27

was I think it was sonnet's performance

14:29

if you could beat that then you could

14:30

get an interview I think that there's a

14:32

bunch of ways to construct a resistant

14:34

homeworks.

14:35

And then by the time you get to the

14:37

interview, it is important that you have

14:38

a from there reasonably high like at

14:40

least 25% conversion to an offer because

14:43

otherwise it is just you're going to

14:44

waste too much of your time doing

14:46

on-sites for employees that don't

14:48

convert. You can't get that down. Um,

14:51

and so this is there's four steps to

14:53

this. Initial voting, the phone screen,

14:55

homework, and a full interview. And this

14:58

is as far as like from what my

15:01

experience,

15:03

this is the minimum set of information

15:04

that we need to make a like a full

15:06

decision. And I don't think that there's

15:08

a a more efficient way to elicit this.

15:11

Like I don't think there's a smaller

15:12

number of steps that we could use. So

15:13

this has become our process. So you're

15:15

hiring people, they're coming into work,

15:18

they're starting, you're incurring

15:19

payroll. Um, but how do you know that

15:21

you're good at this? Like eventually

15:22

you'll get feedback from the market on

15:25

how good you are at hiring because the

15:26

company will work or it won't. Like your

15:27

team will be capable of accomplishing

15:29

the stuff that you've set out and

15:30

they'll help you course correct through

15:31

that. But this is a very very long

15:33

feedback and it's very poorly behaved

15:36

loss function. Um and so it's kind of

15:38

your job as management to design

15:39

synthetic gradients that allow you to

15:40

find out earlier and along the way how

15:42

recruiting is going and if you need a

15:44

course correction.

15:46

A conventional answer to this is the 360

15:49

review process. So once a year you send

15:51

out a lot of forms, you gather up a

15:53

bunch of feedback uh around each

15:55

employee, you set up a bunch of meetings

15:57

with HR and with the various managers

15:59

and you can do the conventional

16:00

performance review cycle. Um which based

16:03

on my experience is like this is a a

16:06

very disruptive process that doesn't

16:08

tend to surface issues that you don't

16:10

already know about but haven't acted on

16:11

because you knew that thing was there.

16:12

But firing people is hard and so pe like

16:14

people drag their feet on it and this

16:16

this is kind of reinforcing things you

16:17

already knew and it only happens once a

16:19

year. Um maybe twice a year if you split

16:22

up the company into into cohorts. But I

16:24

mean I think really what would be nice

16:26

to have is a signal that gives you this

16:29

kind of natural feedback from across the

16:31

company about who's good and who isn't

16:33

and what's working and what's not in a

16:35

way that is largely unbiased and is more

16:37

continuous. Imagine if you could get

16:38

feedback kind of every few weeks on

16:41

where there are issues and where things

16:42

are going well. And so the process that

16:45

I had developed um which I've now used

16:46

for the last really six or seven years

16:49

is every few like every couple weeks

16:52

every four to six weeks it's not that

16:54

often people around the company get

16:56

pinged with a question through the

16:57

software through Helix and it's there's

16:59

a form but really there's only one

17:00

question that really matters which is

17:03

knowing how this person turned out would

17:05

you vote again today for their hire?

17:07

It's the same questions we use on the

17:08

initial voting. Um, and so you'll get a

17:10

prompt to say like this person you work

17:12

with like how would you vote for their

17:13

hire today? And then what we can do is

17:15

we construct a graph over the company of

17:18

all of the feedback. And so the basic

17:20

intuition is that like your vote should

17:23

be weighted more highly if everybody

17:25

else has rated you highly. And the

17:28

astute may notice that this looks a lot

17:30

like the original Google algorithm page

17:32

rank which is an idea called IGEN vector

17:34

centrality where you can create a weight

17:36

over the over the graph by looking at

17:38

how the graph points together. This is a

17:40

little bit different than actually

17:41

literally I vector centrality but it's

17:43

very similar and so we call this

17:44

technique IGEN reviews and I've become

17:47

convinced that this is more or less the

17:48

right way to do performance reviews.

17:50

There's some other tricks that you have

17:51

to apply to get this to work really

17:53

well. For example, um we apply dropout

17:55

where we'll run a thousand iterations

17:57

where we'll randomly remove some

17:59

percentage of the edges each iteration.

18:02

And then when you look at the

18:03

distribution of scores that you get out

18:04

of that, if you see additional peaks,

18:05

for example, this is a clue that there

18:07

could be voting clicks that need further

18:08

investigation. But as a whole, this is

18:11

it distributes the judgment across the

18:13

company, updates more or less

18:14

continuously with about a month lag, and

18:17

gives you just way better insight into

18:19

what's going on really around the

18:21

company.

18:22

So this is and it and it also totally

18:24

gets rid of that kind of traumatic super

18:26

heavy once a year HR driven performance

18:28

view process. Um so the the the point of

18:33

this talk is not the spec is not that

18:36

you should use this in particular

18:37

although you should consider it and if

18:38

you're if you actually roll this out at

18:39

your company um you can email me and

18:41

I'll send you a doc with more specific

18:43

tricks on how to actually get this to

18:44

work well. But the the real theme of the

18:46

talk is that rate of iteration separates

18:50

success from failure. And if you can get

18:53

a fast iteration loop, that really

18:54

overcomes many other things you're going

18:56

to run into. And this effect is so

18:58

severe. I mean, if you can learn one

19:01

thing every week and there's a

19:02

competitor that's learning a thing every

19:04

month, they will they will never matter.

19:06

Um o overwhelmingly if there's you're

19:09

looking at different way like two

19:10

different approaches to solve a problem.

19:11

If there's one that allows you to

19:13

compound like in half in a much shorter

19:15

amount of time than the other, even if

19:16

the other approach has significant um

19:19

like redeeming characteristics, you

19:21

should really consider going with the

19:23

shorter iteration cycle because the

19:24

compounding effect is just so dramatic.

