well it's panic selling in the chinese

stock markets the last couple of days

although the hang seng index is only

down 16

but certain companies especially in

technology uh the internet sector are

down like 40 50

education companies in china down 80 to

90 percent

why is this happening is because all

thanks to the government right the

chinese communist party they're really

cracking down on all these industry

imposing fines

banning certain activities imposing uh

certain regulations

so as an investor what should you do

should you

you know panic and sell like everyone

else get out while i still can

or should you hold your stocks or should

you buy more stock should you be greedy

when others are

fearful so in this video i'll be

breaking down

this entire crisis so why are they doing

this we're gonna

you know explore why is the government

doing this what's their

end game how am i managing my own

portfolio

and as typical investors should you be

taking advantage of this should you be

buying stocks at these discounts

or should you just be staying away

because it's not worth the risk

let's break it down in this video

so before we begin let me remind you

that in chinese

the word crisis is called wei si which

is made of two

root words which is whey which means

danger

and c which means opportunity so what

does it mean it means that in any crisis

you've got to be aware of the danger you

can get hurt but at the same time

recognize the opportunity because in

every crisis

there's an opportunity so let's take a

look at a timeline about what the

government has been doing and how it's

been cracking down on these different

industries

so all this started last year in 2020

when they

uh halted the end ipo of alibaba so ant

is the

fintech business of alibaba because they

said you're violating certain

financial technological laws in china

although i do believe that is because

and was posing a threat

to the chinese banks of which the

government has a big stake in it so it's

like don't screw up my banks

okay well then the second thing was they

find alibaba

about 2.8 billion dollars seems like a

lot but in terms of a per share basis

they're actually very small it's like a

slap on the wrist

they find alibaba for unfair

monopolistic practices

for example in alibaba what it did was

they told their merchants if you sell

with us

you can't sell on other e-commerce

platforms you can't sell on pin.org you

can sell on jd.com

you can only sell with us so the

government felt that that was really

unfair

there was unfair monopolistic practices

so they say stop that and again they

give them a fine all those very small

fine

so these are the two main things that

they did to alibaba

they're fine and stopping them from

making merchants sell exclusively on

their platforms

so as a result since last year alibaba's

down like 41

from the high then it started going

after other internet companies

so they then went after 10 10 cent

is the largest social media company in

china it's kind of like your facebook

and your paypal put together and tencent

is also the largest

uh video game online video game

company in the world not in china in the

world all right

so they went after tencent for a couple

of things number one was they blocked a

merger

of taoi and huya which are the two

largest video streaming companies in

china they blocked the merger

because they said if they merged they'd

be like 70 market share that would kill

all the competition so they killed that

merger

so tencent owns a 30 stake in both of

them so they killed that so that's one

thing

second thing was they find tencent

recently

uh for allowing sexually exploitive

content

of miners on their on their

their app all right and most recently

what happened was uh the government

ordered tencent music entertainment

which is a subsidiary of tencent

uh to end its exclusive music licensing

deals with global

record labels and they find them seventy

seven thousand dollars which again

impedance right so okay so that's what

they did and 10 cents

share price is down 40 from the high

because of all these

fines and regulations and of course

there were a lot of other stuff

the next one is of course dd so dd is

the largest

ride hailing app in china it's kind of

like the uber of china

and they recently went ipo they listed

on the

u.s stock exchange now a few days after

they listed china said wait a minute

you have been illegally collecting

user data and violating data protection

rules according to the cyber security

laws of china so

all your apps are suspended and we are

launching a full investigation we're

gonna

find you and so because of that dd

since it when ipo is down like 56

from the ipo price and most recently

they went after the private education

companies in china and they said that

you know you guys are creating

undue stress and pressure on the kids

you are charging exorbitant fees

and because of that parents kind of

fought the tutoring and they don't have

kids anymore and it's creating a

societal fracture

and you know because of that no more

profits for you guys right so

all education companies teaching the

curriculum has to be non-profit

and you can't take foreign capital um

and no more tutoring on weekends and

vacations no more tutoring for kids

under six years old

so basically the government's new policy

has killed

the entire private education sector

so sure enough the share prices of these

companies have fallen like 90

to 95 so with all this a lot of

