How the Fastest Growing Hedge Fund in the World Just Lost Everything (Leopold Aschenbrenner)
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Today, I want to walk through one of the
craziest hedge fund stories that I've
heard of in years. This fund goes from
being one of the hottest names on Wall
Street, managing more than $20 billion,
posting incredible returns, and then
within just a few days, everything
completely falls apart. We're talking
about a guy who's 24 years old. Not long
ago, he was graduating college. 2 years
ago, he got fired from OpenAI, and by
this month, the fund that he built was
reportedly worth as much as $45 billion.
Then, on Thursday morning, it sold its
entire public portfolio. It liquidated
billions of dollars of longs in what one
CNBC reporter called one enormous trade.
And the firm that bought the whole
wreckage had Ken Griffin's Citadel. Now,
here's the thing. There's a clean
version of the story, and then there's
the conspiracy version of the story. I'm
going to give you both here in this
video today. I'm going to be honest with
you about which parts are confirmed and
which parts are people on the internet
connecting the dots on. So, let's get
right into it. For those that don't
know, Leopold Aschenbrenner was a former
OpenAI researcher. Before all of this,
he spent time at the philanthropy arm of
Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX. Yes, the same
FTX right before the collapse. Then, he
joined OpenAI, the company behind
ChatGPT, on their superintelligence
team, the group focused on AI safety. He
was fired in April of 2024. OpenAI said
it was over an alleged information leak,
but he disputes that. Here's where it
gets really interesting. 2 months after
getting fired, he published a 165-page
essay called Situational Awareness: The
Decade Ahead. His bet is that AGI, or
human-level artificial intelligence, is
coming around 2027, and the world isn't
ready for it. And whoever builds the
physical infrastructure for it makes an
absolute fortune. The essay went mega
viral. This essay I read completely over
an entire weekend where I spent 8 hours
reading it. And honestly, it was
something that shocked me as well. It
got taken seriously by tech CEOs and the
investors of the world. And then, he did
a thing that almost nobody does with a
viral manifesto. He turned it into a
hedge fund. Stories like this are pretty
crazy because you think that he would
know something that we don't. And it
definitely seems that way until he makes
a mistake as big as this one day and it
completely changes everything. So
anyways, the people backing his hedge
fund called Situational Awareness LP
were actually very intelligent,
well-known people. We're talking about
Collison brothers who founded Stripe,
former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman, and
investor Daniel Gross. Serious money
took him seriously. And to be fair, for
a while it worked spectacularly. Let's
talk about how the fund actually made
money cuz this is the whole story. The
strategy was pure concentration and AI
conviction. Instead of the obvious mega
cap names, the bets that he was making
on AI infrastructure were absolutely
genius given the AI buildout. The chips,
the memory, the data centers, and the
power. And it seemed like his timing was
just absolutely impeccable. It's like he
could time the market. And he was also
investing in the picks and shovels layer
underneath the whole AI boom. And the
concentration here is wild. According to
public filings, his single biggest
position was Nebius, ticker symbol NBIS,
a pure play AI cloud company spun out of
the old Yandex. And at one point, that
one stock was reportedly around 40% of
his entire portfolio. 40% in one name?
Why would someone this smart, with this
much experience, with this much
connections to, you know, inside people
who work in AI, and has worked in AI
himself, why would he not pay attention
to risk management? Does Leopold
Aeschlimann know something that the
general public doesn't? Well, his other
big disclosed holdings included SanDisk,
ticker symbol SNDX, the memory chip
maker, along with Micron, CoreWeave, and
SK Hynix in Korea. They're all
infrastructure names, all levered in the
same exact insane AI buildout thesis.
That concentration is the fuel, it's
also the bomb at the same time. When
your book is that lopsided, it's all on
the same bet, you don't really have a
portfolio. This is what I talk about a
lot on this channel. Guys, correlation,
it is extremely dangerous to hold
multiple stocks in your portfolio that
are heavily correlated. video exactly on
this coming out tomorrow, because having
multiple stocks does not mean that
you're protecting yourself. Because if
one goes up, the others go up, and you
might look like a genius, just like
Leopold Aeschlimann. He turned a couple
hundred million into many billions of
dollars. In fact, he had $13 billion in
profit, and that was only over a
15-month period. But if one goes down,
well, you can guess what will happen to
the rest. The others go down, too, and
all of a sudden your portfolio comes
crashing down. This is a catastrophic
example of it happening to Leopold
Aeschlimann in real time, right now. We
are witnessing a crash that we have not
really even seen. So, $45 billion,
that's what his fund was reported to
have reached at one point. I actually
heard on CNBC as well. They started this
year at around $3 billion, so the growth
was insane, and they were using options
as leverage as well. And when the fund
launched back in late 2024, it was only
around 225 million. So, look at the
growth up 45 billion dollars. Of course,
you have to be amazing at picking stocks
like he was, but you also have to have
some stacks and serious leverage on top
of that. It also feels to me that he may
have had information that is advantage
information. That's something that I
couldn't get my hands on, and neither
could you. And reportedly, he was
running around four times leverage. So,
going from 3 billion at the start of
this year up to 45 billion at one point,
those are ridiculous gains. But, the
leverage is what made them possible,
which means that when we saw the unwind,
and it has been a huge unwind in AI
stocks over the past month, he got hit
by it very hard and was forced to sell.
