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The Shocking Truth About DC Spending & Corruption - Scott Bessent

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The Shocking Truth About DC Spending & Corruption - Scott Bessent

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1727 segments

0:00

Okay, we are here in Washington DC in

0:02

front of the White House having spent

0:04

the afternoon with our friend David

0:06

Saxs, our friend Elon Musk and others.

0:10

We are here to learn about the debt, the

0:12

deficit, what's going on in DC. And we

0:14

have an incredible interview lined up

0:16

with Scott Bessant, Treasury Secretary

0:19

of the United States. It was amazing and

0:21

it's been an amazing afternoon and we're

0:23

really looking forward to it. It was

0:24

amazing. Well, this is the pre the intro

0:27

to the video. It will be amazing.

0:29

It's not the pre. Let's just What the

0:32

We're going to pretend it's the pre. It

0:33

was amazing. It It will be incredible.

0:35

It was incredible. But how cool is the

0:38

White House? And here's a bell. I'm

0:41

pretty sure I'm pretty sure the bell I

0:42

cannot even describe to you the day we

0:44

had running around. It's incredible.

0:46

Running around room to room in the White

0:48

House. One of the best days of my life.

0:49

It was one of the best days of my life.

0:50

It was incredible. Incredible. I think

0:52

this bell is probably pretty important.

0:54

Can you guys get a shot of this bell? I

0:56

don't know what it is, but it's really

0:57

important. Yeah. The White House, the

0:59

people to a one super kind, super open,

1:03

super curious. I mean, did you felt it?

1:06

I You felt accepted. Yeah, I felt But I

1:08

got free soda. They have a soda machine

1:10

where you can make any Coca-Cola flavor

1:12

you want in the White House. It was

1:13

pretty cool. I took some uh hummus. I

1:16

wrapped it on Creeper's face. I punched

1:18

him in. It was a cool afternoon. And uh

1:22

this is what is this? The east wing of

1:23

the White House. And we took a walk from

1:26

the west wing all the way over to the

1:28

east wing to the portico. And then we we

1:30

snuck in. Well, we didn't sneak in. We

1:31

walked in. And then we're walking around

1:33

the east wing. We went to all of the

1:34

private rooms. I got great photos. We'll

1:36

we'll we'll slice him into this video.

1:38

And then some secret service dude comes

1:40

up and he's like, "What are you guys

1:41

What are you doing here? This is the

1:42

residence of the president. You have to

1:44

get the out." He's like, "You need to go

1:45

downstairs now." So, we got kicked the

1:47

[ __ ] out. But it was an incredible um

1:49

incredible tour. Super great. Yeah.

1:51

Anyway, we're excited for this interview

1:52

with Scott Bess and hope you enjoy it.

1:55

All right, besties. I think that was

1:57

another epic discussion. People love the

2:00

interviews. I could hear him talk for

2:01

hours. Absolutely. We crush your

2:03

questions in a minute. We are giving

2:05

people ground truth data to underwrite

2:07

your own opinion. What do you guys

2:08

think? That was fun. Pal

2:12

Well, today's a really important day.

2:14

We're joined by the 79th Secretary of

2:17

the Treasury, Scott Bessant. And this is

2:19

an opportunity that we wanted to take as

2:21

part of a longer form way of explaining

2:24

to people not just how the economy works

2:26

but in a little bit more detail where

2:28

are we in this moment in time where are

2:30

we with deficits, tariffs, the budget,

2:33

economic, monetary, fiscal policy. How

2:36

do we make sure that we all understand

2:37

the plan to make America great again? So

2:40

Scott, thank you for joining us. Good.

2:42

Thanks for having me. I actually want to

2:44

start with let's go back in the way back

2:46

machine. So, South Carolina, your father

2:50

was a real estate developer. Tell us

2:54

where the passion for finance came from.

2:56

Uh, well, um, I don't know where finance

3:00

in particular came from. As you

3:02

mentioned, my dad was a real estate

3:04

developer and he he was kind of boom bus

3:07

kind of uh, guy. So, I think that's

3:11

where my passion for risk management

3:12

came from. But uh I I was I was very

3:16

fortunate. Went to Yale. Wasn't sure

3:18

what I wanted to do. N 1980 when I got

3:23

there. Probably you all can imagine

3:25

this, but uh there used to be these

3:27

things called punch cards and we just

3:28

gone the Yale computer system just gone

3:32

from punch cards to screens. I was going

3:33

to think of being a computer science

3:35

major, maybe a journalist because people

3:37

actually used to read newspapers. So

3:39

punch cards and newspapers from the way

3:41

back machine. Uh, and I

3:45

um I I got an

3:48

internship at just for an individual and

3:52

he taught me the investment business

3:53

really well. And I And who was that? His

3:57

name is Jim Rogers. He's famous. He was

3:59

George Soros's first partner. Uh he uh

4:03

had just completed an around the world

4:06

motorcycle trip and written a book

4:08

called Investment Biker, right? and fa

4:11

fascinating guy and um I did the

4:16

investment business and I thought this

4:18

is really what I like because it's

4:20

quantitative so I get to use my

4:22

quantitative skills but you're also

4:25

constructing a narrative um and it's

4:28

also like human emotions and you were

4:30

trading equities bonds everything

4:32

currencies uh well I started out with

4:34

equities and I I did that for several

4:37

years and then I actually ended up at

4:42

Soros Fund Management. I worked for a

4:44

fellow who's my mentor, Stan Draen

4:46

Miller, who's incredible, but I I think

4:49

he's on he's more than 40 years now.

4:52

Never a down year. And you know, when

4:54

you're sitting next to him, I think,

4:55

what am I doing all day and notorious

4:57

for going allin several times in his

4:59

career? All in all, all in. And uh only

5:03

when he's he's right. Yes. Well, I but

5:08

he he is the best at changing his mind.

5:10

That's right. Of anyone I've ever seen.

5:12

So, Duck has that famous adage, invest

5:14

then investigate. Well, he he has

5:16

several and and I'm trying to get him to

5:18

write a book because he has so many of

5:20

these great things. Uh maybe you will

5:23

press him. Um but invest investigate. It

5:27

takes courage to be a pig. Right. Right.

5:30

So uh and then I I was hooked on markets

5:34

because again it was everything. It was

5:37

quantitative, it was qualitative and

5:39

it's real time. You get real- time

5:41

feedback all the time. And you you're

5:46

could have a long-term view, but then

5:48

you're trying to gauge the short term

5:50

against that. And you know, I I loved

5:53

it. And uh for 35 years I've got into I

5:58

did what's called macro investing. So uh

6:02

eventually I was trading currencies,

6:04

bonds,

6:05

commodities, the equities, uh some

6:09

credit and I got to travel around the

6:11

world meeting leaders and trying to

6:15

figure out what the next move was in

6:17

policy. I think this is important

6:18

because I've spoken with folks who um

6:21

trade in macro and a big part of the the

6:24

role of being a macro investor, macro

6:26

trader, is really knowing where central

6:29

bank action is going to be, really

6:31

knowing how government bonds are going

6:33

to move and spending time with

6:35

economists, not just central, but around

6:37

the world and learning a little bit

6:39

about how capital is flowing all over

6:40

the world. Is that kind of the right way

6:43

to describe that role of being a macro

6:45

investor just for folks? Yeah, you know,

6:46

it's it's a lot of it's a lot of that.

6:49

There's another great macro investor

6:51

called Bruce Ker and he had this saying

6:55

that he said, you know, I succeeded

6:57

because I could imagine a different

7:00

future and believe it could happen. So

7:04

the key is to believe it could happen

7:06

and then manage the risk. So you know

7:08

could you imagine like what would happen

7:11

if the iron curtain came down? What

7:13

would happen? I mean you all do it as

7:17

venture capitalists but like you know

7:19

how could the world live in a different

7:22

state. Okay. Well let's hold that idea

7:24

and double click for us to 92. It's

7:29

probably one of the most famous moments

7:31

where the broader world at large metro

7:35

trading. And this is really where you

7:39

and Duck and Soros basically broke the

7:42

back of the Bank of England. And it's

7:45

really an interesting window into

7:47

assessing all of these things. So can

7:49

you give us the conditions on the ground

7:51

at that moment and what new reality you

7:54

saw for England? And then it would be

7:56

great from there we'll contrast and

7:57

compare to America today. Good. So uh it

8:01

it's a great historical example and it

8:04

also kind of brings in three dimensions.

8:08

So I I was the analyst,

8:10

Stan was the portfolio manager and then

8:13

in a way George was the risk manager.

8:15

Okay. So I I was running the the UK

8:18

office. I was on the ground in the UK

8:20

and I I had this light bulb go off and

8:24

you know I thought kind of the fulcrum

8:26

thought or like my differentiated view

8:30

was that the UK had just had a big

8:33

housing boom and UK mortgages at that

8:37

time they didn't have long-term

8:38

mortgages. They were all floating rates.

