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Trade, tech and geopolitics: what you need to understand about China today

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Trade, tech and geopolitics: what you need to understand about China today

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963 segments

0:03

Welcome to Radio Davos and

0:06

>> I'm Ravi Valour with the Straits Times

0:08

and this [music] is the Straits Times

0:11

Asian Insider podcast.

0:13

>> It's great to be pres co-presenting with

0:15

you Ravi. Absolute delight. We've talked

0:17

about this literally for years.

0:18

>> Absolutely.

0:19

>> And uh so finally we get to do it. Yeah.

0:22

So Radio Davos for your listeners is the

0:24

weekly podcast from the World Economic

0:25

Forum which looks up lots of big issues

0:28

in the world with the emphasis on

0:30

potential solutions, ways of dealing

0:32

with those problems. What What's your

0:34

podcast about?

0:35

>> Well, it's about Asia generally and it's

0:38

a weekly podcast [music] and it rotates

0:40

between four of us and I do it on the

0:44

second Friday of every month.

0:46

>> Great. Well, and audiences will get the

0:49

best of both worlds. We have a fantastic

0:51

guest with us to talk about China and

0:54

China in the world. She's the founder

0:56

and chief executive officer of Wawa

0:59

Advisory. It's Tienlu.

1:02

>> Correct.

1:03

>> Very good. [laughter] Did I get the name

1:05

of your advisory company?

1:06

>> Absolutely. Yes. Thank you.

1:07

>> Tell us what what that is.

1:09

>> Wawa is a name um that I created. It

1:13

takes after the Swahili name of Wawa. So

1:16

takes the W outside the equation. So

1:18

it's USA WA which means balance and

1:21

equity. So I got the inspiration from

1:24

Masamara when I was there and I realized

1:26

look at nature you know nature has this

1:28

magical way of balancing different

1:31

species and how is it in the current

1:33

geopolitical world that we have is so

1:35

disrupted and uneven. So I felt that you

1:38

know the company that we have um the

1:41

mission is really to provide that

1:43

understanding and bridges to help the

1:46

business to navigate through this very

1:48

uncertain and uneven geopolitical world

1:50

especially in the age of China rising

1:53

and Swahili is great because that's

1:54

where humans originated from. So that's

1:57

how we got the name. The purpose is to

1:59

help business to navigate through this

2:02

uncertain and uneven geopolitical world.

2:04

You're the perfect guest for this

2:06

episode.

2:07

>> Absolutely, Robin.

2:09

>> She's absolutely perfect. And what a

2:11

name uh that that you given your

2:13

company. If you don't mind me telling

2:15

you a little bit of a story about the

2:16

African dung beetle. Uh [laughter]

2:19

>> would you be s would you like to know

2:21

that the African dung beetle navigates

2:25

at night using the Milky Way as its

2:28

guide point?

2:29

>> That's beautiful. That shows how related

2:31

man and not just man but beast and even

2:35

the smallest insect is with the

2:37

universe.

2:38

>> Yeah.

2:38

>> Wow. We've started very poetic and but

2:41

it's great to be talking about the

2:42

environment because I've not been

2:44

hearing enough about that.

2:46

>> Absolutely.

2:46

>> Um you know our relationship with nature

2:48

>> ecosystem really.

2:49

>> Great. Well hopefully we'll get on to

2:50

that a little bit. But first you

2:52

mentioned the the period of China

2:54

rising. Um we're speaking by the way uh

2:57

here at the World Economic Forums.

