I was down big. Then I did THIS...
647 segments
By 10:00 in the morning, I was down more
than I wanted to be and our desk was
down something like a million bucks. But
the same stock, the same day, we
finished up big. And the only thing that
changed between the part of the day when
being down and finishing the day strong
was one single thing. I'm going to walk
you through every decision I made today
on SPCX. the mistake I made in the
morning, exactly how I reset, and the
moment in the afternoon where I where we
finally hammered it because
understanding why three trades we are
about to cover in real detail are
completely different. That's the
difference between a trader who
compounds losses and one who compounds
gains. Let's go.
So this is SPCX SpaceX the morning of
June 16th, right? Pre-market stock was
quiet. It had gapped up. Nothing really
special, but it had gapped up and it was
the third day up, right? It had sold off
a little bit. traders were kind of
calling for a top because of the
pre-market selloff and they thought
maybe first day of options the open was
going to be the high here. We're going
to open and just sell off, right? It
opened right around 200. Then right at
9:30,
it opened and and the first move was up,
right? And that's when the trade kind of
got amusing and not in a good way, but
it did. A trader called out, "It's
stuffed. Get short. Hammer this thing."
Great. It's a short. Let's put the
hammer on the chart right at the highs,
right? It's going to go lower. We can
get risk on in this trade. Let's hammer
this thing. And traders, I did too. Put
risk on. But the response wasn't really
right. The hammer didn't work. Now, this
is something that happens. You take a
trade and it doesn't work. You take your
stop, right? But traders were so focused
on the idea and they were so afraid to
miss the short, they didn't see that
obvious mini hitchhiker trade setting
up. I mean, that was a rip, right? It
was a frustrating rip. And from there,
for a little bit, it didn't get better
as the stock started grinding higher.
The thing just kept going. There wasn't
really a pullback, but then it did start
to consolidate just below 220. And I was
watching this happen in real time. And
everything in me was saying this is too
extended on the higher time frame. This
has to stop. This has to be close to the
top. So I shorted it and we shorted it
with size. Let's be very clear about
what I did wrong here. What we did wrong
here because this is the exact mistake I
see developing traders make every single
day. I wasn't reacting to the market. I
wasn't reacting to the price action. I
was predicting it. There's a massive
difference between those two things. And
in the moment when you're watching a
stock rip and your instincts are
screaming at you, that difference is is
really easy to blur. At SMB, we grade
every setup, every trade before we trade
it. And the grade isn't based on how you
feel. It's based on what the market's
actually telling you. So, let's grade
this opportunity right now. Uh trend
direction. Well, the trend was up. It
was hard up. I'm trying to short in an
uptrend. Was Was there confirmation? No.
None. The stock hasn't shown any signs
of topping. There's no failed breakout,
no reversal candle. There wasn't volume
drying up. There was nothing. Catalyst?
No. There was no real news. This is a
momentum move. It could run for another
hour if it wanted to. The riskreward, I
mean, I was shorting against momentum
with no defined level to get short
against. My stop was honestly a little
too ambiguous. my target was was based
on hope that this was going to reverse.
If we take those input variables, that's
maybe at best a C trade, but it's more
likely a D trade. And here's the rule at
SMB. C setups get C size, D setups get
no size, and they don't get taken at
all. I broke that rule.
I sized up. traders on our desk sized up
because we were convinced because the
move on the higher time frame looks so
obvious that it just had to fail because
there was a seller at 220, right? That's
it's going to fail there.
A couple hundred,000 maybe a million is
what it costs our desk when we guess
when we are thinking we might be right
on the direction but we're actually off
on the timing. The hardest part wasn't
the loss.
It was knowing in the moment when I was
down 10% of a stop, then 20, then 30,
knowing that I'd made the wrong trade
and I was still fighting because I
wanted to be right. That's the other
mistake in inside the mistake, and we'll
come back to it. But first, what do you
do when you're down a bunch of money on
a trade you shouldn't have taken? So
most traders after a loss like that,
they do one of two things. They either
walk away. They just get up and and walk
away. They shut it down. They're just
too frustrated to think straight and
they need to get all this clarity right.