8:40

So if the Bank of England raised rates

8:42

on a Wednesday the your mortgage went up

8:45

on a Friday. Yeah. uh the UK had hooked

8:49

into something called the exchange rate

8:50

mechanism. They had to balance versus

8:53

the Deutsch mark. They had to stay

8:55

within a band. Um I noticed that if they

8:59

raise or I thought if they raised rates

9:02

to try to stay in the band and protect

9:04

the currency, it would be unsustainable

9:07

because British homeowners would get

9:09

bankrupted. Uh Stan's great uh feat of

9:14

analysis was figuring out that gosh the

9:18

these bands set up this incredible

9:20

asymmetric bet

9:23

because I can push them up against one

9:25

side of the band and their mandate is

9:28

just to push me back to the other side

9:31

so we just lose two and a half%.

9:34

And um you know Stan tells this great

9:37

story of

9:39

like telling George Soros, oh well you

9:43

know here's what I want to do and he

9:46

says he told him and George says well

9:48

how much do you want to do? And he said

9:50

probably 100% of the fund and he said

9:52

Soros gave him this really sour look and

9:55

he thought that he had said something

9:57

wrong why wouldn't you do three times

10:00

that deal? So uh but anyway it was um we

10:05

pushed them against the the ban. the

10:09

Bank of England, the British government

10:12

uh had to buy this unlimited amount of

10:14

pounds and they started raising interest

10:17

rates and this was September of

10:20

1992 and uh you know

10:23

eventually they just weren't able to

10:26

sustain the the pressure from the high

10:29

rates and came out and then the

10:31

asymmetric riskreward was we made about

10:34

20 something% in a day. Yeah. Right. And

10:38

back to what was really Stan's genius is

10:41

I don't know if either of you play back

10:42

gammon but in back gammon there's the

10:44

move after the move and so Stan we'd

10:48

made all that money and we were kind of

10:49

euphoric okay now what because there's

10:52

going to be the trade after the trade so

10:55

we made that much in a day but then it

10:58

was actually the trade after the trade

11:00

and this isn't well publicized I think

11:03

we made another 20%

11:06

during the rest of the year. Wow. So in

11:09

that moment, what you're really

11:11

observing is that the real economy is

11:14

somewhat dislocated, maybe meaningfully

11:16

dislocated from the financial economy in

11:18

your operating. And I think you've said

11:20

this now many times and you've basically

11:23

used the terminology the main street

11:24

wall street dichotomy.

11:27

How do you observe the moment in 2025,

11:30

the maybe what rhymes with the early 90s

11:34

or other periods where you've been

11:35

trading actively? Well, look, I I I

11:38

think it goes back

11:40

to something that's unsustainable is

11:43

unsustainable. And um one of the reasons

11:46

I'm sitting here now is uh about 18

11:52

months ago, I went to see President

11:55

Trump. I'd known the Trump family for 30

11:58

years. I'd never known the president

11:59

that well, but to tell him that I want

12:01

to get involved in the campaign because

12:03

I was so alarmed with what the Biden

12:06

administration was doing with the defic

12:10

debt and deficit,

12:12

endless stimulus, endless spending,

12:14

endless spending, but endless spending

12:16

when we were in like solid economic

12:21

territory or not in a war. First time,

12:24

first time ever. And I I thought it was

12:26

very cynical because I I actually

12:28

thought, well, we're going to spend

12:29

spend spend and then there'll be no

12:31

choice but to raise taxes. So you'd go

12:34

into this equilibrium that you could

12:36

just never get out of and you become

12:38

kind of a European style social social

12:40

democracy, you know, the malaise. And

12:43

you know, I I also think that we're very

12:45

cynical on immigration, right? Because

12:48

if you take kind of the stated number 12

12:52

million, the president's number 22

12:54

million. I don't know what the truth is.

12:57

Kind of lean toward the president. But

12:59

it was, oh, we're going to let all these

13:00

people cross the border. You can't ever

13:02

make them. Problem's too big to make

13:04

them go home. But I like to stay in my

13:07

finance lane. So the finance lane was

13:09

we're going to just go to the point of

13:12

no return and kind of inflict these

13:17

the progressive financial values on the

13:21

country. There'll be no way out. Very

13:23

meaningful wage suppression in that

13:25

period and you had an equity market that

13:28

was incredibly well bid just because the

13:29

money supply was just always there.

13:32

Well, it was always there and you had

13:35

these distributional aspects because

13:37

back to your question, Wall Street

13:39

versus Main Street that it was driving

13:43

me crazy when Vice President Harris

13:45

said, "I'm going to fight for the middle

13:46

class." And she'd eviscerated the middle

13:48

class or or these policies,

13:53

inadvertent, intentional, had

13:55

eviscerated the middle class and really

13:58

the bottom 50%. So you we're we're in

14:01

this uh because purchasing power goes

14:04

down, inflation went up. Well, per if

14:07

you didn't have assets, right? So, uh

14:10

that's really important. I think people

14:11

don't understand this that if you had

14:13

stocks, if you had assets, your assets

14:15

inflated. Y but if you didn't, the cost

14:18

of everything inflated, but you didn't

14:19

have the ability to purchase because

14:20

your wages don't go up. Yeah. And they

14:22

not not only

14:24

did inflation go up, but if you look uh

14:28

Jason Trinard has this thing I think he

14:30

calls it the everyman index and um so

14:34

CPI went up about 22 during the period

14:38

but the everyman index was up over 30

14:41

35%. Because the the bottom 25% the

14:46

bottom 50% of wage earners have have a

14:48

different basket than we do and it

14:50

inflated much faster% used car prices

14:53

around car insurance car insurance rent

14:56

groceries and you like not not only is

15:00

it unfair but it's just unstable and

15:03

great civil civil issues societal issues

15:06

and so yes but sorry as you guys got

15:09

into looking at this I and I remembering

15:12

and talking about this in the

15:15

summer of 23 I think it was or 23. Yeah.

15:20

And what was the point of view on what

15:23

should have been done at that point in

15:25

time and then how much farther did it

15:27

go? How much longer did it last? Well, I

15:28

I think what happened the the Democrats

15:31

will tell you that the big spending

15:34

bills were needed for rescue. Yeah. And

15:38

I would say in March of 21, the economy

15:43

didn't need rescue, was already in

15:45

recovery, right? So these were rescue

15:48

size packages. And even Larry Summers, I

15:52

remember there was a great debate

15:53

between Larry Summers and Paul Krugman.

15:56

And Summers I think said, "Look, this is

15:59

at least 900 billion, a trillion, too

16:01

much." And the Federal Reserve was ve

16:04

summer of 23 22 Federal Reserve was very

16:09

slow off the mark and you know we we

16:12

ended up and you know again imagine top

16:16

10% has assets stock market is flying

16:20

you're in the bottom 50% you have no

16:22

assets but you have debt. Yes. So you

16:25

credit cards are up u mortgages

16:28

impossible to buy a house. house prices

16:31

had gone through the roof due to COVID.

16:33

So, it really did like end the American

16:36

dream and but we we've been suffering

16:40

these distributional effects. Scott,

16:42

what what is the American dream today?

16:44

Do you think? Uh look, I I think the

16:46

American dream is what it what it's

16:47

always been. But after World War II, I

16:52

think 90% of American families uh the

16:56

the children made more than the parents.

16:58

Now, now I think it's 50/50, but you

17:01

know, it's to to own a home. It's

17:04

financial security. It's to uh some some

17:09

level of comfort. It's purpose in your

17:12

work. It's the to be able to support

17:16

your family. Uh to be able to have

17:19

choices to not have to work two two

17:22

jobs. I I made a remark at the Economic

17:24

Club of New York last week, two weeks

17:27

ago and Mike Pence decided he was going

17:30

to troll me and because I said the

17:33

American dream is not built on cheap

17:36

goods, right? And he said, "Well, yes,

17:38

it is." And you know, I I just say,

17:41

"Vice President Pence, this let them eat

17:45

flat screens economic policy that

17:48

doesn't is isn't what people want. They

17:51

we they don't want the bobbles from

17:53

China. It's like the old they want

17:55

progression. People want progression. I

17:57

I mean I remember reading um there's a

18:00

uh I think Jonathan height had some work

18:03

on this a long time ago where happiness

18:05

is measured by your change in net worth

18:07

or income per year. It doesn't matter

18:09

what your absolute levels are by all

18:10

these

18:11

socioeconomic kind of surveys that they

18:13

do. That feeling like you're having some

18:15

progression in life is what folks are

18:17

looking for. And I wonder whether

18:19

solving for that, we created a system,

18:22

and I I I'd love your point out your

18:24

your your read on this, that we said

18:26

everyone should own a home. That's the

18:27

American dream. And in order to do that,

18:29

people put most of their net worth into

18:31

a home. 60% I think of middle class net

18:34

worth is tied up in their in a single

18:35

asset. And then in order to get them to

18:37

feel like they're progressing, we've

18:39

created a system of loans and a system

18:41

of kind of economic and fiscal policy

18:43

that ultimately drives the value of the

18:45

home up every year. Now we're kind of in

18:47

an unsustainable housing bubble. Can

18:49

most people can't even afford to buy a

18:51

home. What did we get wrong there? And

18:53

how does that affect what the American

18:55

dream should look like going forward?