2:59

summer Davos in China in Dallion and

3:02

yeah it's China rising but there are

3:06

challenges to the Chinese economy aren't

3:07

there if I came to you and said can you

3:09

explain to me we know China's had an

3:12

economic miracle but where are things

3:13

right now what are the challenges what

3:15

would you tell me

3:16

>> yeah so uh I'd like to start by saying

3:19

that there are both challenges and great

3:20

opportunities at the Chinese economy but

3:22

when we look at the challenges um let me

3:25

frame it when we look at sort of the

3:26

typical way of looking at any economy

3:29

which is the three key pillars the

3:31

export and the import sector the private

3:34

consumption part and then there is the

3:35

investment part so when it comes to

3:38

export actually it's very important to

3:40

know that as much as the world is

3:42

talking about China you know over

3:44

capacity um sort of uh the rising trade

3:47

surplus like last year China's trade

3:49

surplus grew by 20% compared to the year

3:51

before right um so this is causing a lot

3:54

of discussions in the world but the

3:56

truth is export does not matter matters

3:58

to China as much as before. At the peak

4:01

of time about 20 years ago, 2007,

4:04

export was 35% of China's GDP and right

4:08

now is about only half of that. Last

4:12

year was 19 18% of it. And as much as we

4:16

talk about you know tariffs with the US

4:18

for instance, the trade to US is only a

4:23

tiny part of that. In in fact last year,

4:25

China's export to the US was less than

4:27

10%. And so that is less than 10% of

4:31

less than 50% of the peak. So when you

4:34

do the math, even if the entire China's

4:38

export to the US were to collapse, that

4:40

is only about 2% of China's GDP. So

4:43

export as important and much discussed

4:46

is not the most important part of the

4:47

Chinese economy. But there are of course

4:50

challenges. for instance, terrorist war

4:52

with the US, but I'm a lot more worried

4:54

about the upcoming uh trade war

4:56

potentially um with with Europe. So

5:00

that's one side and then the largest

5:03

part of the Chinese economy is private

5:05

consumption and that's worrying because

5:09

that's almost 40% of the GDP. So how how

5:12

this perform is fundamental um to

5:15

Chinese economy but there is a level of

5:18

lack of confidence to start with the uh

5:22

annual disposable growth rate is much

5:24

slower compared to before so last year

5:26

was 5% the same level of GDP not like 8%

5:30

or double digit growth right and on top

5:32

of that the unemployment rate is quite

5:35

high and the youth unemployment is

5:37

especially high um depending on you know

5:40

different surveys whether it's official

5:42

or some professors the highest number

5:44

I've seen for youth uh unemployment was

5:48

46% a couple of years ago and this is

5:50

enormous so imagine you're one of the

5:52

consumer

5:53

>> 46% 40% yes for youth right so kids

5:57

graduate from college they don't have a

5:59

job right so put yourself into their

6:02

shoes then

6:04

>> your annual income is not really growing

6:06

as much as before on top of that you

6:07

have a much higher chance of getting

6:09

unemployed of course you don't have the

6:10

confidence to spend and there's another

6:12

side of that which is the wealth um uh

6:15

impact. So property market is very

6:18

important to China and according to some

6:20

different surveys the absolute majority

6:23

of Chinese household own a house of some

6:25

sort. So more than 90% of Chinese

6:27

household own a house and 20% of them

6:30

own at least two houses or even more.

6:33

Now when the property prices start to

6:35

drop that means

6:38

all of a sudden I don't feel as rich as

6:40

before but when the price was going up

6:42

before every day even if I weren't doing

6:44

anything I was becoming richer of course

6:46

I had the confidence to spend but now I

6:48

don't so when you put all these three

6:50

together I'm not earning as much or

6:53

rapidly growth as before I have a higher

6:55

risk of getting unemployed and then I'm

6:58

not as rich as before obviously the

7:01

confidence to spend is much lower than

7:03

before. So that is really the biggest

7:06

challenge for the private consumption

7:07

part. And then finally is the investment

7:10

side whether it's infrastructure or

7:12

property market or just sort of overall

7:15

investment fiscal investment you know

7:17

all the companies investment we're also

7:19

seeing that um a level of uncertainty

7:22

whether is caused by the external world

7:25

or the lack of confident that is all

7:28

feeding into that sentiment and then on

7:31

top of that interesting there are times

7:33

I compare China with Silinkin Valley in

7:37

the sense that Silicon Valley is you

7:39

know the place that we have venture

7:41

capitals that we try a lot of different

7:44

project right and in China is the same

7:46

different provinces compete different

7:48

cities compete so it's like a giant

7:50

venture capital but the beauty of

7:52

venture capital is that you have so many

7:54

pipeline project at the same time and

7:57

also the spirit is you fail fast and

8:00

then you pivot fast and that was in in

8:03

an essence how China was like people

8:06

were encouraged to try different things.

8:08

It's fine if you make mistakes but then

8:10

you try something else but right now the

8:12

overall sentiment is not to make any

8:14

mistakes. And what is if if you change

8:17

that success or pivot fast um if you

8:20

change the KPI from that to make fewer

8:24

mistakes then what is the safe bet? The

8:27

safer bet is not to do anything. And

8:29

that to me is something that is a big

8:32

challenge that sentiment change in

8:34

China. So, um, yeah, that's where China

8:37

is.

8:38

>> Chen, you know, uh, in April 2020,

8:41

I wrote a column in the Straits Times,

8:44

and it's called the risks of putting all

8:46

your eggs in the China basket.

8:49

>> And one of the points I picked up in

8:51

that uh, column is the massive debt pile

8:56

of China Everrand.

8:58

And I said, look, this doesn't look

9:00

sustainable. And it reminds me of the

9:03

early days of the Asian financial crisis

9:05

and you know what happened to real

9:07

estate. But I've heard lately that a lot

9:11

of that poison has left the system. Is

9:16

there hope for a turnaround in Chinese

9:18

property uh in the near future? Is there

9:20

something that you see? I wouldn't

9:25

um put my money to bet on a high return

9:28

of Chinese property market in the longer

9:31

term, right?

