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Inside the GLP-1 Gold Rush: Eli Lilly CEO on New Breakthroughs, Addiction & Mental Health, Pricing

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Inside the GLP-1 Gold Rush: Eli Lilly CEO on New Breakthroughs, Addiction & Mental Health, Pricing

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935 segments

0:00

[Music]

0:01

GLP-1 drugs have become increasingly

0:04

popular. Eli Liy coming to save us here

0:06

>> has had its market capitalization

0:09

increase by about 860% since he became

0:13

CEO and the stock price is up a little

0:16

bit more than a,000%.

0:18

>> No need for needles. Eli Liy says it has

0:20

a pill.

0:21

>> Eli Liy's experimental pill appears to

0:24

work as well as the injected drug.

0:26

>> It's everyone's job to move the science.

0:28

We should always be pushing forward.

0:31

[Music]

0:33

>> Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Eli

0:37

Liy CEO Dave Ricks.

0:43

[Music]

0:48

How are you?

0:50

>> Hi, David. Good to see you. Good to see

0:52

you. How are you? How are you,

0:53

>> Dave? All right.

0:56

>> You want to say thank you? I just want

0:58

to

0:59

>> Dave.

1:00

>> Yes.

1:00

>> I don't want to make it awkward.

1:03

>> Well, we were sitting here three years

1:04

ago on this pod and Chimath was calling

1:06

me a fat bastard.

1:08

>> He wasn't wrong. I was 213 lbs. I'm

1:11

afelt

1:13

172 right. Awesome.

1:16

>> And it's because of what you've done.

1:18

>> Thank you.

1:19

>> Can I give you a hug?

1:20

>> You can. Yeah. Bring it in here. Bring

1:21

it in here.

1:22

>> I appreciate it.

1:22

>> Congratulations. That's

1:23

>> also Sax lost 20 pounds. So together

1:25

we've lost a Freedberg. That's actually

1:28

my husband. Come on.

1:29

>> Nice. Nice.

1:32

>> How much money are you guys printing? My

1:34

lord.

1:36

>> What do you do with it? You have

1:37

wheelbarrels. What do you do with Can I

1:39

please start?

1:40

>> Yes. Go ahead. Okay. Sorry. I got four

1:42

more jokes. I'll get them in the end.

1:43

>> Um I mean you really have built one of

1:46

the most incredible business in America,

1:48

but you've done it because you took an

1:50

enormous bet long time ago.

1:52

>> Yeah. Um, do you want to talk us through

1:55

the journey and the process you had to

1:59

go through and what you saw early on and

2:01

um, how you made the bet on this class

2:03

of drug?

2:04

>> Yeah, great. And thanks for having me

2:05

here. I'm trying to up my cool factor.

2:07

That's what they tell me in M Midwest I

2:09

need to do.

2:10

>> Can you get a Tomas Ford uh, suit as

2:12

well?

2:12

>> No, I'm actually disappointed in the in

2:14

the ties. Like that's I don't know.

2:16

That's not

2:17

>> You and I are you and I guy wears ties.

2:19

>> Dave Suit Supply does a great job. Just

2:21

own it. Okay, there we go. Just donate.

2:23

Okay, so uh yeah, GLP1 drugs, we all

2:26

know about it. It feels like an

2:27

overnight success, but what what

2:28

happened? You know, drug development is

2:31

hard and long and requires a fair amount

2:34

of failure and discipline, a huge amount

2:36

of capital. So, actually in 2006, we

2:39

launched the first GLP-1 drug. Nobody

2:41

really knew the name of it. It was a

2:43

twice a day injection for diabetes, but

2:45

the cover of our annual report uh in

2:47

2007 had a lady on it and she said

2:50

there's a quote. It says, "Oh, my

2:51

diabetes is under control and I'm losing

2:52

a little bit of weight." So, that was 18

2:55

years ago. I mean, and since that time,

2:58

we're now we've been inventing new

3:00

versions of that, solving various

3:02

problems with that twice a day. We

3:04

wanted to make it more convenient.

3:05

Needed to get the dose up and people

3:06

tended to lose weight, more weight when

3:08

you when you got the dose up. And then

3:11

tzepide which um you ask how much money

3:14

we're making but in actually in Q2 we

3:15

reported uh global sales which surpassed

3:18

Kitruda to becoming the bestselling drug

3:20

in the world. Actually the bests selling

3:21

drug in the world of all time in Q2 this

3:24

year.

3:24

>> How much did it make in Q2?

3:26

>> We 8.1 billion in revenue

3:29

>> and growing at 80%. Yeah.

3:32

>> And and how many people are on a GLP1

3:34

globally now?

3:35

>> I'd estimate around 20 million take

3:38

prescription GLP1s. some unknown amount

3:41

of people take nonprescription. But

3:43

anyway, so

3:44

>> that would be compounding

3:45

>> compounded or synthetic.

