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The Sphere Play We Couldn't Ignore

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The Sphere Play We Couldn't Ignore

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382 segments

0:00

So Spear, dude, this is wild, guys. You

0:03

remember I was texting you guys and I

0:05

was like, "Hey, I read every single Tik

0:07

Tok comment on every single video the

0:11

first 72 hours when Wizard of Oz came

0:14

out." There were people all around the

0:16

world that were like, "I am going to

0:18

Vegas to see this show. This is the most

0:19

incredible thing ever. This is what

0:21

we've been waiting for." And I was like,

0:23

"Wait a second. Beer has not had a hit

0:25

show." Like that postcards from Earth

0:27

was a piece of junk. Well, it's it's a

0:29

well done nature film. The same way when

0:31

you go to the Omni, you're just going to

0:34

watch whatever documentary, but it's not

0:36

filling seats. But my concern, you

0:37

started sending me these videos from

0:39

that were people were taking from their

0:41

seats like, oh wow, the tornado and all

0:43

this. My concern was when they panned

0:45

over, there's a thousand empty seats and

0:47

empty seats. I didn't realize they were

0:49

only selling that like center section.

0:51

And so in the early videos, I was like,

0:53

"Well, yeah, it seems cooler than we

0:55

thought, but the videos themselves are

0:58

showing like a whole bunch of

0:59

emptiness." Dave, they're like selling

1:01

out every show and almost every single

1:04

review are people that are like, "This

1:07

is the greatest." So, what was really

1:08

unusual about this is that the previews,

1:12

like the people that didn't even see it

1:14

yet, were basically saying that this is

1:15

going to be the worst thing ever

1:17

because, you know, they basically cut up

1:20

The Wizard of Oz. They ruined a classic

1:22

film. They replaced everything with

1:25

digital. No, it's amazing. like all of

1:27

the behind the scenes stuff I've seen on

1:29

what it's actually incredible that they

1:31

took something that was shot in the 30s

1:34

>> watching the regular Wizard of Oz in

1:37

2025. It's not like anybody was going to

1:39

see this movie if not for this

1:42

production that they did at the sphere.

1:44

Okay. So, like I was a little bit

1:45

hesitant cuz I was like, "Oh, wait.

1:47

People hate this idea. It's

1:49

controversial." The second the reviews

1:51

started coming in, I was like, "Hold on.

1:53

This could be the biggest thing that has

1:55

ever happened to the spear in ways that

1:58

I don't think anybody is even thinking

2:00

about yet. Okay. I went all in on this

2:02

trade. I bought a massive amount of call

2:05

options.

2:05

>> And did you do that just after we we

2:08

talked about it? Because I know you

2:09

bought some stock right before we talked

2:11

about it, which what this box shows the

2:12

the 40% gain.

2:14

>> I went all in on that Monday, I believe,

2:18

uh right after the sphere had uh come

2:20

out that Friday. I I think I bought a

2:23

bunch on Friday and then I bought a

2:25

bunch more on Monday. This is like now

2:28

one of my top trades of the year. And

2:30

the reason why it's the perfect trade is

2:33

it is all this is exactly how social ARB

2:36

works. Regular people seeing something

2:40

extraordinary that has potential to have

2:43

a monstrously big impact on a publicly

2:46

traded company. And Spear is basically

2:49

just one thing. Now, we know they have

2:51

MSG network as well as part of that

2:53

company that they're trying to like spin

2:55

out and like get rid of, but for the

2:57

most part, everyone investing in this

3:00

company is essentially investing in the

3:03

ability of this one location in Vegas to

3:06

generate profit because the better that

3:09

this location does, the more likely the

3:12

company is to be able to franchise

3:15

both big and small versions of this

3:18

venue all around the world. Okay, so

3:22

this is the biggest thing that you could

3:24

ever have happen because it's not a

3:25

concert. If you do a concert there,

3:28

number one, it's really expensive,

3:31

right? Number two, you're very limited

3:33

on how often you can show that concert

3:36

because you actually have humans that

3:38

have to get on stage. Concerts have a

3:40

scaling problem that you just can't

3:41

duplicate it. Now, you can reuse the

3:44

graphics that you did in Vegas and and

3:46

do it in London and do it in Abu Dhabi.

