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The stock market crash coming our way could wipe 50% off share prices

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The stock market crash coming our way could wipe 50% off share prices

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428 segments

0:00

Oh, all right, guys. You know, let's uh

0:03

grab a drink. I don't know. Grab

0:05

whatever makes you feel better. Let's

0:07

talk about the market. Let's go through

0:09

my portfolio. I'm going to open up my

0:10

Rob Moon app. And you know what? I'm not

0:14

so much planned for this video. I just

0:16

want to kind of go over the hardships

0:18

many of us are facing so we can kind of

0:21

understand what's going on and what we

0:23

can potentially do about it. Here's my

0:26

portfolio. It's at 3.7 million and I

0:29

have lost Let's see what my one week is.

0:31

I'm down 4%. I'm down $156,000.

0:36

[sighs]

0:38

That sucks. That sucks. That's probably

0:40

one of my worst performances whole year.

0:43

This is really tough. But hey, is my

0:46

portfolio doing really bad compared to

0:48

where the market's at? Oh no. Let's see

0:51

what the S&P 500 is down. SPY.

0:55

Let's see what we have for the one week.

0:58

One week is down 1%. So, I'm actually

1:00

doing pretty bad. I'm doing really,

1:02

really bad. And why am I making this

1:04

video and why is this on video

1:06

unplanned? Well, I just want to give you

1:08

the honest truth, the raw truth of

1:10

what's going on in my portfolio and see

1:13

what we can learn from it. Here's some

1:15

of the positions that I have. I have

1:17

options. Obviously, my channel is mainly

1:20

about options. I've been trading for

1:22

over 12 years and

1:24

looks like option trading is uh fairly

1:27

risky. That's what it looks like. But

1:29

let's do some analysis here on what's

1:31

actually going on. Um we can see one of

1:33

my biggest losses actually Google. And

1:36

[laughter] I'm going to need a sip for

1:38

this one.

1:40

It's water, by the way. I don't drink. I

1:42

don't smoke. We're here just to make

1:44

some money. Google down $91,000 and I'm

1:48

actually running a sell put strategy on

1:51

Google and boy oh boy is Google

1:53

detracting in my portfolio.

1:56

It's one of the biggest pain points in

1:57

the portfolio but other than that it's

1:59

pretty pretty stable. All right, so my

2:02

biggest position is actually Walmart in

2:04

my community. We have done pretty well

2:07

on Walmart. When I opened up Walmart a

2:09

while ago it was what $71 per share.

2:13

We've been holding it. And every time I

2:14

have my Monday and Wednesday calls, I

2:16

say, "Guys, we don't have to be sexy. We

2:19

don't have to chase AI stocks. I know

2:21

there's a lot of YouTubers getting lots

2:23

of views on YouTube on some AI stocks

2:25

that are really hot, but guys, that's

2:28

fine. We can have a portion of our

2:30

portfolio in something that's hot. Let's

2:32

have a bigger portion and what's more

2:34

stable." All right. Right. So, I'm a fan

2:35

of stability and I'd argue that my

2:37

portfolio, although down for the week

2:39

4%, which is sucks, is actually pretty

2:43

decent compared to um just a lot of

2:46

these tech stocks that are down like

2:48

double digits. Just crazy crashes in the

2:51

market. So much money is being wiped

2:53

out. And I'm not going to give you a

2:56

whole kind of spiel on why that's

2:58

happening or or what's why they're

3:00

losing so much. I'm sure you've already

3:02

watched other YouTube videos. This is

3:04

more so on how I'm managing my own

3:06

portfolio and sharing with you how I

3:08

view this. So I'm opening up my

3:10

portfolio just to look at it myself

3:12

first time today because it's a Friday

3:14

and I had Monday and Wednesday coaching

3:16

calls and on Friday I like to not look

3:18

at the portfolio because I have noticed

3:21

and I studied finance. The more you look

3:23

at your portfolio and the more you try

3:25

to trade the worse results you end up

3:27

getting because you overtrade and you do

3:29

too much and you end up panic selling.

3:31

So, I see some of my positions down, but

3:34

I'm man, I'm not doing anything about it

3:37

because there's nothing to do about it.

3:40

I have highquality companies. For

3:42

example, Walmart as the first one here.

3:45

I'm up 47,000. I mean, not long ago, I

3:47

was up over $500 something,000 on it,

3:50

but I'm not making any changes.

3:52

Actually, it's interesting. I have a

3:54

covered call at 110 and now it's out of

3:57

the money. Wow. It's out of the money

3:58

now. 7% down on Walmart. insane. But

4:01

yeah, Walmart hasn't been a huge

4:03

detracting factor in the community at

4:05

all. Walmart has been pretty stable.

4:07

Let's kind of go through more of the

4:08

positions that I have. Amazon. Now,

4:11

Amazon, I have $650,000.

