[Music]

well

time flies uh it's really six months of

the year gone

we're at the second half of 2021 so it's

time to do a

half year review and an outlook of the

second half

for the markets all right so let's begin

with the us markets and let's begin the

s

p 500 so from the beginning of the year

we started over there when the candle

opened and as of yesterday the

30th of uh june we closed

at 4297 so the s p 500 is up 14.41

for the first half of the year and this

has been supported by very strong

earnings growth in fact most of the

companies have

beaten earnings by a wide margin and so

that has

contributed to the very strong market in

the first half

now of course as you know prices don't

go up in a straight line they move in

wave patterns and so far

the wave patterns have been pretty

reliable as you can see right wave up

wave down we've up wave down we've up

wave down

very very reliable all right and you

guys know that as investors

when do we buy we buy on the wave down

right so the moment it waves down

it hits a support level right we add

shares there

hits the support we edge as that hits

the support we edge as then we just keep

doing that and that's how we get in at

relatively the lower

prices of the market but again sadly

most people out there

who are not training and investing you

find that the market could go up

in the first six months and they still

lose money that's right

so how do people lose money when the

market goes up very simple because they

keep buying high and selling low

right and most people what happens is

when they see the market going

up and they read all the good news they

say hey i want to make money

and they jump in there the moment they

jump in what happens

right market will drop they read all the

bad news and

they sell so sadly people who are not

trained would always

uh buy there and sell there and buy

there and sell there and buy there

and they keep losing money again and

again so you guys know from

how i've invested for so many years is

we do the opposite of everyone else

right we keep

buying uh when the market drops

and we buy when there's bad news and

that's how we get in at the best prices

so that's the s p 500 so

what's the outlook for the next six

months we'll take a look in a short

while but so far

first six months up 14.41

now how did the rest of the other two

indices do

so if you guys remember last year the

nasdaq

outperformed the s p and the dow because

the technology stocks the state home

stocks

did really well and the rest were left

behind

then the first five months of this year

the opposite happened we had a big

sector rotation where now

the cyclical stocks this the the

reopening stocks

came back and outperformed the

technology stocks so the first five

months

the dow jones outperformed the nasdaq

well in the last month

now the nasdaq has come back again right

so you find that

they take turns uh leading the market so

what you see right now as of

uh end of this month is the market has

now

converged back together again that's

right you got now convergence right so

again last year

we had divergence where the nasdaq went

ahead and the dow was left behind

and first five months the dow went ahead

nasdaq left behind so now

as that comes back it's playing catch up

right so now you see a very nice

convergence in the three indexes

and that's the way it's supposed to be

in the long run the three indexes tend

to

converge together with of course the

nasdaq always having a slight lead

because it consists of high growth

technology companies

so snp up 14.41 nasdaq

just slightly behind but now it's like

catching up at 12.54 percent

and the dow jones at 12.73

if we take a look at the breakdown of

the sectors you can see

show enough the last month technology

has now come roaring back

technology in the last month has become

the best performing sector

energy is still pretty strong as you can

see healthcare is coming back

real estate is coming back all right

and if you take a look at the charts

over here

again you can see that for the first six

months

which sectors have outperformed now

again

this purple one is the s p 500

okay so we are always measuring which

sectors

outperform the s p which sectors under

perform the s p

so again what you're seeing here is the

first six months of the year

first half of 2021 and you can see again

it has been the cyclical sectors

or we call them the reopening sectors

that benefit from the economic reopening

benefit from vaccine

that has been outperforming right so the

best performer this year has been

energy and second

financials and third industrial so

energy

financials and industrials have

outperformed

the overall market and the rest have

been

uh on power slightly behind the s p 500

now some people are saying hey then i

should buy energy right i should buy

financials i should buy industrials

because they are leading the way

well not so fast remember the reason

these three sectors have been leading

this year

is because they have been crap last year

all right so all they are doing is they

are playing

catch up they're not catching up because

they've been

lagging behind all right but the

question is in the long run do these

three sectors actually

outperform the s p 500 no

in the long run these three sectors

underperform the snp why because they

are very cyclical

and they have lower growth than some of

the other sectors so

let's take a look at the long term if

you take a look at

