Prepare for the Great Bubble Burst Part 2 of 2
490 segments
[Music]
Now let's look at the other side of the
coin. So like I said in this market
right now there are certain parts of the
market that that are very expensive in a
bubble like these. But there are also
certain parts of the market that are
very very cheap because they've been
they've been ignored by Mr. Market.
they've been neglected. It's kind of
like everyone is chasing the AI, chasing
the uranium, chasing the quantum
computing that they have ignored these
sectors. So when money flows into the
hot sectors, they flow out of the
non-hot sectors and these non-hot
sectors the the market price has been
dropping dropping dropping even for
companies that are making good money and
now they are very undervalued and as a
result for us as investors they present
great opportunities. Pick them up at a
huge discount. It's kind of like this
guy has got a beautiful wife, but he's
neglect neglected his wife because he's
chasing the new hot chick, right? So, as
he's chasing the new hot chick, he's not
watching his wife. His wife is
neglected. So, we go in and we grab his
wife from him. Yes. So, what are these
sectors? What are these industries that
have been neglected by Mr. Market? We
can go in and we can grab them. Number
one, healthcare. I've said this many,
many times that healthcare is
undervalued and they are still
undervalued. Although they've rebounded
quite a bit, but they've got a long way
to go. Number two, software stocks. So,
as you guys know, there's a lot of fear
that oh, AI will make software companies
obsolete. So, many of the software
stocks that are very high quality,
they've been dropping like flies and
they're really undervalued. And let's
take a look at a few examples in a
while. And number three would be certain
consumer discretionary stocks, certain
industrial stocks, certain consumer
defensive stocks, and certain financial
stocks have all been neglected. Let's
take a look at some examples. So,
healthcare uh what are some examples?
Now, again, these some of these stocks
are not new. I've mentioned them before
and um uh they have been up quite a bit
since I mentioned them, but I think
they're still undervalued and they're
still presenting a lot of uh great value
right now. So first would be of course
United Health which I've been banging
the table is so plenty cheap right I've
been buying and of course now it's way
above my average price and as we know uh
even Warren Buffett couldn't resist it
he say it's too cheap I can't take it
anymore I got to buy it he bought it
right so again the intrinsic value of
United Health is $44 and at the current
price of $358
uh even though it has let's check it out
it it has come out quite a bit right you
can see there was a plunge over there.
It made a double bottom and now it's
kind of like on its way to, you know,
rebound back, right? But it's still
undervalued. Intrinsic value for four,
right? Now, 358. By the way, this
intrinsic value is very conservative.
It's based on very low growth
projections of only 2% in the next 3 to
5 years and less than 1% in the long
term. By the way, these growth
projections are provided by analysts
compiled by Fax, which I think are too
conservative. So if United Health goes
back to its previous growth of 12 to
15%,
okay, then the valuation could be
increased to $600, you know. Uh so what
you're seeing here is the very very
conservative valuation. It could be
worth a lot more than that. Uh next
would be Eleven's Health. So Eleven's
health, same thing. You can see that it
has rebounded
uh from the bottom as well. That's the
bottom. You can see it's beginning to
rebound and the intrinsic value is $512
right now $3.49. So this remains very
undervalued as well. So there are a lot
of cheap uh high quality companies in
the market. Next we have got um software
companies. So again there's this fear
that AI will destroy all the software
companies and as always the market tends
to overreact. Will all AI companies be
destroyed? Will they all be disrupted?
Some of them yes. Some of them, no. Some
of them, honestly, I'm not sure. So, out
of all of them, I would say the ones
that I am the I've have got the most
confident in that they will in fact
benefit from AI and not be disrupted
from it would be examples be Salesforce.
And I think Salesforce doesn't get
enough credit. They have been uh
delivering very good profits, cash flow,
but the stock price is still very cheap
again because of this fear that oh,
they'll get killed by AI, which I I I
don't think so. Again, I could be wrong.
You know, I'm not, you know, I'm not
infalluable, right? But in terms of
probability, I think they've got a good
chance of uh riding and doing well in
the AI wave. So, Salesforce, you can see
that it has been, you know, uh wave up,
wave down, wave up, wave up, sorry, wave
up, wave down. It's kind of been
consolidating here, and I think
eventually it's going to rebound back
up. Uh so, intrinsic value is 320. You
can see the current share price 245. So
again, it looks quite undervalued and
the fundamentals are pretty strong,
right? Very strong predictability,
relatively good profitability, good
growth, strong mode, high financial
strength. Um,
and if you take a look at the financials
over here,
and you know, there's really no
complaint about the financials, right?
You can see revenue has been growing.
You've got net profit uh in green that's
been growing. You've got free cash flow
that has been growing very well. So
again, it's supported by earnings. So
here's a good example. Another great
software company in my opinion is a
Canadian software company listed in
Toronto under CSU but they've got a
USOTC thicker which is CNSWF
which is constellation software.
So this is another company which is very
very high quality. You can look at their
financials. Financials have been very
very strong as well. Uh look at their
free cash flow growth. Look at their
revenue growth and their intrinsic value
is 3341.
