Flying Cars Have Arrived! eVTOL Panel: Archer, Joby, Wisk | All-In Summit 2024
1165 segments
for our next panel we are going to have
uh a quick introduction to each of the
three electric vertical takeoff and
Landing vehicle companies the evall
companies we'll see a video for uh
introducing Joby and then uh Adam from
Archer is going to introduce Archer and
then Brian from wi and then we're going
to have a conversation uh be back in a
minute
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w
I founded archer in 2018 to change the
way the world
moves Urban congestion isn't sustainable
this leaves the average American stuck
in traffic for dozens of hours per
year to combat that challenge we built
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midnight all electric aircraft
purpose-built to fly back-to-back trips
over congested
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cities midnight takes off vertically
like a helicopter then his propellers
transition down to fly like an airplane
it's designed to be piloted and carry
four passengers and can travel at speeds
up to 150
mph since 2018 we've made an incredible
amount of progress to bringing the
midnight aircraft to
Market our nearly 10,000 person team has
designed built and tested the key
enabling Technologies to bring electric
Aviation to Market this has enabled us
to raise nearly $1.5 billion to
get however our goal is the same since
day one to get to commercial
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launch our high volume manufacturing
facility in Georgia will open up later
this year and we have incredible
partners that are helping us bring this
Vision to
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life stellantis the owner of Jeep Ram
and Maserati has invested nearly $300
million to
date United Airlines has ordered up to
$1.5 billion of midnight aircraft and
with Southwest our goal is to offer
passengers 3-hour multimodal Journeys
across
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Cali we have an industry-leading
contract with Air Force and we recently
delivered our first aircraft as part of
that
contract in La we recently announced
plans for flight networks connecting
Sofi Stadium USC LAX and Beyond we can't
wait to bring midnight to a city near
Europe
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Peter teal reminded us yesterday that
flying cars are the peak of the hardware
Revolution that never quite happened but
as you just saw we're closer than ever
to making it a reality the aircraft that
the three of our companies design take
off vertically like helicopters they do
a complex maneuver to transition onto
the wing into wingborne flight and Fly
Like an aircraft when the founder of our
company Larry Page first joined this
Mission the technologies that enable
these aircraft to fly were just starting
to become possible the team that I lead
has built the enabling Technologies in
electrification and autonomy that's
making this possible you see the prior
five generations of aircraft that we've
designed here on the screen behind me
and that iterative design build approach
has enabled us to get to the point where
we are building now Generation 6 which
is the first candidate for an fa
certification of a passenger autonomous
aircraft this aircraft is designed to
take advantage of all of the prior
technologies that we developed through
those prior iterations and to operate
without a pilot on board on those
missions there's two technology trends
that we are all uh in that we are all
using to create these aircraft Motors
and the the same simplification that's
coming to your cars and batteries and
the same advances that are coming to
your cars and also to your cell phones
and second autonomy and autonomy has a
lot of parts to it so we have to for the
first time in a commercially certifiable
way show how we can operate and
supervise an aircraft from the ground
display information in in a way that is
safe from a human factor standpoint to
supervise that aircraft to use sensors
on the airplane in the same way you
would for an autonomous ground vehicle
to create the software and the
computation to be able to then fly that
aircraft autonomously but when you make
robots people don't go away they change
what they're doing and so we use those
aircraft to actually do deployment
testing in networks here in Los Angeles
yeah last year we flew the first
electric Vall aircraft in the Los
Angeles area and we showed what's
possible with these aircraft and how
people can engage with them we are also
working on the human interface with air
traffic control because again even
though we have an autonomous aircraft
our aircraft still has to interface with
today's air traffic control system like
what you saw yesterday from weo we use
existing flying cars AKA helicopters
that are piloted to take that sensor
package and those computation uh
abilities and put them onto of a a
piloted helicopter to perfect the
algorithms that we use for doing things
like Det protecting and avoiding other
traffic in environments uh where there's
different lighting and where the
aircraft that you might collide with
potentially that you want to avoid is
above or below the Horizon we also have
to be able to fly these aircraft without
the presence of GPS as we see in
conflicts around the world today we
cannot rely on GPS to be able to fly an
autonomous aircraft so now once you have
that technology stack you need to turn
it into an actual airplane and all the
things that Peter talked about about
potentially being a bad industry to to