3:47

>> Yeah. Or just like not for human use. We

3:50

can talk about all that. Yeah. So

3:51

anyway, um 2014 comes along. Uh four

3:55

scientists at Lily decided to combine

3:56

GLP-1 with another peptide that your

3:59

stomach produces when you eat that's

4:01

appetite suppressing. They made the

4:03

single molecule culture. That's what's

4:05

Mjaro now. But that happened in 2014.

4:08

2016 I be I was named a CEO and I got a

4:11

call that fall and one of our chief

4:13

scientists called me and said hey we're

4:15

we have to stop an early phase study for

4:17

tepatide that's usually a bad call so

4:19

I'm like ah like this is the followup to

4:22

our second gen version of the GLP1 he

4:24

said no no it's actually good good news

4:26

we were running this study in Singapore

4:28

with healthy male volunteers you can

4:31

imagine what a healthy male Singaporean

4:33

looks like at baseline right they're

4:36

they're not overweight And we had to

4:38

stop the study because they were losing

4:40

too much weight too quickly. They were

4:42

basically not eating. So scientists like

4:45

actually it's good news. We can tune the

4:48

dose down. We can work with this. And

4:50

from there it was kind of just just

4:52

execution. We knew it was going to be

4:54

huge. And we started building out supply

4:57

chain, building out factories, running a

5:00

massive clinical program. We currently

5:02

have over a hundred clinical studies

5:04

with the medicine going on for all kinds

5:06

of other uses as well, not just slowing

5:08

down.

5:08

>> We're going to go there in one sec, but

5:10

I just want to go back to this. So the

5:12

problem now, and maybe you can comment

5:15

on this, is you have this enormous

5:16

success.

5:17

>> Yeah.

5:18

>> There is a very active gray market,

5:22

particularly in China, peptide

5:24

synthesis, that are producing drugs that

5:27

are basically the equivalent of your

5:28

drugies,

5:29

>> working around copies. Y

5:31

>> um talk to us about that. How do you

5:33

deal with that and what do you do about

5:34

that and what should people do about

5:36

that and when they encounter it?

5:38

>> Yeah, it's an unusual situation. I think

5:40

there's always been counterfeit

5:41

medicines. We're not used to it in the

5:44

United States because we one have a for

5:47

most people a pretty good system to

5:50

subsidize some of the benefit via the

5:52

insurance markets. So there's not a lot

5:54

of incentive to go outside the system.

5:56

That's different for these drugs because

5:58

insurance quality is poor. or most I

6:00

don't know if you bought out of your own

6:01

pocket but most people have um and so

6:03

>> did you pay out of pocket?

6:04

>> Well, interestingly when I first got it

6:06

four years ago I had this revelation

6:08

when I was in forto de Mar and um I had

6:11

heard Tim Ferrris talk about it on his

6:14

podcast with a friend of mine Kevin Rose

6:16

and I went to my doctor and I said hey I

6:18

want to get on this. He said what is

6:19

that? He said oh no you don't need that.

6:20

That's for people who are diabetic.

6:21

You're not even pre-diabetic. I said no

6:23

I want to do it for weight loss. It's

6:24

off market.

6:25

>> He said I don't know if I can do that. I

6:26

said I'm going to get a different doctor

6:27

if you don't. and he said, "Let me try."

6:29

>> Yeah.

6:30

>> And he got it on prescription. After I

6:32

lost 20 pounds and my BMI got below 30,

6:35

which really, I mean, I don't want to

6:36

get emotional, but I got three

6:37

daughters. I want to stick around. And

6:39

it really changed my life incredibly.

6:41

>> And in in many ways, I was embarrassed

6:43

that I couldn't have the discipline to

6:45

do it. And then I realized there was a

6:47

food noise that I had that was

6:49

constantly screaming. And once I cycled

6:52

off of it for many months and now I'm on

6:54

extremely low dose, the food noise and

6:56

my discipline has come back. There's

6:58

something about a certain moment where

7:00

you get too far over it. So now I I do

7:02

have to pay for

7:04

drug.

7:04

>> Yes.

7:05

>> You've always Yeah. And I I think you

7:08

know the the question I have for you

7:10

about this big picture is

7:12

>> there's a lot of demand for it. It is

7:14

still a bit too expensive. You're wildly

7:16

profitable. This going to be a pill

7:18

format. I think you're

7:19

>> Yeah, that's ours. That's coming next

7:21

year.

7:21

>> So, is there some thinking when your,

7:24

you know, head hits the pillow, hey, I'm

7:26

having such a profound impact on so many

7:28

people's lives that all of the diseases

7:31

we have are downstream of obesity. We

7:33

know that this thing is helping with

7:35

many other things.