18:56

Well, I I think a lot of it is scarcity

18:58

because what what you're talking about

19:00

is like out in San

19:03

Francisco, super tight zoning laws. So

19:06

there there's scarcity for home. If if

19:09

you think like Ivy League education, all

19:12

of a sudden you gave all these people

19:15

access to Ivy League educations. You

19:19

brought in international students, but

19:22

the the number of degrees awarded at

19:24

Harvard, Dale, Princeton probably hasn't

19:26

changed very much since the 1950s. So

19:29

you you created just this demand for

19:33

scarce things which leads to this

19:35

anxiety. Um, but you you you

19:39

also created, I think, a sense of

19:42

hopelessness through cuz if you're I

19:44

can't access I will never get I will

19:47

never be able to pay down my student

19:48

loan. I will never be able to afford a

19:49

home. I can never see my income growing

19:52

to give me access there. Yeah. A and um

19:57

so is that is that a dereg solution? Is

19:59

that the Well, I think the first the

20:01

first part of it is it's a data problem

20:03

because in order for the government I

20:06

mean the one thing that struck me about

20:09

I think this Trump 2.0 administration is

20:12

I think you have a better beat on the

20:14

fact that this data is not as reliable

20:15

as other administrations would say they

20:17

were in order to do whatever it is they

20:19

wanted to do anyway. So it's sort of

20:21

like let me just find the data that

20:23

justifies what my action is. Um, and

20:26

part of why you can't, I think, tell

20:27

this story is, do you trust the GDP

20:29

numbers? Do you trust non-farm payrolls?

20:31

Do you think these are reliable enough

20:33

for you to act on behalf of the United

20:36

States? No. Look, that they're subject

20:38

to big revisions o over time. And I

20:42

thought one of the big mistakes the

20:43

Biden administration made, and thank

20:45

goodness they made it, was they refused

20:49

to they went with the numbers, not what

20:51

the American people were feeling. They

20:54

said, "No, it's a vibe session and you

20:57

really don't understand how good you

20:58

have it. This has happened. This has

21:00

happened." When when in

21:03

reality, I was on Meet the Press

21:06

yesterday and there's something that

21:09

said, "Well, the American people don't

21:10

believe Donald Trump's doing enough on

21:12

the economy." And I told the host, I

21:15

said, "You know, the one thing I'm not

21:17

going to answer is that they don't know

21:19

what they're talking about. I have to

21:21

have respect for how they feel and then

21:24

we need to go back and look at what is

21:27

causing this anxiety. So you that's what

21:30

that's what we're going to do. So let's

21:32

peel the onion back. What do you think

21:34

is causing this anxiety? Where are the

21:37

levers that maybe the federal government

21:40

can control in releasing some of the

21:43

pressure? And what are more market

21:45

functions that just need to clear up

21:46

some of these dis Well, look, I I think

21:50

there we we're we're trying to do three

21:53

things. And I I think you may have

21:56

talked about it last week week before

21:59

the the three legs on the stool. Three

22:01

legs in the stool. And and from from the

22:03

outside that you intuited that very

22:06

well. I I would do just a little

22:09

refinement on that. That's what I was

22:11

going to ask you. Yeah. just tell me

22:12

where I was right and wrong. But the you

22:14

were adjacent to everything. Okay. So,

22:16

uh on on one uh we are trying to bring

22:21

down this massive federal debt, cut the

22:24

spending and but in a controlled way

22:28

because you can't do it all at once. I I

22:31

don't like to repeat private

22:32

conversations with the president, but

22:34

I'll repeat this one because I think

22:35

it's very the it really illustrates

22:39

where his head was at. First time I went

22:41

to SE into seam saw him at Mara Largo

22:44

and walk in the door and said, "Scott,

22:47

how are we going to get these debt and

22:49

deficits down without causing a

22:52

recession?" Fantastic. And that's

22:55

exactly where we are now. How are we

22:56

going to get the debt and deficits down,

22:58

not cause a recession? And I said, "Sir,

23:01

um, when you win, you didn't get us

23:05

here. We're going to set a goal by 2028.

23:09

We want to get back to the long-term

23:11

average. We're going to deflate it

23:14

slowly. And long-term average being

23:16

about 3% deficit to GDP. About three

23:18

three and a half% deficit to GDP. And

23:21

you know, like I keep saying the US, we

23:24

don't have a revenue problem. We have a

23:27

spending problem because we are

23:28

averaging right about 18% revenue. And

23:32

I'm talking about federal government.

23:34

Federal government only. We're at about

23:36

18%.

23:37

and Biden administration blew it out

23:40

blew the spending out to 25. Normally

23:43

it's about 21 21 and a half. We have the

23:49

2% inflation nominal GDP it take real

23:54

GDP is 18. So we get nominal GDP 3.8 and

23:58

it all works out. Yeah. And it was very

24:00

I had uh one of the heads of one of the

24:03

Singapore sovereign wealth funds here

24:05

last week. Guess what Singapore spends

24:08

the in terms of spending to GDP deficit

24:12

3%. Uh they they have no deficit but

24:15

they they spend 18%. 18% 18%. And he

24:18

said you know he said we have a lot in

24:21

common with the Trump administration. We

24:23

like small government. We don't like

24:24

immigration, illegal immigration, and we

24:28

like personal safety, which I thought

24:30

was very interesting. Sorry. So, let me

24:32

just um understand. So, deflating

24:34

government spending is key, but the big

24:37

challenge has been that we have now

24:39

accumulated 30 some odd trillion dollars

24:41

nearly of

24:43

debt. And the interest on that debt has

24:46

started to grow. We now have to pay $1.2

24:50

trillion in interest payments per year.

24:52

So that starts to consume more of the

24:55

spending budget that we have at the

24:57

federal level, which means we can spend

25:00

less on the rest of the federal

25:01

government's programs, meaning you have

25:04

to cut a lot more than you otherwise

25:06

would have, which is what makes it so

25:07

difficult and so painful. Is it

25:09

realistic that you can get Congress to

25:12

act in the way that Congress needs to

25:14

act to get to the level that we need to

25:17

get to given the high interest payments

25:19

and the high debt level that we have?

25:20

Yeah. and w with this Republican

25:22

Congress. Uh, and look, I I I'm I'm not

25:26

sure what a deficit hawk is, but I I

25:28

think I I would qualify as one. And, uh,

25:32

a lot of the Republicans, I actually

25:34

have to coax him, you can't do this all

25:36

at once. I I was with the one of the

25:39

congressional budget committees two

25:42

weeks ago, and, you know, they really

25:44

want to cut this fast. And I said, you

25:46

do realize every 300 billion we cut is

25:50

about a percent of GDP. So you you could

25:53

so we we are trying to land the plane,

25:57

right? Uh well,

26:00

and the plan uh because that that's

26:04

really what I'd like to talk about

26:05

today. I think there are three plans

26:06

here, but plan one, we're going to

26:10

delever the government via the spending.