investors are panickings like

who's next who's next to get whacked is

my company gonna go to zero

and they're freaking out they're panic

selling and a lot of people are going

they're looking at the government going

what the are you doing are you

crazy why are you killing your own

companies why are you killing your own

market

what do you want right so

here's the thing we have to understand

the government what's their endgame

why are they doing what they're doing

and only then

can you make money in china

there's an old saying by suzu the art of

war this

military general and he said that you

have to know your enemy

and know yourself and you can fight 100

battles without disaster

so to ask investors the chinese

government is kind of like the enemy

right

like the enemy so you've got to

understand where they're coming from at

the same time

understand yourself as an investor

what's your strategy

what's your investment strategy and only

then can you

build your wealth without disaster so

let's really understand

uh what's going on here when you invest

in china you have to understand it's a

totally different

political system it's a totally

different game like in the us they know

that

big technology companies are also

exploiting loopholes they are also

having a lot of unfair monopolistic

practices but the us government can't do

right because

of their democracy they debate till the

cows come home and a lot of politicians

they're in the pockets of these wealthy

entrepreneurs they are controlled

by them through lobbying so the us

government government can't do anything

right so it's like run free run free in

china it's different

in china remember that it's an

authoritarian government it's a

communist country where the government

has

absolute power over the private sector

and it can push through any regulation

they want anytime they want to do it

that's the first thing to understand

the second thing is that the chinese

government would always put national

interests

above individual interests it means in

china yeah you can get rich you can get

wealthy

but if you become too powerful and it

goes against the

national security of interest we will

kill you

now think about it right imagine you're

the chinese government and

you say to alibaba you know what we

elbowed out

google we elbowed out facebook we

elbowed up paper we got rid of all the

competition

so you are the monopoly and baba goes

yeah i'm the monopoly right but they got

too arrogant they got too big

and when alibaba started controlling all

the data of all the citizens

and started controlling the financial

system

the chinese government said no no no i

got rid of all these people

and now you want to play punk with me

now you think you're bigger than me

so that's how alibaba got fined and

that's how they are now forced to play

by the rules of the government

the other thing to understand is that in

china the government wants to balance

capitalism economic growth with

socialism which is the good of the

people

so yes they want economic growth and for

that to happen they need people to

be wealthier and that's why they need

these companies to keep growing and to

generate more profits so they won't kill

these companies they want the companies

to succeed

but at the same time they have to ensure

that the man on the street is not hurt

so they enact these regulations to

protect the citizens

like anti-trust regulations that can

create unfair pricing in the future and

hurt the people

at the end of the day we can be rewarded

handsomely investing in china and riding

on china's

growth and wealth by the same time you

have to understand which companies to

invest in

and you have to understand the

regulatory risk

these regulations may hurt the market in

the short term but they will create more

sustainable growth

in the long run so when we invest in

china we cannot use

the western playbook we have to

understand the regulatory risk

and to do our best to avoid the risk in

order to

generate those profits when investing in

china you have to understand the five

main regulatory risk the first is a risk

of

anti-trust crackdown so this is where

the government

wants to stop unfair monopolistic

practices by certain companies and there

are not many companies that

are monopoly so basically you've got

alibaba

you've got tencent you have got maituan

and maybe

jd or pintuato to name a few so

i own these big tech giants am i

concerned about this anti-trust

crackdown

not at all and the reason is this i

think that these

regulations to prevent unfair

monopolistic practices i think

is good for the long-term growth and

health of the industry so i don't have a

problem with it

and although they are putting certain

regulations like preventing certain

mergers and stopping

alibaba from exclusive arrangements with

their merchants

i don't think it's going to really

affect the dominant

positions of these companies uh

significantly

why because alibaba is already a huge

market share leader they've got a wide

economic mode they've over 60 market

share

same thing with 10 cents so all these

things would

benefit uh newer companies but it will

not significantly

alter the competitive advantage of these

tech giants so this is something that

i'm

not concerned about at all the second

risks are with companies that pose a

cyber security

threat to the chinese government and to

the national security of china

so basically they're concerned that

certain companies like dd