go into uh in the 9s are now becoming
ever more important the ability to uh do
aerodynamics to do mechanical
engineering to create these aircraft are
now more important than ever and uh by
the end of this year we'll be flying
this aircraft which will be the first
attempt at certifying a passenger
carrying autonomous aircraft so let's
bring the guys out and we'll talk about
it all right
well I think that there's a lot of
people that probably need an
introduction to Vall in a more basic way
before we talk about the technology
whether it's the actual vehicle itself
or whether it's the um the world's best
pilot if you will MH
um for the folks out here if they are
going to interact with these systems
whether autonomous or not what do you
think are going to be the biggest issues
that they are going to care about and
will want resolved before they see it in
their Community maybe Joe B if you want
to start yeah I think the number one
issue and you know for everybody when
you're getting in an aircraft is is this
going to be safe but then for both the
the passengers what they care about is
is something that's going to
dramatically change the way they they
move around their cities and save them
time and in order to do that you need to
have takeoff and landing locations that
are located both close to where you are
and close to where you want to go and so
priority uh 2 through n in people's
priority stack is about noise and making
an acoustic signature that's going to uh
get communities to see this as uh a a
real advantage and uh something that's
uh increases the value of uh of living
in that Community because you're you're
close to this new mode of
transportation um do you guys think that
when you see a thousand of these things
flying around let's let's just take a
place uh in Meno Park
California
um are they going to be forced to have
very specific sort of like air highways
that they have to adhere to or what is
the best thinking right now in terms of
how the regulatory bodies are going to
sort of enable you guys to actually fly
commercially as quickly as possible he
brand turn you if we if we just take a
step back the product exists they're
called helicopters and a helicopter is
actually way more complex than what
we're building we're actually building a
much more simplified version of what
exists it's safer it's fully redundant
and so it should Inspire confidence for
people to to want to come and take these
vehicles the way they'll start though is
going to be really slow if you think
about every major city in the world they
have hospitals those hospitals have
helicopters this product exists
everywhere so if you took all three of
us you took our most bullish estimates
that we have and you tripled them we
still would not even replace helicopters
so to get to the point where you're
asking thousands of vehicles in the air
over one city or even hundreds is pretty
far away we could all deploy tens of
thousands of vehicles we could the three
of us be a trillion dollar companies and
there still would not be thousand
hopefully there still would not be you
know thousands of vehicles in the air
but to make the product really really
great you do want liquidity you do want
a lot of vehicles in on dense routes so
you don't have to worry about is it
available is it not available like an
Uber right you just it's thumbs up it's
available or thumbs down it's not
available it doesn't matter what seat
you get it saves your time that's where
we're all trying to get but I think just
to frame it sorry Adam is it is it a
thing where it is like uber where
there's going to be a version where you
get in with people you don't know or you
think this is just like one person
Provisions it for themselves and then
they go from point A to point B no
absolutely the vision is uh you know a
service that's available for everyone
the good news is you can scale these
vehicles because they're just much more
simple than helicopters we don't have
all the limiting factors that
helicopters have so you can put a lot
more from the air you can push the
prices way down and make it very
affordable Bri it's also a dramatically
faster trip so you're you're in it for a
few minutes to get across La instead of
in in Uber where you might be sitting in
traffic for an hour or two right um
yesterday we heard from Teedra from the
CEO of weo their first launch city was
Phoenix the layout was good but mostly
it was really regulatorily um amenable
amenable um Brian what is the version of
Phoenix for Evol is there a city
somewhere that has said we want this now
come and help us figure this out yeah
Houston Houston is is where we're
working most specifically um and it's
not just because Woody lives there
either um but but seriously Houston is
um you know the the Airport network in
Houston is actually quite good
connecting couple of the airports around
uh the Houston area it turns out that
operating at airports initially is
actually quite a good place to start
because like I said you know these
aircraft they come with a footprint you
know they really come with like people
and operations and if you've ever seen
an airport tarmac area um it's you can't
just drop that in the middle of a city
on day one so starting at airports as an
initial operating area is quite good um
it turns out you know what you saw in
that video was from an airspace
integration standpoint and where we were
going on routes and so on um New Zealand
is has been incredibly Forward Thinking
in terms of how to evolve their airspace
Network so they have more um digital