4:13

So, that's a pretty large position, of

4:16

course, and I'm actually up on the

4:18

position, doing pretty well. 33K on the

4:21

options as well. So, this is this is

4:24

actually one of my better positions I'm

4:25

very happy with. I'm going to continue

4:26

to hold Amazon. Keep going here into

4:29

Palunteer. Palanteer 123. I think

4:31

Palanteer is cheap. 9 days left, guys,

4:34

until Palanteer has their Q2 earnings.

4:37

So, I bought Palunteer IPO and I'm still

4:41

holding it. I've had Palunteer IPO in my

4:43

Roth IRA, which my personal Roth IRA, I

4:46

started with like 10K is now at 100K.

4:49

It's a really small Roth IRA that I

4:51

have, nothing huge, but pounds here did

4:56

really well if you're an early investor.

4:58

And I want to just say like if you're

5:00

late, if you're late to the party and

5:02

you know you just started investing

5:03

recently, you're a beginner or maybe

5:05

you've been investing for a while, you

5:06

started putting more money to work

5:07

recently and the market pulled back and

5:09

you're feeling a lot of pain. I feel

5:10

you. We're all feeling pain together and

5:13

that's fine. The market's not supposed

5:15

to get all of us wealthy overnight. That

5:17

doesn't happen. It's supposed to take

5:19

time and if you do the smart moves, if

5:22

you have the proper asset allocation, if

5:23

you have the proper risk management,

5:24

it's not really a problem. I'm not so

5:26

concerned here being down 4% because I

5:29

know I'm going to make it back. I know

5:30

I'm going to make back in a pretty short

5:33

amount of time. Honestly, as long as the

5:35

market doesn't crash, of course, there's

5:36

a risk the market crashes further, but

5:38

I'm not going to watch a ton of videos

5:39

and try to like predict the future or,

5:42

you know, just read the news all the

5:44

time. It's not going to help, right?

5:45

Stock market goes up longterm. That's

5:47

all you have to know. Don't try to

5:49

predict anything short term. If you guys

5:51

are like watching a ton of videos and

5:53

you're trying to see what's going on in

5:54

Korea, which is which is crazy actually,

5:56

genuinely crazy how a lot of people had

5:58

a margin call in Korea because they all

6:00

bet on their two biggest stocks, right?

6:02

They have two stocks in their stock

6:05

market essentially that makes up like

6:07

67% of their market. But, you know,

6:10

we're not going to be in that position

6:11

if we're not being dumb about it. If we

6:13

have 10 to 15 stocks, which is what I

6:15

teach, I teach having a diversified

6:16

portfolio and then selling options for

6:19

premium. If you have that and the

6:22

market's down, we're all down together.

6:25

It's not like, okay, if you're down an

6:27

unreasonable amount versus the market,

6:29

that's a you problem. That means you've

6:31

done something wrong. But if you're down

6:33

a couple percentage points and the

6:34

market's down a couple percentage

6:35

points, that's normal. That's just

6:37

correlation. Everyone's going to be

6:39

down. So, I'm not concerned. you

6:41

shouldn't be concerned about that and

6:43

there's hope that you're going to do

6:44

pretty well in the near future. So, I'm

6:46

kind of trying to be your your therapist

6:48

here in a way to say don't overtrade and

6:52

don't panic and don't sell. Honestly,

6:54

buy the dip. If you have cash, buy the

6:57

dip. It's that simple. Just buy the dip

7:00

in high quality companies. I like

7:02

Palance here a lot. 9 days left here.

7:05

Great. Looks great to me that in 9 days

7:08

they're going to report earnings and I

7:10

think they're going to absolutely crush.

7:12

So over the last 3 months the stock is

7:14

down and they actually had a really huge

7:16

bounce from $17 per share. I told my

7:19

members to buy. They bought. So we're

7:22

happy with Palance here. 122 it's down a

7:24

little bit. We're not, you know, happy

7:26

today, but we're happy overall and we're

7:28

going to be happy here long term. So got

7:32

a whole lot of SoFi. 10,500 shares of

7:34

SoFi down 48k in the position, but I've

7:38

generated so much premium I' I've lost

7:40

track at this point. You see the total

7:42

return I have on options 8,200.