9:31

>> There are certain positive factors that

9:34

will continue to drive the Chinese

9:36

property market, whether it's

9:37

urbanization rate, where is the growth

9:39

in people's incomes, da da da, but there

9:41

are also big factors to um drag this

9:45

down. for instance um whether the

9:47

current stocks in certain regions are

9:49

much higher compared to the actual

9:51

demand or we look at um you know the

9:54

major demographic shifts as such. So, so

9:57

property market would not be like sort

10:00

of the fast growing engine for Chinese

10:03

economy going forward.

10:03

>> Maybe pockets of it because I was

10:05

talking to a major Australian uh

10:09

property developer and they were talking

10:12

about going into the elder care uh

10:15

segment as a possible growth opportunity

10:18

in China. You know, building for the

10:20

elderly. Uh Robin,

10:22

>> just for anyone who's not following Asia

10:23

quite as closely as both of you, the

10:25

Ever Grand affair was this uh Chinese

10:28

property development company um that got

10:31

into a lot of trouble because of debt.

10:33

Um there was so much in in your initial

10:36

answer.

10:37

I don't know what to come back. The f

10:39

the first follow-up question I thought

10:41

of you said the impending trade war with

10:45

Europe.

10:46

I'm I'm often curious what is a trade

10:49

war? Because is there a trade war with

10:50

the the US at the moment? There

10:52

certainly there've been trade battles

10:54

maybe I don't know but why do you think

10:56

there's well apparently an inevitable

10:59

trade war with Europe?

11:01

>> I hope I'm wrong but um perhaps instead

11:04

of saying inevitable I would say the

11:07

very likely uh upcoming trade war with

11:10

Europe initiated by Europe. I just came

11:13

back from Europe and I'm more convinced

11:17

and worried than ever about that. So the

11:20

trade, we'll call it trade war, trade

11:22

frictions with the United States, you

11:25

know, between these two countries,

11:27

you're still seeing the the bans of rare

11:30

rare earth or high-end chips and all of

11:33

that. And you still see quite a level of

11:36

terrorists um on many uh products. So I

11:39

would still call that a trade war even

11:40

if it's no longer 145% right. Um but

11:44

with Europe is is different. US and

11:46

especially the Trump administration is

11:48

very quotequote practical about this. So

11:52

to President Trump is more a negotiation

11:54

is his art of the deal. So it's

11:56

everything is about to come up with a

11:58

number that he would be very happy about

12:00

and he can change it from the morning to

12:03

the evening but not so much about

12:05

Europe. The way I see it is that Europe

12:07

is slowly cooking that negative

12:10

sentiment about trade with China, about

12:13

trade um deficit with China, and that it

12:16

takes quite some time for Europe to

12:18

decide the actions, but once they do, it

12:21

will stick. And when they do that, China

12:25

will also retaliate. and China

12:30

cares more about the United States um

12:33

than any other countries unfortunately

12:35

in this case and so China would

12:37

retaliate

12:39

and then chances are Europe would add on

12:42

top of that and the narratives are just

12:44

changing before it was just about trade

12:46

and now it's changing into people are

12:49

getting unemployed because of China

12:51

there's part of me almost

12:53

hating to repeat this at the podcast

12:55

because it only reinforced versus that,

12:57

you know. So there there there there's

12:59

there two me at the moment. There's the

13:01

me that is the economist me advising the

13:04

world the risks are coming. There's the

13:05

other me as a human and we know that

13:08

psychologically the more we repeat

13:10

something the chances are it'll happen

13:12

or the more you're scared about

13:13

something chances are it it will happen

13:16

and this is where I'm worried about.

13:18

>> So I had aligned at the economist about

13:20

how China look at the Europe. People

13:22

both love it and hate it. People love it

13:24

because they believe it's so true. They

13:26

hate it because it's so brutal. And I

13:28

used to study and live in Europe. So

13:30

there's part of me almost don't want to

13:32

say it. But the line was that Europe is

13:36

being seen as an aging concubine

13:39

>> um that has not accepted the fact

13:42

>> that it's been ditched by the American

13:45

emperor. So as someone who studied and

13:48

lived there, Europe is like my second

13:50

home. It pens me to say that. Um and I

13:53

certainly do not hope that we will see

13:55

that

13:56

>> uh trade war between Europe and China.

13:59

>> Is it [laughter]

14:01

>> is it so like like any war like a hot

14:05

war

14:07

you can see a buildup of arms and then

14:11

someone goes over the top and the war

14:13

actually starts. Do you know when it's

14:15

going to happen and do you know what

14:16

will be the first battle? Is it going to

14:18

be about a certain product or product

14:21

lines and is is this going to happen in

14:24

the next six months in the next two

14:25

years?

