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How the Fastest Growing Hedge Fund in the World Just Lost Everything (Leopold Aschenbrenner)

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How the Fastest Growing Hedge Fund in the World Just Lost Everything (Leopold Aschenbrenner)

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413 segments

0:00

Today, I want to walk through one of the

0:02

craziest hedge fund stories that I've

0:04

heard of in years. This fund goes from

0:06

being one of the hottest names on Wall

0:08

Street, managing more than $20 billion,

0:11

posting incredible returns, and then

0:14

within just a few days, everything

0:16

completely falls apart. We're talking

0:18

about a guy who's 24 years old. Not long

0:21

ago, he was graduating college. 2 years

0:24

ago, he got fired from OpenAI, and by

0:26

this month, the fund that he built was

0:29

reportedly worth as much as $45 billion.

0:32

Then, on Thursday morning, it sold its

0:34

entire public portfolio. It liquidated

0:37

billions of dollars of longs in what one

0:40

CNBC reporter called one enormous trade.

0:44

And the firm that bought the whole

0:45

wreckage had Ken Griffin's Citadel. Now,

0:49

here's the thing. There's a clean

0:50

version of the story, and then there's

0:52

the conspiracy version of the story. I'm

0:55

going to give you both here in this

0:57

video today. I'm going to be honest with

0:59

you about which parts are confirmed and

1:01

which parts are people on the internet

1:03

connecting the dots on. So, let's get

1:05

right into it. For those that don't

1:07

know, Leopold Aschenbrenner was a former

1:10

OpenAI researcher. Before all of this,

1:13

he spent time at the philanthropy arm of

1:15

Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX. Yes, the same

1:19

FTX right before the collapse. Then, he

1:22

joined OpenAI, the company behind

1:25

ChatGPT, on their superintelligence

1:27

team, the group focused on AI safety. He

1:31

was fired in April of 2024. OpenAI said

1:35

it was over an alleged information leak,

1:37

but he disputes that. Here's where it

1:39

gets really interesting. 2 months after

1:41

getting fired, he published a 165-page

1:45

essay called Situational Awareness: The

1:47

Decade Ahead. His bet is that AGI, or

1:50

human-level artificial intelligence, is

1:53

coming around 2027, and the world isn't

1:57

ready for it. And whoever builds the

1:59

physical infrastructure for it makes an

2:01

absolute fortune. The essay went mega

2:04

viral. This essay I read completely over

2:07

an entire weekend where I spent 8 hours

2:10

reading it. And honestly, it was

2:12

something that shocked me as well. It

2:14

got taken seriously by tech CEOs and the

2:17

investors of the world. And then, he did

2:20

a thing that almost nobody does with a

2:22

viral manifesto. He turned it into a

2:25

hedge fund. Stories like this are pretty

2:28

crazy because you think that he would

2:30

know something that we don't. And it

2:32

definitely seems that way until he makes

2:35

a mistake as big as this one day and it

2:38

completely changes everything. So

2:40

anyways, the people backing his hedge

2:42

fund called Situational Awareness LP

2:45

were actually very intelligent,

2:47

well-known people. We're talking about

2:49

Collison brothers who founded Stripe,

2:51

former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman, and

2:54

investor Daniel Gross. Serious money

2:57

took him seriously. And to be fair, for

3:00

a while it worked spectacularly. Let's

3:03

talk about how the fund actually made

3:05

money cuz this is the whole story. The

3:07

strategy was pure concentration and AI

3:10

conviction. Instead of the obvious mega

3:12

cap names, the bets that he was making

3:14

on AI infrastructure were absolutely

3:17

genius given the AI buildout. The chips,

3:21

the memory, the data centers, and the

3:23

power. And it seemed like his timing was

3:26

just absolutely impeccable. It's like he

3:28

could time the market. And he was also

3:30

investing in the picks and shovels layer

3:32

underneath the whole AI boom. And the

3:34

concentration here is wild. According to

3:37

public filings, his single biggest

3:39

position was Nebius, ticker symbol NBIS,

3:43

a pure play AI cloud company spun out of

3:47

the old Yandex. And at one point, that

3:50

one stock was reportedly around 40% of

3:53

his entire portfolio. 40% in one name?

3:57

Why would someone this smart, with this

4:00

much experience, with this much

4:01

connections to, you know, inside people

4:03

who work in AI, and has worked in AI

4:06

himself, why would he not pay attention

4:08

to risk management? Does Leopold

4:10

Aeschlimann know something that the

4:11

general public doesn't? Well, his other

4:14

big disclosed holdings included SanDisk,

4:16

ticker symbol SNDX, the memory chip

4:19

maker, along with Micron, CoreWeave, and

4:22

SK Hynix in Korea. They're all

4:24

infrastructure names, all levered in the

4:26

same exact insane AI buildout thesis.