the last 10 years can you guess guess

which sectors

consistently outperform the s p let's

take a look alright so again there we

have

the last 10 years okay

snp is right in the middle so which

sectors beat it technology

in the long run technology always

outperforms the

overall market why because they have got

the highest

growth rates because of technology okay

number two would be consumer

discretionary stocks

also known as consumer cyclical stocks

so these are things like nike

and estee lauder and walt disney

right these are the discretionary

companies right then

in third place you have got healthcare

which also is a very strong sector

in the long run so we notice that in my

portfolio

ideally the majority of the companies i

want to keep for the long run

should be technology consumer

discretionary

and health care these are the ones that

i don't really want to sell i want to

hold it for the long run because they're

in

secular growth industries right

and you can see in the long run cyclical

stocks

like industrials financials and

materials and

energy these are very cyclical stocks

they underperform the s p in the long

run

but do we still want to buy them yes

only when they are dirt cheap only when

they're at the bottom of the cycle do i

want to buy them

and then once they you know catch up to

the top of the cycle

i could start taking profits you see the

difference right here

so you guys know that last year when

financials like the bank's insurance

companies were in the

crapper when you were doing really badly

we bought all the banks last year right

and so i really started to sell all my

u.s banks this year

so also but i'm still holding to my

asian banks because the asian banks are

still

undervalued or not too overvalued right

industrials same thing you buy them when

you're dirt cheap

like 3m honeywell okay so these are

industrial companies like

like deer okay these are companies that

you want to buy when they are really

undervalued once they're overvalued

then you want to get rid of them you

don't hold them too long because they

underperform the s

p uh in the long run all right so

i bought 3m last year i bought boeing

last year i bought

uh what's the other cyclical one i

bought

that i can't remember anyway but i've

not sold them yet because i think

they've got a bit more room to run all

right

as you guys know i never touch utilities

because i think it's

too boring growth is too low and i i

just don't like it right and for me i

never touch

material companies materials are

commodities right right now you can see

that this year commodities

have been booming commodities but i

don't touch commodities because i find

it too hard to anticipate

the trends because commodities are very

unpredictable and

companies within the commodity space

tend to have very low profit margins

because they're in a very competitive

industry where there's no one company

that dominates

that whole industry and as you guys know

i also tend to avoid energy

because yeah in the short term you can

see now energy is doing well

material is doing well but in the long

term they don't really do well so i tend

to avoid these because i'm

i'm looking at it from the long term

perspective so again to summarize in the

long term

technology consumer discretionary

and healthcare outperform the s p so in

the majority of your portfolio you won

the majority of your stocks to be in

these industries right

oh i forgot to talk about staples right

consumer staples

are also known as consumer defensive

companies so what are stable companies

staples are

essential goods like clorox like png

like unilever these are staples a

kimberley club

so normally staples have very low growth

but they tend to be very defensive

in other words during a recession in a

bear market when the whole market goes

down defensives

or staples tend to go up so they're

really good as a way to buffer your

portfolio

and i buy them only when they're dirt

cheap so right now as you know i just

bought clorox because clorox is

undervalued

uh png slightly undervalued still

waiting for a lower price you can get a

lower price unilever

i bought it before i sold it for slight

profit so again staples are good as a

buffer

to your portfolio right they don't grow

your portfolio that much they are buffer

it's kind of like

a balanced meal right so protein grows

your

muscles but you can't just eat protein

because too much protein you get uric

acid is unhealthy you need to balance

protein

with vegetables and uh vitamins right so

staples are like your vegetables your

your

your carbo that balances the growth it

gives you a bit of

energy uh once in a while when you need

it

okay so being the half year let's take a

look at the p e ratio once again as you

can see

uh if you look at the overall s p 500 p

e ratio

it still looks bloody expensive man

right

in the long run the pe ratio the price

to earnings ratio

is about 17 times earnings and right now

the snp is selling at

37 times earnings oh my god so again

people say we are so expensive

right yes i've said this many times

before that

in general if you look at the whole

market it is

expensive okay it is expensive but

within that market there are companies

under the hood of the car that are still

reasonably priced

not many left but there still are and

there's still some companies that are

still slightly undervalued and as you

guys know

uh these are the ones we've been buying

but to do a lot of digging to find these