which is the right healing app and they

collect data

of millions and millions of citizens and

by listing on the u.s

exchange and being audited for example

or some oversight by

the foreign government they're afraid

that this

data this big data of citizens in china

will fall into foreign hands

so chinese government wants to ensure

that companies that

manage all this data the data stays in

china

and for companies that do not follow

these regulations they'll be harshly

punished

by the chinese government and this

exactly what happened to dd in fact

the government told dd that to delay the

ipo

because they were violating certain

cyber security laws

and they were not handling the private

data of

their customers properly but dd

basically went ahead anyway with the ipo

and gave a middle finger to the chinese

government so now the government is

really pissed off

and they're really gonna uh you know get

dd for this so

that's why for certain companies like dd

i would stay

away and i wouldn't dare to invest in

them right

so like i said you have to know which

companies are in real trouble and which

companies

which are pretty safe now the third

risk you have to understand is now this

risk doesn't come from

the chinese government it comes from the

us government

so recently last year the u.s government

has

passed a new bill which is the holding

foreign companies accountable act right

now this law states that uh companies

specifically chinese companies that are

listed on the u.s stock exchanges

they have to declare that they are not

owned or controlled by any foreign

government

now that's going to be tricky because i

can tell you that most of the chinese

companies are controlled

indirectly by the chinese government at

the same time

these chinese companies listed on the

u.s exchange

they have to be audited

by the pcaob which is the public company

accounting oversight board

for three consecutive years they must

have their accounts being audited by

this

board and if they are not

these companies companies will be banned

from trading

and delisted from the u.s stock

exchanges

so here's the problem the u.s government

is saying that these chinese companies

who are listed on the u.s exchange they

must be audited by

u.s authorities or they will be listed

in three years but the chinese

government will not allow that to happen

because they would not want the u.s

government to audit their companies and

be privy to a lot of

sensitive data now

currently let's take a look at this

currently there are about 248 chinese

companies

listed on the u.s exchanges with a total

market capitalization of 2.1 trillion

dollars

so what's going to happen in the worst

case scenario if the us government

delist all the chinese companies from

the u.s exchanges

that could create a major blow to

investors they'll lose a lot of money

and it's going to be a huge

impact on the financial markets

will the u.s government do this i'm not

sure i think it's unlikely but you never

know

and that's why personally for me when i

invest in chinese companies

i avoid the chinese companies listed on

the u.s markets

through abs american depository receipts

i feel more comfortable owning chinese

companies

listed directly on the hong kong

exchange

or listed on the shanghai exchange

now if for some reason you're not able

to invest in the hong kong or shanghai

stocks

because your broker doesn't allow you to

then my suggestion would be in the long

run

it is safer to own chinese etfs

exchange traded funds when they own the

companies

that are listed on hong kong and

shanghai rather than owning the ones

listed in the us because there is a risk

they could be

forced to delist from the markets and if

they are forced to delist

as an investor you may have problems

getting your money back

again this is a small risk but it could

happen now there's a fourth risk you

have to be aware about which is what we

call the variable

interest entity risk or vie risk

now this applies to again china stocks

listed

on the u.s markets now first you have to

understand that according to chinese law

foreigners are not allowed to own

chinese companies

in sensitive sectors like internet

business

okay so how was alibaba and tencent

and jd.com which are internet companies

how do they get

foreigners to own their shares well they

created a loophole

and what they did was they created a vie

structure

to bypass this chinese regulation

so what they did was this so for example

this is the actual alibaba for example

down here this is alibaba company now

again as

foreigners you can't legally own shares

in the actual

alibaba company so what they do is they

create another company

which is a wholly foreign-owned

enterprise in china

and another shell company which is in

the cayman islands

all right and so what happens is that

using a bunch of

contracts and agreements when you

buy the alibaba in the u.s

you're not actually buying the real

alibaba you're actually buying shares

in a cayman registered shell company

that owns another foreign

company in china that has got contracts

and agreements

with the actual alibaba company i know

it sounds a bit complicated but

basically

they did this to bypass this chinese

regulation so i have to tell you that

technically this is

in a gray area it is not technically 100

legal so again understand that if you

own u.s listed shares in alibaba or

tencent

or jd or pinto you don't actually

own shares in the real company you own

the depository receipts