14:26

>> Technically it already happened. I mean

14:29

Europe imposed certain tariffs and

14:32

barriers on for instance Chinese EV cars

14:34

and China as retaliation also took on

14:37

certain things such as um agriculture

14:39

and also um cognac for instance and it

14:42

was when you look at this is so

14:44

interesting because EV is less than 1%

14:46

of the trade between Europe and China

14:49

less than 1% but is becoming the

14:51

dominant talk about the Chinese trade

14:53

with Europe right so China's retaliation

14:55

is almost like so perfectly engineered

14:57

to go against that versus one of that

14:59

was cognac because cognac it has to be

15:03

cognac from the region of cognac in

15:05

France which is so typically European

15:07

and is also less than 1% of the total

15:10

trade between Europe and Europe and

15:12

China. So China has engineered this

15:14

beautifully. So technically it's already

15:16

happened but more are being discussed as

15:19

we speak. So later this year I think

15:21

there's a very high likelihood that

15:23

we're going to see more actions from uh

15:25

Brussels.

15:26

>> Right. Sure. And I know the Chinese too

15:28

love their cognac, but have they tried

15:30

armanyak as a substitute?

15:33

>> Uh I'm not an expert on alcohol, so I I

15:36

I can't different region.

15:39

>> Maybe the almanac.

15:40

>> I like bubble tea better. [laughter]

15:42

>> Maybe the Armenyak producers should be

15:44

lobbying Beijing for the cognac,

15:47

>> right? Uh [laughter] can I just ask uh

15:49

ask ask you a question because you

15:51

talked about trade and uh how Chinese uh

15:55

trade as a uh as a factor of the Chinese

15:59

GDP has actually come down

16:00

significantly.

16:01

>> Yes.

16:02

>> Uh but you know we in Southeast Asia we

16:05

are very sensitive to uh China's

16:08

economy. We want the Chinese economy to

16:11

do well because it helps us as well, you

16:13

know, but one of the issues we're having

16:16

is that look, you did mention that trade

16:20

as a percentage of GDP has come down,

16:22

but we're talking about a much bigger as

16:25

percentage

16:26

>> uh as as a percentage of GDP has come

16:28

down, but we're talking about a much

16:30

bigger Chinese economy. Now this

16:33

morning, Premier Lee Chang said, "Please

16:37

don't talk about the second China

16:39

shock." Uh, you know, I think he said

16:41

that in his speech, but the fact is that

16:45

China has got so good at manufacturing.

16:50

uh and maybe you don't have much of a

16:53

option because as you said investment is

16:55

slowing, consumption is uh you know for

16:58

whatever reason is taking a a breather

17:02

but the the Chinese export push

17:06

especially after the US markets became a

17:09

little constrained into Southeast Asia

17:11

is causing a lot of grief in Southeast

17:13

Asia. In Indonesia, we have had

17:17

significant losses in the uh textile

17:20

industry and the Chinese are actually

17:23

selling but shirts to Indonesia.

17:26

In Malaysia, the furniture industry is

17:28

in crisis because the Chinese exports

17:31

are so good. Furniture exports. Thai

17:33

auto industry is in trouble. Is there

17:37

something? Because we remember China

17:39

when we signed the ASEAN China FDA.

17:43

China gave us an early harvest and which

17:45

helped all the ASEAN economies. But

17:48

today because of your own domestic

17:50

constraints are you compelled to keep

17:52

pushing the exports

17:55

out into the world including in Europe

17:56

you know to come back to where you

17:58

started is that a factor that you know I

18:01

mean you do need to find jobs for the

18:04

people 45% youth unemployment is a

18:07

frightening number you know the last I

18:08

heard that number was in the Indian

18:10

context I thought China was much lower

18:13

than that 28% but what you said

18:15

certainly surprised What do you think?

18:18

What do you think China can do so that

18:20

it doesn't

18:23

kill the goose uh uh uh you know of

18:26

consumption in the surrounding economies

18:28

that are so critical to it?

18:30

>> Yeah, that's a really good question and

18:33

um there are few foes that we can look

18:36

at this and to start with when I say you

18:39

know export doesn't matter to China that

18:41

much I meant from the Chinese economy

18:43

perspective as the question went. Um but

18:45

I certainly understand the level of sort

18:47

of

18:48

>> concern the rest of the world would have

18:50

and even say that 5% of of GDP growth

18:54

that China enjoys every year um that is

18:58

every year China produces a new country

19:01

that is the size of Switzerland

19:04

>> or Saudi Arabia.

19:06

>> So that is enormous and last year trade

19:09

surplus was 1.2 trillion. that is um

19:13

absolutely enormous. So I understand

19:15

this but perhaps let me try to reframe

19:19

it and also how in a way China looks at

19:22

this and then we can talk about how

19:24

China decide to make this more

19:27

sustainable. I have analogy

19:30

um that when we think about Chinese

19:33

manufacturing think about China is a

19:36

shop that sells ice creams. Okay.

19:39

Imagine vanilla ice creams. And as you

19:41

said, China feels like is so good. Let

19:45

me try to do the President Trump way. Is

19:47

so good.