3:48

You can do that and have a world tour,

3:50

>> right? But the artists are going to

3:52

perform, you know, maybe three, four

3:54

times a week, cops, something like that.

3:56

>> But a movie, a movie, you can just hit

3:57

replay. But hold on, understand this.

4:00

Yes, the concert has like more than

4:02

triple the number of people there cuz

4:03

they fill every seat, even on the sides.

4:06

But people are basically paying the same

4:09

amount of money to see a live concert as

4:13

they are a 75inut

4:16

film. People are paying $250

4:19

to $350 per ticket to see a 75 minute

4:23

film that can be replicated at an

4:26

infinite number of Spheres if they

4:28

actually had them. And you could do this

4:31

at 2:00 in the afternoon and again at

4:33

6:00 and again at 10:00. I mean, you

4:35

can't do three, four concerts a day.

4:38

It's actually unbelievable. And the fact

4:40

that they did this with an old piece of

4:42

content that was more or less worthless,

4:45

okay? Like they took content that

4:48

probably cost them very little in terms

4:50

of royalty. I don't know the exact

4:52

numbers on the royalty agreement. I'm

4:53

trying to get to the bottom of that now.

4:55

There are different estimates of it that

4:56

that you know, various analysts have.

4:59

They basically take a nothing piece of

5:01

content, add some AI, add some special

5:04

effects, apples dropping from the

5:05

ceiling, wind and little piece of paper

5:08

flying around during the tornado scene.

5:10

They use AI to make it fill the entire

5:13

screen, right? And have it be really

5:14

sharp. And all of a sudden, they're

5:17

generating what? 5,000 tickets at

5:20

hundreds of dollars a ticket multiple

5:21

times a day. This is extraordinary.

5:23

They're going to be running this show

5:25

for months and months and months and

5:27

months. What's even bigger? I know the

5:29

stock has almost doubled here. How much

5:31

is the stock up since? Like 30. It's

5:33

almost doubled, right?

5:34

>> Well, it's it it was up 40% since we

5:36

talked about it.

5:36

>> Yeah, it's basically doubled. Here's the

5:38

greatest part that nobody is really

5:41

talking about yet. Yes. This will help

5:43

them for the franchisee model that

5:46

they've been hoping for and wishing for

5:49

that everybody like didn't know if it

5:50

was going to actually happen. Are people

5:52

gonna actually spend a ton of their own

5:54

money to build these spheres all around

5:56

the world if there if the business model

5:58

is not proven? But now that they have a

6:01

proven business model, they can go out

6:04

and replicate this every year with a new

6:08

film. I'm just going to give you an

6:09

example.

6:09

>> Yeah, they need to start thinking about

6:11

what other nostalgic films

6:12

>> I will give you the best one right now.

6:14

The best one. And I've spoken to some

6:15

other people about this and everybody,

6:17

this seems to be the consensus of what

6:19

everyone's saying uh in comments on

6:22

TikTok. Everybody wants to see Charlie

6:24

in the Chocolate Factory done like this.

6:26

Okay. Like that is like seems to be the

6:28

number one the original.

6:30

>> Yeah. Things you can do that are real

6:31

visual and sensory, right? And you can

6:33

do cool things with especially like some

6:36

of the rooms that they go in with the

6:37

bubbles and smells and things.

6:39

>> Jordan, this is so big. So I think the

6:42

model that has been either discussed by

6:44

the company or at least analysts talking

6:46

about this is that the franchise model I

6:49

believe they would get like roughly like

6:51

a one-third cut. So you essentially have

6:54

all these people spending all the

6:55

upfront money, right? They spend all the

6:58

money, they build the stuff and they

6:59

just send them a copy of this, you know,

7:02

Wizard of Oz deal. They start showing it

7:04

and they get a third of it. It is such a

7:07

profitable model if you can start to

7:09

replicate it and if you could replicate

7:12

it with content as opposed to just

7:16

concerts. And by the way, the concerts

7:18

are still huge because Backstreet Boys,

7:21

people are paying $4 and $500 a seat to

7:26

see Backstreet Boys at the Sphere. Do

7:28

you realize how difficult it was for

7:30

Backstreet Boys to sell tickets prior to

7:32

being in the Sphere? Okay. They took a

7:34

band that could barely sell tickets,

7:37

stuck them in the Sphere, and for some

7:39

odd reason, I have no idea why, but

7:42

people are saying it's the greatest show

7:44

ever at the Sphere.