26:14

uh we are also going to shed excess

26:16

labor from the government. So on that

26:19

side and then on the other side we're

26:21

going we're going to deregulate the

26:24

financial system. The regulated

26:26

financial systems really been what I

26:28

call a regulatory corset for a long time

26:32

and as we deregulate that then the

26:35

private sector can relever. So

26:38

government deleveraging, private sector

26:40

releveraging and the employment or

26:44

the folks who lost their government jobs

26:47

will be picked up by the more

26:49

productive. But this sorry this is

26:50

really important and I think this is the

26:52

most critical thing. I'm really glad we

26:53

got the chance to talk today because I

26:56

hear so much about the conversation on

26:58

any one of these topics independent of

27:00

the others and there's a relationship

27:02

between them that I think is critical to

27:04

understand on how this administration is

27:07

aiming to drive an economic recovery

27:10

that is not inflationary is sustainable

27:12

and also will allow people to have the

27:14

American dream in a way that they can't

27:16

have access to today. Yeah. And the so

27:20

part of fixing the affordability crisis

27:23

is what can and we we come back and talk

27:25

about it if you want, but what where can

27:27

we get prices down? You know, like e

27:29

eggs are easy or but the the other side

27:32

of getting prices

27:34

down is getting real wages up. So on

27:39

getting real wages for working people

27:42

up, it goes back to the main street

27:44

versus Wall Street. And the the second

27:47

plan is to the reorder the international

27:52

trading system and bring manufacturing

27:55

jobs back to the US and you have

27:59

reinvigorate the the middle class

28:01

because again through tariffs well to to

28:05

use

28:06

tariffs that we're needed to bring other

28:10

countries uh into line and to create an

28:13

economic incentive to onshore for some

28:17

industries and some supply chains. Well,

28:19

so there there's tariffs. Then I think

28:22

there are three other things we can do

28:24

which are the centerpiece of the

28:26

administration. We can have the low and

28:29

predictable taxes. We can substantially

28:33

uh slash regulations because regulations

28:37

are the equivalent of that'll drive

28:38

investment dollars, private investment

28:39

dollars and predictability in

28:41

regulations. Uh and then uh cheap

28:45

energy, right? And sorry, what what is

28:48

the relationship between the tax cuts

28:51

and um the getting to 3% three and a

28:55

half% deficit as a percent of GDP,

28:58

especially because the CR unfortunately

29:00

gave folks a get out of jail free card

29:03

because we kept the you know $2 trillion

29:05

cap for the next alone. Uh yes. Uh, but

29:11

you got to have we we I I I been in this

29:15

building. I think this is my seventh

29:16

week. President Trump been back at the

29:19

White House for eight weeks. So, you

29:21

actually do need time. Yeah. So, what a

29:25

lot of people who weren't happy about

29:26

the CR, but shutting down the government

29:29

wouldn't have been productive either

29:30

politically or economically. So, sorry.

29:32

Does does um tax cuts get made up with

29:36

tariffs or does tax cuts get made up

29:38

with cutting government spending? Well,

29:41

tax cuts will so tax cuts and

29:44

deregulation will uh change the growth

29:48

traje

29:51

uh if trend line has been 1.8 eight. If

29:54

you can move the growth to three or

29:56

above, right, then you really change

29:58

their trajectory and if you can um keep

30:02

expenses flat or do the unthinkable and

30:05

cut expenses, then you can really So

30:08

this is important. So sorry, government

30:10

revenue as a percent of GDP can go lower

30:13

if you have lower expenses and a faster

30:16

growing economy. Yes, I think that's

30:18

like really important for folks to

30:19

understand that relationship. And so in

30:22

isolation, tax cuts might reduce

30:24

revenue, but when done with reduced

30:26

government spending and deregulation and

30:28

a reordered international trade model,

30:30

you theoretically will accelerate

30:32

economic growth in this country,

30:34

increase government revenue overall,

30:36

even with a lower tax rate. That's kind

30:37

of a theory, right? And and you know,

30:39

I'll I'll tell you, shame on me. I I was

30:42

in the investment business 35 years. I I

30:45

talk very confidently that CBO scoring

30:47

says this and it turns out I I didn't

30:50

know you know what about CBO scoring.

30:52

Like when you're on this side of the

30:53

wall, you realize how crazy it is. It's

30:55

crazy. So So just quite a gameable

30:57

system. It's a Yeah, it it's very

30:59

gameable. And one of the most gameable

31:01

parts of it is in normal CBO scoring

31:05

that so we we're calling we're saying

31:08

that we want to renew the tax cuts,

31:10

right?

31:11

We're actually just renewing the current

31:14

tax regime, right? That but somehow a

31:18

after they

31:19

expire then they go back to the old

31:23

rate. Spending never changes like

31:26

spending never has to get renewed. And I

31:28

think when when I look and think about a

31:30

mental model and how does systems work,

31:33

how do they break down? One of the

31:35

things that has caused this spending

31:37

bulge is this idea that you never had to

31:40

rescore spending. Oh, it's nuts. And the

31:43

incentive model is when you have a

31:46

constituency that you represent as an

31:48

elected representative that's earning

31:51

from that spending, they're telling you,

31:53

"If you want to get reelected, make sure

31:54

my earnings stay and get me more." And

31:57

then every year you've got a set of

31:59

elected representatives whose, you know,

32:00

primary objective in a democratic system

32:02

is to go in and get more money for their

32:05

constituents. How do we solve that

32:06

fundamental problem? How do you think

32:08

about that? Well, you got to deal with a

32:10

second. Do you actually think that

32:11

that's true? Do you think that most

32:13

politicians are here to just get money

32:14

for their Good question. Yeah. Yeah. I

32:17

mean, it's it's OPM. It's other people's

32:19

money, but they Danny DeVito had that

32:22

movie. Yeah. But but you you would

32:24

regard that as being a good politician.

32:26

Like you brought home the bacon for for

32:28

your district. Yeah. That because

32:32

the the CR a lot of people didn't like

32:35

it. But one of the things that a lot of

32:37

people didn't like there were no

32:38

earmarks in it. Like how dare they?

32:40

Totally. The Christmas tree bill that

32:43

kind of shows up at the 11th hour where

32:44

everyone gets a little bit. Yeah. Can

32:46

you talk about So we talked about this

32:49

deregulation as this one very important

32:51

lever, right? So how do we add 50 100

32:53

basis points of growth back in? We're

32:55

going to do it through

32:56

deregulation. How do you undo the

32:58

financial corset as you said? What are

33:00

the what are the sort of three or four

33:02

big ideas that you'd like to affect?

33:04

Yep. So um we are

33:08

reexamining all all the bank regulations

33:11

and why why are they there? Why why do

33:15

banks have to I can't remember it's five

33:17

or 7% to hold treasury bills. What are

33:21

the regulations? Why do I I had a whole

33:23

group of community bankers or small

33:26

banks here last week? And why do they

33:29

have to hold the same amount of capital

33:32

that JP Morgan and Wells Fargo and City

33:35

hold when they don't have the

33:38

complexity? They don't have why do the

33:41

regulators one one of these small

33:44

bankers said, "Well, you know, Bank

33:46

America does it this way." Well, Bank

33:48

America has a trillion dollars in

33:49

deposits. Yeah, this was

33:51

$183 million. Yeah, but when you look at

33:55

the regulatory overhang of some of these

33:56

things, Basel 1, Basel 2, you have all

33:58

of these frameworks and then as a

34:00

result, all these organizations that are

34:02

running around trying to help you

34:04

administer this complexity, all it does

34:06

is just lower economic activity in the

34:09

end. Well, and and but it's I know you

34:11

all talk about incentives a lot. Back to

34:13

incentives. What's a regul regulator's

34:16

incentive just to keep like keep

34:19

tightening the corset? They don't care

34:22

about growth. They they don't care about

34:26

the uh common sense. Turn off turn off

34:29

every risk. It's their job. If you had

34:30

to create a metric then to say, okay,

34:32

here's how we're going to measure this

34:34

undoing of the financial corset. Is it

34:37

sort of the lending velocity by private

34:39

lenders so that the private releveraging

34:42

can occur? Is that a good way to think

34:43

about or is rates a way to think about

34:45

it? Well, it it doesn't have to be

34:47

rates, but if if we do all the things I

34:50

was just talking about, if we

34:51

deregulate, if we have cheap energy, the

34:54

I if we shed excess labor from the

34:57

government, if we get government

34:59

spending down, then rates inflation

35:02

should come down, rates should come

35:03

down. Yeah. Uh but the on the question

35:07

of how are we going to measure it? I I

35:11

don't have any problem with private

35:12

credit. Yeah. Like I I actually think

35:14

it's exciting the dynamic. It's dynamic.

35:17

It meets the business where it is. Yeah.

35:19

I agree. And the the strength of the US

35:21

financial system is the depth and now

35:24

the breadth. But you you could see that

35:27

what's

35:28

happened that so much lending is being

35:31

pushed outside the regulated banking

35:33

system. That tells you it's

35:35

overregulated. Yeah. Right.

35:37

So now um once we so one test will be

35:43

how has bank lending especially small

35:47

regional small banks community banks

35:49

that come undone and you these small

35:52

banks the small banks and community

35:54

banks they're 70% of a loans they're 40%

35:58

of small business loans and that that's

36:00

one of the reasons Main Street's been

36:02

stifled. So can you talk about then how

36:04

you will work with the Fed in sort

36:08

of the change of all of this financial

36:11

you need to and do you need to work with

36:12

Congress too to make these changes and

36:14

also just generally maybe your thoughts

36:16

on just the Fed in this process of

36:19

helper foe like where where do they

36:21

stand? Well the the

36:24

Fed I 100% support the Fed's autonomy in

36:29

monetary policy. Yeah. I don't agree

36:30

with it all the time, but right that

36:34

how it is. It's how it is. It's how it

36:37

is. And um so and and I've said I won't

36:42

comment on perspective policy. I can

36:43

talk about their mistakes in the past

36:45

which have been numerous. But I I think

36:48

like like with with with any system as

36:53

as it expands beyond sort of the core uh

36:57

I I actually think that some of the

37:00

things they've done in regulation some

37:02

of the things they've done kind of

37:04

climate and DEI some of the things may

37:07

maybe even non-standard monetary policy

37:10

uh threatens their independence and I

37:13

want them to stay strong robust and

37:15

independent on monetary policy on

37:18

regulation. I I think that they have

37:21

they have been much too harsh on

37:25

especially the smaller smaller banks,

37:28

medium banks. U so there are three main

37:31

bank regulators. There's the Fed off

37:34

office of control of the currency OC and

37:36

the

37:37

FDIC and then there other regulators the

37:41

SEC CFTC but the banking regulators at

37:45

the federal level are those three. here

37:48

at Treasury, we have something called

37:51

FSOC and financial stability oversight

37:54

council and um I chair that and via that

38:00

the president's working group uh which

38:03

is another convening mechanism that I I

38:07

plan to just keep pushing for you know

38:10

safe sound and smart deregulation like

38:14

why are we doing this why are we doing

38:16

that and you again that there's a

38:19

capital charge to banks for buying

38:21

treasury bills. Totally. So I I actually

38:23

think there's a chance that if we take

38:26

it's it's called the supplementary

38:28

leverage ratio. If we take that away,

38:31

it's it becomes a binding constraint on

38:33

banks. We might actually pull Treasury

38:36

bill yields down by 30 to 70 basis

38:40

points.