19:27

And so speed determines success and

19:30

failure and speed is determined by

19:32

infrastructure. This is driven by really

19:33

boring sounding things like how well do

19:35

your purchasing and recruiting and

19:36

spending processes work. This is as

19:38

important as how well do you understand

19:40

understand the object level technical

19:42

content of the thing that you're

19:43

building. I see companies founded by

19:45

just like stellar pedigree scientists

19:47

and engineers all the time that die on

19:49

the vine because this execution is tough

19:51

to follow through and your job is to

19:53

organize. It's like it's it's uncommon

19:55

that these deep tech companies that fail

19:56

because the technology doesn't work.

19:58

They fail because once you end up with

19:59

this organization of hundreds of people

20:01

and thousand hundreds of thousands of

20:02

square feet of physical infrastructure,

20:04

you haven't built the systems to manage

20:05

that. becomes unwieldy and then you

20:07

can't make like you can't connect

20:09

strategy to execution.

20:11

Um so we we heavily lean towards things

20:16

that have shorter iteration cycles um

20:18

kind of etc like all else equal. Um but

20:21

that doesn't that's not a blanket rule

20:23

like there are no blanket rules in

20:24

startups. You're looking at each new

20:25

fact pattern that comes in as its own as

20:28

its own unique thing and then making

20:30

decisions that make sense to you. And

20:32

one of the harder lessons as a startup

20:34

founder, one of the harder things I

20:36

think to to really deal with is the fact

20:38

that you cannot delegate your judgment.

20:40

As as the CEO, you must always make

20:42

decisions that make sense to you, no

20:43

matter how much momentum or inertia

20:46

alternatives seem to have. Um, so in

20:48

school, if you're let's say there's like

20:50

somebody sitting next to you and you

20:51

cheat on the test by looking over at

20:52

them, you'll your grade will like all

20:55

else equal, your grade will be dragged

20:56

towards the average of the class. That

20:58

is not good enough to succeed in

21:00

startups. you have to do things that

21:02

like are at the long tail that you're

21:04

you the successful companies are the

21:06

exceptions by becoming an average that

21:08

is not good enough. And so um in order

21:11

to succeed your judgment has to be

21:12

differentiatedly good. Now the reality

21:15

might be that you don't know if your

21:16

judgment is good yet. And so um one way

21:20

or another you will have to find out and

21:22

that means making decisions that make

21:24

sense to you even when you are totally

21:26

alone in that realization.

21:28

um that is the only way to get to to the

21:30

really big outcomes. Now, it's not that

21:32

often that everyone else will think one

21:34

thing and you'll be like, "You're all

21:35

totally wrong." But it is a really eerie

21:38

feeling like you'll get to a point four

21:40

or five years into the company when

21:41

there's hundreds of millions of dollars

21:42

on the line and there's some really high

21:44

stakes decision and only you can make it

21:46

and then you will look around for advice

21:48

because like in the beginning you'll get

21:49

lots of like there's a bunch of things

21:50

that are easily advised or easily

21:51

figured out but you'll get to a key

21:52

point years in and you'll look for

21:54

advice and there is nobody to ask and at

21:56

that point you must have a really good

21:58

sense of the limits and boundaries of

21:59

your judgment. That is a very eerie

22:01

feeling and you have to be able to

22:02

commit to it regardless. Now, the good

22:05

news is that in my experience, it's very

22:07

difficult to actually get stuck. Um, you

22:09

can get yourself into trouble and the

22:12

action space is always larger than it

22:14

appears. Um, you can kind of no matter

22:17

what happens, there's usually like when

22:18

you get like I think it's very easy to

22:20

try and anticipate all kinds of problems

22:22

that you'll never actually run into. Um,

22:24

and then you go and do it and then you

22:26

get to a point where the system like you

22:28

run into some real limitation. There's

22:29

always a hundred ideas about how to make

22:31

it better. This is sometimes phrased as

22:34

action produces information. Um, this

22:37

idea is is I think much deeper than it

22:39

sounds. Like the so in physics there's

22:41

this there's this quantity called

22:42

action. And so if I throw a ball and it

22:45

follows a ballist like a like a

22:47

parabolic trajectory that trajectory is

22:50

totally set like when it leaves my hand

22:52

unless it gets blown by wind some other

22:54

like action is exerted on it. It will

22:56

follow this ballistic trajectory which

22:57

is in this sense like kind of an

22:59

information minimizing trajectory. I can

23:00

say it just followed it was ballistic

23:02

that totally determines it. If it

23:05

something else happens you had to spend

23:06

some energy time to cause that cause

23:08

that to happen. And so when whenever you

23:10

exert like action into the universe that

23:14

creates information like in a like in a

23:15

very fundamental sense and whenever you

23:18

get stuck like you have to you have to

23:20

start like injecting action producing

23:23

entropy. Um and this is this produces

23:26

some fairly counterintuitive effects.

23:27

Like I've seen situations where the

23:30

company is stuck in a deep local minimum

23:32

and there's someone who is great in many

23:35

ways but it's just the wrong fit for

23:36

what that company needs at the time and

23:38

removing them even though they

23:40

individually are very strong unblocks

23:42

the company and allows it to kind of

23:43

enter a new phase. Um when you're when

23:45

you get stuck you have to start doing

23:47

things. And so all the thing underneath

23:52

the the object level content of what the

23:54

product you are building is you've got

23:57

this you have all these support systems

23:59

kind of the company like how the company

24:01

does purchasing and accounting and

24:02

recruiting and performance reviews and

24:03

budgeting and safety and quality is the

24:05

operating system of the company and that

24:07

has a huge impact

24:10

on how far you can take it. So

24:14

speed is determined by infrastructure.

24:16

Speed determines success and failure.

24:19

You need to put more thought into these

24:20

into getting these foundations right. If

24:22

you do them right at the beginning,

24:24

everything else is much easier. If you

24:26

get them wrong, you'll end up like

24:28

spending $5 million a month and feel

24:30

like you have very little control over

24:31

it. Um and then you're forced into into

24:34

coarser levers and harder decisions. Um

24:39

thank you for coming to my TED talk.

24:48

Okay.