7:45

I've literally sold so many covered

7:47

calls. I don't know what I clicked

7:49

there, but I've literally sold so many

7:51

covered calls on SoFi that um I might

7:55

very well be breaking even on this

7:57

specific position. And I've already

8:00

taken profit on SoFi multiple times. So,

8:02

I'm going to guess I'm probably

8:04

somewhere around break even on SoFi. So,

8:07

again, like I'm not super concerned

8:09

because what's going to happen with

8:10

SoFi, mark my words, 3 months from now,

8:13

hey, maybe it's at $17.50 has done

8:16

nothing. Well, that's fine because I'm

8:18

an option seller. When I collect premium

8:20

and I sell options like this 19 covered

8:23

call, I'm up 64% on it. I have $4,620 to

8:28

go. So in August, if SoFi is trading for

8:30

like $17 per share, fine. Sure. I don't

8:34

have to hit a home run. The whole point

8:36

is I'm not trying to take my portfolio

8:38

to some astronomically high amount by

8:41

taking on crazy amounts of risk. I'm

8:43

just looking to outperform the market.

8:45

That's my personal goal. I'm looking for

8:47

something that's stable, for something

8:48

that's consistent, and I want to beat

8:50

the market because obviously like if I

8:51

just invest in S&P 500 or ETFs or

8:54

dividend stocks, I want to be able to

8:55

beat that, right? because I'm actively

8:57

I'm actively trading. I'm not that

8:59

active, but I'm doing, you know, weekly

9:01

trades and monthly trades in my

9:02

community and I am, you know, we can say

9:05

actively trading, right? I'm not crazy

9:07

actively trading, but I am actively

9:09

trading. So, my goal is to to beat the

9:11

market and I've been able to do that for

9:13

a very significant amount of time. Maybe

9:15

it was a little bit easier before. I

9:17

don't know. I think there's going to be

9:18

plenty of opportunities to be honest.

9:20

So, I just want to share that if you're

9:22

feeling down right now, if you're

9:23

feeling bad, like there's hope. Just

9:25

because the market is down shortterm

9:27

doesn't mean anything. You know how

9:28

people's emotions are like a roller

9:29

coaster? You guys literally know that.

9:32

Like every time the market pulls down,

9:35

everyone's like, "Oh, this time's

9:36

different and the market's crashing and

9:37

stocks are overvalued." Guys, the

9:39

market's not really overvalued. The PE

9:41

ratio of the S&P 500 is pretty

9:43

reasonable. So, we're not really

9:45

overvalued. So, whenever we see like a

9:47

downswing, unless the PE ratio is like

9:50

20 30% overvalued, which it's not, then

9:54

any pullback is really just an

9:55

opportunity. So yeah, that's SoFi.

9:58

Google is really difficult because

10:01

Google just had negative cash flow for

10:04

their first um time like really like I

10:07

want to say ever, but it's not ever, but

10:09

it's like the first negative cash flow

10:10

they've had I think in a decade. Don't

10:13

quote me on that, but it's like around

10:14

like a decade or so. It's because of all

10:17

their AI spending. They spent so much

10:19

money on AI um and data centers and

10:22

stuff like that. So, the stock is down

10:24

to 319 and I've given back a significant

10:28

amount of my gains. I have a,000 shares.

10:30

I have a $319,000 market value. But when

10:34

Google was trading here for $400 per

10:37

share, I was like $80,000 richer. But

10:40

I'm not complaining. I still think

10:42

Google's going to be $400 again. And I

10:45

can't time the market. I don't want to

10:46

be like Michael Bur who predicts 27 of

10:49

the last three crashes, right? It's a

10:52

funny joke. You get it? He He predicted

10:55

27, but only three happened, right? So,

10:58

don't listen to the bears. All the bears

10:59

are like, "Oh, this time's different.

11:01

There's going to be a market crash." No,

11:03

no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Bears make

11:05

money. They can make money if they're

11:07

good at timing. But bulls also make

11:10

money, and that's much more stable to be

11:12

bull.

11:13

So, I'd rather be a bull. Um, oh, let me

11:17

go back to Google. So, Google, we see

11:19

the 370 put option is super in the

11:23

money. Super in the money. And I've been

11:26

selling options. Um, and by the way, I'm

11:28

not a financial adviser cuz what I'm

11:30

going to say is going to be kind of

11:31

risky. So, I'm not a financial adviser.

11:33

This is just educational purposes only.

11:36

But I personally use margin. Okay? I

11:39

like margin. And I've been also using it

11:41

with my one-on-one students. I have

11:42

one-on-one students who basically

11:44

message me. They have my phone number.

11:46

They can message me anytime they want

11:48

and we fill up their portfolio. We

11:50

allocate their capital and I'm there to

11:52

support them throughout their journey.

11:54

And I'll be honest with you, a lot of

11:55

the times I like to use partners. I like

11:58

to sell puts on margin just like this

12:00

because I don't actually personally have

12:01

the cash to take assignment here. Okay?

12:03

And I'm not going to go too deep into

12:04

detail here, but I'm just letting you

12:06

know that this position right here is

12:09

pretty dang massive. It is it is very

12:11

massive. like I need to take a sip of

12:13

water here and I want you to just

12:15

calculate the math. Just just do the

12:17

math right now. All right. So, what is

12:19

the math that you did? Well, one

12:21

contract of Google is $37,000.