7:36

>> Do you have a moral imperative to bring

7:39

this down, you know, 50% in price? I

7:42

would think you that must weigh on your

7:44

conscience that it's too expensive and

7:46

you're too profitable in a way and

7:47

there's shareholders who want you to

7:49

print money but there are lives at stake

7:50

here and there's longevity and there's

7:52

health span so maybe unpack that.

7:54

>> Yeah, we're committed to bringing the

7:55

pricing down and I want to come back to

7:56

the supply situation because that led to

7:58

some of the compounding but also affects

8:00

pricing. Um you know we've we've led in

8:03

reducing the out-of- pocket costs but

8:05

from it was originally $1,000 now it's

8:07

$4.99 from us. Um, we'll push that down

8:09

further with new medicines like orals.

8:11

>> What's the goal for orals?

8:13

>> The the main goal is to get it

8:14

reimbured. Why is it we pay for

8:16

anti-hypertensive drugs that the moment

8:18

you stop taking them, you have the same

8:19

exact risk as before, but we don't pay

8:21

for anti-obesity drugs? That makes no

8:23

sense to me. Why do we pay for surgeries

8:25

that don't work, but we don't pay for

8:27

these?

8:27

>> What's the number on the pill? What's

8:28

the target? You can tell us.

8:30

>> Yeah, I don't have a target in my mind,

8:31

but lower is the direction. We've told

8:34

we've told the street expect singledigit

8:36

deflation in this category over time.

8:38

>> 5% a year it goes down

8:40

>> uh or more. Yeah.

8:41

>> Or more. 10%. So you get it down from

8:43

5%.

8:43

>> But here's here's the risk Jason is if

8:45

if we cut the price to say I don't know

8:47

$100, there will be no more new

8:50

medicines in this category.

8:51

>> Okay?

8:52

>> Because we'll have snuffed out

8:53

essentially the incentive to create the

8:55

next thing

8:56

>> R&D.

8:57

>> So we have to balance that. We want to

8:58

create the next better medicine. We

9:00

spend 25% of sales on R&D. This year

9:02

that'll be 14.2 2 billion. Wow.

9:04

>> That has to get paid for paid for

9:07

through revenue.

9:07

>> So, so with the cash flow that the

9:09

business is generating, is that how you

9:10

think about capital allocation? Some

9:12

percent to R&D, some percent I'm

9:14

assuming, to capex and supply chain

9:16

durability,

9:17

>> some percent maybe to buybacks. I mean,

9:19

how do you think about where the capital

9:20

should be allocated? And maybe on the

9:22

R&D side, you can tell us a little bit

9:24

about diversification and and how else

9:26

you think about deploying capital.

9:28

>> Yeah. Well, I think we're we've had this

9:30

totally asymmetric uh success. So what

9:33

do we do with it? I think one version of

9:34

it is to sort of play out the cash flow

9:37

game, return it to shareholders and

9:39

return at some future date remembering

9:41

that in pharma all our we have no

9:42

enduring franchise. Everything we make

9:44

goes to zero because of the patent

9:46

system. So in 2030 something Mjaro will

9:49

go to zero.

9:50

>> Yeah.

9:50

>> And so should we think about our company

9:53

as one that will just return to the

9:54

previous baseline, send all that money

9:56

back to our shareholders who took that

9:58

risk over 15, 20 years with us and pay

10:00

them back. That's a little bit like I

10:02

don't know how kind of Apple is running

10:04

their company, right? Yeah. And

10:06

>> that's viable. That's great for

10:08

shareholders. I And at Lily, we think

10:10

about our job a little differently. We

10:12

want to create a solution to some other

10:14

problem people have. And we think we're

10:16

good at that and can uniquely do it. So,

10:18

we should try.

10:19

>> We should not try to no end. That's

10:21

wasteful. You can just bury all that

10:23

money. And that's sort of the history of

10:24

the industry is people have found

10:26

success. Wasted money. they go back to

10:29

the baseline anyway, but the

10:30

shareholders don't get rewarded. That's

10:31

the So, we're we're running this

10:34

experiment now. We're betting a lot on

10:36

organic R&D buildout. We currently have

10:37

about 4,200 PhD scientists at Lily, by

10:41

the way. That's about the same as MIT

10:43

and Harvard combined.

10:45

>> So, the scale of the science enterprise

10:46

is huge.

10:47

>> How do you Dave, how do you push people

10:48

on the risk spectrum? There's a tragedy

10:50

of riches that can happen because you're

10:53

so successful. There's this one drug.

10:56

There could be like some emergent

10:57

scientist in your organization who wants

10:59

to take a long shot but then just

11:01

doesn't feel motivated because like h

11:03

it's just like this is not going to do

11:04

anything. Yeah.