24:51

Do you have advice for people trying to

24:52

choose between industry and academia,

24:54

starting a company now versus getting a

24:56

PhD first?

24:58

So, it really it depends on specifically

25:01

what you're doing. If

25:04

if your field only exists in basic

25:07

research, then getting a PhD might be

25:10

very reasonable. Um

25:13

the

25:17

so when things really start to work um

25:21

like if

25:23

20 years ago the best computer

25:24

scientists were at CMU and Harvard and

25:27

50 years ago the best rock like if you

25:30

wanted to work on rocket engines you

25:31

were at NASA you were at a university

25:33

you're at University of Maryland or

25:35

somewhere and now they're at now the

25:36

best computer scientists are at Google

25:37

and Apple and um and OpenAI And the best

25:41

rocket scientists are at SpaceX and Blue

25:43

Origin and others. So when a field

25:45

really starts to work, industry can just

25:47

marshall such larger levels of resources

25:49

and can just move so much faster. Um,

25:51

and so I think a question has been why

25:53

has academia stayed so relevant in the

25:54

life sciences. And it's just the reality

25:57

is that it doesn't work that well for

25:59

most things. Like humans just aren't

26:00

that good at drug discovery. And so if

26:02

your if your field is really only in

26:04

academia, then it can make total sense

26:05

to get a PhD. But

26:08

um

26:10

I think you know a lot of

26:13

it is uncommon that startups don't get

26:15

the technology to work. It is more

26:16

common that they can't organize the

26:18

human organizations to accomplish their

26:19

goals and learning that is also a skill

26:22

set. The only way to learn it. I think

26:23

it's an oral tradition. You have to do

26:24

it. And so if the choice is working at a

26:26

really high performing company adjacent

26:28

to where you want to be versus getting a

26:30

PhD, I'd probably recommend the company.

26:32

But it's not an absolute rule and it

26:33

really depends on the field.

26:36

what counts as evidence of exceptional

26:38

ability to you? Um, anything that

26:41

concretely you can put your finger on

26:43

that separates that person from their

26:44

high school class. Um, like what is you

26:48

like if you have your average high

26:49

school student? We just like want some

26:52

concrete fact that is that

26:55

um

26:57

I mean ideally the the best evidence of

27:00

exceptional ability is are winning at

27:02

legible competitive games. So this could

27:05

be being a like a chess grandmaster. It

27:07

could be winning design, build, fly or

27:09

formula SAE competitions. Um there's a

27:13

bunch of Silicon Valley deep tech

27:15

companies that are basically built out

27:16

of Formula SAE winners from college. Um

27:19

people that just spent their college

27:20

experience building things and racing

27:22

them and finding out. I think you have

27:24

to have that type of competitive

27:25

feedback. It is tough to know if you're

27:27

exceptional um without having some

27:30

legible competitive game.

27:36

How do we hire engineers now? Do we

27:38

still use leak code or do we have better

27:40

ways? If we allow AI use, how do you

27:42

understand the skills of the applicant?

27:44

Um, so we've never I don't think we've

27:46

ever really used leak code. Maybe some

27:48

other people on the team do it in

27:50

secret, but I've never asked it. Um,

27:57

so software

27:58

in particular,

28:00

it the rewards to horsepower are so

28:03

great that it really is just it's a

28:05

field that attracts really smart people

28:07

because it gives you this very rapid

28:09

feedback. Like if you think about like

28:10

there's a lot of really smart people in

28:12

biology, but when you have a biological

28:14

idea, it can take you many months to

28:15

find out if it's a good one. In

28:17

software, if you have an idea, you can

28:18

often build it in a couple hours or you

28:20

can get feedback within days. And so it

28:21

has this really addictive feedback loop

28:23

kind of like high frequency trading that

28:25

just draws in really smart people. Um

28:28

and uh and so we look for kind of over

28:32

your life what signals do we have that

28:35

you have done something interesting like

28:37

it's it's uncommon for someone to get

28:39

into their mid20s without having without

28:41

there being some thing in their

28:43

background that they went out and sought

28:44

out and did. Um

28:48

but it can but it this is like such an

28:49

open-ended criteria. Um it can really be

28:52

anything. The we don't we increasingly

28:56

more directly to the question we

28:57

increasingly don't directly evaluate

28:59

programming. We evaluate try to evaluate

29:00

thinking. So this is design questions

29:02

like if we give you a domain how do you

29:04

break it down? Can you understand the

29:06

decomposition of the problem clearly? Um

29:08

it's really measures of like can you

29:09

think clearly rather than can you write

29:11

code?

29:14

What did you take away from your

29:16

experience at Neurolink?

29:18

So the question of like should you go

29:19

get a PhD? I don't have a PhD. I spent

29:22

five years running a company for my CEO

29:25

at Neurolink. Um that was I mean there's

29:30

one of the biggest lessons I think is

29:32

that there are few really generic

29:36

there's no generic algorithm for how to

29:38

succeed at a startup. There's no like

29:40

set of like five bullet points that can

29:41

be conveyed that if you just like turn

29:43

the crank your company will be

29:44

successful. It is a long series of

29:46

judgment calls. And so the most

29:48

important thing is that those filters

29:50

are tuned really well. And so the I

29:52

think the most one of the most valuable

29:53

things for me at Neurolink was I was

29:55

working with someone who has empirically

29:57

excellent judgment. Like we could get

29:59

into trouble together and there'd be all

30:01

like something would happen and there'd

30:03

be two possible solutions that would

30:05

make sense and I'd go to him and say

30:07

like is it option A or is it option B?

