All right, Alexander, let's do an update

on the negotiations between the United

States and Iran, which are taking place

in Switzerland with J.D. Vance, Witcoff,

and Kushner on the American side, and

Ghalibaf and Araghchi on the Iranian

side.

Pakistan and Qatar are mediating.

The talks started over over the weekend.

And then Trump posted posted on Truth

Social and spoke to Fox News about

hitting Tehran or hitting Iran if if the

talks don't work out. And so Araghchi

decided to walk out of the talks, but

then we got messages from Pakistan and

Qatar

that the talks actually progressed.

And and the result was positive. Even

Araghchi posted on on X that the talks

have

have progressed quite a bit,

especially on Hormuz, the sea blockade.

And there there is some sort of a

framework that is being put in place for

Lebanon

to to get the

the fighting in Lebanon to to end. And

that that is what what Pakistan said,

Qatar, Araghchi. So so that's

that's that's an update on what has

happened in Switzerland, 18 hours

of talks. Your thoughts?

>> 18 hours of talks and no one gets the

sense that for the first time they're

talking about actual real things. But

notice they're not talk what they're not

talking about apparently, which is

Iran's nuclear enrichment program, its

uranium enrichment program, which was

what of course they were all talking

about before 28th of February, when the

attack took place.

And you know, there's no

suggestion any longer about

you know, dismantling Iran's ballistic

missiles or major political changes in

Iran or any of those things. So, we are

talking about a framework agreement

which is a framework framework agreement

which takes the the process forward

but which ultimately follows Iran's

agenda. It's the Iranians who want to

see blockade lifted. It's the Iranians

who want to start trading normally with

the outside world. It's the Iranians who

want the Americans to pull back

from close to their borders and it is

the Iranians who also want a framework

agreement

covering Lebanon where there has been

fighting going on not between the

Iran and the United States but between

Israel and Hezbollah. And this is all

very difficult for some people in the

United States

unsurprisingly

to accept because it's a product

of what is ultimately and you know, we

shouldn't

you know,

skate the words an American defeat in

this conflict that's happened up to this

time. And Trump of course is making

these very belligerent, very

confrontational statements which

at some point create problems in the

negotiations

because he's coming under heavy

criticism both publicly but also in

private from those people who went

pushed for the war against Iran before

the 28th of February

seeking

ultimately

not just you know, the kind of framework

agreements we're seeing now, but regime

change, the scrapping of Iran's

ballistic missiles, the termination of

all enrichment activities in Iran, and

the transformation of Iran ultimately

into a US

um Israeli vassal state. So, these

people are furious. You're getting

reports that they say that they're

feeling betrayed. We've had articles

appearing by John Bolton criticizing

Trump. We've had a 4 and 1/2 hour

meeting between Trump and Lindsey

Graham. Um media outlets in Israel that

are collect connected with Miriam

Adelson are coming out and are

criticizing Trump. There's talk of

betrayal, all of those sorts of things.

And Trump is uh annoyed and upset upset

about this, and he's on the defensive,

and that's why he's coming out and he's

coming out with these belligerent

statements. Ultimately, though,

he is not going to resume the war at

this time because if he does resume the

war, if the um closure of the Strait of

Hormuz,

which the Iranians, by the way, are sort

of suggesting they have reimposed, but

if that this remains permanent, we are

indeed going to have an economic crisis

in the West and in the United States. Um

Trump has even said that in that

situation, he would be like Herbert

Hoover, the president on who basically

led the United States into the Great

Depression of the 1930s. Trump doesn't

want that. So, we have these belligerent

statements, we have this aggressive

language, but none of this ultimately is

real.

Um

the talks between the Americans and the

Iranians continue for the time being

following the Iranian agenda. But the

fact that all this rhetoric is taking

place, that the neocons are mobilizing,

that they are already now spinning a new

narrative, that victory was in America's

grasp, that all that Trump needed to do

was to activate the Kurdish militias in

Iraq who were supposedly ready to

advance into Iran. That narrative is

going to grow. We're going to We're

going to expect that that's going to

develop. There's going to be articles

appearing about it and talk about how

Trump somehow muffed it.