19:48

>> Oh, there you go.

19:49

>> And so cheap. [snorts] And that you buy

19:51

so much out of China and you get fat.

19:55

And then you complain it to China. And

19:57

you say it's China's fault that you're

19:59

becoming so fat. And China's like, "Wait

20:01

a second. You have every right not to

20:03

buy us. You buy it not because we force

20:06

it on you, but because we're so good and

20:08

so cheap. So who is the one to blame

20:11

here?

20:12

So when we talk about trade surpluses,

20:15

deficits, there's part of China feels a

20:17

bit vulnerable in the sense that we

20:20

would love to buy more from you, but

20:21

what do you have to sell it to us?

20:25

I'm looking at certain interviewees

20:28

about your

20:29

>> but but we're back with trade wars that

20:31

so governments could say okay it is

20:34

great goods from China but we're getting

20:37

fat to use your analogy we'll put up

20:39

we'll put up trade barriers isn't that

20:41

the inevitable

20:42

>> and some people might say that yes and

20:44

no we need get to get more time to be as

20:46

fit as you are uh

20:48

>> that would be a healthier way so

20:50

protections are for the weak rather than

20:53

say, um, I'm going to not buy your ice

20:57

creams. You can also say, I'm going to

21:00

produce better ice creams that are

21:02

tastier and cheaper. So, that would be

21:05

the other way around. As always, as

21:07

trained economists, as sensible as we

21:09

are, we know that tariffs are bad. Um,

21:12

protections are for the weak. So, that's

21:13

something I want to argue. But then to

21:16

um to go back to your question about how

21:17

sustainable this is in fact China itself

21:21

realizes that this is not sustainable

21:23

and there are different China like so

21:25

when we talk about you China what is

21:27

that you is it the government is it the

21:29

business is it the Chinese people the

21:31

answers are completely different on this

21:33

for all of these all of the above

21:35

whether the government or the business

21:36

or the Chinese people we know that it's

21:38

not sustainable for instance when you

21:40

look at the much younger people um

21:43

there's this phenomena called lying flat

21:44

that

21:46

>> they ting um that the younger uh that

21:50

the young generation believe that it's

21:52

much more important to be happy rather

21:54

than work hard and make money. But I'm

21:56

from the generation where when I grow up

21:58

we had very little food. I couldn't have

22:00

like meat in my dumplings only at

22:02

Chinese New Year, right? So it's a

22:05

completely different kind of mentality.

22:07

So when you are a lot more well off then

22:11

you don't bother to work as hard

22:14

anymore. That is part of the reason why

22:17

this is not going to be sustainable

22:18

because the younger generation will be

22:20

different. And then on top of it is that

22:22

the business realized that this is not

22:24

sustainable. Um when we visit some of

22:27

the Chinese companies in different um

22:29

you know cities and regions we see that

22:32

uh right after co they were extra

22:34

working hard even if they were losing

22:37

money and I asked them why is that

22:39

because there are two different concepts

22:41

of cost there is the average and fixed

22:44

cost there is the marginal cost. So if

22:47

they have invested all this machinery

22:48

and everything even if the marginal cost

22:52

so long the money they make is higher

22:55

than the marginal cost they are happy to

22:57

continue to do that. The the simple

23:00

answer they said to me is I know I'm

23:02

losing money but if I don't I would lose

23:04

out even more money. So that's why they

23:06

were doing it. But already, especially

23:08

since last year, we're seeing that this

23:11

so-called involution nan the like extra

23:14

competitiveness among Chinese companies

23:17

themselves are starting to change. So

23:19

the business realized themselves that

23:21

this is not sustainable.

23:22

>> So they're changing that organically

23:25

without the interference with the

23:27

government or with people or from the

23:29

rest of the world. And Chinese

23:31

government also realizes this. I mean

23:33

that's why as you said you know the

23:34

prime minister mentioned that that the

23:37

China shock is the wrong way to put it

23:39

that the China opportunity is really the

23:41

right way to put it the government has

23:43

all this pressure from Europe from you

23:45

know Latin America etc they want China

23:48

to buy more to reduce that trade deficit

23:51

and China will look to do that and for

23:53

instance one of that would be service

23:55

account right because typically when we

23:57

talk about trade surplus we just think

23:58

about goods uh per se but um depending

24:02

how you want to play around the numbers

24:04

for the argument if anything the service

24:07

account uh trade deficit that China runs

24:10

it almost increased by seven times in

24:12

the last 5 years time. So it depends how

24:14

um we frame this.

