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Prepare for the Great Bubble Burst Part 2 of 2

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Prepare for the Great Bubble Burst Part 2 of 2

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490 segments

0:03

[Music]

0:12

Now let's look at the other side of the

0:14

coin. So like I said in this market

0:16

right now there are certain parts of the

0:17

market that that are very expensive in a

0:19

bubble like these. But there are also

0:22

certain parts of the market that are

0:24

very very cheap because they've been

0:26

they've been ignored by Mr. Market.

0:28

they've been neglected. It's kind of

0:30

like everyone is chasing the AI, chasing

0:33

the uranium, chasing the quantum

0:36

computing that they have ignored these

0:38

sectors. So when money flows into the

0:41

hot sectors, they flow out of the

0:43

non-hot sectors and these non-hot

0:45

sectors the the market price has been

0:47

dropping dropping dropping even for

0:49

companies that are making good money and

0:51

now they are very undervalued and as a

0:52

result for us as investors they present

0:54

great opportunities. Pick them up at a

0:56

huge discount. It's kind of like this

0:58

guy has got a beautiful wife, but he's

1:01

neglect neglected his wife because he's

1:03

chasing the new hot chick, right? So, as

1:05

he's chasing the new hot chick, he's not

1:07

watching his wife. His wife is

1:08

neglected. So, we go in and we grab his

1:11

wife from him. Yes. So, what are these

1:13

sectors? What are these industries that

1:15

have been neglected by Mr. Market? We

1:17

can go in and we can grab them. Number

1:19

one, healthcare. I've said this many,

1:21

many times that healthcare is

1:23

undervalued and they are still

1:24

undervalued. Although they've rebounded

1:26

quite a bit, but they've got a long way

1:28

to go. Number two, software stocks. So,

1:31

as you guys know, there's a lot of fear

1:33

that oh, AI will make software companies

1:35

obsolete. So, many of the software

1:38

stocks that are very high quality,

1:39

they've been dropping like flies and

1:41

they're really undervalued. And let's

1:42

take a look at a few examples in a

1:44

while. And number three would be certain

1:48

consumer discretionary stocks, certain

1:50

industrial stocks, certain consumer

1:52

defensive stocks, and certain financial

1:54

stocks have all been neglected. Let's

1:57

take a look at some examples. So,

1:58

healthcare uh what are some examples?

2:01

Now, again, these some of these stocks

2:02

are not new. I've mentioned them before

2:04

and um uh they have been up quite a bit

2:07

since I mentioned them, but I think

2:08

they're still undervalued and they're

2:10

still presenting a lot of uh great value

2:12

right now. So first would be of course

2:13

United Health which I've been banging

2:16

the table is so plenty cheap right I've

2:18

been buying and of course now it's way

2:20

above my average price and as we know uh

2:22

even Warren Buffett couldn't resist it

2:24

he say it's too cheap I can't take it

2:26

anymore I got to buy it he bought it

2:28

right so again the intrinsic value of

2:30

United Health is $44 and at the current

2:33

price of $358

2:36

uh even though it has let's check it out

2:38

it it has come out quite a bit right you

2:41

can see there was a plunge over there.

2:43

It made a double bottom and now it's

2:45

kind of like on its way to, you know,

2:47

rebound back, right? But it's still

2:48

undervalued. Intrinsic value for four,

2:50

right? Now, 358. By the way, this

2:52

intrinsic value is very conservative.

2:55

It's based on very low growth

2:57

projections of only 2% in the next 3 to

3:01

5 years and less than 1% in the long

3:04

term. By the way, these growth

3:05

projections are provided by analysts

3:08

compiled by Fax, which I think are too

3:10

conservative. So if United Health goes

3:13

back to its previous growth of 12 to

3:16

15%,

3:18

okay, then the valuation could be

3:22

increased to $600, you know. Uh so what

3:26

you're seeing here is the very very

3:28

conservative valuation. It could be

3:29

worth a lot more than that. Uh next

3:31

would be Eleven's Health. So Eleven's

3:34

health, same thing. You can see that it

3:37

has rebounded

3:39

uh from the bottom as well. That's the

3:41

bottom. You can see it's beginning to

3:42

rebound and the intrinsic value is $512

3:46

right now $3.49. So this remains very

3:48

undervalued as well. So there are a lot

3:50

of cheap uh high quality companies in

3:53

the market. Next we have got um software

3:57

companies. So again there's this fear

3:59

that AI will destroy all the software

4:01

companies and as always the market tends

4:03

to overreact. Will all AI companies be

4:06

destroyed? Will they all be disrupted?