companies

right so that's why personally for me

i won't buy shares of the index ets

right now for me

right i won't buy shares of the s p the

dow jones the

nasdaq because i think overall is

expensive okay

i prefer to buy individual companies

that i know are fairly priced now having

said that those of you who are taking a

long-term approach to investing you're

doing dollar cost averaging over the

years

you're on a dollar cost average the

index etfs

sure you can go ahead right but

personally i prefer to buy individual

companies

so for example within consumer staples

like i said clorox was a good deal we

bought

clorox a couple of days ago right i

shared with you guys in the

chat group right the the uip alerts

png looks fairly valued pepsi

looks uh slightly undervalued as well

technology

microsoft although it's gone up so much

but microsoft actually is still

uh not that expensive from a intrinsic

value perspective

facebook has gone up like crazy as well

right but again facebook i wouldn't say

is that expensive as well it is fairly

priced but again don't jump in right now

to add more

wait for a wave down right remember buy

when there's panic when there's fear

don't chase the girl let the girl run to

you right

uh salesforce is still fairly priced

okay when it comes to healthcare united

health still fairly price a bdx as well

although that's not on the watch list

yet but i'm still watching

to put it on the watch list in a short

while for industrials boeing

3m they are still fairly priced

consumer discretionary lows we bought uh

bought some shares of lows as you guys

remember two weeks ago i sent an alert

on uip as well

booking.com amazon these are

discretionary companies

uh that are still uh undervalued

and fairly priced right so there are

still some

uh gems around but not many um

so there are still some things to buy

along the way

so what were some of the key events that

happened this month

well one of the significant events was

the federal

reserve the fed during their meeting

announced something quite

uh interesting right so initially

the fed said don't worry we're gonna

keep interest rates at zero

we're only going to raise interest rates

in 2024

and don't worry inflation is you know

short-term it won't go above 2.4 percent

anyway 2.4 percent of target right

so what happened was they came out in um

mid june i can't remember the date right

mid-june and they said

okay we can see inflation is getting a

bit high

right so our target for inflation is now

3.4 percent

for 2021 but again it won't stay there

for long it's going to come back down so

they've acknowledged that inflation

is going up right and what they did say

is that

we are now going to raise interest rates

twice

in 2023 instead so they've moved forward

they are interest rate

hikes so the moment they announced it

guess what the marketplace oh my god

they're raising interest rates

because remember when you raise interest

rates it's like

it's like hitting the brakes on the car

the car is the economy

so right now the car is going really

fast right inflation is going really

fast

so right now the fed is it we have to

step on the brakes

soon so people here step on the brakes

what if you brake too hard and the car

stall so they're betting oh my god right

so the market likes to panic

and so the moment it was announced the

market dropped

i think about 1.5 and again what does

what do most retail investors do they

sell oh my god right dumbasses

so what do we do we buy that's right so

the moment we saw the bad news

we saw the thing crash we bought and

then ha

lelou yeah it goes up again right so the

way to make money is to

be greedy when others are fearful to

take advantage of their

panic to buy great companies at huge

discounts

because remember this can remember this

right that

the market tends to drop

when they anticipate interest rates

rising

but eventually the market will go higher

when interest rates rise isn't that

interesting so i'll review that again

when people think that the fed is going

to raise rates

they panic and sell but in actual fact

the market goes

higher with interest rates

it doesn't make any sense yes it does

okay so remember i showed you this chart

before over here

that if you study history stock prices

and interest rates actually

trend in the same direction over the

long run

why because when the when the fed raises

interest rates they are stepping on the

brakes right of the car

and why are they stepping on the brakes

because the car's going really fast

because the car is

is really uh you know going you know

doing really well

so usually the fed raises interest rates

where the economy

is uh booming and when economy is

booming guess what

companies generate more sales and

profits enhance the value of their

shares rights

so never be afraid of rate rising

interest rates in the long run short

term you'll drop

and that's an opportunity we buy because

we know that in the long run

rising rates mean a strengthening

economy

okay now of course sometimes the fat

gets it wrong and they press on the

brakes

too hard your car stalls right

the economy goes into recession but but

it could happen

but um it's unlikely to happen because

the fat

you know they kind of not tap the break

tap the break don't step too hard

on the brakes the fed also signal their

intention that they will start to reduce

their asset purchases

currently the federal reserve they are