4:30

That concentration is the fuel, it's

4:33

also the bomb at the same time. When

4:35

your book is that lopsided, it's all on

4:38

the same bet, you don't really have a

4:39

portfolio. This is what I talk about a

4:41

lot on this channel. Guys, correlation,

4:44

it is extremely dangerous to hold

4:46

multiple stocks in your portfolio that

4:48

are heavily correlated. video exactly on

4:51

this coming out tomorrow, because having

4:53

multiple stocks does not mean that

4:54

you're protecting yourself. Because if

4:56

one goes up, the others go up, and you

4:58

might look like a genius, just like

5:00

Leopold Aeschlimann. He turned a couple

5:02

hundred million into many billions of

5:05

dollars. In fact, he had $13 billion in

5:08

profit, and that was only over a

5:10

15-month period. But if one goes down,

5:12

well, you can guess what will happen to

5:14

the rest. The others go down, too, and

5:17

all of a sudden your portfolio comes

5:18

crashing down. This is a catastrophic

5:20

example of it happening to Leopold

5:23

Aeschlimann in real time, right now. We

5:27

are witnessing a crash that we have not

5:29

really even seen. So, $45 billion,

5:32

that's what his fund was reported to

5:34

have reached at one point. I actually

5:36

heard on CNBC as well. They started this

5:38

year at around $3 billion, so the growth

5:41

was insane, and they were using options

5:43

as leverage as well. And when the fund

5:46

launched back in late 2024, it was only

5:48

around 225 million. So, look at the

5:51

growth up 45 billion dollars. Of course,

5:54

you have to be amazing at picking stocks

5:56

like he was, but you also have to have

5:58

some stacks and serious leverage on top

6:01

of that. It also feels to me that he may

6:03

have had information that is advantage

6:06

information. That's something that I

6:08

couldn't get my hands on, and neither

6:09

could you. And reportedly, he was

6:11

running around four times leverage. So,

6:14

going from 3 billion at the start of

6:16

this year up to 45 billion at one point,

6:19

those are ridiculous gains. But, the

6:22

leverage is what made them possible,

6:24

which means that when we saw the unwind,

6:27

and it has been a huge unwind in AI

6:29

stocks over the past month, he got hit

6:31

by it very hard and was forced to sell.

6:34

CNBC put it like this, "The battered

6:36

hedge fund founded founded by former

6:39

OpenAI researcher Leopold Bernauer is

6:41

unwinding many of its trades after big

6:44

losses on artificial intelligence

6:45

stocks. A bad against software stocks

6:48

left it scrambling to raise cash,

6:50

according to people familiar with the

6:52

matter." So, it sounds like he was also

6:54

shorting the software market, betting

6:56

against it. And of course, software has

6:58

actually been doing quite well,

7:00

especially compared to AI over the past

7:03

month. That's a nightmare scenario. You

7:05

lose all the long side of the book and

7:07

the short side at the same time. So, he

7:10

was completely wrong on direction, which

7:12

is really confusing since he's been so

7:14

right for over 15 months. What would

7:17

make him have losing month ever in the

7:20

last 30 days basically changes his

7:22

entire life story all in the public eye.

7:25

The prime broker for the fund, Goldman

7:27

Sachs, where I formerly used to work, as

7:30

well as JP Morgan and Bank of America,

7:32

have been rushing to raise cash to meet

7:34

margin requirements. And that's the

7:36

mechanism you have to understand here.

7:38

When your position starts to lose and

7:40

you're leveraged up, the broker may make

7:43

a margin call on you because they need

7:45

to cover their own behind. So, they tell

7:48

you to put up more cash right now or

7:50

they sell your positions for you whether

7:52

you like it or not. And that is a

7:55

tripwire. That's exactly what went off.