4:08

Some of them yes. Some of them, no. Some

4:11

of them, honestly, I'm not sure. So, out

4:14

of all of them, I would say the ones

4:16

that I am the I've have got the most

4:18

confident in that they will in fact

4:21

benefit from AI and not be disrupted

4:24

from it would be examples be Salesforce.

4:26

And I think Salesforce doesn't get

4:28

enough credit. They have been uh

4:30

delivering very good profits, cash flow,

4:32

but the stock price is still very cheap

4:33

again because of this fear that oh,

4:35

they'll get killed by AI, which I I I

4:38

don't think so. Again, I could be wrong.

4:40

You know, I'm not, you know, I'm not

4:43

infalluable, right? But in terms of

4:45

probability, I think they've got a good

4:47

chance of uh riding and doing well in

4:50

the AI wave. So, Salesforce, you can see

4:54

that it has been, you know, uh wave up,

4:57

wave down, wave up, wave up, sorry, wave

4:59

up, wave down. It's kind of been

5:01

consolidating here, and I think

5:02

eventually it's going to rebound back

5:04

up. Uh so, intrinsic value is 320. You

5:08

can see the current share price 245. So

5:11

again, it looks quite undervalued and

5:14

the fundamentals are pretty strong,

5:16

right? Very strong predictability,

5:18

relatively good profitability, good

5:20

growth, strong mode, high financial

5:23

strength. Um,

5:27

and if you take a look at the financials

5:29

over here,

5:34

and you know, there's really no

5:35

complaint about the financials, right?

5:37

You can see revenue has been growing.

5:39

You've got net profit uh in green that's

5:42

been growing. You've got free cash flow

5:45

that has been growing very well. So

5:47

again, it's supported by earnings. So

5:50

here's a good example. Another great

5:53

software company in my opinion is a

5:54

Canadian software company listed in

5:57

Toronto under CSU but they've got a

6:01

USOTC thicker which is CNSWF

6:06

which is constellation software.

6:09

So this is another company which is very

6:11

very high quality. You can look at their

6:13

financials. Financials have been very

6:15

very strong as well. Uh look at their

6:17

free cash flow growth. Look at their

6:19

revenue growth and their intrinsic value

6:22

is 3341.

6:24

Again remember that how is intrinsic

6:27

value calculated? Intrinsic value is

6:30

calculated in many ways but in this case

6:32

it is the using a discounted free cash

6:35

flow valuation model. So in other words

6:37

you you add up all the projected free

6:40

cash flow how much cash the business

6:42

will generate in the next 20 years and

6:45

you discount it to present value. So

6:47

that tells you what the company's worth

6:49

and right now the share price at 2788.

6:52

Um now I've been actually watching this

6:54

stock for quite a while but I've never

6:57

bought it because it was too expensive.

6:59

But recently it got cheap and I started

7:01

buying it for the first time. And why

7:04

did it get cheap? Why did the share

7:06

price drop below the intrinsic value? Uh

7:09

because of again this fear oh AI is

7:11

going to destroy it. And the founder

7:14

recently stepped down because of medical

7:16

reasons. And to me, I think a lot of

7:17

these fears are are irrational. Okay.