12:24

That means that 10 contracts is 370K. I

12:27

sold 40 puts here. Okay. So, that's what

12:30

that's like 600 1.2 mil and then 70 * 4

12:34

is 280. So, it's like 1,480,000

12:38

that I personally don't have. So, I'm

12:41

doing something risky, but I've been

12:42

doing this for over a decade and just

12:45

going to manage this as it approaches

12:46

September 18. I know exactly what to do.

12:49

So, if I'm on $1.5 million that I don't

12:52

even have that's above my market value,

12:55

like above my portfolio value, and I'm

12:58

not really that concerned, you know,

13:00

it's really a confidence thing. It's

13:02

understanding what you're doing. The

13:03

market being down is not really the

13:06

issue. It's how you manage the market

13:07

being down. And by the way, I've seen

13:10

some comments like, "Oh, Henry's, you

13:11

know, wrong all the time and stuff." But

13:13

I take money out of my portfolio

13:15

consistently on a monthly basis because

13:17

I use it for living expenses and I

13:18

travel. You guys have seen throughout

13:20

the years my background changes a lot

13:22

cuz I'm traveling. I'm donating money.

13:25

I'm Yeah, I'm spending a good amount of

13:27

money to to, you know, have a decent

13:29

lifestyle and my portfolio has been very

13:32

stable. Anyways, not to ramble on. I

13:35

don't want to waste any time here. I'm

13:36

not concerned that I might get assigned

13:38

here because I know how to manage this.

13:40

Okay, that's the whole kind of story I'm

13:41

trying to get at. Um, all right. So,

13:43

let's go into the next kind of stocks

13:45

that I have. I have really small

13:46

positions on some of these, so I'm not

13:47

going to go into that. But, I will go to

13:49

Meta because Meta is a pretty I would

13:51

say larger Yeah, it is a large position.

13:53

It's like 8% of my total kind of

13:55

portfolio here. So, it's a it's a big

13:57

position for me. I'm down $16,000 and I

14:00

have a couple of long call options. And

14:03

actually my call options were doing

14:05

pretty well last time I checked. Let me

14:07

go into the 600 call option here. 600

14:10

call option. Okay. Yeah. No, no, this

14:12

one was the one that was down. The 580

14:13

I'm up on. Oo, but it eroded a lot as

14:17

well. So anyways, I've given back a good

14:18

amount because I was up significantly on

14:20

this position even just a couple days

14:22

ago for my Wednesday coaching session.

14:24

And now just taking a look at things,

14:25

man. Pretty difficult. Pretty difficult,

14:28

huh? NBIS. This is uh actually $200 per

14:32

share I think is fair value. So I kind

14:34

of like it here, but it has the craziest

14:36

implied volatility ever. Has like

14:38

literally insane volatility. That's a

14:40

good thing for an option seller again.

14:41

So I think there's a lot of opportunity

14:43

with NBIS. I ran oo I ran down 20% in

14:47

the month. I have negative 15% and then

14:50

I have some covered calls which are

14:53

down. Honestly, this is probably one of

14:56

the more difficult times that I've seen

14:57

other than co such a big market. I

15:00

honestly call it pretty much like a

15:02

crash specifically because all these AI

15:04

stocks are crashing. But again, I'm not

15:07

too concerned. Anyways, here's kind of

15:09

like the moral of the story. Don't be

15:11

too concerned with the stock market. If

15:12

I have $1.5 million in Google exposure

15:14

that I don't even have cash to buy and

15:16

I'm not even concerned, I have SoFi, I

15:19

have Palanteer, I have a lot of the

15:20

stocks I talk about on this channel. I

15:22

haven't sold any of the stocks and I'm

15:24

very confident that I'm going to be

15:25

fine. I have no concerns. I'm $1.5

15:28

million at more risk than probably

15:31

anyone watching my video right now. So,

15:34

don't be concerned. Just have a

15:35

long-term perspective. Buy the right

15:37

stocks. If you need more support, I

15:40

don't know, message me, email me, join

15:42

my Discord. I'd be happy to support you.

15:45

But honestly, it's not about watching

15:46

more videos or taking more action. It's

15:48

actually about doing less. So, hope that

15:51

helps. And thanks for watching. If you

15:53

enjoyed this video, subscribe and I'll

15:55

see you in the next one.

Interactive Summary

The video creator provides an honest, raw look at his personal portfolio during a difficult market week where he experienced a 4% decline. Despite the losses and the risks associated with his heavy use of margin and options trading, he remains calm and confident in his long-term strategy. He emphasizes the importance of avoiding panic, resisting the urge to overtrade, and focusing on holding high-quality, stable companies rather than chasing volatile AI trends.

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