in a company that has a contract with

the chinese firm that promises

to deliver the portion of profits to the

chinese firm

now here's the uh scary thing

you have to understand that shareholders

in these

vie structures own no real assets

and you have no legal recourse should

the chinese decide to

void the whole situation or the chinese

parent company decides to move assets

elsewhere

so in the worst case scenario if the

chinese government were to play

bastard and they say well i'm sorry this

vi structure is illegal

everyone who owns us uh listed baba or

tencent

or pinto auto you actually don't own

anything

you have got no legal recourse you are

actually owning a shell company all

right so

now will the chinese government do this

i doubt so if they do this they're gonna

basically destroy their reputation in

the world

and their whole financial market is

gonna suffer

so i don't think they're gonna do this

but again

there is a very small risk if they

pursue this nuclear option and that's

why i keep telling people that

if you want to invest in china stocks

and you want to be 100

safe buy the actual chinese shares

listed on hong kong or shanghai and not

the ones listed in the us

because you're not really buying the

company you're just buying a shell

company

with agreements with the real company

the fifth risk is that

in china any business that is

detrimental to the social good of the

country will get

whacked eventually like i never invested

in the chinese education companies like

edu or tal

and the reason is because i myself i am

in the education business in singapore i

own many learning centers where we tutor

kids in english and mathematics so i

understand the

business and industry very well and the

reason i didn't invest

in the chinese companies was i felt

uncomfortable and the reason is because

again the chinese

education companies they overly pressure

the students there they

hard sell them uh tutoring packages they

jack up the prices and a lot of students

there

you know they study like crazy and they

are suicidal many of them

and a lot of parents uh they can't

afford to have kids so

i felt it was really really

unsustainable and that's why i stayed

away

from those stocks and thank goodness

because now they've collapsed right

so again i say if you want to invest in

china you have to really

understand the business you're buying

you have to really understand the

industry

that it's in and if you and if you

actually understand

uh what's happening in china you'll know

that it was not a sustainable situation

and this crackdown on the education

companies was

a long time coming just to share view if

you

read some of these twitter feeds you

understand what's actually going on in

the education

industry over there all right it's like

it says over here right

like this guy he says it is referring to

his uh

teenage cousin a student right he's done

nothing

since the age of six other than study i

was sudden

seeing just how messed he became as a

product of the education system

being wired to do nothing other than

mindless studying so much so that he had

trouble picking out his

own clothes in the morning even at age

18. i saw my aunt

a bird through her paycheck to send her

son

through after-school programs just so

he's not disadvantaged relative to other

kids

ironically regular schools became a

sideshow while after school programs

became the main battleground for kids

my cousin would sleep through regular

school so he can have enough energy

left for after-school programs and many

regular school teachers complain

and they left their jobs to teach after

school because of the better pay it

affected the system in a major way so

basically the private education

system was really screwing up the public

system

and again causing parents to overpay for

tutoring and all this thing and that's

what caused the government to step in to

stop all these things not because they

are bastards or they want to

hurt investors but they had to balance

the societal good

with capitalism so as you guys know i've

always been investing in china as part

of my overall investment strategy so let

me share with you what's

my strategy moving forward if you take a

look at my portfolios

china makes up roughly about twenty

percent

of my overall portfolio the other eighty

percent being

us companies so the recent sell-off in

chinese stocks has definitely

impacted my portfolio's value in the

last couple of days

uh if you take a look at my right now my

up-to-date

uh year-to-date performance you can see

it's up about 21.41

uh from january to july for the year

now this was actually close to like 28

return for the first seven months but

because of the sell-off

it's down eight percentage points and

i'm only up 21

for the year so uh that's the impact

that the china

stocks sell off has had on my portfolio

uh if you take a look i'm owning 10 cent

alibaba and jd and for 10 cent my

uh average price was three eight nine

uh and now it's down to 450 it was at

700 so it's it dropped a lot

and reducing my profit temporarily

for alibaba my average price is 217

and now it's 180 so i'm currently down

like 18

below my purchase price and as an

investor that's fine

because as long as you know it's a great

company it's under value

it will rebound eventually it's going to

double and triple in the future

so short term it's a bit down uh no

worries made

all right and like jd.com i'm also

slightly below my average price of 290

now it's like 247