Communications more of an ability to
integrate un crude aircraft with crude
aircraft in the same airspace and so
we've been doing quite a lot of work in
New Zealand on that front but hold on I
I mean I think it's to me super clear
this does not start in the US I really
think it starts internationally I think
the regulatory environment here both
both of us work in the UAE pretty
extensively I mean if I'm going to guess
just on the press that you put out Joe B
met the head of the um civil aviation
Authority in the UAE yesterday I'm
leaving tonight on a plane to go meet
him as well and so you know we are
targeting Abu Dhabi they've been
targeting Dubai and the reason is there
is a you know a very heavy support for
new innovation and the challenge like
the reason why I feel like all three of
us are up on stage here is probably
because of the the whole Woody video
that we just watched we all learned
about NASA as young kids and were
inspired by new things but the challenge
is the existing environment today makes
that very hard and these are companies
that were started in America with
American Engineers that have raised
capital from the American Venture
community that are listed on the
American stock exchanges yet we still
can't launch in America and that is
really challenging and I think part of
it is back to what Bill Gurley talked
about last year a regulatory capture the
walls are huge to climb and in fact the
more things go bad with the incumbents
the harder it is for us I don't think
that's done on purpose but that's very
challenging for us now I I I would I
would say that the amount of bipartisan
support on on both sides of the aisle in
Washington is off the charts the amount
of local support uh support with States
uh it the you know yesterday I was in
Montreal at the uh International civil
aviation uh Association conference uh
where they ConEd this is the first time
and they were convening 1800 people uh
to focus on uh Advanced Air mobility and
so this is really exciting to see how
much momentum there is and it's
imperative that the US continue to lead
Aviation is one of our most important
exports uh it's been vital to our
economy and it is really really
important that uh we we lean forward and
we make the the certification process
and just to double click on this for a
second I can see how Joe Ben and Adam
you guys Pure Play startups you know you
have to find the
Willing
parent um but you have the benefit of
Boeing mhm um and is that why your
answer was Houston is because they have
that I guess regulatory gravitas to be
able to go and help there or no you're
still mostly on your own trying to
figure no no yeah so we so the yeah the
Journey of our company was obviously you
know started by Larry started by Larry
became Kittyhawk turned into a joint
Venture and and uh and and eventually um
we sold the company to Boeing uh last
year and uh so we still operate as an
independent company a lot like the whmo
um Google relationship right now uh for
us the difference is we're really trying
to Pioneer the pathway to the
introduction of autonomous aircraft at
the same time and that's a longer
Journey so Joe Ben and Adam are are
going to be operating before us there's
no doubt because piloted aircraft are
coming before these uncrewed aircraft
um I think autonomy is key to the future
of aviation in the small airplane space
if you look at the the um the the the
causes of of incidents and the accident
rates in helicopters right now they're
just unacceptable and um and I think
that that can be solved by automation
I'm really passionate about that so for
us we're on a longer journey and the
question is then uh on that Journey um
how do we make sure that the US leads in
that and we're trying to Pioneer the
regulatory Pathway to ensure that it
happens here in the United States but
we're also working around the globe like
I mentioned in New Zealand where there
are Regulators who potentially want to
lean forward and innovate on airospace
or some other aspects of the problem
that we're trying to solve I mean Adam
Adam mentioned the concept of regulatory
capture but one of our besties Sky
Dayton who's on joby's board wrote this
great essay and one of the things that's
clear is that a lot of the pushback to
the vision that you have Brian actually
comes from the pilots unions themselves
right I I think it's a bit of a weird
set of incentives no do you want to just
talk about that for a second I think
it's less salacious than that and more
uh clinical I mean the the and I'll give
an example well so I have my vision for
the future is that we're going to have a
prolific amount of uncrewed small
aircraft that are operating doing that
kind of missions that we're just talking
about but that large C pilot large
aircraft are going to be piloted for
probably as far as the eye can see I
think the Practical aspect of it
honestly is that in 2023 here's a
statistic for you that just blows my
mind as a developer of airplanes in 2023
there were 30 million Global flights
carried billions of Passenger implements
number of people that got on board the
airplane um scheduled service you know
Airlines zero accidents zero what zero
in 2023 zero so so it's it's less
salacious than than uh there's a cabal
that's trying not to certificate things
there is a natural conservatism in the
system of holy
we've done it it's working don't change
it so when new technology shows up it I
I understand the perspective of a
regulator that's sitting on the other
side of that wall and it's saying man
this is kind of working um okay then
just to put you on the spot I mean I can