11:05

>> How do you get that person unlocked so

11:07

that they go for the big moonshots?

11:08

>> You mean that their idea isn't big

11:09

enough to matter.

11:10

>> They think that but they may not know

11:11

and they may stumble in a different

11:12

path.

11:13

>> I don't think that's our bigger problem.

11:14

I think in big companies in general and

11:16

pharma companies maybe in particular the

11:18

bigger problem is people thinking they

11:20

have a big idea but having no way to

11:22

advance it. Right.

11:23

>> So I'm trying to work on that side which

11:25

is if you think you have something that

11:26

could be big, how does it become easier

11:28

>> to advance your idea in our company

11:30

versus leaving us and raising money in

11:31

venture? We can talk about venture and

11:33

biotech in a second because it's totally

11:35

totally broken broken right now. But um

11:37

anyway back to David's question. So

11:38

first priority invest in organic R&D.

11:40

Secondly build out the supply chain.

11:43

What's different about MARO and the

11:45

following drugs is they're injectable

11:47

drugs. These are very capital intensive

11:49

technically difficult things to scale.

11:51

We've committed with President Trump uh

11:54

to build all that in the US. We're

11:55

currently constructing six plants. We're

11:58

going to announce four more in the next

11:59

6 months. I was hoping to be able to

12:01

announce one today, but that'll come in

12:02

a few weeks. So, yeah, this is creating

12:06

um 20,000 construction jobs in this

12:08

period and ultimately five or six

12:10

thousand manufacturing jobs. Um and so

12:14

we'll become a net exporter at scale for

12:16

these. And unless some Chinese

12:18

stateowned enterprise gets in this

12:19

business, it'll be very hard for others

12:21

to build that out and follow.

12:23

>> Well, they're doing in the car business.

12:24

So,

12:25

>> yeah, if they're determined, they might.

12:27

But then the final is is actually to buy

12:29

external innovation where it makes sense

12:30

to tuck it in.

12:32

>> And maybe that leads us to market. You

12:34

just you bought that gene therapy,

12:35

right?

12:36

>> Yeah. We recently bought a gene therapy

12:37

company in in June. We can talk about

12:39

that. But um we're doing a deal about

12:42

every two weeks. Most of them are

12:44

smallish. Biotech funding right now is a

12:47

is in a dumpster fire. U peak got to

12:50

about 20 billion in new checks a year

12:52

into biotech. We're now around five.

12:55

>> Um and

12:56

>> just just walk walk the audience through

12:58

the dynamics. So why is biotech

13:00

cratered? Why is it so hard for capital

13:03

to flow back in? What's what are the

13:04

dynamics that are that are that are

13:06

driving this market condition right now?

13:07

many factors but the first one is

13:10

competition for other venture ideas

13:11

driven by the industry you guys are in

13:14

right so there's just a crowd out going

13:16

on with AI and other things that if it

13:18

your cycle time to return is just more

13:21

visible or faster

13:22

>> biotech is hard and slow um secondly I

13:26

think too many biotechs IPOed in the

13:28

last decade and so the liquidity market

13:31

has sort of collapsed because there's a

13:32

lot of investors deeply underwater half

13:35

of biotech that's publicly traded is

13:37

trading at or below cash,

13:39

>> right?

13:39

>> So

13:41

investors look at that and say, "What's

13:42

my future here?"

13:43

>> Yeah.

13:44

>> It's unless you can really analyze the

13:46

technology and take a differentiated bet

13:48

on the drugs they're working on. I think

13:50

general investors don't want to

13:52

participate in that.

13:53

>> And then you have China, which is the

13:55

other factor, right? So China is

13:57

investing heavily like they do every

13:58

other stateowned thing. They're

14:00

subsidizing their own companies. They

14:02

have like a swarm model here where

14:04

they'll subsidize many small things

14:06

really against followon ideas betting

14:09

they can execute faster than us. Um it's

14:11

a national priority for a long time.

14:13

>> Can you talk about issue there the

14:15

patent and IP issue? So in the US you

14:18

know when we make a filing and what goes

14:19

on with respect to China they don't

14:20

respect any of our IP do they? Well, I

14:23

think right now they they are okay

14:27

amongst so if I have a patent and I file

14:29

and launch a product, I don't see

14:30

immediate copies because it's in their

14:33

interest to have a patent system right

14:34

now for the reason you're raising. So we

14:37

um changed the patent laws in the US in

14:38

2011 I think the American vents act

14:40

where it's first to file. It used to be

14:42

first to invent and all the pat

14:45

litigation we had was all about whose

14:47

lab notebook said January 5th versus

14:50

January 4th on this invention. that was

14:52

the case not did you file it in a

14:54

reasonable time but did you invent it

14:55

first now it's first to file so there's

14:56

no question about who we don't care who

14:58

invented it first it's just who got into

14:59

the patent office as a consequence of

15:01

that our biotech companies and big

15:03

companies like Lily Fizer etc we file as

15:05

soon as we can because we don't get beat

15:07

on first to file what does that do it a

15:09

patent exposes the invention to the

15:11

world China's getting very good at

15:13

patent hacking so what they do is they

15:15

look at that chemical structure they

15:17

work backwards sometimes driven by AI

15:19

algorithms to find chemical structure

15:21

that will behave similarly but are

15:23

outside the patent scope and they go

15:25

fast. So they're really quite a

15:27

derivative biotech market but that is

15:29

also hurting biotech valuations in a

15:31

significant way.