24:15

>> I just wanted to mention the straight of

24:16

horm's effect um on China. I' interested

24:20

to hear Ravi as well the impact that's

24:23

had in Southeast Asia where where you're

24:24

based. [snorts] What impact has it had

24:28

on China? because I've spoken to several

24:29

Chinese people who've said actually

24:32

we've been pretty insulated from it

24:34

because of electrification

24:37

of our cars and the fact we're producing

24:38

so much renewable energy here. How do

24:41

you see it and do you think there's it's

24:44

a game changer? Will it change anything

24:45

in terms of the bigger picture on

24:49

anything in China?

24:50

>> Economically it hasn't impacted China

24:52

that much. um is more on the political

24:56

and geopolitical front. Less than 50% of

24:59

China's import of oil go through the

25:01

strait whether is import from Iran,

25:04

Iraq, Saudi etc. So um that is quite a

25:08

bit of share but on the other hand oil

25:11

is only about 6% or 7% of ch total China

25:15

energy use. So the impact that has

25:17

brought directly on China is much less

25:19

compared to for instance Europe, right?

25:21

And then on top of that, China has an

25:23

oil storage about seven months or so. So

25:25

this really like if you ask citizens on

25:28

the street, ask a random person, they

25:31

they feel a bit not so much. But more

25:34

importantly is the idea that this is

25:38

changing and giving the world a

25:40

different perspective of the current

25:43

Trump administration and how is really

25:46

disrupting and shaking people's faith

25:49

and uh in the US leadership of the world

25:53

and that China is watching it more um

25:55

enthusiastically. Since you spoke about

25:58

US leadership, how much of a watershed

26:01

has this year 2026 been in global

26:07

affairs? You saw a a very uh I don't

26:11

want to say timid, but a very

26:13

respectful, polite

26:15

Donald Trump show up in Beijing. How

26:18

much has the world changed for China in

26:21

this year? So from the US geopolitical

26:25

perspective um yes so much has changed.

26:27

I mean you know we start the year by

26:29

seeing um US taking um President Maduro

26:34

from Venezuela and then you know uh

26:37

President Trump keep on insisting and be

26:40

even more assertive on Greenland for

26:42

instance right and then we had Iran um

26:45

and then we had President Trump visiting

26:48

um China. So to China somewhat this year

26:52

was more about watching US destroying

26:56

itself and its allies globally. You're

26:59

absolutely right that President Trump u

27:02

visited China and he called presidenc a

27:06

great leader incredible China and all of

27:08

that but China is not naive in the sense

27:12

that it believes this will be how the

27:16

bilateral relationship going forward. Um

27:19

the very reason why President Trump

27:22

turned um it stand and style with China

27:26

is because China showed the rare earth

27:28

card and President Trump is someone that

27:31

believes in the games of power

27:34

>> and China showed his hand and that was

27:36

very critical. So the fact that the two

27:39

countries are um smiling at each other

27:42

and shaking hands certainly do not mean

27:45

that this will be the

27:49

great relationship, you know, romantic

27:51

honeymoon going forward. But at least

27:54

before the midterm, um the bilateral

27:56

relationship would be very stable,

27:58

>> right?

27:59

>> And depending on how the midterm goes,

28:02

um President Trump may adopt a different

28:04

strategy on China or maybe not. So for

28:06

instance um Russia, Ukraine, Israel,

28:09

Palestine, Iran, all of these is

28:12

distracting um the US um from its

28:14

priority on China. It's just got its

28:17

hands so full at the moment. It's got no

28:19

attention or ability really in a way at

28:22

least trade- wise to take um on China.

28:25

But that is just trade for instance. The

28:27

bilateral relationship goes so much more

28:30

beyond just trade. There's technology

28:33

rivalry, there's um military security

28:36

rivalry and there is financial rivalry.

28:38

So I believe the ongoing frictions

28:41

between US China will be one of the key

28:44

defining themes in the world.

28:46

>> So it's not ended. The story that story

28:48

is not ended.

28:49

>> Oh no, this is just the beginning of the

28:51

>> just the beginning. And do you think in

28:53

about 5 years from now when

28:56

the Americans fix their vulnerability on

29:00

rare earths that fear of China will

29:03

certainly go away?

29:04

>> To start with there is no way that US

29:06

will be able to catch up with China's uh

29:09

level of dominance on rare earth.

29:11

>> Is that so? um in 5 years in 5 years

29:13

because you talk about 5 years when we

29:15

talk about the dominance in rare earth

29:17

there is the access to the resources

29:19

itself and there is also the capacity to

29:21

produce and process them so China has

29:23

the absolute dominant power on both side

29:26

right so US will not be able to replace

29:29

China for at least another

29:32

>> and Europe everywhere yeah so so that's

29:34

why people are concerned about you know

29:37

interdependence of supply chains and all

29:39

of that But on rare earth, can I just

29:43

say it's actually very important to know

29:45

that China didn't want to play the rare

29:47

earth card. So, you know, Europe is

29:49

quite concerned about China continue to

29:52

use this. Let me emphasize again that

29:54

China does China did not want to play

29:57

the rare earth card. If it wanted to, it

30:00

would have played this long time ago. In

30:01

fact, it's almost a public knowledge.