That's narrative is going to develop and

the criticisms are going to grow. And

sooner or later, I suspect, as they

always do, the neocons will manage to

derail this process. And as we've

discussed in recent programs, um,

sooner or later

we'll be back to confrontation between

Iran and the United States again. But

for the moment

Trump has to continue with this process,

this negotiating process, because he has

no alternative but to do so. He cannot

risk the kind of massive recession that

the oil executives, the oil companies

have warned him about.

>> Yeah, the neocons don't think about

stuff like that. And for the neocons,

they're all They're always so close to

victory. If only, if only this person

did X, Y, and Z, then they would have

been victorious.

We've been hearing that for the neocons

for the past 20, 30 years.

What's new?

Uh, the

the question for for for me that that I

have with Trump is, um, will he will he

hold off the neocons for the remainder

of his, uh, term and then pass this off

to the next president

or will he fold? He's not going to start

anything most likely we're not going to

get a resumption of of the conflict or

at least a full a full-scale resumption

of the conflict until after the

midterms. That would be my guess.

He's going to wait until until the

midterms are wrapped up.

The reserves are going to refill,

restock. Maybe

some stability in in the economic

situation and the energy situation rearm

with with regards to to military

stockpiles. So you got to imagine that's

going to take time 6 months to a year

and then of course you have the

midterms.

So

a full-scale conflict until the the

midterms

unlikely.

Not not impossible

but I would guess unlikely.

And then we get to the question of after

the midterms. Trump has 2 years left. So

can it does he want to and can he hold

back the neocons and drag this out for 2

years and then just pass it off to the

next administration or does he fold?

>> I think that Donald Trump has always

folded to the neocons whenever he has

found himself in direct confrontation

with them. I mean the fact that he has

met and spoken with Lindsey Graham

apparently for 4 and 1/2 hours.

I mean that tells you absolutely

everything. A president who clearly made

up his mind would have met Lindsey for

30 minutes and tell him look Lindsey

this is my decision. Go away. I mean the

fact that he's prepared to speak to him

for this long again

what it shows is that Trump is nervous

and afraid of these people. And I think

that

sooner or later

he will indeed, resume

a confrontation with Iran.

Sooner or later, the United States will

resume a confrontation with Iran,

whether or not Trump wants it. Remember,

the neocons are strong within the

Republican Party. The neocons are also

strong

within the Democratic Party, as well.

So, yes, it's not going to happen

before the before the midterms. Exactly

as you say, it cannot happen. It's going

to take longer, actually, than waiting

until after the midterms. Rebuilding the

petroleum reserve, I I've been told

would be a

task of two or three years.

Now, to bring it back to where it was

before Biden took over and started to

deplete it in 2022,

at the time of the crisis

that happened, you know, after the start

of the special military operation, when

oil prices rose and Biden began to

deplete the reserve to try to bring

prices down. So,

getting back to that point

will take two or three years of a stable

situation in the oil markets.

Getting to the point where US weapons

inventories

are back to the level that they were

before the war, and even more so, before

2022,

when the United States began to deplete

its reserves to support Zelenskyy, is

also going to take years.

So,

if Trump,

you know, explains all this to the

neocons, say, "Look, I can't do this

with the weapons I have or the weapons I

am likely to have for two or three years

time.

Well, that that would give us a kind of

timeline. But as you rightly say,

neocons never ever

care about these things. They're going

to push for war to resume quickly

because they always do. And the the the

iron rule is that Trump eventually

ultimately always folds. This is my

guess. They will produce a lot of

weapons. They will stop buying these

weapons. They're not going to transfer

them to Zelensky or anyone else because

now the overriding priority is to

reverse this defeat that they've had

with Iran. So, he's going to stop buying

weapons. He's going to be trying to

build up the inventories to the extent

that he can. And then this time next

year we will see again a resumption of

the confrontation with Iran with the

negotiations in the meantime going

nowhere. That I suspect is the most

plausible timeline.

>> Look, I imagine a lot of the discussion

with Lindsey Graham focused on the

midterms.

>> Absolutely.

>> I mean I mean Trump has

good leverage over Graham in in that

he's telling Graham, "Look, back off

or support me at least for for a while.

Don't don't don't go too hard against me

and then I'll support you during the

midterms." I mean, I saw some of the

posts that that Graham put up that Trump

put up over the weekend.

And and Graham was kind of supporting

Trump. He he was supporting Trump with

with with the negotiations.

And Trump was supporting Graham in South

Carolina. So, you got to imagine over

the next 6 to 9 months

>> Yeah.

