freeberg had this great story there's a

machine there I've never seen this

machine in my life but he knew the

machine there's a ma Coca-Cola Freestyle

machine there's a machine that's right

by the Navy mess where we had lunch in

The Situation Room which dispenses

literally I've never seen this before

this is how out of touch you are this is

in every

7eleven theater McDonald's every movie

theater everywhere this is everywhere

you have not left I was blown away by

this machine all coca-colas all of the

gatoring let me ask you a question how

much is a dozen eggs $399 how much yeah

$399 he got it $399 that's right no

$3.99 $3.99 pretty CL depends it's

pretty much double that in the Bay Area

where Whole Foods but yeah it's half

that ask me how much milk is how much is

milk $8.99 to $1.99 depending on what

you buy how much is a sweater chamat my

sweater is $4,000

all right now we're back everybody we're

back let your winners

ride Rainman

David and instead we open source it to

the fans and they've just gone crazy

with

[Music]

it all right everybody welcome back to

the number one podcast in the world the

all in podcast with me again chamath

polya David fredberg

and look at this look at this live from

DC our bestie David Sachs is back he's

suited up in the administration and in

the fifth bestie seat for the second

time my longterm bestie cyan Bannister

hot on the trails of her new fund

getting announced congratulations on

that Sayan thank you thank you it's

excited to be back and I'm so EXC I did

not expect to see David so like I'm over

the moon I'm like so excited

well I just popped into reminisce about

this trip that jamath and freeberg just

did absolutely trip of a lifetime trip

of a life we had all the besties at the

White House it was really incredible oh

wait Jak was it

there actually it's interesting you say

that it's interesting I um I checked my

spam filters and my invite got stuck in

the spam filters but okay yeah it was a

little bit of a problem but I you know I

had ski week this week so I wouldn't

have been able to make it anyway but um

yeah you know I noticed there were some

other invites stuck in my um a couple of

other invites got stuck yeah my Jeopardy

invite I see that uh you guys are all

going to be in the next Jeopardy in the

second round my invite to Jeopardy

somehow got lost I have to talk to John

the CEO so that kind of that was kind of

a bummer also I uh also I missed my uh I

missed my invite to the Bridgerton uh

you got a cameo and Bridgerton there I

see Bri yeah guess I'm not going to be

on the Netflix show Bridgton I miss that

I think we're in a bit let's keep

going and uh looks like my white party

invite here with Diddy oh well we cut it

in oh God than God the white part oh

look ep's Island oh no I'm sorry that

was Reed Hoffman's invite that out you

bro H

yeah you're on a roll here keep

going all right all right let's get back

to it let's get back to it it was a

triumphant week for our besties there

were like uh little school girls G

on the group chat oh my God I'm in the

white house oh my god look I'm getting

closer to power what was it like Cham

your dream has come true you came here

to America from Canada you built all

this from nothing and you wound up at

the White House give it to me it was

probably the most intense three days

that we had Nat and I were there to see

the president but obviously we were

there to see saaks as well but there was

a bunch of other things that happened

happened myself freeberg new money Sunny

was

there our bestie Elon Musk obviously we

dropped in with him so to recap on

Sunday we got in it was just like

raining cats of dogs nothing to say

there then on Monday what happened was

we basically had some meetings in the

morning and then David said guys let me

just walk you around and just show you

where I were by the way we camped out in

Sax's office for three days which was

awesome so we we had the passes to be

at the westwing in the Eisenhower

Building that's Sax's office and so we

all kind of worked from there and then

we went and did our meetings from Sax's

office and Sax's incredible Chief of

Staff Tracy escorted us around anytime

we needed to go anywhere so then we we

started to walk through the West Wing we

dropped by look at Sax's office for a

second I love what you've done with the

place were you allowed to put up a piece

of art and look at that desktop rig I

think the most iconic part of the West

is the Portico where you see that those

very famous shots of all these very

important people in this case it's just

the four of us but you can see Nick

there's the shot of all of us well the

Portico connects the West Wing to the

president's residence Tracy Sax's Chief

of Staff escorted us from The West Wing

after we did an amazing tour of the West

Wing over to the residents I don't know

if we were really supposed to do it but

she she has full access so we were able

to kind of go on the walk and then we

took a walk around the residence all the

rooms but this is the entrance to the

West Wing right here so when you come in

for for meetings administrators so we

walk in Pam Bond's on our way out we we

got to meet Pam Bondi I mean it really

is amazing like members of the cabinet

are coming in and out of this door

members at work in the West Wing are

coming or leaders yeah and then we saw

like leaders coming in one of the most

iconic things we were allowed to do was

see The Press Room by the way the people

that work and we'll get to it in a

second because we met some incredible

people that work in the white house but

some of the folks that don't necess

neily get a lot of flowers like folks

that work in like the upper press room

and the lower Press Room some of the

kindest people and what they did was

they're like oh guys why don't you come

and see where they do the presidential

briefings and the one thing about the

White House is everything is just like

in a nook and cranny away so this is

where obviously you see the presidential

seal isn't there because the president

is not there but we were able to do that

we met some really The Press Room here

this is the actual Press Room this is

the way it was just like a little door

it's so small it's a door off the side

this the whole West Wing is like

disarmingly small you can walk for 15

seconds between the Oval Office and

pretty much everywhere else in the west

wing it really is a very tight and

elon's got an office in there that we

got to kind of drop in and say hi the

president obviously chth went over to

the oval then there's the situation room

I mean everything is within a couple of

steps of everything and it really is

you're in these kind of historic moments

as you walk through this you just feel

the of everything that you've heard

about and seen and all the history and

Legacy to every everything and it's just

all right there compact in one space

you're just overwhelmed it really was

overwhelming for me emotionally it was

overwhelming intellectually you just

kind of walk around and you know it's

just you're you're part of it and it was

so I was telling shamat it was so

emotional for me at the end of the day

to just be like man like you come to

this country come to

America you know from wherever you came

from and anyone can find their way into

this historic space that's the beauty of

this country and I it never really hit

me until we were in this moment so let

me show you I kind of really got it me

some really incredible people Nick you

can find a picture of myself and

freeberg and sunny and saaks we're with

Taylor

budt who's David David he's a deputy

chief of staff Deputy Chief of Staff for

communications and the White House his

office is is well placed because through

that window behind us is the gaggle

there's this lawn out on the the White

House called Pebble Beach and all the

networks have tents there and they'll do

recordings with White House officials

and the White House will be in the

background it's not like a green screen

or an LED it's the actual White House

will be in the background that's why

it's all set up there and it's called

Pebble Beach and then there's an area I

think they call it like the sticks which

is basically just like a paved area

where White House officials can go out

there and they get swarmed by all the

media asking him questions that's called

the gagle so he can keep an eye on

everything that's happening with the