Again remember that how is intrinsic
value calculated? Intrinsic value is
calculated in many ways but in this case
it is the using a discounted free cash
flow valuation model. So in other words
you you add up all the projected free
cash flow how much cash the business
will generate in the next 20 years and
you discount it to present value. So
that tells you what the company's worth
and right now the share price at 2788.
Um now I've been actually watching this
stock for quite a while but I've never
bought it because it was too expensive.
But recently it got cheap and I started
buying it for the first time. And why
did it get cheap? Why did the share
price drop below the intrinsic value? Uh
because of again this fear oh AI is
going to destroy it. And the founder
recently stepped down because of medical
reasons. And to me, I think a lot of
these fears are are irrational. Okay.
Now, I know some of you have been asking
me about Adobe a lot in the comments,
and I have mentioned it many times. Some
of you have not heard what I said, so
I'm going to say it again. I've already
sold Adobe right now. Adobe to me
uh is
one that I'm really not sure. Okay. Will
it be disrupted by AI? I'm really not
sure. And that's why I decided to sell
it. My actually my daughter is a lot
smarter than me, it appears, right? My
daughter, she bought Adobe as her first
stock about uh it's about three three
years ago, right? And she sold it at
like 600 bucks. And I I asked I said,
you know, why are you selling it? Right?
And eventually it collapsed. So she was
actually smarter. She got out a lot
earlier. I got out at about close to 450
thereabouts. 400 450 I got out, right?
And she said to me because she's a
designer, she's in the creative industry
and she says Adobe now Adobe now sucks
right they are so expensive they keep
raising their prices and subscription
model and I can use something a lot
cheaper which is what uh Canva and stuff
like that so she sold it because she
felt that she was not happy as a
customer which was a pretty good idea
right so I'm out of Adobe I don't plan
to buy back now again could I be wrong
could Adobe succeed and do well it could
right I I can't predict the future but
again when I look at all the software
stocks whether Adobe and Salesforce and
Tyler Technologies and Service Now and
Constellation Software I can't buy all
of them obviously right. So if I can't
buy all of them I rather buy the ones
that I think have the strongest chance
of doing well in the AI arena. So Adobe
I'm not sure and that's why I've not you
know bought it back since I sold it at a
pretty good profit actually. Right. So
that those are software companies. What
else? Okay. So in the other sectors
uh you have got again great companies
have been neglected and nothing wrong
with the companies. They are making
money. Their revenue growing, profits
are growing but again the share price
dropped. Why? Because it's like the
husband nothing wrong with the wife but
the husband is just chasing a younger
chick and ignoring her and neglecting
her. That's why her market price fell.
That's why we want to go in there like I
said steal the wife. All right. So what
are examples of um some industrial
stocks? So one of them is actually a
copart.
Um so copart has dropped like crazy as
you can see you know and again there's
nothing wrong with the business.
Business is doing really really really
well. Okay, if you look at the
financials, check it out.
You know, revenue is growing as you can
see. You know, profits are growing, free
cash flow, free cash flow is growing.
They've got so much cash. They've got
hardly any debt. Right? Now, if you
can't see the lines, let me change to a
bar chart. It's easy to see, right? You
know, they they've got so much cash.
They got hardly any debt. Fundamentals
are solid. They've got a return on
equity of 18% ROIC 18% very strong
fundamentals intrinsic value $54 right
now $44 you know undervalued right now
again these are not recommendations for
you to buy I'm not making any
recommendations I'm just sharing it with
you uh as a case study for educational
purposes you know but for me I've been
buying all right I've been buying and of
course does it mean that you'll go up
tomorrow no it could still go lower
right because it's being neglected
It could still go lower in the short
term, but I know that these are
companies where if I just buy, close my
eyes, 3 5 years from now, likely they're
going to be double or you know more,
right? So that's these are investments.
These are not short-term trades. Another
example of um industrial stock that has
been kind of like uh neglected is waste
management.
Not a terribly exciting stock, you know,
waste management, clearing waste to
recycle and all that. But again, look at
the fundamentals.
Okay, they've got a very high ROE of
32%.
And uh if you look at the financials,
you can see very strong business. Okay,
revenue growing consistently.
And again, uh free cash flow, free cash
flow has been a bit flat because they've
been making a lot of acquisitions,
right? But you look at the net profit
and green profit has been growing up
very consistently as well. And this is a
div dividend aristocrat. But this is
slightly undervalued uh but it's not
terribly undervalued but it's still not
expensive. Right. So intrinsic value 226
um and right now selling at 217. Okay.
So again there are many of these stocks.
I I give you one last example.
financial companies and certain
financial companies like financial
analytics companies like Faxet, S&P
Global, you know, recently they dropped
again for no good reason simply because
they are ignored. They are neglected by
Mr. Market and S&P Global again is a
very high
quality company that's got a very strong
economic mode. Uh fantastic financials.
Check it out. Get revenue growing
consistently.
You can see free cash flow sorry net
income increasing free cash flow going
up
and uh return on equity you can see it's
uh 11.76%.
Which is not bad right I mean not super
high but it's not bad as well right
intrinsic value 528 and now it's at 478.