Or they revenge trade. They double their
size in the next setup because they need
to get it back right now. And they can
quickly turn a $1,000 loss into a $2,000
loss. for our desk. That's how we turn a
million dollar loss into a two or $2.5
million loss. It's honestly exactly the
same process. It's just done at scale.
So, we have to be really careful here
because I've done both those things.
I've walked away out of frustration with
myself and I've revenge traded trying to
get it back right away. We all know
exactly how each one ends when the
pressure gets amped up so much that it
almost feels like it forces you to act.
You can physically feel your body
getting tight, your mind almost
certainly driving right into fight or
flight mode. So, we have to put a system
in to interrupt that negative feedback
loop because I don't like the outcomes
of those two choices that I could make.
Right after I got blown out of that
short, I I stepped back. I mean,
physically, I took my hands off the
keys, took a breath, and I looked at the
chart again. I went through this simple
skill. It's called a 120, which we're
going to detail in just a minute. It
just takes three steps. It's 120
seconds. But after that, I did and we
all kind of looked at the chart again,
like the desk hadn't just drawn down a
million dollars on it, right? We looked
at it like it was a new stock and and we
were seeing it completely fresh. And
when we did that, when I did that,
something changed. All right, look at
this area right here.
SpaceX had driven to 225 and now it was
trying to push higher and it it just
can't. Right? Getting clarity after
using that 120. We started to think,
okay, I'm looking for a bearish rubber
band scalp to start, right? The buyers
are maybe exhausted here. This is a
totally different trade from what I
traded in the morning. In the morning, I
was trying to predict a top. Now, the
market actually might be showing me one.
So, I went into the next step of this
process or another step. We're going to
go through all the steps later, but I
graded the setup using our simple asset
protocol and and this time it came back
a B. Not an A, but a B. There was still
uncertainty. The stock hadn't fully
confirmed the rollover. I mean, it
definitely could squeeze back to high.
So, I sized it for a B, which at my
level means with 50% of what I'd
normally trade on an A setup or an A
opportunity, right? I've got a defined
stop above the recent high and I'm
waiting for confirmation before I add
if the stock offers it. It doesn't have
to offer it, but I'm waiting for that
confirmation.
Using the asset protocol allocation was
B- risk. Stop was 2 cents above the high
a day. It was 225, I think 66, right?
The entry was the first move below that
prior bar low, right? or that prior two
bar low. So it was right around
22163ish,
right? Our target was VWAP 212.
Now this is the discipline that most
people don't talk about. It's not
exciting. There's no big moment here.
It's just grade it, size it, execute it.
Right? This trade started to work,
right? It started to roll over
magnetically making its way to VWOP. We
were getting a little more confirmation
as the stock tried to pop and then kept
giving us lower highs and lower lows,
but I never had an opportunity to really
add. This was just a straightup rubber
band, right? The trade gave me B- risk
and it didn't give me a super obvious
place to add. It didn't show a super
clean backside or even a great version
of a fashionably late. So, it was a
trade to exit as it pulled into the
targets.
By the time the position was closed, I
was back to flat, maybe even a little
bit up and so was the desk. As a desk,
we're talking about maybe being up a few
hundred grand. Nothing crazy, but up.
Right now, here's what I want you to
understand about that number. Our
traders,
I didn't try to make back that draw down
in a single trade. I mean, I I didn't
need to. We didn't need to. The rubber
band short wasn't a thousand trade or a
$100,000 trade or a million-doll trade.
It was a B trade. It made back what a B
trade should make because the grade
drives the size. Not your ego, not your
morning P&L, not the voice in your head
telling you to get it back really fast.
The grade drives the size. It doesn't
matter that we were right. Right? That
stock topped out there. There was this
trader that said, "Oh man, that felt so
good." Right? One of the traders says,
"That's the tough. We won't see those
prices again for a long time in this
thing." But here's the big difference
between falling for that mindset and
letting it go and just trading well. One
mindset focuses on being right. You
attach your personal value to your call,
to your prediction. The other mindset is
is a much more productive one. It
focuses on getting your actions right,
grading well, and not giving yourself
the chance to backslide. The day is not
done because one trade is over. And
here's the key self-t talk after that
moment. All right, I made a mistake,
but I came back and I graded it well and
I let the trade fall into my lap. My
next goal, my very next goal, not the
goal of the year or the month or the
week, but my very next goal is just to
win my asset protocol. The first step of
that, the thing that gets the wheels
moving is to get my allocation right.