media through that window in his office

is that where Marine One lands and you

see everybody yelling at the president

and trying to like talk the cops or

that's on the other side that's on the

other side it's on the other side but a

lot of those reporters will just move

over there when they have theity to do

that but like when you see when you see

Caroline levit who's the White House

Press Secretary or Steven Miller who's

the yeah Deputy Chief of Staff for

policy they'll come out and all of a

sudden they're speaking in a microphone

it'll seem impromptu there'll be a lot

of reporters that's usually the the

sticks or and that's the the White House

Gaggle we saw Elon obviously Nick you

can just show the picture of all of us

with Elon and the incredible thing is

here you

have the most incredible entrepreneur of

our

lifetime dealing with so many

complicated issues and I'll tell you

Elon Works in one of the smallest

offices I've ever seen all he has is a

desk with an enormous screen and his

phone and you can see that there is

nothing that matters except the task

hand and that's really

inspiring like it it just puts everybody

on the same level you feel this energy

that all of these guys are doing

incredible work on behalf of the country

to a one where there's no ego about some

of these things meaning what is the

office size what is this what is that

they're just here to grind and I don't

think I've ever seen a work force more

happy like you get there and the energy

and the intensity it's very much like

the TV show westwing there's just this

constant momentum every day live a whole

lifetime and everyone is just like

energized and you like I was talking to

Sax's chief of staff and she's like

there you just never calm down like you

never you're never like there's never a

dull moment here and that's why everyone

kind of has this grin on their face

they're just so happy to be doing this

work the intensity I'm I'm going to

describe to you a 45 minute or

so experience in the oval so the next

day myself and Nat and Sak go to see pus

in the oval and there's this incredible

meeting room and you're kind of you wait

there right the waiting room it's quite

large it's very beautiful you know

beautiful sofas

Etc and

then they say oh the president's ready

to see you and you get escorted into the

oval and the one thing that strike that

struck me about the oval is it's also

much smaller than what you would think

like it's a very good size and it's a

very natural

size but it's beautiful and it's

inspiring and our experience was Nat was

in the front I'm in the middle and then

David's beside me and as we were walking

through you could hear that there was

this like very important conversation

happening

between and somebody else who I won't

say about something that I won't say but

this was really important and we walk

through the oval and we walk through the

back and we go into to his private

dining room and that has all this

incredible memorabilia sticking around

Nick maybe you can show the picture of

meat and the president so we had this

conversation and in the middle of the

conversation we had a chance to watch

some Fox News together because the

Dragon capsule was landing and I texted

Elon I said hey we're in the oval do you

want to come drop in he text back can't

Dragon capsule Landing I'm like yeah I

know we're watching it right now so Nat

myself pus

saaks we're watching this thing kind of

unfold anyways then we we have our

meeting at ends and we walk out into

sort of like this area where Taylor's

office is like where that picture was

and we continue to just randomly sit

there watching and this is what you mean

freeberg Marco Rubio comes by and so now

we're just standing around there's Marco

Rubio you were talking about the the

landing and then out of the left hand

side Shake tanon comes in because he's

there to say hi to the president then he

comes in obviously says hi to Marco

Rubio says hi to me we talk for a few

minutes he leaves so the intensity of

the people just within two steps of each

other you you saw the CIA director walk

in and

out it's just an it's an

incredibly mesmerizing place where

irrespective I think of your political

ideology the minute that you're there I

think it's hard to not be anything but

Team America I think it's impossible

actually and

it's really inspiring and by the way

coming home I feel like I'm crashing

meaning like there's such a level of

adrenaline and dopamine and you know we

are like these observers so I can only

imagine saxs what it feels like for you

when you're not in that environment it's

it's a really intoxicating mesmerizing

place I think that's well said jth and

every day there's something new you know

every day you discover something new one

day it's the the Navy where you didn't

mention that but we got a chance cut

over to that

Nick yeah we had lunch there it was

incredible did you get a photo of the

burgers I did I sent make a a photo of

the burger I got the vegg burger famous

right it's got the seal on the top yeah

it's got the seal they must use some

sort of gr tool

to burn the seal the president of the

United States onto the burgers think a

nice touch by the way you want to know

something they didn't do it on the

veggie

burger what does that sending they're

sending you a message

a message yeah by the way what's

incredible about like the the narrowness

and the smallness there's just a door

that does not look all that assuming

it's very unassuming and there's just a

small sign that says Situation

Room there's a little Corridor off of

the the westwing lobby which by the way

like you said if you're hanging out in

the westwing lobby you're going to run

into all sorts of interesting people but

you go down this little passageway it's

so small the the header of the door is

so small that SRI you know does AI

policy he's 66 he almost concussed

himself once because he hit his head at

the top of the door I think the door

frame is about 6 62 is the clearance

maybe it was made over a hundred years

ago he he literally has to duck his head

every time he walks by but any event if

you walk to the end of that passageway

there's a little kiosk to get a coffee

or you turn the other way and you're in

the situation room I mean be you could

be whacking a terrorist from 4,000 miles

away or you can get a mocha

you could do both why choose Sayan you

have a question what do you you're

taking all this in uh yeah I I want to

know from David what his favorite piece

of art is there and whether or not David

and shth saw the Declaration of

Independence yeah actually yeah well go

ahead we yeah we saw it I mean so this

is the problem say I I feel like I want

to redo that moment I mean David gets to

do it every day but I want to redo it 50

times because we didn't necessarily stop

there he has to open and close the

curtains because they want to keep the

sun off the Declaration of Independence

probably a good idea I didn't think to

like oh sir can we just stop it's just

such a whirlwind that I want to

redo I think you'll get a chance to I

think you

will well when I run and I'm president

because I'm the only one here who can I

will definitely

youan oh wait Sayan you're an American

yeah yeah you're you're way to dial up

the misogyny good good for you yeah well

no I was talking about the the besties

here I forgot for a second um she best

all right listen amazing I was wondering

about the choice of the double breasted

shamat this is a strong strong Choice

here to go double breast it to the White

House take me through the thinking so

first of all big shout out to uh Luca

rubinacci my Taylor I did double breast

it on Monday and Wednesday whoa two in

this you so you quadded it in one week

but then I I went I went single breasted

to see I did notice that yeah it's a

little gratuitous to go triple double

yeah you don't want to triple double no

by the way so we're we're hanging the

White House and we got the random it was

like 1:00 in the afternoon chth on

Monday when they said hey would you guys

like to sit down with Secretary of the

Treasury Scott bessent and so then

special bonus episode they're like at

5:30 today and we had a dinner at 7 7:30

so it was pretty tight but we were like

yes that sounds good so then we got to

go over to treasury later in the

afternoon we had a camera guy com and

set up so yeah here's this this this