and again note that my chinese companies

i own are the ones in

on hong kong i've got etfs like the ashr

and the gxe china ets they sit on the

u.s markets

and they are still um higher

than my average price because i bought

them some time ago

uh but it's been down quite a lot since

the last couple of months

so you can see if you add up like for 10

cent i've got a four percent

exposure right alibaba five percent

exposure jd.com one percent exposure

for my china etfs five percent and one

point six five percent so if you edit

all together

basically my chinese exposure is 22

percent right now so what's really

important is as an investor

you must always diversify your portfolio

and not put too much into one

sector or one industry or one country if

it is a

developing emerging market so i always

tell people that

don't have more than 25 exposure to

emerging markets

uh china or anything like that so this

ensures that when it's a sell-off your

portfolio doesn't get too badly

hurt in the short term so what's my

strategy moving forward am i gonna buy

more shares now that it's

cheaper am i holding or am i going to

sell anything

now as an investor your decision about

whether to buy whole or sell must be

based on understanding the business

behind

the stock and not just selling because

you get emotional and you panic and oh

my god

and the worst time to sell is when

you're panicking when you're emotional

because you tend to sell

right at the bottom and the moment you

sell it bounces back up again

so you got to be cool about it right so

even if the price is way below your

purchase

price or is way down from the high you

got to look at it

logically from the business business

perspective

so the first question to ask would be

okay

so from the regulations and the policy

changes

how has it significantly altered the

fundamentals of the business

so based on what the government has done

has it changed the fundamental business

of alibaba

of tencent of dd of pintuator

of jd of the chinese education companies

and if so by how much

all right so that's the first question

to ask the second question would be

currently are the shares of the business

significantly undervalued or are they

still overvalued

and the last question would be will

these companies

continue to grow over time will they be

worth a lot more

six months a year two years from now so

the answer

depends on the individual company so i'm

just going to give you a few examples i

won't go through all the companies i'll

just go through

some of the companies and let's begin

with alibaba

so alibaba is the biggest e-commerce

company in china they've got over 60

market share and they're also into

the cloud enterprise so

uh currently the the price is down about

41 percent from the high as i'm speaking

right now it's still going down in the

market so maybe it's down to

about 42 or 43 percent from the high

right now

and if you calculate the intrinsic value

i'm not going to go into that but

basically that's what we do

in our programs now even taking into

account

uh that they are no longer having

exclusive merchants taking into account

that

uh certain regulations were imposed on

them no more nipo

the valuation i get is still about

313 us dollars for the us baba shares

and for the ones on hong kong exchange i

valued at about 303 dollars taking into

account all the regulatory

actions so currently it's trading at

well when i took this screen captures

for 191 right now i think it's down to

like 180 went down a bit more

so currently it's like about 40 40 to 43

under value right now so am i going to

sell alibaba of course not

why because it's still a great business

all right the sales are growing

profits are growing cash flow is growing

it's got huge cash it's got low debt

it's a great business

and to me this sell-off is purely

irrational it's purely

irrational panic now i'm not saying it

can't go lower of course it can go lower

in fact

when does the price bottom the price

bottoms

when there are no more sellers left when

are there no more sellers left

when the last person who wanted to sell

has sold and we call that capitulation

so capitulation is when the week holders

they panic they give up they sell and

once everyone

who wanted to sell has sold then it

bought them so it may bottom today it

may bottom tomorrow i don't know where

it's gonna bottom right but eventually

it will bottom

and over time it is gonna go back

uh way above its intrinsic value of 303

dollars so for this guy

i'm holding it will i be buying more i

won't be buying more

why because i already have a five

percent allocation

in my portfolio and that's my maximum

allocation but if i didn't have a five

percent allocation i would

buy more to that allocation so the

important thing is diversification

always have a fixed maximum allocation

of a stock in your portfolio once you

reach that maximum

you don't add more shares you just you

know hold it until it

eventually goes a lot higher uh that's

alibaba now for 10

cent um it's also

40 percent drop from the high right now

i think it's dropped to like 450 as well

so it's about you know 42

from the high the intrinsic value is

about

733 hong kong dollars and again this is

taking into account

all the regulations and fines imposed

upon them and based on their intrinsic

value they are still 37

undervalued so for tencent i think it's

a great company

and again i'm not selling anything in

fact i may be buying a bit more 10 cent

because