30:05

Everybody knows about it. So the

30:06

question should really be people know

30:08

that China has access and dominance of

30:11

this. Why did they not think China can

30:13

do? Because China never played this car.

30:15

Um chairman Don Xiaoing said decades ago

30:18

that the Middle East has oil and China

30:20

has rare earth. This is no secret. China

30:22

could have played this. China could have

30:24

played this 40 years ago. China could

30:26

have played this in the first Trump

30:28

administration. It did not. China could

30:31

have played immediately immediately on

30:34

liberation day. China did not. China

30:36

played the rare earth card when the back

30:40

and forth of the tariffs war

30:43

negotiations between the two country

30:45

were just dragging on and on and back

30:48

and forth and almost with higher than

30:52

expected or wouldliked

30:55

kind of risks. That was when China

30:59

decided enough is enough like no is no.

31:02

That is when China played the card.

31:04

China never wanted to because look at

31:06

this one of the consequences Europe and

31:08

many other regions got scared and say

31:10

we're worried that China might want to

31:12

play it on China does not if anything

31:14

China is still as prime minister uh

31:17

Liang called this morning China still

31:20

wants a very stable global economy and

31:22

China is still very committed and wants

31:25

a good globalization and economic

31:27

globalization because China benefits

31:29

from that so China doesn't want any

31:31

trade wars whatsoever

31:32

>> right do you

31:33

China has a similar dominance in active

31:37

pharmaceutical

31:38

ingredients APIs as they have in rare.

31:42

>> I'm not an expert on that specific

31:44

industries. Um

31:46

but my limited knowledge is that is not

31:50

um but is certainly getting more power

31:53

than before. I mean one of my favorite

31:55

example is that um we we have the

31:57

there's this Chinese company who the

31:59

founder was uh I forgot Harvard or MIT

32:03

educated so she set up the company in

32:05

Boston a brilliant hub for biio medicine

32:09

related but especially during co time so

32:11

she came back and over time she took the

32:14

team back with her so now their

32:16

headquarters in China with all the R&D

32:18

centers in China and only the sales and

32:20

marketing teams in the US because they

32:22

know the language which they know how to

32:24

sell. And this is a great example of

32:26

telling us cuz when people think about

32:28

Chinese manufacturers, a few years ago

32:30

it was about EV and then it was AI,

32:33

deepseek and now we're looking at

32:36

robotics. The next is very likely to be

32:38

biotech.

32:39

>> I did want to ask you about um the

32:42

gender gap. The World Economic Forum

32:44

produces every year the uh global gender

32:46

gap report. I know it's something you've

32:48

taken a great interest in. You mentioned

32:50

your book on the subject has become so

32:52

successful. what's happened to it?

32:54

>> Yes. So, I wrote a book on gender

32:55

economics in Mandarin at the moment. Um,

32:58

it got so popular that there are pirated

33:00

copies now,

33:01

>> right? People are clamoring for it

33:03

>> because the rise of female power is, you

33:05

know, I talk about the rise of China is

33:07

one of the key defining themes of the

33:08

century and the rise of female powers is

33:10

another one.

33:11

>> How do you tell companies or governments

33:15

that it's in their interest to address

33:16

the gender gap?

33:18

>> Well, because it's good for the women

33:19

and the men and the children and the

33:21

economy. So let me take one example. So

33:24

there's studies looking at the world in

33:27

the past 46 years and basically if you

33:30

put a dollar on investment on the US

33:32

bonds and stock market your annual

33:34

return was 2.4%.

33:37

But if you invest that in people's

33:39

education every additional year of uh

33:43

education the average return is about

33:46

8.8%. That means investing into human

33:49

capital gives you a lot higher yield

33:51

than financial capital. And within this

33:53

8.8% the returns to women education is

33:56

10%. Which means that it's guaranteed

33:58

that when you invest more in women, the

34:00

women make more. On top of that, there's

34:02

a study in the US showing that when the

34:05

wife's education grows by an additional

34:07

year, the husband makes an additional

34:10

somewhere between 18% to 23%. So that's

34:13

great for the men as well. And on top of

34:15

that, we see that when the women are

34:17

better educated, the kids are taller, um

34:20

they're healthier, they have better

34:22

performance at school. So that's good

34:24

for um the next generation as well. And

34:26

then on top of that, it's actually very

34:28

good for the economic growth. So for

34:30

instance, according to UN women um they

34:32

have um a finding suggesting that when

34:34

we invest more in women, that can

34:36

significantly increase the global GDP by

34:40

about 4 trillion US dollars by 2030. And

34:42

that is more than 3% of the current GDP

34:45

that we have. So that's why I say

34:47

educating the women is great for

34:48

everybody. For women, for the men, for

34:51

the kids, and for the society and the

34:53

economy.