30:08

you'd look at and be like, "Oh, it's

30:09

definitely option B. The problem would

30:10

never recur." And having been in those

30:12

situations where I was trying to make

30:14

these bets kind of with stakes attached,

30:16

looking forward in time, not getting

30:17

feedback until later with that advice

30:20

was incredibly useful for train for

30:22

fitting those filters. And I don't know

30:23

that there was really a shortcut. And I

30:24

think that just hearing the stories when

30:26

you're not there making the like really

30:28

thinking about it because there are real

30:30

stakes and then getting that feedback um

30:34

that that is an essential part of the

30:36

education of an entrepreneur that I

30:37

think many people underrate. I think it

30:39

is really worth working for a a company

30:41

that has an excellent culture that you

30:43

respect before jumping right into your

30:44

own into your own startup. It is

30:46

relatively uncommon that startup

30:48

cultures get rediscovered entirely from

30:49

first principles. Usually they're passed

30:51

down as as again oral traditions because

30:53

there's a founding team that worked at

30:55

another company which worked at another

30:56

company and so they inherited it or in

30:58

some cases where there's really a

30:59

breakout where there's just some market

31:00

dislocation that really enables a team

31:02

kind of out of nowhere to build it.

31:03

They'll often get it from the VCs but

31:06

it's working with the people that have

31:08

that judgment so that you can get that

31:10

like you can get that reinforcement

31:11

learning as it's long series of facts is

31:14

really important. Um,

31:19

could BCIs or neural interfaces help us

31:21

figure out what consciousness actually

31:22

is? How? Absolutely. Um, so

31:28

if the end of the artificial

31:29

intelligence quest is super intelligent

31:31

machines, um, I think the end of the BCI

31:35

quest is conscious machines. Um, there

31:39

the brain is composed of ordinary matter

31:41

arranged according to the rules of

31:42

chemistry, only things found on the

31:43

periodic table. It seems tough to

31:45

believe that there's like some new

31:46

physics going on in there. And so

31:50

there's we we're looking for some

31:51

mapping between the substrate activity

31:54

and the phenomenal content. Now, if we

31:56

had a tech if we had a magical BCI that

31:58

allowed me to see the instant state of

32:01

every neuron in the brain and and drive

32:03

them, I think we'd figure out

32:04

consciousness pretty fast. I don't think

32:06

I think this is a practical problem, not

32:07

a philosophical problem. And uh but to

32:11

prove it but first of all that practical

32:12

problem is real and we'll have to do the

32:14

stuff in humans and to prove any of this

32:16

we'll have to do it in humans. I think

32:18

the it is possible that uh you could use

32:20

a BCI to prove it. We have some ideas

32:22

about how to do those experiments but

32:24

they are um

32:26

they're still a few some number of years

32:28

off right that things going into humans

32:31

now are are not designed to to study

32:33

consciousness but I do think that that

32:35

is further down this path.

32:39

What should I study to contribute to

32:40

BCIS?

32:42

The

32:47

this really depends on your background.

32:49

Um there neural interfaces are a very

32:53

interdicciplinary problem. It uses

32:54

everything from uh stem cell biology to

32:58

materials and micr fabrication to um to

33:03

software to animal behavior to surgery.

33:06

Um so there are many different entry

33:07

points in it. Um one of the things that

33:09

we found is that it's better to have a

33:12

smaller team that can fit more of the

33:14

problem in their heads and then compress

33:15

it together. Um, contrast this to how

33:18

academia usually handles

33:19

interdisciplinary problems where they'll

33:21

have an interdisiplinary center that

33:22

pulls in very deep verticalized experts

33:25

who are kind of meet at the center. And

33:27

the problem is that they're all speaking

33:28

different languages. And so it's often

33:29

hard to really like even when they can

33:31

communicate, typically you end up

33:33

shipping the interfaces of those

33:34

departments. Whereas for us, if we can

33:37

kind of hold the problem in the head of

33:38

a smaller number of people, we can shift

33:40

around where the bottlenecks are.

33:42

Specific example of this is our protein

33:44

engineering group has been able to

33:46

develop much more sensitive like much

33:48

better proteins for some things that we

33:49

need to do which has allowed us to relax

33:51

some electronics requirements. So if we

33:54

have uh so specifically we have proteins

33:56

called opsins that allow us to make

33:58

neurons light sensitive so that if we

33:59

shine light on them we can fire a

34:01

neuron. Um the problem was that you

34:03

needed to hit a neuron with a lot of

34:04

light to fire it which means that you

34:06

can't have that many light light sources

34:08

because it gets too hot. So, we've been

34:10

able to make the protein more sensitive,

34:11

which means that we can have more LEDs

34:13

because each one can be dimmer. And so,

34:14

we can we've turned this electronics

34:16

problem into a biology problem that

34:17

allowed us to relax those constraints.

34:19

You don't get that as much when you have

34:21

these interdisiplinary centers where

34:22

there's like one group focused on one

34:23

thing, there's another group focused on

34:24

another thing. Um, and so I would say

34:28

being being able to have a broader

34:30

perspective of more of the problem is

34:32

really valuable. And then just have like

34:34

really the as deep and clear an

34:37

understanding of this as of the system

34:39

as you can get. I think there's no

34:40

substitute for being hands-on. It

34:42

doesn't really matter like the you want

34:44

some hard skill to get you in the door.

34:46

Software, electric, electronics,

34:48

mechanical, materials, something and

34:51

then from there I would try to learn as

34:53

much of it as you can. Um

34:57

what doesn't AI replace in scientific

34:58

research?

35:00

Where are humans still necessary if

35:02

anywhere?

35:04

Um,

35:07

we we still definitely need humans. Um,

35:11

and in scientific research in

35:13

particular, I mean, it's tough to

35:14

predict like AI is clearly advancing

35:15

very rapidly. I do think that you need

35:17

to think about how to have your company

35:19

be AI native in the sense that every

35:21

like you want you want to gather all of

35:23

the context all the stuff happening in

35:26

your company and be able to make that

35:27

available efficiently to agents because

35:28

those are clearly a big part of the

35:30

future. So for us in Helix really

35:32

everything goes in there and one of the

35:33

reasons that we did that was because not

35:36

just is it powerful to have everything

35:37

in one database to link together

35:39

purchasing to quality to batch records

35:41

and manufacturing so that we can trace

35:43

stuff more efficiently but also so that

35:45

we could give it all to to agents. Um

35:48

and so we found them to be a a

35:50

multiplier for the team not a

35:51

replacement. Um

35:54

the three biggest areas that AI has had

35:56

an impact for us so far are um like well

36:00

first of all coding I mean that's like

36:01

now basically all this like I don't I've

36:03

written a lot of code in my life I don't

36:05

think I've looked at the source very

36:07

much the last six months um that is

36:10

getting really good um regulations. So

36:14

this is

36:16

so if you're doing anything really

36:17

interesting, you're going to end up

36:18

regulated and then you'll probably end

36:19

up dealing with these things called

36:21

quality systems. And so a quality system

36:23

I think triggers a lot of scar tissue

36:25

for people because it's it's just the

36:26

the quintessential heavy bureaucracy.