15:32

>> How old are you?

15:33

>> I'm 58.

15:34

>> You're 58. You look great.

15:36

>> Thank you.

15:36

>> You look like 40. What do you want? Off

15:39

the menu. You

15:43

>> come on. You look great.

15:45

>> There's You got some off the menu stuff

15:46

going on. What do you got? You're on the

15:48

Wolverine. You want

15:51

It's actually an interesting question.

15:52

What is your lifestyle routine? Like, do

15:53

you supplement? Is there anything else?

15:54

I know. You have Brian Johnson coming.

15:56

Okay. I I follow him on on X. I'm not

15:59

doing the Brian Johnson.

16:00

>> He's the opposite of you. He looks like

16:02

he's dying.

16:03

>> You're handsome. That guy looks like

16:05

he's turning into a

16:06

>> You know, that's a vampire.

16:08

>> There's another Brian Johnson, the liver

16:10

king. I don't know if you ever follow.

16:11

>> Yeah. Both of these guys are taking it

16:12

too far. But but seriously, be

16:14

>> I get up early. I I work out. I read.

16:17

Okay.

16:17

>> Try to go to bed early.

16:18

>> Sleep is important.

16:19

>> Sleep. Okay. There's like four things in

16:21

life that I think really matter where

16:22

there's evidence. Sleep, eating healthy

16:24

foods, mostly plants, movement, and

16:26

social relationships. I think those are

16:28

the things that over time that's cuz I

16:31

got a meditation app. If you got a

16:33

feedback,

16:33

>> you tried to get me to do that. I

16:36

My wife tried I haven't tried yours. But

16:38

>> have you been motivated to try some of

16:40

these drugs prophylactically?

16:41

>> You know, I people ask me if I've used

16:43

the GOP one drugs use. I haven't. Um

16:47

yet is my answer because what's

16:50

happening as with all medicine

16:52

technologies you start with the sickest

16:53

the most extreme cases and you work your

16:55

way as you prove safety to general use.

16:58

I think what we're seeing now with the

17:02

broad benefits everything from metabolic

17:04

disease less drinking lower inflammation

17:08

uh our competitor Nova is going to read

17:09

out a study in a few months on dementia

17:12

risk. It probably won't be positive.

17:15

That's my guess. But it will probably be

17:16

in the right direction. So you have

17:18

these sort of general what scientists

17:19

would say pleotropic effect like

17:21

broad-based positive things.

17:23

>> I think we're going to get to a point

17:25

where taking pretty low doses for most

17:27

people say over 60 58 is not a terrible

17:31

idea and may help you live longer.

17:34

>> I just want to follow up on this one

17:35

specifically. Um these peptides are

17:38

becoming quite the rage in the

17:40

biohacking space. Have you been tracking

17:42

the Wolverine Protocol, BPC 157, and the

17:45

tremendous impact people are reporting

17:47

from it?

17:48

>> There's lots of communities like this

17:50

trying different things. We don't ever

17:51

recommend that because we live in a

17:53

world of clinical studies and FDA

17:54

approvals,

17:55

>> but you watch it,

17:56

>> of course. Yeah.

17:57

>> And what do you think of those

17:58

specifically?

17:59

>> I are you pursuing them? There are broad

18:03

well we're pursuing them in the path we

18:04

do which is taking those disease states

18:07

or people with the pre- disease state

18:08

like pre-diabetes and then we study it

18:11

and we prove an outcome. So we did that

18:13

with MARO and showed a 93% reduction in

18:16

conversion from pre-diabetes to

18:17

diabetes. That's kind of how we work is

18:19

like slicing the medical stack. These

18:21

guys are coming at it the other way

18:23

which is sort of saying I'm already

18:25

healthy. Can I generally stay healthier

18:28

uh with small doses or other regimens,

18:31

supplements? That's not our game, but we

18:33

watch it.

18:33

>> There's a handful of drugs that I would

18:35

say are epidemically prescribed in

18:38

America. Probably at the top of the list

18:39

would be SSRIs and anti-depressants.

18:41

>> Yeah.

