the Advent of super intelligence it it

is actually very difficult to predict

what will happen next so I think there

you know there's some chance um uh that

it will end Humanity I I think that's

you know like I said I probably agree

with Jeff Hinton that it's about um I

don't know 10% or 20% or something like

that the probable uh positive scenario

outweighs the negative scenario it it's

just that there's a it's difficult to

predict

exactly so here's a deal we're on we're

on X video and we're over starlink

elon's airborne right now on his way to

La Elon good

afternoon uh good afternoon

congratulations on uh on all that's

going on you know the conversation

yesterday Elon is one that you're well

familiar with and have been talking to

the world about which is is digital

super intelligence Humanity's greatest

hope or its greatest fear and I would

love to have you sort of speak to that

for a few

minutes I mean it's it's called The

Singularity for a reason um as a as you

know the singularity Institute and

whatnot um so when you have a s you know

sort of the Advent of super intelligence

it is actually very difficult to predict

what will happen next so I think there

you know there's some chance um uh that

it'll end Humanity I I think that's you

know like I said I would probably agree

with Jeff Hinton that it's about um I

don't know 10% or 20% or something like

that um and then I you know I think

there's I think that the the probable uh

positive scenario outweighs the negative

scenario it it's just that there's a

it's difficult to predict exactly um but

I I think we are headed for um you know

as as I think is the title of your book

abundance uh is the most likely

outcome so yeah a lot a lot of

celebration on on that and and I think

one of the things that you've said is

we're going to get to abundance on the

backside of of AGI on the backside of

humanoid

robots yeah um you know I think

hopefully we can uh have an outcome that

is half similar to uh the in Banks uh

culture books um which is I think

probably the the best envisioning of um

a semi

utopian uh AI future um and I I think

the best we can do is it's definitely

going to happen so and it's happening

fast so that I think that really we just

want want to try to steer it in um as

positive a direction as possible to try

to do whatever we can to um increase the

probability of a of a great future

um for this I think uh the way in which

U sort of an AI or an AI is created uh

is very important

um you you you kind of do kind of like

grow grow an AGI um it's it's almost

like like raising a a kid but that's

like a Super Genius Like Godlike

intelligence kid um and it matters kind

of like how you rais the kid you know um

one of the things I think that's

incredibly important for AI safety is to

have a a maximum sort of Truth seeking

and uh Curious AI um so I've thought a

lot about AI safety um and my My

ultimate conclusion is that the best way

to achieve AI safety is to um just just

just grow the

AI you know in terms of the foundation

bottle and the fine-tuning um to be

um uh really truthful like like don't

Don't Force It to lie like even if the

truth is

unpleasant it's very important don't

make the AI lie u in fact the you know

the the sort of one of the really the

core the core plot premise of 20 you

know 2001 at SP Odyssey was things went

wrong when they forced the AI to

lie you know like the the um the AI was

uh not allowed uh

let the crew know about the monolith

that they were going to see but it was

also how to take the crew to the

monolith and so the conclusion of the AI

was to kill the crew and take their

bodies to the monolith and so the lesson

there being uh Don't Force an an AI to

to lie or do things that are

axiomatically incompatible like to do

two things that are actually mutually

impossible uh so um you know that's what

we're trying to do with with xai and and

grock is to say like look we want to

just have a maximally truthful uh AI

even if what it says is not politically

correct uh if you wanted to focus on um

being as as accurate you're getting

you're getting a a round of applause

from the audience on on uh on those