36:29

Slow everything down. But the idea of

36:32

quality itself is actually not a

36:33

problem. The problem is that humans are

36:35

bad at reading and interpreting these

36:36

things. And so when we make a product,

36:38

one of the things we have to do is

36:39

identify all of the standards that might

36:41

apply. And there's standards for

36:42

everything. There's standards for like

36:43

how the lithium-ion batteries plug into

36:45

a PCB. There's standards for electrical

36:47

insulation of the boards. There's

36:49

standards for shipping label like the at

36:52

some point you'll have to take your

36:53

shipping packaging, print a label on it,

36:55

and put it in a vibe box and show that

36:57

the the corners of the label don't curl

36:59

in a way that might cause it to detach.

37:01

And so we you hire regulatory experts to

37:03

go find all of the standards that might

37:05

apply, make a list of them, and then

37:07

have a spreadsheet which is like all of

37:08

the evidence that you comply with all of

37:09

the standards. So you have this this um

37:12

this thing can take many many months.

37:14

Historically AI has totally transformed

37:16

it. I mean we can very quickly look up

37:17

all the standards. We can very quickly

37:18

generate the evidence tables. And I

37:21

think that um to the degree that there's

37:25

kind of over I mean there is we

37:27

definitely need to deregulate some

37:28

things but I think that the combination

37:30

of AI and regulation is is a better fit

37:32

than people think and you can use it to

37:34

smooth a lot of stuff. Um where the

37:36

regulations are written in blood and

37:37

largely good ideas it's just hard for

37:38

humans to do it.

37:40

Um,

37:42

why build your own infrastructure

37:44

platforms rather than just buying them?

37:46

I mean, you can't really buy these

37:47

things. There's no there are ERP systems

37:50

out there, but there's no company that

37:52

like loves their ERP system. Like, I

37:54

don't know there's anyone who's really

37:56

like, I want to spend more time in

37:57

Netswuite. Um, and

38:00

on the contrary, there are a bunch of

38:02

examples now of companies that grow up

38:04

around a piece of software that's really

38:05

fit just for them. like YC famously has

38:09

a lot of internal software that I think

38:10

really makes YC work. Um Facebook also

38:13

very famously invested heavily in

38:14

internal tools and now has um like I

38:17

think gets a lot of efficiency from

38:18

that. Um SpaceX and Tesla internally

38:21

have a pretty giant piece of software

38:24

called Warp Speed that runs a lot of

38:25

their manufacturing and R&D processes.

38:27

And so when one company grows up around

38:30

like a harness fit to it, it can be very

38:32

powerful. It is powerful in a way that

38:34

the software that you can buy isn't. Um,

38:36

but this requires you to really look

38:38

into the future because certainly,

38:39

especially at the seed stage, this is

38:40

not the thing that you would think you

38:42

should be focusing on and historically

38:43

it has not been. I think this is a thing

38:44

that has changed with agents. The fact

38:45

that you can vibe code this now makes it

38:48

a reasonable thing to think about.

38:50

Historically software has been so

38:51

expensive, you would have had to buy it

38:53

and that's what everybody did for a long

38:54

time. That was I think a worse world and

38:56

that world has changed and so now there

38:57

are better options available. But like I

38:59

said, so like we previously had used a

39:01

we used greenhouse. Um greenhouse

39:04

required us to have a small number of

39:06

people as a bottleneck at that at that

39:08

first funnel stage. Um replacing that

39:10

with software. We we were able to

39:12

explore voting mechanisms and fairly

39:14

detailed voting mechanisms that can that

39:16

can make smart inferences about who

39:17

would know about it know about an

39:19

applicant. Things that you can't really

39:20

do with the commercial software. And so

39:22

for a lot of these processes, you should

39:25

think about how you want it to work for

39:26

you. the

39:31

it it matter these are human

39:32

organizations these human processes that

39:34

have to be staffed and if they aren't

39:36

done routinely will atrophy and there's

39:38

things that make sense for different

39:39

teams and founders in the way they view

39:40

the world and think about it it really

39:41

is all very different and but if you

39:43

build a thing uh for that works for you

39:45

and then you like bake that into the

39:48

company so it like when you put

39:49

something there it stays there it can be

39:51

very very useful

39:54

what changes should we expect in the

39:57

as BCIs start to work and get widely

39:59

adopted, do intelligence differences no

40:02

longer matter.

40:06

So there's this meme that BCI is an

40:08

artificial intelligence adjacent story

40:10

and there's some of that like eventually

40:12

like if AI is building super intelligent

40:14

machines and BCI labs are building

40:16

conscious machines and we're building

40:17

brain-to-brain connections so that the

40:19

boundaries between those things become

40:20

less meaningful like at some point you

40:23

want a super intelligent conscious

40:24

machine that we can participate in. But

40:26

that actually feels further away to me.