18:42

>> And there's a lot of anecdotal evidence

18:45

that GLPS and this class of drug

18:48

actually is quite helpful with just the

18:50

psychological

18:52

>> health of an individual. Um can you talk

18:55

to us about that? Like what's ongoing?

18:57

What is a readout that you think could

18:59

be transformational in that space?

19:01

>> Yeah, so this is interesting. I mean

19:03

sometimes we engineer a medicine to do

19:06

something like we did GLP GIP towards

19:08

appetite to reduce body weight, lower

19:10

blood sugar and lipids and then

19:12

sometimes along the way you discover an

19:13

effect you didn't predict. So one of

19:15

those is like smoking sensation. When we

19:17

started doing these studies at scale it

19:19

was immediately obvious people stopped

19:21

smoking. Like a lot of people stop

19:23

smoking. also gambling and

19:24

>> gambling and online shopping all kinds

19:26

of

19:27

>> this is why on it because he was stuck

19:29

in the game

19:31

>> poker's not gambling but go on

19:32

>> so any anyway

19:33

>> I was talking about craps

19:35

>> so then there have been reports and

19:37

there's a big VA study that read out and

19:39

we know our veterans suffer from a lot

19:40

of mental health yeah and there were

19:42

pretty dramatic reductions for those

19:43

that were using GOP1s who had diabetes

19:46

so we are now right now starting studies

19:49

in bipolar disorder and major depressive

19:51

disorder along with these addictive

19:53

hedonic pathways where you're sort of

19:55

self-medicating

19:57

um with a new GOP1 a different one that

20:00

probably that has a little less weight

20:02

loss but a little more brain activity

20:04

>> really

20:05

>> so dialed in for these uses so we'll get

20:07

that drug in three or four years if it

20:09

works and I think it could really change

20:11

some of these terrible mental health

20:12

conditions

20:13

>> well can you take a step back maybe and

20:15

jump off from SSRIs

20:17

give us a description of the landscape

20:19

of the American human health the ma the

20:21

maha movement

20:23

you know what Bobby and his team are now

20:25

doing at HHS.

20:26

>> Yeah. Long overdue. I mean, I think the

20:28

the food system in particular um I

20:32

you're working on this, but could be

20:34

changed in a much more positive way. I

20:36

think we are the the least healthy

20:38

metabolic big country and probably the

20:41

reason for that is the food we feed

20:42

ourselves. processed food chemicals,

20:45

>> highly processed food chemicals. This

20:47

whole carb thing that went on for 30

20:49

years, which was has been totally

20:51

debunked and uh food companies have a

20:54

lot of influence and they've

20:55

>> you're saying the anti-carb the low carb

20:57

or no carb thing,

20:58

>> the the anti-fat, high carb diets, which

21:02

we were feeding people for 30 years, and

21:05

I think most people don't believe in

21:06

that anymore, but it led to a big part

21:08

of the obesity curve, glycemic index

21:10

kind of thing. So, I I'm all for all

21:13

that and I think we should reform that

21:15

and find ways to make quality food

21:17

cheaper and more accessible for many

21:18

people Kennedy. You like that he's

21:20

shaking it up. It's a big part of Bobby

21:22

Kennedy. I think that part I think we we

21:24

have a lot of alignment on. I worry

21:26

about um I'm all for skepticism of

21:30

science. That's what scientific process

21:31

is is questioning and challenging. I

21:33

worry about some of the stuff going on

21:35

with vaccines right now. Uh because I

21:37

don't see why we're making the asking

21:39

these questions. But it's okay to ask

21:41

them. But if we restrict access while

21:43

we're asking them, I worry about that.

21:46

Can that hasn't really affected the

21:47

medicine world. We don't make vaccines.

21:49

But um at least recently we have.

21:51

>> Let me ask you a hard question.

21:52

>> Yeah.

21:52

>> Um the mainstream media in many cases

21:57

make 25 50% of their revenue off of

22:00

advertising from companies like yours.

22:03

>> Yes.

22:04

>> We allow you to advertise. Should we

22:07

allow you to advertise? And have you

22:09

captured that mainstream media? Is that

22:12

the intent when Anderson Cooper makes

22:13

double digits of his money from your

22:16

firms?

22:17

>> Uh well, I would be for a system where

22:20

we don't have nearly as much drug

22:22

advertising

22:23

>> to be clear. Yeah. Yeah.

22:25

>> Well, that that's paradoxical. How do

22:27

you then you just want to rise and fall

22:29

based on your reputation?

22:30

>> Mutually assured destruction, right?

22:32

People the ads annoy people. They're

22:34

poorly constructed. Why? Because of

22:36

regulation built, believe it or not. If

22:38

you read the regulation, 1992 FDA

22:41

published a regulation on advertising

22:42

built for magazine print advertisements.