That's all I have to do. Now, we're
going to show you the 120, a process we
use. We teach our traders to get back
into that trader mindset in two minutes.
But the key here is I don't have to pick
what's going to happen in the stock on
any given day or week. I just have to
get my allocation right for the very
next trade I'm making. I have to make
sure I have to win the asset protocol
first. And even more of a focus, I have
to win the allocation part of the asset
protocol first.
Once you have that mindset and
particularly if you're looking for the
next trade with that mindset, that
targeted focus, our desk was able to
stay grounded. It actually allowed
traders, it allows you to say, "I don't
have anything to risk now." As we watch
the price action evolve, it wasn't even
a C trade, so it wasn't worth it to me
at all right now. And we just kept
saying that as it kind of chopped
around, chopped around. We let other
people guess with size if it was going
to break out or if it was going to break
down. But at that point, it wasn't even
worth see risk there. So, we didn't have
anything to do. So, nothing was was
done. As we came into the early
afternoon, we started to see, you know,
the price change. We had been watching
SPCX all day. We knew this stock now. We
knew where it had been. We knew how it
moves. We knew where the key levels
were. And we started to see something
happen.
So this red line that you're looking at
of the chart, that's VWOP, the volume
weighted average price. It's the line
that separates where buyers are in
control from where sellers are in
control. For most of the afternoon,
SpaceX had been above VWAP. I mean, not
super strong, a little bit weak, but at
least above VWAP. The sellers were
trying, but the buyers kept holding it
up. Then right around here at like 130,
it started to change.
And then at like 245 it changed the
stock loss VWAP and and not really
barely big candles, real volume, real
sellers stepping in and I'm watching
this happening. I'm running through the
asset grade in real time. Would I have
liked to catch it from that 215 failure
earlier in the day? Yeah, absolutely.
Did I have a trade there? No. Would I
have liked to catch that move below
VWOP? That would be amazing. Did I have
a trade there? No.
Working the asset protocol. What was
happening in the trend at that point?
Now it was clearly down. The VWAP was
lost. The moving averages were rolling
over. The price was making lower lows.
We can actually use a catalyst here too
because the stock spent all morning
trying to go up and now it's failing.
That failure is the catalyst. Remember
price getting through an important
technical level is a catalyst not
because of the level but because of the
psychology of the stock and more
specifically the psychology of the
participants watching and trading this
stock along with us. At this point the
VWAP and that level getting broken
anybody who was looking for this to
squeeze into the close was wrong. the
chasers or the people looking for that
momentum to continue to the upside are
are wrong and they're going to offer us
a great trade for the afternoon. So, the
stock gave it one last attempt to try
and rally back above VWOP and it got
completely stuffed after there was this
consolidation, really tight
consolidation. And if you notice, it's
below the area where the buyers were
supporting it all day. Now, this is a
puppy dog consolidation. It's a
modification of the big dog. It's just a
shorter one at a more pivotal level.
It's a consolidation below a key support
level in a stock that was overextended
and now showing signs of reversal.
Given the fact that the trend changed,
given the fact that the price action was
confirming for us, this is an a
allocation a setup and a setups get a
size. Was there confirmation? Yeah, the
VWAP break was with volume. This wasn't
a fake out. The seller seemed committed.
Now, let's go through our full asset
protocol here again. Allocation. Well,
the stop was clean. It was above VWOP,
above 212, right? If I'm wrong, I know
exactly where I'm wrong. The entry was a
break of the puppy hog consolidation to
the downside. So, it was around 20875.
All right. So, what do you have for a
target here? I I'll admit this is a
little bit of a tricky one, but let's
think about it. If buyers from today are
wrong, where should this go? Well, yeah,
at a minimum it should go down to 200.
It should test everybody who was long,
right? And then with our asset protocol
armed with our a risk, knowing our stop,
knowing our clear entry, and knowing our
target, we can just wait for that entry
to materialize.