38:42

Every basis point is a billion dollars a

38:45

year. Can we talk about that for a

38:47

second? So

38:49

I think and I' I've said this for a year

38:51

probably, but the one of the biggest

38:53

mistakes that I think Janet Yellen

38:55

affected was this continued issuance of

39:00

money on the short end of the curve to

39:02

finance these deficits which gives you

39:06

you inherit an incredibly difficult

39:08

challenge. I think over the next nine

39:10

months I think there's like nine or 10

39:12

trillion that has to get refinanced. Do

39:13

you want to talk about that?

39:15

Yeah. Look, I I I thought that it that

39:18

when rates were low, you're supposed to

39:20

term out rates. Exactly. And in instead

39:24

the the Treasury for the past few years

39:27

has pulled rates in. And I think part of

39:30

that was to keep rates lower that they

39:34

they changed the issuance schedule when

39:37

rates move back up towards 5%. I I um

39:42

have maintained that policy, but I'm

39:45

maintaining it because let's go back to

39:48

David's

39:50

question of when when are you going when

39:53

are we going to see the results from

39:55

this the getting the government spending

39:58

under control and I don't think the

40:00

markets recognize it yet. Yeah. Like

40:02

like you know again if we do they don't

40:04

they're not sure what to believe. I

40:06

mean, we hear this commentary a lot like

40:08

what do you really what we people

40:09

there's just a lot of uncertainty.

40:11

There's a big spectrum of opinions

40:13

there. Yeah. Like like the the central

40:16

value tendency, you're right. The

40:18

central value tendency like what's the

40:20

center of it because the the range of

40:23

outcomes is so so broad and you know

40:27

like we know we know there's a problem

40:30

there. We know there's waste, fraud, and

40:32

abuse. Quantify it. Quantify it. So I I

40:35

think as we are more able to quantify

40:37

it, we will get credit for it. So let me

40:40

go back. So outside of waste, fraud and

40:43

abuse as it's termed, I want to go back

40:46

to the question I asked earlier. How

40:47

much do does this administration need

40:50

Congress to act to get to 3 to 3 12%

40:54

deficit to GDP? And how what's your read

40:58

on the Congress and how willing and able

41:01

they are to take the action that's

41:03

needed here? Yeah, I I I think there are

41:05

a lot of headlines especially after the

41:07

CR about the Democrats being in disarray

41:10

and media like media likes to write

41:12

about disarray.

41:14

I I think the under or untold story here

41:17

is Republicans have for a change

41:20

actually been very disciplined that and

41:23

I think a lot of

41:24

that President Trump is kind of

41:27

shephering the party, shephering the

41:30

movement because imagine he said, "Oh,

41:34

that Mike Johnson will never get

41:37

reconciliation instructions out of he's

41:41

got such a slim majority." Well, he did

41:43

it. He did it. Yeah. That he'll never be

41:47

able to pass a clean CR. He did it. He

41:50

did it. So, let's see what happens with

41:53

the budget. So, we need Congress to be

41:56

our partners on the budget. They're very

41:58

engaged, the House and the Senate, that

42:01

everybody recognizes that if we don't

42:03

get this done, it's going to be the

42:04

biggest, it's past fail. It's the

42:07

biggest tax hike in history. Where does

42:09

Doge come in?

42:11

Well,

42:13

Doge, that's the the cost cutting and

42:16

it's the first time we've really ever

42:18

had business people looking at it. The

42:20

this Clinton Gore Commission that we

42:22

hear a lot of like or hear a lot about.

42:25

I I think it was a bunch of business

42:26

school professors and but here you've

42:30

got real CEOs. You got Lutnik, you got

42:32

Bergam, you got Elon. I mean, this

42:33

cabinet is stock full of experienced

42:37

operators that can go in and identify

42:40

where there's an opportunity for saving

42:42

the taxpayers money and still getting

42:44

the results. Well, it's that and we we

42:47

had this crypto council meeting the

42:49

other day and I was sitting as looking

42:51

it was myself, Secretary Lutnik, and

42:54

Kelly Laughler. Everybody was a market

42:56

person. like forget business like we and

42:59

but with Doge

43:03

that I am

43:05

completely aligned with what Elon's

43:08

doing and everyone says, "Well, do you

43:10

have to do it so fast? You have to do

43:11

it." I I like I said, I've only been in

43:14

in this business for 7 weeks. I've only

43:17

been in DC for 8 weeks. But the thing I

43:19

can tell you is if you don't move fast,

43:22

the vested interest will weigh you down.

43:26

like the the the quicksand will come up

43:29

or the claws get the claw. Yeah.

43:32

Everybody's got lobbyists. Everybody's

43:35

got I mean, think about it. Within a 10

43:38

10 mile radius of here, 25% of the GDP

43:42

of the US pulsates through here.

43:45

Pulsates every day. Yeah. And everybody

43:48

wants to just skim a little. I I said to

43:51

uh e Elon and we were in a meeting and I

43:55

said, "You know, people are mad at you

43:57

cuz you're moving their cheese." And he

43:58

goes, "It's not their cheese. It's the

44:00

American people's cheese." 100%. Every

44:02

dollar spent goes into someone's pocket

44:04

and that person's going to fight tooth

44:06

and nail to get that dollar to keep

44:07

flowing into their pocket. And it's a

44:09

it's a it's a very like there is no

44:12

winning in Elon's role. There's every

44:15

single time he takes action there are

44:16

people that are going to come after him

44:18

that are going to come after the

44:19

administration. There's no situ and and

44:22

obviously gets recast reclassified in

44:25

the media as being something different

44:27

but there's nothing but downside as you

44:30

make these changes to individual

44:32

organizations that participate and then

44:34

it takes a while for the flow of that

44:36

money to find its way or those

44:38

individuals to find their way back into

44:40

the productive private economy. That's

44:42

where I think there's a big gap and a

44:43

big challenge in the perception of the

44:45

actions that are going on with the

44:46

changes right now is everyone sees the

44:48

cuts, but they don't see the benefits.

44:50

And that's nine months, 12 months, 15

44:52

months down the road. And that's a

44:54

really hard thing to reconcile for most.

44:56

Yeah. And I I'd say there are a couple

44:57

of things, too, is one like everyone's

45:00

hearing cuts and they think they're

45:02

government services. That's right.

45:04

That's right. And they're not. I I keep

45:07

saying it's the Department of Government

45:10

efficiency, not government extinction,

45:13

not government elimination. And can we

45:16

make it run much better with fewer

45:19

people with fewer costs? And you I don't

45:22

want to demonize any of these federal

45:24

employees cuz I tell you in this

45:25

building, I've been so impressed with

45:28

the quality of the the people. I I would

45:30

have hired them in my private firm. They

45:33

are great public servants. I need you to

45:35

stay for the weekend. and I need a

45:36

25page memo in 72 hours that super high

45:41

quality. I I actually think what when

45:45

when all this is done

45:47

there there will have been two big

45:49

savings. One will been on these

45:51

contractors. Sure. Which totally we were

45:53

just talking about this. We were with

45:55

Elon just now with an incredible stat.

45:57

He said I'm not going to name the firm

45:59

so that I don't want to but he said this

46:01

one organization gets 98% of their

46:03

revenue from it was in the newspaper so

46:05

we can say it. It's booze Allen.

46:08

We were talking about this and then but

46:10

then we were going through the numbers

46:10

on the other firms and it's just the

46:12

whole thing. What kind of risk

46:14

management is that by the way? Yeah.

46:15

Yeah, but but it tells you

46:18

that that they didn't manage the risk.