comments here uh you know I saw your

Tweet the other day I had I had Ray KW

and Jeffrey Hinton on stage with me

yesterday as as well as uh madat and

then Eric Schmidt and a number of

individuals and I saw your your Tweet

about

um yeah Ry was was generally correct

ahead of many people but we're likely to

have call AGI what you will have AGI

next year and then by 2029 having AI

equally intelligent to the entire human

race um speak to that speed because that

is

insane yeah so I mean I have to give

credit to Ray kwell and being actually

remarkably um accurate in his

predictions so um

um in fact if anything like I think he

was perhaps a bit conservative uh in his

predictions um so if you look at the

amount of of AI compute and the talent

the the sort of human talent that is

going into Ai and the amount of compute

that's going into AI um it's you know at

this point it's it's it appears to be

increasing by a factor of 10 the AI

compute the dedicated AI compute appears

to be growing by a factor of 10 every

six months

you know like so it's like like

basically close to i' say almost like a

100x Improvement per year at least for

the next few years um in AI compute

coming online um and it seems like

probably a lot of the the data centers

maybe most of the data centers that

currently do kind of conventional uh

compute will transition to uh AI

compute

so

um it's it's certainly a good time to be

Nvidia obviously um it's like you know

and you got to also give credit to to

Jensen uh and the the Nidia team for

kind of seeing this coming and um making

what at least currently is the the best

uh AI Hardware out there um

so so so when you have that that level

of compute uh uh growth and

um it's it's sort of on steroids Next

Level it's you know terms of how much

computer's coming online then you're

you're just going to have acceleration

that uh is unprecedented in fact I've

never seen any technology grow as fast

as as AI uh and I've seen a lot you know

I've seen things fast but I've never

seen anything this fast um but you know

like I said I think the the most likely

outcome is um a positive one

um and um you know I think in that

positive scenario there's still

challenges of like well how do we as

humans still have

relevance you know um how do we find how

do we find

purpose how how do we find purpose but I

mean I think sort of a high class

problem to say like well the computers

are so good at at at doing everything

and and

um like said I thought your book is

pretty accurate in terms of the future

being being one of abundance where

essentially goods and services will be

uh in available in such quantity that

that really uh they'll be available to

everyone like basically if you want

something you can just have it

essentially

um because if you got Ai and Robotics uh

the cost of goods and services uh is uh

almost nothing um so um you know if if

you think of like what is an economy an

economy is basically number of people

times average productivity per person at

the point at which you have say Advanced

robotics U and this you know this Tesla

developing Optimus um obviously we have

our cars which are really robots on on

four wheels um and the you know with the

the the latest version of um full stoft

driving which is um AI end to end

photons in and controls out um it really

is um it's really fully AI at this point

um and uh it looks like a car but it's

really a robot on on on Wheels um and uh

and you add the humanoid robots in there

there's there's really no limit to what

the economic output no no meaningful

limit to what the econ economic output

would be so you know looking on the

bright side uh the we are headed for a

future of abundance

um that I think that's the most likely

outcome I think the only scarcity will

that that exists will be scarcity that

we just decide to create artificially

like let's say we just decide that

there's a unique work of art or

something okay well it's just you just

it's just artificial scarcity but but

any kind of goods and services I think

will be extremely abundant everybody I

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listeners all right let's go back to our