It gives us that entry. SBCX started
moving and I mean I mean moving right
now it was getting hammered lower not
that choppy back and forth of the
morning. This is a clean directional
move with sellers in control, buyers
clearly stepping aside. The stock
quickly went from that 209 or 208 entry
to 202.
I've seen this before, but let's break
it down again because now the stock's
below everywhere the buyers have been
supporting all day. The only threshold
left is that 200 target.
It's below that 205 area of key support.
It got so close to that target at 200.
And because it got there so fast, I have
to cover some just because it went down
there that quickly. I cover half traders
on the desk who had loaded in with me.
Lots of traders taking a risk on this
trade.
covered half.
But given the change in dynamics and
given the time of day, I got to look for
a second chance scalp. We all got to
look for a second chance scalp. So, we
can keep half our position with a stop
at break even now from our puppy dog
scalp and we can look for a totally new
trade. And the second chance scalp is a
great one to use once the setup has
changed, right? And this one went from
all the momentum to the upside to all
the momentum to the downside. So, the
setup has changed. The second chance is
a trade you you make when people have to
get in because they're going to have
FOMO after the trade broke out of range
to the upside or they have to get out
because the stock's already broken to
the downside. Again, I'm not counting my
money in the trade that I'm already in
or I'm not worrying about if it stops me
out. I've already accepted the risk and
this next risk is a good risk to be
taking. The risk from the prior trade
was a good risk to be taking.
All I have to do is reset, take a deep
breath, and make sure I can focus on my
asset protocol here. All right, second
chance below a key level this late in
the day. It's B risk. I know, I know
what you're thinking, right? What? Isn't
that a risk? Weren't you just in an
A-Risk trade? But wait a second. Did
this break 200? No. Now, if this same
price action that happening that's
happening around 205 or between 200 and
205, if that was happening below 200,
how much better would this trade be?
That trade would be a risk. All the
buyers would be wrong in the day. But
they're not. So, I have B allocation.
My stop 205 and a half. Let's call it
206 just to be safe because this thing
moves, right? My entry would be when I
get a clear break to the downside. So, I
want to see the candle break that small
range that's formed to the downside.
Entry is like 20330, right? Or 203
probably. And let's just call it three
points of risk. Now, target this is a
momentum trade. So, I'll trail using a
trailing stop of the 9 EMA. And I'll use
it on a one minute chart. Other traders
will use uh a double bar break or
something like that, but I like to give
it a little bit of room and use those
trailing EMAs, but at a minimum, this
should break 200, maybe a little fight
there, and then actually move lower
given the time of day. 205 to 200. I
hold tight stop, let it work. 200 to
197. All right, that's where I start
scaling out or getting ready to scale
out. I'm ready because as soon as that
that bid steps back in, as soon as we
get clearing above that 9 EMA, I really
need to manage my risk 197 to 195. By
the time we close out of the last
position, by the time we get that flush
and then that rebid and all our traders
are saying that that's it, we're out.
that momentum to the downside is gone.
When that happens, we're finally on that
day up some serious money in this trade.
You actually heard it from different
sections of the trading floor as traders
took advantage of this. People were
clapping like, "Yeah, nice job." No one
is applauding the P&L. That wasn't what
we're about. We're actually applauding
the risk and the risk takingaking, that
following of the asset protocol to stay
engaged. This is all on SPCX, SpaceX. It
was the same stock that we lost close to
a million on in the morning across the
desk. But here's the thing I need you to
understand. I want you to understand
because this is the part that so many
people get wrong when they hear a story
like this. I didn't make serious money
because we're better traders than we
were this morning. We didn't suddenly
develop new skills between 10:00 a.m.
and 2 p.m. It's not the way it works,
right? The market just gave us an a
setup in the afternoon.
It gave us a D setup or a C setup maybe
in the morning and then it gave us a B
setup as as we saw that reversal, right?