see you know when Joe Ben and Adam say
hey point A to point B instead of hours
in traffic you're there in 10 minutes if
there are really no pilot errors unlike
in cars where there's still far too many
unnecessary deaths
how do you measure the
incremental justification for the
investment let alone the reason to the
statistic that I just gave you is for
large aircraft scheduled air carriers if
you then look at the small airplane
Market or you look at helicopter markets
it is it is orders of magnitude it's
well it's Infinity more you know so but
it's it's it's way worse and so the
question is how do you bring the level
of safety of those large aircraft how do
you bring that same level of safety down
into the get rid of recreational pilot
you have to start you just have to start
I mean there is definitely this panel
exists in China guess what there's two
groups that are already certified there
they started that's how you do it you
have to get moving you have to set an
environment where we can all start
flying stuff when we can do it A to B
and when you're using a large aircraft
you're dividing the two pilots expense
amongst 300 seats or 100 seats and in
this case you would have a pilot on a
Joby flight with which really the
Pilot's not doing anything there's
they're not flying it so it's they're
there to make the passengers feel safer
is my understanding
yeah the pilot you know there there are
even with with what Brian's doing uh
with the incredible pioneering work on
um on autonomy you you still have
somebody on the ground who's uh making
sure that the weather is going to be
safe and uh lots of other operational
Logistics the benefit is you get to take
that person out of the aircraft and put
them on the ground so you get to put
another passenger in the aircraft um you
get a lot of operational flexibility uh
because you're the the you don't
necessarily have to have the pilot and
the plane at the same location at the
same time uh a pilot can over time begin
to operate multiple do the pilot do in
ajobi because my understanding is it's
automated so they're sitting there just
monitoring it they're making sure that
all of the operations are going to go
safely the pilot AR flying there's a
there's sticks right I
mean there is the option for the the the
pilot to fly fly with the sticks as well
so in an emergency situation they would
take over but it's autopilot essentially
there are a lot of a lot of computer
systems that are helping the pilot fly
and when one rotor goes down I mean one
of the great things about this is when
you have a
helicopter you know a rotor breaks you
die essentially we have layer on layer
of redundancy we have six six propellers
and each one's driven by separate motors
with each separate inverter with each a
separate battery pack and so it's just
you know the same thing with the flight
computers in the uh everything's
massively redundant what would it take
and that's what we did in big commercial
airlines which is why uh you get the
incredible safety that that Brian was
talking about yeah I mean we haven't had
a passenger death in the United States I
think the last one was 2009 and the last
three passenger jets that went down the
United States were all regional Jets
which we all know that there's a
collection of problems there um so what
would it take theoretically when you're
doing your you know edge cases what are
the edge cases that are the most
challenging in terms of
safety well so uh you know with our
initial certification we are not
certifying for flight in known icing for
example so if you if you live in the
North Northeast uh you know there will
be uh a few percent of the time where we
won't be able to offer service you'll
just ground them during ice conditions
you're not going to JFK when it's
snowing well when it's snowing you may
be able to go but if it's there's
certain conditions where where you get
heav icing in terms of concerns and
things that could make these go down
exactly so is there anything else though
that could you know what's like the
what's like the the wind speed or
gusting kind of condition Max and so on
uh so we're actually very tolerant to
that it was actually it was interesting
proba better than a wing than a winged
aircraft I would imagine right right
yeah and and so there's these these
folks at Nasa who are working on
Wildfire prevention yeah and they came
they've they came and did a not the
welfare prevention folks but NASA came
and did did an acoustic survey where
they put out uh a whole array of
microphones and we flew the aircraft in
Hover and transition uh overlight Etc
and measured the acoustic signature and
um showed that it was really low and
could fit in the environment in terms of
uh but yesterday I was having a
conversation with them on Wildfire
prevention they're like these kinds of
aircraft are going to be game changers
for for Wildfire because with
helicopters they can't handle really
turbulent conditions when you've got
lots of convection from the wildfire and
and you have six Motors we have six
rotors and so there's this thing called
Vortex ring state that uh affects
vertical takeoff and Landing aircraft
and you aren't going to have all six
rotors go into Vortex ring State at the
same time and you can also one of the
cool things they found out with the
Osprey is if you just tilt the rotors
forward that you can get very very
quickly get out of Vortex ring state so
basically these new new classes of
aircraft and what you can do with
electric propulsion and I I don't think
we've talked about that enough is is