episode you know I can't imagine anybody

who's done a better job peering into the

future by actually creating the future

I'm curious how far out do you think

you're able to see how many years out

Beyond Today given the speed of

change

well when when things are changing

rapidly the the ability to predict the

future I think is uh becomes a lot

hotter because of the rate of change is

so great

um but I think some things are fairly

obvious to predict which is that we'll

have um AI or AI That's at a level that

it can really do almost any cognitive I

think really not almost really any

cognitive task that's just a question

when one could debate is it you know

smarter than any human at the end of

next year or is it two years or 3 years

but it's not more than five years that's

for sure um so um yeah and get

prediction predictions predictions I'm

sort of say giving predictions at the

50th percentile of probability so not

not not like it will definitely happen

but if you say what if you ask me like

what's the 50th

percentile um where it's like you know

your kind of over under is kind of even

that that's where I why why I I think

it's probably end of next year before AI

can do better than any individual human

could do um and then uh but there's it's

it's a much higher bar to say well is it

small than um you know human

intelligence collectively but if the

rate of change continues uh that's why I

think probably 2029 or maybe 2030 is

where

um digital intelligence will probably

exceed uh all human intelligence

combined um and and I think it's always

helpful to look at these like

fundamental ratios um you know sort of

physics first principles approach to to

looking at things and um and and

probabilistic yeah and and probabilistic

yeah so yeah it's probabilistic so um

the

uh yeah so um if you look at the ratio

of digital to biological compute so like

like you know all all of say all of the

higher level cognitive if you sum up the

higher level cognitive capacity of of

humans um and then what is the and think

of that as compute then uh well and then

compare that to what what is the uh

digital compute um and the rate at which

this is growing is just bugles the mind

so that's why I think it's you know I

think 2029 or 2030 or thereabouts is is

a it's not a that's I think a reasonable

time frame for where you'd expect the

the cumulative digital compute to

probably exceed the cumulative

biological compute of higher level brain

functions um and then from from then

forever yeah and still and in

dispatching and and uh diverging forever

from there

yeah and and then yeah where do things

go from there I I don't know probably

continues um the I we are moving from

you say if you look at the the living

factors you know the what what is the

constraint on growth um you like last

year it was clearly uh AI chips were the

constraint on growth um then then this

year the one of the biggest constraints

maybe the biggest constraints on on

growth um are voltage step down

Transformers because you know the the

just just getting the power from like a

utility at 300 kilovolts all the way

down to below one volt for the computer

is is a massive amount of voltage uh

step down so it's it's a you know my

sort of very Niche and perhaps not that

funny joke is uh that uh we need

Transformers for Transformers um so we

need voltage Transformers or AI you know

neural net Transformers um that that is

literally the issue uh this year um and

then if we're saying like next year and

years beyond that it's actually just

it's going to be constraints on um

electrical

power um and you've got uh both AI with

very big demands for electrical power

and the transition to sustainable energy

with electric vehicles whatnot also

needing electrical power so it's uh it's

just a lot a lot of electrical power

needs

you know Elon one of

the one of the things that you said

early on when you when you founded

neuralink um which has been amazing

congratulations on that um and we talked

about this with Rey yesterday talked

about high bandwidth BCI uh was I

wouldn't put words in your mouth but I

would say it would be more along the

lines if you can't beat them join them

um when it comes to uh uh you know

merging the neocortex and the cloud can

you I I'm looking forward to it I'm just

curious what your thoughts are about uh

what's driving that I mean add adding

adding that additional uh computational

capacity and sensory capacity to the

neocortex yeah I mean again this is

actually something that in Banks uh in

the culture books which I really

recommend everyone read um that in the

uh culture books there's uh something

called a neural lace so all the humans

have neural lace that's kind

[Music]

of um a very essentially A high

bandwidth uh brain to computer interface

um and

um in at least in the culture books the

it's so good that it actually retains

all of your memories and kind of brain

state so even if your physical body dies

you can kind of re reincorporate in

another physical body and retain you

know pretty much your original memories

and and brain State um

so now is long way from that um we only

just had our first um uh neural link and

a human which is going it's going quite

well um the uh the first patient is

actually able to uh control their

computer uh just by thinking so like

this first the first uh product we call

telepathy where you can control your

computer and phone and through and

through your computer and phone almost

anything just just by thinking you just

lie there and think and you can move the

the mouse coaster around the screen and

things and like you know the we're g to

do patient has agreed to do sort of a uh

like I think a live demo of just it is

qu quadriplegic uh where he literally is

just controlling the the screen he can

like um play video games download

software uh like really anything you can

do with a mouse um just by

thinking um which is pretty wild it it

is it is pretty wild uh let let's turn

to one

last I should say there's a long way to

go from that to uh a whole brain

interface so our current uh neur link

just has a th000 electrodes I think

ultimately you need something which

which has you know probably 100,000 or

or a million electrodes now these are

very tiny very tiny electrodes that

they're tiny wires way smaller than a

human hair um and um you know so there's

this I I just want to emphasize a long

way from from where NE link is today to

having a whole brain interface like um

like the neural a and the Ian Banks uh

novels uh but this this is definitely

physically

possible um and um you know it's sort of

kind of like if you can't beat him join

him you

know um so you know a human brain which

is has a lot of constraints it's you

know it's it's yeah they only have about

maybe 10 watts of higher brain function

um and uh we do a lot with our little 10

watts it's not you know it's impressive

you know that we we' we've buil with um

such a low power computer

really it you know I sort of think it's

like it's it's not bad for a bunch of

monkeys you know

um I'll get some good laughs from that

we've all watched you go from the uh the

Roadster to the model 3 and Y and and

from Falcon 1 to Starship so I think

going from the first implants to uh

something that's got more capacity it's

just just a matter of if not when or a

matter of when not if right hey everyone

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will thank you all right let's go back