40:27

I think in the near term BCI is really a

40:30

longevity story. And I view longevity as

40:32

really just healthcare. I mean just

40:33

biotech. It's just that it hasn't like I

40:36

think it is not right to say that the

40:37

pharma companies or any of these these

40:39

like past healthcare companies are not

40:41

interested in cures. I think that that

40:42

is what all of them want. It's just that

40:44

that's been beyond our capabilities. And

40:47

in neural engineering and people hear

40:50

BCI think they think of motor decoding

40:52

like I put some electrodes in motor

40:53

cortex and now they can control it like

40:55

a video game. I think neural engineering

40:57

is much broader than that. We include

40:58

our retinal prosthesis in that. We

41:01

include cocar implants in that. Um and

41:05

this this I think is a contrarian take

41:08

on all of healthcare. It gives you these

41:10

effect sizes that you just don't really

41:11

see in medicine. Like if you have a

41:13

patient on on a dopamineergic drug for

41:15

Parkinson's that works for some period

41:16

of time, but it's a it's a relatively

41:18

small effect after a little while. You

41:20

turn on a deep brain stimulator and a

41:21

patient goes from not being able to hold

41:22

a cup of water to being able to write

41:24

cursive in like 10 seconds. You turn on

41:26

like if you want to talk about strong

41:28

patient testimonials, you should see a

41:30

newborn having their coar implant turned

41:32

on. Like these are just when you deal

41:33

directly with the brain as a computer,

41:35

not only do you not have to solve some

41:37

of these really hard biology problems

41:38

that are just beyond humanity's

41:40

capabilities, but you get these results

41:42

very like pretty readily that again are

41:46

just uh like you can get an engineering

41:49

gradient, you can get them more reliably

41:50

and they're just large effects. And so I

41:52

see this as as a way to to extend and

41:55

improve the life of of like of

41:57

everybody. I mean there's

42:00

the the brain is the thing that makes

42:01

you you. It's the only thing that in

42:02

principle you can't transplant. You can

42:04

get a new heart or a new liver. You

42:06

cannot even in principle get a new

42:07

brain. And the brain is usually not the

42:09

thing that fails. And so if you can deal

42:11

with the brain directly, um I think this

42:13

is going to

42:15

this is more of a of a radical longevity

42:17

story than it is an AI one for the

42:19

moment. Although all of these things

42:20

will come together um over some period

42:22

of time

42:25

for your IEN review performance system.

42:27

How do you prevent employees from

42:28

colluding on their votes or downvoting

42:30

somebody on purpose? So, so as I

42:32

mentioned, there are some tricks. So,

42:33

for like for example, applying uh marov

42:36

chain Monte Carlo dropout allows us to

42:38

detect things like voting clicks because

42:40

now instead of seeing one peak, you'll

42:41

see two peaks. That is a a clue to look

42:44

in look into that. Um it's I mean it's

42:47

designed to um be tolerant of these

42:50

things. I think it is really fairly

42:52

transparent. It's also not our only

42:53

signal. It's one of several. Um the uh

42:58

if anybody's interested in this um send

43:01

me an email and I will share a document

43:03

with with the specific tricks but I want

43:05

to understand a little more about how

43:06

you were going to deploy it first. Some

43:07

of this is trade craft

43:15

when you're building something as long

43:17

horizon as Neurotch. How do you figure

43:19

out how much runway you actually need to

43:21

keep the company alive and how do you

43:22

get investors to fund that much?

43:25

So sometimes I mean you you often see

43:29

founders like especially more

43:33

experienced ones pitching VCs for what

43:35

they think is reasonable to ask for

43:37

rather than what they need to run the

43:39

experiment. You're raising some amount

43:40

of money to go find out some answer. The

43:42

answer to that might be no. the

43:44

investors understand this like depending

43:45

on what business you're in, but you have

43:47

to actually run the experiment. And one

43:49

of the the things um like

43:53

there are definitely some ideas that are

43:55

worth funding with $50 million or zero

43:57

dollars, but not $5 million. Um you

43:59

won't run the experiment. It'll be

44:00

really frustrating experience. You'll

44:02

get an ambiguous outcome. And so my

44:03

first piece of advice is like you should

44:05

figure out what you think it's going to

44:06

take to actually run the experiment,

44:07

which is not the whole company. That is

44:08

what is your next value inflection. You

44:10

should have, no matter how ambitious and

44:12

open-ended of your plan is, you should

44:14

have some sense of like what is your

44:15

next key value inflection point. What

44:17

are the experiments that need to go into

44:19

that? Um, price that out and then raise

44:22

twice the money. Um, so I would I mean

44:25

there's some amount of waste. I think if

44:27

you can get waste down to 20 or 30%,

44:28

that's pretty good. Um, and

44:32

anyway, the advice is figure out what it

44:34

costs to actually run the experiment.

44:36

raise twice that and like raise raise

44:39

that or not. Um beyond that it's the uh

44:43

you'll always discover new things.

44:45

There's usually some path through the

44:47

mass. Um but you're also like when you

44:50

start the company you're not going to

44:52

get a guarantee of like that you won't

44:54

be on a bridge to nowhere or that it

44:55

will work on the funding that you have.

44:57

Like you're going to have to get in

44:58

there and figure it out halfway through.

45:00

Um I think that people should push for

45:02

profitability sooner than they often

45:04

think that they need to. Um, for us, I

45:06

mean, even though we are seen as this, I

45:08

think like very open-ended deep tech

45:09

company with a very long roadmap, which

45:11

is true, we are also relent relentlessly

45:13

focused on revenue at this point. Um, we

45:15

are trying to get to sustainability. It

45:17

feels like I mean, you kind of the

45:19

company is kind of constantly dying

45:21

slowly of this money cancer that we can

45:22

beat into remission every couple years

45:24

with the fundraising, but then it like

45:26

eventually comes back. And I like want

45:27

that feeling to be over. And so you you

45:30

no matter like how big of a problem or

45:34

big of a vision it feels, you do need to

45:36

think about how do you get to revenue so

45:37

that not just you can do it forever, but

45:39

then you'll be valued on your long-term

45:41

road map, not not valued on your

45:42

probability of dying. And it really

45:44

opens up an another set of investors

45:46

that wouldn't um that wouldn't be

45:49

relevant otherwise.

45:54

What is the best piece of advice you've

45:56

received?

45:58

Um,

46:02

I don't know. I've acquired way too much

46:04

brain damage over the last 20 years to

46:06

have a memory capable of picking that

46:08

out. Um

46:11

it

46:15

I mean I think if other than

46:19

speed being the basis of success and

46:22

infrastructure determines your speed um

46:25

it is it is important to appreciate that

46:27

there like are no general principles. I

46:28

think people are looking for shortcuts.