CNBC put it like this, "The battered
hedge fund founded founded by former
OpenAI researcher Leopold Bernauer is
unwinding many of its trades after big
losses on artificial intelligence
stocks. A bad against software stocks
left it scrambling to raise cash,
according to people familiar with the
matter." So, it sounds like he was also
shorting the software market, betting
against it. And of course, software has
actually been doing quite well,
especially compared to AI over the past
month. That's a nightmare scenario. You
lose all the long side of the book and
the short side at the same time. So, he
was completely wrong on direction, which
is really confusing since he's been so
right for over 15 months. What would
make him have losing month ever in the
last 30 days basically changes his
entire life story all in the public eye.
The prime broker for the fund, Goldman
Sachs, where I formerly used to work, as
well as JP Morgan and Bank of America,
have been rushing to raise cash to meet
margin requirements. And that's the
mechanism you have to understand here.
When your position starts to lose and
you're leveraged up, the broker may make
a margin call on you because they need
to cover their own behind. So, they tell
you to put up more cash right now or
they sell your positions for you whether
you like it or not. And that is a
tripwire. That's exactly what went off.
Situational Awareness sustained
significant losses in recent weeks as
its portfolio of AI infrastructure
investments such as SK Hynix declined
when short positions in software
companies such as Adobe moved sharply
against them. So, it seems like he had a
big position in SK Hynix as well. This
is company that only recently became
easily available to US investors and
they came in light on earnings and they
came in light on earnings versus what
people were expecting. So, that sell-off
likely contributed to the damage of his
portfolio. Now, SK Hynix is also very
interesting because you guys have
probably watched videos on the Korean
market. People in South Korea have
literally lost their entire life
fortunes including their houses betting
on the Korean market which is very
highly concentrated in just a few
stocks, SK Hynix being one of them. And
we're also going to go into some of the
stocks that he held big positions in
because while this drop-off hit a lot of
chip stocks and a lot of AI stocks
broadly, there were some that got hit
unusually hard and it does seem like he
may have been forced to sell those names
without actually wanting to which made
them decline even further. As we spoke
about, the fund grew to its biggest $45
billion at the start of July before the
big losses took hold. According to all
the research that I've been doing. So,
it just shows you the kind of situation
you can get yourself into if you're
using leverage. This guy was picking
some of the best companies in the entire
world and before Thursday's open on July
30th, it was all over for him. CNBC's
David Faber reported that the fund
exited all of his public investments in
a single block in one enormous trade.
And the buyer, per the Wall Street
Journal, was Ken Griffin's Citadel.
That's a familiar pattern for Citadel,
by the way. Stepping in to scoop up
assets when a leveraged player is being
forced to unwind. He is very
opportunistic, and he's always looking
for a fire sale. They already held some
of the same AI infrastructure names
themselves, which suggested that Griffin
thinks the sector recovers, and he just
has the balance sheet to wait it out.
Ashenbrenner didn't. Ashenbrenner is a
young man, despite making hundreds of
millions of dollars probably on a
personal level, and billions of dollars
for investors, he didn't have the
liquidity. One important clarification,
because there was a lot of confusion
about this. The fund was reportedly
negotiating around its private holdings,
too. A spokesperson said reports that it
was marketing a stake it owns in
Anthropic were not accurate. As it
stands, the private book stayed put.