The only reason I was in a position to
take that A trade with full size with a
clear head with that discipline to hold
it and then add to it when that other
trade showed up was because I hadn't
blown up my account on the idea trade in
the morning. And more importantly, I
hadn't blown up my psychology
on that idea trade in the morning. I
didn't need grit. I didn't need like
like this resolve to be able to stick
with the idea. No, the mental cushion I
built by using that appropriate reset,
the money I made back in the B trade,
that's what gave me the emotional runway
to trade the afternoon correctly. I
wasn't desperate. I wasn't trying to get
back to break even. I was just watching,
waiting, grading, and looking for that a
trade. And when it came, I was ready.
All right. So, let me ask you something.
If you'd been down $1,000 or $100,000 or
a million dollars by 10:00 a.m. today,
what would you have done? Would you have
stepped back,
graded the next setup, size for a B when
you were only in a B situation?
Or would you have done what most people
do? Let that morning loss poison the
reversal and then the afternoon. Because
here's what I've learned after years of
training traders at SMB. The traders who
make money long term, they're not the
ones with the best scanner or the best
data feed or the most screens. They're
the ones who put themselves in a
position to grade every single trade.
That's the standard that they have for
themselves. They don't listen to how
they're feeling. They listen for if they
are thinking through trades from the
asset protocol. If they can't follow the
asset protocol, that's when they take a
break, a quick break, but a break. Let's
get into the specific twominut break
that they take. And this is a little
part of the pressure mastery protocol we
teach to our traders. This subset of it
is called the 120. And here it is. Step
one, you label the emotions that you're
feeling. And this comes from a concept
from a really great book, Never Split
the Difference. I think it's by Chris
Voss. We actually teach traders to label
the event that triggered them and label
the emotion around it. And what they do
is they actually say this out loud. I
forced this trade because I was afraid
to miss a good opportunity.
So they label the trigger and they label
the emotion.
That's the first step of this entire
process. Usually, it takes a couple
seconds to get into that mindset when
you're like, "Okay, I forced this trade
because I was afraid to miss a good
opportunity." Step two, you take your
hands off the keys for 60 seconds. Off
the mouse, off the keys for 60 seconds.
Not getting up and running away. Just 60
seconds sitting at your desk. Hands off
keys, off mouse. Just be there.
That's the pause.
That pause allows your brain to start
receiving information again
and then you make the switch. Step
three, you go right into the asset
protocol. Now, if you can't get to a
clear asset protocol, you don't force
anything, but you use it to get back
into high quality idea generation mode.
Here's an example from this morning
right after I took a 120. All right. All
right. The allocation. All right. This
is now extended. It's a B trade. If I
see a rubber band candle. All right. If
I see a rubber band candle, where's my
stop? All right. It's above the high of
the candle. Where is my entry? All
right. It's the close of the first red
bar before the prior two green bars,
right? Double bar break. What's my
target? It's VWAP. Now, a really
fascinating thing happens when you enact
the 120.
Traders,
you won't become someone you're not.
You'll actually become who you actually
are. And for almost everybody, that's
enough. Traders are balanced. They're
back to who they are at their best. They
can trade with a clear mind because
we're traders who size by the grade, not
by how they feel.
Traders that use this stay in the game
long enough for that a setup. That setup
that occurred later in the day to arrive
and at that point they take the right
risk in the right trade. That's who we
are and that's who you are. You're just
like us. We're all traders. We're all
elite level traders. Today started badly
and I could have let that define the
whole day. We could have let that define
our whole approach to the opportunities
offered on the day. But instead, I let
the grade define my trades and the
trades define the day. That's the shift.
That's what changes everything.
If you want to build a system that
actually does this, if you want to
understand how to grade your setups, how
to size by grade, how to know the
difference between a C trade and an A
trade before you're in it, uh here's a
link to a video where we teach the
actual trades we discuss, and there are
cheat sheets for those as well. Watch
that next. It's the framework behind the
trades I made today, and it'll change
the way you see every chart you look at
from here on. I'll see you there.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses how a professional trading desk handled a significant morning loss on the stock SPCX by adhering to a disciplined 'asset protocol'. The speaker explains the mistake of predicting the market rather than reacting to it, and how they used the '120' protocol—a two-minute reset process—to maintain emotional control. By grading setups and sizing positions based on that grade (A, B, C, or D) instead of revenge trading, the team successfully recovered their losses and capitalized on an 'A-setup' later in the day.
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