beautiful room in treasury I forgot the

name of the room

yes it was like the something chase room

I think we got to find this beautiful

room so we set up the interviews on

YouTube obviously on X and on the Main

feed it's on the Main and on the Main

feed and then we got a call after we did

the best in interview and and it you

know I think folks that were there from

press that that were that was great

Howard lutnick who chth was going to be

doing a meeting with on Wednesday

morning right before we were flying home

said what if I come in early before our

meeting jth and we do a sit down so we

said let do it so then we got to go to

the White House Press Auditorium they

have a special Auditorium just outside

the west wing and you guys will

recognize the stage obviously from many

Biden press interviews here's the the

stage and so then we did this interview

with letnik and my God this is going to

be a barn burner of an interview when it

comes out I ran into him after he had

done this interview and he was he was

excited about it sounds like you guys

were on fire he was on fire sacks I mean

this guy I think it's going there's

going to be so many Clips out of this

interview it was incredible it was like

over an hour and a half wow and he just

kept going and going he yeah after there

afterwards we went to his building by

the way you know that he's a secretary

of Commerce Howard's office is the war

department office the old war department

office so we jumped in his car and we

went to his office it is the most

beautiful I I this is again I didn't

think to stop and take photos I should

have t taken more photos but his office

is outrageously beautiful Sak I don't

know if you've been over there yeah I

have yeah I

let me let me just say one thing I want

to say that politics and policy aside

these individuals from the White House

Deputy Chief of Staff to these members

of the cabinet to all the staff that

work in the West Wing were incredibly

open and transparent there were no press

people intervening or involved it was

very random very ad hoc that we got to

have these sit down conversations and

they were just so open and I just want

to say like that was really refreshing

and really incredible and and I feel

really privileged had the opportunity to

kind of sit through this but you know I

I was not expecting this on this trip at

all I think that when you work in the

White House and and you have been

successful in the private sector like as

Scott Besson or Howard lutnick or myself

or Doug bergham or Doug beram or Elon

especially I would describe it as a

money forp purpose trade you're giving

up money but the sense of purpose you

feel working for the White House for

this President is just incredible and I

think you guys kind of picked up on that

and in my view that's a trade that you

should be happy to make any day of the

week because it is really an honor to to

work at the the White House and for this

President because he actually wants to

get things done on behalf of the

American people the default state of

Washington is just that nothing gets

done right you guys know that the

bureaucracy and the the entropy and the

inertia just basically rule the day and

so it takes a President Who number one

has a mandate for the American people

number two has a tremendous sense of

mission and purpose and number three

bring tremendous energy to the job and

then I think finally assembles the right

team around him and those are the

conditions under which you can actually

make change positive change for the

country and we have that and it's kind

of a once- in a-lifetime Opportunity if

we don't get this done now if we're not

able to cut the deficit and debt now

when are we ever going to do it this is

the you know this is a once in lifetime

opportunity and I think everybody there

feels that I think everyone in the White

House is really proud to be there and

and excited to be there and and it's fun

and you know part of it is that the you

know you can tell that the the president

he makes his job fun because he's having

a great time yeah he was really I think

Born to do this job I mean in so many

ways he just brings so much energy to it

he's IND fatigable there's so many he's

empowering he's like everyone we met

with sack to your point they've all been

successful in another part of life and

in business and whatnot and they're

generally post-economic people but he's

letting everyone run we got to meet with

several other members of the the cabinet

and they were all sharing with us that

they're being given autonomy and

Authority they can just run and I think

that that's really important if you want

to bring in high impact people you need

to let them have an impact and let them

do their thing I I observe that can I

give you one quick anecdote maybe to

wrap this segment up so when we're

sitting in when we're at the private

dining

room Steve witkoff who's another

incredible

entrepreneur was dealing with something

sensitive comes in tells the president

he's like okay great great job then

there was three other issues SX had

something then Sergio had something and

then on top of all of that so there's

this bang bang bang and then he's also

like guys listen for this dinner coming

up I really want to make sure the

Acoustics is right so everybody has an

opportunity it's like the level of

detail from the most important thing all

the way down to literally the Acoustics

in the dining room he is on top of all

of it and I was just like and that was

again just in my small little brief

observation I was like this is crazy to

your point like the energy and the the

IND fatigability and the desire to get

every little thing right it's pretty

rare it's I I kind of feel like

America's in good hands to be honest you

saw it just in those few minutes when

he's being peppered with so many

decisions so many actions so many

decisions you just realize what a

demanding job it is and you really need

a person who just is special in that way

that they're just somehow cut out for

that that type of job it is yeah very

difficult totally agree I think freeberg

is totally right if we can create a

pattern where people with high executive

let's just say that because that's less

of a loaded word than businessman or

successful

whatever people with high executive

function that have proven it should at

some point in their career step into

government and replace money for purpose

if that is a trend that this

Administration creates I think America

is incredible hands eventually which was

how the founding fathers operated the

government originally there'll be a

moment guys where the rats win right

there'll be a moment when the

Republicans return to power there'll be

a moment when all the ideologies flip

but if in all of that you can find

people who are willing to pause their

private lives have demonstrated

executive function and can make the

trade we're going to just kick ass and

give

back it's great David thank you I really

honestly thank you like you are yeah

thank you DAV awesome you're awesome

thank you for giving us window into that

and shout out to Tracy as well

she's incredible Jal what do you think

of the best in interview did you see it

I did watch the best one yeah I mean

listen I would have loved to ask him a

couple questions obviously I would have

probably done a couple of fast balls

curve balls would have gone a little bit

harder but he is so impressive and you

guys did like an hour with him and I

haven't heard what did we miss that you

would have asked yeah I mean you know

you got to get a little bit into the

chaos being it's a good time for me to

drop off yeah I'll drop off

us a better job he would do

okay we'll see you later you can tell

everyone now what a great job you would

have done love you love

you see in the

commissary what a guy no I thought it

was really good to hear from him long

form I think there's a little bit of

chaos going on with the terrorists and

stuff like that but you know I don't

think the country knows how great he is

this guy is a Powerhouse he has an

incredible track record and by the way

like Trump picking him I'm going to give

Trump a little bit of flowers here

obviously folks know I'm an independent

and an never Trumper who is you know

supporting the administration to do the

best they can what does it mean to be

independent but also have another label

that says you refuse to consider