buying about 120 billion dollars worth

of treasuries and agency mortgage-backed

securities every month

all right so they're basically pumping

in money to the market every month

they say we're going to reduce that

right now the moment they

announce this news that hey we're going

to raise interest rates

soon what happened the u.s dollar

rallied

right remember the moment a country

signals their intention to raise

interest rates their currency always

strengthens so the us dollar has rallied

and

gold always goes opposite of the dollar

right dollar goes up gold goes down

it's always the opposite right so gold

has had a major correction because of

this announcement

okay so let's take a look at what's

happening to the china market so while

the u.s markets have outperformed in the

first half

at 14 return china has

underperformed in the first half because

of number one

the governor the government's uh

intervention into the technology

companies so the government went after

alibaba

went after tencent maituan uh because of

anti-trust

uh regulations right so because of this

climate of

intervention uncertainty people panic

and so so

the chinese tech companies have dropped

significantly

uh in the first half dragging down the

entire index and again as an investor to

me that's great news because i did a lot

of

buying of chinese tech companies and i'm

now holding

a pretty big portfolio of alibaba

tencent and jd

because i expect it to outperform in the

second half

or if not next year to come roaring back

the second reason why china's market has

not done so well is because

the chinese government they cut their

stimulus

much earlier than the americans so the

americans are still stimulating the

economy keeping interest rates slow

pumping in money

but china once they created the stimulus

in

last year to help in the pandemic once

they saw their economy recovering

they cut the stimulus very very fast so

basically they

are doing monetary tightening a lot

faster to curb speculation and that has

caused the market to come down

which i think is a good move in the long

run because you don't want it to run too

fast you want it to gradually

go up in a sustainable pace so if you

look at the shanghai

composite index you can see we started

over here in january

and as of now we are just somewhere over

there so

the shanghai composite map index is only

up 3.4

for the first half of the year which is

way below

uh the us in comparison

now let's take a look at the price to

earnings

ratio of the shanghai market to take a

look at

to get a rough feel about whether the

market is expensive or cheap

so you saw that in the us the p e ratio

is like 37

is really way above the historical

average

but china is the opposite you can see

that

historically the p e ratio for shanghai

has been 37.37 and as of now

the p e ratio is 29.23

so based on the price earnings ratio

shanghai

is under value and by the way if you're

wondering this is based on normalized

earnings

not the last 12 months of earnings

next if you take a look at the hong kong

hang seng

index it has also been underperforming

but slightly higher than shanghai

it opened over there and closed here

on the last day of june so it's up 5.86

for the first half of the year and hong

kong also remains

very undervalued you can see

historically the average

price earnings ratio is 18 right now

it's at 17.76

so how has my portfolios perform versus

the s p 500 let me just uh

show you so i've got several accounts

this one is uh this account is about 2.3

million

account and it has got quite a bit

weightage to the china market so this

one did not perform as well

you can go over to the account

management not this one sorry account

management here and it will bring you to

again this account management page

under portfolio analyst

alright so year to date return

so year to date you can see it's a 15

return and that's only uh slightly

higher than the s p

500 which is 14 so to me it's not that

great

why because a big part of this portfolio

has got china

stocks a lot of china technology stocks

so that pulled down

uh the great performance of my u.s

stocks all right but i'm not too worried

because

i believe that in the second half china

will come back

in the second half and so with that i

believe that at the end of this year

this portfolio should way outperform

the s p but let's see how it goes again

this particular account is this one

which has again a lot of china exposure

my other account has

less china exposure mainly us only and

that has performed

uh slightly better let me just show you

over here

yep so this is about one million dollar

account over here and

you can go to account

uh account management over here

all right there we go uh so you can see

it's up 73

uh for the last one year so year to date

let me just click here year to date

yeah year to date is up 21.62 so

uh this one has beat the s p by a better

margin because it's got less exposure to

china

all right so the point is some of you

your portfolios may beat the s

p some may underperform the smp for the

first half it doesn't matter

all right it depends on how you've

constructed your portfolio like i said

uh china has underperformed the first

half but you never know what's going to

happen in the second half

again in the second half if china begins

to outperform and catches up to the us

and the us pulls back

then you never know my my first

portfolio could then outperform my

second portfolio so it ain't over till