>> that's kind of the deal that they're

working out.

Right? You know, I'll get you reelected

in South Carolina.

Don't go too hard against me and what

I've done with with Iran. And that's

what they were kind of bargaining. But

once the bid terms are over,

>> Yeah.

>> then you know, it's it's it's it's

everything is fair game, right?

>> A full a full and a half hour meeting

suggests a very contentious meeting to

me.

I I absolutely agree with you that that

is the ultimate deal and that's the

framework that Graham and Trump have

agreed with each other. But I'm sure

that in private Graham pushed back much

harder than he's doing in public. And

Trump hit back. And you could see the

results in some of the comments on Truth

Social that Trump has been pushing. So

um I I I I

people who are in basic agreement with

each other

do not need to speak for 4 and 1/2

hours.

There there was clearly there was

clearly recriminations and arguments

going on. I suspect

Graham wants the thing to be moved

forward faster. Trump is trying to

explain to him that look, we've got to

deal with the petroleum reserves or

inventories are low, all of those kind

of things.

Graham probably wasn't really in the

mood to listen. And all of these things.

There is something people need to

understand about the neocons,

which is this.

Even more important than controlling US

foreign policy for the neocons is

maintaining their own political

position. That lock grip of the US

government in Washington.

For the neocons to be able to do that,

they need

to

to distance any narrative from any idea

that there is a limit to what the United

States can do. If there is a general

acceptance that the United States can

only do so much in any given situation,

then the neocons position starts to

become more

vulnerable because for them

pushing forward

implies that the United States has

essentially unlimited power.

And if they can't push forward if they

can't push the United States to

confrontation all the time, then what is

the point of them?

So

almost by definition, they are never

going to accept that there are limits to

American power and that there are limits

to what the United States can do. They

are always going to insist that it is

within the US's power to do anything.

And they are going to say that the

failure to achieve the objective is not

because American power has limits. It's

because there has been at some level a

lack of political will. And that's why

they're now spinning this story about

Kurdish militias supposedly ready to

pounce on Iran, which for some reason,

supposedly because Erdogan objected,

Donald Trump didn't activate. Of course,

had there really been these militias

ready to pounce on Iran in the way that

the neocons are now saying, Donald Trump

would have done it. He's not going to

stop because Erdogan objects. But that's

not important for the neocons. They need

some argument. They need some story out

there to always argue that victory was

within the US's grasp. And it's weakness

at the center, a lack of political will,

which explains why that victory was not

achieved.

>> Yeah, they they tried the Kurd thing.

They tried it.

>> Of course they did.

>> a no-go.

>> It was a no-go.

>> So, what they're saying is is is

nonsense. But, most people have

forgotten about That was way in the

beginning of the conflict. So, the

neocons probably figured that most

people have forgotten about the the

whole Kurd thing.

>> Yeah.

>> And uh how the Kurds told uh told the

Trump administration no way if we go

into Iran, we're going to get

slaughtered. And uh and so they're

they're back to the Kurd thing. They

They'll start soon with with Russia's to

blame and China's to blame as well. And

if only we had given uh Reza Pahlavi

F-16s.

>> Yeah.

>> Then we would have won the conflict or

something like that, right? If we had

only given them the wonder weapon that

that they needed and whatever. Um okay,

that's that's the neocons.

Um

How do you deal with uh with Israel if

you're the Trump administration? Because

you have the neocons and you have to

deal with them.

And uh and then you have to figure out a

way to get Israel to to stop the

fighting in Lebanon.

How How do you deal with that one? That

is the the number one

um

topic the number one point

on the memorandum of understanding. And

uh

and Iran is is holding firm on on that

red line. They are not backing off from

the red line of uh of a cessation to

hostilities in Lebanon. There is some

talk that the Trump administration

might be looking to to remove uh

Netanyahu.

>> Yeah.

>> That they are talking with other uh

parties other political parties to to

sideline Netanyahu.