46:30

People are looking for um like a a pathy

46:34

set of instructions that are like oh I

46:35

figured it out and that doesn't exist.

46:37

Like every one of these things is

46:38

different. When you get to that moment

46:39

in history, you're doing something new.

46:41

And I mean, we can take we can reflect

46:43

for a second on how crazy it is that all

46:46

that this is possible. Like for the vast

46:48

majority of human history, if you were a

46:50

smart 20-year-old that like had an idea

46:53

to like make your society better and you

46:56

raised this to the people with capital,

46:58

the reaction was like you should pay

46:59

attention to the harvest. The fact that

47:02

like it is not widely available. It's

47:04

not universally available, but it's not

47:05

like widely available that if you're a

47:07

really smart 20-year-old, you can come

47:09

to San Francisco and make the case and

47:11

if it's an interesting idea, you'll get

47:12

millions of dollars to find out. Like

47:14

this is not the case for most of the

47:15

world today and it's certainly not the

47:16

case for most of history anywhere. And

47:20

um that but like that shouldn't feel

47:23

normal like that that this is given to

47:25

push the frontier out. And when you're

47:26

on the frontier, they're like you're

47:29

figuring it out as you go. You like that

47:30

is that is the job. And so I would try

47:33

to rely less on things that feel like

47:34

startup advice and more on how good is

47:37

your judgment, how well is that refined

47:38

in your domain and remembering that is

47:40

you have to think for yourself.

47:46

What are some of the hardest remaining

47:48

engineering challenges involved in

47:49

getting BCIs to work?

47:53

So in BCIS we often feel very limited by

47:56

power and thermal constraints on the

47:57

implants. Um, and so this creates a

47:59

strong pressure to implant as little as

48:01

possible and do the rest uh off the

48:03

body. You can't pass a wire through the

48:05

skin because the skin is a very

48:07

important immune barrier. And if you and

48:08

the skin won't like fully heal around it

48:10

like if you have any connector through

48:11

the scalp, you're constantly at risk of

48:13

a bacteria crawling down that and into

48:14

the brain and then the patient's going

48:15

to have a really bad time. And so you

48:17

really have to be able to close the

48:18

skin. That requires you to have

48:20

implanted like a radio or transceiver of

48:23

some sort and getting the power on that

48:26

down. like there's there's a frontier at

48:28

low power electronics which is really

48:29

important more as I mentioned earlier a

48:31

lot of this is now becoming increasingly

48:33

biology as our biological engineering

48:35

capabilities increase um but then on

48:37

those implants ironically one of the the

48:40

harder kind of more open problems is

48:42

what we call packaging um our colleagues

48:45

in Europe call it tropicalization

48:47

um this is the uh your ability to keep

48:50

your device in and the body out of an

48:52

implant that that you put in the body so

48:54

there are no truly passive surfaces

48:56

anywhere in the body, even bone is

48:58

constantly getting remolded. And so if I

49:00

put a device in, it's going to be it's

49:02

going to be getting attacked by the body

49:04

and it's not regenerating itself. And so

49:05

you need a material that is going to

49:07

survive that for an extended period of

49:09

time. The very like the classic example

49:11

of this is the laser welded titanium

49:13

can, which like if you've seen like a

49:15

pacemaker or deep brain stimulator,

49:17

they've got this big titanium box.

49:18

Obviously can't we can't put a big

49:20

titanium box in the eye. Um,

49:22

interestingly, one of the the earlier

49:23

retinal prostheses before before us, uh,

49:27

10 years ago was a device that was a

49:30

that did have a titanium box that they

49:31

attached to the eyeball. So, they had a

49:33

it was a four and a half hour surgery.

49:34

They had a little belt that went around

49:35

the eyeball with a little titanium box

49:36

on the side of the eye with a battery

49:38

and a little PCB. Like, this didn't

49:40

work. This was not good enough. Um, they

49:42

needed to get rid of that somehow. Um in

49:44

our case we've solved this with the with

49:46

the laser projection trick where we

49:48

power it wirelessly but um having type

49:51

this next generation packaging some type

49:53

of conformal coating that we can use to

49:56

protect the implant that is not degraded

49:58

by the body is also not harmful to the

50:00

body and is is resistant to all the

50:02

thing like all of the ways the body will

50:05

try and kill it. um th that material

50:07

science is a very open-ended field and

50:08

if you're interested in material science

50:10

that is a thing that uh we need progress

50:12

in.

50:16

How did you approach interacting with

50:17

the medical field to build your retinal

50:19

implant?

50:20

Um

50:22

the

50:27

I mean business is just like a fancy

50:29

word for talking to people and doing

50:31

things like you send you talk to them

50:32

like you send them emails. I mean this

50:33

is the uh

50:37

so for our retinal implant it was

50:39

originally invented uh by a professor at

50:41

Stanford almost 15 years ago I think um

50:44

it was licensed to a European company

50:47

that we were tracking um let me back up

50:49

a second. So when we started the company

50:52

uh I I came from Neurolink four of my

50:54

five co-founders came from Neurolink.