what a GameChanger electric propulsion
is can you talk about the the acoustic
issue so give us some context for the
decibel tolerance where what and what
was you know in a city and give us a
comparison to stuff that exists today a
big truck diesel truck helicopter like
and what do we need to be at for this to
be ubiquitously accepted in cities and
then what's the technology needed to get
the acoustic breakthroughs needed yeah
so the background noise level in in
cities is around 65 DB and so we set
that as our threshold for this is the
level that we want uh want things you
know want aircraft to be below during
takeoff and Landing you want you don't
want to be Beyond background right we
want to be below 45 DB in overflight um
and and we've achieved both of those
goals uh you know you asked about other
things you know I think a garbage truck
is uh 80 or 90 DB every they're the
worst exactly the worst like every 10 DB
is an order of magnitude more noise
energy so it's uh you know a jet engine
is like 110 DB helicopters are between
80 and 100 DB uh the other thing about
helicopters that people find really
annoying is it's this low frequency
and that low frequency sound travels
long distance through the atmosphere and
so what's the tech needed like it shakes
buildings and really what was yeah
what's the tech needed to bring the
acoustic like how hard is well I mean we
you know when I when I started joy in
2009 uh so it's 15 uh 15 years ago uh
this week so it's like I've been working
on this a long time I've been dreaming
about it since I was a kid
um and it's it's incredible to see the
industry that we've built and uh and
again yesterday to see like thousands of
people gather just to focus on all of
the issues of bringing this to their
cities around the world so that that's
really exciting um
and the the you know the roll out and
and the impact that this is going to
have on cities is just really really
exciting so let me ask you guys you're
eff just you're spinning the propellers
slower that's what you're doing that's
the electric engine do that just create
lower noise that that gets you like 90%
of the benefit and then from there you
work to all the little efficiencies to
get that stuff out so let me ask you
guys about like the the convenience of
owning a car and like America kind of
popularized this idea that everyone
should own a car and then we all got a
car the benefit of a car is it's point
to point I can go from any point a to
any point B um how do you guys think
about the challenge of it's such a pain
in the ass to go to a port just like
it's a pain in the ass to go to a bus
station take a bus or you know Subway go
to a spot in New York it works where
things are dense enough but like in most
cities in the United States this is like
it is preferable to take a car because I
can do point A to point B and my
convenience which my time is always
faster taking a car how how do you kind
of think about the calculus of the
benefit here when I have to go to a port
to be able to take the vehicle to the to
the next Port I I think you know your
spot on I think of where we are today is
very similar to where uh the automotive
industry was was in the 1890s where it
was before we had the ability to mass
produce cars we we were building tens
and then hundreds of cars and uh that
didn't give the scale and so what we
were using cars for was taxis we are in
a similar mode today where we are going
to use these aircraft as taxis uh we
still need to save people time and so
there's only going to be select routes
where this is a game changer because of
the multimodal nature uh where you need
to uh and you may not have a takeoff and
Landing location exactly where you want
to leave from and go to but over time if
we can get the acoustic signature down
if we can make these aircraft even
quieter than they are today rather than
needing to go to a a dedicated ver port
to do this the dream is to eventually be
able to land them at your house Adam
let's talk about um propulsion for a
second energy density cost those
trade-offs speed these are all variables
that kind of just work opposing each
other um what were some design decisions
you guys made and um did you have to
remake some of those did you change your
mind at some point and just walk us
through that process the biggest
challenge I think of building these
aircraft is just the time it takes to do
it it is very expensive and it does not
fit any typical model meaning the
Venture guys don't like it and so
they're like sorry you want a billion
dollars UPF front to build this like
that's terrible you rejected me you
rejected me I don't think I met with you
uh like everybody rejected probably all
of us up here so it's not a typical you
know what I mean like Mom that's the
reality so there was this crazy period
of time in 2021 with the capital markets
opened up it was a dream scenario raise
a lot of money from the public markets
that was nuts so that allowed this to
happen and then from there it for for me
what we did was we said okay what is the
business case meaning we thought when we
looked at like what are these we call
them hero routes where there's a lot of
people doing these trips like Manhattan
to JFK it's like 30 million people go
from Manhattan to one of the three big
airports in New York okay so all we have
to do no brainer that's a no-brainer
yeah all we have to do is have a couple
around the city which already exist
there's downtown Wall Street Hort wests
side and just put them into the three
airports and that'll be an amazing thing