46:21

That's right. Tells you how entrenched

46:23

they believe they were and how good it

46:25

is for them. And how good it is. You're

46:26

absolutely right. And and the way the

46:28

way the grift works, you can only have

46:31

six-month contracts, but there are

46:33

people who have had 40 six-month

46:35

contracts. Incredible. Like they've been

46:37

in situ for 20 years. Incredible. And

46:40

it's this whole I'm so happy there is

46:44

transparency and visibility into this.

46:46

If for nothing else the administration

46:48

providing this level of insight and data

46:52

I think is so important for taxpayers

46:54

and individuals in this country to see

46:56

to recognize and importantly to

46:57

understand just how much of this grift

47:00

is going on. It's frightening and I'm

47:02

glad that it's like being addressed and

47:04

and the American people can see if they

47:06

want it. So this is what I was going to

47:08

ask you. Let's just say that some

47:10

somehow the Borg slows this whole thing

47:13

down. You know what people say is that

47:16

the conventionalism well then the only

47:18

place to look will be things like

47:19

entitlements.

47:21

Good question. Yeah. Do you do you think

47:23

that that's true?

47:24

Well, I I

47:27

I think that now that the cat's out of

47:31

the bag that the American people are are

47:34

not going to stay with this is that you

47:37

may maybe again here may maybe in the

47:41

Northeast Corridor um there's some push

47:44

back, but when I've seen the polling

47:46

data and the rest of the country does

47:48

not want this to stop and this

47:51

administration's not gonna stop. Yeah.

47:55

the courts, they're trying to throw sand

47:56

in the gears with the courts and how

47:59

some judge can say, "Oh, all these

48:02

workers have to come back in." And but I

48:05

I also think we've moved really quickly

48:09

now. I think when we start putting out

48:11

some of the ane anecdotes and the the

48:15

messages and talk about what's

48:17

happening, like I I'll talk about it. I

48:20

I'll be talking about it soon, but there

48:22

there's one very large department that

48:24

everybody deals with on April 15th that

48:28

their help desk is fully staffed 24/7,

48:32

365 days a year. They have the same

48:34

number of people on Christmas Eve as

48:38

they have on April 14th. Wow. This is

48:40

this this, by the way, is something that

48:42

I've seen being a lightning rod.

48:44

Theoretically, every dollar you spend on

48:46

the IRS, you get $3 back or whatever it

48:48

is. That's not necessarily true. Like I

48:51

just want to be clear that there's you

48:53

can still get all your tax revenue at

48:54

the federal level, but you don't need to

48:56

waste. Well, look, I I mean I'd be the

48:58

ultimate chump if I said, "Oh, we're

49:00

going to cut spending." Yeah. But I also

49:03

cut revenues with with the IRS, which

49:06

Treasury controls. My my three goals are

49:10

very simple. Revenue enhancement,

49:13

privacy, and customer service. Totally.

49:16

You know, there's a there's a body of

49:18

knowledge that says if we just fed in,

49:20

and by the way, four or five of these

49:22

companies can do this. Now, if we just

49:24

fed in this entire federal tax code into

49:27

these AI models, what you can give to

49:29

Americans is a very guaranteed, resolute

49:32

ability to file taxes with the assurance

49:35

that there is no waste, fraud, and

49:36

abuse. And now all of a sudden, you take

49:39

this incredible weight off of people's

49:41

shoulders. Um you know sometimes it is

49:43

said that you get audited for almost

49:46

political reasons. It seems like you

49:47

know uh people that not almost we have a

49:51

big we we we had a big announcement on

49:55

Tuesday and we brought in the 200 Biden

49:59

whistleblowers who they uh have a lot to

50:02

say about who gets audited, who doesn't.

50:04

They're going to be sitting in this

50:06

building working on IRS the matters and

50:11

understanding exactly how these audits

50:13

get triggered, how these political witch

50:16

hunts happen and trying to the change

50:21

the ethos of the building. And again,

50:25

99% of the people at the IRS are good

50:28

people. It's just like all these other

50:30

agencies where they're they're bad

50:32

folks. But to your point, this is where

50:33

technology can create um very reliable

50:38

guard rails for the American citizen

50:40

where it's like, okay, well, if this

50:42

model says I owe $1,000 in tax, this is

50:45

it. I'm not trying to change anything.

50:47

I've fed it all the software first and

50:49

you just know. Let me go back to

50:52

entitlements.

50:53

Um I talked last week on our podcast

50:56

about social security. Mhm. Social

50:58

Security has a $2.7 trillion balance,

51:01

which is just a basically a Treasury

51:04

bond that's owed that they can't trade

51:06

out of. Should Social Security have

51:08

invested in the S&P or invested in

51:10

equities? And why don't we turn Social

51:12

Security into a sovereign wealth fund

51:14

and invest it for the benefit of all

51:16

Americans going forward? Yeah, I I I

51:19

think there there's the optimal, then

51:21

there's the

51:24

possible. George W. Bush tried to

51:27

privatize social security and you I I

51:30

saw your your numbers listened to your

51:32

numbers going way back 1971 1971 and

51:36

with 15 16 trillion that we'd have I I

51:40

don't know what the numbers are since W

51:42

tried it. Yeah, they'd be substantial.

51:45

We we wouldn't be thinking about a

51:48

problem in a few years. But I think now

51:52

you got to play the hand you're dealt. I

51:54

think we are dealt the social security

51:56

uh hand. And I think maybe we could

51:59

re-engineer it if we could create the

52:02

sovereign wealth fund and have that on

52:04

the other side. There are a lot of

52:06

philanthropists who are looking at baby

52:08

bonds. So if you can create a some kind

52:13

of an investment account for newborns

52:17

then that would run on a parallel track

52:21

to social security. So that would be

52:25

compounding. The other thing would be a

52:27

safety net. Yeah. But it's still sitting

52:28

in treasuries on the other side. Y and

52:30

that's where there's an opportunity not

52:32

just to drive up returns but participate

52:35

in the American economy and give all

52:37

Americans today the ability to know that

52:39

they have some participation in the

52:40

American economy rather than having

52:42

their retirement funds being sitting as

52:45

a loan to the federal government for

52:46

spending which I think could be a big

52:48

dramatic change. I don't know if they

52:50

need to be independent but I I I would I

52:52

think it's a it's a real opportunity for

52:54

us. Are you are you excited by the idea

52:56

of the sovereign wealth fund? I I am and

52:58

I'm excited by the idea like this is

53:02

pres President Trump. Everything he does

53:05

isn't in a straight line, but I

53:08

guarantee he has a destination in mind.

53:11

And the idea that he's going to be the

53:15

first president in generations who is

53:18

going to he wants to create assets for

53:21

the American people, not just debt.

53:23

Yeah. Yeah. So he wants to take the debt

53:25

down. And then this idea of assets,

53:29

there was a lot of talk about this

53:30

economic deal we're going to do with

53:32

Ukraine. That would have gone in the

53:34

sovereign wealth fund, right? Yeah.

53:36

Government has big stake

53:39

in Fanny May and Freddy Mack. Yeah. When

53:43

it comes out of conservatorship, where

53:44

does that go? Where where does that go?

53:47

As you mentioned, Doug Doug

53:49

Bergam did great work when he was

53:52

governor of North Dakota. North Dakota

53:55

has the equivalent of two state

53:57

sovereign wealth funds and for I don't

54:00

know are they 7 8 900,000 people. I

54:03

think they had $25 billion, right? And

54:06

Alaska permanent the Alaska permanent

54:08

but all all that's from the natural

54:10

resource money going in. So to the

54:13

extent we

54:14

start the other day when the sovereign

54:17

wealth fund was announced, President

54:19

Trump surprised me in the oval and said,

54:21

"Could you make a few remarks?" And I

54:22

said, "Well, we're we're going to we're

54:24

going to mo we're going to mobilize the

54:26

asset side of the balance sheet." And

54:27

all the gold books said he's going to re

54:29

he's going to revalue the gold. I I can

54:31

say today we're not revaling the gold,

54:33

but what we are going to do is Doug

54:36

Bergam at Interior, every other

54:38

department head is looking for the

54:41

assets that we can mobilize. So if if we

54:45

have energy leases, federal government

54:47

own back to the housing shortage.

54:49

Federal government owns a lot of land in

54:52

downtown urban areas. Can we or in

54:55

suburban adjacent things in in Nevada

54:58

and Utah, can we use that land? Yeah. Do

55:01

you see a wave of privatizations as a

55:04

way to sort of both pay down the

55:05

deficits and debts and also just to

55:07

that? That's important to me. Like why

55:09

put in a sovereign wealth fund versus

55:10

pay down the debt? Help help kind of do

55:12

the finance math for us on Oh, could you

55:14

think you get a higher return, right?