7:20

Now, I know some of you have been asking

7:22

me about Adobe a lot in the comments,

7:24

and I have mentioned it many times. Some

7:26

of you have not heard what I said, so

7:28

I'm going to say it again. I've already

7:30

sold Adobe right now. Adobe to me

7:34

uh is

7:36

one that I'm really not sure. Okay. Will

7:38

it be disrupted by AI? I'm really not

7:41

sure. And that's why I decided to sell

7:42

it. My actually my daughter is a lot

7:44

smarter than me, it appears, right? My

7:47

daughter, she bought Adobe as her first

7:49

stock about uh it's about three three

7:52

years ago, right? And she sold it at

7:54

like 600 bucks. And I I asked I said,

7:57

you know, why are you selling it? Right?

7:59

And eventually it collapsed. So she was

8:01

actually smarter. She got out a lot

8:02

earlier. I got out at about close to 450

8:06

thereabouts. 400 450 I got out, right?

8:09

And she said to me because she's a

8:12

designer, she's in the creative industry

8:13

and she says Adobe now Adobe now sucks

8:17

right they are so expensive they keep

8:18

raising their prices and subscription

8:20

model and I can use something a lot

8:22

cheaper which is what uh Canva and stuff

8:24

like that so she sold it because she

8:27

felt that she was not happy as a

8:29

customer which was a pretty good idea

8:30

right so I'm out of Adobe I don't plan

8:33

to buy back now again could I be wrong

8:35

could Adobe succeed and do well it could

8:38

right I I can't predict the future but

8:40

again when I look at all the software

8:42

stocks whether Adobe and Salesforce and

8:44

Tyler Technologies and Service Now and

8:46

Constellation Software I can't buy all

8:49

of them obviously right. So if I can't

8:50

buy all of them I rather buy the ones

8:52

that I think have the strongest chance

8:56

of doing well in the AI arena. So Adobe

9:00

I'm not sure and that's why I've not you

9:02

know bought it back since I sold it at a

9:04

pretty good profit actually. Right. So

9:05

that those are software companies. What

9:08

else? Okay. So in the other sectors

9:11

uh you have got again great companies

9:12

have been neglected and nothing wrong

9:14

with the companies. They are making

9:16

money. Their revenue growing, profits

9:18

are growing but again the share price

9:19

dropped. Why? Because it's like the

9:22

husband nothing wrong with the wife but

9:24

the husband is just chasing a younger

9:25

chick and ignoring her and neglecting

9:28

her. That's why her market price fell.

9:29

That's why we want to go in there like I

9:31

said steal the wife. All right. So what

9:33

are examples of um some industrial

9:36

stocks? So one of them is actually a

9:39

copart.

9:43

Um so copart has dropped like crazy as

9:45

you can see you know and again there's

9:47

nothing wrong with the business.

9:48

Business is doing really really really

9:50

well. Okay, if you look at the

9:51

financials, check it out.

9:54

You know, revenue is growing as you can

9:57

see. You know, profits are growing, free

9:59

cash flow, free cash flow is growing.

10:02

They've got so much cash. They've got

10:04

hardly any debt. Right? Now, if you

10:07

can't see the lines, let me change to a

10:08

bar chart. It's easy to see, right? You

10:10

know, they they've got so much cash.

10:12

They got hardly any debt. Fundamentals

10:14

are solid. They've got a return on

10:16

equity of 18% ROIC 18% very strong

10:20

fundamentals intrinsic value $54 right

10:24

now $44 you know undervalued right now

10:27

again these are not recommendations for

10:29

you to buy I'm not making any

10:31

recommendations I'm just sharing it with

10:32

you uh as a case study for educational

10:35

purposes you know but for me I've been

10:37

buying all right I've been buying and of

10:39

course does it mean that you'll go up

10:40

tomorrow no it could still go lower

10:43

right because it's being neglected

10:45

It could still go lower in the short

10:46

term, but I know that these are

10:48

companies where if I just buy, close my

10:50

eyes, 3 5 years from now, likely they're

10:53

going to be double or you know more,

10:56

right? So that's these are investments.

10:59

These are not short-term trades. Another

11:01

example of um industrial stock that has

11:04

been kind of like uh neglected is waste

11:08

management.

11:10

Not a terribly exciting stock, you know,

11:12

waste management, clearing waste to

11:15

recycle and all that. But again, look at

11:17

the fundamentals.