the fat lady sings

happy to also see the many of our fellow

traders and investors in the community

also beating the market

so far for the first first half of the

year so we've got people who have been

sharing

like william uh who said this is my

second year

after graduating from the wealth academy

back in january 2019

uh and you know i took my snapshot of my

portfolio my account has tripled in the

last two years

right two years is up 198 the last one

you're up 166

and year to date up 23 so pretty

similar to my portfolio as well and then

we have got

uh jason who just posted today and he

said

today is june the 30th or rather

yesterday

and he's up 42 year to date

prior to attending the courses i was a

gambler

and you know how i performed back then

draining my accounts to the rate

every year right losing money every year

and then once he

used the right methodology now making uh

42

year-to-date and of course we've got

people like bargus

who has been following me now for many

many years

and bagus is amazing he's up 674 percent

for the last two and a half years and

66 percent here today and again what's

amazing about bargus is that

uh you know when he first took my life

class

back in june 2015 i was running

it physically there and he lives in

jakarta right so he said i must fly to

singapore every tuesday morning

attend your life class till midnight and

back to

changi airport waiting for the first

flight to jakarta so he had to spend

you know lots of money on traveling

accommodation and he spent with over 10

000

on the course at the time but you know

nowadays we are able to teach it for

fraction of the course

uh via the the internet right so

is is a great time to be alive and again

many of you would know that many of the

students

actually get you know much higher

returns than i do because i don't

profess to get the highest returns

i profess to be the most conservative

investor you've ever ever met

right so there's no right or wrong i'm

gonna take be a bit more aggressive you

can get much higher returns but you need

uh to be able to take a lot of

volatility in your portfolio

okay so what's my outlook for the

markets in the second half

as i always say no one can predict the

future because you can't predict

tomorrow's

news and how the markets will react to

the news all we can do is we can base it

on

probability now from a technical

perspective

markets are on an uptrend and as long as

they

continue to be on an uptrend the path of

least resistance

is up in other words uh as markets are

not on an uptrend the us

china and singapore it should continue

going higher

for the rest of the year now having said

that remember you won't go up in a

straight line

okay remember that it will go through

wave up wave down with up wave down and

right now we are on a wave

up in the u.s markets so i'm not

surprised that we're gonna get a wave

down right a correction

in the next couple of months but i

foresee that by the end of the year we

should end up

higher than where we are today based on

historical

patterns so that that will be based on

the

technical charts uh fundamentally

u.s stocks can move higher uh driven by

a combination of earnings growth

so companies are expected to again show

great earnings growth in the second half

and the stock market although

relatively expensive to its history is

still

attractive relative to bonds so the s

p earnings yield is still higher than

the yield on the treasury bonds the long

term trends rebounds and of course

currently we are still at almost zero

interest rates that should provide the

liquidity for

the u.s markets to continue moving

higher

now if you take a look a bit at history

you can see from this chart that

when the u.s market makes a positive

gain in the first half of the year

as you can see when the market gains

during the first half

there's a 70 chance it would gain in the

second half now again this is based on

historical statistics and this is also

the first year

of the new presidential term by joe

biden

now historically during the first year

of a presidential term

the markets tend to gain at a 65

probability as well all right so based

on that

uh and historically what we found is

that when the sfp gains

uh say 10 in the first half you tend to

gain

half of that in the second half so 10

the first half

five percent in the second half so since

we gained 14

in the first half then theoretically we

should gain seven percent in the second

half

again it's not a sure thing it's just

based on historical

statistics right now however

i think there's a greater potential for

the china market to outperform in the

second half because it has

underperformed in the first half so i

think

china has a chance to catch up in the

second half if not then

next year but we'll see

okay particularly particularly because

china uh is projected to grow its

earnings

at 21 its uh companies

uh versus eight percent of global

earnings growth

if you take a look at the pac ratio of

the

hong kong market again what is peg ratio

you divide the p

e ratio by the projected growth rate

so remember that the hang seng p e ratio

is about 17 times earnings and earnings

are expected to go at 21

so 17 divided by 21

that gives us a peg ratio of less than

one

which means that stocks are undervalued

all right at the same time if you take a

look at global

allocation global investors are

currently

under allocated to china equities