55:17

Well, anything anything that beats our

55:19

current return, our current interest

55:21

rate. Yeah. I mean, not not that I'm

55:24

keeping score, not that I watch it

55:25

closely, but the 10-year Treasury today

55:27

is 428. 428. Yeah. So, um, it's

55:31

responding well. Can can we can can we

55:33

do better Yeah. than four can we do

55:36

better than 428? And I think with this

55:39

group and this cabinet and if we can put

55:41

in right right now, we're working on the

55:44

the study group for the sovereign wealth

55:46

fund and we want to do best practices.

55:48

We're talking to people around the

55:50

world. We're talking to investment

55:51

people. Uh we're talking to uh a lot of

55:55

the other big sovereign uh funds and

55:58

we're going to do best practices and we

56:01

want this to be a legacy event. Totally.

56:04

Dan Lo made this comment that the

56:05

Australian superanuation they've got 30

56:07

managers and they have as much in their

56:11

on their balance sheet today in their

56:12

fund than Social Security does about $3

56:15

trillion and they have 7% of our

56:18

population. Yeah. No, it's incredible.

56:20

It's incredible. It's incredible. And I

56:22

was with one of the Middle Eastern funds

56:25

and you know, I said something about oil

56:27

revenue. We haven't had an an injection

56:31

into the fund in 20 years. Why was this

56:33

such a miss for America? What happened

56:35

in the United States? Was that we took

56:37

every excess dollar we had and we

56:39

invested it in the future? We bought in

56:41

we built infrastructure. What happened

56:43

that kept us out of this model where

56:46

others were so successful and clearly

56:49

have now gotten ahead of us and their

56:51

their people have a greater kind of

56:53

safety net than we do. Yeah. I I I think

56:55

it it was just this idea of it it was

56:58

supposed to be a safety net, not some

57:00

kind of prosperity ramp.

57:03

The old age and survivors disability

57:05

insurance fund. That's what it's called,

57:07

right? Under social security. you uh

57:09

you've mentioned cheap energy as a

57:11

critical part of this holistic program I

57:14

think three times now. Where do we make

57:18

mistakes in that path where energy gets

57:20

out of control? What what do we need to

57:22

do to make sure that energy actually the

57:24

the incremental cost of the electron

57:27

basically goes to zero? Well, I I think

57:29

the biggest challenge we're having right

57:30

now is trying to get private sector to

57:35

lock in for some things that might not

57:39

have a payoff for 5 10 years and how do

57:43

we avoid student body left, student body

57:45

right with administrations coming and

57:47

going. So we're we're trying we're we're

57:49

working on well this is an incredibly

57:51

nuanced and I think an important point

57:53

because we have this very vibrant as you

57:55

know tax equity and transferability

57:57

market that allows a lot of these

58:00

organizations to make these five and 10

58:02

year investment cases and you know for

58:04

all the issues with the IRA of which

58:06

there are many I think the one narrow

58:09

aspect that it did was um it calmed the

58:13

markets about the future of those

58:14

specific ITC credits and transferability

58:17

and And it's a critical thing because

58:18

there was a report, you probably saw it,

58:20

but you know, FK said 90 plus% of our

58:24

incremental electrons as of

58:26

December were from sources that were

58:29

leveraging these ITC credits and that

58:30

transferability. So to your point, we

58:32

have this very delicate balancing act of

58:34

making sure we but but there there's the

58:37

the tax side, but then the regulatory

58:40

side with with fossil, it's tougher

58:43

because it crosses a lot of state lines.

58:45

There's a lot more permitting, right?

58:47

a lot less permitting for solar farms,

58:50

for wind, for geothermal. Yeah. Yeah.

58:53

And nuclear. Uh nuclear is going to be a

58:55

big part of it, but it it's not going to

58:58

happen tomorrow. We got to fix the

59:00

supply chain and the regulatory. Well,

59:02

we got to fix the supply chain. We got

59:04

to fix the regulatory.

59:07

Um I we've got to decide which model are

59:11

we going to go with. And you know, I I'm

59:13

told that you you two probably know more

59:15

about nuclear than I do, but he loves

59:18

it. I hate it. Okay. Well, no, I don't

59:20

hate it. I mean, I I like I like

59:22

nuclear. I just think it's 10 years

59:23

away. He's a loser. Don't listen to him.

59:25

Yeah. He doesn't really It's just not an

59:26

investable thing for the

59:28

next but it's important because the

59:31

question is when it becomes one, that's

59:33

when we know we've fixed the problem.

59:34

But but but to to the point that it's

59:36

not investable, that's where the

59:38

government needs to step. Absolutely. I

59:40

100% agree with you like we that's where

59:43

we have to bridge to to the technology

59:47

we have to do the time arbitrage and

59:50

also I'm told especially with the

59:53

smaller plants that you that you need to

59:56

cluster them and you got to find

59:58

somebody who wants to cluster them and

60:00

all that. And um let me ask you one more

60:02

question as we kind of get to the end,

60:05

but uh what's been the most surprising

60:07

thing for you in this role since you've

60:09

um since you've been in office? Uh the

60:10

national security aspect that I I would

60:13

say 40 50% of my day. uh Treasury does a

60:18

lot of national security work whe

60:20

whether it's cifhious in terms of uh

60:25

foreigners who want to buy US assets

60:28

whether it's sanctions whether it's OFAC

60:32

anti-money laundering we we've just

60:35

designated the Mexican cartels as

60:38

foreign terrorist

60:40

organizations we President Trump over

60:43

the weekend launched a very aggressive

60:47

strike on missile strike on the Houthi

60:51

assets. Well, underneath that, we had

60:54

already been working for several weeks

60:56

on their bank accounts. I see. So, or

60:59

anyone who is adjacent to them, the

61:01

Iranians supply the Houthis

61:05

with the their

61:08

ecosystem. Previous to my getting here,

61:12

uh, Treasury had disrupted the ecosystem

61:14

so much that, uh, the Iranians used to

61:17

hand them cash. Now they're just handing

61:19

them here, take take this oil tanker and

61:22

try to sell it, right? So like there

61:24

there is the ability to to break that

61:26

down. When you go home and you're

61:29

talking to your kids, you're talking to

61:30

your husband and you're

61:32

like, "This was so cool." There must be

61:36

these moments where you're like, "This

61:37

was so cool. Do you have any anecdotes

61:40

that you you're comfortable sharing

61:42

where you're just like this is like I

61:43

can't believe I'm doing this job? Uh

61:45

well uh there have been several but a a

61:48

good example my family was actually

61:50

there because after the inauguration I I

61:53

asked President Trump may I bring my

61:55

family in say hello get a photo and

61:59

we're we're sitting in the oval. So,

62:01

it's myself, my 11year-old daughter, uh

62:04

my spouse, 15-year-old son, and the

62:09

President Trump's having a great

62:10

conversation with them. And and then he

62:13

said, "Oh, Scott, while you're here, let

62:15

me call in these other two people and we

62:18

need to discuss this." So, they actually

62:21

got to see government being done live.

62:26

So, you there there's that. Um, I I you

62:30

know, I I have to say I I think the the

62:33

moment with um President Trump, Vice

62:37

President Vance, President Zalinski was

62:40

kind of a once in a-lifetime thing in

62:42

the Oval Office. I hope it's once in a

62:44

lifetime. And they um but you know, I I

62:48

was sitting there kind of in the front

62:50

row of history. I I vice president,

62:53

Secretary Rubio, myself on the sofa and

62:57

watching President

62:59

Zullinsky do what I thought was the the

63:03

biggest diplomatic own goal in history.

63:05

Yeah. Yeah. I think you said it very

63:07

well in in TV afterwards. It really

63:09

really was based on and you you said

63:10

because you were there, you tried to

63:12

negotiate with him in Kev. It was a very

63:15

escalated I think you use the word

63:16

escalated or high high decibel

63:18

conversation. High decel. Yes. Yeah. So,

63:22

but it kind

63:24

of my my job for 35 years was to be

63:28

outside the room, try to put my ear to

63:30

the door, maybe lift myself over the

63:32

transom, figure out what the leaders

63:35

needed to do, were going to do, and then

63:38

how it would affect the markets. And now

63:42

it

63:43

it's fantastic and amazing and

63:46

stimulating and a little scary being the

63:49

person in the room who has

63:51

to what should we do? What can we do?

63:54

How's it going to affect the markets?

63:56

How's it going to affect the real

63:57

economy that what what's it going to do

64:01

to working people in America? So, how do

64:03

we fix affordability?

64:05

um we're just going to have to go

64:08

through and where where's the problem?

64:11

What's the

64:13

solution in terms of like are are the

64:17

insurance markets broken, right? What

64:19

can we do there? There's been no in I

64:24

I've been involved in the house building

64:26

business. There's been no technological

64:28

change in house building in 50 years,

64:31

maybe 60. Some of the building codes go

64:33

all the way back to the Chicago fire,

64:35

right? So, what can we do that the way

64:40

we categorize housing, it's stickuilt or

64:44

modular? Mhm. Is there something in the

64:47

middle prefab? Because the more that

64:49

comes out of a factory, the more that is

64:52

standardized that neighborhoods from DC,

64:57

from DC to Bethesda to PTOAC to like you

65:02

could be in contiguous neighborhoods and

65:05

if they're different municipalities,

65:07

they'd all have different building

65:08

codes. Not zoning, building. Yeah. And

65:11

why is that? Like it they're adjacent.