somebody I don't understand keep options

open well no I mean I I I didn't I had

my own issues with you know what Trump

did on January 6th and we don't need to

get into it overturning roie way we

don't have to get into the things that I

don't agree with what he did putting all

those things aside I think he's done a

great job with the team he's putting

here and this is you know my message to

I think some of the Americans or the

people on the left is I would look at

what he's doing and some of these

individuals these are really high

functioning individuals the last time I

think he had a cast of characters around

him who I think were kind of dark and

and I didn't care for a lot of them with

bessent this guy is like a by I think he

you know was previously a Democrat who

gave to a ton of Democrats and he is a

Powerhouse and I think he really

understands Financial was a big donor to

Hillary and then RFK was a Democrat

tulsy was a Democrat Trump was a

Democrat I mean my point I was a

Democrat you were a Democrat yeah so I

think that's you know bessent is I came

away from it saying This Guy's super

qualified and the chaos that I think

Trump has been creating with like back

and forth with the tariffs and his

communication style it made me feel

better to know that there was somebody

who was Rock Solid like him in there and

who's really thoughtful because right

now when you talk to 50 people who are

knowledgeable about the markets and say

what is the strategy here that Trump has

you get 10 different answers five

different vectors for it people are

trying to figure out exactly what he's

trying to do and there's a lot of

nonconsensus but hearing that he's got

somebody like him there and you talking

to him for an hour I felt much better

about the situation and that maybe there

is

a I think yeah it was it was a solid

interview yeah absolutely and I mean the

access level

you know most of the time he's on

something like Meet the Press or Face

the Nation and it's 11 minutes and the

guy can't breathe totally and for him to

go an hour and you kind of you did a

good job chth of sort of giving his

history with I which I think the context

most Americans don't have so I was very

proud of the job the two of you did I

wish I was there did a great job by the

way because chth T he had a very

incredible Chim by the way I got to give

you flowers for having good intuition on

some of the questions you asked both

letnik and Bess

that I think revealed a little bit more

about their character and who they are

as people which I was not on I'm all

about like what are the hard what are

the questions I want to ask related to

policy and agenda but you did a great

job bringing that out on them and that

actually I think created a lot of

texture for both interviews that I was

not pre I was not thinking about a great

job I'm looking forward to the next one

I don't know when that drops but that

should be really good oh my god dude the

letnick interviews like I

mean he's a hardcore New Yorker and like

he really

you guys talki let me tell you yeah we

did talk about listen the thing the

thing you need to know about Howard

lutnick is he is an incredibly resilient

and resourceful businessman this guy has

built himself up literally from nothing

good human I'm a little biased but he's

a great guy and you're going to hear

some really incredible stories but again

another one who

traded money for purpose look I just

want to say real quick we don't do on

the show but we did have three sponsors

that actually helped fund our DC trip

and set this thing up for us so I really

want to say thank you to hims hims.com

and for hers Gemini and it trust

everyone listening to the show please go

to the description whatever player

you're in check them out these three

sponsors help make this trip happen

we're really appreciative please take a

look at their websites give their

products a shot thank you to him Gemini

and I trust uh you guys are the best we

really appreciate it all right everybody

we got a full docket today lots of

docket and you know just hey welcome

back to the show cyan I just wanted to

start you had a really great

announcement this week long journey

Ventures your Venture Capital firm

announced $180 million fund tell us a

little bit about that well

181 181 181 and

18 18 stands for

life to people who are Jewish and my

partners are Jewish and it was something

that was very animportant uh to them and

to me uh to stand up after October 7th

and you know take a very public stance

and so we announced our funding

announcement on Bloomberg yesterday and

uh and our office is on 18th Street so

oh congrats yeah that's awesome what is

the mission of the Venture fund what

what what stage are you going to do you

and I started as Angel Investors

together 14 years ago yeah so we focus

on early stage seed checks first checkin

and you know this this fund um is our

fourth fund we institutionalized more in

the beginning it was high net worth

individuals and then now we're you know

going to kind of what chth was speaking

about earlier is aligning what we do

with our higher purpose and so now we're

helping you know institutions help

people go to school solving cancer and

things like that so every day that we

get up in the morning you know we're

we're aligning what we do our mission is

to chase the magically weird we're

looking for Alpha in things when every

body is consensus investing and they're

doing the same thing and talking about

the same things we're thinking six to

eight years in the future you know when

our fund three we invested in a company

in the chip space and you know we were

thinking ahead about what's going to

power Ai and crypto and now that

everybody's you know investing in the

application layer we're going into the

next thing which is like what is that

going to enable and what's coming down

the road and looking for Founders that

are thinking differently that most other

of my peers would look at and say that's

crazy I don't want to put any money into

that so that's that's what we focus on

this is such a hard thing for people to

get their heads around the non-consent

is BET and why that's so important I'm

you know I'm training you know new

Associates at our firm and they always

are going to safety so they're looking

at a vertical they're looking at a

startup and saying well this makes the

most sense and then they look at the

ones that don't make sense but that are

like intriguing and they are like yeah I

don't know if I want to place a bet on

that because I have I'm like that's

where the gold is non-consensus bet when

you and I did Uber it was a room of 21

people three people decided to invest 19

didn't yeah that was a magically weird

company at the time if you remember I

sent it around to multiple investors and

they came back with the stupidest

excuses I ever heard but it was their

excuse which is you know not everyone

wants a black car the car doesn't come

to my house yet uh no one wants to get

into a strangers vehicle the list goes

on and on but it takes a vision of

seeing the future and seeing how it

plays out and believing in all the

Miracles that are going to happen and

getting in early is where all the alpha

is you know before the thing is defined

as a category so that's where I like to

play is I don't want it to even have a

market name yet such a great observation

like when when a when an associate or

some research company says oh it's the

on demand economy that's when you know

that opportunity gone you can let that's

where like all of my peers can go lose

all their money in an ocean of dead

bodies because like

I don't want to play there yeah and you

had a price Advantage too right like if

you enter early before it's a defined

category you're taking on a lot of risk

and so you know I'm getting deals

anywhere from like five to 10 posts

while all of my peers are playing in the

20 to 30 range and so obviously it's

literally you and I are the product of

you know our early bets and like what

the lessons we learned and like one of

those lessons was to be in early um it's

literally what I'm doing founder

University now is just trying to do 100

it's just like a pre accelerator if I

find two or three founders who I like I

give them their first 25k check or 125k

check where they can just come you know

do it with me we're starting next Friday

so people want to come founder.