11:19

Okay, they've got a very high ROE of

11:22

32%.

11:23

And uh if you look at the financials,

11:25

you can see very strong business. Okay,

11:27

revenue growing consistently.

11:30

And again, uh free cash flow, free cash

11:33

flow has been a bit flat because they've

11:35

been making a lot of acquisitions,

11:38

right? But you look at the net profit

11:41

and green profit has been growing up

11:43

very consistently as well. And this is a

11:44

div dividend aristocrat. But this is

11:47

slightly undervalued uh but it's not

11:49

terribly undervalued but it's still not

11:52

expensive. Right. So intrinsic value 226

11:55

um and right now selling at 217. Okay.

11:58

So again there are many of these stocks.

11:59

I I give you one last example.

12:03

financial companies and certain

12:05

financial companies like financial

12:07

analytics companies like Faxet, S&P

12:10

Global, you know, recently they dropped

12:12

again for no good reason simply because

12:14

they are ignored. They are neglected by

12:17

Mr. Market and S&P Global again is a

12:19

very high

12:21

quality company that's got a very strong

12:24

economic mode. Uh fantastic financials.

12:28

Check it out. Get revenue growing

12:30

consistently.

12:32

You can see free cash flow sorry net

12:35

income increasing free cash flow going

12:37

up

12:39

and uh return on equity you can see it's

12:42

uh 11.76%.

12:44

Which is not bad right I mean not super

12:47

high but it's not bad as well right

12:48

intrinsic value 528 and now it's at 478.

12:52

You can see recently it dropped

12:56

over here and you can see the wave

12:59

patterns right you know wave up wave

13:01

down wave up wave down wave up wave down

13:03

wave up wave down wave up wave down

13:05

eventually after it bottoms you know the

13:07

wave will will just continue. So again

13:09

the market is not cheap but it is not in

13:12

a bubble and it is on a very very clear

13:14

uptrend. So the trend is your friend as

13:16

long as the uptrend remains in force.

13:19

Probabilities that prices will just keep

13:21

going higher all the way to the end of

13:23

the year. But again, having said that,

13:24

remember it doesn't go up in a straight

13:26

line. You will have pullbacks and

13:30

potential corrections along the way.

13:31

Remember that, right? Wave up, wave

13:33

down, wave up, wave down, wave up, wave

13:34

down, wave up, wave down, wave up, wave

13:36

down. Now we're going through a wave up.

13:38

There will be wave downs but we should

13:41

see the market again continue to go

13:43

higher at least for the next uh 2 to 3

13:47

years at least. Now eventually will

13:49

there be a bubble bursting? Yes. When

13:52

will it happen? I don't know. Now here's

13:55

the trick. In order to continue to

13:57

succeed in investing and to build our

13:59

wealth must we be able to time the top

14:02

of the bubble. I wish we could but it

14:05

but it's impossible. So the trick is not

14:08

to time the top of the bubble. The trick

14:10

is not to get out before the bubble

14:12

burst. No, no, no, no, no. That's not

14:14

the trick. The trick is to ensure that

14:18

for our investment portfolio, our

14:20

investment portfolio, we only invest in

14:22

companies which are not in a bubble.

14:26

That means companies that are actually

14:28

making money generating free cash flow.

14:31

Companies where the profits support the

14:33

stock price. And for those stocks that

14:36

we are in that are in a bubble, we have

14:40

to put a very tight stop-loss. So the

14:43

moment the bubble burst, the price goes

14:45

down, hits the stop loss, we get out and

14:48

we lock in the profits. You see the

14:50

difference? Now let me share something

14:51

interesting with you.

14:54

Look at this chart. Now the blue line

14:57

over here

14:59

uh was is the NASDAQ. So the NASDAQ

15:01

consists mainly of tech stocks which in

15:03

that time in the year 2000 these were

15:06

mostly the dotcom stocks that were again

15:08

not making money. Okay. So that's the

15:10

blue line. Now this line over here the

15:13

second line this was the S&P 500 that

15:16

consists of all kinds of stocks tech

15:18

stocks and non- tech stocks. The green

15:20

line that you see is the stock price of

15:24

Burkshshire Heatherway which is the

15:26

company managed by Warren Buffett. Now

15:29

notice something interesting.