to start with okay so short routes 20 to
50 mile routes now let's design an
aircraft around that the fastest thing
we can do to get to Market so we don't
die before the investors decide nah
we're kind of like done with this one
now on to the next thing oh AI here
let's everybody go all in on AI and so
I'm just moving as fast as we can so
that was the biggest trade-off so it was
always what is the minimum thing we need
to do to get that done so you need to
look at speed range and payload payload
is definitely the hardest because
batteries are heavy and there's just
physics you're always fighting and then
speed the difference between these
planes want to fly around 120 mph you go
faster it's just more drag it just kills
your battery faster so you don't the
difference between 120 150 on a 10 Mile
flight doesn't really matter it's more
of how do you go at least that 20 to 50
mile route and go at least you know call
it 120 m per hour and do that as fast as
possible what kind of batteries what
kind of batteries did you guys choose
what lium ion cells commercial offthe
shelf stuff uh Molly cell makes you can
find the cells today there's millions of
them that are made and power tools and
supercars and pretty conventional what's
the range with the range of the aircraft
we're designing to go up to 100 miles
but the the real design is around back
to Rapid backtack 20 to 50 MP what do
you guys all need in terms of Battery
Technology improvement from where we sit
today or do you not and what's on the
horizon in terms of Battery Technology
improvements what does that unlock in
terms of range yeah so the batteries
that we're certifying our aircraft with
or have a specific energy of about 300
wat hours per kilogram to put that in
context when I started the company in in
2009 we had cells that had sufficient
specific power uh to do a vertical
takeoff but also so uh we're at about
170 W hours of kilogram so we've almost
doubled the specific energy in the cells
over the last 15 years um that we have
cells in our lab and then there's a
third dimension which really matters is
This Is The Life and uh so we have the
the cells we're uh taking the
certification are give us a uh 10,25 M
flights so our our kind of sweet spot is
is also in that uh in those shorter
range flights and we want to be able to
do a lot of flights between uh between
Replacements both for the environmental
impact of it but also from the economics
of replacing those battery packs and
when the the plane takes off that's a
lot of um energy usage the the wings
tilt forward and now you're flying more
like these ospre is as a plane the
energy goes way down the consumption and
then on Landing you got to be very
careful and use a lot more energy is
that correct yeah and there's there's uh
different trade-offs you can make
basically the more propulsors you have
uh the smaller each propulsor is and the
and the heavier you're disc loading and
the higher the amount of power you're
using in Hover the the harder you're
pulling on the batteries um the uh but
then more propulsors also gives you more
redundancy so there's this uh there's a
trade there breast tax when do you each
think we're going to pick um a quarter
in a year so you know fourth quarter
2025 second quarter 2026 you all have to
answer it uh you agreed backstage um and
Americans will be able to give money to
get in one of these not a test flight
you know in a major city in America um
to to when we all be able to use it uh
not just yours yeah these guys should
answer for themselves but I think
they'll get it done in uh in 2026 and
you should yell at it's different ah man
I don't um first quarter first quarter
26 I want to give him some heat we'll be
we'll be a couple years after that but
that's an incredible thing I mean
we're less you know a year plus away
that's yeah that's crazy now you should
um tell tell me how you feel about my
expectations
yeah I I think pretty clearly there's a
route to do this internationally next
year and so I think we'll launch with
passengers next year um he said in the
US I know I'll start there I'll start
there in in in 2025 job is to make sure
we have a safe I think probably fourth
quarter I think we have a my job is to
create a safe aircraft if Pete Budaj
called and said hey there's a way to do
this in the US I'm going to help cut
through all the red tape and we're going
to help you get it done like my phone's
on I'm ready call me I we'll find a way
to do it Pete why didn't we invite Pete
he seems Dynamic so he was actually yeah
we uh we nearly had him yeah very close
so I I think we're on a on a Time
timeline which we publicly announced to
uh to begin commercial Service uh in the
UAE next year um you think Q4 2025 as
well I I think that's it's likely back
end I think it's at the back end of next
year let me let
me we will begin non uh you know begin
operations before that but uh we will
not being to buy a buy a ticket have you
figured out the flight profile that
you're going to start with like it's
airport to X or something like that or
we have we have uh four ver ports that
are um uh that we're planning to build
in in Dubai and uh the RTA which is I
would like one from the airport to the
wind which opens in 2027 yeah from Dubai
to the new win it's a little far cuz
it's in rock so it's a little far away
there's a win in Dubai that's opening
opening a win that's we got to go we got
to
go oh kidding aside I want to talk to
you guys we talked yesterday with about
this you know he said it's taken longer
to get approval to launch Starship than
it did to take launch so this sort of