34:53

>> Right. But Chun, you were born in

34:55

Shanong, right?

34:57

>> Yes.

34:57

>> And that is known to be a fairly

35:00

traditional Chinese society in Shanong

35:03

if I'm not mistaken. Did you get lucky?

35:05

Where did you get your fantastic

35:07

education in Europe?

35:09

>> How did you manage to do it? Were your

35:10

parents uh far-sighted or uh they just

35:14

wanted you to have the best?

35:15

>> Um yes. So I was born in Tinga in

35:19

Shandong where Confucious came from.

35:22

It's very traditional. So even nowadays

35:25

in certain part of Shandong um women are

35:28

not allowed to dine at the same table

35:31

with men and that whenever we go out

35:33

you're supposed to give men the face,

35:35

let them talk more. Let them take the

35:36

lead. you know, you smile and collapse

35:38

when they do the talk. Um, so that was

35:41

one side of me. And then I had the

35:44

opportunity to study in Sweden, um, one

35:47

of the most gender equal country in the

35:49

world, and also at UC Berkeley, the most

35:52

sort of progressive, um, university. So

35:55

I got very lucky in that I saw that

35:58

gender equality can be very different

36:00

and that they are possible. So one of my

36:03

PhD thesis well the majority of them

36:05

were about labor economics even though

36:07

later I dived into you know

36:09

macroeconomics uh geopolitical economics

36:13

d one of my PhD thesis was about labor

36:16

economics human capital D and one of

36:19

that was to study is it true that when

36:22

women are better educated we have a

36:24

lower marriage rate

36:27

>> because back then um there was a saying

36:30

in China that there are three kinds of

36:32

people in the world. A man and a woman

36:34

and a woman who has a PhD and I was

36:37

getting my PhD and there were another

36:40

saying that there are four kinds of

36:42

people in the world. A man, a woman, a

36:44

woman who has a PhD and a man who dares

36:47

to marry the third type. So I wanted to

36:49

prove them wrong. So that's how like

36:51

gradually over time apart from my

36:54

day-to-day work on geopolitics

36:58

um advising the world on China and

37:00

Chinese companies going overseas um I've

37:03

spent the past uh more than a decade

37:05

writing along the topic of gender

37:08

economics and I'm very lucky because my

37:10

parents believe in the power of

37:12

education and they um let me took my

37:15

PhD. Do you think there might be a

37:18

future book from you

37:20

called a man's place is in the home?

37:24

>> Um I like the idea but um I want to

37:29

rephrase it to a man's place is wherever

37:31

he wishes because when we talk about

37:34

gender equality the idea is not to sort

37:37

of let women become the more senior um

37:42

species in gender than men. We want

37:44

equality and the idea of equality is not

37:47

that women should work and men should

37:49

stay home but um women can work um if

37:55

she chooses so and man can stay at home

37:58

if he chooses so. So

38:01

ultimately I believe the definition of

38:05

gender equality is not about the same

38:09

results but that we have the same access

38:12

and same opportunity. So men can cry,

38:15

men can wear pink. Um however you know

38:17

you can play Barbie dolls. Um we can

38:20

also become super men's as well.

38:22

>> I'm wearing pink. Did you see that? Did

38:24

[laughter] you see her? I'm still blue.

38:26

I think I change to pink one of these

38:27

days. Lovely. Thank you very much.

38:29

>> And I did not mean as a object

38:31

objectifying you.

38:32

>> At least I've not cried during this

38:34

interview. We have to bring it to a

38:35

close there. That's all we've got time

38:36

for. Ravi, it's been great to co-host

38:39

this with you. If your listeners, if

38:43

your audience want to follow Radio

38:44

Davos, they can find us on any podcast

38:46

app. They can also go to web.chodcast

38:50

or you'll find we have three weekly

38:52

podcasts. This one, Radio Davos, meet

38:53

the leader and agenda dialogues. [music]

38:56

Ravi, where can we find you? Robin,

38:58

that's been a fantastic conversation and

38:59

thank you Chen for a brilliant uh

39:02

presentation. We didn't talk enough of

39:05

concubines yet, but maybe we'll keep

39:07

that for the next uh session. This is

39:09

Ravi Velour for the Straits Times Asian

39:12

Insider podcast.

39:14

>> That a [music] great pleasure. Thank you

39:16

for having me today.

39:16

>> Thank you.

Interactive Summary

In this episode of Radio Davos, the hosts welcome Tienlu, founder of Wawa Advisory, to discuss the current state of the Chinese economy, the dynamics of China's geopolitical relations with the US and Europe, and the importance of gender equality. The conversation covers China's economic shift from export-led growth to domestic consumption, the challenges posed by youth unemployment, the property sector, and the role of innovation. Tienlu also shares her insights on the economic benefits of educating women and the importance of achieving true gender equality.

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