University but it's just like what we

used to do in the old days trying to get

in congrats be the first investor and

it's it's really working and it's super

fun Hey listen there is great news I

think for the Venture industry this

Google acquiring whiz I think this is

this could be the starters pistol

yeah it's absolutely fantastic Google

has acquired whz for

32 billion in cash if you don't know

what whiz is just imagine you have cloud

services like Microsoft's Azure Amazon

web services Google's Cloud Oracle Cloud

you need to have security between these

things they help do that it's the

largest deal in Google's history David

was there I think for some of the other

um big Acquisitions there haven't been a

lot of Acquisitions um we know the wrath

of Lena Conan was pretty acute for the

last four years but uh looking back in

history Salesforce buying slack which

our besti shth here was an early

investor in for 27 billion that occurred

in 2020 and then we had a couple of

things get blocked HP and was a juniper

I believe for 14 billion last year got

blocked and so and Adobe figma adobi

figma bled blocked in the UK blocked in

theuk blocked in the UK but they you

know assumed it was going to happen here

and this is actually we talked about

this on episode 189 shath whiz turned

down $23 billion from Google they said

at the time was because they wanted to

IPO but now reporting is saying I mean

it was because of the Anti-Trust stuff

under Biden plus the UK obviously go

ahead Jam you can take it from there I

think this is the Trump premium I mean

the problem when that deal was being

looked at back then was there was still

a chance

that there could be a Democrat

Administration and it was very clear

that they were anti

m&a and anti-tech quite honestly and

when Trump won I think it basically said

okay we can now look at these deals

there's another important part of this

though and this was part of our

interview with Howard lutnick I'd love

to just play this Quick Clip what I'm

doing is I'm saying okay I got to

collect tffs right so I go to one of the

great software companies of the earth

and I say I want you to give

me you're going to build for me for

America you're going to build the

greatest Customs processing ever but

what's incredible is you're convincing

these companies to basically like do

right for America and build a software

for you you think that's going to be a

movement throughout the government or is

that here's the idea I say build it for

me for free yeah I put it in for

free I don't know what other countries

in the world you think going to buy

now right if it works for us well

remember you have to you have to connect

to me yeah so every country

right this is aw what is he really

saying what he's really saying is there

are all kinds of companies that are

doing all kinds of work who Google

famously has this 20% time could you

imagine if some of this 20% time was

allocated to rebuilding the core

infrastructure of America and giving

back to the country that gives you the

ability to have a multi-trillion dollar

company that's but one example so when

you connect the dots the way that I

interpret it is that I think companies

will be much more aggressive on m&a

Jason it's what you've been asking for I

think you're going to get it and I think

the reason why you're going to get it is

you're going to have a very open-minded

Administration that'll let the m&a

happen but also there are ways where you

can build Goodwill by doing the kinds of

things that Howard is talking about I

mean could you imagine if somebody

volunteered let's say paler and said hey

we can build the following software for

the IRS so that we can just completely

automate tax returns and it's okay for

paler there still a 200 billion dollar

company they could allocate a small

amount of time and get that done if

Oracle stepped up and said something so

and all of that Goodwill will then allow

America to just grow faster and then

under that economic umbrella a little

consolidation is not necessarily a bad

thing so I'm really interested in how

all of these pieces move together that's

that's the one thing I get but I'd like

to say something else very narrowly

about whiz which is whis does not do

something that's necessarily unique

meaning there are other products in

Market but they have done one thing

better than everybody else and I think

it's really worth rewarding which is

they have incredible taste so if you use

it and all my

engineers at 8090 live inside of this

regime when I ask them hey we need to

implement something they all picked whiz

and if you ask them why and if you ask

our sis admin why did we implement it

not only is it good but it is the most

beautiful it is the most intuitive it's

the most well integrated and it's just

an incredible lesson where even when

other people do this other thing you can

build $ 32 billion doar of value by just

doing that thing in a more coherent way

I mean design matters right think having

taste and having taste matters having a

perspective Point great that that was

rewarded C what do you think of what

I'll call letnick Lighthouse customer

approach in other words make this piece

of software for the US government will

become your first customer the liouse

that pulls in other customers for free

and for free so we get it for free we

help you set the standard and then you

get to use us as your referen client

let's start with that thoughts on on

that and then we'll get into m&a I I

think that the government has long

relied on Private Industry to solve some

of its biggest problems and that's what

sets us apart from other countries in

the world and so you know you look at

some of the best companies like SpaceX

andal

Etc we need more companies like this if

we're going to compete and so doing this

absolutely makes sense and it's just

going to help the sales cycle to get

that sort of stamp of approval that you

know our government is using that

software freeberg your thoughts on

letnik Lighthouse strategy could it

work yeah I think this is what makes it

good to have you know as we talked about

earlier folks with high executive

function and business experience and

Acumen in key leadership positions in

the government so they know how to drive

kind of better economic outcomes

negotiating the price of a contract down

and saying in this case give it to us

for free one of the things letnick said

in the interview which you didn't see in

this clip is that the government can

actually accept four free contracts

these grus contracts and you don't need

to go get approval to do it so they can

operate in the executive branch oh that

makes total sense right you don't need

an approval if it's grus that makes

total that's right yeah that makes it

that's also a big unlock yeah well then

I guess we can contrast this chth with

Tim

Waltz you know VP potential VP candidate

I have a real problem with this clip

Jason this was the most infuriating

thing I've ever seen from a politician I

mean Tim

Waltz gets on stage pulls out his Stock

app and starts mocking the greatest

American car company ever created and

that its stock is down this is disra

ad.com to me play the clipnet I don't

some you know this on the iPhone they've

got that little Stock app I added Tesla

to it to give me a little boost during

the

day 225 and

Dro

so and

and if you own one if you own one we're

not blaming you you can you can take

dental floss and pull the Tesla thing

off you know and take shath you want to

talk about this communist scumbag and

what he did there no I'm not going to

say anything personal except to say that

I think that it is incredibly low

brow at the end of the day he represents

the American

people he needs to be firmly on Team

America I don't think he understands cuz

he's never actually had a real job but

the Auto industry is a vibrant part of

how many many many Americans earn their

living Tesla employs

125,000 plus

employees there is no reason a

politician should be wishing any

American company to fail period I just

think that should be the price of entry

and so to lack the basic decorum and

understanding and then to whip people up

into wanting any American company fail

there are many American companies sure I

like or dislike whatever it's not the

point they'll some that I'll buy the

stock of they'll some that I would not

that's not the point you cannot openly

and actively be cheering as a politician

at least for these things to fail that I

think is just incredibly low brow I I

think it's the bottoming out of the

democratic party that moment will be

looked at as the bottom Sayan any

thoughts I think it's incredibly low

brow I agree with chth and I think it's

just so distasteful for you know a

public official to do something like

that in especially for an American

company and it you know if you hear the

people cheering in the background it's

obvious that there's a base that

supports this and that frightens me even

more because he's saying these things

because his constitu his constituents

believe it and you know a politician

says these things because they think

it's going to motivate them to vote for

them in the future and that really

frightens me you know that we are riling

people up um to cheer on the ruction of

American company and possibly go out and

burn cars you know I think well that's

the that's a s yeah that because

whenever you incite like this kind of

aggressiveness and by the way both sides

do it you get a contingent who takes it

too far freeberg yeah maybe we wrap up

on this and then we can jump back to

whiz sorry for the diversion I think the

Democratic party um has split into two

parties there's the Democratic party

with beliefs and there's the Democratic

party without beliefs

I think that the Democratic party with

beliefs is the one that's very far left

and their beliefs are fundamentally

rooted in concepts of socialism Marxism

yes and they're very clear about those

beliefs that traditional power

structures need to be dismantled and

assets and influence need to be commonly