65:14

Why do the houses have to be? So, is

65:17

there some kind of window guidance that

65:19

the federal government can give in terms

65:22

of the more that comes out of the

65:24

factory, the cheaper it'll be, the

65:26

faster we can make it, things like that.

65:29

Is there pressure that you could apply

65:30

or influence you can apply? One of the

65:32

things you mentioned earlier was just,

65:33

you know, take San Francisco. There's an

65:35

artificial constraint that's created by

65:38

the zoning paradigm and it's not clear

65:41

how you unlock that. you know, maybe is

65:43

it up to private citizens to sort of

65:45

like have regime change at the local

65:46

level? Um, but how do we sort of unclog

65:50

that part of it to marry up with this

65:52

kind of stuff? Because it would be great

65:53

if you could just build up in many

65:55

places. Yeah. Well, I I I think there

65:57

are a lot of things where you can look

65:58

around and

66:00

find what's

66:02

interesting that some what's something

66:05

that's interesting that's being done

66:06

somewhere. So, I I lived in Greenwich,

66:10

Connecticut for a while. may maybe the

66:11

richest suburb in America. There's a ton

66:14

of multifamily there. Very expensive,

66:17

very nice multifamily. There's some

66:19

affordable housing, but Greenwich is not

66:24

all 10 acres and a horse farm.

66:29

The state of Connecticut has put in a I

66:32

guess it's a law that every municipality

66:37

has to allocate 10% of vacant land to

66:41

multifamily. And if the zoning board

66:45

won't give you a hearing, you as a

66:47

developer, you as a nonprofit for

66:51

housing can go over the top and go to

66:53

Hartford and then Hartford will give you

66:58

the authority. Well, no, no town wants

67:02

the state doing on their behalf. So now

67:04

the towns negotiate. Yeah. So, like I I

67:07

think that there are a lot of things

67:09

that that can be done again on on

67:12

insurance. Is there something that I

67:16

I've been thinking about is there

67:18

something the federal government could

67:19

do for California where we come in

67:23

everyone's paying homeowners insurance

67:26

then there's reinsurance on top of that.

67:28

Then I think the California reinsurance

67:31

companies called Fair. Yeah. On top of

67:34

that. So it's a well it's a separate

67:35

plan but yeah yeah but but it it's it's

67:38

a you're stack you're stacking it. So is

67:41

there something we could do where you

67:44

put another layer of private money in

67:46

there and then the federal government is

67:49

the fifth risk trunch right? But if the

67:53

federal government comes in can we

67:55

mandate down here proper hygiene changes

67:59

in the building code? Well, changes in

68:01

the building code, changes in brush

68:03

cutting, right? And material choices.

68:06

Yeah. Right. Right. Yeah. Makes sense.

68:08

Great. So, I I think there's a lot if we

68:10

And obviously energy I mean just getting

68:12

back to affordability, right? Energy

68:13

costs come down. I took the words out of

68:16

my mouth. No, no, no, no. But I mean

68:18

energy costs are energy costs, but then

68:20

there's also the for food, the

68:23

transportation cost of getting it to the

68:25

to the grocery store, everything that

68:28

that's made out of petroleum products.

68:31

So I I think we we can do that. And um

68:35

you know, I think there's a lot to do.

68:38

Yeah. And it shouldn't be too hard. So

68:40

we're actually we should probably be

68:43

announcing it in about 10 days. We're

68:45

going to have an affordabil

68:46

affordability zar, but it's going to be

68:48

someone with a lot of experience in

68:51

supply chains figuring out what are a

68:55

lot of the quick fixes we can do because

68:58

back to the question,

69:01

what really has people

69:03

anxious, inflation for now is

69:08

actually pretty quiet in. And

69:12

um but the affordability has gotten so

69:16

away from everyone that how can we bring

69:20

that down? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Good. For

69:23

all our friends at home who talk a lot

69:25

about the conversation about climate

69:28

change and carbon-f free. I think one of

69:32

the things that I always point out to

69:34

people is the cheapest way of driving

69:36

energy production in this country is

69:38

that there's a low carbon or carbon-f

69:40

free alternative that's out there that's

69:41

actually cheaper than standing up new

69:43

new plants. Um, and there's an

69:45

acceleration. I don't know how much this

69:47

administration thinks about that

69:48

relationship. But it seems to me like if

69:50

we can unlock energy production, costs

69:52

come down and this economy transitions.

69:55

Well, it transitions and I think it's

69:57

also not being dogmatic.

69:59

Like I I I saw what the Biden

70:01

administration did with EVs. I I have an

70:04

EV. I can't wait for it to come off

70:05

lease and but also have a hybrid and I

70:10

think I fill it up maybe three times a

70:11

year. Totally. But this administration

70:14

had a jihad on hybrids because there it

70:17

it they didn't pass the purity test. So

70:21

they were picking winners and losers in

70:22

a way that a lot of us were left

70:24

scratching our heads. Yeah. Yep. And

70:26

cheap I think cheap energy solves a lot

70:28

of problems. I I I think it'll a and uh

70:32

cheap

70:33

energy is energy security too 100%. Cuz

70:37

that that's why Europe's kind of over a

70:39

barrel literally. And it's a it's why

70:43

the Russian war machine hasn't again

70:46

literally run out of gas. And to the

70:48

extent that we believe we're in an

70:50

existential arms race for technical

70:52

supremacy, it's really on one dimension,

70:54

which is AI. And that

70:56

is so needy of energy. So if we don't

71:00

pull all of these issues together and

71:02

realize that we need to basically take

71:03

the incremental cost to zero, whatever

71:05

we do, we need to create the incentives

71:07

and package it all together. I mean, we

71:08

can't we can't compete manufacturing as

71:11

without energy without we certainly

71:12

can't compete without energy. Yep. Yeah.

71:14

I mean, we're we're we're not going to

71:16

crush labor like China and some other

71:19

countries have done. So, we got to crush

71:21

the energy price. Right. Exactly. Right.

71:23

And when you're in the Oval, what are

71:24

the truths and misconceptions of the

71:26

president? Meaning on the outside and

71:28

what people know or don't know. Oh, how

71:31

about this? I we we had a lot of um

71:35

foreign leaders come in and I I knew

71:40

someone in in the in one of their

71:43

entouragees. I won't tell you which one,

71:45

but afterwards he comes up to me, he

71:47

goes, "Holy crap." He goes, "He's really

71:49

smart. President Trump has perfect

71:52

recollection because he was talking

71:53

about something that had happened in

71:54

that country 30 years ago and he said

71:57

and he really So the President Trump

72:00

listens. He is judicious. He is just

72:04

taking it all in. He likes to see how

72:06

people react.

72:08

Um it it's just incredible executive

72:11

skills. Uh yeah, and the other thing too

72:17

that he he's tough, but I went in and I

72:21

showed him, we were talking about

72:22

something the other day and I said,

72:24

"Well, you know, this is going to cause

72:26

some layoffs." He goes, "Well, let let's

72:29

try to fix it." Yeah. Yeah, let's try to

72:31

fix it. So, I I always say he really

72:35

regards himself as the mayor of America,

72:38

right? 330 million people. He wants to

72:40

be personable to everyone and he cares

72:42

deeply about all of them and he doesn't

72:44

care whether you're Elon Musk or the the

72:49

guy cutting the rose garden, but you're

72:52

his constituent.

72:54

Great. Well, Scott, thank you so much

72:56

for taking the time. This has been a

72:57

wonderful a pleasure and we really

72:59

appreciate the insight. Yeah. And thanks

73:01

for the service and thanks for doing the

73:02

role. Good. Thanks. Appreciate it.

73:04

Thanks.

73:04

[Music]

73:11

Thanks. I'm going all in.

Interactive Summary

The video features an interview with Scott Bessent, the 79th Secretary of the Treasury, who discusses the current economic challenges and the Trump administration's proposed solutions. Bessent shares his journey into finance, including his role in the 1992 "breaking of the Bank of England," and critiques the Biden administration's policies, particularly regarding debt, deficit, and inflation's impact on the middle class. He outlines a three-pronged economic plan for the US: deleveraging government spending, deregulating the financial system, and reordering international trade to boost manufacturing. Bessent also delves into strategies for addressing the affordability crisis, reforming Social Security through a sovereign wealth fund, improving IRS efficiency, and using the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to cut waste. He provides insights into President Trump's leadership style, emphasizing his intelligence, attentiveness, and concern for all Americans, and highlights the Treasury's significant role in national security.

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