50:56

uh kind of took a look around the world

50:58

in early 2021 and asked like what is the

51:02

most valuable thing that we can do that

51:03

would be likely to work in the near

51:04

future that would may have a big impact

51:06

to patients and allow us to be the

51:07

foundation for a um the type of scalable

51:11

medical device company that we wanted to

51:12

build. And we came to the conclusion

51:13

that that restoring vision to the blind

51:15

by stimulating the retina was was the

51:17

thing in that there's you kind of have a

51:21

choice of two types of cells in the

51:22

retina that you can stimulate these

51:24

things called bipolar cells or the optic

51:25

nerve. And you could do that

51:26

electrically or you could do that

51:27

optically. We explored all four

51:30

quadrants of that. We developed

51:31

internally a state-of-the-art gene

51:33

therapy that optically stimulated one of

51:34

those cells. And we identified this this

51:37

French company as being the

51:38

state-of-the-art in electrical

51:39

stimulation. And so we I mean it's a

51:42

small community. You can meet people,

51:43

you can talk to them. Um we uh it

51:47

eventually made sense for us to acquire

51:49

them. We ended up with the license, the

51:50

technology, and we and we work with

51:52

surgeons and doctors all the time. Um

51:54

you uh like if there's a new surgery

51:57

that you want to figure out, I mean

51:59

typically this makes this is best going

52:00

through networks so that people are more

52:02

likely to respond to your email, but we

52:04

cold email surgeons all the time saying

52:06

like, "Hey, we have a weird surgery to

52:07

develop. Do you want to be a

52:09

consultant?" and people reply

52:15

um there before I get to the next

52:17

question there there is a real cultural

52:22

thing here um so in my time hanging out

52:26

around the periphery of SpaceX I

52:29

observed that like at least circa seven

52:31

or eight years ago probably like 20% of

52:34

that company is what you might

52:36

characterize as committed Martian

52:37

colonists and 80% % are serious

52:40

engineers. I think that those people are

52:42

lunatics and they just want to work on

52:43

the highest performance methodox engines

52:44

in the world. And you need both of those

52:47

cultures to be really successful long

52:49

term. And that's uh especially tricky in

52:51

in in medicine, right? Because that's a

52:53

very very conservative, arguably very

52:55

authoritarian culture for the most part.

52:58

And similarly at at our company we have

53:00

I'd say 30%

53:03

I mean it's an overtly transhumanist

53:05

mission and then 70%

53:08

like serious clinicians and scientists

53:11

and researchers and people who think

53:12

that those guys are crazy but we're

53:13

going to build some really valuable uh

53:15

medical devices for critical unmet needs

53:17

in the process. I think one of the

53:19

things that makes science the company

53:21

very special is that it has both of

53:23

those cultures and is able to integrate

53:25

them and we're able to simultaneously do

53:26

some really cool research that I think

53:28

is really at the edge of the Overton

53:30

window while simultaneously running

53:32

clinical trials in six countries now

53:34

with an approved medical device in

53:35

Europe and clinical trial results in the

53:37

New England Journal of Medicine. You

53:38

have to be able to navigate both of

53:41

those things I think to really reshape

53:42

the future.

53:46

Has biotech gotten easier to break into

53:48

for earlier stage founders?

53:52

Um,

53:55

biotech remains capital intensive. Um,

53:57

and so that is like I don't know that

54:00

I'd recommend biotech if you have a

54:01

choice of other stuff to do. I think for

54:04

me this was I got like

54:08

I realized almost 30 years ago that if

54:11

you could engineer like if you could

54:12

alter the brain you could alter reality.

54:14

like this was one of the biggest

54:16

missions of of the next 30 40 years was

54:19

was building these things. And so for

54:21

me, I think it's like every now and then

54:23

I think that my life would be way easier

54:25

if I just gone into AI instead of ECI.

54:28

Um but somebody has to do it. And I

54:31

think it's important to

54:34

like biotech is hard. It's like it's a

54:35

it is a much harder path than many other

54:37

things that you can do. But when you're

54:39

successful, it it has an impact on like

54:42

the really what you see elsewhere. Um

54:45

the

54:46

like I think increasingly there's I mean

54:49

it was Paul Graham that wrote a long

54:51

time ago that like you get vibes in

54:53

different cities and like the vibe in

54:54

Cambridge, Massachusetts is you should

54:56

be smarter or the vibe in New York is

54:57

you should be wealthier. The vibe in San

54:59

Francisco is you should be more

55:00

powerful. Especially with the rise of

55:02

things like artificial intelligence, I

55:03

think people realize that this isn't

55:05

just about money. And I think for many

55:06

the of the most effective startup

55:08

founders, it's not about it's not about

55:09

the money. It's about changing like

55:12

there's some way in which you want the

55:13

world to be different. And it just turns

55:15

out that for that project, the

55:16

for-profit company is an incredibly

55:18

powerful way to marshall the resources

55:20

required to cause the world to be

55:21

different in that way. And this is this

55:23

is not about money. This is about power.

55:25

And there are many different types of

55:26

power. There's economic power. There's

55:28

military power. But the power to heal

55:30

the sick is is like a very dramatic one.

55:33

And when you get that, not only is that

55:36

um is that a real force to reshape the

55:38

world, it's one that can be shared very

55:39

readily. Like you can't share military

55:41

power, economic power, but you can share

55:42

the power um of restoring sight to the

55:45

blind or of giving life to the cancer

55:47

patient. And I think that the world is

55:50

getting more complicated and there's

55:51

there's like there's big impacts of all

55:53

the things that are being worked on by

55:54

the people in this room. And biotech is

55:56

is hard. It's very capital intensive.

55:58

It's a long road. when you start a

56:00

company in this space, you're committing

56:01

to a decade of your life that you will

56:02

never get back no matter how it turns

56:04

out. Um, but

56:07

the results of that when it works, um,

56:10

the impact that this has on patients and

56:11

their families is really unlike really

56:13

any other sector.

56:16

So the last question,

56:18

what's a popular belief in tech that you

56:21

think is wrong? And I don't even know

56:23

what the popular beliefs in tech are

56:25

now. Well, I mean, okay, even the whole

56:27

basis of building Helix is contrarian.

56:30

Like, I think that if you raise a series

56:32

A and then you tell your investors that

56:33

you're going to vibe code a purchasing

56:35

system, I think that any reasonable

56:37

board is going to like ask you what

56:39

you're thinking. Um, and that um

56:45

we were able to do that because I never

56:46

got those questions because we don't

56:47

because I control the company. But

56:51

that's one narrow example, I guess.

56:55

All right.

56:57

Thank you.

Interactive Summary

Max Hodak, CEO of Science, shares insights on building deep-tech companies, emphasizing that speed of iteration is the primary factor for success. He argues that this speed is not just about technical talent but fundamentally about building robust, internal infrastructure—such as custom systems for purchasing, recruiting, and performance evaluation—that allows for rapid execution. He also discusses the nuances of hiring, the importance of maintaining founder judgment, and the power of biotechnology to tangibly change the world.

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