i'm slightly below 5 so i may add a bit

more shares to get

back to a five percent allocation if you

look at

past crashes of the stock you can see

that

uh this was back in 2018

when they uh the video games were

banned temporarily by the chinese

government at the time

uh the price fell 47 percent from the

high

before it eventually bottomed and it

went back up right so remember that

every panic will end

every crisis will end and when it ends

it will eventually rebound to what

is the fair value so you gotta uh

understand that right so right now it's

down like 40

45 percent it may go down a bit more all

the way down here you never know

but eventually when it bottoms it's

going to be a huge upside

for 10 cent holdings now if you take a

look at alibaba you can see that

again previous crashes this was down 53

back in 2015 and in 2018

2019 it was down like 39 so so far down

about 45

again it could go a bit lower even down

to 50 percent you never know

but again if you understand the

fundamentals of the business

you're cool with it right you don't

freak out you don't sell just hold it

it's going to go back higher again

and again does it apply for all

companies we hold all companies

no so for example dd now i don't own dd

shares because in the first place i

never like

the business model right to me uber

and grab and all these right healing

apps

they're in a very very low profit margin

industry and they compete with public

transport

so i never liked the business model in

the first place so i never bought it

right

um but if i did own it for example

i wouldn't want to hold on to it for too

long i wanna get out all right but again

uh i always learned that if you want to

sell a stock because it's a lousy

business uh don't sell at the low

remember nothing drops in a straight

line you'll like drop it go up you drop

it goes up so wait for a bit of a rally

to get out

if you don't believe in the business

anymore

personally for me like i said i don't

own this and i wouldn't want to own this

or even though it is slightly

undervalued

why because dd first of all it's not

making money it doesn't have consistent

profits

i don't think it's got a strong mode but

in addition

um the chinese government is really

pissed off at them

because they kind of like went against

the uh

advice of going ipo without clearing

their cyber security

uh uh violations

and you can see china's regulators

suspect dd's u.s listing was a

deliberate act of deceit

a portrayal that shows severity of

mistrust

and deity is at a risk of unprecedented

penalties

so the government is now thinking about

how to punish them and they said it's

going to be unprecedented so it could be

anything from a huge

fine to force the listing to withdrawal

of their

us shares so no idea how it's gonna play

out it could get really ugly so

uh i wouldn't hold on to dd uh

personally all right so again there are

many many examples

uh i can't go through all of them but

those are a few examples

finally in the edutech company or the

private education company

um i think it's over i think because of

the regulations they have completely

dismantled their business models so i

don't think those

companies like edu or tal i don't think

they're ever going to get back

i don't think they're ever going to be

where they were in the past so

i don't hold those stocks and if i did

hold them i

i wouldn't have much hope in them in the

future right so it depends on the

individual companies

so let me summarize this pretty long

video uh with this

statement should you own chinese stocks

yes you can make a lot of money but you

could lose money as well if you

run foul of these regulations so number

one only own chinese stocks

if you truly understand the underlying

business

that you know it's a great business it's

got a wide mode

and it's not going to uh

go against any of those risks and

regulations i talked about

okay and if you're not confident enough

to pick

the right companies because there's so

many of them if you're not confident

then the best thing to do to get

exposure to chinese markets is to buy

the chinese etfs exchange traded funds

but to ensure that the etfs you buy the

companies they

hold are not listed on the us markets or

not too many of them at least

because again remember that these u.s

listed adrs

are constructed using those vie

structures which are technically illegal

and the us government could also force

them to deal it so there's

there's a bit of risk over there so i'd

rather hold etfs

that own chinese companies that are

listed on hong kong

or shanghai by owning ets we eliminate

company specific risk the final thing to

always understand is that

in investing in any market or any

company

never put all your eggs in one basket

because you never know what's going to

happen

okay always diversify to ensure that

each company and each sector has a small

allocation so if happens

your portfolio will still grow your

wealth will still

grow every single year all right so it's

all about diversification

and again finally remember that um

although the risk is small it's always

safest to haul

the chinese companies listed in hong

kong or shanghai because you

own the actual shares of the company so

i hope this presentation has been useful

it's been eye-opening and you've got

questions do

ask them in the comments section i'll do

my best to answer them in the next

couple of days

uh this adam cool and be in the markets

be with you

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