7:58

Situational Awareness sustained

7:59

significant losses in recent weeks as

8:01

its portfolio of AI infrastructure

8:03

investments such as SK Hynix declined

8:06

when short positions in software

8:07

companies such as Adobe moved sharply

8:09

against them. So, it seems like he had a

8:11

big position in SK Hynix as well. This

8:13

is company that only recently became

8:15

easily available to US investors and

8:18

they came in light on earnings and they

8:20

came in light on earnings versus what

8:22

people were expecting. So, that sell-off

8:24

likely contributed to the damage of his

8:26

portfolio. Now, SK Hynix is also very

8:28

interesting because you guys have

8:29

probably watched videos on the Korean

8:31

market. People in South Korea have

8:33

literally lost their entire life

8:35

fortunes including their houses betting

8:37

on the Korean market which is very

8:39

highly concentrated in just a few

8:41

stocks, SK Hynix being one of them. And

8:43

we're also going to go into some of the

8:45

stocks that he held big positions in

8:47

because while this drop-off hit a lot of

8:49

chip stocks and a lot of AI stocks

8:52

broadly, there were some that got hit

8:54

unusually hard and it does seem like he

8:56

may have been forced to sell those names

8:59

without actually wanting to which made

9:00

them decline even further. As we spoke

9:03

about, the fund grew to its biggest $45

9:06

billion at the start of July before the

9:08

big losses took hold. According to all

9:11

the research that I've been doing. So,

9:12

it just shows you the kind of situation

9:14

you can get yourself into if you're

9:16

using leverage. This guy was picking

9:18

some of the best companies in the entire

9:20

world and before Thursday's open on July

9:23

30th, it was all over for him. CNBC's

9:26

David Faber reported that the fund

9:28

exited all of his public investments in

9:30

a single block in one enormous trade.

9:33

And the buyer, per the Wall Street

9:34

Journal, was Ken Griffin's Citadel.

9:37

That's a familiar pattern for Citadel,

9:39

by the way. Stepping in to scoop up

9:41

assets when a leveraged player is being

9:43

forced to unwind. He is very

9:46

opportunistic, and he's always looking

9:47

for a fire sale. They already held some

9:50

of the same AI infrastructure names

9:52

themselves, which suggested that Griffin

9:54

thinks the sector recovers, and he just

9:56

has the balance sheet to wait it out.

9:58

Ashenbrenner didn't. Ashenbrenner is a

10:01

young man, despite making hundreds of

10:03

millions of dollars probably on a

10:05

personal level, and billions of dollars

10:07

for investors, he didn't have the

10:09

liquidity. One important clarification,

10:12

because there was a lot of confusion

10:13

about this. The fund was reportedly

10:15

negotiating around its private holdings,

10:18

too. A spokesperson said reports that it

10:20

was marketing a stake it owns in

10:23

Anthropic were not accurate. As it

10:25

stands, the private book stayed put.

10:27

Situational Awareness still holds its

10:29

Anthropic stake, reportedly valued at

10:32

around $5 billion. That's likely where

10:34

the focus goes for the time being. So,

10:37

this is a public equity wipeout, not a

10:39

total shutdown. The fund's assets were

10:41

reported to be somewhere around $10

10:43

billion now, down more than half. The

10:46

other big question is how much of the

10:48

recent selling pressure was him, because

10:50

there are companies here where he owned

10:52

massive stakes. Nvidia, for example, he

10:54

owned over a 5% position in the entire

10:57

company. So, if the fund was being

10:58

forced to offload that on the open

11:00

market to meet margin, that creates an

11:02

enormous amount of selling pressure in

11:04

one name. There's also a share in AI

11:06

where he owned a huge chunk. The fund's

11:08

largest holding at the end of the first

11:10

quarter included Nvidia, Sandisk,

11:12

Micron, and Palantir, according to

11:14

filings, and all four of those were down

11:16

more than 35% this month, some even

11:19

more. Nvidia, for example, was down 50%

11:22

from its all-time highs in just under

11:24

two months. That was really, really

11:27

rapid selling, and the size of the

11:28

fund's losses still haven't been fully

11:30

determined. I'm sure we're going to

11:32

learn a lot more about in the very near

11:35

future. Make sure you subscribe to this

11:36

channel because I'm going to be further

11:38

covering what's unfolding with this

11:40

story and how you can take advantage of

11:42

it as an AI investor. People are already

11:45

asking how it happened this fast that

11:47

over $40 billion at the start of the

11:49

month and for that to unwind in a matter

11:51

of weeks is a massive blowup. This is

11:54

actually kind of embarrassing from

11:56

someone who has made so many billions of

11:58

dollars. But at the same time, markets

12:01

are very volatile and anything is

12:03

possible in the market. It can surprise

12:05

even some of the best investors. Now,

12:07

let's take a look at some of the stocks

12:09

that he owned because we're seeing a

12:10

massive rebound at the moment. Every

12:12

time the stock market falls, there's

12:14

many opportunities. So, first off is the

12:17

VanEck Semiconductor ETF, ticker SMH.