push on regulatory we're hearing over
and over again you work with the FAA
closely um can you just describe the
path to bring them along get the
certifications that you need um and how
much of a push or a pull that is in each
of your businesses yeah I mean I guess
I'll just start you know obviously um
from the autonomy standpoint
specifically you know we're really we're
trying to push the frontier and so
whenever whenever you're engaging with a
regulator no matter if it's Aviation or
if it's biotech or some other thing if
you're really really on the frontier it
means that that the regulator doesn't
necessarily understand the technology
any better than you do and so part of it
needs to be kind of a journey where
you're going together to really learn
how to make it safe at some point um you
need to be regulated you know there
there needs to be a process of you
putting forth um you know the engaging
in what what are the requirements you
putting forth here's how we're going to
meet those requirements and then as a
process I think that you know honestly
from my standpoint that actually works
okay um I just wish that it was a little
more responsive or engaging on some of
the like deep technical subjects that we
have to advance do they have the people
inside the that's part of the challenge
so part of the challenge is that is that
in aviation partially because of what
Peter teal said yesterday you know
there's sort of a generation of you know
if you went into Aviation when I went
into Aviation the demographics were
completely upside down people you know
people were retiring new people weren't
coming into the industry and so all many
of the experts in the fa that that have
regulated some of these systems that
have created really safe airplanes have
retired um there's a lot of new people
coming into the industry which is great
but um don't necessarily have the
expertise of having built some of the
systems that we're now building and so
there's some way that we almost need to
get people to come through the industry
and then I think this is a really
important point and it's countered to
what RFK Jr has been saying over and
over again and this is why I I push back
on him I'm sorry this is off topic there
there is a very important reason to have
people from industry become part of the
regulatory framework for regulating the
industry because if they don't they
don't know how and they're going to have
a a complete aversion to embracing
technological innovation that's why I
think it's important that there is a
rotation of people that are you know
consequentially not economically
motivated in some way but that
understand the technology and can
motivated but in that let me ask you
guys in markets where there is a
regulatory framework that allows for
Accelerated output of innovation let's
take China for an example um there's a
good ab test maybe underway right now
what companies are doing eval technology
in China how good are they and then
given the way that the Chinese
government can kind of step in and
accelerate outcomes are we going to see
and are we seeing uball and Technology
you know kind of coming to Market fast
and in a kind of accelerated way in
China like we're seeing with nuclear and
other tools that the government is a
priority in a mandate yeah I mean you
have you have ehang and autoflight and
they uhin and you know a bunch of them
are making great progress there's a lot
of enthusiasm in China the regulatory uh
pathway there is uh uh more forward
leaning I I think as as Adam pointed out
and uh I think you're going to see more
more rapid iter iteration I think the
good news here in the US is that the fa
is uh in the process of releasing
something called Mosaic which for
aircraft that are smaller than ours uh
aircraft with with like two passengers
in them more of a personal ownership
type of thing that's going to allow much
more uh rapid development and a lighter
a lighter touch from the fa just to put
this in context the fa has done I think
an incredible job and they've really
been leaning in when I went and first
talked to them in 2009 they they thought
this was like absolutely crazy like they
just did not think we were going to be
able to build an electric air aircraft
let alone one that could take off and
land vertically and which was quiet and
all these all these different dimensions
we then you know began working with them
regularly in 2015 uh began formal
certification 2018 had uh stage 4 G1 and
in 2020 G2 uh and and then G3 and now
we're working on stage four so it you
know with each uh you know we are
building momentum we are writing all the
rules uh it's very heavy lifting uh
and told me once he uh cuz has been kind
of the first through the through the
pipeline there and he said I feel like a
pipe cleaner for for how to certify
these things and uh I guess I there's
one thing I would just throw into the
regulatory like context just just
because I I think you're bringing up a
good point is it's not like these things
were sitting on the shelf and and a
regulator was sitting somewhere saying
you can't use that we have been on a
journey that we just all talked about
getting these things ready so they're
now just at the point where they're
ready and the question is can we take
that first step in the US to really get
it done and does the US do they approach
that from a culture of let's just try
something if we get it wrong we can
iterate it or it's is it more we must
get this right because there's all kinds
of consequences political or other it's
so much more simple than that they want