redistributed the rest of the democratic

party which people call the moderate

part of the party actually don't really

know what their beliefs are when you

talk to anyone in the Republican party

and a leader ship position you hear very

clearly what their beliefs are we saw it

this week in DC every member of the

cabinet that we met with and there were

quite a number of them had the exact

same message and the exact same set of

beliefs of what this Administration

stands for and what they're trying to do

you may agree with those beliefs or you

may not but they have stated their

beliefs the problem is that because the

moderates in the Democratic party have

not stated a set of beliefs a set of

objectives a vision for the country a

vision for their party the party is

effectively being represented by this

part of the party that does have beliefs

the deeply socialist Marxist beliefs and

they have basically subsumed the message

and as a result this is why people have

lost interest in the Democratic party

because the moderate aspect has not been

really clear on what their beliefs are

there's an opportunity for some of these

moderate leaders in the Democratic party

like Dean Phillips like and people may

not like me saying this but like Gavin

who I don't think is all the way over on

that far left side of the the Spectrum

to be really clear and paint a pet

vision and really State the beliefs of

the party and what the beliefs are that

differentiate them and those beliefs

recently the only thing that underscores

what that party stands for is we're not

the other guys we're not the Republicans

and that's it and so people that don't

like the Republicans are like well I

don't know because then I'm subsumed by

the Socialist Marxist rhetoric so I

don't know if I want to be a part of

that either and that's why I think a lot

of people feel left out and that's why I

think the recent polling data if you

pull it up on the Democrats is like 23%

or something in this country now it was

like 30s or something did you see the

crazy clip that did the racial

demographic split on some key issues

like things like Dei is this the one

that says white college age women are

just are like this weird anyway I think

Tim Waltz like a lot of others because

there's no other beliefs to stand for

you end up being subsumed by the part of

the democratic party that does have

beliefs and you don't have anything else

to say to State and to to show what

you're for I an idea too really good

it's a really good framing I really like

that well and here's another framing

like is it so hard to agree on something

like I think this is one of the

brilliant things that Trump did was he's

like here are some things we can agree

on and he just subsumed those like

fighting for the working class person

saying no tax on tips like these were

Democratic positions I think this just

proves that Meme where it's like all

standing here and and the left just went

too far left let me give you a everybody

yeah let me give you a piece of advice

to the Democratic party leadership that

might be listening the advice I would

give you is basically take away the

opportunity for the distinction that the

Republicans have right now which is a

more efficient government a more you

know Fair government where money isn't

wasted where your taxpayer dollars

aren't being destroyed the Democratic

party has an opportunity to stand up and

say we don't want to have things like

regulatory capture or this pork or

inside stuff going on they have an

opportunity to make that the core set of

beliefs that still aligns with reducing

government and increasing efficiency in

government effic efficiency in

government should not be a party issue

by allowing the Republicans to say we're

for efficient government it implies that

the Democrats now to be opposite of that

are saying we're for inefficient

government and if the Democrats want to

win this they can actually take that

message and say you know what we're for

more efficient government and the way

we're going to do it is get rid of

things like regulatory capture and

inside deals and all the other sort of

stuff it may you know that may not kind

of go but there's an opportunity for the

Democrats I think to really stand up and

take the country in the direction that

we all As Americans need it to go to

which is to have a sustainable federal

government and that's going to require

some degree of fiscal conservatism and

action but they could take a different

point of view on how they do it and they

could have core beliefs around that it's

it's really and and by the way Dean

Phillips were inviting back on the

program Ezra Klein Sam Harris we want to

have some more people on the left come

on here and maybe talk about this very

issue it's really three things they

could work on number one build 10

million homes in this country that are

affordable that's a really key issue

rich people should pay their Fair share

share of taxes and reform the tax code

and then uh third health care for

everyone those three would get this

party back on track we're going to make

a more efficient government you're going

to be able to buy a home you're going to

get health care and rich people are

going to start paying their taxes which

they're not and we're going to stop with

these crazy Trump tax breaks that would

be the perfect positioning and it's not

personal it's just hey we're a rich

enough country that people should get

health care why shouldn't people have

Healthcare in the modern world why can't

these rich people who are donating tens

of millions of dollars to Trump just

just pay some more taxes and and make

sure poor people have basic healthare

Sayan your thoughts and then let's get

back to the docket well I disagree with

all those points obviously but sure they

could run on them uh they have tried

they've they've definitely said we're

going to have you know health care for

all you know selling the American dream

of home ownership I actually think is

flawed in many ways we're putting people

into debt and for things they can't

afford and they get screwed and so I I

just actually think uh they to find a

unifying figure out who their moderates

are and there's also politically

homeless people we didn't include them

you know there's these people who are

just like well I can't vote right and

I'm not left either anymore so we've got

to bridge this divide somehow and

they've got to figure out the messaging

but I don't think going back to what

they used to do is going to work because

they promised universal healthcare and

it hasn't happened and they had plenty

of opportunity to do

so all right let's get back to the whiz

deal and the uh and the docket here

let's see if we there's anything we

didn't uh well we should talk about the

um you know the price they paid and we

should talk about how to do that the

Strategic rationale and how others are

going to respond all right so looking at

this the DL got sweetened massively over

the year between when the first offer

was made for 23 billion and then went up

to 32 billion the revenue roughly

doubled since the time of the first

offer and then there's some really

interesting things in the details there

is a huge breakup fee we saw the breakup

fee with Adobe and figma this one is

tremendous it's 10% of the deal size

$3.2 billion in cash they don't get an

investment if this deal doesn't go

through Google has to give whiz $3.2

billion in cash let that snc in this

company is massively high growth Zer to

100 million in their in 18 months uh

when they started and last year they

passed 500 million in ARR you know that

puts the deal at roughly 60 times

they're

run rate and that is a high price

however they're supposed to hit a

billion in ARR this year which would put

it at 30 times forward looking or 32

times which isn't outrageous because

Google probably has freeberg some

concept or alphabet rather some concept

of how they could increase the velocity

of

that of that Revenue yeah or that it

would be a defensive position one of

those two

yeah yeah I mean just to put it in

context right Google's Cloud revenue is

about 40 billion a year and Microsoft

and Amazon are both kind of plus or

minus a little bit around 100 billion a

year and so Google has kind of been as

we know lagging a little bit in the

cloud

Market the the thing about kind of

Enterprise

sales is there's a common strategy which

is you kind of land with a beach head

and then you kind of expand from there

with additional products and services

this is has been the reason so many

enterprise software companies over time

from Oracle to

Salesforce to Microsoft have been

acquisitive and can make Acquisitions

very synergistic what that means is you

can acquire a new product or a new

service and then sell it into your

install base or acquire the customers

and then cross- sell your existing

products or Services into their install

base and so you can increase the overall

Revenue by putting the two together and

combining sales teams and being able to

offer a combined offering and so the

theory here and I think this is

something I don't understand well enough

is that

security has become such a kind of top

requirement and and product category

that it now effectively enables a beach

head type model to be successful meaning

you can cross sell the security into all

of your existing customers or there's

enough new customers that Google might

be acquiring from The Whiz acquisition

that they can now bring new gcp services

to

and and cross sell into now to figure

out how this actually has to make sense

so Google's roic is about

30% that means that when they make an

investment a capex investment or capital

investment they expect to see about 30%

of incremental profit per year come back

at some point from that capital

investment the capital investment

they're making here again this doesn't

hit their income statement goes on their

balance sheet it gets marked mostly As

Goodwill so Google's going to have a 32

ion move from cash down to Goodwill so