You can see recently it dropped
over here and you can see the wave
patterns right you know wave up wave
down wave up wave down wave up wave down
wave up wave down wave up wave down
eventually after it bottoms you know the
wave will will just continue. So again
the market is not cheap but it is not in
a bubble and it is on a very very clear
uptrend. So the trend is your friend as
long as the uptrend remains in force.
Probabilities that prices will just keep
going higher all the way to the end of
the year. But again, having said that,
remember it doesn't go up in a straight
line. You will have pullbacks and
potential corrections along the way.
Remember that, right? Wave up, wave
down, wave up, wave down, wave up, wave
down, wave up, wave down, wave up, wave
down. Now we're going through a wave up.
There will be wave downs but we should
see the market again continue to go
higher at least for the next uh 2 to 3
years at least. Now eventually will
there be a bubble bursting? Yes. When
will it happen? I don't know. Now here's
the trick. In order to continue to
succeed in investing and to build our
wealth must we be able to time the top
of the bubble. I wish we could but it
but it's impossible. So the trick is not
to time the top of the bubble. The trick
is not to get out before the bubble
burst. No, no, no, no, no. That's not
the trick. The trick is to ensure that
for our investment portfolio, our
investment portfolio, we only invest in
companies which are not in a bubble.
That means companies that are actually
making money generating free cash flow.
Companies where the profits support the
stock price. And for those stocks that
we are in that are in a bubble, we have
to put a very tight stop-loss. So the
moment the bubble burst, the price goes
down, hits the stop loss, we get out and
we lock in the profits. You see the
difference? Now let me share something
interesting with you.
Look at this chart. Now the blue line
over here
uh was is the NASDAQ. So the NASDAQ
consists mainly of tech stocks which in
that time in the year 2000 these were
mostly the dotcom stocks that were again
not making money. Okay. So that's the
blue line. Now this line over here the
second line this was the S&P 500 that
consists of all kinds of stocks tech
stocks and non- tech stocks. The green
line that you see is the stock price of
Burkshshire Heatherway which is the
company managed by Warren Buffett. Now
notice something interesting.
Notice that
when the.com bubble was forming, right,
the NASDAQ was going up
9798 to the year 2000, the S&P was also
going up. Can you see that? This was
going up. This was going up. But what
happened to Warren Buffett's company?
Burkshshire was going down.
Why? Because Warren Buffett had no tech
stops. He had zero tech stocks and so
when everyone want everyone was chasing
the tech stocks it was going up and
everyone was neglecting the non- tech
stocks. Hence Warren Buffett's companies
were oil all dropping in price although
the companies were making good money
like what I mentioned right the
neglected companies. Now eventually when
the bubble burst what happened the
companies that were not making money the
dotcom companies they dropped 77%.
Okay from 2000 to 2002 in 2 years it
dropped 77%.
And people basically lost their life
savings those who were fully in the tech
stocks. Okay, the S&P 500 which consists
about half of the tech stocks dropped
49%.
In the next two years,
but what happened to Warren Buffett's
company Burkshshire Heatherway? Notice
that from 2000 to 20ou 20ou 2002
when the S&P dropped 49% and the NASDAQ
dropped 77%. Burkshshire went up 80%.
Why?
Why?
Because Buffett was holding all the non-
tech stocks. So when the tech stocks
burst, all the money ran away from the
tech stocks and they bought into the
non- tech stocks and the non- tech
stocks went up. So what were the non-
tech stocks that Buffett was holding
that went up 80%. These were his major
positions. Gillette, you know, the the
shaving razor thing, Gillette, which no
longer exists because it's been
acquired. The Washington Post, which
also doesn't exist anymore. It's no
longer listed. Coca-Cola, that's still
around. Moody, still around, and
American Express, because these were all
the non- tech stocks. So, what is the
lesson? The lesson is to ensure that in
your portfolio
you should have only a small allocation
to the bubble stocks which again are the
speculative nonprofitable AI stocks,
quantum computing, uh cryptocurrency,
uh uranium, right? You must have a small
allocation and for those make sure you
got a stop loss. So when a bubble burst
you cut loss very fast but at the same
time the majority of your portfolio
must be companies that are making money
that have got high free cash flow which
are some AI stocks but you should also
have a lot of non AI stocks and that's
so if you look at my portfolio about 40%
of my companies that I own have got
nothing to do with AI directly these are
the healthcare companies the financial
companies the consumer staples the
consumer discretionary and the
industrial companies because I know that
when the bubble bursts and everything
goes to hell, my portfolio could still
go up 50 to 80% and so will yours. Okay,
hope this has been useful and as always,
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Coup and may the markets be with
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video provides an investment strategy focused on identifying undervalued, neglected sectors of the market while avoiding speculative bubbles. It highlights how investors often overlook stable, profitable companies in fields like healthcare, software, industrial goods, and finance in favor of high-growth sectors like AI. The speaker emphasizes the importance of building a balanced portfolio by investing in companies with strong fundamentals and solid free cash flow to protect against market corrections, drawing lessons from Warren Buffett's approach during the dot-com bubble.
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