22:44

Yes. And now we have to follow that

22:46

regulation for TV advertisements, which

22:48

is why you have the scrolling side

22:50

effects as if they were printed on the

22:51

back of the ad. That's literally how

22:53

we're here. So the ads are poor. They

22:55

don't represent the patients we're

22:57

serving, etc. By the way, more than half

22:59

of our consumer spending to reach

23:02

consumers is not on TV.

23:04

>> So already the technology does work for

23:06

you. Does it move the needle when you do

23:07

a big ad buy

23:08

>> there? It does unfortunately. Um that's

23:11

why people keep doing it. Uh of course

23:13

the the productivity of that is debased

23:15

when your competitor does it but then

23:17

you're then everyone wants to go up

23:18

above the

23:19

>> prisoners dilemma. Yeah.

23:20

>> A little bit. So um I would be for a

23:22

system where that got reduced. There's

23:24

been a lot of legal actions that said

23:26

that that were fought over this through

23:28

the years and it's pretty clear under

23:29

first amendment we can do it. It's hard

23:31

to regulate. There's been some efforts

23:33

in Congress to tax it differently. I'm

23:35

okay with that. Yeah, it doesn't move my

23:37

needle at all.

23:38

>> You'd rather see that money go into R&D.

23:39

I would suspect

23:57

>> Yeah. You're not going to know what

23:58

what's available off the sh, you know,

24:00

on the doctor's shelf to you without any

24:02

sort of knowledge or information. Truth

24:04

is most primary care doctors are way too

24:06

busy right

24:06

>> to even attend a continuing education

24:09

even know what's happening

24:11

people what what do you think of people

24:13

using chat GPT and large language models

24:16

to do their research and then they come

24:18

to their doctors sometimes with much

24:20

deeper research than the doctor's aware

24:22

of. Is this a plus or a minus? Do you

24:24

trust it? Do you do it yourself?

24:26

>> I think it's a huge plus I would say and

24:28

I do do it myself. I also do it just to

24:31

see what the different models are

24:33

producing about our drugs. Yeah, it's

24:34

like an audit. Um, but mostly it's

24:37

accurate and um, they've it's gotten

24:39

better over the last two years. I'd say

24:41

substantially better. And many,

24:42

including Google, to their credit, have

24:44

a

24:45

>> like a way to sort of uh, click through

24:47

and check the facts directly, which is a

24:49

useful thing. They've served that up a

24:51

little more proactively. That's good.

24:53

>> Poor consumers owning their health and

24:55

for more information.

24:56

>> Do do you work directly with them? Do

24:57

you have an arm that will go to Grock,

24:59

go to Gemini and say, "Hey, we did these

25:02

searches. Here's some things you need to

25:03

improve."

25:04

>> So, we've pointed things out when there

25:06

are mistakes. It does feel a little bit

25:08

like we're lobbing into a black hole.

25:10

>> Um, and maybe that's a capacity issue on

25:12

their end, or maybe it's a they're

25:14

taking the point of view that our

25:16

model's just trained on the internet,

25:18

>> the corpus of information on Reddit.

25:20

>> Yeah. Yeah. Right. And it is what it is.

25:22

We don't want to own

25:23

>> the bastion of intellectual.

25:26

Yeah. We don't want to own the outcome

25:27

of that.

25:28

>> Before we run out of time, I just want

25:29

to get your view on um uh research

25:32

funding in this country. The NIH uh

25:35

budget uh cuts have been that have been

25:37

proposed. How what will the follow-on

25:39

effects be? Are these cuts going to be

25:42

to low ROI research programs that

25:45

ultimately wouldn't have translated into

25:47

the clinic and and into improving lives?

25:50

or are you worried about NIH funding

25:52

cuts and what they're going to do to the

25:55

pipeline of therapeutics in America?

25:57

When will we realize the effects of

25:59

that?

25:59

>> Yeah, great question. I don't think

26:01

anyone knows the answers to those. It's

26:03

not obvious. Let me put it that way. No

26:06

doubt that the NIH over its history has

26:09

done some landmark things that no market

26:11

could do. And I'm for more of that.

26:15

mapping the human genome, a mega project

26:18

that could only be done by government

26:20

and undoubtedly produced a ton of good

26:22

and economic value for the country. Um,

26:26

I think if you look at the first of all,

26:28

NIH total budget is a little over $40

26:30

billion.