to the episode um let's talk to I think

ultimately like said you'll have uh like

um you'll have uh kind of a whole brain

interface U that uh I guess is a sort of

perhaps a form of immortality and and

that if if it can um

uh kind of upload your brain State uh to

you know if your brain state is

essentially stored um you're kind of

backed up on a hard drive I suppose um

then uh you know you can always restore

that brain State into a a biological

body or or or maybe a robot or something

um and I want to emphasize again it's

like you know many years in the future

but but I I we're not breaking any laws

of physics like I think this is this is

probably something that will happen

um the

rate we're building digital super

intelligence it may just be that you

know we'll have digital super

intelligence and it'll just solve the

solve the problem for us um but uh in in

the meantime uh we we'll progressing

with our meat computerss and trying to

try to do do as good job as possible

that's was going to say the uh uh the

the tools that we have are growing at a

super exponential rate that are making

our linear projections of the future

seem boring in some

ways what one last topic my friend uh

which is where you and I first connected

in the world of space congratulations on

Starship 3 uh amazing amazing flight

just really spectacular and we all saw

uh a falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg

last night uh so that was great and uh

oh yeah um uh just again thankful for

the work you're doing you know I it's

fascinating because I grew up at the

late stages of the Apollo and into into

the uh into the uh uh shuttle program

and I can't imagine that any government

would be pushing space as rapidly and

dramatically as you are and so um uh

thank you for what you're doing there

that's all I can say uh absolutely well

I mean the the goal of SpaceX is is it's

just a a much bigger goal than any any

government program which is to

um uh rockets and spacecraft that are

capable of making life

multiplanetary so you know I mean step

one is actually having that as a goal if

you don't have that as a goal you're

definitely not going achieve it um if

you have it as a goal well now at least

you have a chance of achieving it um and

this the thing about Starship is it is

it is the the first rocket where uh

making life multiplanetary and you have

building a self-sustaining City on Mars

is uh is at least possible um uh it's

still obviously an immense amount of

work but but it is the first rocket word

um that is success of in making like

multi plator is at least one of the

possible

outcomes yeah

um I'm wondering if you're willing to

venture a guess on when you'll be on the

moon I think pretty soon

um I'd be surprised if it's if it's

longer than about 3 years uh to be

landing Starships on the moon um and uh

because the rate progression of Starship

is very rapid um you know we're hoping

to do at least uh another maybe five or

six flights this year and with each

successive flight making significant

improvements uh so I think we got a

decent shot of achieving um full

reusability of both stages uh the

booster and the ship uh this year um and

if not this year I think you know knock

on with it's like I think it's a very

high probability of achieving full

reusability uh next year which um really

is the fundamental breakthrough needed

to make life

multiplanetary

um

yeah for for those that that that that

don't don't know the rocket industry

that that well that they may not be

aware that that that this is really the

Holy Grail of rocketry is is full full

and Rapid reusability um because at that

point you're uh you're really just

constrained by your um propellant costs

and Starship you know almost 80% of

pallet is liquid oxygen which is very

low cost um and then the fuel is met

there sort of a little over 20% fuel

which is methane was the lowest cost

fuel so if you have um full rapid

reability uh then um your actual cost

per flight of Starship uh even though

it's it'll be capable of um we think

ultimately 200 tons to uh to orbit uh

will be maybe the

FL say you miss say 200,000 you

said the the the price of the fuel you

said for Starship flight would be how

much yeah the the the I

mean if Most states are um reusable and

with without a refurbishment then you or

without you know you'd have scheduled

maintenance just like a an aircraft but

uh with with if if you get to full

reusability where there's no um no work

required between fights then you you you

you then

um the cost you know is really uh you

the cost of repellent is maybe a million

dollars or less per flight um so then

it's

U number of

flights

magude better

than any

vehicle anybody listen I'm so grateful

thank you for your time today thank you

for not taking my advice when I tried to

get you to uh fund the original X prise

instead of starting SpaceX and uh and

you know everybody here in the room has

a we call a massive transformative

purpose in a moonshot and it's uh we're

living in a day where people can make a

you know to use Steve's word Steve Jobs

words the dent in the universe and

nobody's making a bigger Dent than you

um thank

you thank you for everything let's give

it up for Elon

[Music]

Musk