7:45

>> It's an experience. It's some It's

7:47

different. You've never seen the

7:49

projections. Like, put any band there.

7:52

The Eagles did well there.

7:54

>> Dave, they have cracked the code. And

7:57

this is all happening. People are so

7:59

confused. They're like, "But no one's

8:00

going to pay continue to pay that much."

8:02

I'm like, have you ever heard of what

8:04

people do in Las Vegas? They essentially

8:06

go there and they pay $300 $400 a seat

8:08

to see circ shows that have been around

8:10

for 20 years and they just keep doing it

8:12

again and again and again. And it's

8:14

probably the cheapest thing you're going

8:15

to do in Vegas as opposed to gambling

8:17

your money.

8:18

>> By the way, I don't want to hear this

8:19

about the price because people were

8:20

paying three to $6,000 to go see Taylor

8:23

Swift. So like if you really want to go

8:25

see somebody, like a few hundred bucks

8:26

is just what it is now. It seems like

8:28

>> if you want to have a towel and a place

8:30

to sit at the pool in Vegas, you're

8:32

going to be spending hundreds of

8:33

dollars.

8:33

>> Yes. And the bottom line is people have

8:37

nothing to do. They want things that

8:39

will kind of hit that dopamine, right?

8:40

Everyone has like a higher floor for

8:43

what it takes to to to to like get the

8:45

dopamine going. And the spear is hitting

8:48

our culture, I think, at the perfect

8:50

point in time. So people show up in

8:52

Vegas and they're like, "What are we

8:54

going to do? We want to do something

8:55

cool and new. We don't want to see

8:56

another CIR show, right? Like we don't

8:58

want to just see these random Vegas

9:00

shows that have been around forever. The

9:02

Spear offers something really unique.

9:05

It's the perfect amount of time, 75

9:07

minutes. And Jordan, I'm not talking

9:08

about the concerts. I'm just talking

9:09

about like the Wizard of Oz or whatever

9:11

the next one is that they do and the

9:13

next one after that and the hundred

9:14

after that because they're always going

9:16

to take this really cool nostalgic

9:18

content that we all all love and they're

9:20

going to reinvigorate it in a new way

9:23

for the new generation and for people

9:25

>> yeah really all you need you just need a

9:27

small team of people just thinking and

9:29

piling through old content and saying

9:32

like what is cool what could we make

9:34

really interesting

9:34

>> the actual production cost to make the

9:37

Wizard of Oz report saying that it was

9:39

$80 to $100 million and that likely in

9:42

included the rights and production and

9:44

enhancement and marketing and

9:46

adaptation, all of that stuff. So, $100

9:47

million all in to have a production

9:50

that's ready to hit repeat.

9:52

>> Nothing compared to what they're

9:53

generating from this. I was so excited

9:56

that looking back, I kind of regret not

9:58

going in larger. I went in large, but

10:00

this should have been my number one

10:01

trade of the year if I was thinking

10:03

clearly. We basically have been saying

10:05

this for two years. When they first

10:08

announced the spear, we're opening it

10:10

for the very first time. The outside of

10:11

it being so such a visible part of the

10:15

landscape in Las Vegas, we knew that it

10:17

was going to be a a visual thing that

10:20

was going to be shared on social media

10:21

when they had something big. Everybody's

10:23

going to know about it. And so we just

10:25

have to watch for those those shows that

10:27

are going to be unbelievable. Like

10:29

imagine a Taylor Swift there. That would

10:31

be that would be the next trigger point.

10:33

I don't know. You know, announcing that

10:34

you're going to have like Willy Wonka

10:36

come to the sphere is going to be

10:38

something that moves the stock up

10:39

another 50%.