15:31

Notice that

15:34

when the.com bubble was forming, right,

15:37

the NASDAQ was going up

15:40

9798 to the year 2000, the S&P was also

15:44

going up. Can you see that? This was

15:45

going up. This was going up. But what

15:47

happened to Warren Buffett's company?

15:49

Burkshshire was going down.

15:52

Why? Because Warren Buffett had no tech

15:56

stops. He had zero tech stocks and so

16:00

when everyone want everyone was chasing

16:03

the tech stocks it was going up and

16:06

everyone was neglecting the non- tech

16:08

stocks. Hence Warren Buffett's companies

16:10

were oil all dropping in price although

16:13

the companies were making good money

16:15

like what I mentioned right the

16:17

neglected companies. Now eventually when

16:20

the bubble burst what happened the

16:22

companies that were not making money the

16:24

dotcom companies they dropped 77%.

16:29

Okay from 2000 to 2002 in 2 years it

16:33

dropped 77%.

16:35

And people basically lost their life

16:37

savings those who were fully in the tech

16:39

stocks. Okay, the S&P 500 which consists

16:43

about half of the tech stocks dropped

16:46

49%.

16:48

In the next two years,

16:50

but what happened to Warren Buffett's

16:51

company Burkshshire Heatherway? Notice

16:53

that from 2000 to 20ou 20ou 2002

16:58

when the S&P dropped 49% and the NASDAQ

17:00

dropped 77%. Burkshshire went up 80%.

17:07

Why?

17:08

Why?

17:10

Because Buffett was holding all the non-

17:14

tech stocks. So when the tech stocks

17:16

burst, all the money ran away from the

17:20

tech stocks and they bought into the

17:23

non- tech stocks and the non- tech

17:25

stocks went up. So what were the non-

17:28

tech stocks that Buffett was holding

17:30

that went up 80%. These were his major

17:33

positions. Gillette, you know, the the

17:36

shaving razor thing, Gillette, which no

17:38

longer exists because it's been

17:39

acquired. The Washington Post, which

17:41

also doesn't exist anymore. It's no

17:43

longer listed. Coca-Cola, that's still

17:45

around. Moody, still around, and

17:47

American Express, because these were all

17:49

the non- tech stocks. So, what is the

17:51

lesson? The lesson is to ensure that in

17:53

your portfolio

17:55

you should have only a small allocation

17:58

to the bubble stocks which again are the

18:01

speculative nonprofitable AI stocks,

18:03

quantum computing, uh cryptocurrency,

18:07

uh uranium, right? You must have a small

18:11

allocation and for those make sure you

18:13

got a stop loss. So when a bubble burst

18:17

you cut loss very fast but at the same

18:20

time the majority of your portfolio

18:23

must be companies that are making money

18:26

that have got high free cash flow which

18:28

are some AI stocks but you should also

18:31

have a lot of non AI stocks and that's

18:34

so if you look at my portfolio about 40%

18:36

of my companies that I own have got

18:38

nothing to do with AI directly these are

18:41

the healthcare companies the financial

18:43

companies the consumer staples the

18:45

consumer discretionary and the

18:48

industrial companies because I know that

18:49

when the bubble bursts and everything

18:50

goes to hell, my portfolio could still

18:53

go up 50 to 80% and so will yours. Okay,

18:57

hope this has been useful and as always,

18:59

keep watching. Subscribe if you have not

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19:33

Coup and may the markets be with

Interactive Summary

The video provides an investment strategy focused on identifying undervalued, neglected sectors of the market while avoiding speculative bubbles. It highlights how investors often overlook stable, profitable companies in fields like healthcare, software, industrial goods, and finance in favor of high-growth sectors like AI. The speaker emphasizes the importance of building a balanced portfolio by investing in companies with strong fundamentals and solid free cash flow to protect against market corrections, drawing lessons from Warren Buffett's approach during the dot-com bubble.

Suggested questions

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