to do it the people at the top are
actually genuinely very excited former
fa administrator Billy Nolan stepped
down from his role joined Archer the new
one Mike Whitaker came from an e talk
company they were very excited to do it
the challeng is with probably most
regulatory you know setups is not a lot
of incentive it's not like there's a
downside to not doing it a lot of
disincentive to do it meaning if
something goes bad it's there's only
downside there and it's a slog and it's
hard like this is hard this is not easy
to go through all this there's the
incentives are not great and then on top
of all of it there's no policy saying
hey America needs to be Innovative we
need to go do this let's go and get it
why is there no mandate like it would be
great if some leader said
you guys need to get this done and we
need to have these things flying safely
in the next 36 months like how does that
happen in our current system I can
understand Happ Trump literally put out
a video on it he put out a video agenda
number whatever 39 or something like
that where he talked about building
future cities I'm guessing he went to
Dubai and then I'm sorry but is that
something Adam that we could change
through an executive order I think it's
culture you have to change meaning like
we will do this and break down all the
barriers to get it done because it's
it's not that hard like you can like
we've all laid out the rules to certify
like why can't you let us just go do the
tests and then if we do the tests you
check them off we're
good that if you're a bureaucrat if
you're working in one of these
organizations if it goes poorly you're
in big trouble if it goes well are you
well the SEC had you know this mandate
it's very similar to you know allow more
accredited investors sophisticated
investors allow people you know to to
take tests and to just allow more access
to private companies and invest which
would be good for a company and they and
they have slow walked it so I think
that's part of the problem is just to
build on what ad okay let's just say the
SEC doesn't do anything it or they do it
and they make a mistake nobody at the
SEC will get fired just like I I don't
think the culture is that if you know
something if a commercial airline has an
issue or for example in the 73 Max 737
Max issue did more people at Boeing get
fired did more people at the FAA get
fired or did nobody get fired nobody
Aviation Aviation is different on the
like in the comparison with the SEC as
an example like Aviation is different
like actually Aerospace is different and
and and I would just call out one thing
that I saw on the stage yesterday which
which really hit me if you saw elon's
face when he talked about the safety of
the astronaut like you saw his face he
was almost crying yes he was almost
crying and that's what Aerospace is all
about and so I there is a um the the
reason that the industry has been able
to get to that unbelievable statistic
that I just talked about is that it's
gone through all accidents it's gone
through terrible things that have
happened and have turned into the rules
that we are now all being regulated
towards what's happening now is that
we're showing up with new technology so
I'll give you an example like
regulations they currently say the pilot
shall do X and it says that you know 50
times Well we don't have a pilot and so
when we're showing up we have to kind of
rewrite what that is I understand why it
says the pilot shall do X it says that
because there were accidents in the past
that have now been regulated out of
existence but you're also looking at it
from the the negative point of view how
many lives could be saved if we got this
stuff into pick a country India or
Africa we could bring clean water and
medicine and supplies to people disaster
relief it doesn't cost $10,000 an hour
to fly a Blackhawk anymore into some
disaster relief situ situation costs
$500 an hour and we can send 50
immediately and they're always available
the uptime is super huge and so I
actually think you could save a lot of
lives too if you what about saving lives
here in the US we we lose 40,000 people
every year on the roads which is insane
uh and we fly almost as many miles as we
drive so like driving is more than
10,000 times more dangerous per
passenger mile than flying is so we can
actually by moving people into the air
for their daily Transportation make the
you know save thousands and tens of
thousands of lives but we need to get
the technology out there we need to
start learning I hope uh Peter teal had
it wrong and we are going to get flying
cars in the next couple of years and I
want to thank you all for being here
please join me in thaning our
than
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
This video features a discussion with leaders from three electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) companies: Archer, Joby, and Wisk. They discuss the current state of urban air mobility, the technological advancements in electric propulsion and autonomy that make these aircraft viable, and the challenges they face regarding regulation and public adoption. Despite the significant progress in testing and safety, the panelists highlight the difficulty of navigating the regulatory landscape in the United States compared to international markets, while emphasizing the potential for these aircraft to revolutionize transportation and save lives by replacing dangerous road travel with safer, more efficient air alternatives.
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