now they've got this asset on their

balance sheet and they've got to make an

incremental $10 billion a year profit so

you kind of got to do the math $10

billion a year of incremental profit

against 40 billion of cloud revenue and

against 1 billion of whiz Revenue

there's a lot to be kind of built here

to make this make Financial sense so

then it becomes okay well that's a

really hard one to kind of think that

they're going to get there very soon but

remember Google's made some Investments

I think it's a very tricky you said it

earlier actually it's a trojan horse

into the other

clouds there you know the reason wiiz

exists and Jason mentioned this up front

is because of the value that it creates

in a multicloud multi-tenant environment

across aure in gcp and and AWS and when

the deal was done one of the things that

whiz said is hey don't worry we're not

going to prefer

gcp and it was interesting because I

thought wait people actually thought

that they would just prefer gcp no it's

the exact opposite of why Google would

want this because now what you have are

your tentacles like think of any other

service that any cloud provider provides

where most of your revenue is coming

from the other clouds can you name one

well it didn't exist until now and so I

think the Strategic rationale is quite

clever which is you start to gain

customer traction and workloads in all

of these other environments and I

suspect that TK is smart enough to try

to pull these workloads back into gcp

so that that's like I think probably

like because they were you're saying jat

they would have the data they would be

able to see from whiz like hey look of

90% of this this type of job is existing

on Oracle or it's over here on AWS or

all three of you would do that if you're

running Google CL Thomas C is smart

enough and they're not gonna pay and

David by the way the other thing that I

would say is I think this is where

bankers get this totally wrong as the

Observer watching a deal like this is

it's never about the rate of change when

you're trying to do a deal it's always

about the rate of change of the rate of

change and the most incredible thing

that whiz had going for itself was that

they were basically doubling in months

so the time to double at that scale you

can do any kind of Fantastical model

with that kind of raw input because when

that boundary condition is true and

you're trying to you know deescalate or

scale down or we down a model you're

still going to get crazy gargantuan

numbers that when you discount them back

gets to this price so I mean congrats to

these guys I don't you know I would love

to find out how does whiz because this

is I mean I'm sure you guys have this

question to how do you build a sales

infrastructure that can scale that

productively that quickly that's an

incredible thing you know yeah I wonder

if a lot of people are I wonder if it's

a lot of self- sered to sign up and use

it it's got to be yeah some percentage

of it I mean I'll tell you our

experiences we had a guy that had to

come in and sell it into us and we had a

little bit of a bake off and I don't

know maybe we were unique and there's a

simpler lower scale product that's just

more pgo consumption yeah yeah who knows

say looking at this I'm curious your

take on big VC because the uh series a$

hundred million round we don't have the

valuation for it the B was at 1.7

billion a year later so maybe we assume

it was a $500 million valuation for 20%

something like that I would guess maybe

a 600 million post Sequoia Insight index

cyber starts all did that series a when

you look the BC d and e those same

players all participated this is another

example of sometimes your best next

investment as a VC firm is the highest

growth outlier in your existing

portfolio your thoughts on what this

means in terms of venture capital and

maybe the Log Jam that we saw over the

last four years five years of no m&a and

because we you and I came up when like

it was a golden era of m&a and then you

know the IPO Market started open up with

Airbnb coinbase and of course Uber now

we're sitting here what could if this is

the starters pistol what could it look

like for the VC industry which has just

been dead yeah I'm start with you know

my thoughts on Whiz I think this is

really exciting for me because this is a

great example of a contrarian investment

when this investment was initially made

there was not a lot of money going into

security there still isn't it's an

underinvested category and with AI and

the threat of the types of things that

can people can build and Vibe coding and

everything in between you're going to

need better security and so I'm excited

to see that maybe this might become an

investable category I think this is the

largest exit ever in the security space

am I am I wrong I mean I think I I think

you're probably correct got to be I

don't think I've ever heard of anything

this large m&a wise absolutely yeah so

you know how does this impact m&a I mean

it's still pretty slow out there you

know some actions better than no action

but like Niantic was just bought by

scopely we're starting to see you were

an angel investor in that right that was

the Pokémon go folks I remember you

showing me Pokemon go over a decade ago

yeah that's amazing that's a Saudi

company that bought it look like a Saudi

conglomerate that's a Saudi conglomerate

and so that exited for 3.7 billion and

you know I I think we're going to start

seeing some movement especially with the

new Administration when we how long were

you in that uh deal how many years were

you in that deal oh my gosh as soon as

they spun out an alphabet uh formed and

spun them out as their own entity I

there's a funny story for another time

about how I got into the deal uh but I I

realized it was my only opportunity to

get in as early as possible and so I

stalked the founder and sat at his door

and oh tell us the story okay all right

well permission permission granted you

can't say it's a great story a great

story so before Pokemon go they had this

game called Ingress and I started

playing it with my friends and I started

noticing that my friends were doing some

really unusual things they were like

charting helicopters and like traveling

all over the world to cast these

invisible triangles over the Earth

basically it's a game of green versus

blue and who can cast the biggest

triangle I was like why are these people

spending so much time and not only that

but why are they going around taking

pictures of points of interest for

Google like what is Google actually

doing with this asset was my number one

question so I realized that Ingress was

part of a bigger mapping plan mean if

you look at the team you look at hanky

they all come from Keyhole and they're

obviously part of the maps team and help

build Google Earth so this wasn't just a

game Pokémon go was a joke it was

basically an April Fool's joke where the

founder of Pokemon said wouldn't it be

cool if like we put Pokemon on the map

and we just tried to find them and John

Hank's like uh yeah like let's turn this

into an engress likee game I went around

telling everybody like if I had a chance

to invest in anything it would be

Niantic and because they were part of

Google I thought there was no chance and

then I got a call one day and they said

hey my friend of mine was like did you

hear Niantic spun out I was like oh my

gosh I don't know anyone at Google how

do I reach John hanky and I realized I'd

invested in this company called hint

waterer and they were giving out game

codes on the bottle cap and uh I was

setting up her ticketing system one day

and helping her out in her office and I

saw all these tickets coming in with the

subject line that said engrish game code

and I was like what is this all about

and I just connected the dots and she

introduced me to John hanky and then I

went there with two Engineers cuz I

figured I got to show up with some value

here um two badass Engineers who are

players we sat on the front stairs and

basically sat there and said please take

our money he's like I don't need you

I've got Nintendo I've got Google I've

got and we're like no you really need us

uh and he gave one of those Engineers a

job offer pretty much that day he gave

me a key card to the office and so I can

come and go from Niantic as I please

which is pretty awesome aming conations

fun story you know yeah yeah no I mean

this is what ites to get in deals in

Silicon Valley all right the FED held

rate steady on Wednesday markets have

been digesting this uh pretty flat the

second consecutive meeting of course

where the FED held rates steady this is

after the two consecutive Cuts in

September 50 basis points uh in

September and then obviously 25 in

December and we had this high hopes that

there would be you know four or five of

these Cuts this year and there are

apparently none right now Trump posted

truth social that he urged the FED to

cut rates to create a smoother

transition for his tariffs the tariffs

are taking place I believe on April 2nd

is that date that's going to change the

history of the United States

forever and so uh there were some other

interesting takeaways they Lowered

Expectations on Ray Cuts uh they expect

two quarter point cuts for the rest of

2025 this would take us down to about 4%

your thoughts chath let's add some color

from Scott Besson one of the biggest

mistakes that I think Janet Yellen

affected was this continued issuance of

money on the short end of the curve to

finance these deficits which gives you

you inherit an incredibly difficult

challenge I think over the next nine

months I think there's like nine or 10

trillion that has to get refinanced do

you want to talk about that and yeah

look I I I thought that it that when

rates were low you're supposed to turn

out rates exactly and in instead

the the treasury for the past few years

has pulled rates in and I think part of

that was to keep rates

lower that they they change the issuance

schedule when rates move back up towards