Situational Awareness still holds its
Anthropic stake, reportedly valued at
around $5 billion. That's likely where
the focus goes for the time being. So,
this is a public equity wipeout, not a
total shutdown. The fund's assets were
reported to be somewhere around $10
billion now, down more than half. The
other big question is how much of the
recent selling pressure was him, because
there are companies here where he owned
massive stakes. Nvidia, for example, he
owned over a 5% position in the entire
company. So, if the fund was being
forced to offload that on the open
market to meet margin, that creates an
enormous amount of selling pressure in
one name. There's also a share in AI
where he owned a huge chunk. The fund's
largest holding at the end of the first
quarter included Nvidia, Sandisk,
Micron, and Palantir, according to
filings, and all four of those were down
more than 35% this month, some even
more. Nvidia, for example, was down 50%
from its all-time highs in just under
two months. That was really, really
rapid selling, and the size of the
fund's losses still haven't been fully
determined. I'm sure we're going to
learn a lot more about in the very near
future. Make sure you subscribe to this
channel because I'm going to be further
covering what's unfolding with this
story and how you can take advantage of
it as an AI investor. People are already
asking how it happened this fast that
over $40 billion at the start of the
month and for that to unwind in a matter
of weeks is a massive blowup. This is
actually kind of embarrassing from
someone who has made so many billions of
dollars. But at the same time, markets
are very volatile and anything is
possible in the market. It can surprise
even some of the best investors. Now,
let's take a look at some of the stocks
that he owned because we're seeing a
massive rebound at the moment. Every
time the stock market falls, there's
many opportunities. So, first off is the
VanEck Semiconductor ETF, ticker SMH.
I've been through this before, but it
basically is a good way to track the AI
sector as a whole. It's semiconductor
stocks as a group. It's up over 6% just
yesterday and I see it as an interesting
opportunity right now given how much
volatility has happened in the market
already and how much of these stocks
have already pulled back tremendously.
There's been a huge V-shaped recovery
and that is in the broad index, not one
individual name. It was down a huge
amount over the past month. It's already
clawed back 6% in a single day. So,
maybe this news contributes to it, but
of course we also had the Fed meeting
yesterday, which now are impacting many
stocks. So, that seem like we've had a
bit of a relief rally on top of
everything. But that's the overall ETF.
If we look at individual stocks he held,
let's start off with Nvidia script. As I
said, he owned over 5% of the entire
company. Nvidia's is up 27% just
yesterday alone and that is absolutely
wild. A company can rally so much in a
single day. It just shows you how much
uncertainty we have in the market right
now and how much volatility. And
uncertainty and volatility is not only
bad, it can also be playing to the
strength and also the exact stock a lot.
Now, this is a stock that I'm investing
in. I still hold Nevius, although I
don't have as many shares as I have
because I ended up selling all of my
shares at actually $208 per share. And
in my challenge, I also bought put
options, so I made money on Nevius going
down. However, I only bought put options
around 250, and I ended up closing it at
240. So, I only played a very short-term
kind of fall in the stock. I did not
foresee it falling as much as it had
afterwards. And there's also Bloom
Energy. This is one of his big plays. He
called Bloom Energy very early, and it
became one of the biggest positions. Of
course, now he's been forced to sell all
of it, and just yesterday it's up 24%
very similar to the other AI stocks in
the market. One of the AI stocks that I
personally own, by the way, is I rent.
That's another stock that was up over
25%. Again, a massive rebound for the
entire AI sector. It really shows you
this guy was on top of the world when it
was coming to calling these investments
and picking these companies. But because
he got over-leveraged and because he
flew a bit too close to the sun, this is
what ends up happening. Nonetheless,
these stocks have seen a huge bounce.
Sandisk is another stock that was up
over 20% yesterday. So, all of these
names are seeing serious rebounds. And
then, we'll finish off with Sharon AI.
This is a much smaller company, only
about $1.8 billion market cap, and it
was one he famously bought into very
early. I think he ended up owning close
to 20% of the entire company. Again, it
looks like he was forced to sell his
assets very, very close to the bottom,
and that is pretty painful because he
most likely did not want to sell there.
But one thing I know for certain is if
you're playing AI stocks right now and
you understand option trading, you know
how to hedge your portfolio, there is a
lot of money to be made. In the link in
my description right now, you can
schedule a free call, and I have three
AI stocks that he owns that I believe
are the best buys right now. If you want
to learn about those three stocks, and
to build a portfolio, and you want to
position your portfolio to capitalize on
this volatility, then schedule a free
intro call into my Discord, learn about
the three stocks, and from there you can
see if you'd like further help, or you
can just implement the three stocks in
your portfolio. No pressure either way.
Go ahead and check that out right now in
the description. There's a lot of
opportunities in this market right now.
Ask follow-up questions or revisit key timestamps.
The video discusses the dramatic rise and fall of Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund run by 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner. The fund grew from a small startup to managing billions, driven by a highly concentrated, leverage-heavy strategy betting on AI infrastructure. However, when market conditions shifted and his positions, including major holdings like Nvidia and SK Hynix, faced pressure, the fund was forced into a massive liquidation of its public portfolio to meet margin calls, with Citadel acquiring the assets. The video highlights how the fund's extreme concentration and reliance on leverage turned a successful investment strategy into a catastrophic unwind.
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