>> In theory, nothing should be easier for

the United States than to rein in

Israel. I mean, look at the power of the

United States. Look at the power and

size of Israel. It is obvious to anyone

who the dominant party is. As we all

know,

it is

not that simple. Um the um Trump

administration has, you know, aligned

itself very closely with Israel's

friends in Washington. The

military-industrial complex in the

United States is very, very closely

aligned with Israel as well. It's very,

very difficult politically for any

American president to do what Trump

actually needs to do in this situation,

which is to bring Israel to heel. And I

think ultimately um try to get the

Israelis not just to stop in Lebanon,

but to actually withdraw from Lebanon

because if the Israelis remain in

Lebanon for any length of time,

then um fighting with Hezbollah is

certain to resume because Hezbollah,

remember, began as a resistance movement

against the Israeli army in the 1980s

and 1990s, which at that time was

occupying southern Lebanon. So, um

is Hezbollah's entire reason for

existence is

was to oppose Israeli occupation of

southern Lebanon. And if the Israelis

remain in Lebanon, that calculus, that

whole motivation will kick in again. So,

Trump has to do something

which no US president has done

basically since Eisenhower in the '50s.

He's got to get the Israelis not just to

stop, but to withdraw.

Eisenhower in the 1950s told in 1956

told the Israelis, "Pull out of Sinai."

Which the Israelis had occupied in the

1956

Israel-Egypt War. The Israelis were

furious. They protested. They had to do

it in the end.

Can Trump do that now?

He [snorts] could in theory achieve it.

He could stop He could tell the Israelis

if you If you know, continue with what

you're doing, we're going to cut off US

aid. We might even start reducing our

commitment to your air defense. You

could do all kinds of things which could

force the Israelis to withdraw. But does

he have the political will and the

political strength to do these things?

That is a very, very big question. And

coming back to Trump's ultimate problem,

which to be clear is the neocons in

Washington. They of course are going to

work very closely with Israelis to try

to sabotage this process in every

possible way that they can. Perhaps they

don't also want an immediate return to

war, but they will try to keep Israeli

forces in Lebanon so that the situation

can continue to be tense, so that

relations between the United States and

Iran never fully move forward. We don't

start to see a movement towards a final

settlement. The neocons in Washington,

the Israelis

for them, that is

what they want to prevent at all costs.

And I have to say I think they're going

to succeed.

>> Right, just a final question. The GCC

countries?

Where are they

>> Well, that is a very Now, that is in

some ways the most interesting question

of all because

we see that some GCC countries

um

Qatar

um probably Kuwait, too.

Quietly one suspects the Saudis.

Um and of course Oman. Um

They

are gradually trying to get this whole

thing de-escalated.

They want normal life to resume.

They uh sense that they were catapulted

into a war

on a completely false premise that the

United States would prevail quickly over

Iran.

It turned out to be a disaster for them.

They probably will want to see some kind

of

actual long-term resolution, or at least

a resolution long-term enough so that

they can build alternative pipelines to

the Red Sea or the Mediterranean or one

of those things. So, they they want

again contrary to the Israelis, they

want to see this process move forward,

which is why um

Qatar is now directly involved alongside

Pakistan in trying to mediate this

process, which has been taking place in

Geneva. So, they they are they they have

diverged from Washington.

And they have diverged also from Israel,

too. The trouble is the

Persian Gulf Arab countries

are not

the strongest actors. They have still

lots of money and resources, but they're

not major military force.

And they are very, very locked in to a

system of economic and military

alliances with the United States. They

have pegged, in most cases, their

currency to the dollar. It'd be very

difficult. And in fact, very, very

destabilizing for them to break that

link. But, if the situation can't fully

stabilize in the Middle East if this

thing is playing out, if it looks as if

the Israelis are trying and the neocons

and the hardliners in Washington are all

going to take the United States back

into a similar war with Iran to the one

that we've just seen, then you can

imagine that some of the Persian Gulf

states might start to reach out to Iran

directly and see whether they can

cut deals with the Iranians for some

kind of joint control of the Persian

Gulf which is what the Chinese and the

Russians are urging them to do. Now, I

think we're very far from that point. I

don't personally think we're ever fully

going to get to that point but

at some point if things really do start

to jam up in the way that we say um

outreach by the Persian Gulf states to

the Iranians is a possibility and that

might complicate things for the

Americans and even more for the Israelis

going forward.

>> Yeah. I I just don't see how Iran can uh

can prevent this war from starting up

again. I mean, they're talking about

security guarantees. They're talking

about

uh something going to the Security

Council and being voted on at that the

UN.

Uh

They're not going to get a a treaty

that's that the Senate or or Congress

approves. That's never going to happen.

Uh so, I mean, there's there's really no

way that Iran can prevent this conflict

from restarting.