5% I I um have maintained that policy

but I'm maintaining it because it's

going back to David's

question of when when are you going when

are we going to see the results from

this the getting the government spending

under control and I don't think the

markets recognize it yet okay translate

for Jamal yeah so he's saying a couple

things he he he has inherited a problem

that he hasn't quite yet changed what is

that problem that problem is that when

rates are low you want to borrow for as

long as possible right you don't want to

borrow for the shortest amount of time

and now that rates are high you're in

this difficult POS position where you

have to refinance all of it at a much

higher rate that's effectively the net

of

it what I took away and you can see more

and understand more when you watch his

old interview with freeberg and I but I

think that there's been a fundamental

disconnect and break from the fed and

the rest of Treasury and the government

and I think that Scott was very clear

like he views that as an independent

organization and it should continue that

way but it was very clear to me that

they are singing from their own hm book

and it just doesn't seem to me that

Powell really understands the gravity of

this situation and I don't think that

he's really willing to play ball so he's

probably on the margins again this is my

total interpretation of

this would rather wait longer than

necessary because I think it's it's

almost like a political Gambit and I

think that that's very dangerous that's

again just my own interpretation I just

do not think that Powell

a has the data to make a very clear

decision and B will act unless it's

totally necessary so I think this

there's an overcorrection here that's

happening which I think is dangerous and

I think it's going to slow down the pace

of cuts which I think will then create a

lot of other pressure in the economy

well Dave uh I'll jump it drop it to you

the fed's Mandate as an independent

organization is full employment and and

that 2% Target which we talked about

before here was just a number that was

picked by an economist in New Zealand of

all places it's it's not like it's some

specific dosage that is perfect but it

is their mandate they're not supposed to

be a political organization so what are

your thoughts on this situation and

these high rates which we have to pay

for our

debt we've never been in a situation

where in a 100 days a federal government

is setting out to cut their spending by

a trillion dollars which has a

significant effect a recessionary effect

on the economy because there's less

federal dollars flowing out which goes

as Revenue into various businesses and

income for a lot of people that are

employed as contractors or directly by

federal government

agencies coupled with for the first time

in 100 years a significant change in the

policy for

tariffs for goods flowing into the

United States and whether that will

reduce spending by consumers or drive up

the cost of products by consumers and we

talked extensively about both of these

issues with bessent and letnik in DC

this week and if I'm the FED I don't

really have a great proxy historically

for saying when this was done in the

past here's what the effect would be on

GDP here's what the effect would be on

inflation here's what the effect is

going to be on uh employment in fact

folks like lutnick are making the case

that the current measure of GDP is

probably not even correct the way we

measure it the way we count it and so

the traditional economist's point of

view on making rate adjustments as a

function

of economic contraction or growth may be

wrong so I think there are quite a lot

of these kind of confounding factors

that the FED is in a very wait and see

mode what I would look to is the bond

market which also seems to be in a kind

of wait and see mode so remember right

before the election the bond market

traded the tenure up so that rates went

down to about

3.65% about a month ago the tenure was

at 4.5% and today it's at

4.22% and so in the last month we've

seen rate on the 10year decline by about

a quarter point or about 30 basis points

and so the bond market is giving some

kind of opening to the FED saying look

we expect that this is going to be

deflationary this is going to be

recessionary we are expecting you to cut

rates to the fed and so that's what the

bond market is saying and now I think

we're going to start to wait for the

reports that are going to start to come

out that are going to show the impact I

don't think we're going to know

immediately so I think the first 100

days of this presidency and this

administration's

actions are going to be pretty telling

on what's going to happen going forward

in terms of the effect on employment on

inflation and on GDP contraction or

growth and then I think the market will

know how to handicap those numbers in

the future based on actions by the

administration right now we're still in

a like I don't know how when you put all

these things together what it does and

it's a lot happening real fast and so

wait and see

yeah Sayan I'm not sure if the fed and

you know the people in the

administration can't communicate the

strategy perfectly well and the FED

can't interpret it I don't know that

we're going to solve it here but any any

thoughts on this well I don't know if

they're not communicating it well

bessent did that it's the effect that it

will have ultimately on the economy and

over what time scale that's what's

uncertain right now sorry specifically

the tariffs I mean you know if they're

on they're off to what extent you know I

don't it doesn't feel like the ire

Administration is on the same page

that's just you know based on everybody

I've talked the FED is not part of the

administration of course not yes they're

independent quote today in the Wall

Street Journal Nick you can look for it

is Powell's statement basically blamed

Rising inflation in this short-term

period on exogenous factors he said our

job was getting the job done and now

there's exogenous inflation and I think

what he's pointing to are these

potential tariffs or something so I

think it's it's less that they're not

coordinated I think that they are on

very different pages and I don't think

the Fed wants to play ball sorry s and

then I have the story at the end just

quickly you know one of the things that

really concerns me is how we've been so

high on cheap supply for so long like if

you look at Shen and teimo before this

uh podcast I wouldn't looked up that

their prices are up by 27% or something

like that and so when you used to be

able to get a garment for $18 you're now

paying $37 and Zara is like 75 for an

equivalent and I think people really

liked getting packages in the mail and

feeling like their dollar went further

and it's not going far and so when you

have a bunch of people who can't buy

anything and consumerism is a big part

of our unfortunately in some ways our

culture you know what does that do to

our country you know if if you're

looking around there's Urban blight

everywhere in retail and you know we

can't fill our malls we don't have brick

and mortar stores they're shutting down

Forever 21 just shut down you know the

these are the types of things that you

know people really care about is whether

especially in a time where you know you

do have a recession uh people want to

buy a tube of lipstick or or a dress to

feel better about their life and right

now they can't even do that and so

that's that's what concerns me is

thinking about the retail future and

then you know the consumer landscape of

how this all affects

everybody yeah and consumer confidence

is not good right now people are feeling

like a little bit concerned about it and

this immigration plays into this we're

supposed to be deporting 20 million

people maybe it's only going to be a

million who knows about that ISS issue

who's going to actually work in these

factories are people getting laid off or

are they not getting laid off like

there's just a soup of issues here that

makes the fed's job extremely difficult

so in an extremely difficult confusing

storm what is the best thing to do when

you're driving the storm is just maybe

try to keep the car going straight not

hit the brakes or not hit the gas and

that's what they're doing they're taking

a wait and see and let's see if the

administration can be a little bit

crisper I think in their delivery of

what their plan is because it does seem

chaotic to me

and people here might disagree Jam you

said you had an anecdote well I I kind

of disagree with you in one way I I just

think the FED has totally lost a script

and I don't think they're I don't think

they're doing what they're supposed to

be doing what should they be doing what

they should be doing is actually

observing the fact that there's some

very complicated money flows the front

end of the curve makes no sense the back

end of the curve hasn't gone down long

enough they sat around and they allowed

treasury to basically pump trillions of

short-term paper so they were complicit

in what Yellen did and it it's

inconceivable that they didn't

understand that strategy and so it's

inconceivable so what's the future yeah

so what do you do when you have a is

recalcitrant the right word you know

like let's let's just say you just have

an organization that refuses to play

ball again there was a really

interesting anecdote where bessent

talked this is in the interview about

how he really wants to deregulate and

loosen up Bank lending standards

particular particularly at the community

level and I think that this is one very

interesting thing that is a workaround

to the FED why because if you think

about where money gets transacted on a

10 to 20 to 30e duration those are the

big boys they're making big Capital

plays right guys but where is like the

where's where do you play for the two

Monon to twoyear kind of thing it's

smaller stuff it's the stuff that's

required to get small businesses off the

ground it's the community lending