12:21

I've been through this before, but it

12:23

basically is a good way to track the AI

12:25

sector as a whole. It's semiconductor

12:27

stocks as a group. It's up over 6% just

12:30

yesterday and I see it as an interesting

12:32

opportunity right now given how much

12:34

volatility has happened in the market

12:36

already and how much of these stocks

12:38

have already pulled back tremendously.

12:40

There's been a huge V-shaped recovery

12:42

and that is in the broad index, not one

12:45

individual name. It was down a huge

12:47

amount over the past month. It's already

12:49

clawed back 6% in a single day. So,

12:51

maybe this news contributes to it, but

12:53

of course we also had the Fed meeting

12:55

yesterday, which now are impacting many

12:58

stocks. So, that seem like we've had a

12:59

bit of a relief rally on top of

13:01

everything. But that's the overall ETF.

13:03

If we look at individual stocks he held,

13:06

let's start off with Nvidia script. As I

13:07

said, he owned over 5% of the entire

13:10

company. Nvidia's is up 27% just

13:12

yesterday alone and that is absolutely

13:15

wild. A company can rally so much in a

13:18

single day. It just shows you how much

13:20

uncertainty we have in the market right

13:22

now and how much volatility. And

13:24

uncertainty and volatility is not only

13:26

bad, it can also be playing to the

13:28

strength and also the exact stock a lot.

13:31

Now, this is a stock that I'm investing

13:32

in. I still hold Nevius, although I

13:34

don't have as many shares as I have

13:36

because I ended up selling all of my

13:38

shares at actually $208 per share. And

13:40

in my challenge, I also bought put

13:41

options, so I made money on Nevius going

13:43

down. However, I only bought put options

13:45

around 250, and I ended up closing it at

13:48

240. So, I only played a very short-term

13:50

kind of fall in the stock. I did not

13:52

foresee it falling as much as it had

13:54

afterwards. And there's also Bloom

13:55

Energy. This is one of his big plays. He

13:57

called Bloom Energy very early, and it

14:00

became one of the biggest positions. Of

14:01

course, now he's been forced to sell all

14:04

of it, and just yesterday it's up 24%

14:06

very similar to the other AI stocks in

14:08

the market. One of the AI stocks that I

14:10

personally own, by the way, is I rent.

14:12

That's another stock that was up over

14:13

25%. Again, a massive rebound for the

14:16

entire AI sector. It really shows you

14:19

this guy was on top of the world when it

14:21

was coming to calling these investments

14:23

and picking these companies. But because

14:25

he got over-leveraged and because he

14:27

flew a bit too close to the sun, this is

14:29

what ends up happening. Nonetheless,

14:31

these stocks have seen a huge bounce.

14:33

Sandisk is another stock that was up

14:35

over 20% yesterday. So, all of these

14:37

names are seeing serious rebounds. And

14:39

then, we'll finish off with Sharon AI.

14:42

This is a much smaller company, only

14:43

about $1.8 billion market cap, and it

14:46

was one he famously bought into very

14:49

early. I think he ended up owning close

14:51

to 20% of the entire company. Again, it

14:53

looks like he was forced to sell his

14:55

assets very, very close to the bottom,

14:57

and that is pretty painful because he

14:59

most likely did not want to sell there.

15:01

But one thing I know for certain is if

15:03

you're playing AI stocks right now and

15:05

you understand option trading, you know

15:06

how to hedge your portfolio, there is a

15:08

lot of money to be made. In the link in

15:10

my description right now, you can

15:12

schedule a free call, and I have three

15:14

AI stocks that he owns that I believe

15:17

are the best buys right now. If you want

15:19

to learn about those three stocks, and

15:20

to build a portfolio, and you want to

15:22

position your portfolio to capitalize on

15:24

this volatility, then schedule a free

15:27

intro call into my Discord, learn about

15:29

the three stocks, and from there you can

15:31

see if you'd like further help, or you

15:32

can just implement the three stocks in

15:34

your portfolio. No pressure either way.

15:36

Go ahead and check that out right now in

15:37

the description. There's a lot of

15:39

opportunities in this market right now.

Interactive Summary

The video discusses the dramatic rise and fall of Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund run by 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner. The fund grew from a small startup to managing billions, driven by a highly concentrated, leverage-heavy strategy betting on AI infrastructure. However, when market conditions shifted and his positions, including major holdings like Nvidia and SK Hynix, faced pressure, the fund was forced into a massive liquidation of its public portfolio to meet margin calls, with Citadel acquiring the assets. The video highlights how the fund's extreme concentration and reliance on leverage turned a successful investment strategy into a catastrophic unwind.

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