because of again all this uh negative

publicity about china and all those

things

right but remember

you can't run away from the fact that

china is a long-term global

growth engine and eventually the stock

market would reflect

the growth of its economy and its

earnings in fact the china tax

tech sector is expected to grow at 20 to

40 percent

growth rate in the next couple of years

so a lot of

uh catching up for the equity markets to

do

now there have been a lot of people

saying that the reopening play

is not fully played out so what does

that mean that means cyclical stocks

like energy

and financial stocks and industrial

stocks have

come a long way to recover this year but

it's not over yet they still have some

way to go

upwards all right yes i agreed that

but having said that right now would i

jump into the

financial stocks and industrial stocks

and commodity stocks personally i won't

because again remember in the long run

they underperform the markets they are

just happening to perform well in the

short term because

of their underperformance

last year so they're playing catch up

right

so i tend to only like to buy cyclical

stocks when they are dirt cheap

and they are no longer dirt cheap right

commodities are no longer cheap

financials are no longer cheap

industrials are no longer that cheap

okay

but again there are pockets of companies

that i think still offer

value that can continue to benefit from

the reopening of the economy

one of them would be leisure and travel

now you guys know i don't invest in

airlines because it's a very competitive

industry right

i also tend to avoid hotels because i

already have reads

so for me there are two main companies

i'm looking at to

benefit from the

travel reopening number one is boeing

and number two is booking.com and the

third one is actually the

shanghai international airport that

remind remains very undervalued and

that's listed on the shanghai exchange

all right when it comes to financials i

think that u.s financials

yes they can still go higher but i think

the upside is really limited because

uh they are not cheap anymore

right so i prefer to focus on the asian

financials hence i sold most of my us

banks but i'm still holding on to my

singapore bank stocks and the china

insurance stocks like pinghan insurance

energy and materials yes they could

still

have some way to go up but as you guys

know i tend to avoid

these two sectors because they tend to

be underperforming in the long run

and tend to be very competitive

uh a very competitive industry with very

low profit margins so i tend to avoid

that

right uh so this source is from

bloomberg ubs you can see

uh they expect a lot more runway for

these cyclicals but again i would say

be selective to the ones that are not

expensive yet

finally one of the risks that could

screw things up in the second half

uh well number one would of course if

inflation

stays really high and doesn't come down

like the fat expects it to come down so

if inflation stays

you know above three point four percent

or goes to four to five percent then

well that could be a bit concerning

right

so high inflation could lead to concerns

again about the fed raising interest

rates even

sooner than expected or cutting their

stimulus bond buying program

so if anything happens in that respect

expect shorter volatility expect the

markets to correct

even more in the second half

however which industries

will benefit from higher interest rates

financial stocks okay and that's why i

continue to keep quite a lot of

financial stocks

but in asia as a hedge and beneficiary

of

higher interest rates the other thing is

i've mentioned in my previous video

that if in inflation continues to remain

high

i will still do well and you can still

do well if you hold

companies that have pricing power that

are able to pass along the extra cost

to their customers and you can only do

that with companies with sustainable

competitive advantage as well as

selected reits

with and inflation-proof stocks

the second key risk would be uh as the

the ongoing u.s

china tensions if there's any escalation

intentions

that could cause again short-term

corrections

which from an investment perspective is

good all right why

because geopolitical crisis tends to

produce a very short-term effect

in other words markets tend to go down

very fast and rebound back even stronger

so that will give us an opportunity to

pick up our favorite companies at a huge

discount

so there you go right finally uh if kobe

19 resurgence

happens especially in the developed

world where now we think everything is

more or less under control

if the variants go off control then

everything flares up again we go into

lockdown again

that could be a key risk that is why in

my portfolio

majority of the companies i have are

still the pandemic-proof stocks that

will benefit

from the stay-at-home culture things

like

microsoft salesforce adobe

amazon these are companies where even if

the pandemic lasts for the next 20 years

they will still still do really well

hence if you look at my portfolio

majority are still within these stay

home pandemic proof tech stocks while

the minority

would be in the cyclicals and in between

would be the defensive companies

all right so there you go that's the

review for

first half 2021 and a quick outlook for

the rest of the year hope it's been

useful and as always may the markets be

with you

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