10:40

>> Yeah, I think Taylor Swift might be too

10:42

big for the sphere.

10:43

>> No, no, Dave. Dave, you got it wrong. We

10:45

Taylor Swift is a oneand done. It would

10:47

be awesome because it would set the

10:49

stage for AAAS artist, but it almost

10:52

looks like they don't even need AAA

10:54

artists on the

10:55

>> The whole story has changed. It's now

10:56

about can now now that we have proven

10:58

that we can do something in this

11:00

location, our high visibility location,

11:02

let's let's clone it around the world

11:04

>> when you want better margins than you

11:06

would get out of like a Taylor Swift

11:07

show, right? Because she would demand

11:10

such of so much of the ticket price.

11:12

Jordan, getting to your point that you

11:14

made earlier, Spear has come out, I

11:16

think it was in their last earnings

11:18

perhaps, and they said that based on the

11:22

success of their filmed content, they

11:25

might start to transition more of the

11:28

showtimes from concerts to film content.

11:31

So, that tells you all you need to know.

11:33

As a social trader, I have this thesis

11:36

now that the first part of it is over.

11:38

Everybody knows the Wizard of Oz is a

11:40

huge deal. it's going to impact

11:41

earnings. If you go on to X, there's a

11:44

couple really good I'll call them like,

11:46

you know, re I guess retail analysts. A

11:50

one of them is a social AR trader that

11:51

follows our channel. He DM'd me today.

11:54

His name is Paris analyst on X. But

11:59

there's another guy that I sent y'all,

12:02

Kevin L. Mack, Mak. So Kevin L. Mack has

12:06

done a lot of work on Sphere. So, I

12:09

would definitely go on X and I would

12:11

pull up Kevin L. Mack, Mak, and read

12:16

through all of his analyst notes because

12:19

he's actually doing a really good job

12:21

looking under the covers of how this is

12:23

going to impact earnings. He's tracking

12:25

uh how many seats are being pre-sold

12:27

going into Q4. I don't know that either

12:30

of these guys have done a lot of work on

12:32

what this meaningfully means for the

12:35

next couple years because I actually

12:37

think this provides product market fit

12:40

that goes out years on Spear. I think

12:42

it's a massive gamecher for the entire

12:45

company. If they could just get rid of

12:46

that MSG network that is nothing but a

12:49

distraction and there are rumors that

12:52

that might actually happen that would be

12:54

a really big deal as well. So, part one

12:58

of the social arb trade is over. Uh,

13:00

part two is just beginning. I am not

13:03

selling my spear. I'm going to

13:06

transition from a highly levered call

13:09

options position, transition that slowly

13:13

into more of a long-term equity position

13:16

in Spear. Because every single time I

13:19

talked to someone about this, guys, I

13:21

were I was around a lot of investors the

13:23

past week. I was doing robot stuff and

13:27

not I don't think one person I spoke to

13:29

knew this was a publicly traded company.

13:31

I was like wait a second how does do

13:33

people not realize that Spear is a

13:35

publicly traded company? Is this like an

13:36

unknown thing for a lot of investors?

13:39

>> You should be hanging around with this

13:40

many people who don't watch your show. I

13:42

mean it's clear it's clear.

13:43

>> Did you say don't you even know who I am

13:46

>> and then storm out of the meeting?

13:48

>> The people I was hanging around are

13:50

like5 to$25 million check writers each.

13:53

So, I don't think they're watching a lot

13:54

of our show. Some of them do, actually.

13:56

>> You need to get business cards with the

13:58

show on it. These are the people who

13:59

should be watching us.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the success of the Sphere in Las Vegas, specifically focusing on how the venue transformed from a struggling entertainment space into a profitable business model by utilizing immersive, nostalgic film productions like 'The Wizard of Oz'. The speakers highlight how this 'reproducible' model, which replaces expensive and logistically difficult live concerts with high-margin, scalable screenings, has significantly boosted the company's prospects and stock performance. They also discuss the potential for future nostalgic content and the long-term investment opportunity this represents as the company explores a franchise model for building similar venues globally.

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