I mean, it's going to be a a long

a long drawn-out conflict, I think. Um

it'll start. It'll stop.

It'll start again. It'll stop again. I I

just don't see it ending in the in the

next year or two.

>> I I I absolutely agree.

>> definitively ending, I want to say.

>> I absolutely agree. I think that is by

far the most likely outcome. I think

many, many people, far too many people,

um

are saying to themselves, you know, this

this is the war. The war was is over.

Iran won. The United States was

defeated. The United The Iranians have

the US over a barrel because they're

able to close the Strait of Hormuz, all

of those things. I think people are

underestimating

the forces in Washington, especially

what I mean ultimately in Washington. I

mean you know

it's in Washington that the decisions

ultimately are made. The forces in

Washington that still want this conflict

to resume. And the people who make up

these forces are now furious

that the

Iranians

were able to fight the Americans

and to stop them in this war. So

on top of everything else, on top of you

know the grievances that are left over

from 1979,

on top of the sense that Iran is the

great adversary that the United States

has in the Middle East, there is now the

desire

which is going to get stronger in the

United States amongst these people for

revenge

over the defeat on the United States

that Iran has just exacted. And the

these people we're talking about, they

will say we have to anyway exact that

revenge because our authority in the

Middle East and our prestige as a

superpower depends on it. I I'm

absolutely certain that this is in I

just as you are that this is only what

we've just seen

is only one stage in a very very long

drawn out drama

and that the really big war is still to

come.

Obviously

I would like to be proved wrong. I would

like to believe that the negotiations

between Iran and the United States will

um move forward. There are some good

faith actors in the United States who

want to see that happen. There are

realists in the United States who say

that that is the best outcome for the

United States. I agree with those

people, but we have to be realistic and

understand that this is now the

political agenda of many people in the

United States. It goes well beyond

for example strategies about cutting

China off from oil and things like that.

It is about reversing

an American defeat.

And when people are in that kind of

mindset, well,

it's very difficult to stop a war from

happen.

>> [snorts]

>> Yeah.

Yeah, I agree.

Uh well,

we'll uh we'll see how these

negotiations go in Switzerland. And um

I I think we're at a we're moving

towards a technical stage, I believe

now, right? Yeah. So, we're going to

Vance and all these guys are are gone

and now the teams are going to

>> Yes.

>> to take over. I think that's the

process.

>> All of all of it all of which is

>> through before.

>> All of which

>> We've been through this before as well.

>> Absolutely. All of which is supposed to

happen within 60 days. And we've already

got the clock

dialing down. Seven of those days are

already gone. So, it's 53 days. I don't

know anybody who seriously believes that

is going to happen. And again, it's

going to be like and I I the Minsk

process all over again. Meeting after

meeting, people negotiating on the same

points again and again and again. And in

the meantime, certainly the Americans

will be building up and preparing for

the next round. And if they're wise, the

Iranians will do the same.

>> The Iranians will do the same.

Absolutely. But but you know, just to

wrap up the video, the the neocons

accomplished something very important

>> Yeah.

>> in in this conflict. Very very

important. They they got someone

in the Trump administration to actually

go ahead and attack Iran. Absolutely.

Yeah, they've been trying to get that

going for for God knows how many decades

and they finally got it.

So so they're not going to lose that.

>> No. The taboo that the the taboo has

been broken and that's absolutely

correct. So

it it may be

that everything that they were

previously saying about how weak Iran is

as a house of cards that's about to

collapse, that the Iranian people are

only waiting for the you know, the

signal to rise up and overthrow the the

Ayatollahs.

It may be that everything else that

they've been saying has proved to be

wrong. It may also be the case that you

know, this latest story about the

Kurdish militias is untrue as well. But

they've got that

principle that the United States can

attack Iran now. And they will never as

you rightly said, they will never let

go. And they're now out for revenge as

well as everything else, too. And

they're not going to let you know,

things like depletion of oil reserves or

worries about military build-ups

arms production and all of that. That's

not going to stop them.

>> [snorts]

>> Neither will President Trump or neither

will JD Vance.

>> No.

>> None of that's going to stop them,

either.

>> It would require it would require a

fundamental political change in the

United States itself

which may happen one day.

I I I hope that one day it will happen

for that to change. But we are not at

that point still

and being realistic about it, perhaps we

never will be.

>> Yeah.

>> All right.

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