26:32

Most of that is extra mural. They're

26:34

granting that to institutions in very in

26:36

smaller checks, sometimes very small

26:38

checks. I personally kind of wonder what

26:42

the impact of that. Is it sort of a VC

26:44

model where we spread a ton of bets and

26:46

a few of those will bloom into giant

26:48

successes or is it just sort of filtered

26:50

out without a strategy? I I think that's

26:52

a question that should be asked and

26:55

maybe Jay's asking that. Um I think the

26:58

other problem with the NH granting is as

27:00

you do that like any government

27:02

mechanism it gets influenced by the

27:05

people who are making the grants. Who

27:06

are those people? People receiving

27:08

grants. M

27:09

>> so there was a little bit of a

27:11

backscratching

27:12

uh issue here and I think exposing some

27:16

sunshine onto that to you know sort of

27:18

say what is that process is it truly

27:20

competitive and is it truly pursuing

27:23

ideas that the market can't solve itself

27:26

>> and should it be done at universities

27:27

let me just ask you this are

27:29

universities the right research

27:30

institutions today and going forward

27:32

we've got two university leads tomorrow

27:34

that we're going to have a conversation

27:36

with about this topic amongst others but

27:38

what's your you when you look around the

27:39

world at how research is done xus what's

27:43

the right what's a what's a what's the

27:44

right model is this the right model

27:46

>> I probably too much that way I'm on the

27:49

board of an R1 university so I have to

27:51

I'm a little biased maybe myself but I

27:53

think a lot of good things have happened

27:54

in universities but we should not

27:57

exclude that to other applicants I I

27:59

think there could be a place for other

28:01

participants

28:02

>> Dave um tomorrow we're going to have

28:04

Mark Cuban

28:05

>> yeah great

28:06

>> and we're going to talk about PBMs

28:07

>> yeah And one of the big

28:09

>> he's on fire.

28:10

>> Well, one of the big boogeymen in

28:11

healthcare are these PBMs. Can you just

28:13

explain, you know, quickly 30 seconds.

28:15

What do they do? And what's your view on

28:17

whether they should even exist in

28:19

American healthcare?

28:21

>> Probably we're at the end of that S

28:22

cycle and we should get to something

28:24

else. We actually owned a PBM in the

28:26

'90s. Why do they exist? Two reasons. To

28:29

match up claims. So you can go into any

28:31

pharmacy in the country with a card that

28:33

says here's my benefit and that benefit

28:35

can be adjudicated to you. That was a

28:37

big IT problem in 1993. It's not really

28:39

a big IT problem now. And there's dozens

28:41

of these so-called transparent or light

28:44

PBMs. Actually, our company is moving to

28:46

one off of one of the mainline ones

28:48

because it's in our business interest,

28:50

but also their service is better. The

28:51

other thing is negotiate like bulk

28:53

discounts. So, gather up a bunch of

28:55

employers or plans, go to the drug

28:56

companies, get a lower deal. I think

28:58

that's fine. I'm for that, too. What

29:00

happened is you know the like any uh

29:05

consolidated terminal state of an

29:06

industry what's the term the inification

29:09

of their service is they just they just

29:11

become so every every action they make

29:14

is about their benefit not the customer

29:16

and that's what's happened that's why

29:18

everybody hates them

29:19

>> s

29:21

kind of came out of nowhere as this big

29:22

category what if you had to guess what

29:26

do you think the next big surprise

29:27

category would be that we're not

29:29

thinking out.

29:29

>> It's hard to predict that, but I would

29:31

say probably a brain disease. I think if

29:33

you look at human suffering globally,

29:35

40% is brain diseases. And it's so broad

29:38

we we could spend a whole panel talking

29:40

about them. Um, and what we've had so

29:43

far has not worked. You know, when

29:45

Bobby's raising the question, why do we

29:46

have so much autism? That's a great

29:48

question. What's causing it? Depression

29:49

rates despite the advent of I we

29:52

invented Prozac, so many drugs. People

29:54

are aided, but it's not solvent. We

29:56

still have lots of depression in this

29:57

country and maybe it's growing in youth.

29:59

So these are huge problems as our

30:01

population ages dementia and brain you

30:04

know these. So I'd bet there part of

30:06

what we try to do is allocate capital

30:08

into spaces where there are no drugs

30:11

hoping you know to hit hit the dart

30:13

board where there isn't a competitor.

30:15

That's how we got obesity drugs. We're

30:17

working on that but it'll be hard to

30:19

it's hard to predict.

30:20

>> Ladies and gentlemen, please thank you

30:22

David. Take a break.

30:23

>> Thanks bro. Great to see you. Yeah, I'll

30:26

be I'll get ready. Good to see you,

30:28

baby. Yeah. Thanks, baby. Appreciate it.

30:31

Congratulations, my man. I appreciate

30:33

you. Appreciate it. Take care.

Interactive Summary

The video features an interview with Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks, discussing the rise of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss and their impact on global health. Ricks explores the company's long-term R&D process, the challenges of scaling production, the issue of counterfeit drugs, and the moral responsibilities regarding pricing. Additionally, he highlights future potential for these drugs in mental health and addiction, while reflecting on the current state of biotech, NIH funding, and the American healthcare system, including the controversial role of Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs).

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